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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Introduction

Areas (LGAs) in South Australia. The disease has affected a proportion of people

in these communities. Medical professionals have not yet reached a conclusion

about what is to be done about the outbreak. It is essential that this analysis is

completed as soon as possible to draw conclusions that enables health

authorities to take immediate and appropriate actions to handle the epidemic.

There has been a request to analyse the data. Using the existing data, the

analysis has been focused on the incidents of disease, the trends from the five-

week period (20/02 20/03/2017), distribution across all LGAs, and the impact of

people taking and not taking preventative measures. This analysis will be

concluded with recommendations and challenges faced in the analysis.

- Hypothesis testing

1

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Method

The raw data given was dense. It consisted of all the LGAs (City of Adelaide,

Adelaide Hills Council, City of Burnside, City of Campbelltown, City of Charles

Sturt, Town of Gawler, City of Holdfast Bay, City of Marion, City of Mitcham, City

of Norwood Payneham & St Peters, City of Onkaparinga, City of Playford, City of

Port Adelaide Enfield, City of Prospect, City of Salisbury, City of Tea Tree Gully,

City of Unley, Town of Walkerville, and City of West Torrens). It has information on

the number of sick people with and without preventative measures. It also has

information about the number of people disabled and dead. The temperatures

and ages of the confirmed sick people was also provided, which is excluded in

the analysis.

Data aggregation has been done. The distribution of sick people was clustered

into LGAs, preventative measures, and no preventative measures across the five-

week period. Dispersion of data was measured by calculating the central

tendencies (mean, median and mode), measures of spread (range, interquartile

range, and standard deviation). Calculations of the normal distribution of sick

people was calculated and presented. A comparison between sick people who

have and have not taken preventative measures was calculated and presented in

scatter plots, line graphs and bar graphs. Some general statistical information

(i.e. total healthy population, percentage of total average, percentage of total

sick people for five weeks) was gathered (see Error: Reference source not found).

Excel was used to create all my tables and representations. When aggregating

the data, all the disease data was put into one spreadsheet, from week one

(20/02) to week 5 (20/03). To filter the data further, I added a separate sheet to

put in the data required for the investigation the amount of people who got sick

with preventative and without preventative measures. Other sub- sheets that

could be made using the main sheet to show different representations. In the

end, a summary was made.

Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks

(20/02 - 20/03/2017) or Figure 12 - Frequency Distribution of Sick People With

Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017),

the mean and standard deviation of each data set was calculated with the

following formulas:

=AVERAGE This function takes all the data from the first to last piece that is

selected and returns the average of its arguments. Using this function makes

finding the mean more efficient because when calculated manually with lots of

data, mistakes can be made.

more efficient than doing it by hand because the formula for standard deviation

has many components that need to be calculated correctly.

2

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

After calculating the mean standard deviation, a normal distribution graph can

be made. The data of the frequency of incidents is put as the x axis on a scatter

plot and the data for normal distribution on the y axis of the scatter plot.

normal distribution for the specified mean and standard deviation. This function

has a very wide range of applications in statistics, including hypothesis testing.

The function calculates the normal distribution for each y-value based on the x-

value given. The x is the value for which the distribution is chosen, mean is the

arithmetic mean of the distribution, standard deviation is the standard deviation

for the distribution and cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of

the function. If cumulative is TRUE, NORM.DIST returns the cumulative

distribution function; if FALSE, it returns the probability mass function. In this

case, FALSE is used.

Temperature Among Sick People), the empirical rule can be applied (see Figure 2

- Empirical Rule Applied to a Normal Curve):

approximately 60% of the values lie within the first standard deviation of

the mean ( 1),

approximately 95% of the values lie within two standard deviations of the

mean ( 2), and

approximately 99.7% of the values lie within three standard deviations of

the mean ( 3). The mean, median and mode (central tendencies) lie

exactly in the middle.

The Empirical Rule tells you about what percentage of values are within a certain

range of the mean. These results are approximations only, and they only apply if

the data follow a normal distribution. In the case of the data given, the curves for

all graphs are positively skewed, meaning that the Empirical Rule cannot be

applied. However, the Empirical Rule is an important result in statistics because

the concept of going out about two standard deviations to get about 95% of the

values is one that is mentioned often with confidence intervals and hypothesis

tests.

Since the curves of all my graphs are positively skewed, it means that the mean

is greater than the median and the median is closer to the first quartile than to

the third quartile. For skewed distributions, the standard deviation gives no

information on the asymmetry. It is better to use the first and third quartiles (in

this case first quartile), since these will give some sense of the asymmetry of the

distribution. To calculate the quartiles, the QUARTILE function can be used:

=QUARTILE (array, quart) This function returns the quartile of a data set. The

array is used to take the array or cell range of numeric values for which you want

the quartile value; the quart indicates which value to return. In this case, the

quart is equal to three calculating the third quartile (75 th percentile).

Based on the aggregated data, analysis on the trend of disease and distribution

of disease in all LGAs was presented in graphs. When the data was examined in

detail, there were several inadequacies. Parameters that were not clearly defined

3

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

was excluded from preventative measures. The antigen and disease in the

vaccination was unclear. Signs and symptoms were not explicit and only showed

general signs such as increases in body temperature. To assist the analysis, I

have looked up the meanings of preventative measures, health, target groups for

vaccinations and preventable diseases through vaccination. The results and

analysis are presented in the discussion.

4

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Discussion

In this section, the analysis of the epidemic is presented in four ways: (a) a

statistical summary table (b) total comparison of effect of the disease between

people who took preventative measures and those who have not taken

preventative measures, (c) distribution of case across the five-week period for

people who took preventative measures and those who have never taken

preventative measures, and (d) a snapshot of the incidence of the disease for

week four and five.

The statistical summary table indicated that total people who got sick during the

period of five week (20 February 20 of March 2017) were not up to one percent,

0,45. From the total people affected, 83 percent identified in week four and five.

Average of sick people who have taken presentative measures was 190 people,

and the most affected category is those without preventative measures, 959.

Categories Total %

Total healthy people 1,270,008

Total sick people 5,745 0.45%

Total Sick people weeks 4 & 5 4,780 83%

Total Mean Sick People Took Preventative Measures 190 3%

Total Mean of Sick people without Preventative Measures 959 17%

diseases during the period of five weeks. The more it moves from week one to

the following weeks, number of cases among the two categories increase and

the gaps between them becomes wider. It can be confirmed that LGAs who take

preventative measures have a decreased amount of sick people compared to

LGAs who dont take preventative measures. As seen in figure 1, there is a

definite increase in sick people who dont take preventative actions.

Figure 21 - Comparison of Disease Incidents in 19 LGAs With and Without

Preventative Actions

Figure 1.

Comparison of Disease Incidents in 19 LGAs With and Without Preventative Actions

2500

2188

2000

1672

1500

Frequency of Cases

1000

754 721

500

164 199

0 16

0 1 30

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Week

For example, from the total sick people in week five, seventy five percent (75%)

were those without preventative measures and 100% in week one. Though there

are a signifiant amount of people sick regardless, we can conclude that

preventative measures are working.

5

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

The significant differences in the impact of the disease among the two categories

is further explained in the attempt to see the normal distribution of cases in

figures 2 and 3. There a clear distiction among the two.

with a long tail on the right side. This means that approximately 68% of the

cases lie in between one standard deviation from the mean with the exception

on the right side where two points lie in between two standard deviations away

from the mean.

Figure 2

Distribution of Confirmed Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20

0

0

0

0

0

Normal Distribtuion Scale 0

0

0

0

0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Frequency of Incidents

If Figure 8 and Figure 12 are compared, we can see that figure 8 vaguely looks

like it is normally distributed. Figure 12 however is positively skewed like the rest

of the distribution curves.

When normal distribution curves were made for LGAs that took preventative

measures or no preventative measures for 5 weeks, we can see that the

distribution is not normal it is positively skewed. This shows that the mean is

greater than the median and the median is closer to the first quartile. In this

case, the standard deviation gives no information about the assymetry of the

curve. In this case, the first quartile is used to give some sense of the assymetry

of the distribution.

6

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 3

istrubution of Sick People WIth Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017)

0

0

0

0

Normal Distribution Scale 0

0

0

0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Frequency of Incidents

An emphasis was put on weeks four and five because during those weeks,

vaccines were introduced.

Incubation period

Hypothesis testing

7

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Conclusion

What is your overall key message, linked to the work throughout your report?

Give a brief summation of key information from each section, including final

recommendations.

8

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

References List

Total %

Total healthy 1270008

Total sick 5745 0.45%

Total Sick Weeks 4 & 5 4780 0.38%

Total Mean Preventative Measures 190.20 3%

Total Mean No Preventative

Measures 958.80 17%

parameters

9

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

1.4

1.2

0.8

Normal Distribution

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

40.4 40.6 40.8 41 41.2 41.4 41.6 41.8 42

Temperatures

1

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 3 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 1 (20/02/2017)

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

Normal Distribution Scale 0.15

0.1

0.05

0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency of Incidents

Figure 4 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 2 (27/02/2017)

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Frequency of Incidents

2

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 5 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 3 (06/03/2017)

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0

0

0

0

0 50 100 150 200 250

Frequency of Incidents

Figure 6 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 4 (13/03/2017)

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0

0

0

0

0 50 100 150 200

Frequncy of Incidents

3

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 7 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 5 (20/03/2017)

0.01

0.01

0.01

0

Normal Distribution Scale

0

0

0 50 100 150 200 250

Frequency of Incidents

Figure 8 - Frequency Distribution of Confirmed Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs

in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017)

ution of Confirmed Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/

0

0

0

0

0

Normal Distribtuion Scale 0

0

0

0

0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Frequency of Incidents

4

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 9 - Distribution of Number of Sick People With Preventative Actions Week 3 (06/03/2017)

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.08

Normal Distribution Scale 0.06

0.04

0.02

0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Frequency of Incidents

Figure 10 - Distribution of Number of Sick People With Preventative Actions Week 4 (13/03/2017)

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.02

Normal Distribution Scale 0.02

0.01

0.01

0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Frequency of Incidents

5

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 11 - Distribution of Number of Sick People With Preventative Actions Week 5 (20/03/2017)

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

Normal Distribution Scale 0.01

0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Frequency of Incidents

Figure 12 - Frequency Distribution of Sick People With Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide

Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017)

Distrubution of Sick People WIth Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20

0

0

0

0

Normal Distribution Scale 0

0

0

0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Frequency of Incidents

6

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 13 - Average Amount of People Sick After 5 Weeks Without Preventative Actions

100 92.2

90 69.2

80

70 52.6

52.6

51.4

60 47.4

50 37.4

40 26.2

22.4

30 13.8

13

200.81 33.66.4

6.2 8.4

7.4

10

0

Number of Confirmed Sick People

ct

n

w

pe

lto

os

el

Pr

pb

of

m

Ca

ty

Ci

of

ty

Ci

LGA

6 5

5

4 3

3 222

2 11

1

0

Number of Confirmed Sick People 000000000000

ly

il

nc

ul

G

u

Co

ee

Tr

s

ill

a

H

Te

e

id

la

e

Ad

LGA

7

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

250 236

234

209

208

200 171

169

167

141

150 114

104

100

91

100 67

424549

Number of Confirmed Sick People 50 21

713

0

ry

ct

rd

n

E

w

PA

bu

pe

fo

lto

ay

lis

os

el

Pl

Sa

Pr

pb

m

Ca

LGA

Figure 16 - Average Number of Sick People After 5 Weeks With Preventative Actions

90 83.4

80

70

60 47.8

50 43.6

40

30 23.9

19

20 15

12

11.4

8.2

7.6

6.4

Number of Confirmed Sick People 10 1.845.8

0.2

0

0000

e

e

id

id

s

la

rn

e

Bu

Ad

of

of

ty

ty

Ci

Ci

LGA

8

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

Number of Confirmed Sick People 0.2

0.1

0

ct

e

id

pe

la

os

e

Ad

Pr

of

of

ty

ty

Ci

Ci

LGA

140 118

120

100 86

86

80

51 57

52

60 4546

36

31 3 7

40 25

22

Number of Confirmed Sick People 20 1 2 4 6 7 9

0

ct

rd

pe

fo

ay

os

Pl

Pr

of

of

ty

ty

Ci

Ci

LGA

9

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 19 - Comparison of Sick People per LGA With Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks

Comparison of Sick People per LGA With Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks

140

120

100

80

60

40

Frequency of Sick People 20

0

ey

m

t

e

E

ur

PA

id

ha

nl

St

la

U

itc

e

s

Ad

M

a rle

Ch

LGA

Figure 20 - Comparison of Sick People per LGA Without Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks

Comparison of Sick People per LGA Without Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks

350

300

250

200

150

100

Frequency of Sick People 50

0

ey

m

t

e

E

ur

PA

id

ha

nl

St

la

U

itc

e

s

Ad

M

a rle

Ch

LGA

10

Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:

570070T

Figure 21 - Comparison of Disease Incidents in 19 LGAs With and Without Preventative Actions

2500

2188

2000

1672

1500

Frequency of Cases

1000

754 721

500

164 199

0 16

0 1 30

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Week Number

Figure 22 - Total Number of People Who Have and Haven't Taken Preventative Measures During

Weeks 4 & 5

Total Number of People Who Have and Haven't Taken Preventative Measures During Weeks 4 & 5

600

500

400

300

200

Number of People 100

0

ey

m

t

e

E

ur

PA

id

ha

nl

St

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U

itc

e

s

Ad

M

a rle

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LGA

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