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HASIL FORECASTING SOAL NOMOR 1

Nama : Raden Mirna Pertiwi


NPM : 0514204005
X Y
Bulan N=2
Periode Unit terjual
S' Forecast
1 Januari 9
2 Februari 7
3 Maret 8 8.00 8
4 April 7 7.50 8
5 Mei 12 7.50 8
6 Juni 10 9.50 10
7 Juli 11 11.00 11
8 Agustus 12 10.50 11
9 September 10 11.50 12
10 Oktober 14 11.00 11
11
12 Desember 16 12.00 12
13 Januari 15.00 15
14 Februari 15.00 15
15 Maret 15.00 15
16 April 15.00 15
17 Mei 15.00 15
18 Juni 15.00 15
19 Juli 15.00 15
20 Agustus 15.00 15
21 September 15.00 15
22 Oktober 15.00 15
23 November 15.00 15
24 Desember 15.00 15
Total 180

Single Moving Average


N=2 N=3
ME 1.00 1.50
SSE 2.42 2.56
Error Statistik
MSE 5.22 5.75
MASE 1.67 2.00
MPE 5.98 10.36
Error Relatif
MAPE 13.60 16.43
ECASTING SOAL NOMOR 1

Single Moving Average


N=2
et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S' Forecast

0 0 0 0.00 0.00
-1 1 1 -14.29 14.29 8.00 8
4 4 16 33.33 33.33 7.33 8
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 9.00 9
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 9.67 10
1 1 1 8.33 8.33 11.00 11
-2 2 4 -20.00 20.00 11.00 11
3 3 9 21.43 21.43 11.00 11

4 4 16 25.00 25.00 12.00 12


13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
13.33 14
9 15 47 53.81 122.38 168

Double Moving Average Single exponential smoothing Double exponential smoothing


N=2 N=3 =0.01 =0.05
-0.56 -0.71 1.30 1.44
1.54 1.58 2.96 2.76
2.11 2.14 7.90 6.78
1.22 1.00 2.30 2.11
-5.15 -6.99 6.63 8.83
11.54 9.37 20.56 17.96
N=3
et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S' S" at

8.00
7.50 7.75 7.25
-1 1 1 -14.29 14.29 7.50 7.50 7.50
4 4 16 33.33 33.33 9.50 8.50 10.50
1 1 1 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.25 11.75
1 1 1 9.09 9.09 10.50 10.75 10.25
1 1 1 8.33 8.33 11.50 11.00 12.00
-1 1 1 -10.00 10.00 11.00 11.25 10.75
3 3 9 21.43 21.43 12.00 11.50 12.50

4 4 16 25.00 25.00 15.00 13.50 16.50

12 16 46 82.90 131.47

uble exponential smoothing


Regresi Linear Error Minimum
=0.05
1.44 -0.55 -0.71
2.76 1.67 1.54
6.78 2.55 2.11
2.11 1.27 1.00
8.83 -7.70 -7.70
17.96 13.89 9.37
Double Moving Average
N=2
bt m Ft+m Forecast et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S'

-0.25 1 7 7 1 1 1 12.50 12.50 8.00


0.00 1 7.5 8 -1 1 1 -14.29 14.29 7.33
1.00 1 11.5 12 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 9.00
0.75 1 12.5 13 -3 3 9 -30.00 30.00 9.67
-0.25 1 10 10 1 1 1 9.09 9.09 11.00
0.50 1 12.5 13 -1 1 1 -8.33 8.33 11.00
-0.25 1 10.5 11 -1 1 1 -10.00 10.00 11.00
0.50 1 13 13 1 1 1 7.14 7.14 12.00

1.50 1 18 18 -2 2 4 -12.50 12.50 13.33


1 18 18
2 19.5 20
3 21 21
4 22.5 23
5 24 24
6 25.5 26
7 27 27
8 28.5 29
9 30 30
10 31.5 32
11 33 33
12 34.5 35
318 -5 11 19 -46.39 103.85
Moving Average
N=3
S" at bt m Ft+m Forecast et |et| et^2 Pe(%)

8.11 9.89 0.89 1 10.78 11 1 1 1 8.33


8.67 10.67 1.00 1 11.67 12 -2 2 4 -20.00
9.89 12.11 1.11 1 13.22 14 -3 3 9 -27.27
10.56 11.44 0.44 1 11.89 12 0 0 0 0.00
11.00 11.00 0.00 1 11.00 11 -1 1 1 -10.00
11.33 12.67 0.67 1 13.33 14 0 0 0 0.00

12.11 14.56 1.22 1 15.78 16 0 0 0 0.00


1 15.78 16
2 17.00 17
3 18.22 19
4 19.44 20
5 20.67 21
6 21.89 22
7 23.11 24
8 24.33 25
9 25.56 26
10 26.78 27
11 28.00 28
12 29.22 30
275 -5 7 15 -48.94
Single Exponential Smoothing 0.01
0.01
|pe| Ft+1 Forecast et |et| et^2
9 9 0 0 0
9.00 9 -2 2 4
8.98 9 -1 1 1
8.97 9 -2 2 4
8.33 8.95 9 3 3 9
20.00 8.98 9 1 1 1
27.27 8.99 9 2 2 4
0.00 9.01 10 2 2 4
10.00 9.04 10 0 0 0
0.00 9.05 10 4 4 16

0.00 9.10 10 6 6 36
9.17 10
9.24 10
9.31 10
9.37 10
9.44 10
9.50 10
9.57 10
9.63 10
9.70 10
9.76 10
9.82 10
9.88 10
65.61 120 13 23 79
g 0.01 double exponential s
0.05
Pe(%) |pe| S' S" a b m Ft+m Forecast
0.00 0.00 9 9
-28.57 28.57 8.900 8.995 8.805 -0.005
-12.50 12.50 8.855 8.988 8.722 -0.007 1 8.715 9
-28.57 28.57 8.762 8.977 8.548 -0.011 1 8.537 9
25.00 25.00 8.924 8.974 8.874 -0.003 1 8.872 9
10.00 10.00 8.978 8.974 8.982 0.000 1 8.982 9
18.18 18.18 9.079 8.980 9.179 0.005 1 9.184 10
16.67 16.67 9.225 8.992 9.458 0.012 1 9.471 10
0.00 0.00 9.264 9.005 9.522 0.014 1 9.536 10
28.57 28.57 9.501 9.030 9.971 0.025 1 9.996 10

37.50 37.50 9.826 9.070 10.581 0.040 1 10.621 11


1 10.621 11
2 10.661 11
3 10.701 11
4 10.740 11
5 10.780 11
6 10.820 11
7 10.860 11
8 10.899 11
9 10.939 11
10 10.979 11
11 11.019 12
12 11.059 12
66.28 205.56 134
double exponential smoothing 0.05

et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe| X.Y


9
14
-1 1 1 -12.500 12.500 24
-2 2 4 -28.571 28.571 28
3 3 9 25.000 25.000 60
1 1 1 10.000 10.000 60
1 1 1 9.091 9.091 77
2 2 4 16.667 16.667 96
0 0 0 0.000 0.000 90
4 4 16 28.571 28.571 140

5 5 25 31.250 31.250 192

13 19 61 79.508 161.650
Regresi Linear
b 0.70676692 a 6.30485304
X^2 d.t F=a+b(t) Forecast et |et| et^2
1 9 7.01 8 1 1 1
4 28 7.72 8 -1 1 1
9 72 8.43 9 -1 1 1
16 112 9.13 10 -3 3 9
25 300 9.84 10 2 2 4
36 360 10.55 11 -1 1 1
49 539 11.25 12 -1 1 1
64 768 11.96 12 0 0 0
81 810 12.67 13 -3 3 9
100 1400 13.37 14 0 0 0

144 2304 14.79 15 1 1 1


14.79 15
15.49 16
16.20 17
16.91 17
17.61 18
18.32 19
19.03 20
19.73 20
20.44 21
21.15 22
21.85 22
22.56 23
230 -6 14 28
Pe(%) |pe|
11.11 11.11
-14.29 14.29
-12.50 12.50
-42.86 42.86
16.67 16.67
-10.00 10.00
-9.09 9.09
0.00 0.00
-30.00 30.00
0.00 0.00

6.25 6.25

-84.71 152.76
HASIL FORECASTING NOMOR 2

Nama : Raden Mirna Pertiwi


NPM : 0514204005
X Y
Bulan N=3
Periode Unit Terjual
S' Forecast
1 Januari 37
2 Februari 40
3 Maret 41
4 April 37 39.33 40
5 Mei 45 39.33 40
6 Juni 50 41.00 41
7 Juli 43 44.00 44
8 Agustus 47 46.00 46
9 September 56 46.67 47
10 Oktober 52 48.67 49
11 November 55 51.67 52
12 Desember 54 54.33 55
13 Januari 53.67 54
14 Februari 53.67 54
15 Maret 53.67 54
16 April 53.67 54
17 Mei 53.67 54
18 Juni 53.67 54
19 Juli 53.67 54
20 Agustus 53.67 54
21 September 53.67 54
22 Oktober 53.67 54
23 November 53.67 54
24 Desember 53.67 54
Total 648

Single Moving Average


N=3 N=5
ME 2.78 5.00
SSE 5.21 6.75
Error Statistik
MSE 24.11 39.00
MASE 3.89 5.00
MPE 5.14 9.49
Error Relatif
MAPE 7.87 9.49
ORECASTING NOMOR 2

Single Moving Average


N=3
et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S' Forecast

-3 3 9 -8.11 8.11
5 5 25 11.11 11.11
9 9 81 18.00 18.00 40.00 40
-1 1 1 -2.33 2.33 42.60 43
1 1 1 2.13 2.13 43.20 44
9 9 81 16.07 16.07 44.40 45
3 3 9 5.77 5.77 48.20 49
3 3 9 5.45 5.45 49.60 50
-1 1 1 -1.85 1.85 50.60 51
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
52.80 53
25 35 217 46.25 70.82 636

Double Moving Average Single exponential smoothing Double exponential smoothing


N=3 N=5 =0.05 =0.01
-2.00 -4.50 8.27 9.50
4.41 5.72 10.32 11.64
17.00 24.50 96.82 121.90
3.25 4.50 8.45 9.70
-4.26 -8.38 16.28 18.53
6.60 8.38 16.77 19.07
N=5
et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S' S"

39.33
39.33 -
41.00 39.89
10 10 100 20.00 20.00 44.00 41.44
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 46.00 43.67
3 3 9 6.38 6.38 46.67 45.56
11 11 121 19.64 19.64 48.67 47.11
3 3 9 5.77 5.77 51.67 49.00
5 5 25 9.09 9.09 54.33 51.56
3 3 9 5.56 5.56 53.67 53.22

35 35 273 66.44 66.44

Double exponential smoothing


Regresi Linear Error Minimum
=0.01
9.50 -0.50 -4.50
11.64 3.28 3.28
121.90 9.83 9.83
9.70 2.33 2.33
18.53 -1.52 -8.38
19.07 5.13 5.13
Double Moving A
N=3
at bt m Ft+m Forecast et |et| et^2 Pe(%)

- - - - -
42.11 1.11 1 43.22 44 1 1 1 2.22
46.56 2.56 1 49.11 50 0 0 0 0.00
48.33 2.33 1 50.67 51 -8 8 64 -18.60
47.78 1.11 1 48.89 49 -2 2 4 -4.26
50.22 1.56 1 51.78 52 4 4 16 7.14
54.33 2.67 1 57.00 57 -5 5 25 -9.62
57.11 2.78 1 59.89 60 -5 5 25 -9.09
54.11 0.44 1 54.56 55 -1 1 1 -1.85
1 54.56 55
2 55.00 55
3 55.44 56
4 55.89 56
5 56.33 57
6 56.78 57
7 57.22 58
8 57.67 58
9 58.11 59
10 58.56 59
11 59.00 59
12 59.44 60
689 -16 26 136 -34.05
Double Moving Average
N=5
|pe| S' S" at bt m Ft+m Forecast et |et|

2.22 40
0.00 42.6
18.60 43.2
4.26 44.4 - - - - - -
7.14 48.2 43.68 52.72 4.52 1 57.24 58 -2 2
9.62 49.6 45.6 53.6 4 1 57.6 58 -6 6
9.09 50.6 47.2 54 3.4 1 57.4 58 -3 3
1.85 52.8 49.12 56.48 3.68 1 60.16 61 -7 7
1 60.16 61
2 63.84 64
3 67.52 68
4 71.2 72
5 74.88 75
6 78.56 79
7 82.24 83
8 85.92 86
9 89.6 90
10 93.28 94
11 96.96 97
12 100.64 101
52.78 970 -18 18
Single Exponential Smoothing 0.05
0.05
et^2 Pe(%) |pe| Ft+1 Forecast et |et|
37 37 0 0
37.00 37 3 3
37.15 38 3 3
37.34 38 -1 1
37.33 38 7 7
37.71 38 12 12
38.32 39 4 4
38.56 39 8 8
4 -3.57 3.57 38.98 39 17 17
36 -11.54 11.54 39.83 40 12 12
9 -5.45 5.45 40.44 41 14 14
49 -12.96 12.96 41.17 42 12 12
41.81 42
42.42 43
43.00 43
43.55 44
44.07 45
44.57 45
45.04 46
45.49 46
45.91 46
46.32 47
46.70 47
47.07 48
98 -33.53 33.53 542 91 93
le Exponential Smoothing 0.05 dou
0.01
et^2 Pe(%) |pe| S' S" a b
0 0.00 0.00 37.0000 37.0000
9 7.50 7.50 37.0300 37.0003 37.0597 0.0003
9 7.32 7.32 37.0697 37.0010 37.1384 0.0007
1 -2.70 2.70 37.0690 37.0017 37.1363 0.0007
49 15.56 15.56 37.1483 37.0031 37.2935 0.0015
144 24.00 24.00 37.2768 37.0059 37.5478 0.0027
16 9.30 9.30 37.3341 37.0092 37.6590 0.0033
64 17.02 17.02 37.4307 37.0134 37.8481 0.0042
289 30.36 30.36 37.6164 37.0194 38.2134 0.0060
144 23.08 23.08 37.7602 37.0268 38.4937 0.0074
196 25.45 25.45 37.9326 37.0359 38.8294 0.0091
144 22.22 22.22 38.0933 37.0464 39.1402 0.0106

1065 179.10 184.51


double exponential smoothing

m Ft+m Forecast et |et| et^2 Pe(%) |pe|

1 37.1391 38 3 3 9 7.3171 7.3171


1 37.1370 38 -1 1 1 -2.7027 2.7027
1 37.2950 38 7 7 49 15.5556 15.5556
1 37.5505 38 12 12 144 24.0000 24.0000
1 37.6622 38 5 5 25 11.6279 11.6279
1 37.8523 38 9 9 81 19.1489 19.1489
1 38.2195 39 17 17 289 30.3571 30.3571
1 38.5011 39 13 13 169 25.0000 25.0000
1 38.8385 39 16 16 256 29.0909 29.0909
1 39.1508 40 14 14 196 25.9259 25.9259
1 39.1508 40
2 39.1613 40
3 39.1719 40
4 39.1825 40
5 39.1931 40
6 39.2036 40
7 39.2142 40
8 39.2248 40
9 39.2354 40
10 39.2459 40
11 39.2565 40
12 39.2671 40
480 95 97 1219 185.3207 190.7262
Regresi Linear
b 1.72377622 a 35.2121212
X.Y X^2 d.t F=a+b(t) Forecast et |et|
37 1 37 36.94 37 0 0
80 4 160 38.66 39 1 1
123 9 369 40.38 41 0 0
148 16 592 42.11 43 -6 6
225 25 1125 43.83 44 1 1
300 36 1800 45.55 46 4 4
301 49 2107 47.28 48 -5 5
376 64 3008 49.00 50 -3 3
504 81 4536 50.73 51 5 5
520 100 5200 52.45 53 -1 1
605 121 6655 54.17 55 0 0
648 144 7776 55.90 56 -2 2
57.62 58
59.34 60
61.07 62
62.79 63
64.52 65
66.24 67
67.96 68
69.69 70
71.41 72
73.14 74
74.86 75
76.58 77
811 -6 28
et^2 Pe(%) |pe|
0 0.00 0.00
1 2.50 2.50
0 0.00 0.00
36 -16.22 16.22
1 2.22 2.22
16 8.00 8.00
25 -11.63 11.63
9 -6.38 6.38
25 8.93 8.93
1 -1.92 1.92
0 0.00 0.00
4 -3.70 3.70

118 -18.20 61.50