1000
Nominal Dollars
100
10
1
1926
1936
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
0.1 Year
Large Company Stocks Long-Term Government Bonds Treasury Bills
Historical Record of Returns & Risk
40.00%
Total Return
20.00%
0.00%
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
-20.00%
-40.00%
-60.00% Year
Annual Returns U.S. Treasury Bills
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
Total Return
0.00%
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
-20.00%
-40.00%
-60.00%
Year
Basic Idea of Risk & Return
Greater spread in average returns implies
greater risk
E( r ) Pr{r x }x
all x
Measuring Risk
To measure risk use the standard deviation
of its possible returns!
Variance = Average value of squared deviations
from the mean:
all x
0
5 10 15
Number of Securities
Unique & Market Risk
Portfolio standard deviation
Diversifiable
risk
Market risk
0
5 10 15
Number of Securities
Determining Risk Premium
What causes one asset to have a larger risk
premium than another asset?
Say you are a diversified investor and hold the market portfolio.
Then the beta of an asset tells you how adding a bit more of the
asset would affect the overall risk of your portfolio
im
i 2
m
im
i 2
m
Covariance of stock i
return with market return
im im i m
i 1
i i
i = beta of stock i
Interpreting Beta Coefficient
E( ri ) r f E( rm ) r f i
E( ri ) r f E( rm ) r f i
E( ri ) r f E( rm ) r f i
Risk Premium E( rm ) r f i
0.08 1.2 9.6%
Expected Return r f E( rm ) r f i
0.05 0.08 1.2
5% 9.6% 14.6%
Calculating rf and Market Premium
How do we calculate beta, the risk-free rate and
the expected market premium?
Risk-free rate is generally measured using the rate
for U.S. Treasuries
Expected market premium = average historical
return of the market (i.e. S&P 500) over risk-free rate
E[ri ] rf i E rm rf
E[ri ] (1 i )rf i E rm
E( ri ) r f E( rm ) r f i
In Next Class
Learn how to calculate cost of capital for
entire firm using CAPM and other tools