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Second Edition

Mathematical Statistics
Basic Ideas and Selected Topics
Volume I

Peter J. Bickel
University of California

Kjell A. Doksum
University of California

1'1"(.'nl icc
Hall
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PRENTICE HALL
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Bickel. Peter J.
Mathematical statistics: basic ideas and selected topics / Peter J. Bickel, Kjell A.
Doksum-2 nd ed.
p. em.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN D-13-850363-X(v. 1)
L Mathematical statistics. L Doksum, Kjell A. II. Title.
QA276.B47200l
519.5--dc21 00-031377

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CONTENTS

PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION: VOLUME I xiii

PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION xvii

I STATISTICAL MODELS, GOALS, AND PERFORMANCE CRITERIA 1


1.1 Data, Models, Parameters, and Statistics 1
1.1.1 Data and Models I
1.1.2 Pararnetrizations and Parameters 6
1.1.3 Statistics as Functions on the Sample Space 8
1.1.4 Examples, Regression Models 9
1.2 Bayesian Models 12
1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 16
1.3.1 Components of the Decision Theory Framework 17
1.3.2 Comparison of Decision Procedures 24
1.3.3 Bayes and Minimax Criteria 26
1.4 Prediction 32
1.5 Sufficiency 41
1.6 Exponential Families 49
1.6.1 The One-Parameter Case 49
1.6.2 The Multiparameter Case 53
1.6.3 Building Exponential Families 56
1.6.4 Properties of Exponential Families 58
1.6.5 Conjugate Families of Prior Distributions 62
1.7 Problems and Complements 66
1.8 Notes 95
1.9 References 96

VII

VIII CONTENTS

2 METHODS OF ESTIMATION 99
2.1 Basic Heuristics of Estimation 99
2.1.1 Minimum Contrast Estimates; Estimating Equations 99
2.1.2 The Plug-In and Extension Principles 102
2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 107
2.2.1 Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares 107
2.2.2 Maximum Likelihood 114
2.3 Maximum Likelihood in Multiparameter Exponential Families 121
*2.4 Algorithmic Issues 127
2.4.1 The Method of Bisection 127
2.4.2 Coordinate Ascent 129
2.4.3 The Newton-Raphson Algorithm 132
2.4.4 The EM (ExpectationlMaximization) Algorithm 133
2.5 Problems and Complements 138
2.6 Notes 158
2.7 References 159

3 MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE 161


3.1 Introduction 161
3.2 Bayes Procedures 161
3.3 Minimax Procedures 170
*3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 176
3.4.1 Unbiased Estimation, Survey Sampling 176
3.4.2 The Information Inequality 179
*3.5 Nondecision Theoretic Criteria 188
3.5.1 Computation 188
3.5.2 Interpretability 189
3.5.3 Robustness 190
3.6 Problems and Complements 197
3.7 Notes 210
3.8 References 211

4 TESTING AND CONFIDENCE REGIONS 213


4.1 Introduction 213
4.2 Choosing a Test Statistic: The Neyman-Pearson Lemma 223
4.3 UnifonnIy Most Powerful Tests and Monotone Likelihood Ratio
Models 227
4.4 Confidence Bounds, Intervals, and Regions 233
CONTENTS ix

4.5 The Duality Between Confidence Regions and Tests 241


*4.6 Uniformly Most Accurate Confidence Bounds 248
*4.7 Frequentist and Bayesian Formulations 251
4.8 Prediction Intervals 252
4.9 Likelihood Ratio Procedures 255
4.9.1 Inttoduction 255
4.9.2 Tests for the Mean of a Normal Distribution-Matched Pair
Experiments 257
4.9.3 Tests and Confidence Intervals for the Difference in Means of
Two Normal PopUlations 261
4.9.4 The Two-Sample Prohlem with Unequal Variances 264
4.9.5 Likelihood Ratio Procedures fOr Bivariate Nonnal
Distrihutions 266
4.10 Problems and Complements 269
4.11 Notes 295
4.12 References 295

5 ASYMPTOTIC APPROXIMATIONS 297


5.1 Inttoduction: The Meaning and Uses of Asymptotics 297
5.2 Consistency 301
5.2.1 Plug-In Estimates and MLEs in Exponential Family Models 301
5.2.2 Consistency of Minimum Contrast Estimates 304
5.3 First- and Higher-Order Asymptotics: The Delta Method with
Applications 306
5.3.1 The Delta Method for Moments 306
5.3.2 The Delta Method for In Law Approximations 311
5.3.3 Asymptotic Normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate
in Exponential Families 322
5.4 Asymptotic Theory in One Dimension 324
5.4.1 Estimation: The Multinomial Case 324
*5.4.2 Asymptotic Normality of Minimum Conttast and M -Estimates 327
*5.4.3 Asymptotic Normality and Efficiency of the MLE 331
*5.4.4 Testing 332
*5.4.5 Confidence Bounds 336
5.5 Asymptotic Behavior and Optimality of the Posterior Distribution 337
5.6 Problems and Complements 345
5.7 Notes 362
5.8 References 363
x CONTENTS

6 INFERENCE IN THE MULTIPARAMETER CASE 365


6.1 Inference for Gaussian Linear Models 365
6.1.1 The Classical Gaussian Linear Model 366
6.1.2 Estimation 369
6.1.3 Tests and Confidence Intervals 374
*6.2 Asymptotic Estimation Theory in p Dimensions 383
6.2.1 Estimating Equations 384
6.2.2 Asymptotic Normality and Efficiency of the MLE 386
6.2.3 The Posterior Distribution in the Multiparameter Case 391
*6.3 Large Sample Tests and Confidence Regions 392
6.3.1 Asymptotic Approximation to the Distribution of the
Likelihood Ratio Statistic 392
6.3.2 Wald's and Rao's Large Sample Tests 398
*6.4 Large Sample Methods for Discrete Data 400
6.4.1 Goodness-of-Fit in a Multinomial Model. Pearson's X 2 Test 401
6.4.2 Goodness-of-Fit to Composite Multinomial Models.
Contingency Thbles 403
6.4.3 Logistic Regression for Binary Responses 408
*6.5 Generalized Linear Models 411
*6.6 Robustness Properties and Scmiparametric Models 417
6.7 Problems and Complements 422
6.8 Notes 438
6.9 References 438

A A REVIEW OF BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 441


A.I The Basic Model 441
A.2 Elementary Properties of Probability Models 443
A.3 Discrete Probability Models 443
A.4 Conditional Probability and Independence 444
A.5 Compound Experiments 446
A.6 Bernoulli and Multinomial Trials, Sampling With and Without
Replacement 447
A.7 Probabilities On Euclidean Space 448
A.8 Random Variables and Vectors: Transformations 451
A.9 Independence of Random Variables and Vectors 453
A.IO The Expectation of a Random Variable 454
A.II Moments 456
A.12 Moment and Cumulant Generating Functions 459

CONTENTS XI

A. t3 Some Classical Discrete and Continuous Distributions 460


A.14 Modes of Convergence of Random Variables and Limit Theorems 466
A. I5 Further Limit Theorems and Inequalities 468
A.16 Poisson Process 472
A.17 Notes 474
A.18 References 475

B ADDITIONAL TOPICS IN PROBABILITY AND ANALYSIS 477


B.I Conditioning by a Random Variable or Vector 477
B.I.l The Discrete Case 477
B.I.2 Conditional Expectation for Discrete Variables 479
B.1.3 Properties of Conditional Expected Values 480
B.IA Continuous Variables 482
B.l.5 Comments on the General Case 484
B.2 Distribution Theory for Transformations of Random Vectors 485
B.2.1 The Basic Framework 485
B.2.2 The Gamma and Beta Distributions 488
B.3 Distribution Theory for Samples from a Normal Population 491
B.3.1 The X2 , F, and t Distributions 491
B.3.2 Orthogonal Transformations 494
BA The Bivariate Normal Distribution 497
B.5 Moments of Random Vectors and Matrices 502
B.5.1 Basic Properties of Expectations 502
B.5.2 Properties of Variance 503
B.6 The Multivariate Normal Distribution 506
B.6.1 Definition and Density 506
B.6.2 Basic Properties. Conditional Distributions 508
B.7 Convergence for Random Vectors: Op and Op Notation 511
B.8 Multivariate Calculus 516
B.9 Convexity and Inequalities 518
B.1O Topics in Matrix Theory and Elementary Hilbert Space Theory 519
B.1O.1 Symmetric Matrices 519
B,10.2 Order on Symmetric Matrices 520
B.10.3 Elementary Hilbert Space Theory 521
B.Il Problems and Complements 524
B.12 Notes 538
B.13 References 539

XII CONTENTS

C TABLFS 541
Table I The Standard Nonna! Distribution 542
Table I' Auxilliary Table of the Standard Normal Distribution 543
Table II t Distribution Critical Values 544
Table In x2 Distribution Critical Values 545
Table IV F Distribution Critical Values 546

INDEX 547

I
PREFACE TO THE SECOND
EDITION: VOLUME I

In the twenty-three years that have passed since the first edition of our book appeared
statistics has changed enonnollsly under dIe impact of several forces:

(1) The generation of what were once unusual types of data such as images, trees (phy-
logenetic and other), and other types of combinatorial objects.

(2) The generation of enonnous amounts of data-terrabytes (the equivalent of 10 12


characters) for an astronomical survey over three years.

(3) The possibility of implementing computations of a magnitude that would have once
been unthinkable.

The underlying sources of these changes have been the exponential change in com-
puting speed (Moore's "law") and the development of devices (computer controlled) using
novel instruments and scientific techniques (e.g., NMR tomography, gene sequencing).
These techniques often have a strong intrinsic computational component. Tomographic
data are the result of mathematically based processing. Sequencing is done by applying
computational algorithms to raw gel electrophoresis data.

.,q;, As a consequence the emphasis of statistical theory has shifted away from the small
'4,.
:ci'~:,f" sample optimality results that were a major theme of our book in a number of directions:
.;.
<.it:
(I) Methods for inference based on larger numbers of observations and minimal
assumptions-asymptotic methods in non- and semiparametric models, models with
''infinite'' number of parameters.

(2) The construction of models for time series, temporal spatial series, and other com-
plex data structures using sophisticated probability modeling but again relying for
analytical results on asymptotic approximation. Multiparameter models are the rule.

(3) The use of methods of inference involving simulation as a key element such as the
bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
...
XIll
xiv Preface to the Second Edition: Volume I

(4) The development of techniques not describable in "closed mathematical form" but
rather through elaborate algorithms for which problems of existence of solutions are
important and far from obvious.
(5) The study of the interplay between numerical and statistical considerations. Despite
advances in computing speed, some methods run quickly in real time. Others do not
and some though theoretically attractive cannot be implemented in a human lifetime.
(6) The study of the interplay between the number of observations and the number of
parameters of a model and the beginnings of appropriate asymptotic theories.

There have, of course, been other important consequences such as the extensive devel-
opment of graphical and other exploratory methods for which theoretical development and
connection with mathematics have been minimal. These will not be dealt with in OUr work.
As a consequence our second edition, reflecting what we now teach our graduate stu-
dents, is much changed from the first. Our one long book has grown to two volumes, each
to be only a little shorter than the first edition.
Volume I, which we present in 2000, covers material we now view as important for
all beginning graduate students in statistics and science and engineering graduate students
whose research will involve statistics intrinsically rather than as an aid in drawing conclu-
SIons.
In this edition we pursue our philosophy of describing the basic concepts of mathemat-
ical statistics relating theory to practice. However, our focus and order of presentation have
changed.
Volume [ covers the malerial of Chapters 1-6 and Chapter 10 of the first edition with
pieces of Chapters 7-10 and includes Appendix A on basic probability theory. However,
Chapter 1 now has become part of a larger Appendix B, which includes more advanced
topics from probability theory such as the multivariate Gaussian distribution, weak con-
vergence in Euclidean spaces, and probability inequalities as well as more advanced topics
in matrix theory and analysis. The latter include the principal axis and spectral theorems
for Euclidean space and the elementary theory of convex functions on Rd as well as an
elementary introduction to Hilbert space theory. As in the first edition, we do not require
measure theory but assume from the start that our models are what we call "regular." That
is, we assume either a discrete probability whose support does not depend On the parameter
set, or the absolutely continuous case with a density. Hilbert space theory is not needed, but
for those who know this topic Appendix B points out interesting connections to prediction
and linear regression analysis.
Appendix B is as self-contained as possible with proofs of mOst statements, problems,
and references to the literature for proofs of the deepest results such as the spectral theorem.
The reason for these additions are the changes in subject matter necessitated by the current
areas of importance in the field.
Specifically, instead of beginning with parametrized models we include from the start
non- and semipararnetric models, then go to parameters and parametric models stressing
the role of identifiability. From the beginning we stress function-valued parameters, such as
the density, and function-valued statistics, such as the empirical distribution function. We
Preface to the Second Edition: Volume I xv

also, from the start, include examples that are important in applications, such as regression
experiments. There is more material on Bayesian models and analysis. Save for these
changes of emphasis the other major new elements of Chapter 1, which parallels Chapter 2
of the first edition, are an extended discussion of prediction and an expanded introduction
to k-parameter exponential families. These objects that are the building blocks of most
modem models require concepts involving moments of random vectors and convexity that
are given in Appendix B.
Chapter 2 of this edition parallels Chapter 3 of the first artd deals with estimation. Ma-
jor differences here are a greatly expanded treatment of maximum likelihood estimates
(MLEs), including a complete study of MLEs in canonical k-parameter exponential fam-
ilies. Other novel features of this chapter include a detailed analysis including proofs of
convergence of a standard but slow algorithm for computing MLEs in muitiparameter ex-
ponential families and ail introduction to the EM algorithm, One of the main ingredients of
most modem algorithms for inference. Chapters 3 and 4 parallel the treatment of Chap-
ters 4 and 5 of the first edition on the theory of testing and confidence regions, including
some optimality theory for estimation as well and elementary robustness considerations.
The main difference in our new treatment is the downplaying of unbiasedness both in es-
timation and testing and the presentation of the decision theory of Chapter 10 of the first
edition at this stage.
Chapter 5 of the new edition is devoted to asymptotic approximations. It includes
the initial theory presented in the first edition but goes much further with proofs of consis-
tency and asymptotic normality and optimality of maximum likelihood procedures in infer-
ence. Also new is a section relating Bayesian and frequentist inference via the Bemstein-
von Mises theorem.
Finaliy, Chapter 6 is devoted to inference in multivariate (multiparameter) models. In-
cluded are asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimates, inference in the general
linear model, Wilks theorem on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test, the
Wald and Rao statistics and associated confidence regions, and some parailels to the opti-
mality theory and comparisons of Bayes and frequentist procedures given in the univariate
case in Chapter 5. Generalized linear models are introduced as examples. Robustness from
an asymptotic theory point of view appears also. This chapter uses multivariate calculus
in an intrinsic way and can be viewed as an essential prerequisite for the mOre advanced
topics of Volume II.
As in the first edition problems playa critical role by elucidating and often substantially
expanding the text. Almost all the previous ones have been kept with an approximately
equal number of new ones added-to correspond to our new topics and point of view. The
conventions established on footnotes and notation in the first edition remain. if somewhat
augmented.
Chapters 1-4 develop the basic principles and examples of statistics. Nevertheless, we
star sections that could be omitted by instructors with a classical bent and others that could
be omitted by instructors with more computational emphasis. Although we believe the
material of Chapters 5 and 6 has now become fundamental, there is clearly much that could
be omitted at a first reading that we also star. There are clear dependencies between starred

XVI Pref3ce to the Second Edition: Volume I

sections that follow.

5.4.2 ~ 5.4.3 ~ 6.2 ~ 6.3 ~ 6.4 ~ 6.5


I-. 6.6

Volume II is expected to be forthcoming in 2003. Topics to be covered include per-


mutation and rank tests and their basis in completeness and equivariance. Examples of
application such as the Cox model in survival analysis, other transformation models, and
the classical nonparametric k sample and independence problems will be included. Semi-
parametric estimation and testing will be considered more generally, greatly extending the
material in Chapter 8 of the first edition. The topic presently in Chapter 8, density estima-
tion, will be studied in the context of nonparametric function estimation. We also expect
to discuss classification and model selection using the elementary theory of empirical pro-
cesses. The basic asymptotic tools that will be developed or presented, in part in the text
and, in part in appendices, are weak. convergence for random processes, elementary empir-
ical process theory, and the functional delta method.
A final major topic in Volume II will be Monte Carlo methods such as the bootstrap
and Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
With the tools and concepts developed in this second volume students will be ready for
advanced research in modem statistics.
For the first volume of the second edition we would like to add thanks to new col-
leagnes, particnlarly Jianging Fan, Michael Jordan, Jianhna Hnang, Ying Qing Chen, and
Carl Spruill and the many students who were guinea pigs in the basic theory course at j

Berkeley. We also thank Faye Yeager for typing, Michael Ostland and Simon Cawley for j
producing the graphs, Yoram Gat for proofreading that found not only typos but serious
errors, and Prentice Hall for generous production support.
Last and most important we would like to thank our wives, Nancy Kramer Bickel and
Joan H. Fujimura, and our families for support, encouragement, and active participation in
an enterprise that at times seemed endless, appeared gratifyingly ended in 1976 but has,

with the field, taken on a new life.

Peter J. Bickel
bickel@stat.berkeley.edn
Kjell Doksnm
doksnm@stat.berkeley.edn
,

PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION

This book presents our view of what an introduction to mathematical statistics for students
with a good mathematics background should be. By a good mathematics background we
mean linear algebra and matrix theory and advanced calculus (but no measure theory). Be-
cause the book is an introduction to statistics, we need probability theory and expect readers
to have had a course at the level of, for instance, Hoel, Port, and Stone's Introduction to
Probability Theory. Our appendix does give all the probability that is needed. However,
the treatment is abridged with few proofs and no examples or problems.
We feel such an introduction should at least do the following:
(1) Describe the basic concepts of mathematical statistics indicating the relation of
theory to practice.
(2) Give careful proofs of the major "elementary" results such as the Neyman-Pearson
lemma, the Lehmann--5cheffe theorem. the information inequality, and the Gauss-Markoff
theorem.
(3) Give heuristic discussions of more advanced results such as the large sample theory
of maximum likelihood estimates, and the structure of both Bayes and admissible solutions
in decision theory. The extent to which holes in the discussion can be patched and where
patches can be found should be clearly indicated.
(4) Show how the ideas aod results apply in a variety of important subfields such as
Gaussian linear mOdels, multinomial models, and nonparametric models.
Although there are several good books available for tbis purpose, we feel that none
has quite the mix of coverage and depth desirable at this level. The work of Rao, Linear
Statistical Inference and Its Applications, 2nd ed., covers most of the material we do and
much more but at a more abstract level employing measure theory. At the other end of the
scale of difficulty for books at this level is the work of Hogg and Craig, Introduction to
Mathematical Statistics, 3rd 00. These authors also discuss most of the topics we deal with
but in many instances do not include detailed discussion of topics we consider essential
such as existence and computation of procedures and large sample behavior.
Our book contains more material than can be covered in tw~ qp.arters. In the two-
quarter courses for graduate students in mathematics, statistics, the physical sciences. and
engineering that we have taught we cover the core Chapters 2 to 7, which go from modeling
through estimation and testing to linear models. In addition we feel Chapter 10 on decision
theory is essential and cover at least the first two sections. Finally, we select topics from

xvii
xviii Preface to the First Edition

Chapter 8 on discrete data and Chapter 9 on nonpararnetric models.


Chapter 1 covers probability theory rather than statistics. Much of this material unfor-
tunately does not appear in basic probability texts but we need to draw on it for the rest of
the book. It may be integrated with the material of Chapters 2-7 as the course proceeds
rather than being given at the start; or it may be included at the end of an introductory
probability course that precedes the statistics course.
A special feature of the book is its many problems. They range from trivial numerical
exercises and elementary problems intended to familiarize the students with the concepts to
material more difficult than that worked out in the text. They are included both as a check
on the student's mastery of the material and as pointers to the wealth of ideas and results
that for obvious reasons of space could not be put into the body of the text.
Conventions: (i) In order to minimize the number of footnotes we have added a section
of comments at the end of each Chapter preceding the problem section. These comments are
ordered by the section to which they pertain. Within each section of the text the presence
of comments at the end of the chapter is signaled by one or more numbers, I for the first, 2
for the second, and so On. The comments contain digressions, reservations, and additional
references. They need to be read only as the reader's curiosity is piqued.
(i) Various notational conventions and abbreviations are used in the text. A list of the
most frequently occurring ones indicating where they are introduced is given at the end of
the text.
(iii) Basic notation for probabilistic objects such as random variables and vectors, den-
sities, distribution functions, and moments is established in the appendix. ,:
We would like to acknowledge our indebtedness to colleagues, students, and friends
who helped us during the various stageS (notes, preliminary edition, final draft) through I,
i
which this book passed. E. L. Lehmann's wise advice has played a decisive role at many ,
points. R. Pyke's careful reading of a next-to-final version caught a number of infelicities
of style and content Many careless mistakes and typographical errors in an earlier version
were caught by D. Minassian who sent us an exhaustive and helpful listing. W. Cannichael,
in proofreading the final version, caught mOre mistakes than both authors together. A
serious error in Problem 2.2.5 was discovered by F. Scholz. Among many others who
helped in the same way we would like to mention C. Chen, S. J. Chou, G. Drew, C. Gray,
U. Gupta, P. X. Quang, and A Samulon. Without Winston Chow's lovely plots Section 9.6
would probably not have been written and without Julia Rubalcava's impeccable typing
and tolerance this text would never have seen the light of day.
We would also like tn thank tlle colleagues and friends who Inspired and helped us to
enter the field of statistics. The foundation of oUr statistical knowledge was obtained in the
lucid, enthusiastic, and stimUlating lectures of Joe Hodges and Chuck Bell, respectively.
Later we were both very much influenced by Erich Lehmann whose ideas are strongly
rellected in this hook.

Peler J. Bickel
Kjell Doksum
Berkeley
/976
Mathematical Statistics
Basic Ideas and Selected Topics
Volume I
Second Edition
,
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I
Chapter 1

STATISTICAL MODELS, GOALS,


AND PERFORMANCE CRITERIA

1.1 DATA. MODELS, PARAMETERS AND STATISTICS

1.1.1 Data and Models


Most studies and experiments. scientific or industrial, large scale or small, produce data
whose analysis is the ultimate object of the endeavor.
Data can consist of:
(1) Vectors of scalars, measurements, and/or characters, for example, a single time
series of measurements.
(2) Matrices of scalars and/or characters, for example, digitized pictures or more rou-
tinely measurements of covariates and response on a set of n individuals-see Example
1.1.4 and Sections 2.2.1 and 6.1.
(3) Arrays of scalars and/or characters as in contingency tables-see Chapter 6--or
more generally multifactor IDultiresponse data on a number of individuals.
(4) All of the above and more, in particUlar, functions as in signal processing, trees as
in evolutionary phylogenies, and so on.
The goals of science and society, which statisticians share, are to draw useful infor-
mation from data using everything that we know. The particular angle of mathematical
statistics is to view data as the outcome of a random experiment that we model mathemati-
cally.
A detailed discussion of the appropriateness of the models we shall discuss in particUlar
situations is beyond the scope of this book, but we will introduce general model diagnostic
tools in Volume 2, Chapter 1. Moreover, we shall parenthetically discuss features of the
sources of data that can make apparently suitable models grossly misleading. A generic
source of trouble often called grf?ss errors is discussed in greater detail in the section on
robustness (Section 3.5.3). In any case all our models are generic and, as usual, ''The Devil
is in the details!" All the principles we discuss and calculations we perform should only
be suggestive guides in successful applications of statistical analysis in science and policy.
Subject matter specialists usually have to be principal guides in model formulation. A

1
! 2 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1
I
priori, in the words of George Box (1979), "Models of course, are never true but fortunately
it is only necessary that they be usefuL"
In this book we will study how, starting with tentative models:
(I) We can conceptualize the data structure and our goals more precisely. We begin
this in the simple examples that follow and continue in Sections 1.2-1.5 and throughout
the book.
(2) We can derive methods of extracting useful information from data and, in particular,
give methods that assess the generalizability of experimental results. For instance, if we
observe an effect in our data, to what extent can we expect the same effect more generally?
Estimation, testing, confidence regions, and more general procedures will be discussed in
Chapters 2-4.
(3) We can assess the effectiveness of the methods we propose. We begin this discussion
with decision theory in Section 1.3 and continue with optimality principles in Chapters 3
and 4.
(4) We can decide if the models we propose are approximations to the mechanism
generating the data adequate for our purposes. Goodness of fit tests, robustness, and diag-
nostics are discussed in Volume 2, Chapter I.
(5) We can be guided to alternative or more general descriptions that might fit better.
Hierarchies of models are discussed throughout.
Here are some examples:
(a) We are faced with a population of N elements, for instance, a shipment of manufac-
:" tured items. An unknown number Ne of these elements are defective. It is too expensive
e,
to examine all of the items. So to get infonnation about a sample of n is drawn without
,. replacement and inspected. The data gathered are the number of defectives found in the
sample.
(b) We want to study how a physical or economic feature, for example. height or in-
come. is distributed in a large population. An exhaustive census is impossible so the study
is based on measurements and a sample of n individuals drawn at random from the popu-
lation. The population is so large that, for modeling purposes, we approximate the actual
process of sampling without replacement by sampling with replacement.
(c) An experimenter makes n independent detenninations of the value of a physical
constant p,. His or her measurements are subject to random fluctuations (error) and the data
can be thought of as p, plus some random errors.
(d) We want to compare the efficacy of two ways of doing something under similar
conditions such as brewing coffee, reducing pollution. treating a disease, producing energy,
learning a maze, and so on. This can be thought of as a problem of comparing the efficacy
of two methods applied to the members of a certain population. We run m + n independent
experiments as follows: m + n members of the population are picked at random and m
of these are assigned to the first method and the remaining n are assigned to the second
method. In this manner, we obtain one or more quantitative or qualitative measures of
efficacy from each experiment. For instance, we can assign two drugs. A to m, and B to
n, randomly selected patients and then measure temperature and blood pressure. have the
patients rated qualitatively for improvement by physicians, and so on. Random variability
Section 1.1 Data, Models, Parameters, and Statistics 3

here would come primarily from differing responses among patients to the same drug but
also from error in the measurements and variation in the purity of the drugs.
We shall use these examples to arrive at out formulation of statistical models and to
indicate some of the difficulties of constructing such models. First consider situation (a),
which we refer to as:
Example 1.1.1. Sampling Inspection. The mathematical model suggested by the descrip-
tion is well defined. A random experiment has been perfonned. The sample space consists
of the numbers 0, 1, ... , n corresponding to the number of defective items found. On this
space we can define a random variable X given by X(k) ~ k, k ~ 0, I, ... , n. If N8 is
the number of defective items in the population sampled, then by (AI3.6)

(J.l.l)

if max(n - N(I - 8),0) < k < min(N8, n).


Thus, X has an hypergeometric, H(N8, N, n) distribution.
The main difference that our model exhibits from the usual probability model is that

NO is unknown and, in principle, can take on any value between and N. So, although
the sample space is well defined, we cannot specify the probability structure completely
but rather only give a family {H(N8, N, n)} of probability distributions for X, anyone of
which could have generated the data actually observed. 0

Example 1,1.2, Sample from a Population. One-Sample Models. Situation (b) can be
thought of as a generalization of (a) in that a quantitative measure is taken rather than
simply recording "defective" or not. It can also be thought of as a limiting case in which
N = 00, so that sampling with replacement replaces sampling without. Fonnally, if the
measurements are scalar, we observe XI, ... ,xn , which are modeled as realizations of
X I, ... ,Xn independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables with common
unknown distribution function F. We often refer to such X I, ... , X n as a random sample
from F, and also write that Xl, ... , X n are ij.d. as X with X ,....., F, where ..".../ ' stands
for "is distributed as." The model is fully described by the set :F of distributions that we
specify. The same model also arises naturally in situation (c). Here we can write the n
determinations of p, as

Xi = I.t + (i, 1 <i < n (1.1.2)

where = ( I , ... 1 n) T is the vector of random errors. What should we assume about
the distribution of , which together with J1, completely specifies the joint distribution of
Xl, ... , X n ? Of course, that depends on how the experiment is carried out. Given the
description in (c), we postulate
(l) The value of the error committed on one determination does not affect the value of
the error at other times. That is, I,"" n are independent.
4 Statistical Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

(2) The distribution of the error at one determination is the same as that at another.
Thus, E}, ... , n are identically distributed.
(3) The distribution of f is independent of J1,.
Equivalently Xl, ... ,Xn are a random sample and, if we let G be the distribution
function of f 1 and F that of Xl, then

F(x) = G(x - 1") (1.1.3)


and the model is alternatively specified by F, tbe set of F's we postulate, or by {(I", G) :
J1 E R, G E Q} where 9 is the set of all allowable error distributions that we postulate.
Commonly considered 9's are all distributions with center of symmetry 0, or alternatively
all distributions with expectation O. The classical def~ult model is: !
(4) The common distribution of the errors is N(o, 0'2), where 0'2 is unknown. That is,
the Xi are a sample from a N(J.t, (72) population or equivalently F = {tP (':Ji:) : Jl E I
R, cr > O} where tP is the standard normal distribution. 0
This default model is also frequently postulated for measurements taken on units ob-
tained by random sampling from populations, for instance, heights of individuals or log
incomes. It is important to remember that these are assumptions at best only approximately
valid. All actual measurements are discrete rather than continuous. There are absolute
bounds on most quantities-IOO ft high men are impossible. Heights are always nonnega-
tive. The Gaussian distribution, whatever be J.t and cr, will have none of this.
Now consider situation (d). '."
Example 1.1.3. Two-Sample Models. Let Xl, .. 1 X Tn ; YI, ... ,Yn, respectively, be the
responses of m subjects having a given disease given drug A and n other similarly diseased
subjects given drug B. By convention, if drug A is a standard or placebo, we refer to the
x's as control observations. A placebo is a substance such as water tpat is expected to have
no effect on the disease and is used to correct for the well-documented placebo effect, that
is, patients improve even if they only think they are being treated. We let the y's denote the
responses of subjects given a new drug or treatment that is being evaluated by comparing
its effect with that of the placebo. We call the y's treatment observations.
Natural initial assumptions here are:
(1) The x's and y's are realizations of Xl, ... 1 X Tn a sample from F, and Y1, ... 1 Yn a
sample from G, so that the model is specified by the set of possible (F, G) pairs.
To specify this set more closely the critical constant treatment effect assumption is often
made.
(2) Suppose that if treatment A had been administered to a subject response X would
have been obtained. Then if treatment B had been administered to the same subject instead
of treatment A, response y = X + ~ would be obtained where ~ does not depend on x.
This implies that if F is the distribution of a control, then G() = F(' - ~), We call this
the shift model with parameter ~.
Often the final simplification is made.
(3) The control responses are normally distributed, Then if F is the N(I", ,,2) distribu-
tion and G is the N(J.t + ~, cr 2 ) distribution, we have specified the Gaussian two sample
model with equal variances. 0
Section 1.1 Data, Models, Parameters, and Statistics 5

How do we settle on a set of assumptions? Evidently by a mixture of experience and


physical considerations. The advantage of piling on assumptions such as (I )-(4) of Exam-
ple 1.1.2 is that, if they are true. we know how to combine our measurements to estimate J-L
in a highly efficient way and also assess the accuracy of our estimation procedure (Exam-
ple 4.4.1). The danger is that, if they are false, our analyses, though correct for the model
written down. may be quite irrelevant to the experiment that was actually performed, As
our examples suggest, there is tremendous variation in the degree of knowledge and control
we have concerning experiments.
In some applications we often have a tested theoretical model and the danger is small.
The number of defectives in the first example clearly has a hypergeometric distribution; the
number of a particles emitted by a radioactive substance in a small length of time is well
known to be approximately Poisson distributed.
In others, we can be reasonably secure about some aspects, but not others. For instance,
in Example 1.1.2, we can ensure independence and identical distribution of the observa-
tions by using different, equally trained observers with no knowledge of each other's find-
ings. However, we have little control over what kind of distribution of errors we get and
will need to investigate the properties of methods derived from specific error distribution
assumptions when these assumptions are violated. This will be done in Sections 3.5.3 and
6.6.
Experiments in medicine and the social sciences often pose particular difficulties. For
instance, in comparative experiments such as those of Example 1.1.3 the group of patients
to whom drugs A and B are to be administered may be haphazard rather than a random
sample from the population of sufferers from a disease. In this situation (and generally)
it is important to randomize. That is, we use a random number table or other random
mechanism so that the m patients administered drug A are a sample without replacement
from the set of m + n available patients. Without this device we could not know whether
observed differences in drug performance might not (possibly) be due to unconscious bias
on the part of the experimenter. All the severely ill patients might, for instance, have been
assigned to B. The study of the model based on the minimal assumption of randomization
is complicated and further conceptual issues arise. Fortunately, the methods needed for
its analysis are much the same as those appropriate for the situation of Example 1.1.3
when F, G are assumed arbitrary. Statistical methods for models of this kind are given in
Volume 2.
Using our first three examples for illustrative purposes. we now define the elements of
a statistical model. A review of necessary concepts and notation from probability theory
are given in the appendices.
We are given a random experiment with sample space O. On this sample space we have
defined a random vector X = (Xl,'" ,Xn ). When w is the outcome of the experiment,
~(w) is referred to as the observations or data. It is often convenient to identify the random
vector X with its realization, the data X(w). Since it is only X that we observe, we need
only consider its probability distribution. This distribution is assumed to be a member of a
family P of probability distributions on Rn. P is referred to as the model. For instance, in
Example 1.1.1, we observe X and the family P is that of all bypergeometric distributions
with sample size n and population size N. In Example 1.1.2, if (1)-(4) hold, P is the
6 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

family of all distributions according to which Xl, ... ,Xn are independent and identically
distributed with a common N (IL, 0- 2 ) distribution.
I

1.1.2 Parametrizations and Parameters


i
To describe P we USe a parametrization, that is, a map, () --t Po from a space of labels,
the parameter space e, to P; or equivalently write P = {Pe : BEe}. Thus, in Example
1.1.1 we take () to be the fraction of defectives in the shipment, e k
= {O, 1 ,I} and
Pe the H(NB, N, n) distribution. In Example 1.1.2 with assumptions (1)-(4) we have
implicitly taken e = R x R+ and, if () = (Il, 0-2 ), Pe the distribution on Rfl with density
n~ 1 ,; if) (X';JL) where cp is the standard normal density. If, still in this example, we know
e
we are measuring a positive quantity in this model, we have = R+ x R+ . If, on the other
hand, we only wish to make assumptions (1}-(3) with t:. having expectation 0, we can take
e J
= {(I', G) : I' E R, G with density 9 such that xg(x )dx = O} and p(",G) has density
n~ 1 g(Xi -1'). ,,
When we can take e to be a nice subset of Euclidean space and the maps 0 -----+ Po j
are smooth, in senses to be made precise later, models P are called parametric. Models
such as that of Example 1.1.2 with assumptions (1)-(3) are called semiparametric. Fi-
nally, models such as that of Example 1.1.3 with only (I) holding and F,G taken to be
arbitrary are called nonparametric. It's important to note that even nonparametric models
make substantial assumptions-in Example 1.1.3 that Xl, ... , X rn are independent of each
other and Yl , ... , Yn ; moreover,X l , .. . ,Xrn are identically distributed as are Y1 , ... , Yn .
The only truly nonparametric but useless model for X E R n is to assume that its (joint)
distribution can be anything.
Note that there are many ways of choosing a parametrization in these and all other
problems. We may take any one-to-one function of 0 as a new parameter. For instance, in
Example 1.1.1 we can use the number of defectives in the population, NO, as a parameter
and in Example 1.1.2, under assumptions (1)-(4), we may parametrize the model by the
first and second moments of the normal distribution of the observations (i.e., by (tt, j.t2 +
,,2)).
What parametrization we choose is usually suggested by the phenomenon we are mod-
eling; () is the fraction of defectives, tt is the unknown constant being measured. However,
as we shall see later, the first parametrization we arrive at is not necessarily the one leading
to the simplest analysis. Of even greater concern is the possibility that the parametriza-
tion is not one-to-one, that is, such that we can have (}1 f. 02 and yet Pel = Pe 2 Such
parametrizations are called unidentifiable. For instance, in (l,l.2) suppose that we pennit
G to be arbitrary. Then the map sending B = (I', G) into the distribution of (Xl, ... , X n )
e = {(I',G) : I' E R, Ghas(arbitrary)densityg}. Now the
remains the same but
parametrization is unidentifiable because, for eXample, tt = and N(O, 1) errors lead
to the same distribution of the observations a~ tt = 1 and N (~ 1, 1) errors. The critical
problem with such parametrizations is that ev~n with "infinite amounts of data," that is,
knowledge of the true Pe, parts of fJ remain unknowable. Thus, we will need to ensure that
our parametrizations are identifiable, that is, lh i O2 => POl f. Pe 2
Section 1.1 Data, Models, Parameters, and Statistics 7

Dual to the notion of a parametrization, a map from some e to P. is that of a parameter,


formally a map, v, from P to another space N. A parameter is a feature v(P) of the dis-
tribution of X. For instance, in Example 1.1.1, the fraction of defectives () can be thought
of as the mean of X/no In Example 1.1.3 with assumptions (1H2) we are interested in~,
which can be thought of as the difference in the means of the two populations of responses.
In addition to the parameters of interest, there are also usually nuisance parameters, which
correspond to other unknown features of the distribution of X. For instance, in Example
1.1.2, if the errors are normally distributed with unknown variance 0'2, then 0'2 is a nuisance
parameter. We usually try to combine parameters of interest and nuisance parameters into
a single grand parameter (), which indexes the family P, that is, make 8 -----+ Po into a
parametrization of P. Implicit in this description is the assumption that () is a parameter
in the sense we have just defined. But given a parametrization (J -----+ Pe, (J is a parameter
if and only if the parametrization is identifiable. Formally, we can define (J : P -----+ e as
the inverse of the map 8 -----+ Pe, from e to its range P iff the latter map is 1-1, that is, if
POl = Pe'), implies 8 1 = 82 .
More generally, a function q : e -----+ N can be identified with a parameter v( P) iff
Po, ~ Po, implies q(BJl = q(B2 ) and then v(Po) q(B).
Here are two points to note:
(1) A parameter can have many representations. For instance, in Example 1.1.2 with
assumptions (1)-(4) the parameter of interest fl- M(P) can be characterized as the mean
of P, or the median of P, or the midpoint of the interquantile range of P, or more generally
as the center of symmetry of P, as long as P is the set of all Gaussian distributions.
(2) A vector parametrization that is unidentifiable may still have components that are
parameters (identifiable). For instance, consider Example 1.1.2 again in which we as-
sume the error to be Gaussian but with arbitrary mean~. Then P is parametrized
by 8 = (fl1~' 0'2), where 0'2 is the variance of . As we have seen this parametriza-
tion is unidentifiable and neither f1 nor ~ arc parameters in the sense we've defined. But
,,2 = Var(X, ) evidently is and so is I' + C>.
Sometimes the choice of P starts by the consideration of a particular parameter. For
instance, our interest in studying a population of incomes may precisely be in the mean
income. When we sample, say with replacement, and observe Xl, ... , X n independent
with common distribution, it is natural to write

where fl denotes the mean income and, thus, E(i) = O. The (fl, G) parametrization of
Example 1.1.2 is now well defined and identifiable by (1.1.3) and 9 = (G : xdG(x) = J
O}.
Similarly, in Example 1.1.3, instead of postulating a constant treatment effect ~, we
can start by making the difference of the means," = f1Y - flx, the focus of the study. Then
"is identifiable whenever flx and flY exist.
8 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

1.1.3 Statistics as Functions on the Sample Space


I
j
Models and parametrizations are creations of the statistician, but the true values of param-
,
eters are secrets of nature. Our aim is to use the data inductively, to narrow down in useful
ways our ideas of what the "true" P is. The link for us are things we can compute, statistics. i
Formally, a statistic T is a map from the sample space X to some space of values T, usually I
a Euclidean space. Informally, T( x) is what we can compute if we observe X = x. Thus, i
in Example 1.1.1, the fraction defective in the sample, T(x) = x/no In Example 1.1.2 i
a cOmmon estimate of J1, is the statistic T(X 11' . 1 X n ) = X =
~ L~ I Xi, a common i
estimate of 0- 2 is the statistic
I n
8
2
= n-1 "(Xi
L - X)"
i=l

X and 8 2 are called the sample mean and sample variance. How we use statistics in esti-
mation and other decision procedures is the subject of the next section.
For future reference we note that a statistic just as a parameter need not be real or
Euclidean valued. For instance, a statistic we shall study extensively in Chapter 2 is the
~

function valued statistic F. called the empirical distribution function, which evaluated at
x E Ris
~ I
F(X .. , Xn)(x) = - L I(X
n
i < x)
" n i=l

where (X" ... , X n ) are a sample from a probability P on R and I(A) is the indicator
of the event A. This statistic takes values in the set of all distribution functions on R. It
estimates the function valued parameter F defined by its evaluation at x E R,

F(P)(x) = PIX, < xJ.


Deciding which statistics are important is closely connected to deciding which param-
eters are important and, hence, can be related to model formulation as we saw earlier. For
instance, consider situation (d) listed at the beginning of this section. If we suppose there is
a single numerical measure of performance of the drugs and the difference in performance
of the drugs for any given patient is a constant irrespective of the patient, then our attention
naturally focuses on estimating this constant If, however, this difference depends on the
patient in a complex manner (the effect of each drug is complex), we have to formulate a
relevant measure of the difference in performance of the drugs and decide how to estimate
this measure.
Often the outcome of the experiment is used to decide on the model and the appropri-
ate measure of difference. Next this model, which now depends on the data, is used to
decide what estimate of the measure of difference should be employed (ct., for example,
Mandel, 1964). Data-based model selection can make it difficult to ascenain or even assign
a meaning to the accuracy of estimates or the probability of reaChing correct conclusions.
Nevertheless, we can draw guidelines from our numbers and cautiously proceed. These
issues will be discussed further in Volume 2. In this volume we assume that the model has
Section 1.1 Data, Models, Parameters, and Statistics 9

been selected prior to the current experiment. This selection is based on experience with
previous similar experiments (cf. Lehmann, 1990),
There are also situations in which selection of what data will be observed depends on
the experimenter and on his or her methods of reaching a conclusion. For instance, in
situation (d) again, patients may be considered one at a time, sequentially, and the decision
of which drug to administer for a given patient may be made using the knowledge of what
happened to the previous patients. The experimenter may, for example, assign the drugs
alternatively to every other patient in the beginning and then, after a while, assign the drug
that seems to be working better to a higher proportion of patients, Moreover, the statistical
procedure can be designed so that the experimenter stops experimenting as soon as he or
she has significant evidence to the effect that one drug is better than the other. Thus, the
number of patients in the study (the sample size) is random. Problems such as these lie in
the fields of sequential analysis and experimental deSign. They are not covered under our
general model and will not be treated in this book. We refer the reader to Wetherill and
Glazebrook (1986) and Kendall and Stuart (1966) for more infonnation.
Notation. Regular models. When dependence on 8 has to be observed, we shall denote
the distribution corresponding to any particular parameter value 8 by Po. Expectations
calculated under the assumption that X rv P e will be written Eo. Distribution functions
will be denoted by F(, 0), density and frequency functions by p(., 0). However, these and
other subscripts and arguments will be omitted where no confusion can arise.
It will be convenient to assume(1) from now on that in any parametric model we con-
sider either:
(I) All of the P, are continuous with densities p(x, 0);
(2) All of the P e are discrete with frequency functions p(x, 8), and there exists a set
{XI,X" ... ) that is independent of 0 such that 'L':'
1 P(Xi' 0) = 1 for all O.

Such models will be called regular parametric models. In the discrete case we will use
both the tennsfrequency jimction and density for p(x, 0). See A.lO.

1.1.4 Examples. Regression Models


We end this section with two further important examples indicating the wide scope of the
notions we have introduced.
In most studies we are interested in studying relations between responses and several
other variables not just treatment or control as in Example 1.1.3. This is the Stage for the
following.
Example 1.1.4. Regression Models. We observe (ZI' Y, ), ... , (zn, Y n ) where
Y11 , Yn are independent. The distribution of the response Vi for the ith subject or case
in the study is postulated to depend on certain characteristics Zi of the ith subject. Thus,
Zi is a d dimensional vector that gives characteristics such as sex, age, height, weight, and
so On of the ith subject in a study. For instance, in Example 1.1.3 we could take z to be
the treatment label and write onr observations as (A, Xl). (A, X m ), (B, Y,), ... , (B, Yn ).
This is obviously overkill but suppose that, in the study, drugs A and B are given at several
10 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

dose levels. Then, d = 2 and zT can denote the pair (Treatment Label, Treatment Dose
Level) for patient i.
[n general, Zi is a nonrandom vector of values called a covariate vector or a vector of
explanatory variables whereas Yi is random and referred to as the response variable or
dependent variable in the sense that its distribution depends on Zi. If we let f(Yi I zd
denote the density of Yi for a subject with covariate vector Zi, then the model is
n
(a) P(YI, ... ,Yn) ~ II f(Yi I Zi).
i=l

If we let J.L(z) denote the expected value of a response with given covariate vector z, then
we can write,

(b)

where Ei = Yi - E(Yi ), i = 1, ... , n. Here J.L(z) is an unknown function from R d to R that


we are interested in. For instance, in Example 1.1.3 with the Gaussian two-sample model
I'(A) ~ 1', I'(B) = I' + fl. We usually ueed to postulate more. A eommou (but often
violated assumption) is
(I) The ti are identically distributed with distribution F. That is, the effect of z on Y
is through f.1,(z) only. In the two sample models this is implied by the constant treatment
effect assumption. See Problem 1.1.8.
On the basis of subject matter knowledge and/or convenience it is usually postulated
that
(2) 1'(z) = 9((3, z) where 9 is known except for a vector (3 = ((31, ... , I3d) T of un-
knowns. The most common choice of 9 is the linear fOlltl,
(3) g((3,z) = L.;~II3Jzj = zT (3 so that (b) becomes

(b')

This is the linear model. Often the following final assumption is made:
(4) The distributiou F of (I) is N(O, ,,2) with ,,2 uuknown. Then we have the classical
Gaussian linear model, which we can write in vector matrix form,

(c)
whereZ nxa = (zf, ... ,Z~)T and Jisthen x n identity.
Clearly, Example 1.1.3(3) is a special case of this model. So is Example 1.1.2 with
assumptions (1)-(4). In fact by varying our assumptions this class of models includes any
situation in which we have independent but not necessarily identically distributed obser-
vations. By varying the assumptions we obtain parametric models as with (I), (3) and (4)
above, semiparametric as with (I) and (2) with F arbitrary. and nonparametric if we drop
(1) and simply .treat the Zi as a label of the completely unknown distributions of Yi. Iden-
tifiability of these parametrizations and the status of their components as parameters are
discussed in the problems. 0
Section 1.1 Data, Models, Parameters, and Statistics 11

Finally, we give an example in which the responses are dependent.


Example 1.1.5. Measurement Model with Autoregressive Errors. Let
XI, ... , X n be the n determinations of a physical constant J.t. Consider the model where

Xi = J.t+ei, i = l, ... ,n

and assume
ei = {3ei-1 + i, i = 1, ... , n, eo = a
where i are independent identically distributed with density f. Here the errors el, ... , C n
are dependent as are the X's. In fact we can write

Xi ~ 1,(1 - (3) + (3X'-l + 'i, i ~ 2, ' , , ,n, Xl = I' + '1,


An example would be, say. the elapsed times X I, ... , X n spent above a fixed high level
for a series of n consecutive wave records at a point on the seashore. Let j..t = E(Xi ) be
the average time for an infinite series of records. It is plausible that ei depends on Ci-l
because long waves tend to be followed by long waves. A second example is consecutive
measurements Xi of a constant I-t made by the same observer who seeks to compensate for
apparent errors. Of course. model (a) assumes much more but it may be a reasonable first
approximation in these situations.
To find the density p(Xt, ... , x n ). we start by finding the density of CI, ... , en' Using
conditional probability theory and ei = {3ei-1 + i. we have

p(edp(C21 e1)p(e31 e"e2)",p(e" I e1, ... ,cn _d


p(edp(e2 I edp(e3 I e2) ... p(e n I en-d
f(edf(c2 - (3cd f(e n - (3e n _1).

Because i = Xi - Il. the model for X I, ... , X n is


n
P(X1, ... ,xn ) ~ f(x1 -I') II f(xj - {3Xj-1 - (1- (3)I').
j=2

The default assumption, at best an approximation for the wave example, is that J is the
N(O, 0'2) density. Then we have what is called the AR(1) Gaussian model

We include this example to illustrate that we need not be limited by independence.


However, save for a brief discussion in Volume 2, the conceptual issues of stationarity,
ergodicity, and the associated probability theory models and inference for dependent data
are beyond the scope of this book. 0
I
12 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Summary. In this section we introduced the first basic notions and formalism of mathe-
matical statistics, vector observations X with unknown probability distributions P ranging
over models P. The notions of parametrization and identifiability are introduced. The gen-
eral definition of parameters and statistics is given and the connection between parameters
and pararnetrizations elucidated. This is done in the context of a number of classical exam-
ples, the most important of which is the workhorse of statistics, the regression model. We
view statistical models as useful tools for learning from the outcomes of experiments and
studies. They are useful in understanding how the outcomes can he used to draw inferences
that go beyond the particular experiment. Models are approximations to the mechanisms
generating the observations. How useful a particular model is is a complex mix of how
good the approximation is and how much insight it gives into drawing inferences.

1.2 BAYESIAN MODELS


Throughout our discussion so far we have assumed that there is no information available
about the true value of the parameter beyond that provided by the data. There are situa-
tions in which most statisticians would agree that more can be said For instance, in the
inspection Example 1.1.1, it is possible that, in the past, we have had many shipments of
size N that have subsequently been distributed. If the customers have provided accurate
records of the number of defective items that they have found, we can construct a freq uency
distribution {1l"O,"" 1l"N} for the proportion (J of defectives in past shipments. That is, 1l"i
is the frequency of shipments with i defective items, i = 0, ... , N. Now it is reasonable to
suppose that the value of (J in the present shipment is the realization of a random variable
9 with distribution given by
I
P[O = N] = IT" i = 0, ... , N. ([.2.1)

Our model is then specified by the joint distribution of the observed number X of defectives
in the sample and the random variable 9. We know that, given 9 = i/N, X has the
hypergeometric distribution 'H( i, N, n). Thus,
I
PIX = k, 0 = N I
([.2.2)

This is an example of a Bayesian model.


There is a substantial number of statisticians who feel that it is always reasonable, and
indeed necessary, to think of the true value of the parameter (J as being the realization of a
random variable (} with a known distribution. This distribution does not always corresp:md
a
to an experiment that is physically realizable but rather is thought of as measure of the
beliefs of the experimenter concerning the true value of (J before he or she takes any data.
Section 1.2 Bayesian Models 13

Thus, the resulting statistical inference becomes subjective. The theory of this school is
expounded by L. 1. Savage (1954), Raiffa and Schlaiffer (1961), Lindley (1965), De Groot
(1969), and Berger (1985). An interesting discussion of a variety of points of view on
these questions may be found in Savage et al. (1962). There is an even greater range of
viewpoints in the statistical community from people who consider all statistical statements
as purely subjective to ones who restrict the use of such models to situations such as that
of the inspection example in which the distribution of (J has an objective interpretation in
tenus of frequencies. (1) Our own point of view is that SUbjective elements including the
views of subject matter experts arc an essential element in all model building. However,
insofar as possible we prefer to take the frequentist point of view in validating statistical
statements and avoid making final claims in terms of subjective posterior probabilities (see
later). However, by giving (J a distribution purely as a theoretical tool to which no subjective
significance is attached, we can obtain important and useful results and insights. We shall
return to the Bayesian framework repeatedly in our discussion.
In this section we shall define and discuss the basic clements of Bayesian models. Sup--
pose that we have a regular parametric model {Pe : (J E 8}. To get a Bayesian model
we introduce a random vector (J, whose range is contained in 8, with density Or frequency
function 7r. The function 7r represents our belief or information about the parameter (J be-
fore the experiment and is called the prior density or frequency function. We now think of
Pe as the conditional distribution of X given (J = (J. The joint distribution of (8, X) is
that of the outcome of a random experiment in which we first select (J = (J according to 7r
and then, given (J = (J, select X according to Pe. If both X and (J are continuous or both
are discrete, then by (B.l.3), (8, X) is appropriately continuous or discrete with density Or
frequency function,

I(O, x) = ?T(O)p(x,O). (1.2.3)

Because we now think of p(x, (J) as a conditional density or frequency function given 8 =
e, we will denote it by p(x I 0) for the remainder of this section.
Eqnation (1.2.2) is an example of (1.2.3). In the "mixed" cases such as (J continuous
X discrete, the joint distribution is neither continuous nor discrete.
The most important feature of a Bayesian model is the conditional distribution of 8
given X = x, which is called the posterior distribution of 8. Before the experiment is
performed, the information or belief about the true value of the parameter is described by
the prior distribution. After the value x has been obtained for X, the information about (J
is described by the posterior distribution.
For a concrete illustration, let us turn again to Example 1.1.1. For instance, suppose
that N = 100 and that from past experience we believe that each item has probability .1 of
being defective independently of the other members of the shipment. This would lead to
the prior distribution

?T, = ( I~O ) (0.1)'(0.9)'00-', (1.2.4)

for i = 0, 1, ... , 100. Before sampling any items the chance that a given shipment contains
II 14 Statistkal Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1
I,
20 or more bad items is by the normal approximation with continuity correction, (A 15.10),

~, I 1000 - 10 10]
,
P[IOOO > 201 = P [ ,,1100(0.1)(0.9) > ,,1100(0.1)(0.9)
(1.2.5)
'" I - <I> C3 5
) = 0.001.
.j Now suppose that a sample of 19 has been drawn in which 10 defective items are found.
.J This leads to

P[1000 > 20 I X = lOJ '" 0.30. (1.2.6)


To calculate the posterior probability given iu (1.2.6) we argue loosely as follows: If be-
fore the drawing each item was defective with probability .1 and good with probability ,9
independently of the other items, this will continue to be the case for the items left in the lot
after the 19 sample items have been drawn. Therefore, 1008 - X, the number of defectives
left after the drawing, is iudependeut of X and has a B(81, 0.1) distribution. Thus,
P[1000 > 20 I X = 10] P[IOOO - X > 10 I X = lOJ
P [(1000 - X) - 8.1 > 1.9 ]
,,181(0.9)(0.1) - ,,181(0.9)(0.1) (1.2.7)
'" I - <1>(0.52)
0.30.
In general. to calculate the posterior, some variant of Bayes' rule (B.1.4) can be used.
Specifically,
(i) The posterior distribution is discrete or continuous according as the prior distri-
bution is discrete or continuous.
(ii) If we denote the corresponding (posterior) frequency function or density by
1r(9 I x), theu
1r(9)p(x I 9)
1r(91 x) if 8 is discrete.
2...:. 1r(t)p(x I t)
( 1.2.8)
1r(9)p(x 19)
roo 1r(t)p(x I t)dt
if 8 is continuous.

In the cases where 8 and X are both continuous or both discrete this is precisely Bayes'
rule applied to the joint distribution of (0, X) given by (1.2.3). Here is an example.
Example 1.2.1. Bernoulli Trials. Suppose that Xl, ... ,Xn are indicators of n Bernoulli
trials with probability of success () where 0 < 8 < 1. If we assume that 8 has a priori
distribution with deusity 1r, we obtain by (1.2.8) as posterior density of 0, ,
1r(9)9k (1 _ 9)n-k
(1.2.9)
1r(Blx" ... ,xn )= Jo'1r(t)t k (l-t)n- k dt
I
,
Section 1.2 Bayesian Models 15

L:
for 0 < () < 1, Xi = 0 or 1, 'i = 1, ... ,n, k =
1
I Xi
Note that the posterior density depends on the data only through the total number of
successes, L~ 1 Xi' We also obtain the same posterior density if B has prior density 1r and
we only observe L7 1 Xi. which has a B( n, 8) distribution given B = () (Problem 1.2.9).
We can thus write 1[(8 I k) fo",(8 I X" ... , x n ), where k ~ l:~ I Xj.
To choose a prior 11', we need a class of distributions that concentrate on the interval
(0,1). One such class is the two-parameter beta family. This class of distributions has the
remarkable property that the resulting posterior distributions arc again beta distributions.
Specifically, upon substituting the (3(r, s) density (B.2.ll) in (1.2.9) we obtain

(}k+r-l (1 _ 8)n-k+s-1
(1.2.10)
c

The proportionality constant c, which depends on k, r, and s only, must (see (B.2.11 be
B(k + T, n - k + s) where B(,) is the beta function, and the posterior distribution of B
givenl:X i =kis{3(k+r,n-k+s).
As Figure B.2.2 indicates, the beta family provides a wide variety of shapes that can
approximate many reasonable prior distributions though by no means all. For instance,
non-V-shaped bimodal distributions are not pennitted.
Suppose, for instance, we are interested in the proportion () of "geniuses" (IQ > 160)
in a particular city. To get infonnation we take a sample of n individuals from the city. If
n is small compared to the size of the city, (A.15.13) leads us to assume that the number
X of geniuses observed has approximately a 8(n,8) distribution. Now we may either
have some information about the proportion of geniuses in similar cities of the country
or we may merely have prejudices that we are willing to express in the fonn of a prior
distribution on B. We may want to assume that B has a density with maximum value at
o such as that drawn with a dotted line in Figure B.2.2. Or else we may think that 1[(8)
concentrates its mass near a small number, say 0.05. Then we can choose r and s in the
(3(r,s) distribution, so that the mean is r/(r + s) = 0.05 and its variance is very small.
The result might be a density such as the one marked with a solid line in Figure B.2.2.
If we were interested in some proportion about which we have no information or belief,
we might take B to be uniformly distributed on (0, 1), which corresponds to using the beta
distribution with r = ,<; = 1. 0

A feature of Bayesian models exhibited by this example is that there are natural para-
metric families of priors such that the posterior distributions also belong to this family.
Such families are called conjugaU? Evidently the beta family is conjugate to the bino-
mial. Another bigger conjugate family is that of finite mixtures of beta distributions-see
Problem 1.2.16. We return to conjugate families in Section 1.6.

Summary. We present an elementary discussion of Bayesian models, introduce the notions


of prior and posterior distributions and give Bayes rule. We also by example introduce the
notion of a conjugate family of distributions.
16 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

1.3 THE DECISION THEORETIC FRAMEWORK


I
,

Given a statistical model, the information we want to draw from data can be put in various
forms depending on the purposes of our analysis. We may wish to produce "best guesses"
of the values of important parameters, for instance, the fraction defective B in Example
1.1.1 or the physical constant J.L in Example 1.1.2. These are estimation problems. In other
situations certain P are "special" and we may primarily wish to know whether the data
support "specialness" or not. For instance, in Example 1.1.3, P's that correspond to no
treatment effect (i.e., placebo and treatment are equally effective) are special because the
FDA (Food and Drug Administration) does not wish to pennit the marketing of drugs that
do no good. If J.lo is the critical matter density in the universe so that J.l < J.lo means the
universe is expanding forever and J.l > JkO correspond to an eternal alternation of Big Bangs
and expansions, then depending on one's philosophy one could take either P's correspond-
ing to J.l < Jio or those corresponding to J.l > J.lo as special. Making detenninations of
"specialness" corresponds to testing significance. As the second example suggests, there
are many problems of this type in which it's unclear which oftwo disjoint sets of P's; Po
or Pg is special and the general testing problem is really one of discriminating between
Po and Po. For instance, in Example 1.1.1 contractual agreement between shipper and re-
ceiver may penalize the return of "good" shipments, say, with (J < (Jo, whereas the receiver
does not wish to keep "bad," (} > Bo, shipments. Thus, the receiver wants to discriminate
and may be able to attach monetary Costs to making a mistake of either type: "keeping
the bad shipment" or "returning a good shipment." In testing problems we, at a first cut,
state which is supported by the data: "specialness" or, as it's usually called, "hypothesis" i,
or "nonspecialness" (or alternative).
We may have other goals as illustrated by the next two examples.
i
Example 1.3.1. Ranking. A consumer organization preparing (say) a report on air condi-
tioners tests samples of several brands. On the basis of the sample outcomes the organiza-
tion wants to give a ranking from best to worst of the brands (ties not pennitted). Thus, if
there are k different brands, there are k! possible rankings or actions, one of which will be
announced as more consistent with the data than others. 0
Example 1.3.2. Prediction. A very important class of situations arises when, as in Example
1.1.4, we have a vector z, such as, say, (age, sex, drug dose) T that can be used for prediction
of a variable of interest Y. say a 50-year-old male patient's response to the level of a
drug. Intuitively, and as we shall see fonnally later, a reasonable prediction rule for an
unseen Y (response of a new patient) is the function {t(z). the expected value of Y given
z, Unfortunately {t(z) is unknown. However, if we have observations (Zil Yi), 1 < i < n.
we can try to estimate the function 1'0. For instance, if we believe I'(z) = g((3, z) we
can estimate (3 from our observations Y; of g((3, Zi) and then plug our estimate of (3 into g,
Note that we really want to estimate the function Ji(')~ our results will guide the selection
of doses of drug for future patients. 0
In all of the situations we have discussed it is clear that the analysis does not stop by
specifying an estimate or a test or a ranking or a prediction function. There are many pos-
sible choices of estimates. In Example 1.1.1 do we use the observed fraction of defectives
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 17

X/n as our estimate or ignore the data and use hislOrical infonnation on past shipments,
or combine them in some way? In Example 1.1.2 lO estimate J1 do we use the mean of
the measurements, X = ~ L~-l Xi, or the median, defined as any value such that half
the Xi are at least as large and half no bigger? The same type of question arises in all
examples. The answer will depend on the model and, most significantly, on what criteria
of performance we use. Intuitively, in estimation we care how far off we are, in testing
whether we are right or wrong, in ranking what mistakes we've made, and so on. In any
case, whatever our choice of procedure we need either a priori (before we have looked at
the data) and/or a posteriori estimates of how well we're doing. In designing a study to
compare treatments A and B we need to determine sample sizes that will be large enough
to enable us to detect differences that matter. That is, we need a priori estimates of how
well even the best procedure can do. For instance, in Example 1.1.3 even with the simplest
Gaussian model it is intuitively clear and will be made precise later that, even if.6. is large,
a large a 2 will force a large m l n to give us a good chance of correctly deciding that the
treatment effect is there. On the other hand, once a study is carried out we would probably
want not only to estimate ~ but also know how reliable our estimate is. Thus, we would
want a posteriori estimates of perfomlance.
These examples motivate the decision theoretic framework: We need to
(I) clarify the objectives of a study,
(2) point to what the different possible actions are,
(3) provide assessments of risk, accuracy, and reliability of statistical procedures,
(4) provide guidance in the choice of procedures for analyzing outcomes of experi-
ments.

1,3.1 Components of the Decision Theory Framework


As in Section 1.1, we begin with a statistical model with an observation vector X whose
distribution P ranges over a set P. We usnally take P to be parametrized, P = {P, : 0 E
8).
Action space. A new component is an action space A of actions or decisions or claims
that we can contemplate making. Here are action spaces for our examples.
Estimation. If we are estimating a real parameter such as the fraction () of defectives, in
Example 1.1.1, or p, in Example 1.1.2, it is natural to take A = R though smaller spaces
may serve equally well, for instance, A = {O, ~ 1 l I} in Example 1.1.1.
Testing. Here only two actions are contemplated: accepting or rejecting the "specialness"
of P (or in more usual language the hypothesis H : P E Po in which we identify Po with
the set of "special" P's). By convention. A = {a, I} with 1 corresponding to rejection of
H. Thus, in Example 1.1.3, taking action 1 would mean deciding that D. # 0.
Ranking. Here quite naturally A = {Permntations (i I , ... , ik) of {I, ... , k}}. Thus, if we
have three air conditioners, there are 3! = 6 possible rankings,

A = {( 1, 2, 3), (1, 3, 2), (2, 1, 3), (2, 3, 1), (3, 1, 2), (3, 2, I)}.
18 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Prediction. Here A is much larger. [f Y is real, and z E Z, A = {a ; a is a function from


Z to R} with a(z) representing the prediction we would make if the new unobserved Y
had covariate value z. Evidently Y could itself range over an arbitrary space Y and then R
would be replaced by Y in the definition of a(). For instance, if Y = 0 or 1 corresponds
to, say, "does not respond" and "responds," respectively, and z = (Treatment, Sex)T, then
a(B, M) would be our prediction of response or no response for a male given treatment B.
Loss function. Far more important than the choice of action space is the choice of loss
function defined as a function I : P X A ~ R+. The interpretation of I(P, a), or 1(0, a)
if P is parametrized, is the nonnegative loss incurred by the statistician if he or she takes
action a and the true "state of Nature," that is, the probability distribution producing the
data, is P. As we shall see, although loss functions, as the name suggests, sometimes can
genuinely be quantified in economic terms, they usually are chosen to qualitatively reflect
what we are trying to do and to be mathematically convenient.

Estimation. In estimating a real valued parameter v(P) or q(6') if P is parametrized the


most commonly used loss function is,

Quadratic Loss: I(P, a) = (v(P) - a)2 (or I(O,a) ~ (q(O) - a)2).

Other choices that are, as we shall see (Section 5.1), less computationally convenient but
perhaps more realistically penalize large errors less are Absolute Value Loss: l(P; a) =
[v( P) - ai, and truncated quadraticloss: I(P, a) = min {(v( P) - a)2, d'}. Closely related
to the latter is what we shall call confidence interval loss, I(P, a) = 0, [v(P) - al < d,
,, l( P, a) = 1 otherwise. This loss expresses the notion that all errors within the limits d are
tolerable and outside these limits equally intolerable. Although estimation loss functions
I' are typically symmetric in v and a, asymmetric loss functions can also be of importance.
r
For instance, l(P, a) = l(v < a), which penalizes only overestimation and by the same
" amount arises naturally with lower confidence bounds as discussed in Example 1.3.3.
If v ~ (V1, .. ' ,Vd) = (q1(0), ... ,qd(lJ)) and a ~ (a""" ad) are vectors, examples
of loss functions are

I
1(0, a) d 2:)a; - V;)2 = squared Euclidean distance/d

1(0, a) ~ 2.: la; - Vj [ = absolute distance/d

1(0, a) max{laj - vjl.i = 1, ... 1 d} = supremum distance.

We can also consider function valued parameters. For instance, in the prediction exam-
ple 1.3.2, 1'(-) is the parameter of interest. If we use a() as a predictor and the new z has
marginal distribution Q then it is natural to consider,
r
I I(P, a) = J (I'(z) - a(z))2dQ(z),

the expected squared error if a is used. If, say, Q is the empirical distribution of the Zj in
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 19

the training set (Z 1, Y), ... , (Zn, Y n), this leads to the commonly considered
I n
I(P,a) =- L(I'(Zj) _0(Z,))2,
n.
]=1

which is just n- 1 times the squared Euclidean distance between the prediction vector
(a(z,), ... , a(zn) jT and the vector parameter (I'( z,), ... ,1'(zn))T
Testing. We ask whether the parameter () is in the subset 6 0 or subset 8 1 of e, where
{So, ed, e
is a partition of (or equivalently if P E Po or P E P,), If we take action
a when the parameter is in ea.we have made the correct decision and the loss is zero,
Otherwise, the decision is wrong and the loss is taken to equal one. This 0 - 1 loss function
can be written as
0- I loss: /(8, a) ~ 0 if 8 E e a (The decision is correct)
l(0, a) = 1 otherwise (The decision is wrong).
Of course, other economic loss functions may be appropriate. For instance, in Example
1.1.1 suppose returning a shipment with <
00 defectives results in a penalty of s dol-
lars whereas every defective item sold results in an r dollar replacement cost. Then the
appropriate loss function is
1(8, I) sif8<80
1(8, I) Oif8 > 80 (1.3.1)
/(8,0) rN8.

Decision procedures. We next give a representation of the process Whereby the statistician
uses the data to arrive at a decision. The data is a point X = x in the outcome or sample
a
space X. We define a decision rule or procedure to be any function from the sample
space taking its values in A. Using 0 means that if X = x is observed, the statistician takes
action o(x).
Estimation. For the problem of estimating the constant IJ.. in the measurement model, we
implicitly discussed two estimates or decision rules: 61 (x) = sample mean x and 02(X) =
X = sample median.
Testing. In Example 1.1.3 with X and Y distributed as N(I' + ~,,,2) and N(I',,,2),
respectively, if we are asking whether the treatment effect p'!1'ameter 6. is a or not. then a
reasonable rule is to decide Ll = 0 if our estimate x - y is close to zero, and to decide
Ll '# a if our estimate is not close to zero. Here we mean close to zero relative to the
variability in the experiment, that is, relative to the standard deviation a. In Section 4.9.3
we will show how to obtain an estimate (j of a from the data. The decision rule can now
be written

o(x, y) = o if Ix::: 111 (J


<c
(1.3.2)
I if Ix ~ 111 >c
(J
20 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

where c is a positive constant called the critical value. How do we choose c? We need the
next concept of the decision theoretic framework, the risk or riskfunction:
The risk function. If d is the procedure used, 1 is the loss function, () is the true value of
the parameter, and X = x is the outcome of the experiment, then the loss is l(P, fJ(x)).
We do not know the value of the loss because P is unknown. Moreover, we typically want
procedures to have good properties not at just one particular x, but for a range of plausible
xs. Thus, we turn to the average or mean loss over the sample space. That is, we regard
I(P, 6 (x)) as a random variable and introduce the riskfunction
R(P,6) = Ep[I(P, 6(X)]
as the measure of the perfonnance of the decision rule o(x). Thus, for each 8. R maps P or
e to R+. R('ld) is our a priori measure of the performance of d. We illustrate computation
of R and its a priori use in some examples.
Estimation. Suppose v _ v(P) is the real parameter we wish to estimate and v=
fJ(X)
is our estimator (our decision rule). If we use quadratic loss, our risk function is called the
mean squared error (MSE) of;; and is given by
MSE{fl) = R(P, fi) = Ep(fi(X) - v(P))' (1.3.3)
where for simplicity dependence on P is suppressed in MSE.
The MSE depends on the variance of fJ and on what is called the bias ofv where
= E{fl) - v
Bias(fi)
can be thought of as the "long-run average error" of v. A useful result is
Proposition 1.3.1.
MSE(fi) = (Bias fi)' + Var(v).
I,
Proof. Write the error as
1
(fi - v) = [V - E(fi)] + [E(v) - 1'].
If we expand the square of the right-hand side keeping the brackets intact and take the
expected value, the cross term will he zero because E[fi - E(fi)] = O. The other two terms
are (Bias fi)' and Var(v). (If one side is infinite, so is the other and the result is trivially
true.) 0
We next illustrate the computation and the a priori and a posteriori use of the risk
function.
Example 1.3.3. Estimation of IJ.. (Continued). Suppose Xl, ... , X n are i.i.d. measurements
of IJ.. withN(O, (]"2) errors. lfwe use the mean X as our estimate of IJ.. and assume quadratic
loss, then
Bias(X)
1 n ,
Var(X) - " Var(X;) =
2L ~
n n
i=l
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 21

and, by Proposition 1.3.1


2
MSE(X) = R(I",a 2 ,X) = "--, (1.3.4)
n
which doesn't depend on J.t.
Suppose that the precision of the measuring instrument cr2 is known and equal to crJ or
where realistically it is known to be < crJ. Then (1.3.4) can be used for an a priori estimate
of the risk of X. If we want to be guaranteed MSE(X) < 2 we can do it by taking at
least no = <:TolE measurements.
If we have no idea of the value of 0- 2 , planning is not possible but having taken n
measurements we can then estimate 0- 2, for instance by 8 2 = ~ L~ l(X i - X)2, or
na 21(n - 1). an estimate we can justify later. The a posteriori estimate of risk (j2/n is, of
course, itself subject to random error.
Suppose that instead of quadratic loss we used the more natural(l) absolute value loss.
Then

R(I", a', X) = EIX - 1"1 ~ Eill


where , = X, - 1". If, as we assumed, the , areN(O, ( 2
) then by (A 13.23), (,fii/a)[ ~
N(o, 1) and

R(I",a
2- a
,X) =,fii
1 00
af2
-00 Itl<p(t)dt = ,fii V;. (1.3.5)

This harder calculation already suggests why quadratic loss is really favored. If we only
assume, as we discussed in Example 1.1.2, that the E:i are i.i.d. with mean 0 and variance
a 2 (P), then for quadratic loss, R( P, X) = a' (P) / n still, but for absolute value loss only
approximate, analytic, or numerical and/or Monte Carlo computation, is possible. In fact,
computational difficulties arise even with quadratic loss as soon as we think of estimates
-
other than X. For instance, if X
~

=rnedian(X 1 , ... ,Xn ) (and we, in general, write for a


a median of {aI, ... , an}), E(i - 1")' ~ E(~) can only be evaluated numerically (see
Problem 1.3.6), or approximated asymptotically. 0
We next give an example in which quadratic loss and the breakup of MSE given in
Proposition 1.3.1 is useful for evaluating the performance of competing estimators.
Example 1.3.4. Let flo denote the mean of a certain measurement included in the U.S.
census, say, age or income. Next suppose we are interested in the mean fl of the same
measurement for a certain area of the United States. If we have no data for area A, a
natural guess for fl would be flo, whereas if we have a random sample of measurements
X" X 2, ... 1 X n from area A, we may wantto combine tLo and X = n -1 L~ 1 Xi into an
estimator. for instance,

Ii ~ (0.2)1"0 + (O.8)X.
The choice of the weights 0.2 and 0.8 can only be made on the basis of additional knowl-
edge about demography or the economy. We shall derive them in Section 1.6 through a
I, 22 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

i formal Bayesian analysis using a nonnal prior to illustrate a way of bringing in additional
knowledge. Here we compare the performances of Ii and X as estimators of J-l using MSE.
We easily find

Bias(ii) 0.21'0+ 0.81' - I' = 0.2(1'0 - 1')


Yar(ii) (0.8)'Yar(X) = (.64)0" In

R(I', iiJ MSE(ii) = .04(1'0 - 1')' + (.64)0" In.

If I' is close to 1'0, the risk R(I', Ii) of ii is smaller than the risk R(I', X) = 0" In of X with
the minimum relative risk inf{MSE(ii)IMSE(X); I' E R} being 0.64 when I' = 1'0.
Figure 1.3.1 gives the graphs of MSE(ii) and MSE(X) as functions of 1'. Because we
do not know the value of fL, using MSE, neither estimator can be proclaimed as being better
than the other. However, if we use as our criteria the maximum (over p,) ofthe MSE (called
the minimax criteria), then X is optimal (Example 3.3.4).

MSE(ii)

MSE(X)

i
,
I,

Figure 1.3.1. The mean squared errdrs of X and ji. The two MSE curves cross at
I' ~ 1'0 30'1 ,;n.

Testing. The test rule (1.3.2) for deciding between i'> = 0 and i'> i 0 can only take on the
two values 0 and 1; thus, the risk is

R(i'>,6) = 1(i'>,0)P[6(X, Y) = 01 + lei'>, I)P[6(X, Y) = IJ,


which in the case of 0 - 1 loss is
R(i'>,6) P[6(X, Y) = I] if i'> = 0
P[6(X, Y) = 01 if i'> i O.
e
In the general case X and denote the outcome and parameter space, respectively, and we
e e
are to decide whether E 80 or E 8 where 8 = 8 0 U 8 8 0 n 8 , = 0. A test
" "
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 23

function is a decision rule <5(X) that equals 1 On a set C C X called the critical region
and equals 0 on the complement of C; that is, 6(X) = IIX E C], where 1 denotes the
e
indicator function. If <5(X) = 1 and we decide 8 E 8 1 when in fact E 80, we call the
error committed a Type I error, whereas if <5(X) = 0 and we decide () E 80 when in fact
8 E 8 b we call the error a Type II error. Thus, the risk of <5(X) is
R(8,6) E(6(X)) ~ P(6(X) ~ I) if8 E 8 0
Probability of Type [error
(1.3.6)
R(8,6) P(6(X) = 0) if 8 E 8 1
Probability of Type II error.
Finding good test functions corresponds to finding critical regions with smaIl probabilities
of error. [n the Neyman-Pearson framework of statistical hypothesis testing, the focus is
on first providing a small bound, say .05, on the probability of Type I error, and then trying
to minimize the probability of a Type II error. For instance, in the treatments A and B
example, we want to start by limiting the probability of falsely proclaiming one treatment
superior to the other (deciding ~ =1= 0 when ~ = 0), and then next look for a procedure
with low probability of proclaiming no difference if in fact one treatment is superior to the
other (deciding Do = 0 when Do 0).
This is not the only approach to testing. For instance, the loss function (1.3.1) and
tests 15k of the fonn, "Reject the shipment if and only if X > k," in Example 1.1.1 lead to
(Prohlem 1.3.18).
R(8,8) sP.IX > k] + rN8P.[X < k[, 8 < 80
(1.3.7)
rN8P.[X < k], 8 > 80 ,

Confidence Bounds and Intervals


Decision theory enables us to think clearly about an important hybrid of testing and
estimation, confidence bounds and intervals (and more generally regions). Suppose our
primary interest in an estimation type of problem is to give an upper bound for the param-
eter v. For instance, an accounting finn examining accounts receivable for a finn on the
basis of a random sample of accounts would be primarily interested in an upper bound on
the total amount owed. If (say) X represents the amount owed in the sample and v is the
unknown total amount owed, it is natural to seek v(X) such that

P[v(X) > vi > 1- a (1.3.8)

for all possible distrihutions P of X. Such a v is called a (1 - a) upper coofidence houod


on v. Here a is small, usually .05 or .01 or less. This corresponds to an a priori bound
on the risk of a on v(X) viewed as a decision procedure with action space R and loss
function,
I(P,o) 0, a > v(P)
I, a < v(P)
24 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

an asymmetric estimation type loss function. The 0- 1 nature makes it resemble a testing
loss function and, as we shall see in Chapter 4, the connection is close. It is clear, though,
1, thai this fonnulation is inadequate because by taking D 00 we can achieve risk O.=
What is missing is the fact that, though upper bounding is the primary goal, in fact it is
important to get close to the truth-knowing that at most 00 doJlars are owed is of no use.
The decision theoretic framework accommodates by adding a component reflecting this.
For instance
I(P,a) - a~v(P) ,a>v(P)
- c ,a<v(P),

..~1,
for some constant c > O. Typically, rather than this Lagrangian form, it is customary to first
fix a in (1.3.8) and then see what one can do to control (say) R( P, Ii) = E(Ii(X) -v(P))+,
where x+ = xl(x > 0).
The same issue arises when we are interested in a confidence interval ~(X) l v(X) 1for
v defined by the requirement that

P[v(X) < v(P) < Ii(X)] > 1 - a


1 for all PEP. We shall go into this further in Chapter 4.
We next tum to the final topic of this section, general criteria for selecting "optimal"
procedures.

1.3.2 Comparison of Decision Procedures


;:
In this section we introduce a variety of concepts used in the comparison of decision proce-
dures. We shall illustrate some of the relationships between these ideas using the following
e
simple example in which has two members, A has three points. and the risk of all possi-
ble decision procedures can be computed and plotted. We conclude by indicating to what
extent the relationships suggested by this picture carry over to the general decision theoretic
model.
Example 1.3.5. Suppose we have two possible states of nature, which we represent by Bl
and B2 . For instance, a component in a piece of equipment either works or does not work; a
certain location either contains oil or does not; a patient either has a certain disease or does
not, and so on. Suppose that three possible actions. aJ, a2, and a3, are available. In the
context of the foregoing examples, we could leave the component in, replace it. or repair it;
we could drill for oil. sell the location, or sell partial rights; we could operate, administer
drugs. or wait and see. Suppose the following loss function is decided on

TABLE 1.3.1. The loss function I(B, a)


,,
(Drill) (Sell) (Partial rights) I
aj a2 a3 I
(Oil) Bj 0 10 5
(No oil) B2 12 I 6 \
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 25

Thus, if there is oil and we drill, the loss is zero, whereas if there is no oil and we drill,
the loss is 12, and so on. Next, an experiment is conducted to obtain information about
B resulting in the random variable X with possible values coded as 0, 1, and frequency
function p(x, B) given by the following table
TABLE 1.3.2. The frequency function p(x, e,); i = 1,2
Rock formation
x
o I
(Oil) e, 0.3 0.7
(No oil) B2 0.6 0.4
Thus, X may represent a certain geological formation, and when there is oil, it is known
that formation 0 occurs with frequency 0.3 and formation 1 with frequency 0.7, whereas if
there is no oil, formations 0 and 1 occur with frequencies 0.6 and 0.4. We list all possible
decision rules in the following table.
TABLE 1.3.3. Possible decision rules 5i (x)
,
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
x=O a, a, a, a2 a, a, a3 a3 a3
x=1 a, a, a3 a, a, a3 a, a2 a3
Here, 01 represents "Take action Ul regardless of the value of X," 02 corresponds to
''Take action Ul> if X = 0; take action U2, if X = 1," and so on.
The risk of 5 at B is
R(B,5) E[I(B,5(X))]= I(B, a.)P[5(X) = ad
+1(B,a2)P[5(X) ~ a2] + I(B,a3)P[5(X) = a3]'
For instance,
R(B" 52) 0(0.3)+ 10(0.7) = 7
R(B2 ,52 ) 12(0.6) + 1(0.4) ~ 7.6.
e
If is finite and has k members, we can represent the whole risk function of a procedure 0
by a point in k-dimensional Euclidean space, (R(O" 5), ... , R(B k , 5)) and if k = 2 we can
plot the set of all such points obtained by varying 5. The risk points (R(B" 5;), R(025;))
are given in Table 1.3.4 and graphed in Figure 1.3.2 for i = 1, ... 1 9.
TABLE 1.3.4. Risk points (R(B 5.), R(B2, 5.))
"
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
R(B , ,5;) 0 7 3.5 3 10 6.5 1.5 8.5 5
R(B,,5;) 12 7.6 9.6 5.4 1 3 8.4 4.0 6
It remains to pick out the rules that are "good" or "best." Criteria for doing this will be
introduced in the next subsection. 0
26 Statistical Models. Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

R(8 2 ,S,)
I

10 3
.7
.2
.9
.4
5
.8
.6

.5
0
0 5 10 R(8 j ,Si)

Figure 1.3.2. The risk points (R(8 j , Si), R( 8" Si)). i = 1, ... ,9.

1.3.3 Bayes and Minimax Criteria


The difficulties of comparing decision procedures have already been discussed in the spe-
cial contexts of estimation and testing. We say that a procedure <5 improves a procedure Of
if. and only if,
R(8,S) < R(8,S')
for all () with strict inequality for some (). It is easy to see that there is typically no rule
e5 that improves all others. For instance, in estimating () E R when X '"'-' N((), a5), if we
- -
ignore the data and use the estimate () = 0, we obtain M SE(O) = (}2. The absurd rule
"S'(X) = 0" cannot be improved on at the value 8 ~ 0 because Eo(S'(X)) = 0 ifand only
if O(X) = O. Usually, if J and 8' are two rules, neither improves the other. Consider, for
instance, S. and S6 in our example. Here R(8 S.) < R( 8" S6) but R( 8" S.) > R( 8" S6)'
The problem of selecting good decision "procedures has been attacked in a variety of
ways.

(1) Narrow classes of procedures have been proposed using criteria such as con-
, siderations of symmetry, unbiasedness (for estimates and tests), or level of sig-
i nificance (for tests). Researchers have then sought procedures that improve all
others within the class. We shall pursue this approach further in Chapter 3. Ex-
tensions of unbiasedness ideas may be found in Lehmann (1997, Section 1.5).
Symmetry (or invariance) restrictions are discussed in Ferguson (1967).

(2) A second major approach has been to compare risk functions by global crite-
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 27

ria rather than on a pointwise basis. We shall discuss the Bayes and minimax
criteria.
Bayes: The Bayesian point of view leads to a natural global criterion. Recall that in
the Bayesian model () is the realization of a random variable or vector () and that Pe is the
conditional distribution of X given 0 ~ O. In this framework R(O, 0) isjust E[I(O, O(X)) I
() = ()], the expected loss, if we use <5 and () = (). If we adopt the Bayesian point of view,
we need not stop at this point, but can proceed to calculate what we expect to lose on the
average as () varies. This quantity which we shall call the Bayes risk of <5 and denote r( <5)
is then, given by
reo) = E[R(O,o)] = E[I(O,o(x))]. (1.3.9)
The second preceding identity is a consequence of the double expectation theorem (B.I.20)
in Appendix B.
To illustrate, suppose that in the oil drilling example an expert thinks the chance of
finding oil is .2. Then we treat the parameter as a random variable () with possible values
()1, ()2 and frequency function

1I(OIl = 0.2, 11(0,) ~ 0.8.


The Bayes risk of <5 is, therefore,
r( 0) ~ 0.2R(0, ,0) + 0.8R(0,,0). (1.3.10)
Table 1.3.5 gives r( 0,), ... , r( 09) specified by (1.3.9).
TABLE 1.3.5. Bayes and maximum risks oftbe procedures of Table 1.3.3.
, I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
r(o,) 9.6 7.48 8.38 4.92 2.8 3.7 7.02 4.9 5.8
maxi R(0" Oil, R(0" Oi)) 12 7.6 9.6 5.4 10 6.5 8.4 8.5 6
In the Bayesian framework 0 is preferable to <5' if, and only if, it has smaller Bayes risk.
If there is a rule <5*, which attains the minimum Bayes risk l that is, such that
r(o") = minr(o)

then it is called a Bayes rule. From Table 1.3.5 we see that rule 05 is the unique Bayes rule
for our prior.
The method of computing Bayes procedures by listing all available <5 and their Bayes
risk is impracticable in general. We postpone the consideration of posterior analysis, the
only reasonable computational method, to Section 3.2.
Note that the Bayes approach leads us to compare procedures on the basis of,
reo) = EoR(O, 0)11(0),
if () is discrete with frequency function 'Tr(e), and

reo) = J R(O,o)1I(O)dO,
28 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

if (J is continuous with density rr(8). Such comparisons make sense even if we do not
interpret 1r as a prior density or frequency. but only ac; a weight function for averaging
the values of the function R( B, 6). For instance, in Example 1.3.5 we might feel that both
values ofthe risk were equally important. It is then natural to compare procedures using the
simple average ~ [R( fh 10) + R( fh, 8)]. But this is just Bayes comparison where 1f places
equal probability on f}r and ()2.
Minimax: Instead of averaging the risk as the Bayesian does we can look at the worst
possible risk. This is, we prefer 0" to 0"'. if and only if,

,
sup R(O. J)
,
< sup R(O, J').

A procedure 0*, which has

,
supR(O,J') = infsupR(O,J),
; ,
is called minimax (minimizes the maximum risk).
The criterion comes from the general theory of two-person zero sum games of von
Neumann.(2) We briefly indicate "the game of decision theory." Nature (Player I) picks a
point 8 E e independently of the statistician (Player II), who picks a decision procedure
J from V, the sel of all decision procedures. Player II then pays Player I. R(O, J). The
maximum risk of 0* is the upper pure value of the game.
This criterion of optimality is very conservative. It aims to give maximum protection
against the worst that can happen, Nature's choosing a 8, which makes the risk as large as
possible. The principle would be compelling, if the statistician believed that the parameter
value is being chosen by a malevolent opponent who knows what decision procedure will
be used. Of course, Nature's intentions and degree of foreknowledge are not that clear and
most statisticiaqs find the minimax principle too conservative to employ as a general rule.
Nevertheless l in many cases the principle can lead to very reasonable procedures.
To illustrate computation of the minimax rule we tum to Table 1.3.4. From the listing
ofmax(R(O" J), R(02, J)) we see that J 4 is minimax with a maximum risk of 5.4.
Students of game theory will realize at this point that the statistician may be able to
lower the maximum risk without requiring any further information by using a random
mechanism to determine which rule to emplOy. For instance, suppose that, in Example
1.3.5, we toss a fair coin and use 04 if the coin lands heads and 06 otherwise. Our expected
risk would be,

4.75 if 0 = 0,

4.20 if 0 = O2 .

The maximum risk 4.75 is strictly less than that of 04.


I
Randomized decision rules: In general, if V is the class of all decision procedures
(nonrandomized), a randomized decision procedure can be thought of as a random experi-
ment whose outcomes are members of V. For simplicity we shall discuss only randomized
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 29

procedures that select among a finite set (h 1 , l5q of nOn randomized procedures. If the
randomized procedure l5 selects l5i with probability Ai, i = 1 , ... 1 q. Ei==l Al = 1, we then
define
q
R(O,J) ~ L.\;R(O,J;). (1.3.11)
i=l

Similarly we can define, given a prior 7r on e, the Bayes risk of l5


q

r(J) = LAiEIR(IJ,Ji )] (1.3.12)


i=l

A randomized Bayes procedure d.. . minimizes r(d) anwng all randomized procedures. A
randomized minimax procedure minimizes maxa R(8,d) anwng all randomized proce-
dures.
We now want to study the relations between randomized and nonrandomized Bayes and
minimax procedures in the context of Example 1.3.5. We will then indicate how much of
what we learn carries over to the general case. As in Example 1.3.5. we represent the risk
of any procedure J by the vector (R( 01 , J), R(O2 , J)) and consider the risk sel
S = {(RrO"J),R(02,J): J E V'}
where V* is the set of all procedures, including randomiZed ones.
By (1.3.10),

S= {(rI,r2):r, = ~A;R(OI,Ji)' r2 = tAiR(02,J;), Ai >0, ~Ai=1}.


That is, S is the convex hull of the risk points (R(0" Ji ), R(O2 , Ji )), i = 1, ... , 9 (Figure
1.3.3).
If ,,(0 d = i = 1 - ,,(02 ), 0 < i < 1, then all rules having Bayes risk c correspond to
points in S that lie on the line
irl + (1 - i)r2 = c. (1.3.13)
As c varies, (1.3.13) defines a family of parallel lines with slope -i/(1 - r). Finding the
Bayes rule corresponds to finding the smallest c for which the line (1.3.13) intersects S.
This is thai line with slope - i/ (1 - 'Y) that is tangent to S al the lower boundary of S. All
points of S that are on the tangent are Bayes. TWo cases arise:
(I) The tangent has a unique point of contact with a risk point corresponding to a
nonrandomized rule. For instance, when ~ = 0.2, this point is (10,1), which is
the risk point of the Bayes rule Js (see Figure 1.3.3).
(2) The tangent is the line connecting two unonrandomized" risk points Ji , Jj . A
point (Tl, T2) on this line can be written

AR(O"Ji ) + (1- A)R(O"Jj ),


(1.3.14)
AR(02, Ji ) + (1 - A)R(02, Jj ),
30 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

r2 I

10

Q(c')

o
o 5 10

Figure 1.3.3. The convex hull S of the risk poiots (R(B!, oil, R(B2 , (\)), i = 1, ... ,9.
The point where the square Q( c') defined by (1.3.16) touches S is the risk point of the
minimax rule.

where 0 < >. < 1, and, thus, by (1.3.11) corresponds to the values
Oi with probability>.
(1.3.15)
OJ with probability (1 - >'), 0 < >. < 1.
Each one of these rules, as >. ranges from 0 to 1, is Bayes against 7I". We can
choose two nonrandomized Bayes rules from this class, namely Oi (take'\ = 1)
and OJ (take>. = 0).

Because changing the prior 1r corresponds to changing the slope -,/(1 - )') of the
line given by (1.3.13), the set B of all risk points corresponding to procedures Bayes with
respect to some prior is just the lower left boundary of S (Le. all points on the lowet
boundary of S that have as tangents the y axis or lines with nonpositive slopes).
To locate the risk point of the nilhimax rule consider the family of squares.

(1.3.16)

whose diagonal is the line r, = r2. Let c' be the srr!~llest c for which Q(c) n S i 0 (i.e.,
the first square that touches S). Then Q( c*) n S is either a point or a horizontal or vertical
line segment. See Figure 1.3.3. It is the set of risk points of minimax rules because any
point with smaller maximum risk would belong to Q(c) n S with c < c* contradicting the
choice of c*. In our example, the first point of contact between the squares and S is the
Section 1.3 The Decision Theoretic Framework 31

intersection between TI = T2 and the line connecting the two points corresponding to <54
and <56 . Thus. the minimax rule is given by (1.3.14) with i = 4, j = 6 and .\ the solution of

From Table 1.3.4, this equation becomes

3,\ + 6.5(1 - ,\) = 5.4'\ + 3(1 - ,\),

which yields ,\ ~ 0.59.


There is another important concept that we want to discuss in the context of the risk
set. A decision rule <5 is said to be inadmissible if there exists another rule <5' such that
<5' improves <5. Naturally, all rules that are not inadmissible are called admissible. Using
Table 1.3.4 we can see, for instance, that <5 2 is inadmissible because 64 improves it (i.e.,
R( 81 , 04) = 3 < 7 = R( 81 , 0,) and R( 8" 04) = 5.4 < 7.6 ~ R( 8" J,)).
To gain some insight into the class of all admissible procedures (randomized and nOn-
randomized) we again use the risk set. A rule <5 with risk point (TIl T2) is admissible, if and
only if, there is no (x, y) in S such that x < Tl and y < T2, or equivalently, if and only
if, {(x,V) : x < TI, Y < T2} has only (TI 1 T2) in common with S. From the figure it is
clear that such points must be on the lower left boundary. In fact, the set of all lower left
boundary points of S corresponds to the class of admissible rules and, thus, agrees with the
set of risk points of Bayes procedures.
If e is finite, e = {fh, ... l Ok}, we can define the risk set in general as

s ~ {( R(8 ,0), .
1 . , R(8" 0)) : 0 E V'}

where V" is the set of all randomized decision procedures. The following features exhibited
by the risk set by Example 1.3.5 can be shown to hold generally (see Ferguson, 1967, for
instance).

(a) For any prior there is always a nonrandomized Bayes procedure, if there is a ran-
domized one. (3) Randomized Bayes procedures are mixtures of nonrandomized
ones in the Sense of (1.3.14).

(b) The set B of risk points of Bayes procedures consists of risk points on the lower
boundary of S whose tangent hyperplanes have normals pointing into the posi-
tive quadrant.

(c) If e is finite(4) and minimax procedures exist, they are Bayes procedures.

(d) All admissible procedures are Bayes procedures.

(e) If a Bayes prior has 1f(Oi) > a for all i, then any Bayes procedure corresponding
to 1f is admissible.

If e is not finite there are typically admissible procedures that are not Bayes. However,
under some conditions, all admissible procedures are either Bayes procedures or limits of
32 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

, Bayes procedures (in various senses). These remarkable results, at least in their original
',I I fonn, are due essentially to Waldo They are useful because the property of being Bayes is
'jl, I eader to analyze than admissibility.
Other theorems are available characterizing larger but more manageable classes of pro-
I, I.
cedures, which include the admissible rules, at least when procedures with the same risk
function are identified. An important example is the class of procedures that depend only on
knowledge of a sufficient statistic (see Ferguson, ]967; Section 3.4). We stress that looking
at randomized procedures is essential for these conclusions, although it usually turns out
that all admissible procedures of interest are indeed nonrandomized. For more information
on these topics, we referto Blackwell and Girshick (1954) and Ferguson (1967).
Summary. We introduce the decision theoretic foundation of statistics inclUding the no-
tions of action space, decision rule, loss function, and risk through various examples in-
cluding estimation, testing, confidence bounds, ranking, and prediction. The basic bias-
variance decomposition of mean square error is presented. The basic global comparison
criteria Bayes and minimax are presented as well as a discussion of optimality by restriction
, and notions of admissibility.

1.4 PREDICTION
The prediction Example 1.3.2 presented important situations in which a vector z of 00-
variates can be used to predict an unseen response Y. Here are some further examples of
the kind of situation that prompts our study in this section. A college admissions officer
has available the College Board scores at entrance and first-year grade point averages of
freshman classes for a period of several years. Using this information, he wants to predict
the first-year grade point averages of entering freshmen on the basis of their College Board
scores. A stockholder wants to predict the value of his holdings at some time in the fu-
ture on the basis of his past experience with the market and his portfolio. A meteorologist
wants to estimate the amount of rainfall in the coming spring. A government expert wants
to predict the amount of heating oil needed next winter. Similar problems abound in every
field. The frame we shaH fit them into is the following.
We assume that we know the joint probability distribution of a random vector (or vari-
able) Z and a random variable Y. We want to find a function 9 defined on the range of
Z such that g(Z) (the predictor) is "close" to Y. In terms of our preceding discussion, Z
is the information that we have and Y the quantity to be predicted. For example, in the
college admissions situation, Z would be the College Board score of an entering freshman
and Y his or her first-year grade point average. The joint distribution of Z and Y can be
calculated (or rather well estimated) from the records of previous years that the admissions
, officer has at his disposal. Next we must specify what close means. One reasonable mea-
I
sure of "distance" is (g(Z) - Yj', which is the squared prediction error when g(Z) is used
to predict Y. Since Y is not known, we tum to the mean squared prediction error (MSPE)

t>2(Y,g(Z) = E[g(Z) ~ YI 2
or its square root yE(g(Z) - y)2. The MSPE is the measure traditionally used in the
Section 1.4 Prediction 33

mathematical theory of prediction whose deeper results (see, for example, Grenander and
Rosenblatt, 1957) presuppose it. The method that we employ to prove our elementary
theorems does generalize to other measures of distance than 6.(Y, g(Z)) such as the mean
absolute error E(lg( Z) - YI) (Problems 1.4.7-11). Just how widely applicable the notions
of this section are will become apparent in Remark 1.4.5 and Section 3.2 where the problem
of MSPE prediction is identified with the optimal decision problem of Bayesian statistics
with squared error loss.
The class Q of possible predictors 9 may be the nonparametric class QN P of all 9 :
R d -----Jo R or it may be to some subset of this class. See Remark 1.4.6. In this section we
consider QNP and the class QL of linear predictors of the form a + L1=1bjZj .
We begin the search for the best predictor in the sense of minimizing MSPE by consid-
ering the case in which there is no covariate information, or equivalently, in which Z is a
constant; see Example 1.3.4. In this situation all predictors are constant and the best one is
that number Co that minimizes B(Y - c)2 as a function of c.
Lemma 1.4.1. E(Y - c)2 is either oofor all c or is minimized uniquely by c = J.L = E(Y).
In fact, when EY' < 00,
E(Y - c)' ~ Var Y + (c _ 1')'. (1.4.1)

Proof. EY' < 00 if and only if E(Y - c)' < 00 for all c; see Problem 1.4.25. EY' < 00
implies that p, exists, and by expanding

Y - c = (Y -1') + (I' - c)
(1.4.1) follows because E(Y -p,) = 0 makes the cross product term vanish. We see that
E(Y - C)2 has a unique minimum at c = J.L and the lemma follows. 0

Now we can solve the problem of finding the best MSPE predictor of Y, given a vector
Z; that is, we can find the 9 that minimizes E(Y - g(Z))2. By the substitution theorem for
conditional expectations (B.l.16), we have

E[(Y - g(Z))' I Z = z] = E[(Y - g(z))' I Z = z]. (1.4.2)

Let

I'(z) = E(Y I Z = z).


Because g(z) is a constant, Lemma 1.4.1 assures us that

E[(Y - g(z))' IZ = z] = E[(Y -I'(z))' I Z = z] + [g(z) -I'(z)]'. (1.4.3)

If we now take expectations of both sides and employ the double expectation theorem
(B. 1.20), we can conclude that
Theorem 1.4.1. ljZ is any random vector and Y any random variable, then either E(Y -
g(Z))' = 00 for every function g or

E(Y - I'(Z))' < E(Y - g(Z))' (1.4.4)


34 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

for every 9 with strict inequality holding unless g(Z) = I'(Z). That is, I'(Z) is the unique
best MSPE predictor. Infact, when E(Y') < 00,

E(Y - g(Z)' = E(Y - I'(Z))' + E(g(Z) -1'(Z2 ( 1.4.5)

An important special case of (1.4.5) is obtained by taking g(z) ~ E(Y) for all z.
Write Var(Y I z) for the variance of the condition distribution of Y given Z = z, that is,
Var(Y I z) = E([Y - E(Y I z)]' I z), and recall (B. 1.20), then (1.4.5) becomes,

Vat Y = E(Var(Y I Z + Var(E(Y I Z), (1.4.6)

which is generally valid because if one side is infinite, so is the other.


Property (1.4.6) is linked to a notion that we now define: Two random variables U and
V with EIUVI < 00 are said to be uncorrelated if

EIV - E(v)IIU - E(U)] = O.


Equivalently U and V are uncorrelated if either EV[U -E(U)] = 0 or EUIV - E(V)J = O.
Let = Y - I-l(Z) denote the random prediction error, then we can write

Proposition 1.4.1. Suppose that Var Y < 00, then


(a) f is uncorrelated with every function ofZ
(b) I'(Z) and < are uncorrelated
(c) Var(Y) = Var I'(Z) + Var <.
Proof, To show (a), let h(Z) be any function of Z, then by the iterated expectation theorem.

E{h(Z)<1 E{ E[h(Z)< I Z]}


E{h(Z)E[Y -I'(Z) I Z]} = 0

because E[Y -I'(Z) I Z] = I'(Z) -I'(Z) = O. Properties (b) and (c) follow from (a). 0
Note that Proposition 1.4.1(c) is equivalent to (1.4.6) and that (1.4.5) follows from (a)
because (a) implies that the cross product term in the expansionof E ([Y -1'(z)J + [I'(z) -
g(z)IP vanishes.
As a consequence of (1.4.6), we can derive the following theorem, which will prove of
importance in estimation theory.
Theorem 1.4.2. If E(IYI) < 00 but Z and Y are otherwise arbitrary, then
Var(E(Y I Z)) < Var Y. (1.4.7)

IJVar Y < 00 strict inequality ooids unless

1 Y = E(Y I Z) (1.4.8)

or equivalently unless Y is a function oJZ.


Section 1.4 Prediction 35

Proof. The assertion (1.4.7) follows immediately from (1.4.6). Equality in (1.4.7) can hold
if, and only if,

E(Var(Y I Z)) ~ E(Y - E(Y I Z))' ~ 0

By (A.lI.9) this can hold if, and only if, (1.4.8) is true. o
Example 1.4.1. An assembly line operates either at full, half, or quarter capacity. Within
any given month the capacity status does not change. Each day there can be 0, 1, 2, or
3 shutdowns due to mechanical failure. The following table gives the frequency function
p( z, y) = p (Z = Z 1 Y = y) of the number of shutdowns Y and the capacity state Z of the
line for a randomly chosen day. The row sums of the entries pz (z) (given at the end of each
row) represent the frequency with which the assembly line is in the appropriate capacity
state, whereas the column sums py (y) yield the frequency of 0, I, 2, or 3 failures among
all days. We want to predict the number of failures for a given day knowing the state of the
assembly line for the month. We find

3
E(Y I Z = 1) = L iF[Y = i I Z = 1] ~ 2.45,
i=l

E (Y I Z = ~) ~ 2.10, E (Y I Z = ) = 1.20.

These fractional figures are not too meaningful as predictors of the natural number values
of Y. But this predictor is also the right one, if we are trying to guess, as we reasonably
might, the average number of failures per day in a given month. In this case if Yi represents
the number of failures on day i and Z the state of the assembly line, the best predictor is
E (30- 1 2.:;'" 1 Y; I z) = E(Y I Z), also.

p(z,y)
z\y 0 1 2 3 pz(z)
0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.25
0.025 0.025 0.10 0.10 0.25
1 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.30 0.50
py(y) I 0.15 I 0.10 I 0.30 I 0.45 ~ 1

The MSPE of the best predictor can be calculated in two ways. The first is direct.

3
E(Y - E(Y I Z))' =L ~)y - E(Y I Z = z))2 p (z, y) = 0.885.
x y=o
36 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

The second way is to use (1.4.6) writing,

E(Y ~ E(Y I Z))' VarY ~ Var(E(Y I Z))


E(Y') ~ E[(E(Y I Z))']

I>'PY(Y) - L[E(Y I Z = z)]'pz(z)


y ,

0.885

as before. o
Example 1.4.2. The Bivariate Normal Distribution. Regression toward the mean. If (Z, Y)
has a N(Jlz l f-.LY, a'k, O"~, p) distribution, Theorem B.4.2 tells us that the conditional dis-
tribution of Y given Z = z is N City + p(Uy j UZ ) (z - /lz), u~. (1 - p')). Therefore, the
best predictor of Y using Z is the linear function

/lO(Z) = /lY + p(uyjuz)(Z ~ /lZ).


Because
,, E((Y - E(Y I Z = Z))2 I Z = z) = u~(l _ p') (1.4.9)
I, is independent of z, the MSPE of our predictor is given by,
"
"

E(Y - E(Y I Z))' = u~(1 _ p'). (1.4.10)


I
I
The qualitative behavior of this predictor and of its MSPE gives some insight into the
"

structure of the bivariate normal distribution. If p > O. the predictor is a monotone in-
creasing function of Z indicating that large (small) values of Y tend to be associated with
large (small) values of Z. Similarly, p < 0 indicates that large values of Z tend to go with
small values of Y and we have negative dependence. If p = 0, the best predictor is just
the constant f.J.y as we would expect in the case of independence. One minus the ratio of
the MSPE of the best predictor of Y given Z to Var Y, which is the MSPE of the best
constant predictor, can reasonably be thought of as a measure of dependence. The larger
this quantity the more dependent Z and Yare. In the bivariate normal case, this quantity
is just rl'. Thus, for this family of distributions the sign of the correlation coefficient gives
the type of dependence between Z and Y, whereas its magnitude measures the degree of
such dependence. .
Because of (1.4.6) we can also write

2 Var /lO(Z)
p = VarY . (1.4.11)
,I
I
The line y = /lY + p(uy juz)(z ~ /lz), which corresponds to the best predictor of
Y given Z in the bivariate normal model, is usually called the regression (line) of Y on
Z. The term regression was coined by Francis Galton and is based on the following ob-
servation. Suppose Y and Z are bivariate normal random variables with the same mean
Section 1.4 Prediction 37

tt, variance cr2, and positive correlation p. In Galton's case, these were the heights of a
randomly selected father (Z) and his son (Y) from a large human population. Then the
predicted height of the son, or the average height of sbns whose fathers are the height Z,
(1 - p)tt + pZ, is closer to the population mean of heights tt than is the height of the father.
Thus, tall fathers tend to have shorter sons; there is "regression toward the mean." This is
compensated for by "progression" toward the mean among the sons of shorter fathers and
there is no paradox. The variability of the predicted value about 11, should, consequently,
be less than that of the actual heights and indeed Var((! - p)1" + pZ) = p'(T'. Note that
in practice, in particular in Galton's studies, the distribution of (Z, Y) is unavailable and
the regression line is estimated on the basis of a sample (Zl, YI ), ... , (Zn, Yn ) from the
population. We shall see how to do this in Chapter 2. 0

Example 1.4.3. The Multivariate Normal Distribution. Let Z = (Zl, .. " Zd)T be a
d x 1 covariate vector with mean JLz = (ttl, ... , ttd)T and suppose that (ZT, y)T has
a (d + !) multivariate normal, N d +1 (I-', E), distribution (Section B.6) in which I-'
(I"~, I"Y) T, I"Y = E(Y),

Ezy
O"yy

E zz is the d x d variance-covariance matrix Var(Z) ,

T T
E zy = (COV(Z" Y), ... ,COV(Zd, Y ~ E yZ

and Uyy = Var(Y). Theorem B.6.5 states that the conditional distribution of Y given Z =
z is N(I"Y +(z-l-'zf,8, uYYlz) where,8 = EziEzy anduYYlz ~ uyy-EyzEziEzy.
Thus, the best predictor E(Y I Z) ofY is the linear function

(1.4.12)

with MSPE

ElY -l"o(Z)]' ~ E{EIY -l"o(zlI' I Z} = E(uYYlz) ~ Uyy - EyzEziEzy.

The quadratic fonn EyzEZ"iEzy is positive except when the joint nonnal distribution
is degenerate, so the MSPE of !lo(Z) is smaller than the MSPE of the constant predictor
J1y. One minus the ratio of these MSPEs is a measure of how strongly the covariates
are associated with Y. This quantity is called the multiple correlation coefficient (MCC),
coefficient ofdetennination or population R-squared. We write

Mee = ' ~! _ ElY -/l-O(Z))' ~ Var l"o(Z)


PZy Var Y Var Y

where the last identity follows from (1.4.6). By (1.4.11), the MCC equals the square of the
, ,
usual correlation coefficient p = UZy / crf-yCT lz when d = 1.
38 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

For example, let Y and Z = (Zl, Z2)T be the heights in inches of a IO-year-old girl
and her parents (Zl = mother's height, Z2 = father's height). Suppose(l) that (ZT l Y) T is
trivariate nonnal with Var(Y) = 6.39

l;zz ~ (;:;~ ~:~~), l;zy ~ (407, 29W


Then the strength of association between a girl's height and those of her mother and father,
respectively; and parents, are

P~,.y = .335, P~,.y = .209, p~y = .393.


In words, knowing the mother's height reduces the mean squared prediction error over the
constant predictor by 33.5%. The percentage reductions knowing the father's and both
parent's heights are 20.9% and 39.3%, respectively. In practice. when the distribution of
(ZT, y)T is unknown, the hnear predictor l'a(Z) and its MSPE will be estimated using a
sample (Zi, Y,)T, ... , (Z~, yn)T See Sections 2.1 and 2.2. 0
The best linear predictor, The problem of finding the best MSPE predictor is solved by
Theorem 1.4.1. Two difficulties of the solution are that we need fairly precise knowledge of
the joint distribution of Z and Y in order to calcujate E(Y I Z) and that the best predictor
may be a complicated function of Z. If we are willing to sacrifice absolute excellence, we
can avoid both objections by looking for a predictor that is best within a class of simple
predictors. The natural class to begin with is that of linear combinations of components of
Z. We first do the one-dimensional case.
Let us call any random variable of the form a + bZ a linear predictor and any such
variable with a = 0 a zero intercept linear predictor. What is the best (zero intercept)
linear predictor of Y in the sense of minimizing MSPE? The answer is given by:
Theorem 1.4.3. Suppose that E(Z') and E(Y') are finite and Z and Y are not constant.
Then the unique best zero intercept linear predictor i~ obtained by taking

E(ZY)
b=ba = E(Z') ,

whereas the unique best linear predictor is ILL (Z) = al + bl Z where

b = Cov(Z, Y) a
I VarZ,l
= E(Y) - b E(Z)
1

Proof. We expand {Y - bZ}' = (Y - [Z(b - ba) + Zba]}' to get

E(Y - bZ)' = E(Y') + E(Z')(b - ba )' - E(Z')b~.

Therefore, E(Y - bZ)' is uniquely minintized by b = ba, and

E(Y _ boZ)' = E(Y') _ [E(ZY)]' (1.4.13)


E(Z')
Section 1.4 Prediction 39

To prove the second assertion of the theorem note that by (lA.l).

E(Y - a - bZ)' ~ Var(Y - bZ) + (E(Y) - bE(Z) - a)'.

Therefore, whatever be b, E(Y - a - bZ)2 is uniquely minimized by taking

a ~ E(Y) - bE(Z).

Substituting this value of a in E(Y - a - bZ)2 we see that the b we seek minimizes
E[(Y - E(Y)) - b(Z - E(Z))]'. We can now apply the result on zero intercept linear
predictors to the variables Z - E(Z) and Y - E(Y) to conclude that b, is the unique
minimizing value. 0
Remark 1.4.1. From (1.4.13) we obtain tlte proof of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality
(A.I1.l7) in the appendix. This is because E(Y - boZ)' > 0 is equivalent to the Cauchy-
Schwarz inequality with equality holding if, and only if, E(Y - boZ)' = 0, whiclt
corresponds to Y = boZo We could similarly obtain (A. I 1.16) directly by calculating
E(Y - a, - b,Z)'. 0

Note that if E(Y I Z) is of the form a + bZ, then a = a, and b = b1 because.


by (1.4.5), if the best predictor is linear, it must coincide with the best linear predictor.
This is in accordance with our evaluation of E(Y I Z) in Example 1.4.2. In that example
nothing is lost by using linear prediction. On the other hand, in Example 1.4.1 the best
linear predictor and best predictor differ (see Figure 1.4.1). A loss of about 5% is incurred
by using the best linear predictor. That is,

E[Y - I'd Z )]' = 1 05


ElY -I'(Z)j' ..

Best Multivariate Linear Predictor. OUf linear predictor is of the fonn

d
I'I(Z) = a + LbjZj = a+ ZTb
j=l

[3 = (E([Z - E(Z)IIZ - E(ZWW ' E([Z - E(Z)J[Y - E(Y)]) = EziEzy.

Theorem 1.4.4. If EY' and (E([Z - E(Z)f[Z - E(Z)J))-1 exist, then the Unique best
MSPE predictor is

I'dZ) = I'Y + (Z - J.tzf [3. (1.4.14)

Proof. Note that R(a. b) = Ep[Y - I'l(Z)1' depends on the joint distribution P of
X ~ (ZT, Yl T only through the expectation J.t and covariance E of X. Let Po denote
40 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

,
,
,, 2

o z
o 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Figure 1.4.1. The three dots give the best predictor. The line represents the best linear
predictor y = 1.05 + 1.45z.

.. the multivariate uormal, N(/L, E), distribution and let Ro(a, b) = Epo IY - I'I(Z)]'. By
Example 1.4.3, Ro(a, b) is miuimized by (1.4.14). Because P and Po have the same /L and
E, R(a, b) = Ro(a, b), and R(a, b) is minimized by (1.4.14). 0
Remark 1.4.2. We could also have established Theorem 1.4.4 by extending the proof of
Theorem 1.4.3 to d > 1. However, our new proof shows how second-moment results
sometimes can be established by "connecting" them to the nannal distribution. A third
approach using calculus is given in Problem 1.4.19. 0
Remark 1.4.3. In the general, not necessarily nonnal, case the multiple correlation coeffi-
cient (MCC) or coefficient of determination is defined as the correlation between Y and the
best linear predictor of Y; that is,

p~y = Corr2 (y,I'LCZ)).


Thus, the MCC gives the strength of the linear relationship between Z and Y. See Problem
1.4.17 for an overall measure of the strength of this relationship. 0
Remark 1.4.4. Suppose the mooel for I'(Z) is linear; that is,

I"(Z) = E(Y I Z) = a + ZT 13
for unknown Q: E R and f3 E Rd. We want to express Q: and f3 in terms of moments of
(Z, Y). Set Zo = 1. By Proposition 1.4.1(a), , ~ Y - I'(Z) and each of Zo, ... , Zd are
uncorrelated; thus,
E(Zj[Y - (a + ZT 13)]) = 0, j = 0, ... ,d. (1.4.15)
Section 1.5 Sufficiency 41

Solving (1.4.15) for a and f3 gives (1.4.14) (Problem 1.4.23). Because the multivariate
normal model is a linear model, this gives a new derivation of (1.4.12).

Remark 1.4.5. Consider the Bayesian model of Section 1.2 and the Bayes risk (1.3.8)
defined by r(5) = E[I(II,5(X]. If we identify II with Y and X with Z, we see that
r(5) ~ MSPE for squared error loss 1(9,5) = (9 - 5)'- Thus. the optimal MSPE predictor
E(6 I X) is the Bayes procedure for squared error loss. We return to this in Section
3.2. 0
Remark 1.4.6. When the class 9 of possible predictors 9 with Elg(Z)1 < oc form a Hilbert
space as defined in Section B.I 0 and there is a 90 E 9 such that

go = arg inf{",,(Y,g(Z): 9 E g),


then 90(Z) is called the projection of Y on the space 9 of functions of Z and we write
go(Z) = ,,(Y I 9). Moreover, g(Z) and h(Z) are said to be orthogonal if at least one has
expected value zero and E[g(Z)h(Z)] ~ O. With these concepts the results of this section
are linked to the general Hilbert space results of Section 8.10. Using the distance D.. and
projection 1r notation, we can conclude that

I'(Z) = ,,(Y 19NP), I'dZ) = ,,(Y 1ge) ~ "(I'(Z) 19d


""'(Y, I'dZ = ",,' (l'e(Z), I'(Z + ""'(Y, I'(Z (1.4.16)
Y - I'(Z) is orthogonal to I'(Z) and to I'dZ). (1.4.17)

Note that (1.4.16) is the Pythagorean identity. o


Summary. We consider situations in which the goal is to predict the (perhaps in the future)
value of a random variable Y. The notion of mean squared prediction error (MSPE) is in-
troduced, and it is shown that if we want to predict Y on the basis of information contained
in a random vector Z, the optimal MSPE predictor is the conditional expected value of Y
given Z. The optimal MSPE predictor in the multivariate normal distribution is presented.
It is shown to coincide with the optimal MSPE predictor when the model is left general but
the class of possible predictors is restricted to be linear.

1.5 SUFFICIENCY
Once we have postulated a statistical model, we would clearly like to separate out any
aspects of the data that are irrelevant in the context of the model and that may obscure our
understanding of the situation.
We begin by fonnalizing what we mean by "a reduction of the data" X EX. Re-
call that a statistic is any function of the observations generically denoted by T(X) or T.
The range of T is any space of objects T, usually R or Rk, but as we have seen in Sec~
tion 1.1.3, can also be a set of functions. If T assigns the same value to different sample
points, then by recording or taking into account only the value of T(X) we have a reduc-
tion of the data. Thus, T(X) = X loses information about the Xi as soon as n > 1.
42 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Even T(X J, . . . X n ) (X(I) . .... X(n))' loses information about the labels of the Xi.
The idea of sufficiency is to reduce the data with statistics whose use involves no loss of
information, in the context of a model P = {Pe : (J E e}.
For instance, suppose that in Example 1.1.1 we had sampled the manufactured items in
order, recording at each stage whether the examined item was defective or not. We could
then represent the data by a vector X = (Xl,'" ,Xn ) where Xi = 1 if the ith item
sampled is defective and Xi = 0 otherwise. The total number of defective items observed,
T = L~~l Xi, is a statistic that maps many different values of (Xl,'" , X n ) into the
same number. However, it is intuitively clear that if we are interested in the proportion 0 of
defective items nothing is lost in this situation by recording and using only T.
One way of making the notion "a statistic whose use involves no loss of infonnation"
precise is the following. A statistic T(X) is called sufficient for PEP or the parameter
o if the conditional distribution of X given T(X) = t does not involve O. Thus, once
the value of a sufficient statistic T is known, the sample X = (Xl, ... ,Xn ) does not
contain any further infonnation about 0 or equivalently P, given that P is valid. We give a
decision theory interpretation that follows. The most trivial example of a sufficient statistic
is T(X) = X because by any interpretation the conditional distribution of X given T(X) =
X is point mass at X.
Example 1.5.1. A machine produces n items in succession. Each item produced is good
with probability 0 and defective with probability 1- 0, where 0 is unknown. Suppose there
is no dependence between the quality of the items produced and let Xi = 1 if the ith item
is good and 0 otherwise. Then X = (Xl, ... ,Xn ) is the record of n Bernoulli trials with
probability 8. By (A.9.5),

P[X I = XI,'" ,Xn = xnl = 8'(1- 8)n-' (1.5.1)

where Xi is 0 or 1 and t = L:~ I Xi. By Example B.l.l, the conditional distribution of X


given T = L:~ I Xi = t does not involve O. Thus, T is a sufficient statistic for O. 0
Example 1.5.2. Suppose that arrival of customers at a service counter follows a Poisson
e.
process with arrival rate (parameter) Let Xl be the time of arrival of the first customer,
X 2 the time between the arrival of the first and second customers. By (A. 16.4), Xl and X 2
are independent and identically distributed exponential random variables with parameter
O. We prove that T = X I + X 2 is sufficient for O. Begin by noting that according to
TheoremB.2.3, whatever be 8, XI/(X l +X,) and Xl +X, are independent and the first of
these statistics has a uniform distribution on (0, 1). Therefore, the conditional distribution
of XI/(X l + X,) given Xl + X, = tis U(O, 1) whatever be t. Using our discussion
in Section B.l.l we see that given Xl + X2 = t, the conditional distribution of Xl =
[XI/(X l + X,)](X I + X,) and that of Xlt/(X l + X,) are the same and we can conclude
that given Xl + X, ~ t, Xl has aU(O, t) distribution. It follows that, when Xl + X, = t,
.'
,", whatever be 8, (Xl, X,) is conditionally distributed as (X, Y) where X is uniform on
(0, t) and Y = t - X. Thus, X, + X, is sufficient. 0
In both of the foregoing examples considerable reduction has been achieved. Instead
of keeping track of several numbers, we need only record one. Although the sufficient
statistics we have obtained are "natural," it is important to notice that there are many others
Section 1.5 Sufficiency 43

that will do the same job. Being told that the numbers of successeS in five trials is three is the
same as knowing that the difference between the numbers of successes and the number of
failures is one. More generally, if Tl and T2 are any two statistics such that 7 1 (x) = T 1 (y)
if and only if T2(x) = T 2(y), then T 1 and T2 provide the same information and achieve
the same reduction of the data. Such statistics are called equivalent.
In general, checking sufficiency directly is difficult because we need to compute the
conditional distribution. Fortunately, a simple necessary and sufficient criterion for a statis-
tic to be sufficient is available. This result was proved in various forms by Fisher, Neyman,
and Halmos and Savage. It is often referred to as the factorization theorem for sufficient
statistics.

Theorem I.S.I.In a regular model, a statistic T(X) with range T is sufficient for e if, and
only if, there exists afunction g(t, e) definedfor tin T and e in e and a/unction h defined
on X such that

p(X,O) = g(T(x), O)h(x) (152)

for all X E X, 0 E 8.
We shall give the proof in the discrete case. The complete result is established for
instance by Lehmann (1997, Section 2.6).
Proof. Let (Xl, X2,.") be the set of possible realizations of X and let t i = T(Xi)' Then
T is discrete and 2::~ 1 porT = Ii] = 1 for every e. To prove the sufficiency of (152),
we need only show that Pl/[X = xjlT = til is independent of for every i and j. By e
our definition of conditional probability in the discrete case, it is enough to show that
Po[X = XjlT ~ l;j is independent ofe on cach of the sets Si = {O: porT ~ til> OJ,
i = 1,2, .... Now, if (152) holds,

porT = til = I: p(x,e) = g(ti,O) I: h(x). (153)


{x:T(x)=t,} {x:T(x)=t;}

By (B.Ll) and (152), forO E Si,

Po[X = XjlT = t;] Po[X = Xj, T = t;]/porT = Ii]


p(x;, 0)
porT ~ Ii]
(15.4)
g(li, e)h(Xj)
~~C---C+ if T(xj) ~ Ii
Po[T- 41
o if T(xj) oF t i .
Applying (153) we arrive at,

Po [X ~ XjlT = t;] o if T(xj) oF ti


h(xj) (1.5.5)
if T(xj) = Ii.
44 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Therefore, T is sufficient. Conversely. if T is sufficient, let

g(ti' 0) = porT = tiL h(x) = P[X = xIT(X) = til (1.5.6)

Then

p(x, 0) ~ Po[X = x, T = T(x)] = g(T(x), O)h(x) (1.5.7)

by (B. 1.3). o
Example 1.5.2 (continued). If X 1, .. , l X n are the interarrival times for n customers. then
the joint density of (X" ... ,Xn ) is given by (see (A.16.4)),
n
P(Xl,'" ,Xn,O)=onexP[-OLXil (1.5.8)
i=l

if all the Xi are > 0, and P(XI' ... ,X n JI) = 0 otherwise. We may apply Theorem 1.5.1 to
conclude that T(X 1 , .. ,Xn ) = L~ IXi is sufficient. Takeg(t,8) = ene-Stift > 0,
o > 0, and h(xl ... I x n ) = 1 if all the Xi are > 0, and both functions = 0 otherwise.
A whole class of distributions, which admits simple sufficient statistics and to which this
example belongs, are introduced in the next section. 0
Example 1.5.3. Estimating the Size of a Population. Consider a population with () mem-
bers labeled consecutively from I to B. The population is sampled with replacement and
n members of the population are observed and their labels Xl, ... ,Xn are recorded.
Common sense indicates that to get information about B, we need only keeep track of
X(n) = max(X ... X n ). 10 fact, we can show that X(n) is sufficient. The probability
distribution of X "is given by

(1.5.9)

if every Xi is an integer between 1 and B and p( X 11 " 1 Xn , O} = 0 otherwise. Expression


(1.5.9) can be rewritten as

P(Xl, .. ' ,X.,O) = o-nl{x(n) < O}, (1.5.10)

where x(n) = max(xl, ,xn }. By Theorem 1.5.1, X(n) is a sufficient statistic for O. 0
Example 1.5.4. Let Xl, 1 X n be independent and identically distributed random vari-

ables each having a normal distribution with mean {l and variance (j2. both of which are
unknown. Let 0 = (JL, ,,'). Then the density of (X" .. , ,Xn ) is given by
I n
I. [27",'I- n /' exp{ - 2,,' L(Xi - JL)'}
I! ~=l

2 1 n n
- [27f,,'t n /'[exp{ - ~;, }][exp{ - 2,,' (L x~ - 2JL LXi))].
1=1 1=1
(!.S.Il)

,,,

_ _ _1
Section 1.5 Sufficiency 45

Evidently P{Xl 1 ,xnJ)) is itself a function of (L~ I Xi, L~-l x~) and () only and
upon applying Theorem 1.5.1 we can conclude that
n n

T(X 1 , , X n ) = (I: Xi, 2:>;)


i=l i=l

is sufficient for B. An equivalent sufficient statistic in this situation that is frequently used
IS
n n
S(X" . .. , X n ) = [(lin) I: Xi, [1/(n - 1)1 I:(Xi - X)'],
i=l i= 1

where = (lin) L~ 1 Xi. The first and second components of this vector are called the
X
sample mean and the sample variance, respectively. 0

Example 1.5.5. Suppose, a<; in Example 1.1.4 with d = 2, that Y I , .. . Yn are independent,
Yi N(J-l-i, a 2 ), with JLi following the linear regresssion model
("'-J

where we assume diat the given constants {Zi} are not all identical. Then 6 = {{31, {32, a 2)T
is identifiable (Problem 1.1.9) and

(
p y, I)) _ (
- 2?Ta
')-~ exp
{-E(fJ,2a+ I3,Zi)'} exp {-Er;' + 213 2aEY; + 213,EZiY;}
2
1
2 .

Thus, T = (EYi , EYi 2 , Ezi 1'i) is sufficient for 6. o

Sufficiency and decision theory


Sufficiency can be given a clear operational interpretation in the decision theoretic set-
ting. Specifically, if T(X) is sufficient, we can, for any decision procedure o(x), find a
randomized decision rule o'(T(X)) depending only on T(X) that does as well as O(X) in
the sense of having the same risk function; that is,

R(O,o) = R(O, 0') for allO. (1.5.12)

By randomized we mean that o'(T(X) can be generated from the value t ofT(X) and a
random mechanism not depending on B.
Here is an example.

Example 1.5.6. Suppose X" ... , X n are independent identically N(I),l) distributed.
Then
pix, I)) = exp{nI)(x - ~0)}(2"r~n exp{ - ~ I: xn
By the factorization theorem, X is sufficient. Let o(X) = Xl' Using only X, we construct
a rule O'(X) with the sarne risk = mean squared error as o(X) as follows: Conditionally.
46 Statistical Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

given X = t, choose T" = 15"' (X) from the normal N(t, n~l) distribution. Using Section
B.l and (1.4.6). we find

E(T') ~ E[E(T'IX)] ~ E(X) ~ I" ~ E(X , )

- - n-l 1
Var(T') = E[Var(T'IX)] + VarIE(T'IX)] ~ +- ~ 1 = Var(X , ).
n n
Thus, 6'(X) and 6(X) have the same mean squared error. 0
The proof of (1.5.12) follows along the lines of the preceding example: Given T(X) =
t, the distribution of 6(X) does not depend on O. Now draw 6' randomly from this condi-
tional distribution. This 6' (T(X)) will have the same risk as 6' (X) because, by the double
expectation theorem,

R(O,6') ~ E{E[R(O,6'(T))IT]} ~ E{E[R(O,6(X)IT]} = R(O,6).


o

Sufficiency aud Bayes models


There is a natural notion of sufficiency of a statistic T in the Bayesian context where in
addition to the model P = {Po : 0 E e} we postulate a prior distribution 11 for e.
In Example 1.2.1 (Bernoulli trials) we saw that the posterior distribution given X = x is
the same as the posterior distribution given T(X) = L~-l Xi = k, where k = 2:7
1 Xi.
In this situation we call T Bayes sufficient.

Definition. T(X) is Bayes sufficient for IT if the posterior distribution of 8 given X = x is


the same as the posterior (conditional) distribution of () given T(X) = T(x) for all x.
Equivalently, 0 and X are independent given T(X).
Theorem },5.2. (Kolmogorov). IfT(X) is sufficient for 0, it is Bayes sufficient for every
11.
This result and a partial converse is the subject of Problem 1.5.14.

Minimal sufficiency
For any model there are many sufficient statistics: Thus, if Xl, ... ,Xn is a N(p., (T2)
sample n > 2, then T(X) = (L~ I Xi, L~ I xl) and S(X) = (X" ... , X n ) are hoth
sufficient. But T(X) provides a greater reduction of the data. We define the statistic T(X)
to be minimally sufficient if it is sufficient and provides a greater reduction of the data
than any other sufficient statistic S(X), in that, we can find a transformation r such that
T(X) = r(S(X)).
Example 1.5.1 (continued). In this Bernoulli trials case, T = E: I Xi was shown to be
sufficient. Let SeX) be any other sufficient statistic. Then by the factorization theorem we
can write p(x, 0) as
p(x,O) = g(S(x), O)h(x)

-
Section 1.5 Sufficiency 47

Combining this with (1.5.1), we find

OT(1 - o)n-T ~g(S(x),O)h(x) forall O.

For any two fixed (h and fh, the ratio of both sides of the foregoing gives

In particular. if we set 0, ~ 2/3 and 0, ~ 1/3, take the log of both sides of this equation
and solve for T, we find

T = r(S(x)) ~ (log[2ng(s(x), 2/3)/g(S(x), 1/3)]}/21og 2.

Thus, T is minimally sufficient. o

The likelihood function


The preceding example shows how we can use p(x, ()) for different values of () and
the factorization theorem to establish that a sufficient statistic is minimally sufficient. We
define the likelihood function L for a given observed data vector x as

Lx(O) = p(x,O),O E e.
Thus, Lx is a map from the sample space X to the class T of functions {() --t p(x, ())
x E X}. It is a statistic whose values are functions; if X = x, the statistic L takes on
the value Lx. In the discrete case, for a given 8, L x (()) gives the probability of observing
the point x. In the continuous case it is approximately proportional to the probability of
observing a point in a small rectangle around x. However, when we think of Lx(B) as a
function of (), it gives, for a given observed x, the "likelihood" or "plausibility" of various
8. The formula (1.5.8) for the posterior distribution can then be remembered as Posterior
ex: (Prior) x (Likelihood) where the sign ex denotes proportionality as functions of 8.
Example 1.5.4 (continued). In this N(/", (T') example, the likelihood function (1.5.11) is
determined by the two-dimensional sufficient statistic
n n

T = (TI,T,) ~ (L Xi, L Xf)


i=l i=l

Set 0 = (0 10 0,) = (/", (T'), then

Lx(O) = (27rO,) -n/' exp {nO;


--}exp ( I
---;;-(t, - 20 I t,)}.
20, 20'
Now, as a function of (), L x (') determines (iI, t2) because, for example,

t, = -2 log Lx(O,1) -nlog27r


48 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

with a similar expression for t 1 in terms of Lx (O. 1) and Lx (1, 1) (Problem 1.5.17). Thus,
L is a statistic that is equivalent to ((1' i 2) and. hence, itself sufficient. By arguing as in
Example 1.5.1 (continued) we can show that T and, hence. L is minimal sufficient. 0
In fact. a statistic closely related to L solves the minimal sufficiency problem in general.
Suppose there exists 00 such that

(x: p(x,O) > OJ c (x: p(x,Oo) > OJ


for all B. Let Ax = Lx~6o)' Thus, Ax is the function valued statistic that at (J takes on the
value p((x:),
x, 0
the likelihood ratio of () to Bo. Then Ax is minimal sufficient. See Problem
1.5.12 for a proof of this theorem of Dynkin, Lehmann, and Scheffe.

The "irrelevant" part of the data


We can always rewrite the original X as (T(X), SeX)~ where SeX) is a statistic
needed to uniquely detennine x once we know the sufficient statistic T(x). For instance,
ifT(X) = X we can take SeX) ~ (Xl - X, .. . ,Xn - X), the residuals; or if T(X) ~
(X~l)' ... ,X Cn )' the order statistics, S(X) = (R" ... ,Rn ), the ranks, where R i ~
Lj~t I(X; < X;). SeX) becomes irrelevant (ancillary) for inference if T(X) is known
but only if P is valid. Thus, in Example 1.5.5. if a 2 = 1 is postulated. X is sufficient,
but if in fact a 2 -I 1 all information about a 2 is contained in the residuals. If, as in the
Example 1.5.4, a 2 is assumed unknown, (X, l:~ I (Xi - X)2) is sufficient, but if in fact
the common distribution of the observations is not Gaussian all the information needed to
estimate this distribution is contained in the corresponding S(X)-see Problem 1.5.13. If
P specifies that X 11 .. 1 X n are a random sample. (X( I)' . . . X( n is sufficient. B ul the
ranks are needed if we want to look for possible dependencies in the observations as in
Example 1.1.5.
Summary. Consider an experiment with observation vector X = (Xl ... 1 X n ). Suppose
that X has distribution in the class P ~ {Po : 0 E e}. We say that a statistic T (X)
is sufficient for PEP. or for the parameter O. if the conditional distribution of X given
T(X) = t does not involve O. Let p(X, OJ denote the frequency function or density of
X. The factorization theorem states that T(X) is sufficient for () if and only if there exist
functions g( t, 0) and heX) such that

p(X, 0) = g(T(X), O)h(X).


We show the following result: If T(X) is sufficient for 0, then for any decision procedure
J(X), we can find a randomized decision rule J'(T(X depending only on the value of
t = T(X) and not on 0 such that J and J' have identical risk functions. We define a
statistic T(X) to be Bayes sufficient for a prior 7r if the posterior distribution of f:} given
X = x is the same as the posterior distribution of 0 given T(X) = T(x) for all X. If
T(X) is sufficient for 0, it is Bayes sufficient for O. A sufficient statistic T(X) is minimally
sufficient for () if for any other sufficient statistic SeX) we can find a ttansformation r
such that T(X) = r(S(X). The likelihood function is defined for a given data vector of

.. _----------'
Section 1.6 Exponential Families 49

observations X to be the function of B defined by Lx(B) = p(X. B). B E' e. IfT(X) is


e
sufficient for B, and if there is a value Bo E such that

{x: p(x, B) > O} c {x: p(x,B o) > O}, BEe,


then, by the factorization theorem, the likelihood ratio

Ax(B) = Lx(B)
Lx(Bo)
depends on X through T(X) only. Ax(B) is a minimally sufficient statistic.

1.6 EXPONENTIAL FAMILIES


The binomial and normal models considered in the last section exhibit the interesting fea-
ture that there is a natural sufficient statistic whose dimension as a random vector is inde-
pendent of the sample size. The class of families of distributions that we introduce in this
section was first discovered in statistics independently by Koopman, Pitman, and Dannois
through investigations of this property(l). Subsequently, many other common features of
these families were discovered and they have become important in much of the modern
theory of statistics.
Probability models with these common features include normal, binomial, Poisson,
gamma, beta, and multinomial regression models used to relate a response variable Y to a
set of predictor variables. More generally, these families form the basis for an important
class of models called generalized linear models. We return to these models in Chapter 2.
They will reappear in several connections in this book.

1.6.1 The One-Parameter Case


The family of distributions of a model {Pe : B E 8}, is said to be a one-parameter expo-
nentialfami/y, if there exist real-valued functions fJ(B), B( 0) on e, real-valued functions T
and h on Rq, such that the density (frequency) functions p(x, B) of the Pe may be written

p(x,B) ~ h(x)exp{'7(B)T(x) - B(B)} (1.6.1)

where x E X c Rq. Note that the functions 1}, B. and T are not unique.
In a one-parameter exponential family the random variable T(X) is sufficient for B.
This is clear because we need only identify exp{'7(B)T(x) - B(B)} with g(T(x),B) and
h(x) with itself in the factorization theorem. We shall refer to T as a natural sufficient
statistic of the family.
Here are some examples.
Example 1.6.1. The Poisson Distribution. Let Po be the Poisson distribution with unknown
mean IJ. Then, for x E {O, 1,2"" },
eXe- o 1
p(x,B) = I = ,exp{xlogB-B}, B>O. (1.6.2)
x. x.
50 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

, ; Therefore, the Pe form a one-parameter exponential family with


. I

~~I q = 1,1](0) = logO, B(O) = 0, T(x) ~ x,h(x) = -,'


1
(1.6.3)
, ,I!. x.
I'
,
, Example 1.6.2. The Binomial Family. Suppose X has a B(n, 0) distribution, 0 < 0 < 1.
Then, for x E {O, 1, . , . , n)

p(x,O) = ( : ) 0'(1_ Or"


(1.6.4)
( : ) ex p [xlog(1 ~ 0) + nlog(l- 0)].
Therefore, the family of distributions of X is a one-parameter exponential family with

q=I,1](O)=log(I~0),B(O)=-nlog(I-0),T(x)=x,h(X)=( : ) . (1.6.5)

o
Here is an example where q = 2.
Example 1.6.3. Suppose X = (Z, y)T where Y = Z + OW, 0 > 0, Z and W are
independent N(O, 1). Then
f(x,O) f(z,y,O) = f(z)f.(y I z) = <p(zW1<p((y - Z)O-I)

(2rrO)-1 exp { - ~ [z' + (y - Z)'O-'J}

(2rr)-1 exp { - ~z' } exp { - ~O-'(y - z)' -logO}.

This is a one-parameter exponential family distribution with

q = 2,1](0) = - ~O-', B(O) = logO,T(x) = (y - z)', h(x) = (2rr)-1 exp { - ~z,} .


o
The families of distributions obtained by sampling from one-parameter exponential
families are themselves one-parameter exponential families. Specifically, suppose
Xl, ... ,Xm are independent and identically distributed with common distribution Pe,
where the p. fonn a one-parameter exponential family as in (1.6.1). If {pJ=, 0 E e, is
the family of distributions of X = (Xl' ... 1 X m ) considered as a random vector in Rmq
and p(x, B) are the corresponding density (frequency) functions. we have
m
p(x,O) IIh(x,) exp[~(O)T(x;) - B(8)]
i=1
( 1.6.6)
Section 1.6 Exponential Families 51

pJ
where x = (x 1 , . .. 1 X m). Therefore, the m) fonn a one-parameter exponential family.
If we use the superscript m to denote the corresponding T, 1], B, and h, then qCm) = mq,
and

(1.6.7)
LT(Xi), B(m)(o) ~ mB(O), h(m)(x) ~ II h(xi).
i=l i=l

Note that the natural sufficient statistic T(m) is one-dimensional whatever be m. For
example, if X = (Xl, ... 1 X m ) is a vector of independent and identically distributed
pi
P(O) random variables and m ) is the family of distributions of x, then the m ) fonn a pi
one-parameter exponential family with natural sufficient statistic T(m)(x) = I Xi. I:::n
Some other important examples are summarized in the following table. We leave the
proof of these assertions to the reader.

TABLE 1.6.1
Family of
distributions .. 1)(0) T(x)
N(I', ,,2) ,,' fixed 1"/'" x
I' fixed -1/2,, (x.-- Il)"
r(p, .\) p fixed -.\ x
.\ fixed (p 1) log x
(3(r,8) r fixed (s 1) 10g(l x)
s fixed (r 1) logx

The statistic T(m) (X I, ... , X m ) corresponding to the one-parameter exponential fam-


ily of distributions of a sample from any of the foregoin~ is just I:::n
1 T(Xd.
In our first Example 1.6.1 the sufficient statistic T :m)(x1, . ,Xm ) = I::n
I Xi is
distributed as P(mO). This family of Poisson distIibutions is one-parameter exponential
whatever be m. In the discrete case we can establish the following general result.

Theorem 1.6.1. Let {Pe } be a one-parameter exponential family of discrete distributions


with corresponding functions T. fl. B. and h, then the family of distributions of the statis-
tic T(X) is a one-parameter exponential family of discrete distributions whose frequency
functions may be written

h'Wexp{1)(O)t - B(O)}

for suitable h * .
52 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Proof. By definition,

P9[T(x) = tl L p(x,8)
{x:T(x)=t}

L h(x) exp[~(8)T(x) - B(8)] ( 1.6.8)


{x:T(x)=t}

exp[~(8)t - B(8)]{ L h(x)}.


{x:T{x)=t}

Ifwe let h'(t) ~ L:{"T(x)~t} h(x), the result follows. 0


A similar theorem holds in the continuous case if the distributions ofT(X) are them-
selves continuous.
Canonical exponential families. We obtain an important and useful
reparametrization of the exponential family (1.6.1) by letting the model be indexed by
1} rather than 8. The exponential family then has the form

q(x,1}) = h(x)exp[1}T(x) - A(~)I, x E X c Rq (1.6.9)

where A(1}) = logJ ... Jh(x)exp[1}T(x)]dx in the continuous case and the integral is
replaced by a sum in the discrete case. If 8 E e, then A(1}) must be finite, if q is definable.
Let E be the collection of all 1} such that A(~) is finite. Then as we show in Section 1.6.2,
E is either an interval or all of R and the class of models (1.6.9) with 1} E E contains the
class of models with 8 E 8. The model given by (1.6.9) with 1} ranging over E is called the
canonical one-parameter exponential family generated by T and h. is called the natural
parameter space and T is called the natural sufficient statistic.
Example 1.6.1. (continued). The Poisson family in canonical form is

q(x,1}) = (1(x!)exp{1}x-exp[1}]}, x E {O,1,2, ... },

where 1} = log 8,
00 00

exp{A(1})} = L(e"' (x!) = L(e")X (x! = exp(e"),


x=o x=o
andE = R. o
Here is a useful result.
Theorem 1.6.2. If X is distributed according to (1.6.9) and ~ is an Ihlerior point of E, the
moment-generating function o[T(X) exists and is given by

M(s) ~ exp[A(s + 1}) - A(1})1

for s in some neighborhood 0[0.


Section 1.6 Exponential Families 53

Moreover,
E(T(X)) ~ A'(1]), Var(T(X)) ~ A"(1]),

Proof. We give the proof in the continuous case. We compute

M(s) = E(exp(sT(X))) ~ J'" J h(x)exp[(s + 1])T(x) - A(1])]dx

= {exp[A(s + 1]) - A(1])]} J'" J h(x)exp[(s + 1])T(x) - A(s + 1])Jdx


= exp[A(s + 1]) - A(1])]
because the last factor, being the integral of a density, is one. The rest of the theorem
follows from the moment-enerating property of M(s) (see Section A.12). 0
,<or
, Here is a typical application of this result.
Example 1.6.4 Suppose X 1> , X n is a sample from a population with density

p(x,8) ~ (x/8 2)exp(_x 2/28 2), x> 0,8 > O.


This is known as the Rayleigh distribution. It is used to model the density of "time until
failure" for certain types of equipment. Now
n n
p(x,8) = (il(x;j8 2))exp(- I>U282)
i=l ~=1

n 1 n
= (il xi)exp[202 LX; -nlog0 J. 2

i=1 i=l

Here 1] = -1/20 2, 02 ~ -1/21], B(O) = n log 82 and A(1]) = -nlog(-21]). Therefore,


the natural sufficient statistic E~ 1 xl has mean -nit} =
2n(j2 and variance nlt}2
4n04 . Direct computation of these moments is more complicated. 0

1.6.2 The Multiparameter Case


Our discussion of the "natural form" suggests that one-parameter exponential families are
naturally indexed by a one-dimensional real parameter fJ and admit a one-dimensional suf-
ficient statistic T(x). More generally, Koopman, Pitman, and Dannois were led in their
investigations to the following family of distributions. which is naturally indexed by a k-
dimensional parameter and admit a k-dimensional sufficient statistic.
A family of distrib~tioos {PO: 0 E 8}, e
c R k , is said to be a k-parameter expo-
nential family, if there exist real-valued functions 171, .. _ ,17k and B of 6, and real-valued
functions T 1, ... 1 Tk, h on Rq such that the density (frequency) functions of the Po may
be written as. '
k
p(x,O) = h(x) exp[L 1]j(O)Tj (x) - 8(0)], x E X c Rq. (1.6.10)
j=1
I'
54 Statistical Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

By Theorem 1.3.1, the vector T(X) = (T,(X) ... ,TdX))T is sufficient. It will be
referred to as a natural sufficient statistic of the family.
Again, suppose X = (Xl,'" .Xm ) where the Xi are independent and identically
distributed and their common distribution ranges over a k~parameter exponential family
given by (1.6.10). Then the distributions of X form a k-parameter exponential family with
natural sufficient statistic
m m

TCm)(x) = (LTl(Xi), ... ,LTk(Xi ))


i=l t=1

Example 1.6.5. The Normal Family. Suppose lhat P, = N(I", ,,'), e ~ {(I", ,,') : -00 <
J1 < 00, (]"2 > O}. The density of Po may be written as

f1 x2 1 J12 2
p(x,O) =exp[",x - 2,,' - 2(", +log(27r" )], (1.6.11)

which corresponds to a twO-parameter exponential family with q = I,Ot = fl, 8 2 = (]"2,


and
I" 1
2' Tl(x) = x, 1)2(0) = --2" T,(x) = x',
"1 1"' "
B(O) 2 (", + log(27r"', h(x) = I.
If we observe a sample X = (X" ... , X m ) from a N(I", ,,') population, then the
preceding discussion leads us to the natural sufficient statistic
m m

(LXi,LX,'),
i=l i=1

which we obtained in the previous section (Example 1.5.4). 0


Again it will be convenient to consider the "biggest" families, letting the model be
indexed by 71 = (fJI, ... ,fJk)T rather than e.
Thus, the canonical k-parameter exponential
family generated by T and h is

q(x,'l) = h(x)exp{TT(x)'l- A('l)},x E X c Rq

where T(x) = (T1 (x), ... ,Tk(x)f and, in the conlinuous case,

,,
I In the discrete case, A(71) is defined in the same way except integrals over Rq are replaced
!
by sums. In either case, we define the natural parameter space as

t: = ('l E R k : -00 < A('l) < oo}.


Section 1.6 Exponential Families 55

Example 1.6.5. (N(/" (7') continued}. In this example. k ~ 2, TT(x)(x. x') = =


(T,(x),T,(x), ~l ~ /,/(7', ~, = -1/2(7', A(1/) ~ ~[(-~U2~,) + log(rr/- ~2)],
h(x) = I andt: ~ R x R- = {(~1,~2): ~l E R,~, < OJ.
Example 1.6.6. Linear Regression. Suppose a<; in Examples 1.1.4 and 1.5.5 that Y I , . .. , Y n
are independent, Yi rv N(J-li, a 2 ), with J.ti = f31 + (32Zi, i = 1, ... , n. From Exam~
pIe 1.5.5, the density of Y = (Yb ... I yn)T can be put in canonical form with k = 3,
T(Y) ~ (EY"EY,',EziY,)T,~l= (3,/(7','12 ~ (3,/(7',~3 ~ -1/2(7',

A(1/) = 4n[~:+m'~5+z~1~'+2Iog(rr/-~3)],
~3

and t: = {(~1,'I2,~3): ~l E R,~, E R,~3 < OJ, where m, = n-'Ezr


Example 1.6.7. Multinomial Trials. We observe the outcomes of n independent trials
where each trial can end up in one of k possible categories. We write the outcome vector
as X = (Xl, ... ,Xn)'r where the Xi are i.id. as X and the sample space of each Xi
is the k categories {I, 2, ... ,kj. Let T;(x) = L:~ I l[X i = j], and AJ ~ P(X i ~ j).
Then p(x, A) = I1:~1 AJ'(X), A E A, where A is the simplex {A E R k : 0 < A; <
l,j = 1, ... ,k, L7-1 Aj = I}. It will often be more convenient to work with unrestricted
parameters. In this example, we can achieve this by the reparametrization
k
Aj = eO] /2:~ e Oj ,j = 1, ... ,k, 0. E R k .
j=l

Now we can write the likelihood as


k k
qo(x, 0) ~ exp{L ,,;~(x) - n log L exp(,,;)j.
j=l j=1

This is a k-parameter canonical exponential family generated by TIl"" Tk and h(x) =


II~ I l[Xi E {I, ... , k}] with canonical parameter 0. and t: = Rk . However 0. is not
identifiable because qo(x, 0 + el) ~ qo(x, 0) for 1 = (1, ... , IV
and all c. This can be
remedied by considering

~j = log(A;/Ak) = "; - "k. I <j < k -1, and rewriting


k-l
q(x, 1/) =exp{T'f._l)(x)1/-nlog(l + Le"'))
j=1

where
56 Statistical Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Note that q(x, 1]) is a k - 1 parameter canonical exponential family generated by T (k -1)
and h(x) = rr~ 1 l[xi E {I, ... , k}] with canonical parameter TJ and = Rk~ 1. More-
over, the parameters 'Ii = 10g(P'I[X = jI!P'IIX ~ k]), 1 <j < k - 1, are identifiable.
Note that the model for X is unchanged. 0

1.6,3 Building Exponential Families

Submodels

A submodel of a k-parameter canonical exponential family {q(x, 17); 11 E C R k } is


an exponential family defined by

p(x, 0) ~ q(x, 1/(0) (1.6.12)

where (J E e c R1, I < k, and 1] is a map from e to a subset of R k Thus, if X is discrete


taking on k values as in Example 1.6.7 and X = (X t, . " , X n ) T where the Xi are i.i.d.
as X, then all models for X are exponential families because they are submodels of the
multinomial trials model.

Affine transformations

UP is the canonical family generated by T kx 1 and hand M is the affine transformation


from Rk to RI defined by
,I'
M(T) ~ MexkT + hex"
it is easy to see that the family generated by M(T(X and h is the subfamily of P corre-
sponding to

and
1/(0) = MTO.
e
Similarly, if c Re and 1/( 0) = BkxeO C R k , then the resulting submodel of P above is
a submodel of the exponential family generated by BTT(X) and h. See Problem 1.6.17
for details. Here is an example of affine transformations of 6 and T.
,
" Example 1,6,8. Logistic Regression. Let Y; be independent binomial, B(n;, Ai), 1 < i <
n. If the Ai are unrestricted, 0 < Ai < 1, 1 < i < n, this, from Example 1.6.2. is
an n-pararneter canonical exponential family with Yi =integers from 0 to ni generated
by T(Yt ,.. ,Yn ) ~ Y, h(y) = 07 I ( ~; ) 1(0 < Vi < n;). Here 'Ii = log 1\.'
A(1/) = L:7 1 ni 10g(l + e'). However, let Xt < ... < X n be specified levels and
(1.6.13)
Section 1.6 Exponential Families 57

This is a linear transformation TJ(8) = B nxz 8 corresponding to B nx2 = (1, x), where 1
is (1, ... ,1)T,x = (Xl, ... ,xn)T. SetM = B T , then this is the two-parameter canonical
exponential family generated by lYIY = (L~l. I ii, L:~ 1 Xl yi)T and h with

A(8,,8,) = L ni log(1 + exp(8, + 8,Xi)).


i=I

This model is sometimes applied in experiments to determine the toxicity of a sub-


stance. The Yi represent the number of animals dying out of ni when exposed to level Xi of
the substance.!t is assumed that each animal has a random toxicity threshold X such that
death results if and only if a substance level on or above X is applied. Assume also:
(a) No interaction between animals (independence) in relation to drug effects
(b) The distribution of X in the animal population is logistic; that is,

PIX < xl ~ [1 + exp{ -(8, + 8,x)W', (1.6.14)

8, E R,8, > O. Then (and only then),


log(P[X < xl!(1 - PIX < x])) ~ 8, + 8,x
and (1.6.13) holds. o
Curved exponential families
Exponential families (1.6.12) with the range of 1J( 8) restricted to a subset of dimension
l with I < k - 1, are called curved exponential families provided they do not form a
canonical exponential family in the 8 parametrization.
Example 1.6.9. Gaussian with Fixed Signal-to-Noise Ratio. In the nonnal case with
Xl, .. ',Xn i.i.d. N(J-l-,a 2 ), suppose the ratio IJ-l-I/a, which is called the coefficient of
variation or signal-to-noise ratio, is a known constant '\0 > O. Then, with B = p" we can
write

where T 1 = ~~ I Xi, T 2 = L:~ 1 X;, 'fJ1(B) = '\50-1 and 'fJ2(0) = -~'\5B-2. This is a
curved exponential family with l = 1. 0
In Example 1.6.8, the 8 parametrization has dimension 2, which is less than k = n
when n > 3. However, p(x, 8) in the 8 parametrization is a canonical exponential family,
so it is not a curved family.
Example 1.6.10. Location-Scale Regression. Suppose that YI ~ ... , Y n are independent,
}Ii N(J1.i, a;). If each Iii ranges over R and each a; ranges over (0,00), this is by
;'V

Example 1.6.5 a 2n-paramctercanonical exponential family model with fJi = P,i/a;, and
l1n+i = -1/2a;, i = 1, ... , n, generated by

T(Y) = (Y" ... , Yn, Y,', ... , y;)T


58 Statistical Models. Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

and h(Y) = 1. Next suppose that (J-Li, a;) depend on the value Zi of some covariate, say,

for unknown parameters 8 1 E R, 8, E R, 83 > 0 (e.g., Bickel, 1978; Carroll and


Ruppert, 1988, Sections 2.1-2.5; and Snedecor and Cochran, 1989, Section 15.10). For
8 = (8 1 ,8,,8,), the map 1/(0) is

Because L:~ 11]i(6)Yi + L:~ i17n+i(6)Y? cannot be written in the fonn


~;_I11;(O)Tj'(Y) for some 11;(0), TJ'(Y), then p(y, 0) ~ q(y,1/(O)) as defined in
(6.1.12) is not an exponential family model, but a curved exponential family model with
1=3. 0

Models in which the variance Var(}'i) depends on i are called heteroscedastic whereas
models in which Var(Yi ) does not depend on i are called homoscedastic. Thus, Examples
1.6.10 and 1.6.6 are heteroscedastic and homoscedastic models, respectively.
We return to curved exponential family models in Section 2.3.

Supermode1s
We have already noted that the exponential family structure is preserved under i.i.d.
sampling. Even more is true. Let Yj , 1 < j < n, be independent, ~- E Yj c Rq, with an
exponential family density

Then Y = (Y1, ... , yn)T is modeled by the exponential family generated by T(Y)
~; 1 Tj(Y,) and n; 1 h'(YJ)' with pararneter1/(O), and B(O) = ~; 1 Bj(O).

In Example 1.6.8 note that (1.6.13) exhibits Y, as being distributed according to a two-
parameter family generated by Tj(Y,) = (Yj,xjYj ) and we can apply the supennode!
approach to reach the same conclusion as before.

1.6.4 Properties of Exponential Families


Theorem 1.6.1 generalizes directly to k-parameter families as does its continuous analogue.
We extend the statement of Theorem 1.6.2.
Recall from Section B.5 that for any random vector Tkxl, we define
I
Ii, M(s) = Ee sTT
I,

as the moment-generating function, and


Section 1.6 Expbnential Families 59

V.r(T) = IICov(7~, 1O)llkxk.


Theorem 1.6.3. Let P be a canonicaL k-parameter exponential famiLy generated by (T, h)
with corresponding natural parameter space E and function A(11). Then

(a) E is convex

(b) A: E -----) R is convex

(c) If E has nonempty interior in R k and'TJo E E, then T(X) has under 110 a moment-
generating function M given by

M(s) ~ exp{A('7o + s) - A('7o)}

vaLidfor aLL s such that 110 + 5 E E. Since 110 is an interior point this set of5 includes
a baLL about O.

Corollary 1.6.1. Under the conditions ofTheorem 1.6.3

V.r'7o T(X) = A('7o)


. 8A 8A T" f/J. A
where A( '70) = (8", ('70), ... , 8", ('70)) ,A('70) = II 8".8", ('70) II
The corollary follows immediately from Theorem B.5.1 and Theorem 1.6.3(c).
Proof of Theorem 1.6.3. We prove (b) first. Suppose '70' '71 E t: and 0 < a < 1. By the
Holder inequality (B.9.4), for any u(x), v(x), h(x) > 0, T, S > 0 with ~ + ~ = 1,

J u(x)v(x)h(x)dx < (J ur(x)h(x)dx)~(Jv'(x)h(x)dx)~.

Substitute ~ ~ a, ~ = 1 - a, u(x) ~ exp(a'7;T(x)), vex) = exp1 - a)'7rT(x)) and


take logs of both sides to obtain, (with 00 pennitted on either side),

A(U'71 + (1 - a)'72) < aA('7l) + (1 - a)A('72) (1.6.15)

Which is (b). If '7" '72 E t: the right-hand side of (1.6.15) is finite. Because

J exp('7 TT (x))h(x)dx > 0

for all '7 we conclude from (1.6.15) that a'7, + (1 - a)'72 E t: and (a) follows. Fiually (c)
is proved in exactly the same way as Theorem 1.6.2. 0
The formulae of Corollary 1.6.1 give a classical result in Example 1.6.6.
60 Statistical Models, Goads, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

Example 1.6.7. (continued). Here, using the a: parametrization,

k
A(a) ~ nlog(Le"')
j=l

and
k
E>.(Tj(X = P>.lx ~ j] = AJ ~ e"'ILe a ,
f=l

,;

o !

The rank of an exponential family I


Evidently every k-parameter exponential family is also k'-dimensional with k' > k.
I, However, there is a minimal dimension.
An exponential family is of rank k iff the generating statistic T is k-dimensional
II
and 1, T, (X)". , , Tk(X) are linearly independent with positive probability. Formally,
Ii
,"I P7)[L;~, ajTj(X) = ak+d < 1 unless all aj are O.
J
11 Note that PO(A) = 0 or Po (A) < 1 for some 0 iff the corresponding statement holds
i,, for all 9 because 0 < pX,~~)
p:x, 2'
< 00 for all x, 9" 9, such that h(x) > O.
Going back to Example 1.6.7 we can see that the multinomial family is of rank at most
k - 1. It is intuitively clear that k - 1 is in fact its rank and this is seen in Theorem
1.6.4 that follows. Sintilarly, in Example 1.6.8, ifn ~ 1, and ry,(9) = 9, + 9,x, we are
writing the one-parameter binomial family corresponding to Yl as a two-parameter family
with generating statistic (Y1 , Xl Y1 ). But the rank of the family is 1 and 8 1 and 82 are not
identifiable. However, if we consider Y with n'> 2 and Xl < X n the family as we have
seen remains of rank < 2 and is in fact of rank 2. Our discussion suggests a link between
rank and identifiability of the 'TJ parameterization. We establish the connection and other
fundamental relationships in Theorem 1.6.4.
Theorem 1.6.4. Suppose P = (q(x,7); 7) E f} is a canonical exponential/amily gener-
ated by (TkXI ' h) with natural parameter space e such that E is open. Then the following
are equivalent.

(i) P is a/rank k.

(ii) 7) is a parameter (identifiable).

(iii) Var7)(T) is positive definite.


Section 1.6 Exponential Families 61

(iv) 1) ~ A(1)) is 1-1 onto

(v) A is strictly convex on E.

Note that, by Theorem 1.6.3, because E is open, A is defined on all ofE.


Proof. We give a detailed proof for k = 1. The proof for k > 1 is then sketched with
details left to a problem. Let ~ (-) denote "(.) is false." Then
~(i) '* P"[a,T ~ a2] = 1 for al of O. This is equivalent to Var"(T) ~ 0 '*~ (iii)
f"V(ii) {=} There exist T}I -=I=- 1J2 such that F Tll = Pm'

Equivalently

exp{r/,T(x) - A(TJI)}h(x) ~ exp{TJ2T(x) - A(TJ2))h(x).

Taking logs we obtain (TJI - TJ2)T(X) = A(TJ2) - A(TJ,) with probability 1 =~(i). We,
thus, have (i) - (ii) = (iii). Now (iii) =} A"(TJ) > 0 by Theorem 1.6.2 and, hence, A'(TJ)
:;'-t
,
'" .,,, is strictly monotone increasing and 1-1. Conversely, A"(1]O) = 0 for some 1]0 implies
.,
,
','
, ...~>
F!~
", ..
that T =
c, with probability 1, for all T}, by our remarks in the discussion of rank, which
implies that A"(TJ) = 0 for all TJ and, hence, A' is constant. Thus, (iii) = (iv) and the same
discussion shows that (iii) - (v).

Proof ofthe general case sketched


I, ~ (i) =~ (iii)

~ (i) = P1)[aT T = cJ ~ 1 for some a of 0, all 1)


~ (iii) = a T Var1)(T)a = Var1)(aT T) = 0 for some a of 0, all 1) = (~i)

II. ~ (ii) _~ (i)

~ (ii) = P1), ~ P1)o some 1), of 1)0 Let


Q = (P1)o+o(1),-1)o) : 1)0 + c(1), -1)0) E n
Q is the exponential family (one-parameter) generated by (1)1 - 1)o)TT. Apply the case
k = 1 to Q to get ~ (ii) =~ (i).
III. (iv) '" (v) = (tii)
Properties (iv) and (v) are equivalent to the statements holding for every Q defined as
previously for arbitrary 1)0' 1),. 0

Corollary 1.6.2. Suppose tlult the conditions of Theorem 1.6.4 hold and P is of rank k.
Then
(a) P may be uniquely parametrized by "'(1)) =
E1)T(X) where". ranges over A(I'),
(b) logq(x, 1)) is a strictly concavefunction of1) On 1'.

Proof. This is just a restatement of (iv) and (v) of the theorem. 0


62 Statistical Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

The relation in (a) is sometimes evident and the j.t parametrization is close to the initial
parametrization of classical P. Thus. the 8(11) 0) family is parametrized by E(X), where
X is the Bernoulli trial, the N(/l,"5) family by E(X). For {N(/" "')}, E(X,X') =
(J-L,a 2 + J12), which is obviously a 1-1 function of (J1,a 2 ). However, the relation in (a)
may be far from obvious (see Problem 1.6.21). The corollary will prove very important in
estimation theory. See Section 2.3. We close the present discussion of exponential families
with the following example.
Example 1.6.11. The p Van'ate Gaussian Family. An important exponential family is based
on the multivariate Gaussian distributions of Section 8.6. Recall that Y px 1 has a p variate
Gaussian distribution, N p (1-J., E), with mean J.tpx 1 and positive definite variance covariance
matrix L::pxp' iff its density is
I
f(Y, Jl, E) = Idet(E) 1- 1 2
/ ,,-p/2 exp{ - 2 (Y - Jl)TE- 1 (Y - Jl)}. (1.6.16)

Rewriting the exponent we obtain

10gf(Y,Jl, E) _~yTE-Iy + (E-1JllY


2
(1.6.17)
I
2 (log Idet(E)1 + JlT IP
E- Jl) - 2 log".

The first two terms on the right in (1.6.17) can be rewritten


p p p
-( 2: aijYiYj + ~ 2: aii r:2 ) + L(2: aij /lj)Yi
1 <i<j~p i=l i=l j=l

where E- 1 '" 11"';11, revealing that this is a k = p(p + 3)/2 parameter exponential
family with statistics (Yi, ... ,Yp,{Y;ljh<i<;~p), h(Y) - I, 9 ~ (Jl,E), B(9) =
! (log Idet(E) I+JlTE-l Jl). By our supermodel discussion, ifY 1, ... , Y n are iid Np(Jl, E),
then X - (Y), ... ,Yn)T follows the k = p(p + 3)/2 parameter exponential family with
T = (EiYi , ~iYi Vi), where we identify the second element ofT, which is a p x p sym-
metric matrix, with its distinct p(p + I) /2 entries. It may be shown (Problem 1.6.29) that
T (and h = I) generate this family and that the rank of the family is indeed p(p + 3)/2,
generalizing Example 1.6.5, and that (; is open, so that Theorem 1.6.4 applies. 0

1.6.5 Conjugate Families of Prior Distributions


In Section 1.2 we considered beta prior distributions for the probability of success in n
Bernoulli trials. This is a special case of conjugate families of priors, families to which the
posterior after sampling also belongs.
Suppose Xl, ... ,Xn is a sample from the k-parameter exponential family (1.6.10),
and, as we always do in the Bayesian context, write p(x 19) for p(x, 0). Then
n n
p(xI9) = III h(x,)] eXP{L 1/;(9) LT;(Xi) - nB(9)}. (1.6.18)
i=l j=l i=l

-_._- - - - - - _.......
Section 1.6 Exponential Families 63

where () E e, which is k~dimensional. A conjugate exponential family is obtained from


(1.6.18) by letting 11. and t j = L~ 1 Tj(xd, j = 1, ... , k. be "parameters" and treating ()
as the variable of interest. That is. let t = (tl, ... , tk+ I) T and

w(t)
1=
_='" 1=
_= eXP{hiJ~J(O)' k
ik+JB(II)}dO JdOk
(1.6.19)

o {(iJ, ... ,fk+Jl,O<W(tJ, ... ,fkIJ)<oo)


with integrals replaced by sums in the discrete case. We assume that rl is nonempty (see
Problem 1.6.36), then
Proposition 1.6.1. The (k + I)-parameter exponential/amity given by
k
",(0) ~ exp{L ~j(O)fj - fk+IB(O) -logw(t)) (1.6.20)
j=1

where t = (fJ,'" , tk+l) E 0, is a conjugate prior to p(xIO) given by (1.6.18).


Proof. If p(xIO) is given by (1.6.18) and" by (1.6.20), then
k n

,,(Olx) ex p(xlO)",(O) ex exp{L ~J(O)(LT;(Xi)+ f;) - (lk+1 + n)B(O))


j=1 i=1

ex ".(0),
(1.6.21)

where

S = (SI,"" Sk+l)T = t}
n n
+ ~TdxiL ... , ik + ~Tk(Xi)' tk+l + 11.
)T
(

and ex indicates that the two sides are proportional functions of (). Because two probability
densities that are proportional must be equal, 1r(6jx) is the member of the exponential
family (1.6.20) given by the last expression in (1.6.21) and our assertion follows. 0
Remark 1.6.1. Note that (1.6.21) is an updating formula in the sense that as data Xl, ... , X n
become available, the parameter t of the prior distribution is updated to s = (t + a), where
a = (I:~ 1 T1 (Xi),'''' I:~ 1 Tk(Xi), n)T D

It is easy to check that the beta distributions are obtained as conjugate to the binomial
in this way.
Example 1.6.12. Suppose Xl, ... ,Xn is a N(O,u5) sample, where u6 is known and (j
is unknown. To choose a prior distribution for e, we consider the conjugate family of the
model defined by (1.6.20). Forn = I
02Ox
p(xIO) ex exp{ 2 - -2)' (1.6.22)
Uo 2uo
64 Statistical Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

This is a one-parameter exponential family with

The conjugate two-parameter exponential family given by (1.6.20) has density

(1.6.23)

Upon completing the square, we obtain

t2 t1 2
1r,(O) <X exp{ - - ( 0 - -) } (1.6.24)
2a5 h

Thus, 1r, (0) is defined only for t, > 0 and all t I and is the N (tI!t" (1~ It,) density. Our
conjugate family, therefore, consists of all N(TJo, rJ) distributions where Tlo varies freely
and "g is positive.
If we start with aN(f/o, 75) prior density, we must have in the (t l t2) parametrization

(1.6.25)

By (1.6.21), if we observe EX, = s, the posterior has a density (1.6.23) with


, 2
(70 1]0(10
t,(n) = , . + n, tl(S) = 2 + S.
TO TO

Using (1.6.24), we find that 1r(Olx) is a normal density with mean

Jl(s,n) = t,(S) =
t,(n)
(gTO +n)-I[s+ 1]0~~1
TO
(1.6.26)

and variance

(1.6.27)

Note that we can rewrite (1.6.26) intuitively as

( 1.6.28)

where W, = nTg(n)I(1~, W, = rg(n)lrg so that w, = 1 - W,. 0


These formulae can be generalized to the case X; i.i.d. Np(O, Eo), 1 < i < n, Eo
known, (J Np(TJo, 761) where '10 varies over RP, Tg is scalar with TO > 0 and I is the
f'V

p x p identity matrix (Problem 1.6.37). Moreover, it can be shown (Problem 1.6.30) that
the Np()o" f) family with )0, E RP and f symmetric positive definite is a conjugate family
Section 1.6 Exponential Families 65

to Np (8 , Eo),but a richer one than we've defined in (1.6.20) except for p = 1 because
Np(A, r) is a p(p + 3)/2 rather than a p + I parameter family. In fact, the conditions
of Proposition 1.6.1 are often too restrictive. In the one-dimensional Gaussian case the
members of the Gaussian conjugate family are unimodal and symmetric and have the same
shape. It is easy to see that one can consUUct conjugate priors for which one gets reasonable
formulae for the parameters indexing the model and yet have as great a richness of the shape
variable as one wishes by considering finite mixtures of members of the family defined in
(1.6.20). See Problems 1.6.31 and 1.6.32.

Discussion
Note that the uniform U( (I, 2, ... , O}) model of Example 1.5.3 is not covered by this
theory. The natural sufficient statistic max( X 1 ~ ... ,Xn ), which is one-dimensional what-
ever be the sample size, is not of the form L~ 1 T(Xi). In fact, the family of distributions
in this example and the family U(O, B) are not exponential. Despite the existence of classes
of examples such as these, starting with Koopman, Pitman, and Darmois, a theory has been
built up that indicates that under suitable regularity conditions families of distributions,
which admit k-dimensional sufficient statistics for all sample sizes, must be k-parameter
exponential families. Some interesting results and a survey of the literature may be found
in Brown (1986). Problem 1.6.10 is a special result of this type.
Summary. {PO: 0 E 8}, 8 C R k , is a k-parameter exponential/amity of distribu-
tions if there are real-valued functions 'T}I , ,'T}k and B on e, and real-valued functions
TI, .. " Tk, h on Rq such that the density (frequency) function of Pe can be written as
k
p(x, 0) = h(x) expl2:>j(I1)Ti (x) - B(O)], x E X c Rq. (1.6.29)
j=1

T(X) =(Tl (X), ... , T k (X)) is called the natural sufficient statistic of the family. The
canonical k-parameter exponentialfamily generated by T and h is

where
A(7J) ~ log J:...J: h(x)exp{TT(x)7J}dx

in the continuous case, with integrals replaced by sums in the discrete case. The set

is called the natural parameter space. The set E is convex, the map A ; E ---1 R is convex.
e e,
If bas a nonempty interior in R k and '10 E then T(X) has for X ~ P7Jo the moment-
generating function
.;,(s) = exp{A(7Jo + s) - A(7Jo)}
for all s such that '10 + s is in e.
Moreover E 7Jo [T(X)] = A(7Jo) and Var7Jo[T(X)]
A( '10) where A and A denote the gradient and Hessian of A.
66 Statistical Models. Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

An exponential family is said to be of rank k if T is k-dimensional and 1, T" ... l T k


are linearly independent with positive Po probability for some 8 E e. If P is a canonical
exponential family with E open, then the following are equivalent:

(i) P is of rank k,

(ii) '7 is identifiable,

(iii) Var'7(T) is positive definite,

(iv) the map '7 ~ A('7) is I ' Ion 1',

(v) A is strictlY convex on f.

A family F of priOf distributions for a parameter vector () is called a conjugate family


of priors to p(x I 8) if the posterior distribution of () given x is a member of F. The
(k + 1),parameter exponential family
k
",(0) = exp{L1)j(O)t) - B(O)tk+l -logw}
j=l

where
w = 1:" -1: exp{l:;1)) (O)t j - B(O)}dO,

and
t = (t" ... , tk+1) E 0 ~ {(t" ... , tk+.) E R k+l : 0 < w < oo},
is conjugate to the exponential family p(xl9) defined in (1.6.29).

1.7 PROBLEMS AND COMPLEMENTS


Problems for Section 1,1
1. Give a formal statement of the following models identifying the probability laws of
the data and the parameter space. State whether the model in question is parametric or
nonparametric.
(a) A geologist measures the diameters of a large number n of pebbles in an old stream
bed. Theoretical considerations lead him to believe that the logarithm of pebble diameter is
normally distributed with mean J.L and variance a 2 . He wishes to use his observations to ob-
Ii tain some infonnation about J.L and a 2 but has in advance no knowledge of the magnitudes
of the two parameters.
I
II
(b) A measuring instrument is being used to obtain n independent determinations of
a physical constant J.L. Suppose that the measuring instrument is known to be biased to
the positive side by 0.1 units. Assume that the errors are otherwise identically distributed
nonnal random variables with known variance.
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 67

(c) In part (b) suppose that the amount of bias is positive but unknown. Can you per-
ceive any difficulties in making statements about f1- for this model?
(d) The number of eggs laid by an insect follows a Poisson distribution with unknown
mean A. Once laid, each egg has an unknown chance p of hatching and the hatChing of one
egg is independent of the hatching of the others. An entomologist studies a set of n such
insects observing both the number of eggs laid and the number of eggs hatching for each
nest.
2. Are the following parametrizations identifiable? (Prove or disprove.)
(a) The parametrization of Problem 1.1.1(c).
(b) The parametrization of Problem 1.1.1(d).
(e) The parametrization of Problem l.t.l(d) if the entomologist observes only the num-
ber of eggs hatching but not the number of eggs laid in each case.
3. Which of the following parametrizations are identifiable? (Prove or disprove.)
(a) Xl, ... ,Xp are independent with X~ ruN(ai + v, 0- 2 ).

and Po is the distribution of X = (X ll .. . ,Xp ).


(b) Same as (a) with Q = (all' .. , Q p ) restricted to
p

{(al,. ,ap ) : Lai = O}.


i=l

(c) X and Y are independent N (I' I ,,,2) and N (1'2, ,,2), B = (1'1, 1'2) and we observe
Y -X.
(d) Xi;, i = 1, ... ,p; j = 1, ... , bare independeht with Xi; ~ N(l'ij,,,2) where
fLij = v + ai + Aj. e = (al,"" a p , At. ... , Ab, v, 0- 2 ) and Po is the distribution of
Xll, ... ,Xpb .
(e) Same as (d) with (Qt, ... , Q p ) and (A I , ... 1 Ab) restricted to the sets where
l:f I (Xi = 0 and l:~~1 A; = o.
4. (a) Let U be any random variable and V be any other nonnegative random variable.
Show that

Fu+v(t) < Fu(t) for every t.

(If F x and F y are distribution functions such that Fx(t) < Fy(t) for every t, then X is
said to be stochastically larger than Y.)
(b) As in Problem 1.1.1 describe formaHy the foHowing model. Two groups of nl and
n2 individuals, respectively, are sampled at random from a very large population. Each
,:";.. ,
68 Statistical Models. Goals. and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

.'
-":,. I member of the second (treatment) group is administered the same dose of a certain drug
believed to lower blood pressure and the blood pressure is measured after 1 hour. Each

"j member of the first (control) group is administered an equal dose of a placebo and then
has the blood pressure measured after 1 hour. It is known that the drug either has no effect
I, or lowers blood pressure, but the distribution of blood pressure in the population sampled
:1 before and after administration of the drug is quite unknown.
5. The number n of graduate students entering a certain department is recorded. In each
of k subsequent years the number of students graduating and of students dropping out is
recorded. Let N i be the number dropping out and M i the number graduating during year i.
i = 1, ... , k. The following model is proposed.

P8[N I = n11MI = mI, ,Nk = nk, M k = mk]


I
n. nl n", ml mk r
, I! I ! fl.I ... J.Lk VI ... V k P
nl. .. nkmI .... mkr.

where

J.LI + ... + fl.k + VI + ... + Vk + P = 1, 0 < J.Li < 1, 0 < Vi < 1, 1 < i < k
ni + ... + nk + ml + ... + mk + r = n
and (J = (J.LI, ... , Mk, VI, ... , Vk) is unknown.
(a) What are the assumptions underlying this model'?
(b) (J is very difficult to estimate here if k is large. The simplification J.Li = 71"(1 -
M)i-IJ.L, Vi = (1 -11")(1 ~ v)i-I V for i = 1, ... ,k is proposed where 0 < 71" < I,
o < J1 < 1, 0 < V < 1 are unknown. What assumptions underlie the simplification?
6. Which of the following models are regular? (Prove or disprove.)
(a) p. is the distribution of X when X is unifonn on (0,0), e = (0, (0).
(b)P. is the distribution of X whenXis unifonnon {O, I, 2, ... ,O}, e = {J,2, ... }.
(e) Suppose X ~ N(I', 0'2). Let Y = 1 if X < 1 and Y =X if X > 1. 0 = (1',0'2)
and Po is the distribution of Y.
(d) Suppose the possible control responses in an experiment are 0.1,0.2, ... ,0.9 and
they oecur with frequencies p(0.1),p(0.2), ... ,p(0.9). Suppose the effect of a treatment
is to increase the control response by a fixed amount (J. Let Po be the distribution of a
treatment response.
7. Show that Y - c has the same distribution as -Y + c, if and only if, the density or
frequency function p of Y satisfies p( c + t) ~ p( c - t) fj>r all t. Both Y and p are said to
be symmetric about c.
Hint: IfY - c bas the same distribution as -Y + c, then P(Y < t + c) = P( -Y <
t - c) = PrY > c - t) = 1 - P(Y < c - t).
8, Consider the two sample models of Examples 1.1.3(2) and 1.1.4(1).

-
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 69

(a) Show that if Y ~ X + o(X), o(x) ~ 21' + tl - 2x and X ~ N(J1,"'), then


C() = F(- - tl). That is, the two cases o(x) - tl and o(x) ~ 21' + tl- 2x yield the
same distribution for the data (Xl,'" ,Xn ), (Yl."" Yn ). Therefore, C() = F( - tl)
does not imply the constant treatment effect assumption.
(b) In part (a), suppose X has a distribution F that is not necessarily normal. For what
type ofF is it possible to have C() ~ F(-tl) for both o(x) tlando(x) ~ 2J1+tl-2x?
(e) Suppose that Y ~ X + O(X) where X ~ N(J1,"') and o(x) is continuous. Show
that if we assume that o(x) + x is strictly increasing, then C() ~ F(- - tl) implies that
o(x) = tl.
9. Collinearity: Suppose Yi = L:j:=1 4j{3j + Ci, ci '" N(O, (]"2) independent, 1 < i < n.
LetzJ' = (Zlj, ... ,Znj?'
(a) Show that ({31, ... ,{3p) are identifiable iff Zl, ... ,zp, are not collinear (linearly
independent).

(b) Deduce that (th, . .. , fJp) are not identifiable if n < 1', that is, if the number of
pardffieters is larger than the number of observations.
10. Let X = (min(T, C), I(T < C)) where T, C are independent,

PIT = j] p(j), j = 0, , N,
PIC = j] e(j), i = 0, ,N

and (I', e) vary freely over F ~ {(I', e) : p(j) > 0, e(j) > 0, 0 < j < N, 'Lf op(j) = I,
'Lf 0 r(j) =
I} and N is known. Suppose X I, ... ,Xn are observed i.i.d. according to
the distribution of X.
Sbow that {p(j) : j = 0, ... , N}, {r(j) : j ~ 0, ... , N} are identifiable.
Hint: Consider "hazard rates" for Y =
min(T, C),

PlY = j, Y = T I Y > j].

11. The Scale Model. Positive random variables X and Y satisfy a scale model with
parameter 0 > 0 if P(Y < t) = P(oX < t) for all t > 0, or equivalently. C(t} = F(tjo),
o > 0, t > O.
(a) Show that in this case, log X and log Y satisfy a shift model with parameter log o.
(b) Show that if X and Y satisfy a shift model With parameter tl, then eX and eY
satisfy a scale model with parameter e..6. .

(c) Suppose a scale model holds for X, Y. Let c > 0 be a constant. Does X' = Xc,
Y' = yc satisfy a scale model? Does log X', log y' satisfy a shift model?
12. The Lelunann 1\vo-Sample Model. In Example 1.1.3 let Xl. ... , X m and Yi, .. ., Yn
denote the survival times of two groups of patients receiving treatments A and B. Sx(t) =
,

I'
,I 70 StCitistical Models, Goals, and Performance CriteriCl Chapter 1

~ I,
P(X > t) =1- F(t) and Sy(t) ~ P(Y > t) = 1 - G(t), t > 0, are called the survival
t Ii functions. Survival beyond time t is modeled to occur if the events T} > t, ... Tk > t 1

all occur, where TI", " T k are unobservable and i.i.d. as T with survival function So. For
treatments A and E, k = a and b, respectively.
, (.) Show that Sy(t) = S';{a(t),
,

(b) By extending (bjn) from the rationals to 5 E (0,00), we have the Lehmann model

Sy(t) = si,(t), t > 0, (1.7,1)

, Equivalently, Sy(t) = Sg.(t) with C. ~ a5, t > 0, Show that if So is continuous, then
X' = -log So (X) and Y' ~ -log So(Y) follow an exponential scale model (see Problem
Ll.ll) with scale parameter 5,
Hint: By Problem 8.2,12, So (T) has a U(O, I) distribution; thus, -log So(T) has an
exponential distribution. Also note that P(X > t) ~ Sort).
(c) Suppose that T and Y have densities fort) andg(t), Then h,,(t) = fo(t)jSo(t) and
hy(t) = g(t)jSy(t) are called the hazard rates of To and Y. Moreover, hy(t) = c.ho(t)
is called the Cox proportional hazard model. Show that hy(t) = c.h,,(t) if and only if
Sy(t) = Sg.(t),
13, A proportional hazard model, Let f(t I Zi) denote the density of the survival time Yi of
a patient with covariate vector Zi apd define the regression survival and hazard functions
of Yi as
Sy(t I Zi) = 1~ fry I zi)dy, h(t I Zi) = f(t I Zi)jSy(t I Zi),
Let T denote a survival time with density fo(t) and hazard rate ho(t) = fo(t)j P(T > t),
The Cox proportional hazani model is defined as

h(t I z) = ho(t) exp{g(,l3, z)) (1.7.2)

where ho(t) is called the baseline hazard function and 9 is known except for a vector {3 =
({311 ... I (3p)T of unknowns. The most common choice of 9 is the linear form g({3, z) =
zT,l3. Set C. = exp{g(,l3,z)},
(.) Show that (1. 7,2) is equivalent to Sy (t I z) = sf" (t).
(b) Assume (1.7,2) and that Fo(t) = P(T < t) is known and strictly increasing, Find
, an increasing function Q(t) such that the regression survival function of Y' = Q(Y) does
not depend on ho(t),
I Hint: See Problem 1.1. 12,
(c) Under the assumptions of (b) above, show that there is an increasing function Q'(t)
such that ifYt = Q'(Y,), then

Yi* = g({3, Zj) + cj


for some appropriate j. Specify the distribution of i.

- ------- - - - - -
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 71

Hint: See Problems 1.1.11 and 1.1.12.


14. In Example 1.1.2 with assumptions (t)--{4), the parameter of interest can be character-
ized as the median v = F- l (0.5) or mean I' = J=oo
xdF(x) =
l
Jo
F-l(u)du. Generally,
J1 and v are regarded as centers of the distribution F. When F is not symmetric, J1 may
be very much pulled in the direction of the longer tail of the density, and for this reason,
the median is preferred in this case. Examples are the distribution of income and the distri-
bution of wealth. Here is an example in which the mean is extreme and the median is not.
Suppose the monthly salaries of state workers in a certain state are modeled by the Pareto
distribution with distribution function

F(x,O) 1 - (x/c)-e, x> c


0, x<c
where () > 0 and c = 2,000 is the minimum monthly salary for state workers. Find the
median v and the mean J1 for the values of () where the mean exists. Show how to choose ()
to make J.L - v arbitrarily large.
15. Let Xl, ... ,Xm be i.i.d. F. Yl , ... , Yn be i.i.d. G, wbere the model {(F,G)} is
described by

where 'IjJ is an unknown strictly increasing differentiable map from R to R, '1/1' > 0,
'I/1(oo) = oo, and Zl and Z{ are independent random variables.
(a) Suppose Zl' Z; have a N(O, 1) distribution. Show that both ,p and ~ are identifi
able.
(b) Suppose Zl and Z; have a N(O, ,,2) distribution with ,,2 unknown. Are,p and C.
still identifiable? If not, what parameters are?
Hint: Ca) PIXI < tl = if>(,p(t)).

Problems for Section 1.2


1. Merging Opinions. Consider a parameter space consisting of two points fh and ()2, and
suppose that for given (), an experiment leads to a random variable X whose frequency
function p(x I 0) is given by

O\x 0 1
01 0.8 0.2
O2 0.4 0.6

Let 1f be the prior frequency function of 0 defined by 1f(I1, ) = ~, 1f(O2 ) = ~.

Ca) Find the posterior frequency function 1f(0 I x).


(b) Suppose X" ... , X n are independent with frequency fnnction p(x I 0). Find the
posterior1r(() I Xl," .,X n ). Observe that it depends only on l:~ I Xi
72 Statistical Models. Goals, and Performance CriteriCi Chapter 1

(cj Same as (b) except use the prior 71"1 (0 , ) ~ .25, 71"1 (0 2 ) = .75.
(d) Give the values of P(B = (h I L~l Xi = .5n) for the two priors 7r and 1f} when
n = 2 and 100.
IE7
~

(e) Give the most probable values 8 = arg maxo 7l"(B 1 Xi = k) forthe two priors
~

7f and 71"1. Compare these B's for n = 2 and 100.

(f) Give the set on which the two B's disagree. Show that the probability of this set tends
to zero as n ---t 00. Assume X I'V p(x) = l:;=l1r(B i )p(x I 8i ). For this convergence, does
it matter which prior, 7l" or 11"1. is used in the fonnula for p(x)?
2. Consider an experiment in which, for given (J = B, the outcome X has density p(x
OJ ~ (2x/O'), 0 < x < O. Let 71" denote a prior density for 8.
(3) Find the posterior density of 8 when 71"( 0) ~ 1,0 < 0 < 1.
(b) Find the posterior density of 8 when 71"( OJ = 302 , 0 < 0 < 1.
(c) Find E(81 x) for the two priors in (a) and (b).
(d) Suppose Xl, ... , X n are independent with the same distribution as X. Find the
posteriordensityof8 given Xl = Xl,'" ,Xn = X n when 1r(B) = 1,0 < B < 1.
3. Let X be the number of failures before the first success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials
with probability of success O. Then P.[X ~ k] ~ (1- O)kO, k = 0, 1,2, .... This is called
the geometric distribution (9(0)). Suppose that for given 8 = 0, X has the geometric
distribution
(a) Find the posterior distribution of (J given X = 2 when the prior distribution of (} is
.,
Unllormon {'13}
4'2'4 .
(b) Relative to (a), what is the most probable value of 8 given X = 2? Given X = k?
(c) Find the posterior distribution of (} given X = k when the prior distribution is beta,
l3(r,8).
4. Let X I, ... , X n be distributed as

where XI, . ,Xn are natural numbers between 1 and Band e= {I, 2, 3, ... }.
(3) Suppose 8 has prior frequency,
,
"
. c(a).
1r(J)= 'u ,)=1,2, .. "
':, J
where a> 1 and c(a) = [2:;'" 1raj-I Show that

( .I , ) c(n + a, m) .
'IT J XI .. "X n = 'n+a ' J=m,m+I, ... ,
J
Section 1.7 Problems .and Complements 73

wherern = max(xl, ... ,J:n),c(b,f) = [~;"'tFt',b> 1.


(b) Suppose that max(xl, ... , Xn) = Xl = m for all n. Show that ?T( m I Xl, ... , Xn) --+
1 as n --+ 00 whatever be a. Interpret this result.
5. In Example 1.2.1 suppose n is large and (1 In) E~ I Xi = X is not close to 0 or 1 and
the prior distribution is beta, f3(r, s). Justify the following approximation to the posterior
distribution

where q. is the standard normal distribution function and


_ n _ T -2 ;;(1-;;)
x
J.1= n+r+s + n+r+s' a = n+r+s
Hint: Let!3( a, b) denote the posterior distribution. If a and b are integers, then !3( a, b)
is the distribution of (aV loW)[1 + (aV IbW)]-t, where VI,'" , Va' W t , .. . , W. are in-
dependent standard exponential. Next use the central limit theorem and Slutsky's theorem.
6. Show that a conjugate family of distributions for the Poisson family is the gamma family.
7, Show rigorously using (1.2.8) that if in Example 1.1.1, D = NO has a B(N, 11'0) distri-
bution. then the posterior distribution of D given X = k is that of k + Z where Z has a
B(N - n, 11'0) distribution.
S, Let (XI, ... , X n+ k ) be a sample from a population with density f(x I 0),0 E e.
Let 9
have prior density 1r. Show that the conditional distribution of (6, X n+ Il ... I Xn+k) given
. XI = XI,., X n = Xn is that of (Y, ZI,"" Zk) where the marginal distribution of Y
equals the posterior distribution of 6 given Xl = Xl, ... X n = Xn' and the conditional
distribution of the Zi'S given Y = t is that of sample from the population with density
f(x I f).
9. Show in Example 1.2.1 that the conditional distribution of 6 given E;
I Xi = k agrees
with the posterior distribution of 6 given X I = Xl ... X n = Xn, where E~ 1 Xi = k.
10. Suppose Xl,." ,Xn is a sample with Xi '"'-' p(x I (}), a regular model and integrable
as a function of O. Assume that A = {x : p( x I 8) > O} does not involve O.
(a) Show that the family of priors

where {i E A and N E {l,2, ... } is a conjugate family of prior distributions for p(x I 8)
and that the posterior distribution of () given X = x is
74 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

where N' ~ N + nand ({;, ... , (;.,) ~ ({" ... , (N, Xl . . . . . x n ).

I (b) Use the result (a) to give 7t(0) and 7t(0 I x) when

pix I 0) Oexp{ -Ox}, x> 0, 0> 0


a otherwise.
11. Letp(x I OJ =exp{-(x-O)},O <0<x and let7t(O) = 2exp{-20}, 0 > O. Find I
the posterior density 7t( 0 Ix).
12. Suppose p(x I 0) is the density of i.i,d. X 1, ... 1 X n , where Xi 'V ./If (Ito, i), po is
I
known, and () = a- 2 is (called) the precision of the distribution of Xi.
(a) Show that p(x I 0) ()( 04 n exp (-~tO) where t = ~~ l(X i - 1"0)2 and ()( denotes
"proportional to" as a function of 8,
(b) Let 7t( 0) ()( 04 (>-2) exp { - ~vO}, v > 0, ,\ > 0; 0 > O. Find the posterior distri-
bution 7f(() I x) and show that if>' is an integer, given x, O(t + v) has a X~+n distribution.
Note that, unconditionally, vB has a XX distribution.
(c) Find the posterior distribution of 0".

13. Show that if Xl, ... , X n are i.i.d. N(I", ,,2) and we formally put 7t(I",") ~ ,;, then
the posterior density ~(J-t I X, 52) of J1. given (x, 8 2 ) is such that vn(p.~X) '" tn-I. Here
52 = _1_ "'(X _ X)2
n-I I...J t

HinJ: Given I" and ". X and 5' are independent with X ~ N(I","Z In) and (n-
1)S2/q 2 '" X~-l' This leads to p(x, 82 I fL, (12). Next use Bayes rule.
14. In a Bayesian model whereX l , .. . ,Xn,Xn + l arei.i.d. I(x I (J),6 ""' 1r, the predictive
distribution is the marginal distribution of X n + l . The posterior predictive distribution is
the conditional distribution of X n +l given Xl, ... , X n .

(a) If f and 7t are the N(O, "5) and N(Oo, T6) densities, compute the predictive and
posterior predictive distribution.
(b) Discuss the behavior of the two predictive distributions as n -+ 00.

15. The Dirichlet distribution is a conjugate prior for the multinomial. The Dirichlet
distribution, D(a), a = (a1, ... , Q'r)T, Q'j > 0,1 < j < T, has density

r("" a) IT
L",~l

fa(u) ~ n' r(.)
, 0-1 '\'
u/' 0 < Uj < 1, L..J u; = 1.
cx) )=1 j=l j=1

Let N = (N l , , N.) be multinomial


M(n,9), 9= (OJ, ... ,O.)T, 0<0; < 1, LO; = 1.
j=1
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 75

Show that if the prior7r( 0) for 0 is V( a), then the posteriof7r(0 IN ~ n) is V( a + n),
where n = (nt l , n r ).

Problems for Section 1.3


1. Suppose the possible states of nature are (Jl, (J2, the possible actions are al, a2, a3, and
the loss function l((J, a) is given by

0, a I 2
O2 2 a I

Let X be a random variable with frequency function p(x, (J) given by

O\x a I
(I - p)
(I - q)
and let at, ... ,159 be the decision rules of Table 1.3.3. Compute and plot the risk points
when
(a)p=q= .1,
(b)p=l-q=.1.
(c) Find the minimax rule among bt, ... , 159 for the preceding case (a).
(d) Suppose that 0 has prior 1C(OIl = 0.5, 1C(O,) = 0.5. Find the Bayes rule for case
(a).
2. Suppose that in Example 1.3.5, a new buyer makes a bid and the loss function is changed
to

8\a al a2 a3
01 a 7 4
O2 12 I 6

(a) Compute and plot the risk points in this case for each rule 1St, ... , 159 of Table 1.3.3.
(b) Find the minimax rule among {b 1 , ... I b"9 }.

(c) Find the minimax rule among the randomized rules.


(d) Suppose 0 has prior 1C(01) ~ 1', 1C(02) = 1-1'. Find the Bayes rule when (i)
l' = 0.5 and (ii) l' = 0.1.
3. The problem of selecting the better of two treatments or of deciding whether the effect of
one treatment is beneficial or not often reduces to the pr9blem of deciding whether 8 < O.
8 = 0 or 8 > 0 for some parameter 8. See Example 1.1.3. Let the actions corresponding to
deciding whether < = a
0, or 0 > a be penoted by -I, 0, I, respectively and suppose
the loss function is given by (from Lehmann, 1957)
76 StatistiCCII Models, Goals. and Performance Criteria ChClpter 1

O\a -1 0 1
<0 0 c b+c
-0 b 0 b
>0 b+c c 0
where b and c are positive. Suppose X is aN(B, 1) sample and consider the decision rule

J",(X) = -1 if X <r
o ifr<X<s
1 if X > s.
(a) Show that the risk function is given by

R(O, J",) c<f>( y'n(r - 0)) +b<f>( y'n(s - 0)), 0<0


b<f>(y'ns) + b<I>(y'nr), 0=0
II c<I>(y'n(s-O))+b<I>(y'n(r-O)), 0 >0
I, where <f> = 1- <I>, and <I> is the N(O, 1) distribution function.
(b) Plot the risk function when b = c = 1, n = 1 and

.
(l)r=-s=-l, (..) 1
11 r=-2s=-1.
,
I For what values of B does the procedure with r = -8 = -1 have smaller risk than the
; i
I procedure with r = -~s = -I?
4. Stratified sampling. We want to estimate the mean J1. = E(X) of a population that
has been divided (stratified) into s mutually exclusive parts (strata) (e.g., geographic loca-
tions or age groups). Within the jth stratum we have a sample of i.i.d. random variables
Xlj"",Xnjj;j = I, ... ,s,andastratumsamplemeanXj;j = 1, ... ,8. Weassurne
that the s samples from different strata are independent. Suppose that the jth stratum has
lOOpj% of the population and that the jth stratum population mean and variances are f-j
and 0-;.Let N = E;=lnj and consider the two estimators
s n] s

iii = N- I L LXij, iiz = LpjX j


j=Ii=1 )=1
where we assume that Pj, 1 < j < S, are known.
(a) Compute the biases, variances. and MSEs of iiI and 'j1z. How should nj. 0 < J' < s.
be chosen to make iiI unbiased?
I
(b) Neyman allocation. Assume that 0 < a; < 00, 1 < j < S, are known (estimates
will be used in a latet chapter). Show that the strata sample sizes that minimize MSE(!i2)
are given by

(1.7.3)
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 77

Hint: You may use a Lagrange multiplier.


(c) Show that MSE(!ill with Ok ~ PkN minus MSE(!i,) with nk given by (1.7.3) is
N- I 2:;=1 Pj(O'j - aV,
where a- = 2:;=1 pp7J"
- ~

5. Let Xb and X b denote the sample mean and the sample median of the sample XI -
b, .,. l X n - b. [f the parameters of interest are the population mean and median of Xi - b,
~

respectively, show that MSE(Xb ) and MSE(Xb ) are the same for all values of b (the
MSEs of the sample mean and sample median are invariant with respect to shift).
~

6. Suppose that X I, ... , X n are i.i.d. ali X '"'-' F, that X is the median of the sample, and
that n is odd. We want to estimate "the" median lJ of F, where lJ is defined as a value
satisfyingP(X < v) > ~lllldP(X >v) >~.
~

(a) Find the MSE of X when

(i) F is discrete with P(X ~ a) = P(X = c) = P, P(X ~ b)


= 1 .- 2p, < P < 1,
a < b < c.
Hint: Use Problem 1.3.5. The answer is MSE(X) ~ [(a-b)'+(c-b)'JP(S > k)
where k = .5(0 + I) and S ~ B(n,p).

(ii) F is uniform, U(O, I).


Hint: See Problem B.2.9.

(iii) F is normal, N(o, 1), n ~ 1,5,25, 75.

Hint: See Problem B.2.13. Use a numerical integration package.

(b) Compute the relative risk RR = M SE(X)/MSE(X) in question (i) when b = 0,



a = -,;, b = ';, p = .20, .40, and = 1,5,15.
(c) Same as (b) except when n = 15, plot RR for p = .1, .2, .3, .4, .45.
(d) Find EIX - bl for the situation in (i). Also find EIX - bl when n = 1, and 2 and
~

compare it to EIX - bl.


- ~

(e) Compute the relative risks M SE(X)/MSE(X) in questions (ii) and (iii).
7. Let XI, ... , X n be a sample from a population with values

0- 2';,0 - ';,0,0 + ';,0 + 2';; ,; > 0.


- ~

Each value has probability .2. Let X and X denote the sample mean and median. Suppose
that n is odd.
~ ~-

(a) Find MSE(X) and the relative risk RR = MSE(X)/MSE(X).


(b) Evaluate RR when n = 1,3,5.
Hint: By Problem 1.3.5, set () = 0 without loss of generality. Next note that the
~

distribution of X involves Bernoulli and multinomial trials.


, I

I
78 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1
: !,
I,
8. Let Xl, ... ,Xn be a sample from a population with variance a 2 , 0 < a 2 < 00.

(a) Show that s:? = (n - 1)-1 E~ 1 (Xi - X)2 is an unbiased estimator of u 2


Hint: Write (Xi - X)' = ([Xi - 1'] - [X - 1'])2, then expand (Xi - X)2 keeping the
square brackets intact.
(b) Suppose Xi _ N(I', ,,').

(i) Show that MSE(S2) ~ 2(n _ 1)-1,,4.

(ii) Let 0'6 = c L~ 1 (Xi - X)2. Show that the value of c that minimizes M S E(c/;) is
c~ (n+ 1)-1
,, ,' Hint!or question (bi: Recall (Theorem B.3.3) that ,,-2 ~~ I (Xi - X)2 has a X~-I
, ,
distribution. You may use the fact that E(X i - J.L)4 = 3(12.
I
,I. 9. Let () denote the proportion of people working in a company who have a certain charac-
,
teristic (e.g., being left-handed). It is known that in the state where the company is located,
10% have the characteristic. A person in charge of ordering equipment needs to estimate e
and uses
8 ~ (.2)(.10) + (.8lP
where p = XI n is the proportion with the characteristic in a sample of size n from the
~

company. Find MSE(6) and MSE(P). If the true 6 is 60 ,for what 60 is

MSE(8)/MSE(P) < 17
Give the answer for n = 25 and n = 100.
10. In Problem 1.3.3(a) with b = c = 1 and n = I, suppose (J is discrete with frequency
i.
function 11"(0) = 11" (-!) = 11" U) = Compute the Bayes risk of I5r s when
(a)r = -8 =-1
(b)r= -~s =-1.
Which one of the rules is the better one from the Bayes point of view?
11. A decision rule 15 is said to be unbiased if

E.(1(6,0(X))) < E.(1(6',0(X)))


for all 6, 6' E e.
(a) Show that if 6 is real and 1(6, a) = (6 - a)2, then this definition coincides with the
II, definition of an unbiased estimate of e.
(b) Show that if we use the 0 -1 loss function in testing, then a test function is unbiased
I in this sense if, and only if, the powerfunction, defined by (J(6, 0) = E.(o(X)), satisfies
(J(6',0) > sup{{J(6,0): 6 E eo},
for all 6' E 8 1, i1
,

-
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 79

12. In Problem 1.3.3, show that if c ::; b, z > 0, and

then JT,.~ is unbiased


13. A (behavioral) randomized test of a hypothesis H is defined as any statistic rp(X) such
that 0 < <p(X) < 1. The interpretation of <p is the following. If X ~ x and <p(x) = 0
we decide 90. if <p(x) = 1. wc dccide El,; but if 0 < <p(x) < 1. we petiorm a Bernoulli
trial with probability rp( x) of success and decide 8 1 if we obtain a success and decide 8 0
otherwise.
Define the nonrandomized test Ju , 0 < u < 1, by

1 if<p(X) >u
o if <p(X) < u.
Suppose that U - UfO, 1) and is independent of X. Consider the following randomized
test J: Observe U. If U = u. use the test J u . Show that J agrees with rp in the sense that,

Po[o(X) ~ 11 ~ 1 - Polo(X) ~ 01 = Eo(<p(X)).

14. Convexity ofthe risk set. Suppose that the set of decision procedures is finite. Show that
if J 1 and J 2 are two randomized. procedures, then, given 0 < a < 1, there is a randomized
procedure 03 such that R(B, 03) = aR(B, 0,) + (1 - a )R(B, 0,) for all B.
15. Suppose that Po, (B) = 0 for some event B implies that Po (B) = 0 for all B E El.
Furthersuppose that l(Bo,ao) ~ O. Show that the procedure O(X) au is admissible.
16. In Example 1.3.4, find the set of I' where MSE(ji) < MSE(X). Your answer should
depend on n, ,,' and 0 = II' - 1'0 I
17. In Example 1.3.4, consider the estimator

Mw = WJ10 + (1 - w)x'
If n, ,,' and 0 = II' - 1'0 I are known,
(a) find the value of Wo that minimizes M SE(Mw),
(b) find the minimum relative risk of P,wo to X.
18. For Example 1.1.1, consider the loss function (1.3.1) and let Ok be the decision rule
"reject the shipment iff X > k."
(a) Show that the risk is given by (1.3.7).
(h) If N ~ 10. s = r = I. Bo = .1. and k ~ 3. plot R(O, Ok) as a function of B.
(c) Same as (b) except k = 2. Compare 02 and 03'
19. Consider a decision problem with the possible states of nature 81 and 82 , and possible
actions at and a2. Suppose the loss function feB, a) is
80 Statistical Models. Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

B\a al a2
0, 0 2
0, 3 I

Let X be a random variable with probability function p(x ! B)

O\x 0 I
0, 0.2 0.8
0, 0.4 0.6

(a) Compute and plot the risk points of the nonrandomized decision rules. Give the
minimax rule among the nonrandomized decision rules.
(b) Give and plot the risk set S. Give the minimax rule among the randomized decision
rules.
(c) Suppose 0 has the prior distribution defined by ,,(0,) = 0.1.,,(0,) = 0.9. What is
the Bayes decision rule?

Problems for Section 1.4


1. An urn contains four red and four black balls. Four balls are drawn at random without
replacement. Let Z be the number of red balls obtained in the first two draws and Y the
total number of red balls drawn.
(a) Find the best predictor of Y given Z, the best linear predictor, and the best zero
intercept linear predictor.
(b) Compute the MSPEs of the predictors in (a).
2. In Example 1.4.1 calculate explicitly the best zero intercept linear predictor, its MSPE,
and the ratio of its MSPE to that of the best and best linear predictors.
3. In Problem B.l.7 find the best predictors ofY given X and of X given Y and calculate
their MSPEs.
4. Let U I , U2 be independent standard normal random variables and set Z = Ur + U?,
Y = U I- Is Z of any value in predicting Y?
5. Give an example in which the best linear predictor of Y given Z is a constant (has no
predictive value) whereas the best predictor Y given Z predicts Y perfectly.
6. Give an example in which Z can be used to predict Y perfectly. but Y is of no value in
predicting Z in the sense that Var(Z I Y) = Var(Z).
7. Let Y be any random variable and let R(c) = E(IY-cl) be the mean absolute prediction
error. Show that either R(c) = 00 for all cor R(c) is minimized by taking c to be any
number such that PlY > cJ > !. !.
pry < cJ > A number satisfying these restrictions is
called a median of (the distribution of) Y. The midpoint of the interval of such c is called
the conventionally defined median or simply just the median.
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 81

Hint: If c < eo.


ElY - col = ElY - cl + (c - co){P[Y > co] - PlY < eo]} + 2E[(c - Y)llc < Y < co]]

8. Let Y have a N(I", 0- 2 ) distrihution.


(a) Show that E(IY - cl) = o-Q[lc - 1"1/0-] where Q(t) = 2['I'(t) + t<I>(t)]- t.
(b) Show directly that I" minimizes E(IY - el) as a function of c.
9. If Y and Z are any two random variables, exhibit a best predictor of Y given Z for mean
absolute prediction error.
10. Suppose that Z has a density p, which is symmetric about c. p( c + z) = p(c - z) for
all z. Show that c is a median of Z.
11. Show that if (Z, Y) has a bivariate nonnal distribution the best predictor of Y given Z
in the sense of MSPE coincides with the best predictor for mean absolute error.
12. Many observed biological variables such as height and weight can be thought of as the
sum of unobservable genetic and environmental variables. Suppose that Z, Yare measure-
ments on such a variable for a randomly selected father and son. Let ZI, Z", Y', Y" be
the corresponding genetic and environmental components Z = ZJ + Z". Y = Y' + Y",
where (ZI , Y') have a N(p" J.L, a 2, a 2, p) distribution and Z", Y" are N(v, 7 2 ) variables
independent of each other and of (ZI, y l ).
(a) Show that the relation between Z and Y is weaker than that between Z' and y J ;
that is, ICor(Z, Y)I < Ipl.
(b) Show that the error of prediction (for the best predictor) incurred in using Z to
predict Y is greater than that incurred in using Z' to predict y J
13. Suppose that Z has a density p, which is symmetric about c and which is unimodal;
that is, p( z) is nonincreasing for z > c.
(a) Show that P[lZ - tl < s] is maximized as a function oftfor each s > by t = c.
(b) Suppose (Z, Y) has a bivariate normal distribution. Suppose that if we observe

Z = z and predict 1"( z) for Your loss is 1 unit if 11"( z) - YI > s, and otherwise. Sbow
that the predictor that minimizes our expected loss is again the best MSPE predictor.
14. Let Zl and Zz be independent and have exponential distributions with density Ae-\z,
z > 0, Define Z = Z2 and Y = Zl + Z l Z2. Find
(a) The best MSPE predictor E(Y I Z = z) ofY given Z = z
(b) E(E(Y I Z))
(c) Var(E(Y I Z))
(d) Var(Y I Z = z)
(e) E(Var(Y I Z
I
82 Statisflcal Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1
,
!
,
,
(0 The best linear MSPE predictor of Y based on Z = z.
, Hint: Recall that E( Z.) = E( Z,) ~ 1/>. and Var( Z.) = Var( Z,) ~ 1/>''.
;:
IS. Let /L(z) = E(Y I Z ~ z). Show that

Var(/L(Z))/Var(Y) = Corr'(Y,/L(Z)) = max Corr'(Y, g(Z))


9

where g(Z) stands for any predictor.

16. Show that p~y = Corr'(Y,/L(Z)) ~ maxgEL Corr'(Y,g(Z)) where is the set of
linear predictors.
, I,

17. One minus the ratio of the smallest possible MSPE to the MSPE of the constant pre-
dictor is called Pearson's correlation ratio 1J~y; that is,

~~y = 1 - ElY - /L(Z)J' /Var(Y) ~ Var(/L(Z))/Var(Y).

(See Pearson, 1905, and Doksurn and Samarov, 1995, on estimation of 1]~y.)

(a) Show that 1]~y > piy. where piy is the population multiple correlation coefficient
of Remark 1.4.3.
Hint: See Problem 1.4.15.
(b) Show that if Z is one-dimensional and h is a 1-1 increasing transfonnation of Z,
2
then'fJh(Z)Y ' T hat1s,1]
=1JZY. ' , IS
. .mvanant
, un d ersuchh.

(c) Let ' = Y - /LdZ) be the linear prediction error. Show that, in the linear model
of Remark 1.4.4, L is uncorrelated with PL(Z) and 1J~Y = P~Y'

18. Predicting the past from the present. Consider a subject who walks into a clinic today,
at time t. and is diagnosed with a certain disease. At the same time t a diagnostic indicator
Zo of the severity of the disease (e.g., a blood cell or viral load measurement) is obtained.
Let S be the unknown date in the past when the sUbject was infected. We are interested in
the time Yo = t - S from infection until detection. Assume that the conditional density of
Zo (the present) given Yo = Yo (the past) is

where j1, and a 2 are the mean and variance of the severity indicator Zo in the population of
people without the disease. Here j3yo gives the mean increase of Zo for infected subjects
over the time period Yo; j3 > 0, Yo > O. It will be convenient to rescale the problem by
introducing Z = (Zo - /L)/<J and Y ~ /3Yo/<J.

(a) Show that the conditional density j(z I y) of Z given Y = y is H(y, 1).
(b) Suppose that Y has the exponential density

,,(y) = >.exp{ ->.y}, >. > 0, y> O.


Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 83

Show that the conditional distribution of Y (the past) given Z = z (the present) has density

7r(Y I z) ~ (27r) -; c- I exp { - ~ [y - (z - >')1 2 } , Y>


where c = 4>(z - >..). This density is called the truncated (at zero) normal, N(z - >.., 1),
density.
Hint: Use Bayes rule.
(c) Find the conditional density 7I"o(Yo I zo) of Yo given Zo = zo.
(d) Find the best predictor of Yo given Zo = zo using mean absolute prediction error
EIYo - g(Zo)l
Hint: See Problems 1.4.7 and 1.4.9.
(e) Show that the best MSPE predictor ofY given Z = z is

E(Y I Z ~ z) ~ c-I<p(>. - z) - (>' - z).

(In practice, all the unknowns, including the "prior" 71", need to be estimated from cohort
studies; see Berman, 1990, and Nonnand and Doksum, 2000).

19. Establish 1.4.14 by setting the derivatives of R(a, b) equal to zero, solving for (a, b),
and checking convexity.
20. Let Y be the number of heads showing when X fair coins are tossed, where X is the
number of spots showing when a fair die is rolled. Find
(a) The mean and variance of Y.

(b) The MSPE of the optimal predictor of Y based on X.

(c) The optimal predictor of Y given X = x, x = 1, ... , 6.

21. Let Y be a vector and let r(Y) and s(Y) be real valued. Write Cov[r(Y), s(Y) I z]
for the covatiance between r(Y) and s(Y) in the conditional distribution of (r(Y), s(Y
given Z = z.
(a) Show that ifCov[r(Y),s(Y)] < 00, then
Covlr(Y), s(Y)] = E{Cov[r(Y), s(Y) I Z]} + Cov{ E[r(Y) I Z]' E[s(Y) I Z]}.

(b) Show that (a) is equivalent to (1.4.6) when r = s.

(c) Show that if Z is real, Cov[r(Y), Z] = Cov{E[r(Y) I Z]' Z}.


(d) Suppose Y i = al + biZ i + Wand 1'2 = a2 + b2 Z 2 + W, wbere Y j
and Y2 are
responses of subjects 1 and 2 with common influence W and separate influences ZI and
Z2, where Z}, Z2 and W are independent with finite variances. Find Corr(Y}, Y2) using
(a).
84 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

(e) In the preceding model (d), if b1 = b2 and Zl, Zz and ~V have the same variance (T2.
we say that there is a 50% overlap between Y 1 and Yz. In this case what is Corr(Y., Y z )?
(f) In model (d), suppose that Zl and Z, are N(p, ,,') and W ~ N(po, "5). Find the
optimal predictor of Yz given (Yi, 1, Zz). z
22. In Example 1.4.3. show that the MSPE of the optimal predictor is ,,~(1 - p~y).
23. Verify that solving (1.4.15) yields (1.4.14).
24. (a) Let w(y,z) be a positive real-valued function. Then [y - g(z)]'lw(y,z) =
6w (y,g(z) is called weighted squared prediction error. Show that the mean weighted
squared prediction error is minimized by Po(Z) = EO(Y I Z), where

Po(Y, z) ~ ep(y,z)lw(y, z)
and c is the constant that makes Po a density. Assume that

Eow (Y, g(Z)) < 00

for some 9 and that Po is a density.


(b) Suppose that given Z = z, Y ~ B(n,z), n > 2, and suppose that Z has the beta,
,6(r, s), density. Find Po(Z) when (i) w(y, z) = I, and (ii) w(y, z) = z(1 - z), 0 < z < I.
25. Show that EY' < 00 if and only if E(Y - e)' < 00 for all e.
Hint: Whatever be Y and c,
1
2 y' - e' < (Y - e)' = Y' - 2eY + e' < 2(Y' + e').
,
Problems for Section 1.5
1. Let Xl, ... 1 X n be a sample from a Poisson, p(e), population where e > O. 1
(a) Show directly that z:::: 1 Xi is sufficient for 8.
\ (b) Establish the same result using the factorization theorem.
2. Let n items be drawn in order without replacement from a shipment of N items of
which N8 are bad. Let Xi = 1 if the ith item drawn is bad, and = 0 otherwise. Show that
L~ 1 Xi is sufficient for 8 directly and by the factorization theorem.

3. Suppose Xl, . , . ,Xn is a sample from a population with one of the following densities.
(a) p(x, 0) = Ox'- l , 0< X < 1,0> O. This is thebeta,,6(O, 1),density.
(b) p(x, 0) = Oax"-l exp( -Ox"),x > 0, 0 > 0, a > O.
This is known as the Weibull density.
(c) p(x, 0) = Oa' Ix('H), x > a, 0 > 0, a > O.

-
Section 1. 7 Problems and Complements 85

This is known as the Pareto density.


In each case. find a real-valued sufficient statistic for (), a fixed.
4. (a) Show that T 1 and T z are equivalent statistics if, and only if, we can write T z = H (T1 )
for some 1-1 transformation H of the range of T 1 into the range of T z . Which of the
following statistics are equivalent? (Prove or disprove.)
(b) n~ 1 x t and I:~ 1 log Xi, Xi >0
(c) I:~ I Xi and I:~ 1 log Xi. Xi >0
(d)(I:~ lXi,I:~ lxnand(I:~ lXi,I:~ l(Xi- X ?)
(e) (I:~ I Xi, I:~ 1 xl) and (I:~ 1 Xi, I:~ 1 (Xi - X)3).

5. Let e = (e lo e,) be a bivariate parameter. Suppose that T l (X) is sufficient for e,


whenever 82 is fixed and known, whereas T2 (X) is sufficient for (h whenever 81 is fixed
and known. Assume that eh ()2 vary independently, lh E 8 1 , 8 2 E 8 2 and that the set
S = {x: pix, e) > O} does not depend on e.
(a) Show that ifT, and T, do not depend one2 and e, respectively, then (Tl (X), T2 (X))
is sufficient for e.
(b) Exhibit an example in which (T, (X), T2 (X)) is sufficient for T l (X) is sufficiente,
for 8 1 whenever 8 2 is fixed and known, but Tz(X) is not sufficient for 82 , when el is fixed
and known.
6. Let X take on the specified values VI, .. 1 Vk with probabilities 8 1 , . ,8k, respectively.
Suppose that Xl, ... ,Xn are independently and identically distributed as X. Suppose that
IJ = (e" ... , e>l is unknown and may range over the set e = {(e" ... ,ek) : e, > 0, 1 <
i < k, E~ 18i = I}, Let Nj be the number of Xi which equal Vj'
(a) What is the distribution of (N" ... , N k )?
(b) Sbow that N = (N" ... , N k _,) is sufficient for e.
7. Let Xl,'" 1 X n be a sample from a population with density p(x, 8) given by

pix, e)
o otherwise.
Here e = (/1-, <r) with -00 < /1- < 00, <r > 0.
(a) Show that min (Xl, ... 1 X n ) is sufficient for fl when a is fixed.
(b) Find a one-dimensional sufficient statistic for a when J1. is fixed.
(c) Exhibit a two-dimensional sufficient statistic for 8.
8. Let Xl,. " ,Xn be a sample from some continuous distribution Fwith density f, which
is unknown. Treating f as a parameter, show that the order statistics X(l),"" X(n) (cf.
Problem B.2.8) are sufficient for f.
,
"

I
!
86 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

9. Let Xl, ... ,Xn be a sample from a population with density

j,(x) a(O)h(x) if 0, < x < 0,


o othetwise
where h(x) > 0,0= (0,,0,) with -00 < 0, < 0, < 00, and a(O) = [J:" h(X)dXr'
is assumed to exist. Find a two-dimensional sufficient statistic for this problem and apply
your result to the U[()l, ()2] family of distributions.

10. Suppose Xl" .. , X n are U.d. with density I(x, 8) = ~e-lx-61. Show that (X{I),""
X(n, the order statistics, are minimal sufficient.
Hint: t,Lx(O) = - E~ ,sgn(Xi - 0), 0 't {X"" . , X n }, which determines X(I),
. " , X(n)'

11. Let X 1 ,X2, ... ,Xn be a sample from the unifonn, U(O,B). distribution. Show that
X(n) = max{ Xii 1 < i < n} is minimal sufficient for O.

12. Dynkin, Lehmann, Scheffe's Theorem. Let P = {Po : () E e} where Po is discrete


concentrated on X = {x" x," .. }. Let p(x, 0) =
p.[X = xl Lx(O) > on= Show x,
that f:xx(~~) is minimial sufficient.
Hint: Apply the factorization theorem.
13. Suppose that X = (XlI" _, X n ) is a sample from a population with continuous distri-
bution function F(x). If F(x) is N(j1., ,,'), T(X) = (X, ,,'). where,,2 = n- l E(Xi -
1')2, is sufficient, and S(X) ~ (XCI)"" ,Xin' where XCi) = (X(i) - 1')/'" is "irrel-
evant" (ancillary) for (IL, a 2 ). However, S(X) is exactly what is needed to estimate the
"shape" of F(x) when F(x) is unknown. The shape of F is represented hy the equivalence
class F = {F(( - a)/b) : b > 0, a E R}. Thus a distribution G has the same shape as F
iff G E F. For instance, one "estimator" of this shape is the scaled empirical distribution
function ~

F,(x) jln, x(j) < x < x(i+1)' j = 1, . .. ,n-l


0, x < XCI)
1, x > x(n)-
I,
~

Show that for fixed x, F,((x - x)/,,) converges in prohahility to F(x). Here we are using
F to represent :F because every member of:F can be obtained from F.
I 14. Kolmogorov's Theorem. We are given a regular model with e finite.
'I
i, (a) Suppose that a statistic T(X) has the property that for any prior distribution on
9, the posterior distrihution of 9 depends on x only through T(x). Show that T(X) is
sufficient.
(b) Conversely show that if T(X) is sufficient, then, for any prior distribution, the
posterior distribution depends on x only through T(x).
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 87

Hint: Apply the factorization theorem.


15. Let X h ., X n be a sample from f(x -- 0), () E R. Show that the order statistics arc
minimal sufficient when / is the density Cauchy Itt) ~ I/Jr(1 + t 2 ).
16. Let Xl,"" X rn ; Y1 , . " ~l be independently distributed according to N(p, (72) and
N(TI, 7 2 ), respectively. Find minimal sufficient statistics for the following three cases:

(i) p, TI, 0", T are arbitrary: -00 < p, TI < 00, a < (J, T.

(ii) (J =T and p, TI, (7 are arbitrary.

(iii) p = TJ and p, 0", T are arbitrary.

17. In Example 1.5.4. express tl as a function of Lx(O, 1) and Lx(l, I).

Problems to Sectinn 1.6


1. Prove the assertions of Table 1.6.1.
2. Suppose X I, ... , X n is as in Problem 1.5.3. In each of the cases (a), (b) and (c), show
that the distribution of X fonns a one-parameter exponential family. Identify 'TI, B, T, and
h.
3. Let X be the number of failures before the first success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials
with probability nf success O. Then P, IX = k] = (I - 0)'0, k ~ 0 0 1,2, ... This is called
thc geometric distribution (9 (0.
(a) Show that the family of geometric distributions is a one-parameter exponential fam-
ily with T(x) ~ x.
(b) Deduce from Theorem 1.6.1 that if X lo '" oXn is a sample from 9(0), then the
distributions of L~ 1 Xi fonn a one-parameter exponential family.
(c) Show that E~ 1 Xi in part (b) has a negative binomial distribution with parameters
(noO)definedbyP,[L:71Xi = kJ = (n+~-I ) (1-0)'on,k~0,1,2o'" (The
negative binomial distribution is that of the number of failures before the nth success in a
sequence of Bernoulli trials with probability of success 0.)
Hint: By Theorem 1.6.1, P,[L:7 1 Xi = kJ = c.(1 - o)'on. 0 < 0 < 1. If

= I
' " CkW'
L..J = c(;-''--,)::-,
l-w n 0 < W < I, then
k=O

4. Which of the following families of distributions are exponential families? (Prove or


disprove.)
(a) The U(O, 0) fumily
88 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

(b) p(.", 0) = {exp[-2Iog0+log(2x)]}I[XE (0,0)1


(c)p(x,O) = ~,xE {O.I +0, ... ,0.9+0j
(d) The N(O, 02 ) family, 0 > 0

(e)p(x,O) = 2(x + 0)/(1 + 20), 0 < x < 1,0> 0


(f) p(x,9) is the conditional frequency function of a binomial, B(n,O), variable X,
given that X > O.

5. Show that the following families of distributions are two-parameter exponential families
and identify the functions 1], B, T, and h.
(a) The beta family.

(b) The gamma family.

6. Let X have the Dirichlet distribution, D( a), of Problem 1.2.15.


Show the distribution of X form an r-parameter exponential family and identify fJl B, T,
and h.

7. Let X = ((XI, Y I ), ... , (X no Y n be a sample from a bIvariate nonnal population.


Show that the distributions of X form a five-parameter exponential family and identify
'TJ, B, T, and h.

8. Show that the family of distributions of Example 1.5.3 is not a one parameter eX(Xloential
family.

Hint: If it were. there would be a set A such that p(x, 0) > on A for all O.
9. Prove the analogue of Theorem 1.6.1 for discrete k-parameter exponential families.
10. Suppose that f(x, B) is a positive density on the real line, which is continuous in x
for each 0 and such that if (XI, X 2) is a sample of size 2 from f(, 0), then XI + X2
is sufficient for B. Show that f(, B) corresponds to a one-arameter exponential family of
distributions with T(x) = x.
Hint: There exist functions g(t, 0), h(x" X2) such that log f(x" 0) + log f(X2, 0) =
g(xI + X2, 0) + h(XI, X2). Fix 00 and let r(x, 0) = log f(x, 0) - log f(x, 00), q(x, 0) =
g(x,O) - g(x,Oo). Then, q(xI + X2,0) = r(xI,O) +r(x2,0), and hence, [r(x" 0) -
r(O, 0)1 + [r(x2, 0) - r(O, 0) = r(xi + X2, 0) - r(O, 0).
11. Use Theorems 1.6.2 and 1.6.3 to obtain moment-generating functions for the sufficient
statistics when sampling from the following distributions.
(a) normal, () ~ (ll,a 2 )
(b) gamma. r(p, >.), 0 = >., p fixed
(c) binomial
(d) Poisson
(e) negative binomial (see Problem 1.6.3)
(0 gamma. r(p, >'). () = (p, >.).

- - --,- ------
Section 1. 7 Problems and Complements 89

12. Show directly using the definition of the rank of an ex}X)nential family that the multi-
nomialdistribution,M(n;OI, ... ,Ok),O < OJ < 1,1 <j < k,I:~oIOj = 1, is of rank
k-1.
13. Show that in Theorem 1.6.3, the condition that E has nonempty interior is equivalent
to the condition that is not contained in any (k ~ I)-dimensional hyperplane.

14. Construct an exponential family of rank k for which is not open and A is not defined
on all of &. Show that if k = 1 and &0 oJ 0 and A, A are defined on all of &, then Theorem
1.6.3 continues to hold.

15. Let P = {P. : 0 E e} where p. is discrete and concentrated on X = {x" X2, ... },
and let p( x, 0) = p. IX = x I. Show that if P is a (discrete) canonical ex ponential family
generated bi, (T, h) and &0 oJ 0, then T is minimal sufficient.
Hint: ~;j'Lx('l) = Tj(X) - E'lTj(X). Use Problem 1.5.12.
16. Life testing. Let Xl,.'" X n be independently distributed with exponential density
(20)-l e -x/2. for x > 0, and let the ordered X's be denoted by Y, < Y2 < '" < Yn-
It is assumed that Y1 becomes available first, then Yz, and so on, and that observation is
continued until Yr has been observed. This might arise, for example, in life testing where
each X measures the length of life of, say, an electron tube, and n tubes are being tested
simultaneously. Another application is to the disintegration of radioactive material, where n
is the number of atoms, and observation is continued until r a-particles have been emitted.
Show that

(i) The joint distribution of Y1 , .. , Yr is an exponential family with density

1 n! [ I::-l Yi + (n - r)Yr] < < <


(20), (n _ r)! exp - 20 ' 0 - Y, - ... - Yr

(ii) The distribution of II:: I Y; + (n - r)Yrl/O is X2 with 2r degrees of freedom.

(iii) Let Yi, Yz , ...


denote the time required until the first, second,... event occurs in a
Poisson process with parameter 1/20' (see A.I6). Then Z, = YI/O', Z2 = (Y2 -
Yr)/O', Z3 = (Y3 - Y 2)/0', ... are independently distributed as X2 with 2 degrees
of freedom, and the joint density of Y1 , . , Yr is an exponential family with density

The distribution of Yr/B' is again XZ with 2r degrees of freedom.

(iv) The same model arises in the application to life testing if the number n of tubes is
held constant by replacing each burned-out tube with a new one, and if Y1 denotes
the time at which the first tube bums out, Y2 the time at which the second tube burns
out, and so on, measured from some fixed time.
I,
90 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

[(ii): The random variables Zi ~ (n - i 1)(Y; -l~~l)/e (I = 1", .. ,') are inde-
+
pendently distributed as X2 with 2 degrees of freedom, and [L~ 1 Yi + (n - 7")Yr]/B =
L::~l Z,.l
17. Suppose that (TkXl' h) generate a canonical exponential family P with parameter
k
1Jkxl and E = R . Let

(a) Show that Q is the exponential family generated by IlL T and h exp{ cTT}. where
IlL is the projection matrix of Tonto L = {'I : 'I = BO + c).
(b) Show that ifP has full rank k and B is of rank I, then Q has full rank l.
Hint: If B is of rank I, you may assume

18. Suppose Y1, ... 1 Y n are independent with Yi '" N(131 + {32Zi, (12), where Zl,'" , Zn
are covariate values not all equaL (See Example 1.6.6.) Show that the family has rank 3.
Give the mean vector and the variance matrix of T.
19. Logistic Regression. We observe (Zll Y1 ), ... , (zn, Y n ) where the Y1 , .. _ , Y n are inde-
pendent, Yi "-' B(TI-i, Ad- The success probability Ai depends on the characteristics Zi of
the ith subject, for example, on the covariate vector Zi = (age, height, blood pressure)T.
The function I(u) ~ log[u/(l - u)] is called the logil function. In the logistic linear re-
gression model it is assumed that I (Ai) = zT
(3 where (3 = ((31, ... ,/3d ) T and Zi is d x 1.
Show that Y = (Y1 , ... , yn)T follow an exponential model with rank d iff Zl, ... , Zd are
not collinear (linearly independent) (cf. Examples 1.1.4, 1.6.8 and Problem 1.1.9).
20. (a) In part IT of the proof of Theorem 1.6.4, fill in the details of the arguments that Q is
generated by ('11- 'Io)TT and that ~(ii) =~(i).
(b) Fill in the details of part III of the proof of Theorem 1.6.4.
21. Find JJ.('I) ~ EryT(X) for the gamma, qa, A), distribution, where e = (a, A).
22. Let X I, . _ . ,Xn be a sample from the kparameter exponential family distribution
I (1.6.10). Let T = (L:~ 1T 1 (Xi ), ... , L:~ 1Tk(X,) and let
I
S ~ ((ryl(O), ... ,ryk(O): e E 8).
Show that if S contains a subset of k + 1 vectors Vo, .. _, Vk+l so that Vi - Vo, 1 < i < k.
are not collinear (linearly independent), then T is minimally sufficient for 8.
23. Using (1.6.20). find a conjugate family of distributions for the gamma and beta fami-
.jl,I' lies.
" :
(a) With one parameter fixed.
(b) With both parameters free.
I
Section 1.7 Problems and Complements 91

24. Using (1.6.20), find a conjugate family of distributions for the normal family using as
parameter 0 = (O!, O2 ) where O! = E,(X), 0, ~ l/(Var oX) (cf. Problem 1.2.12).
25. Consider the linear Gaussian regression model of Examples 1.5.5 and 1.6.6 except with
(72 known. Find a conjugate family of prior distributions for (131,132) T.

26. Using (1.6.20), find a conjugate family of distributions for the multinomial distribution.
See Problem 1.2.15.
27. Let P denote the canonical exponential family genrated by T and h. For any TJo E ,
set ho(x) = q(x, '10) where q is given by (1.6.9). Show that P is also the canonical
exponential family generated by T and h o.
28. Exponential/amities are maximum entropy distributions. The entropy h(f) of a random
variable X with density f is defined by

h(f) ~ E(-logf(X)) = -l:IIOgf(X)I!(X)dx.

This quantity arises naturally in infonnation in theory; see Section 2.2.2 and Cover and
Thomas (1991). Let S ~ {x: f(x) > OJ.
(a) Show that the canonical k-parameter exponential family density

f(x, 'I) = exp



1/0 + I: ryjrj(x) - A('I) , XES
j:=1

maximizes h(f) subject to the constraints

f(x) > 0, Is f(x)dx ~ 1, Is f(x)rj(x) ~ aj, 1 < j < k,

where '17o, .. '17k are chosen so that f satisfies the constraints.


Hint: You may usc Lagrange multipliers. Maximize the integrand.
(b) Find the maximum entropy densities when rj(x) = x j and (i) S ~ (0,00), k = 1,
at > 0; (ii) S = R, k = 2, at E R, a, > 0; (iii) S = R, k = 3, a) E R, a, > 0, a3 E R.
29. As in Example 1.6.11, suppose that Y 1, ... Y n are Li.d. Np(f.L. E) where f.L varies
freely in RP and E ranges freely over the class of all p x p symmetric positive definite
matrices. Show that the distribution of Y = (Y ... , Yn ) is the p(p + 3)/2 canonical
exponential family generated by h = 1 and the p(p" + 3)/2 statistics
n n

Tj = LYii> 1 <j <Pi Tjl = LJ'ijJ'iI. 1 <j< l<p


i=l i=l

where Y i = (Yi!, ... , Yip). Show that <: is open and that this family is of rank pcp + 3)/2.
Hint: Without loss of generality, take n = 1. We want to show that h = 1 and the
m = pcp + 3)/2 statistics Tj(Y) ~ Yj, 1 < j < p, and Tj,(Y) = YjYi, 1 <j < I < p,
92 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

generate Np(J.l, E). As E ranges over all p x p symmetric positive definite matrices, so
does E- 1 Next establish that for symmetric matrices M,

J exp{ _uT Mu}du < 00 iff M is positive definite

by using the spectral decomposition (see B.I0.1.2)


p

M =L AjejeJ for el, ... , e p orthogonal. Aj E R.


j=1

To show that the family has full rank m, use induction on p to show that if Zt, ... , Zp are
i.i.d. N(O, 1) and if B pxp = (b jl ) is symmetric, then

p
P LajZj + Lbj,ZjZ, ~c = P(aTZ + ZTBZ = c) ~ 0
j"" 1 j,l

unless a ~ 0, B = 0, c = 0. Next recall (Appendix B.6) that since Y ~


y = SZ for some nonsingular p x p matrix S.
N p(l', E), then I
30. Show that if Xl,'" ,Xn are d.d. N p (8,E o) given (J where ~o is known, then the
Np(A, f) family is conjugate to N p(8, Eo), where A varies freely in RP and f ranges over
all p x p symmetric positive definite matrices.
31. Conjugate Normal Mixture Distributions. A Hierarchical Bayesian Normal Model. Let
{(I'j, Tj) : 1 < j < k} be a given collection of pairs with I'j E R, Tj > 0. Let (tt, tT)
be a random pair with Aj = P(I', tT) = (I'j, Tj)), 0 < Aj < 1, L:~~l Aj = 1. Let 8
be a random variable whose conditional distribution given (IL, IT) = (p,j 1 Tj) is nonnal,
N(p,j, rJ). Consider the model X = 8 + f, where 8 and are independent and rv
N(O, a3), a~ known. Note that 8 has the prior density
k
11'(0) =L Aj'l'rj (0 - I'j) (1.7.4)
j=l

where 'I'r denotes the N(O, T 2 ) density. Also note that (X I 0) has the N(O, (75) distribu-
tion.
(a) Find the posterior
i!
"" k
11'(0 I x) = LP((tt,tT) ~ (l'j,Tj) I X)1I'(O I (l'j,Tj),X)
j=1
,;
", and write it in the fonn
k
L Aj (x)'I'rj(x) (0 -l'j(X
j=1
Section 1.7 Problems ;3nd Complements 93

for appropriate A) (x), Tj (x) and ILJ (x). This shows that (1. 7.4) defines a conjugate prior
for the N(O, (76), distribution.
(b) Let Xi = e e
+ Ei, I < i < n, where is as previously and EI," ., En are ij.d.
N(O, (76)' Find the posterior 7r( 0 I Xl, ... , x n ), and show that it belongs to class (1.7 A).
Hint: Consider the sufficient statistic for p(x I B).
32. A Hierarchical Binomial-Beta Model. Let {(rj, Sj) : 1 <j < k} be a given collection
of pair.; with rj > 0, sJ > 0, let (R, S) be a random pair with P(R = cJ' S = 8j) = Aj,
D < Aj < 1, E7=1 Aj = 1, and let e be a random variable whose conditional density
".(0, c, s) given R = r, S = S is beta, (3(c, s). Consider the model in which (X I 0) has
the binomial, B( n, fJ), distribution. Note that e has the prior density

".(0) =L Aj"'(O, cJ ' sJ)' (J .7.5)


j=1

Find the posterior


k

".(0 I x) = LP(R= cj,S = 8j I x)7r(O I (rj,sj),x)


j=l

and show that it can be written in the form L:A


J (x)7r(O,rj(x),sj(x)) for appropriate
Aj(X), Cj(x) and 8j(X). This shows that (1.7.5) defines a class of conjugate prior.; for
the B( n, 0) distribution.
33. Let p(x,TJ) be a one parameter canonical exponential family generated by T(x) = x
and h(x), X E X C R, and let 1jJ(x) be a nonconstant, nondecreasing function. Show that
E,1jJ(X) is strictly increasing in ry.
Hint:

Cov,(1jJ(X), X)

~E{(X - X')i1jJ(X) -1jJ(X')]}

where X and X' are independent identically distributed as X (see A.Il.12).


34. Let (Xl, ... , X n ) be a stationary Markov chain with two states D and 1. That is.

P[Xi = Ei I Xl = EI, .,Xi - = Ei-d = P[Xi = Ci I X i - l = Ei-d =


l PEi_1Ei

where (POO
PIO
pal) is the matrix of transition probabilities. Suppose further that
Pn '

(i) poo = PII = p, so that, PlO = Pal = 1 - p.

(ii) PIX, = OJ = PIX, = IJ = !.


94 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

(a) Show that if 0 < p < 1 is unknown this is a full rank, one-parameter exponential
family with T = NOD + N ll where Nt) the number of transitions from i to j. For
example, 01011 has N Ol = 2, Nil = 1, N oo = 0, N IO ~ 1.
(b) Show that E(T) = (n - l)p (by the method of indicators or otherwise).
35. A Conjugate Priorfor the Two~Sample Problem. Suppose that Xl, ... , X n and Y1 , ... ,
Yn are independent N(fLI' (12) and N(1-l2' ( 2 ) samples, respectively. Consider the prior 7r
for which for some r > 0, k > 0, ro- 2 has a X~ distribution and given 0 2 , /11 and fL2
are independent with N(~I, <7 2/ kt} and N(6, <7 2/ k2) distributions, respectively, where
~j E R, k j > 0, j = 1,2. Show that Jr is a conjugate prior.
I
36. The inverse Gaussian density. IG(j..t, .\), is

f(x,J1.,>') = [>./21Tjl/2 x -3/2 exp { ->.(x - J1.)2/ 2J1.2 X}, x> 0, J1. > 0, >. > O.

(a) Show thatthis is an exponentialfamily generated hy T( X) = -! (X, X-I) T and


h(x) = (21T)-1/2 X -3/'.
(b) Show that the canonical parameters TJl, TJ2 are given by TJI = fL- 2A, 1]2 = '\, and
that A( 'II, '12) = - [! [Og('I2) + v''I1'I2]' = [0,00) x (0,00).
(e) Fwd the moment-generating function ofT and show that E(X) = J1., Var(X)
J1.- 3>., E(X-I) = J1.- 1 + >.-1, Var(X- I ) = (>'J1.)-1 + 2>'-2.
(d) Suppose J1. ~ J1.o is known. Show that the gamma family, qa,,6), is a conjugate
pnor.
(e) Suppose that>' = >'0 is known. Show that the conjngate prior formula (1.6.20)
n
produces a function that is not integrable with respect to fl. That is, defined in (1.6.19)
is empty.
(I) Suppose that J1. and>. are both unknown. Show that (1.6.20) produces a function
that is not integrable; that is, f! defined in (1.6,19) is empty.
37, Let XI, ... , X n be i.i.d. as X ~ Np(O, ~o) where ~o is known. Show that the
, conjugate prior generated by (1.6.20) is the N p ( 1]0,761) family, where 1]0 varies freely in
RP, 76 > 0 and I is the p x p identity matrix.
38. Let Xi = (Zi, Yi)T be jj,d. as X = (Z, Y)T, 1 < i < n, where X has the density
" of Example 1.6.3. Write the density of XI, ... ,Xn as a canonical exponential family and
identify T, h, A, and E. Find the expected value and variance of the sufficient statistic.
,,i! 39. Suppose that Y1 , .. 1 Y n are independent, Yi '"'-' N(fLi, a 2 ), n > 4.
i!:"
(a) Write the distribution of Y1 , .. ,Yn in canonical exponential family fonn. Identify
"' T, h, 1), A, and E.
(b) Next suppose that fLi depends on the value Zi of some covariate and consider the
Ii'i submodel defined by the map 1) : (0 1, O2 , 03)T ~ (1'7, <72 jT where 1) is detennined by

I, fLi = exp{OI + 02Zi}, Zl < Z2 < .. , < Zn; (72 = 03

---- ---------------------
Section 1.8 Notes 95

where 8 r E R, O2 E R, 03 > O. This model is sometimes used when IIi is restricted to be


positive. Show that p(y, 0) as given by (1.6.12) is a curved exponential family model with
1=3.
40. Suppose Y 1 , . , y;'l are independent exponentially, E' (Ai), distributed survival times,
n > 3.
(a) Write the distribution of Y1 , ... 1 Yn in canonical exponential family form. Identify
T, h, '1, A, and E.
(b) Recall that J.1i = E (Y'i) = Ai I. Suppose lJi depends on the value Zi of a covariate.
Because Iti > O. fLi is sometimes modeled as

fLi = CXp{ 0 1 + (hZi}, i = 1, ... , n

where not all the z's are equal. Show that p(y, fi) as given by (1.6.12) is a curved expo-
nential family model with 1 = 2.

1.8 NOTES
Note for Section 1.1
(1) For the measure theoretically minded we can assume more generally that the Po are
all dominated by a (J finite measure It and that p(x, 8) denotes dJ;lI, the Radon Nikodym
derivative.

Notes for Section 1,3


~

(I) More natural in the sense of measuring the Euclidean distance between the estimate f}
e. e
~

and the "truth" Squared error gives much more weight to those that are far away from
f} than those close to f}.

(2) We define the lower boundary of a convex set simply to be the set of all boundary points
r such that the set lies completely on or above any tangent to the set at r.

Note for Section 1,4


(I) Source; Hodges, Jr., J. L., D. Keetch, and R. S. Crutchfield. Statlab: An Empirical
Introduction to Statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975.

Notes for Section 1,6


(1) Exponential families arose much earlier in the work of Boltzmann in statistical mechan-
ics as laws for the distribution of the states of systems of particles-see Feynman (1963),
for instance. The connection is through the concept of entropy, which also plays a key role
in infonnation theory-see Cover and Thomas (199]).
(2) The restriction that's x E Rq and that these families be discrete or continuous is artifi-
cial. In general if fL is a (J finite measure on the sample space X. p( x, e) as given by (1.6.1)
96 Statistical Models, Goals, and Performance Criteria Chapter 1

can be taken to be the density of X with respect to fL-see Lehmann (1997), for instance.
This permits consideration of data such as images, positions, and spheres (e.g., the Earth),
and so on.

Note for Section 1.7


(I) u T Mu > 0 for all p x 1 vectors u l' o.

1.9 REFERENCES
BERGER. J. 0 . Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis New York: Springer, 1985.
BERMAN, S. M., "A Stochastic Model for the Distribution ofHIV Latency Time Based on T4 Counts,"
Biomelika. 77,733-741 (1990).
BICKEL. P. J., "Using Residuals Robustly I: Tests for Heteroscedasticity, Nonlinearity," Ann. Statist.
6,266-291 (1978).
BLACKWELL, D. AND M. A. GIRSHICK. Theory ofGames and Statistical Decisions New York: Wiley.
1954.
BOX, G. E. P., "Sampling and Bayes Inference in Scientific Modelling and Robustness (with Discus-
sion)," J. Royal Statist. Soc. A 143, 383-430 (1979).
BROWN, L., Fundamentals of Statistical Exponential Families with Applications in Statistical Deci-
sion Theory, IMS Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, Hayward, 1986.
CARROLL, R.t AND D. RUPPERT, Transformation and Weighting in Regression New York: Chapman
and Hall, 1988.
COVER, T. M. AND J. A. THOMAS, Elements of Information Theory New York: Wiley, 1991.
DE GROOT, M. H., Optimal Statistical Decisions New York: McGraw-Hili, 1969.
DoKSUM, K A AND A. SAMAROV, "Nonparametric Estimation of Global Functionals and a Measure
of the Explanatory Power of Covariates in Regression," Ann. Statist. 23, 1443-1473 (1995).
FERGUSON, T. 5., Mathematical Statistics New York: Academic Press, 1967.
FEYNMAN, R. P., The Feynmtln Lectures on Physics, v. I, R. P. Feynman, R. B. Leighton, and M.
Sands, Eels., Ch. 40 Statistical Mechanics ofPhysics Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1963.
,.,
.
GRENANDER, U. AND M. ROSENBLATT, Statistical Analysis of Stationary Time Series New York: Wi-
,, ley, 1957.
,;;
.,
HorXJEs, JR., J. L., D. KRETcH AND R. S. CRUTCHFIELD, Statlab: An Empirical Introduction to Statis-
r
tics New York: McGraw-Hili, 1975.
i KENDALL, M. G. AND A. STUART, The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vols. II, m New York: Hafner
, Iii I' Publishing Co., 1961, 1966.
L6HMANN, E. L., "A Theory of Some Multiple Decision Problems, I and II," Ann. Math Statist. 22,
1-25,547-572 (1957).
I:
L6HMANN, E. L., "Model Specification: The Views of Fisher and Neyman, and Later Developments,"
Ii
I" Statist. Science 5, 160--168 (1990).
Ii,I' L6HMANN, E. L., Testing Statistical Hypotheses, 2nd ed. New York: Springer, 1997.
Section 1. 9 References 97

LINDLEY, D. V., Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Point of View, Part I:
Probability; Part II: Inference London: Cambridge University Press, 1965.
MANDEL, J., The Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data New York: J. Wiley & Sons, 1964.
NORMAND, S-L. AND K. A. DOKSUM, "Empirical Bayes Procedures for a Change Point Problem with
Application to HIVJAIDS Data," Empirical Bayes and Likelihood Inference, 67-79, Editors: S. E.
Ahmed and N. Reid. New York: Springer, Lecture Notes in Statistics, 2000.
PEARSON, K., "On the General Theory of Skew Correlation and NOnlinear Regression," Proc. Roy.
Soc. London 71, 303 (1905). (Draper's Research Memoirs, Dulan & Co, Biometrics Series II.)
RAIFFA, H. AND R. SCHLAIFFER, Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Division of Research, Graduate
School of Business Administration, Harvard University, Boston, 1961.
SAVAGE., L. 1., The Foundations ofStatistics, J. Wiley & Sons, New York, 1954.
SAVAGE., L. J. ET AL., The Foundation ofStattstical Inference London: Methuen & Co., 1962.
SNEDECOR, G. W. AND W. G. COCHRAN, Statistical Methods, 8th Ed. Ames, IA: Iowa State University
Press, 1989.
WETHERILL, G. B. AND K. D. GLAZEBROOK, Sequential Methods in Statistics New York: Chapman
and Hall, 1986.
,

:i,
I:'
~J
,
o,! I,,
II
1','.:1
I
I

'",
'I i
Chapter 2

METHODS OF ESTIMATION

2.1 BASIC HEURISTICS OF ESTIMATION


2.1.1 Minimum Contrast Estimates; Estimating Equations
Our basic framework is as before, X E X, X """ PEP, usually parametrized as P =
{PO: 8 E e}. In this parametric case, how do we select reasonable estimates for 8 itself?
-
That is, how do we find a function 8(X) of the vector observation X that in some sense
"is close" to the unknown 81 The fundamental heuristic is typically the following. We
consider a function that we shall call a contrast function
p:Xx8--->R
and define
D(Oo,O) EOoP(X,O).
As a function of 8, DC8 0l 9) measures the (population) discrepancy between 8 and the true
value 8 0 of the parameter. In order for p to be a contrast function we require that DC 8 0l 9)
is uniquely minimized for 8 = (Jo. That is, if PO o were true and we knew DC 8 0 ,8) as a
function of 8, we could obtain 8 0 as the minimizer. Of course, we don't know the truth

-
so this is inoperable, but in a very weak sense (unbiasedness), p(X,8) is an estimate of
D(8 0 ,8). So it is natural to consider 8(X) minimizing p(X, 8). This is the most general
fonn of the minimum contrast estimate we shall consider in the next section.
Now suppose e is Euclidean C R d , the true 8 0 is an interior point of e, and 8 -----Jo
D( 8 0 ,8) is smooth. Then we expect
\lOD(Oo,O) =0 (2.1.1)
where V denotes the gradient,

Arguing heuristically again we are led to estimates B that solve


\lOp(X, 6) ~ o. (2.1.2)
The equations (2.1.2) define a special form of estimating equations.

99
100 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

More generally, suppose we are given a function W : X X R d - 4 R d, W - ('l/Jl,' .. , Wd)T


and define

V(l1 o, (1) ~ E I1 , W(X, (1). (2.1.3)


~

Suppose V (8 0 ,8) = 0 has 8 0 as its unique solution for all 8 0 E e. Then we say 8 solving
~

w(X,I1) =0 (2.1.4)

is an estimating equation estimate. Evidently, there is a substantial overlap between the


two classes of estimates. Here is an example to be pursued later.
Example 2.1.1. Least Squares. Consider the parametric version of the regression model of
Example 1.1.4 with I'(z) = g({3, z), {3 E R d , where the function 9 js known. Here the data
are X = {(Zi, l'i) : 1 < i < n} where Yi, "', Yn are independent. A naiural(l) function
p(X, {3) to consider is the squared Euclidean distance between the vector Y of observed
Yi and the vector expectation of Y, IL( z) = (g({3, ZI), ... , g({3, ZnT That is, we take
n
p(X, (3) = !Y - 1L1 2 = L[Yi - g({3, z,)'. (2.1.5)
i=l

Strictly speaking P is not fully defined here and this is a point we shall explore later.
But, for convenience, suppose we postulate that the Ei of Example 1.1.4 are i.i.d. N(O, ua).
Then {3 parametrizes the model and we can compute (see Problem 2.1.16),

I D({3o, (3) E{3,p(X, (3)


n
2 (2.1.6)
n<T;i + L[g({3o,z,) - g({3,z,)J ,
i=1 J

which is indeed minimized at {3 = {3o and uniquely so if and only if the parametrization is
!
I
~

identifiable. An estimate (3 that minimizes p(X, (3) exists if g({3, z) is continuous and

lim{lg(l3,z)l: 1{31 ~ oo} = 00


I
'I
(Problem 2.1.10). The estimate (3 is called the least squares estimate.
~

If, further, g({3, z) is differentiable in {3, then {3 satisfies the equation (2.1.2) or equiv-
alently the system of estimating eq!1ations,
I
~8g~ ~8g~ ~
L- 8/3 ({3, z,)Y; = L- 8/3 ({3, z,)g(l3, z,), (2.1.7)
:i

,
i=l J i=l 3 I
, In the important linear case,
,!I
d
["
'1
L
g({3,zd = LZij!3j andzi = (Zil, ... ,Zid)T
,
j=1

'j

r
Section 2.1 Basic Heuristics of Estimation 101

the system becomes

(2.1.8)

the normal equations. These equations are commonly written in matrix fonn

(2.1.9)

where Zv =IIZijllnxd is the design matrix. Least squares, thus, provides a first example
of both minimum contrast and estimating equation methods.
We return to the remark that this estimating method is well defined even if the Ci are not
i.i.d. N(O, u5). In fact, once defined we have a method of computing a statistic fj from the
data X = {(Zi 1 Xi), 1 < i < n}, which can be judged on its merits whatever the true P
governing X is. This very important example is pursued further in Section 2.2 and Chapter
6. 0
Here is another basic estimating equation example.
Example 2.1.2. Method a/Moments (MOM). Suppose Xl, ... ,Xn are i.i.d. as X ~ P8,
8 E R d and 8 is identifiable. Suppose that 1'1 (8), ... , I'd( 8) are the first d moments of the
population we are sampling from. Thus, we assume the existence of

Define the jth sample moment f1j by,


n
~_l", ;
11 j - - L.- Xi 1 1 < j < d.
n.
t=l

To apply the method of moments to the problem of estimating 9, we need to be able to


express 9 as a continuous function 9 of the first d moments. Thus, suppose

is 1 - 1 from R d to Rd. The method of moments prescribes that we estimate 9 by the


solution of
~

p; = 1';(8),1 <j < d


if it exists. The motivation of this simplest estimating equation example is the law of large
numbers: For X "-' Po, /1j converges in probability to flj(fJ).
More generally, if we want to estimate a Rk-valued function q(8) of 9, we obtain a
MOM estimate of q( 8) by expressing q( 8) as a function of any of the first d moments
1'1, ... , I'd of X, say q(8) = h(I'I, . .. , I'd), d > k, and then using h(p!, ... , lid) as the
estimate of q( 8).
102 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

For instance, consider a study in which the survival time X is modeled to have a gamma
distribution, f(u, '\), with density
[A"/r(,,)]xO-1exp{-Ax}, x>O; ,,>0, A>O.
In this case f) ~ ('" A), 1'1 = E(X) ~ "/ A, and 1" ~ E(X') = ,,(1 + ")/A 2 Solving
for () gives
,,~ (I'l/a)', iii ~ (X/a)';
~ -
A = J-l1/a 2 , A = X/a'
where a 2 = fl,2 - f-li
and 0=2 = n -1 EX1- X 2 In this example, the method of moment es-
timator is not unique. We can, for instance, express () as a function of IJ" and f-l3 = E(X 3 )
and obtain a method of moment estimator based on /11 and fi3 (Problem 2.1.11). 0

Algorithmic issues
We note that, in general, neither minimum contrast estimates nor estimating equation
solutions can be obtained in closed fonn. There are many algorithms for optimization
and root finding that can be employed. An algorithm for estimating equations frequently
used when computationofM(X,) =D'I'(X,) - l~t;(X")1 dxd
J
isquickandM
is nonsingular with high probability is the Newton-Raphson algorithm. It is defined by
initializing with eo, then setting
(2. I.1 0)

,
This algorithm and others will be discussed more extensively in Section 2.4 and in Chap-
,,
, ter 6, in particular Problem 6.6.10.

2.1.2 The Plug-In and Extension Principles


We can view the method of moments as an example of what we call the plug-in (or substitu-
tion) and extension principles, two other basic heuristics particularly applicable in the i.i.d.
case. We introduce these principles in the context of multinomial trials and then abstract
them and relate them to the method of moments.
Example 2.1.3. Frequency Plug-in(2) and Extension. Suppose we observe multinomial
trials in which the values VI, .. l Vk of the population being sampled are known, but their
respective probabilities PI, ... ,Pk are completely unknown. If we let Xl, ... , X n be Ltd.
as X and
Ni = number of indices j such that X j = Vi,

then the natural estimate of Pi = P[X = Vi] suggested by the law of large numbers is
Njn, the proportion of sample values equal to Vi. As an illustration consider a population
of men whose occupations fall in one of five different job categories, I, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Here
k = 5, Vi = i, i = 1, ... ,5, Pi is the proportion of men in the population in the ith job
category and Njn is the sample proportion in this category. Here is some job category
data (Mosteller, 1968).
Section 2.1 Basic Heuristics of Estimation 103

Job Category

l I 2 3 4 5
Ni 23 84 289 217 95 n-2::; ,Ni =708
~

Pi 0.03 0.12 0.41 0.31 0.13 2:::o,i=1


for Danish men whose fathers were in category 3, together with the estimates Pi = NiJn.
Next consider the marc general problem of estimating a continuous function q(Pl' ... ,
Pk) of the population proportions. The frequency plug-in principle simply proposes to re-
place the unknown population frequencies PI, ... ,Pk by the observable sample frequencies
Nt/n, . .. 1 Nk/n. That is, use

(2.1.11)

to estimate q(Pll. lPk). For instance, suppose that in the previous job category table,
categories 4 and 5 correspond to blue-collar jobs, whereas categories 2 and 3 correspond to
white-collar jobs. We would be interested in estimating

q(P"", ,Ps) = (P4 + Ps) - (P2 + P3),


the difference in the proportions of blue-collar and white-collar workers. If we use the
frequency substitution principle, the estimate is

which in our case is 0.44 - 0.53 = -0.09.


Equivalently, let P dennte p ~ (P"." ,Pk) with Pi ~ PIX = 'Vi], 1 < i < k, and
think of this model as P = {all probability distributions Pan {VI, ... , v.}}. Then q(p)
can be identified with a parameter v : P ~ R, that is, v(P) = (P4 + Ps) - (p, + P3),
and the frequency plug-in principle simply says to replace P = (PI, ... ,Pk) in v(P) by
P = (~l ,... 1~!; the multinomial empirical distribution of Xl, ... ,Xn .
), 0

Now suppose that the proportions PI' ... , Pk do not vary freely but are continuous
functions of some d-dimensional parameter 8 = ((h, .. . 1 ()d) and that we want to estimate
a component of 8 or more generally a function q(8). Many of the models arising in the
analysis of discrete data discussed in Chapter 6 are of this type.
Example 2.1.4. Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium. Consider a sample from a population in
genetic equilibrium with respect to a single gene with two alleles. If we assume the three
different genotypes are identifiable, we are led to suppose that there are three types of
individuals whose frequencies are given by the so-called Hardy-Weinberg proportions
2
PI = 0 , P2 ~ 20(1- 0), P3 = (1- 0)2,0 < 0 < 1. (2.1.12)

If N i is the number of individuals of type i in the sample of size n, then (NIl N 2 , N 3 )


has a multinomial distribution with parameters (n,pl ,P2, P3) given by (2.1.12). Suppose
104 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

we want to estimate fJ, the frequency of one of the alleles. Because f) = ~, we can use
the principle we have introduced and estimate by J N l In. Note, however, that we can also
write 0 = 1 - /P3 and, thus, 1 - V Nsfn is also a plausible estimate of O. 0
In general, suppose that we want to estimate a continuous Rl-valued function q of e,
If PI,'" ,Pk are continuous functions of 8, we can usually express q(8) as a continuous
function of PI, ... ,Pk, that is,

q(lJ) = h(p,(IJ), .. . ,Pk(IJ), (2.1.13)

with h defined and continuous on

Given h we can apply the extension principle to estimate q( 8) as,

T(Xl, ... ,Xn ) =h (N, Nk) .


-;;-, ... , -;;- (2.1.14)

As we saw in the Hardy-Weinberg case, the representation (2.1.13) and estimate (2.1.14)
are not unique. We shall consider in Chapters 3 (Example 3.4.4) and 5 how to choose
among such estimates.
We can think of the extension principle alternatively as follows. Let

be a submodel of P. Now q(lJ) can be identified if IJ is identifiable by a parameter v ;


Po ~ R given by v(PO) = q(O). Then (2.1.13) defines an extension of v from Po to P
via v; P --> R where v(P) - h(p) and v(P) = v(P) for P E Po.
The plug-in and extension principles can be abstractly stated as follows:
- -
Plug-in principle. If w,E have an estimate P of PEP such that PEP and v : P ---4 T
is a parameter. then v(P) is the plug-in estimate of v. In particular. in the Li.d. case if P

-
is the space of all distributions of X and Xl, .. . , X n are Ll.d. as X
distribution P of X given by
p. the empirical
f'V

1 n
P[X E Al = -
n.
I:
I(X; E A) (2.1.15)
t=l
", ~

is. by the law of large numbers, a natural estimate of P and v(P) is a plug-in estimate of
, v(P) in this nonparametric context For instance, if X is real and F(x) = P(X < x) is
"1
!
the distribution function (dJ.), consider va(P) = [F-l (a) + Fu 1(a )1. where a E (0, I)
and

F-'(a) = inf{x; F(x) > a}, Fu'(a) = sup{x; F(x) < a}, (2.1.16)
"
Section 2.1 Basic Heuristics of Estimation 105

then Va; (P) is the ath population quantile Xa;. Here x ~ = , (P)
V 1. is called the population
median. A natural estimate is the ath sample quantile

(2.1.17)

where F is the empirical dJ. Here x!., is called the sample median.
~

For a second example, if X is real and P is the class of distributions with EIXlj < 00,
then the plug-in estimate of the jth moment v(P) = f..tj = E(Xj) in this nonparametric
.
I
~ ~

context is the jth sample moment v(P) = xjdF(x) ~ 0- 1 I:~ 1 Xl.


~

Extension principle. Suppose Po is a submodel of P and P is an element of P but not


necessarily Po and suppose v: Po ~ T is a p~eter. If v: P ~ T is an extension of v
in the sense that v(P) = viP) on Po. then v(P) is an extension (and plug-in) estimate of
viP).
With this general statement we can see precisely how method of moment estimates can
be obtained as extension and frequency plug-in estimates for multinomial trials because
k
I'j(8) =L vfPi(8) = h(p(8 = viP,)
i=l

where
k
h(p) ~ L vip, = v(P),
i=1

I n . k .N'l (N) ~
/1j = ~ LXI = Lvi n = h -~- = v(P)
1=1 i= 1
~

and P is the empirical distribution. This reasoning extends to the general i.i.d. case (Prob-
lem 2.1.12) and to more general method of moment estimates (Problem 2.1.13). As stated,
these principles are general. However, they are mainly applied in the i.i.d. case--but see
Problem 2.1.14.
Remark 2.1.1. The plug-in and extension principles are used when Pe, 1/, and v are contin-
uous. For instance, in the multinomial examples 2.1.3 and 2.1.4, Pe as given by the Hardy-
e
Weinberg p(O), is a continuous map from = [0, II to P, v(P8 ) = q(8) = h(p(8)) is a
e
continuous map from to Rand D( P) = h(p) is a continuous map from P to R.
Remark 2.1.2. The plug-in and extension principles must be calibrated with the target
parameter. For instance. let Po be the class of distributions of X = B + E where B E R
and the distribution of E ranges over the class of symmetric distributions with mean zero.
Let viP) be the mean of X and let P be the class of distributions of X = 0 + < where
B E R and the distribution of E ranges over the class of distributions with mean zero. In this
case both VI(P) = Ep(X) and V2(P) = "median of P" satisfy v(P) = v(P), P E Po,
~ -
but only VI(P) = X is a sensible estimate of v(P), P 'Ie Po, because when P is not
~

symmetric. the sample median V2(P) does not converge in probability to Ep(X).
106 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

Here are three further simple examples illustrating reasonable and unreasonable MOM
estimates.

Example 2.1.5. Suppose that Xl, . " , X n is a N(f1, a 2 ) sample as in Example 1.1.2 with
assumptions (1)--(4) holding. The method of moments estimates of f1 and a 2 are X and
-2
a. 0

Example 2.1.6. Suppose X I, ... , X n are the indicators of a set of Bernoulli trials with
probability of success fJ, Because f.LI (8) = (J the method of moments leads to the natural
estimate of 8, X, the frequency of successes. To estimate the population variance B( 1 - 8)
we are led by the first moment to the estimate, X(l - X). Because we are dealing with
(unrestricted) Bernoulli trials, these are the frequency plug-in (substitution) estimates (see
Problem 2.Ll). 0

Example 2.1.7. Estimating the Size of a Population (continued). In Example 1.5.3 where
X" .. C' X n are ij.d. U {I, 2, ... , O}, we find I' = E, (X,) = ~ (0 + I). Thus, 0 = 21' - I
and 2X - 1 is a method of moments estimate of B. This is clearly a foolish estimate if
X (n) = max Xi> 2X - 1 because in this model B is always at least as large as X (n)' 0
As we have seen, there are often several method of moments estimates for the same
q(9). For example, if we are sampling from a Poisson population with parameter B, then B
is both the population mean and the population variance. The method of moments can lead
to either the sample mean or the sample variance. Moreover, because Po = P(X = 0) =
exp{ -O}, a frequency plug-in estimate of 0 is -Iogpo, where Po is n- l [iX, = 0]. We
will make a selection among such procedures in Chapter 3.
i
",
Remark 2.1.3. What are the good points of the method of moments and frequency plug-in?
(a) They generally lead to procedures that are easy to compute and are, therefore, valu- ,
,,

,. able as preliminary estimates in algorithms that search for more efficient estimates. See
Section 2.4.
(b) If the sample size is large, these estimates are likely to be close to the value estimated I,
(consistency). This minimal property is discussed in Section 5.2.
It does turn out that there are "best" frequency plug-in estimates, those obtained by
the method of maximum likelihood, a special type of minimum contrast and estimating
equation method. Unfortunately, as we shall see in Section 2.4, they are often difficult to
compute. Algorithms for their computation will be introduced in Section 2.4.

Discussion. When we consider optimality principles, we may arrive at different types of


estimates than those discussed in this section. For instance, as we shall see in Chapter 3,
estimation of B real with quadratic loss and Bayes priors lead to procedures that are data
weighted averages of (J values rather than minimizers of functions p( (J, X). Plug-in is not
the optimal way to go for the Bayes, minimax, or uniformly minimum variance unbiased
(UMVU) principles we discuss briefly in Chapter 3. However, a saving grace becomes
[
apparent in Chapters 5 and 6. If the model fits, for large amounts of data, optimality prin-
[ ciple solutions agree to first order with the best minimum contrast and estimating equation
, 'I solutions, the plug-in principle is justified, and there are best extensions.
I[

i['l
)" I

i , I
, .
Section 2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 107

Summary. We consider principles that suggest how we can use the outcome X of an
experiment to estimate unknown parameters.
For the model {Pe : () E e} a contrast p is a function from X x H to R such that the
discrepancy

D(lJo,lJ) ~ E'o"p(X, 6), 0 E e c Rd

is uniquely minimized at the true value 8 = 8 0 of the parameter. A minimum contrast esti-
mator is a minimizer of p(X, 0). and the contrast estimating equations are V Op(X,O) =
O.
For data {(Zi, li) : I < i < n} with li independent and E(Yi ) = g((3, Zi), I < i < n,
where 9 is a known function and {3 E Rd is a vector of unknown regression coefficients, a
least squares estimate of {3 is a minimizer of

p(X,(3) ~ L[li - g((3,Zi)j2.

For this contrast, when g({3, z) = ZT{3, the associated estimating equations are called the
normal equations and are given by Z1 Y = ZtZD{3. where ZD = IIziJllnxd is called the
design matrix.
Suppose X ,...., P. The plug-in estimate (PIE) for a vector parameter v = v(P) is
~ ~ ~

obtained by setting fJ = v( P) where P is an estimate of P. When P is the empirical


v
~ ~

probability distribution P E defined by Pe(A) ~ n- 1 L:~ 1 I[X i E AI, then is called


the empirical PIE. If P = PO. 0 E e. is parametric and a vector q( 8) is to be estimated,
~

we find a parameter v such that v(p.) = q(O) and call v(P) a plug-in estimator of q(6).
Method of moment estimates are empirical PIEs based on v(P) = (f.ll, ... , f.ld)T where
f.lj = E( XJ\ 1 < j < d. In the multinomial case the frequency plug-in estimators
are empirical PIEs based on v(P) = (Ph ... ,Pk), where Pj is the probability of the jth
category. 1 < j < k.
Let Po and P be two statistical models for X with Po c P. An extension ii of v from
~

Po to P is a parameter satisfying v(P) = v(P), P E Po. If P is an estimate of P with


~ ~

PEP. D(P) is called the extensionplugin estimate of v(P). The general principles are
shown to be related to each other.

2.2 MINIMUM CONTRAST ESTIMATES AND


ESTIMATING EQUATIONS
2.2.1 Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares
Least squares(1) was advanced early in the nineteenth century by Gauss and Legendre for
estimation in problems of astronomical measurement. It is of great importance in many
areas of statistics such as the analysis of variance and regression theory. In this section
we shall introduce the approach and give a few examples leaving detailed development to
Chapter 6.
108_~ ~_ _~ ~ ~-c-Mc.:,::'hc.:0::d-=-'::Of,-E:::'::';,-m::a,-=-,o-=-n-C--,C-=-ha:::p::,,::,::2

In Example 2.1.1 we considered the nonlinear (and linear) Gaussian model Po given
by
Y, = g(l3, z,) + <" I < i < n (2.2. I)

where Ci are i.i.d. NCO, aJ) and (3 ranges over R d or an open subset. The contrast
n
p(X, 13) = LIY, - g(l3,z,)]'
i=l
~

led to the least squares estimates (LSEs) {3 of {3. Suppose that we enlarge Po to P where
we retain the independence of the Yi but only require

lJ.(z,) = E(Y,) = g(l3,z,), E,) = 0. (2.2.2)

Are least squares estimates still reasonable? For P in the semiparametric model P. which
satisfies (but is not fully specified by) (2.2.2), we can compute still

Dp(l3o, (3) - E p p(X,13)


n n
(2.2.3)
- L Varp,) + L[g(l3 o, z,) - g(l3,z,)2,
i=l i=1

which is again minimized as a function of 13 by 13 = 130 and uniquely so if the map


13 ~ (g(j3,zt}, ... ,g(l3,zn)f is 1-1.
The estimates continue to be reasonable under the Gauss-Markov assumptions.

E,) =0, I<i<n, (2.2.4)


, Var( i) = u 2 > 0\< i < n,
1 (2.2.5)
" COV(fi, fj) = 0, 1 < i < j < n (2.2.6)
,,
because (2.2.3) continues to be valid.
Note that the joint distribution H of (C}, ... ,En) is any distribution satisfying the
Gauss-Markov assumptions. That is, the model is semiparametric with {3, a 2 and H un-
known. The least squares method of estimation applies only to the parameters {31' ... ,f3d
and is often applied in situations in which specification of the model beyond (2.2.4}-{2.2.6)
is difficult
Sometimes z can be viewed as the realization of a population variable Z, that is,
,. (Zi, Yi), 1 < i < n, is modeled as a sample from a joint distribution. This is frequently
.I' the case for studies in the social and biological sciences. For instance, Z could be edu-
cationallevel and Y income, or Z could be height and Y log weight Then we can write
the conditional model of Y given Zj = Zj, 1 < j < n. as in (a) of Example 1.1.4 with
j, <j simply defined as Y; - E(Y; I Zj = Zj). If we consider this model, (Z" Y,) i.i.d. as
,1_' (Z, Y) ~ PEP = {Alljnintdistributions of(Z,Y) such thatE(Y I Z = z) = g(j3,z),
"
j,
13 E R d }. and 13 ~ (g(l3, z,), ... ,g(l3, Zn)T is 1- 1, then 13 has an interpretation as a
,:1, parameter on p. that is, 13 = I3(P) is the miniml2er of E(Y - g(l3, Z)f. This follows
,,
,

"I
Section 2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 109

-
from Theorem 1.4.1. In this case we recognize the LSE {3 as simply being the usual plug-in
- -
estimate (3(P), where P is the empirical distribution assigning mass n- I to each of the n
pairs (Zil Yi).
As we noted in Example 2.1.1 the most commonly used 9 in these models is g({3, z) =
zT (3, which, in conjnnction with (2.2.1), (2.2.4), (2.2.5) and (2.2.6), is called the linear
(multiple) regression modeL For the data {(Zi, Yi); i = 1, ... , n} we write this model in
matrix fonn as
Y = ZD(3 +
where Zv = IIZij 11 is the design matrix. We continue our discussion for this important
special case for which explicit fonnulae and theory have been derived. For nonlinear cases
we can use numerical methods to solve the estimating equations (2.1.7). See also Problem
2.2.41, Sections 6.4.3 and 6.5, and Seber and Wild (1989). The linear model is often the
default model for a number of reasons:
(I) If the range of the z's is relatively small and p(z) is smooth, we can approximate
p(z) by

a
p(z) ~ p(zo) +L
d

j=1
a: J
(zo)(z - zo),

for Zo an interior point of the domain. We can then treat p(zo) - E1=1 g~ (zo)zo as an
nnknown (30 and identify t!;
(zo) with (3j to give an approximate (d + 1) -dimensional
linear model with Zo =
1 and Zj as before and
d
p(z) = L(3jZj.
j=O

This type of approximation is the basis for nonlinear regression analysis based on local
polynomials, see Rnppert and Wand (1994), Fan and Gijbels (1996), and Volnme n.
(2) If as we discussed earlier, we are in a situation in which it is plausible to assume that
(Zi, Yi) are a sample from a (d + 1)-dimensional distribution and the covariates that are the
coordinates of Z are continuous, a further modeling step is often taken and it is assumed
that {Zll ... , Zd, y)T has a nondegenerate multivariate Gaussian distribution Nd+1(Il, 2:).
In that case, as we have seen in Section lA, E(Y I Z = z) can be written as
d
p(z) = (30 + L(3jZj (2.2.7)
j=1

where

(2.2.8)
d
f30 = (-(3" ... , {3d), I)/-, = py - L{3jPj. (2.2.9)
j=1
no Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

Furthennore,
< =y -I'(Z)
2
is independent of Z and has a N(O, ( ) distribution where

(J2 = ayy - Eyz:Ez~Ezy.

Therefore, given Zi = Zi, 1 < i < n, we have a Gaussian linear regression model for Yi,
1 < i < n.
Estimation of {3 in the linear regression model. We have already argued in Examp}e 2. L 1
that. if the parametrization {3 -----) ZD{3 is identifiable, the least squares estimate, {3, exists
and is unique and satisfies the Donnal equations (2.1.8). The parametrization is identifiable
if and only ifZ D is of rank d or equivalently if Z'bZD is affulI rank d; see Problem 2.2.25.
In that case, necessarily, the solution of the normal equations can be given "explicitly" by

(2.2.10)
Here are some examples.
Example 2.2.1. In the measurement model in which Yi is the detennination of a constant
Ih, d = 1, g(z, il,) = il" a~, g(z, il,) = 1 and the normal equation is L:~ 1(Yi - il,) ~ 0,
, , whose solution is
~

il, = (lin) L:~ 1Yi = ii. 0


Example 2.2.2. We want to find out how increasing the amount z of a certain chemical or
fertilizer in the soil increases the amount y of that chemical in the plants grown in that soil.
For certain chemicals and plants. the relationship between z and y can be approximated
well by a linear equation y = 131 + (32Z provided z is restricted to a reasonably small
Ii, interval. If we run several experiments with the same z using plants and soils that are as
,
nearly identical as possible, we will find that the values of y will not be the same. For this
I reason, we assume that for a given z, Y is random with a distribution P(y I z).
Following are the results of an experiment to which a regression model can be applied
I,
(Sned.ecor and Cochran, 1967, p. 139). Nine samples of soil were treated with different
amounts Z of phosphorus. Y is the amount of phosphorus found in com plants grown for
38 days in the different samples of soil.

Zi 1 4 5 9 11 13 23 23 28
1'; 64 71 54 81 76 93 77 95 109
The points (Zi' Yi) and an estimate of the line 131 + 132z are plotted in Figure 2.2.1.
We want to estimate f31 and {32. The nonnal equations are
n n
~(Yi - ill - il2Zi) = 0, LZi(Yi - il, - (3zz,) = O. (2.2.11)
i=l i=l

When the Zi'S are not all equal, we get the solutions

(2.2.12)

,I
'i,1 '.

i
I
Section 2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 111

50

x
o 10 20 30

Figure 22.1. &atter plot {(Zi, Yi); i = 1, ... , n} and sample regression line for the
phosphorus data. 6 is the residual for (Z6, Y6).

and
131 = fi - 132 z (2.2.13)

where Z ~ (lin) I:~ 1 Zi, and fi = (lin) I:~ 1 Yi


~ ~

The line y = /31 + f32z is known as the sample regression line or line of best fit
of Yl, ... ,Yn on ZI, ... , Zn. Geometrically, if we measure the distance between a point
(Zi,Yi) and a line Y ~ a + bz vertically by di = Iy; - (a + bzi)l, then the regression line
minimizes the sum of the squared distances to the n points (ZI' Yl), ... , (zn, Yn). The ver-
~ ~

tical distances i = fYi - (/31 + (32Zi)] are called the residuals of the fit, i = 1, ... , n. The
~ ~

line Y = /31 + (32Z is an estimate of the best linear MSPE predictor Ul + b1Z of Theorem
1.4.3. This connection to prediction explains the use of vertical distance! in regression.
The regression line for the phosphorus data is given in Figure 2.2.1. Here {31 = 61.58 and
~

132 = 1.42. 0
Remark 2.2.1. The linear regression model is considerably more general than appears at
first sight. For instance, suppose we select p real-valued functions of z, 91, ... ,9p. P > d
and postulate that 1-'( z) is a linear combination of 91 (z), ... , 9p( z); that is
p

I-'(z) ~ 2:);9;(Z).
j=1

Then we are still dealing with a linear regression model because we can define WpXI
II
112 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(91 (z), .... gp( z)) T as our covariate and consider the linear model
p

Yi = L ()jWij + Ci, 1<i <n


j=l

where

Wij = 9j(Zi).

For instance, if d = 1 and we take gj (z) = zj, 0 < j < 2, we arrive at quadratic regression,
z;
Yi = 80 + 8 1Zi + 82 + Ci-see Problem 2.2.24 for more on polynomial regression.
Whether any linear model is appropriate in particular situations is a delicate matter par-
tially explorable through further analysis of the data and knowledge of the subject matter.
We return to this in Volume II.
Weighted least squares. In Example 2.2.2 and many similar situations it may not be
reasonable to assume that the variances of the errors Ci are the same for all levels Zi of the
covariate variable. However, we may be able to characterize the dependence of Var( ci) on
Zi at least up to a multiplicative constant. That is, we can write

(2.2.14)

where (J2 is unknown as before, but the Wi are known weights. Such models are called
heteroscedastic (as opposed to the equal variance models that are homoscedastic). The
method of least squares may not be appropriate because (2.2.5) fails. Note that the variables

-,_
y, = Yi _ g((3, Zi) + Ei
-
1 < . < n,
,'l
..;wi ..;wi ..;wi --
,
are sufficient for the Yi and that Var(Ed..;wi) = WW2/Wi = ,,2. Thus. if we setg(3, Zi) = I

g((3, Zi)/..;wi. fi = <d..;wi. then


1
-Yi = g({3,zd + ti, 1 <i < n (2.2.15) i
I
-
and the Y i satisfy the assumption (2.2.5). The weighted least squares estimate of {3 is now
~

,I
i
the value f3, which for given Yi = yd,filii minimizes
n n
L[1Ii - g(3,Zi)]2 = L ~. [Yi - g(,8,z,)]2 (2.2.16)
i=l i=l ~

as a function of {3.
Example 2.2.3. Weighted Linear Regression. Consider the case in which d = 2, Zil = 1, ~ ~

Zi2 = Zi, and g({3, Zi) = {3l + fhZi. i = 1, ... 1 n. We need to find the values {3l and /32 of
(3, and (32 that minimize
n
iI
". I;, L Vi[Yi - ({3, + /3zzi)J2 (2.2.17)
i=l
. .,

,
, .",
I'


"0

r
Section 2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 113

where Vi = l/Wi_ This problem may be solved by setting up analogues to the normal
equations (2.1.8). We can also use the results on prediction in Section 1.4 as follows.
Let (Z*, Y*) denote a pair of discrete random variables with possible values (z" Yl), . .. ,
(Zn, Yn) and probability distribution given by

PI(Z",Y") ~(Zi,Y;)] ~Ui, i ~ I, ... ,n

where
n

Ui = vi/Lvi, i = 1, ... ,n.


i=l

If Itl(Z*) = {31 + {32Z* denotes a linear predictor of y* based on Z .. , then its MSPE is
given by
n
ElY" ~ 1l1(Z")f ~ :L UdYi - (3] + (32 Zi)1 2
i=l

It follows that the problem of minimizing (2.2.1 7) is equivalent to finding the best linear
MSPE predictor of y ... Thus. using Theorem 1.4.3,

a__
V. -
Cov(Z"', Y*) _ L:~l UiZiYi - (L:~1 UlYi)(L:~-l uizd
- n 2 n (2.2.18)
Var(Z") Li~] Ui Zi - (Li~] Ui Z i)2

and
~ = E(Y') - (32E(Z')
(31 ~
n
~I"
~ - ~ UiYi - (3,-
n
I"
n
~ UiZi
n

i"~l F"l

This computation suggests, as we make precise in Problem 2.2.26, that weighted least
squares estimates are also plug-in estimates. 0
~

Next consider finding the,B that minimizes (2.2.16) for g((3, Zi) = z; (3 and for general
d. By following the steps of Exarnple 2.2.1 leading to (2.1.7), we find (Problem 2.2.27)
~

that f3 satisfy the weighted least squares normal equations

where W = diag(wI, ... , wn ) and ZD = IIZijllnxd is the design matrix. When ZD has
rank d and Wi > 0, 1 < i < n, we can write

Remark 2.2.2. More generally, we may allow for correlation between the errors {Ei}.
That is, suppose Var() = a 2W for some invertible matrix W nxn. Then it can be shown
(Problem 2.2.28) that the model Y = ZD,B+ can be transformed to one satisfying (2.2.1)
~

and (2.2.4H2.2.6). Moreover, when g(,B, z) = zT,B, the ,13 minimizing the least squares
contrast in this transformed model is given by (2.2.19) and (2.2.20).
I,
114 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

Remark 2.2.3. Here are some applications of weighted least squares: When the ith re-
sponse Yi is an average of ni equally variable observations, then Var(Y'i) = a 2 /ni, and
Wi = nil. If Yi is the sum of ni equally variable observations, then Wi = ni. If the vari-
ance of Yi is proportional to some covariate, say Zl, then Var(Y'i) = Zil a 2 and Wi = Zil .
In rime series and repeated measures, a covariance structure is often specified for (sec
Problems 2.2.29 and 2.2.42).

2.2.2 Maximum Likelihood


The method of maximum likelihood was first proposed by the German mathematician C. F.
Gauss in 1821. However, the approach is usually credited to the English statistician R. A.
Fisher (1922) who rediscovered the idea and first investigated the properties of the method.
In the fonn we shall give, this approach makes sense only in regular parametric models.
Suppose that p(x,8) is the frequency or density function of X if 8 is true and that e is a
subset of d-dimensional space.
Recall Lx(B), the likelihood function of B, defined in Section 1.5, which is just p(x, B)
considered as a function of 8 for fixed x. Thus, if X is discrete, then for each 8, Lx (8) gives
the probability of observing x. If e is finite and 7r is the uniform prior distribution on e,
then the posterior probability that IJ ~ B given X = x satisfies 7r(B I x) ex Lx(B), where
the proportionality is up to a function of x. Thus, we can think of L x (8) as a measure of
how "likely" 8 is to have produced the observed x. A similar interpretation applies to the
continuous case (see A.7.10).
-
The method of maximum likelihood consists of finding that value O(x) of the parameter
that is "most likely" to have produced the data. That is, if X = x, we seek 8(x) that -
satisfies

Lx(e(x) = p(x,e(x = max{p(x,B) : B E 8} ~ max{Lx(B): B E 8}.


I
e
I
By our previous remarks, if is finite and 7r is uniform, or, more generally, the prior
e -
is constant, such a 8(x) is a mode of the posterior distribution. If such I
density 7r on
- --
a B exists, we estimate any function q(B) by q(B(x. The estimate q(B(x is called the
-
maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of q(8). This definition of q(O) is consistent. That
is, suppose q is 1-1 from 8 to 11; set w = q(B) and write the density of X as Po(x, w) =
-
p(x, q-l (w). If wmaximizes Po (x, w) then w= q(B) (Problem 2.2.16(a). If q is not I-I,
. !I
-
the MLE ofw ~ q(B) is still q(B) (Problem 2.2.16(b).
Here is a simple numerical example.
. 1 Suppose B = 0 or ~ and p(x, B) is given by the following table.

x\B 0 1

I 0 0.10
Section 2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 115

Maximum likelihood estimates need neither exist nor be unique (Problems 2.2.14 and
2.2.13). In the rest of this section we identify them as of minimum contrast and estimating
equation type, relate them to the plug-in and extension principles and some notions in
infonnation theory, and compute them in some important special cases in which they exist,
are unique, and expressible in closed fonn. In the rest of this chapter we study more
detailed conditions for existence and uniqueness and algorithms for calculation of MLEs
when closed forms are not available.
When 0 is real, MLEs can often be obtained by inspection as we see in a pair of impor-
tant examples.
Example 2.2.4. The Normal Distribution with Known Variance. Suppose X "'-' N((), (72),
where (72 is known, and let r.p denote the standard nonnal density. Then the likelihood
function

2
is a nonnal density with mean x and variance 0 . The maximum is, therefore, achieved
uniquely for
~

O(x) ~ x.
Suppose more generally that Xl, ... , X n is a sample from a N( 0, ( 2 ) population. It
is a consequence of Problem 2.2.15 that the MLE of B based on Xl, ... ,Xn is the same
as that based on the sufficient statistic X, which has a N( B, (72 In) distribution. In view of
our result for n = 1 we can conclude that

is the MLE of O. o
Example 2.2.5. Estimating the Size of a Population (continued). Suppose
Xl, ... ,Xn are i.i.d. U {I, 2, ... ,O} with B an integer > 1. We have seen in Example
2.1.7 that the method of moments leads to the unreasonable estimate 2X - 1 for the size ()
of the population. What is the maximum Hkelihood estimate of ()? From (1.5.10) we see
that Lx(O) is 0 for 0 ~ 1, ... , max(x), . .. , x n ) - 1, then jumps to [max(xl, ... , xn)t n
and equals the monotone decreasing function ()-n from then on. Figure 2.2.2 illustrates
e.
the situation. Clearly, max(X 1, .. _ , X n ) is the MLE of This estimate is also somewhat
unreasonable because we know that () > X(n)' 0
Maximum likelihood as a minimum contrast and estimating equation method.. Define
1,(0) = 10gL,(0) = 10gp(x,0).
~

By definition the MLE O(X) if it exists minimizes -logp because -1,(0) is a strictly
decreasing function of p. Log p turns out to be the best monotone function of p to consider
for many reasons. A prototypical one is that if the Xi are independent with densities or
frequency function x () for i = 1 ... n then with X =
118 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

which again enables us to analyze the behavior of B using known properties of sums of
independent random variables. Evidently, there may be solutions of (2.2.27) that are not
maxima or only local maxima, and as we have seen in Example 2.2.5, situations with
f) well defined but (2.2.27) doesn't make sense. Nevertheless, the dual point of view of
(2.2.22) and (2.2.27) is very important and we shall explore it extensively in the natural
and favorable setting of multiparameter exponential families in the next section.
Here are two simple examples with (j real.
Example 2.2.6. Consider a popUlation with three kinds of individuals labeled 1, 2, and 3
and occurring in the Hardy-Weinberg proportions

p(I,O) = 0', p(2, 0) ~ 20(1 - 0), p(3, OJ = (1 - 0)'

where 0 < () < 1 (see Example 2.1.4). If we observe a sample of three individuals and
obtain Xl = 1, X2 = 2, X3 = 1, then
Lx(O) ~ p(l, 0)p(2, O)p(l, 0) = 20'(1- 0)
I
The likelihood equation is

8 5 1
80 Ix (0) = 0 -1-0 =0,
~

which has the unique solution B = ~. Because

, 8'
80,lx(0) =-
5 1
0' - (1- 0)' <
for all B E (0, I), ~ maximizes Lx(B). In general. let nJ, n2, and n3 denote the number
of {Xl, ... , x n } equal to 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Then the same calculation shows that if
2nl + nz and n2 + 2n3 are both positive, the maximum likelihood estimate exists and is
given by

8(x) = 2n, + n,. (2.2.28)


2n
If 2n, + n, is zero, the likelihood is {1 - OJ'", which is maximized by 0 = 0, so the MLE
e
does not exist because = (0, 1). Similarly. the MLE does not exist if 112 + 2n3 = O. 0
Example 2.2.7. Let X denote the number of customers arriving at a service counter during
n hours. If we make the usual simplifying assumption that the arrivals form a Poisson
process, then X has a Poisson distribution with parameter nA, where ). represents the
expected number of arrivals in an hour or, equivalently, the rate of arrival. ]n practice, A is
an unknown positive constant and we wish to estimate A using X. Here X takes on values
{O, 1,2, ... } with probabilities,

e-'"p,ny
p(X,>.) = l,x=O,l, ... (2.2.29)
x.
j1

,'(j.
Section 2.2 Minimum Contrast Estimates and Estimating Equations 119

The likelihood equation is

which has the unique solution), = x/no If x is positive, this estimate is the MLE of ),
(see (2.2.30)). If x = 0 the MLE does not exist. However, the maximum is approached as
,\ I 0. 0
To apply the likelihood equation successfully we need to know when a solution is an
MLE. A sufficient condition, familiar from calculus. is that l be concave in If l is twice e.
differentiable, this is well known to be equivalent to

8'
8B,lx(B) <0, (2.2.30)

for all e.This is the condition we applied in Example 2.2.6. A similar condition applies
for vector parameters.
Example 2.2.8. Multinomial Trials. As in Example 1.6.7, consider an experiment with n
Li.d. trials in which each trial can produce a result in one of k categories. Let Xi = j if
the ith trial produces a result in the jth category, let BJ = P(X. = j) be the probability
of the jth category, and let N j = L:~ 1 l[Xi = j] be the number of observations in the
jth category. We assume that n > k ~ 1. Then, for an experiment in which we observe
nj ~ 2:7 1 I[X. = jl, p(x, fJ) = TI7~1 B7', and
k k
Ix(fJ) = LnjlogB j , fJE6= {fJ:Bj >O'LOj ~ I}. (2.2.31 )
j=1 j=d

To obtain the MLE (J we consider l as a function of 8 1 , ... ,ek-l with

k-l
Ok ~ 1- LBj (2.2.32)
j=1

We first consider the case with all the nj positive. Then p(x, 8) = 0 if any of the 8j are
~

zero; thus, the MLE must have all OJ > 0, and must satisfy the likelihood equa~ons

k k
8
8B1x(fJ) = 8B
8 " n, 80,
L..,n,logB, = L..,o.8B
" .
=0, J = I, ... ,k-l.
3 31=1 1=13

~ ~

By (2.2.32), 8Bk/8Bj -I, and the equation becomes (BkIB j )


(2.2.32) to find
~ n
OJ = ---.1., j = 1, ... , k.
n
120 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

To show thaI this () maximizes lx(8), we check the concavity of lx(O): let 1 <r <k- I,
1 <j < k - 1, then

(2.2.33)

It follows that in this nj > 0, OJ > 0 case, Ix(O) is strictly concave and (} is the unique
~ ~

maximizer of lx(O). Next suppose that nj = 0 for some j. Then (} with OJ = njjn.
j = 1, ... , k, is still the unique MLE of fJ. See Problem 2.2.30. The 0 < OJ < 1,
1 < j < k, version of this example will be considered in the exponential family case in
Section 2.3.
Example 2.2.9. Suppose that Xl,.' ., X n are Li.d. N(lll 0- 2 ) with J1. and 0- 2 both unknown.
Using the concavity argument, we find that for n > 2 the unique MLEs of Il and 0- 2 are
Ii = X and iT2 ~ n- 1 L:~ ,(Xi - X)2 (Problem 2.2.11(a)).
Maximum likelihood and least squares
We conclude with the link between least squares and maximum likelihood. Suppose
the model Po of Example 2.1.1 holds and X = (Y" ... , YnJT. Then

Ix (3) log IT ~'P (V; -


i=l ao
g(3, Zi))
0-0
n (2.2.34)
n log 2 I"" 2
-"2 (21To-o) - 20-2 L..,IV; ~ g(3, zi)1 .
o 1=1
Evidently maximizing Ix(3) is equivalent to minimizing L:~ IIV; -
g(3,Zi)]2. Thus,
least squares estimates are maximum likelihood for the particular model Po. As we have
seen and shall see more in Section 6.6, these estimates viewed as an algorithm applied
to the set of data X make sense much more generally. It is easy to see that weighted
least squares estimates are themselves maximum likelihood estimates of f3 for the model
Yi independent N(g({3, Zi), wi(5). 1 < i < n. More generally, we can consider min- 'ffi
imizing L:i.;lV; ~ g((3, Zi)J[l:} - g(3, Zj)]Wij where W = Ilwijllnxn is a symmetric
positive definite matrix, as maximum likelihood estimates for f3 when Y is distributed as
lV. ((g((3, z,), ... , g(3, zn) 0-3W- 1), see Problem 2.2.28.
f,
Summary. In Section 2.2.1 we consider least squares estimators (LSEs) obtained by min-
imizing a contrast of the fonn L:~ 1 IV; - gi(3) 12 , where E(V;) = gi(3), gi, i = 1, ... , n,
are known functions and {3 is a parameter to be estimated from the independent observa-
tions YI , ... 1 Yn , where Var(Yi) does not depend on i. This approach is applied to ex-
periments in which for the ith case in a study the mean of the response Yi depends on


Section 2.3 Maximum Likelihood in Multiparameter Exponential Families 121

a set of available covariate values Zil, ... ,zid. In particular we consider the case with
9i({3) = z=1=1 Zij{3j and give the LSE of (3 in the case in which I!ZijllnXd is of rank
d. Extensions to weighted least squares, which are appropriate when Var(Yj) depends on
i or the Y's are correlated, are given. In Section 2.2.2 we consider maximum likelihood
~

estimators (MLEs) 0 that are defined as maximizers of the likelihood Lx (B) = p(x, 8).
These estimates are shown to be equivalent to minimum contrast estimates based on a con-
trast function related to Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler information divergence.
In the case of independent response variables Yi that are modeled to have a N(9i({3), (}"2)
distribution, it is shown that the MLEs coincide with the LSEs.

2.3 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD IN MUlTIPARAMETER


EXPONENTIAL FAMILIES
Questions of existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimates in canonical ex-
ponential families can be answered completely and elegantly. This is largely a consequence
of the strict concavity of the log likelihood in the natural parameter TI. though the results
of Theorems 1.6.3 and 1.6.4 and Corollaries 1.6.1 and 1.6.2 and other exponential family
properties also playa role. Concavity also plays a crucial role in the analysis of algorithms
in the next section. Properties that derive solely fTOm concavity are given in Propositon
2.3.1.
We start with a useful general framework and lemma. Suppose 8 c RP is an open set.
Let &e = e-e be the boundary of e. e
where denotes the closure of in [-00. oo]P. e
That is, a8 is the set of points outside of 8 that can be obtained as limits of points in e,
including all points with oo as a coordinate. For instance, if X N(B I , (h), = RxR+
I"V e
and

De= {(a,b) ,a= oo,a < b< oo} U {(a, b) : aER,bE {a,oo}}.

e
In general, for a sequence {8 m } of points from open, we define 8 1n .- ae as m --t 00
to mean that for any subsequence {B1nI<} either 8 1nk --t t with t e, or 8 1nk diverges
with 181nk I - 00, as k - 00, where II denotes the Euclidean norm. For instance, in the
N(O" O2 ) case, (a, m- 1 ), (m, b), (-m, b), (a, m), (m, m- I ) all tend to De as m ~ 00.
Lemma 2.3.1. Suppose we are given a function 1: e --t R where e c RP is open and 1 is
continuous. Suppose also that

lim{l(li) : Ii ~ De} = -00. (2.3.1)

e such that
~

Then there exists 8 E

1(8) = max{l(li) : Ii E e}.

Proof. See Problem 2.3.5.


Existence and unicity of the MLE in exponential families depend on the strict concavity
of the log likelihood and the condition of Lemma 2.3.1 only. Formally.
122 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

Proposition 2.3.1. Suppose X ~ (PII ; II E j, e e


open C RP, with corresponding
densities p(x, II). [ffunher {x (II) =
logp(x, II) is strictly concave and 1,(11) ~ -00 as
e ---t 88, then the MLE8(x) exists and is unique.
Proof. From (B.9) we know that II ~ lx(lI) is continuous on e. -
By Lemma 2.3.1, lI(x)
exists. If 0, and 0, are distinct maximizers, then Ix (hO! + 0,)) > ~ (fx(Od +lx (0,)) =
-
lx(O.), a contradiction.
Applications of this theorem are given in Problems 2.3.8 and 2.3.12. 0
We can now prove the following.

Them-em 2.3.1. Suppose P is the canonical exponential/amity generated by (T, h) and


that
(i) The natural parameter space, E. is open.
(ii) The family is of rank k.
Let x be the observed data vector and set to = T(x).
(a) If to E R k satisfies!!)

Ifc 'I" 0 (2.3.2)


!
then the MLE Tj exists, is unique, and is a solution to the equation

I (2.3.3)

(b) Conversely, if to doesn't satisfy (2.3.2), then the MLE doesn't exist and (2.3.3) has
I' no solution.
i1 We, thus, have a necessary and sufficient condition for existence and uniqueness of the
MLE given the data.
!, Define the convex suppon of a probability P to be the smallest convex set C such that
I
I.
P(C) = 1.
"

Corollary 2.3.1. Suppose the cOlulitions o/Theorem 2.3.1 hold. /fCT is the convex suppon
ofthe distribution ofT (X), then 1] exists and is unique ijfto E ~ where C!i: is the interior
of CT.
Proofof Theorem 2.3.1. We give the proof for the continuous case.
Existence and Uniqueness o/the MLE ij. Without loss of generality we can suppose h(x) =
,
".,
pix, '10) for some reference '10 E [ (see Problem 1.6.27). Furthennore, we may also
! assume that to = T(x) = 0 because P is the same as the exponential family generated by
T(x) - to. Then, if lx('1) =
logp(x,'1) with T(x) = 0,

We show that if {11 m } has no subsequence converging to a point in E, then lx(11 m ) - -00,
,,
which implies existence of 17 by Lemma 2.3.1. Write 11 m = Am U m , U m = Jl~::rr' Am =
i
,,
.'1. '

L
n,.. "
Section 2.3 Maximum Likelihood in Multiparameter Exponential Families 123

111]=11. So, lIu m ll ~


1. Then, if {1]m} has no subsequence converging in it must have a
subsequence { 11m k} that obeys either case 1 or 2 as follows.

Case 1: Amk -t 00, u mk -t u. Write Eo for E110 and Po for P11o . Then

because for some 6 > 0, Po[uTT(X) > 61 > O. So we have

Case 2: Amk -----t A, um~. -t u. Then AU by assumption. So

In either case limm.k Lx( 11m.,J = -00. Because any subsequence of {11m} has no subse-
quence converging in E we conclude Lx ( 11m) ---t -00 and Tj exists. It is unique and satisfies
(2.3.3) by TheoTem 1.6.4.

Nonexistence: if (2.3.2) fails, there exists c #


such that Po[cTT < 0] = 1
E1](c T T(X)) < 0, fOT all 1]. If ij exists then E'I T ~ 0 '*
E'I(cTT) ~ 0,* P'IlcTT =
'*
0] = I, contradicting the assumption that the family is of rank: k. 0

PrOD/a/Corollary 2.3.1. By (B.9.1) a point to belongs to the interior C of a convex


set C iff there exist points in CO on either side of it, that is, iff, for every d i= 0, both
{t : dTt > dTto} n CO and {t : dTt < dTto} n CO are nonempty open sets. The
equivalence of (2.3.2) and COTollary 2.3.1 follow. 0

Example 2.3.1. The Gaussian Model. Suppose X"", ,Xn are i.i.d. N(p" ( 2 ), I' E R,
(1"2 > O. As we observed in Example 1.6.5, this is the exponential family generated by

T(X) = (L:7 1 Xi, L:7


I Xl) and 1. Evidently, CT = R )( R+ FOT n > 2, T(X) has
a density and, thus, CT = C~ and the MLE always exists. Por n = 1, = 0 because CJ.
T(XI) is always a point on the parabola T2 = T'f and the MLE does not exist. This is
equivalent to the fact that if n = 1 the formal solution to the likelihood equations gives
0'2 = 0, which is impossible. 0

In fact, existence of MLEs when T has a continuous ca.se density is a general phe-
nomenon.

Theorem 2.3.2. Suppose the conditions ofTheorem 2.3.1 hold and T k x 1 has a continuous
case density on R k Then the MLE Tj exists with probabiliry 1 and necessarily satisfies
(2.3.3).
124 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

Proof. The boundary of a convex set necessarily has volume 0 (Problem 2.3.9), thus, if T
has a continuous case density PT(t), then

and the result follows from Corollary 2.3.1. o


Remark 2.3.1. From Theorem 1.6.3 we know that E,.,T(X) = A(,.,). Thus, using (2.3.3),
the MLE 7j in exponential families has an interpretation as a generalized method of mo-
ments estimate (see Problem 2.1.13 and the next example). When method of moments
and frequency substitution estimates are not unique, the maximum likelihood principle in
many cases selects the best" estimate among them. For instance, in the Hardy-Weinberg
lit ~ ..;n;.ln, liz = vn3/n and li3 = (2nl + nz)/2n are
examples 2.1.4 and 2.2.6, I -
-
-
frequency substitution estimates (Problem 2.1.1), but only Os is a MLE. In Example 3.4.4
we will see that 83 is, in a certain sense, the best estimate of 8.
A nontrivial application of Theorem 2.3.2 follows.
Example 2.3.2. The Two-Parameter Gamma Family. Suppose Xl, ... ,Xn are i.i.d. with
density 9p,>..(X) = r~;)e->"XxP-I. x > 0, P > 0, >.. > O. This is a rank 2 canonical
exponential family generated by T = (L log Xi, LXi), h(x) = X-I, with

i', by Problem 2.3.2(a). The likelihood equations are equivalent to (problem 2.3.2(b

r' -
r(jJ) -log A = log X (2.3.4)

-~=X (2.3.5)
A
where log X = ~ L:~ t1ogXi. It is easy to see that ifn > 2, Thasadensity. We conclude
from Theorem 2.3.2 that (2.3.4) and (2.3.5) have a unique solution with probability 1. How
to find such nonexplicit solutions is discussed in Section 2.4. 0
If T is discrete MLEs need not exist. Here is an example.
Example 2.3.3. Multinomial Trials. We follow the notation of Example 1.6.7. The statistic
of rank k - I which generates the family is T(k_l) = (Tl>"" T._t)T, where Tj(X) =
L~ I I(Xi = j), I < j < k. We assume n > k - I and verify using Theorem 2.3.1 that
in this caseMLEs of"'j = 10g(AjIAk), I <t< k - I, where 0 < Aj =
PIX = j] < I,
exist iff all Tj > O. They are determined by Aj = Tj In, I <j < k. To see this note that
Tj > 0, I < j < k iff 0 < Tj < n, I < j < k. Thus, if we write c T to = L
{CjtjO : Cj >
L
O} + {cjtjO : Cj < O} we can increase c T to by replacing a tjO by tjo + I in the first sum
or a tjO by tjO - 1 in the second. Because the resulting value of t is possible if 0 < tjO < n,
I < j < k, and one of the two sums is nonempty because c oF 0, we see that (2.3.2) holds.

i
i

bJ- _ I
Section 2.3 Maximum likelihood in Multiparameter Exponential Families 125

On the other hand, if any TJ = 0 or n, 0 < j < k - 1 we can obtain a contradiction to


(2.3.2) by taking Cj = -1(i = j), 1 < i < k - 1. The remaining case T k = a gives a
contradiction if c = (1,1, ... , 1)T. Alternatively we can appeal to Corollary 2.3.1 directly
(Problem 2.3.10). D

Remark 2.3.1. In Example 2.2.8 we saw that in the multinomial case with the clQsed
parameter set {Aj : Aj > 0, L;~l Aj = I}, n > k-l, the MLEs ofA"j = 1, ... ,k,exist
and are unique. However, when we put the multinomial in canonical exponential family
form, our parameter set is open. Similarly, note that in the Hardy-Weinberg Example 2.2.6,
if 201 + 0, = 0, the MLE does not exist if 8 ~ (0,1), whereas if B = [0,1] it does exist
~nd is unique. 0
The argument of Example 2.3.3 can be applied to determine existence in cases for
which (2.3.3) does not have a closed-form solution as in Example 1.6.8-see Problem
2.3.1 and Haberman (1974).
In some applications, for example, the bivariate normal case (Problem 2.3.13). the
following corollary to Theorem 2.3.1 is useful.
Corollary 2.3.2. Consider the exponential family
k
p(x,B) ~ h(x)exp LCj(B)Tj(x) - B(B) , x E X, BEe.
j=l

Let CO denote the interior of the range of (c, (B), ... , Ck (B)) T and let x be the observed
data. If the equations

have a solution B(x) E Co, then it is the unique MLE ofB.


When P is not an exponential family both existence and unicity of MLEs become more
problematic. The following result can be useful. Let Q = {PII : II E e), e open C R=,
m < k - I, be a cUlVed exponential family

p(x,lI) ~ exp{cT (II)T(x) - A(c(II))}h(x) (2.3.6)

Suppose c : 8 ~ [ C R k has a differential c( II) = ~~, (II)


, mxk
on e. Here [ is the
natural paramerer space of the exponential fantily P generated by (T, h). Then
Theorem 2.3.3. lfP above satisfies the condition of Theorem 2.3.1. c(8) is closed in [
~

and T(x) = to satisfies (2.3.2) so that the MLE ij in P exists, then so does the MLE II in
Q and it satisfies the likelihood equation
cT(ii) (to - A(c(ii)) = O. (2.3.7)
~

Note that c(lI) E c(8) and is in general not ij. Unfortunately strict concavity of Ix is
not inherited by curved exponential families, and unicity can be lost-take c not one-to-one
for instance.
126 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

The proof is sketched in Problem 2.3.11.


Example 2.3.4. Gaussian with Fixed Signal to Noise. As in Example 1.6.9, suppose
Xl, ... ,Xn are i.i.d. N'(fl,0'2) with J-l/ a = AO > a known. This is a curved exponential
family with CI (It) = ,
C2 (It) = - 2~~2 , Jl > 0, corresponding to 1]1 = -//x' 1]2 = - 2;2 .

Evidently c(8) = {(lh,ry,) : ry, = -~ryf,\()',ryl > O,ry, < O}, which is closed in
E = {( ryt> ry,) : ry, E R, ry, < O}, As a consequence of Theorems 2,3,2 and 2,3,3, we can
conclude that an MLE Ii always exists and satisfies (2,3,7) if n > 2, We find

C(O) = .!0b'-',it- 3)T,


and from Example 1,6,5

A'()
1/ = 21 n( -ryd'1' , '1,/2'1'
" - 1/'1') T ,

Thus, with I, = L: Xi and I, = L: xl, Equation (2,3,7) becomes


).,g( -it-' ,it- 3 )(t, - nit, t, - n(it' + )"5it'))T = 0,
which with Ji2 = n- I LX; simplifies to
J-l2 + A6XIl- A6iL2 = 0

Ii,: Ii ~ ~[).,gx).,oJ).,5X' +41i2]'


Note that 11+11_ = --'6M2 < 0, which implies i"i+ > 0, 11- < O. Because It > 0, the
solution we seek is ii+. o
Example 2.3.5. Location-Scale Regression. Suppose that }jI .. , , l}m. j = 1, ... , n,
are n independent random samples, where 0l N(tLj 1 0'1). Using Examples 1.6.5 and
"'->

1.6.10, we see that the distribution of {01 : j = 1, ... 1 n, l = 1, ... , m} is a 2n-parameter


canonical exponential family with 'TJi = /tila;. 'TJn+i = -1/2a;, i = 1, ... ,n, generated
by h(Y) = 1 and
i
q,,
m)T
I
T(Y)
m m

= ( ~Yll'''' ,~Yn,,~Y'1,",
m

f?.?'
',',
", Next suppose, as in Example 1.6,10, that
"
tLi = (}1 + 82 z i , af = f)3(8 1 + 82 z i )2, Zl < ... < Zn
,, '' where Zt, ... ,Zn are given constants. Now p(y, 9) is a curved exponential family of the
I
form (2,3,6) with
,
"


Section 2.4 Algorithmic Issues 127

If m > 2, then the full 2n-parameter model satisfies the conditions of Theorem 2.3.1. Let
be the canonical parameter set for this full model and let

e ~ (II: II, E R,02 E R,O, > OJ.


~ ~

Then c(8) is closed in and we can conclude that for m > 2, an MLE (J of (J exists and ()
satisfies (2.3.7). 0

Summary. In this section we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of
MLEs in canonical exponential families of full rank with open (Theorem 2.3.1 and Corol-
lary 2.3.1). These results lead to a necessary condition for existence of the MLE in curved
exponential families but without a guarantee of unicity or sufficiency. Finally, the basic
property making Theorem 2.3.1 work, strict concavity, is isolated and shown to apply to a
broader class of models.

2.4 ALGORITHMIC ISSUES


As we have seen, even in the context of canonical multiparameter exponential families,
such as the two-parameter gamma, MLEs may not be given explicitly by fonnulae but only
implicitly as the solutions of systems of nonlinear equations. In fact, even in the classical
~

regression model with design matrix ZD of full rank. d, the fonnula (2. L 10) for {3 is easy
to write down symbolically but not easy to evaluate if d is at all large because inversion of
Z'bZD requires on the order of nd 2 operations to evaluate each of d(d + 1)/2 tenns with
n operations to get Z'bZD and then, if implemented as usual, order d3 operations to invert.
The packages that produce least squares estimates do not in fact use fonnula (2. L 10).
It is not our goal in this book to enter seriously into questions that are the subject of
textbooks in numerical analysis. However, in this section, we will discuss three algorithms
of a type used in different statistical contexts both for their own sakes and to illustrate what
kinds of things can be established about the black boxes to which we all, at various times,
entrust ourselves.
We begin with the bisection and coordinate ascent methods, which give a complete
though slow solution to finding MLEs in the canonical exponential families covered by
Theorem 2.3.1.

2.4.1 The Method of Bisection


The bisection method is the essential ingredient in the coordinate ascent algorithm that
yields MLEs in k-parameter exponential families. Given f continuous on (a, b), f i
strictly, f( a+) < 0 < f (b- ), then, by the intermediate value theorem, there exists unique
x*(a, b) such that f(x*) = O. Here, in pseudocode, is the bisection algOrithm to find x*.
Given tolerance > a for IXfinal - x*l:
Find Xo < x" f(xo) < 0 < f(x') by taking Ixol, Ixd large enough. Initialize x61d ~
XI, x o1d = xo.
Methods of Estimation Chapter 2
128

(I) If IX~ld - xoldl < 2E, xfinal = !(x~ld + x old ) and return xfinal'
(2) Else, Xnew = !(x~ld + x~ld)'
(3) If f(xnew) = 0, xfinal = Xnew

(4) If f(xnew) < 0, x~ld ~ Xnew

(5) If f(xnew) > 0, x~ld = Xnew


Go to (I).
End
Lemma 2.4.1. The bisection algorithm stops at a solution xfinal such that

i
i
Proot If X m is the mth iterate of Xnew

, lx, - xol 1
(I)

Moreover, by the intermediate value theorem,


,
(2) Xm < x" < X m +l for all m.

iI Therefore,
I,

i, (3)
i and X m -+ x* as m --j. 00. Moreover, for m = log2(lxt - xol/),IXm+l - x*1 < . o i
I !
If desired one could evidently also arrange it so that, in addition, If(xfinal)1 < E.
From this lemma we can deduce the following.
Theorem 2.4.1. Let p(x I 1]) be a one-parameter canonical exponentialfamily generated by
(T, h), satisfying the conditions of Theorem 2.3.1 and T = to E C~, the interior (a, b) of
the convex support a/PT. Then, the MLE Tj, which exists and is unique by Theorem 2.3.1,
may befound (to tolerance ) by the method afbisection applied to

f(.,.,) = EryT(X) - to

Proaf. By Theorem 1.6.4, !'(.,.,) = VarryT(X) > 0 for all .,., so that f is strictly increasing
and continuous and necessarily because i; exists, f(a+) < 0 < f(b-). 0
I' Example 2,4.1. The Shape Parameter Gamma Family. Let X" ... , X n be i.i.d. [(8,1),

(2.4.1)
Section 2.4 Algorithmic Issues 129

Because T(X) = L:~' I log Xi has a density for all n the MLE always exists. It solves the
equation
r'(B) T(X)
r(B) n
which by Theorem 2.4.1 can be evaluated by bisection. This example points to another
hidden difficulty. The function r(B) = J::
x'-Ie-xdx needed for the bisection method
can itself only be evaluated by numerical integration or some other numerical method.
However, it is in fact available to high precision in standard packages such as NAG or
MATLAB. In fact, bisection itself is a defined function in some packages. 0

2.4.2 Coordinate Ascent


The problem we consider is to solve numerically, for a canonical k-parameter exponential
family,
E1/(T(X = A(1/) = to
when the MLE Tj = Tj(to) exists. Here is the algorithm, which is slow, but as we shall see,
always converges to Ti,
The case k = 1: see Theorem 2.4.1.
The general case: Initialize
~o
1] = (""
'TJll' "")
'TJk

Solve

~1
f or1]k: [) A(~l ~1 )
8'T]k 1]ll1'J2, .. ,'TJk =tk'

Set
.-oJ _ (~1 "" -{}) ~02 _ (~1 ~1 -{} "") d
1] = 1]1,1]2,,'TJk, 1] = 1]I,1]2,'TJ3,,'fJk' an soon,
and finally
~Ok _ ~Il) _ (~1 ~1)
1] =1] - 1]1"",'fJk

Repeat, getting 1j 1r), r > 1, eventually.


Notes:
(1) in practice, we would again set a tolerenceto be, say c, for each of the if', 1 <I<
k, in cycle j and stop possibly in midcycle as soon as
130 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(2) Notice that g:,


(iii,., ilL"
'II, iii;,',)
is the expectation of TI(X) in the one-
parameter exponential family model with all parameters save T1I assumed known. Thus, the
algorithm may be viewed as successive fitting of one-parameter families. We pursue this
discussion next.
Theorem 2.4.2. (fij(e) are as above, (i), (ii) a/Theorem 2.3.1 hold and to E C!J,.
1j(r) ---t ij as r ---t 00.

Proof. We give a series of steps. Let 1(71) = tif '1- A(71) + log hex). the log likelihood,
(I) l(ij'j) Tin j for i fixed and in;, ff 1 < j < k. ij'j and ij'(j+I) differ in only one
coordinate for which iji(j+1) maximizes l. Therefore, limi,j l(i/i) = A (say) exists and is
> -00.
(2) The sequence (iji!, ... , ijik) has a convergent subsequence in t x ... x t

( '~ini -ink)
11 , .. ,,'11 ---t
(I
1J , ... ,1J k) .
! j
But 71j E [. 1 < j < k. Else lim, I(W ) = -00 for some j.
(3) I (71j) = A for all j because the sequence oflikelihoods is monotone.
(4) :~i (77') = 0 because :~; (Wn') ~ O. 'tn.
(5) Because 1]1, rp differ only in the second coordinate, (3) and (4) => 1]1 .,.?
Continuing, TIl = ... = 7Jk. Here we use the strict concavity of t.
(6) By (4) and (5). A(71') ~ to. Hence, 71 1 is the unique MLE.
To complete the proof notice that if 1j(rk ) is any subsequence of 1j(r) that converges to
ij' (say) then, by (I).l(ij') = A. Because l(ijI) ~ Aand the MLE is unique, W = iji = ij.
Bya standard argument it follows that, 1j(r) ~ 1j. 0

Example 2.4.2. The Two-Parameter Gamma Family (continued). We use the notation of
Example 2.3.2. For n > 2 we know the MLE exists. We can initialize with the method
-
of moments estimate from Example 2.1.2, .,\(0) = ~,pO) =
~ -2
;2'
We now use bisection
--' r' .-I ~(~ 1 --
to get V,I) solving r0',I)) = log X + log A 0) and then A(1) = pY-. ij = (V'I) , _A (1),
(1)

Continuing in this way we can get arbitrarily close to 1j. This two-dimensional problem is

~ -
essentially no harder than the one-dimensional problem of Example 2.4.1 because the equa-
tion leading to Anew given bold' (2.3.5), is computationally explicit and simple. Whenever
we can obtain such steps in algorithms, they result in substantial savings of time. 0
It is natural to ask what happens if, in fact, the MLE 1j doesn't exist; that is. to C.
Fortunately in these cases the algorithm, as it should, refuses to converge (in fI space!)-see
Problem 2.4.2.
I
We note some important generalizations. Consider a point we noted in Example 2.4.2:
For some coordinates l,1j{ can be explicit. Suppose that this is true for each l. Then each
step of the iteration both within cycles and from cycle to cycle is quick. Suppose that we
can write fiT = (fir, ... , fI;) where flj has dimension d j and 2::;=1 d j = k and the
problem of obtaining ijl(tO. 71J; j I) can be solved in closed form, The case we have


Section 2.4 Algorithmic Issues 131

just discussed has d 1 = ... = dr = 1, r = k. Then it is easy to see that Theorem 2,4.2 has
a generalization with cycles of length r, each of whose members can be evaluated easily.
A special case of this is the famous Deming-Stephan proportional fitting of contingency
tables algorithm-see Bishop, Feinberg, and Holland (1975), for instance, and Problems
2.4.9-2.4.10.
Next consider the setting of Proposition 2.3.1 in which Ix(O), the log likelihood for
e
~

8 E open C RP, is strictly concave. If 8(x) exists and Ix is differentiable, the method
extends straightforwardly. Solve g~: (Bt, ... 1 B; -1' Bj , BJ+l' ... ,B~) = 0 by the method of
bisection in Bj to get OJ for j = 1, ... ,p, iterate and proceed. Figure 2.4.1 illustrates the
process. See also Problem 2.4.7.
The coordinate ascent algorithm can be slow if the contours in Figure 2.4.1 are not
close to sphericaL It can be speeded up at the cost of further computation by Newton's
method, which we now sketch.

o
o 1 2 3

Figure 2.4.1. The coordinate ascent algorithm. The graph shows log likelihood contours,
that is, values of (B 1 ,B2 )T where the log likelihood is constant. At each stage with one
coordinate fixed, find that member of the family of contours to which the vertical (or hori-
zontal) line is tangent. Change other coordinates accordingly.
132 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

2.4.3 The Newton-Raphson Algorithm


An algorithm that, in general, can be shown to be faster than coordinate ascent, when
it converges, is the Newton-Raphson method. This method requires computation of the
inverse of the Hessian, which may counterbalance its advantage in speed of convergence
when it does converge. Here is the method: If 110 ld is the current value of the algorithm,
then

ii new = iiold - k I (iiold)(A(iiold) - to). (2.4.2)

The rationale here is simple. If 7J o ld is close to the root 'ij of A(ij) = to. then by
expanding A(ij) around 11old' we obtain

f1new is the solution for 1] to the approximation equation given by the right- and left-hand
sides. If 110 ld is close enough to fj, this method is known to converge to ij at a faster rate
than coordinate ascent-see Dahlquist, Bjork, and Anderson (1974). A hybrid of the two
methods that always converges and shares the increased speed of the Newton-Raphson
method is given in Problem 2.4.7.
Newton's method also extends to the framework of Proposition 2.3.1. In this case, if
l(B) denotes the log likelihood, the argument that led to (2.4.2) gives

(2.4.3)

Example 2.4.3. Let Xl,. _., X n be a sample from the logistic distribution with d.f.

F(x, B) = [I + exp{ -(x - B) WI.

The density is 1

exp{ -(x - B)} 1


l(x,B) = [i+exp{-(x-B)}j2'
We find
n
1
l(B) n-2Lexp{-(X, -B)}F(Xi,B) 1

l(B) -2 L
n
i=l

I(X" B) < O.
I
1

i=l I
The Newton-Raphson method can be implemented by taking Bold -
X. o
The Newton-Raphson algorithm has the property that for large n, iinew after only one
step behaves approximately like the MLE. We return to this property in Problem 6.6.10.
When likelihoods are noncave. methods such as bisection, coordinate ascent, and
Newton-Raphson's are still employed, though there is a distinct possibility of nonconver-
gence or convergence to a local rather than global maximum. A one-dimensional problem

7
Section 2.4 Algorithmic Issues 133

in which such difficulties arise is given in Problem 2.4.13. Many examples and impor-
tant issues and methods are discussed, for instance, in Chapter 6 of Dahlquist, Bjork, and
Anderson (1974).

2.4.4 The EM (Expectation/Maximization) Algorithm


There are many models that have the following structure. There are ideal observations,
e
X ~ Po with density p(x, 0),0 E c Rd Their log likelihood Ip,x(B) is "easy" to max-
imize. Say there is a closed-fonn MLE or at least Ip,x(B) is concave in B. Unfortunately,
we observe 5 =5(X) ~ Qo with density q(s, 0) where I", (0) = log q(s, 0) is difficultto
maximize; the function is not concave, difficult to compute, and so on. A fruitful way of
thinking of such problems is in terms of 8 as representing part of X, the rest of X is "miss-
ing" and its "reconstruction" is part of the process of estimating (} by maximum likelihood.
The algorithm was fonnalized with many examples in Dempster, Laird, and Rubin (977),
though an earlier general form goes back to Baum, Petrie, Soules, and Weiss (1970). We
give a few examples of situations of the foregoing type in which it is used. and its main
properties. For detailed discussion we refer to Little and Rubin (1987) and MacLachlan
and Krishnan (1997). A prototypical example folIows.
Example 2.4.4. Lumped Hardy-Weinberg Data. As in Example 2.2.6, let Xi. i = 1, ... ,n,
be a sample from a population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium for a two-allele locus, Xi =
(EiI, E'2, Ei3), where Po[X = (1,0, a)] = B2, Po[X = (0, 1,0)] ~ 28(1 - B), Po[X
(0, 0, I)]= (1 - 0)2, a < 0 < I. What is observed, however, is not X but S where

5i Xi, 1 <i< m
(2.4.4)
5i (i1 +i2,i3), m+ 1 <i< n.
Evidently, S = S(X) where S(X) is given by (2.4.4). This could happen if, for some
individuals, the homozygotes of one type (il = 1) could not be distinguished from the
heterozygotes (i2 = 1). The log likelihood of S now is

1",(0) })2EiI 10gB + Ei210g2B(1 - B) + 2E'310g(1 - OJ]


i=l
n (2.4.5)
+ ~ [(EiI+Ei2)log(1-(1-0)')+2Ei310g(I-B)]
i=m+l

a function that is of curved exponential family fonn. It does tum out that in this simplest
case an explicit maximum likelihood solution is still possible, but the computation is clearly
not as simple as in the Original Hardy-Weinberg canonical exponential family example. If
we suppose (say) that observations 81, ... 1 8 m are not Xi but (il, i2 + i3), then explicit
solution is in general not lXJssible. Yet the EM algorithm, with an appropriate starting point,
leads us to an MLE if it exists in both cases. 0
Here is another important example.
134 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

Example 2.4.5. Mixture of Gaussians. Suppose 8 1 , ... ,Sn is a sample from a popu-
lation P whose density is modeled as a mixture of two Gaussian densities, p(s, B) =
(1-.\)"'u,(s-l'd +.\"'u,(s-I'z)where() = (.\,(I',,<T,),i = 1,2)andO <.\ < 1,
O't,0'2 > 0, J..ll, j..tz E Rand 'Pu (5) = ; i.p (~). It is not obvious that this falls under our
scheme but let
(2.4.6)

where A, are independent identically distributed with p() [A, = 11 = .\ = 1- p() [A, = 01.
Suppose that given ~ = (~11"" ~n), the Si are independent with

L()(Si I .4) = L()(Si I Ai) = N(Ail'l + (1- Ai)I'Z, A,<T; + (1 - A,)<T~).

That is, ~i tells us whether to sample from N(Jil,af) or N(J12,(f~). It is easy to see
(Problem 2.4.11), that under fJ, S has the marginal distribution given previously. Thus, we
can think of S as S(X) where X is given by (2.4.6).
This five-parameter model is very rich pennitting up to two modes and scales. The log
, likelihood similarly can have a number of local maxima and can tend to 00 as e tends to
I the boundary of the parameter space (Problem 2.4.12). Although MLEs do not exist in
these models, a local maximum close to the true 8 0 turns out to be a good "proxy" for the
nonexistent MLE. The EM algorithm can lead to such a local maximum. 0
The EM Algorithm. Here is the algorithm. Let
,, _ (P(X,B) )
, J(B I Bo) ~ E.o log p(X, Bo) I S(X) = s (2.4.7)
I
,
I, ,
, where we suppress dependence on s.
,I;
Initialize with Bold = Bo
,I:' ,
ii, Tbe first (E) step of the algorithm is to compute J(B I Bold) for as many values of Bas
needed. If this is difficul~ the EM algorithm is probably not suitable.
I'
The second (M) step is to maximize J(B I Bold) as a function of B. Again, if this step
is difficult, EM is not particularly appropriate.
Then we set Bnew = arg max J(B I Bold), reset Bold = Bnew and repeatthe process.
As we shall see in important situations, including the examples, we have given, the M
step is easy and the E step doable.
Hi
The rationale behind the algorithm lies in the following formulas, which we give for 8
real and which can be justified easily in the case that X is finite (Problem 2.4.12)

q(s,B) =E. (P(X,B) IS(X)=s) (2.4.8)


q(s,Bo) 0 p(X,Bo)
and ,

:B 10gq(s,B) = E. o (:B 10gp(X,B) I S(X) = s) (2.4.9) I


0=00 0=00

for all Bo (under suitable regularity conditions). Note that (2.4.9) follows from (2.4.8) by

taking logs in (2.4.8), differentiating and exchanging E oo and differentiation with respect i,

!
i
I
Section 2.4 Algorithmic Issues 135

to 0 at 00 , Because, formally,

DJ(O[)OI 00 ) ~ E '0 (~I


DO ogp(X , 0) I S(X) = 8 ) (2.4.10)

and, hence,
[)J(O I 00 )
(2.4.11)
DO
-
it follows that a fixed point 0 of the algorithm satisfies the likelihood equation,

D -
DO IOgq(8,0) = O. (2.4.12)

The main reason the algorithm behaves well follows.


Lemma 2.4.1.lfOnew, 00ld are as defined earlier and S(X) = s,
q(8, Onew) > q(s, 0old)' (2.4.13)

Equality holds in (2.4.13) iff the conditional distribution of X given S(X) =8 is the same
forOnew asfor 00ld and Onew maximizes J(O I 0old)'
Proof. We give the proof in the discrete case. However, the result holds whenever the
quantities in J(O I (0 ) can be defined in a reasonable fashion. In the discrete case we
appeal to the product rule. Fat x EX. S (x) ~ 8

p(x, 0) ~ q(s,O)r(x I 8,0) (2.4.14)

whete r( j ,0) is the conditional frequency function of X given S(X) = s. Then


q(s,O) { " ( X I 8,0) }
J(O I 00 ) ~ log q(s, 0 ) +E,o log ,.(X 18,0 ) I S(X) ~ 8 . (2.4.15)
0 0

If 00
= 0old' = Onew,
q(s,Onew) {r(X I 8 , O n e w ) }
log ( " ) ~ J(Onew I 0old) - E. Id log (X I ," ) I S(X) ~ 8 . (2.4.16)
q S, uold 0 r s, uold

Now. J(Onew I 0old) > J(Oold I 0old) = 0 by definition of Onew. On the other hand,

r(Xj8,Onew) }
-E'Old { log r(X I 8,00Id) I S(X) ~ s > 0 (2.4.17)

by Shannon's ineqnality, Lemma 2.2.1. o


The most important and revealing special case of this lemma follows.
Theorem 2.4.3. Suppose {Po : () E e} is a canonical exponential family generated by
(T,h) satisfying the conditions a/Theorem 2.3.1. Let SeX) be any statistic, then
Methods of Estimation Chapter 2
136

(a) The EM algorithm consists of the alternation

A(Bnew ) = Eoold(T(X) I S(X) = s) (2.4.18)

Bold = Bnew (2.4.19)

If a solution of(2.4.18) exists it is necessarily unique.


~

(b) lfthe sequence of iterates {B-m} so obtained is bounded and the equation

A(B) = Ee(T(X) I S(X) = s) (2.4.20)


~

has a unique solution, then it converges to a limit 0, which is necessarily a local maximum
o/q(s,B).
Proof. In this case,
J(B I Bo) = Eoo{(B - BO)TT(X) - (A(O) - A(Bo)) I S(X) = s} (2.4.21)
(B - Bof Eoo(T(X) I S(X) = y) - (A(O) - A(Bo))
I
I Part (a) follows.
Part (b) is more difficult. A proof due to Wu (I 983) is sketched in Problem 2.4.16. 0
Example 2.4.4 (continued). X is distributed according to the exponential family
I p(x,B) = exp(1)(2Ntn (x) + N'n(x)) - A('1)}h(x) (2.4.22)

where i
1) = log (1 ~ 0) , h(x) = 2N
,.(x), A(1)) = 2nlog(1 + e")

and N jn = L:~ t <ij(Xi), 1 <j < 3. Now, I,



I
A'(1)) = 2nB (2.4.23)
E e (2Ntn + N'n I S) = 2Nt= + N,= i
i,
+Eo ( t (2<" + <i') I <it + <i', m + 1 < i < n) . ,

i=m,+l
(2.4.24) I
Under the assumption that the process that causes lumping is independent of the values
!"
,I of the ij.
1'I,
1
Po I<ij = 1 I <it + <i' = OJ - 0,I<j<2
I 0' B'
Pol<it = 11 <it + <i' = 11 B' + 20(1 - B) 1 - (1 - 0)'
r!
1- Pol<i, = 11 <it +<" = IJ.
Ir
Thus, we see, after some simplification, that,
r:
(2.4.25)
I
I
I"

I ,
Section 2.4 Algoritnmic Issues 137

where
n
Mn ~ L ('iI + <,,).
i=tn+l
Thus, the EM iteration is
;; _ 2N1m + N 2m 2 Mn
unew - + ~ (2.4.26)
n 2 - Bold n

~
It may be shown directly (Problem 2.4.12) that if2Nl = + N,= > 0 and M n > 0, then
Bm, converges to the unique root of

B' - (2N3= + N 2=)B + 2 (N1= + (I - N 3 =)) =0


n n
in (0, I), which is indeed the MLE when S is observed. 0

Example 2.4,6. Let (Zl'yl), ... , (Zn,Yn) be i.i.d. as (Z, Y), where (Z, Y) ~ N (I"" 1""
at1 O'~, p). Suppose that some of the Zi and some of the Yi are missing as follows: For

1 < i < nl we observe both Zi and Yi, for nl + 1 < i < n2, we oberve only Zi, and for
n2 + 1 < i < n, we observe only Yi . In this case a set of sufficient statistics is
n n n

T 1 = Z, T 2 = Y, T3 = n-
l
L zl, T4 = n- l LY/, T 5 = n- l L ZiYi.
i=I i=l i=l

The observed data are

s = {(Z" Y;): 1 <i< nt} U {Z,: nl + 1 <i< n,} U {Y;: n, + 1 <i< n}.
To compute Eo (T I S = s). where B = (111, Jl2, ar,
a~, B), we note that for the cases with
Zi andlor Yi observed, the conditional expected values equal their observed values. For
other cases we use the properties of the bivariate nonna] distribution (Appendix BA and
Section 1.4), to conclude
b,,(Y, I Z,) 1"2 + P'Y2(Z, -I'l)/al
E.(y;2 I Z,) [1'2 + P'Y2(Z, -1"1)/ad 2 + (1 - p2)a~
E.(ZiY; I Zi) [1'2 + P'Y2(Z, -l"l)/al]Zi
with the corresponding Z on Y regression equations when conditioning on Yi (Problem
2.4.1). This completes the E-step. For the M-step, compute (Problem 2.4.1)

A( B) = E.T = (1"1, /L2, ai + I'i, a~ + ~, al a2P + 1"1/L2).


~ - ~

We take Bo~ = BMOM ' where BMOM is the method of moment estimates
(11" 112, iii, ii2 , r) (Problem 2.1.8) of B based on the observed data, and find (Problem
2.4.1) that the M-step produces
I1l,new T l (801 d), 112,new = T2 (8old)' iii, new = T 3 (8ol d) - T{
~ -2
ii~,new T4 (Bo1d ) - T 2 , (2.4.27)
hew [T5 (8ald) -i'tT2Ji{[T3 (8ol d) - Tl IlT4 (8ol d) - T2 ]}'
138 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

where T j (B) denotes T j with missing values replaced by the values computed in the E-
~ ~ ~

step and T j = Tj(B o1d )' j = 1,2. Now the process is repeated with BMOM replaced by
~

0new. 0
Because the E-step, in the context of Example 2.4.6, involves imputing missing values,
the EM algorithm is often called multiple imputation.
Remark 2.4.1. Note that if S(X) = X. then J(B i Bo) is log[p(X, B)/p(X,B o)]. which
as a function of () is maximized where the contrast -logp(X, 0) is minimized. Also note
that, in general, -E"IJ(O I 00)] is the Kullback-Leiblerdivergence (2.2.23).
Summary. The basic bisection algorithm for finding roots of monotone functions is devel-
oped and shown to yield a rapid way of computing the MLE in all one-parameter canonical !
exponential families with E open (when it exists). We then, in Section 2.4.2, use this
algorithm as a building block for the general coordinate ascent algorithm, which yields
with certainty the MLEs in k-parameter canonical exponential families with E open when
I
it exists. Important variants of and alternatives to this algorithm, including the Newton-
Raphson method, are discussed and introduced in Section 2.4.3 and the problems. Finally
in Section 2.4.4 we derive and discuss the important EM algorithm and its basic properties.

2.5 PROBLEMS AND COMPLEMENTS


Problems fnr Sectinn 2.1
1. Consider a population made up of three different types of individuals occurring in the
Hardy-Weinberg proportions 02, 2B(1 - 0) and (I - B)2, respectively, where 0 < B < 1.
(a) Show that T 3 = N1/n + N 2 /2n is a frequency substitution estimate of e.
(b) Using the estimate of (a), what is a frequency substitution estimate of the odds ratio
B/(l- B)?
,i' (c) Suppose X takes the values -1,0,1 with respective probabilities PI,P2,P3 given
I'
by the Hardy-Weinberg proportions. By considering the first moment of X, show that T 3
i.;
I is a method of moment estimate of ().
2. Consider n systems with failure times X I , ... , X n assumed to be independent and
identically distributed with exponential, &(>.), distributions.
(a) Find the method of moments estimate of >.. based on the first moment.
j,
,, (b) Find the method of moments estimate of>.. based on the second moment.
~'

". (c) Combine your answers to (a) and (b) to get a method of moment estimate of >.. based
On the first two moments.

j :
(d) Find the method of moments estimate of the probability P(X1 > I) that one system
will last at least a month.
3. Suppose that Li.d. X I, ... , X n have a beta, (3( 0'1,0'2) distribution. Find the method of
moments estimates of a = (0'1,0'2) based on the first two moments.
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 139

Hint: See Problem 8.2.5.


4. Let X I, ... , X 1l be the indicators of n Bernoulli trials with probability of success 8,
(a) Show that X is a method of moments estimate of 8.
(b) Exhibit method of moments estimates for VaroX = 8(1 - 8)ln first using only the
first moment and then using only the second moment of the population. Show that these
estimates coincide.
(c) Argue that in this case all frequency substitution estimates of q(8) must agree with
q(X).
5. Let Xl, ... ,Xn be a sample from a population with distribution function F and fre-
~ ~

quency function or density p. The empirical distribution function F is defined by F(x) =


[No. of Xi < xl/n. If q(8) can be written in the fonn q(8) ~ s(F) for sOme function s of
~

F we define the empirical substitution principle estimate of q( 8) to be s( F).


(a) Show that in the finite discrete case, empirical substitution estimates coincides with
frequency substitution estimates. ~
Hint: Express F in terms of p and F in terms of

P
~()
X = No. of Xi =X.
n
~

(b) Show that in the continuous case X rv F means that X = Xi with probability lin.
(c) Show that the empirical substitution estimate of the jth moment J-Lj is the jth sample
~

moment J-Lj'
Hinr: Write mj ~ f== xjdF(x) ormj = Ep(Xj) where X-F.
~ ~

(d) FortI < ... <


tk,findthejointfrequencyfunctionofF(tl), ... ,F(tk).
Hint: Consi~r (N I , ... , Nk+I) where N I ~ nF(t l ), N 2 = n(F(t2J - F(t,)), ... ,
Nk+1 = n(l - F(tk)).
6. Let X(l) < .,. < X(n) be the order statistics of a sample Xl, ... , X n . (See Problem
B.2.8.) There is a One-to-one correspondence between the empirical distribution function
~
F and the order statistics in the sense that, given the order statistics we may construct F
~
-
and given P, we know the order statistics. Give the details of this correspondence.
7. The jth cumulant '0' of the empirical distribution function is called the jth sample
cumulanr and is a method of moments estimate of the cumulant Cj' Give the first three
sample cumulants. See A.12.
8. Let (ZI, YI ), (Z2, Y2 ), ... , (Zn, Yn ) be a set of independent and identically distributed
random vectors with common distribution function F. The natural estimate of F(s, t) is
~

the bivariate empirical distribution function FCs, t), which we define by

Number of vectors (Zi, Yi) such that Zi < sand Yi < t


F
~(
s,t
) =
.
n
140 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(a) Show that F(-,.) is the distribution function of a probability P on R2 assigning


mass lin to each point (Zi, Vi).
(b) Define the sample product moment of order (i, j), the sample covariance, the sam-
~

pIe correlation, and so on, as the corresponding characteristics of the distribution F. Show
that the sample product moment of order (i,j) is given by

The sample covariance is given by

l
n
-Z)(Yk - Y)- = 1",
n
--
-
n L (Zk -
k=l
- L."ZkYk - ZY,
n
k=l

where Z, Y are the sample means of the Z11 .. , Zn and Y11 .. ,Yn , respectively. The
,'
sample correlation coefficient is given by

All of these quantities are natural estimates of the corresponding population characteristics
and are also called method of moments estimates. (See Problem 2.1.17.) Note that it
follows from (A.IU9) that -1 < T < L

, . 9. Suppose X = (X"", ,Xn ) where the X, are independent N"(O, ,,2),

....
, (a) Find an estimate of a 2 based on the second mOment.
" (b) Construct an estimate of a using the estimate of part (a) and the equation a = #.
,
(c) Use the empirical substitution principle to COnstruct an estimate of cr using the
relation E(IX, I) = ".,j2;,
10. In Example 2, L I, suppose that g({3, z) is continuous in {3 and that Ig({3, z) I tends to ,,

00 as \,81 tends to 00. Show that the least squares estimate exists.
Hint: Set c = p(X, 0). There exists a compact set K such that for f3 in the complement
,i
:
of K. p(X, {3) > c, Since p(X, {3) is continuous on K, the result follows,
J
11. In Example 2,1.2 with X ~ f(a, >.), find the method of moments estimate based on
iiI and /is,
Hint: See Problem B.2.4.
i
12. Let X".", X n be LLd, as X ~ P(J, (J E ec R d, with (J identifiable, Suppose X
has possible values VI, ... , Vk and that q(9) can be written as

q(J) = h(!'I(J)"" ,!'r(J)) I,


,,,

I
,
Section 2.5 Problems and Com",p:::',:::m:::,:::nt:::' ~__ 141

for some R k -valued function h. Show that the method of moments estimate q = h(j1!, ... ,
fir) can be written as a frequency plug-in estimate.
13. General method of moment estimates(!). Suppose X 1, ... , X n are i.i.d. as X rv P(J,
with (J E ec
R d and (J identifiable. Let 911 ... ,9r be given linearly independent functions
and write
n
Pi(O) = EO(gj(X)), Iii = n- l Lgj(Xi ), j = 1, ... , r.
i=l

Suppose that X has possible values VI, ... , Vk and that

q(O) = h(PI(O), ... ,Pr(O))


for some Rk-valued function h.
(a) Show that the method of moments estimate if = h(fill ... ,ilr) is a frequency plug-
in estimate.
(b) Suppose {PO: 0 E 8} is the k-parameter exponential family given by (1.6.10).
Let g,(X) ~ Tj(X), 1 < j < k. In the fOllowing cases, find the method of moments
estimates

(i) Beta, 1'(1,0)

(ii) Beta, 1'(0,1)

(iii) Raleigh,p(x,O) ~ (x/O')exp(-x'/20'),x > 0.0 > 0


(iv) Gamma, rep, 0), p fixed

(v) Inverse Gaussian, IG(p, A), 0 ~ (p, A). See Problem 1.6.36.

Hint: Use Corollary 1.6.1.


14. When the data are not i.i.d. it may still be possible to express parameters as functions
of moments and then use estimates based on replacing population moments with "sample"
moments. Consider the Gaussian AR(I) model of Example 1.1.5.
(a) Use E(X;) to give a method of moments estimate of p.
(b) Suppose P ~ po and I' = b are fixed. Use E(U[), where

1/'
U, ~ (X, - Po) / ,

to give a method of moments estimate of (72.

(c) If J.l and (72 are fixed, can you give a method of moments estimate of {3?
142 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

15. Hardy-Weinberg with six genotypes. In a large natural population of plants (Mimulus
guttatus) there are three possible alleles S, I, and F at one locus resulting in six genotypes
labeled SS, II, FF, SI, SF, and IF. Let 8" 8" and 83 denote the probabilities of S, I,
and F, respectively, where L7=1
OJ = 1. The Hardy-Weinberg model specifies that the
six genotypes have probabilities

Genotype I 2 3 4 5 6
Genotype SS II FF SI SF IF
Probability 8t 8~ 8j 28,8, 28, 83 28,83

Let N j be the number of plants of genotype j in a sample of n independent plants, 1 <j <
6 and let Pl ~ N j / n. Show that !
i
-- 1....... 1--
PI + '2P4 + 2PS
....... 1-- 1---
P2 + "2P4 + '2P6
....... 1 ....... I .......
P3 + "2PS + '2P6
,
I,
are frequency plug-in estimates of OJ, ()2, and (J3.

I 16, Establish (2.1.6).


Hint: [y, - g(I3,z;)] = [Y; - g(l3o,z;)] + [g(l3o,z;) - g(I3,z.)].
;,.,

17. Multivariate method a/moments. For a vector X = (Xl, .. ' l X q ). of observations, let
the moments be

mjkrs = E(XtX~), j > 0, k > 0; 1", S = 1, ... 1 q.

For independent identically distributed Xi = (XiI,"" X iq ), i = 1, ... , n, we define the


empirical or sample moment to be
n
~
mjkrs - - L..J ir is' J. >,
- 1 " X j Xk Q k>
_ Q.,1",S -1
- , ... ,q.
n.
t=1

liB = (0 1 , . Om) can be expressed as a function of the moments, the method of moments
l

estimate 8 of B is obtained by replacing mjkrs by mjkrs. Let X = (Z, Y) and B =


(ai, b, ), where (Z, Y) and (ai, bI) are as in Theorem 1.4.3. Show that method of moments
estimators of the parameters b1 and al in the best linear predictor are
-1 --
~ L:Z;Y;-ZY ~
n - ~-
b, = n 1 L:Z; _ (Z)' ' a, = Y - bIZ.

Problems for Sectinn 2.2


1. An Object of unit mass is placed in a force field of unknown constant intensity 8. Read-
ings Y1 , .. l Yn are taken at times t 1, ... , t n on the position of the object. The reading Yi

,
I
I

I
.! . - _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 143

differs from the true position (8 /2)tt by a mndom error f l - We suppose the ICi to have mean
oand be uncorrelated with constant variance. Find the LSE of 8.
2. Show that the fonnulae of Example 2.2.2 may be derived from Theorem 1.4.3, if we con-
sider the distribution assigning mass l/n to each of the points
(zJ,y,), ... ,(zn,Yn).
3. Suppose that observations YI , ... , Yn have been taken at times Zl, ... , Zn and that the
linear regression model holds. A new observation Yn-l- I is to be taken at time Zn+l. What
is the least squares estimate based on YI , ... , Y;t of the best (MSPE) predictor of Yn + I ?
4. Show that the two sample regression lines coincide (when the axes are interchanged) if
and only if the points (Zi,Yi), i = 1, ... ,n, in fact, all lie on aline.
Hint: Write the lines in the fonn

(z-.<) ~(y-j})
~ .. ~p ~ .
" 7

5. The regression line minimizes the sum of the squared vertical distances from the points
(Zl, Yl), ... , (zn, Yn). Find the line that minimizes the sum of the squared perpendicular
distance to the same points.
Hint: The quantity to be minimized is

I:7-J (y, - BJ - B,z,)'


1+ B5
6. (a) Let Y I , .. . , Yn be independent random variables with equal variances such that
E(Yi) = O:Zj where the Zj are known constants. Find the least squares estimate of 0:.
(b) Relate your answer to the fonnula for the best zero intercept linear predictor of
Section 1.4.
7. Show that the least squares estimate is always defined and satisfies the equations (2.1.5)
provided that 9 is differentiable with respect to (3" 1 < i < d, the range {g(zr, 13), ... ,
g(zn, 13),13 E R d } is closed, and 13 ranges over R d
8. Find the least squares estimates for the model Yi = 8 1 + 82 z i + i with ICi a~ given by
(2.2.4)-(2.2.6) under the restrictions BJ > 0, B, < O.
9. Suppose Yi = 81 + ICi, i = 1, ... , nl and Yi = 82 + ICi. i = nl + 1, .. _, nl + n2. where
ICl"." nl-l-n2 are independent N(O, (J2) variables. Find the least squares estimates of ()l
and B2 .

10. Let X I, ... , X n denote a sample from a population with one of the following densities
Or frequency functions. Find the MLE of 8.

(a) f(x, B) = Be-'x, x > 0; B > O. (exponential density)


(b) f(x, B) = Bc'x-('+JJ, x > c; c cOnstant> 0; B > O. (Pareto density)
144 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(c) f(", 0) = cO".r-(c+<),:r > 0; c constant> 0; 0 > O. (Pareto density)


(d) fix, 0) = VBXv'O-', 0 <x < I, 0> O. (beta, iJ( VB, I), density)
(e) fix, 0) = (x/0 2) exp{ _x 2/20 2 }, x> 0; 0 > O. (Rayleigh density)
(f) f(x, 0) = Ocx c -- l exp{ -OX C } , x > 0; c constant> 0; 0 > O. (Wei bull density)
11. Suppose that Xl, ... , X n n > 2, is a sample from a N(/l' ( 2 ) distribution.
(a) Show that if J1 and 0- 2 are unknown, J1 E R, (72 > 0, then the unique MLEs are
Ii = X and 8 2 ~ n- l L:~ 1 (Xi - X)"
(b) Suppose J.t and a 2 are both known to be nonnegative but otherwise unspecified.
Pi od maximum likelihood estimates of J1 and a 2 .
12. Let X I, ... , X n , n > 2, be independently and identically distributed with density
I
f(x,O) =- exp{ -(x - I")/O") , x > 1",
0"

where 0 ~ (1",0"2), -00 < I" < 00,0"2 > O.


(a) Find maximum likelihood estimates of J.t and a 2 .
(b) Find the maximum likelihood estimate of PelX l > tl for t > 1".
Hint: You may use Problem 2.2.16(b).
I
i' 13, Let X" ... , X n be a sample from a U[0 - !' !
0 + I distribution. Show that any T such
that X(n) - ! !
< T < X(1) + is a maximum likelihood estimate of O. (We write U[a, bl
to make pia) ~ p(b) = (b - a)-l rather than 0.)
14, If n ~ I in Example 2.1.5 show that no maximum likelihood estimate of e = (1",0"2)
exists.
-
15, Suppose that T(X) is sufficient for 0 and ~at O(X) is an MLE of O. Show that -e
depends on X through T(X) only provided that 0 is unique.
Hint: Use the factorization theorem (Theorem 1.5.1).
16. (a) Let X - Pe, 0 E e and let 0- denote the MLE of O.
Suppose that h is a one-to-
,
,
one function from e onto h(e). Define ry = h(8) and let f(x, ry) denote the density or ,
,II I
,
I :: I

-
frequency function of X in terms of T} (Le., reparametrize the model using 1]). Show that
the MLE of ry is h(O) (i.e., MLEs are unaffected by reparametrization, they are equivariant I
I
under one-to-one transformations).
I
", e}, e c
i
I;: (b) LetP = {PO: 0 E
Let q be a map from e onto n,
W.P > I, be a family of models for X E X C Rd.
-
ncR', I < k < p. Show that if 0 is a MLE of 0, then
q(9) is an MLE of w = q(O).
~
Hint: Let e(w) = {O E e : q(O) = w}, then {e(w) : wEn} is a partition of e, and
\
o belongs to only one member of this partition, say e(w). Because q is onto n, for each
wEn there is 0 E El such that w ~ q( 0). Thus, the MLE of w is by definition
WMLE = arg sup sup{Lx(O) : 0 E e(w)}.
WEn
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 145

Now show that WMLE ~ W ~ q(O).


17. Censored Geometric Waiting Times. If time is measured in discrete periods, a model
that is often used for the time X to failure of an item is

P,[X ~ k] ~ Bk - 1 (1 - B), k ~ 1,2, ...

where 0 < 0 < 1. Suppose that we only record the time of failure, if failure occurs on or
before time r and otherwise just note that the item has lived at least (r + 1) periods. Thus,
we observe YI , ... , Yn which are independent, identically distributed, and have commOn
frequency function,

f(k,B) =Bk - 1 (I_B), k=I, ... ,r

f(r + I,B) = 1- P,[X < r] ~ 1- LB k


-
1
(1_ B) = B'.
k=l

(We denote by "r + 1" survival for at least (r + 1) periods.) Let M = number of indices i
such that Y i = r + 1. Show that the maximum likelihood estimate of 0 based on Y1 , , , Y n
IS
_ ,," Y: - n
B(Y) = L..,~-1 ' .
Li~1 Y, - M
18. Derive maximum likelihood estimates in the following models.
(a) The observations are indicators of Bernoulli trials with probability of success 8. We
want to estimate B and Var,X I = B(I- B).
(b) The observations are Xl = the number of failures before the first success, X 2 =
the number of failures between the first and second successes, and so on, in a sequence of
binomial trials with probability of success fJ. We want to estimate O.
19. Let Xl, ... ,Xn be independently distributed with Xi having a N( Oi, 1) distribution,
1 <i < n.
(a) Find maximum likelihood estimates of the fJ i under the assumption that these quan-
tities vary freely.
(b) Solve the problem of part (a) for n = 2 when it is known that B1 < B,. A general
solution of this and related problems may be found in the book by Barlow, Bartholomew,
Bremner, and Brunk (1972).
20. In the "life testing" problem 1.6. 16(i), find the MLE of B.
21. (Kiefer-Wolfowitz) Suppose (Xl, ... , X n ) is a sample from a population with density

f(x, B) = 9
100' cp
(x -I') +
0'
1
10 cp(x -1')

where cp is the standard normal density and B = (1',0") E = {(I',O") : -00 < e
f-l. < 00, 0 < a 2 < oo}. Show that maximum likelihood estimates do not exist, but
146 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

that snp.,-p(x,ji,a 2 ) = Sllp~,up(X,J.t,0"2) if, and only if, Ii equals one of the numbers
Xl, ... ,x n . Assume that Xi =I=- Xj for i -=F j and that n > 2.

22. Suppose X has a hypergeometric, 1i(b, N, n), distribution. Show that the maximum
likelihood estimate of b for Nand n fixed is given by

if ~ (N + 1) is not an integer, and


~ X X
b(X) = -(N + 1) or -(N + 1)-1
n n
othetwise, where [t] is the largest integer that is < t.
Hint: Coosider the mtio L(b + 1, x)/ L(b, x) as a function of b.
23. Let Xl, ... ,Xm and YI , .. " Yn be two independent samples from N(J.tl,a 2 ) and
e
NU-", (1') populations, respectively. Show that the MLE of = (fl.I' fl.', (1') is If =
(X, Y, (1') where
n
ii' = L(Xi - X)' + L(Y; - Y)' /(rn + n).
i=1 j=1

24. Polynomial Regression. Suppose Y; = fl.(Zi) + 'i, where'i satisfy (2.2.4)-(2.2.6). Set

I
zl ~ zt'
.z!,' wherej E J andJisasubsetof {UI , ... ,jp): 0 <j.< J, 1 <k< p},
II and assume that
I
:'

In an experiment to study tool life (in minutes) of steel-cutting tools as a function of cut-
ting speed (in feet per minute) and feed rate (in thousands of an inch per revolution), the
i:
, following data were obtained (from S. Weisberg, 1985).
TABLE 2.6.1. Tool life data
Peed Speed Life Peed Speed Life
-1 -1 54.5 - 2 o 20.1

I -1
1
-1
-1
66.0
11.8
J2
o o
o 2.9
3.8
1 -1 14.0 o o 2.2
-1 1 5.2 o o 3.2
-1 1 3.0 o o 4.0 I,
1 1 0.8 o o 2.8 I
1 1 0.5 o o 3.2
o -J2 86.5 o o 4.0
o J2 0.4 o o 3.5

,
I'
I

I,
7
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 147

The researchers analyzed these data using

Y = log tool life, ZI ~ (feed rate - 13)/6, z, = (cutting speed - 900)/300.

Two models are contemplated

(a) Y ~ 130 + pIZI + p,z, + E


(b) Y = eto + O:IZl + 0:2Z2 + Q3Zi +- 0:4Z? + O:SZlZ2 + f-
Use a least squares computer package to compute estimates of the coefficients (f3's
and o:'s) in the two models. Use these estimated coefficients to compute the values of
the contrast function (2.1.5) for (a) and (b). Both of these models are approximations to
the true mechanism generating the data. Being larger, the second model provides a better
approximation. However, this has to be balanced against greater variability in the estimated
coefficients. This will be discussed in Volume II.
25. Consider the model (2.2.1), (2.2.4)-(2.2.6) with g({3, z) = zT {3. Show that the follow-
ing are equivalent.
(a) The parameterization f3 --t ZDf3 is identifiable.
(b) ZD is of rank d.

(c) Zj;ZD is of rank d.


26. Let (Z, Y) have joint probability P with joint density ! (z, y), let v(z, y) > 0 be a
weight funciton such that E(v(Z, Y)Z') and E(v(Z, Y)Y') are finite. The best linear
weighted mean squared prediction error predictor PI (P) + p,(P)Z of Y is defined as the
minimizer of

E{v(Z, Y)[Y - (b l + b,Z)]').

(a) Let (Z',Y') have density v(z,y)!(z,y)/c where c = I Iv(z,y)!(z,y)dzdy.


Show that p,(P) = Cov(Z', Y')/Var Z' and pI(P) = E(Y*) -11,(P)E(Z).
-
(b) Let P be the empirical probability
-...-...
defined in Problem 2.1.8 and let v(z,y)
~-..

l/Var(Y I Z = z). Show that (3,(P) and p,(P) coincide with PI and 13, of Example
2.2.3. That is, weighted least squares estimates are plug-in estimates.
27. Derive the weighted least squares nonnal equations (2.2.19).

28. Let Z D = I!zijllnxd be a design matrix and let W nXn be a known symmetric invertible
matrix. Consider the model Y = Z Df3 + where has covariance matrix (12 W, (12
unknown. Let W- l be a square root matrix of W- 1 (see (B.6.6)). Set Y = W-ly,
-, ,
ZD = W-z ZD and = W-Z.

(a) Show tha!.,Y = Z D{3+ satisfy the linear regression mooel (2.2.1), (2.2.4)-(2.2.6)
with g({3, z) ~ Z D{3.
148 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(b) Show that if Z D has rank d, then the f3 that minimizes


- - - - T 1
(Y - ZD,6)T(y - ZD,6) = (Y - ZD,6) W- (Y - ZD,6)

is given by (2.2.20).
29. Let ei = (i + {HI )/2, i = 1, ... , n, where El" .. ,n+l are i.i.d. with mean zero and
variance a 2 The ei are called moving average errors.
Consider the model Yi = 11 + ei, i = 1,. _', n.
(a) Show that E(1';+l I Y ... , 1';) ~ ~ (I' + 1';). That is, in this model the optimal
" 1 given the past YI , ... I Yi is (/1 + Vi).
MSPE predictor of the future Yi+ 4
(b) Show that Y is a multivariate method of moments estimate of p. (See Problem
2.1.17.)
(c) Find a matrix A such that enxl = Anx(n+l)ECn+l)xl'
(d) Find the covariance matrix W of e.
(e) Find the weighted least squares estimate of p.
\ '

I (f) The following data give the elapsed times YI , ... , Yn spent above a fixed high level
for a series of n = 66 consecutive wave records at a point on the seashore. Use a weighted
I
least squares c~mputer routine to compute the weighted least squares estimate Ii of /1. Is ji,
different from Y? I
TABLE 2.5.1. Elapsed times spent above a certain high level for a series
of 66 wave records taken at San Francisco Bay. The data (courtesy
S. J. Chon) shonld be read row by row.

2.968 2.097 1.611 3.038 7.921 5.476 9.858 1.397 0.155 1.301
9.054 1.958 4.058 3.918 2.019 3.689 3.081 4.229 4.669 2.274
1.971 10.379 3.391 2.093 6.053 4.196 2.788 4.511 7.300 5.856
0.860 2.093 0.703 1.182 4.114 2.075 2.834 3.968 6.480 2.360
5.249 5.100 4.131 0.020 1.071 4.455 3.676 2.666 5.457 1.046
1.908 3.064 5.392 8.393 0.916 9.665 5.564 3.599 2.723 2.870
1.582 5.453 4.091 3.716 6.156 2.039

30. In the multinomial Example 2.2.8, suppose some of the nj are zero. ~Show that the
~ ~

MLE of OJ is 0 with OJ = nj In, j = 1, ... , k.


Hint: Suppose without loss of generality that ni = n2 = ... = nq = 0, nq+1 >
0, ... ,nk > 0. Then
k
p(x, 0) = II 0;',
j=q+l

which vanishes if 8 j = 0 for any j = q + 1, ... , k.


31. Suppose YI , ... , Yn are independent with Yi unifonnly distributed on [/1i - a, /1i + a}.
<J > 0, where 1'; = L;~=l Z;jf3j for given covariate values {z;j}. Show that the MLE of
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 149

(f3I' ... ,{3p, a)T is obtained by finding 131, ... ,/3p that minimizes the maximum absolute
value conrrast function maxi IYi - tLil and then setting a = max t IYi - {:i,d, where Iii =
~

L:j:=1 ZtjPj
32. Suppose YI , ... , Yn are independent with Vi having the Laplace density
1
2"exp {-[Y;-I';I/a}, ,,>0
where tLi = :Ej=l Ztj{3j for given covariate values {Zij}.
~ ~

(a) Show that the MLE of ((31, ... , (3p, a) is obtained by finding (31, ... ,(3p that min-
imizes the least absolute deviation contrast function L~ I IYi - Ili I and then setting (j =
~ ~ ~

n~I L~ I IYi - Jitl, where Jii = L:J=l Zij{3j. These f3I, ... ,/Jr and iii, ... ,fin are called
least absolute deviation estimates (LADEs).
(b) If n is odd, the sample median fj is defined as Y(k) where k ~ ~(n + 1) and
Y(l), ... , Y( n) denotes YI , ... , Yn ordered from smallest to largest. If n is even, the sample
median yis defined as ~ [Y(,) + Y(r+l)] where r = ~n. (See (2.1.17).) Suppose 1'; = I' for
each i. Show that the sample median ii is the minimizer of L~ 1 IYi - J.l1.
~

Hint: Use Problem 1.4.7 with Y having the empirical distribution F.


33. The Hodges-Lehmann (location) estimate XHL is defined to be the median of the
~n(n + 1) pairwise averages ~(Xi + Xj), i < j. An asymptotically equivalent procedure
XHL is to take the median of the distribution placing mass i& at each point x';:C j
i <j
and mass ,& at each Xi.
(a) Show that the Hodges-Lehmann estimate is the minimizer of the contrast function

p(x,O) = L Ix; + Xj - 201


i<j
Hint: See Problem 2.2.32(b).
(b) Define BH L to be the minimizer of

J [x - 28Id(F. F)(x)

where F *F denotes convolution. Show that XHL is a plug-in estimate of BHL.


34. Let X; be i.i.d. as (Z, y)T where Y = Z + v"XW, A > 0, Z and W are independent
N(O, 1). Find the MLE of A and give its mean and variance.
Hint: See Example 1.6.3.
35. Let g(x) ~ 1/".(1 + x'j, x E R, be the Cauchy density, let Xl and X, be i.i.d. with
density g(x - 8), 8 E R. Let x, and x, be the observations and set II = ~ (Xl - x,). Let
-
B = arg max Lx (8) be "the" MLE.
(a) Show Ihat if Illi < 1, then the MLE exists and is unique. Give the MLE when
Ill[ < 1.

... "-
150 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(b) Show that if 1t>1 > 1, then the MLE is not unique. Find the values of B that
maximize the likelihood Lx(B) when 1t>1 > L
Hint: Factor out (x - f)) in the likelihood equation.

36. Problem 35 can be generalized as follows (Dhannadhikari and Joag-Dev, 1985). Let 9
be a probability density on R satisfying the following three conditions:
I. 9 is continuous, symmetric about 0, and positive everywhere.
2. 9 is twice continuously differentiable everywhere except perhaps at O.
3. If we write h = logg, then h"(y) > 0 for some nonzero y.
Let (XI, X,) be a random samplefrom the distribution with density f(x, B) = g(x-B).
where x E Rand (} E R. Let Xl and X2 be the observed values of Xl and X z and write
j; ~ (XI + x,)/2 and t> = (XI - x2)/2, The likelihood function is given by

Lx(B) g(xI - B)g(x, - B)


g(x + t> - B)g(i - t> - B).
~

Let B ~ arg max Lx (B) be "the" MLE.


Show that

(a) The likelihood is symmetric about x.


~ ~

(b) Either () = x or () is not unique.


(c) There is an interval (a, b), a < b, such that for every y E (a, b) there exists a 0 > 0
such that h(y + 0) - h(y) > h(y) - h(y - 0).
~

, (d) Use (c) to show that if t> E (a,b), then B is not unique.
Ii
37. Suppose X I, ... ,Xn are i.i.d. N(B, (7') and let p(x, B) denote their joint density. Show
that the entropy of p(x, B) is !n
and that the Kullback-Liebler divergence between p(x, B)
and pix, Bo) is tn( B- Bo)'/ (7'.

38. Let X ~ P" B E 8. Suppose h is a I-I function from 8 Onto n


= h(8). Define
ry = h(B) and let p' (x, ry) = p(x, h -I (ry) denote the density or frequency function of
Ii
X for the ry parametrization. Let K(Bo,B I ) (K'(ryo,ryt denote the Kullback-Leibler
,
'I
.
divergence between p( x, Bo) and p( X, BI ) (p' (x, ryo) and p' (x, ryl Show that
I,

,,.., 39. Let Xi denote the number of hits at a certain Web site on day i, i = 1, ... , n. Assume
,
that 5 = L:~ I Xi has a Poisson, P(nA). distribution. On day n + 1 the Web Master
,j', .
decides to keep track of two types of hits (money making and not money making), Let Vj
i and W j denote the number of hits of type 1 and 2 on day j. j = n + I, ... 1 n + m. Assume
'I
:1,
that 8 1 E;+~l Vi and 8 2 = E;+~l Wj have P(rnAl) and P(mA2) distributions,
=
where Al +..\2 = A. Also assume that S. Sl. and 8 2 are independent. Find the MLEs of I
Al and A2 hased on 5. 51. and 5,.
!
I!:

Ii- -
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 151

40. Let Xl, ... , X n be a sample from the generalized Laplace distribution with density
1
cxp{ -x/Oj}, x > 0,
Oj + 0,
1
o + 0, exp{x/O,},
1
x <0

where OJ > O,j ~ 1,2.


(,) Show that T, = LX,I[X, > OJ and T, = L -X,I[X, < 0] are sufficient
statistics.
(b) Find the maximum likelihood estimates of 81 and 82 in tenns of T 1 and T 2 Care-
fully check the "T1 = 0 or T 2 = 0" case.
41. The mean relative growth of an organism of size y at time t is sometimes modeled by
the equation (Richards, 1959; Seber and Wild, 1989)

Idy
Y dt ~ [3 1 - [ (Y)!]
a ' y > 0; a > 0, [3 > 0, 0 > O.

(a) Show that a solution to this equation is of the form y get; 0), where 0
(a, [3,1',0), I' E R, and
a
g(t,O) ~ {l+exp[-[3(t-J1.)/o]}"

(b) Suppose we have observations (t I , yd 1 , (tn, Yn), n > 4, on a population of a


large number of organisms. Variation in the population is modeled on the log scale by using
the model

logY; = log a - olog{1 + exp[-[3(t, - J1.)/o)} + C,


where El" . 1 En are uncorrelated with mean 0 and variance (72. Give the least squares
estimating equations (2.1.7) for estimating a, /3, 6, and /1.
(e) Let Yi denote the response of the ith organism in a sample and let Zij denote the
level of the jth covariate (stimulus) for the ith organism, i = 1, ... , n; j = 1, ... ,p. An
example of a neural net model is
p

Vi = L h(Zij; Aj) + Ei, i = 1, ... , n


j=l

where A = (a, [3, 1'), h(z; A) = g(z; a, [3, 1', 1); and fj, . . . ,c n are uncorrelated with mean
zero and variance (72. For the ca.~e p = 1, give the lea.~t square estimating equations (2,1.7)
for a, [3, and 1'.
42. Suppose Xl, ... 1 X n satisfy the autoregressive model of Example 1.1.5.
152 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(aJ If /' is known, show that the MLE of fi is

jj = - 2.::,-, (X,-l - ft)(Xi -/,)


L: 1
II(Z'i -/1-)2
(b) If j3 is known, find the covariance matrix W of the vector = (1,.'" n)T
of autoregression errors. (One way to do this is to find a matrix A such that enxl =
Anxnnx 1.) Then find the weighted least square estimate of f.J.,. Is this also the MLE of /1?

Problems for Section 2.3


1. Suppose Y I , ... , Yn are independent

PlY; = 1] = p(x"a,fi) = 1- pry; = OJ, 1 <i< n, n > 2,


p
log
I-p
(x, a, fi) = a + fix, Xl < ... < Xn

Show that the MLE of a. fi exists iff (Yl , ... , Yn) is not a sequence of 1's followed by all
O's or the reverse.
Hint:

I, n
Cl LYi + C, L x,y,
n n n
= L(CI + C,Xi)Y' < L(C1 + c,x,)I(c,x, + C1 > 0).
I
,
, i=l i=l i=1 i=l

If C2 > 0, the bound is sharp and is attained only if Yi = 0 for Xi < _I.
C2'
y'1 1 for
x.1 >
_
_l..
C2'

2. Let Xl, ... , X n be i.i.d. gamma. r(A,p).


(a) Show that the density of X = (Xl, ... , Xn)T can be written as the rank 2 canonical
exponential family generated by T = (ElogX"EXi ) and hex) = X-I with ryl = p,
'12 = -A and

where r denotes the gamma function.


(b) Show that the likelihood equations are equivalent to (2.3.4) and (2.3.5).
3. Consider the Hardy-Weinberg model with the six genotypes given in Problem 2.1.15.
e
Let = {(01,02): 01 > 0,0, > 0,0 , + 0, < I} and let 03 = 1- (8 , + 8,). In a sample
of n independent plants, write Xi = j if the ith plant has genotype j. I < j < 6. Under
what conditions on (Xl 1 . " l Xn) does the Mill exist? What is the MLE? Is it unique?
4. Give details of the proof or Corollary 2.3.l.
S. Prove Lenama 2.3.l.
Hint: Let C = 1(0). There exists a compact set K c e such that 1(8) < c for all () not
,.,;, in K. This set K will have a point where the max is attained.
t;

,
II
~;
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 153

6. In the heterogenous regression Example 1.6.10 with n > 3,0 < ZI < ... < Zn, show
that the MLE exists and is unique.
7. Let Y I , ... , Yn denote the duration times of n independent visits to a Web site. Suppose
Y has an exponential, [(Ai), distribution where

Iti = E(Y,) ~ Ail = exp{a + ilz;}, Zj < ... < Zn


and Zi is the income of the person whose duration time is ti, 0 < Zl < ... < Zn, n > 2.
Show that the MLE of (a,ill T exists and is unique. See also Problem 1.6.40.
8. Let XI,' .. ,Xn E RP be i.Ld. with density,

fe(x) ~ c(a) exp{ -Ix - en, e E RP, u > 1

wherec- 1 (a) ~ fR exp{-Ixlfr}dxand 11 is the Euclidean norm.


" ~

(a) Show that if Cl: > 1, the MLE 8 exists and is unique.

(b) Show that if a = 1, the MLE 8 exists but is not unique if n is even.

9. Show that the boundary ac


of a convex C set in Rk has volume 0.
Hint: If BC has positive volume, then it must contain a sphere and the center of the
sphere is an interior point by (B.9.1).
10. Use Corollary 2.3.1 to show that in the multinomial Example 2.3.3, MLEs of ryj exist
iffallTj > 0, 1 <j< k-1.
Hint: The kpoints (0, .. _,0), (O,n,O, ... ,0), ... , (0,0, ... ,n) are the vertices of the
convex set {(Ij, ... ,lk-Il :Ij >0,1 <j < k-1,z=7
:Ij <n}.

11. Prove Theorem 2.3.3.


Hint: If it didn't there would exist ryj = c(9j ) such that ryJ 10 - A( ryj) ~ max{ 'IT to-
A( 'I) : 'I E c(8)} > -00. Then {'Ij} has a subsequence that converges to a point '10 E f.
But c( e) is closed so that '10 = c( eO) and eO must satisfy the likelihood equations.

12. Let Xl, ... , X n be Ll.d. ~fo (X u I.t), C! > 0, J.l E R, and assume forw -logfo that
wll > 0 so that w is strictly convex, w( oo) = 00.
(3) Show that, if n > 2, the likelihood equations

t (X It)
t=I
w' iOJ- = 0

~ { (X i ;- It) w' ( Xi It) - 1} 0


OJ- =

-'~ve a unique solution (,fl,8) .

(b) Give an algorithm such that starting at iP = 0, 0:0 = 1, ji(i) --+ ji, a(i) --+ a.
154 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(c) Show that for the logistic distribution Fo(x) [1 + exp{ -X}]-I, W is strictly
convex and give the likelihood equations for f.l and CT. (See Example 2.4.3.)
Hint: (a) Thefunction D( a, b) ~ L:;
I w( aXi - b) - n log a is strictly convex in (a, b)
and lim(a,b)_(ao,bo) D(a, b) = x if either ao = 0 or 00 or bo = oo.
(b) Reparametrize by a = ;. b = : and consider varying a, b successively.
Note: You may use without proof (see Appendix B.9).

(i) If a strictly convex function has a minimum, it is unique.

2 2 2
(I't') IfEPD
8a2 a D > 0 an d
> 0, 7if)F 880208vb2D > (a'D)2
8aob . Iy convex.
' then D'IS strict

:1 13. Let (X10 Yd, ... , (Xn , Yn ) be a sample from a N(/11, {t2, ar 1 a~, p) population.
(a) Show that the MLEs of a'f, ag, and p when J1,1 and J1,2 are assumed to be known are
"i = (lin) L:; I (Xi - J1.1)", ,,:; = (lin) L:; ,(Yi - J1.2)2, and

,
p = [~(Xi - J1.,)(Yi - J1.2)/M'''2]
iI
I', respectively, provided that n > 3.
(b) If n > 5 and J1-1 and /12 are unknown, show that the estimates of J1-1, J1-2, O'?, O'~, P
coincide with the method of moments estimates of Problem 2.1.8.
Hint: (b) Because (XI, Y,) has a density you may assume that 0'1
> 0, ,,:; > 0, IPl < 1.
Apply Corollary 2.3.2.

Problems for Section 2.4


1. EM for bivariate data.
il'
i,' (a) In the bivariate nonnal Example 2.4.6, complete the E-step by finding E(Zi I Yi),
! E(Zl I l'i) and E(ZiYi I Yd
(b) In Example 2.4.6, verify the M-step by showing that

EeT = (J1-1, /12, O'~ + J1-i, O'~ + J1-~, pal0'2 + J1-1J..'2).


2. Show that if T is minimal and t: is open and the MLE doesn't exist, then the coordinate
ascent algorithm doesn't converge to a member of t:.
3. Describe in detail what the coordinate ascent algorithm does in estimation of the regres-
i: sion coefficients in the Gaussian linear model

y ~ ZDJ3 + <, rank(ZD) = k, E" ... , En i.i.d. N(O, ,,2).

(Check that you are describing the Gauss-Seidel iterative method for solving a system of
~J
,' linear equations. See, for example, Golnb and Van Loan, 1985, Chapter 10.)

I
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 155

4. Let (Ii, Y'i), 1 < i < n, be independent and identically distributed according to P6,
B= (A, 1') E (0,1) x Rwhere

P,[lt ~ 1] = A ~ 1 - P,[lt ~ OJ,

and given II = j. Y1 '" N(fLl a}). j = 0, 1 and afi I a? known.


(a) Show that X - {(Ii, Yd : 1 < i < n} is distributed according to an exponential
family with T = (uJ L }iIi + -k 2: Y,(I- Ii), 2:Ji) ,
i ryl ~ 1', ~2 = log C\) +
i(1uz--uy.
2
I)
(b) Deduce that T is minimal sufficient.

(c) Give explicitly the maximum likelihood estimates of J-t and >.., when they exist.
5. Suppose the Ii in Problem 4 are not observed.
(a) Justify the following crude estimates of J-t and A,

I' Y
A (~ 2:7 I(Yi - Y)' - O"~)/ (0";- O"~).
-
Do you see any problems with >..?
(b) Give as explicitly as possible the E- and M-steps of the EM algorithm for this
problem.
Hint: Use Bayes rule.
6. Consider a genetic trait that is directly unobservable but will cause a disease among a
certain proportion of the individuals that have it. For families in which one member has
the disease, it is desired to estimate the proportion 8 that has the genetic trait. Suppose that
in a family of n members in which one has the disease (and, thus, also the trait), X is the
number of members who have the trait. Because it is known that X > 1, the model often
used for X is that it has the conditional distribution of a B( n, B) variable, B E [0, 1], given
X>l.

I n ) 8"(1-0)"-"
\ X )
(a) Show that P(X = x IX > 1) = 1 (1 6)" ,x = 1, ... ,n, and that the
MLE exists and is unique.

(b) Use (2.4.3) to show that the Newton-Raphson algorithm gives

8~1 ~
_ 8- _ _ B(I- B)[I- (1 _- B)n]{x -nB - _x(1- B)n} _ _,
nB'(I- B)n[n - I + (1 - B)n] - [1 - (1 - B)"]'[(1 - 2B)x + nB']
~ ~ ~

where 8 = 80l d and 8 1 8new , as the first approximation to the maximum likelihood
estimate of 8.
156 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

(c) [f n = 5, X = 2, find - -
(}l of (b) above using (} = x/n as a preliminary estimate.
7. Consider the following algorithm under the conditions of Theorem 2.4.2. Define TjD as
before. Let

and

iJnew = iJ(A')
where ). * maximizes

t;riJ(A) - A(iJ(A)).
Show that the sequence defined by this algorithm converges to the MLE if it exists.
Hint: Apply the argument of the proof of Theorem 2.4.2 noting that the sequence of
iterates {rymJ is bounded and, hence, the sequence (11ml ijm+l) has a convergent subse-
quence.
8. Let Xl,X 2 ,X3 be independent observations from the Cauchy distribution about e,
f(x,9) = ".-1 (1 + (x - 9)')-1 Suppose X, ~ 0, X, = 1, X 3 = a. Show that for a
sufficiently large the likelihood function has local maxima between 0 and 1 and between p
and a.
(a) Deduce that depending on where bisection is started the sequence of iterates may
converge to one or the other of the local maxima
(b) Make a similar study of the Newton-Raphson method in this case.
9. Let Xl, ... , X n be i.i.d. where X = (U, V, W), PIU = a, V = b, W = c] = Pabe,
1 < a < A, 1 < b < B, 1 <c < C and La,b,c Pabc = l.
(a) Suppose for aU a, b1 C.
(1) 10gPabc = /-lac + Vbc where -00 < /-l, v < 00.
Show that this holds iff

PIU ~ a,v ~ b I W = c] = P[U = a I W = c]P[V = b I W ~ c]'


i.e. iff U and V are independent given W.
(h) Show that the family of distributions obtained by letting 1', v vary freely is an ex-
ponential family of rank (C - 1) + C(A + B-2) = C(A + B-1) - 1 generated by
N++c,Na+c,N+bc where N abc = #{i : Xi = (a,b,c)} and "+" indicates summation
over the ind~x.
(c) Show that the MLEs exist iff 0 < N a+c , N +bc < N ++c for all a, b1 c and then are
given by
. -. . N++ c N a +c N+ bc
Pabc = . N .
n N++ c ++c

-
Section 2.5 Problems and Complements 157

Hint:
(b) Consider N a+ c - N++c/A, Nbc - N++ c / B, Nl+co
(c) The model implies Pabc = P+bcPac/P++c and use the likelihood equations.
10. Suppose X is as in Problem 9, but now
(2) logPabc = /lac + Vbc + 'Yab where J1, v, f vary freely.
(a) Show that this is an exponential family of rank

A + B + C - 3 + (A - I)(C - I) + (B - I)(C - 1) + (A - 1)(B - I)


~ AB + AC + BC - (A + B + C).

(b) Consider the following "proportional fitting" algorithm for finding the maximum
likelihood estimate in this model.
Initialize: pd: O) = N a ++ N_jo/>+ N++ c
abc nnn

dO)
dl) Nab+ Pabc
Pabc n dO)
Pab+
d1)
d2) N a + c Pabc
Pabc n dl)
Pa+c
d 2)
d3) N+bc Pabc
Pabc n d2)
P+bc

Reinitialize with ~t~. Show that the algorithm converges to the MLE if it exists and di
verges otheIWise.
Hint: Note that because {p~~~} belongs to the model so do all subsequent iterates and
that ~~~ is the MLE for the exponential family

ell-auplO)
_=;:---,c,a>!b",,=-_
Pabc =
L ell-alblp~~~'CI
a',b',c'

obtained by fixing the "b, c" and "a, c" parameters.


11. (a) Show that S in Example 2.4.5 has the specified mixtnre of Gaussian distribution.
(b) Give explicitly the E- and M-steps of the EM algorithm in this case.

12. Justify formula (2.4.8).


Hint: P,,[X = x I SeX) = s] = :1:::: 1(S(x) = s).
13. Let f,(x) = fo(x - 9) where
1 2
fo(x) ~ 3'P(x) + 3'P(x - a)
158 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

and r..p is the N(O} '1) density. Show for 11 = 1 that bisection may lead to a local maximum
of the likelihood, if a is sufficiently large.
14. Establish the last claim in part (2) of the proof of Theorem 2.4.2.
Hint: Use the canonical nature of the family and openness of E.
15. Verify the fonnula given in Example 2.4.3 for the actual MLE in that example.
Hint: Show that {( 8m , Bm + I)} has a subsequence converging to (B* , (J*) and necessar-
~

ily g- ~ go.
16. Establish part (b) of Theorem 2.4.3.
Hint: Show that {(19 m, Bm+d} has a subsequence converging to (0" JJ*) and, thus,
necessarily 0* is the global maximizer.
17. Limitations a/the EM Algorithm. The assumption underlying the computations in the
EM algorithm is that the conditional probability that a component X j of the data vector
X is missing given the rest of the data vector is not a function of X j . That is, given
X - {Xj }, the process determining whether X j is missing is independent of X j . This
condition is called missing at random. For example, in Example 2.4.6, the probability that
Vi is missing may depend on Zi, but not on Yi. That is, given Zi, the "missingness" of Vi is
independent of Yi. If Vi represents the seriousness of a disease, this assumption may not be
Ii satisfied. For instance, suppose all subjects with Yi > 2 drop out of the study. Then using
,
, the E-step to impute values for the missing Y's would greatly unclerpredict the actual V's
!
because all the V's in the imputation would have Y < 2. In Example 2.4.6, suppose Yi
is missing iff Vi < 2. If /12 = 1.5, al = a2 = 1 and p = 0.5, find the probability that
E(Y; I Z;) underpredicts Y;.
, 18. EM and Regression. For X = {(Zil Yi) :i = 1, ... ,n}, consider the model
I
I Yi = J31 + J32 Z i + Ei
I where E) , ... , En a an
are i.i.d. N(O, 2 ), Zl," . , Zn are ii.d. N(f-tl, and independent of
I: El,"" En. Suppose that for 1 < i < m we observe both Zi and Yi and for m + 1 < i < n,
! we observe only}li. Complete the E- and M-steps of the EM algorithm for estimating
I
(f-tl, {31 1 a~, a 2 , {32).

2.6 NOTES
,, Noles for Section 2.1
,
(1) "Natural" now was not so natural in the eighteenth century when the least squares prin-
ciple was introduced by Legendre and Gauss. For a fascinating account of the beginnings

of estimation in the context of astronomy see Stigler (1986).
, (2) The frequency plug-in estimates are sometimes called Fisher consistent. R. A. Fisher I
(1922) argued that only estimates possessing the substitution property should be considered
and the best of these selected. These considerations lead essentially to maximum likelihood
estimates.
I'
,
.,

~
Section 2.7 References 159

Notes for Section 2.2


(I) An excellent historical account of the development of least squares methods may be
found in Eisenhart (1964).
(2) For further properties of Kullback-Leibler divergence, see Cover and Thomas (1991).

Note for Section 2.3


(I) Recall that in an exponential family, for any A, P[T(X) E Al o for all or for no
PEP.

Note for Section 2.5


(1) In the econometrics literature (e.g. Appendix A.2; Campbell, La, and MacKinlay,
1997), a multivariate version of minimum contrasts estimates are often called generalized
method of moment estimates.

2.7 REFERENCES
BARLOW, R. E., 0.1. BARTHOLOMEW, 1. M. BREMNER, ANOH. D. BRUNK, Statistical Inference Under
Order Restrictions New York: Wiley, 1972.
BAUM, L. E., T. PETRIE, G. SOULES, AND N. WEISS, "A Maximization Technique Occurring in the
Statistical Analysis of Probabilistic Functions of Markov Chains:' Am!. Math. Statist., 41, 164-
171 (1970).
BISHOP, "Y. M. M., S. E. FEINBERG, AND P. W. HOLLAND, Discrete Multivariate Analysis: Theory and
Practice Cambridge. MA: MIT Press, 1975.
CAMPBELL, J. "Y., A. W. La, AND A. C. MACKINLAY, The Econometrics ofFinancial Markets Prince-
ton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997.
COVER, T. M., AND J. A. THOMAS, Elements oflnfonnation Theory New York: Wiley, 1991.
DAHLQUIST, G., A. BJORK, AND N. ANDERSON, Numerical Analysis New York: Prentice Hall, 1974.
DEMPSTER, A., M. M. LAIRD, AND D. B. RUBIN, "Maximum Likelihood Estimation from Incomplete
Data via the EM Algorithm," J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B, 1-38 (1977).
DHARMADHlKARI, S., AND K.loAG-DEV, "Examples of Nonunique Maximum Likelihood Estima-
tors," The American Statistician, 39, 199-200 (1985).
EiSENHART, c., "The Meaning of Least in Least Squares," Journal Wash. Acad. Sciences, 54, 24-33
(1964).
FAN, J. AND I. GIlBELS, Local Polynomial Modelling and Its Applications London: Chapman and
Hall, t 996.
FISHER, R. A., "On the Mathematical Foundations of Theoretical Statistics," reprinted in Contribu-
tions to MatheltUltical Statistics (by R. A. Fisher 1950) New York: J. Wiley and Sons, 1922.
GoLUB, G. H., AND C. F. VAN LOAN, Matrix Computations Baltimore: John Hopkins University
Press, 1985.
HABERMAN, S. J., The Analysis ofFrequency Data Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1974.
160 Methods of Estimation Chapter 2

KOLMOGOROV, A. N.. "On the Shannon Theory of Information Transmission in the Case of Contin-
uous Signals,"/RE Trans! Inform. Theory, In. 102-108 (1956).
LIlTLE, R. J. A., AND D. B. RUBIN, Statistical Anal.,,sis with Missing Data New York: J. Wiley, 1987.
MACLACHLAN, G. J., AND T. KR[SHNAN, The EM Algorithm and Extensions New York: Wiley. 1997.

MOSTELLER, E, "Association and Estimation in Contingency Tables," 1. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 63,
1-28 (1968).
RICHARDS, F. J., "A Flexible Growth Function for Empirical Use," J. Exp. Botany, 10, 290-300
( 1959).
RUPPERT, D., AND M. P. WAND, "Multivariate Locally Weighted Least Squares Regression," Ann.
Statisr.. 22, 1346-1370 (1994).
SEBER, G. A. E, AND c.1. WILD, Nonlinear Regression New York: Wiley, 1989.
SHANNON, C. E., "A Mathematical Theory of Communication," Bell System Tech. Journal, 27,379-
243,623-656 (1948).
i
SNEDECOR, G. W., AND W. COCHRAN, Statistical Methods, 6th ed. Ames, IA: Iowa State University
Press, 1%7.
STIGLER, S., The History ofStatistics Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1986.
WEISBERG, S., Applied linear Regression, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley, 1985.
I
I., WU, C. F. J., "On the Convergence Properties of the EM Algorithm," Ann. Statist., 11,95-103 (1983) .

1
,
,

I
Chapter 3

MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE,
NOTIONS OF OPTIMALITY, AND
OPTIMAL PROCEDURES

3.1 INTRODUCTION
Here we develop the theme of Section 1.3, which is how to appraise and select among de-
cision procedures. In Sections 3.2 and 3.3 we show how the important Bayes and minimax
criteria can in principle be implemented. However, actual implementation is limited. OUf
examples are primarily estimation of a real parameter. In Section 3.4, we study, in the
context of estimation, the relation of the two major decision theoretic principles to the 000-
decision theoretic principle of maximum likelihood and the somewhat out of favor principle
of unbiasedness. We also discuss other desiderata that strongly compete with decision the-
oretic optimality, in particular computational simplicity and robustness. We return to these
themes in Chapter 6, after similarly discussing testing and confidence bounds, in Chapter 4
and developing in Chapters 5 and 6 the asymptotic tools needed to say something about the
multiparameter case.

3.2 BAYES PROCEDURES


Recall from Section 1.3 that if we specify a parametric model P = {Po:
E 8}, ac-
tion space A, loss function l(O,a), then for data X '" Po and any decision procedure J
randomized or not we can define its risk function, R(, 6) : e ---.-+ R+ by

R(O,6) = E o{(O,6(X).
We think of R(-, 6) as measuring a priori the performance of 6 for this model. Strict com-
parison of 6, and 62 on the basis of the risks alone is not well defined unless R(O,6 , ) <
R(B, 6 2 ) for all 0 or vice versa. However, by introducing a Bayes prior density (say) 1r for
o comparison becomes unambiguous by considering the scalar Bayes risk,

r(1T,6) =ER(O,6) = EI(6,6(X)), (3.2.1)

161
162 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

where (0, X) is given the joint distribution specified by (1.2.3). Recall also that we can
define
R(,,) ~ inf{r(",6): 6 E VJ (3.2.2)
the Bayes risk of the problem, and that in Section 1.3 we showed how in an example, we
could identify the Bayes rules 0; such that
(3.2.3)
In this section we shall show systematically how to construct Bayes rules. This exercise is
interesting and important even if we do not view 1r as reflecting an implicitly believed in
prior distribution on (). After all. if 1[' is a density and e c R

r(",6) = JR(0,6),,(O)dO (3.2.4)

and 1r may express that we care more about the values of the risk in some rather than other
regions of e. For testing problems the hypothesis is often treated as more important than
the alternative. We may have vague prior notions such as "IBI > 5 is physically implausi-
ble" if, for instance, B denotes mean height of people in meters. If 1r is then thought of as a
weight function roughly reflecting our knowledge, it is plausible that 6; if computable will
behave reasonably even if our knowledge is only roughly right. Clearly, ,,(0) = c plays
a special role ("equal weight") though (Problem 3.2.4) the parametrization plays a crucial
role here. It is in fact clear that prior and loss function cannot be separated out clearly either.
Thus, considering I, (0, 0) and "I (0) is equivalent to considering 12(0, oj = ",(0)1 , (0, 0)
and 1T2(0) = 1. Issues such as these and many others are taken up in the fundamental
!j , I
treatises on Bayesian statistics such as Jeffreys (1948) and Savage (1954) and are reviewed
1': in the modern works of Berger (1985) and Bernardo and Smith (1994). We don't pursue
them further except in Problem 3.2.5, and instead tum to construction of Bayes procedure.
II, We first consider the problem of estimating q(O) with quadratic loss, 1(0, 0) = (q(O) -
'f

"
, a? using a nonrandomized decision rule 6. Suppose () is a random variable (or vector)
with (prior) frequency function or density 11"(0). Our problem is to find the function 6 of
X that minimizes r(", 6) ~ E(q(O) - 6(X)j2. This is just the prohlem of finding the
best mean squared prediction error (MSPE) predictor of q(O) given X (see Remark 1.4.5).
Using our results on MSPE prediction, we find that either r(1I", 6) 00 for all 6 or the
Bayes rule 6* is given by
6'(X) = E[q(O) I XJ. (3.2.5)
This procedure is called the Bayes estimate for squared error loss.
In view of formulae (1.2.8) for the posterior density and frequency functions, we can
e
give the Bayes estimate a more explicit form. In the continuous case with real valued and
prior density 1T,
,. x _ !oo= q(O)p(x I 0),,(O)dfI
"()- r= p(x I O),,(O)dfI (3.2.6)
1
In the discrete case, as usual, we just need to replace the integrals by sums. Here is an 1
example.

-
Section 3.2 Bayes Procedures 163

Example 3.2.1. Bayes Estimates for the Mean of a Normal Distribution with a Nor-
mal Prior. Suppose that we want to estimate the mean B of a nonnal distribution with
known variance a 2 on the basis of a sample Xl, . . " Xn. If we choose the conjugate prior
N( '1]0, /2) as in Example 1.6.12, we obtain the posterior distribution

The Bayes estimate is just the mean of the posterior distribution

l/T' ] _ [ n/(J2 ]
J'(X) ~ 1]0 [n/(J' + l/T' + X n/(J' + l/T' (3.2.7)

Its Bayes risk (the MSPE of the predictor) is just

r(7r, J') E(e - E(e I X))' = E[Ee - E(e I X))' I X)]

E[(J'/(l+~)]=
n n/ 2 2 1
nja + 1/7 2 '
No finite choice of '1]0 and 7 2 will lead to X as a Bayes estimate. But X is the limit of such
estimates as prior knowledge becomes "vague" (7 - 00 with. 1]0 fixed). In fact, X is the
estimate that (3.2.6) yields, if we substitute the prior "density" 7r( 0) = 1 (Prohlem 3.2.1).
Such priors with f 7r(e) ~ 00 or 2: 7r(0) ~ 00 are called impropa The resulting Bayes
procedures are also called improper.
Fonnula (3.2.7) reveals the Bayes estimate in the proper case to be a weighted average

MID + (1 - w)X

of the estimate to be used when there are no observations, that is, '1]0, and X with weights
inversely proportional to the Bayes risks of these two estimates. Because the Bayes risk
of X, a 2 / n, tends to a as n _ 00, the Bayes estimate corresponding to the prior density
N(1]O' 7 2 ) differs little from X for n large. In fact, X is approximately a Bayes estimate
for anyone of these prior distributions in the sense that Ir( 7r, r) - r( 7r, J' )]/r( 7r, J') ~ 0
as n ---+ 00. For more on this, see Section 5.5. 0
We now tum to the problem of finding Bayes rules for gelleral action spaces A and loss
functions l. To begin with we consider only nonrandomized rules. If we look at the proof
of Theorem 1.4.1, we see that the key idea is to consider what we should do given X = x.
Thus, E(Y I X) is the best predictor because E(Y I X ~ ,) minimizes the conditional
MSPE E(Y - a)' I X ~ x) as a function of the action a. Applying the same idea in the
general Bayes decision problem, we fonn the posterior risk

r(a I x) = E(l(e, a) I X = x).


This quantity r(a I x) is what we expect to lose, if X = :x and we use action a. Intuitively,
we should, for each x, take that action a = J*(x) that makes r(a I x) as small as possible.
This action need not exist nor be unique if it does exist. However,
164 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

Proposition 3.2.1. Suppose that there exists a/unction 8*(x) such that

r(o'(x) [x) = inf{r(a I x) : a E A}. (3.2.8)

Then 0* is a Bayes rule.

:i Proof. As in the proof of Theorem 1.4.1. we obtain for any 0


""
r(?f,o) = E[I(O,o(X))] = E[E(I(O,o(X)) I X)]. (3.2.9)

""
"
But. by (3.2.8),
I
,!"
"
j;
E[I(O,o(X)) I X = x] = r(o(x) I x) > r(o'(x) I x) = E[I(O,o'(X)) IX = x].
!in Therefore,
j;,
E[I(O,o(X)) I X] > E[I(O,o'(X)) I X],
and the resnlt follows from (3.2.9). o
As a first illustration. consider the oil-drilling example (Example 1.3.5) with priOf
?f(0,) = 0.2, ?f(O,) = 0.8. Suppose we observe x = O. Then the posterior distribution of
o is by (1.2.8)

Thus, the posterior risks of the actions aI, az, and aa are
8
r(at 10) - + 91(0" ad 10.67
r(a, I 0) r(a, 10) 5.89.

Therefore, az has the smallest posterior risk and, if 0" is the Bayes rule.

0'(0) ~ a,.
Similarly,
r(al 11) = 8.35, r(a, [I) = 3.74, r(a, 11) = 5.70
and we conclude that
0'(1) = a,.
Therefore. 6* = 05 as we found previously. The great advantage of our new approach is that
it enables us to compute the Bayes procedure without undertaking the usually impossible j

calculation of the Bayes risks of all corrpeting procedures.


More generally consider the following class of situations.
Example 3.2,2, Bayes Procedures Whfn e and A Are Finite. Let e
= {Oo,. ,Op},
A = {ao, ... , a q }. let Wij > 0 be given constants, and let the loss incurred when (}i is true
and action aj is taken be given by
Section 3.2 Bayes Procedures 165

Let 1r(0) be a prior distribution assigning mass 1ri to Oi, so that 1ri > 0, i = 0, ... ,p, and
Ef 0 1ri = 1. Suppose, moreover, that X has density or frequency function p(x I 8) for
each O. Then, by (1.2.8), the posterior probabilities are

and, thus,

EiWipTiP(X I Oi)
(
raj I)
x = . (3.2.10)
Ei 1fiP(X I Oi)
The optimal action 6* (x) has

r(o'(x) I x) = min r(oj I x).


O<rSq

Here are two interesting specializations.

(a) Classification: Suppose that p = q, we identify aj with OJ, j = 0, ... ,p, and let

1, i f j
Wii O.

This can be thought of as the classification problem in which we have p + 1 known


disjoint populations and a new individual X comes along who is to be classified in
one of these categories. In this case,

r(Oi Ix) = Pl8 f ei I X = xl


and minimizing r(Oi I x) is equivalent to the reasonable procedure of maximizing
the posterior probability,

PI8 = ei I X = xl = 1fiP(X lei)


Ej1fjp(x I OJ)

(b) Testing: Suppose p = q = 1, 1ro = 1r, 1rl = 1 - 'Jr, 0 < 1r < 1, ao corresponds
to deciding 0 = 00 and al to deciding 0 = 01 This is a special case of the testing
fonnulation of Section 1.3 with 8 0 = {eo} and 8 1 = {ed. The Bayes rule is then
to
decide e = 01 if (1- 1f)p(x I 0, ) > 1fp(x I eo)
decide e = eo if (1 - 1f)p(x IeIl < 1fp(x Ieo)
and decide either ao or al if equality occurs. See Sections 1.3 and 4.2 on the option
of randomizing .between ao and al if equality occurs. As we let 'Jr vary between zero
and one. we obtain what is called the class of Neyman-Pearson tests, which provides
the solution to the problem of minimizing P (type II error) given P (type I error)
< Ct. This is treated further in Chapter 4. D
166 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

To complete our illustration of the utility of Proposition 3.2. L we exhibit in "closed


form" the Bayes procedure for an estimation problem when the loss is not quadratic.
Example 3.2.3. Bayes Estimation ofthe Probability ofSuccess in n Bernoulli Trials. Sup-
pose that we wish to estimate () using X I, ... , X n , the indicators of n Bernoulli trials with
probability of success e, We shall consider the loss function I given by
(0 - a)2
1(0, a) = 0(1 _ 0)' 0 < 0 < I, a real. (3.2.11)
"-
-"",
This close relative of quadratic loss gives more weight to parameter values close to zero and
d
- one. Thus, for () close to zero, this l((), a) is close to the relative squared error (fJ - a)2 JO,
lt makes X have constant risk, a property we shall find important in the next section. The
analysis can also be applied to other loss functions. See Problem 3.2.5.
By sufficiency we need only consider the number of successes, S. Suppose now that
we have a prior distribution. Then, if aU terms on the right-hand side are finite,

rea I k)
(3.2.12)
;,
I
I Minimizing this parabola in a, we find our Bayes procedure is given by

J'(k) = E(1/(1 - 0) I S = k) (3.2.13)


""-, E(I/O(I - 0) IS - k)
-I
, ;

- provided the denominator is not zero. For convenience let us now take as prior density the
-
density br " (0) of the bela distribution i3( r, s). In Example 1. 2.1 we showed that this leads
to a i3(k +r,n +s - k) posteriordistributionforOif S = k. Ifl < k < n-I and n > 2,
,,.i!
then all quantities in (3.2.12) and (3.2.13) are finite, and
- .
,
";1- Jo'(I/(1 - O))bk+r,n_k+,(O)dO
J'(k)
J~(1/0(1- O))bk+r,n_k+,(O)dO
-
(3.2.14)
B(k+r,n-k+s-I) k+r-l
B(k + r - I, n - k + s - I) n+s+r-2'
where we are using the notation B.2.11 of Appendix B. If k = 0, it is easy to see that a =
is the only a that makes r(a I k) < 00. Thus, J'(O) = O. Similarly, we get J'(n) = 1. If

we assume a un!form prior density, (r = s = 1), we see that the Bayes procedure is the
usual estimate, X. This is not the case for quadratic loss (see Problem 3.2.2). 0

"Real" computation of Bayes procedures


The closed fonos of (3.2.6) and (3.2.10) make the compulation of (3.2.8) appear straight-
forward. Unfortunately, this is far from true in general. Suppose, as is typically the case,
that 0 ~ (0" . .. , Op) has a hierarchically defined prior density,
"(0,, O2,... ,Op) = "1 (Od"2(02 I( 1 ) ... "p(Op I Op_ d. (3.2.15)
I
Section 3.2 Bayes Procedures 167

Here is an example.
Example 3.2.4. The random effects model we shall study in Volume II has

(3.2.16)

where the ij are i.i.d. N(O, (J:) and Jl, and the vector ~ = (AI, .. ' ,AI) is independent
of {i; ; 1 < i < I, 1 < j < J} with LI." ... ,LI.[ i.i.d. N(O,cri), 1 < j < J,
Jl, '"'" N(Jl,O l (J~). Here the Xi)" can be thought of as measurements on individual i and Ai
is an "individual" effect. If we now put a prior distribution on (Jl,,(J~,(J~) making them
independent, we have a Bayesian model in the usual form. But it is more fruitful to think of
this model as parametrized by () = (J.L, (J~, (J~, AI,. '. ,AI) with the Xii I () independent
N(f.l + Ll. i . cr~). Then p(x I 0) = lli,; 'Pu.(Xi; - f.l- Ll. i ) and
I
11'(0) = 11'}(f.l)11'2(cr~)11'3(cri) II 'PU" (LI.,) (3.2.17)
i=l
where <Pu denotes the N(O, (J2) density.
]n such a context a loss function frequently will single out some single coordinate Os
(e.g., LI.} in 3.2.17) and to compute r(a I x) we will need the posterior distribution of
ill I X. But this is obtainable from the posterior distribution of (J given X = x only by
integrating out OJ, j t=- s, and if p is large this is intractable. ]n recent years so-called
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have made this problem more tractable
and the use of Bayesian methods has spread. We return to the topic in Volume II. 0

Linear Bayes estimates


When the problem of computing r( 1r, 6) and 611" is daunting, an alternative is to consider
- - -
a class 'D of procedures for which r( 'R', 6) is easy to compute and then to look for 011" E 'D
-
that minimizes r( 1f 16) for 6 E 'D. An example is linear Bayes estimates where, in the case
of squared error loss [q( 0) - a]2, the problem is equivalent to minimizing the mean squared
prediction error among functions of the form a + L;=l bjXj _ If in (1.4.14) we identify
q(8) with Y and X with Z, the solution is

8(X) = Eq(8) + IX - E(X)]T{3

where f3 is as defined in Section 1.4. For example, if in the 11l0del (3.2.16), (3.2.17) we
set q(fJ) = Ll 1 , we can find the linear Bayes estimate of Ll 1 hy using 1.4.6 and Problem
1.4.21. We find from (1.4.14) that the best linear Bayes estimator of LI.} is

(3.2.18)

where E(Ll.I) = 0, X = (XIJ, ... ,XIJ)T, P. = E(X) and/l = ExlcExA,. For the
given model
168 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

Var(X I ;) =E Var(X,) I B) + Var E(XIj I BJ = ET~) + (T~ + (T~,

E Cov(X,j , Xlk I B) + Cov(E(X'j I B), E(Xlk I BJ)


0+ Cov(1' + II'!, I' + tl.,) = (T~ + (T~,

Cov(tl. Xlj) =E Cov(X,j , tl., I B) + Cov(E(XIj I B), E(tl. l I 0 = 0 + (T~, = (Tt


"
!:, From these calculations we find f3 and OL(X). We leave the details to Problem 3.2.10.
, Linear Bayes procedures are useful in actuarial science, for example, Biihlmann (1970)
'I and Norberg (1986).
I',
ii" Bayes estimation, maximum likelihood, and equivariance
if As we have noted earlier. the maximum likelihood estimate can be thought of as the
I
mode of the Bayes posterior density when the prior density is (the usually improper) prior
71"(0) ;,::; c. When modes and means coincide for the improper prior (as in the Gaussian
case), the MLE is an improper Bayes estimate. In general, computing means is harder than
modes and that again accounts in part for the popularity of maximum likelihood.
An important property of the MLE is equivariance: An estimating method M producing
~

the estimate (j M is said to be equivariant with respect to reparametrization if for every one-

-
~

to-Dne function h from e to fl = h (e). the estimate of w '" h(B) is WM = h(OM); that is,
~
(h(O M= h(BM ). In Problem 2.2.16 we show that the MLE procedure is equivariant. If
~

we consider squared error loss. then the Bayes procedure (}B = E(8 I X) is not equivariant
for nonlinear transfonnations because

E(h(O) I X) op h(E(O I X)) 1


,
,

for nonlinear h (e.g., Problem 3.2.3).


i
,,

The source of the lack of equivariance of the Bayes risk and procedure for squared error
loss is evident from (3.2.9): In the discrete case the conditional Bayes risk is

re(a I x) = LIB - a]'7f(O I x). (3.2.19)


'Ee i
If we set w = h(O) for h one-to-one onto fl = heel, then w has prior >.(w)
and in the w parametrization, the posterior Bayes risk is
= 7f(h- 1
(w)) I
,

r,,(alx) = L[w-aj2>,(wlx)
wE"
(3.2.20)
L[h(B) - a)2 7f (B I x).
'Ee
Thus, the Bayes procedure for squared error loss is not equivariant because squared error
loss is not equivariant and, thus, r,,(a I x) op Te(h- 1(a) Ix).
Section 3.2 Bayes Procedures 169

Loss functions of the form l((}, a) = Q(Po, Pa) are necessarily equivariant. The
Kullback-Leibler divergence K(},a), (J,a E e, is an example of such a loss function.
It satisfies Ko(w, a) = Ke(O, h- 1 (a)), thus, with this loss function,
ro(a I x) ~ re(h-1(a) I x).
See Problem 2.2.38. In the discrete case using K means that the importance of a loss
is measured in probability units, with a similar interpretation in the continuous case (see
(A.7.l 0. In the N(O, "J) e,
case the K L (Kullback-Leibler) loss K( a) is ~n(a - 0)'
(Problem 2.2.37), that is, equivalent to squared error loss. In canonical exponential families

K(1], a) = L[ryj - ajJE1]Tj + A(1]) - A(a).
j=1

Moreover, if we can find the KL loss Bayes estimate 1]BKL of the canonical parameter
7] and if 1] = c( 9) : e
- t E is one-to-one, then the K L loss Bayes estimate of 9 in the
~

general exponential family is 9 BKL = C- 1(1]BKd.


For instance, in Example 3.2.1 where J.l is the mean of a nonnal distribution and the
prior is nonnal, we found the squared error Bayes estimate jiB = wf/o + (l-w)X, where
1]0 is the prior mean and w is a weight. Because the K L loss is equivalent to squared error
for the canonical parameter p, then if w = h(p), WBKL = h('iiUKL), where 'iiBKL =
wTJo + (1 - w)X.
Bayes procedures based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss function are important
for their applications to model selection and their connection to "minimum description
(message) length" procedures. See Rissanen (1987) and Wallace and Freeman (1987).
More recent reviews are Shibata (1997), Dowe, Baxter, Oliver, and Wallace (1998), and
Hansen and Yu (2000). We will return to this in Volume 11.

Bayes methods and doing reasonable things


There is a school of Bayesian statisticians (Berger, 1985; DeGroot, 1%9; Lindley,
1965; Savage, 1954) who argue on nonnative grounds that a decision theoretic framework
and rational behavior force individuals to use only Bayes procedures appropriate to their
personal prior 1r. This is not a view we espouse because we view a model as an imperfect
approximation to imperfect knowledge. However, given that we view a model and loss
structure as an adequate approximation, it is good to know that generating procedures on
the basis of Bayes priors viewed as weighting functions is a reasonable thing to do. This is
the conclusion of the discussion at the end of Section 1.3. It may be shown quite generally
as we consider all possible priors that the class 'Do of Bayes procedures and their limits is
complete in the sense that for any 6 E V there is a 60 E V o such that R(0, 60 ) < R(0, 6)
for all O.
Summary. We show how Bayes procedures can be obtained for certain problems by COm-
puting posterior risk. In particular, we present Bayes procedures for the important cases
of classification and testing statistical hypotheses. We also show that for more complex
problems, the computation of Bayes procedures require sophisticated statistical numerical
techniques or approximations obtained by restricting the class of procedures.
170 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

3.3 MINIMAX PROCEDURES


In Section 1.3 on the decision theoretic framework we introduced minimax procedures as
ones corresponding to a worst-case analysis; the true () is one that is as "hard" as possible.
That is, 6 1 is better than 82 from a minimax point of view if sUPe R(0,6 1 ) < sUPe R(B, 82 )
and ois said to be minimax if

.
supR(O, 0')
, .
= infsupR(O,o).
Here (J and 8 are taken to range over 8 and V = {all possible decision procedures (possibly
randomized)} while P = {p. : 0 E e}. It is fruitful to consider proper subclasses of V
and subsets of P. but we postpone this discussion.
The nature of this criterion and its relation to Bayesian optimality is clarified by consid-
, ering a so-called zero sum game played by two players N (Nature) and S (the statistician).
I
The statistician has at his or her disposal the set V of all randomized decision procedures
whereas Nature has at her disposal all prior distributions 1r on 8. For the basic game, 5
picks 0 without N's knowledge, N picks 1f without 5's knowledge and then all is revealed
and S pays N

r(Jr,o) = J R(O,o)dJr(O)

where the notation f R(O, o)dJr(0) stands for f R(0, o)Jr(O)dII in the continuous case and
,,
, L, R(Oj, o)Jr(O j) in the discrete case.
S tries to minimize his or her loss, N to maximize her gain. For simplicity, we assume
in the general discussion that follows that all sup's and inf's are assumed. There are two
related partial information games that are important.
I: N is told the choice 0 of 5 before picking 1r and 5 knows the rules of the game. Then
,Ii N naturally picks 1f,; such that
r(Jr"o) ~supr(Jr,o), (3.3.1)

that is, 1f,; is leastfavorable against o. Knowing the rules of the game S naturally picks 0*
such that

. , .
r( Jr,., 0) = sup r(Jr, 0') = inf sup r(Jr, 0). (3.3.2)

We claim that 0* is minimax. To see this we note first that,

for allJr, o. On the other hand, if R(0" 0) = suP. R(0, 0), then if Jr, is point mass at 0"
r( Jr" 0) = R(O" 0) and we conclude that ,
supr(Jr,o) = sup R(O, 0) (3.3.3)
I
,


Section 3.3 Minimax Procedures 171

and our claim follows.


II: S is told the choke 7r of N before picking 6 and N knows the rules of the game.
Then S naturally picks 6 1r such that

That is, r5 rr is a Bayes procedure for 11". Then N should pick 7r* such that

(3.3.4)

For obvious reasons, 1f* is called a least favorable (to S) prior distribution. As we shall see
by example, altbough the rigbt-hand sides of (3.3.2) and (3.3.4) are always defined, least
favorable priors and/or minimax procedures may not exist and, if they exist, may not be
umque.
The key link between the search for minimax procedures in the basic game and games
I and II is the von Neumann minimax theorem of game theory, which we state in our
language.
Theorem 3.3.1. (von Neumann). If both e and D are finite, then:

(a) v=supinfr(1I",6), v=infsupr(1I",6)


rr ?5 ?5 11"

are both assumed by (say) 7r* (least favorable), 6* minimax, respectively. Further,

(
v=r1f,u") =v-. (3.3.5)

v and v are called the lower and upper values of the basic game. When v = v = v
(saY), v is called the value of the game.
Remark 3.3.1. Note (Problem 3.3.3) that von Neumann's theorem applies to classification
and testing when eo ~ {eo} and e,
= {eIl (Example 3.2.2) but is too reSlrictive in ilS
assumption for the great majority of inference problems. A generalization due to Wald and
Karlin-see Karlin (1 959)-states that the conclusions of the theorem remain valid if and e
D are compact subsets of Euclidean spaces. There are more far-reaching generalizations
but, as we shall see later, without some form of compactness of and/or D, although e
equality of v and v holds quite generally, existence of least favorable priors and/or minimax
procedures may fail.
The main practical import of minimax theorems is, in fact, contained in a converse and
its extension that we now give. Remarkably these hold without essentially any restrictions
e
on and D and are easy to prove.
Proposition 3.3.1. Suppose 6**. 7r** can be found such that
** =
U r
()1r.', 1f ** = 1rJ (3.3.6)
172 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

that is, 0** is Bayes against 11"** and 11"** is least favorable against 0**. Then v v =
R( 11"** ,0**). That is, 11"** is least favorable and J*'" is minimax.
To utilize this result we need a characterization of 11"8. This is given by

Proposition 3.3.2.11"8 is leastfavorable against iff


1r,jO: R(O,b) = supR(O',b)) = 1. (3,3,7)
.'
That is, n a assigns probability only to points () at which the function R(, 0) is maximal.
Thus, combining Propositions 3.3.1 and 3.3.2 we have a simple criterion, "A Bayes
rule with constant risk is minimax."
Note that 11"8 may not be unique. In particular, if R(O, 0) = constant. the rule has
constant risk, then all 11" are least favorable.
We now prove Propositions 3.3.1 and 3.3.2.
Proof of Proposition 3.3.1. Note first that we always have
v<v (3.3.8)
because, trivially,

i~fr(1r,b) < r(1r,b') (3.3,9)

for aIln, 5'. Hence,

v = sup in,fr(1r,b) < supr(1r,b') (3,3.10)



for all 0' and v < infa, sUP1r 1'(11", (/) = v. On the other hand. by hypothesis,
,
v> inf1'(11"*'",6) = 1'(1I"*",0*'") = .
sup1'(1r,6**) > v. (3.3.11)

Combining (3.3.8) and (3.3.11) we conclude that

:r
v = i~f 1'(11"**,0) = 1'(11"**,6**) = s~p1'(1I",0*"') = V (3.3.12)

'I"
,.;
as advertised. o
~l Proofof Proposition 3.3.2. 1r is least favorable for b iff

E.R(8,6) = f r(O,b)d1r(O) =s~pr( ..,6). (3.3.13)

,.,
But by (3.3.3),

supr(..,b) = supR(O, 6), (3.3,14)



i, Because E.R(8, 6) = sUP. R(O, b), (3.3,13) is possible iff (3.3.7) holds. o
Putting the two propositions together we have the following.

Section 3.3 Minimax Procedures 173

Theorem 3.3.2. Suppose 0* has sUPo R((}, 0*) = 1" < 00. If there exists a prior 11"* such
that 0* is Bayes for 11"* and tr" {(} : R( (}, 0") = r} = 1, then 0'" is minimax.
Example 3.3.1. Minimax estimation in the Binomial Case. Suppose S has a B(n,B)
distribution and X = Sjn,as in Example 3.2.3. Let I(B, a) ~ (B-a)'jB(I-B),O < B < 1.
For this loss function,

R(B X) = E(X _B)' = B(I-B) = ~


, B(I-B) nB(I-B) n'
- -
and X does have constant risk. Moreover, we have seen in Example 3.2.3 that X is Bayes,
when 8 is U(Ol 1). By Theorem 3.3.2 we conclude that X is minimax and, by Proposition
3.3.2, the uniform distribution least favorable.
For the usual quadratic loss neither of these assertions holds. The minimax estimate is

o's=S+hln = .,fii X+ I 1
() n+.,fii .,fii+l .,fii+1 2

This estimate does have constant risk and is Bayes against a (J( y'ri/2, vn/2) prior (Prob-
lem 3.3.4). This is an example of a situation in which the minimax principle leads us to an
unsatisfactory estimate. For quadratic loss, the limit as n --t 00 of the ratio of the risks of
0* and X is > 1 for every () -=f ~. At B = !
the ratio tends to 1. Details are left to Problem
3.3.4. 0
Example 3.3.2. Minimax Testing. Satellite Communications. A test to see whether a
communications satellite is in working order is run as follows. A very strong signal is
beamed from Earth. The satellite responds by sending a signal of intensity v > 0 for n
seconds or, if it is not working, does not answer. Because of the general "noise" level in
space the signals received on Earth vary randomly whether the satellite is sending ~r not.
The mean voltage per second of the signal for each of the n seconds is recorded. Denote
the mean voltage of the signal received through the ith second less expected mean voltage
due to noise by Xi. We assume that the Xi are independently and identically distributed

as N(p" 0'2) where p, = v, if the satellite functions, and otherwise. The variance 0'2 of
the "noise" is assumed known. Our problem is to decide whether "J.l = 0" or"p, = v." We
view this as a decision problem with -
1 loss. If the number of transmissions is fixed, the
minimax rule minimizes the maximum probability of error (see (1.3.6)). What is this risk?
A natural first step is to use the characterization of Bayes tests given in the preceding

section. If we assign probability 1r to and 1 - 1r to v, use 0 - 1 loss, and set L(x, 0, v) =
p( x Iv) j p(x I 0), then the Bayes test decides I' = v if

L(x,O,v) = exp {
a
"
2"EXi - - ,
2a
nv'} > 1-7l'

and decides p, =
if
7l'
L(x,O,v) <:---
1-7l'
174 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

This test is equivalent to deciding f.t = v (Problem 3.3.1) if. and only if,
1
T= ;;;:EXi>t,
"yn
,
,,
where,

t = ";;;:
vyn
[log " + -2
nv']
a
1- 7r
2 '

If we call this test d-,r.

R(O,J. ) 1 ~ <I>(t) = <1>( -t)


R(v,o,) <I> (t - vf)
To get a minimax test we must have R(O, 61r ) = R( V, 6ft), which is equivalent to

v.,fii
-t = t - -"--'
h
or
"
v.,fii
~. t= .
20-
I,~
','
, Because this value of t corresponds to 7r = !.
the intuitive test, which decides JJ = v if and
only ifT > ~[Eo(T) + Ev(T)J, is indeed minimax.
,
0


'I e
If is not bounded, minimax rules are often not Bayes rules but instead can be obtained
as limits of Bayes rules. To deal with such situations we need an extension of Theorem
3.3.2.
Theorem 3,3,3, Let 0' be a rule such that sup.R(O,o') = r < 00, let {"d denote
a sequence of pn'or distributions such that 'lrk;{8 : R(B,o*) = r} = 1, and let Tk =
inffJ r( ?rie, J), where r( 7fkl 0) denotes the Bayes risk wrt 'lrk;. If

Tk - Task - 00, (3.3.i5)

then J* is minimax.
Proof Because r( "k, 0') = r

supR(B, 0') = rk + 0(1)



where 0(1) ~ 0 as k ~ 00. But hy (3.3.13) for any competitor 0

supR(O,o) > E.,(R(B,o)) > rk ~supR(O,o') -0(1). (3.3.16)


,
'.
If we let k _ 00 the left-hand side of (3.3.16) is unchanged, whereas the right tends to
suP. R(B, 0'). 0 j
1


Section 3.3 M'mimax Procedures 175

Example 3.3.3. Normal Mean. We now show that X is minimax in Example 3.2.1. Identify
1fk with theN(1Jo, 7 2 ) prior where k = 7 2 . Then

whereas the Bayes risk of the Bayes rule of Example 3.2.1 is


2 2
7 0- a2 1 0-
2

i~frk(J) ~ (,,'/n) +7' n = n - (,,'/n) +7' n

Because (0-
2
In)1 (T2 In) + 7 2 ) ------> 0 as T 2 - 00, we can conclude that X is minimax. 0

Example 3.3.4. Minimax Estimation in a Nonparametric Setting (after Lehmann). Suppose


XI,'" ,Xn arei.i.d, FE:F

Then X is minimax for estimating B(F) =


EF(Xt} with quadratic loss. This can be
viewed as an extension of Example 3.3.3. Let 1fk be a prior distribution on :F constructed
as foUows:(J)

(i) ".{F: VarF(XIl # M} = O.

(ii) ".{ F : F # N(I', M) for some I'} = O.


(iii) F is chosen by first choosing I' = 6(F) from a N(O, k) distribution and then taking
F = N(6(F),M).

Evidently, the Bayes risk is now the same as in Example 3.3.3 with 0"2 = M. Because.
evidently,

-) VarF(X, ) M
max R(F, X = max
:F :F n n
Theorem 3.3.3 applies and the result follows. o
Minimax procedures and symmetry
As we have seen, minimax procedures have constant risk or at least constant risk on the
"most difficult" 0, There is a deep connection between symmetries of the model and the
structure of such procedures developed by Hunt and Stein, Lehmann, and others, which is
discussed in detail in Chapter 9 of Lehmann (1986) and Chapter 5 of Lehmann and CaseUa
(1998), for instance. We shall discuss this approach somewhat, by example. in Chapters 4
and Volume II but refer to Lehmann (1986) and Lehmann and Casella (1998) for further
reading.
Summary. We introduce the minimax principle in the contex.t of the theory of games.
Using this framework we connect minimaxity and Bayes metbods and develop sufficient
conditions for a procedure to be minimax and apply them in several important examples.
,I .
I 176 Measures of Performance Chapter 3
I
;1
,
, More specifically, we show how finding minimax procedures can be viewed as solving
,
a game between a statistician S and nature N in which S selects a decision rule 8 and N
.,
selects a prior 1['. The lower (upper) value v(v) of the game is the supremum (infimum)
over priors (decision rules) of the infimum (supremum) over decision rules (priors) of the
Bayes risk. A prior for which the Bayes risk of the Bayes procedure equals the lower value
of the game is called leas! favorable. When v = ii, the game is said to have a value v.
Von Neumann's Theorem states that if e and D are both finite, then the game of S versus
N has a value 11, there is a least favorable prior 1[" and a minimax rule 8* such that J* is
Ii the Bayes rule for n* and 1r* maximizes the Bayes risk of J* over all priors. Moreover,
,II
,
v equals the Bayes risk of the Bayes rule 8* for the prior 1r*. We show that Bayes rules
with constant risk, or more generally with constant risk over the support of some prior, are
I minimax. This result is extended to rules that are limits of Bayes rules with constant risk
and we use it to show that x is a minimax rule for squared error loss in the N (0 , 0'5) model.

3.4 UNBIASED ESTIMATION AND RISK


INEQUALITIES

3.4.1 Unbiased Estimation, Survey Sampling


In the previous two sections we have considered two decision theoretic optimality princi-
ples, Bayes and minimaxity, for which it is possible to characterize and, in many cases,
compute procedures (in particular estimates) that are best in the class of all procedures,
D, according to these criteria. An alternative approach is to specify a proper subclass of
procedures. Do C D, on other grounds. computational ease, symmetry, and so on. and
then see if within the Do we can find 8* E Do that is best according to the "gold standard,"
R(0, 5) > R(0, 5') for aile, all 5 E Va, Obviously, we can also take this point of view with
humbler aims, for example, looking for the procedure 0; E Do that minimizes the Bayes
risk with respect to a prior 1r among all J E Do. This approach has early on been applied to
parametric families Va. When Do is the class of linear procedures and I is quadratic Joss,
the solution is given in Section 3.2.
In the non-Bayesian framework, if Y is postulated as following a linear regression
model with E(Y) = zT (3 as in Section 2.2.1, then in estimating a linear function of the
/3J. it is natural to consider the computationally simple class of linear estimates, S(Y) =
L:~ 1 diYi . This approach coupled with the principle of unbiasedness we now introduce
leads to the famous Gauss-Markov theorem proved in Section 6.6.
We introduced, in Section 1.3, the notion of bias of an estimate O(X) of a parameter
=
q(O) in a model P {Po: 0 E e} as

Biaso(5) = Eo5(X) - q(O),

An estimate such that Biase (8) = 0 is called unbiased. This notion has intuitive appeal,
ruling out, for instance. estimates that ignore the data, such as 5(X) = q(Oo), which can't
be beat for 8 = 80 but can obviously be arbitrarily terrible. The most famous unbiased
estimates are the familiar estimates of f.L and (72 when XI, ... I X n are d.d. N (Il, (72)
Section 3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 177

given by (see Example 1.3.3 and Problem 1.3.8)


~ ~

Jt =X (3.4.1 )
n
.<
2
~ 1 L (Xi - ~ 2.
X) (3.4.2)
n-l ~ ooc 1

Because for unbiased estimates mean square error and variance coincide we call an unbi-
ased estimate O*(X) of q(O) that has minimum MSE among all unbiased estimat~s for all
0, UMVU (uniformly minimum variance unbiased). As we shall see shortly for X and in
Volume 2 for ..,2, these are both UMVU.
Unbiased estimates playa particularly important role in survey sampling.
Example 3.4.1. Unbiased Estimates in Survey Sampling. Suppose we wish to sample
from a finite population, for instance, a census unit, to determine the average value of a
variable (say) monthly family income during a time between two censuses and suppose
that we have available a list of families in the unit with family incomes at the last census.
Write Xl, ... , X N for the unknown current family incomes and correspondingly UI, ... , UN
for the known last census incomes. We ignore difficulties such as families moving. We
let Xl, ... ,Xn denote the incomes of a sample of n families drawn at random without
replacement. This leads to the model with x = (Xl, ... , X N ) as parameter

.1
(~) If{aj, ... ,an}C{XI,,XN}
(3.4.3)

= 0 otherwise.

We want to estimate the parameter X = iv L:f-l


Xj. It is easy to see that the natural
estimate X =
~ L:~ 1 Xi is unbiased (Problem 3.4.14) and has

(3.4.4)

where

2
CT. I"
~ N L,.(Xi
N
~2 .
-x) (3.4.5)
1=1

This method of sampling does not use the information contained in 'ttl, ... , UN' One way
to do this. reflecting the probable correlation between ('ttl.' .. , UN) and (Xl, ... , X N ), is
to estimate by a regression estimate
~

XR =X - b(U - il) (3.4.6)

where b is a prespecified positive constant, Ui is the last census income corresponding to


Xi, and u = it E~ 1 'Ui, [J = ~ I:~ 1 Ui Clearly for each b, XR is also unbiased. If
'I
,i
, 178
, Measures of Performance Chapter 3
i,
the correlation of Ui and Xi is positive and b < 2Cov(U, Xl!Var(U), this will be a beller
estimate than X and the best choice of b is bopt =
cov(U,X)!Var(U) (Problem 3.4.19),
, The value of bopt is unknown but can be estimated by
II,
I
1,1

The resulting estimate is no longer unbiased but behaves well for large samples-see Prob-
lem 5.3.11.
An alternative approach to using the Uj is to not sample all units with the same prob-
ability. Specifically let 0 < 7fl, ... 111" N < 1 with Ef 1 1fj = n. For each unit 1, ... , N
toss a coin with probability 7fj of landing heads and select Xj if the coin lands heads. The
result is a sample S = {Xl,. ", X M } of random size M such that E(M) = n (Problem
3.4.15). Ifthc 'lrj are not all equal, X is not unbiased but the following estimate known as
the Horvitz-Thompson estimate is:
,,j M
,,. ~ 1 ",Xi
XHT=-LJ- (3.4,7)
." , N i=l 7fJ,
,I.
II where Ji is defined by Xi = xJ;. To see this write
! !

I: ~XHT ~ N1 LJ
N
' " Xj
, 7'" l(Xj E S),
I, j=1 3
,~'!

:I,
it
Because 1rj = P[Xj E Sj by construction unbiasedness follows. A natural choice of 1rj is
~n. This makes it more likely for big incomes to be induded and is intuitively desirable.
II
>:'
,
, ...

,j'
I It is possible to avoid the undesirable random sample size of these schemes and yet have
specified 1rj. The Horvitz-Thompson estimate then stays unbiased. Further discussion of
':
this and other sampling schemes and comparisons of estimates are left to the problems. 0

Discussion. Unbiasedness is also used in stratified sampling theory (see Problem 1.3.4).
However, outside of sampling, the unbiasedness principle has largely fallen out of favor for
a number of reasons.

(i) Typically unbiased estimates do not exist-see Bickel and Lehmann (1969) and
Problem 3.4.18, for instance.

(ii) Bayes estimates are necessarily biased-see Problem 3.4.2G-and minimax esti-
mates often are. I
j
(iii) Unbiased_estimates do not <:.bey the attractive equivariance property. If B is unbiased ;
for e, q(e) is biased for q(e) unless q is linear. They necessarily in general differ
from maximum likelihood estimates except in an important special case we develop
later.
I,
,
Section 3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 179

Nevertheless. as we shall see in Chapters 5 and 6. good estimates in large samples


~ 1 ~

are approximately unbiased. We expect that jBiase(Bn)I/Vart (B n ) -----.. 0 or equivalently


- -
Vare(Bn)/MSEe(Bn) ---t 1 as n ---t 00. In particular we shall show that maximum like-
lihood estimates are approximately unbiased and approximately best among all estimates.
The arguments will be based on asymptotic versions of the important inequalities in the
next subsection.
Finally. unbiased estimates are still in favor when it comes to estimating residual vari-
ances. For instance, in the linear regression model Y = ZDf3 + e of Section 2.2, the
variance a 2 = Var(ei) is estimated by the unbiased estimate 8 2 = iTe/(n - p) where
- -
i = (Y - ZDf3), f3 is the least squares estimate, and p is the number of coefficients in f3.
This preference of 8 2 over the MLE 52 = iT e/n is in accord with optimal behavior when
both the number of observations and number of parameters are large. See Problem 3.4.9.

3.4.2 The Information Inequality

The one-parameter case


We will develop a lower bound for the variance of a statistic, which can be used to
show that an estimate is UMVU. The lower bound is interesting in its own right, has some
decision theoretic applications, and appears in the asymptotic optimality theory of Section
5.4.
We suppose throughout that we have a regular parametric model and further that is e
an open subset of the line. From this point on we will suppose p(x, B) is a density. The
discussion and results for the discrete case are essentially identical and will be referred to in
the future by the same numbers as the ones associated with the continuous~case theorems
given later. We make two regularity assumptions on the family {Pe : BEe}.
(I) The set A ~ {x : p(x,O) > O} docs not depend on O. For all x E A,O E e.
81iJO log p( x, OJ exists and is finite.
(II) 1fT is any statistic such that E 8 (ITf) < 00 for all 0 E e.
then the operations of
integration and differentiation by B can be interchanged in J T( x )p(x, B)dx. That is, for
integration over Rq,

%0 [j T(X)P(x,OJdx] = J T(xJ%oP(x,OJdx (3.4.8)

whenever the right-hand side of (3.4.8) is finite.


Note that in particular (3.4.8) is assumed to hold if T(xJ = I for all x. and we can
J
interchange differentiation and integration in p(x, B)dx.
Assumption II is practically useless as written. What is needed are simple sufficient
conditions on p(x, B) for II to hold. Some classical conditiolls may be found in Apostol
(1974), p. 167. Simpler assumptions can be fonnulated using Lebesgue integration theory.
For instance, suppose I holds. Then 11 holdS provided that for all T such that E.( lTD < 00
180 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

for all e. the integrals


-.
t,
J T(x) [:OP(X,O)] dxand J T(x) [:oP(X,O)] dx
;i
" are continuous functions(3) of O. It is not hard to check (using Laplace transform theory)
I' that a one-parameter exponential family quite generally satisfies Assumptions I and II.
-
I',I Proposition 3.4.1. /fp(x, 0) ~
h(x) exp{ ~(O)T(x) - B(O)} is an exponential family and
,-
1 TJ(B) has a nonvanishing continuous derivative on 8, then I and II hold.
[I
! For instance, suppose XI, ... 1 X n is a sample from a N(B, (J2) population, where a 2
Ii is known. Then (see Table 1.6.1) ~(O) = 0la' and 1 and 11 are satisfied. Similarly, 1 and 11
are satisfied for samples from gamma and beta distributions with one parameter fixed.
I If I holds it is possible to define an important characteristic of the family {Po}, the
Fisher information number, which is denoted by I(B) and given by

1(0) = E. (~ logp(X, 0))' = J(:Ologp(x, 0))' p(x, O)dx. (3.4.9)

Note that 0 < 1(0) < 00.

Lemma 3.4.1. Suppose that 1 and II hold and that


&
E &Ologp(X,O) < 00.
Then

(3.4.10)
1
and, thus, I
,
= Var (~ !Ogp(X,O)).
-
1(0) (3.4.11 )

Proof.
I
J{[:oP(X,O)]j P(x,O)} p(x, O)dx

J:Op(x, O)dx ~ :0 Jp(x, O)dx = O.


o
Example 3.4.2. Suppose Xl, ... 1 X n is a sample from a Poisson PCB) population. Then

&
-logp(x
&0
0 ) = ~n,- 1
'0
Xi - n and 1(0) = Var
(~n_l
,-
0
Xi) 1
= -nO = -
0'
n
O
o
Section 3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 181

Here is the main result of this section.


Theorem 3.4.1. (Information Inequality). Let T(X) be all)' statistic such that
Var,(T(X)) < 00 for all O. Denote E,(T(X)) by 1/;(0). Suppose that I and II hold
and 0 < 1(0) < 00. Then for all 0, 1/;(0) is differentiable and

Var (T(X)) > [1/;'(0)]' (3.4.12)


, - I(e) .

Proof. Using I and II we obtain,

1/;'(0) = JT(X):Op(x,O)dX= J T(x) UOIOgp(x,O))P(x,O)dX. (3.4.13)

By (A.I1.l4) and Lemma 3.4.1,

1/;' (e) = Cov (:e log p(X, ej, T(X)) . (3.4.14)

Now let ns apply the correlation (Cauchy-Schwarz) inequality (A.I 1.16) to the random
variables 8/8010gp(X, e) and T(X). We get

(3.4.15)

The theorem follows because, by Lemma 3.4.1, Var (t, 10gp(X, e)) = I(e). 0

The lower bound given in the information inequality depends on T(X) through 1/;(0).
If we consider the class of unbiased estimates of q(B) = B, we obtain a universal lower
bound given by the following.
CoroUary 3.4.1. Suppose the conditions of Theorem 3.4.1 hold and T is an unbiased
estimate ofB, Then

1
Var.(T(X) > I(O) (3.4.16)

The number 1/I(B) is often referred to as the information or Cramer-Roo lower bound
for the variance of an unbiased estimate of 'tjJ(B).
Here's another important special case.
Proposition 3.4.2. Suppose that X = (XI, ... ,Xu) is a sample from a population with
density f(x,O), 0 E e, and that the conditions of Theorem 3.4.1 hold. Let [,(0) =
E(feiogf(X"e)', then

I(e) = nI, (e) and Var.(T(X)) > [1/;'(~)I)', (3.4.17)


nI, 0
182 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

Proof. This is a consequence of Lemma 3.4.1 and

I(B) = Var [:B !ogp(X,B)] Var


[
~
" i)
8B iogj(Xi,B) ]

~var [%0 ]Ogj(Xi,B)] = nh(B).


o
II (B) is often referred to as the information contained in one observation. We have just
shown that the information [(B) in a sample of size n is nh (8).
Next we note how we can apply the information inequality to the problem of unbiased
estimation. If the family {Pe} satisfies I and II and if there exists an unbiased estimate T*
of 1/;(B) such that Var.[T'(X)] = [,p'(B)]'ll(B) for all BEe, then T' is UMVU as an
estimate of 1.j;.
~ -
Example 3.4.2. (Continued). For a sample from a P(B) distribution, the MLE is B ~ X.
- - -
Because X is unbiased and Var( X) ~ Bin, then X is UMVU.
Example 3.4.3. Suppose Xl, .. . , X n is a sample from a nonnal distribution with unknown
mean B and known variance a 2 . As we previously remarked, the conditions of the infor-
mation inequality are satisfied. By Corollary 3.4.1 we see that the conclusion that X is
UMVU follows if
- 1
Var(X) ~ nI, (Br (3.4.18)

Now Var(X) ~ a'ln, whereas if 'P denotes the N(O, 1) density, then

1
,
a '

and (3.4.18) follows. Note that because X is UMVU whatever may be a 2 , we have in fact
"I
proved that X is UMVU even if a 2 is unknown. 0
I We can similarly show (Problem 3.4.1) that if Xl, ... ,Xn are the indicators of n
I
Bernoulli trials with probability of success B, then X is a UMVU estimate of B. These
are situations in which X follows a one-parameter exponential family. This is no accident.
II Theorem 3.4.2, Suppose that the family {p. : BEe} satisfies assumptions I and II and
there exists an unbiased estimate T* of1.j;(B), which achieves the lower bound ofTheo-
rem 3.4.1 for every B. Then {P9} is a one-parameter exponential family with density or
frequency function af the fonn

p(x,B) = h(x)exp[ry(B)T'(x) - B(B)J. (3.4.19)

Conversely, if {P9} is a one-parameter exponentialfamily of the form (1.6.1) with natural


Ii sufficient statistic T( X) and .,.,(8) has a continuous nonvanishing derivative on e, then
i
,i
T(X) achieves the infonnation inequality bound and is a UMVU estimate of E.(T(X.

g
Section 3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 183

Proof We start with the first assertion. Our argument is essentially that of Wijsman (1973).
By (3.4.14) and the conditions for equality in the correlation inequality (A.ll.16) we know
that T'" achieves the lower bound for all (J if, and only if, there exist functions al ((J) and
a2 (B) such that

:B 10gp(X, B) = a, (B)T'(X) + a2(B) (3.4.20)

with Pg probability 1 for each B. From this equality of random variables we shall show that
Pe[X E A'I = 1 for all B where

A' = {x: :Blogp(x,B) = a,(B)T' (x) +a2(B) for all BEe}. (3.4.21 )

Upon integrating both sides of (3.4.20) with respect to B we get (3.4.19).


The passage from (3.4.20) to (3.4.19) is highly technical. However, it is necessary.
Here is the argument. If A, denotes the set of x for which (3.4.20) hold, then (3.4.20)
guarantees Pe(Ae) ~ 1 and assumption 1 guarantees P,,(Ae) = 1 for all B' (Problem
3.4.6). Let BJ , B2 , ... be a denumerable dense subset of 8. Note that if AU = nmAem ,
Pe,(A") = 1 for all B'. Suppose without loss of generality that T(xI) of T(X2) for
Xl, X2 E A"''''. By solving for a" a2 in

(3.4.22)

for j = 1,2, we see that all a2 are linear combinations of {} log p( Xj, B) IdB, j = 1,2 and,
hence, continuous in B. But now if x is such that

:e Iogp(x, B) = aj(B)T'(x) + a2(B) (3.4.23)

for all B1 , B2 ,. " and both sides are continuous in B, then (3.4.23) must hold for all B. Thus,
A ** = A'" and the result follows.
Conversely in the exponential family case (1.6.1) we assume without loss of generality
(Problem 3.4.3) that we have the canonical case with ~(B) = Band B( Bj = A(B) =
logf h(x)exp{BT(x))dx. Then

~ (
80 logp X,B) = T(X) ,
- A (B) (3.4.24)

so that

[(B) = Vare(T(X) - A'(B = VareT(X) = A"(B). (3.4.25)

But ,p(B) = A'(B) and, thus, the information bound is [A"(B))2/A"(B) A"(B)
Vare(T(X) so that T(X) achieves the information bound as an estimate of EeT(X). 0
Example 3.4.4. In the Hardy-Weinberg model of Examples 2.1.4 and 2.2.6,
p(x, B) 2"' exp{(2nj + n2) 10gB + (2n3 + n3) Iog(1 - B))
= 2"' exp{(2n, + nz)[log B - 10g(1 - B) I + 2nlog(1 - BJ}
184 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

where we have used the identity (2nl + HZ) + (2n3 + nz) = 211.. Because this is an expo-
nential family, Theorem 3.4.2 implies that T = (2N 1 + N z )/2n is UMVU for estimating
E(T) ~ (2n)-1[2nB' + 2nB(1 - B)] ~ B.
~ ~

This T coincides with the MLE () of Example 2.2.6. The variance of B can be computed
directly using the moments of the multinomial distribution of (NI N z , Na), or by trans-
forming p(x, B) to canonical form by setting t) = 10g[B((1 - B)] and then using Theorem
~

1.6.2. A third metho:! would be to use Var(B) = I(I(B) and formula (3.4.25). We find
(Problem 3.4.7) Var(B) ~ B(I - B)(2n. 0
Note that by differentiating (3.4.24), we have

iJ' logp (X,B) ~ -A "( B).


aB'

By (3.4.25) we obtain
a'
I(B) = -Eo aB' 10gp(X, B). (3.4.26)

It turns out that this identity also holds outside exponential families;
Proposition 3.4.3. Suppose p(', B) satisfies in addition to I and II: p(,B) is twice differen-
tiable and interchange between integration and differentiation is pennitted. Then (3.4.26)
holds.
Proof We need only check that
I 2 2
a log p(x, B)
aB' a p(x, B) -
= p(x,1 B) aB' (a
aB log p(x, B) )' (3.4.27)

and integrate both sides with respect to p(x, e). o


Example 3.4.2. (Continued). For a sample from a P( B) distribution

EB(-::,IOgp(X,B)) =e-'E(~Xi) = ;,
which equals I(B). 0

DiscRSsion. It often happens, for instance, in the U(O, B) example, that I and II fail to hold,
0
, ..
although UMVU estimates exist. See Volume II. Even worse, as Theorem 3.4.2 suggests, I

','"
in many situations, assumptions I and II are satisfied and UMVU estimates of 1/;(e) exist, I'
,
but the variance of the best estimate is not equal to the bound [,p' (B) I'( I (B). Sharpenings
, of the information inequality are available but don't help in general.
", Extensions to models in which B is multidimensional are considered next.
'oi
The multiparameter case

,,f ,
We will extend the information lower bound to the case of several parameters, ()
(ell" .,ed)' In particular, we will find a lower bound on the variance of an estimator
,
,
Section 3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 185

B1 = T of fh when the parameters 82 , ... ,Bd are unknown. We assume that e is an open
subset of Rd and that {p(x, B) : 0 E 8} is a regular parametric model with conditions I
and II satisfied when differentiation is with respect OJ, j = 1, ... , d. Let p( x, 6) denote the
density or frequency function of X where X E X C Rq.
The (Fisher) information matrix is defined as

(3.4.28)
where

(3.4.29)

Proposition 3.4.4. Under the conditions in the opening paragraph,


(a)

(3.4.30)

a
iJ logp(X, 0), iJO logp(X, 0)
Ijd O) = Covo ( eO ). (3.4.31)
j k

That is,

and
1(0) = Var(';? ologp(X, 0).
(b) If Xl, ... ,Xn are U.d. as X, then X = (Xl, ... ,Xnf' has information matrix
nh (O) where h is the information matrix ofX.
(c) If, in addition, pC B) is twice differentiable and double integration and differentia-
tion under the integral sign can be interchanged,

1(0) =- EO (aO:;Ok IOgp(X,O) , 1 <j< d, 1 <k< d. (3.4.32)

Proof. The arguments follow the d = 1 case and are left to the problems.
Example 3.4.5. Suppose X ~ N(I", er 2), 0 = (I", er 2 ). Then

1 1 2 1 2
logp(x 0)
,
= --log(211')
2
- -loger - - (2 x -1")
2 2a

III (0) = -E [~:2 logp(x, 0)] = E[er- 2 ] ~ er- 2


iJiJ
lt2(0) ~ -E [aer iJl" logp(x,O) ] = -er- 4 E(x -1") = 0 ~ I,. (0)
2

iJ2 ]
l22(0) = -E [ (iJer2)21ogp(x,0) = er- 4 /2.
186 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

Thus, in this case


,,-2 0 )
[(0) = ( 0 ,,-4/2 . (3.4.33)

!; ;,
o
Example 3.4.6. Canonical k-Parameter Exponential Family. Suppose
. !
k
p(x, 0) = explLTj(x)9j - A(O)}h(x) (3.4.34)
j=1
,;,'

() E e open. The conditions I, II are easily checked and because


VOlogp(x,O) = T(X) - A.(O),
then

[(0) = VarOT(X).
By (3.4.30) and Corollary 1.6.1,

[(0) = VarOT(X) = A(O). (3.4.35)

o
~

Next suppose 8 1 = T is an estimate of (Jl with 82, ... J)d assumed unknown. Let
1/;(0) = EOT(X) and let ";'(0) = V1/;( 0) be the d x 1 vector of partial derivatives. Then
Theorem 3.4.3. Assume the conditions of the ,!pening paragraph hold and suppose that
the matrix [(0) is nonsingular Then/or all 0, 1/;(0) exists and

(3.4.36)

Proof, We will use the prediction inequality Var(Y) > Var(I'L(Z, where I'L(Z) denotes
the optimal MSPE linear predictor of Y; that is,

I'L(Z) = I'Y + (Z -l'z)TLz~ Lzy (3.4.37)

Now set Y = T(X), Z = V 0 logp(x, 0). Then


VarO(T(X > Lz~ [-1(0) Lzy (3.4.38)

where Lzy = EO(TVOlogp(X,O) = VOEO(T(X and the last equality follows


from the argument in (3.4.13). 0

Here are some consequences of this result.


Example 3.4.6. (continued). UMVU Estimates in Canonical Exponential Families. Sup-
pose the conditions of Example 3.4.6 hold. We claim that each of Tj(X) is a UMVU
Section 3.4 Unbiased Estimation and Risk Inequalities 187

estimate of EOTj(X). This is a different claim than TJ(X) is UMVU for EOTj(X) if Oi,
i =j:. j, are known. To see our claim note that in our case

(3.4.39)

where, without loss of generality, we let j = 1. We have already computed in Proposition


3.4.4

8'A
rl(O)= ( 8080
)-1 . (3.4.40)
t J kx k

We claim that in this case

,p(OJrI(O),j,T(O) = ~:~ (3.4.41)


I

because ,p(0) is the first row of 1(0) and, hence, ,p(0)1-1(0) ~ (1,0, ... ,0). But
f.,.A(O)
, is just VarOT! (X).
Example 3.4.7. Multinomial Trials. In the multinomial Example 1.6.6 with Xl, ... , X n
i.i.d. a'i X and Aj = P(X = j), j = 1, ... , k, we transformed the multinomial model
M(n, AI, ... , Ak) to the canonical form
p(x,O) = exp{TT(x)O - A(O)}

whereTT(x) = (T!(x), ... ,Tk_I(X)),


n
T;(X) = I)IXi = j], X = (XI, ... ,Xn)T, 0 = (0 1 , .. " Ok_il T,
j=1

k-I
A(O) ~ 1 log 1+ Le Oj

j=l

Note that
8 ne~
80 A (0) = 1 "k I 0 = 1>'; = nE(T;(X))
l
J +LJl=le

82 ne ej (1 + E7 eel _ eOj )
11
80,A(0) = , = n>'j(1- A;) = Var(Tj(X.
j (1 + E7 / eel)
Thus, by Theorem 3.4.3, the lower bound on the variance of an unbiased estimator of
1/Jj(O) = E(n-1Tj(X) = >.; is >.;(1- >';)/1. But because Nj/n is unbiased and has
variance >'j(1 - >'j)/n, then Nj/n is UMVU for >'j. 0
,,
,
'I,
188
" MeasureS of Performance Chapter 3
j
il
Example 3.4.8. The Normal Case. If Xl," . , X n are i.i.d. N(IL. (72) then X is UMVU
1
for J1 and ~ LX; is UMVU for p,2 + (J2, But it does not follow that n~1 L:(Xi - X)2
j
is UMVU for 0 2 . These and other examples and the implications of Theorem 3.4.3 are
explored in the problems. 0
Here is an important extension of Theorem 3.4.3 whose proof is left to Problem 3.4.21. ,

Theorem 3.4.4. Suppose that the conditions afTheorem 3.4.3 hold and

is a d-dimensional statistic. Let

1/J(O) ~EO(T(X))dXl = (1/Jl(O), ... ,,pd(OW


and "'(0) = (~(O)) dxd . Then
J

(3.4.42)

where A > B means aT(A - B)a > Ofor all ,,"xl'


Note that both sides of (3.4.42) are d x d matrices. Also note that

'* VarOO > r'(O).


~ ~

o unbiased
In Chapters 5 and 6 we show that in smoothly parametrized models, reasonable estimates
are asymptotically unbiased. We establish analogues of the information inequality and use
them to show that under suitable conditions the MLE is asymptotically optimal.
Summary. We study the important application of the unbiasedness principle in survey
sampling. We derive the information inequa!ity in one-parameter models and show how
it can be used to establish that in a canonical exponential family, T(X) is the UMVU
estimate of its expectation. Using inequalities from prediction theory, we show how the
infomlation inequality can be extended to the multiparameter case. Asymptotic analogues
oftbese inequalities are sharp and lead to the notion and construction of efficient estimates.

3.5 NON DECISION THEORETIC CRITERIA


In practice, even if the loss function and model are well specified, features other than the
risk function are also of importance in selection of a procedure. The three principal issues
we discuss are the speed and numerical stability of the method of computation used to
obtain the procedure, interpretability of the procedure, and robustness to model departures.

3.5.1 Computation
Speed of computation and numerical stability issues have been discussed briefly in Sec-
tion 2.4. They are dealt with extensively 'in books on numerical analysis such as Dahlquist,
Section 3.5 Nondecision Theoretic Criteria 189

Bjork, and Anderson (1974). We discuss some of the issues and the subtleties that arise in
the context of some of our examples in estimation theory.

Closed form versus iteratively computed estimates


At one level closed form is clearly preferable. For instance, a method of moments
estimate of (A,P) in Example 2.3.2 is given by

where 0- 2 is the empirical variance (Problem 2.2.11). It is clearly easier to compute than
the MLE. Of course, with ever faster computers a difference at this level is irrelevant. But
it reappears when the data sets are big and the number of parameters large.
On the other hand, consider the Gaussian linear model of Example 2.1.1. Then least
squares estimates are given in closed fonn by equ<\tion (2.2.10). The closed fonn here is
deceptive because inversion of a d x d matrix takes on the order of d 3 operations when
done in the usual way and can be numerically unstable. It is in fact faster and better to
solve equation (2.1.9) by, say, Gaussian elimination for the particular z'b
Y.

Faster versus slower algorithms


Consider estimation of the MLE 8 in a general canonical exponential family as in Sec-
tion 2.3. It may be shown that, in the algOrithm we discuss in Section 2.4, if we seek to take
~(J)
enough steps J so that III -III < , < 1 then J is of the order of log ~ (Problem 3.5.1).
~

On the other hand, at least if started close enough to 8, the Newton-Raphson method in
which the jth iterate, fI(j) = iP-l) - A-I (flU -1) (T(X) - A(BU ~l)), takes on the order
of log log ~ steps (Problem 3.5.2). The improvement in speed may however be spurious
since A-I is costly to compute if d is large-though the same trick as in computing least
squares estimates can be used.

The interplay between estimated. variance and computation


As we have seen in special cases in Examples 3.4.3 and 3.4.4, estimates of parameters
based on samples of size n have standard deviations of order n- 1 / 2 . It follows that striving
for numerical accuracy of ord~r smaller than n- 1 / 2 is wasteful. Unfortunately it is hard
to translate statements about orders into specific prescriptions without assuming at least
bounds on the COnstants involved.

3.5.2 Interpretability
Suppose that iu the normal N(Il, (72) Example 2.1.5 we are interested in the parameter III (7

This parameter, the signal-to-noise ratio, for this population of measurements has a clear
interpretation. Its maximum likelihood estimate X/a continues to have the same intuitive
interpretation as an estimate of /1,/ a even if the data are a sample from a distribution with
190 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

mean Jl and variance 0'2 other than the normal. On the other hand, suppose we initially
postulate a model in which the data are a sample from a gamma, 9(Pl.\)' distribution.
Then E(X)/lVar(X) ~ (p/>.)(p/>.')-1/2 = l,I1'. We can now use the MLE iF2,
which as we shall see later (Section 5.4) is for n large a more precise estimate than X/a
if this model is correct. However, the form of this estimate is complex and if the model is
incorrect it no longer is an appropriate estimate of E( X) / [Var( X)] 1/2. We return to this in
Section 5.5.

3.5.3 Robustness
Finally, we turn to robustness.
This is an issue easy to point to in practice but remarkably difficult to formalize ap-
propriately. The idea of robustness is that we want estimation (or testing) procedures to
perform reasonably even when the model assumptions under which they were designed to
perform excellently are not exactly satisfied. However, what reasonable means is connected
to the choice of the parameter we are estimating (or testing hypotheses about). We consider
three situations
(a) The problem dictates the parameter. For instance, the Hardy-Weinberg parameter
() has a clear biological interpretation and is the parameter for the experiment described in
Example 2.1.4. Similarly, economists often work with median housing prices, that is, the
parameter v that has half of the population prices on either side (fonnally, v is any value
such that P(X < v) > ~, P(X > v) > ~). Alternatively, they may be interested in total
consumption of a commodity such as coffee, say () = N p" where N is the population size
and tt is the expected consumption of a randomly drawn individuaL
(b) We imagine that the random variable X* produced by the random experiment we
are interested in has a distribution that follows a ''true'' parametric model with an inter-
pretable parameter B, but we do not necessarily observe X*. The actual observation X is
X contaminated with "gross errOfs"-see the following discussion. But () is still the target
in which we are interested.
(c) We have a qualitative idea of what the parameter is, but there are several parameters
that satisfy this qualitative notion. This idea has been developed by Bickel and Lehmann
(l975a, 1975b. 1976) and Doksum (1975), amoog others. For instance. we may be inter-
ested in the center of a population, and both the mean tt and median v qualify. See Problem
3.5.13.
We will consider situations (b) and (c).

Gross error models


Most measurement and recording processes are subject to gross errors, anomalous val-
ues that arise because of human error (often in recording) or instrument malfunction. To
be a bit formal, suppose that if n measurements X =
(Xi, ... 1 X~) could be taken with-
out gross errors then p. E p. would be an adequate approximation to the distribution
of X* (i.e., we could suppose X* rv p. E P*). However, if gross errors occur, we ob-
serve not X but X = (XI ... , X n ) where most of the Xi = X:, but there are a few
Section 3.5 Nondecision Theoretic Criteria 191
~

wild values. Now suppose we want to estimate B(P*) and use B(X 1 , ... , X n ) knowing
~ ~

that B(Xi, ... , X~) is a good estimate. Informally B(X1 , .. , X n ) will continue to be a
good or at least reasonable estimate if its value is not greatly affected by the Xi -I Xt,
the gross errors. Again informally we shall call such procedures robust. Formal definitions
require model specification, specification of the gross error mechanism, and definitions of
insensitivity to gross errors. Most analyses require asymptotic theory and will have to be
postponed to Chapters 5 and 6. However, two notions, the sensitivity curve and the break-
down point, make sense for fixed n. The breakdown point will be discussed in Volume II.
We next define and examine the sensitivity curve in the context of the Gaussian location
model, Example 1.1.2, and then more generally.
Consider the one-sample symmetric location model P defined by

i=l""l n , (3.5.1 )

where the errors are independent, identically distributed, and symmetric about 0 with com-
mon density f and d.f. F. If the error distribution is normal, X is the best estimate in a
variety of senses.
In our new formulation it is the xt that obey (3.5.1). A reasonable formulation of a
model in which the possibility of gross errors is acknowledged is to make the Ci still i.i.d.
but with common distribution function F and density f of the form

f(x) ~ (1 -.l.)~ 'P C) + .l.h(x). (3.5.2)

Here h is the density of the gross errors and .\ is the probability of making a gross error.
This corresponds to,

Xi Xt with probability 1 - A
Y; with probability .l.

where Y; has density h(y - 1') and (Xt, Y;) are ij.d. Note that this implies the possibly
unreasonable assumption that committing a gross error is independent of the value of X .
Further assumptions that are commonly made are that h has a particular fonn, for example.
h = ~(7 <p (:(7) where K :: 1 or more generally that h is an unknown density symmetric
about O. Then the gross error model issemiparametric, P. = {f (. - 1') : f satisfies (3.5.2)
for some h such that h(x) = h(-x) for all x}. p(",j) E P. iff X" ... ,Xn are i.i.d. with
common density f(x - 1'), where f satisfies (3.5.2). The advantage of this formulation is
that jJ- remains identifiable. That is, it is the center of symmetry of p(Po,J) for all such P.
Unfortunately, the assumption that h is itself symmetric about 0 seems patently untenable
for gross errors. However, if we drop the symmetry assumption, we encounter one of
the basic difficulties in formulating robustness in situation (b). Without h symmetric the
quantity jJ- is not a parameter, so it is unclear what we are estimating. That is, it is possible
to have PC""f,j = PC""f,) for 1'1 of 1'2 (Problem 3.5.18). ISi'1 or 1'2 our goal? On the
other hand, in situation (c), we do not need the symmetry assumption. We return to these
issues in Chapter 6.
192 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

The sensitivity curve


~ ~

At this point we ask: Suppose that an estimate T(X 1 , ... , X n ) = B(F). where F is
the empirical d.L. is appropriate for the symmetric location model, P, in particular, has the
plug-in property, (}(PU.I.,j)) = J.1 for all p(/l,f) E P. How sensitive is it to the presence of
gross errors among XI, . .. ,Xn ? An interesting way of studying this due to Tukey (1972)
and Hampel (1974) is the sensitivity curve defined as follows for plug-in estimates (which ,,

, are well defined for all sample sizes n).


We start by defining the sensitivity curve for general plug-in estimates. Suppose that
X ~ P and that 0 ~ O(P) is a parameter. The empirical plug-in estimate of 0 is 0 = O(P)
~
~ ~
I,
where P is the empirical probability distribution. See Section 2.1.2. The sensitivity curoe
~

,. of () is defined as
, ~ ~ ~

SC(x; 0) = n[O(xl, . .. ,X,,-l, x) - O(Xl' .. . , X"_l )J,


where Xl, ... 1 Xn-l represents an observed sample of size n-l from P and X represents an
observation that (potentially) comes from a distribution different from P. We are interested
in the shape of the sensitivity curve, not its location. In our examples we shall, therefore,
shift the sensitivity curve in the horizontal or vertical direction whenever this produces
more transparent formulas. Often this is done by fixing Xl," ., Xn-l as an "ideal" sample
~

of size n - 1 for which the estimator () gives us the right value of the parameter and then
we see what the introduction of a potentially deviant nth observation X does to the value of
~

O.
We return to the location problem with e equal to the mean J.L = E(X). Because
~ ~

the estimators we consider are location invariant, that is, (}(X 1 ,., X n ) - J.L = (}(X l -
1', ... , X" -1'), .od because E(X, -1') = 0, we take I' ~ 0 without loss of generality.
Now fix Xl!'" ,Xn-l so that their mean has the ideal value zero. This is equivalent to
shifting the Be vertically to make its value at x = 0 equal to zero. See Problem 3.5.14.
Then

SC( X; X-) =n (Xl+ ... +X"_I+X) = x.


n
Thus, the sample mean is arbitrarily sensitive to gross errOf-a large gross error can throw
the mean off entirely. Are there estimates that are less sensitive? ~

A classical estimate of location based on the order statistics is the sample median X
defined by
~

X X(k+l) ifn~2k+1

!(X(k) + X(k+l)) ifn = 2k


where X (I)' ... , X(n) are the order statistics, that is, Xl, ... , X n ordered from smallest to
largest. See (2.1.16), (2.1.17), .od Problem 2.2.32.
The sample median can be motivated as an estimate of location on various grounds.

(i) It is the empirical plug-in estimate of the population median v (Problem 3.5.4), and
it splits the sample into two equal halves.
Section 3.5 Nondecision Theoretic Criteria 193

(ii) In the symmetric location model (3.5.1), v coincides with f-L and x is an empirical
plug-in estimate of f-L.

(iii) The sample median is the MLE when we assume the common density f(x) of the
errors {cd in (3.5.1) is the Laplace (double exponential) density

1
f(x) = -exp{-l x l/7},
27
a density having substantially heavier tails than the normaL See Problems 2.2.32 and
3.5.9.

The sensitivity curve of the median is as follows:


If, say, n = 2k + 1 is odd and the median of Xl, ... ,Xn_l = (X(k) + X(ktl)/2 = 0,
we obtain

SC(x; x) nx(k) = _nx(k-+-l) for < x(k)


x

nx for x(k) < x <x(k-+-I)


nx(k+l) for x> x(k+l)

where xCI) < ... < X(n-l) are the ordered XI, ... , Xn-I.

SC(x) SC(x)

x x

Figure 3.5.1. The sensitivity curves of the mean and median.

Although the median behaves well when gross errors are expected, its perfonnance at
the nonnal model is unsatisfactory in the sense that its variance is about 57% larger than the
variance of X. The sensitivity curve in Figure 3.5.1 suggests that we may improve matters
by constructing estimates whose behavior is more like that of the mean when X is near Ji.
A class of estimates providing such intermediate behavior and including both the mean and
194 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

the median has ~en known since the eighteenth century. Let 0 <Q < 4. We define the a
trimmed mean, Xa, by

Xu = X([no]+l) + ... + X(n-[nuj) (3.5.3)


n - 2[nnl
where [na] is the largest integer < nO' and X(1) < ... < X (n) are the ordered observations.
That is, we throw out the "outer" [na] observations on either side and take the average of
the rest. The estimates can be justified on plug-in grounds (see Problem 3.5.5). For more
sophisticated arguments see Huber (1981). Note that if Q = 0, Xu = X. whereas as Q i ~,
- ~

Xa X. For instance, suppose we take as our data the differences in Table 3.5.1.
-----Jo

If [na] = [(n - l)Q] and the trimmed mean of Xl, ... l Xn-l is zero, the sensitivity
CUIve of an Q trimmed mean is sketched in Figure 3.5.2. (The middle portion is the line
y = x(1 - 2[nn]/n)-I.)

SC(x)

X
x(n-[naJ)

Figure 3.5.2. The sensitivity curve of the trimmed mean.


,,
Intuitively we expect that if there are no gross errors, that is. f = <p. the mean is better
than any trimmed mean with a > 0 including the median, which corresponds approxi-
mately to a = 4.
This can be verified in tenns of asymptotic variances (MSEs}-see
,
;
Problem 5.4.1. However, the sensitivity curve calculation points to an equally intuitive

I conclusion. If f is symmetric about 0 but has "heavier tails" (see Problem 3.5.8) than the
Gaussian density. for example, the Laplace density, f(x) = 4e-'x',or even more strikingly
I the Cauchy, f(x) = 1/11"(1 + x 2 ), then the trimmed means for a > 0 and even the median
!
can be much better than the mean. infinitely better in the case of the Cauchy-see Problem
5.4.1 again.
Which a should we choose in the trimmed mean? There seems to be no simple answer.
The range 0.10 < a < 0.20 seems to yield estimates that provide adequate protection
against the proportions of gross errors expected and yet perform reasonably well when
sampling is from the nonnal distribution. See Andrews, Bickel, Hampel. Haber, Rogers,
and Tukey (1972). There has also been some research into procedures for which a is
i chosen using the observations. For a discussion of these and other forms of "adaptation."
I,
,. see Jaeckel (1971), Huber (1972), and Hogg (1974).

,
Section 3.5 Nondecision Theoretic Criteria 195

Gross errors or outlying data points affect estimates in a variety of situations. We next
consider two estimates of the spread in the population as well as estimates of quantiles;
other examples will be given in the problems. If we are interested in the spread of the
values in a population, then the variance 0"2 or standard deviation 0- is typically used. A
fairly common quick and simple alternative is the IQR (interquartile range) defined as
T = X.75 - X.25, where Xu has 100Ct percent of the values in the population on its left
(fonnally, X n is any value such that P( X < x n ) > Ct, P( X > xO') > 1 - Ct). Xu is called
a Ctth quantile and X.75 and X.25 are called the upper and lower quartiles. The IQR is often
calibrated so that it equals 0" in the N(/-l, 0"2) model. Because T = 2 x (.674)0", the scale
measure used is 0.742(x.75 - X.25).
Example 3.5.1. Spread. Let B(P) = Var(X) = 0"2 denote the variance in a population and
let XI, ... , X n denote a sample from that population. Then a~ = 11, - I L:~ I (Xi - X)2
is the empirical plug-in estimate of 0- 2 . To simplify our expression we shift the horizontal
axis so that L~-/ Xi = O. Write xn = 11,-1 L~ 1 Xi = 11,-1x, then

SC(X; &2)

It is clear that a:~ is very sensitive to large outlying Ixi values. Similarly,
SC(X; &)

(3.5.4)

where the approximation is valid for X fixed, n ---+ 00 (Problem 3.5.10). 0


Example 3.5.2. Quantiles and the lQR. Let B(P) = X o deaote a ath quantile of the
distribution of X, 0 < 0: < 1, and let Xo; denote the o:th sample quantile (see 2.1.16).
If no: is an integer, say k, the nth sample quantile is Xo; = ~ [X(k) + X(k+l)]' and at
sample size n - 1, Xo: = x(k), where x(t) < ... < x(n-I) are the ordered Xl, ... ,Xn-I,
196 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

thus, for 2 < k < n - 2,

SC(x; 1'0) ~[Xlk-l) _ xlk)] x < Xlk-I)


2 ' -
1 Ix _ xlkl] Xlk-I) < x < xlk+11 (3.5.5)
2 ' --
1 [xlk+11 _ xlkl] x> xlk+1)
2 ' -

Clearly, xa: is not sensitive to outlying x's.


Next consider the sample lQR
~ ~ ~

T=X.75 -X.25

Then we can write

SC(x; i) = SC(x; 1'75) - SC(x; 1'.25)

and the sample IQR is robust with respect to outlying gross errors x. o
Remark 3.5.1. The sensitivity of the parameter B(F) to x can be measured by the influence
function, which is defined by

IF(x;O,F) = limIF,(x;O,F)
dO
where

I,(x; 0, F) = <-1[0((1 - <)F + <t.,) - O(F)]


and~:z; is the distribution function of point mass at x (.6. x (t) = I[t < xl). It is easy to see
,, that (Problem 3.5.15)

~' ~

where F n - 1 denotes the empirical distribution based on Xl, .. ,Xn-l. We will return to
the influence function in Volume II. It plays an important role in functional expansions of
,.,,:

!
r:
i
:
'.
estimates.
Discussion. Other aspects of robustness, in particular the breakdown point, have been
studied extensively and a number of procedures proposed and implemented. Unfortunately
II
,~i these procedures tend to be extremely demanding computationally, although this difficulty
appears to be being overcome lately. An exposition of this point of view and some of the
~.
earlier procedures proposed is in Hampel, Ronchetti, Rousseuw, and Stabel (1983).
Summary. We discuss briefly nondecision theoretic considerations for selecting proce-
dures including interpretability, and computability. Most of the section focuses on robust-
ness, discussing the difficult issues of identifiability. The rest of our very limited treatment
focuses on the sensitivity curve as illustrated in the mean, trimmed mean, median, and other
procedures.

Ii
I~
Section 3.6 Problems and Complements 197

3.6 PROBLEMS AND COMPLEMENTS


Problems for Section 3.2

1. Show that if Xl, ... 1 X n is a N(B, (72) sample and 71" is the improper prior 71"(0) = 1,
o e
E = R. then the improper Bayes rule for squared error loss is 6"* (x) = X.

2. Let X I, ... ,Xn be the indicators of n Bernoulli trials with success probability O. Sup-
pose 1(0, 0) is the quadratic loss (0 - 0)' and that the prinf7r(O) is the beta. (3(r, s), density.
~ -
Find the Bayes estimate 0B of 0 and write it as a weighted average wOo + (1 ~ w)X of the
- ~

mean 00 of the prior and the sample mean X = Sin. Show that OB ~ (S + 1)/(n+2) for
the uniform prior.

3. In Problem 3.2.2 preceeding, give the MLE of the Bernoulli variance q(0) = 0(1 - 0)
~ ~

and give the Bayes estimate of q(O). Check whether q(OB) = E(q(IJ) I x), where OB is the
Bayes estimate of O.

4. In the Bernoulli Problem 3.2.2 with unifonn prior on the probabilility of success O. we
found that (S + 1)/(n + 2) is the Bayes rule. In some studies (see Section 6.4.3), the
parameter A = 01(1 - 0), which is called the odds ratio (for success), is preferred to 0,
lf we put a (improper) uniform prior on A, under what condition on S does the Bayes rule
exist and what is the Bayes rule?
5. Suppose IJ ~ 71'(0), (X I 0 = 0) ~ p(x I 0).
(a) Show that the joint density of X and 0 is

f(x,O) = p(x I 0)71'(0) = c(x)7f(0 , x)

where c(x) =.r 7f(0)p(x I O)dO.


(h) Let 1(0, 0) = (0 - o)'lw(O) for some weight function w(O) > 0,0 E e. Show that
the Bayes rule is

where
fo(x,O) = p(x 1 0)[7f(0)lw(0)]/c
and
c= JJ p(x I 0)[7f(0)/w(0)]dOdx

is assumed to be finite. That is, if 71' and 1 are changed to 0(0)71'(0) and 1(0,0)/0(0),
a(O) > 0, respectively, the Bayes rule does not change.
Hint: See Problem 1.4.24.
(c) In Example 3.2.3, change the loss function to 1(0, 0) = (0 - a)' jBQ(1- O)P. Give
the conditions needed for the posterior Bayes risk to be finite and find the Bayes rule.
6. Find the Bayes risk r(7f, J) ofJ(x) = X in Example 3.2.1. Consider the relative risk
e( J, 71') = R(7f) /r( 71', J), where R( 71') is the Bayes risk. Compute the limit of e( J, 71') as
198 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

(a) T -+ 00, (b) n ---; 00, (e) a 2 -+ 00.

7. For the following problems, compute the posterior risks of the possible actions and give
the optimal Bayes decisions when x = O.
(a) Problem 1.3.I(d);
(b) Problem 1.3.2(d)(i) and (ii);
(c) Problem 1.3.19(c).
8. Suppose tbat N lo ... N, given 0 = B are multinomial M(n, B). B = (B" ... ,B,)T. and
that 0 has the Dirichlet distribution D( a). a = (a" ... , a r )T, defined in Problem 1.2.15.
Let q( 0) = L:;=l CjUj , where CI, ... , Cr are given constants.
(a) If I(B, a) = [q(B)-a]', find the Bayes decision mle o' and the minimum conditional
Bayes risk r(o'(x) I x).
Hint: If 0 ~ D(a), then E(O)) = aj/ao, Var(Oj) = aj(ao - aj)/a5(ao + 1), and
Cov{8j ,9j ) = -aiO:'j/a5(aa + 1), where ao = L:J=l Qj. (Use these results, do not
derive them.)
(b) When the loss function is I(B, a) = (q(B) - a)' / nj~, Bj , find necessary and
sufficient conditions under which the Bayes risk is finite and under these conditions find
the Bayes rule.
(c) We want to estimate the vector (B" ... , B,) with loss function I( B, a) = Lj~, (Bj -

aj)2. Find the Bayes decision rule.


9. Bioequivalence trials are used to test whether a generic drug is, to a close approximation,
equivalent to a name-brand drug. Let 0 = ftc - ft B be the difference in mean effect of the
generic and name-brand drugs. Suppose we have a sample Xl, . . " X n of differences in the
I, effect of generic and name-brand effects fora certain drug, where E(X) = O. A regulatory
!" agency specifies a number f > a such that if f) E (-E, E), then the generic and brand-name
,
drugs are, by definition, bioequivalent. On the basis of X = (X I, ... ,Xn ) we want to
decide whether or not 0 E (-e,E). Assume that given f), Xl, ... ,Xu are Li.d. N{O,O'5),
where 0'5is known, and that 9 is random with aN(rlO, 76) distribution.
i: There are two possible actions:
I
a a{::} Bioequivalent
a 1 {::} Not Bioequivalent
,i with losses I( B, 0) and I( B, 1). Set

.\(B) = I(B,O) - I(B, I)


= difference in loss of acceptance and rejection of bioequivalence. Note that ),(0) should
be negative when 0 E (-E, E) and positive when f)
1998) is
1. (-E, E). One such function (Lindley, I
.\(B) = r - exp { - 2~' B' } , c2 > 0
~'

(.
I
j
I,

l
Section 3.6 Problems and Complements 199

where 0 < r < 1. Note that ,.\(.-) = 0 implies that r satisfies

1 2
logr = --(
2c'
This is an example with two possible actions 0 and 1 where l((), 0) and l((), 1) are not
constant. Any two functions with difference "\(8) are possible loss functions at a = 0 and
I.
(a) Show that the Bayes rule is equivalent to

"Accept biocquivalence if E(>'(O) I X = x) < 0" (3.6.1)


and show that (3.6.1) is equivalent to
, ,
"Accept bioequivalence if[E(O I x)' < (T6(n) + c'){log(rg(~)+,,) + ~}"
where

Hint: See Example 3.2.1.


(b) It is proposed that the preceding prior is "uninformative" if it has 170 = 0 and it
large ("76 ---+ 00"). Discuss the preceding decision rule for this "prior."
(c) Discuss the behavior of the preceding decision rule for large n ("n ---+ 00"). Con-
sider the general case (a) and the specific case (b).
10. For the model defined by (3.2.16) and (3.2.17). find
(a) the linear Bayes estimate of ~l.
(b) the linear Bayes estimate of fl..
(c) Is the assumption that the ~ 's are nonnal needed in (a) and (b)?

Problems for Section 3.3


1. In Example 3.3.2 show that L(x, 0, v) > ?r/(l -?r) is equivalent to T > t.
2. Suppose 9 , S x T ~ R. A point (xo, yo) is a saddle point of 9 if
g(xo, Yo) = sup g(x, Yo) = inf g(xo, y).
S T

Suppose S and T are subsets of Rm, RP, respectively, (Xv, Yo) is in the interior of S x T,
and 9 is twice differentiable.
(a) Show that a necessary condition for (xo, Yo) to be a saddle point is that, representing
x = (Xl, ... ,Xm),y = (YI,- .. ,Yp),
{}g {}g
-{} (Xo,Yo) = -{} (Xo,Yo) = 0,
Xi Yj
200 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

and

8'g (x ) < 0 8'g(xo,Yo) > 0


8 X a 8 Xb 0, Yo - , 8 8
Yc Yd
-

foraHI < i,a,b < m, 1 <j,c,d< p.


(b) Suppose Sm = (x: Xi > 0,1 < i < m, L:;" 1 Xi ~ l},thesimplex,andg(x,y) ~
L~l 12.:;=1 CijXiYj with XE 8 m , y ESp. Show that the von Neumann minimax theorem
is equivalent to the existence of a saddle point for any twice differentiable g. I
3. Suppose e = {Bo, Bd. A = {O, I}, and that the mndel is regnlar. Suppose i
j

I(Bi,i) =0, I(Bi,j)=Wij>O, i,j=O,l, iij.


Let Lx (Bo, B1 ) ~ p(X, B1 ) Ip(X, Bo) and suppose that Lx (B o, BIl has a continuous distri-
bution under both P Oo and P BI Show that
(a) For every 0 < 7f < 1, the test rule 1511" given by
o.(X) = 1 if Lx (B o, B1 ) > (l-.)w",
- 1rWlO

= 0 otherwise

is Bayes against a prior such that PIB = B1 ] = ,,= 1 - PIB = Bo], and
(b) There exists 0 < 11"* < 1 such that the prior 1r* is least favorable against 61f~' that
is, the conclusion of von Neumann's theorem holds.
,, Hint: Show that there exists (a unique) 1r* so that

R(Bo,o ) =R(B1 ,0 ).

4. Let S ~ 8(n,0).1(0, a) ~ (0 - a)', o(S) = X = Sin, and

1
o'(S) = (S + 2 .;n)/(n + .;n).
;
(a) Show that 0' has constant risk and is Bayes for the beta, fJ( .;n12, .;n12), prior.
Thus. &* is minimax.
If" Hint: See Problem 3.2.2.
L
I

:
(b) Show that limn_ooIR(O, o')IR(O, 0) > 1 for 0 i ~; and show that this limit
,
I' equals 1 when B = ~.
(-
f,
5. Let X" ... , X n be i.i.d. N(I',<7') and 1(<7', d) = (!- _ I)'.
(a) Show that if I' is known to be 0

,
J'(X1 , ... ,Xn ) = n: 2 I>l
'!,
"
is minimax.
Section 3_6 Problems and Complements 201

(b) If I' ~ 0, show that 0' is unifonnly best among all rules of the form oc(X) =
CL Xl Conclude that the MLE is inadmissible.
(e) Show that if I' is unknown, o(X) ~ n~l L(Xi - X)' is best among all rules
of the form oc(X) = c L(Xi - X)' and, hence, that both the MLE and the estimate
8' = (n - 1)-1 L(Xi - X)' are inadmissible.
Hint: (a) Consider a gamma prior on 0 = 1/<7'. See Problem 1.2.12. (c) Use (B.3.29).
6. Let Xl, ... , X k be independent with means f.tj, ... , Jlk, respectively, where
(Ill, ... , f-tk) = (Il?l'"'' J1.?,), jl~ < ... < /12
is a known set of values, and iI, ... , ik is an arbitrary unknown permutation of 1, ... ,k.
LetA = {(iI, ... ,j.) , Permutations of I, ... ,k}

Ii), ... , ik), (jl, ... ,j. = L I(i, < im,j, > jm).
l,tn

Show that the minimax rule is to take


o(X 1, ... , X k ) = (R l , ... , Rk)
where Rj is the rank of Xi, that is, Rj = L~ I I(XI < Xi)'
Hint: Consider the uniform prior on permutations and compute the Bayes rule by show-
ing that the posterior risk of a pennutation (i l , ... , ik) is smaller than that of (i'l"'" i~),
h
were t,j = tj, / a, b,a < b"
. J. -" .., = ttl,
, ttl = 'lb.1. b
. an d R a < R b.

7. Show that X has a Poisson (.\) distribution and 1(.\, a) = (.\ - a? 1.\. Then X is
nurnmax.
Hint: Consider the gamma, f(k- l , 1), prior. Let k --. 00.

8. Let Xi beindependentN(I'i,I), 1 <i< k, I' = (I'I'''',I'kf. Write X -


(X"", , Xk)T, d = (d), .. . , dk)T. Show that if


1(1', d) = L(d, -"i)'
i=l

then o(X) = X is minimax.


Remark: Stein (1956) has shown that if k > 3, X is no longer unique minimax. For
instance,
o'(X) = (1- ~~n X
is also minimax and R(I', 0') < R(I',o) for alII'. See Volume II.
9. Show that if (N), ... , N k ) has a multinomial, M (n, PI, ... ,P.), distribution, 0 < Pi <
1, 1 < j < k, then r: is minimax for the loss function

l(p,d) = t
j=l
(di - Pi)'
Pjqj

where qj ~ 1 - Pi, 1 <j < k.


202 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

Hint: Consider Dirichlet priors on (PI, ... , Pk- d with density defined in Problem
1.2.15. See also Problem 3.2.8.
10. Let Xi(i = 1, ... , n) be i.i.d. with unknown distribution F. For a given x we want to
estimate the proportion F(x) of the population to the left of x. Show that

o~ No. of Xi < X 1 + 1
v'n 1+ v'n 2(1+ v'n)
is minimax for estimating F(x) = P(X i < x) with squared error loss.
Hint: Consider the risk function of o. See Problem 3.3.4.
11. Let X" ... , X n be independent N(I', 1). Define

- d - d
X+-ifX <--
v'n v'n
- d
OiflXI < v'n
- d - d
X - - i f X> - .
v'n v'n
(a) Show that the risk (for squared error loss) E( v'n(o(X) - 1'2 of these estimates is
bounded for all nand 1'.
(b) How does the risk of these estimates compare to that of X?
I:
,
12. Suppose that given 6 ~ B, X has a binomial, B(n, B), distribution. Show that the
Bayes estimate of 0 for the Kullback-Leibler loss function lp(B, a) is the posterior mean
E(6 I X).
13. Suppose that given 6 = B = (B ... ,BO)T, X = (X"", ,Xo)T has a multinomial,
M(n,B), distribution. Let the loss "function be the Kullback-Leibler divergence lp(B,a)
and let the prior be the uniform prior
0-1
1r(B" ... , BO- l) ~ (k - I)!, Bj > 0, LB= j 1.
;=1
Show that the Bayes estimate is (Xi + l)j(n + k).
14. Let K(po, q) denote the K LD (Kullback-Leiblerdivergence) between the densities Po
, and q and define the Bayes KLD between P = {Po : BEe} and q as

~ k(q,1r) = J K(po,q)1r(B)dB.

Show that the marginal density of X.


I
I,
,
!
p(x) = J po(x)1r(B)dB,
1,

I:
I
ir'z
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _.....
Section 3.6 Problems and Complements 203

minimizes k( q. 7f) and that the minimum is

I(J,x - f [E, {log PB(X)}]


=. p(X) K(O)d(J.

IO,X is called the mutual information between 0 and X.


Hint: k(q, K) - k(p, K) = J [Eo {log ~i~i}] K((J)d(J > a by Jensen's inequality.
15. Jeffrey's "Prior." A density proportional to VJp(O) is called Jeffrey's prior, It is
often improper. Show that in theN(O, ,,~), N(I"o, 0) and B(n, 0) cases, Jeffrey's priors are
proportional to 1, 0- 1 , and O-~ (1 - O)-!, respectively. Give the Bayes rules for squared
error in these three cases.

Problems for Section 3,4


1. Let X I, ... , X n be the indicators of n Bernoulli trials with success probability B. Show
that X is an UMVU estimate of O.
2. Let A =R. We shall say a loss function is convex, if I(O,aao + (1 - alai) <
al(O, ao) + (1 - a )I( 0, a,), for any ao, a" (J, a < a < 1. Suppose that there is an unbiased
estimate J of q((J) and that T(X) is sufficient. Show that if 1(0, a) is convex and J'(X) =
E( J(X) I I(X, then R(O, J') < R( (J, J).
Hint: Use Jensen's inequality: If 9 is a convex function and X is a random variable,
then E(g(X) > g(E(X.
3. Equivariance. Let X ,. . . , p( x, 0) with 0 E e c R, suppose that assumptions I and
II hold and that h is a monotone increasing differentiable function from e onto h(8).
Reparametrize the model by setting ry = h(O) and let q(x, ry) = p(x, h-1(ry)) denote the
model in the new parametrization.
(a) Show that if Ip(O) and Iq(fJ) denote the Fisher information in the two parametriza-
tions, then

That is, Fisher infonnation is not equivariant under increasing transformations of the pa-
rameter.
(b) Equivariance of the Fisher Information Bound. Let Bp(O) and Bq(ry) denote the
information inequality lower bound ('Ij;'? /1 as in (3.4.12) for the two parametrizations
p(x, 0) and q(x, ry). Show that B q(ry) = Bp(h-, (ry); that is, the Fisher information lower
bound is equivariant.
4. Prove Proposition 3.4.4.
S. Suppose X I, ... , X n are Ll.d. N(I", ,,2) with I' - 1"0 known. Show that
(a) cr5 = n- 1 E: 1 (Xi - J-.tO)2 is a UMVU estimate of a 2
(b) &'8 is inadmissible.
Ii
,

204 Measures of Performance Chapter 3


I
Hint: See Problem 3.3.5(b).
(c) if 110 is not known and the true distribution of X t is N(Ji, ( 2), P. =f- P,o, find the bias
o f ao'
~2

6. Show that assumption I implies that if A - {x : p(x, 0) > OJ docsn't depend on 0, then
for any set E, Pe(E) = 1 for some 0 if and only if Pe(E) = 1 forallO.
~

7. In Example 3.4.4, compute Var(O) using each ofthe three methods indicated.

8. Establish the claims of Example 3.4.8.


~ ~

9. Show that 8 = (Y - ZDf3)T(y - ZDf3)/(n - p) is an unbiased estimate of (72 in the


2

linear regression model of Section 2.2.


~ ~ ~

10. Suppose (J is UMVU for estimating fJ. Let a and b be constants. Show that ,\ = a + bB
is UMVU for estimating ,\ = a + bOo

11. Suppose Yl , .,. ,Yn are independent Poisson random variables with E(Y'i) = !Ji where
Jli = exp{ Ct + (3Zi} depends on the levels Zi of a covariate; Ct,13 E R. For instance, Zi
could be the level of a drug given to the ith patient with an infectious disease and Vi could
denote the number of infectious agents in a given unit of blood from the ith patient 24 hours
after the drug was administered.

(a) Write the model for Yl , ... , Y n in two-parameter canonical exponential form and
give the sufficient statistic.

(b) Let 0 = (a, {3) T Compute I( 9) for the model in (a) and then find the lower bound
a
~

on the variances of unbiased estimators and {J of a and (J.


,
,,
(c) Suppose that Zi = log[i/(n + 1)1, i = 1, ... , n. Find lim n- 11(9) as n ~ 00, and
a
~

give the limit of n times the lower bound on the variances of and (J.
Hint: Use the integral approximation to sums.
i
12. Let X" ... , X n be a sample from the beta, B(O, 1), distribution.

(a) Find the MLE of 1/0. Is it unbiased? Does it achieve the infonnation inequality
lower bound?
,,
(b) Show that X is an unbiased estimate of 0/(0 + 1), Does X achieve the infonnation ,

inequality lower bound?

13. Let F denote the class of densities with mean 0- 1 and variance 0- 2 (0 > 0) that satisfy
the conditions of the information inequality. Show that a density that minimizes the Fisher I
infonnation over F is f(x, 0) = Oc"I(x > 0). I,
Hint: Consider T(X) = X in Theorem 3.4.1.
14. Show that if (Xl,' .. , X n ) is a sample drawn without replacement from an unknown
I
finite population {Xl, ... ,XN }, then

(a) X is an unbiased estimate of x = ~ L~ 1 Xi


Section 3.6 Problems and Complements 205

(b) The variance of X is given by (3.4.4).

15. Suppose UI, ... , UN are as in Example 3.4.1 and Uj is retained independently of all
other Uj with probability 1rj where 'Lf 11rj = n. Show that if M is the expected sample
size, then
N
E( M) ~ L 1r J
~ n.
j=1

16. Suppose the sampling scheme given in Problem 15 is employed with 'Trj _ ~. Show
that the resulting unbiased Horvitz-Thompson estimate for the population mean has vari-
ance strictly larger than the estimate obtained by taking the mean of a sample of size n
taken without replacement from the population.
17. Stratified Sampling. (See also Problem 1.3.4.) Suppose the Uj can be relabeled into
strata {xkd, 1 < i < h, k = 1, .", K, 'L~ 1 h = N. Let 7fk = ~ and suppose
7fk = :/i,1 < k < K.

(a) Take samples with replacement of -size mk -from stratum k = {Xkl, .. ,Xkl.l;,} and
fonn the corresponding sample averages Xl, ... , XK. Define

K
~ 1", _
X =K ~1rkXk.
k=l

Show that X is unbiased and if X is the mean of a simple random sample without replace-
ment from the population then
- -
VarX<VarX
with equality iff Xk. = 1;;1 E1 k I Xki doesn't depend on k for all k such that 1Tk > o.
(b) Show that the inequality between Var X and Var X continues to hold if 7,,5-11 >
~ - ~ for all k, even for sampling without replacement in each stratum.

18. Let X have a binomial, B(n,p), distribution. Show that G


is not unbiasedly es-
timable. More generally only polynomials of degree n in p are unbiasedly estimable.
-
19. Show that X k given by (3.4.6) is (a) unbiased and (b) has smaller variance than X- if
b < 2 Cov(U,X)/Var(U).
20. Suppose X is distributed accordihg to {p. : 0 E ec R} and 1r is a prior distribution
for (J such that E((J2) < 00.
(a) Show that o(X) is both an unbiased estimate of (J and the Bayes estimate with
respect to quadratic loss, if and only if, P[o(X) = 91 = 1.
(b) Deduce that if p. = N(O, ,,~). X is not II Bayes estimate for any prior 1r.
(c) Explain how it is possible if Po is binomial, B(n, 8), that ~ is a Bayes estimate for
O.
206 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

Hint: Given E(ii(X) 19) ~ 9, E(9 I X) ~ ii(X) compute E(ii(X) - 9)'-


21. Prove Theorem 3.4.4.
Hint: It is equivalent to show that, for all adx 1,

Var(a T 6) > aT ((9)I-I(9);;/(9)a


[ T (9)a]T I-I (9)[ T (9)a].

-T ,""
Note that 1/J (9)a ~ 'i7 E9(a 9) and apply Theorem 3.4.3.
F

22. Regularity Conditions are Needed for the Information Inequality. Let X ~ U(O, B)
be the uniform distribution on (0, B). Note that logp(x, B) is differentiable fat anB > x,
that is, with probability I for each B, and we can thus define moments of 8/8B log p(x, B).
Show that, however,

(ij) Vat (:0 logp(X, B) ~ and the information bound is infinite. Yet show
(iii) 2X is unbiased for eand has finite variance.
,

Problems for Section 35 I


1. If n = 2k is even, give and plot the sensitivity curve of the median. 1
2. If a = 0.25 and net =k is an integer, use (3.5.5) to plot the sensitivity curve of the
IQR.
3. If a = 0.25 and (n - l)a is an integer, give and plot the sensitivity curves of the lower
quartile X.25, the upper quartile X.75' and the IQR.
~

4. Show that the sample median X is an empirical plug-in estimate of the population
median v.
5. Show that the a trimmed mean XCII. is an empirical plug-in estimate of

Here J xdF(x) denotes Jxp(x)dx in the continuous case and L:xp(x) in the discrete
case.
6. An estimate J(X) is said to be shift or translation equivariant if, for all X!, ... 1 X n1 C,
Section 3.6 Problems and Complements 207

It is antisymmetric if for all Xl, ... , In

- --
-..
(a) Show that X, X, X a arc translation equivariant and antisymmetric.
(b) Suppose Xl, ... , X n is a sample from a population with dJ. F(x - J-L) where J-L
is unknown and Xi - ,1, is symmetrically distributed about O. Show that if 15 is translation
equivariant and antisymmetric and E o(15(X exists and is finite, then

- -- -..
(i.e., J is an unbiased estimate of 11,). Deduce that X, Xu, X are unbiased estimates of the
center of symmetry of a symmetric distribution.
7. The Hodges-Lehmann (location) estimate XHL is defined to be the median of the
1n(n + 1) pairwise averages ~(Xi + Xj), i < j. Its properties are similar to those of
the trimmed mean. It has the advantage that there is no trimming proportion Q that needs
to be subjectively specified.
(a) Suppose n = 5 and the "ideal" ordered sample of size n ~ 1 = 4 is -1.03, -.30,
.30,1.03 (these are expected values of four N(O, I)-order statistics). For x > .3, plot the
sensitivity curves of the mean, median, trimmed mean with a = 1/4, and the Hodges-
Lehmann estimate.
(b) Show that xH L is translation equivariant and antisymmetric. (See Problem 3.5.6.)
~

8. The Huber estimate X k is defined implicitly as the solution of the equation

where 0 < k < 00, '& is an estimate of scale, and


xiflxl < k
kifx > k
-kifx<-k.

One reasonable choice for k is k = 1.5 and for (j is,

(7= moo IX. - XI/0.67.


1 <i< n
Show that
(a) k = 00 corresponds to X, k --t 0 to the median.
208 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

(b) Ifa is replaced by a known 0"0, thenXk is the MLEofB when Xl, ... ,Xn arei.i.d.
with density fo((." - O)/ao) where

fo(x) for Ixl <k

for Ixl > k,

with k and connected through


i
2<p(k) _ 24>(-k) ~ e
k 1-
!

(e) Xk exists and is unique when k > O. Use a fixed known 0"0 in place of Ci.
(d) Xk is translation equivariant and antisymmetric (see Problem 3.5.6).
(e) If k < 00, then limlxj---->00 SC(x; Xk) is a finite constant.
9. If f() and g(.) are two densities with medians v zero and identical scale parameters 7,
we say that g(.) has heavier tails than f(-) if g(x) is above f(x) for Ixllarge. In the case of
the Cauchy density, the standard deviation does not exist; thus, we will use the IQR scale
parameter T = X.75 - X.25. In what follows adjust f and 9 to have v = 0 and 'T = 1.
(a) Find the set of Ixl where g(Ixl) > <p(lxl) for 9 equal to the Laplace and Cauchy
[, densitiesgL(x) = (2ry)-1 exp{ -Ixl/ry} and gc(x) = b[b2 + x 2 ]-1 /rr.
(b) Find thetml probabilities P(IXI > 2), P(IXI > 3) and P(IXI > 4) for the nonnal,
,.
ii.
,
Laplace, and Cauchy distributions.
(c) Show that go(x)/<p(x) is of order exp{x2 } as Ixl ~ 00.
~
10. Suppose L:~-i Xi = O. Show that SC(x, iTn ) ~ (2a)-1 (x 2 - a 2 ) as n ~ 00.
,
11. Let JJo be a hypothesized mean for a certain population. The (student) t-ratio is defined
as 1= v'n(x -I'o)/s, where S2 = (n - 1)-1 L:~ 1(Xi - x}2. Let 1'0 = 0 and choose
the ideal sample Xl, ... 1 Xn-l to have sample mean zero. Find the limit of the sensitivity
curve of t as
(a) Ixl ~ 00, n is fixed, and
(b) n ~ 00, X is fixed.
12. For the ideal sample of Problem 3.5.7(a), plot the sensitivity curve of
(a) iTn , and
(b) the I-ratio of Problem 3.5.11.
""
This problem may be done on the computer.
"'"
, 13. Location Parameters. Let X be a random variable with continuous distribution function
F. The functional 0 = Ox = O(F) is said to be scale and shift (translation) equivariant
\.
;~

!~

t
Section 3.6 Problems and Complements 209

if (Ja+bX = a + bex It is antisymmetric if (J x :;:... (j-x. Let Y denote a random variable


with continuous distribution function G. X is said to be stochastically smaller than Y if
F(t) ~ P(X < t) > P(Y < t) = G(t) for all t E R. In this case we write X "< Y. 8
" Y ::::} Ox < ()y. If 0 is scale and shift equivariant,
is said to be order preserving if X <
antisymmctric, and ordcr preserving, it is called a location parameter.
(a) Show that if F is symmetric about c and () is a location parameter, then ()(F) = c.
(b) Show that the mean Ji, median v, and trimmed population mean JiOl (see Problem
3.5.5) are location parameters.

(e) Let Ji{k) be the solution to the equation E ( t/Jk (X :;t.t )) = 0, where T is the median
of the distributioo of IX - vl/O.67 and tPk is defined in Problem 3.5.8. Show that J1.(k) is a
location parameter.
(d) For 0 < " < 1, let v" = v,,(F) = !(xa + XI-"), v(F) = inf{va(F) : 0 < " <
I/2} andi/(F) =sup{v,,(F): 0 <" < 1/2}. Show that v" is a location parameter and
show that any location parameter 8(F) satisfies v(F) < 8(F) < i/(F).
Hint: For the second part, let H(x) be the distribution function whose inverse is
H-'(a) = ![xa-x,_,,], 0 < " < 1, and note thatH(x-i/(F < F(x) < H(x-v(F,
Also note that H(x) is symmetric about zero.
(e) Show that if the support S(F) = {x : 0 < F(x) < 1} of F is a finite interval,
then v(F) and i/( F) are location parameters. ([v(F), i/(F)] is the location parameter set
in the sense that for any continuous F the value ()( F) of any location parameter must be in
[v(F), i/(F)] and, if F is also strictly increasing, any point in [v(F), i/(F)] is the value of
some location parameter.)
~

14. An estimate ()n is said to be shift and scale equivariant if for all xl, ... ,xn , a, b > 0,
~ ~

8n (a +bxI, ... ,a +bxn ) ~ a + b8n (XI, .. ,xn ).

(a) Show that the sample mean, sample median, and sample trimmed mean are shift
and scale equivariant.
~

(b) Write the Be as SC(x,O,Xn_l) to show its dependence on Xn-l


~
(Xl, ... , =
xn-d. Show that if () is shift and location equivariant, then for a E R, b > 0, c E R,
d> 0,
~ ~

SC(a + bx, c + dO, a + bx,,_,) = bdSC(x, 8, x n _,).


That is. the se is shift invariant and scale equivariant.
15. In Remark 3.5.1:
~ ~

(a) Show that SC(x, 8) = IF~ (x; 8, Fn _ I ).


n
~

(b) In the following cases, compare SC(x; 8, F) lim n _ oo SC(x, 8) and


IF(x;8,F).
210 Measures of Performance Chapter 3

(i) O(F) ~ 1'1' ~ J .rdF(l:).


(ii) O(F) = "7.. ~ I(x - IlFfdF(x).
(iii) e(F) = X n . Assume that F is strictly increasing.

(e) Does n -j [SC(x,8) - I F(x, 0, F)! ~ 0 in the cases (i), (ii), and (iii) preceding?
~

16. Show that in the bisection method, in order to be certain that the Jth iterate (j J is within
~ ~

e of the desired () such that 'IjJ( fJ) = 0, we in general must take on the order of log ~ steps.
This is, consequently, also true of the method of coordinate ascent.
17. Let d = 1 and suppose that 'I/J is twice continuously differentiable,1/;' > 0, and we seek
the unique solution (j of 'IjJ(8) = O. The Newton-Raphson method in this case is

(a) Show by example that for suitable t/J and 1(1(0) - Bilarge enough, {BU)} do not
converge.
, ~ ~

(b) Show that there exists, C < 00,0 > 0 (depending on t/J) such that if lOCO) - OJ < 0,
)
,
,
then l(I(i) - BI < C1(1(i- 1) - 81"
Hint: (a) Try t/J(x) = Alogx with A> 1.
(b)

,,
,

18. In the gross error model (3.5.2), show that


(a) If h is a density that is symmetric about zero, then J-.t is identifiable.
(b) If no assumptions are made about h, then fJ. is not identifiable.

3.7 NOTES
Note for Section 3.3 I
(1) A technical problem is to give the class S of subsets of:F for which we can assign I
probability (the measurable sets). We define S as the ,,-field generated by SA,B ~ {F E
:F : Pp(A) E B}, A, B E B, where B is the class of Borel sets.

Notes for Section 3.4


(1) The result of Theorem 3.4.1 is commonly known as the Cramer~Rao inequality. Be-
I ,
,
cause priority of discovery is now given to the French mathematician M. Frechet, we shall ,,


I' ,,
:

I
Section 3.8 References 211

follow the lead of Lehmann and call the inequality after the Fisher information number that
appears in the statement.
(2) Note that this inequality is true but uninteresting if f(O) = 00 (and 1/J'(0) is finite) or if
Var.(T(X)) = 00.
(3) The continuity of the first integral ensures that

: (J [rO roo .. roo T(x) :>. p(x. >.)dXd>.] = roo. roo T(x) [~p(X' 0)] dx
Joo )-00 J -00 J J -00 8(J
-00

for all (J whereas the continuity (or even boundedness on compact sets) of the second inte-
gral guarantees that we can interchange the order of integration in

(4) The finiteness of Var8(T(X)) and f(O) imply that 1/J'(0) is finite by the covariance
interpretation given in (3.4.8).

3.8 REFERENCES
ANDREWS, D. F., P. J. BICKEL, F. R. HAMPEL, P. J. HUBER, W. H. ROGERS, AND J. W. TUKEY, Robust
Estimates of Location: Sun>ey and Advances Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1972.
APoSTOL, T. M., Mathematical Analysis, 2nd ed. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1974.
BERGER, J. 0., Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis New York: Springer, 1985.
BERNARDO, 1. M., AND A. F. M. SMITH, Bayesian Theory New York: Wiley, 1994.
BICKEL, P., AND E. LEHMANN, "Unbiased Estimation in Convex. Families," Ann. Math. Statist., 40,
1523-1535 (1969).
BICKEL, P., AND E. LEHMANN, "Descriptive Statistics for Nonparametric Models. I. Introduction,"
Ann. Statist., 3, 1038-1044 (l975a).
BICKEL, P., AND E. LEHMANN, "Descriptive Statistics for Nonparametric Models. II. Location," Ann.
Statist., 3,1045-1069 (1975b).
BICKEL, P., AND E. LEHMANN, "Descriptive Statistics for Nonparametric Models. III. Dispersion,"
Ann. Statist.. 4, 1139-1158 (1976).
BOHLMANN, H., Ma.thematical Methods in Risk Theory Heidelberg: Springer Verlag, 1970.
DAHLQUIST, G., A. BJORK, AND N. ANDERSON, Numen'cal Analysis New York: Prentice Hall, 1974.
DE GROOT, M. H., Optimal Statistical Decisions New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969.
DoKSUM, K. A.. "Measures of Location and AsymmeUy," Scand. J. ofStatist., 2, 11-22 (1975).
DOWE, D. L., R. A. BAXTER, J. J. OLIVER, AND C. S. WALLACE, Point Estimation Using the Kullback-
Leibler Loss Function and MML, in Proceedings of the Second Pa.cific Asian Conference on
Knowledge Discovery and Data Mintng Melbourne: Springer-Verlag, 1998.
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HAMPEL, E, "The Influence Curve and Its Role in Robust Estimation," J. Amer. Stlltist. Assoc.. 69,
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J. Amer. Stu/ist. Assoc., (2000).
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HUBER, P., Robust Statistics New York: Wiley, 1981. j
HUBER, P., "Robust Statistics: A Review," Ann. Math. Stall',n., 43,1041-1067 (1972). I
JAECKEL, L. A., "Robust Estimates of Location," Ann. Math. StatiSl., 42, 1020-1034 (1971).
JEFFREYS, H., Theory ofProbability, 2nd ed. London: Oxford University Press, 1948.
KARLIN, S., Mathematical Methods and Theory in Games, Programming, and Economics Reading,
MA: Addison-Wesley, 1959.
LEHMANN, E. L., Testing Statistical Hypotheses New York: Springer, 1986.
LEHMANN, E. L., AND G. CASELLA, Theory ofPoint Estimation, 2nd ed. New York: Springer, 1998.
LINDLEY, D. Y., Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Point of View, Part I:
Probability; Part II: Inference, Cambridge University Press, London, 1965.
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(1998).
NORBERG, R., "Hierarchical Credibility: Analysis of a Random Effect Linear Model with Nested
Classification," Scand. Actuarial J., 2Q4-.222 (1986).

RISSANEN, 1., "Stochastic Complexity (With Discussions):' J. Royal Statist. Soc. B, 49, 223-239
(1987).

,. SAVAGE, L. 1., The Foundations afStatistics New York: J. Wiley & Sons, 1954.
,, SHIBATA, R., "Boostrap Estimate of Kullback-Leibler Information for Model Selection," Statistica
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Third Berkeley Symposium on Math. StrJtist. and Probability, J, University of California Press,
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538-542(1973).

,
1
Chapter 4

TESTING AND CONFIDENCE


REGIONS: BASIC THEORY

4.1 INTRODUCTION

In Sections 1.3, 3.2. and 3.3 we defined the testing problem abstractly, treating it as a de-
cision theory problem in which we are to decide whether P E Po or P l or, parametrically,
whether (j E 8 0 or 8 1 jf P j = {Pe : () E 8 j }, where Po, PI or 8 0 , 8 1 are a partition of
the model P or, respectively, the parameter space e.
This framework is natural if, as is often the case, we are trying to get a yes or no
answer to important questions in science, medicine, pUblic policy, and indeed most human
activities, and we have data providing some evidence one way or the other.
As we have seen, in examples such as 1.1.3 the questions are sometimes simple and
the type of data to be gathered under our control. Does a new drug improve recovery
rates? Does a new car seat design improve safety? Does a new marketing policy increase
market share? We can design a clinical trial, peIfonn a survey, or more generally construct
an experiment that yields data X in X C Rq, modeled by us as having distribution P(j,
e
o E 8. where is partitioned into {80 , 8d with 8 0 and 8, conesponding, respectively,
to answering "no" or "yes" to the preceding questions.
Usually, the situation is less simple. The design of the experiment may not be under
our control, what is an appropriate stochastic model for the data may be questionable, and
what 8 0 and 8 1 correspond to in tenns of the stochastic model may be unclear. Here are
two examples that illustrate these issues.

Example 4.1.1. Sex Bias in Graduate Admissions at Berkeley. The Graduate Division of the
University of California at Berkeley attempted to study the possibility that sex bias operated
in graduate admissions in 1973 by examining admissions data. They initially tabulated
Nm1,Nfb the numbers of admitted male and female applicants, and the corresponding
numbers N mo , Nfo of denied applicants. If n is the total number of applicants, it might be
tempting to model (Nm1 , Nmo,Nf1 , Nfo) by a multinomial, M(n,PmllPmO,Pfl,PfO).
distribution. But this model is suspect because in fact we are looking at the population
of all applicants here, not a sample. Accepting this model provisionally, what does the

213
214 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

hypothesis of no sex bias correspond to? Again it is natural to translate this into

P[Admit I Male] = Pm! = P[Admit I Female] = P fI


Pml +PmO Pil +PjO
But is this a correct translation of what absence of bias means? Only if admission is deter-
mined centrally by the toss of a coin with probability
Pml Pi!
Pml + PmO PIl +PiO
[n fact, as is discussed in a paper by Bickel, Hammel, and O'Connell (1975), admissions
are petfonned at the departmental level and rates of admission differ significantly from
department to department. If departments "use different coins," then the data are naturally
decomposed into N = (Nm1d, N mOd , NIld, NjOd, d = 1, ... , D), where N m1d is the
number of male admits to department d, and so on. OUf multinomial assumption now
becomes N ""' M(pmld' PmOd, Pfld, PfOd, d = 1, ... , D). In these tenns the hypothesis
of "no bias" can now be translated into:
H: Pml Pfld
Pmld +
PmOd Pild + PfOd
,
,
for d = 1, ... ,D. This is not the same as our previous hypothesis unless all departments
have the same number of applicants or all have the same admission rate,

!. pml +P/I

i:,. Pml + P/I + PmO + Pio


In fact, the same data can lead to opposite conclusions regarding these hypotheses-a phe-
,,

nomenon called Simpson's paradox. The example illustrates both the difficulty of speci-

fying a stochastic model and translating the question one wants to answer into a statistical
I
,
hypothesis.
Example 4.1.2. Mendel's Peas. In one of his famous experiments laying the foundation of
0

the quantitative theory of genetics, Mendel crossed peas heterozygous for a trait with two
alleles, one of which was dominant. The progeny exhibited approximately the expected
ratio of one homozygous dominant to two heterozygous dominants (to one recessive). In
a modem formulation, if there were n dominant offspring (seeds), the natural model is to
~.
,, assume, if the inheritance ratio can be arbitrary, that N AA, the number of homozygous
dominants, has a binomial (n,p) distribution. The hypothesis of dominant inheritance
,. corresponds to H : p = ~ with the alternative K : p t-
~. It was noted by Fisher
,I
!.
I
as reported in Jeffreys (1961) that in this experiment the observed fraction ':: was much
closer to 3- than might be expected under the hypothesis that N AA has a binomial, B (n, ~),
distribution,
I
.!

,:-
P [ NAA - - < -
n
I
3 - n 3
1]
m - - =7xlO -5 '

Fisher conjectured that rather than believing that such a very extraordinary event oc-
curred it is more likely that the numbers were made to "agree with theory" by an overzeal-
ous assistant. That is, either N AA cannot really be thought of as stochastic or any stochastic
I,
I
I
I
,
Section 4.1 Introduction 215

model needs to pennit distributions other than B( n, p), for instance, (1 - )51 + cB( nlP),
where 1 ~ E is the probability that the assistant fudged the data and 6!.!., is point mass at
n 0
3'

What the second of these examples suggests is often the case. The set of distributions
corresponding to one answer, say 8 0 , is better defined than the alternative answer 8 1 . That
a treatment has no effect is easier to specify than what its effect is; see, for instance, our
discussion of constant treatment effect in Example 1.1.3. In science generally a theory
typically closely specifies the type of distribution P of the data X as, say, P = Po, 0 E 8 0 ,
If the theory is false, it's not clear what P should be as in the preceding Mendel example.
These considerations lead to the asymmetric formulation that saying P E Po (e E 8 0 )
corresponds to acceptance of the hypothesis H : P E Po and P E PI corresponds to
rejection sometimes written as K : P E PJ .(1)
As we have stated earlier, acceptance and rejection can be thought of as actions a = 0
or 1, and we are then led to the natural 0 - 1 loss l(B, a) = 0 if BE 8 a and 1 otherwise.
Moreover, recall that a decision procedure in the case of a test is described by a test function
Ii: x ~ {D, I} or critical region C = {x: Ii(x) = I}, the set of points for which we reject.
It is convenient to distinguish between two structural possibilities for 8 0 and 8 1 : If 8 0
consists of only one point, we call 8 0 and H simple. When 8 0 contains more than one
point, 8 0 and H are called compOSite. The same conventions apply to 8] and K.
We illustrate these ideas in the following example.
Example 4.1.3. Suppose we have discovered a new drug that we believe will increase the
rate of recovery from some disease over the recovery rate when an old established drug is
applied. Our hypothesis is then the null hypothesis that the new drug does not improve on
the old drug. Suppose that we know from past experience that a fixed proportion Bo = 0.3
recover from the disease with the old drug. What our hypothesis means is that the chance
that an individual randomly selected from the ill population will recover is the same with
the new and old drug. To investigate this question we would have to perform a random
experiment. Most simply we would sample n patients, administer the new drug, and then
base our decision on the observed sample X = (X J, ... ,Xn ), where Xi is 1 if the ith
patient recovers and 0 otherwise. Thus, suppose we observe S = EXi , the number of
recoveries among the n randomly selected patients who have been administered the new
drug. (2) If we let () be the probability that a patient to whom the new drug is administered
recovers and the population of (present and future) patients is thought of as infinite, then S
has a B(n, B) distribution. If we suppose the new drug is at least as effective as the old, then
e = [00 ,11, where 00 is the probability of recovery usiog the old drug, Now 8 0 = {Oo}
and H is simple; 8 1 is the interval ((}o, 11 and K is composite. In situations such as this one
we shall simplify notation and write H : () = eo. K : () > Bo. Ifwe allow for the possibility
that the new drug is less effective than the old, then 8 0 = [0 , (}o] and eo is composite. It
will turn out that in most cases the solution to testing problem~ with 80 simple also solves
the composite 8 0 problem. See Remark 4.1.
In this example with 80 = {()o} it is reasonable to reject I-J if S is "much" larger than
what would be expected by chance if H is true and the value of B is eo. Thus, we reject
H if S exceeds or equals some integer, say k, and accept H otherwise. That is, in the
216 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

tenninology of Section 1.3, our critical region C is {X : S > k} and the test function or
rule is Ok(X) = I{S > k} with

PI ~ probability of type I error = Pe, (5 > k)

PH = probability of type II error ~ P, (5 < k), 0 > 00 .


The constant k that determines the critical region is called the critical value. 0
In most problems it turns out that the tests that arise naturally have the kind of structure
we have just described. There is a statistic T that "tends" to be small, if H is true, and
large, if H is false. We call T a test statistic. (Other authors consider test statistics T that
tend to be small, when H is false. - T would then be a test statistic in our sense.) We select
a number c and our test is to calculate T(x) and then reject H ifT(x) > c and accept H
otherwise. The value c that completes our specification is referred to as the critical value
of the test. Note that a test statistic generates a family of possible tests as c varies. We will
discuss the fundamental issue of how to choose T in Sections 4.2, 4.3, and later chapters.
We now tum to the prevalent point of view on how to choose c.

The Neyman Pearson Framework


The Neyman Pearson approach rests On the idea that, of the two errors, one can be
thought of as more important. By convention this is chosen to be the type I error and that in
tum detennines what we call H and what we call K. Given this position, how reasonable
is this point of view?
In the medical setting of Example 4.1.3 this asymmetry appears reasonable. It has
~

also been argued that, generally in science, announcing that a new phenomenon has been :

observed when in fact nothing has happened (the so-called null hypothesis) is more serious
I
than missing something new- that has in fact occurred. We do not find this persuasive, but !
j
if this view is accepted, it again reason~bly leads to a Neyman Pearson fonnulation. ,
:
,....., As we noted in Examples 4.1.1 and4.1.2, asymmetry is often also imposed because one !:
, .
1,1 of eo, e 1 , is much better defined than its complement and/or the distribution of statistics T ,
I
under eo is easy to compute. In that case rejecting the hypothesis at level a is interpreted I
,
as a measure of the weight of evidence we attach to the falsity of H. For instance, testing
techniques are used in searching for regions of the genome that resemble other regions that
!
are known to have significant biological activity. One way of doing this is to align the j
known and unknown regions and compute statistics based on the number of matches. To
detennine significant values of these statistics a (more complicated) version of the follow-
ing is done. Thresholds (critical values) are set so that if the matches occur at random (i.e.,
matches at one position are independent of matches at other positions) and the probability
of a match is ~, then the probability of exceeding the threshold (type I) error is smaller
than Q". No one really believes that H is true and possible types of alternatives are vaguely
known at best, but computation under H is easy.
The Neyman Pearson framework is still valuable in these situations by at least making
us think of possible alternatives and then, as we shall see in Sections 4.2 and 4.3, suggesting
what test statistics it is best to use. 1
1
,I
i

,
Section 4.1 Introduction 217

There is an important class of situations in which the Neyman Pearson framework is


inappropriate, such as the quality control Example 1.1.1. Indeed, it is too limited in any
situation in which, even though there are just two actions, we can attach, even nominally,
numbers to the two losses that are not equal and/or depend on 0, See Problem 3.2.9.
Finally, in the Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the parameter, the approach
of Example 3.2.2(b) is the one to take in all cases with 8 0 and 8 1 simple.
Here are the elements of the Neyman Pearson story. Begin by specifying a small num-
ber a > 0 such that probabilities of type I error greater than a arc undesirable. Then restrict
attention to tests that in fact have the probability of rejection less than or equal to a for all
() E 8 0 . Such tests are said to have level (o/significance) a. and we speak of rejecting
H at level a. The values a = 0.01 and 0.05 are commonly used in practice. Because a
test of level a is also of level a' > a, it is convenient to give a name to the smallest level
of significance of a test. This quantity is called the size of the test and is the maximum
probability of type I error. That is, if we have a test statistic T and use critical value c, our
test has size a(c) given by

a(e) ~ sup{Pe[T(X) > cJ: 8 E eo} (4. Ll)

Nowa(e) is nonincreasing in c and typically a(c) r 1 as c 1 -00 and a(e) 1 0 as c r 00.


In that case, if 0 < a < 1, there exists a unique smallest c for which a(c) < a. This is
the critical value we shall use, if our test statistic is T and we want level a. It is referred
to as the level a critical value. In Example 4.1.3 with O(X) = I{S > k}, 8 0 = 0.3 and
n = 10, we find from binomial tables the level 0.05 critical value 6 and the test has size
,,(6) = Pe,(S > 6) = 0.0473.
Once the level or critical value is fixed, the probabilities of type II error as 8 ranges over
8 1 are determined. By convention 1 - P [type 11 error] is usually considered. Specifically,
Definition 4.1.1. The power of a test against the alternative 0 is the probability of rejecting
H when () is true.
Thus, the power is 1 minus the probability of type II error. It can be thought of as the
probability that the test will "detect" that the alternative 8 holds. The power is a function of
e
8 on I, If 8 0 is composite as well, then the probability of type I error is also a function of
8. Both the power and the probability of type I error are contained in the power function,
which is defined/or all 8 E 8 by

{3(8) = {3(8,0) = Pe[Rejection] = Pe[o(X) = 1] = Pe[T(X) > cJ.


If 8 E 8 0 {3(8, 0) is just the probability of type! errot, whereas if 8 E e t , {3(8, 0) is the
power against ().
Example 4.1.3 (continued). Here

{3(8,Ok) = P(S > k) ~ t(


j=k
n ) 8i (1 - 8)n- j
J

A plot of this function for n = 10, 80 = 0.3, k = 6 is given in Figure 4.1.1.


218 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

1.0

0.8

06

04

0.2

o~31:..:._~-:..--:"-::':-::';-~==--/---+---+_+---+----1'----+ 0
o 0.1 0.2 0.3 04 05 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Figure 4.1.1. Power function of the level 0.05 one-sided test c5k of H : () = 0.3 versus
K : B> 0.3 for the B(lO, 0) family of distributions. The power is plotted as a function of
0, k ~ 6 and the size is 0.0473.

Note that in this example the power at () = B1 > 0.3 is the probability that the level
:1 0.05 test will detect an improvement of the recovery fate from 0.3 to (it > 0.3. When (}1

is 0.5, a 67% improvement, this probability is only .3770. What is needed to improve on
this situation is a larger sample size n. One of the most important uses of power is in the
selection of sample sizes to achieve reasonable chances of detecting interesting alternatives.
We return to this question in Section 4.3. 0
I
Remark 4.1. From Figure 4.1.1 it appears that the power function is increasing (a proof j,
will be given in Section 4.3). It follows that the level and size of the test are unchanged if
instead of 80 = {Oo} we used eo = [0,0 0 ]. That is, I
!
-j
a(k) = sup{Pe[T(X) > k]: 0 E eo} = Pe,[T(X) > k]. i
Example 4.1.4. One-Sided Tests for the Mean ofa Normal Distribution with Known Vari- j
ance. Suppose that X = (X I, ... , Xn ) is a sample from N (/', ,,2) popnlation with ,,2 is i,

known. (The (T2 unknown case is treated in Section 4.5.) We want to test H : J.t < 0 versus 1
,
K : J.t > O. This problem arises when we want to compare two treatments or a treatment ,
and control (nothing) and both treatments are administered to the same subject. For in- I
stance, suppose we want to see if a drug induces sleep. We might, for each of a group of I
n randomly selected patients, record sleeping time without the drug (or after the adminis-
tration of a placebo) and then after some time administer the drug and record sleeping time I
I
again. Let Xi be the difference between the time slept after administration of the drug and
time slept without administration of the drug by the ith patient. If we assume XI, .. _l X n I
are nonnally distributed with mean p. and variance (T2, then the drug effect is measured by
p. and H is the hypothesis that the drug has no effect or is detrimental, whereas K is the
1
alternative that it has some positive effect.
Section 4.1 Introduction 219

Because X tends to be larger under K than under H, it is natural to reject H for large
values of X. It is convenient to replace X by the test statistic T(X) = .;nX/ (J, which
generates the same family of critical regions. The power function of the test with critical
value c is

p
"
[Vii (X -!") > e _ Vii!"]
(J (J
(4.1.2)
1- ~ (c - V;I') ~ ~ (-c + V;p)
because ~(z) = 1- ~(-z). Because (J(jL) is increasing,

a(e) ~ sup{(J(p) : p < OJ ~ (J(O) = ~(-c).


The smallest c for whieh ~(-c) < C\' is obtained by setting q:.( -c) = C\' or
e = -z(a)

where -z(a) = z(1 - a) is the (1- a) quantile oftheN(O, 1) distribution. o


The Heuristics of Test Construction
When hypotheses are expressed in terms of an estimable parameter H : (j E eo c RP,
-
and we have available a good estimate (j of (j, it is clear that a reasonable test statis-
-
tic is d((j, eo), where d is the Euclidean (or some equivalent) distance and d(x, S) =
inf{d(x,y) : YES}. This minimum distance principle is essentially what underlies
Examples 4.1.2 and 4.1.3. In Example 4.1.2, p ~ P[AA], N~A is the MLE of p and
d(N~A,eo) = IN~A - ~I. In Example 4.1.3, ~ estimates(jandd(~,(jo) = (~ -(jo)+
where y+ = Y l(y > 0). Rejecting for large values of this statistic is equivalent to rejecting
for large values of X.
Given a test statistic T(X) we need to determine critical values and eventually the
power of the resulting tests. The task of finding a critical value is greatly simplified if
,(T(X)) doesn't depend on 0 for 0 E 8 0 . This occurs if 8 0 is simple as in Example
4.1.3. But it occurs also in more interesting situations such as testing p. = P.o versus
p. #- P.o if we have H(p., (12) observations with both parameters unknown (the t tests of
Example 4.5.1 and Example 4.1.5). In all of these cases, 0, the common distribution of
T(X) under (j E 8 0 , has a closed form and is tabled. However, in any case. critical values
yielding correct type I probabilities are easily obtained by Monte Carlo methods. That is,
if we generate i.i.d. T(X(lI), ... , T(X(B)) from 0. then the test that rejects iff T(X) >
TB+l)(l-a)), where T(l) < .. , < T(B+l) are the ordered T(X). T(X(l)), ... T(X(B)).
has level a if 0 is continuous and (B + 1)(1 - a) is an integer (Problem 4.1.9),
The key feature of situations in which .co
(Tn) =.co
for (j E 8 0 is usually invariance
under the action of a group of transformations_ See Lehmann (1997) and Volume II for
discussions of this property.
Here are two examples of testing hypotheses in a nonparametric context in which the
minimum distance principle is applied and calculation of a critical value is straightforward.
220 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4
1
,
,
,

Example 4.1.5. Goodness of Fit Tests. Let X I, ... ,Xn be i.i.d. as X ......, F, where F is
continuous. Consider the problem of testing H : F = Fo versus K : F i- Fa. Let F -
denote the empirical distribution and consider the sup distance between the hypothesis Fo
-
and the plug-in estimate of F, the empirical distribution function F, as a tcst statistic

Dn - - Fo(x)[.
= sup IF(x)
x

It can be shown (Problem 4.1.7) that Do. which is called the Kolmogorov statistic, can be
wriHen as

Dn =~ax max {~ - Fo(x(i))' FO(X(i)) _ ,--(i_l-,-)} (4.1 J)


t-I, ... ,n n n

where x(l) < ... < x(n) is the ordered observed sample, that is, the order statistics. This
statistic has the following distributionjree property: 1
Proposition 4.1.1. The distribution of D n under H is the same for all continuous Fo. In
j;
particular, P Fo (D n < d) = Pu (D n < d), where U denotes the U(O, 1) distribution.
Proof. Set Ui ~ F o (Xi). then by Problem B.3.4, U; ~ U(O, 1). Also

F(x) n- 1 El{Xi < x} = n- 1 El{Fo(Xi ) < Fo(x)}


n- 1 El{U, < Fo(x)} = U(Fo(x))

where U denotes the empirical distribution function of Ul , ... , Un' As x ranges over R,
u = Fo(x) ranges over (0, 1), thus,

D n = sup [U(u) - u[
,:i' O<u<l
,.
and the result follows. o
Note that the hypothesis here is simple so that for anyone of these hypotheses F = F o
the distribution can be simulated (or exhibited in closed fonn). What is remarkable is
that it is independ~nt of which F o we consider. This is again a consequence of invariance
properties (Lehmann, 1997).
The distribution of D n has been thoroughly smdied for finite and large n. In particular,
for n > 80, and

hn(t) = t/( Vri + 0.12 + OJI/Vri)

close approximations to the size" critical values ka are h n (L628), h n (L358), and
h n (L224) for" = .01, .05, and .10 respectively. 0
Example 4.1.6. Goodness of Fit to the Gaussian Family. Suppose Xl, ... , X n are ij.d. F
and the hypothesis is H : F = ~ (' (7'/1:) for some M,U. which is evidently composite.
We can proceed as in Example 4,L5 rewriting H : F(!' + (Tx) = <p(x) for all x where
!' = EF(X , ). (T2 = VarF(Xtl. The natural estimate of the parameter F(!, + (Tx) is

,

Section 4.1 Introduction 221

F(X + ax) where X and 0'2 are the MLEs of J1 and (12. Applying the sup distance again.
we obtain the statistic

Tn sup IF'(X + iix) - <l'(x)1


x

sup IG(x) - <l'(x)1


x

~ -
where G is the empirical distribution of (L~l"'" Lln ) with Lli (Xi - X)/ii. But,
under H, the joint distribution of (Dq , ... , ~n) doesn't depend on fl., {12 and is that of
(Zi - Z) / (~ 2::7 ! (Zi - if) , I < i < n, where Z I, ... , Zn arc i.i.d. N(O, I). (Sec
Section 8.3.2.) Thus, Tn has the same distribution 0 under H, whatever be 11 and (12,
and the critical value may be obtained by simulating ij.d. observations Zi, 1 < i < n,
from N(O, 1), then computing the Tn corresponding to those Zi. We do this B times
independently, thereby obtaining Tn1 , . , T nB . Now the Monte Carlo critical value is the
I(B + 1)(1 - a) + IJth order statistic among Tn, Tn!, ... , T nB .(3) 0

The p-Value: The Test Statistic as Evidence


o

Different individuals faced with the same testing problem may have different criteria
of size. Experimenter] may be satisfied to reject the hypothesis H using a test with size
a = 0.05, whereas experimenter II insists on using 0' = 0.01. It is then possible that
experimenter I rejects the hypothesis H, whereas experimenter II accepts H on the basis
of the same outcome x of an experiment. If the two experimenters can agree on a common
test statistic T, this difficulty may be overcome by reporting the outcome of the experiment
in tenus of the observed size or p-value or significance probability of the test. This quantity
is a statistic that is defined as the smallest level of significance 0' at which an experimenter
using T would reject on the basis ofthe observed outcome x. That is. if the experimenter's
critical value corresponds to a test of size less than the p~value, H is not rejected; otherwise,
H is rejected.
Consider, for instance, Example 4, 1.4. If we observe X = x = (Xl,' .. , In). we would
reject H if, and only if, a satisfies

.,(iix
T(x) = > -z(a)
u
or upon applying <l' to both sides if, and only if,

a > <l'( -T(x)).

Therefore. if X = x, the p-value is

<l'( -T(x)) = <l' (--;;X) . (4.1.4)

Considered as a statistic the p-value is <l'( -y"nX /u).


222 Testing and Confidence Regions Cnapter 4

In general, let X be a q dimensional random vector. We will show that we can express
the p-value simply in tenns of the function a() defined in (4.1.1). Suppose that we observe
X = x. Then if we use critical value c, we would reject H if, and only if,

T(x) > c.

Thus, the largest critical value c for which we would reject is c = T(x). But the size of a
test with critical value c is just a(c) and a(c) is decreasing in c. Thus, the smallest a for
which we would reject corresponds to the largest c for which we would reject and is just
a(T(x)). We have proved the following.
Proposition 4.1.2. The p-value is a(T(X)).
This is in agreement with (4.1.4). Similarly in Example 4.1.3,

and the p-value is a( s) where s is the observed value of X. The normal approximation is
used for the p-value also. Thus. for miu{ nOo, n(1 - Oo)} > 5,

( [nOo(1 ~ 0 )1'
s~l~nOo)
a(8) = p.,(S > s) '" 1- <I> 2 ,. (4.1.5)
0

The p-value is used extensively in situations of the type we described earlier, when H
is well defined, but K is not, so that type II error considerations are unclear. In this context,
to quote Fisher (1958), ''The actual value of p obtainable from the table by interpolation
indicates the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis" (p. 80).
,,
;
The p-value can be thought of as a standardized version of our original statistic; that
is, a(T) is on the unit interval and when H is simple and T has a continuous distribution,
aCT) has a uniform, U(O, 1). distribution (Problem 4.1.5).
It is possible to use p-values to combine the evidence relating to a given hypothesis H
provided by several different independent experiments producing different kinds of data.

!: For example, if r experimenters use continuous test statistics T 1 , ... I T r to produce p-


1;
I values a(T,), ... , a(Tr ). then if H is simple Fisher (1958) proposed using
I,,' r

l:i,,

T = ~2 I: loga(Tj) (4.1.6)
j=l
I j ~

to test H. The statistic T has a chi-square distribution with 2n degrees of freedom (Problem
~

4.1.6). Thus, H is rejected if T > Xl-a where Xl_a is the 1 - ath quantile of the X~n
distribution. Various melhods of combining the data from different experiments in this way
are discussed by van Zwet and Osterhoff (1967). More generally, these kinds of issues
are currently being discussed under the rubric of data-fusion and meta-analysis (e.g. see
f Hedges and Olkin. 1985).

~
['
H
fJ,
i~!
<:1
im _
Section 4.2 Choosing a Test Statistic The Neyman-Pearson lemma 223

The preceding paragraph gives an example in which the hypothesis specifies a distri-
bution completely; that is, under H, o:(Td has a U(O, 1) distribution. This is an instance
of testing goodness offit; that is, we test whether the distribution of X is different from a
specified Fo.
Summary. We introduce the basic concepts and terminology of testing statistical hypothe-
ses and give the Neyman-Pearson framework. In particular, we consider experiments in
which important questions about phenomena can be turned into questions about whether
a parameter () belongs to 80 or e 1, where eo and e 1 are disjoint subsets of the parame-
ter space 6. We introduce the basic concepts of simple and composite hypotheses, (null)
hypothesis H and alternative (hypothesis) K, test functions, critical regions, test statistics,
type I error, type II error, significance level, size, power, power function, and p-value. In
the Neyman-Pearson framework, we specify a small number 0: and conStruct tests that have
at most probability (significance level) 0: of rejecting H (deciding K) when H is true; then,
subject to this restriction, we try to maximize the probability (power) of rejecting H when
K is true.

4.2 CHOOSING A TEST STATISTIC: THE


NEYMAN-PEARSON LEMMA
We have seen how a hypothesis-testing problem is defined and how perfonnance of a given
test b, or equivalently, a given test statistic T, is measured in the Neyman-Pearson theory.
Typically a test statistic is not given but must be chosen on the basis of its perfonnance. In
Sections 3.2 and 3.3 we derived test statistics that are best in terms of minimizing Bayes
risk and maximum risk. In this section we will consider the problem of finding the level a
test that ha<; the highest possible power. Such a test and the corresponding test statistic are
called most poweiful (MP).
We start with the problem of testing a simple hypothesis H : () = ()o versus a simple
alternative K : 0 = 01. In this case the Bayes principle led to procedures based on the
simple likelihood ratio statistic defined by

p(x, OIl
L(x, 00, OIl = p (x, 0)
0

where p(x, 0) is the density or frequency function of the random vector X. The statistic L
takes on the value 00 when p(x, OIl > 0, p(x, 00 ) = 0; and, by convention, equals 0 when
both numerator and denominator vanish.
The statistic L is reasonable for testing H versuS K with large values of L favoring K
over H. For instance, in the binomial example (4.1.3),

L(x, 00 , 0,) (0,/00)5[(1- 01 )/(1- 00)ln~5


(4.2. I)
[0, (I - 00)/00 (1 - 0,)1 5 [(1- Otl/(1 - Oo)]n,

which is large when S = EXi is large, and S tends to be large when K : () = 01 > 00 is
true.
224 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

We call iflk a likelihood ratio or Neyman-Pearsoll (NP) test ifunction) if for some 0 <
k < OJ we can write the test function Yk as
1 if L( x, Bo , BIl >k
'Pk ()
X = .
o If L(x,Bo,Bd <k
with 'Pdx) any value in (0,1) if equality occurs. Note (Section 3.2) that 'Pk is a Bayes
rule with k ~ 7l' /(1 - 7l'), where 7l' denotes the prior probability of {Bo}. We show that in
addition to being Bayes optimal, 'Pk is MP for level E'c'PdX).
Because we want results valid for all possible test sizes Cl' in [0,1]. we consider ran-
domized tests '1', which are tests that may take values in (0,1). If 0 < 'P(x) < 1 for the
observation vector x, the interpretation is that we toss a coin with probability of heads cp(x)
and reject H iff the coin shows heads. (See also Section 1.3.) For instance, if want size
a ~ .05 in Example 4.1.3 with n = 10 and Bo = 0.3, we choose 'P(x) = 0 if S < 5,
'P(x) = 1 if S > 5, and
'P(x) = [0.05 - P(S > 5)I!P(S = 5) = .0262
if S = 5. Such randomized tests are not used in practice. They are only used to show that
with randomization, likelihood ratio tests are unbeatable no matter what the size a is.
Theorem 4.2.1. (Neyman-Pearson Lemma).
(a) If a > 0 and I{Jk is a size a likelihood ratio test. then <{Jk is MP in the class oflevel
a tests.
(b) For each 0 < a < 1 there exists an MP size 0' likelihood ratio test provided that
randomization is permitted, 0 < <p(x) < 1, lOY some x.
(c) If <p is an MP level 0: test, then it must be a level a likelihood ratio test; that is, there
exists k such that
(4.2.2)

forB = BoandB = B,.


Proof. (a) Let E i denote E8;., i = 0, 1, and suppose r.p is a level a test, then
EO'PdX) ~ a, Eo'P(X) < a. (4.2.3)
,, We want to show E,['Pk(X) - 'P(X)] > O. To this end consider
1:
i' E,[CPk(X) - 'P(X)] - kEo['Pk(X) - 'P(X)]
~ = Eo['Pk{X) - 'P(X)] [:~~:::l- k] + E'['Pk(X) - 'P(X)] 1{P(X, Bo) = O} ;
= I + II (say), where I
1= EO{CPk(X)[L(X, Bo, BI ) - k] - 'P(X)[L(X, Bo, B,) - kJ}.
Because L(x,Bo,B,) - k is < 0 or > 0 according as 'Pk(X) is 0 or 1, and because 0 < j
'P(x) < 1, then I > O. Note that a > 0 implies k < 00 and, thns, 'Pk(X) = 1 if i
p(x, Bo) = O. It follows that II > O. Finally, using (4.2.3), we have shown that
I
E,('Pk(X) - 'P(X)] > kEo['PdX) - 'P(X)] > O. (4.2.4) 1

7
j
Section 4.2 "--
Choosing a Test Statistic: The Neyman-Pearson lemma 225
--=:cc

(b) If a ~ 0, k = 00 makes 'Pk MP size a. If a = 1, k = 0 makes E, 'Pk(X) = 1


and !.pk is MP size a. Next consider 0 < Q: < 1. Let Pi denote Po" i = 0,1. Because
Po[L(X, 00 , OJ! = ooJ ~ 0, then there exists k < 00 such that
Po[L(X, 00 , OJ! > k] < a and Po[T,(X, 00 , OJ! > k] > a.

If Po[L(X, 00 , 0,) = k] = 0, then 'Pk is MP size a. If not, define

'Pk(X) =a - Po[L(X, 00 ,0,) > k]


Po[L(X, 00 , 0,) - k]
on the set {x : L(x, 00 , 0,) = k j. Now 'Pk is MP size a.
(c) Let x E {x: p(x, 0,) > OJ, then to have equality in (4.2.4) we need tohave'P(x) ~
'Pk(X) = I when L(x, 00 , 0,) > k and have 'P(x) = 'Pk(X) ~ 0 when L(x,Oo, 0,) < k. It
follows that (4.2.2) holds forO = 0,. The same argument works for x E {x : p(x, 00 ) > OJ
and 0 = 00 , 0
It follows from the Neyman-Pearson lemma that an MP test has power at least as large
as its level; that is,
Corollary 4.2.I./f 'P is an MP level a test, then E9, 'P(X) > a with equality iffp(" 60 ) =
P(,OI)'
Proof. See Problem 4.2.7.
Remark 4,2.1. Let 1T denote the prior probability of 00 so that (I -1T) is the prior probability
of (it. Then the posterior probability of (). is

1T(O, I x) = (1 -1T)p(X, 0,) (1-1T)L(x,Oo,O,)


(4.2.5)
(1 - 1T)p(x, 0,) + 1Tp(X, 00 ) (1 - 1T)L(x, 60 , 0,) + 1T'
If 0, denotes the Bayes procedure of Exarnple 3.2.2(b), tben, when 1T = k/(k + 1), 0, =
'Pk Moreover, we conc1udefrom (4.2.5) thatthis 0, decides 0, or 00 according as 1T(01 Ix)
is larger than or smaller than 1/2.
Part (a) of the lemma can, for 0 < a < 1, also be easily argued from this Bayes
property of 'Pk (Problem 4.2.10).
Here is an example illustrating calculation of the most powerful level a test <{Jk.
Example 4.2.1. Consider Example 3.3.2 where X = (XI, ... , X n ) is a sample of n
N(j.L,u 2 ) random variables with (72 known and we test H : 11 = a versus K : 11 = v,
where v is a known signal. We found

V n nv2}
L(X,O,v)=exp 2LX'--2 .
{ (7 i=l 2(7

Note that any strictly increasing function of an optimal statistic is optimal because the two
statistics generate the same family of critical regions. Therefore,
2
x
T(X) ~.,fit-;; = v.,fit
(7 [
logL(X,O,v) + nv
2(72
]
226 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

is also optimal for this problem. But T is the test statistic we proposed in Example 4.1.4.
From our discussion there we know that for any specified Ct, the test that rejects if, and only
if.

T>z(l-a) (4.2.6)

has probability of type I error 0:.


The power of this test is, by (4.1.2), <I>(z(a) + (v../iil (J)). By the Neyman-Pearsoo
lemma this is the largest power available with a level Ct test. Thus, if we want the probability
of detecting a signal v to be at least a preassigned value j3 (say, ,90 or .95), then we solve
<1>( z(a) + (v../ii/(J)) = 13 for n and find that we need to take n = ((J Iv j2[z(l-a) + z(I3)]'.
This is the smallest possible n for any size Ct test. 0
An interesting feature of the preceding example is that the test defined by (4.2.6) that is
MP for a specified signal v does not depend on v: The same test maximizes the power for
all possible signals v > O. Such a test is called uniformly most powerful (UMP).
We will discuss the phenomenon further in the next section. The following important
example illustrates, among other things, that the UMP test phenomenon is largely a feature
of one-dimensional parameter problems.
Example 4.2.2. Simple Hypothesis Against Simple Alternative for the Multivariate Nor-
mal: Fisher's Discriminant Flmction. Suppose X ~ N(Pj, E j ), (Jj = (Pj, E j ), j = 0, l.
The likelihood ratio test for H : (J = 6 0 versus K : (J = (h is based on

,
.'
Rejecting H for L large is equivalent to rejecting for I
1,
large. Particularly important is the case Eo = E 1 when "Q large" is equivalent to "F =
(ttl - J-to)E01X large." The function F is known as the Fisher discriminant function. It is
. used in a classification context in which 9 0 , (JI correspond to two known populations and

we desire to classify a new observation X as belonging to one or the other. We return to

,
this in Volume II. Note that in general the test statistic L depends intrinsically on ito, itl'
However if, say, itl = ito + )"6. 0, ).. > 0 and E l = Eo, then, if ito, 6. 0, Eo are known, a
I
UMP (for all )..) test exists and is given by: Reject if

(4.2.7)

where c ~ z(1 - a)[~6Eo' ~oJ! (Problem 4.2.8). If ~o = (1,0, ... , O)T and Eo = I,
then this test rule is to reject H if Xl is large; however. if Eo #- I, this is no longer the case
(Problem 4.2.9). In this example we bave assnmed that (Jo and (J, for the two popnlations
are known. If this is not the case. they are estimated with their empirical versions with
sample means estimating population means and sample covariances estimating population
CQvanances.

I
Section 4.3 Uniformly Most Powerful Tests and Monotone Likelihood Ratio Models 227

Summary. We introduce the simple likelihood ratio statistic and simple likelihood ratio
(SLR) test for testing the simple hypothesis H : (j = ()o versus the simple alternative
K : 0 = ()1. The Neyman-Pearson lemma, which states that the size 0:' SLR test is uniquely
most powerful (MP) in the class of level a tests, is established.
We note the connection of the MP test to the Bayes procedure of Section 3.2 for de-
ciding between 00 and Ol. Two examples in which the MP test does not depend on 0 1 are
given. Such tests are said to be UMP (unifonnly most powerful).

4.3 UNIFORMLY MOST POWERFUL TESTS ANO


MONOTONE LIKELIHOOD RATIO MODELS
We saw in the two Gaussian examples of Section 4.2 that UMP tests for one-dimensional
parameter problems exist. This phenomenon is not restricted to the Gaussian case as the
next example illustrates. Before we give the example, here is the general definition of
UMP:
Definition 4.3.1. A level a test 'P' is wtiformly most powerful (UMP) for H : 0 E eo
versus K : 0 E 8 1 if

(3(0, 'P') > (3(0,'P) for all 0 E 8" (4.3.1)

for any other level 0:' test !.p.

Example 4.3.1. Testing for a Multinomial Vector. Suppose that (N1 , ... , N k ) has a multi-
nomial M(n, (}l, ... 1 (}k) distribution with frequency function,

( 0) _ n! nn, nn,
P nl,,nk, - r lUI ",u k
nt nk
where nl, ... , nk are integers summing to n. With such data we often want to test a simple
hypothesis H : (}I = Ow, .. . , Ok = OkO. For instance, if a match in a genetic breeding ex-
periment can result in k types, n offspring are observed, and N i is the number of offspring
of type i. then (N" ... , Nk) - M( n, 0" ... , Ok)' The simple hypothesis would corre-
spond to the theory that the expected proportion of offspring of types 1, ... , k are given
by Ow, .. . ,OkO' Usually the alternative to H is composite. However, there is sometimes a
simple alternative theory K : (}l = (}ll,"" (}k = Oklo In this case, the likelihood ratio L
's
L~ rr(:,,)N'
i=l to
Here is an interesting special case: Suppose OjO > 0 for all}, 0 < < 1 and for some fixed
integer I with 1 < I < k

(4.3.2)

where
228 Testmg and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

That is, under the alternative, type I is less frequent than under H and the conditional
probabilities of the other types given that type I has not occurred are the same under K as
they are under H. Then
L = pn-N1N1 = pTl(E/p)N1.

Because f. < 1 implies that p > E, we conclude that the MP lest rejects H, if and only if,
N 1 < c. Critical values for level a are easily determined because Nl . . . , B( n, Ow) under H.
Moreover, for", = P( N 1 < c), this test is UMP fortesting H versus K : 0 E 8 1 = {/:/ : /:/ ,
is of the form (4.3.2) with 0 < f < I}. Note that because l can be any of the integers
1 , ... , k, we get radically different best tests depending on which Oi we assume to be (ho
under H. 0

Typically the MP test of H : () = eo versus K : () = (}1 depends on (h and the test is J


not UMP. However, we have seen three models where, in the case of a real parameter, there
is a statistic T such that the test with critical region {x : T(x) > c} is UMP. This is part of
a general phenomena we now describe.
Definition 4,3,2, The family of models {P, : 0 E e} with e c R is said to be a monotone
likelihood ratio (MLR) family if for (it < O2 the distributions POl and P0 2 are distinct and
the ratio p(x, 02)/p(X, Oil is an increasing function ofT(x). 0

,, Example 4.3.2 (Example 4,1.3 continned), In this i.i,d, Bernoulli case, set s = l:~ 1 Xi,
then
p(x,O) = 0'(1 - o)n-, = (I - o)n[O/(1 - OW
and the model is by (4,2,1) MLR in s, o
Example 4.3.3. Consider the one-parameter exponential family mode!

p(x, 0) = h(x)exp{ry(O)T(x) - B(O)},


~,

If 1J(O) is strictly increasing in () E e, then this family is MLR. Example 4.2.1 is of this
form with T(x) = ..;nx/u and ry(!") ~ (..;nu)!", where u is known. 0
,..
Define the Neyman-Pearson (NP) test function

6 ( ) _ 1 ifT(x) > t
, X -
ifT(x) < t
(4,3.3)

with 6,(x) any value in (0,1) if T(x) = t. Consider the problem of testing H : 0 = 00
versus K: 0 ~ 01 with 00 < 81, If {P,: 0 E e}, e c R, is an MLRfamily in T(x), then
L(x, 00 , Oil = h(T(x)) for some increasing function h. Thus, 6, equals the likelihood ratio
test 'Ph(t) and is MP. Because dt does not depend on ()l, it is UMP at level a = EOodt(X)
for testing H : e = eo versus K : B > Bo, in fact.
Theorem 4,3,1. Suppose {P, : 8 E e}. e c R. is an MLRfamily in T(x).
,, (1) For each t E (0,00), the power function (3(/:/) = E,6,(X) is increasing in 0,
(2) If E'o6,(X) = '" > 0, then 6, is UMP level", for testing H : 8 < /:/0 versus
:.;
K:O>/:/I'
Section 4,3 Uniformly Most Po~rful Tests and Monotone likelihood Ratio Models 229

Proof (I) follows from b l = iPh(t)and Corollary 4.2.1 by noting that for any (it < (J2' e5 t
is MP at level Eo,o,(X) for testing H: 0 = 01 versus J( : 0 = 0,. To show (2), recall
that we have seen that e5 t maximizes the power for testing II : (J = (Jo versus K : (J > (Jo
among the class of tests with level <> ~ Eo,o,(X). If 0 < 00 , then by (1), Eoo, (X) < <>
and b t is of level 0: for H : (J :S (Jo. Because the class of tests with level 0' for H : (J < (Jo
is contained in the class of tests with level 0' for H : (J = (Jo, and because dt maximizes the
power over this larger class, d t is UMP for H : (J < (Jo versus K : (J > (Jo. 0
The following useful result follows immediately.

Corollary 4,3.1, Suppose {Po: 0 E e}, e cR, is an MLRfamily in T(r). If the


distributionfunction Fo ofT(X) under X"" POo is continuous and ift(1-a) isasolution
of Fo(t) = 1 - <>, then the test/hat rejects H if and only ifT(r) > t(1 - < is lfMP level
afor testing H: (J < (Jo versus K : (J > (Jo.
Example 4.3.4. Testing Precision. Suppose X!, ... ,Xn is a sample from a N(I1,U 2 )
population, where 11 is a known standard, and we are interested in the precision u- l of
the measurements Xl, ... ,Xn . For instance, we could be interested in the precision of
a new measuring instrument and test it by applying it to a known standard. Because the
most serious error is to judge the precision adequate when it is not, we test H : u > Uo
versus K : u < uo, where U Ol represents the minimum tolerable precision. Let S =
l:~ I (X, _1')2, then

p(x, 0) = exp {-~8


20'
~
2
-
IOg(27r0'2)} .

This is a one-parameter exponential family and is MLR in T = -So The UMP level 0' test
rejects H if and only if 8 < s(a) where s(a) is such that Pa , (8 < s(a)) = a. Ifwe write

~=
Uo
t
i''''l
(Xi _1')2
000

we see that Sju5 has a X~ distribution. Thus, the critical constant 8(0') is u5xn(a), where
xn(a) is the ath quantile of the X; distribution. 0
Example 4,3,5. Quality Control. Suppose tha~ as in Example l.l.l, X is the observed
number of defectives in a sample of n chosen at random without replacement from a lot of
N items containing b defectives, where b = N(J. If the inspector making the test considers
lots with bo = N(Jo defectives or more unsatisfactory, she formulates the hypothesis H as
e > (Jo, the alternative K as (J < (Jo, and specifies an 0' such that the probability of rejecting
H (keeping a bad lot) is at most 0'. If a is a value taken on by the distribution of X, we
now show that the test O with reject H if, and only if, X < h(a), where h(a) is the ath
quantile of the hypergeometric, H.( NOo, N, n), distribution, is UMP level a. For simplicity
suppose that bo > n, N - bo > n. Then, if N0 1 = b1 < bo and 0 < x < b1 , (l.l.l) yields

L( 0 0 )=b,(bl-1) (bl-X+l)(N-bl) (N-bl-n+x+l)


x, 0, 1 bo(bo-l) (bo-x+1)(N-bo) (N-bo-n+x+l)'
230 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

NotethatL(x,(}o,B 1 ) =0 forb l < X <n. Thus. forO <:1' < b1 -1.

",L-,;:(x:.,-+,---,;;I,c:O",O'
- -"O,-,Il = (b l - x) (N - n + I) - (b o - x) <I
L(x,Oo,OIl bo-x (N-n+I)-(bl-x) .
Therefore, L is decreasing in x and the hypergeometric model is an MLR family in T( x) =
-r. It follows that 8* is UMP level Q. The critical values for the hypergeometric distribu-
tion are available on statistical calculators and software. 0

Power and Sample Size

In the Neyman-Pearson framework we choose the test whose size is small. That is,
we choose the critical constant so that the maximum probability of falsely rejecting the
null hypothesis H is small. On the other hand, we would also like large power (3(0) when
() E 8 1 ; that is, we want the probability of correctly detecting an alternative K to be
large. However, as seen in Figure 4.1.1 and formula (4.1.2), this is, in general. not possible
for all parameters in the alternative 8.. In both these cases, H and K are of the fonn
H : () < ()o and K : () > ()o. and the powers are continuous increasing functions with
limOlO, {3(0) ~ a. By CoroUary 4.3.1, this is a general phenomenon in MLR family
models with p( x, 0) continuous in 0.
i',
This continuity of the power shows that not too much significance can be attached to
acceptance of H, if all points in the alternative are of equal significance: We can find
i,
I',
> 00 sufficiently close to 00 so that {3( 0) is arbitrarily close to {3(00) = a. For such the
probability of falsely accepting H is almost 1 - a.

This is not serious in practice if we have an indifference region. This is a subset of
,,
the alternative on which we are willing to tolerate low power. In our nonnal example
4.1.4 we might be uninterested in values of p. in (O , ~) for some small ~ > 0 because
such improvements are negligible. Thus. (0, ~) would be our indifference region. Off the
indifference region, we want guaranteed power as well as an upper bound on the probability
I
i
of type I error. In our example this means that in addition to the indifference region and
level a, we specify {3 close to I and would like to have (3(!') > (3 for aU !' > t-. This is
possible for arbitrary /3 < 1 only by making the sample size n large enough. In Example
4.1.4 because (3(p.) is increasing, the appropriate n is obtained by solving

(3(t-) ~ 'I>(z(a) + .;nt-I") = {3


for sample size n. This equation is equiValent to

z(a) + .;nt-I" = z({3)

whose solution is

1
il
,',
Note that a small signal-to-noise ratio ~/ a will require a large sample size n. I
,.',
Section 4.3 Uniformly Most Powerful Tests and Monotone Likelihood Ratio Models 231

Dual to the problem of not having enough power is that of having too much. It is
natural to associate statistical significance with practical significance so that a very low
p-value is interpreted as evidence that the alternative that holds is physically significant,
that is, far from the hypothesis. Formula (4.1.2) shows that, ifn is very large and/or a is
small, we can have very great power for alternatives very close to O. This problem arises
particularly in goodness-of-fit tests (see Example 4. 1.5), when we test the hypothesis that a
very large sample comes from a particular distribution. Such hypotheses are often rejected
even though for practical purposes "the fit is good enough." The reason is that n is so large
that unimportant small discrepancies are picked up. There are various ways of dealing with
this problem. They often reduce to adjusting the critical value so that the probability of
rejection for parameter value at the boundary of some indifference region is 0:. In Example
4.1.4 this would mean rejecting H if, and only if.

As a further example and precursor to Section 5.4.4, we next show how to find the
sample size that will "approximately" achieve desired power {3 for the size 0: test in the
binomial example.
Example 4.3.6 (Example 4.1.3 continued). Our discussion uses the classical normal ap-
proximation to the binomial distribution. First, to achieve approximate size a, we solve
(3(00 ) = Po" (S > s) for s using (4.1.4) and find the approximate critical value

So ~ nOo + 21 + z(l- Oi) [nOo(1 - 00 )] 1/2 .

Again using the nonnal approximation, we find

no+ 1 - 80 )
(3(0) = PotS > so) = <I> ( [nO(l ~ 0)11/ 2 .

Now consider the indifference region (80 , Bd, where (h = 00 + Dt., Dt. > O. We solve
(3(0,) = (3 for n and find the approximate solution

For instance, if Oi = .05, (3 = .90, 00 = 0.3, and 0, = 0.35, we fleed

n ~ (0.05)-2{1.645 x 0.3(0.7) + 1.282 x 0.35(0.55)}2 = 162.4.


Thus, the size .05 binomial test of H : 8 = 0.3 requires approximately 163 observations
to have probability .90 of detecting the 17% increase in 8 from 0.3 to 0.35. The power
achievable (exactly, using the SPLUS package) for the level .0. test for = .35 and n =
163 is 0.86.
0
Our discussion can be generalized. Suppose 8 is a vector. Often there is a function q(B)
such that H and K can be formulated as H : q(O) <: qo and K : q(O) > qo. Now let
232 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

q, > qo be a value such that we want to have power fJ(O) at least fJ when q(O) > q,. The
set {O : qo < q(O) < ql} is our indjfference region. For each n suppose we have a level
a test for H versus I< based on a suitable test statistic T. Suppose that j3(O) depends on
() only through q( (J) and is a continuous increasing function of q( 0). and also increases to
1 for fixed () E 6 1 as n ...-+ 00. To achieve level a and power at least (3, first let Co be the
smallest number c such that

Then let n be the smallest integer such that

P" IT > col > fJ


where 00 is such that q( 00 ) = qo and 0, is such that q( Oil = q,. This procedure can be
applied, for instance, to the F test of the linear model in Section 6.1 by taking q( 0) equal to
the noncentrality parameter governing the distribution of the statistic under the alternative.
Implicit in this calculation is the assumption that POl [T > col is an increasing function
ofn.
We have seen in Example 4.1.5 that a particular test statistic can have a fixed distribu-
tion 0 under the hypothesis. It may also happen that the distribution of Tn as () ranges
over 9, is detennined by a one-dimensional parameter ),(0) so that 9 0 = {O : ),(0) = o}
aild 9, = {O : ),(0) > O} and Co (Tn) = C'(') (Tn) for all O. The theory we have devel-
oped demonstrates that if C,(Tn ) is an MLR family, then rejecting for large values of Tn
is UMP among all tests based on Tn. Reducing the problem to choosing among such tests
comes from invariance consideration that we do not enter into until Volume II. However,
we illustrate what can happen with a simple example.
Example 4.3.7. Testing Precision Continued. Suppose that in the Gaussian model of Ex-
ample 4.3.4, J. is unknown. Then the MLE of 0- 2 is (}'2 = ~ E~ 1 (Xi - Xf as in Example
2.2.9. Although H : 0- = 0-0 is now composite, the distribution of Tn =ni:T 2/ (15 is X;-l'
independent of IJ.. Thus, the critical value for testing H : 0- = (10 versus K : 0- < (10 and
rejecting H if Tn is small, is the a percentile of X~-l' It is evident from the argument of
Example 4.3.3 that this test is UMP for H : (1 > (10 versus K : 0- < (10 among all tests
depending on <;2 only. 0

Complete Families of Tests

The Neyman-Pearson framework is based on using the 0-1 loss function. We may :
1 ask whether decision procedures other than likelihood ratio tests arise if we consider loss i
functions l(O, a), a E A = {O, I}, 0 E 9, that are not 0-1. For instance, for 9, = (tm, 00),
we may consider l(O, 0) = (B - Bo), 0 E 9,. In general, when testing H : 0 < 00 versus
K : B > Bo, a reasonable class of loss functions are those that satisfy
j
1


1(0,1) -1(0,0) >
I(O,l)-l(O,O)<O
forB < 00
forB>B o.
(4.3.4)
j
j
,1,
,. ,

I
Section 4.4 Confidence Bounds, Intervals, and Regions 233

The class D of decision procedures is said to be complete(I),(2) if for any decision rule 'P
there exists Ea v such that

R(O,o) < R(O, 1") for all 0 E e. (4.3.5)

That is, if the model is correct and loss function is appropriate, then any procedure not
in the complete class can be matched or improved at all () by one in the complete class,
Thus, it isn't worthwhile to look outside of complete classes. In the following the decision
procedures arc test functions.
Theorem 4.3.2. Suppose {Po: 0 E e}, e c R, is an MLR family in T( x) and suppose
the loss function 1(0, a) satisfies (4.3.4), then the class of tests of the form (4.3.3) with
Eo,(X) = ", 0 < " < 1, is complete.
Proof. The risk function of any test rule 'P is

R(O,I") ~ EO{I"(X)I(O, 1) + [1 -1"(X)]I(O,O)}


= E,{1(8,O) + [1(0, 1) -1(O,O)]I"(X)}

Let o,(X) be such that, for some 00 E"o,(X) = E"I"(X) > O. If E,I"(X) 0 for allO=
then O=(X) clearly satisfies (4.3.5). Now 0, is UMP for H : 0 < 00 versus K: 8 > 8 0 by
Theorem 4.3.1 and, hence,

R(O,o,) - R(O, 1") = (1(0, 1) -1(0, O))(E,(o,(x)) - E,(I"(X))) < 0 for 8 > 8 0 .
(4.3.6)

But 1 - 0, is similarly UMP for H : 0 > 8 0 versus K : 0 < 00 (Problem 4.3.12) and,
hence. E,(I-o,(X)) = 1- E,o,(X) > 1- E,I"(X) for 0 < 00 . Thus. (4.3.5) holds for
all 8. 0
Summary. We consider models {Po : () E e} for which there exist tests that are most
e
powerful for every () in a composite alternative t (UMP tests). For () real, a model is said
to be monotone likelihood ratio (MLR) if the simple likelihood ratio statistic for testing ()o
versus 8 1 is an increasing function of a statistic T( x) for every ()o < ()1, For MLR models,
the test that rejects H : 8 < 8 0 for large values of T(x) is UMP for K : 8 > 8 0 , In
such situations we show how sample size can be chosen to guarantee minimum power for
alternatives a given distance from H, We also show how, when UMP tests do not exist,
locally most powerful (LMP) tests in some cases can be found. Finally, we show that for
MLR models, the class of NP tests is complete in the sense that for loss functions other
than the 0-1 loss function, the risk of any procedure can be matched or improved by an NP
test.

4.4 CONFIDENCE BOUNDS, INTERVALS, AND


REGIONS
We have in Chapter 2 considered the problem of obtaining precise estimates of parameters
and we have in this chapter treated the problem of deciding whether the parameter {J i" a
234 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

member of a specified set 8 0 , Now we consider the problem of giving confidence bounds,
intervals, or sets that constrain the parameter with prescribed probability 1 - a. As an
illustration consider Example 4.1.4 where X I, ... 1 X n are i.i.d. N (/1, ( 2 ) with (72 known.
Suppose that J-L represents the mean increase in sleep among patients administered a drug.
Then we can use the experimental outcome X = (Xl, ... , X n ) to establish a lower bound
,,(X) for" with a prescribed probability (1 - a) of being correct. In the non-Bayesian
framework,,, is a constant, and we look for a statistic ,,(X) that satisfies P(,,(Xj < ,,) =
1 - Q with 1 - Q equal to ,95 Or some other desired level of confidence. In our example
this is achieved by writing

By solving the inequality inside the probability for tt, we find

P(X - o-z(1 - a)l.,fri < ,,) =1- a

and
,,(X) = X - o-z(1 - a)l.,fri
is a lower bound with P(,,(X) < ,,) = I-a. We say that ,,(X) is a lower confidence
bound with confidence level 1 - a.
Similarly, as in (1.3.8), we may be interested in an upper bound on a parameter. In the
, N(", 0- 2 ) example this means finding a statistic ii(X) snch that P(ii(X) > ,,) = 1 - a;
and a solution is
ii(X) = X + O"z(1 - a)I.,fri.

Here ii(X) is called an upper level (1 - a) confidence bound for ".


Finally, in many situations where we want an indication of the accuracy of an estimator,
we want both lower and upper bounds. That is. we want to find a such that the probability
that the interval [X - a, X + a] contains pis 1 - a. We find such an interval by noting

,!

and solving the inequality inside the probability for p. This gives

.,
where
j
I ,,(X) ~ X o-z (1- !a)/.,fri.
We say that [j,- (X), ,,+(X)] is a level (1 - a) confidence interval for ".
In general, if v ~ v(P), PEP. is a parameter, and X ~ P, X E Rq, it may not
be possible for a bound or interval to achieve exactly probability (1 - a) for a prescribed
(1- a) such as .95. In this case, we settle for a probability at least (1 - a). That is, . ,,
11 I

J
Section 4,4 Confidence Bounds, Intervals, and Regions 235

Definition 4.4.1. A statistic v(X) is called a level (1 - O!) lower confidence bound for v if
for every PEP,

P[v(X) < vi > I - o.


Similarly, D(X) is called a level (1 - a) upper confidence bound for v if for every PEP,

P[v(X) = v] > 1-0.

Moreover, the random interval [v( X), ii( Xl] formed by a pair of statistics v(X), v(X)
is a level (I - 0) or a 100(1 - 0)% confidence intervolfor v if, for all PEP,

P[v(X) < v < v(X)] > I - o.

The quantities on the left are called the probabilities of coverage and (1 - a) is called
a confidence level.
For a given bound or interval, the confidence level is clearly not unique because any
number (I - 0') < (J - 0) will be a confidence level if (I - 0) is. In order to avoid
this ambiguity it is convenient to define the confidence coefficient to be the largest possible
confidence level. Note that in the case of intervals this is just

inf{ PI!c(X) < v < v(X), P E PI}

(i.e., the minimum probability of coverage). For the normal measurement problem we have
just discussed the probability of coverage is independent of P and equals the confidence
coefficient.
Example 4,4.1, The (Student) t Interval and Bounds. Let X t , .. " X n be a sample from a
N(J.L, (72) population, and assume initially that (72 is known. In the preceding discussion we
used the fact tbat Z (1') = Jii(X - 1')1". has a N(o, I) distribu~on to obtain a confidence
interval for I' by solving -z (1 - !o) < Z(I') < z (1- ~o) for 1'. In this process Z(I')
is called a pivot. In general, finding confidence intervals (or bounds) often involves finding
appropriate pivots. Now we tum to the (72 unknown case and propose the pivot T(J.L)
obtained by replacing (7 in Z(J.L) by its estimate s, where

S
2
= 1 L (X;- X)-
n
2
.
n-I
i=l

lhat is, we will need the distribution of

Now Z(I') = Jii(X -1')/". has aN(O, 1) distribution and is, by Theorem B.3.3, inde-
pendent of V = (n - l)s2 lIT', which has a X~-l distribution. We conclude from the
definition of the (Student) t distribution in Section B.3.! that Z(iL)1 "jVI(n - 1) = T(I')
236 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4
1,

has the t distribution 7,1-1 whatever be I-l and (72. Let tk (p) denote the pth quantile of the
Tj, distribution. Then

P (-t n- 1 (I - ~a) < T(J.l) < t n_ 1 (1- ~a)) = 1- Q.


Solving the inequality inside the probability for J-t, we find

P [X - stn_ 1 (I - ~a)/..;n < J.l < X + st n_ 1 (1- ~a)/..;nJ = 1-"


The shortest level (I - ,,) confidence interval of the type X sc/..;n is, thus,
[X - st n_l (1- ~,,)/.fii, X +stn _ 1 (1- ~,,)/ v'n]. (4.4.1)

Similarly, X - st n _ 1 (I - a) /.fii and X + stn- l (I - ,,) /.fii are natural lower and
upper confidence bounds with confidence coefficients (1 - Q).
To calculate the coefficients t n- 1 (1 - !a) and tn-dl - a), we use a calculator,
computer software, or Tables I and II. For instance, if n = 9 and a = 0.01, we enter
Table II to find that the probability that a 'Tn-I variable exceeds 3.355 is .005. Hence,
t n - l (I - ~a) = 3.355 and
IX - 3.355s/3, X + 3.355s/31 ,

is the desired level 0.99 confidence intervaL
From the results of Section B.7 (see Problem 8.7.12), we see that as n ---+ 00 the Tn_l
distribution converges in law to the standard normal distribution. For the usual values of a,
" we can reasonably replace t n - 1 (p) by the standard normal quantile z(p) for n > 120.
~. Up to this point, we have assumed that Xl, ... , X n are i.i.d. N (p" a 2 ). It turns out
,r, that the distribution of the pivot T(J.l) is fairly close to the Tn - 1 distribution if the X's
have a distribution that is nearly symmetric and whose tails are not much heavier than the
normal. In this case the interval (4.1.1) has confidence coefficient close to 1 - a. On
, the other hand, for very skew distributions such as the X2 with few degrees of freedom,
,,
or very heavy-tailed distributions such as the Cauchy, the confidence coefficient of (4.1.1)
can be much larger than 1 - a. The properties of confidence intervals such as (4.4.1) in
non-Gaussian situations can be investigated using the asymptotic and Monte Carlo methods
,, introduced in Chapter 5. See Figure 5.3.1. If we assume a 2 < 00. the interval will have
,
, probability (1 - a) in the limit as n --+ 00. 0
i
'1 Example 4.4.2. Confidence Intervals and Bounds for the Vartance of a Normal Distri-
!.
bution. Suppose that X 1, ... ,Xn is a sample from a N(p" a 2 ) population. By Theorem
B .3.1, V( <7 2 ) = (n - 1 )s2/<7 2 has a X;-1 distribution and can be used as a pivot. Thus, if
we let Xn -l(p) denote the pth quantile of the X~-1 distribution, and if al + a2 = a, then

P(X("I) < V(<7 2) < x(l- "2)) = 1-".


By solving the inequality inside the probability for a 2 we find that

[(n - l)s2/X(1- "2)' (n - l)s2/X("I)1 (4.4.2)

is a confidence interval with confidence coefficient (1 - a).

f.
,",
Section 4-4 Confidence Bounds, Intervals, and Regions 237

The length of this interval is random. There is a unique choice of cq and a2, which
unifonnly minimizes expected length among all intervals of this type. It may be shown that
for n large, taking at = (Y2 = ~a is not far from optimal (Tate and Klett, 1959).
The pivot V( (T2) similarly yields the respective lower and upper confidence bounds
(n - l)sjx(1 - Q) and (n - l)sjx(Q).
In contrast to Example 4.4.1, if we drop the nonnality assumption, the confidence inter-
val and bounds for (T2 do not have confidence coefficient 1- a even in the limit as n -----+ 00.
Asymptotic methods and Monte Carlo experiments as described in Chapter 5 have shown
that the confidence coefficient may be arbitrarily small depending on the underlying true
distribution, which typically is unknown. In Problem 1.1.16 we give an interval with cor-
rect limiting coverage probability. 0
The method of pivots works primarily in problems related to sampling from nonnal
populations. If we consider "approximate" pivots, the scope of the method becomes much
broader. We illustrate by an example.
Example 4.4.3. Approximate Confidence Bounds and Intervalsfor the Probability of Suc-
cess in n Bernoulli Trials. If X I, ... 1 X n are the indicators of n Bernoulli trials with
probability of success (j, then X is the MLE of (j. There is no natural "exact" pivot based
on X and O. However, by the De Moivre-Laplace theorem, vIn(X - O)j )0(1 - 0) has
approximately a N(O, 1) distribution. If we use this function as an "approximate" pivot
and let:=:::::: denote "approximate equality," we can write

P [ vIn(X - 0) < z (1-


)0(1 - 0) -
1Ql] = 1-
2
Q.

Let ka = Z (1 - ~ a) and observe that this is equivalent to

P [(X- - 0) ,k'
< ;;0(1- 0) ] = Plg(O,X)
- < OJ'" 1- Q

where

g(O,X) = (1+ k!) 0' - (2X + ~) e+X 2

For fixed 0 < X < I, g( 0, X) is a quadratic polynomial with two real roots. In tenns of
S = nX, they are(1)

O(X) {S + k2~ - ka)[S(n - S)jn] + k~j4} / (n + k~)


(4.4.3)
O(X) {S + k2~ + ka)[S(n - S)jn] + k~j4} / (n + k~).
Because the coefficient of (j2 in g(() 1 X) is greater than zero,

[0: g(O, X) < OJ = ~(X) < 0 < B(X)]' (4.4.4)


238 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

so that [O(X), O(X)] is an approximate level (1 - a) confidence interval for O. We can


similarly show that the endpoints of the level (1 - 2a) interval are approximate upper and
lower level (1 - a) confidence bounds. These inlervals and bounds are satisfactory in
practice for the usual levels, if the smaller of nO, n(l - 8) is at least 6. For small n, it is
better to use the exact level (1 - a) procedure developed in Section 4.5. A discussion is
given in Brown, Cai, and Das Gupta (2000).
Note that in this example we can detennine the sample size needed for desired accu-
racy. For instance, consider the market researcher whose interest is the proportion B of a
population that will buy a product. He draws a sample of n potential customers, calls will-
ingness to buy success, and uses the preceding model. He can then detennine how many
customers should be sampled so that (4.4.4) has length 0.02 and is a confidence interval
with confidence coefficient approximately 0.95. To see this, note that the length, say I. of
the interval is

I ~ 2ko { JIS(n - S)ln] + kzJ4}(n + k~)-l


Now use the fact that

S(n - S)ln ~ tn - n- 1
(S - ~n)2 < tn (4.4.5)

to conclude that

(4.4.6)

Thus. to bound I above by 10 = 0.02. we choose n so that ka.(n + k~)-~ = 10 . That is, we
choose
,.
,
,
n
ko
= T;; -
2
kcc
i
,

[n this case. 1 - ~a = 0.975, ka. = Z (1 - ~a) = 1.96, and we can achieve the desired
length 0.02 by choosing n so that
2
1.96 2
n~ 0.02 ) - (1.96) = 9,600.16, or n = 9,601.
(
i
This fonnula for the sample size is very crude because (4.4.5) is used and it is only good 1
when 8 is near 1/2. Better results can be obtained if one has upper or lower bounds on 8 I
such as 8 < 00 < ~,O > 8 1 > ~. See Problem 4.4.4.
" Another approximate pivot for this example is yIn(X - 0)1 JX(1 - X). This leads
,
,
to the simple interval

(4.4,7) i

See Brown, Cai. and Das Gupta (2000) for a discussion. o 1

[,:
i-
I
j
Section 4-4 Confidence Bounds, Intervals, and Regions 239

Confidence Regions for Functions of Parameters

We can define confidence regions for a function q(O) as random subsets of the range of
q that cover the true value of q(O) with probability at least (1 - 0'). Note that ifC(X) is a
level (1 ~ 0') confidence region for 0, then

q(C(X)) ~ {q(O) . 0 E C(X)}


is a level (1- 0') confidence region for q(O).
Example 4.4.4. Let Xl, ... ,X n denote the number of hours a sample of internet sub-
scribers spend per week on the Internet. Suppose X I, ... , X n is modeled as a sample from
an exponential, (8- 1 ), distribution, and suppose we want a confidence interval for the
population proportion P(X ? x) of subscribers that spend at least x hours per week on
the Internet. Here q(O) = 1 - F(x) = exp{ -x/O}. By Problem B.3.4, 2nX/0 has a
chi~square, X~n' distribution. By using 2nX /0 as a pivot we find the (1 - a) confidence
interval
2nX/x (I - ~a) < 0 <2nX/x (~a)
where x(j3) denotes the 13th quantile of the X~n distribution. Let 0 and edenote the lower
and upper boundaries of this interval, then

exp{ -x/O} < q(O) < exp{ -x/i)}


is a confidence interval for q( 0) with confidence coefficient (1 - a).
If q is not 1 - 1, this technique is typically wasteful. That is, we can find confidence
regions for q( 0) entirely contained in q( C(X)) with confidence level (1 - a). For instance,
we will later give confidence regions C(X) for pairs 8 = (0 1 , ( 2 ) T. In this case, if q( B) =
01 , q(C(X)) is larger than the confidence set obtained by focusing on B1 alone.
Confidence Regions of Higher Dimension
We can extend the notion of a confidence interval for one-dimensional functions q( B)
to r-dimensional vectors q( 0) = (q, (0), ... , qc (0)). Suppose q (X) and ii) (X) are real-
-J
valued. Then the r-dimensional random rectangle

I(X) = {q(O). ~;(X) < q;(O) < ii;(X), j ~ I, ... ,r}


is said to be a level (1 - a) confidence region, if the probability that it covers the unknown
but fixed true (ql (0), ... , qc( 0)) is at least (I - a). We write this as

P[q(O) E I(X)I > 1- a


Note that if I; (X) ~ [q, ii; I is a level (I - a;) confidence interval for qj (0) and if the
-)
pairs (T l ' 1',), ... , (T c' Tc ) are independent, then the rectangle I( X) = h (X) x ... x
Ic(X) has level

IT(1-a;). (4.4.8)
j==1
240 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

Thus, an r-dimensional confidence rectangle is in this case automaticalll obtained from


the one-dimensional intervals. Moreover, if we choose 0' j = 1 - (1 - a) r, then leX) has
confidence level 1 - 0:.
An approach that works even if the I j are not independent is to use Bonferroni's in-
equality (A.2.7). According to this inequality,
c c

P[q(O) E I(X)] > 1- LP[qj(O) '" Ij(X)1 > 1- Laj.


j=1 j=1

Thus, if we choose a J = air, j = 1, ... , r, then I(X) has confidence level (1 - a).
Example 4.4.5. Confidence Rectangle for the Parameters ofa Normal Distribution. Sup-
pose Xl, ... 1 X n is a N (M, ( 2 ) sample and we want a confidence rectangle for (Ii, (7 2).
From Example 4.4.1

h(X) = X stn_l (1- ~a)/-rn


is a confidence interval for J1 with confidence coefficient (1 - !a). From Example 4.4.2.

I (X) _ [(n-l)S2 (n-l)S2]


2 - Xn-l (1 - ia)' Xn-l (lo)

is a reasonable confidence interval for (72 with confidence coefficient (1- ~a). Thus,
h (X) X 12 (X) is a level (1 - a) confidence rectangle for (/-" ,,2). It is possible to show
that the exact confidence coefficient is (1 - 40) 2. See Problem 4.4.15. 0
The method of pivots can also be applied to oo-dimensional parameters such as F.
Example 4.4.6. Suppose Xl> . .. , X n are i.i.d. as X rv P, and we are interested in the
distribution function F(t) = P(X < t); that is, v(P) = F(). We assume that F is
continuous, in which case (Proposition 4.1.1) the distribution of
... ,
~
~'f
Dn(F) = sup IF(t) - F(t)1
tEn
i"
does not depend on F and is known (Example 4.1.5). That is, D n (F) is a pivot. Let dO' be
chosen such that PF(Dn(F) < do) = 1 - a. Then by solving Dn(F) < do for F, we
find that a simultaneous in t size 1- 0 confidence region C(x)() is the confidence band i
which, for each t E R, consists of the interval J

I
~ ~

C(x)(t) = (max{O, F(t) - do}, min{l, F(t) + do})

We have shown

P(C(X)(t) :) F(t) for all t E R) =1- a


for all P E 'P = set of P with P( -00, tl continuous in t. o
Section 4.5 The Duality Between Confidence Regions and Tests 241

We can apply the notions studied in Examples 4.4.4 and 4.4.5 to give confidence regions
for scalar or vector parameters in nonparametric models.
Example 4.4.7. A Lower Confidence Boundfor the Mean of a Nonnegative Random Vari-
able. Suppose Xl, ... , X n are i.i.d. as X and that X has a density f( t) = F' (t), which is
zero for t < 0 and nonzero for t > O. By integration by parts. if J.! ~ /L(F) = f o= tf(t)dt
exists, then

- -
Let F-(t) and F+(t) be the lower and upper simultaneous confidence boundaries of Ex-
ample 4.4.6. Then a (1 - 0') lower confidence bound for /1. is /1. given by

(4.4.9)

because for C(X) as in Example 4.4.6, J.! ~ inf{J.!(F) : F E C(X)} = J.!(F+) and -
sUP{J.!(F) : F E C(X)) ~ -
J.!(F-) ~ oo-see Problem 4.4.19.
Intervals for the case F supported on an interval (see Problem 4.4.18) arise in ac-
counting practice (see Bickel, 1992) where such bounds are discussed and shown to be
asymptotically strictly conservative. 0
Summary. We define lower and upper confidence bounds (LCBs and DCBs). confidence
intervals, and more generally confidence regions. In a parametric model {Pe : BEe},
a level 1 - 0: confidence region for a parameter q(B) is a set C(x) depending only on the
data x such that the probability under Pe that C(X) covers q( 8) is at least 1 - 0: for all
o E e. For a nonparametric class P ~ {P} and parameter v ~ v(P), we similarly
require P(C(X) :J v) > 1- " for all PEP. We derive the (Student) t interval for I'
in the N(I-l, a 2 ) model with a 2 unknown, and we derive an exact confidence interval for
the binomial parameter. In a nonparametric setting we derive a simultaneous confidence
interval for the distribution function F( t) and the mean of a positive variable X.

4.5 THE DUALITY BETWEEN CONFIDENCE


REGIONS AND TESTS
Confidence regions are random subsets of the parameter space that contain the true param-
eter with probability at least 1 - 0'. Acceptance regions of statistical tests are, for a given
hypothesis H, subsets of the sample space with probability of accepting H at least 1 - 0:
when H is true. We shall establish a duality between confidence regions and acceptance
regions for families of hypotheses.
We begin by illustrating the duality in the following example.
Example 4.5.1. 1Wo-Sided Tests for the Mean of a Normal Distribution. Suppose that an
established theory postulates the value Po for a certain physical constant. A scientist has
reasons to believe that the theory is incorrect and measures the constant n times obtaining
242 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

measurements Xl ..... Xl!_ Knowledge of his instruments leads him to assume that the
Xi are independent and identically distributed normal random variables with mean {L and
variance a 2 . If any value of J.l other than flo is a possible alternative, then it is reasonable
to formulate the problem as that of testing H : f-l = J-lo versus K : f-l i- f-lO.
We can base a size Q' test on the level (1 - Q) confidence interval (4.4.1) we constructed
for Jl as follows. We accept H. if and only if, the postulated value J-Lo is a member of the
level (1 - 0' ) confidence interval

[X - Sln-l (1- ~a) /vn, X + Sln-l (1 - ~a) /vn], (4.5'[)

If we let T = vn(X - fLo)/ s, then our test accepts H, if and only if, -t n - 1 (1 - !a) <
T < I n- l (1- ~a). Because p"IITI = I n- 1 (1- ~a)] = 0 the test is equivalently
characterized by rejecting H when ITI > tn-l (1 - ~Ct). This test is called two-sided
because it rejects for both large and small values of the statistic T. In contrast to the tests
of Example 4. 1.4, it has power against parameter values on either side of flo.
Because the same interval (4.5.1) is used for every flo we see that we have. in fact,
generated a family of level a tests {J(X, /l)} where

lifvnIX;~1 >tn_l(l-~a)
(4.5.2)
ootherwise.
These tests correspond to different hypotheses, O{X, Jlo) being of size a only for the hy-
pothesis H : Jl = flo
Conversely, by starting with the test (4.5.2) we obtain the confidence interval (4.5.1)
by finding the set of /l where J(X, /l) ~ O.
We achieve a similar effect, generating a family of level a tests, if we start out with
(say) the level (1 - a) LCB X - I n - 1 (1 - a)s/ vn and define J'(X, /l) to equal 1 if, and
only if, X - I n _ 1 (1- a)s/vn > /l. Evidently,

= 1- a.
o
These are examples of a general phenomenon. Consider the general framework where
the random vector X takes values in the sample space X C Rq and X has distribution
PEP. Let v = v{P) be a parameter that takes values in the set N. For instance,
in Example 4.4.1, /l = /l(P) takes values in N = (-00,00), in Example 4.4.2, ,,2 =
,,2(p) takes values in N = (0,00), and in Example 4.4.5, (/" ,,2) takes values in N =
(-00 , 00) X (0,00). For a function space example, consider v(P) = F. as in Example
4.4.6. where F is the distribution function of Xi' Here an example of N is the class of all
continuous distribution functions. Let S = S{X) be a map from X to subsets of N, then
S is a (I - a) confidence region for v if the probability that S(X) contains v is at least
(1 - a), that is

P[v E S(X)] > 1 - a, all PEP.

i:,
.,,,

j
n
Section 4.5 The Duality Between Confidence Regions and Tests 243

Next consider the testing framework where we test the hypothesis H = Hvo : v = Va
for some specified value va. Suppose we have a test 15(X, va) with level 0". Then the
acceptance regIOn

A(vo) ~ (x: J(x,vo) = OJ


is a subset of X with probability at least 1 - 0". For some specified Va, H may be accepted,
for other specified Va, H may be rejected. Consider the set of Va for which HI/o is accepted;
this is a random set contained in N with probapility at least 1 - 0" of containing the true
value of v(P) whatever be P. Conversely, if S(X) is a level 1 - 0" confidence region for
v, then the test that accepts HI/o if and only if Va is in S(X), is a level 0 test for HI/o.
Formally, let Pvo = (P : v(P) ~ Vo : va E V}. We have the following.
Duality Theorem. Let S(X) = (va EN; X E A(vo)), then

PIX E A(vo)) > 1 - a for all P E P vo

if and only if S (X) is a 1 - Ct confidence region for v.


We next apply the duality theorem to MLR families:
Theorem 4.5.1. Suppose X ~ Po where (Po: 0 E ej is MLR in T = T(X) and suppose
that the distribution function Fo(t) ofT under Po is continuous in each of the variables t
and 0 when the other is fixed. If the equation Fo(t) = 1 - a has a solution O.(t) in e,
then ()u(T) is a lower confidence boundfor () with confidence coefficient 1 - Ct. Similarly,
any solution e.(T) of Fo(T) = a with eo e
E is an upper confidence bound for 0 with
coefficient (1 - Ct). Moreover, if 0"1 + 0"2 < 1, then [QUI' oU2] is confidence interval for ()
with confidence coefficient 1 - (01 + 0"2).
Proof. By Corollary 4.3.1, the acceptance region of the UMP size a test of H : 0 = 00
e
versus K : > ()a can be written

A(Oo) = (x: T(x) < too (1- a))


where to o (1 - Ct) is the 1- 0" quantile of F oo By the duality theorem, if

8(t) = (O E e: t < to(1 - a)},


then 8(T) is a I-a confidence region forO. By applying F o to hoth sides oft < to(l-a),
we find

8(t) = (O E e: Fo(t) < 1- aj.


By Theorem 4.3.1, the power function Po(T > t) = 1 - Fo(t) for a test with critical
constant t is increasing in (). That i~, Fe (t) is decreasing in (). It follows that Fe (t) < 1 - G
iff 0 > Iia(t) and 8(t) = Ilia, 00). The proofs for the npper confid~nce hound and interval
follow by the same type of argument, 0
We next give connections between confidence bounds, acceptance regions, and p-values
for MLR families: Let t denote the observed value t = T(x) ofT(X) for the datum x, let
1
1
244 Testing and Confidence Regions Chapter 4

o:(t, 00 ) denote the p-value for the UMP size Q' test of H : () = eo versus K : () > eo, and
let
A"(B) = T(A(B)) = {T(x) : x E A(B)).