11/8/2016 2066historyexam:Thegreatpowerssabotagedglobalprosperity

Globalpolitics AddtomyFT

2066historyexam:Thegreatpowerssabotagedglobalprosperity
TheworstfollywascommittedbytheAmericanpeople,writesThomasWright

AndrewBaker

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NOVEMBER1,2016by:ThomasWright

ThisessaywaswritteninresponsetoGideonRachmansinvitationtoreaderstosithis
2066historyexam.Of170entries,theFTispublishingthebestfive(seepanelforthe
others).Thispieceaddressesthequestion:Whydidtheendofhistoryonlylastfor20
years?

Themostpowerfulforeignpolicyinstrumentof
SampletheFTs the1990sand2000swasnotaweaponora
topstoriesfora diplomaticalliance.Itwasanidea.Likeall
week powerfulideas,thisonewassimple:toachieve
Youselectthetopic,wedeliverthe economicsuccess,nationswouldliberaliseand
news. becomemoreresponsiblemembersofan
internationalcommunity.Anditcametopass.
Selecttopic
For20years,theworldconvergedonasingle
Enteremailaddress modelofliberalorderwithunprecedented
prosperityandgreatpowercooperation.

Thegreathistoricalpuzzleofthe21stcenturyis
whytheworldsgreatpowerssimultaneously,
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11/8/2016 2066historyexam:Thegreatpowerssabotagedglobalprosperity

Signup andalmostgleefully,torethisorderapartand
usheredinanewageofrivalry,protectionism
Bysigningupyouconfirmthatyouhave
readandagreetothetermsand andlimitedwar,inwhichtheywereallmuch
conditions,cookiepolicyandprivacy worseoff.Whydidtheendofhistoryas
policy.
FrancisFukuyama,thena37yearold
researcheratRandCorporation,termedit
cometoanend?

Theanswercanbefoundhidinginplainsightintheprescientfinalchapterof
FukuyamasbookTheEndofHistoryandTheLastMan.Mankind,hewrote,was
destinedtostruggle.Ifmencouldnotstruggleonbehalfofajustcausebecauseitwas
victoriousinapreviousgeneration,thentheywillstruggleagainstthejustcause.They
wouldrebelagainstpeaceandprosperity,andagainstdemocracy.

Andthisisindeedwhathappened.Themajor
ReadersEssays
powersallbenefitedfromtheageof
2066HistoryExam convergence.Yettheydeliberatelybroughtitto
GideonRachman:Answersfrom anend.
thefuture
ConsiderChina.Itsgrossdomesticproduct
PhilippKeller:Thepoeticjustice grewfrom$413bnin1991to$7.5tnin2011,by
ofmathsmanglinghumans whichtimeitwastheworldssecondstrongest
PaulKnott:Putinleftposttruth power.Chinacouldhavecooperatedwiththe
politicsandchaos UStostabiliseitswesternflank.Butinstead,
JeremyShapiro:IvankaTrump chairmanXiJinpingchosetoconquerthe
aspresidentlogical,really SouthChinaSea.Hegainedmanyuninhabited
rocksbutbeganaregionalcoldwarthat
SamWilkin:Howthemedia
usheredintwodecadesofdeglobalisation,
polarisedmajorparties
stagnationandultimatelyrevolution.

Russiawasalsowellpositionedin2011.Tsar
VladimirPutinhadretreatedintotheshadowsoftheprimeministersofficeandwas
consideringretirement.Russiasleader,DmitryMedvedev,wasacutelyawareofthe
needforfarreachingeconomicreform.RussiahadgoodrelationswiththeUSandeven
supportedanAmericanmilitaryinterventioninLibya.Itwasnotyetboggeddowninits
20yearmilitarycampaigninSyriaandthethreedaytacticalnuclearexchangewiththe
USovertheBalticswasstilleightyearsaway.

MrPutinreturnedtopowerin2012andfearedeconomicreformandpolitical
liberalisationwouldweakenhisholdonpower.HeralliedtheRussianpeopletostruggle
againsttheUSledorderandacceptthepriceofeconomichardship.Russiawasrarely
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11/8/2016 2066historyexam:Thegreatpowerssabotagedglobalprosperity

outofthenewsinthe2010sand2020sbutitsdeclinewasinexorable,whichmadeits
dismembermentinevitable.

Theeastssabotageoftheageofconvergencemaybeunderstandable.RussiaandChina
werealwaysoutsiders.Buttherealmysteryiswhathappenedinthewest.Itshouldhave
beenitsfinesthour.WorkingwithChina,theUSandEuropeavoidedaGreat
Depressionafterthefinancialcrisisof2008,whichinitiallysurpassed1929inits
severity.Therecessionwasmilderthanthatofthe1930sandwithinafewyears,growth
returnedandemploymentbegantorise.Inoneofhistorysgreatironies,politicstooka
toxicturnevenastherecoverytookhold.

TheEUfailedtointroduceadequatefiscalandfinancialreforms,leavingitdefenceless
whenthenexteconomiccrisisarrivedlikeclockworkin2018(followingtheeastAsian
crisisof1997andthefinancialcrisisof2008).BritainvotedtoexittheEUin2016with
noclearplanastoitsfutureglobalrole.Thenegotiationsdraggedonformorethana
decade,duringwhichLondonsfinancialsectorwashollowedoutandtheUKeconomy
declinedinabsoluteterms.

Nofollywasasgreat,though,asthatcommittedbythepeopleoftheUS.Nonationin
historyenjoyedsuchpower,prosperityandinfluence.YetAmericansconvinced
themselvesthattheywerebeingrippedoffbytherestoftheworldsotheybeganto
withdraw.ThefirstinklingsofretrenchmentoccurredintheMiddleEastafterthefailed
popularrevolutiontheArabSpringof2011.DonaldTrumpwaselectedpresident
onawaveofnationalistsentimentandhequicklysuspendedallUSsecurityguarantees
inEuropeandeastAsia.Bythetimehewasimpeached200dayslater(onedayforeach
$1mofhisnetworth),theUSledorderlayinruins.PresidentMikePencecobbled
togetheranewversionofNatobutthiscollapsedafterRussiatesteditin2019.

Inthe1990sand2000s,theworldbenefitedfromthepositivenetworkeffectsof
integration.Progressononefront(economicprosperity)ledtoprogressinanother(co
operationofthegreatpowers).Theunravellingputtheseintoreversewithterrifying
negativesynergiesbetweendisorderintheMiddleEast,Russianaggression,anti
globalisationsentimentandAmericannationalism.

Theunderlyingcausewasbanalandinherentlyhuman.Somepeoplegrewboredofthe
statusquoandenoughwentalongbecausetheycouldnotcomprehendaworse
alternative.Passionsovercameinterests.Andnotforthefirsttime.Approximatelya
centurybefore,Europeannationscelebratedtheendofacenturyofpeaceandmarched
enthusiasticallyofftowhatwasthenthemostdevastatingwarinhistory.Follymayjust
beapartofwhoweare.

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11/8/2016 2066historyexam:Thegreatpowerssabotagedglobalprosperity

ThewriterisafellowattheBrookingsInstitution

CopyrightTheFinancialTimesLimited2016.Allrightsreserved.Youmayshareusingour
articletools.Pleasedon'tcutarticlesfromFT.comandredistributebyemailorposttothe
web.

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