A B C D E F G H I J

1 Software Decision Analysis

2

file:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_7/349354933.xlsx Model
 A B C D E F G H I J
1 Software Decision Analysis
2

file:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_7/349354933.xlsx Model Formulas

 G H I
1 SimVoi Simulation Data
2
3 Date (current date)
4 Time (current time)
5
6 Workbook (file name)
7
8 Number of Trials 500
9 Seed 12345678
10
11 Output Value Worksheet Model
12 Output Value Cell $C$10
13 Output Value Label Net Cash Flow
14
15 Information Worksheet Model
16 Information Cell $C$6
17 Information Label Units Sold
18
19 Information Worksheet Model
20 Information Cell $C$7
21 Information Label Unit Variable Cost
22
23 Information Worksheet Model
24 Information Cell $C$8
25 Information Label Fixed Costs
 AJ AK AL AM AN
1 Net Cash Flow Units Sold Unit Variable Cost Fixed Costs Cumul.Rel.Freq.
2 $26,634 539 $6.41 $10,000 0.005
3 $30,400 601 $6.60 $10,000 0.015
4 $30,782 614 $6.63 $10,000 0.025
5 $33,722 676 $6.63 $10,000 0.035
6 $36,397 696 $6.78 $10,000 0.045
7 $37,711 701 $6.87 $10,000 0.055
8 $38,326 717 $6.96 $10,000 0.065
9 $38,446 732 $6.98 $10,000 0.075
10 $39,518 743 $7.04 $10,000 0.085
11 $39,668 744 $7.05 $10,000 0.095
 AP AQ AR AS
1 Net Cash Flow Units Sold Unit Variable Cost Fixed Costs
2 $48,155 854 $8.58 $12,000
3 $70,683 1170 $8.32 $12,000
4 $86,437 1371 $7.20 $12,000
5 $66,834 1079 $7.81 $10,000
6 $77,635 1283 $9.13 $12,000
7 $61,920 1060 $6.41 $15,000
8 $70,156 1125 $7.72 $10,000
9 $90,185 1422 $8.56 $10,000
10 $47,412 805 $7.72 $10,000
11 $47,154 835 $8.13 $12,000
 AN AO AP
3 Sort Key
4 Trial Units Sold Net Cash Flow
5 322 1485 $90,700
6 43 1471 $90,922
7 188 1469 $92,973
8 239 1469 $93,967
9 206 1465 $91,794
10 236 1462 $95,938
11 114 1460 $93,300
12 320 1445 $92,665
13 136 1430 $88,405
14 8 1422 $90,185
 SimVoi Help

SimVoi Overview

SimVoi Monte Carlo Simulation Add-In with Value of Information

for Microsoft Excel 2007 & 2010 & 2013 & 2016 (Windows)
and Excel 2011 & 2016 (Macintosh)

Before using SimVoi, you build a model in an Excel worksheet with input cells for
uncertain assumptions, an output value cell, and formulas that describe how the
output value depends on the input assumptions.

Next you use SimVoi's random number generator functions to provide values for
your model's uncontrollable, uncertain inputs.

Then you use SimVoi to run a simulation. SimVoi repeatedly samples the uncertain
inputs, collects the model's input and output values, and summarizes the values
in tables and charts.

SimVoi's results summarize the uncertainty about the output value that depends
upon the uncertain inputs.

Value of information measures how much you should be willing to pay to resolve
the uncertainty about each input variable.

All of SimVois functionality is included in the SimVoi add-in file. There is no

separate setup file or help file.

Page 7 of 19
 SimVoi Help

SimVoi Features

SimVoi facilitates Monte Carlo simulation by providing:

Fourteen random number generator functions

Ability to set the seed for random number generation

Automatic repeated sampling for simulation

Frequency distribution of simulation results

Histogram and cumulative distribution charts

Correlations r and r^2 for each pair of variables

Bivariate XY scatter plots for each pair of variables

Value of information for each input variable

Page 8 of 19
 SimVoi Help

Random Numbers

SimVoi adds fourteen random number generator functions to Excel.

You can use these functions as inputs to your model by typing the function name
and arguments in a worksheet cell.

Or, choose (ribbon) Formulas > fx Insert Function > (category) User Defined, and
select the appropriate function from the list box.

The fourteen functions are:

RANDBINOMIAL(trials,probability_s)
RANDBIVARNORMAL(mean1,stdev1,mean2,stdev2,correl12)
RANDCUMULATIVE(value_cumul)
RANDDISCRETE(value_discrete)
RANDEXPONENTIAL(lambda)
RANDINTEGER(bottom,top)
RANDLOGNORMAL(Mean,StDev)
RANDNORMAL(mean,standard_dev)
RANDPOISSON(mean)
RANDSAMPLE(population)
RANDTRIANGULAR(minimum,most_likely,maximum)
RANDTRUNCBIVARNORMAL(mean1,stdev1,mean2,stdev2,
correl12,min1,max1,min2,max2)
RANDTRUNCNORMAL(Mean,StDev,MinValue,MaxValue)
RANDUNIFORM(minimum,maximum)

FAST versus RAND

SimVoi's RAND functions include extensive error checking of arguments.

After you verify that the functions are working properly, you may want to
substitute SimVoi's FAST functions.

SimVoi's FAST functions have minimal error checking and therefore run faster.

Page 9 of 19
 SimVoi Help

SimVoi Shortcut Key

For Windows Excel, hold down the Shift and Ctrl keys, and press the V key.

For Macintosh Excel, hold down the Option and Command keys, and press the V
key.

Output Value Cell

Select the Output Value Cell edit box, and point to a single cell on your worksheet
or type a cell reference.

The Output Value Cell of your model must contain a formula that depends, usually
indirectly, on the model inputs determined by the random number generator
functions.

Information Cells

Select the Information Cell(s) edit box, and specify cells on your worksheet that
are uncertain inputs or other cells you want to monitor.

To select multiple cells, select the first cell or contiguous range of cells, and then
hold down the Ctrl key (Windows) or Command key (Macintosh) while you select
the other cells or ranges of cells.

All cells and ranges you select in the Information Cell(s) edit box must be on the
same worksheet.

Page 10 of 19
 SimVoi Help

Select Multiple Cells

You can select non-adjacent cells by typing cell and range references separated by
commas, but it is easier to use the keyboard and mouse together.

Optionally, to show only the edit box so that it is easier to navigate on the
worksheet, click the small box containing a dash at the far right end of the edit
box.

Click on the first cell you want to select with the mouse pointer to make it the
active cell, or click and drag to select a range.

Release the mouse button.

Press and hold down the Ctrl key (Windows) or Command key (Macintosh) on the
keyboard.

Click on another cell you want to select without releasing the Ctrl key or
Command key, or click and drag to select another range.

Once all the desired cells or ranges are selected, release the Ctrl key or Command
key.

Do not click anywhere else with the mouse pointer once you release the Ctrl key
or Command key until you are completely finished making the multiple selections.

If you optionally had hidden the SimVoi dialog box by clicking the small box
containing a dash at the far right end of the edit box, click the small box again to
restore the SimVoi dialog box.

Number of Trials

For Monte Carlo simulation without value of information, type the desired number
of trials. Enter only digits without commas or other punctuation.

If the workbook file type is XLSX, the maximum number of trials is 1,048,574.

If the workbook file type is XLS, the maximum number of trials is 65,534.

Page 11 of 19
 SimVoi Help

Value of Information

Value of information for each information cell is estimated using discrete

approximations which depend on the number of brackets and trials per bracket
which you specify.

For example, if you specify 100 brackets and 100 trials per bracket, SimVoi will
use 10,000 trials for the Monte Carlo simulation.

When you enter the number of brackets and trials per bracket, enter only digits
without commas or other punctuation.

Bivariate Charts

If you specify one or more Information Cells and check the box for Bivariate
Charts, SimVoi will create tables showing r and r-squared for each pair of
variables, using the total number of trials.

SimVoi also creates bivariate XY scatter charts for each pair of variables. These
charts may be easier to interpret if you use 500 points, for example, instead of
10,000 points.

When you type the number, enter only digits without commas or other
punctuation.

Cumulative Charts

If you check the box for Cumulative Charts, SimVoi will create a cumulative
relative frequency chart for each variable, in addition to the usual histogram chart
and summary measures.

The histogram is based on the frequency distribution of the total number of trials.

The univariate summary measures use the total number of trials.

If you want to minimize the workbook file size, you may specify a smaller number
of points for the cumulative distribution.

When you type the number, enter only digits without commas or other
punctuation.

Page 12 of 19
 SimVoi Help

Random Number Seed

The Random Number Seed edit box allows you to set the seed for SimVoi's random
number generator functions.

The random number seed must be an integer between 1 and 2,147,483,646,

inclusive.

If you do specify a seed, enter only digits without commas or other punctuation.

About The Seed

The results of SimVoi's random number generator functions depend on SimVoi's

own uniform random number function that is completely independent of Excel's
built-in RAND().

Random numbers generated by the computer are actually pseudo-random. The

numbers appear to be random, and they pass various statistical tests for
randomness. But they are actually calculated by an algorithm where each random
number depends on the previous random number. Such an algorithm generates a
long, repeatable sequence. The seed specifies where the algorithm starts in the
sequence.

Decimal values for SimVoi's uniform random number generator are calculated by
dividing a uniformly distributed random integer by 2147483647, i.e., 2^31-1,
which is the function's period.

The random integers are generated using the well-documented Park-Miller

algorithm, where each random integer depends on the previous random integer.

Unlike Excel's RAND() function, you can use SimVoi at any time to specify an
integer seed, which is used as the previous random integer for the sequence of
random numbers generated by the SimVoi functions.

Page 13 of 19
 SimVoi Help

Simulate Button

For each trial of the simulation, Excel recalculates all functions and formulas on all
open worksheets and workbooks.

For speedier simulations, close all workbooks except the one containing your
model and its random number generator functions.

After you click the Simulate button, you may see a reminder message.

It is very important that you do not press a key and do not click the mouse until all
simulation calculations are finished and the charts are displayed.

If you do press a key or click the mouse, the simulation may be interrupted and
the results will not be reliable.

Page 14 of 19
Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi

Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a contract.

By downloading, accepting delivery of, installing, or using any part of the
Software, licensee agrees to be bound by all terms and conditions of this license.

Definitions The software product, Software, means the Pro, Student, or Trial
version of TreePlan, SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in files, associated
example files, and electronic documentation files, and also any updates or
modifications of the foregoing provided by TreePlan Software.

The licensor, TreePlan Software or We or Us or Our, means Mike Middleton

or Michael R. Middleton, doing business as TreePlan Software, a sole
proprietorship, located at 2105 Buchanan Street, #1, San Francisco, CA 94115
USA.

The licensee, You or Your, means the individual person or a single

organizational entity that is being licensed to use the Software.

This license agreement, Agreement, means this legal and binding agreement
between you and TreePlan Software for the Software you are about to download,
install, or use.

"Use" of the Software means the use of any of the Software functions to define,
solve, analyze, or obtain results for a user-defined model.

Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan Software. Your

license confers no title or ownership in the Software and should not be construed
as a sale of any right in the Software. We remain the sole owner of all right, title,
and interest in the Software and related explanatory written and electronic
materials. You acknowledge that no title to the intellectual property in the
Software is transferred to you by the license. You further acknowledge that title
and full ownership rights to the Software will remain the exclusive property of
TreePlan Software and that you will not acquire any rights to the Software except
as expressly set forth in this license.
Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws and
international treaty provisions.

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the Pro version of the Software for single individual use on multiple computers, or
you may install the Pro version on a single computer for shared use, but not both.

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