In Partial fulfilment for the requirements for

RETMANT

Submitted by:

Bacierto, Martin France J.

Calalo, Cymond

Pineda, Victoria

Valeroso, Andrea

Submitted to:

Ms. Eppie Clark

 1. Apply delay1 for birth before a person becomes part of the birth giving
population. Identify the effect of each. Assume that it takes 14 years before maturity. Do
the same for delay2 and delay3.

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Figure 1. Comparison of birth rate with different degree of delay
 Figure 2. Comparison of population with different degree of delay

As seen from Figure 1, the delay function slows down the birth rate, which in turn, slows down
the increase in the population (see Figure 2). Thus, an increase in the degree of delay, the slower
the birth rate will be, which would then lead to the slow growth of the population. In real life
scenarios, using delay is an appropriate tool to provide realistic approximates to natural models
such as population (Ruan, 2006). This is done in order to represent maturation periods in the
population model.

2. Use ramp to generate a constant increase in birth before resuming back to its normal rate.

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 The Ramp function allows for a constant increase in a variable at a specific time. In this
case, a ramp will be used on the birth rate to see its effects on the population growth. Some cases
in which ramp would exist in a real world scenario in relation to birth rates is when the
government would encourage the population to procreate in instances where the population of a
country is in a decline.
To see the effect of a ramp on the birth rate as compared to the original scenario. A ramp
function with a slope of 5 was added starting at time 10 to see its effect on the birth rate. To bring
the birth rate function back to the normal rate, a ramp function was again added, now having a
slope of -5 to cancel out the previous effect of the ramp function. The ramp to cancel out the
initial ramp is set to take effect at time 12 so that the graph would not spike up too much so that

the effects of the cancellation can still be seen.

Figure 3. Comparison of Population with ramp vs. Population without ramp
 Figure 4. Comparison of Birth Rate with Ramp vs without ramp

Based from the two figures produced by the model, the effects of the ramp, while it only
lasted for 2 years, had a large effect on the population growth. During the two years that the
ramp is present, the birth rate spiked upwards such that the population was able to grow
significantly. When the ramp was removed, the population was already comparatively high than
the original scenario which resulted to a higher birth rate value compared when the ramp did not
occur.
3. Use step to generate a sudden increase in birth, before going back to its normal rate.

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Figure 5. Comparison of Birth rate with Step vs. without Step
 Figure 6. Comparison of Population with Step vs without Step
The Step function allows a variable to shift from a particular value at a specified amount of time.
In the model, the fraction of women giving birth, varies over time through the use of step
function. In the equation below,

The fraction of women giving birth starts at 0.1, and increases by 0.05 at year 10 and decreases
by 0.05 at year 30. The increase in the fraction of women giving birth would represent the
sudden increase in the population and the decrease by 0.05 at year 30 normalizes the birth rate
once more. In real applications, a sudden increase in the birth rate may be caused by the
technological advancement in fertility treatment, which enables couples who are unable to
conceive to have their own babies. A balancing factor which may contribute to the sudden
decrease of birth rate which would lead to its original normal rate would be the banning by the
government of the use of the fertility treatment after 20 years having been found out that the
treatment would have an adverse effect on both the mother and on the development of the child.

4. Use pulse to generate sudden regular increases across time for birth

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The Pulse function allows for multiple short bursts of an increase in a variable with a specified
magnitude, duration of the bursts, starting time that the bursts will occur, and the time between
each bursts. In this case, the pulse function will be applied to the birth rate function. Some
instances where this could happen in population growth model would be when there are multiple
efforts by the government to incentivise procreation but fails to make those projects sustainable.
In order to see the effect of the pulse function in the population model, the pulse was
added to the fraction of the women giving birth by the pulse which have a height of 0.1 that lasts
for 0.2 years, starts at the 10th year and and occurs every 3 years.
 Figure 7. Comparison of Birth rate with pulse vs. without pulse

Figure 8. Comparison of Population with pulse vs. without pulse

The presence of these bursts allowed the population to grow only slightly better than the
original trend of growth. Based from Figure 8, while the bursts of increase in the birthrate have a
large value especially in the later years, the duration of these bursts are too short for it to have a
significant increase in the birth rate. However, even while this is the case, the increase is still
there and comparing the two population trends, the gap between the two scenarios is slightly
getting bigger through time. This means that given enough time, the difference between the two
scenarios will become significant.

5. Use a table to represent changes in average life as population increases.

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Figure 10. Comparison of Death rate with table function vs. without table function
 Figure 11. Comparison of Population with table function vs. without table function

The table function is used in order to model non-linear relationships between two variables,
which cannot be represented by an equation (Gilbert et al., 2005). Comparing the graph of the
original population to that of using defined values using the table function, it can be noted that
the behavior of the population did not change, considering that using the table function, only
specific points of the graph have a different value from the one generated by the normal
population equation while the rest of the points follow the behavior that is dictated by the
variables of the equation. For this reason, after some time, the graph of the population modelled
using the table function, would be exactly the same as the graph of the original population.

References:

Gilbert, Nigel, Troitzsch, & Klaus. (2005). Simulation For The Social Scientist. McGraw-Hill
Education (UK).
Ruan, S. (2006). DELAY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS IN SINGLE SPECIES DYNAMICS.
Delay Differential Equations and Applications , 477-517.