Eliezer Yudkowsky

Luke Muehlhauser
EvanT


Eliezer Yudkowsky
Luke Muelhauser
EvanT
 2003 Eliezer S. Yudkowsky 2003 Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
(cc) 2011 Luke Muehlhauser (cc) 2011 Luke Muehlhauser
(cc) 2011 EvanT (cc) 2011 EvanT

Some Rights
Reserved

Eliezer Yudkowsky (2003)

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem
http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes

Luke Muelhauser (2011)

An Intuitive Explanation of Eliezer Yudkowskys
Intuitive Explanation of Bayes Theorem
http://commonsenseatheism.com/?p=13156

EvanT (2011)

http://onthewaytoithaca.wordpress.com/2011/06/19/an-intuitive-explanation-of-beyes-theorem/

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 1

Richard Feynman
,
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Feynman

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Eliezer Yudkowsky
:

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.

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email .
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Kindle.

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Neil Manson:

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1% 40
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15% . ,
. Casscells et. al. (1978), Eddy (1982),
Gigerenzer & Hoffrage (1995).

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.

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100 10.000 40
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950 9.900
. 10.000 ,
;

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7,8%. 7,8%
!
:

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( )
.

.
.

950 9,900
.
950 . 80
100 .
80 950 + 80 = 1.030
.

. .
; 1.030
;

80 100
, 80.

80/1.030
0,078 7,8%.

40
,

7,8%
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70%-80%
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8
10 , 10%
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10

(80 100) 9,6% (950

9.900) .

1% 7,6%.

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(
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20%,
80%!

1% . 80%
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 11

, 0,8% . 80%
99% ,
79,2%. 0,8% + 79,2% = 80%,
80% *.

1% !

.
.
* ;

, ;
. *:
(0,8%) (79,2%).
80%.

. 80%
, ;
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0,8%/80%, 1%.

1%
1% .

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80% . , 80%
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12

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 13

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( 80%
80%
)
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100 10.000 ,
500 10.000,
.

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40% 60%
. 30%

14

10% .
;

,
.
0,4 :

p() = 0,4

p(|) = 0,3

;
. .
: ,
0,3.

: ~

, :

p(|~) = 0,1

: ,
0,1.

p() = 0,4

p(|) = 0,3

p(|~) = 0,1

p(|) = ?

0,4.

,
0,3.

 15

,
0,1.

,
: ;

.
.

;
(

).

40% 30% ,
12% .

60% 10%
, 6% .

12% + 6% = 18%, 18% .

12% ,
12/18 67%.

Sally Clark.
,
. Roy Meadow
1 73
.
(1
8500).

Sally Clark .

. 4

16

. ,
2007.

Roy Meadow
Sally Clark
.
,
.

 17

.
Yudkowsky ,

, Java
Macintosh ( ) ,
Kindle, . [:
Luke screenshot Yudkowsky,
].

. .
40% 60%
. 30%
10% .
;

p(): 40%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 10%

p(|): 66,7%

18

, ,
.
40%, . (
50%)

p(|) "
".

.

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(
).
40% .
.
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; :

 19

p(): 10%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 10%


p(|): 25%

,
.

, . (
,
, ).

,
;
,



. (
,
.)

,
80%;

20

p(): 80%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 10%

p(|): 92,3%

,
,
.

,
.
.
40% ,
10% . ;

, ,
(' 30% 10%)
.
. , .
99,999%
; ,

100%. !

, .
99%,
.

 21

,
:

p(): 99%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 10%

p(|): 99,7%

40%, ;

p(): 40%

p(|): 70%
p(|~): 10%

p(|): 82,4%

22

,
.

; p(|
) " ,
".
, "
, "; ,
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.

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p(): 40%

p(|): 100%
p(|~): 80%

p(|): 45,57%

 23

,
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" " ""
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,
.

.

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;

p(): 40%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 70%

p(|): 22,2%

,
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(
).
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24

p(): 40%

p(|): 20%
p(|~): 20%

p(|): 40%

,
,
.
,
,
.

.

, ' :

p(): 40%

p(|): 80%
p(|~): 80%

p(|): 40%

 25

'

.

.

O Yudkowsky :

,
1% 80%
. ,
,
30%
20% ( 20%
10% ).
,

: " 18
7 , ;".
"25".
,
. ,

,


.
.
,

.

26

. ,

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.

(
)
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. ', ,
.

: "1% " ...

: "1 100
" "80 100 ".

100 80
100 .

, : " 400
1000 " " 50 400
". ,

.

O Yudkowsky :

"" ,
. ,
, ,

.

 27

. ,
,
.

50%. ,

.

p(): 40%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 10%

p(|): 66,7%

,
,
.

,
. (
, ).

,
.

28

, ' ,
.

p(): 40%

p(|): 30%
p(|~): 30%

p(|): 40%

'
, ,
' .

.
,
.
,
,
, '
, .

 29

. 1% , 80%
9,6%
.

p(): 1%

p(|): 80%
p(|~): 9,6%

p(|): 7,8%

: 10.000

: 100

: 9.900

& : 80

& : 20

& : 950

& : 8.950

1%
. ( 20%
9,6% )
,
.
,
7,6%.

;
,
' .
,

30

,
. ,
.

.

1% 7,8%.

 31

Yudkowsky
:

,
"@" : 1%

. , @
9,6% .
@ 0% (
) .

p(): 1%

p(|): 0%
p(|~): 9,6%

p(|): 0%

: 10.000

: 100

: 9.900

& : 0

& : 100
, :
& : 950 @,
& : 8.950 ;

32

@, : "!
". @ .
! ,
@,
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!

" ",
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, .

Yudkowsky :

""
"" "" "" "James Rutherford"

.
,
""
"".

( )
" "!

.
.

@ .
,
(
) .
( ) .
, ,

.

 33

1% 40
. 80%
,
9,6%
.
.
;

p(): 1%

p(|): 80%
p(|~): 9,6%

p(|): 7,8%

: 10.000

: 100

: 9.900

& : 80

& : 20

& : 950

& : 8.950

(
Yudkowsky):

34

1: 100
p() 0,01

2: 9.900
p(~) 0,99

80%
p(|) 80,0%

20%
p(~|) 20,0%

9,6%
p(|~) 9,6%

90,4%
p(~|~) 90,4%

A: 80
p( & ) 0,008

B: 20
p( & ~) 0,002

: 950
p(~ & ) 0,095

: 8.950
p(~ & ~) 0,895

p() 0,103 1.030

p(~) 0,897 8.970

,
p(|) 7,80%
: 7,8%

p(~|) 92,20%
: 92,2%

,
p(|~) 0,22%
: 0,22%

,
p(~|~) 99,78%
: 99,78%

 35

,
. p(&)
p(&), p(|)
p(|).

. ,
! p(&)
p(|).


.

, .
.

,
" " . " ";
:

,

.

; . p()
p(~) ,
, . ,
. p() 90%
p(~) 10%. p() 45%
p(~) 55%. :

p() + p(~) = 100%

p() + p(~) = 100%

p(|) p(~|).
( )
.
( ).

36

, . p(|) = 20%,
p(~|) 80%. ; :

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

.
: "


100%".

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

: "


100%". ,
.

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

p(|~) + p(~|~) = 100%

, p(|)
p(|~). p(|
) 80%, p(|~) 9,6%.
,
80%,
9,6%.
, p(|) p(|~)
.
.

. p(&),
p(|) p().
; , .
.

 37

'
. :

p(&) = p(|) p()

;

,
.

, [p(&), p(|),
and p()] .

p(~&) = p(~|) p()

,
.

: p(), p(&)
p(&~). ;
:

p(&) + p(&~) = p()

.

,
.
p(), p(&) p(&~).

: p(&), p(&~),
p(~&) p(~&~).
,
: p()
p(). : p(&~) = p()
p(~).

!
p() p(~)

38

. ! ,
, , '
.

.
500
( ), 150
( ), 50
( ) 900
( ).
.

,
100%. 100%.
, 500
, 150 , 50 900 . 1.600 .
31,25%. p(A) =
31,25%. p(B) = 9,375%, p() = 3,125%, and p() = 56,25%.
, 100%.

, 100%
:

p(&) + p(&~) +
+ p(~&) + p(~&~) = 100%

, (A =
, B = , =
= ),
. :

p(|) = A / (A + )

, ,

 39

( )
(+):

p() = A +

( ) (+):

p(|~) = B / (B + )

p(~) = +

,
( )
( )

p() = A + B

,
( )
( ):

p(~) = +

,
:

p(&)
p(|) =
p(&) +
p(~&)
p() = p(&) + p(~&)

p(&~)
p(|~) =
p(&~) +
p(~&~)
p(~) = p(&~) + p(~&~)

p() = p(&) + p(&~)

p(~) = p(~&) + p(~&~)

40

, , ( , ,
) 16
(. )
.

, ,

:
.

16
,
Yudkowsky:

.
, .
.
40% , 5/13
20%
.
;

; 40% :

p() = 40%

5/13 :

p(|) = 5/13

20% :

p(~&~) = 20%

p(|) = ?

 41

, ;
,
,
16 :

p() = 40% :
p(~) =
p() =
p(~) =
p(&) =
p(&~) =
p(~&) =
p(~&~) = 20% :
p(|) = 5/13 :
p(~|) =
p(|~) =
p(~|~) =
p(|) = ???
p(~|) =
p(|~) =
p(~|~) =

;
.
:

p() + p(~) = 100%

p() + p(~) = 100%

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

42

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

p(|~) + p(~|~) = 100%

p(&) = p(|) p()

p(~&) = p(~|) p()

p(&) + p(&~) = p()

p(&) + p(&~) + p(~&) +

+ p(~&~) = 100%
p(&)
p(|) =
p(&) + p(~&)

p() = p(&) + p(~&)

p(&~)
p(|~) =
p(&~) + p(~&~)

p(~) = p(&~) + p(~&~)

p() = p(&) + p(&~)

p(~) = p(~&) + p(~&~)

, (
) (
), ( ) ( ):

p() + p(~) = 100%

p() + p(~) = 100%

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

 43

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

p(|~) + p(~|~) = 100%

p(&) = p(|) p()

p(~&) = p(~|) p()

p(&) + p(&~) = p()

p(&) + p(&~) + p(~&) +

+ p(~&~) = 100%
p(&)
p(|) =
p(&) + p(~&)

p() = p(&) + p(~&)

p(&~)
p(|~) =
p(&~) + p(~&~)

p(~) = p(&~) + p(~&~)

p() = p(&) + p(&~)

p(~) = p(~&) + p(~&~)

.
;

p() + p(~) = 100%

p(|) + p(~|) = 100%

60% p(~) 8/13 p(~|).

. :

p(~) = p(&~) + p(~&~)

44

, :

60% = 20% + p(&~)

p(&~) = 60% 20% = 40%

p() = 40%
p(~) = 60% [ p() + p(~) = 100%]
p() =
p(~) =
p(&) =
p(&~) =
p(~&) =
p(~&~) = 20%
p(|) = 5/13
p(~|) = 8/13 [ p(|) + p(~|) = 100%]
p(|~) =
p(~|~) =
p(|) = ???
p(~|) =
p(|~) =
p(~|~) =

;
.

 45

p(&~)
p(|~) =
p(&~) + p(~&~)

, :

40%
p(|~) =
40% + 20%
:

p(|~) = 2/3

p(~|~)
:

p(|~) + p(~|~) = 100%

p(~|~) = 1/3

p() = 40%
p(~) = 60%
p() =
p(~) =
p(&) =
p(&~) = 40%
p(~&) =
p(~&~) = 20%
p(|) = 5/13
p(~|) = 8/13

46

p(|~) =
p(~|~) =
p(|) = ???
p(~|) =
p(&~)
p(|~) = 2/3 p(|~) =
p(&~) +
p(~&~)

p(~|~) = 1/3 [ p(|~) + p(~|~) = 100%]

!
:

p(~&) = p(~|) p()

40% = (8/13) p()

40% 2/5
p(|~) = = = 13/20 = 65%
8/13 8/13

p()
:

p(&) = p(|) p()

5 13
p(&) = = 1/4 = 25%
13 20

 47

p() = 40%
p(~) = 60%
p() = 65% [ p(~&) = p(~|) p()]
p(~) =
p(&) = 25% [ p(&) = p(|) p()]
p(&~) = 40%
p(~&) =
p(~&~) = 20%
p(|) = 5/13
p(~|) = 8/13
p(|~) =
p(~|~) =
p(|) = ???
p(~|) =

p(|~) = 2/3
p(~|~) = 1/3

p() = p(&) + p(~&)

40% = 25% + p(~&)

p(~&) = 40% 25% = 15%

p(|) :

48

p(&)
p(|) =
p(&~) + p(~&)

25%
p(|) =
25% + 15%

p(|) = 25% / 40%

p(|) = 62,5%

.
. :)

.
; :

.
, .
.
40% , 5/13
20%
.
;

p() 13/20.
: 65%. 65% ,
.

;
. , p(|
), 5/13

 49

. ,
p(~|) = 8/13.

,
, .
,
.
, ,
.

! !
65%,
62,5%.

,
' .

50

,
,
,
.
:

p() = p(|~) p(~) +

+ p(|) p()

: "
[
] [

]."

, ,
, ,
,
(' )
p(). Yudkowsky "
".

: .

.
.

.

, p(|) p(|
~). '
,
.

 51

, ,
:

.
, 40% ,
. 30%
, 10% .
90% 30%
. (
)
;
;

.


.

, 40% .
p() 40% .

,
...

p(|) / p(|~) = 30/10

p(|) / p(|~) = 90/30

... . .
p()

, p(|)
. ...
; ! p(|)
.

;
; , p(|~)
;

52

70%
90% . 10%
, 70% .

. :

, p(~|) / p(~|~) = 70/90

, p(~|) / p(~|~) = 10/70

#1
' #2,
.
p(|~) #1,
#1,
#2. p(~|) p(~|~)
#1 ' #2.

: "


#1 ' #2,
#1 ' #2 (
)."

p(|)
p(|~)
p() . p() ,
p(|)
p(|~) , p()
. Yudkowsky:

,
!
[
] .

-
-

 53

,
.
,
. ,
80% 9,6%

8% 0,96%
.
,
-
.

,

,
.

54

E.T. Jaynes ( )
.

,

. , 7
6,
. 8
100 6.

, 0 ,
20 60.

, 10.000 , 40
.

= 10 log10()

.
5 3, : 5 3.
5 5 5. .
. 53 " 5
3 ;" log 525 "
25;" 5 2 25,
log525 = 2. log 525 (" 5 25")
(5
) .

log, "
;" , log 464 " 4
64;" , , 3 4 3 64.

 55

, (
). :

= 10 log10()

" 10
10 ".

( , ).

.
1% .

. 25:3, 18:1, 7:2.

Jaynes
, :

10 log10(1/99) = -20 .

(
).
.

25:3 . 9
, :

10 log10(25/3) = +9 .

10 log10(18/1) = +13 .

10 log10(7/2) = +5 .

, .
! -20 ,
27 (9+13+5) ,

56

+7 .
, +7 ,
+7 83% !

+7
, -20. -20 99%
, 7
83% . 20 99%
.

, '
Yudkowsky
:

, '
Yudkowsky
:

1000 .
, 700 300
300 700 .
,

50%.
. , ,
, .
12 12 "" 8
4 .
;

 57

Ward Edwards Lawrence Phillips,

'
70% 80%. ; ,
! 97%.

,
. ,
7/3,
3/7. ,

.
p( )
' .

,
, ,
.
,
,
50%.

12 4 ' .
""
.
,
7/3!
,

.

7/3 4
,
:

(7/3)4 = 74:34 = 2401:81

30:1, 97%.

58

.
. :

.
, 30%
45%
.
, 5%
.

.
;

p(|)
:

p() = 30%

p(~) = 70%

p(|) = 45%

p(|~) = 5%

p(|) p() = p(&)

p(&) = 45% 30% = 13.5%

p(|~) p(~) = p(&~)

p(&~) = 5% 70% = 3.5%

 59

, :

p(&)
p(|) =
p(&) +
+ p(&~)
:

13,5%
p(|) =
13,5% + 3,5%
:

p(|) = 79,4%

' ,
:

p(|) x p()
p(|) =
p(|) x p() +
+ p(|~) x p(~)
:

p(E|H) x p(H)
p(H|E) =
p(E|H) x p(H) + p(E|~H) x p(~H)
.

p(E) = p(E|H ) p(H) + p(E|~H) p(~H)

p(E|H) x p(H)
p(H|E) =
p(E)

60

, ,

, . .

H
,

, .

, " "
.
()
(E).

Yudkowsky :

( ) .
' ,
.

.
Thomas Bayes. .

 61

;
;

Yudkowsky

100 . , "

". 100 ; "
". .

;
" "
; ( ,
.)

Yudkowsky :

"
, ,
" "
,
".

.
.

, " , ,
"
:

p( |
) = p( |

)

Yudkowsky ( "" ""

, ):

62

p(X|A) p(X|~A) ,
p(A|X) = p(A) ,
,
.
( )
.
. ""
"".

' , ( )
(
100 ).

: "
, ,
,
-,

.
".

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,
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,
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. .

: "
,

".

 63

,
.

Yudkowsky :

,

,


.
"" "
" ,
. ,

,
.

Karl Popper.
Popper
, ,
:
p(X|A) ~ 1 - -
~
.
, p(X|A) ~ 1 ,

p(X|B) ~ 1 '
.
,
p(X|A) ~ 1, p(X|~A) ~ 0,

. ,

,

.

64

Popper
. , p(X|
A)/p(X|~A)
.
.
1,
,
p(X|~A) -


,

.
.


.

, Y
,
. p(Y|) ,
.
, p(Y|)=0,0001% p(Y|~)=1%,
p(Y|A)/p(Y|~A)=1:10000. -40
! , p(Y|
A) , p(Y|~A)/p(Y|A)
, Y
~ .
.
,
,
- .

Popper.

, Popper


.

 65

, ~ .
~
, !
,

.

,
. , Popper
,
.
,
.
,
Popper.

,

. " ".


.
. , , .
p(H|E) = p(|). p(E|H) = p(|), p(H) = p()
p(E) = p().
50-50. p() = 0,5
p(|) = 8/13 (8
13)
p() = 0,5 x 8/13 ( )
+ 0,5 x 3/10 ( ) = 8/26 + 3/20 = 0,457
:
p(|)=p(|) x p() / p() = 8/13 x 0,5 / 0,457 = 0,307 / 0,457 = 67,1%
67,1%
;
.
. ,
5 8 .
7 3 .
( Beelzebub)


Tim Mcgrew's annotated bibliography of Bayesian reasoning
komponisto: Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way)
(and Short) Explanation of Bayes' Theorem
"BetterExplained": An Intuitive
Bayes' Theorem
Eliezer Yudkowsky: An Intuitive Explanation of
of Eliezer Yudkowskys Intuitive Explanation of Bayes Theorem
: An Intuitive Explanation
Luke Muehlhauser

66