AmbiguityEffect

Theambiguityeffectisacognitivebiaswheredecisionmakingisaffectedbyalackofinformation,or
"ambiguity".Theeffectimpliesthatpeopletendtoselectoptionsforwhichtheprobabilityofa
favourableoutcomeisknown,overanoptionforwhichtheprobabilityofafavourableoutcomeis
unknown,eveniftheprobabilityoftheunknownoptionismorepreferable.

Thiscanbeusedtoexploitgamesofchance,whereyouofferapersonachoice.Youdon'tneedtohave
anMScingametheoryorevenknowwhatNashequilibriumis.Youjustneedtoknowagamewell
enoughtoensureaprofitabledeviation.

Paperrockscissors,coinflippingandsoon.Imaginehowcasinosplayblackjack,thehousealwayssits
whenithits17pointsormore.Thereisareasonforthis.Thoughthereisanelementofchance,thereis
asetnumberofcardswithasetnumberofoutcomesinadeckandcasinoshavedoneenoughresearch
toensureaprofitabledeviationandprofitability.Peoplestillchoosetoplay,theychoosemorecards
theymakethechoicesandyetthehousealwayswins.

Example

Thiscanbeeasilyabusedindaytodaylifewhengivingsomeoneachoiceinwhichyoupersonallyhavea
vestedinteresttheymakeoneofthosechoices.Youcanexplainonechoiceindepthandmakeitwell
knownandhighlightquestionsabouttheothermakeitvaguerandilldefined.Thusunconsciously
encouragingsomeonetomakeoneofthechoicesyouwant.Weseethisinmediaandpoliticsalotwith
newlawsbeingpassed,netneutralityandotherhottopics,thechoicetheywantustosupportisalmost
madeforus.Themediapretendsnottounderstandormisrepresentthechoicetheydon'twantusto
makeinaveiledattemptatmisdirectionandobfuscation.Ratherthanclearlyspellingoutwhatiswrong
withtheothersideofthediscussiontheycreateconfusionandmisunderstandinginstead.Dontbelieve
themtobethefoolstheyportraythisisallbydesign.

Extras

Blackmailwheretheresultofthethreatisunknown.

I'llkillyouifyoudon't(isknown)

I'lltellyourwifeyoucheatedonher(willmywifebelievethem,whatwillhappentothekids,
willthisaffectourfriends,whatwillhappeniftheydothis....)

Anotheronewouldbeturningsomethingintoabet,"youcleanupthekitchenandI'llcleanupthe
bedroom"ifsomeonecomplainsyoucouldsuggest"doubleornothingrockpaperscissors?"I'mnot
sayingtheywillavoidthebet,butthenatureofbeingunsureoftheresultwouldbemotivationtoagree
withtheinitialstatement.

TheThreatof"callingthepolice"providedthepersonhasfullbeliefinyourconvictionwouldbeplaying
ontheambiguityeffect,youmaynotevenberightinthesituation,butthepossibilityforbeing
misunderstoodorthingsbecomingcomplicatedwouldbelesspreferablethanwhatevertheThreatwas
about,sayleavingthearea.

Remindsmeoftheoldidiom"betterthedevilyouknowthanthedevilyoudon't."

Infactyoucouldusethatasa"thoughtterminatingclich"Ihaveyettogooverwhattheyare,
thoughIdiscusstheminlaterposts.

Itsbasicallyaphrasethateveryonetakesforgrantedasbeingtrue,eventhoughitdoesn'treallymake
sense.Itdoesn'tofferenoughinformationtobecontradictedsoitishardtocognitivelydisagreewith.
Whensaidwhenyouaretryingtoforceapoint,thencanThoughtterminateyouropponentinto
agreeing.

There'snosmokewithoutfire.(usedtoconvinceothersthatapersonisguiltybasedon
accusationorhearsayandtodiscouragefurtherexaminationofevidence)
Imtheparent,thatswhy.,Whenyougettobemyageyoullfindthatsnottrue.(Appealto
authority).
"Thisistheexceptionthatprovestherule"
andsoon.

Anchoring
Anchoringorfocalismisacognitivebiasthatdescribesthecommonhumantendencytorelytooheavily
onthefirstpieceofinformationoffered(the"anchor")whenmakingdecisions.Duringdecisionmaking,
anchoringoccurswhenindividualsuseaninitialpieceofinformationtomakesubsequentjudgements.

Nomatterhowlogicalorreasonablesomeoneis,theycanonlybasetheiropinion,theirreasoning
aroundwhattheyknow,iftheinitialpieceofinformationtheyreceiveisincorrecttheywillbuilda
strictureoflogicandreasononafoundationofdisinformation.

Gameslikecluedo,garrysmod(troubleinterroristtown/murder)whereyouhavetofigureoutthe
puzzleusinglogicandreasoningcanbetotallyundonebyonepersonnotplayingproperly,lyingornot
understandingtherules.

Thiscanbeexploitedbydevaluingaproductorovervaluingitdependingonwhatisprofitableforyou.
Equallyyoucandevalueorovervalueyourselforotherssocialstandingdependingoncontext.The
initialpieceofinformationisalwaysusedcomparatively.

Sometimesthiscanhavetheoppositeeffectasintendedandthatneedstobefullyunderstood.For
instancewhenyourfriendtalksaboutthisnewfriendthat"youwouldloveheisreallyfunny"andyou
meethimwithahighexpectationofhimtobefunny,onlytobedisappointedandyouthenhold
negativesocialopinionofyournewacquaintanceduetonofaultofhisown.

Anchoringisalsowhyitcanbehardtochangehowyourcloselongtimefriendsperceiveyou.
Example

Thisoneisabithardertoabuseinthedaytoday,ittakesalotofwork.Itworksbestwhenyouhave
generatedareputationorpersonaaboutyourselfwherepeopleadegreeofseparationawayfromyou
hearaboutyoufromotherpeople,andtheyhearsomethingthatfavoursyou.

I'msureyouhaveallheardbeforeyoumetthatoneguy,howheisreallyfunnyandyoushouldlikehim?
muchlikethat.Mainlybecausethefirsttimeyoumeetsomeonetheywillhavelikelyheardaboutyou,
soanythingyouhavetosayforyourselfismoot.Withthatbeingsaidweallknowhowimportantfirst
impressionsare?that'sanchoringandapparentlythatshitlastsforever.

Weusedtoseethismoreinmedia,butithasbeencrippledbytheinternet,astheinternetisfaster,
thereisnowaytopresentaseriesofeventsinawaytopresentaspecificideaintimetocompetewith
theinternet,halfthetimetheinternetiswrong,butwithoutoversightwesacrificecredibilityforspeed,
andmediaoutletshavetocompetewiththat.Thefrontpageofanewspaperwouldbeaperfect
example,tryingtoconveyanoteworthystoryfirsttogetthatanchoringeffect,youcouldclearlyseein
politicalstorieswhichsidethenewspaperchosedependingonhowtheywouldphrasetheexactsame
seriesofeventstryingtoswaypublicopinion.

AttentionalBias
Attentionalbiasisthetendencyofourperceptiontobeaffectedbyourrecurringthoughts.For
example,peoplewhofrequentlythinkabouttheclothestheywear,paymoreattentiontotheclothesof
others.

Knowingsomeone'sinterests,whattheypayattentionto,whichisn'thardtodaywithsocialmedia.you
canshapeapersonathatisfavourabletothem,overtlyshowinginterestinthingstheyshowinterestin
willattracttheirattentionandrespect.

Peoplearemoreinclinedtoagreewithpeoplewhoseopinionsappearonthesurfacetobesimilarto
theirs,thisisamajorstructureofsociety.itswhyweagreewithourpoliticianseventhoughwemay
disliketheminregardstoissuesonaninternationallevel.forinstancealotofpeoplethinkDavid
Cameronisatool,butthosesamepeoplewillagreewithhimwhenhemakesantiputinremarks.
becauseheisfromtheUKandclosertotheirintereststhensomeonefromRussia.

Equallyif2ofyourfriendsfight,onanissueyouknownothingaboutandhavenopreestablished
opinionof,youwilllikelysidewiththefriendwhosharescloseropinionsandintereststoyoursasyou
haveestablishedinyourmindthatyouthinksimilarlyandthustheiropiniononthisissuewouldlikelybe
similar.

Exploitingthisisgoodforclimbingsocialladders,gettingpromotedatwork,learnandshowinterest
overtlyinthehobbiesandinterestofyoursuperiors.

Example
Thisiseasy,ifyouhaveatarget,sayapotentialemployer,lookthemuponfacebook,linkedin,reddit
evenwhereeverlearnabouttheirinterestsandfindanopportunitytodisplaysharedinterestinvarious
areas.thiswillaltertheirperceptionofyoufavourably.usingtheBenjaminFranklineffectandrather
thanpresentingpossiblyfallibleopinionsonatopicyouhavenorealinterestin,byaskingtheiropinion
andshowingrespectforit,theywilllikeyoumorebecausetheywillfeelgoodforhavingtheiropinion
respected.

AvailabilityHeuristic
Theavailabilityheuristicisamentalshortcutthatreliesonimmediateexamplesthatcometomind.The
availabilityheuristicoperatesonthenotionthatifsomethingcanberecalled,itmustbeimportant.
Subsequently,peopletendtoheavilyweightheirjudgmentstowardmorerecentinformation,making
newopinionsbiasedtowardthatlatestnews.

Themediapreysonthisone,andtheymakeseriouscashflowfromit.Equallycompaniescanriseand
fallonthisissue.Malaysiaairlinesisaperfectexample.Nuclearenergyisanotheronethatreceivesa
negativewraponthis,Nuclearenergyworksfineeverydaynoissuesbutnoonecareswhenthingswork
asintended,butlessthanahandfulofissuesandtheworldneverforgets.Becausetheonlynotable
thinganyonecanthinkaboutnuclearenergyiswhenitgoeswrong.

Thisonecanbeexploitedbothnegativityandpositively,justlikethemedialikestoremindusofthe
bad,remindingsomeoneofthebadaspectsofa3rdpartyconsistentlywillskewtheirperspectiveof
that3rdparty.Itwillbeunproductivetousewordstoperpetuateafavourableopinionofonesself,but
ifyoucanarticulateasituationwhereothersperpetuateit.Itwillincreaseyoursocialcapital,justdon't
beunrealisticasitcanbeselfdefeatingifyoudon'tliveuptothepersonayouhavedesigned.Ifyou
perpetuatetheideathatyouareawesomeandnevermakemistakesyetareanincompetentshit,
peoplewillseethroughitfastandyourtimewillbeheavilywasted.

RecentlyoverthelastyearIhadfunperpetuatingtheideathatIwasahorribleperson,thebonusofthis
isonceyourpersonagraduatesintoacultofpersonalityinregardstonegativepublicopinion,
everythingbadthatoccursgetsblamedonyou,chaoticbadlucktypeeventsandpeoplesmistakes,not
unlikehackersinthemediaorterroristsonthepoliticaltableyoubecomeascapegoatandtheblame
perpetuatesyourpersona.Itcanhoweversnowballbeyondyourcontrol.KevinMitnikendedupin
prisonbecausetheideaofhimasabadguywaslargerthanwhohereallywas,anditmadepeople
afraid.

Example

Thisisexploitedbymakingyoursuccessesnotableandyourfailingsunnoticeable,whenpeoplethen
thinkofyoutheythinkonlyofyoursuccesses.Equallyifyouhaveanrivaloradversaryremindingpeople
abouttheirfailingswillperpetuatetheideathattheyareunderpreformingandmakeyoulookbetter
comparatively.
Peoplehaveanissuewheretheydon'trememberthelasttimesomethinghappenedbutratherthelast
timetheyrememberit,eachrecollectionwillbeskewedbythatpersonsbiasesandperspective.Ihave
onmorethanoneoccasionswayedsomeone'sopinionofme,tobesofavourablethatlookingbackthey
thenaccreditedtheiractionstome.TheylearnedandsawfirsthandthatIcanbeaquiteadeptsocial
engineerandthatmanypeopledidasIexpectedanddesired,thenlooking,knowinganactiontheydid
wasinmyinteresttheythenquestionediftheyhadbeensociallyengineeredintodoingit.towhichI
thenbadlydeniedthiscreatingabackfireeffectandtheyconvincedthemselvesthatIactuallywas
responsibleformuchoftheiractions.Thisisdangerousaspeoplewithlargeegosorwillbecome
disenfranchisedandmaybeevensuicidalwhentheyareconfrontedwiththeideathattheymaynot
havefreewillorcontrolovertheirownactions.

Extras

Suicidal?

Yesactually,whensomepeoplebuildtheirpersonalityaroundtheiregoespeciallyoneorientated
towardsintellect.wheretheythinkveryhighlyoftheirownmentalability,eventhoughitisimpossible
todefendagainstthingsyoudon'tknoworcan'tsee.

Itsalmostanextensionofthedunningkurgereffect[1]whichisacognitivebiasmanifestinginunskilled
individualssufferingfromillusorysuperiority,mistakenlyratingtheirabilitymuchhigherthanis
accurate.Thisbiasisattributedtoametacognitiveinabilityoftheunskilledtorecognizetheirineptitude.

Basically,theyhaveanideawhotheyare,basedonwhattheythinktheyknowandtheyusethistoform
aperspectivetoviewtheworldwith,whenyouunderminethatyoudestroytheiregoresultinginvery
mildsenseofegodeath[2]asthecognitivedissonance[3]theyhavebecomeaccustomedtogets
removedandtheirworldisutterlychanged.

PersonallyIwouldconsidersociallyengineeringaseriesofeventsthatresultsinsuicideaformof
murder,evenaccidentally.Weshouldbeawaremorethananyonethepotentialofwhatwedoand
accountableforthoseactions.Imakeapointofnotteachingpeopleunder18andIphraseitas"I'mnot
inthebusinessofgivinggunstokids"therecanbecollateraldamageandoftenisandwhateverethical
shadeofengineeringyoudotherisksarealwaysthere.Peoplewhoareconceitedwithlargeegosare
oftenthemostvulnerabletothesekindsofattacks,andequallyasfragile.

Despiteevenmyknowledge,awarenessandrestraintinthelastyearaloneIhavehadtowithholdmy
actionsentirelyoutoffearofpushingsomeonetoofarindirectly.Onepersonbecamesoseriousthey
hadtobekeptonsuicidewatchforabout2weeks.

Eveniftheydon'tgosofarastokillthemselves,theycanbeleftawilllessbrokenindividualwithno
motivation.Theyessentiallygiveuponlifeornotactinadefiantsenseofspiteastheyquestiontheir
ownfreewillaconclusiontheyoftencometoisthattheonlywaytowinisnottoplay,suicideor
inaction,Theycometobelievethatanyotherchoicemightnotreflecttheirchoicesatallandliveina
perpetualstateofselfquestioning.
Basicsocialengineering,thekindthatiscommonhereisrepackagingyourselftofitsomeone'sdesires
tobecomedesirableandhavevalue.

Iworkattheotherend,shapingandchangingnotevenjustapersonbutagroupofindividuals,
changingtheirperspectiveandopinionssothattheywillappreciatemewithoutme,myselfhavingtodo
anyregularworkinmaintainingafaade.incorrectlyapproachedchanginghowsomeoneviewsthe
worldcanbequiteliterallylifechanging,andnotalwaysforthepositive.Whereassomesocial
engineersplaythepartofanactor,pretendingwhatIdowouldbeclosertodirectionandworkingwith
fixedperspectiveensuringtheaudienceor"target"viewssomethinginadesiredmanner.

HopefullyafterestablishingafoundationandthenfundamentalsIcanworkonconveyinghowsomeone
mightgoaboutthat.

Everyonewantssomething,theyliveforit,somepeoplegetajob,workformoneytopursuethis,aftera
timeassociatemoneywiththeirgoalsanddesires.Someevenforgetaboutwhattheywantinlifeand
justpursuemoney.whatevenismoney,itsalie,abitofpaperwehaveallagreedhasanassumed
value,andbecausewehaveallagreedthatliebecomestrue,societyworksbecauselies,ideascan
becometrueifenoughpeopleagreetothem.

IntheendThesethingsdon'tmatter,ifyoupersonallyfoundoutiftherewasorwasnotagod
tomorrow,Theworldwouldn'tchangebutyourworldwould,yourperspectiveandhowyouviewthese
thingswouldchangeforever,butyourknowledgewouldn'tmakethingsmoreorlessrealforthe
millionsofpeoplewhodoordonotbelieveinsuchthings,andMoreimportantlyifyoucouldImpart
yourknowledgewithoutevidence,thenyoudon'tneedevidenceandtheanswertothatquestionis
irrelevantbecauseyoualreadyhavetheskillsrequiredtoconveyalifechangingmessage.

Money,isanidea,anideathatsomethinghasvalue,ifyoucanimparttheideathatyouhavevalueyou
canchangehowpeopleviewyou.EvengreateragainifyoucanImparttheideatoyourselfthatYou
havevalue,youcanchangehowyouseeyourselfandhowyouseetheworld,itiseasiertochangeyour
ownperspective,howyouseetheworldandhowtheworldappears,thantochangetheworlditself.I'm
gettingabitofftopichere,butwhatI'mtryingtoconveyisifyoucandestroyaman,hismindandpush
himtothinkhehasnolifevalue,andsuicideisthebestoption.Youcanequallydoanequivalentgood,
notonlytoothersbutalsoyourselfthepotentialisnearlimitless.

AvailabilityCascade
Thetrutheffect,theillusorytrutheffectortheillusionoftrutheffectisthetendencytobelieve
informationtobecorrectbecauseweareexposedtoitmoretimes.

Thisstemsfromthesocialissuethatwearetoldalotofinformationweassumetobetruefrombirth,
don'ttouchthatthat'shot,that'sdangerousandsoon.Werarelyoroftenjustcan'tverifyinformation
firsthand,liketheEiffeltowerisinParissurebuthaveyoupersonallyverifiedthattobetrue?Sooften
takepeopleswordforit.Themorepeoplethemorelikelyitistobetrue.
Manyofyoumighthaveheardthe"fact"peopleswallow6orsospidersayearintheirsleep.Thisisa
perfectexampleofnotonlytheCognitivebiasbutsocialengineering.AstheSnappleCompany
publishedanumberofincorrectfactsontheirlidsithasbeendebatedthattheypublishedthese
incorrectfactsintentionallyasasocialexperimentinsuggestibility.

ThisisverycloselytiedtoAvailabilityHeuristicasmentionedlasttimewherepeopletendtobelieve
thingsthataremoreprominentintheirmemories,inconjunctionwithAttentionalBiaswherepeoples
perceptioncanbeaffectedbyrecurringthoughtswecanseewhythe"fact"aboutswallowingspiders
perpetuatedsodeeplyintosocietycomparedtotheotherincorrectfacts.

Peoplesnaturalfearofspiders,whichisverycommon,meansthisisanattentionalbias,theythink
aboutitalot,bringitupwhentheopportunityisavailable,Theshockingnatureofthe"fact"meansit
sticksinpeoplesmindscausinganAvailabilityheuristicmeaningmorepeoplesayit,andmorepeople
thinkaboutitwhichmeansitmustbetrueright?CausinganAvailabilitycascade.

Itcanbeveryhardtoreasonsomeoneoutofapositiontheyneverreasonedthemselvesinto.When
manycognitivebiasessuchasthisburdensomeonewithanidea,itcansometimescauseCognitive
dissonanceforthemtochangetheirbelief.Inpsychology,cognitivedissonanceisthementalstressor
discomfortexperiencedbyanindividualwhoholdstwoormorecontradictorybeliefs,ideas,orvaluesat
thesametime,orisconfrontedbynewinformationthatconflictswithexistingbeliefs,ideas,orvalues.
Peopledon'twanttoexperienceStressordiscomfortleadingtowillfulignorancewheresomeonewould
ratherignorethenewcorrectinformationthenbeconfrontedandfindthattheirbeliefsarewrong.It
steaksheavilyinpride,someonewouldratherbelievethemselvesrightthenconfirmtheyhavealways
beenwrongaboutsomething.Thelongertheirbeliefhasbeenthemorewillfultheywillbeabout
protectingthesebeliefs.Itcangettothepointtheywillactivelytrytoconvinceothersofwhatthey
believebecauseoftheothercognitivebiasesandtheirunconsciousunderstandingofthem.Ifthey
believewhattheybelievebecauseeveryoneelsedid,themorepeoplewhobelieveitthemoretrueit
mustbe.Afteratimealie,anidea,abeliefcanbecomeselfperpetuating.InthisinstanceIwon'tpoint
outwhatpartsofsocietymightbeahometoaselfperpetuatingliebutI'msureyoucanobservethem
foryourselves.

Thiscansimplybeexploitedbyremindingsomeoneaboutsomething,eitherpositiveornegative
dependingonyourgoals.Thoughifyouareremindingthemaboutsomethingpositiveaboutyouit
won'thaveasstronganeffect.

BackfireEffect
Whenpeoplereacttodisconfirmingevidencebystrengtheningtheirbeliefs.Peopledisplaythisbias
whentheygatherorrememberinformationselectively,orwhentheyinterpretitinabiasedway.The
effectisstrongerforemotionallychargedissuesandfordeeplyentrenchedbeliefs.

Theeffectisalsostrongerforemotionallychargedpeople,AsInotedinmylastpostIspentthelastyear
developinganegativecultofpersonalitywhichitselfbecameselfperpetuatingasIreceivedblamefor
everythingbadthathappenedandstrengthenedtheideathatIwasanawfulperson.Whenyoupiss
someoneoff,fuckwiththemandburdenthecomfortoftheirlife,theymaybecomeangry,emotionally
charged.Theconfirmationbiaswasintheendmyundoing.AsIcouldn'trationallyexplainmypointof
vieworescapeblameforwhollyawfulactsthatwerenotbymyhand,norbymydesign.

Inaninstancewheresomeonehasabadreputation,itwillbeharderobviouslytobelievethem.Faced
withamanwhoisaregisteredsexoffenderandawomanclaimingrape,evenwithnoevidenceonthe
tableeventhemostlogicalandreasonablejury/judgewouldbebiasagainsttheregisteredsexoffender.
ThissadlyexposespeoplewithaHistorythattheyhavemovedonfromtothingslikeblackmailand
extortion.OntopoftheestablishedfreedomofinformationintheUSAinregardstosexoffenders,I
haveheardstoriesofethicallyquestionablewomenusingtheseresourcesasashoppinglistforpotential
targetsforblackmailandextortion.

AsstatedinthelastposttheAmbiguityeffect.Theambiguityeffectisacognitivebiaswheredecision
makingisaffectedbyalackofinformation.Notbeingsureoftheoutcomefromthepotentialresponse
totherefusalofpaymentwouldbeaheavierweightthanknowingsure,saythethreatbeingthatof
death.Duetothis,thiskindofextortioncanleadtosuicide,asothercognitivebiasdrivehomethesense
ofperil.Constantlythinkingwhatcould,whatmighthappeniftheaggressormadesuchaclaim,the
uncertaintyoftheoutcometheunknownpossibilitiesbeingburdenedwithlifechangingbadpast
experiencesandthepossibilitythatthismighthappenagain.Ifonewereinthatsituationitwouldbe
veryhardtohavearationalresponse.

Thiscanbeexploitedbyfeigninginterestinremovingsomeonefromabeliefpositionyouhaveputthem
in.Losingtheargumentwillhavetheaddedeffectofthembeingabletorememberwinning.ifyouhave
highpoliticalorsocialcapitalitwillstandtotheirdefensenexttime."ridikissmartandhecouldn'tfind
aflawwithmyargumentsoitmustbetrue"IonceusedthiswhenIcreatedascenariowherepeople
discoveredafakepersonaIhadarticulatedthemtofind,Ideniedthatthatpersonawasmyrealidentity,
butIdiditbadlyandhadnobackupevidencetosaythatwasthecase,thustheythoughtIwaslyingand
themselvescleverforseeingpastmylies,asIhadareputationasaliarandtrickstertheythought
themselvesespeciallycleverforseeingpastmylie.

Extras

TheBackfireeffectisanimportantoneforsocialengineering.Asifyouarearguingthatyouarenot
something,whichismakingsomeonebelieveitmore.Ifthatsomethingbenefitsyou.youwillbemore
legallyprotectedthenifyoujustturnupandsayyouarethekingofFranceandyouwantfreestuff.

BandwagonEffect
Thebandwagoneffectisaphenomenonwherebytherateofuptakeofbeliefs,ideas,fadsandtrends
increasesthemorethattheyhavealreadybeenadoptedbyothers.Thisisincreasedbyothercognitive
biasesaswearequicklylearningeverythingis.Butthehowandwhyofithasbeenmostlyexplained
throughmyexplanationoftheothercognitivebiases.
Thebandwagoneffectisyourcutanddrysocialpeerpressure,ifsomeoneonthebandwagonis
someoneyoulikeorholdfavorforyoumayalsoincuranattentionalbiasandifyourfriendsarealso
participatinginthefadorwhathaveyou.AvailabilitycascadeandAvailabilityheuristicwillalsobe
present.

AlotofwhatI'mpointingouthighlightswhyagroupofsocialengineerscanbesoverypowerful,they
increaseinabilityexponentiallywhentheirnumbersgrowadditively.

BaseRateFallacy
Bothalogicalfallacyandacognitivebiasthisone.Baseratefallacy,alsocalledbaserateneglectorbase
ratebias,isanerrorinthinking.Ifpresentedwithrelatedbaserateinformation(i.e.generic,general
information)andspecificinformation(informationonlypertainingtoacertaincase),themindtendsto
ignoretheformerandfocusonthelatter.Thisiswhatthebaseratefallacyrefersto.

"Onedeathisatragedy;onemillionisastatistic."~JosephStalin

JoeyStalin'sfamouswords,sumthisoneupperfectlyIdon'tthinkIhaveheardanaveragepersongive
onefatshitaboutthedeathstatisticsinmycountry,murder,caraccidents,householdaccidents
whatevernoonereallycares.Butoneblondhairedblueeyedlittlegirlgetsthebadnewsanditmakes
internationalnewsandsuddenlywhyisn'tanyonedoinganythingaboutit?Ipersonallyholdacertain
amountofcontemptfortheslacktivismpeoplewhomakeapointaboutgivingashitaboutthenextbig
thingtocareabout,anyonerememberKony?

Thiscanandisexploitedbythemediaeveryday,findastorythatappealstotheheartstringsofa
demographicandstartplayingtheworldssmallestviolin.

Ioftensay,whatisbeingsaiddoesn'toftenmatter,butwhyitsbeingsaidandIcan'thelpbutfindan
agendabehindwheneveronetragedy,onedeathoroneinstanceismadeouttoseemmoreimportant
thananotherofstatisticallyequalrelevance.Peopletryingtouseemotiontoconjureareactionalways
haveanagenda.ThisconversationbetweenHermanngoringandGustaveGilbertduringtheNuremberg
WarCrimesTrialsin1946Ifindalwaysconveysmysentiment.

Gring:Why,ofcourse,thepeopledon'twantwar.Whywouldsomepoorslobonafarmwantto
riskhislifeinawarwhenthebestthathecangetoutofitistocomebacktohisfarminonepiece?
Naturally,thecommonpeopledon'twantwar;neitherinRussianorinEnglandnorinAmerica,nor
forthatmatterinGermany.Thatisunderstood.But,afterall,itistheleadersofthecountrywho
determinethepolicyanditisalwaysasimplemattertodragthepeoplealong,whetheritisa
democracyorafascistdictatorshiporaParliamentoraCommunistdictatorship.

Gilbert:Thereisonedifference.Inademocracy,thepeoplehavesomesayinthematterthrough
theirelectedrepresentatives,andintheUnitedStatesonlyCongresscandeclarewars.
 Gring:Oh,thatisallwellandgood,but,voiceornovoice,thepeoplecanalwaysbebroughttothe
biddingoftheleaders.Thatiseasy.Allyouhavetodoistellthemtheyarebeingattackedand
denouncethepacifistsforlackofpatriotismandexposingthecountrytodanger.Itworksthesame
wayinanycountry.

Extras

Asfarasbaseratefallacy,doyoumeansomethinglikehowtheamericangovernmentmilks9/11and
anyothertragedytheycanuseandtheeffectonthepublic'sresponse?

Notsomuch9/11thatwasevenstatisticallyabigdeal.Moreliketrayvonmartinandotherindividual
cases,thatarestatisticallystillonedeath/murderbutithasadisproportionateeffectonpublicopinion.

BeliefBias
Beliefbiasisthetendencytojudgethestrengthofargumentsbasedontheplausibilityoftheir
conclusionratherthanhowstronglytheysupportthatconclusion.

Whenexposedtoanexaggerationorfabricationaboutcertainreallifeoccurrencesorfacts,some
peoplewillperceivethefictionalaccountasbeingtruerthananyfactualaccount.

Thishasbothaggressiveanddefensiveapplications.Aggressivelyitcanbeusedtoundermineatarget
opinionorstatement,defensiblyifyoucanarticulateabeneficialseriesofeventsinwhichmanypeople
fallvictimtheprideoftheobservercansometimespreventthemfrombelievingheisavictim.

Ioncearticulatedaseriesofevents,asIhavereferencedwhereIportrayedanevilpersona,duringsaid
eventsItoldsomeonemy"evil"planmuchlikeasupervillainmonologue,Thebestbitwaswhenhe
wentandtoldeveryone,orrathertried.Noonebelievedhimanditdiscreditedhissocialstanding
significantly.Imagineifyouwill,anolderbondvillainwasrealandyoufullyknewhisplan,butlacked
anyformalevidence.Itwouldbeimpossibletogetanyonetobelieveyou.

Peoplewouldratherthinkyouareacrazyconspiracytheoristthenaccepttheinformationyoupresent,
thebonusoftheseseriesofeventsisitsoftensthemassesiftheplansdogetrevealed,italsodiscredits
theminadvance."Crazypeoplehavebeensayingthatforyears"evenevidencegetsundermined.For
instanceifsomeonehadrealseriousinformationaboutaliensorajfkassassinationitwouldbehardfor
thepublictoacceptthisinformation,aftersomanyyearsofassumingsimilarinformationtobeuntrue.
Thisisassumingthepeopledenyingtheclaimshavemorepoliticalorsocialstandingthanthepeople
withtheevidence,andtherearerarefewpeopleororganizationsthathavemorepoliticalorsocial
standingthanagovernment.

ThisisabyproductoftheAvailabilitycascadeascoveredinthelastpost,becausepeopleareexposedto
theideathatinformationaboutthistopichashistoricallybeenuntrue.Ifindthisquotefittingtothis
regard.
 "Inwartime,truthissopreciousthatsheshouldalwaysbeattendedbyabodyguardoflies."
~WinstonChurchill

Althoughwearenotinastateofwartime(dependingonwhereyouarefrom),weareinastateof
perpetualinformationwarfare,truths,falsetruths,lies,duplicityandeventriplicity.

Goingabitofftopic,butIfeeltheneedtoexplainthis.

[XXXTriplicity:]

Thiswouldbedocumentsondoublecrossingdeployedasacamouflagefordeceptionbytriplecrossing

AsimplecaseofXXXistodeployacomparativelyeasytodiscoverduplicitytoconcealonemoredeeply
protected.Multilayeredsecuritymayserveasamultilayereddecoytoleadawayfromadeep
bunkeredtreasure.Identifiablyweakcomsecmaydivertfrommorevaluablecomms.Asmallerrorto
indicatealargermistakewhichhidesagreatdelusion.

Triplecrossingbyspyservicesthrough,favoritismtocooperativemedia,deliberateleaks,official
publicationsandagencyapprovedpublicationsbymembersandformermemberstousethe
appearanceofopennessasdisinformation,informationmanagementandpropaganda.Theirpurposeis
todistortthroughdeviousdisclosureoffilesdescribingsuchtechniquesandatadeeperlevelto
demonstratetriplecrosstertiarily.

Intheendatreehidesinaforestandbecomespartoftheforest,apersoninacrowdandbecomespart
ofthecrowdatruthinthecompanyofliesanditbecomespartofthelies.Nogovernmentor
organizationcanensure99.999%securitynevermind100%soitbecomesefficienttounderminetruth
ratherthanhideitentirely.

BiasBlindSpot
Thebiasblindspotisthecognitivebiasoffailingtocompensateforone'sowncognitivebiases.People
arelikelytoseethemselvesasinaccurately"betterthanaverage"forpossiblepositivetraitsand"less
thanaverage"fornegativetraits.

ThistiesincloselywithBeliefbiasasifsomeonebelievestheyareunbiasedtheyareinturnlesslikelyto
believetheyhavefallenforarusewithafoundationinacognitivebias.Creatingabackfireeffectas
discussedinthelastpost.

Personbelievestheyareunbiased.Theythenfinditunbelievablethattheycouldbemanipulatedinthis
way.Theythenreaffirmthisbeliefaftertheirconclusion.

Thatseriesofeventsisnormallyclockworktoacomplexarticulationofagroupthoughtstructure,
especiallysowiththecynicaldirectionpopularcultureismovingin,itisseenasintellectuallysuperiorto
becynicalandinthisseriesofeventsthatmindsetisselfdefeating.Thebestadviceistoquestion
yourselfaswellaseverything.Especiallysocialengineers,ourhobbiescanbebadfortheegoanditcan
behardtokeepitreignedin,themoreyouthinkofyourself,andthemoreyouexposeyourselfto
vulnerability.

CheerleaderEffect
ThisistheBiasthatanindividualappearsmoreappealingormoreattractivewhentheyareinagroup.It
isareflectionofsocialcapitalandstatus.Itlegitimizestheindividual,muchlikeajoborothercommon
environmentsdefinesomeoneasnormal.Beingseeninagroupmakespeoplelesslikelytoworryabout
apersonsmentalwellbeingandotherpotentialunknowndrawbacks.

ItactsasanalmostreverseoftheAmbiguityeffectandasistercognitivebiastothebandwagoneffect
visibleacceptancebyothersincreasesindividualpotentialacceptability.Ifanyonereadmypostabout
jurydutyandexitgates,unconsciouslyloneindividualsarealmostconsideredexitgates,bothonasocial
level,andinregardstoapproachability.Someonealone,mightbegoingsomewhere,abouttomeet
someoneorhavesomeotherpriorengagement,whereasagroupbeingsocialarethereineachothers
company.Againreferringtotheambiguityeffect,anindividualinagroupismoreofaknown,thena
loneindividual.

Thebestwaytoexploitthisbiasiswingmen/womenI'mnotanadvocateof/r/redpillsowhenIsay
wingmenImeanaccomplices,orassociates.

Extras

Aboutaccomplices,theycanbeofgreathelpwhenyouwanttobuildareputation,isaverysimple
cognitivebias,youcanuptalkyourselfandyourqualitiestoaperson,butifthatuptalkcamefroma
thirdpartytheintendedtargetismostlikelytopayattentiontoitandbemoreopentobelieveit.

Yeah,lateronwhenIgetintomoredepth,Iwillexplorehowinvoluntaryaccompliceswork,notunlike
aninvoluntarybotnet,usingthemtoproxyinformationandindirectlyengineeryourenvironment.

Aknowledgeableinformedaccompliceworksbest,anditsnicetoshareconversationwiththemafter
thefact,butsometimesyouneedtoembedaspecificthoughtstructureinanalreadyestablishedsocial
structure,thebestwaytodothisistocoerceandindoctrinatealreadyestablishedmembersofthatsaid
socialstructure,butthatinitselfisa4postconversationforanotherday,andwithoutcontextitwillbe
unintelligible.SoI'llprogresswithfoundationandfundamentalsforthetimebeing.

ChoicesupportiveBias
Choicesupportivebiasisthetendencytoretroactivelyascribepositiveattributestoanoptiononehas
selected.Forexample,ifapersonbuysacomputerfromAppleinsteadofacomputer(PC)running
Windows,heislikelytoignoreordownplaythefaultsofApplecomputerswhileamplifyingthoseof
Windowscomputers.

AsIexplainedinmylastpostaboutAvailabilitycascade,cognitivedissonanceandwillfulignoranceplay
amajorroleinthisoneaswellasAttentionalbias,aswellasBiasblindspot.

Weseealotofthisintheposthypeweeksafterthereleaseofashitgame,diablo3wasamassiveone,
andIsuspectifstarcitizenturnsouttobeshit,peoplehaveinvestedsomuchpersonalstakeinitbeing
thenextbigthing,whichtheyareunlikelytoadmittoitsfailings.

Whenpeoplecommitpersonalstake,theyessentiallygambletheirsocialcapital,theworthoftheir
opinion,onabetonanideathattheycanperceivesomethinginadvance.Ifitisgoodtheygainself
validationbutiftheyarewrongtheiropinionlosesworth,theeffectofthisiswillfulignorancepeople
wouldratherberightthanwrongthusrefusingtoadmittheirmistakeandbearthebruntofplayinga
badgameorusingabadproductorcommittingtoapoordecision.Theywilllikelybeconfronted
regularlywithinformationshowingthemthepoorchoicestheymayhavemade,andtoaccommodate
thistheyneedtoreaffirmtheiropinion,sotheyseekoutflawsintheopponentargumentsandare
willingtobelieveevenfalseones,perpetuatingtheissueintheirmindsandthedecisionasthesuperior
one.Leadingtoaconfirmationbias,whichIhaven'tcoveredyetbutwillnexttime.Itisessentiallythe
tendencytosearchfororinterpretinformationinawaythatconfirmsone'sbeliefsorhypotheses.And
obviouslythebackfireeffectwillalsobeinvolvedhere.

Guymakesbadchoice,engagesinChoicesupportivebias,withaidofthebackfireeffect.Using
Confirmationbiastosupporttheiropinion,constantlydeliberatingthechoiceintheirhead,andwinning
itcausesalotofattentionalbiasandanAvailabilitycascade.

Thisiswhyandhowpyramidschemeswork,itisalmostaformofinvertedsocialengineering,whichis
possiblebythewaybutitsmuchtooearlytogointodetailsthere.Basicallythesepeopleareconvincing
themselvesratherthanothers;theywouldratherdothisthenloseface,admitthemistakeandweaken
theirpride.Theyareessentiallybuyingwhattheyaresellingideawise.Likeanygooddrugdealerwilltell
you,neveruseyourownsupply.

ClusteringIllusion
Theclusteringillusionisthetendencytoerroneouslyconsidertheinevitable"streaks"or"clusters"
arisinginsmallsamplesfromrandomdistributionstobestatisticallysignificant.Theillusioniscausedby
ahumantendencytounderpredicttheamountofvariabilitylikelytoappearinasmallsampleof
randomorsemirandomdata.

ThisisverysimilartoTheGamblersfallacy,soIwillgoontoexplainthatbeforeIexplainthembothin
thecontextofsocialengineeringandpotentialapplications.
 GamblersFallacy
Thegambler'sfallacy,alsoknownastheMonteCarlofallacyorthefallacyofthematurityofchances,is
themistakenbeliefthatifsomethinghappensmorefrequentlythannormalduringsomeperiod,thenit
willhappenlessfrequentlyinthefuture,orthatifsomethinghappenslessfrequentlythannormal
duringsomeperiod,thenitwillhappenmorefrequentlyinthefuture.Insituationswherewhatisbeing
observedistrulyrandomthisbelief,thoughappealingtothehumanmind,isfalse.Thisfallacycanarise
inmanypracticalsituationsalthoughitismoststronglyassociatedwithgamblingwheresuchmistakes
arecommonamongplayers.

TheClusteringillusionnotestheobservationofclustersofoccurrencesduringrandomeventsand
attributessignificancetothem,theGamblersFallacyassumesthattherewillbeaopposingclusterof
equalsignificance,orthatrandomeventsarenotsomuchrandombutevenlydistributedandbalanced.
Thesecollectivelyarewhatpeoplecometocall"luck"and"streaks"inconjunctionwithChoice
supportivebiasandAvailabilityHeuristicwhereaspeoplerememberthingsmorefavourablywhenthey
werebetterandmightforgetlessfavourablethoughtstosupporttheiraction,saygamblingasawhole
andbecausetheonlymemoriestheyhaveinrelationtogamblingarefavourable.IntheInstanceof
lotterieswherethechanceofwinningisstatisticallyveryunlikely,butweallknowofwinnersregularly
occurring,everyoddweekthiswouldalsobeacaseofBaseRateFallacycollectivelytheycanshape
someone'sthoughtsontheissueverystrongly.

ThesimplestwaytothinkabouttheClusterillusionandgamblersfallacywouldbetoimagine,Iflippeda
coin9times,andeachtimeitlandedonheads,anormalcoinperfectlybalancedandIamcontributing
notrickery.Whatwaywouldyouthinkthecoinwouldonnext?

Thetruthisit'sstill50/50,thecoinhasnomemoryofitshistoryintheflippingprocesses,itdoesnot
favortheheadsnortails,thereisnostreakof9tailsinarowduesimplybecauseitowessomedebtto
thebalanceofprobability.Thecoinisalways50/50headsortails,yesstatisticallyitsa512/1chanceto
flipononeside9timesinarow,and1024forittofliponthatsameside10times,butthecoindoesn't
knowthis.

Thiscanbeexploitedbyhedgingyourbets.

Ifyouweretosaybetme1$andIputdown1$headsortailsthatwouldbeafairandbalancedbet.
Howeveriftheheadsoptioncameup9timesinsteadIwouldn'tbelyingtoexplaintoyouthatheads
comingup10timesisa1/1024chance,Imightsaythatisveryunlikelytohappen,Icouldinferoneway
oranotherwhichwayyoushouldtakethebet,"thestreakhasgottaend""Ohmygodwhaddastreakit
won'tstop"

IfIwerebettingandItookheads,Icouldofferwhatwouldbeanapparentfairbet.Iput10$downand
ifIwinIget100$that's10/1oddsonwhatisanapparent1024/1event,howeveritsreallya50/50
event.Ratherthanfinancialgains,gamesofapparentchancecanbegreatat"settlingbets"resolving
conflictormediatingdiscussion,itcaninfactbebettertoarticulatealosslockinginanopponents
decision.Flippingacoiniseasyandpractical,butPersonallyIkeepapairofunusualdiceinmypocketat
alltimesexampleofsuchdicethenotablenatureofunusualdicecreatesanavailabilityheuristicanda
mentalassociation.Ifyouropponentwaiversatanypoint,sayyou'remakingsomekindofbusiness
arrangementtakingthediceoutofyourpocketwithoutsayingmuchwillcauseanAttentionalbiasand
Availabilitycascade.ThisisanimportantpartofEndLevelsocialengineering,youwon'tevenhaveto
usewordsorsaymuch,yourimpartingyourideasrightintothetargetsthoughtprocesses,intotheir
understanding,whentheythinkbackhowtheygotintoanunfavourableposition,youhaveno
observableactionsandthebeliefbiasinsulatesyouinthat"youcan'tcontrolsomeone'sthoughtsdon't
besilly."

IMPORTANTThisisthecoreofthecognitivebiasandlogicalfallacysystemanythingcanbemadeto
soundlogicalorreasonable,dependingonwhichpointofviewyouwanttosupport,equallyyoucan
appeartobesupportingtheirideaoropinionratherthanchangingit.Factsdon'tmatteronly
perception,andusingtheappearanceoflogicandreasonyoucanalterpeoplesperceptionnomatter
howgroundedtheyare,youessentiallyhelpthemtounderstandthingsdifferently,helpthemsee
reason.(Yourreason)

ConfirmationBias
Thisisabigoneladiesandgents,thisfuckerrighthereshapestheworld...sadly.

Confirmationbias,alsocalledmysidebias,isthetendencytosearchfororinterpretinformationina
waythatconfirmsone'sbeliefsorhypotheses.Peopledisplaythisbiaswhentheygatherorremember
informationselectively,orwhentheyinterpretitinabiasedway.Theeffectisstrongerforemotionally
chargedissuesandfordeeplyentrenchedbeliefs.Peoplealsotendtointerpretambiguousevidenceas
supportingtheirexistingposition.

Climatechange,Religion,nationalism,patriotism,abortion,war,whatthefuckever....youThinkof
somethingwheresomeonehastoberightsomeoneelseinevitablyhastobewrong.Thisiscalled
Attitudepolarization.

Attitudepolarization
Attitudepolarization,alsoknownasbeliefpolarization,isaphenomenoninwhichadisagreement
becomesmoreextremeasthedifferentpartiesconsiderevidenceontheissue.Whenpeopleencounter
ambiguousevidence,thisbiascanpotentiallyresultineachoftheminterpretingitasinsupportoftheir
existingattitudes,wideningratherthannarrowingthedisagreementbetweenthem.

I'malittlecaughtouthereassomethingIassumedtobeacommonunderstandingapparentlydoesn't
exist.SoI'llhavetoexplainsomethingsimilarandexplaintherelation.
 Argumentfromignorance
Alsoknownasappealtoignorance(inwhichignorancestandsfor"lackofevidencetothecontrary"),is
afallacyininformallogic.Itassertsthatapropositionistruebecauseithasnotyetbeenprovenfalse.

Falsedilemma
Afalsedilemmaisatypeofinformalfallacythatinvolvesasituationinwhichonlylimitedalternatives
areconsidered,wheninfactthereisatleastoneadditionaloption.Forinstancewheretwoalternative
statesarepresentedastheonlypossibilities,wheninfactmorepossibilitiesexist.Whilstrallying
supportforhisplantofundamentallyunderminecitizensrights,theSupremeLeadertoldthepeople
theywereeitheronhisside,oronthesideoftheenemy.

TheInverseAppealtoignorance
Isthefallacywherebyanargumentisassumedtoberightbecauseitsdirectopposinghasbeen
proven/deemedwrong.Thisoftenresultsinsomeoneattackinganopponentsargumentratherthan
tryingtobolstertheirown."Idon'tneedtoproveI'mrightifIcanproveyouarewrong"

Sopeoplesearchforevidencetoprovethemselvesright,orprovetheiropponentswrong,
interoperatingneutralinformationinapersonallyfavourablemanner,Theyalsomightbelesscynicalor
criticalofthequalityofinformationthattheyfindprovideditsupportedtheirargument.Youmightsee
thisonreddit,peopleagreewitheachother,upvotesandcirclejerk,andsomeonedisagrees?Doyou
haveacitationforthatpieceofinformation?Whereareyourreferences?Greatclaimsrequiregreat
evidence....Andsoon.

Informationisnotbias,itisneithermaliciousnorbenevolentittakesnosides;itisinterpretedbya
personwithoutpredetermination.

Thiscanallbeexploitedmanyways:

Opposeyouropponentsposition,thoughhispositionmightbedesirable,opposeitbadlyand
losetheargument,yourlossishisvictory,anditgalvanizeshisposition.

Feedfalseincredulousinformationthatonitssurfaceappearscredibleandsupportiveofyour
opponentsargument,whichyouarewellpreparedtorefute,thusunderminingthecredibility
ofotherinformationtheyhaveandtheirargumentinitsentirety.

Appealtothevalidityoftheconfirmationbias,youreapatriotaren'tyou,thenwhywon'tyou
letthegovernmentspyonyou?Youlikefreedomdon'tyou,sodoasIsay....youlikepeacedon't
 you?Thenletsgotowar....theHypocrisyknowsnoboundshere,youcansaywhateveryou
wantthemorezealoussomeoneisthemoretheywillgoalongwithallkinds.Whenyoupaintan
enemyastheopposition,welliftheyarewrongthenbytheinverseignorancefallacyandFalse
dilemmatheenemyhastoberight,andnoonewantsthat.

Theglasscastlegambit:Ifyouareinapositionwhereyoucontroladualmonopoly,imagine
owningPepsiandcoke,orMicrosoftandapple,orplaystationandxbox.Ifyoupisssomeone
off,tothepointofemotionalnegativity,anger,hatred,disdaintheyareverylikelytonotonly
sidewithyourcompetitorbutactuallyactivitysupporttheminamoreaggressivemanner
almostoutofspite.Ifyouareinadualmonopolyposition,youcandriveawaycustomersor
patrons,backintoyourownhandsthoughtheyarenowmoreenergizedandactiveand
beneficial.ThisisagambitIcameupwithawhilebackwhenIheldabeneficialpositionina
nichesocialsituation,andanothersimilarpositionanonymouslyinacomparativesocial
position,whichwascompetitivewiththeoriginal.Iwasrunningoutoffreetimetomanage
themboth,soIfracturedone,therewasinternalconflictasIintentionallyranitintotheground,
manymembersinsteadjoinedmyopposinggroupandworkedtwiceashardmotivatedtooutdo
theoriginalgroupoutofspite.Imaygointothisgambitinanothergambitspostanothertime.

ConjunctionFallacy
Theconjunctionfallacyisaformalfallacythatoccurswhenitisassumedthatspecificconditionsare
moreprobablethanasinglegeneralone.Themostoftencitedexampleofthisfallacyoriginatedwith
AmosTverskyandDanielKahneman:

Lindais31yearsold,single,outspoken,andverybright.Shemajoredinphilosophy.Asastudent,she
wasdeeplyconcernedwithissuesofdiscriminationandsocialjustice,andalsoparticipatedin
antinucleardemonstrations.

Whichismoreprobable?

1. Lindaisabankteller.

2. Lindaisabanktellerandisactiveinthefeministmovement.

Themajorityofthoseaskedchoseoption2.Howevertheprobabilityoftwoeventsoccurringtogether
(in"conjunction")isalwayslessthanorequaltotheprobabilityofeitheroneoccurringalone.

Thisisaperfectexampleofhowtoconvincesomeoneofsomethingwithoutlying,infacttellingthem
accurateinformationinadvanceaboutthequestionstargetwouldoftenbedeemedhelpful,thoughit
willinfluencetheirchoiceinthequestion,evenillogicallyso.Sometimesyouwon'thavetoevenaskthe
question.Ifnecessaryyoucouldperpetuatefalseinformationbutyouneedtoarticulatethesituation
thata)theycan'tproveitwrongorb)shouldn'tknowinthefirstplace.

1. Theregionalmanagerofacompanyiscomingtothelocalbranchtoday
 2. Theregionalmanageriswearingasuitandwineshirt,andiscominginasamystery
shopper/customer.

3. Asitssupposedtobeasecretassessmenttheyshouldn'tknow

4. Youappearinasuitandwineshirt,getspecialtreatmentofwhichtheyaren'tsupposedtogive,
becausetheythinkyouaresomeoneyouarenot.

Havingintimateknowledgeofcorporatestructure,isobviouslybeneficialinsucharuse,havingthe
abilitytonamedropotherlocalmanagersitmaybeacaseofjustcallingaheadsayingyour"xyz"from
"abc"andthat"theregionalmanagerwasjustinandheisheadingyourway"

Inregardstothepracticalexamplesofthebaseofthebias,that'sjustacaseofpaintingyouropponent
withabrushtounderminetheirsideofthediscussion.Weseethisatapoliticallevelaroundelection
timealot.

RegressiveBias
Acertainstateofmindwhereinhighvaluesandhighlikelihoodsareoverestimatedwhilelowvaluesand
lowlikelihoodsareunderestimated.

Itisaneffectofrounding,wherepeopletendtopreferinformationinmoresimpledetails,muchlike
whenyoumayturnyouraudiosettingsto45or50butnever47wholeroundnumbersareenmasse
morepreferable.Inthisinstancesomethinglike.0001%=never,andsomethinglike97%or99%=
always,forinstancebelievingaworldendingcometstrikeisimpossiblebecauseitsunlikely.

CombinedwiththeBaseratefallacyandtheAvailabilityheuristicfallacywhichcancognitivelyshiftan
unlikelyeventintothemindsetofaregularevent,itwillshiftanunlikelyeventintoan"always"event.
Catholicpriestsbeingchildmolestersareaperfectexample.Mostanyoneyouwillaskwillsaythat"all
catholicpriestsarechildmolesters"howeverstatisticallypersonperpersoncatholicpriestsareless
likelytobechildmolestersthantheaveragepersonsofarastosaystaticallytheyareunlikelytobechild
molesters.

http://www.newsweek.com/priestscommitnomoreabuseothermales70625

Itisequallypossible,bypavingthewaywiththecorrectcogitativebiasesinthecorrectordertoinverta
1/100chanceofoccurrenceinsomeone'smindtoa99/100chanceandeventuallya100%matteroffact
occurrence,picktherightpersonandtheywilltakeitupasacauseandperpetuatetheideaforyou.
Regardlessofthewhatandwhyofit,ifsomeoneunknowinglyperpetuatesyouragendadueto
intentionalsocialengineeringwecallthesepeople"proxies."

Proxies
Incomputernetworks,aproxyserverisaserverthatactsasanintermediaryforrequestsfromclients
seekingresourcesfromotherservers.

InSocialEngineering,aProxyisaninvoluntarypersonthatactsasanintermediaryforyouoryour
accomplicesseekingtoeitherupstreamordownstreaminformationtoorfromatarget.

Ifsomeoneisknowinglyinon"IT"whateveritmaybetheyareanaccomplice,butmuchlikean
involuntarybotnetwherebypeoplescomputersarehijackedforanalternateagendathantheowners
use,saygeneratingbitcoins,ddosingserversandusedagainsttheirwill.Ifyouhijacksomeone's
thoughtprocessesandskewtheirperceptionandunderstandingalterwhattheybelievetofurtheran
extendedgoaltheyareaproxy.Examplesofproxiesmayinclude...

Datingagirl/guyandsubvertingher/histhoughtprocessesinanefforttogainaccesstoasocial
contact1degreeofseparationaway.

Datingagirl/guyanddownstreamingher/hisinformationfromasocialcontact1degreeof
separationaway.Maybeanimportantpoliticalorbusinesspersonssocialhabit.

Approachingafriendofanintendedtargettoindirectlygainaccesstotheirareaofdiscussion.

hijackingareallifesocialnetworkorgrassrootsnetworktoupstreamapoliticalorsocial
agenda

ThelastoneImentioned,wesawalotofduringtheoccupymovement,withoutclearleadershippeople
couldturnupwithagroupoffriendsbeactiveinthecampforaweekandthendeclarethemselves
leadernewpeoplelackingunderstandingwouldassumethistobetruebecauseenoughpeoplesaidit,
thenthecampwouldbedraggedintosupportingsomealternateagenda,ithappenedtoalotofcamps
andthusmadetheentiremovementlookdirectionless.Beingunwillinglydraggedintoanagendathey
didn'tsupportalsofunctionedasanexitgate,causingstandingdedicatedmemberstoleavethecamps,
removingtheoppositiontothe"usurpers"agenda.Iwasluckyenoughtobepositionedtoobservethis
happeningindividuallyonaglobalscale.

Example

Thebenefitofusingproxiesisthattheyareonthesurfaceanapparentunbiasedsource,ifthepopesaid
"blahblahblahamerica"andCatholicsinAmericanexttotheAmericanpresidentforinstancestarted
perpetuatingthepope'sstatement,thatwouldbeanaccomplicewithclearvisiblecollusiontheirfaith
andconnectiontothepopeshowsbiasandunderminestheirmessage.Howeverifoutofthebluethe
presidentswifeorchiefadvisorsuggestedthatthePopemightberight,thatwouldlendcredibilityto
theinitialstatement.Thoughtheycouldhaveindirectlyhadtheirownopinionswayedbyanaccomplice
inthesocialstructure.Itsthesubversivenatureofaproxythatgivesititspowerandmakesthemso
useful.Alsoifthereisany"political"falloutanaccompliceandtheirconnectiontoyouwillcalldamage
toyoursocial/politicalstandingbytheassociationtheneutralnatureofaproxycreatesalayerof
insulationagainstanysuchdrama,makingthemexcusablecollateraldamageinadiplomaticcontext.
Asfarasexploitingamisunderstandingwherebypeoplethinkyouaresomeoneyouarenot,whereat
nopointyouwillbelying.Itisbesttoarticulateasituationwhereyouareunlikelytobedirectlyaskedto
confirmyouridentity.

Thusyouwon'tlieandconfirmthemisunderstandingorbehonestandundoyourwork.

Thiscanbedoneeitherbyexploitinglegalorethicalresponsibilitywheresomeone"shouldnot"know
whoyouare,thisisespeciallypossibleinAsianculturewheremaintainingfaceandpolitenessiskey.

WhileIwasinJapan,mypersonaltranslatorwasundertheimpression(Idon'tknowwhy:P)thatIwas
Europeannobilitythatwantedtomaintainalowprofile.InanefforttopresentJapanaspositivelyas
possibleshetoldpeoplewithoutmysaysoormypermissionthatIwasEuropeannobility.Ienjoyedthe
fullbenefitsofcelebritystatus,Ienjoyedfreemeals,comfortableseatingandaccommodation
favourableattentionallround.Mypersonaltranslatorinthisinstanceactedasmyproxytogreat
benefit,thecostofapersonaltranslatorwaslessthanthecostofthegainsIhadreceivedfromthe
"misunderstanding".

Downstreaming/Upstreaming
Theprocessesofforwardingorgatheringinformationthroughasocialnetworkofatleast2people.For
instanceIsubmitanideatoyouandyouperpetuateittoyourfriendthatisanupstream.Down
streamingwouldbemegatheringinformationaboutyourfriendsfromyou.TheUpstreamor
DownstreamcanbeaslongasyouwantbutduetoChinesewhispersandlossofmessageintegrityitcan
betrickyandrequirealeveloftalenttoperpetuateanideabeyond2degrees.itissaidthateveryonein
theworldiswithin6degreesofeachotherofcontactfromeachother,sotheoreticallyyoucould
indirectlysocialengineeranyoneontheplanetbyindirectpropagationofideas,maintaindataintegrity,
whilekeepingthevariousproxiesunconsciousoftheiractionsiswithoutquestionmyunfinished
masterwork,andasitsbasedon6degreesofseparation,Itwillbecalled"6degreesofcontrol"itwill
likelybemymagnumopus.Ifeltitwasnecessarytomakeapointaboutitratherthanjustcasually
brushingoverit.Itmaybepracticallyimpossiblebutitistheoreticallypossibleandpushingittoits
practicallimitswilllikelybesomethingthatwilltakemetomyend.Hereisaninstanceofhowmultiple
degreesofupstreamingviaproxiesmightwork.

ME>currentg/fanddaughterof>companyCEOwhoperpetuatesideastohis>employeeswho
thenperpetuateideasto>theirfamilies.

Althoughthatmightsoundsimpleenough,socialengineeringrequiresalotofprecisionandasyour
messagespreadslikebranchesonatree,itgetsdilutedandinaccurate,thiscanbecuredbyexitgatesto
anextentbutfullanddetailedinformationabouteverypossibleandpotentiallinkininthechainwould
needtobegathered,andagametreeforsaidlinksbeplottedout,Theworkwouldbeimmenseanda
computerwouldn'thavetheintuitiontocarryitout.Iheardtellthatpalantirwereworkingon
somethingforsomeAmerican3letteragencybutIcan'tdigupanythingaboutthattolinkto,somaybe
that'snotpublicknowledge.
AnywayI'veonceagaingonemilesofftopic.

Contrasteffect
Acontrasteffectistheenhancementordiminishment,relativetonormal,ofperception,cognitionor
relatedperformanceasaresultofsuccessive(immediatelyprevious)orsimultaneousexposuretoa
stimulusoflesserorgreatervalueinthesamedimension.

Thisisprettysimple,ifyouknowanyannoyingpersonwhoalwaystriestooneupyourstoryeverytime,
thereasonyoufeelannoyedishisoneuppingyoudoesn'tcomparativemakehisstorybetter,butyou're
onelessnotable.Essentiallyunderminingwhatyouhavetosay.Equallyifyouwereinafightwithyour
significantotherandonepartycallstheotheroutonsay"notwashingdishes"the2ndpartymight
highlightthatthefirstpartydidn'tdo"insertotherchorehere"inanefforttounderminethe
importanceofthesupposedissuecausingconflicthoweverthisoftenhasabackfireeffectinthatwhile
itdoesunderminethenatureiftheinitialpointpresented,itpissesoffthefirstpersonbecausethe
pointtheyinitiallymadewas"oneupped"anddiscreditedandtheyfeelthesameslightasonewoulddo
iftheytriedtotellastoryjusttohaveitbested,astempersarealreadyflaringinaheateddiscussionthis
leadstofurtherirrationalbehavior.<that'sworthnotingnexttimeyouhaveadisagreementwith
yourSO,youcanmaybemorestrategicallydisagreewiththempostponefurtherescalationand
irrationalbehaviour,andturnanirrationalargumentintoalogicaldiscussion.

Curseofknowledge
I'msuremanyofyouwouldliketosayyouareavictimofthisone:P.Thecurseofknowledgeisa
cognitivebiasthatleadsbetterinformedpartiestofinditextremelydifficulttothinkaboutproblems
fromtheperspectiveoflesserinformedparties.

Ifyouhaveevertriedtoteacha50yr+personaboutcomputersthisisitrighthere,youcan'teven
comprehendthebasicstufftheydon'tunderstandbecauseitsintuitivetoyou,wordsyoumightuseto
describewhattodoandhowtodoit,arewordsoutsidethelexiconofthepersonyouaretalkingtoyou
mayaswellbeexplainingtoaJapanesepersonwhatthewords"the"and"is"mean.

Thisisbestexploitedwhenplayingdumb,peoplea)liketofeelintellectuallysuperioranditstrokestheir
egotohelpothersandb)beingslowand"dumb"makespeopleimpatientandtheywilloftendothings
foryoubecauseitseasierthanexplainingthingstoyou.Ifyouevertoldanolderpersontogetoffthe
computerandjustdosomethingforthemratherthanexplain"howto"thisisaperfectexample.

Inasocialengineeringcapacity,havingsomeoneelsedoworkforyouandbeimpatientwithyou,butbe
stillfeelinggoodbecauseoftheegobonuscanbeverybeneficial.Ihavegottenthroughpassport
controlandluggagecheckonmorethanonceoccasioninbydoingthissortofthingwhichmanywould
agreeareprettystrictsecuritycheckpoints.AdmittedlyIamawhitemaleandIwasn'tdoinganything
illegalitwasmoretoseeifIcouldsofailureformewasgoingtothebackofthequeue.HoweverIhave
yettomeetanapatheticimpatientpersonwhowantstodealwithanincompetent,ignorant,painfully
innocent,andpolitepersontwice.

Decoyeffect
Thisisasolidonetorememberforyourdaytodayconversationsoranythingworkrelated.Thedecoy
effect(orasymmetricdominanceeffect)isthephenomenonwherebyconsumerswilltendtohavea
specificchangeinpreferencebetweentwooptionswhenalsopresentedwithathirdoptionthatis
asymmetricallydominated.Anoptionisasymmetricallydominatedwhenitisinferiorinallrespectsto
oneoption;but,incomparisontotheotheroption,itisinferiorinsomerespectsandsuperiorinothers.
Inotherwords,intermsofspecificattributesdeterminingpreferability,itiscompletelydominatedby
(i.e.,inferiorto)oneoptionandonlypartiallydominatedbytheother.Whentheasymmetrically
dominatedoptionispresent,ahigherpercentageofconsumerswillpreferthedominatingoptionthan
whentheasymmetricallydominatedoptionisabsent.Theasymmetricallydominatedoptionistherefore
adecoyservingtoincreasepreferenceforthedominatingoption.

Ifyouaresayingcompetinginworkwithanideawithaworkcolleagueormaybesociallyasahostfora
socialengagement,andyourideacompeteswitha2ndidea,youcouldsubmita3rdideawhosesole
purposeistomakeyourinitialidealookbetter.

Sayyouaregoingbacktosomeone'splaceafterthebarfordrinks;youdon'twanttodriveafterwardsor
havetogoanywheresoitsuitsyoutostayinbedandsleepwheneveryoneleaves.Yousubmityour
option,youhavebetterhomeentertainmentandaremorecentrallylocatedsoitseasierforpeopleto
gethomethereafter,butyouarefurtherawaywhereasyouropponentsoptioniscloser,youthenraise
theideaofsomeoneelse'shousewhichisascloseasoption2butinyourdirection,slightlymore
centrallylocatedbutnotasgoodandlackssufficienthomeentertainment.Everypointraisedasa"con"
tothe3rdpointwillnearlybeadirectProinregardstoyoursandbymakingpeoplethinkaboutit
themselvesratherthansayingittothemitisinductedintotheirthoughtprocess.

DenominationEffect
Thedenominationeffectisacognitivebiasrelatingtocurrency,wherebypeoplearelesslikelytospend
largerbillsthantheirequivalentvalueinsmallerbills.

Byitselfitisunremarkable.Howeverinconjunctionwith

TheGambler'sfallacy

BenFranklineffect
 TheSunkcostdilemma

andtheEscalationofcommitment

CollectivelytheycreatewhatIhavecalledthe

StoneSoupGambit
Asnamedafterafolkstoryofthesamename.Thiscanbeusedtoexploitfurthergainsineitherwealth,
assets,timeandcommitmentorevensocialcapital.IhavealreadyexplainedtheBenFranklineffectas
wellasthegamblersfallacybutnottheothertwo,Iwillexplainthemallbeforegoingontoexplainhow
thisgambitworks.

Thegamblersfallacyisthemistakenbeliefthatifsomethinghappensmorefrequentlythannormal
duringsomeperiod,thenitwillhappenlessfrequentlyinthefuture.

TheBenFranklineffectiswhenpersonwhohasdoneorcompletedafavourforsomeoneismorelikely
todoanotherfavourforthatpersonthantheywouldbeiftheyhadreceivedafavourfromthatperson.

LossaversionandthesunkcostfallacyorEscalationofcommitment,hasbeenusedtodescribethe
phenomenonwherepeoplejustifyincreasedinvestmentinadecision,basedonthecumulativeprior
investment,despitenewevidencesuggestingthatthecostofcontinuingthedecisionoutweighsthe
expectedbenefit.

Aquickexplanationwouldbeifsomeonebuysacheapcarbecausetheyareonabudget,andendsup
sinkingmoremoneyintorepairsthanthecostofadecentcar.Howeverinsteadofgettinganewcar,
theyareconvincedthataftertheinitialrepairstheywon'thaveanyfutureissues,andtheyreaffirmthis
stateofmindaftereachrepairprocessesoftenspendingmorethanseveralcarsworthofmoneyon
repairsoftheirshittybanger,andtheircarstillremainsinpoorcondition.

Usingthedominationeffect,itispossibletodripfeedmoneyoutofasourcetothepointofnoreturn
wheretheybecomeveryinvestedinaneventorsituation,specifictothedenominationeffectthiscan
occurduringsocialgamesinvolvinggambling,ifyouareplayingforsmallamountsbreakingnotesdown
intocoinswillmakepeoplemorelikelytopartwiththemandmakeriskierbets.

ButasIsaidthiscanbeappliedtomanyothersituations,oftenmorevaluablethanmoney,liketimeand
energyinacompanystartupgettingpeopletoworkorinvestinalostcausebecausetheyhavealready
investedtimeandenergy,similartopyramidschemesvectormarketingworkthisway,butratherthan
peopleinvestingmoneytheyinvesttimeandenergy,somethingthatisnotillegalwhichstillmakethe
peopleatthetopalotofmoney.ThisisapointIamcontinuallytryingtomake,thereiswaystoget
whatyouwant,directlyorindirectlyinsocialengineering,waysthatarelegalwhereasmanylawsdeal
specificallywithmoneyandwealth,socialcontacts,peoplestimeandenergyandotherresourcescanbe
muchmorevaluableandregulatedinnowayatall,muchofwhichcanbetranslatedintomoneyif
needsbe,butmoneyisameanstoanendsandshouldneverbeanendgoal,asitisadistraction.
 DistinctionBias
Distinctionbias,aconceptofdecisiontheory,isthetendencytoviewtwooptionsasmoredistinctive
whenevaluatingthemsimultaneouslythanwhenevaluatingthemseparately.ThisisverysimilartoThe
DecoyEffectwhichwasthelastpointIcoveredinmypreviouspost,betweenthatandthewikiLinkI
don'tthinkIneedtoexplainthisone.

EmpathyGap
Ahotcoldempathygapisacognitivebiasinwhichapersonunderestimatestheinfluencesofvisceral
drives,andinsteadattributesbehaviourprimarilytoother,nonvisceralfactors.Thecruxofthisideais
thathumanunderstandingis"statedependent".Forexample,whenoneisangry,itisdifficultto
understandwhatitislikeforonetobehappy,andviceversa

Thisiseasilyexplainedas"emotionalpeoplemakeemotionaldecisions"anditcanbeseenalotin
politicswhenpoliticiansandthemediatrytoplayonourheartstrings,fear,rage,angertoeither
distractordrivepeople.Imentionnegativeemotionsastheyaremucheasiertocultivateand
manipulateThereisabenefittothisasanemotionalperson,tononemotionalpeoplewillseem
irrationalandunreasonablebecauseitcanbehardtoempathizewithsomeoneinanemotionalstate.

Iexperimentedwiththismorethanafewtimes,bybeinganunreasonabledicktosomeoneinagroup,
butnotothers,insteadbeingoverlynicetotheothersinthegroup,thetargetbegantoassociatewith
negativeemotionsandhatedme,butintheeyesoftheothersintheirgrouptheyseemedirrationaland
emotionalastheywereinaleadershippositionthisinturnunderminedtheirleadershipandbroughtit
underquestion,allowingmetodefendtheguywhowasattackingme,appearreasonableandin
contrasttothetarget,andseparatelyincontrasttowhathasbeensaidaboutmeappeartobeahumble
andrationalpersonsuitablefortheleadershiprole.Doingthisinconjunctionwithgaslightingthisisa
gambitcalledtheinnocentwhistler.

GasLighting
Gaslightingorgaslightingisaformofmentalabuseinwhichfalseinformationispresentedwiththe
intentofmakingvictimsdoubttheirownmemory,perception,andsanity.Instancesmayrangesimply
fromthedenialbyanabuserthatpreviousabusiveincidentseveroccurred,uptothestagingofbizarre
eventsbytheabuserwiththeintentionofdisorientingthevictim.

Initsbasicformthiswouldbewhensomeonetellsyoutocalmdownwhenyouarecalm,tothepointof
aggravation.sometimesusedbyshittymoderatorswhoaggravatesituationandthenusethenewly
aggravateduserasareasontojustifyharsheraction,likeabaneventhoughitwastheirinitialintentto
activelyencouragefrustrationandaggravation.Sometimestheunintentionalsideeffectofelaborate
wellconstructedpranks,whichcauseatargettoquestiontheirperceptionofrealityandincorrectly
addresscognitivedissonanceintheirnewperception.

TheInnocentWhistlerGambit
TheInnocentWhistlerGambitiswhenyouuseGaslightinginapublicsocialcontexttoundermine
someoneinaleadershippositionwhohasnoauthorityoveryou.Withtheintentionofmakingthem
appearirrationalandweakinordertohavehimreplacedbyaninsideman.Whileappearingpubliclyto
supportthemandtheirorganizationusingtheirapparentirrationalhateofyoutoexpeditethegas
lightingeffect.

Ionceusedthepretenseofaprank,toincludepeopleinagaslightingevent,wherelikean"evilgenius"
inaclichdmannerIrevealedmygoalsandintenttosomeone[thetarget],allmysocialengineering,
variousmanipulationsandmachinationsandmyasyetunaccomplishedendgamegoals.Ireferenced
thiswhenexplainingthebeliefbiasinmy3rdgamesandtheorypost.

Whathappenedafterthetargetwentpublicwiththeinformation,hetriedtoappealtopeopleonaone
ononelevelprivatemessagingpeople,thesepeoplewereinonthe"prank"andrespondedwith
messageslike"It'stoolateridikswon"or"Thereisnothingyoucando,justacceptit"itmusthavebeen
asurreal"invasionofthebodysnatchers"momentforhim,wheninfacteveryonewasjustinona
prank.

Thiscanbeusedtogreateffectwiththe"GlassCastleGambit"asmentionedinthe4thgamesand
theorypost.

Example

Firstlyitsbestusedwhensomeoneisnotyourdirectsuperior,iftheyaretheyhavesomerespect,
authority,andsocialstatusoveryou,ifitbecomesapparenttheydislikeyoupeoplewillassumethereis
areasonforit,alsotheyhaveauthoritytodosomethingaboutit,likewarningsandorinaworkposition
evenfiringyou,itcanstillbedonebutitsharder,ifyouareyourselfamanagerorinaworkplace
leadershiprolethisiswhyyoubringinaneutral3rdpartyratherthandealwithtroublesomeemployees
directly.

Nowontotheactualapplication,

OK,imagineyouworkinamediumtolargecompanyyouareamanagerordepartmenthead.youhave
afriendorassociatewillingtocolludeinanotherdepartmentsoyoudeviseaplantoremovehis
departmenthead,onceyouarebothdepartmentheadsyoucancooperateandcolludewitheachother
butnotwithotherdepartmentheadsyourrespectivecooperationwillincontrastmakeyoubothlook
superioralsoyourabilityasequalstospeakwellofeachotherwillhelpyouclimbingthesocialladder.it
isimportantthatyouactuallydotheworkoryoureffortswillonlyhighlightyourlackofabilityrather
thanitssupposedexceptionalnature.
Sowhatdoyoudo.

YouGasLighttheotherdepartmenthead,colludingwithyourassociateyoucaneventankperformance
intentionallyfromaninternalposition,butthatisriskybecauseitsmoretraceable.

YoucanGaslightin2ways,aggressivelywouldbebyjustinsultingandberatingtheminprivate,doing
thisyoucan'tgetcaughtitthejigisup,itcanbehardtodobecauseitisessentiallycruelbullyingsoit
mightbesuggestibletosourceatargetthatisalreadysomeoneyoudislike.OncewhenIwasdoingit,I
feltbadandsorryfortheguy,thatwasuntilhestartedinsultingmeandmakingthreatsandbasically
beingemotionalandirrationalmysympathyquicklydriedupafterthatepisode.butmakenomistakeit
isaharshpath,stufflikethisiswhymostsocialengineersgetcalledsociopaths.ifyoucangetthemto
hityou,don'thitthembackyoujustwon.Youreallyhavetobebrutal.

Althoughyouarebeingutterlyunreasonable,ontheappearancetheyaretheonesbeingunreasonable.
AsIoftentrytoconvey,informationisrarelyifneverjudgedonitsownmerit,butratheronthemerits
ofitssource.Ifsomeoneisbehavingirrationalandunreasonableandtheysayyou,acalmniceguy/chick
arebehavingIrrationallyandunreasonablyitbringsintoquestiontheirstateofmindandallyouhaveto
doissitthereinnocentlywhistlingandplayingthevictim.

allyouhavetodothenissay"wellIfound"X"beingirrationaltomewhenIhadtointeractwithhis/her
departmentIwentto"Y"heseemsareasonableguy/girlwhoknowshis/herstuff,Ithinktheywouldbe
suitableforthepositionitssomeoneIatleastknowIcancooperatewith.

youonlyhavetomakeanefforttobetheoppositetowhatisbeingsaidtoyou,neverprofaneorcurse,
bepoliteandpleasanttocoworkersandsoon,everysecondworkoutofmymouthis"fuck"soitcan
bealotofworktokeepupthefaade.Butthepayoffishavinganassociateinarankingposition,who
owesyouadebtcolludingwithyouwithinthecompanyforbothyourbenefits.

EndowmentEffect
Inbehaviouraleconomics,theendowmenteffect(alsoknownasdivestitureaversion)isthehypothesis
thatpeopleascribemorevaluetothingsmerelybecausetheyownthem.Thisisillustratedbythe
observationthatpeoplewilltendtopaymoretoretainsomethingtheyownthantoobtainsomething
ownedbysomeoneelseevenwhenthereisnocauseforattachment,oreveniftheitemwasonly
obtainedminutesago.

Consolegamers,Macusers,shitevennationalisticpatriotsI'mlookingatyou.justbecauseyouhaveit
doesn'tmeanitsbetter.

Thiscanbeusedinthestonesoupgambitinthatyoucanactuallygivesomeonesomethingrelatedto
theventure,beforeencouragingthemtoinvestintothelargerventure,andtheywillattributevalueto
theitemandbyassociationtheventureitself.
Youcanalsouseitwiththebackfireeffect,whereyougivesomeonesomething,andtryaskforitback
yourdesiregivingitvalueandthenyousubmittingtoallowingthepersontokeepsaiditemthus
increasingitsperceivedvalue.

ThisisalsoaffectedbytheChoicesupportivebiasandlatertheConfirmationbiasafterpeoplehave
decidedtheyarecommitted.Tothiseffectyoucanactuallyinvolvesomeoneandgetthemtocommitto
aninvestmentbygivingthemsomethingratherthantakingsomethingfromtheminitially,peoplebeing
inherentlylessskepticaltoreceivefreethingthentheyhavetocommitnothinginreturn.Aperfect
exampleisagamblingwebsiteoreventthatgivesyouaninitialamounttospendorgamble.

Theamountofcognitivebiasesexploitedbyonlinegamblingespeciallyinthesituationwheretheygive
youmoneyinadvancetogamblewillrequireitsownpost,whichImightdonext,asitwillmake
referencingwhatI'mtalkingabouteasier.

Experimenter'sbias
Inexperimentalscience,experimenter'sbias,alsoknownasresearchbias,isasubjectivebiastowardsa
resultexpectedbythehumanexperimenter.Forexample,itoccurswhenscientistsunconsciouslyaffect
subjectsinexperiments.

Thisonedoesn'treallyhelpsocialengineers,butitisimportanttobeawareof,aswhenyourexperience
withsocialengineeringbecomesintuitiveandnaturalsomethingyouwon'tneedtothinkabout,itcan
beprobabletounconsciouslyinfluencepeople,andpossiblethatindoingsoyoumayunconsciously
influencepeopleinawayyouexpectthemtobehave.

Youexpectsomeonetobetrouble,soyouunconsciouslyinfluencethemintocausingtrouble,you
expectsomeonetomakeamistakesoyouunconsciouslyinfluencethemintomakingamistakeandso
on.Yourthoughts,yourassumptionsbecomeasordidselffulfillingprophecy.

ThisisusuallysupportedbythebiasblindspotandtheConfirmationbias.

AsIhavebeenmakingovertlyclear,itspossibletoconvincemanypeopleofanything,foranyreason
andifenoughpeoplebelievethatthingitthenbecomestrue,thisisthenatureofsociety.Money,
justice,honour,respect,religionareallIdeasthatwecollectivelyagreearetrue,Truthitselfisjustan
ideaandwhatwedoisinessenceapsychologicalsleightofhand,bringingattentiontodesirabletruths
andremovingattentionfromundesirabletruthsforwardingouragendawithourliesor
misrepresentationistheidealwestrivefor.Thishowevercanaffectus,equally.ThisiswheretheDark
Triadcomesin.

Thesimplesenseofpowerthatcomeswithunconsciouslyinfluencingpeoplesideas,opinionsand
choices,havingthemandtheirpersonalitiesutterlyremodelbyyouasyouseefit,foryourownends
andmeanscanbeselfdepreciating.ItiswhyIdon'tteachpeopleunder18anymore.Havingpersonally
seenfirsthandtheeffectsofsocialengineeringontheusersegoandpersonalityastheylearnand
adapttothenewinformationandperspective,andsubsequentlystoplearning.Evenafteratime
thinkingtheyknowmoreoraremoreexperienced,duetothehubrisofyouth.Dismissingthevery
informationtheyoriginallysoughttolearn,theveryinformationthatcouldkeepthemdefendedagainst
anegativeshiftinpersonality.

TheDarkTriad
Thedarktriadisagroupofthreepersonalitytraits:narcissism,Machiavellianismandpsychopathy.The
useoftheterm"dark"reflectstheperceptionthatthesetraitshaveinterpersonallyaversivequalities.

Consideringthenatureofsocialengineering,weasacommunityhaveaknackforattractingpeople
whosepersonalitiesleanheavilyintheseareasasitis,aperspectiveshiftasaresultofpracticingones
abilitiescanbedevastatingcoupledwithanyofthesealreadystandingpersonalitytraits.

Narcissismischaracterizedbygrandiosity,pride,egotism,andalackofempathy

Grandiosityreferstoanunrealisticsenseofsuperiorityasustainedviewofoneselfasbetter
thanothersthatcausesthenarcissisttoviewotherswithdisdainorasinferioraswellastoa
senseofuniqueness:thebeliefthatfewothershaveanythingincommonwithoneselfandthat
onecanonlybeunderstoodbyafeworveryspecialpeople.

Whenhavingtheabilitytoinfluencepeople,whenyoucanseetherootcauseoftheirchoicesandthe
causeandeffectsysteminplacethathasledthemtotheprincipalsandidealsthattheyholddear,
knowingthatyoucanchangethissimplybecauseyouwantto.itcanclearlyleadtoafalsesenseof
superiority.Nomatterhowsmartsomeoneis,theycanfallvictimtovariouscognitivebiasessimply
becausetheyareunawareofthem.Whenyouseesmartandintelligentpeople,peopleyourespectbe
aseasilyinfluencedbyobviousploysinthemediaormarketing,asnormalaveragepeopleitcanbehard
nottoloseamodicumofrespectforthesepeople.Whentheseobviousploysarebeneathyourown
levelofskill,andyouthinkhoweasilyyoucouldinfluenceyourfriendsandfamily,thosearoundyou,
youveryquicklyfeelsuperiortothosepeoplearoundyou.

Ihavebymyownchoice,decidedthatsocialengineeringpeoplewithin1degreeofseparationfromme,
isunethicalNevertheless,Ihavehadissuesinmylife,betweenfamilyandfriendsthatIcouldhave
easilysolvedwithsocialengineering,ThoughIbelievethatImayhavesolvedthatissueitself,Iwould
havelostrespectforthepeopleonthereceivingend.Itwouldlikelyhaveeitherequallyorgreatly
damagedtherelationshipsthathavebeenestablished.

Iwouldadvocatethatrulesandprincipalsforsocialengineersareimportanttomaintainperspective,as
intheshortterminanemotionalsituationtheeasiestsolutionmightseemthebest,buthaveasyetun
apparentlongtermeffects.
 Prideisaninwardlydirectedemotionthatcarriestwocommonmeanings.Withanegative
connotation,pridereferstoaninflatedsenseofone'spersonalstatusoraccomplishments,
oftenusedsynonymouslywithhubris.

Ifyoursocialengineeringresultsingreatfeats,eitherbyyourhandorthehandofsomeoneyouhave
tasked,itcanbeeasytotakeprideinyouraccomplishment.Itcanevenmotivateyoutobemore
productiveandactivesometimesyoucanlosesightofyouractionsandpursueonlythe
accomplishments.Themoreyouthinkofyourselfandthelessyouthinkofotherscanleadtosome
distortedunderstandingofwhatisethical.Manyofyou,myselfincludedhavequestionableethicsto
beginwith,wearenotalwaysboundtorulesandlawsbutmoresowhatwethinkisrightorwrong,
whichcanbefine,butifwhatwethinkchanges,sotoodoesourethicsandwhatweoncethoughtwas
wrongsuddenlybecomesOK.

Egotismisthedrivetomaintainandenhancefavourableviewsofoneself,andgenerally
featuresaninflatedopinionofone'spersonalfeaturesandimportance.Itoftenincludes
intellectual,physical,socialandotheroverestimations.

Eitherbymaintainingthosefavourableviewsbyactions,likepursuingsocialengineeringgoals,orby
socialengineeringtheviewsthemselvestoaltertheobserversperspective.Egotismissomethingwe
activelypracticebyintent;itcanbecomehabitualinnature.Youyourselfcanloseperspectivedo
somethingoftenenoughandyougetusedtoit,itbecomessecondnaturealmost.Itcanbenicetohave
othersthinkhighlyofussothehabitcanalmostbecomeanaddiction.Ifweoverestimateourselvesand
ourabilities,becomingconceiteditmayinandofitselfneuterourabilitiesandbecomeself
depreciating.

Iseethisalotinsocialengineering,peoplethinkingtheyaretoogoodoraboveeveryoneelseeven
othersocialengineers,oftenbettersocialengineers,becausethebestonesalwaysseeeverythingasan
opportunitytolearn,whileegotisticalsocialengineersthinknoonehasanythingtoteachthemandthey
knowmorethaneveryoneelse.

lackofempathy

Empathyisthecapacitytoshareorrecognizeemotionsexperiencedbyanothersentientorfictional
being.Onemayneedtohaveacertainamountofempathybeforebeingabletoexperienceaccurate
sympathyorcompassion.

Weneedtorecognizeemotionsinordertounderstandasituationandinterpretit,especiallyifwewant
tobenefitfromit.Itcanbehardtoempathizewithpeoplewhentheyarebeingasapparenttous,
emotionalorirrational.AlotofwhatIteachaboutcognitivebiasesinfactencouragesustoremain
emotionallyneutralandrational.

IrecentlyreferencedAppealtoemotioninsocialpsychologygamesandtheorypostandempathygapin
mycognitivebiasespart6post.InbothinstancesIadvocatedanemotionlessandrationalresponseand
perspective.
WhenIcareto,whichismoreoftenthannot,Irationalizeandreasoneverythingbymyself.Idothisto
avoidundesiredexternalinput.NearlyeverychoiceImakeisunderstoodtobethebestchoice,not
necessarilythebestchoiceforme,butratherthebestchoiceforeveryoneconcerned,thatIcareabout
inthecontextofthechoice.InessenceIplotgamestreesineverythingIdo.Askingquestionsabout
everytopiclike,doIcare,isitworthit,doIcaretoinvestthatmuchenergy,istheresultworththe
input....andsoon.

Ipersonallyfinditdifficulttoempathizewithotherpeoplewhenmakingachoice,becauseIthink
unequivocallythinkthatthechoiceIhavereasonedisthebestone,andIusuallyknowotherpeople
havenotgiventhechoiceasmuchthought.Itcanbeverydifficulttoempathizewithsomeonewhen
youthinktheyarebeingirrationalorunreasonable.SometimesIcanforgetthatmanychoicesdon't
matter,afterIhavedecidedthatitdoesmatterwhileplottingmygametree.SowhileIthinkpeopleare
beingirrational,unreasonableandemotional,Iambeingoverlyrational,stubbornandcold.

Machiavellianismischaracterizedbymanipulationandexploitationofothers;acynicaldisregardfor
morality,andafocusonselfinterestanddeception.

Psychologicalmanipulationisatypeofsocialinfluencethataimstochangetheperceptionor
behaviourofothersthroughunderhanded,deceptive,orevenabusivetactics.Byadvancingthe
interestsofthemanipulator,oftenatanother'sexpense,suchmethodscouldbeconsidered
exploitative,abusive,devious,anddeceptive.

Socialinfluenceisnotnecessarilynegative.Forexample,doctorscantrytopersuadepatientstochange
unhealthyhabits.Socialinfluenceisgenerallyperceivedtobeharmlesswhenitrespectstherightofthe
influencedtoacceptorrejectandisnotundulycoercive.Dependingonthecontextandmotivations,
socialinfluencemayconstituteunderhandedmanipulation.

Thisisprettyclear,IthinkweallknowwhywearehereandIdon'tneedtogointotomuchmoreabout
this.Theissuebecomesthat,whenourabilitytoreasonrightfromwrongbecomescompromised,when
wethinklessofothersandmoreofourselves,whenwethinkthatbecauseofthatwearemoreright
thanothers,andwethinkthatwehavemoreofarightthanothers,topower,wealthorauthoritywe
mightjustifyinourmindsactionswepreviouslydeemedunacceptable.

Exploitationistheuseofsomeoneorsomethinginanunjustorcruelmanner,orgenerallyasa
meanstoone'sends.Mostoften,thewordexploitationisusedtorefertoeconomic
exploitation;thatis,theactofusinganotherpersonasameanstoone'sprofit,particularlyusing
theirlabourwithoutofferingorprovidingthemfaircompensation.

Thoughitsoundsit,exploitationisn'tinherenttowhatwedo,wemightexploitbugsinthehuman
conditionbutwedon'tinherentlyexploitpeople.Oftenwhatwecandoishighlightamutuallybeneficial
perspectivethathasnotbeenpreviouslyapparenttoanindividual,ifitisnotasbeneficialasothernon
cooperativepossibilities,wemaybeabletosureupthebalanceinacompromisingofsomesort.

Equally,asIhavediscussedProxiesarepeopleentirelyunawarethattheyarepartofyourplotsor
schemes,oreventhatthereareplotsandschemesinplace.Thesepeoplearebeingunquestionably
exploited,evenifyourmachinationsaren'tdetrimentaltothemindividually,theyareessentially
workingforyou,unknowinglyandwithoutcompensation.

AcynicaldisregardforMorality

Moralityisthedifferentiationofintentions,decisions,andactionsbetweenthosethatare"good"(or
right)andthosethatare"bad"

AsIhaveexplainedalreadyinthisthread,aswethinklessofothersandmorehighlyofourselveswecan
disregardothersinterpretationofmoralityasnaive,foolishandchildish.Whenwethinkhighlyof
ourselves,eventhinkthatwearemorepowerfulandhaveauthorityoverotherssimplybecauseofour
abilitieswecandeemourselvesexcludedfromtherulesofmorality.NotunlikeSelflicensingasI
describedintheotherthreadonsocialpsychology,itstemsfromadeludedsenseofentitlement.

Selfinterestgenerallyreferstoafocusontheneedsordesires(interests)oftheself.

Thisagainstemsfromaninflatedsenseofselfworth,whichinturnprioritizespersonalgoalsanddesires
abovethatofpeoplearoundyou.Eitherfromasenseofentitlementorfromthenotionthatyoucando
betterbecauseyouunderstandthingsdifferently,ormaybeasimplesenseofthe"weakaremeatfor
thestrongtoeat"andyoutakewhatyoucanbecausenoonewillbelookingoutforyourinterests.Itry
toincludephilosophyofsomesortinwhatIteachhere,thereisnorightanswerthatIknowof,butin
myopinionlikeeverythingelseknowledgeisthebestdefense.

Deceptionbeguilement,deceit,bluff,mystificationandsubterfugeareactstopropagatebeliefs
ofthingsthatarenottrue,ornotthewholetruth(asinhalftruthsoromission).Deceptioncan
involvedissimulation,propaganda,andsleightofhand,aswellasdistraction,camouflage,or
concealment.Thereisalsoselfdeception,asinbadfaith.

Deceptionisamajorrelationaltransgressionthatoftenleadstofeelingsofbetrayalanddistrust
betweenrelationalpartners.Deceptionviolatesrelationalrulesandisconsideredtobeanegative
violationofexpectations.Mostpeopleexpectfriends,relationalpartners,andevenstrangerstobe
truthfulmostofthetime.Ifpeopleexpectedmostconversationstobeuntruthful,talkingand
communicatingwithotherswouldrequiredistractionandmisdirectiontoacquirereliableinformation.A
significantamountofdeceptionoccursbetweenromanticandrelationalpartners.

Againlikemanythingsinthisthread,thisissomethingweintentionallypracticeweseekitoutand
knowledgeassociatedwithit,withthefullintentionofusingit.Wepracticeitregularly,regularly
enoughtomakeahabitoutofit.Thehabitformingnatureofsocialengineeringwithmanyofthese
negativecharacteristicsisexactlywhyweneedtobewearyandwhyfallingintotheDarkTriadcanbeso
veryeasyandsoverydangerous.Itcanbecomeaninescapableselfperpetuatingtrapfromwhichyou
mayneverrecover.

Psychopathyischaracterizedbyenduringantisocialbehavior,impulsivity,selfishness,callousness,and
remorselessness.

Antisocialbehaviourareactionsthatharmorlackconsiderationforthewellbeingofothers.
Antisocialbehaviourislabelledassuchwhenitisdeemedcontrarytoprevailingnormsfor
socialconduct.

Yourveryreadingofthispostmeansyoualreadyquestionthenormsofsocialconduct,alotofwhichis
socialhabithandeddownfromgenerationtogeneration.Wequestionit,thewhatandwhy'sofit,how
itworksandwhatcanwegainfromit.Oftenthestudyofwhichleadsustounderstandandperceivethe
irrationalandunquestionednatureofsomesocialrules.TraditionIbelieveisawordthatsumsmuchof
itup.

Workingagainstthesocialnormsiscommoninwhatwedo;Trytoexplainsocialengineeringtoan
averageperson,evenfriendorfamilyandyouwillbemetwithinherentdistrust.

Itismybeliefthatcontradictingsocialnormsisn'tinherentlybadandshouldn'tbedeemedantisocial,
butmypersonalbeliefthatsocialnormsshouldbequestionedcouldbeitselfasignthatevenIhave
fallenvictimtothedarktriad?

Impulsivityisamultifactorialconstructthatinvolvesatendencytoactonawhim,displaying
behaviourcharacterizedbylittleornoforethought,reflection,orconsiderationofthe
consequences.Impulsiveactionsaretypically"poorlyconceived,prematurelyexpressed,unduly
risky,orinappropriatetothesituationthatoftenresultsinundesirableconsequences,"which
imperillongtermgoalsandstrategiesforsuccess.

Thisisoursavinggrace,IthinkitstheonlythingImentionedsofar,thatisnotonlynotinherentto
socialengineering,butverymuchopposedtoit.Weshouldallendeavortoactwithforethought,
reflection,considerationofconsequencesanddenyimpulsiveactionsentirely.

Selfishnessisbeingconcerned,sometimesexcessivelyorexclusively,foroneselforone'sown
advantage,pleasure,orwelfare,regardlessofothers.

Pride,egotism,morality,selfinterestIhavegoneoverthisenough.

remorselessness

Remorseisanemotionalexpressionofpersonalregretfeltbyapersonaftertheyhavecommittedan
actwhichtheydeemtobeshameful,hurtful,orviolent.Remorseiscloselyalliedtoguiltandself
directedresentment.Whenapersonregretsanearlieractionorfailuretoact,itmaybebecauseof
remorseorinresponsetovariousotherconsequences,includingbeingpunishedfortheactoromission.

Apersonwhoisincapableoffeelingremorseisoftenlabelledwithantisocialpersonalitydisorder.In
general,apersonneedstobeunabletofeelfear,aswellasremorse,inordertodeveloppsychopathic
traits.

Forereffect
Theobservationthatindividualswillgivehighaccuracyratingstodescriptionsoftheirpersonalitythat
supposedlyistailoredspecificallyforthem,butareinfactvagueandgeneralenoughtoapplytoawide
rangeofpeople.Thiseffectcanprovideapartialexplanationforthewidespreadacceptanceofsome
beliefsandpractices,suchasastrology,fortunetelling,graphology,andsometypesofpersonalitytests.

Weseethisalotwiththoseshowsabout"mediums"whotalktothedead,theythrowoutvague
statementsandwaitforsomeonepickupinterestinthemoftenthepersonwillrevealenoughthatit
willleadtomorevaguestatementswhichcancreateaanswerleadconversationduetobiasesand
participantinformation.

Isometimeshaveabitoffunwiththisondates,asitsfairlysimpletoplotavaguegametreeformost
peopleandassesstheirlifechoicesbasedonveryfewdetails.ForinstanceI'minmylatetwentiesifI
meetawomanorguyofthesameagethereis3possibilities.

1. Theyhaveneverdated(Ihaveneveractuallycomeacrossthisbutitispossiblesowemust
accountforit.

2. Theyhavehadmultipleshortrelationships(notthemostcommon,andmaybesymptomaticof
commitmentissues)

3. Theyhavehadatleast1longtermrelationship

AsIsaidIhavenevercomeacrossoption1,andIhaven'tactuallycomeacrossthe2ndeitherthismaybe
areflectionofmytastesbutthat'sbranchofthisgametreewedon'tneedtoexplorerightnow.Iwish
toexplainanexamplesoI'llstickwithwhatIknow.Of3thereareagainafewoptions.

1. Thelongtermrelationshipwasendedbythem.

2. Thelongtermrelationshipwasendedbytheirpartner.

3. Itwasmutual.

4. Itsnotinfactended.

4areveryunlikelyandIhavenevercomeacrossit,butagainweaccountforit,3isequallyrare.Since
thepersoninquestionwillobviouslybeinherentlybias,ifnotjustforthesakeofselfpreservation,we
can'treallytrusttheiropinionaboutwhoendedwhatandforwhatreasons,Sowithoutthrowingout
vaguestatisticsitcanbereasonabletoassumethatamaleorfemaleintheirearly30'slatetwentieswas
inalongtermrelationshipatsomepointanditwasendedbyoneofthepartners.Knowingpeopleget
comfortableandaccountingfortheAmbiguityeffectwhereaspeoplearelesslikelytotakeachoice
withanunknownoutcome,eveniftheknownoutcomeisunpleasant,itcantakealotofmotivation,
incongruity,disparityandagenerallyunpleasantrelationshipbeforepeopleseparate.Usuallythereisan
eventthatsomewouldcall"thelaststraw"thattheyeitherdidorhaddonetotheminsaidlongterm
relationship.Obviouslyforanyonetothinkjustbecausethisismorelikelyitisdefinitewoulditselfbea
regressivebias,howeverduringacasualconversationwithsomeoneyoucangleanenoughinformation
toconfirmyourassumption.

Sosayingsomethinglike"Youwereinalongtermrelationshipright?Anditendedbadlyright?"Then
thankstotheBiasblindspot,ChoicesupportivebiasandtheConfirmationbiasyoucansympathizewith
theirsideofthingsastheywillbeveryunlikelytoeitherpaintthemselvesopenlyasthevillainofthe
relationshiporeveninthewrongatall.

AsIsaidmanytimesIdon'tadvocate/r/redpillphilosophybutasabitofcasualfun,almostlikeamagic
tricktoopenconversationIthinkitsacceptablenormallyafterwehavetalkedforawhileI'llexplain
whatIdidandhowitworkedanditoftenstirsintrigue.HoweveritsclearhowGameTheory,gametree
andaunderstandingofcognitivebiasescanhaveyouwalkuptoatotalstranger,Getageneralreadon
themandreasonablyquicklybeinvolvedinsomeindepthseriousconversation.Aswecontinueandas
manyofyou,thereaderspersonallygetbetteratgametreeandunderstandcognitivebiasesyouwill
seeandunderstandhowanyonecametobeintheircurrentsituationandwhy,understandwhatdrives
andmotivatesthemandwhyandbeabletopandertothatforwhateverreason,wewillgettothatin
time.

FramingEffect
Theframingeffectisanexampleofcognitivebias,inwhichpeoplereacttoaparticularchoicein
differentwaysdependingonwhetheritispresentedasalossorasagain.Peopletendtoavoidrisk
whenanegativeframeispresentedbutseekriskswhenapositiveframeispresented.Gainandlossare
definedinthescenarioasdescriptionsofoutcomes.

Thisisprettysimpleandhasbeencoveredinpartinotherposts.Wouldyourather"70%fatfree"or
"only30%fat"

Thiscanalsobealotoffunwithstatistics;whatifItoldyoutheNSAPRISIMwas99.999%accuratein
findingterrorists?Thatsoundsprettydamnaccurateright;Icantellyourightnowascientificpaperthat
provedresultsto99.99%truewouldbeheldtogreatskepticismbecauseevenalabenvironmentand
labresultswouldhaveagreatermarginoferror.Irememberin2001~wedidsomecalibrationtestsso
wemeasuredawelldocumentedconstant"gravity"whichisknowntobe9.80665m/s2andwedidn't
evengetthattoa99%certainty.
SowhenIsay99.999%that'sprettygoodright,only1inevery100,000terroristswillgetbyright?

WellwhatifIexplaineditthisway,99.999%accurateso1inevery100,000nonterroristAmericanswill
befalselyaccused.ThecurrentAmericanpopulationis319,258,000~thatmeans3,192~Americanswho
areinnocentandstandnothreattotheUSAwouldbefalselyimprisonedduetotheNSA.Doesn'tsound
soniceanymoredoit?

FrequencyIllusion
Theillusioninwhichaword,anameorotherthingthathasrecentlycometoone'sattentionsuddenly
seemstoappearwithimprobablefrequencyshortlyafterwards.Hearalotofpeoplebeginning
sentenceswith"welp"or"right?"lately,isitbotheringyou?Willitnow....?Maybe.

ThisistiedtotheTHEBAADERMEINHOFPHENOMENONwhichiswhenyoulearnsomethingneworit
comestoyourattentionyouthenbegintonoticeitorrecognizeiteverywhere.Maybeevensomeof
whatyoulearnedherehaschangedhowyouviewtheworldaroundoreventhepeoplearoundyou.

IfyouaretiedorrelatedtothisnewinformationyoucantakeadvantageoftheAttentional
bias,AvailabilityheuristicandAvailabilitycascadetosolidifyyourpositioninsomeonesthought
processes.

FunctionalFixedness
Limitsapersontousinganobjectonlyinthewayitistraditionallyused.Ifyouevergrewupusingpipe
cleanersforartsandcraftsonlytofindouttheyareactuallyusedtocleanpipesandhaveyourmind
blown,thisisyourighthere.ThisisonlyreallyusefulinconjunctionwiththeFrequencyillusioninthatif
youshowsomeoneanalternateuseforaneverydayitemortheintendeduseforanitemthatisusually
usedforanunintendedpurpose.Butinandofitselfitreallydoesn'thaveauseinSocial
Engineering...ThatIcanseeanyway.

HardeasyEffect
Thehardeasyeffectisacognitivebiasthatoccurswhen,basedonaspecificlevelofdifficultyofagiven
task;subjectivejudgmentsdonotaccuratelyreflectthetruedifficultyofthattask.Thismanifestsasa
tendencytooverestimatetheprobabilityofsuccessindifficulttasks,andtounderestimatethe
probabilityofsuccessineasytasks.

Anexperimentalgroupwasgivenaquestionnaire.Itconsistedoftwoalternativegeneralknowledge
questions.Suchas"Whowasbornfirst,AristotleorBuddha?"or"Wasthezipperinventedbeforeor
after1920?Thesubjectsfilledintheanswerstheybelievedtobecorrectandratedhowsuretheywere
ofthem.Theresultshowsthatsubjectstendstobeunderconfidentwhenitcomestoquestions
designatedbytheexperimenterstobeeasy,andoverconfidentwhenitcomestoquestionsdesignated
bytheexperimenterstobehard.

Itsthatselfdoubtwhenyouthinksomethingistooeasyanditmustthereforebeatrickofsomesort
whereassomethingmoredifficultisperceivedtobelesslikelytobeatrickbecauseofthedifficultyof
thetaskinandofitself.

Thiscanbeusedtoeitherassistinencouragingsomeonetodosomethingdifficultordoubtthemselves
whendoingsomethingeasy.

Hindsightbias
Hindsightbias,alsoknownastheknewitallalongeffectorcreepingdeterminism,istheinclination,
afteraneventhasoccurred,toseetheeventashavingbeenpredictable,despitetheirhavingbeenlittle
ornoobjectivebasisforpredictingit,priortoitsoccurrence.Itisamultifacetedphenomenonthatcan
affectdifferentstagesofdesigns,processes,contexts,andsituations.

Sometimesthisisabias,sometimesitsafterthefactsavingoffacepeopleovertlylyingtocovertheir
tracksandseemcompetent.itcanbeveryeasilyapparentwhatkindofpersonyouaredealingwithand
makingfalserationalizationsorfalsepredictionsandhavethemaccept,accountandassimilateyour
intentionsoutofafalsesenseofpridecanbeveryuseful.Asfortheactualbiasitselfitcanbeexploited
muchthesametakingadvantageofChoicesupportivebiasandtheConfirmationbias.

Hostilemediaeffect
Thehostilemediaeffectoriginallydeemedthehostilemediaphenomenonandsometimescalledhostile
mediaperception,isaperceptualtheoryofmasscommunicationthatreferstothefindingthatpeople
withstrongbiasestowardanissue(partisans)perceivemediacoverageasbiasedagainsttheiropinions,
regardlessofthereality.Proponentsofthehostilemediaeffectarguethatthisfindingcannotbe
attributedtothepresenceofbiasinthenewsreports,sincepartisansfromopposingsidesofanissue
perceivethesamecoveragedifferently.

ThisisconnectedtotheArgumentfromfallacywhichstatesthatanalyzinganargumentandinferring
that,sinceitcontainsafallacy,itsconclusionmustbefalse.ItisalsoconnectedtotheFramingeffect,
Focusingeffect,beliefrevision,Backfireeffect,andChoicesupportivebiasandConfirmationbiasand
alsosomerelatedtoAdhominemlogicalfallacy.Itscauseiscloselyrelatedtocognitivedissonance
wherebyifsomeonefindssomethingthatcontradictssomethingtheyknowtheyfindtroubleaccepting
thenewinformation.Thustheyhavetoeithercreateareasontorefusethenewknowledgeorchange
theirbeliefs.Thiscanmakepeopleveryuncomfortableandtheywouldratherdiscreditthesourceof
informationandignoreitthenacceptit.
Thiscanbeusedeitheraggressivelyordefensively;youcanpointoutitsgoingonwithsomeoneifyou
wantthemtoacceptthenewinformationpresentedevenfallaciousinformation.Underminesomeone's
argumentintentionallythisitselfwouldbeadhominemandanargumentfromfallacyasyouwould
statethattheirpointofviewisonlyexistingbecauseoftheinitialhostilemediaeffect,andbyproxy
theyarebeingbiasandunreasonableandiftheyarewrongthattheotherviewpointmustbecorrect.

Converselyyoucouldplaceanadhominemattackonthesourceofinformation,todiscredititand
refusetoacceptthepointsconveyedandsuggestthatanyonewhodoesisillinformed."Foxnewsis
rightwing,ifyouagreewiththemyoumustberightwing,"Thedailymailisashittynewspaperthat
nevercitesitssourcesdon'tbelieveeverythingtheysay,unlessyouareafool"

Forinstance,2friendsofequalsocialstanding,youknowthemequallyaslong.Onemaleandone
female.Thefemaleinformsyouthemalehasrapedher,younotknowingifthisistrueornot,only
having1personswordtogoon,maynotbelieveher.Howeverwhenthemaledeniesit,youarenow
incapableofseparatingyournewknowledgefromyourperceptionofhimthusloweringhissocial
standing,andloweringtheweightofhiswords.Despitehislackofapparentguiltinasituationofone
personswordagainstanother,iftheywereoriginallyonequalfooting,thepersonwhospeaksfirstwill
havetheupperhand.Ifhoweverhepreemptedthesituationeitherhonestlyordisingenuouslyandtold
youfirstshehadstolenfromhim,orsomethingelsethatmaydamagehercharacterandsocialstanding
asperyourperception.Herrapeclaimandhissubsequentdenialmightbeperceiveddifferently,itcould
berationalizedinyourheadashertryingtoretaliateandescaperesponsibility.Yetoverthecourseof
theseeventsnoevidencehasbeenpresentedfromeitherpartyithasremainedonepersonsword
againstanother.

Wecanseethisofteninsayahighprofilecourtcase,wherethepublichasdecidedthatsomeoneis
guiltywithoutknowingtheevidenceofthecase,andoftenbeingobservablyupsetwhentheyoutcome
theyhavedecided,basedonnoinformationorincorrectinformationdoesn'tcome.OJSimpsonisstill
todayseenbymanyasamurdererwhoescapedjustice;Hewasaprominentactorbeforehiscasein
1994buthasn'texactlybeenbackintothepubliceyeforanythingpositiveinnearly20years.People
thoughthewasguilty,hewasfoundinnocent,andthusthesourceoftheinformationmustbewrong.
Thecourtitself."IftheresultcontradictswhatIthinkIknow,thenthesourceitselfmustbewrong".I
useOJSimpsonasthereismanysimilarmoretopicalandpoliticallyweightedinstances,butthenature
ofthoseinstancesthemselvesholdaninescapablebias.IfeeltheobjectivenatureofthepointIam
tryingtomakeMightbelostifImadesuchareference.

HotHandFallacy
The"hothandfallacy"isthefallaciousbeliefthatapersonwhohasexperiencedsuccesswitharandom
eventhasagreaterchanceoffurthersuccessinadditionalattempts.Theconcepthasbeenappliedto
gamblingandsports,suchasbasketball.Whileaprevioussuccessataskillbasedathletictask,suchas
makingashotinbasketball,canchangethepsychologicalbehaviourandsubsequentsuccessrateofa
player,
ThisisrelatedtotheClusteringillusionandIhavecoveredthepsychologybehinditmorethanafew
times.Thegamblersfallacyanddiscussionsaboutitingamblingandstatistics.

Thiscanbeabusedbyeitherencouragingsomeonetocontinuetheirstreakmuchtotheirfolly,or
buildingafalsestreaktobeginwith.Coinflips,dicerolls,pokerandsoon,lettingsomeonewinand
convincethemtheyareonastreakbeforeproposingadealoranagreementandtheywillconvince
themselvesthatthisispartoftheirstreakandthatitiscontinuingandwillbeassociatedwithsomething
beneficial.

HyperbolicDiscounting
Discountingisthetendencyforpeopletohaveastrongerpreferenceformoreimmediatepayoffs
relativetolaterpayoffs.Hyperbolicdiscountingleadstochoicesthatareinconsistentovertimepeople
makechoicestodaythattheirfutureselveswouldprefernottohavemade,despiteusingthesame
reasoning.Alsoknownascurrentmomentbias,presentbias,andrelatedtoDynamicinconsistency

Wanttochangeyourlife...tomorrowandthentomorrowcomesandyouchangeyourmind?Wantto
loseweightbutyoucanstartafterNewYears?Stayinguptill4amplayinggamesorbingingonNetflix
butyouhastogetupearlytomorrow?Nowyouknowwhy...that'srightitsacognitivebias.

Itseasyenoughtoconvincesomeonetogiveupsomethingthathasalongtermbenefit,forsomething
thatisashorttermgain.ShitthereisathoughtterminatingClichforit"abirdinthehandisworth2in
thebush"asIsaidThoughtterminatingClichsaresomethingI'lllikelycoverinthepropaganda/social
psychologyseries.TheyaregenericClichdphrasesthateveryoneacceptstobetrueandgenerallyare
soplatonictheydon'tofferenoughsubstancetoevenbecontradictedsotheyarehardtoarguewith.In
shorttheypreventdiscussionandterminatethought.

IdentifiableVictimEffect
"Identifiablevictimeffect"referstothetendencyofindividualstooffergreateraidwhenaspecific,
identifiableperson("victim")isobservedunderhardship,ascomparedtoalarge,vaguelydefinedgroup
withthesameneed.Theeffectisalsoobservedwhensubjectsadministerpunishmentratherthan
reward.Participantsinastudyweremorelikelytometeoutpunishment,evenattheirownexpense,
whentheywerepunishingspecific,identifiableindividuals("perpetrators").

ThishasbeenalsocoveredextensivelyandisassociatedwithAttentionalbias,Availabilityheuristic,
AvailabilitycascadeandveryspecificallyrelatedtotheBaseratefallacy.

Thisisoftenusedbypoliticstopushselfdefeatinglawsonthepopulationaspeopleareoftenvery
willingtoincuranexpenseindefenseofthevictims.Overlyzealousinternetrestrictionsinpursuitofthe
perpetratorsofchildpornographyareperfectforinstance.
 IKEAEffect
Thetendencyforpeopletoplaceadisproportionatelyhighvalueonobjectsthattheypartially
assembledthemselves,suchasfurniturefromIKEA,regardlessofthequalityoftheendresult.

TheTruthisthatthisbiasextendsbeyondobjects,projects,ideas,companiesorevenstructures.Ribbon
cuttingceremonieseven,cangivesomeoneenoughofasenseofinvolvementorgivethemprideand
stakeinthesuccessofwhateversomethingmaybe.

Ifyouwereeveraskedtohelpsomeonefixtheircomputeronlytobeturnedaroundtolaterintimeto
beblamedforitsfaults.Youcanresolveanincidentlikethatbyhavingsomeonesolvetheissue
themselvesandshowingthemhow.Samewithfixingcarsoranysuchtasks,havingsomeone'spride
investedintheworkcanelevatetheperceptionofthequalityofthework.

Thiscanbehighlybeneficialatwork,evenifyouareaanindependentconsultantaskingsomeoneof
authoritytheiropinion,offeringthem2optionsevenifoneoptionistotalshitsotheywillchosewhat
youaregoingtooralreadyhavedone,caninvesttheirprideinyoursuccessandcreateasmallamongof
cognitivedissonanceifyouweretofail.

Vectormarketing,pyramidschemesandsuchexploitthiseffectaspeopletakeprideintheorganizations
successbecausetheyareinvolveddirectlyinit,initsrecruiting,buildingandexpansions.Iwouldalso
saykickstarterprojectsandearlylevelgameswherepeoplearealphaandbetatestingwouldalsobe
susceptible.

IllusionofControl
Theillusionofcontrolisthetendencyforpeopletooverestimatetheirabilitytocontrolevents;for
example,itoccurswhensomeonefeelsasenseofcontroloveroutcomesthattheydemonstrablydonot
influence.Itisthoughttoinfluencegamblingbehaviorandbeliefintheparanormal.Alongwithillusory
superiorityandoptimismbias,theillusionofcontrolisoneofthepositiveillusions.

Positiveillusionsareunrealisticallyfavorableattitudesthatpeoplehavetowardsthemselvesorto
peoplethatareclosetothem.Positiveillusionsareaformofselfdeceptionorselfenhancementthat
feelgood,maintainselfesteemorstaveoffdiscomfortatleastintheshortterm.

TheIllusionofcontrolcanbeassociatedwithconceitedpersonalities.Ifyounoticesomeonediscuss
eventsoranecdotesthattheywerenotinvolvedinorweremerelyinthepresenceofitwhenit
occurredas"we"ratherthannamingaspecificindividualinsomecasesthismaybenotintentionally
disingenuousbutanactualheldbelief.Nationalaccomplishments,personalpreferencesportteamsor
evenonlinecommunities,youmayhearsomeonereferringtowhenonesportsteambeatsanotheras
"wekickedasslastnight"orsomeonewhofrequents4chanbutnoaspecificraidassaying"yeah,we
totallyscrewedwiththatpoll"combinedwithChoicesupportivebiasandIllusorytrutheffectaftertime
eveniftheywereoriginallydisingenuoustheycancometobelievetheirversionofevents.

Attimes,peopleattempttogaincontrolbytransferringresponsibilitytomorecapableorluckier
otherstoactforthem.Byforfeitingdirectcontrol,itisperceivedtobeavalidwayofmaximizing
outcomes.Thisillusionofcontrolbyproxyisasignificanttheoreticalextensionofthetraditionalillusion
ofcontrolmodel.Ratherthancontestsomeoneforapositionofauthority,sayapromotionoran
electedpositionduetotheAmbiguityeffect,someonewhowantsthepositionmightnotgoforitand
insteadconvincethemselvesthattheyare"letting"someoneelsegoforitbecausetheywilleitherdo
betterorcarryouttheperson'sintentionsanywayandthepersoncanavoidresponsibilityandwork.

ThiscanbeexploitedmuchthesamewayastheIKEAeffect.Byfeedingintosomeonesillusionof
controlyoucanallowthemtogetcomplacentandsociallyandemotionallyinvestedintheoutcomeofa
project.Somuchsothattheymayeventakefullresponsibilityofitifandwhenitgoespearshaped.Due
tothemhavingrewrittentheirownperceptionofrealityandhistoryduetotheillusorytruththeywill
honestlybelieveandbefullyconvincedthatanypossiblemistakesoractionswereandaretheir
responsibility.

Thisisespeciallytrueofpeoplewithlargeegos,includingsocialengineerswhothemselveshaveastrong
senseofcontrolofthepeoplearoundthem.Ihaveseenafewamateursocialengineersandhackers
fullyacceptandbelievethattheyarewhollyresponsibleforaseriesofillegaleventswhentheywere
merelyascapegoat.Howeverafteracertainpointtheyhaveconvincedthemselvesthattheyarefully
responsibleandtryingtoremovethemfromthatpositioncanresultinthebackfireeffect.Whenmore
oftenthannotpolicewanttoclosecasesandeveryoneinvolvedisinagreement,thereisnotenough
interestinthetruthforitevertomakeittothelightofday.

I'llcoverthisagaininsocialpsychology.Butitsalwaysimportanttoknowthatmemoriesdon't
rememberincidents,butratherthelasttimeyourememberanincident.ThatmeansOpinions,cognitive
biasescanrewriteamemoryeachtimeitisrecalled,theeventsrewritten.Ifyoucontrolthecognitive
biases,useattentionalbiastobringupeventsoverandover,youcanrewritesomeone'smemories,
ThisiswhyImadeapostaboutthedarktriadbecausethesamecanhappentoyouanditwouldbe
negative.Memoriesandperceptionsofsucheffectsomeone'spersonalitysogivenenoughtime,you
canactuallychangesomeone'sentirepersonalityyoucanevenchangeyourownpersonality,
intentionallyforthepositive.

Afterexplainingalotaboutsocialengineeringtosomeone,afterIexplainedhowitispossibleto
indirectlyconvincesomeonetodosomethingthroughproxiesIhintedatbutavoidedspecifically
spellingitout,thatIwasresponsibleformakingthemdosomethingthattheydid,beforeImetthem,
simplyasaproofoftheory.Afteratime,aboutamonth,theybecamefullyacceptingthatIhadinfact
madethemdosomethingindirectly,withouttheirknowing.

Citationsregardingmystatementontheoperationofmemory...
 1. http://www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2012/09/yourmemoryislikethe
telephonegame.html

2. http://wwwpsych.stanford.edu/~ashas/Cognition%20Textbook/chapter5.pdf

IllusoryCorrelation
Illusorycorrelationisthephenomenonofperceivingarelationshipbetweenvariables(typicallypeople,
events,orbehaviors)evenwhennosuchrelationshipexists.Acommonexampleofthisphenomenon
wouldbewhenpeopleformfalseassociationsbetweenmembershipinastatisticalminoritygroupand
rare(typicallynegative)behaviorsasvariablesthatarenovelorsalienttendtocapturetheattention.
Thisisonewaystereotypesformandendure.Hamilton&Rosefoundthatstereotypescanleadpeople
toexpectcertaingroupsandtraitstofittogether,andthentooverestimatethefrequencywithwhich
thesecorrelationsactuallyoccur.

ThankstoAttentionalbias,AvailabilityheuristicandConfirmationbiasracismorevenjuststereotyping
canbeselfreinforcing.Theobvioustruthisthatcorrelationdoesnotdenotecausation.Thiscanbeused
bothaggressivelyanddefensivelywhetheryouwanttoconfirmsomeoneofanopinionordissuade
themfromit.

Theotherthingisthatthoughcorrelationdoesnotdenotecausation,itdoesn'tdisproveiteither.
Though,thephrase"correlationdoesnotdenotecausation"canbeusedasathoughtterminatingClich
whichissomethingIstillhavetogooverIthoughtI'dbringattentiontoit.AconverseThought
terminatingClichis"wellitstheexceptionthatprovestherule"...PersonallyIthinkthatphraseisa
fuckingjokeandmakesnosense,Ican'thelpbutfindithilarioushowmanypeoplejustacceptwhatis
beingsaidwhenitssaidbecauseofthatphrase.Ithinkforthemostpartthe"provestherule"partisan
acceptanceofsomeoneelseopinionsosomeseeitasacognitivecompromise.an"I'llacceptthisdefeat
hereandnowifyouacceptmyopiniononthewhole"itsaphrasethatactuallygotmetoaskabout
thoughtterminatingClichs,becauseitssocommon,sounquestionedandmakessolittlesense,yet
seemstobetakenfullyforgranted.

Likemanyofthesecognitivebiases,simplypointingthemoutcanunderminesomeone'spointofview
andyoucanthenaccusethemofbeingunreasonableandirrational.Equallyiftheneedsbeyoucan
encouragethemandallowthemtoflourishwithinsomeonesperspective.

Impactbias
Theimpactbias,aformofwhichisthedurabilitybias,inaffectiveforecasting,isthetendencyforpeople
tooverestimatethelengthortheintensityoffuturefeelingstates.

AmixofEmpathygapandtheAmbiguityeffect,whenpredictinghowanexperiencewillimpactus
emotionally,eventswhichhavenotbeenexperiencedareparticularlydifficult.Alsooftenwhenmaking
apredictionoftheimpactofaneventpeoplefocussolelyontheeventinquestion.Thisignoresthefact
thatwiththepassageoftime,othereventswilloccurthatinfluencehappiness.

Onitsownthisbiasisnotverysubstantialbutitcanbeusedinconjunctionwithothercognitivebiases
liketheIllusionofcontrol,Gambler'sfallacyortheambiguityeffect.Inthatpeoplewillbeunlikelyto
accuratelyunderstandtheemotionaleffectoftheresultoftheiractions.Inconjunctionwiththe
Hyperbolicdiscountingitcanbedangerousasitwillallowpeopletorationalizeaemotionallydangerous
satisfyingshorttermactionoverthelongtermimplications....likecheatingonapartner.Inthewrong
hands,itcouldbeexploitedtoencouragesuchanaction,thenexploitingtheambiguityeffectsomeone
couldthenbeexposedtoextortion.Suchasahoneypotscam

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clandestine_HUMINT_asset_recruiting#Love.2C_honeypots.2C_an
d_recruitment

Asperusebyespionageagencies.

InformationBias
Informationbiasisatypeofcognitivebias,andinvolvese.g.distortedevaluationofinformation.An
exampleofinformationbiasisbelievingthatthemoreinformationthatcanbeacquiredtomakea
decision,thebetter,evenifthatextrainformationisirrelevantforthedecision.

Weseethislotwithanecdotalevidencewhereapersonthinksquantityismoreimportantthanquality.
Aswellasencouraging,discouragingandmakingnoteandunderminingthisbiastowhateveryourends
mightbe.ThebiasitselfcanbeusedtobusyanddistractsomeonecitingthethoughtterminatingClich
"betterhaveitandnotneedit,thantoneeditandnothaveit"asanexcusetosanctionresults.

Converselyandevenusedinlegaldefense,wherebytheoppositiontogothroughhassubmitted
informationtoformcounterpointsinadvance,youcanpresentsomeonewithaneedleinahaystack,
haystackincluded.Ifanyonesuggeststhatsomeoneyoumightbeoverdoingit,youcancite"betterto
haveitandnotneedit,thanneeditandnothaveit.

InsensitivitytoSampleSize
Insensitivitytosamplesizeisacognitivebiasthatoccurswhenpeoplejudgetheprobabilityofobtaining
asamplestatisticwithoutrespecttothesamplesize.Forexample,inonestudysubjectsassignedthe
sameprobabilitytothelikelihoodofobtainingameanheightofabovesixfeet[183cm]insamplesof
10,100,and1,000men.Inotherwords,variationismorelikelyinsmallersamples,butpeoplemaynot
expectthis.
Likemanycognitivebiaseswearecomingtounderstandtheycanbeusedtoframeinformationina
specificlightasanoffensivewaytochangesomeone'sperspectiveordefensivelytheycanbeusedto
highlightpotentialbiasesandagendasinsomeonesargumentandunderminetheirargumentand
themselvesequally.

Weseethisofteninmarketingandadvertisingyoumayoftenseeinsaya"makeup"advertisement
wherethesamplesizeisaunusualnonroundnumber.like"resultsfromtestingon93women"whynot
100?whynot75or50anotheroneis4/5dentistsapproveofXproductconsideringmanydentistsget
freesuppliesfromtoothbrushandtoothpastemanufacturersthenumbersarealreadyunderquestion,
sowhynotsomelargersamplesizeofdentistsI'dbemoreinclinedtobelieve40professionalsthan4.
Thisisallsymptomaticoftheframingeffect.here
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)becauseofbracketsintheURLIcan't
embedit.

IrrationalEscalation
Thetermsunkcostfallacyhasbeenusedtodescribethephenomenonwherepeoplejustifyincreased
investmentinadecision,basedonthecumulativepriorinvestment,despitenewevidencesuggesting
thatthecost,startingtoday,ofcontinuingthedecisionoutweighstheexpectedbenefit.Such
investmentmayincludemoney,time,oreveninthecaseofmilitarystrategyhumanlives.The
phenomenonandthesentimentunderlyingitarereflectedinsuchproverbialimagesas"Throwinggood
moneyafterbad","Inforadime,inforadollar",or"Inforapenny,inforapound".

Ihavedescribedthisafewtimeswhendiscussingthesunkcostfallacyinrelationtogambling,Ialso
describeditduringmydiscussionofthe"stonesoupgambit"wherebyyougetsomeonetocommit
slightamountsofeithertime,moneyorenergytoaprojectanddripfeedthemresultsuntiltheyare
committedtotheprojectsoverallsuccess.Ithasbeendiscussedindepthsowewillmoveon.

LessisBetterEffect
Thelessisbettereffectisatypeofpreferencereversalthatoccurswhenthelesserorsmaller
alternativeofapropositionispreferredwhenevaluatedseparately,butnotevaluatedtogether.
AnotherparadigmthatincorporatesthiseffectisOccam'srazor,whichisreferredtoassimplifyinga
situationasmuchaspossibletoavoidconfusionandannoyance.

sevenouncesoficecreamoverflowinginasmallcupwaspreferredovereightouncesofice
creaminamuchlargercup

adinnerwaresetwith24intactpieceswaspreferredoveradinnerwaresetof31pieceswitha
fewbrokenpieces

asmallerdictionarywaspreferredoveralargerdictionarywithatorncover
 Participantsperceivedpeoplegivingawaya$45scarfasmoregenerousthanthosewhogavea
cheap$55coat.

Thisisaproductofthecontrasteffect(enhancementordiminishment,relativetonormal,ofperception,
cognitionorrelatedperformanceasaresultofsuccessive(immediatelyprevious)orsimultaneous
exposuretoastimulusoflesserorgreatervalueinthesamedimension.)andtheframingeffectas
linkedabove.Itcanbeusedtoalterpeoplesdecisionmakingabilityineitherdirectiondependingon
thesocialengineerschoiceatthetime,theflexibilityprovidingalternativepotentialsandisvery
accommodatingforXanatosSpeedChessaderivativeofthexanatosgambit.

XanatosSpeedChess
WhiletheXanatosGambitstipulatesthatoneshouldplanandprepareforeverypossiblesignificant
outcomeinaseriesofevents,encouragingtheplanninganduseofgametrees.XanatosSpeedChessis
orientatedtowardsconstanttweakingandmaintenanceofone'splans,personallyIprefertheXanatos
gambititselfbecauseifsetrightitrequireslessworkandIcandedicatemytimeandenergytoother
objectives.XanatosSpeedChessspeedchessisperfectfornewerSocialengineersorwhendealingwith
anadeptopponentbyproxy.

"ThisishowVetinarithinks.[...]Planscanbreakdown.Youcannotplanthefuture.Onlypresumptuous
foolsplan.Thewisemansteers."~CosmoLavish,MakingMoney

ThemainthinginvolvedwithXanatosSpeedChessistheneedforfullknowledgeofallaffectingfactors
aswellastheattentionandconsistencyforregularconstantinput,Practiceatthis,understandingand
learningoftheinvolvedfactors,becomingaccustomtotheverynatureofmanipulatingsocialdynamics
willteachandtrainyoutobeabletopracticeitinyourhead.Preparingyoutoeventuallybeabletoplot
asuccessfulXanatosGambitasdetailedhereinGamesandTheory:HighConceptGambitsPart1.

MereExposureEffect
Themereexposureeffectisapsychologicalphenomenonbywhichpeopletendtodevelopapreference
forthingsmerelybecausetheyarefamiliarwiththem.Insocialpsychology,thiseffectissometimes
calledthefamiliarityprinciple.Theeffecthasbeendemonstratedwithmanykindsofthings,including
words,Chinesecharacters,andpaintings,picturesoffaces,geometricfigures,andsounds.Instudiesof
interpersonalattraction,themoreoftenapersonisseenbysomeone,themorepleasingandlikeable
thatpersonappearstobe.

Thisiseffectedbytheusualsuspects,Ambiguityeffect,Attentionalbias,Availability
heuristicandAvailabilitycascadebutifitbecomesaffectedbytheBackfireeffectitcanhavethe
opposingeffect.Thisaffectsfavoritismandtrustalot.Reddititselfisaperfectexampleofthis,therise
andfallofmemesandsubsastheygainpopularitythencounterculturewhichdislikethosegains
popularityinitsplaceandthememebecomesasourceofdisdain.
IfweweretoexploittheArgumentfromauthorityfallacyinconjunctionwiththis,inthatsayacompany
fromapositionofauthorityandrespectlikeGoogle,weretoadvertisesomefictionalperson,productor
companytheywouldgainreputationinapersonsmindbyproxyoftheirtrustforGoogle.Thiscanbe
donewithhighlytargetedGoogleads:(http://mysocialsherpa.com/theultimateretaliationpranking
myroommatewithtargetedfacebookads/)andsuddenlyinthemindofyourtarget,yourfictional
companyhasthesocialstandingandreputationrequiredtobeconsideredforacooperativeventure.

IonceusedasimilarmethodtobombardtheVPofatechnologycompanyIwashiredtopentest.This
companywasamilitarycontractorandworkedonDARPAprojectsasyoumightimaginethehighest
security.YetbyconvincingtheVPIwastheCEOofareputablecompanywishingtodesignsoftwarefor
theirproduct,theyreleasedtome,withoutmeetingmeoranyfinancialexchangesomeprototype
hardware,oneofonlyahandfulofmodelstheyhadinexistence.Obviouslytherearemoredetailsin
whichIhadtoaccountforthevariousformsofvettingthatIamboundbyNonDisclosureAgreementto
notgointo.HoweverwhatIamtryingtoinferandhavebeenforawhileis,withsocialengineeringyou
cangetanything,eventhingsmoneycannotgetyou.

MoneyIllusion
Ineconomics,moneyillusion,orpriceillusion,referstothetendencyofpeopletothinkofcurrencyin
nominal,ratherthanreal,terms.Inotherwords,thenumerical/facevalue(nominalvalue)ofmoneyis
mistakenforitspurchasingpower(realvalue)atapreviouspointinthegeneralpricelevel(inthepast).
Thisisfalse;asmodernfiatcurrencieshavenointrinsicvalueandtheirrealvalueisderivedfromallthe
underlyingvaluesystemsinaneconomy,e.g.,soundgovernment,soundeconomics,soundeducation,
soundlegalsystem,sounddefense,etc.Thechangeinthisrealvalueovertimeisindicatedbythe
changeintheConsumerPriceIndexovertime.

Pricestickiness.Moneyillusionhasbeenproposedasonereasonwhynominalpricesareslowtochange
evenwhereinflationhascausedrealpricesorcoststorise.

Youmayinyourlifeborewitnessto,orhaveyourselftocomplainabouttherisingcostsofcommon
goodslikethepriceofacanofcokeforinstance.Peopleoftencomplainabouttherisingcostsbutrarely
considerthemequatedtotheirrisingwagesoverthesametime.

Thisbiasisasignificantcauseofthe"goodol'days"delusion.

"Theconceptofthe'goodol'days'mustbeoneofoursociety'sbiggestdelusions,topreasonsfor
depression,aswellasmostoftenusedexcuseforlackofsuccess."~BoBennett

ThiscanobviouslybeusedinconjunctionwiththeFramingeffecttoeitherframethepastasbetteror
worsebycherrypickingthepasttenseinformationandportrayingitinapreferentialformat.

MoralCredential
Themoralcredentialeffectisabiasthatoccurswhenaperson'strackrecordasagoodegalitarian
establishesinthemanunconsciousethicalcertification,endorsement,orlicensethatincreasesthe
likelihoodoflessegalitariandecisionslater.Thiseffectoccursevenwhentheaudienceormoralpeer
groupisunawareoftheaffectedperson'spreviouslyestablishedmoralcredential.Forexample,
individualswhohadtheopportunitytorecruitawomanorAfricanAmericaninonesettingweremore
likelytosaylater,inadifferentsetting,thatajobwouldbebettersuitedforamanoraCaucasian.
Similareffectsalsoappeartooccurwhenapersonobservesanotherpersonfromagrouptheyidentify
withmakinganegalitariandecision

ThisisattachedtoSelfLicensingwhichisatermusedinsocialpsychologyandmarketingtodescribethe
subconsciousphenomenonwherebyincreasedconfidenceandsecurityinonesselfimageorself
conceptionstomakethatindividualworrylessabouttheconsequencesofsubsequentimmoral
behaviorand,therefore,morelikelytomakeimmoralchoicesandactimmorally.

Ihavealreadydiscussedselflicensingatlength,inshortitcanallbeusedtointentionallybend
someone'sethicsbyremindingthemofgoodthingsthattheyhavedone,orsimplybysayingtheyarea
goodperson."comeonman,haveadrinkyouhaven'ttouchedthestuffinyears,youcanhaveonecan't
you?"whateverthenatureofthisagendaisbeitsabotageofthepersonthemselvesoranattemptto
getsomeonetocommitanactyouyourselfwouldratherbeinsulatedandunaccountablefor,orevento
getsomeonetodosomethingtheymayfeelshameoraccountabilityforandyoucanthen"keep"that
secretandbyproxybuildtrustwiththatperson.Thereareplentyofreasonsthatonecanbenefitfrom
bybendingsomeone'smoralcompassandflexingtheirethics.

Negativityeffect
Inpsychology,thenegativityeffectisthetendencyofpeople,whenevaluatingthecausesofthe
behaviorsofapersontheydislike,toattributetheirpositivebehaviorstotheenvironmentandtheir
negativebehaviorstotheperson'sinherentnature.Thenegativityeffectistheinverseofthepositivity
effect,whichisfoundwhenpeopleevaluatethecausesofthebehaviorsofapersontheylike.Both
effectsareattributionalbiases.Thenegativityeffectplaysaroleinproducingthefundamental
attributionerror,amajorcontributortoprejudice.

Ihadtheunfortunateopportunitytobeinvolvedinthisrecently.Socialengineeringtotheuninformed
soundslikescammingandwarrantexploitationand/r/redpillsentimentalityandforthemostpartinthe
internetatlargeitis,sadly.SowhenIgot/r/bestof'edandwenttoanswerquestions.Peoplealready
hadanegativeOpinionofme,duringthistimeredditwasactingup,Iwaslinkingtoacommentusingit
asananswer,butforwhateverreasonthelinkwasn'tworkingandreturninganemptypost.Sodueto
theNegativityeffectpeopleassumedtheworst.

Hereisthethread,IuseaNPlinksopleasedon'tbandwagonorinterferewiththecontent.ifpeople
hereweretointerferewiththethreaditwouldthencontradictthepointIamtryingtomakeand
retroactivelyundermineme.AlsoIhatevotebreadingandbandwagoning.
 AttributionalBiases
Inpsychology,anattributionbiasorattributionalbiasisacognitivebiasthatreferstothesystematic
errorsmadewhenpeopleevaluateand/ortrytofindreasonsfortheirownandothers'behaviors.
Peopleconstantlymakeattributionsregardingthecauseoftheirownandothersbehaviors;however,
attributionsdonotalwaysaccuratelymirrorreality.Ratherthanoperatingasobjectiveperceivers,
peoplearepronetoperceptualerrorsthatleadtobiasedinterpretationsoftheirsocialworld.

ThebestwayIhavehearditputis"wejudgeothersbytheiractionsandourselvesbyourintent"
becauseofourintentwecanattributepositiveattentionalbiasestoouractionsbecauseweperceive
thattheintentbehindthemwasgood"Theendsjustifythemeans"wouldreflectthisthoughtprocess
howeverwithoutendssomemeanscanappearmalicious.Ifweviewsomemaliciousmeans,without
contextunknowingofthesepossibleends,wecanassumethattheintentbehindthemisinandofitself
malicious.Iwouldsaythisfaultinperceptioniscauseforalotofconflictandmisunderstandinginthe
world.

Thiscanbeexploitedbyalludingtoanendsinadvanceofthemeans,preemptingandcollaterallossof
socialcapitalthatmaycomefromtheact.AsIdiscussedwiththepertinentquestionandnonpertinent
question,damagedcharactercanundermineyourpositiontodefendyourselfwhetheryourgoalsare
honestordishonest.

Forinstance,IfIweretoStealthing"Z"fromPerson"A"andPerson"B"caughtme,mycharacterin
PersonB'seyeswouldbethatofathiefandthusmywordsinmyowndefensewouldbesomewhat
hollow.IfIwouldsteal,whywouldn'tIlie?Especiallyintheinstanceofselfpreservationoneofthe
strongestmotivessomeonecanhave.HoweverIfIsawperson"B"mightcatchmeStealingthing"Z"
fromPerson"A"andIweretopreemptthesituationbyinformingperson"B"ofmymeans,and
elaborateontheends"I'mplanningthisprank,wanttohelpbuttherestisasurprisesoyoucan'ttalk
aboutit"OrattackpersonPerson"A"'scharacterandsuggestthat"theystolefromme,andwon'tpay
mebacksoI'mjustgettingwhatIdeserve"Theymayhavemorereasontobelieveyouinthose
instancesasyouhavenotyetbeencaughtandyourcharacterremainsingoodstanding.Inthesecond
possibilitywhereyouattackperson"A"'scharacteryouareunderminingtheirpositioninadvancesoany
contradictionorevidencetheymayhavewillbetaintedbypotentialbiasandtheobviousmotiveof
"selfpreservation"

Thisnatureofsocialengineering,moves,countermoves,Preemptivemoves,usingsocialcapitalasa
resourceandpeopleasintermediaries.Sometimesfightingoversupportwithinagroup,usingproxies
andagentsindividualtacticsandanoverallstrategy...tryingtosteersocialandpublicopiniononever
increasingscalesisnothinglessthanwarfare.Everysentenceshouldbeconsideredafight,every
conversationabattleandanentiresocialdynamicawarfront.

Ialwaysfoundthisquotefitting...
 "consideringnowthewholehouseofwarinitsstructuralaspect,whichwasstrategy,inits
arrangements,whichweretactics,andinthesentimentofitsinhabitants,whichwaspsychology;for
mypersonaldutywascommand,andthecommander,likethemasterarchitect,wasresponsiblefor
all."~T.E.Lawrence

Thismetalevelofsocialengineering,thisabstractlayerofwhichIoccasionallyfrequentiswhere
groups,organizations,eventsandevensocietiesarecanbechanged.Thehigherupthesocialpyramid
yougoinabilityandmachinationsthemorelikelyyouaretorunintootheradeptsocialengineers
workingagainstyou,orsimplyinanotherdirectionfortheirownends.Youmaynoticeaspermy
explanationofXanatosSpeedChessandtheXanatosgambit,socialgroupsnotdoingasexpected.Not
respondingaspredictedwheneverythingyouknowaccuratelysuggeststhattheyshouldbedoingas
youhavedesigned.

Inmymind,Ialwaysimagineitlikeastillpond,Ithrowtherockin,causetheeffectandwaitforthe
ripplestocomeback,asexpected,Sometimesthoughtheydon't,theyareaffectedbysomethingelse,
somethingIdidn'taccountfor,usuallysomethingunseeninitselfbutitcanbeseenbyitseffectsonthe
ripples.ThisisthemetagameandwhyIusetermslikedefectiveandoffensive,whyIsharewhatIknow
becausethosewhoaren'tplayingarebeingplayed.

Youhavetobecomeadeptevenamasterat1on1andeven1ongroupsocialengineering,beAbelto
readthingsintuitivelyandnaturallywithoutthinking,reflexivelybeforeyoucanstarttoperceivethis
abstractlayerofpushandpullgoingaroundusineverythingwedo.Andthisiswhysomeofmymore
highconceptgambitsalmostdealwitheventsratherthanpeopleandarediscussedatanabstract
theoreticalalmoststrategiclevel.