0 0 0 0.00 0.00
-1 1 1 -14.29 14.29 8.00 8
4 4 16 33.33 33.33 7.33 8
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 9.00 9
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 9.67 10
1 1 1 8.33 8.33 11.00 11
-2 2 4 -20.00 20.00 11.00 11
3 3 9 21.43 21.43 11.00 11
8.00
7.50 7.75 7.25
-1 1 1 -14.29 14.29 7.50 7.50 7.50
4 4 16 33.33 33.33 9.50 8.50 10.50
1 1 1 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.25 11.75
1 1 1 9.09 9.09 10.50 10.75 10.25
1 1 1 8.33 8.33 11.50 11.00 12.00
-1 1 1 -10.00 10.00 11.00 11.25 10.75
3 3 9 21.43 21.43 12.00 11.50 12.50
12 16 46 82.90 131.47
0.00 9.10 10 6 6 36
9.17 10
9.24 10
9.31 10
9.37 10
9.44 10
9.50 10
9.57 10
9.63 10
9.70 10
9.76 10
9.82 10
9.88 10
65.61 120 13 23 79
g 0.01 double exponential s
0.05
Pe(%) |pe| S' S" a b m Ft+m Forecast
0.00 0.00 9 9
-28.57 28.57 8.900 8.995 8.805 -0.005
-12.50 12.50 8.855 8.988 8.722 -0.007 1 8.715 9
-28.57 28.57 8.762 8.977 8.548 -0.011 1 8.537 9
25.00 25.00 8.924 8.974 8.874 -0.003 1 8.872 9
10.00 10.00 8.978 8.974 8.982 0.000 1 8.982 9
18.18 18.18 9.079 8.980 9.179 0.005 1 9.184 10
16.67 16.67 9.225 8.992 9.458 0.012 1 9.471 10
0.00 0.00 9.264 9.005 9.522 0.014 1 9.536 10
28.57 28.57 9.501 9.030 9.971 0.025 1 9.996 10
13 19 61 79.508 161.650
Regresi Linear
b 0.70676692 a 6.30485304
X^2 d.t F=a+b(t) Forecast et |et| et^2
1 9 7.01 8 1 1 1
4 28 7.72 8 -1 1 1
9 72 8.43 9 -1 1 1
16 112 9.13 10 -3 3 9
25 300 9.84 10 2 2 4
36 360 10.55 11 -1 1 1
49 539 11.25 12 -1 1 1
64 768 11.96 12 0 0 0
81 810 12.67 13 -3 3 9
100 1400 13.37 14 0 0 0
6.25 6.25
-84.71 152.76
HASIL FORECASTING NOMOR 2
-3 3 9 -8.11 8.11
5 5 25 11.11 11.11
9 9 81 18.00 18.00 40.00 40
-1 1 1 -2.33 2.33 42.60 43
1 1 1 2.13 2.13 43.20 44
9 9 81 16.07 16.07 44.40 45
3 3 9 5.77 5.77 48.20 49
3 3 9 5.45 5.45 49.60 50
-1 1 1 -1.85 1.85 50.60 51
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
25 35 217 46.25 70.82 636
39.33
39.33 -
41.00 39.89
10 10 100 20.00 20.00 44.00 41.44
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 46.00 43.67
3 3 9 6.38 6.38 46.67 45.56
11 11 121 19.64 19.64 48.67 47.11
3 3 9 5.77 5.77 51.67 49.00
5 5 25 9.09 9.09 54.33 51.56
3 3 9 5.56 5.56 53.67 53.22
- - - - -
42.11 1.11 1 43.22 44 1 1 1 2.22
46.56 2.56 1 49.11 50 0 0 0 0.00
48.33 2.33 1 50.67 51 -8 8 64 -18.60
47.78 1.11 1 48.89 49 -2 2 4 -4.26
50.22 1.56 1 51.78 52 4 4 16 7.14
54.33 2.67 1 57.00 57 -5 5 25 -9.62
57.11 2.78 1 59.89 60 -5 5 25 -9.09
54.11 0.44 1 54.56 55 -1 1 1 -1.85
1 54.56 55
2 55.00 55
3 55.44 56
4 55.89 56
5 56.33 57
6 56.78 57
7 57.22 58
8 57.67 58
9 58.11 59
10 58.56 59
11 59.00 59
12 59.44 60
689 -16 26 136 -34.05
Double Moving Average
N=5
|pe| S' S" at bt m Ft+m Forecast et |et|
2.22 40
0.00 42.6
18.60 43.2
4.26 44.4 - - - - - -
7.14 48.2 43.68 52.72 4.52 1 57.24 58 -2 2
9.62 49.6 45.6 53.6 4 1 57.6 58 -6 6
9.09 50.6 47.2 54 3.4 1 57.4 58 -3 3
1.85 52.8 49.12 56.48 3.68 1 60.16 61 -7 7
1 60.16 61
2 63.84 64
3 67.52 68
4 71.2 72
5 74.88 75
6 78.56 79
7 82.24 83
8 85.92 86
9 89.6 90
10 93.28 94
11 96.96 97
12 100.64 101
52.78 970 -18 18
Single Exponential Smoothing 0.05
0.05
et^2 Pe(%) |pe| Ft+1 Forecast et |et|
37 37 0 0
37.00 37 3 3
37.15 38 3 3
37.34 38 -1 1
37.33 38 7 7
37.71 38 12 12
38.32 39 4 4
38.56 39 8 8
4 -3.57 3.57 38.98 39 17 17
36 -11.54 11.54 39.83 40 12 12
9 -5.45 5.45 40.44 41 14 14
49 -12.96 12.96 41.17 42 12 12
41.81 42
42.42 43
43.00 43
43.55 44
44.07 45
44.57 45
45.04 46
45.49 46
45.91 46
46.32 47
46.70 47
47.07 48
98 -33.53 33.53 542 91 93
le Exponential Smoothing 0.05 dou
0.01
et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S' S" a b
0 0.00 0.00 37.0000 37.0000
9 7.50 7.50 37.0300 37.0003 37.0597 0.0003
9 7.32 7.32 37.0697 37.0010 37.1384 0.0007
1 -2.70 2.70 37.0690 37.0017 37.1363 0.0007
49 15.56 15.56 37.1483 37.0031 37.2935 0.0015
144 24.00 24.00 37.2768 37.0059 37.5478 0.0027
16 9.30 9.30 37.3341 37.0092 37.6590 0.0033
64 17.02 17.02 37.4307 37.0134 37.8481 0.0042
289 30.36 30.36 37.6164 37.0194 38.2134 0.0060
144 23.08 23.08 37.7602 37.0268 38.4937 0.0074
196 25.45 25.45 37.9326 37.0359 38.8294 0.0091
144 22.22 22.22 38.0933 37.0464 39.1402 0.0106