Energy Technology

Perspectives 2010

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 The context

„ Need a global energy technology revolution to

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY meet climate change and energy security
PERSPECTIVES challenges.
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies „ Some early signs of progress, but much more
to 2050
needs to be done.

¾ Which technologies can play a role?

¾ What are the costs and benefits?

¾ What policies are needed?

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Global energy-related CO2 emissions in
the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios

60
ENERGY Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGY 50
PERSPECTIVES Other
2010 40 Buildings
Scenarios & Transport
Strategies 30
to 2050 Industry
20 Other transformation
Power generation
10

0
2007 2030 2050 2030 2050

Baseline BLUE Map

Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in

the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors
reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Key technologies for reducing global
CO2 emissions

ENERGY Gt CO2 60
Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19%
TECHNOLOGY 55
PERSPECTIVES 50
2010 Renewables 17%
45
Scenarios & 40 Nuclear 6%
Strategies
to 2050 35
30 Power generation efficiency 
and fuel switching 5%
25
End‐use fuel switching  15%
20
15 BLUE Map  emissions 14 Gt End‐use fuel and electricity 
10 efficiency 38%
5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case  ETP2010 analysis 
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to

reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Primary energy demand by fuel and by
scenario

ENERGY 8 000
TECHNOLOGY Mtoe 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
PERSPECTIVES 7 000
2010 6 000
Scenarios & 5 000
‐27%
Strategies 4 000
to 2050 ‐36%
3 000
2 000
1 000
0

By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than
today under the BLUE Map scenario.

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Decarbonising the power sector –
a new age of electrification?
50

PWh
Other
ENERGY 45
TECHNOLOGY Solar
PERSPECTIVES 40
Wind
2010
35 Biomass+CCS
Scenarios & Biomass and waste
Strategies 30
to 2050 Hydro
25
Nuclear
20 Natural gas+CCS

15 Natural gas
Oil
10
Coal+CCS
5 Coal
0
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map  BLUE High  BLUE High Ren 
2050 Nuclear 2050 2050

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with

CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity
© OECD/IEA - 2010 sector.
 Average annual electricity capacity
additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario

ENERGY Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map

TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES Coal‐fired with CCS 35 plants (500 MW) 
2010 Gas‐fired with CCS 20 plants (500 MW)
Nuclear Historical high 30 plants (1 000 MW)
Scenarios &
Strategies Hydro 2/3 of Three Gorges Dam 
to 2050 Biomass plants 200 plants  (50 MW)
Wind‐onshore 12 000 turbines  (4 MW)
Wind‐offshore 3 600 turbines  (4 MW)
Geothermal 45 units (100 MW)
Solar PV 325 million m 2 solar panels
Solar CSP 55 CSP plants (250 MW)

0 10 20 30 40 50

GW/ yr

Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon

technologies must be massively increased from
today’s levels.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Environmental co-impacts of electricity
generation technologies

ENERGY Life Cycle Impacts
(Pre‐ and Post‐Generation) Power Generation Impacts CO2
TECHNOLOGY Energy  Emissions
PERSPECTIVES Technologies Air Water Land Air Water Land t/MWh
2010
Coal ‐ USC Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below 0.777
Scenarios & Va ri a bl e / Va ri a bl e /
Strategies Coal ‐ Biomass
Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve
Uncerta i n Uncerta i n
Mi ni ma l Mi ni ma l
0.622
to 2050 Va ri a bl e /
Nega ti ve Nega ti ve Nega ti ve Nega ti ve Mi ni ma l
Coal ‐ CCS Uncerta i n 0.142
Va ri a bl e /
Mi ni ma l Mi ni ma l Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Mi ni ma l
Coal ‐ IGCC Uncerta i n 0.708
Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve
NGCC 0.403
Va ri a bl e / Va ri a bl e /
Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Nega ti ve Pos i ti ve
Nuclear Uncerta i n Uncerta i n 0.005
Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Nega ti ve Mi ni ma l
Solar ‐ CSP 0.017
Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Mi ni ma l
Solar ‐ PV 0.009
Va ri a bl e /
Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve Pos i ti ve
Wind Uncerta i n 0.002

Most renewable technologies have positive

environmental co-impacts.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050

Greater integration of 
2.50
renewables
ENERGY

Gt  CO2 / yr
2.25
TECHNOLOGY Facilitation of electric vehicles 
and plug‐in electric vehicles
PERSPECTIVES 2.00
2010 0.34‐ 0.69
Energy savings from peak load 
1.75
management
Scenarios &
1.50
Strategies
Continuous commissioning of 
to 2050
1.25 service sector loads
0.31‐ 0.62
1.00 0.00‐ 0.01 Accelerated deployment of 
energy efficiency programs
0.75 0.01‐ 0.05
0.07‐ 0.27
Reduced line losses (voltage 
0.50 control)
0.03‐ 0.25
0.25 Direct feedback on  energy usage
0.09‐ 0.27
0.00
Direct  reductions Enabled  reductions

Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can

facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as
renewables and electric vehicles.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Evolution of energy use in transport by
fuel

ENERGY Mtoe 5 000

Hydrogen
TECHNOLOGY 4 500
PERSPECTIVES 4 000
Biofuels
2010 Electricity
3 500
Scenarios & 3 000 CNG and LPG
Strategies
to 2050 2 500 GTL and CTL
2 000 Heavy fuel oil
1 500 Jet fuel
1 000
Diesel
500
Gasoline

Baseline Baseline BLUE Map

2007 2030 2050

Biofuels and electricity will replace gasoline and diesel

demand in the BLUE Map scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Direct energy and process CO2
emissions in industry by sector

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY 12
Gt CO2

PERSPECTIVES Energy efficiency
2010 10
Fuel switching
CO2 emissions 
Scenarios & Recycling / energy recovery savings
Strategies 8
to 2050 CCS
6 Other
Pulp and paper
4 Cement
CO2 emissions
Aluminium
2
Chemicals
Iron and steel
0
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

Energy efficiency and CCS are the two most important

abatement options in industry.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Contributions to CO2 emissions
reductions in the buildings sector

Space and water 
ENERGY
heating and 
TECHNOLOGY cooling
PERSPECTIVES 20%
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050 Electricity 
Building shell
decarbonisation
11%
48%

Cooking, lighting 
and appliances
21%

Decarbonisation of the electricity sector contributes

around half of the emissions reduction in the
buildings sector.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Additional investment needs in the
BLUE Map scenario
800
ENERGY 700
TECHNOLOGY 600
USD billion  / yr

PERSPECTIVES Buildings
500
2010
400 Transport
Scenarios & 300
Strategies Industry
to 2050 200
100 Power sector
0
2010‐2030

2030‐2050

2010‐2030

2030‐2050

2010‐2030

2030‐2050

2010‐2030

2030‐2050
OECD Other major  Emerging  Least developed 
economies economies countries

Over the period to 2050, most of the additional

investment in low-carbon technologies will be needed
in non-OECD countries.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 OECD and non-OECD primary energy
demand in the Baseline scenario

ENERGY
Mtoe 16 000
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 14 000 Non‐OECD
2010 12 000 OECD
Scenarios & 10 000
Strategies
to 2050 8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000

2007 Baseline  Baseline  Baseline 

2015 2030 2050

Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries is

projected to increase much faster than in OECD
countries in the Baseline scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Additional investment and fuel
savings, 2010-2050

ENERGY Commercial

Fuel savings
Total

Investment
TECHNOLOGY
Residential
PERSPECTIVES

Undiscounted
2010

10% discount
3%  discount
Transport
60
USD trillion (2010‐2050)

Scenarios & Industry

Strategies 40
to 2050 20 Power distribution
0 Power transmission
‐20
Power generation
‐40
‐60 Biomass and waste

‐80 Natural gas
‐100
Oil
‐120
Coal
‐140

Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the

BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional
© OECD/IEA - 2010
investment required.
 Technology policies
„ Carbon pricing is important, but should be
ENERGY
complemented by other policies
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
„ Policies must be tailored to the technology’s
2010 stage of development and its penetration of
Scenarios & local markets
Strategies
to 2050 „ Public RD&D spending must at least double
„ Governments need to implement best practices
in energy RD&D
„ A number of enabling actions are also needed:
„ Private sector leadership
„ Expanded human capacity
„ Greater government outreach and planning on
infrastructure needs
„ Expanded, more effective international
collaboration
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Policies for supporting low-carbon
technologies

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Government support policies need to be appropriately

tailored to the stage(s) of technological development.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Key messages

„ Some early signs of an energy technology revolution,

ENERGY but change is still fragile and fragmented
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES „ Rapid, large-scale deployment of low carbon
2010 technologies is needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050
Scenarios &
Strategies
„ This will also reduce fossil fuel use and improve energy
to 2050 security
„ Fuel savings may outweigh additional investments

„ Improved energy efficiency and decarbonising

electricity are key; new technologies needed after 2030
„ Urgent action required – emissions must peak by
around 2020
„ Non-OECD countries also need to cut emissions

„ Governments must take lead to set the policy

framework, but industry also has a role

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Roadmaps

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 CSP Roadmap

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

ƒConsumption
ƒProduction

2050: A detailed regional assessment – with some

© OECD/IEA - 2010
HVDC lines
 Wind Roadmap

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Wind has the potential to provide 12% of global electricity production in 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Electric Vehicle Roadmap
Light-duty vehicle sales by technology type to 2050
ENERGY   180
TECHNOLOGY H2 hybrid fuel cell
PERSPECTIVES 160
2010 Electricity
Passenger LDV Sales (million)

140
Scenarios & CNG/LPG
Strategies 120
to 2050 Plug‐in hybrid diesel
100
Diesel hybrid
80
Conventional diesel
60
Plug‐in hybrid gasoline
40

20 Hybrid (gasoline)

0 Conventional gasoline
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Unprecedented rates of change in market penetration of

© OECD/IEA - 2010
advanced technologies
 Nuclear Energy Roadmap

1400 40% Africa & Middle 

East
ENERGY Economies in 
35%
TECHNOLOGY 1200

Share of global electricity production
Transition
PERSPECTIVES Other Developing 
30%
2010 1000 Asia
Installed capacity GW

OECD Pacific
Scenarios & 25%
Strategies 800 OECD Europe
to 2050 20%
Latin America
600
15% US & Canada
400
10% India

200 China
5%
BLUE Map
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BLUE High Nuclear

Nuclear is a proven technology and can play an

important role in a low-carbon strategy
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Platform slide

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Thank You
www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
ANNEX

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 GDP projections

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

(% per year based on purchasing power parity)‫‏‬

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Oil, gas and coal price assumptions

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

For the Baseline Scenario (in USD per unit)‫‏‬

For the BLUE Scenario (in USD per unit)‫‏‬

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Carbon Price in the BLUE Map
scenario
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010

USD / t CO2 2020 2030 2050

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

OECD 50 110 175

Non-OECD 0 65 175

© OECD/IEA - 2010