a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The main aim of this article is to identify systematic reviews of explanatory risk factors for violence, offending,
Received 25 July 2016 and delinquency. Explanatory risk factors are factors that are clearly measuring an underlying construct that is
Accepted 7 November 2016 different from antisocial behavior. Based on searches for articles published between 2000 and 2016, 216 relevant
Available online 14 November 2016
studies were located and screened, and 42 systematic reviews were included in the analysis: 11 concerned with
crime or violence, seven with delinquency or youth violence, eight with sex offending, and 16 with dating or in-
Keywords:
Systematic reviews
timate partner violence. Twenty systematic reviews included meta-analyses, but few of these reviewed a wide
Explanatory risk factors range of risk factors. These meta-analyses show the strength of relationships between risk factors and outcomes.
Violence More systematic reviews and meta-analyses of risk factors are needed to advance knowledge. It is highly desir-
Offending able to have reviews of longitudinal studies, reviews that focus on explanatory risk factors, and reviews that re-
Delinquency port both overall effect sizes and effect sizes after controlling for other risk factors.
2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction next did not predict changes in a boy's delinquency from one assess-
ment to the next, whereas changes in parental supervision from one as-
The main aim of this article is to identify systematic reviews of ex- sessment to the next did predict changes in a boy's delinquency from
planatory risk factors for violence, offending, and delinquency. Explana- one assessment to the next. They therefore concluded that parental su-
tory risk factors are factors that are clearly measuring an underlying pervision might be a cause of delinquency (or an explanatory risk fac-
construct that is different from antisocial behavior. They include indi- tor) but peer delinquency was not.
vidual factors such as low intelligence, low achievement, high impul- Systematic reviews have explicit objectives, explicit criteria for inclu-
siveness, low empathy, and attention decit; family factors such as sion or exclusion of studies, and searches for studies that are designed
poor child-rearing, poor parental supervision, broken homes, and child to reduce potential bias. They may include a meta-analysis, which is a
abuse or neglect; and social factors such as low socioeconomic status, quantitative summary of effect sizes and their variances. There were rela-
low family income, large family size, poor housing, and living in a tively few systematic reviews in criminology before the foundation of the
high-crime neighborhood (see Farrington, 2015). Campbell Collaboration in 2000 (see Farrington & Petrosino, 2000). There
Non-explanatory risk factors are those that could be measuring the were even fewer systematic reviews of risk factors; most systematic re-
same underlying construct as antisocial behavior. For example, an ag- views and meta-analyses in criminology, both before and after 2000,
gressive attitude is a risk factor for violent behavior, but both an aggres- have aimed to review the effectiveness of interventions (but see
sive attitude and violent behavior could reect the same underlying Gendreau, Little, & Goggin, 1996). A recent book edited by Weisburd,
construct (of, for example, an antisocial personality). Similarly, bullying Farrington, and Gill (2016) assessed systematic reviews of a variety of
and gang membership are viewed as non-explanatory risk factors. The types of interventions, including developmental prevention, situational
most contentious risk factor is peer delinquency. Some researchers prevention, community interventions, policing, sentencing, correctional
argue that peer delinquency is an explanatory risk factor (e.g. that delin- programs, and drug interventions. However, the present article is the
quent peers could cause a person to commit delinquent acts), while rst effort to assess systematic reviews of risk factors in criminology.
others argue that, because delinquency is usually a group activity, delin-
quent adolescents will inevitably have delinquent peers. In the Pitts- 2. Method
burgh Youth Study, Farrington, Loeber, Yin, and Anderson (2002)
found that changes in peer delinquency from one assessment to the Systematic literature searches were conducted in order to identify
systematic reviews and meta-analyses of risk factors for violence,
Corresponding author. offending, and/or delinquency. Several online databases, including
E-mail address: dpf1@cam.ac.uk (D.P. Farrington). Web of Science, PsychINFO, PsychARTICLES, Google Scholar, Scopus,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2016.11.004
1359-1789/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
D.P. Farrington et al. / Aggression and Violent Behavior 33 (2017) 2436 25
Table 1
174 Excluded studies.
Reference Description
Table 1 (continued)
Reference Description
Table 1 (continued)
Reference Description
Table 1 (continued)
Reference Description
ERIC, and Criminal Justice Abstracts, were searched using Boolean oper- outcomes of recidivism or desistance (n = 17) were also excluded (e.g.
ators and the following search terms: systematic review or meta-anal- Basto-Pereira, Comeanha, Ribeiro, & Maia, 2015; Cottle, Lee, &
ysis; and delinquen* or offend* or violen*. In addition, the following Heilbrun, 2001). Of the remaining studies, most were excluded because
terms were included as key words: attainment; achievement; attention they assessed the relationship between relevant risk factors and out-
decit; broken home/separation; child rearing; child abuse/neglect/mal- comes that did not include violence, offending, or delinquency (n =
treatment; community; empathy; family income; family size; impulsive*; 44). For example, Maniglio (2015) conducted a systematic review of
intelligence/IQ; neighborhood; parental supervision/parenting style; risk the mental health-related outcomes of childhood experiences of sexual
factors; and socioeconomic status. These searches covered the period abuse.
from January 2000 to April 2016. Furthermore, hand searches of the Thirteen studies were excluded because they reviewed non-
journal Aggression and Violent Behavior during this time period were explanatory risk factors for violence, offending, or delinquency. For ex-
also conducted. ample, Tto, Farrington, and Lsel (2012) evaluated school bullying as
These searches returned 1993 results, the abstracts of which were a predictor of violence in adulthood. The article by Bowes and
screened for eligibility. The following inclusion criteria were employed McMurran (2013) was also excluded for this reason, as violence-
in order to identify eligible studies for the present review: supportive cognitions may measure the same underlying construct as vi-
olence. Other studies (n = 21) were removed for other reasons, such as
1. The study must be a systematic review or a meta-analysis. not published in 20002016 (e.g. Buehler et al., 1997; Wells & Rankin,
2. Measured outcomes must include violence, offending, or delinquency. 1991), not published in English (e.g. Vives-Cases, Gil-Gonzlez,
3. The study must review psychosocial explanatory risk factors for the Carrasco-Portio, & lvarez-Dardet, 2007), or employing non-
above outcomes. community samples (e.g. Heerde & Hemphill, 2016; Heerde, Hemphill,
4. The study must be based on community samples. & Scholes-Balog, 2014; Lees-Warley & Rose, 2015). Further details
5. The study must be published from January 2000 to April 2016 in En- about all 174 excluded studies are presented in Table 1. We cannot
glish and in peer-reviewed journals. Chapters in edited books (e.g. claim that all of the categories in Table 1 are covered exhaustively. We
Jolliffe & Farrington, 2009) were excluded. were searching for included studies, not for excluded studies. The studies
6. The study can be longitudinal or cross-sectional but not an interven- in Table 1 were identied using the specic search criteria for the current
tion study. review and were later determined to be excluded.
A total of 216 studies passed the initial screening and were obtained 3. Results
and read. The inclusion criteria meant that narrative and theoretical re-
views (n = 41) were excluded as they do not employ rigorous and Table 2 shows the 42 systematic reviews or meta-analyses of risk
clear inclusion/exclusion criteria. For example, Leen et al. (2013) carried factors that were included in our analysis. Eleven were primarily con-
out a narrative review of dynamic risk factors for adolescent dating vio- cerned with crime and/or violence, seven with delinquency or youth vi-
lence. Systematic and meta-analytic reviews of biological or neurological olence, eight with sex offending, and 16 with dating or intimate partner
factors associated with violence, offending, or delinquency (n = 15) violence. The relatively large number of reviews concerned with dating
were also excluded, such as Ortiz and Raine's (2004) review of the asso- or intimate partner violence is noteworthy. Some reviews focused only
ciation between resting heart rate and antisocial behavior in children and on one risk factor (e.g., empathy in the review by *Jolliffe & Farrington,
adolescents. Reviews of psychiatric and clinical risk factors (n = 23) 2004), while others focused on a variety of risk factors (e.g., family fac-
were also excluded. For example, Harris and Picchioni (2013) reviewed tors by *Derzon, 2010). Some reviews included fewer than 10 studies
empathy in individuals with mental disorders. Studies employing (e.g., *Murray, de Castro Cerqueira, & Kahn, 2013), while others
Table 2
42 included studies.
29
(continued on next page)
30
Table 2 (continued)
*Jespersen et al. (2009) Meta-analysis No Child sexual abuse Adult sexual offending Meta-analytic comparison of the prevalence of childhood abuse histories in adult sex offenders
and adult non-sex offenders, as reported in 17 studies.
*McPhail et al. (2013) Meta-analysis No Emotional congruence with Sexual offending against Meta-analysis of 30 studies on the relationship between emotional congruence with children
children children and sexual offending against children.
*Seto and Lalumire (2010) Meta-analysis No Various Male adolescent sexual Meta-analysis of 59 studies assessing the relationship between various risk factors, including
offending victim empathy, impulsivity, and experiences of childhood physical and/or sexual abuse, with
male adolescent sexual offending.
*Tharp et al. (2012) Systematic No Various Sexual violence Systematic review of 191 studies that examine the community, relationship, and
review perpetration individual-level risk factors associated with sexual violence perpetration.
*Whitaker et al. (2008) Meta-analysis No Family factors, self esteem, Sexual offending Meta-analysis of 89 studies assessing the relationship between family risk factors (including
empathy history of abuse, poor family functioning, and poor attachment/bonding), self-esteem, empathy,
and attachment, and perpetration of sexual offenses against children.
Table 3
Main results of 20 meta-analyses.
Reference Results
included more than 100 studies (e.g., *Hoeve et al., 2009). Some reviews weak predictors were young parents, broken homes, and low socioeco-
were restricted to prospective longitudinal studies (e.g. *Derzon, 2010; nomic status.
*Sarkadi, Kristiansson, Oberklaid, & Bremberg, 2008), while other re- *Leschied, Chiodo, Nowicki, and Rodger (2008) reviewed numerous
views presented results separately for longitudinal studies (e.g. *Van childhood and adolescent predictors of adult criminality, but unfortu-
der Ende, Yount, Dynes, & Sibley, 2012). It is easier to draw conclusions nately they combined individual risk factors into larger categories,
about possible causal effects from prospective longitudinal studies than such as parental management, family structure, and adverse family en-
from cross-sectional studies (see e.g., Murray, Farrington, & Eisner, vironment. All of these categories predicted adult criminality. The other
2009). Table 2 shows key features of each systematic review. meta-analyses of risk factors for crime and violence were more specic,
Some reviews were only systematic reviews, while others also car- focusing on empathy (*Jolliffe & Farrington, 2004; *van Langen,
ried out a meta-analysis and reported weighted mean effect sizes. Wissink, van Vugt, van der Stouwe, & Stams, 2014), parental incarcera-
Table 3 shows the main results from the 20 reviews that included tion (*Murray, Farrington, & Sekol, 2012), attachment (*Ogilvie,
meta-analyses. The most commonly reported effect size was Cohen's d Newman, Todd, & Peck, 2014), and maternal cigarette smoking during
(10 reviews), followed by the product moment correlation r (6 re- pregnancy (*Pratt et al., 2006).
views), and the Odds Ratio OR (3 reviews). One review (*Pratt, The researchers sometimes compared overall effect sizes with effect
McGloin, & Fearn, 2006) converted r to z(r) using the Fisher transforma- sizes after controlling for other risk factors. For example, *Jolliffe and
tion, on the grounds that the sampling distribution of z(r) was normal, Farrington (2004) found that affective empathy was not related to
whereas the sampling distribution of r was skewed. These 20 systematic offending after controlling for intelligence or socioeconomic status,
reviews will now be described in more detail. but cognitive empathy continued to be related to offending after con-
*Derzon (2010) carried out one of the most impressive meta- trolling for these other risk factors. *Murray et al. (2012) concluded
analyses, relating numerous family risk factors to criminal, violent, and that parental incarceration predicted criminal behavior even after con-
other types of antisocial behavior. His meta-analysis was based on pro- trolling for parental criminality, suggesting that incarceration had an ef-
spective longitudinal studies, but many predictions were over short fect over and above the intergenerational transmission of criminality.
time periods (less than four years in 55% of cases), many outcome vari- *Hoeve et al. (2009) carried out a very impressive meta-analysis of
ables were measured at relatively young ages (up to age 15 in 40% of parenting risk factors versus delinquency. They reported results for
cases), and many studies were relatively small (less than 200 participants both general categories such as low parental support and for individual
in 43% of cases). The strongest predictors of criminal or violent behavior risk factors such as low parental affection and low parental involve-
were low parental education (r = 0.30 for criminal behavior), poor pa- ment. Numerous parental categories and individual parental risk factors
rental supervision (r = 0.29 for violent behavior), poor child rearing skills were signicantly related to delinquency. In contrast, *Assink et al.
(r = 0.26 for criminal behavior), parental discord (r = 0.26 for criminal (2015) reported the relationship between 14 risk domains and persis-
behavior), and large family size (r = 0.24 for violent behavior). Notably tent delinquency, but not results for individual risk factors. Similarly,
32 D.P. Farrington et al. / Aggression and Violent Behavior 33 (2017) 2436
*Hubbard and Pratt (2002) reported meta-analytic results for risk factor offenders against children. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 44, 4566. http://dx.doi.org/
domains versus female delinquency. The fourth meta-analytic review of 10.1007/s10508-014-0270-x.
Baldry, A. C., Farrington, D. P., & Sorrentino, A. (2015). Am I at risk of cyberbullying? A
delinquency, by *Stams et al. (2006), was more narrowly focused on the narrative review and conceptual framework for research on risk of cyberbullying and
moral judgment of delinquents. cyber victimization: The risk and needs assessment approach. Aggression and Violent
*Babchishin, Hanson, and Van Zuylen (2015) reported a very wide- Behavior, 23, 3651. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2015.05.014.
Barnett, G., & Mann, R. E. (2013). Empathy decits and sexual offending: A model of ob-
ranging review and meta-analysis comparing risk factors for child stacles to empathy. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 18(2), 228239. http://dx.doi.
pornography-only offenders, (ofine) sex offenders against children, org/10.1016/j.avb.2012.11.010.
and (mixed) offenders with both child pornography and contact sex of- Basto-Pereira, M., Comeanha, R., Ribeiro, S., & Maia, A. (2015). Long-term predictors of crime
desistance in juvenile delinquents: A systematic review of longitudinal studies.
fenses against children. They concluded that child pornography-only of- Aggression and Violent Behavior, 25, 332342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2015.09.
fenders had greater psychological barriers against sex offending, such as 012.
greater victim empathy. *Whitaker et al. (2008) also reported a wide- *Baugher, A. R., & Gazmararian, J. A. (2015). Masculine gender role stress and violence: A
literature review and future directions. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 24, 107112.
ranging review and meta-analysis of risk factors for child sexual
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2015.04.002.
abuse, while *Seto and Lalumire (2010) presented an extensive review Baxendale, S., Cross, D., & Johnston, R. (2012). A review of the evidence on the relation-
and meta-analysis of risk factors for adolescent male sexual offending. ship between gender and adolescents' involvement in violent behavior. Aggression
The other reviews in the sex offender category were more specic, fo- and Violent Behavior, 17(4), 297310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2012.03.002.
Bennett, T., Holloway, K., & Farrington, D. (2008). The statistical association between drug
cusing on risk factors for child sexual abuse (*Jespersen, Lalumire, & misuse and crime: A meta-analysis. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 13(2), 107118.
Seto, 2009) and on emotional congruence with children (*McPhail, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2008.02.001.
Hermann, & Nunes, 2013). Benton, D. (2007). The impact of diet on anti-social, violent and criminal behavior.
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*Stith, Smith, Penn, Ward, and Tritt (2004) carried out a wide- neubiorev.2007.02.002.
ranging review of risk factors for intimate partner physical violence per- *Beyer, K., Wallis, A. B., & Hamberger, L. K. (2015). Neighborhood environment and inti-
petration and victimization. Among the most important risk factors for mate partner violence: A systematic review. Trauma, Violence & Abuse, 16(1),
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perpetration were illicit drug use, low marital satisfaction, and attitudes Bjrkly, S. (2009). Risk and dynamics of violence in Asperger's syndrome: A systematic
condoning marital violence. *James, Brody, and Hamilton (2013) also review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 14(5), 306312. http://dx.
carried out a wide-ranging review, of risk factors for domestic violence doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2009.04.003.
Bjrkly, S. (2013). A systematic review of the relationship between impulsivity and vio-
during pregnancy in developed and developing countries. The other
lence in persons with psychosis: Evidence or spin cycle? Aggression and Violent
two reviews in this category were more specic, focusing on peer risk Behavior, 18, 753760. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2013.08.001.
factors (*Garthe, Sullivan, & McDaniel, 2016) and childhood experiences Black, D. A., Heyman, R. E., & Slep, A. M. S. (2001). Risk factors for male-to-female partner
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of family violence (*Smith-Marek et al., 2015).
*Bhm, B., Zollner, H., Fegert, J. M., & Liebhardt, H. (2014). Child sexual abuse in the con-
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4. Conclusions 929607.
Bonta, J., Blais, J., & Wilson, H. A. (2014). A theoretically informed meta-analysis of the risk
Perhaps rather surprisingly, it was possible to locate relatively few for general and violent recidivism for mentally disordered offenders. Aggression and
Violent Behavior, 19, 278287. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2014.04.014.
(only 42) systematic reviews of risk factors for violence, offending,
Book, A. S., Starzyk, K. B., & Quinsey, V. L. (2001). The relationship between testoster-
and delinquency. Even fewer (only 20) reviews have carried out one and aggression: A meta-analysis. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 6(6),
meta-analyses or reviewed a wide range of risk factors, as *Derzon 579599.
Boonmann, C., van Vugt, E. S., Jansen, L. M. C., Colins, O. F., Doreleijers, T. A. H., Stams, G. J.
(2010) did. However, systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individ-
M., & Vermeiren, R. R. J. M. (2015). Mental disorders in juveniles who sexually
ual risk factors, such as low empathy or child abuse, are also extremely offended: A meta-analysis. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 24, 241249. http://dx.
valuable. It is clear that more systematic reviews and meta-analyses of doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2015.06.003.
risk factors are needed to advance knowledge. Some of the existing re- Bowes, N., & McMurran, M. (2013). Cognitions supportive of violence and violent behavior.
Aggression and Violent Behavior, 18, 660665. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2013.07.
views report the strength of relationships between risk factors and out- 015.
comes, but more information about this is needed. Information about Bragado-Jimenez, M. D., & Taylor, P. J. (2012). Empathy, schizophrenia and violence: A
relative effect sizes is important in developing and testing theories. It systematic review. Schizophrenia Research, 141, 8390. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.
schres.2012.07.019.
is highly desirable to have reviews of longitudinal studies, reviews Branas, C. C., Han, S., & Wiebe, D. J. (2016). Alcohol use and rearm violence. Epidemiologic
that focus on explanatory risk factors, and reviews that report both Reviews, 38, 3245. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mx010.
overall effect sizes and effect sizes after controlling for other risk factors. Buehler, C., Anthony, C., Krishnakumar, A., Stone, G., Gerard, J., & Pemberton, S. (1997).
Interparental conict and youth problem behaviors: A meta-analysis. Journal of
These types of reviews should signicantly advance knowledge about Child and Family Studies, 6(2), 233247.
possible causal risk factors for violence, offending, and delinquency. In Buker, H. (2011). Formation of self-control: Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of
turn, they should help in designing the next generation of intervention crime and beyond. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 16(3), 265276. http://dx.doi.
org/10.1016/j.avb.2011.03.005.
studies that target important risk factors.
Bundock, L., Howard, L. M., Trevillion, K., Malcolm, E., Feder, G., & Oram, S. (2013). Prev-
alence and risk experiences of intimate partner violence among people with eating
disorders: A systematic review. Journal of Psychiatric Research, 47, 11341142.
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