Monica Trujillo
Amado Ordonez
Rafael Hernandez
Oxfam
First published by Oxfam GB in 2000
Oxfam GB 2000
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Preface 7 Tables
Remittances from Salvadorans in the USA and
1 Introduction 10 aid from the USA 20
Areas of priority for emergency work 22
Background 10
Hurricanes and damage caused across the
Methodology 10
region 26
Physical characteristics of the region 11
Poverty in Mexico and Central America 32
Outline of contents 11
Families headed by women 33
Women's earnings as a proportion of men's
2 Assessment of threats and risks 13
earnings, and corresponding levels of
Identification and analysis of threats 13 illiteracy 33
A typology of natural threats 14 Proportion of the population of Central
Risk of threats caused by human agency 19 America living in poverty 34
Evaluation and levels of risks 22 Hygiene and living conditions 35
9 Rates of infant and maternal mortality 36
3 Assessment of vulnerability 27 10 Causes of infant mortality 36
Technical focus on vulnerability 27 11 Health services in the region 37
Political focus on vulnerability 28 _ 12 Dietary and nutritional conditions 37
Social focus on vulnerability 30 13 Vulnerability among Mexican women 39
A regional view of social vulnerability 30 14 Vulnerability among Guatemalan women 46
A country-by-country view of social 15 Vulnerability among women in Guatemala
vulnerability 30 (by region) 46
16 Vulnerability among Nicaraguan women 48
17
4 Assessment of local capacity 51 Involvement of women in social organisations
The institutional framework 51 in Nicaragua 49
18 National capacity for emergency response in
Disasters and civil society 56
the region 55
Relevant actors and initiatives in the region 58 19 Building codes for high-risk areas 62
The following people were involved in this The original report was published by Oxfam in
exercise: two consultants from Mexico and Nicaragua in 1999 under the title Mapeo tie
Central America; a specialist from the Riesgos y Vulnerabilidad en Centroamerica y
Emergencies Department of Oxfam GB, and Mexico: Estudio de capacidades locales para
staff from Oxfam's offices in the region. trabajar en situaciones de emergencia (copies
Leaders of indigenous, campesino, and women's available free of charge from Oxfam Regional
organisations in the region contributed Office, Altamira D. Este, Casa 322 y 323,
their knowledge and grassroots experience Managua, email: oxfam@oxcamex.org.ni). It
during the visits to high-risk communities. was translated from Spanish by Sophie Bond,
Representatives from a range of government Caroline Fox, and Claire Idle. It was edited
bodies and civil-society organisations also and adapted for publication as an Oxfam
participated as interviewees. Working Paper by Deborah Eade.
Abbreviations and acronyms
6
Preface
In March 1997 a multidisciplinary team was Casitas Volcano. The resulting losses of the two
commissioned by Oxfam GB to identify the risks disasters combined were estimated at US$1,500
of disasters whether of natural origin or human million, a significant amount for such a fragile
agency throughout Mexico and Central economy. Guatemala and El Salvador suffered
America. Their findings, reported in this less damage overall, though the effects were no
Working Paper, demonstrated the urgent need to less serious for the people involved: in El
find ways to reduce the degree of vulnerability Salvador there were some 85,000 victims, and in
faced by many urban and rural communities in Guatemala up to 100,000 people had to be
the region. It was initially hoped that it would be evacuated from their homes. The most severely
possible to set out the framework for a Disaster affected regions were those that had been
Preparedness Plan which, along with the identified in the Oxfam study as high-risk areas,
development programmes that Oxfam GB was hit by land-slides in Tegucigalpa and fierce
supporting, would help to articulate the research floods in the River Coco and the Sula valley, to
team's vision of reshaping and uniting emergency name but a few. The longer-term consequences
relief with rehabilitation and development of Mitch have included the outbreak of rat-borne
activities. disease in Nicaragua, resulting from contam-
inated and damaged sanitation systems and
No one imagined then that the El Nino exacerbated by inadequate public health
phenomenon, which brought drought to provision something highlighted in the study.
southern Honduras and western Nicaragua and
contributed to the region's greatest recorded loss This comprehensive review of the threats
of woodland through forest fires, would and risks of disasters across the region is thus
eventually result in the biggest environmental particularly pertinent. Its focus on the links
catastrophe in recent years; or that this in turn between socio-economic realities, policies, and
would lead to the serious questioning of social and the dynamics of planning in a context where
economic policies which have been so detrimental the limits of vulnerability are essentially a
to huge numbers of people, particularly human responsibility is perhaps one of its most
important contributions. The maps showing
indigenous communities, women, and children.
the regional patterns of risk and vulnerability
But the fact is that Hurricane Mitch, which
enable us to appreciate the importance of risk
devastated Central America in November 1998,
management in order to reduce vulnerability
was not only what the 1999 World Disasters Report
and insecurity and achieve sustainable
terms 'a super-disaster'1 the third-strongest
development.
hurricane of the centurybut also an occurrence
which magnified the already severe degrees of The methodology adopted in the study allows
poverty and vulnerability in the region. one to map out and evaluate the threats and
risks of various kinds of disaster in the region,
Mitch, which brought to Central America a and can be adapted for use in other settings. The
whole year's rainfall in a few hours, affected the risk of exposure to phenomena such as
lives of six million people. Between 10,000 and hurricanes, seismic and volcanic activity, floods,
15,000 people lost their lives and 2.5 million landslides, tidal waves, and droughts is widely
became temporarily dependent upon aid. In recognised; likewise risks and threats that are
Honduras, up to 70 per cent of export crops political in nature, such as the armed conflicts
were lost. Eighty per cent of the country's that engulfed much of the region from the
aqueducts were damaged and thousands of 1970s until very recently. Conflicts and social
public and domestic sanitation facilities were unres,t were themselves linked to the
ruined: some 100,000 latrines were destroyed in widespread insecurity, and these links are
the capital alone. In Nicaragua, thousands lost explored in the study. Other risks are linked to
their lives; in addition, five villages were buried the environmental crisis, whose effects may be
in the debris produced by the eruption of the irreversible and may in turn provoke major
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
disasters. Examples include the extensive pressures and environmental sustainability. Both
deforestation of the region, the reduction of involved crucial issues such as local development,
water resources, and solid-waste contamination. decentralisation, transparency, good governance and
Perhaps the most surprising elements of the institution-building ... We look to donors and
study, however, concern its depiction of international financial institutions to continue their
vulnerability on a regional scale. Social, political, support and to do their utmost for more and quicker
and economic realities are intimately linked to the debt relief. And we look to the United Nations family to
factors that make people more or less vulnerable assist governments in ensuring that preparations are
to risks and threats. In diis regard, the need for in place for the next hurricane season; and to help the
ordinary women and men to be empowered countries of the region establish more just societies.2
through enabling them to participate in making
decisions concerning their vulnerability is Less than six months after this statement,
accorded a greater importance than technical however, seasonal tropical depressions caused
considerations. For social vulnerability affects torrential rains in parts of Mexico, resulting in
people's living conditions at the local and even the mudslides and floods that killed 400 people and
individual or household levels, while these left more than 200,000 homeless in the poorer
conditions relate to the resources available to a and more precarious districts of Puebla and
given community and the extent to which they are Veracruz. The country's civil protection and
excluded and marginalised by macro-economic emergency-response systems were the subject of
and social policies. much public criticism.
In terms of its far-reaching recommendations
As in development work, it is important to
concerning the links between development,
differentiate between the vulnerabilities of men
vulnerability, and emergencies and the
and women, and not fall into the trap of
implications for aid and co-operation
developing emergency responses or disaster-
programmes the risk-mapping exercise
preparedness plans that do not take these
represents far more than a report that merely
differences into account. The study draws
says who does what and with whom in disaster
particular attention to the implications of female
situations. Within Oxfam GB, the overall
poverty in the region, the huge number of
mapping methodology, with its focus on the
women-maintained households, women's poor
regional as well as the local level, has enabled us
health and nutritional status, the low level of
to target the high-priority areas in terms of their
female participation in civil society, and other
vulnerability to risk and threat. To achieve this,
factors that will intensify their vulnerability in
we have given top priority to strengthening local
emergency situations.
capacities and to re-thinking our assumptions
The study shows the critical importance of about how to address or pre-empt emergencies
seeing emergency relief and development work through an approach to development which
as intimately linked with each other, and not as incorporates participation, but which is also
mutually exclusive. This means that any efforts, aware of the need to differentiate between the
at whatever level, to develop social and economic various roles of key actors such as the state and
policies should be committed to reducing civil society.
vulnerability as well as to involving community
As the incidence of natural disasters world-
structures in local-level disaster management.
wide is increasing, while the structural risks
One of the main lessons from the Mitch disaster
posed by armed conflict, environmental
is that of the need to move towards a culture of
degradation, and pollution show little sign of
disaster preparedness in every sphere, and to
abating, it is both a great responsibility and an
create living conditions and promote sustainable
opportunity for international NGOs to foster a
development methods that help to reduce
culture of disaster preparedness in which
vulnerability. In the words of UN Secretary-
preparedness management is seen to be
General Kofi Annan, speaking at the May 1999
accorded the same priority as other needs and
donors' meeting in Stockholm:
challenges in development, and which thus aims
The unfinished political and human rights agendas of to minimise the vulnerability of the millions of
the peace process, and the reconstruction agenda people who are marginalised and socially
following the loss of life, devastation and ruin brought excluded in Central America and elsewhere.
on by Hurricane Mitch ... are compatible, mutually
reinforcing agendas. The two agendas peace and Adolfo Castrillo
reconstruction both address pivotal questions (Former Deputy Regional Representative for Central
relating to poverty, social inequity, population America and Mexico, Oxfam GB)
8
Preface
Notes
1 The World Disasters Report 1999 was published
by the International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies. It stated that
natural disasters tripled in the 1990s
compared with the 1960s, with more than
700 'large-loss' catastrophes occurring in
1998 alone.
2 Quoted in Go-Between 76, August-September
1999, p.27.
1 Introduction
10
Introduction
The threats to be studied were selected on the general, wealth is highly concentrated among
basis of the most frequent events or disasters in the small, prosperous minorities who co-exist with a
region, though some were included because of the marginalised and growing majority who live in
severity of their impact, rather than because of extreme poverty. A fairly uniform economic
their frequency. The scenarios were those most structural adjustment-model has been applied
likely to occur in Mexico and Central America, in throughout the region over the last decade.
order to provide a comprehensive view of the Although this has led to an apparent improve-
region, and the threat or risk of disasters, whether ment in macro-economic performance, there has
natural or of human agency. Qualitative and also been rising unemployment, a depression in
quantitative indicators were established. The first agricultural production (principally affecting
phase of the study sought to validate the method- campesino [peasant] producers and the indigenous
ology by testing it against a range of diverse and peoples), and a widening gap between rich and
complex realities. Adjustments were subsequently poor.
made to take account of the fact that it was not The structural adjustment packages have also
possible to consult as many people in the region as resulted in widespread cuts in basic services in the
had been hoped, and because not all the areas of health-care services, education, welfare
information we had expected to be available was services, and housing. Deepening poverty and
accessible; hence we had to make use of some old widespread social exclusion have frequently
data and also abandon some of the proposed resulted in the population of whole areas being
indicators. Despite these constraints, we none the marginalised. The most deprived areas and social
less achieved a fairly accurate level of approx- sectors are also those most at risk from disasters of
imation in thefirstphase of the exercise. all kinds, a fact which in turn makes them more
vulnerable still.
With the exception of Costa Rica, all of the
countries in the region are now at a crucial point
Physical characteristics of the in their political history, in that they are all in an
region: an overview immediate post-war phase, or are currently
experiencing armed conflicts. The processes of
Five tectonic plates meet in the area covered by
setting up institutions and mechanisms for
Mexico and Central America, the movement
democratic participation are still in their
and interaction of which determine the
infancy. There is also great uncertainty,
extremely high seismic activity throughout the
generated by a high degree of economic and
region (principally along the Pacific coastline),
social polarisation, and popular distrust of
which causes frequent earthquakes and
public bodies and political parties which have
occasional tsunamis (tidal waves created by
proved- unable to rise above sectarianism,
quakes on the seabed). There is also an active
making it difficult to reach a consensus or to
chain of volcanoes right down the Pacific Strip,
prioritise national interests.
with the Tacana volcano actually linking Mexico
with the Central American isthmus. In addition,
four cyclogenetic zones are present in the Pacific
and the Atlantic ocean masses, in which there is Outline of contents
activity throughout the annual hurricane season The analysis of threats establishes the incidence
(June-November). and distribution of threats present in the region,
The prevailing climate patterns, together and the particularities of each country with
with ecological deterioration, are resulting in respect to probability, intensity, and area
irregular and changing rainfall patterns, which covered. The sectors and elements exposed to the
subject wide areas to a continuous fluctuation threat are then analysed, in particular the
between increasingly severe floods and threatened communities, agro-ecological
droughts. Other phenomena, such as conditions and the state of the economy,
earthquakes or tornadoes, affect only a limited infrastructure, and services (risk analysis). This
area, but have a significant impact. is followed by an analysis of vulnerability,
The region's economic structure is dependent defined as the relationship between the level of
on international markets and powers, with regard risk, local capacities, and the living conditions of
both to the sale of products (mainly agricultural) the threatened community. The level of
and the acquisition of raw materials and vulnerability can be modified according to
technology for the manufacture of basic goods. In certain trace indicators, including the capacity to
11
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
predict occurrences, communication systems, the An in-depth study of the current situation
capacity of health-care systems, general levels of formed part of the risk map, but is presented
education, and levels of disease. A risk map also only in summary form in this Working Paper
considers the wider factors that determine the since, by its very nature, such information is
conditions in which such communities live. liable to change in a relatively short time. The
The risk map undertakes an analysis of local focus here is on the capacity of institutions to
capacities, by considering firstly the tackle emergency situations in their different
institutional framework for the management of shapes and forms, identifying the strengths and
disasters, regionally, nationally, and locally. weaknesses of the key players in the region in
Secondly, it assesses current capacities from the the detection, diagnosis, planning, inter-
perspective of civil society. Finally, it considers vention, and evaluation of emergencies. This
initiatives for developing existing capacities, paper also considers emergencies in the context
and the principal actors who have a role to play of development and establishes immediate and
in this. It identifies steps already taken, and future challenges for work in the region.
current shortcomings in the fields of pre- The conclusions include an evaluation of
vention, preparedness, rehabilitation, and disasters in the region, assessing progress and
response; and then assesses these and shortcomings in the fields of prevention,
establishes a framework for future priorities. preparedness, mitigation, response, and
Factors that indicate specific capacities are, restoration. This final section attempts to
among others, those related to the management identify the principal players in the context of
of information regarding disasters: analysis and disasters in the region, and makes
evaluation of the context and environment, co- recommendations for likely scenarios.
ordination, and operational and management
plans for working in emergencies.
12
2 Assessment of threats and risks
13
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
of the workforce and jeopardising the very The frequency of these threats varies greatly.
existence of this body. Cyclones and storms, floods, landslides and
The activities of these institutions vary greatly drought occur every two to seven years.
in quality and quantity. They consist in the Tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions
production of basic and thematic maps, which occur every 15 to GO years, with some
show various phenomena and their respective exceptions, such as the Cerro Negro volcano in
risk zones. Projects range from those of Mexico Nicaragua and the Santa Maria (Santiaguito)
and Costa Rica, where an Atlas of Threats is volcano in Guatemala. Though the risk of
available (which in Costa Rica is integrated in a volcanic eruptions and earthquakes is often
modern geographic information system), to deemed secondary, in that the probability of
countries like Panama, where more specific their occurrence is small, the consequences of
initiatives are taking place in mapping the risks any such catastrophe are extremely serious: the
of volcanoes, earthquakes, and floods. One 1972 earthquake in Managua left 20,000 people
common problem is the scale of these risk- dead; the 1976 Guatemala earthquake claimed
mapping exercises. In Mexico, the 'risk atlas' is 26,000 lives; the 1985 earthquake in Mexico
on a scale that allows for an analysis of risks but killed between 10,000 and 20,000 people; and
not for possible emergency scenarios to be that in El Salvador in 1986 left 1,500 dead.
visualised. Equally, the content of the Central
American maps is general and on a very small
scale, which means that they cannot be used for
sensitive emergency operations.
A typology of natural threats
A significant gap across the region is the lack
of multi-phenomena analyses and maps. Hurricanes
Generally, phenomena are considered The hurricanes that affect the region originate
independently of each other (according to the in four principal zones: the Gulf of
specialism of the institutions carrying out the Tehuantepec, the Bay of Campeche, the
study). This does not allow for integrated Caribbean, and the Atlantic Region. They tend
analyses of risks and the relationships between to follow trajectories which are more or less well
them, though this would improve the work in defined, though sometimes erratic, and may or
the field of emergency prevention in a region may not hit dry land (see Map 1). In Mexico, the
where all types of threat are potentially present. areas most frequently affected by hurricanes are
For the purpose of the Oxfam risk-mapping, the on the Pacific Coast. Hurricanes originating
threats considered are those which cause the from near the Intertropical Convergence Zone
most significant damage in human, material, (which is close to Central America) will progress
and economic terms: hurricanes, floods, northwards and affect the Mexican coastal
drought, landslides, tsunamis, tidal waves, areas. The hurricane season runs from June to
volcanic eruptions, and, particularly in Mexico November, with most storms occurring in
and Guatemala, frosts and hailstorms. September and October.
In the case of tropical cyclones (storms and In Mexico, the probability of being directly
hurricanes), it is possible to identify the areas that affected by hurricanes is high, while in Central
are statistically most frequently affected. How- America it is relatively low, though the indirect
ever, cyclones may also affect areas not featuring effects are frequently experienced. The most
in the statistics, for example, Hurricanes Joan in exposed areas of Mexico experience more than
1988, Gilbert in 1993, and Cesar in 1996. It is five hurricanes per decade. In the worst-
difficult to show the precise areas at risk of affected areas of Central America the Atlantic
flooding and landslides in a study at this level, coastline of Honduras and Nicaragua the
though significant steps have been taken (see corresponding figure is between three and four,
Maps 2 and 3). Depending on the topography, while the values for Panama, Costa Rica, and El
coastline, and vegetation, floods and landslides Salvador are less than one.
are most likely to occur in the areas statistically Rapid urbanisation increases the potential for
most affected by cyclones and seismic phenom- damage caused by tropical cyclones. Four of the
ena. In general, the Adantic Coast is more northern states of Mexico are likely to be struck
susceptible to tropical storms andfloods,while the by hurricanes every two to four years,
Pacific Coast is more susceptible to earthquakes, threatening some four million people in 31
volcanic eruptions, and droughts. However, coastal towns. A further two million people in
cyclones affect both of Mexico's coastlines. another five states are exposed to the effects of
14
Assessment of threats and risks
cyclones striking every five to seven years in Central America has experienced several
another five states, and another four million large-scale earthquakes, some of which have
people in 176 towns are vulnerable across states occurred in the last 20 years, because the region
where hurricanes occur every eight to 26 years. forms a geological bridge between the Americas
In Central America, Nicaragua and Honduras and is rising as a consequence of the subduction
can expect 36 hurricanes or storms per century. of the Cocos plate under the Caribbean plate. It
In Nicaragua's Atlantic Coast, the corresponding is this interaction of plates which is responsible
number ranges from 6 in Bluefields to 36 in Cabo for the complexity of the geographical
Gracias a Dios, with approximately half a million phenomena causing such intense seismic
people at direct risk and a further 1.3 million activity, especially on the Pacific coast (though, as
people exposed to indirect risk. The situation is noted earlier, the Atlantic coast has not been
similar in Honduras, where three-quarters of the properly studied). Major seismic activity in the
country is affected by hurricanes, with the region occurs every 6-40 years, and secondary
northern coastline most directly exposed, placing activity occurs more frequently. In Guatemala
some 2.9 million people at risk. Guatemala also the four significant seismic zones cross a
experiences the indirect effects of tropical significant part of the surface area of the country
cyclones, especially those originating in the and are associated with the interaction of plates
western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche, to and internal geological faults. There is a
which some two million people are exposed. In probability of earthquakes with a magnitude of
densely populated El Salvador, and also in Costa 8.0 on the Richter scale occurring every 30 years,
Rica and Panama, the cyclones have other and a probability of earthquakes of 5.5-7.5
characteristics and are associated with high occurring every 1-15 years. Almost all of the
departments of Guatemala are thus exposed to
rainfall and flooding.
the threat of earthquakes, although they face
varying levels of risk. The areas most likely to be
Seismic activity affected are the Central Highlands (including
The region is in one of the zones of greatest the capital city) and the south coast, exposing
seismic activity in the world, as five tectonic approximately 6.5 million people to risk. The
plates interact within it: the Cocos, Pacific, area of second greatest risk is in the north-
North American, Caribbean, and Nazca. eastern region and part of the north-west.
Between the Pacific and North American plates Although the pattern of seismic activity is
a lateral slippage is occurring; between North fairly similar across the region, Honduras has
America and Cocos, one plate is being forced reported no related disasters, despite being
under the other (a phenomenon known as affected by the volcanically active areas of its
'subduction'). In both cases, significant tremors neighbours and despite the influence of major
are caused which affect the region's Pacific coast. fault lines in the country. This is doubtless why
Inland, the region is affected by continental, the subject has been studied so little in this
regional, and local fault lines. Among the most country. However, Honduras is not out of
important are the San Andreas Fault in Mexico, danger: at least 80 tremors have been recorded
which marks the border between the Pacific and in different parts of the country. Obviously,
North American plates; the Mesoamerican seismic activity in Honduras does not have the
Trench, which divides the North American and same implications as it does elsewhere, since the
Cocos plates (Mexico), and the Motagua-Polochic threats do not translate into significant risks.
Fault (Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras), The opposite is the case in El Salvador, where
which marks the movement of the Caribbean and strong seismic activity is caused by three
North American plates (see Map 1). significant seismogenetic sources: the Motagua
Mexico experiences major earthquakes every system of faults, the subduction of the Cocos
32 to 56 years, affecting 11 states and part of 14 plate, and the local system of faults. The last of
more. The central and southern areas are most these is highly dangerous, since it affects areas
likely to experience earthquakes of a magnitude where there are many weaknesses (non-
above 7.0 on the Richter scale, exposing some 60 compacted soil), occasioning frequent cracks in
million people to the phenomenon nationwide. rock faults that cause continuous seismic activity
In addition, the characteristics of the subsoil of right across the middle of the country. A chain of
Mexico City (where some 22 million people live) young and active volcanoes is connected by a
cause an approximately 400-fold amplification system of faults, making it even more dangerous,
in seismic waves, vastly increasing the risk there. and affecting large areas of the country,
15
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
including the metropolitan area around San In Mexico, the volcanic strip extends from
Salvador. Seismic activity affects practically the coast to coast around the 19N parallel, with a
whole of El Salvador, with some four million population estimated by the Secretaria de
people exposed, and occurs relatively frequently, Gobernacion at about 36 million inhabitants
with major earthquakes taking place at intervals living in the zone of influence, in 610 towns.
of between six and 20 years. Less significant The volcanic chain extends from the south of
tremors (<5 on the Richter scale) occur Mexico to the Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica,
practically every year, as they do in Guatemala. and then towards the west of Panama.
Significant seismic activity also occurs in CEPREDENAC has identified 582 volcanoes in
Nicaragua. The frequency and magnitude of the Central American region, with a total of 80
earthquakes here is similar to those of active ones, of which 25 are in Guatemala, 20
Guatemala and El Salvador, with seismic activity in El Salvador, 22 in Nicaragua, 11 in Costa
principally affecting the Pacific region, where Rica, and the rest in Panama and Honduras.
almost one-third of the population (1.4 million (While Honduras is not thought to be at risk,
people) is concentrated. The country is divided CEPREDENAC registers deep cores of potential
into four seismic zones, of which the most volcanoes ['focuses'] there.)
important runs from the Pacific Coast to the In Guatemala, the volcanoes are located on a
central volcanic chain, where there is a high risk high plateau rising to more than 4,000 metres,
of quakes measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale. while in Nicaragua and El Salvador they jut out
This area includes important cities such as Leon, from a plain which slopes gently from the Pacific
Chinandega, Managua, Masaya, and Rivas. Coast. Of Guatemala's 37 volcanoes, seven are
Since Costa Rica shares the same sources of more than 3,500 metres high. The Volcan de
earthquakes as the rest of Central America, the Fuego, 45km from the capital, has been the most
frequency and magnitude of eardiquakes are active and dangerous volcano since the time of
similar. A complex mapping of seismic activity the Spanish Conquest. The other active and
exists, showing three major seismic zones with dangerous Guatemalan volcanoes of Santa
approximately 1.9 million people exposed. The Maria, Santiaguito, and Pacaya threaten some
zone bordering the Pacific coast feels the direct 1.5 million people.
impact of the Cocos and Caribbean plates. In El Salvador, volcanic and seismic activity
Seismic activity can reach up to 7.0 on the Richter are closely related. The volcanoes presenting
scale, but occurs relatively deeply (deeper than the greatest threat are located in the west
20km) and with epicentres at a short distance (Santa Ana, Izalco, San Marcelino), the central
from major centres of population. It is worth region (San Salvador, Caldera Ilopango, and
noting that there is a 'zone of silence' in the San Vincente), and the east (San Miguel,
Peninsula de Nicaya, where scientists are Alegria or Tecapa, and Conchagua). An
expecting a significant earthquake with estimated population of about 3.9 million
catastrophic effects. The second zone, which inhabitants is exposed, with one-third of these
includes the Central Region (interior of the directly threatened by the San Salvador
country, valleys and highlands), has a moderate volcano, the most dangerous in the country.
to low level of activity (<7) with near-surface In Nicaragua, the picture is very similar.
earthquake centres (less than 20km deep). Volcanic activity threatens 60 per cent of the
However, the potential effects are serious, since population along the Pacific (where most
the area has the greatest concentration of the Nicaraguans live), an estimated 1.4 million
population. The third seismic zone, in the north, people. Important volcanoes include Cosigiiina
experiences weaker and less frequent seismic (near the Gulf of Fonseca), San Cristobal
activity than the rest of the country. (Chinandega), Cerro Negro, which is currently
in a particularly active phase, and Momotombo
(both in Leon), Mombacho (Granada), and
Volcanic activity Concepcion (Ometepe). However, 16 more
Volcanic activity is highly significant, since the volcanoes in the same chain may begin
great volcanoes and their monogenetic fields significant activity at any moment.
are near to large population centres or areas of Costa Rica has more than 200 volcanic focuses,
major economic activity. Though volcanic of which six have shown some activity, exposing
eruptions do not usually cause large-scale loss of an estimated population of 690,000 inhabitants.
life, and in this region are infrequent (every six Irazu volcano has erupted several times recently,
to 60 years), they can cause extensive damage. and is very near to the city of Cartago.
16
Assessment of threats and risks
17
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
show all of these throughout the rural areas. Few tsunamis have been recorded in Central
However, in urban areas the phenomenon America. One occurred in El Salvador in 1902,
attracts the attention of the authorities and the and in September 1992 one hit the Pacific coast
local population, and records are kept. The of Nicaragua, affecting 250km of the coastline
frequency with which landslides occur with waves measuring 5.0m, entering inland up
corresponds exactly to that of seismic and to 350 metres. This was caused by an earthquake
volcanic activity, floods, and strong rains. measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, with an
All of the most important population centres epicentre 75km to the south-east of the coast.
in the region are threatened by landslides, since
they are all surrounded by marginalised Drought
settlements in precarious conditions. Three
critical places are Guatemala City, San Drought can affect an entire population,
Salvador, and Tegucigalpa; and, to a lesser although its effects may be felt most directly in
extent, Managua and San Jose. Landslides certain areas. While the most severe natural
associated with volcanic activity also occur in dangers facing the region are earthquakes,
Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, and volcanoes, and hurricanes, droughts and wind
are accompanied by lava flows, pyroclastic erosion cause greater damage and economic
flows, and lahars (flowing masses of mingled losses.
volcanic debris and water). Droughts now occur almost as often as floods,
and it seems that in the next few years the region
will go from floods to drought, or will
Tsunamis experience both phenomena in due course.
Tsunamis are single, giant waves caused by However, the data used in the mapping exercise
underwater volcanic activity or large land- suggest that drought occurs every two to seven
slides on the seabed, although most are the years, and in some cases annually. Drought has
result of large-scale seismic activity with also been associated with El Nino, a complex
epicentres on the seabed. The tidal wave that phenomenon now occurring on a global scale.
results can cause disasters many kilometres This is currently being studied, in order that the
from the coast, especially when the affected mechanisms that activate it, as well as its
regions are flat. Tsunamis have been reported evolution, can be better understood and
in Mexico, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, forecast, and precautionary measures can be
although the whole of the Pacific coast is taken. Meanwhile, large areas of the region are
exposed to the threat. suffering ever more frequently from its
There have been reports of this phe- unpredictable impact.
nomenon on the Pacific coast of Mexico since In Mexico, some of the northern states are
1732. Over this period, of 39 recorded affected annually by droughts, and others every
tsunamis, 27 originated locally. Of the two to three years (see Map 2). It is estimated
remaining 12, three came from the Aleutians, that about 27 million people may be affected,
three from Japan, two from Chile, one from although in a study of this scale it is very difficult
Alaska, one from New Zealand, one from Peru, to determine the real impact on crops and
and one from Hawaii. The 27 tsunamis that communities.
originated locally were caused by tectonic In Central America, critical zones exist in the
tremors, of which 94 per cent occurred on the west of Honduras and in the north Pacific
Pacific coast and the rest hit the Gulf of Mexico. region of Nicaragua. Although other areas of
The area most affected has been Acapulco in Nicaragua are also affected by droughts, the
Guerrero, where there have been 16 tsunamis, incidence is less severe. A third zone is eastern El
with waves measuring up to 9.5 metres. There Salvador, and to a lesser degree the west of the
are currently two highly threatened zones: the country. Guatemala suffers drought in the
first extends from Baja California in the far northern regions and in north-east, south-east,
north to Michoacan (very high risk, with 3.5 south-west, and central areas. Lastly, Costa
million people exposed), and the second from Rica's Chorotega and Central Pacific regions are
Guerrero to the south of the country affected. Overall in Central America, it is
(secondary risk, with 1.3 million people estimated that a total of 8.4 million people live in
exposed). zones affected by drought.
18
Assessment of threats and risks
Risk of threats caused by human times a year. The land crisis of El Salvador, and
the unfinished Programme of Land Reform
agency (Programa de Transferencia de Tierra PIT)
Although there is no real dividing line between is of great importance because it concerns the
risks and disasters of natural origin and those agenda left pending after the peace accords. Its
caused by human activity, these were non-resolution compromises any National
differentiated for mapping purposes. Here, we Development Strategy (Alberto Enriquez
concentrate on armed conflicts and technological 1997). The Washington Office on Latin
America (WOLA), which is monitoring the
emergencies, especially pollution (chemical and
agrarian policies of the World Bank in El
biological) and explosions. However, we also
Salvador, argues that land policies are critical
considered other man-made threats to the
to peace. However, the strategy proposed by
environment.
the World Bank (liberalisation of the land
market) and adopted by the government has
Conflicts left farmers and campesinos with many doubts.
Central America is in transition from conflict These previously conflicting groups now agree
to democracy as it undergoes a process of on the need for an agrarian policy and relief for
change after more than a decade of war and both agrarian and bank debts.
armed conflict. However, new types of conflict Agrarian conflict and the struggle for access
are now emerging, due to the social and to and the defence of natural resources in
economic injustices affecting the most Honduras are also dangerous factors.
impoverished and vulnerable social sectors. Conflicting interpretations of the Agricultural
Guatemala and Mexico (Chiapas) merit special Modernisation Law (Ley de Modernization
attention: Guatemala, because it is heading Agrlcola) and the lack of a clear government
towards building a strong and lasting peace, policy on the administration and management
and Mexico, because a political and military of natural resources are combining to create
conflict is taking place against a very complex problems. Trouble-spots are in Sico-Paulaya,
background and is having a serious impact on which borders farmland declared an area of
people's lives. Trouble-spots in the other agrarian reform by the government, where
countries could also result or already have various groups are in conflict, and Ojo de
resulted in conflicts. These conflicts may not Agua, on the northern coast (lands belonging
yet be serious enough to merit emergency to the Garifuna people), and areas throughout
intervention but are worth registering, given the west and east of the country, and on the
that the development of a conflict is a process, island of Roatan. In some of the western
and they could become more acute in the departments, the conflict centres on the
future. The conflicts considered here also defence of woodland, where communities are
correspond with concerns expressed by local fighting influential groups who are violating
people. the 30-year moratorium on tree-felling, agreed
with the government. The situation of the
Certain aspects of these conflicts are chortis indians, who are fighting fiercely for
common to the region, and are the cause of their land to be restored, led to a violent
great concern: in particular, the problems protest in August 1997. This demonstration
associated with 'overall insecurity' because of was suppressed, indicating that the crisis is now
the level of violence (among the highest in the becoming significant and could spread across
world) and human-rights violations; economic the country.
and job insecurity against a background of Forced economic migration has long affected
inequalities; insecurity in public life Mexico, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It is
(corruption, ineffective institutions); political particularly relevant to El Salvador, because one-
insecurity (distrust of traditional political fifth (1.5 million) of Salvadorans living abroad are
parties); and environmental insecurity in all its in die USA, many of them at serious risk of
expressions. For example, in Honduras there deportation. Through monthly remittances,
have been serious tensions in the judicial these people make a significant contribution to
system. More than 60 per cent of those the country's economy: some US$1,086 million,
detained in custody have not been sentenced which represents nearly 10 per cent of the Gross
and remain for long periods in over-crowded National Product, far more than that received in
prisons in which riots break out at least six aid from the USA (see Table 1).
19
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
Table 1: Remittances from Salvadorans estimated that 80,000 people are carriers of the
in USA and aid from USA (in millions of virus, two-thirds of whom are male. Most are in
US dollars) the 15-34 year-old age group (72 per cent), of
whom 65 per cent live in San Pedro Sula or
Year Monthly payments around the capital city.
to families US aid
Technology-related emergencies
1991 518.0 219.6
A technology-related emergency involves
1992 686.0 294.6 spillages, leaks,fire,or the explosion of any toxic
or dangerous substance, object, or product. The
1993 884.0 220.3 threat is present in all the countries, particularly
in Mexico, where on average 775 fires and
1994 958.0 76.4 explosions are recorded annually, mainly in and
around Mexico City, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, Baja
1995 1,000.0 38.9
California, Chihuahua, and Guanajuato
1996 1,086.0 41.8 (Secretaria de Gobernacion 1994).
In Central America, the greatest threats are
Total 5,132.0 936.2 from the operations of oil companies and the
transportation of toxic substances. For example,
80 per cent of the oil pipeline crossing Costa Rica
Until 1995 deportations averaged 1,800 a year, from the north-east to the south-west is above
but the trend is ever increasing. Salvadoran ground, and at Cartago there is a battery of
nationals represented about 3.5 per cent of those storage tanks above ground level without any
deported from the USA before a new immi- system of safety control. In Managua, the
gration law came into force on 1 April 1997. refinery has leaked phenol into the ground-
The maquilas (assembly plants) and pressure water that is the source of 30 per cent of the
on local resources are important issues in capital's water supply. The same is happening in
Honduras and El Salvador. For instance, in Honduras, where a pipeline is threatening the
Choloma (Honduras), the total number of city of Tela. Meanwhile, according to the
industries (around 50) is expanding, but this Honduran Red Cross, combustible material is
growth does not feature in any municipal transported without safety regulations by road
development plan to cater for the demand for (there is no national railway network in
services from the large number of people Honduras) from the principal ports to various
seeking work there. An estimated 70,000 destinations inland.
workers are currently living in very difficult With the closure of Penwalt in Nicaragua,
conditions in which very few of their basic Central America is supplied with liquid chlorine
needs are being met. Choloma and the from Mexico, which is transported through
surrounding areas do not have the necessary Guatemala along the Panamerican Highway,
absorption capacity, and the present situation without any safety controls. None of the Central
is likely to create a trouble-spot: in addition to American countries has any expertise in dealing
being a significant site of industrial conflict, the with this substance in the event of an
area is rife with violence and delinquency, and emergency.
there is a proliferation of sexually transmitted
Another risk worthy of mention is the high
diseases.
probability of fires in three of the hospitals in
In the industrial belt in the north of Honduras, where the electricity systems are
Honduras, San Pedro Sula shows an especially very old and overloaded: it would be impossible
high incidence of HIV/AIDS for Central to evacuate patients in the event of a fire, as the
America; 57 per cent of the recorded cases in the emergency exits were sealed in the 1980s, so
region are in Honduras, and are concentrated that political prisoners undergoing treatment
in San Pedro Sula. Given the behaviour of the could not escape.
syndrome and the speed with which it advances,
it could soon have a significant impact on the
nation's health. It has been predicted that life Abuses of natural resources
expectancy at birth could be reduced by up to 30 The entire region is in the midst of a major
per cent by the year 2000. It is currently environmental crisis, which has contributed
20
Assessment of threats and risks
21
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
noticeable impact on human health. In They face various physical risks (earthquakes,
Guatemala, the areas affected are in the centre volcanic activity, floods, landslides and
and south of the country, resulting in up to avalanches, drought, tidal waves, hurricanes,
30,000 incidences of pesticide poisoning, and pollution, fires, and explosions).
serious water and soil pollution. In Nicaragua,
the Ministry of Health estimates that more than They are exposed to combinations of threats,
1,200 people per 100,000 inhabitants in two which generally result in a chain-reaction of
departments on the Pacific coast are poisoned, risks.
and there is considerable pollution of water They tend to be areas with a high level of
sources (both at surface level and underground) economic production, with infrastructure
and soil. In Costa Rica, the use of pesticides has and basic services, making them zones of
doubled to the current figure of 12,000 strategic economic importance for the region
tons/year, resulting in drastic pollution of rivers and for the countries in question.
and coasts, especially the basins of the River The communication systems and the road
Tarcoles and the River Bermudez . network are generally good.
There is a high population density (almost 60
Mining operations also cause pollution, as in
per cent of the regional population is
the case of the open-mining operations in the
concentrated there).
north of Costa Rica and in the Tilaran
mountains. (These operations are causing A country-by-country summary (Table 2)
serious conflicts with local people.) In describes the most important risks faced,
Honduras, the mining operations around Lake according to the criteria indicated above.
Yojoa have caused extreme pollution of water
and soil. In Nicaragua, there is pollution in the Table 2: Areas of priority for emergency
mining areas of the Atlantic Coast. work
Pollution from rubbish merits special
attention. The case of Guatemala illustrates the
Country Regions Level of risk
magnitude of the problems. The city has only
one waste disposal site, 'El Trebol', which Mexico Very high
Central and South
receives approximately 1,200 tons of waste a (15-32 states)
day. The rest is burnt in the open air or North and border High to moderate
disposed of in 50 underground rubbish dumps
around the city. Industrial waste and waste Guatemala Metropolitan Very high
from hospitals in Guatemala City is collected Central Very high
along with household waste and taken to South-west Very high
rubbish tips, without any safety controls. A North High
similar situation occurs in Costa Rica, where North-west High to moderate
1,400 tons of waste are produced each day, and North-east, Peten
only 40 per cent is disposed of adequately. The
problem is also very acute in El Salvador, Honduras North-west Very high
especially given the high concentration of the West Very high
population in urban areas. South Very high
Central High to moderate
North-east Moderate
Evaluation and levels of risks El Salvador Central-south Very high
Once threats have materialised, they become Eastern-south Very high
risks, the magnitude of which varies according East-south High to moderate
to various factors. Our assessment of exposure Rest of the country High to moderate
to threats therefore focused on demographic
Nicaragua Pacific Very high
distribution, economic infrastructure and
Central and Atlantic High to moderate
activity, general infrastructure and services, and
whether safety regulations exist and are
Costa Rica Central Very high
observed.
Chorotega High
The general characteristics of the areas
Huetar Atlantico High to moderate
classified as high-risk zones are as follows.
22
Assessment of threats and risks
23
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
people at very high risk, 300,000 people at high (see Table 2), recent major events have included
risk, and one million people at moderate risk the earthquakes in Managua (1972), Guatemala
(Direction General de Protection Civil, (1976), San Salvador (1986), and Costa Rica
Secretaria de Gobernacion 1997). However, (1991), and Hurricanes Fifi in Honduras (1974)
civil-society organisations (CSOs) estimate that and Joan in Nicaragua (1988) [and Mitch in
the numbers threatened are more like two 1998 - Ed.]. These are extreme events in a
million. geographic region where many communities
There is little information about the are annually subjected to physical and social
economic activities of the communities and displacement as a result of smaller-scale
states concerned, though CENAPRED is disasters.
estimating the damage that an eruption would
cause in the event of various probable scenarios. Guatemala
Access roads to the volcano are relatively good in The capital city of Guatemala has been moved
the State of Mexico. However, many stretches twice after being destroyed by disasters. The
are at high risk of being buried by volcanic settlement in the valley of Almolonga (now
materials, as they are intersected by great Ciudad Vieja) was razed in September 1541 by
gullies, through which volcanic material would an avalanche from the Agua volcano. The city of
run. Housing infrastructure and public services Santiago founded afterwards in the valley of
are also exposed, as is the economy, given that Pancoy (now Antigua Guatemala) was finally
70 per cent of production is agricultural. In abandoned in 1775, after suffering constant
reality, it would be difficult for the communities calamities as a result of volcanic eruptions and
at risk to withstand the magnitude of the threat. strong earthquakes, culminating in the
In fact, the town of Amecameca is built on the earthquake of Santa Marta in 1773. Today's
earlier settlement of Ameca, which was buried in Guatemala City lies about 45km away from the
a previous eruption. Antigua, in a location even more exposed to
seismic threats. Catastrophic earthquakes
The situation of Popo is not an isolated case in occurred there in 1917, 1918, and 1976.
Mexico, but is part of a complex system of
threats facing the country, especially in the Other important population centres in the
high-risk zones. For instance, a similar situation priority zones have also been affected by
can be seen in the case of the Chichonal volcano disastrous events. For example, the 'great
in Chiapas and the disaster that befell the Zoque earthquake of the West' in 1902 measured 8.2
indians, who now face the greatest challenge in on the Richter scale and caused serious damage
their history: the survival of their ethnic group in all the towns in the highlands, leaving at least
following the eruption of this volcano in April 2,000 people dead. Months later, the Santa
1982. Maria volcano ejected eight cubic kilometres of
sand and ash in 36 hours, which covered almost
ten towns and the provincial capitals of
Central America Quetzaltenango and San Marcos, causing the
The people of Central America face a situation deaths of at least 1,000 people and serious
that is no less bleak. The levels of risks exposed damage to agriculture. Twenty-nine years later,
in the mapping exercise can be illustrated by a second crater, called Santiaguito, opened up
three factors: the recurrence of events with and has been active to this day. A combination of
serious implications for the development of the the volcanic activity of Santiaguito and heavy
region, a concrete example of which is provided rains laid waste to the town of El Palmar,
by Guatemala; the damage caused to the testifying to the destructive potential of the
population, the infrastructure, and the River Samala (stirred up by the quantity of sand
economy (which can be seen in El Salvador); and and volcanic ash) along the length of its course
the potential risk, as seen in the case of Costa to its mouth on the Pacific coast. Important
Rica. Using these examples we can examine population centres along this track could share a
three basic aspects in the evaluation of risks: similar fate.
What has happened? What are the implications Apart from these momentous catastrophes,
of present threats? And what can we expect in there have been other events caused by
the future? torrential rains that have flooded the zone
Throughout history, Central America, with a identified in the mapping. Hurricanes,
total population of about 30 million, has droughts, landslides, and other devastating
experienced disasters. In the Zones of Risk threats have similarly affected the area. For
24
Assessment of threats and risks
example, the mapping exercise identified intensive rains and the extensive
various rivers which cause great flooding along deforestation of the volcano. These factors,
their courses in the south. According to local together with the poor planning of human
people, near its mouth the river reaches such a settlements, created favourable conditions
high level that parents hang their children in for the disaster, which left 500 dead and 2,400
hammocks from the tallest tree-tops to prevent injured, and destroyed 120 houses
the turbulent waters from reaching them. (CEPRODE estimates). The losses in terms of
The study's examination of past and probable housing were calculated by the Ministry of
events in high-risk zones confirms the Planning in 1993 at US$418,765, and 20
impression, immortalised in the local saying, hectares of crops were lost. There were also
that 'no corner of Guatemala is safe'. health problems, job losses, reductions in
family incomes, and an increase in public
El Salvador spending for the purpose of reconstruction.
El Salvador is significantly affected by flooding
and droughts in the high-risk zones. In the last On 10 October 1986, one of the biggest
50 years, more than 25 serious floods have been earthquakes ever recorded affected the whole
registered. CEPRODE's assessments of the of the population of San Salvador, leaving
damage caused in this period indicate that more 1,500 dead, 45,600 houses destroyed,
than 26,000 families have been seriously economic losses in the region of US$1,500m,
affected by floods, more than 6,000 houses 250,000 families homeless, and 415 public
damaged, 43,000 people injured, and 17,000 buildings damaged (according to the
hectares of crops destroyed. On 16 October Ministry of Planning).
1993, strong tides in Sonsonate and La Libertad
resulted in the water entering a considerable The risks associated with volcanic activity are
distance inland, which caused serious flooding high, because the population is concentrated
in the communities living in the coastal zone. around the most important volcanoes in the
Severe droughts have also occurred, country. According to CEPRODE, the
particularly in the east, with serious population exposed reaches 3.9 million, taking
repercussions for agriculture. The Ministry of into account some of the smaller volcanoes.
the Environment recorded losses of more than Both CEPRODE and USAID calculate that in
6,000 tons of basic grains in 1992. The 1991 the last 100 years damage in the region of
drought caused losses of more than US$37m in US$2,000m has been caused by earthquakes
the production of basic grains, and a reduction and volcanoes; more than 60,000 houses have
in coffee production of 35-50 per cent. The been damaged, and 500,000 families have
drought also had serious implications for the suffered injuries.
energy industry, as there was drastic rationing, Landslides associated with seismic activity
which caused daily losses in the order of and intensive rains occur frequently in the
US$125,000, apart from the domestic losses not country, blocking roads, damaging the crops of
quantified. small and medium-scale producers, and
Seismic and volcanic activity also has serious affecting important urban centres. In 1995,
repercussions: several landslides were reported in the
settlements on Lake Ilopango, a consequence of
The earthquake of 3 May 1965 shook the the earthquake that occurred in San Salvador.
areas surrounding San Salvador, leaving
10,000 families homeless. Costa Rica
Two-thirds of the population of 3.3 million is
The 19 June 1982 earthquake was felt almost
concentrated in the central valley (designated a
right across the country, and was also
Very High Risk Zone in Table 2). More than half
perceptible in Guatemala, Honduras,
of these people live in the metropolitan area of
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. It caused great
San Jose and the seven provincial capitals. The
material damage: 1,630 houses were
country is predominantly urban, as the rest of
destroyed, and 5,000 families left homeless.
the population is concentrated in a few medium-
In 1982 a colossal earthquake occurred near sized cities (between 40,000 and 85,000 people),
the top of the San Salvador volcano, affecting or in small rural communities. San Jose is the
various areas to the north-east of San country's commercial centre and forms the axis
Salvador. The cause was attributed to large of the so-called Central Corridor, of which the
masses of soil becoming loose, due to the outer limits are the ports of Limon and
25
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
Puntarena. Ninety-five per cent of the country's Because of the 'zone of silence' off the coasts
imports and exports are concentrated in these of Guanacaste, a huge earthquake is expected in
two cities, and certain strategically important the Chorotega region, which will shake the
industries are based there: the oil refineries, for nation in every sense. In addition, the growth of
example. marginal communities around the capital city
The country's production base is funda- has resulted in a significant risk of floods and
mentally rural, with products like coffee, landslides. According to the Co-ordinator of
bananas, sugar, cotton, and meat dominating in these communities, the people face annual
terms of commerce and exports. Tourism, based flooding, during which drinking water and dirty
on the country's beaches and eco-tourist water get mixed, settlements are destroyed by
ventures, is also important in the national flood waters, houses collapse, and so on. A local
economy. risk map, drawn up for the community of Los
The population, economy, and infra- Guidos, reveals its precarious situation and
illustrates the great degree of risk experienced
structure are therefore concentrated precisely
by more than 50 marginal communities around
in the zones that are at high risk of seismic
the capital city. In the centre of the country,
activity, volcanoes, floods, hurricanes (indirect volcanic activity is very frequent and, although
effects), and droughts. In addition, other risks, not of great magnitude (< 6.5 on the Richter
whether natural (avalanches, rockfalls, etc.) or scale), earthquakes occur at surface level and are
of human agency (pollution and technology- capable of great destruction.
related emergencies), can also be triggered. In We conclude this section with a table that
the last 10 years, the Institute of Meteorology summarises the levels of risk and impact that are
has intervened in 33 emergencies of hydro- associated with hurricanes. [Hurricane Mitch,
meteorological origin alone, which have caused estimated to be the third-strongest hurricane of
losses estimated in total at US$ 670 million. The the century in Central America, struck the
effects of storms and hurricanes (principally region in November 1998, after this report was
because of floods) thus have significant written, and therefore too late to be considered
consequences for the national economy. in detail. - Ed.]
26
3 Assessment of vulnerability
Natural disasters, we assume, detonate crises in obtaining existing data; incompatible data; and
contexts of social, economic, environmental, the frequent absence of a GIS, or inadequate
and political instability, bringing to light a series use of one where it does exist. Local studies of
of hidden conflicts and potentially dangerous vulnerability have rarely been based on
situations. Here we seek to identify the most sufficiently precise studies of phenomena. For
crucial problems of groups living in high-risk example, there is a lack of micro-seismic
zones that make them vulnerable to, and in the studies, which makes it impossible to undertake
end victims of, disasters. reliable studies of levels of infrastructural
vulnerability in the region, whether public or
private.
Technical focus on vulnerability It is very difficult to establish the relationship
between destructive phenomena and damage
Vulnerability is defined in technical terms as the caused. Sometimes the predictive and planning
proportion of human lives, assets, and economic systems used have been based on the
activity that could be affected in a given place experiences of other countries (for example, US
should a given disaster occur. This allows us to systems have been used to determine the effects
evaluate the potential damage and thus to of earthquakes and hurricanes on housing).
construct scales of risks, in view of the probability However, these systems are rarely adapted to
of a destructive phenomenon occurring. In local conditions. For example, in the majority of
addition, it allows us to calculate the potential cases, building regulations do not consider dead
damage and its costs, and compare them with the weights on the roofs of houses, thus ignoring the
cost of preventive actions to minimise the possibility of deposits of volcanic ash. Similarly,
damage. We can therefore provide the people the force of winds considered in these
who make political decisions with the tools to regulations does not correspond to the forces
make those decisions and also persuade them of normally reached by hurricanes affecting the
what needs to be taken into account when countries in the region.
formulating disaster-prevention policies. As the present levels of vulnerability cannot
These objectives have not yet been achieved be established, evaluations of the potential
in Mexico and Central America, and research is consequences of natural disasters have tended
still in its infancy. Previous studies tended to to focus on past events. It is therefore difficult to
focus on destructive natural phenomena rather form a reasonably long-term view to enable
than on vulnerability. Costa Rica is a case in comparisons to be made and to establish the
point. There are plenty of data available in the relevance of the impact of past events to
Geographic Information System (GIS) of the potential events in the future.
National Emergencies Commission (CNE), but For all these reasons, analyses of vulnerability
they consist of information which is relevant are severely inadequate. The principal initiatives
essentially to the physical aspects of disasters, are essentially concerned with the vulnerability
rather than their economic and social effects, of strategically important buildings such as
although Costa Rica is one of the countries schools and hospitals, with housing being a
where the investigation of natural risks is most secondary concern. In fact, hospitals were the
advanced. In Guatemala, CONRED (the subject of the first significant attempts to use a
National Commission for the Reduction of cost-benefit methodology to evaluate the
Disasters) intends to carry out another economic consequences of damage caused by
important study, but there are no firm plans. natural disasters.
This situation can be explained principally by The OEA/ECHO programme for the
the insufficiency of data; lack of inter- reduction of vulnerability in the education
institutional co-ordination; difficulties in sector represents an advance in this field,
27
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
although it is only at the pilot stage (covering A good example of the above is the case of the
1,500 schools in Central America out of a total Mexico City earthquake in 1985, which killed as
of 4,500) and concentrates on the structure of many as 30,000 people and left approximately
the buildings. The results of the studies are 60,000 homeless. It was clear that building
not yet available, although some revealing regulations had not been observed, especially
information is now available: in Honduras, those prohibiting construction in areas of high
for instance, 55 per cent of schools are seismic activity. An example of this is that 60 per
designated high-risk and highly vulnerable; cent of the buildings currently standing in
and in Guatemala, more than 60 per cent of Mexico City have been built in danger zones,
schools are designated very vulnerable, with no explanation to date of how this
having been constructed without reference to happened. The result is a city with 18 million
building regulations. inhabitants which runs the risk of being
destroyed in the next earthquake.
Programmes to analyse and reduce the
vulnerability of hospitals have also been
carried out, particularly in Costa Rica, where
many hospitals were shown to be seriously Political focus on vulnerability
vulnerable. These have all been reconstructed
Political vulnerability is defined as the inverse
using special structural engineering tech-
value of a community's level of autonomy in
niques, financed at great cost by the Costa
taking decisions that affect it. That is, the greater
Rican authorities (Caja Costarricense de
the autonomy, the less the political vulnerability
Seguro Social). According to the National
of the community.
Disaster Prevention Unit of the Ministry for
In countries with highly centralised
Health and Social Security in Guatemala, of
governments, political vulnerability has two
36 hospitals, 35 per cent were designated very
facets. Firstly, it is harder for a community to
vulnerable. In Mexico, according to the
attract the attention of decision makers at a
Mexican Red Cross, of 86 hospitals, 80 per
national level. Secondly, local communities find
cent were designated very vulnerable.
it hard to formulate their own solutions to a
given problem, and to apply local knowledge
Few studies have dealt with the technical and resources to their solutions, thus limiting
vulnerability of buildings, especially domestic the need for external help to that which is
housing. One important study, carried out in strictly necessary.
1995 by CEPREDENAC/OEA, is worth noting. However, in Mexico and Central America a
It was incorporated into the Regional Plan of process of decentralisation and municipal
Human Settlements and Housing, under the autonomy now features prominently on the
auspices of Habitat II in 1996. An action plan for agendas of leading decision makers. Given the
Central America identifies the municipalities framework of the democratisation that is taking
and areas of towns most vulnerable to natural place in the region, the issue of autonomy has
disasters, with the emphasis on the most come to the forefront. However, it is a long-term
precarious settlements. process, and there are still many problems
Vulnerable housing is a critical issue in the preventing greater progress. What has
region. Firstly, building regulations seldom occurred so far has been a process of
address the reality of the risks, given the absence 'deconcentration' rather than decentralisation.
of detailed studies of .zones of seismic activity. That is, a series of problems and responsibilities
Secondly, limited financial resources mean that have been transferred to municipalities, but
these regulations are not observed. And thirdly, without the resources to deal with the problems
there is major corruption in dealings between and to address social needs. Given the high
construction firms and the bodies responsible levels of poverty which these municipalities face,
for ensuring that building regulations are they cannot be autonomous in dealing with the
observed, particularly when the buildings in risks and consequences of disasters, whatever
question are in earthquake-prone zones. their origin.
According to the information available, In terms of political vulnerability, the
Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala are the countries of Central America are among the
most vulnerable in this respect, followed by El poorest in the world (with the exception of
Salvador and Mexico, and finally Costa Rica and Costa Rica) and the most indebted. They have
Panama. no economic or financial autonomy or food
28
Assessment of vulnerability
security, since they are very dependent on resources will reach the communities for which
external help in tackling development they are destined, and the groups they aim to
problems, including dealing with disasters. The reach.
management of natural disasters is related to In Mexico, the situation is similarly somewhat
political systems that are in deep crisis, and are complicated, in that although the government
characterised by administrations which are does not ask for help once an emergency has been
greatly tainted by corruption, impunity, and declared, it cannot itself help those in need. The
unethical behaviour. This does not inspire the vulnerability of communities affected by a
confidence of the population as a whole, nor of disaster is obvious, as they do not have the
the aid agencies that work on disaster capacity to manage their own problems
prevention or intervene in emergencies. For themselves, but must rely on others to help them,
example, from 1982 to 1983 the region of through actions which may or may not be
Guanacaste in Costa Rica suffered a severe effective, owing to economic policy or party
drought with great losses to agricultural politics. The problem is aggravated when,
production. The money to compensate for the because of political polarisation, no decision is
losses sustained during the drought and the taken, or a decision is made too late, in both cases
earthquake in San Isidro El General was with serious consequences for local communities.
administered through the National Emergency Recent such cases include the drought during
Fund of the National Emergencies Commission which the governments of Honduras and
(CNE) and directly by the Presidential Office. Nicaragua refused to declare a state of
In 1985 it was discovered that fraud, estimated emergency for political reasons. This prevented
initially to be worth US$300,000 and rising with the international community from giving
time to almost US$3m, had occurred. In 1986 a assistance. For example, UNDP in Nicaragua has
number of people were accused, including ex- resources available for emergencies that it does
President Monge, ex-Vice President Arauz, and not commit, unless it receives an official request
Monge's former Personal Assistant. In 1994, from the government and a state of emergency is
after a trial lasting 10 years, Monge and Arauz declared.
were exonerated of any blame.
One interesting aspect concerns compliance
This incident undermined public confidence with the Code of Conduct for aid in emergencies.
in the CNE and was an important factor in its Many organisations consulted on the matter said
lack of progress and consolidation. In addition, that in general their governments observed the
as the scandal was at its peak, the Office of Civil Code, though we consider this to be dubious. For
Defence underwent various management instance, in Costa Rica, the First Lady has
changes which prevented continuity in its work, repeatedly delivered food to disaster areas,
leaving disaster professionals frustrated at the distributing it directly and with no controls, and
slow progress. This incident illustrates how frequently in a form and a quantity (including
levels of vulnerability can be increased by the products not suited to the local needs) that
way in which disasters are managed, as much as promote dependency. But such actions do get
by the disasters themselves. wide press coverage, which may of course be the
On the other hand, in some respects disasters intention.
are being managed in a positive way. In general, In other cases, politicians capitalise on
all the countries are making an effort to establish emergencies to gain votes. For example, in
rules for international aid in emergency August 1997 President Reina of Honduras
situations, through certain procedures that visited the drought-affected departments of
must be followed through the foreign offices of Valle and Choluteca and promised the
each country. El Salvador and Costa Rica have communities that in the next term of
made most progress in this matter. However, government (if his party won the November
although these measures can help to manage elections) he would construct a dam in the area
external aid and channel aid from friendly to ensure irrigation and to reduce their
countries, they can also complicate matters for vulnerability. The main campesino organisation
international NGOs already in the area. In in Honduras, the COCOCH, says that the
addition, it is difficult for organisations to irrigation is destined for the large producers in
channel significant quantities of resources the area and that campesino farmers will continue
without the security of knowing that they will to be exposed to drought and increasingly
reach those who need them most. Similarly, difficult conditions, given the salinisation
organisations cannot know for certain whether occurring in that area of the country.
29
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
Finally, and still on the theme of the Code of A regional view of social
Conduct, the independence of NGOs in their
humanitarian aid work is not respected,
vulnerability
particularly in Mexico and Nicaragua. Nor is Although Central America experiences more
information exchange being facilitated in disasters than almost anywhere else in the
emergency situations, which makes it difficult for
world, and these disasters have common roots in
NGOs to act effectively, as occurred in the case of
the natural, socio-economic, and political
the drought in Honduras and Nicaragua.
environment of the region as a whole, few
studies have focused on a regional analysis or
strategy. Existing studies have tended to focus
Social focus on vulnerability on individual cases in isolation from their
regional context. Almost without exception, the
The very nature of underdevelopment means methodologies and techniques used to date
that disasters are a secondary issue in the have had a local focus, concentrating on places
context of the many needs that must be met. where the risks of disasters and emergencies
In Mexico and Central America, under- have been experienced.
standing of disasters and their management is still
limited. The incapacity of governments to solve The uniqueness of the mapping exercise
the primary problems that characterise countries described here is that it was obliged to adopt a
with a low level of development makes for a regional focus in order to analyse the
situation in which disaster-response is not a vulnerability of the communities exposed to the
priority. The primary problems include the risks of disasters in Mexico and Central
elimination of the extreme poverty suffered by America. It is a complex task to carry out a
broad sectors of society; economic and tech- regional or national analysis of the vulnerability
nological dependence on other countries; the of communities in the face of disasters, in that
great deficit in public finances; the need to the focus has always been on the characteristics
improve and expand the infrastructure for of a past or probable event, usually with the aim
development; the need for decent housing; and a of taking steps for preparedness and response.
lack of jobs. Governments seem to act on the An analysis of vulnerability, however, is more
assumption that disasters may or may not occur, useful for determining necessary steps for
and so it makes more sense to concentrate first on preparedness, mitigation, and response.
solving or addressing the more immediate needs Studies of vulnerability with a local focus tend
which, while diey have been urgent for decades, to employ detailed analyses of the following: the
are becoming increasingly acute. systems of production in an area; the
There is a tendency to focus on problems infrastructure and access to services;
fiscally in terms of projected risks and communications and transport systems; the
vulnerabilities, rather than from a social dominant culture and the capacities of local
perspective. Only one organisation, The agents and communities for organisation and
Network of Social Studies for the Prevention of mobilisation; and the degree of preparedness of
Natural Disasters in Latin America (LA RED), has a group or community in the face of possible
been concerned with generating knowledge and emergencies. At a regional level it is almost
proposals for a study of social vulnerability; it has impossible to evaluate all of these, given the
promoted some very valuable new concepts. This diversity of situations and the near impossibility
has influenced organisations such as the Latin of ensuring field trips and interviews across such
American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO)
a wide area. Thus, in order to adopt a focus and
(regional), CEPRODE (El Salvador), UNAM
methodology which allowed risks and vulner-
(Mexico), and the German organisation GTZ
abilities and the factors common to each to be
(regional), among others, to consider human
visualised on a regional and national scale, the
factors of vulnerability in their analyses and
studies. Apart from these isolated instances, there study sacrificed elements of the rich diversity of
are no serious studies of social vulnerability. The different localities, except in some cases where
problem centres on the difficulty of obtaining field visits were possible.
detailed information about local risks. As a result, Social-vulnerability assessment uses the living
there is a lack of real tools for decision making conditions of the communities in a given region as
tools which could influence decision-makers and trace indicators, on the basis that these reflect not
direct their policies, and which might help to just the resources available to these communities,
solve the underlying problems. but also their degree of marginalisation and
30
Assessment of vulnerability
exclusion from social, economic, and political probability and risk of epidemics or death
systems. It thus provides us with a clear link during and after a disaster or emergency.
between the two focuses of emergencies and
The level of malnutrition is used to indicate
development, in that the degree of vulnerability of
the degree of food security of a given
a given community is a consequence of that
community. Levels for women and girls are
community's level of inclusion in or exclusion
considered separately, as they tend to be the
from the general model of development. In fact,
most vulnerable to malnutrition. If there is
the reduction of vulnerability belongs under the
high overall malnutrition, food shortages in
heading of 'development' rather than in the
an emergency put women and girls in an even
category of 'emergencies' as it is conventionally
more precarious situation, causing starvation
conceived.
and even death.
The study also deals with the differing levels
of vulnerability of women and men. The trace The proportion of households headed by
indicators of living conditions are differentiated women, and their level of poverty. The level
by sex whenever the statistics and collected of vulnerability of these households is shown
studies allow for this. Other fundamental by the fact that their probability of survival in
elements that demonstrate the differing levels of the event of an emergency is less, since they
vulnerability of men and women are also have limited access to services and resources,
covered, such as female poverty, the proportion including the benefits of development
of families headed by women, and their state of programmes. Their participation in the
health and nutrition. Similarly, the community and in co-operatives, through
participation of women in social organisations is which resources are channelled in
considered, because this in itself facilitates or emergencies, is also limited.
limits their access to emergency resources. Also
studied is the participation of women in rural The level of illiteracy, which also varies
agricultural production. according to sex. This is in itself an indicator
To summarise, we assume that at a regional of marginalisation and is a decisive factor in
level vulnerability can be measured by the the community's access to information,
current living conditions of a threatened group, services, and resources in every sense,
which varies according to sectors (rural/urban, including in emergency situations.
women/men), and the probability that a given Living conditions, where vulnerability is
occurrence (threat) will outstrip their capacity commonly seen in overcrowding and the
for survival and meeting their basic needs. The precarious structure of housing. These factors
following factors have been considered. allow us to determine the degree of protection
The level of poverty, which in itself indicates or weakness, should a threat occur.
that families have severely limited resources Two prevailing factors on government agendas
and precarious survival conditions, across the region also tend to increase the
particularly when they are living in vulnerability of communities at risk: economic
conditions of extreme poverty. Associated structural adjustment and poverty.
with and resulting from extreme poverty are
Structural adjustment policies have two
all the other characteristics of vulnerability
common factors with a negative impact: first,
(such as low level of schooling, lack of basic
services, inadequate housing), because the monetary policies, which cause rural
level of poverty expresses the productivity of production to slow down and urban
the family, whether measured by the extent to unemployment to grow, resulting in greater
which a family can meet their basic needs or numbers of unemployed and impoverished
by the poverty line (capacity to access basic people, living in insecure conditions in both
staples, given a determined level of family cities and the countryside; and, second,
income). The more precarious the family's reductions in social spending in order to bring
capacity for survival, the more fragile their down fiscal deficits and public expenditure,
productivity in the face of external factors. which affect the poorest the most. Despite the
modernisation of the state that is supposed to
The standard of health (mortality, morbidity). accompany structural adjustment, there has
Although this is in itself related to overall levels been reluctance and resistance on the part of
of poverty, it expresses the degree of hygiene central government to decentralise and to
and sanitation of the community and the strengthen local and municipal government.
31
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
These local authorities ought to be the principal Female poverty and above all the
agents in articulating local development efforts feminisation of poverty are complex topics, and
and strengthening the capacity of communities it is not the intention of this study to enter into
and individuals for preparedness, prevention, an exhaustive discussion of them. It aims rather
and mitigation in the event of disasters. But to indicate certain factors, so that the differing
there is no real tradition of local government in conditions experienced by impoverished
the region, except in the capital and major cities women and men can be seen. About 25 per cent
of each country. Elsewhere local government is of households in the region are headed by
effectively an institutional reference point women, because of the death of the spouse in
without resources or decision-making capacity. conflict, or abandonment, or the spouse's
If this system is maintained, vulnerability in migration for political or economic reasons. The
affected zones will progressively increase. figures for Nicaragua and Honduras are
The connections between poverty and especially high, at 36 per cent and 27 per cent
vulnerability are clear. In the last 20 years the respectively. The importance of ensuring a
region has been exposed to various situations gender perspective in emergency programmes
arising from the prevailing economic and is evident here, particularly if the distribution
political structures, for example the economic of, for example, food is carried out through the
crisis facing highly dependent economies, the male head of the family, which in many cases
exacerbation of armed conflicts, and the impact
means that fatherless households are excluded.
of structural adjustment. The combined effects
There are exceptionally high levels of poverty
have resulted in migration, both internally and
externally, an increase in the levels of within these households. In Honduras, for
unemployment and poverty, and the growing example, 72 per cent of families headed by
exclusion of broad sectors of the population women live in extreme poverty, compared with
from access to goods and basic services. a figure of 63 per cent overall.
As can be seen from Table 4, every country The feminisation of poverty in the region is
has registered increasing levels of poverty and only partly demonstrated by the differences in
of extreme poverty. Even in the case of Costa levels of poverty experienced by men and
Rica, where the overall level has stayed the women. It is also seen in the degree of the
same, the increase in extreme poverty is poverty experienced, and the greater
worrying. Given the continuation of pro- difficulties confronting women when they try
grammes of structural adjustment and the to escape from this condition. The inequalities
economic changes brought about by in opportunity in, for example, education,
globalisation, the trend has been one of greater employment, pay (Table 6), ownership, and
deterioration, principally because of the credit severely marginalise women and trap
increase in extreme poverty, as economic them in poverty. When adversity strikes, their
policies cause even greater exclusion of the survival is even more precarious, because of
poor in rural and marginal urban areas. inequalities even in access to humanitarian aid.
On average, women in Central America earn
Table 4: Poverty in Mexico and Central almost 25 per cent less than men do for equal
America work. There are also differences in levels of
literacy, the greatest difference being in
% living in poverty Extreme poverty Guatemala, where 48 per cent of women are
Country 1980 1991 1980 1991 illiterate, compared with 34 per cent of men. In
Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, levels of
Costa Rica 27.3 27.7 13.6 18.5 male and female illiteracy are almost the same.
However, the overall picture changes
El Salvador 70.2 75.4 51.1 52.3
substantially when the same figures are broken
Guatemala 63.8 75.8 31.5 52.2 down by sector (rural/urban or indigenous
population). For example, 36 per cent of
Honduras 67.6 76.5 56.8 62.7 indigenous men in Panama are illiterate,
whereas for women the figure is approaching 53
Nicaragua 63.8 74.4 33.3 41.8 per cent. In short, Central American women
experience above-average conditions of
Mexico 44.9 59.9 10.0 no data
marginalisation and poverty.
32
Assessment of vulnerability
% of male salary
earned by women 76% 77% 77% No data 77% No data
M F M F M F M F M F M F
Male and female illiteracy 10% 15% 34% 48% 24% 29% 23% 24% 10% 11% 24% 30%
33
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
ways of life, culture, and governance. In Mexico the result of displacement because of war and
and Guatemala, they form a large part of the the increasingly precarious rural economy. As a
demographic composition (13 per cent and 49 result of this mass displacement, cities and towns
per cent respectively). In Honduras, El Salvador, in the region house huge numbers of the now
and Nicaragua the proportion varies between 4 urban poor, in settlements where the living
per cent and 7 per cent of the total population. conditions, lack of basic services, and
(In the areas where these communities are unemployment all increase their vulnerability.
concentrated, however, they may be the majority The disasters of the greatest magnitude occur
or sole ethnic group.) The needs of indigenous along the highly populated Pacific coastline, and
populations are highly relevant to emergency the majority of the urban poor of the region
work, because the areas where they live are also have suffered sudden volcanic eruptions,
those which are at very high risk. earthquakes, and landslides.
The indigenous communities are highly Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El
marginalised and hence exhibit high levels of Salvador all register high annual levels of
poverty. This is because they lack resources and growth in the urban population (4.0, 4.7, 4.1,
access to services, and because of their and 3.6 per cent respectively), which will
geographical inaccessibility, which is a product continue to rise as young people are forced out
of their exclusion from prevailing socio- of deprived rural areas and have no alternative
economic systems. If we add to this their but to move to the cities. These young migrants
marginalisation from established channels of increase the levels of urban poverty, which is
expression, and hence from participating in further aggravated by the fact that none of the
making decisions that affect their lives, we can countries has any plans for urban development.
see that they are left very vulnerable in the event Precarious settlements continue to spread
of disasters. It is precisely this level of exclusion chaotically, with bad use of land. These
that has led many of these groups in Guatemala,
settlements generally have no services and face
Mexico, and Nicaragua in particular to
great risks, as they are situated on hillsides, are
strengthen their organisational structures.
structurally unsound, and are built with
Some have even entered into conflict with the
inadequate materials.
dominant groups to find and express solutions
to their needs. While increased urbanisation has meant that
the rural population has decreased, war across
wide areas of the countryside, and now
Progressive rural exclusion and structural adjustment have led to increasing
increasingly vulnerable cities marginalisation and poverty in rural areas.
The population of the region -has become What is more, the contraction and slowing down
increasingly urbanised. Unlike the urbanisation of the agricultural export industry, owing to the
of the 1960s and 1970s, which was caused by crisis in international prices, has created
processes of industrialisation, the latest phase is widespread unemployment in rural areas,
Costa Rica 46.0 53.6 17 19 54.0 46.4 33.3 38.8 50.0 3.1
34
Assessment of vulnerability
where incomes depend on permanent or for sewage disposal are similarly lacking, and
seasonal work. Moreover, structural adjustment even more disturbingly a large number of urban
measures have curtailed the aid and credit households are not connected to sewage
programmes that supported the fragile systems, but have latrines.
economies of small and medium-sized There is serioDs over-crowding and
producers and have reduced them to inadequate housing infrastructure, for example
subsistence level. Cuts in public spending, walls made of bahareque (mud and wattle) or
principally on education and health care, have wood, and earth floors. A very high proportion of
also had a fundamental impact on the rural households use wood-stoves. In addition,
population, whose access to these services is settlements have not been planned, but have
increasingly limited. grown organically as poor families have migrated
All the Central American countries have or resettled, which is the reason for the
shown an increase in rural poverty, with proliferation of improvised houses on hillsides
Guatemala and Honduras reflecting this most and in high-risk locations. These people are more
drastically. The rural areas have also suffered greatly exposed to earthquakes and the collapse
disasters, both natural and conflict-related. of the hillsides around the edges of towns.
Wide areas fluctuate between flooding and With the exception of Costa Rica, all the
drought, with conditions exacerbated by the countries have continued to build up an
high level of deforestation, in areas where soil increasing housing deficit, which is becoming
and woodland have not been properly ever more difficult to resolve. Indeed, the
managed. The degradation of soil, woodland, problem is being aggravated by the influx of
and water resources also means that the rural migrants and by people moving house
productivity of small and medium-sized farms
within cities, putting great pressure on urban
will be reduced.
land. This has often resulted in clashes and
violence, and the press reports people being
Inadequate housing forcibly evicted on a daily basis, with no
The day-to-day living conditions and hygiene of alternative accommodation provided for them
the majority of families in the region, which are by their governments.
a product of chronic poverty, are the most The collapse of the slopes of the San Salvador
crucial factors in evaluating their level of volcano in 1982, which occurred as a result of a
protection or vulnerability in the face of combination of heavy rains and deforestation,
disasters. Nearly one third of families lack access serves as a good illustration: 50 people living in
to services like clean drinking water. The the precarious settlements on the slopes died,
situation is even more serious in rural areas, 2,400 people were injured, 120 houses were
where, with the exception of Costa Rica, all the completely destroyed, and losses suffered by
countries show alarming deficiencies. Services other households were estimated at US$0.5m.
Honduras 41 67 81 53 96 61 62 64 No data
Mexico 62 77 90 66 81 29 no data 57 35
35
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
Illnesses preventable by 0 10 14 16 4 2
immunisation
Under-nourishment 1 7 7 4 6 2.7
36
Assessment of vulnerability
reproductive health of women, which is an of peripheral health centres but also in the
expression of the gender discrimination inherent introduction of charges in mobile clinics and in
in the system. hospitals. Resources and qualified personnel are
There is a noticeably high rate of maternal concentrated in urban centres, while private
mortality in Guatemala and Honduras, which health services, which mainly cover urban areas,
both have a rate of 22 deaths per 10,000 live have increased. Most public services suffer from
births, followed by Nicaragua with 15 per 10,000. permanent shortages of countless essentials and
It should however be noted that the national equipment.
averages obscure differences across states or All this paints a picture of a situation in which
departments, and even between urban and rural health services have a reduced capacity to meet
areas. For example, a study of the state of Tlaxcala the growing demands of a population that is
in Mexico found that the maternal mortality there more exposed than ever to the risk of disease and
was almost three times the national average, death, as a result of everyday living conditions.
approaching 19 per 10,000 live births.
Vulnerability, which is already high, is increasing
The health services in the region have because of the current political climate.
deteriorated in recent years (see Table 11),
principally because of fiscal policy and cuts in
social spending. Only in Costa Rica and El Malnutrition and under-nourishment
Salvador has the ratio of inhabitants per doctor A crucial aspect in determining the vulnerability
improved. Reform of health services has begun of communities is their degree of food security
with budget cuts, resulting not only in the closure (Table 12). Evidendy poverty and unemployment
% Hospital births 97 66 23 63 42 45
37
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
determine the level of consumption and nutrition which are directly related to patterns of
of a household. This is even more the case when economic growth and the political and social
the purchasing power of the salaries of those in organisation of a country. It is not sheer
work provides no guarantees. Starting with a coincidence that the most deprived areas and
value of 100 in 1980, the only country that has communities in the region have been the sites
maintained that level of salary is Honduras (99.9 and protagonists of the conflicts that raged in
per cent). As for the rest of the countries, in some the 1980s, nor that they have suffered when
the level has been moderately reduced, for natural disasters have struck. A cycle of poverty,
example in Costa Rica (to 86.7 per cent of the conflict, and recurrent loss of lives and
former value) and Guatemala (78.4 per cent), and resources as a result of emergencies has
in others it has been drastically reduced, for developed, which has weakened people's
example in El Salvador (to 34 per cent) and capacity to participate in an on-going process of
Nicaragua (to 12.4 percent). sustainable human development. In each cycle
Evidently families have developed survival things are gained and then lost as circumstances
strategies which range from participating in the fluctuate, and in the majority of cases survival
growth of the informal urban sector (principally merely means starting again in a worse
in commercial activities), to prostitution, delin- condition, ready to begin the next cycle.
quency, and, in the last few years, migration. This The living conditions of vulnerable groups
has not only sustained families in receipt of are deteriorating in contrast with the general
payments but has also provided one of the main trends in the economies of the countries in the
sources of income for countries, principally El region. On the whole, the countries of the
Salvador (around US$1.2m, or double the value
region are demonstrating increasingly better
of exports), Guatemala and Nicaragua (about
health standards, while the poor, the
US$350m a year, equivalent to the total value of
indigenous peoples, women, and children
exports). In these three countries, families in
the great majority all remain extremely
receipt of this income spend it almost exclusively
vulnerable in the face of the risks to which they
on food (82 per cent or more), so it can be
are exposed. Natural disasters and conflicts
assumed that it provides the sole or most
important source of income for these families. have always affected the poorest people most,
and Mexico and Central America are no
In addition, structural adjustment pro-
exception. The livelihoods and resources lost in
grammes have further restricted support for
the many disasters that have occurred have
agricultural production, except in the export
rarely been recuperated. The same areas and
industry. This has caused food production to
groups affected in the past are those that are still
slow down and increased the amount of food
exposed to the greatest risks today, in situations
imported and the degree of food dependency.
Costa Rica is the only country where production of high and increasing vulnerability.
is increasing and imports decreasing. As a result, To sum up, the entire region is exposed to a
there are deficiencies in terms of calorie intake, high risk in the face of all types of threat, but the
and apart from Costa Rica and Mexico (despite most vulnerable groups are those living in the
their greater dependency) food consumption in areas that also show the greatest levels of
all the countries is apparently well below the poverty, and, with the exception of Costa Rica,
necessary level. Levels of acute under-nutrition which has managed to improve its living
(weight/height) in children are very high, as is standards, the link between poverty and
stunting of growth, seen in 35-50 per cent of vulnerability remains a constant and a
school-age children. The number of under- challenge.
weight births continues to be widely under-
recorded, as figures tell only of births in health-
care institutions, i.e. a very low proportion. Even A country-by-country view of
so, the rate is high, reflecting not only the social vulnerability
vulnerability of the infant but also the degree of
under-nutrition of mothers, seen also in the This section aims to give a basic overview of the
index of body weight. communities facing the greatest levels of risks in
This all means that the degree of the event of emergencies, and to describe the
vulnerability, although defined according to the general conditions prevailing in zones
risk of a given threat, is essentially determined categorised as 'high risk' in Mexico, Guatemala,
by levels of marginalisation and exclusion, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
38
Assessment of vulnerability
39
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
40
Assessment of vulnerability
Chiapas: politics and low-intensity war especially in the wake of the critical judgements
The prolonged suspension of dialogue between of the Inter-American Human Rights
the federal government of Mexico and the Commission and the UN Committee for the
Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) has Elimination of Racial Discrimination.
seriously jeopardised the peace process. In The involvement of Mexican civil society in
December 1996, the government rejected a the peace process has been fundamental to its
legislative proposal drawn up by the commission progress to date, with an Encuentro National par
created to assist with the peace process, that the la Paz (National Assembly for Peace) having
San Andres accords on Indigenous Rights and involved 91 organisations in 19 states. The
Culture should be implemented. The influence that international economic interests
government insists that its own alternative could have on developments in the Chiapas
proposal is consistent with the peace accords, conflict underlines the importance of the
although many observers disagree and accuse international community making an active and
the government of breaking the accords and far-reaching commitment to the search for a fair
deliberately undermining the peace process. and lasting peace.
The Peace Conciliation Commission Various factors related to the conflict are
(COCOPA) insists that its proposal, which was having an influence on the levels of risks and
presented to the parties as an ultimatum after vulnerability. Among these are militarisation,
months of talks, should be upheld. However, in food insecurity, poor health, and forced
March 1997, COCOPA declared ambiguously migration.
that 'the text could be improved' and declined to
Militarisation: In the last three years the
present it to Congress without the support of the
Executive. The EZLN continues to demand military presence in Chiapas has increased from
certain minimum conditions for the peace talks 5,000 soldiers to 75,000, with negative
to resume and is reluctant to negotiate new terms consequences for the economic, social, political,
while the existing accords remain incomplete. and environmental life of the local communities.
Meanwhile, a new wave of violence in Chiapas An artificial economy prevails, due to the
has once again drawn public attention to the (unsustainable) demand for services, which
stagnant peace process and the increasing women are largely expected to meet. This is
instability of the state. In the northern zone, putting great pressure on local resources and
which is under siege, paramilitary groups have aggravating the socio-environmental crisis,
imposed a repressive regime on some areas, principally in terms of food and firewood. The
resulting in confrontations, murders, robberies, demand for services like laundry, fetching
and displacement of people from their homes. A wood and water, and the preparation of
number of events, such as land disputes, have tortillas and other food has increased women's
served as major flash-points for confrontations workload and diminished their capacity to
and for the arrest and torture of innocent attend to the needs of their own families.
people. The impunity enjoyed by the security
forces and the paramilitary groups, and the The high level of prostitution is a response to
discriminatory treatment that is meted out to the military presence and the economic
indigenous people who do not support the impact of the conflict on the population.
ruling party are all evidence of grave Women have been forced to offer sexual
deficiencies in the administration ofjustice. services for money, and parents have obliged
their daughters to prostitute themselves to
An increased military presence in Chiapas and create a source of income. This surge in
other states where there has been conflict, prostitution is also linked to the lack of viable
including parts of Mexico City, has reinforced opportunities for women to earn money,
the fear that the government is leaning towards a which is in itself a consequence of
military rather than a political solution, and is inadequacies in the aid systems, including
employing a strategy of low-intensity war. In a social and productive projects.
situation of such great tension, with little hope of
progress in the negotiations and with troops The feeble economies of these communities
attacking and even killing communities who have been strongly affected by the military
sympathise with the EZLN, the ceasefire seems presence. Animal grazing has been curtailed
increasingly fragile. The continuation of fighting for reasons of security, and wool production,
may also tarnish the government's credibility which represents an important source of
both within Mexico and internationally, household income, has declined.
41
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
Responsibility for looking after the home, This is a problem that has only just begun to
supporting the family economically, and appear on the agenda of local organisations.
keeping the community together is falling Hence there is no expertise in the area, and
more and more to women, given that the men follow-up in conflict situations has not been
have either had to emigrate or must meet systematic, making it difficult to obtain detailed
military obligations to their communities. In information on the communities affected. The
some areas, for example Los Altos (which most significant migrations are occurring in the
comprises 22 municipalities and 2,000 northern zone towards the centre of the region
communities), the burden of family and and Tuxtla Gutierrez (the state capital), and
community responsibilities has fallen to from the border area to neighbouring zones.
women and girls. Women have become the de Recently displacement has been occurring with
facto heads of their households, and their great frequency, apparently as part of a wider
work has become the principal source of military strategy; some 20,000 people are directly
family income. This area is also affected by affected. Summary displacements take place
drought, which intensifies the already high without people being given the chance to gadier
degree of vulnerability of these families. together the bare necessities for subsistence.
Typically, the evictions are associated with rape,
Health standards, especially in the zones the burning down of houses, and the destruction
where most fighting has taken place, have of crops. In one incident witnessed by us in the
seriously deteriorated. Psychosomatic course of the mapping exercise, the community
illnesses are now frequent, especially in did not have time to gather together even basic
women, who are under great pressure, face belongings or food for the children. Families were
harassment and abuse, and have to bear the left on the streets, with only their dogs and their
emotional burden of knowing that they and resolve to return to reclaim their land once die
their families are in constant danger. BOM (the Joint Operations Brigade) had
withdrawn.
The presence of soldiers in the community
has resulted in intimidation, fear, and Displaced and returning families are highly
psychological pain. It prevents women from vulnerable. Having lost their homes and often
going freely about their work and their daily having to relocate in a place where they are not
business, and restricts their access to services. able to do their normal work, they have no
It has also caused an increase in alcoholism resources with which to re-start their lives. They
and drug addiction, especially among young need housing materials, tools, cooking utensils,
people. The military cynically use this as a medicines, food, and seeds. There is an urgent
pretext for their presence, claiming that they need for local organisations to be helped to
are needed to ensure 'the rule of law'. develop an assistance strategy.
The cutting down of trees in conservation Food insecurity: Food insecurity currently
areas is a consequence of the militarisation, threatens about 1.5 million people in Chiapas.
the effects of which cannot be measured in the The problem is becoming increasingly acute
short term but will certainly have a great because of the conflict, and also because of
impact in the future. drought and marked environmental degra-
dation. Food insecurity is caused by a
Production has been drastically reduced. combination of factors.
Vegetable plots, for example, have had to be
abandoned because of continuous alarms. Land insecurity and lack of access to land.
The effects of a 'militarised culture' extend Restricted food supplies, because of the
strong military presence and the actions of
beyond the present day and will affect future
paramilitary groups. The troops' demand for
generations.
food is causing food supplies to run out and
Forced migration: Forced migration is an impor- shortages of basic products in Chiapas.
tant risk factor in conflicts. It involves individuals
Lack of income for rural families.
and communities being uprooted and displaced,
as well as people returning to their former homes. Moderate to severe droughts which are
It is estimated that more than 5,000 families in occurring frequently in the state, especially in
Chiapas are currently undergoing some form of the highlands and in the Sierra of Motozintla.
forced displacement, the majority as a result of Drought is ultimately one of the most critical
inter-community conflicts (provoked by para- factors in food insecurity, along with
militaries) and land disputes. deteriorating quality of soiL
42
Assessment of vulnerability
43
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
an increasing presence and degree of firm and lasting peace. This marked a new era
organisation in other sectors of civil society. In for the Guatemalan people, as the country
response to this, from 1978 to 1982, one of the emerged from disaster and entered a period of
most repressive regimes in the history of reconstruction.
Guatemala came into power. This regime The reconstruction began by ensuring that
isolated the country from the international displaced communities were re-integrated into
community at the height of the economic crisis society, and among them 'the returned'. The
affecting Guatemala and the other Latin process of return has, however, been long and
American nations. In the midst of an electoral slow. To date there are 34 returned
fraud in 1982, institutional crisis, struggles communities, with more than 20 established in
within the army, and increasingly severe the former conflict areas, mainly in the
economic decline, Guatemala suffered several Department of Quiche. The return process has
coups d'etat. For four years, de facto military encountered problems of access to land and
regimes were installed, espousing the new resources; but, even with these difficulties to
military creed of'Security and Development' in face, communities are determined to
the context of the army's counter-insurgency reintegrate. They have the support of various
strategies: the result was that up to 70,000 people programmes and institutions to help them
were murdered or 'disappeared'; more than 500 achieve this, in line with the conditions set out in
villages were totally destroyed; hundreds of the peace accords. In addition, on returning to
thousands of people were displaced, and more the country, they have received a level of
than 10,000 sought refuge in other countries; assistance from UNHCR (material, technical,
60,000 people were relocated to 'model villages' and financial) which has put them in a better
(strategic hamlets), and at least 500,000 had to position than the rest of the population who
live within 'development areas'. All this was stayed in Guatemala and bore the brunt of the
accompanied by economic destruction and mass cruelty and war. This disparity is in some cases
impoverishment, especially in the countryside: causing difficulties between communities.
the worst catastrophe that the country has ever While in exile in Mexico, the refugees
suffered. developed many skills and capacities and
Although after 1986 an 'opening up to received a basic education. The women became
democracy' was announced a project designed organised, enrolled in literacy programmes,
by the army that allowed civil governments to be and managed various projects and other
established through free elections ^=~ the activities. It has proved hard for them to
corruption that characterised these elections maintain these levels of leadership on returning
caused a new political crisis. This culminated in to Guatemala. In many cases, their physical
the coup of May 1993, effected by the President of return has meant a return to their traditional
the Republic himself, and a new President was roles, and their organisations and political
nominated by the Congress. The year 1994 was activities have fallen by the wayside.
marked by political struggle between state In this phase of rehabilitation and
powers, and elections for a new Congress were reconstruction, the communities who were
held. Barely 15 per cent of voters participated in displaced are of primary importance, among
them, demonstrating an enormous loss of them groups who have returned, demobilised,
confidence in the political system in Guatemala at been displaced internally, or repatriated, as they
that time. In short, the combination of increased have an important role to play in rebuilding the
political and economic deterioration during the social fabric of the country. These relocated
first half of the 1980s and continuing armed communities are principally located in the
conflict within the country exposed Guatemala western highlands, the north, central Peten, and
which already had high levels of poverty, the south-coast regions. About half of them live
marginalisation, and social polarisation, a lack of in Quiche. These zones have been identified as
basic services, and an obsolete and inefficient being at very high risk, because of both the threat
institutional system to unprecedented stresses. of natural disasters (seismic and volcanic activity,
As a result of the unsustainable situation in floods, landslides, and droughts) and human
the country and external political and economic factors, which are equally important. These
pressure, the peace accords were signed in areas have also suffered great environmental
December 1996. The major challenge now was deterioration, with the highest levels of
to ensure that these accords were observed deforestation in the country, impoverished soil
within a framework of democracy to ensure a with alarming levels of deterioration of its
44
Assessment of vulnerability
capacity for production, and pollution of water years not to mention the 37 per cent of
sources by agro-chemicals. Unfortunately, children who do not attend school. Only 60 per
female participation in the negotiations for the cent of the population have access to clean
return was not very high, and this in part drinking water. The consequences of the lack of
explains why the relocation sites are sometimes health services, drinking water, and food are
distant from sources of water or urban centres. seen in the high rate of infant mortality. Of the
Nor has it been easy for the communities to total deaths registered in the country, more than
continue with their productive activities, since 42 per cent are of children under the age of five.
there are no commercial outlets or local markets, Poverty has significantly increased and is
and they cannot obtain raw materials. For growing at 5.3 per cent each year. In 1990, 63
example, many of the former refugees know how per cent of households were living in poverty
to sew and how to make hammocks, but there is and 32 per cent in a state of extreme poverty. It
nowhere to buy thread, and no one to buy their is calculated that current figures have increased
products in any case. A return to basic to 80 per cent and 55 per cent respectively, with
subsistence farming is all they can rely on. All the greatest levels of poverty concentrated in the
these geophysical, social, and economic factors central highlands. Urban poverty has also
place these communities at high risk. increased, and it is estimated that in the
If the overall socio-economic conditions metropolitan area there are more than 800,000
prevailing in Guatemala are difficult, they are people living in more than 240 precarious
worse still among the displaced and relocated settlements. The proportion of the population
communities in the high-risk zones. Life that is economically active is the highest it has
expectancy is the lowest in Central America, at been for 10 years: of these, 55 per cent work in
63 years; the average rate of adult illiteracy is at agriculture, 14 per cent in industry, 17 per cent
least 43 per cent, but in rural areas it is in the service sector, and 14 per cent in the
approaching almost 72 per cent and in some business sector. However, agriculture constitutes
places it is over 80 per cent. Illiteracy among 25 per cent of national production, which
women is the highest in Latin America. The indicates that most farmers practise subsistence
proportion of children aged between 7 and 14 farming: 2.2 per cent of Guatemala's
years who attend school is 63 per cent, but fewer landowners own 65 per cent of the country's
than half of these manage to complete one or fertile farm-land.
more levels of primary education, only nine per Population growth is one of the highest in
cent obtain a secondary level education, and Latin America, at 2.9 per cent p.a. The fertility
hardly two per cent reach university level. rate is 5.9 children per woman of child-bearing
Only 3.3 per cent of the Guatemalan GNP is age. Practically half of the population of
spent on health care, resulting in a situation Guatemala is aged less than 15, and the average
where 46 per cent of the population has no access age is 22 years. Almost 62 per cent of Guatemala's
to any kind of medical attention. The health population live in rural areas, which makes it the
system covers only 25 per cent of the population, country with the smallest urban population in
the social security institute a further 15 per cent, Latin America. At the same time, 31 per cent of
and the private sector 14 per cent. The ratio of the population lives in the capital city and half in
hospital beds per person is 1/800, and half of the the department of Guatemala (the highest
beds in public hospitals and four out of five beds concentration in Latin America).
in private hospitals are in the metropolitan area. A significant characteristic of Guatemala is
These are the official figures: other sources the fact that at least half of the population is
indicate that only one in three Guatemalans has Mayan, from some 21 distinct ethno-linguistic
access to health services, given the calamitous groups. Once again, poverty has caused a great
state of public facilities. One study showed that deterioration in their living conditions, and 80
more than one-third of users of official health per cent of those living in poverty are
services in rural areas had to travel 12km on indigenous people. In some regions, the
average to reach the nearest facility (OPS/PAHO, population is mainly Mayan, for example in
1996). This is more difficult for women, Quiche, Huehuetenango, and Las Verapaces
considering that their mobility is always more (all high-risk zones). In these regions there is
restricted by their responsibility for looking after only one doctor for every 10,000 inhabitants,
the household and children. and the illiteracy rate is over 80 per cent. There
Levels of malnutrition are very high, for is also a total absence of services like telephones,
example in schoolchildren aged between 6 and 9 electricity, and safe drinking water.
45
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
46
Assessment, of vulnerability
High levels of illiteracy, especially where there centres), combined with maternal malnutrition.
are marked differences between the sexes, The fertility rate is high, at more than five
restrict the access of women to resources. This children per woman, and female contraceptive
helps to explain why, in an emergency situation, use is low at 50 per cent.
they remain at the margins when assistance is
offered. Given the large distances between rural Honduras
communities and health centres, their prospects
are very poor. Honduras comes after Nicaragua in the UNDP
Human Development Index, occupying 114lh
position, even though many of its social
El Salvador indicators have moderately improved. The
El Salvador, with a population of 6 million living GNP per capita is approaching US$600 a year,
in 21,000 km2 (an area roughly the size of Wales), which is the equivalent of the GNP recorded in
is the most densely populated country in the the 1970s. Although just over half of the 6.5m
region, with 270 inhabitants per km-' and one- population live in rural areas, only 20 per cent of
quarter of the population living in the capital city. GNP comes from agricultural production,
Although 55 per cent of the people live in rural suggesting that most rural families live and work
areas, barely 9 per cent of the GNP comes from at subsistence level.
agricultural production. In a context of rural Marginalisation in Honduras does not run
deprivation, along with structural adjustment solely along socio-economic, urban/rural, or
measures that aim to strengthen the service sector gender lines. There are also great geographical
(business, banks, and tourism) and industry, the inequalities, meaning that almost all the
rural population survive through subsistence communities in certain departments or regions
farming and monthly remittances from relatives are socially excluded; and the most marginalised
in the USA. The aggregate income from these areas are also those at greatest risk of natural
remittances, together with the cancellation of the disasters. The levels of poverty in Honduras are
debt to the USA (US$464m), has allowed the similar to those in other countries in the region,
country to create the economic reserves necessary with 75 per cent of households classified as being
to counter the effects of recession and inflation, on the poverty line, which corresponds to 64 per
and explains El Salvador's economic 'stability' in cent of urban households and 87 per cent of
the post-war period. households in rural areas. However, in high-risk
Levels of poverty are high: 75 per cent of the areas such as western and southern Honduras,
population is classified as poor, with extreme nine households in ten are on the poverty line,
poverty at 52 per cent. The distribution of poverty according to the Department of Social Planning.
reflects the pattern of the war, with the former They are also the areas with the highest levels of
conflict zones showing the greatest concentration. illiteracy, way above the national level of 32 per
Poverty is particularly high in the rural areas, with cent, reaching 46 per cent in western Honduras
36 per cent ofcampesino farmers living in extreme and 37 per cent in the south. Living conditions
poverty. In 1990, half of the 0.5m people are similarly worse than average in these two
dependent on the informal urban economy were areas. The levels of overcrowding, lack of access
women, of whom 70 per cent were earning just to drinking water, and lack of basic sanitation are
US$2 per day. Of the households living in 18 per cent, 53 per cent, and 56 per cent higher
extreme poverty, 36 per cent were headed by respectively than the national average. The
women and 52 per cent of such households were national maternal death rate is 220 per 100,000
headed by an illiterate adult. In 1992, the adult live births, and is likely to be higher still in these
illiteracy rate was 23 per cent and was five times as two areas of Honduras. Almost half of those living
high in the rural areas as in the towns. in the rural areas have no access to health care.
The principal causes of death from disease
are intestinal infections, respiratory illnesses,
and sickness caused by parasites. The infant Nicaragua
mortality rate is 57.4 per 1,000 live births, Time and again Nicaragua has borne the brunt of
though this rises to 73 in the areas affected by the natural disasters that have occurred in the
the war. The maternal mortality rate is one of region over the last two decades. The Pacific
the highest in the continent. The principal region is a very high-risk area, because of the high
causes are haemorrhages and septicaemia (only probability of a combination of multiple threats
53 per cent of births take place in health occurring, including drought. The Atlantic
47
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
region is also at high risk, principally because of health centres, and meal centres for children
its level of marginalisation, and the high (comedores infantiles). The reduction in the health
probability of hurricanes and floods occurring. budget has meant fewer health services and a
Nicaragua has experienced the fastest rate of rapid deterioration in the quality of those that
social and economic deterioration of all the remain, with the resulting consequences for
Latin American countries in the last decade, and basic health standards (Agurto 1997).
is now the second poorest in the hemisphere
after Haiti. It fell to 117th position in the UNDP Table 16: Vulnerability among
1996 Human Development Index, and its GNP Nicaraguan women
per capita (US$390) is the equivalent of that of
the 1950s in other words, it has fallen back by
50 years. While in the 1985 socio-demographic Indicators Value
survey 64 per cent of households were below the
Widows 8% of all women (183,683
poverty line, the 1993 figure had risen to 75 per
women)
cent, with those living in extreme poverty rising
from 27 per cent to 40 per cent of the Households headed 28% of households
population. Some 60 per cent of urban by women
households and 85 per cent of rural households
are now classified as poor. Illiteracy (age 10+) 24%
Nicaragua's cities are also growing at the
fastest rate in Latin America, with 66 per cent of Causes of female 1. Accidents
the population now living in urban areas. Fifty mortality (all ages)* 2. Circulatory illnesses
3. Perinatal Causes
per cent of GNP comes from service industries,
4. Tumours
20 per cent from manufacturing, and 30 per
cent from agricultural production. However, Causes of illness in 1. Circulatory illnesses
unemployment stands at 21 per cent, and women 2. Perinatal causes
under-employment at 53 per cent. The decline 3. Tumours (26% affecting the
in purchasing power even for those with salaries reproductive organs)
has been dramatic: a salary worth 100 units in
1980 is now equivalent to a salary of 14 units. Maternal mortality 6.8% per 10,000 live births
The minimum wage covers less than one-third
of staple goods (almost exclusively food). Source: FLACSO, 1997
Despite the reduction of illiteracy to 13 per * not necessarily the primary causes of death
cent during the period of revolutionary
Sandinista rule in the 1980s, primary-school
drop-out rates and the disuse of literacy skills Nicaraguan women have a strong presence in
have pushed national illiteracy levels back to 29 the informal economic sector, and it is not
per cent or more. (The average rate in the unusual for it to be the woman who finances the
Pacific region stands at 13 per cent, because of purchase of seed for the annual harvest with
greater access to services, but the figure for the money obtained from selling food, clothes,
Atlantic coastal region is approaching 33 per fruit, etc. This is because 43 per cent of rural
cent.) However, Nicaragua is the only country in women work principally in the business and
the region where women's levels of literacy and service sectors, compared with 17 per cent of
average schooling are equal to or even greater men. At the same time, 45 per cent of rural
than those of men. This can be attributed to women work in agriculture, producing mainly
more than a decade of war, and also to the sesame seed, potatoes, coffee, sugar cane, and
seasonal or permanent migration of men in vegetables, raising livestock and farming
search of work, factors which also explain the poultry; as many as three-quarters of rural
high proportion of households headed by women contribute to the raising of small
women which, at 30 per cent nationwide, is the livestock (FIDEG 1996).
highest in the region. The significant participation of women in the
The stabilisation and structural adjustment rural economy points to the importance of
measures have had a negative impact on all involving them to a similar degree in emergency
Nicaraguans, in that public-spending cuts have programmes. Above all they need access to
particularly slashed services which provided for resources to make up for losses suffered in
women's needs - services such as nurseries, rural production, especially because their involvement
48
Assessment of vulnerability
in organisations is limited (see Table 17). On (Leon and Chinandega), with 99 per cent of the
average only one in four women is involved in population classified as poor. This same area
social organisations; of these, 58 per cent belong bore the brunt of the crisis in the agricultural
to savings and credit co-operatives. In the event export sector, with the result that a significant
of an emergency it would be necessary to identify proportion of people who were formerly agri-
viable channels for resources so that they benefit cultural wage-labourers now exists without any
women and their families. chance of employment and no land for
subsistence. The rest of the rural population are
Table 17: Involvement of women in social campesino farmers, living on arid land with little
organisations in Nicaragua agricultural potential. According to a 1997
UNICEF survey, the drought resulted in
women resorting to cooking roots, banana skins,
Involvement of women % of total % in and guasimo seeds, all of which caused food
in social organisations members positions of poisoning, particularly among children. The
in Nicaragua leadership greatest effects of natural disasters, such as the
eruption of the Cerro Negro volcano, the 1992
Rural organisations 15.5% No data
tidal wave, and the recent drought, have also
Farming co-operatives 14.3% 8.9% been concentrated in this same area.
The region's infant-mortality rate is lower
Savings and credit co-ops 57.8% 35.9% than the national average, principally because it
is better served by health centres (60 per cent of
Industrial/artisanal co-ops 32.8% 26.1% Nicaragua's health services are concentrated in
Managua and the departmental capitals of this
Fishing co-ops 9.2% 8.5% region). By contrast, the infant-mortality rate
for the Atlantic Coast is 34 per cent higher than
Source: FIDEG 1996 the national average, not only because of the
level of poverty but also because of extremely
limited access to health care. Childhood
Women on the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua, a malnutrition is high (29 per cent) for Nicaragua
high-risk zone, experience greater levels of as a whole, though far higher still among poor
vulnerability than those on the Pacific Coast, for and extremely poor households. Significantly, a
various reasons. Here they have even less 1991 survey found that 71 per cent of salaried
involvement in community organisations, households had a calorie-deficient diet, and 55
although the figure varies according to cultural per cent ate less protein than necessary (Agurto
and ethnic groups. In most cases, it is the men 1997). Despite the correlation between women-
who manage the resources for the community, headed households and (extreme) poverty, food
through organisations like communal com- deficiencies were higher overall in households
missions (comisiones comunales). This has headed by men. This suggests that women are
important implications for emergency situations, better than men at managing and distributing
because of the central role that such groups play: household resources, even when fewer
when disasters strike, the needs of women are resources are available.
often not identified by the commissions, and it is In terms of housing, well over one-third of
through them that resources are channelled. An households on the Pacific Coast and almost half
exceptionally high proportion of households is of those on the Atlantic Coast are over-crowded;
headed by women: almost half of all households many have earth floors and lack clean drinking
in Bonanza (a mining zone), for instance. In water or basic sanitation. Such households are
addition to these factors, the geographical highly vulnerable to the threat of flooding and
marginalisation of the Atlantic Coast makes hurricanes, to which they are greatly exposed.
emergency response, prevention, and mitigation The combined impacts of the Cerro Negro
work more difficult. eruption and the recent drought on the
The Pacific region of Nicaragua enjoys the northern Pacific Coast merit special attention
lion's share of the country's infrastructure and here, partly because of the effects on women and
services. It is also the most densely populated girls. The very high levels of maternal and infant
area of the country. However, the region also malnutrition in the area, added to food
registers the greatest levels of rural poverty in shortages caused by the drought, make
the country, principally in the western area pregnant or nursing women highly vulnerable.
49
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
Many premature births are already caused by them to buy maize, not only eliminating the
the mother's poor nutritional status, and health alternative food sources so important for
workers fear that this situation will become even safeguarding the food security of the family, but
more acute in the coming months, because of also reducing the intake of calories and protein
increasing food shortages. The effects of the which these provide (eggs, milk, chicken), thus
drought go beyond basic grain production, intensifying the impact of this disaster and their
extending to vegetable produce and affecting
vulnerability to subsequent catastrophes. Water
the raising of small livestock, which are the main
has also become scarce in the area, with wells of
productive activities involving women. Diseases
and the burning of grazing land have killed the up to 190m in depth now dry or yielding only
weeds, insects, worms, and other organisms on very contaminated and dirty water. Families are
which hens and pigs feed, causing sickness and rationing the use of water to levels that are
starvation in some animals. Where the animals inadequate to maintain decent standards of
have survived, women have been forced to sell hygiene as well as for drinking and cooking.
50
4 Assessment of local capacity
It is important, but it can be difficult, to assess Since 1996, regional initiatives to improve
existing capacity to respond to an emergency: gender-related responses to emergencies have
firstly because there may not be access to been promoted under the co-ordination of
information about the nature of the situation; CEPREDENAC, whose strategic plan includes
and secondly because of the large number of ensuring a focus on gender in all its work, with
factors to be taken into account. the aim of promoting women's participation in
This section is divided into three parts. The first the prevention and mitigation of disasters. One
looks at the institutional framework for managing of the first tasks of its Gender Co-ordination Unit
disasters and tries to identify and assess the was to consult with women throughout the
capacity of regional, national, and local actors in region who were involved in disaster-related
Mexico and Central America, especially those work, and to establish new mechanisms for
institutions established by law for this purpose. mutual learning and for participation. This
The second examines some of the relevant civil- consultation process led to the First Constructive
society organisations. The third covers a selection Central American Meeting on 'Gender and
of actors and initiatives which contribute to Disaster Culture', held in November 1996. This
building capacity to respond to emergencies in produced the following action plan for 1997:
the region, or which may start to include this in the
To carry out a participative investigation into
future. We have not included here any details
gender, in order to examine the involvement
about local NGOs, except where these have a
of Central American women in disaster-
legally defined function, since this information is
related work.
necessarily somewhat ephemeral and incomplete.
To incorporate a gender focus in the activities
developed by national and regional actors in
disasters.
The institutional framework
To design and reproduce material for public
The only regional institution to have made dissemination on gender and disasters,
important contributions to providing specifically in relation to the socio-cultural
management support for the reduction of natural conditions in each country.
disasters in Central America is CEPREDENAC. It
supports its members by improving their capacity To hold a national workshop on gender and
to monitor dangerous natural phenomena, disasters, aimed at training staff from
particularly those related to earthquakes, government institutions and NGOs involved
volcanoes, and wet-weather systems. It also in disasters; to undertake training activities in
focuses on the mapping of threats and risks in the each country; to promote the inclusion of a
region. A new emphasis in its recent work has gender focus in disaster training at national
been to seek effective links between national and regional levels.
processes and local management capacity. To set up an office for the Regional Gender
This is clearly the most important and stable Co-ordination Unit.
institution in the region, as much in the policy
aspects as in its capacity to build relationships To hold a second regional meeting on gender
with a variety of regional and international and disasters.
organisations. Its weaknesses reflect the inability A proposal and budget have been prepared, but
of some of the member countries to define their to date funds have not been forthcoming.
priorities in thefieldof disaster reduction, and to However, the regional team still carries out
attract appropriate funding; and also the some activities, which have included
problems it faces in promoting disaster establishing women's groups focused on the
prevention, particularly in the political arena. theme of gender and disasters in all the Central
51
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
American countries, although not in Mexico. request from the municipal-, state, and federal
The groups consist mainly of women who authorities successively. This is important, since
specialise in disasters or gender and represent in theory each state or municipality should have
various civil organisations, but they also include the capacity and resources to respond to any
representatives of various ministries in each type of disaster. However, depending on the
country. The initiative is unusual: there are few magnitude of the event, there is the possibility
if any other countries with a national women's that other larger organisations, including
group specifically focused on gender and external ones, will intervene to offer assistance
disasters with such broad-based representation. and support, provided that the immediate
This is an area that could be much strengthened authorities publicly declare an emergency and
by creative international co-operation. formally request their intervention.
At the national level the work is very varied, This decentralised approach is a sensitive and
though there is a degree of homogeneity in the controversial issue, and it can be a matter of life
work related to the development of systems for and death for those at risk. This is because local
the prevention and management of disasters. politicians tend to refrain from declaring
Two important issues emerge here. The first is emergencies, in order to avoid the intervention
the lack of organisations with a sufficiently of the federal bodies and the Armed Forces,
broad vision of the reduction of risks and the which do not have a good record in this area.
consequences of disasters. The second is the In practice, the system has the capacity for
strong presence and dominance of the Armed monitoring and planning for emergencies (Civil
Forces in the organisations that manage Protection Programme 1995-2000) and the
disasters (with the exception of Costa Rica). material resources to ensure an appropriate
We offer a brief summary of the situation in response, provided that the emergency is not on
each country, but give a more detailed account a huge scale. However, the major problem is
of the situation in Mexico, given the complex ensuring the effectiveness of this capacity, given
policy framework for disaster management. the lack of engagement with the populations at
risk. Of course, not all municipal and state
committees are active, and in some areas the
Mexico population rarely takes part in the civil
Following the devastating earthquakes of 19 protection plans. In combination with the
and 20 September 1985 in Mexico City, the political polarisation, such factors are affecting
President created the National Commission for the programme.
Reconstruction. The next year, the National Further, the operational plans do not contain a
System for Civil Protection (SINAPROC) was focus on gender, to judge from the contingency
established by presidential decree. The system plans for eruptions of Popocatepetl and from the
consists of a programme (prevention, assistance, response to Hurricane Pauline in 1997. Imple-
and protection), advice (consultative organis- mentation is in the hands of SINAPROC, state
ations) and a body of volunteers at three levels of governments, presidents and municipal delegates,
government (federal, state, and municipal). The public representatives, and all the technical and
structure integrates staff from the public government bodies. Few women are included in
administration; from the co-ordinating bodies these teams. Nor has the formation of working
among the federations; from the states and groups, emergency brigades, and volunteers
municipalities; and representatives of social taken into account the need to recruit women and
movements which take part in protecting encourage their participation.
civilians. These make up the institutional co- The evacuation plans cover the whole
ordination in the General Management of Civil population, but without giving priority to
Protection in the Government Secretariat pregnant women, old people, and disabled
(DGPC). A technical assessment unit exists people. Nor does the management of refuges
alongside the National Centre for the and hostels take into account the security of
Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED). unaccompanied girls and women, above all to
The main work of this body is to attend to and ensure protection from the sexual harassment
assist the population in case of disaster. Thus, in that often arises among large concentrated
disaster situations the response of the state and populations. To date, no adequate measures
federal institutions (including the Armed have been drawn up, such as special
Forces), as well as that of national and accommodation for vulnerable women, or the
international NGOs, depends upon a formal inclusion of female staff in the protection units.
52
Assessment of local capacity
The products stored in warehouses do not Women's Office, and 10 special guests from the
include items for preparing food. The capital, in the hope that their participation in
experience with Hurricane Pauline illustrated the departmental organisation and decision
this: a week after it struck, the government making would encourage the participation of
finally responded to the demands of women and other women and men in society. In particular,
organised donations of cooking utensils, a need the workshop took note of the increased
that should be predicted in any emergency visibility of and scope for Guatemalan women to
situation. The importance of distributing the participate in the reduction of disasters through
food via the women was not considered, and it various groups, and urged their inclusion in all
had not been recognised that a food-distribution levels of emergency organisations.
system controlled by men flies in the face of Among the proposals are capacity-building
traditional practice in which the women assume and awareness-raising for women on gender
the main role in acquiring and preparing the analysis, in order to encourage the active
food. Overall, the operational plans are not participation of women in the prevention of
based on a consideration of gender, nor on the disasters and in setting up local emergency
affected population's capacity or participation, committees. However, women's participation is
but on the central plans designed in Mexico City, seen in quantitative rather than qualitative terms.
which are almost totally independent of the Though increasing the numbers of women on
communities and their organisations. Essentially, such committees is clearly important, the analysis
the situation is no different in Guatemala and does not include an examination of the ways in
Nicaragua with regard to their respective which disasters affect women and men
government institutions. differently, nor of the particular needs of women
in disaster situations, or the application of a
Guatemala gender perspective in emergency programmes
(for example in distribution systems, the
The National Emergency Committee (CONE) provision of water, and public-health measures).
was founded in 1969 in the wake of Hurricane
Francelia and became a permanent body in
1971. In mid-1994 CONE submitted a draft bill 1 Salvador
for the establishment of the National System The National Committee for Emergencies
for the Reduction of Disasters (SINRED) (COEN), established in September 1976, is a
(prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, leading institution that brings together various
rehabilitation, and reconstruction), taking into relevant actors. Opinions differ with respect to
account international agreements on the need the role of COEN. Some think that 'there is no
for appropriate legislation for disasters. lead organisation in disasters, and COEN
SINRED implements its programmes and continues to be essentially a political body which
action through the National Commission for the hinders any work undertaken by others, and
Reduction of Disasters (CONRED, the new reflects an outmoded view of the issues'
designation for CONE), and each ministry is (personal communication from staff of LA RED).
looking at forming a Unit for the Reduction of Various attempts have been made to create a
Disasters within its structure. The General national system, but none has achieved the
Council is the management body of SINRED; it desired results. The Italians, along with the Pan-
consists of five ministers, representatives from American Health Organisation (PAHO), have
the corporate sector, urban-development advisers played an important role in establishing the
(Planning Secretariat), and media advisers. The Inter-institutional Technical Committee
approval of the law was a surprise to many civil- (COTIDE) to facilitate the decentralisation of
society organisations, because they were not decision-making and to encourage wider
consulted, and the regulations are being drawn participation in order to improve disaster
up without their involvement. prevention and mitigation capacity.
Through the Social Prevention Department,
CONRED aims to encourage various social
sectors to train up in the prevention of natural Honduras
disasters, and is beginning to prioritise the role The System for the Response to and Prevention of
of women. Thus, a workshop was held in Disasters (SAPD) was established in March 1972
October 1995 with leading women from eight with the creation of the Permanent Council for
departments, representatives of the National National Emergencies (COPEN). It aimed to turn
53
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
the Armed Forces into the axis or reference point The women's organisation could play an
for the public, and to extend the state apparatus important part in emergencies at the national
(Romano 1996). In December 1990, COPEN was and local levels, not only in preventive work but
replaced by the Permanent Commission for also in its own emergency programmes. INIM
Contingencies (COPECO). Currently COPECO is is, for example, developing sustainable
trying to set up a system of co-ordination and vegetable gardens in response to the drought,
support at national, regional (military regions), with techniques that might be more widely
departmental, and municipal levels, and to applied, since they are low-cost, simple, and
include community emergency committees. economical in their use of water, as well as
COPECO's executive secretary is appointed enhancing food security. However, the group is
by the President of the country, and the post is well aware of its own need to learn more about
currently held by a high-ranking military gender and disasters: its current members tend
officer. The state secretariats, the Central Bank, to specialise either in emergencies or in gender,
and representatives of some rural associations and there is a need to integrate the two areas,
make up COPECO. However, the most both in theory and in practice.
important peasant organisation in the country,
COCOH, is not invited to participate, while one Costa Rica
that is more sympathetic to the government's
policies has been asked to join. The National Emergencies Commission (CNE)
was established in August 1969 by executive
decree. Its predecessor was the Civil Defence,
Nicaragua which started work in 1965. The CNE has
There has been no overall system for disaster undergone various restructuring processes, and
prevention, mitigation, and response in by 1994 it was an autonomous, specialised, and
Nicaragua. Rather, ordinary citizens have had well-resourced institution which was accorded a
to organise themselves. Successive governments high priority by the government. The CNE has
over the last 25 years have created structures since come under the Ministry of Works and
and laws that have survived somehow or Transport and is fighting to maintain the quality
another, but are not fully used. of its disaster management, despite constraints
In operational terms, it is the High on its resources.
Command of National Civil Defence (EMNDC)
that is the permanent institution in charge of
disaster management, through the National Regional overview
Committees for Emergencies, which lay down The various institutions in the region share a
the policies. Its efforts are concentrated on series of problems. SINAPROC in Mexico and
creating municipal committees for prevention, COEN in El Salvador are dependent on their
mitigation, and response to disasters, and on governments and operate through the equivalent
forming civil-defence brigades. of the Interior Ministry or Home Office. The CNE
There is a group of Nicaraguan women in Costa Rica depends on the President of the
working on CEPREDENAC's gender and emer- Republic and is attached to the Ministry for Works
gency programme, but its proposals have come to and Transport, while COPECO in Honduras,
nothing, for lack of funds. It includes women from CONRED in Guatemala, and EMNDC in
various organisations, including the Ministry of Nicaragua also depend on the President and on
Education, the Nicaraguan Women's Institute the operational wing of the Ministry of Defence.
(INIM), and NGOs such as the Augusto Cesar The quality of management and response to
Sandino Foundation (FACS) and the Companions emergencies is varied, but corresponds largely
of the Americas. Some of the activities include to the twin common denominators of poverty
encouraging women's participation in the training and low political priority, which translate into
in prevention that is carried out with students, constraints on the human and material
teachers, education brigades, rescue teams, and resources for running national emergency
odiers. They share the concern that the courses plans. Overall, the official institutions are more
organised by EMNDC (with the support of OFDA, concerned with responding to the impact of a
the US Office for Disaster Response) to train disaster than with prevention, mitigation, and
trainers in the management of disasters and the preparedness. It is difficult to assess the quality
assessment of the damage and needs are almost and effectiveness of their responses, but public
totally aimed at men. observations are incorporated in Table 18.
54
Assessment of local capacity
Frequent changes in the Lack of clear regional policies Initial interest in prevention and
political arena for prevention, mitigation and mitigation at the decision-making
preparation level
Unequal participation of countries Low level of participation of civil Priority for environmental
in the regional processes of society in regional decisions management and ordnance surveys
prevention, mitigation, and at regional level
preparedness
Different and changing threats Intervention not co-ordinated with Interest in raising the social impact
and vulnerabilities international assistance of regional projects to reduce
disasters
Growing threats and vulnerabilities Little exchange of experiences Institution created specifically for
the purpose (CEPREDENAC)
Other widespread perceptions are that generally weak, and is worsened by the lack of
emergency responses are generally delayed co-ordination and the reliance on improvised
(usually not operational until 48 hours after the plans. All of this further complicates the
event); that emergency plans are not widely situation of the affected populations.
known and exist only on paper; that the national It is at the local level where projects to reduce
emergency committees are closed institutions risks appear to have the most chance of
which do not allow civil society to participate, and producing concrete results. This is mainly due to
when they do they invite only their political the fact that many such projects are run by
sympathisers; that emergency interventions international organisations (although in
reflect political interests, and rehabilitation and collaboration with national and local structures)
reconstruction programmes are exploited for whose abilities are recognised (such as PAHO, the
electoral and propaganda purposes; that Red Cross, and the Organisation of American
responses favour groups located in accessible States). However, this tends to obscure the lack of
places; and that aid distribution often favours national capacity to work at the local level.
friends and acquaintances, rather than reaching Further, local-level capacity is very weak, despite
the people most in need. the priority that the international agencies have
The formal bodies are weak for several given it, and is totally inadequate to meet the
reasons. They lack qualified staff, and do not needs of the many communities living in high-
always enjoy the necessaryfinancialand political risk conditions.
support. They tend to take a narrow view of the Let us take the example of Mexico, where
problems caused by natural disasters and how to work at the state and municipal levels should
reduce them, and to look at these in sectoral or have been a high priority, given the
specialised terms, rather than taking a global decentralised SINAPROC model, and the
approach. They lack the capacity to identify magnitude of the risks. Around Popocatepetl
solutions and priorities in risk reduction, which are more than 200 communities who belong to
in turn means that they are unable to formulate various states and municipalities who, according
coherent and fundable projects. And finally, few to SINAPROC, have received training in how to
of them co-ordinate adequately (or at all) with respond to emergencies. Afieldvisit proved that
local institutions in order to respond effectively these local capacities did not exist. Firstly, the
to emergency situations. Overall, then, the system to warn of volcanic eruptions is not clear
responsive capacity at the national level is to the public: the system of signals (which uses
55
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
the traffic-light colours) to indicate the level of In general, some local-level capacity-building
alert is not fully understood by the local is taking place, either via the official government
authorities or by the public, and there is institutions or through the intervention of
confusion over whether or not the red alert is a specialised international organisations devel-
signal to proceed with evacuation. It is unclear oping pilot projects. But this is a very slow
what local resources are available to mobilise process in comparison with the rate at which the
people, and their supply is in any case highly threats are increasing. Underlying problems
dependent on external support. No local such as the lack of human and material
mapping has been done, let alone a realistic resources, the poor regional-national-local
survey of the actual composition of the links, and the politicisation of disasters are not
population and its needs. Instead, calculations readily overcome. Local actions allow for an
are based on the last census, which is out of date. understanding of the problems at the grassroots
Secondly, the local resources are scarce. In level. The strengthening of local organisations
Tlamanalco, for example, there is not even one gives a genuine impetus to self-management
ambulance, and the mayor is having problems and is a step towards real operational capacity.
finding fuel for the police and to run the Eventually, this could help to increase the
municipality. Thirdly, despite SINAPROC's pressure on other actors, particularly in the
incompetence, there are no other organisations political arena.
that might help to build up local capacities. Thus, although it is important to support
In El Salvador, COEN and the Salvadoran local-level initiatives, the wider context should
Red Cross have tried to build up capacities at the not be ignored, and neither should the need for
municipal level to cope with emergency decentralised planning and for co-ordinated
situations, although UNDP claims that only 16 action. This is where policies for prevention and
municipalities out of a total of 262 have the not only for preparedness can best be
minimum capacity to respond. promoted. The risk of concentrating only on the
In Nicaragua, EMNDC, in collaboration with local level is that this could ultimately lead to a
public and private institutions, has achieved lack of efficient co-ordination.
some success in setting up Municipal
Committees for Prevention, Mitigation and
Response to Disasters, in training, in organising Disasters and civil society
civil-defence brigades (First Aid, Fire Service,
Rubble Clearance, Search and Rescue), drawing Formally, disaster management in Mexico and
up risk maps, and drafting disaster- Central America appears to be the exclusive
management guidelines. However, they have domain of the governments. Few civil-society
had some success only in 22 of the 131 organisations, in particular NGOs, are present
municipalities in the country, of which 57 have in this area and enjoy recognition for their
been declared as 'high priority'. work. Although many organisations work on
In Costa Rica, the CNE has prioritised 112 development and/or the environment, they
communities situated in approximately 70 seldom include emergency work in their
regions, and has organised local emergency programmes.
committees in 90 per cent of these. However, One reason for this may be the recent
training has been very limited. direction and priorities of international
The situation is particularly difficult in assistance; another may be the problem of
Guatemala. For instance, the San Roque harmonising these areas of work in such a
community in the south of the country complex situation, where many such
comprises about 100 families who survive on organisations focus on the struggle against
locally grown maize and sesame. However, the poverty and the increase of socio-economic
River Ocosito often overflows and floods the conflicts. Whatever the explanation, the reality
cultivated fields. The community is unclear is that there is a notable lack of involvement in
about the level of risk that the river poses to these areas, an absence that is worrying, given
them and their crops, and no organisation has the concentration of highly vulnerable
offered even basic training in responding to populations in areas of high risk, and where
emergencies. This is not an isolated case. government assistance has often been less than
CONRED argues that resource constraints effective. Civil-society organisations perhaps
mean that is impossible to meet all the needs of need to adopt a two-pronged strategy for
communities at high risk. emergency and development, given their
56
Assessment of local capacity
considerable organisational potential and the demonstrated the capacity to focus their
knowledge drawn from their experience of lobbying on measures to defuse the prevailing
working with grassroots communities. conflict. However, the capacity to respond
Certain civil-society actors and initiatives actively to the populations affected by the
represent an important body of knowledge that conflicts is limited, especially when it is a
could be used in future emergency interventions. question of displaced populations and those
It also needs to be recognised that many who have been forcibly evicted, where there are
organisations (such as trade unions, social no clear intervention strategies.
movements, and NGOs) do not have an
institutional mandate to work in emergency Guatemala
situations, but nevertheless offer support to
members, partners, or affiliates who have There are organisations, such as the National
suffered disasters. This has enabled them to Co-ordination Body for Indigenous and Rural
'learn by doing' and makes them potential Women (CONIC), which represent the interests
counterparts for emergency work and candidates of the most marginalised social sectors and
for training programmes. which have shown some limited capacity to
respond to emergencies, especially in areas
There are also many international NGOs in
where the government body has been
the region with a recognised competency in
ineffectual. Some niche organisations, such as
emergencies and disasters (Catholic Relief
the Guatemalan Association for Emergencies
Services, Medecins Sans Frontieres, CARE, and (AGE), focus on emergency-related work within
Medecins du Monde, among others), but the a particular geographical area, while others,
majority work in other aspects of development. such as Friends of the Americas (a programme
In situations of crisis, many of them do promoted by the US government through
collaborate with the affected populations, if they OFDA), are concerned with improving the
are already among their own priority groups. security of schools throughout Central America.
However, we would emphasise the need for The long politico-military conflict in
national and local NGOs to be involved in co- Guatemala also gave rise to a large number of
ordinating various aspects of emergency- organisations and groups that defend human
related work. rights. As elsewhere in Latin America, these
One critical aspect here is the application of have a high number of female members. Their
gender-fair policies in emergencies. Overall, leaders and active members were themselves
there is very little knowledge of these matters victims of persecution, disappearance,
either in the official emergency bodies, which detention, and torture by the military and death
are mainly technico-military teams with limited squads. Women's solidarity-based organisations
women's participation, or among NGOs. that have their historical roots in the conflict still
However, many NGOs do have some play an important role in responding to the
knowledge of gender and development, which material, economic, political, and psycho-social
is something on which to build. needs of women, particularly widows and other
women who have lost male family members, in
Mexico the context of the reconstruction process.
Despite Mexico's status as the country at the Organisations such as the Consultative
highest risk in the region, with the largest Assembly of Displaced Populations focus on the
vulnerable and exposed populations, the weak obligations under the Peace Accords 'to put
participation of NGOs in Mexico in this field is special emphasis on the protection of female
remarkable by comparison with the rest of the headed households as well as widows and
region. However, NGOs do have a proven orphans which have been the most affected'. In
lobbying capacity, with networks such as addition, the returnee women's organisations
Convergencia (convergence), Seguridad Alimentaria which were initially formed during exile in
(Food Security), and Combate contra la Pobreza Mexico, where they helped to promote the
(Fight Against Poverty) having the potential to human rights and political, economic, and social
mobilise activity around the response to the development of the refugees, have remained
hardships suffered by fellow citizens as a result of active in Guatemala, although many women
disasters. have succumbed to the pressure on them to
In the southern region, particularly in return to their pre-war roles. These are also
Chiapas, civil-society organisations have committed to ensuring the recognition and
57
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
58
Assessment of local capacity
International Decade for the Reduction of The Project for the Reduction of the
Natural Disasters (IDRND) 1990-2000: With Vulnerability of the Road Transport System in
its headquarters in Costa Rica, the IDRND has Natural Disasters in Central America and
encouraged activities aimed at reducing the Andean countries is being conducted in
number of disasters in the region. It focuses on collaboration with the Pan-American Institute
information and is co-ordinating a project to for Roads, also with financial support from
create a Regional Centre for Information on ECHO. It maps risks and local warning systems
Disasters (CRID), which will combine the efforts in Central America and is based on the pilot
of PAHO/WHO, IFRCS, MSF, and the CNE in developed in Honduras. The Project for the
Costa Rica and also CEPREDENAC. Reduction of the Vulnerability of Small Urban
Pan-American Health Organisation Centres and the Pan-American Highway to
(PAHO/WHO): PAHO is one of the pioneering Natural Disasters in Central America usefully
organisations in health-related work on natural integrates work on communication routes,
disasters and also provides technical health people living in slums, and commercial activities
assistance. It is currently working on a project to with an assessment of the risks.
provide university-level training on disaster UNDP: The UNDP supports governments in
preparedness in Central America to support the various ways and also provides funds for
Central American Commission for Disasters, responses to emergency situations. For instance,
and on an Internet project to ensure better a project entitled Training and Strengthening
communication among the organisations for the Prevention and Management of Natural
involved in risk- management. Disasters in Costa Rica seeks to support the CNE
International Federation of Red Cross/Red in strengthening municipal and local
Crescent Societies (IFRCS): As part of the Red committees in their struggle against natural
Cross movement, the Federation brings together disasters. The Training for the Prevention of
all the national Red Cross and Red Crescent Natural Disasters Project in Nicaragua supports
Societies worldwide. At an international level, the training of local committees undertaken by
the International Committee of the Red Cross EMNDC, while the Project for Support to the
(ICRC) is charged with working in situations of National Strategy for Environmental Education
armed conflict, and the Federation with in El Salvador links environmental problems
responses to natural disasters and development, and natural disasters.
although the National Societies do not make this The Network of Social Studies for the
distinction. The Federation is currently working Prevention of Natural Disasters in Latin
on strengthening the National Societies, training America (LA RED): This is a network of
staff, and setting up its own communication institutions and researchers working in the field
system, both between the National Societies and of disaster vulnerability from a social
within each country. Since 1995, it has been perspective. Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador
supporting community-level disaster-prepared- and Guatemala belong to it, and its regional
ness work in Guatemala, Nicaragua and headquarters are based in the FLACSO office in
Panama, with plans to extend to Costa Rica, El Costa Rica.
Salvador, and Honduras. Since 1994, LA RED has been implementing
Organisation of American States (OAS): The a programme of research and information
OAS has undertaken a lot of disaster-reduction exchange, geared to strengthening the local and
work in Mexico and Central America and has regional capacity of organisations that work in
experience ranging from local work to region- disaster reduction (partly funded by ECHO).
wide initiatives. For example, the Programme This programme also serves to disseminate
for the Reduction of Vulnerability in the relevant concepts, and to inform and influence
Education Sector to Natural Hazards promotes the policies of the national governments and of
the development and implementation of regional and international organisations. While
policies, plans, projects, and preparedness for LA RED is not operational, many of its members
the reduction of natural disasters, focusing on are organisations that use the information in
physical infrastructure. The activities include their work.
technical assistance, training, and the transfer of Other initiatives include Medecins Sans
technology. Pilot projects began in El Salvador Frontieres (MSF), whose regional office in
and Nicaragua and have since 1995 extended to Costa Rica plans to draw up an 'Emergency
Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, and Preparedness Plan', and has sought to combine
Panama. development and emergency project-
59
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
management skills. The Economic Research Like the UK, the Netherlands has been weak
Institute at the University of Costa Rica is in the areas of preparedness and prevention,
embarking on a study of the economic but is currently supporting a project to reduce
consequences of natural disasters in the region. disasters in Costa Rica, under the UNESCO
And finally, Urgent Action International, a framework. This project aims to strengthen the
French NGO, offers training in rehabilitation, scientific capacity to integrate knowledge about
as well as raising public awareness. It may also natural phenomena in order to produce a map
set up a logistics base to store goods and on various scales (from 1/25,000) for planners.
equipment to respond to future crises. While Germany has had little involvement in
In terms of bilateral support in this field, the Central America (mainly supporting rural
most active country appears to be Sweden, development projects or training programmes
followed by Denmark, France, the UK, and the and small business development), its FEMID
Netherlands. Germany is also starting to (Strengthening of Local Structures in Disaster
support work this area. Sweden has been a Mitigation) project does aim to strengthen local
driving force in Central America in risk structures by supporting research, training
reduction. In 1988, Swedish funds enabled workshops, and small complementary projects
CEPREDENAC to set up as a research in disaster reduction. The three-year project
organisation, and this support has continued concentrates on a pilot area in each Central
since CEPREDENAC re-defined its mission in American country and will eventually move to
1993 as an initiative of SICA (System for Central exchanges between pilot areas to evaluate and
American Integration). Since then, the Swedish compare trie strategies and tools being used.
Agency for Institutional Development (SIDA) Italy has helped to set up a warning system in
has also funded national projects and the the areas threatened by the Cerro Negro, while
institutional strengthening of CEPREDENAC. Switzerland supports projects in Nicaragua and
Denmark, in collaboration with Guatemala related to the improvement of the
CEPREDENAC, is particularly involved in the network to monitor volcanoes and to improve
reduction of the risk of flooding in Central early-warning systems for tidal waves. Finally,
America, especially with a programme which NORAD of Norway works with CEPREDENAC
aims to improve early-warning systems. France on a project to reduce the risk of earthquake
has mainly provided one-off support in the area damage in Central America. This project should
of information about natural phenomena and result in a regional centre for information on
preventive information, for example scientific earthquakes and the strengthening of the
projects like the research on volcanoes in scientific and technical work of the various
Costa Rica. seismology institutes in their work.
60
5 Progress and needs in disaster management
61
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
prevent flooding in the capital eventually helping to build the capacity of communities at
became a risk-factor for the population living in risk, and working with relief and response
the lower part of the basin. The public works that groups to enable them to confront crises, before,
are really needed are very costly to build, which during, and after impact. These activities are
is partly why they are uncommon. increasingly organised in the region and are the
However, there have been certain initiatives essence of risk-reduction work.
to establish building regulations, though these
tend to be observed only in public buildings Warning systems
and not in individual housing, which is
precisely what is most vulnerable in the Important advances have been in the warning
region. Most of these regulations are also systems for cyclone risk and, to a lesser extent,
inappropriate in the absence of proper seismic flood warnings (whether or not linked to
research in that area. Such studies have tropical cyclones). Progress has also been made
seldom been completed. For example, in in hurricane warning systems, particularly in
Mexico there exists one study for the Estado tracking them and forecasting their path,
de Colima, and now one is being considered intensity, and speed.
for the capital; in El Salvador a study was This work forms part of the global system of
recently completed with the support of UNAM meteorological vigilance that is managed by the
for the area of San Salvador; in Nicaragua and World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), of
Costa Rica, partial studies are being carried which Central America and Mexico form the IV
out for high-priority areas in Managua and Regional Association. This system combines
San Jose respectively. land, maritime, aerial, and satellite observation
through Specialised Meteorological Centres,
from where the information is distributed to
Table 19: Building codes for high-risk countries by special high-velocity telecommuni-
areas cations systems. Central American countries
currently receive material processed in the US
Country Codes and regulations Regional Centre in Miami, and have adopted
the improved Start-4 system.
Mexico Various (elaborated for each federal
The challenge is how to communicate the risk
organisation)
of a particular phenomenon to the population at
Guatemala Seismic Regulations for Guatemala
large. This is where many problems arise, from
City (1971) and Seismic Code interpretation on the one hand to the lack of any
Proposal (1979) effective means of communicating with the
population, especially in rural areas, on the
El Salvador Regulation for Seismic Design (1996) other. There is also the problem of making the
and Technical Design Regulations decision to issue a warning, which is often a
(1994) highly centralised and politicised process. As a
result, warnings may be given too late.
Honduras None
Flood-warning systems are underdeveloped,
Seismic Code for Buildings in the
despite flooding being the most common
Nicaragua
Area of DN (1973) and Building natural phenomenon in the region. One
Regulation (1983) difficulty is that it has not been possible to
establish the level of risk, due to the lack of
Costa Rica Seismic Code (1986) studies of the hydrological cycles and the
hydrographic basins whose rivers are most
Panama Design Regulation (1984) likely to flood at any given time. All the Central
American countries have been supported by the
Nordic countries to install numerical systems of
hydrological prediction, though unfortunately
using models that have proved impractical.
Preparedness However, some specific pilot projects underway
in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua may
The main objective of disaster-preparedness make it possible to widen the warning systems in
work is to tackle unavoidable events with the the area, with Costa Rica being the most
minimum of repercussions. This involves advanced.
62
Progress and needs in disaster management
It is important to note that the various supplies such as medicine and food. And last but
mathematical models for predictingfloodsdo not not least, the problem of communication, since
respond to the practical needs of the region. They there are seldom any means of communicating
are often adopted in order to keep up bilateral with affected areas. (Here, the network of radio
aid relationships, but their usefulness is limited to enthusiasts in the region plays a significant role.)
the institutions involved, and does not benefit the In the relief phase, the Red Cross plays a very
population which is threatened or at risk. important role in each country. The extent of its
work varies from one place to another, but it has
made great efforts to respond in appropriate
Preparation for protection
ways. The Mexican Red Cross is the best-
When dealing with a foreseen phenomenon, it is equipped organisation, with many vehicles and
possible to take preventive measures, such as a sophisticated global, regional, and national
evacuating the population or setting up supply communications system.
lines. When disaster actually strikes, people take Supply Management (SUMA) software has
their own steps to protect themselves. been employed by PAHO since 1991. Funded by
Pre-emptive population evacuation is rarely the Netherlands, this software facilitates the
carried out. A dreadful example of this inaction administration of all kinds of supplies coming in
was seen during the eruption of the Chichonal from outside the catastrophe zone itself. PAHO
volcano in Chiapas in 1982. Local people were has conducted extensive training in how to use
practically forced to remain in their homes by the system, though several countries lack the
the state authorities, with the tragic result that equipment to make best use of it.
most of the Zoque indian population was buried
by burning lava and volcanic ash. In Nicaragua,
the people living around Bluefields on the Emergency plans
Atlantic Coast were not evacuated during Emergency plans have been formulated by the
Hurricane Cesar in 1996, even when it was competent authorities in each country. They
known that it was about to strike. There are should encompass both national and local
many similar examples in the region. needs, depending on the risks and
All of the disaster-related bodies in the vulnerabilities identified. However these plans
region, official and non-governmental alike, are not always comprehensive, especially in
produce information on what to do in the case of terms of risk. It is also questionable how effective
an earthquake, a flood, a fire, and so on. There they really are, since most of them are not up-to-
are masses of material available. In Mexico, for date (though El Salvador and Guatemala have
instance, there is even a manual outlining a recently updated theirs, and Nicaragua is in the
Family Protection Plan for Disasters. All this process of doing so). Often, they were produced
material is very useful, but it is not reaching the to respond to immediate situations and, once
population at risk in an organised way. Rather, these have passed, they become no more than
it frequently arrives in a muddled and reference material and are of no operational use
incomplete form. in other situations. And although the region
now faces frequent drought, it is noteworthy
that the relevant ministries (Agriculture and
Preparation for relief Livestock) have no contingency plans for this
Relief organisations face a series of difficulties, challenge.
especially with regard to the management of Other important factors regarding these
relief, which comes mainly from outside after national emergency plans have been identified
the country has done what it can. Meanwhile, by CEPREDENAC. For instance, only in Costa
urgent needs are not covered during the first Rica and Guatemala is it a legal obligation to
few hours after impact. Examples of this are the develop and follow emergency plans, and only
earthquake in Limon (Costa Rica), where more Costa Rica has made its national emergency
than 48 hours went by without urgent needs plan official. Furthermore, only in Costa Rica
being attended to, the case of Hurricane Cesar and El Salvador are the plans truly national in
in Tasba Pauni (Nicaragua), and the fate of their coverage; in the other countries, they are
Francisco Leon (Mexico) with the eruption of only partial. Finally, not one of the plans is
Chichonal. Other serious problems lie in the public knowledge within the country. In
poor co-ordination between relief organisations, Honduras, the emergency plan is actually
and the frequent absence of immediately usable confidential.
63
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
There are very few NGOs with emergency Red Cross and PAHO publications, including
plans, with the Red Cross being a notable the Red Cross compendium for natural-disaster
exception. In Costa Rica, 16 organisations are management ('Series 3000'), among many
developing a co-ordinated plan for technology- others. (Once the international decade finishes,
related emergencies and are preparing it is not clear whether the IDRND magazine will
proposed legislation so that it can be officially have the funding to survive.)
recognised. PAHO supports the development of There is a considerable amount of
emergency plans at a regional level in the health information available on the Internet on the
sector and has its own Emergency Programme, activities organised by official organisations in
as do the MSF offices. the field of natural disasters. CENAPRED in
Mexico issues daily updates on 'Popo', and
organisations such as the CNE (www.cne.go.cr)
Information and training and the Regional Centre of Information on
Disasters (www.netsalud.sa.cr/ops/crid) are
Awareness raising, training, and development useful sources. PAHO organised a Latin
play an important role in the work of reducing American Seminar for the Managing
risk and vulnerability, and in disaster Information on Disasters on the Internet in late
mitigation; and information is critical both in 1997.
terms of advising people of the likely risks they Documentation centres are also valuable but,
face, and in sharing ideas about preventive steps with the exception of the PAHO centre in Costa
that might be taken. In the region, information Rica, most have incomplete or very specialised
and training on response to natural holdings. PAHO's Disaster Documentation
catastrophes, and to a lesser degree to disasters Centre (DDC) was set up to disseminate material
of human agency, are produced mainly to to public as well as private organisations and to
support preparation for disasters. concerned individuals. Demands on the Centre
Most of the work going on in this area is are currently outstripping its capacity to
concerned with the dissemination of information respond, and moves are underway to link it with
on the threats, and to a lesser extent with how to other libraries through a Regional System of
prepare for the resulting emergencies. Information on the Reduction of Natural
However, there is very little done in terms of Catastrophes, in order to expand its impact and
prevention, apart from new programmes in reach in a more efficient way. Another initiative
Costa Rica and Mexico. In both cases, however, is the idea of converting the existing DDC into a
these are primarily concentrating on the Regional Centre for Information on Disasters as
development and application of earthquake- a multi-agency centre. PAHO, WHO, IDRND,
resistant engineering. CEPREDENAC, IFRCS, and MSF are in favour
Prevention work relates to decisions taken at of this move.
the highest level, which are shaped by political However, the local communities, which ought
or funding considerations, and civil-society to be the main recipients of information and
organisations are generally not involved. But in training, are not being reached. Although this is a
practice, the concept of prevention has scarcely widely known problem and concern, nowhere
been developed at all, especially among political did we find a properly structured programme for
actors. communicating information to the people at
The production and dissemination of most serious risk. The Red Cross is a key actor in
information on natural disasters is achieved this area. By the very nature of its work, it is an
mainly through conferences, seminars, and organisation that works closely with communities
workshops; specialised journals and websites; and also has relatively good geographical
and documentation centres. The information is coverage (though this is very patchy in some
very diverse, ranging from detailed accounts of areas) and a wide scope of activities. For example,
major events, to technical and social the Honduran Red Cross (established in 1937) is
perspectives on disasters, to micro-studies such organising community-level disaster training
as the study of vulnerability of hospitals in Costa workshops but is also participating in latrine-
Rica. Some of the most widely circulated construction programmes with a view to
publications and well-used websites in the reducing vulnerability in the most marginalised
region include 'STOP Disasters' and the reports communities. It should also be pointed out that
prepared by the IDRND; 'CEPREDENAC the majority of evacuation drills that take place in
News', which is sent to members by email; and schools and other public and private buildings in
64
Progress and needs in disaster management
the region are co-ordinated by the Red Cross, of Education have created a special unit for
which is very involved in this kind of activity. this issue, and co-ordinate with other
The Salvadoran Red Cross has a community institutions, especially the National
training programme (part of the Series 3000) Emergency Committees and the Red Cross.
and organises disaster-preparedness courses on On the other hand, universities and other
request. Workshops and training programmes training centres do not generally include this
are also being developed in Nicaragua, Costa subject in their programmes, with a few
Rica, and Panama, looking at local risks and notable exceptions. For example, at the
trying to deal with the expressed needs of the faculty of law at the University of El Salvador,
communities. humanitarianism is included as part of the
There are a number of other initiatives, course on international law, and the
including those being sponsored or run by engineering degrees in Costa Rica, Mexico,
international agencies such as GTZ, or by and Nicaragua cover earthquake-resistant
multilateral agencies such as UNDP. Many structures. CENAPRED and the UNAM are
NGOs also work in health and agricultural also now running courses on the Global
programmes and others connected with Administration of Disasters.
potential disasters, but this is seldom their main
The media: great efforts have been made to
focus.
maintain a high level of information through
Overall, while there is very rich empirical the mass media. These are important
knowledge of potential risks, based on on-the- channels for passing on knowledge and
ground experience, this has not been appropriate information to the public, to
sufficiently exploited or valued, and much of the enable people to take better preventive
information and expertise is lost. There is little action. Generally there is communication
co-ordination of effort, and a general lack of between the media and organisations
communication and exchange among responsible for disaster management.
community leaders, trainers, and local groups
on issues of natural disasters. The only positive Politics: aspects of risk reduction and
example found in the mapping exercise was in disaster mitigation can be developed without
Mexico, where, with the support of the World huge political commitment, especially with
Council of Churches, a group of people affected regard to disaster preparedness. This is not
by the Cerro Negro in Nicaragua and other so for prevention, partly because of the high
victims of disasters in El Salvador visited costs entailed and the very low level of
communities threatened by Popocatepetl, awareness on the subject, but also because the
where they shared their experiences and the technical specialists present convincing and
lessons they had learned. It would be persuasive arguments to the politicians. The
interesting, for example, if local committees and key is to demonstrate to the politicians the
civil-society organisations in the region had the cost-effectiveness of prevention, compared
opportunity to share experience of the People's with reacting to the consequences of
Local Emergency Committee (Comite Popular catastrophes. This situation partly explains
why the competent authorities are often
Local de Emergencia) of Limon (Costa Rica),
accorded only a low priority and have serious
which because of the lack of response from the
difficulties in keeping going. None has
competent authorities took responsibility for
adequate funding for emergencies, or the
handling the emergency arising from the
necessary resources for their work to be truly
earthquake that destroyed the city on in April efficient. However, and more positively, the
1991. establishment of the Central American
Commendable efforts have been made in the Alliance for Sustainable Development
region for informing specific social groups, but (ALIDES) is a sign that certain issues are
little has been done to raise awareness in certain rising up the political agenda. While the
key sectors, important in terms of prevention results remain to be seen, the atmosphere is
and preparation for emergency situations. more favourable to the need for sustainable
The education system: more needs to be development than has been the case in the
done to introduce the subject of disasters and past, especially considering the peace
their prevention into the school curriculum. processes in various Central American
Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras have countries.
had some success in this area. Their Ministers
65
6 Lessons and challenges
One important and somewhat controversial issues become simpler and agencies tend to
aspect of risk-mapping is that of classifying intervene. However, we also know that vested
emergency situations in the region. The political interests can prevent such a declaration
difficulties relate directly to the nature and the being made, even when there is clearly an
size of the events. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and emergency situation. Governments also have
volcanic eruptions are more often seen as their own definition of what constitutes an
reasons for intervention than are phenomena emergency, which relates to the extent to which
such as drought, floods, and conflict. Drought an event will have national repercussions,
and floods in particular are often recurrent, although a calamitous but localised event is still
causing those affected to become victims of an emergency for those affected by it.
cyclical emergencies. Their lives permanently
oscillate between stressful situations and full-
blown crisis. It is therefore hard to differentiate How to work in disasters?
between a 'normal' and 'emergency' state, a fact
that takes us into the debate about what The many interviews conducted throughout this
constitutes structural poverty and what is truly mapping exercise revealed a pattern of two
an emergency. opposing methods of operating in an emergency
This risk map, particularly in its analysis of (not to mention development programmes).
social vulnerability, proves the link between This is characterised by a false dichotomy
high levels of poverty and high-risk areas in the between 'operational' and 'non-operational'
region. Not surprisingly, then, communities methods, which concerns how an emergency
facing an emergency situation are at the same response is formulated and put into action. On
time living in a condition of structural poverty. the one hand there is a tendency in some
If this is true in the majority of cases, does this international agencies, or certain departments
mean that these cyclical emergencies are what within them, to 'go operational' even at the
bring about structural poverty? expense of displacing local actors; and, on the
The size of a given event and its impact are other, some agencies adopt a position of taking
still more difficult to define if set against a global no action at all unless this is done through local
context. The differences between Mexico and organisations and counterpart. The victims of
Central America, Asia, and Africa are very this clash of viewpoints are the people affected by
marked, and do not readily lend themselves to the calamity.
comparison. It is largely agreed that The tensions between the competing
emergencies that affect a given region should be positions are heightened when top-down or
understood and evaluated within that particular head-office decisions seem to ignore or
context, especially in terms of politics, undervalue the capacity and knowledge within
economics, society, and culture. However, some a given region and locally. At the same time,
questions arise: when exactly should an there is sometimes a tendency to deny the role
international organisation become involved in that technical specialists may have to play. We
humanitarian action? What are the institutional believe, however, that this is fundamentally a
criteria for defining an event as an emergency? false dichotomy, in that neither way of working
What size or impact does a disaster need to have constitutes an absolute paradigm or model.
in order to produce and justify a response? Every situation is different and requires a
Where are the dividing lines between different combination of skills and responses.
emergency relief, rehabilitation, and Whether a project is operational or not should
reconstruction? And who decides? To aid be a matter of principle, but depends on a
workers on the ground, it appears that when a proper evaluation of each situation, and the
state of emergency is officially declared, the capacity and willingness to draw on a wide
66
Lessons and challenges
67
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
caused by calamitous events would help to economic sectors such as agriculture and
resolve the immediate and long-term needs, industry that are of vital importance, given the
helping to break the cycle of these events, and indebtedness of these countries. In addition, the
diminishing the need for future intervention. social and economic conditions of the majority
Seen like this, rehabilitation is more than an of people in the region are contributing to an
opportunity for supporting the processes of increase in vulnerability, especially among the
sustainable development. Experience has also indigenous population and women.
shown that emergency situations act as a catalyst The analysis of threats and risks has allowed
to organisational processes such as mutual us to identify differences between the different
support, and could open up ways to introduce countries, but within a regional context in which
change that would otherwise be very costly in all the countries suffer every kind of threat, from
terms of resources, time, and effort. Examples hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
have been seen in the building up of and tsunamis to landslides and floods. And
organisations and community groups, the re- without exception all the countries are at high
valuing of the social and economic roles of risk of such natural disasters. However, in
women, changes in how productive or domestic carrying out a multi-phenomena analysis, we
activities are conducted, and so on. have defined those areas that are at greatest risk.
We have also established a range of needs and
initiatives concerned with disaster reduction,
Resources and finance though significant gaps exist in this area.
Scientific and technical research is relatively
This way of integrating development and advanced, but is often inadequate to determine
emergency work also presents a challenge in local or micro-level risks. Also, vital instruments
terms of the resources and financing required. such as the cartography of phenomena are
Within the international aid industry, the largely lacking, especially for complex sets of
marked division between emergencies and phenomena.
development determines funding sources and Research on vulnerability is not very
channels. Further, the agencies' thematic developed in the region and has focused on
(sectoral) priorities make the business of infrastructure, rather than on the economic and
implementing integral programmes in social dimensions. Disaster-prevention work is
emergency situations even more complicated. It intellectually weak, and not often translated into
may be necessary to channel development practice. Building regulations and codes exist
resources towards achieving a sustainable on paper, but are seldom applied. One of the
emergency response. For example, promoting most critical aspects for the future is the absence
reforestation or crop diversification would help of urban planning. The region suffers from
to reduce vulnerability to drought. It is also to be urban sprawl, characterised by the anarchic
remembered that sustainable emergency growth of cities, and this may well get worse in
programmes require a greater commitment, years to come.
not only in terms of resources but also of time More has been achieved in the sphere of
and the willingness to play an 'accompaniment' disaster preparedness for those emergencies
or support role with local organisations and that cannot be prevented than in the field of
beneficiary groups. disaster prevention. However, improvisation is
still the order of the day, as a way of managing
potentially disastrous events. There are new
Conclusions initiatives in this area, and recently local and
rural needs have been prioritised, leaving high-
The mapping exercise confirms the high-risk risk city populations to one side. Even so, the
conditions and great vulnerability of Mexico impact of plans and preparedness programmes
and Central America as a region. The scale of is still very limited, and coverage is poor.
the damage that has been sustained in the Information and training, and the evaluation
poorest communities, as in other social and of the results of research constitute the basis of
economic sectors, speaks for itself. Natural the preventive and preparedness work. Here, a
catastrophes and conflicts put brakes on great deal of useful work has been done, and it is
development work as well as affecting the possible that the weaknesses may be overcome
environment, the social conditions of poor with the development of strong information
people, and also the infrastructure and key networks on a regional and national scale.
68
References and background reading
69
Index
70
Index
71
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
health care 37 Guatemala 34, 36, 45-6 living standards 31, 35, 38, 45, 47,
high-risk areas 22 Honduras 34 49-50
hurricanes 14, 15, 24, 26 marginalisation 34, 40 local capacities 8, 10, 12, 56, 66-7
indigenous peoples 34 Mexico 24, 34, 39, 40, 63 local government 31-2
industry 20 Nicaragua 34
infant mortality 36 poverty 34 malnutrition 31
institutions 13-14,53-4 security forces 41 children 31,38,49
literacy 47 vulnerability 68 Costa Rica 37, 38
living conditions 35, 47 Zoque indians 24, 63 El Salvador 37, 38
malnutrition 37, 38 INETER 13 gender 31,38,39,43,49
marginalisation 47 infant mortality Guatemala 37, 38, 45
maternal mortality 36, 37, 47 Chiapas 43 Honduras 37, 38
peasant farmers 54 Costa Rica 36 Mexico 37, 38
political factors/emergencies 29 El Salvador 36 mothers 38
poverty 32, 34, 47 Guatemala 36, 45 Nicaragua 37, 38, 49-50
schools 28 Honduras 36 maquilas 20
seismic activity 15 Mexico 36,39,43 maternal mortality
technology-related emergencies Nicaragua 36, 49, 50 Chiapas 43
20 informal sector 38, 48 Costa Rica 36
urban populations 34 INIM 54 El Salvador 36, 47
women-headed households 33 INM 13 Guatemala 36, 37, 46
hospitals 28 1NS1VUMEH 13 Honduras 36, 37, 47
housing institutions Mexico 36, 37, 39, 43
Costa Rica 35 civil society 55 Nicaragua 36, 37
El Salvador 25, 35 Costa Rica 13, 54 regional differences 36-7
Guatemala 61 El Salvador 13,53 Medecins Sans Frontieres 59-60
landslides 61 Guatemala 13,53 media, disaster management 65
Mexico 39 Honduras 13-14,53-4 Mesoamerican Trench 15
Nicaragua 49 Mexican Red Cross 63
Mexico 13,52-3
structure 31, 34 Mexico
Nicaragua 13,54
vulnerability 28, 35
regional 51-6 agricultural production 38, 40
human activity 19-22
risk-mapping 14 building regulations 62
Hurricane Cesar 14, 26, 63
international agencies 66 CENAPRED 13,24,52,64,65
Hurricane Fifi 24, 26
Intertropical Convergence Zone civil protection agencies 40
Hurricane Francelia 53
Hurricane Gilbert 14 14,17 civil society 41
Hurricane Joan 14,24,26,58 Irazii volcano 17 COCO PA 41
Hurricane Mitch 7, 8, 24, 26 cyclones 1415
Hurricane Pauline 52, 53 LA RED 30,53,59 deaths from disaster 8
hurricanes lahars 23 deforestation 21, 42
Costa Rica 14, 15, 26 land crisis 19 drought 18
cyclogenetic zones 11,1415,24 land-use planning 61 earthquakes 13, 14, 15, 28, 39
damage/loss 26 landslides 14, 17-18 emergency-response system 8
deaths 7 deaths 17,35 Family Protection Plan for
El Salvador 7, 14, 15 El Salvador 18,25, 35 Disasters 63
Guatemala 7, 24-5 Guatemela 7, 18 fertility rates 39
Honduras 14, 15, 24, 26 housing 61 floods 8, 17
Mexico 14-15,52,53 Mexico 39 health care 37
Nicaragua 7, 14, 15, 24, 26, 48, Nicaragua 18 high-risk areas 22, 23-4
58,63 latrine-construction 64 homelessness 8
warning systems 62-3 lava flow 23 hospitals 28
hydro-meteorology 13,26,62-3 Lempa Foundation 58 housing 39
hygiene 31, 35 Lempa River basin 17, 21, 58 hurricanes 14-15,52,53
life expectancy 20, 45 indigenous peoples 24, 34, 39,
ICE 13 Limon 25-6, 63 40,63
IDRND 59,64 literacy infant mortality 36, 39, 43
IFRCS 59 El Salvador 47 infrastructure 40
IICA 33 gender 31,32,39,47,48 institutions 13, 52-3
Ilopango, Lake 25 Guatemala 32,45,47 landslides 39
indigenous peoples 33-4 Honduras 47 living conditions 35
agriculture 11 Nicaragua 48 malnutrition 37, 38
El Salvador 34 refugees 44 maternal mortality 36, 37, 39, 43
72
Index
migration 19,40 living conditions 35, 49-50 areas affected 40, 52-3, 65
mudslides 8 malnutrition 37, 38, 49-50 warning systems 13, 55-6
National Commission for marginalisation 48 population
Reconstruction 52 maternal mortality 36, 37 Costa Rica 25-6
NGOs 30,57 migration 19 disappeared 44, 57
peace process 41 mini-dams 61-2 displacement 34,42,44,57-8
political factors 29, 40 NGOs 30 movement restrictions 43
pollution 21 political factors/emergencies 29 see also indigenous peoples
poverty 23, 32, 39 poverty 32, 34, 48, 49 population centres 18,24,34
regional differences 39 seismic activity 16 see also urbanisation
remittances 40 structural adjustment 48 poverty 35, 66, 67
risk-mapping 14 technology-related emergencies Costa Rica 32, 34
San Andreas Fault 15 20 disaster 7, 11
sanitation 39 tsunamis 18 El Salvador 32, 34, 47
SARH 13, 17,21 unemployment 48 extreme 11,30,31,32,45,48
S1NAPROC 13,40,52,54,55 urban populations 34, 48 gender 8,31,32
social vulnerability 39-43 volcanoes 7, 14, 16,49,65,66 Guatemala 32, 34, 44, 45-6
technology-related emergencies women-headed households 33, health 36
20 49 Honduras 32,34,47
Tlamanalco 40, 56 women's participation 48-9 indigenous peoples 34
tsunamis 18 NORAD 60 marginalisation 1 1
UNAM 13,23,30,40,62,65 North American tectonic plate 15 Mexico 23,39
volcanoes 13, 16, 23-4, 39, 63 Nicaragua 32,34,48,49
women-headed households 33, OAS 55, 59 vulnerability 32
39, 42 Ocosito River 56 prostitution 38,41, 43
see also Chiapas; Popocatepetl Odes of the East 17 P I T 19
migration 19,38,40,42 OEA/ECHO programme 27-8 Puntarena 26
militarisation 41-3 OFDA 54,57 pyroclastic flows 23
mining pollution 22 Ojo de Agua 19
Mombacho volcano 16 OPS/PAHO 39,45,46 Quiche district 445
Momotombo volcano 16 OVS1CORI 13
Motagua-Polochic Fault 15 OxfamGB 7, 8, 10, 14 rainfall 8, 11, 17
mudslides 8, 23 reconstruction 8, 44
Pacaya volcano 16 Red Cross 20, 55, 59, 63, 64-5
National Women's Office, Pacific Coast 13-14,17-18,21-2, RED network 58
Guatemala 53 34 reforestation 61, 68
Nazca tectonic plate 15 Pacific tectonic plate 15 refugees 44-5, 57-8
NGOs 29,30,57,64,65 PAHO 53,55,63,64 regional differences
Nicaragua PAHO/WHO 59 institutions 51-6
agricultural production 48, 50 Panama maternal mortality 36-7
agrochemical pollution 22 building regulations 62 Mexico 39
building regulations 62 earnings inequality 33 vulnerability 8, 30-8
civil-society organisations 48-9, hurricanes 14, 15 rehabilitation 60, 67, 68
58 institutions 13-14 relief organisations 10,63
deforestation 21 women-headed households 33 remittances 19-20, 38, 40, 47
drought 7, 18,49 Panamerican Highway 20 resources, emergencies 68
earthquakes 14, 24 peace process 8, 41, 44 returned families 42, 44, 57-8
EMNDC 54,56,59 peasant farmers 54 risk analysis 11, 13-14, 19-22
FACS 54,58 see also campesinos risk evaluation 22-6
floods 17,48 pesticides 21-2 risk management 7, 60, 62
health care 7, 37, 48, 49 politics risk-mapping 8, 10, 13, 14, 51, 65,
high-risk areas 22, 47-8 centralised government 28 66
housing 49 disaster management 65, 66 river pollution 212
hurricanes 7, 14, 15, 24, 26, 48, emergencies 29 Roatan island 19
58,63 local government 31-2 rockfalls 23
indigenous peoples 34 Mexico 29,40
infant mortality 36, 49, 50 Nicaragua 29 salinisation 21, 29
informal economy 48 repression 44 Salvadoran Red Cross 65
institutions 13, 54 vulnerability 28-30 Samala River 24
landslides 18 pollution 8,20-1,45 San Andreas Fault 15
literacy 48 Popocatepetl 2 3 ^ , 39 San Cristobal volcano 16
73
Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities
74
Map 1: Mexico and Central America: tectonic plates, geological faults, and hurricane patterns
Regional hurricane patterns
T) Gulf of Tehuantepec (May)
2) Campeche (June)
STAT ES OF AMERICA 3) Eastern Caribbean (July)
4) Atlantic Region (July)
500 kilometres
EL S'AWADOR VgiCARAGU
Tectonic plates and geological faults
x
Movement of plates (direction) \ I VENEZUELA / |
map 1
Map 2: Mexico: natural risks and vulnerability
-24-
Map 3: Central America: risks of earthquakes and volcanic activity
92 90 86 84
~l
300 kilometres
200 miles
M E CARIBBEAN SEA
16
14
-12
PACIFIC
Earthquake zones
I Very high seismic threat
II High seismic threat
III Moderate seismic threat
IV Low seismic threat
Map 4: Central America: risks of floods, landslides, and drought
92
300 kilometres
200 miles
M E
16
-14
PACIFIC OCEAN
10
Threat of landslides
^ ^ H Threat of floods