2010-12 Investigation of Possible BCA Adaptation Measures For Climate Change Final

AN INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE BUILDING CODE
OF AUSTRALIA (BCA) ADAPTATION MEASURES
FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
December 2010
Report by the Australian Building Codes Board
This work is the copyright of the Australian Government and the States and Territories of
Australia. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be
reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Australian Building
Codes Board. Requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be directed
in the first instance to-
General Manager
Australian Building Codes Board
GPO Box 9839
Canberra ACT 2601
This report has been prepared by the Australian Building Codes Board and was part funded
by the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. The Australian Building Codes
Board (ABN 74 599 608 295) cannot accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on
the contents of this report by any third party.

ABN: 74 599 608 295
Tel: 1300 134 631 Fax: +61 2 6213 7287
www.abcb.gov.au
ii
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 1
1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 9
1.1
Background to the Project ............................................................................................................ 9
1.2
Scope ............................................................................................................................................. 11
1.3
Methodology................................................................................................................................. 11
2. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ......................................................................................................... 13
2.1 Past climate change...................................................................................................................... 13
2.2 Future climate change ................................................................................................................. 13
2.3 Climate change scenarios ............................................................................................................ 13
2.4 Climate change impacts and responses...................................................................................... 15
3. AUSTRALIAN BUILDING CODES BOARD .......................................................................................... 18
3.1 Australian Building Codes Board .............................................................................................. 18
3.2 BCA Objectives............................................................................................................................ 21
4. BUILDING TRENDS................................................................................................................................... 25
4.1 Building projections..................................................................................................................... 25
4.2 Australia's Building Stock........................................................................................................... 25
4.3 Can adaptation measures for buildings be left to market forces? ........................................... 27
5. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND IMPACT ON BUILDINGS/BCA........................................ 29
5.1 WIND INTENSITY (INCLUDING CYCLONES) ................................................................... 29
5.2 RAINFALL .................................................................................................................................. 34
5.3 FLOOD......................................................................................................................................... 38
5.4 DROUGHT.................................................................................................................................. 42
5.5 SEA LEVEL RISE/STORM SURGE ........................................................................................ 46
5.6 SALINITY.................................................................................................................................... 51
5.7 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE ......................................................................................... 55
5.8 EXTREME TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS......................................................................... 59
5.9 HUMIDITY.................................................................................................................................. 63
5.10 SNOW........................................................................................................................................... 66
5.11 HAIL............................................................................................................................................. 68
5.12 BUSHFIRE................................................................................................................................... 70
5.13 GROUND MOVEMENT ............................................................................................................ 75
5.14 DURABILITY.............................................................................................................................. 79
6. RISK MATRIX ............................................................................................................................................ 84
7. POSSIBLE ADAPTATION MEASURES.................................................................................................. 90
8. FURTHER RESEARCH NEEDS ............................................................................................................... 97
9. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 100
10. APPENDIX 1 - SUMMARY OF BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY VARIOUS CLIMATE
SCENARIOS............................................................................................................................................... 105
iii
LISTS OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1: Community resilience and loss under a low emissions scenario....................4
Figure 2: Confidence in effects of climate change ......................................................17
Figure 3: Community resilience and loss under a low emissions scenario..................14
Figure 4: Climatic zones in the BCA by location. .......................................................56
Figure 5: Time series of the annual average number of hot days. ...............................60
Figure 6: Sub floor ventilation requirements ...............................................................63
Figure 7: Distribution of losses of houses due to bushfire...........................................74
Figure 8: Relationship between FFDI and percentage of total losses..........................74
Figure 9: Termite hazard map based on agro-ecological consideration ......................81
Figure 10: Termite hazard map based on average temperature ...................................82
Table 1: Specification of design wind speeds according to the BCA..........................30
Table 2: Climate zones in the BCA by classification ..................................................56
Table 3: Likely change in extreme temperature events, relative to 1990 levels..........60
Table 4: Percentage changes in humidity in 2030 and 2070, relative to 1990 levels. .64
Table 5: Design snow depth in the BCA ....................................................................66
Table 6: Relation between FFDI and daily fire danger rating ....................................71
Table 7: Percentage changes in the number of days with very high and extreme fire
weather - 2020 and 2050, relative to 1990...................................................................71
Table 8: Number of new buildings constructed in BPA - annual average...................72
Table 9: Site classification in the BCA........................................................................76
Table 10: Probability of termite hazard relative to temperature ..................................81
Table 11: Assessment of regional impacts of climate change .....................................84
Table 12: Assessment of the likelihood of climate change impacts ............................84
Table 13: Evaluating the consequences of climate change impacts ............................84
Table 14: Risk rating of climate change impacts.........................................................85
Table 15: Risk matrix; evaluating the likelihood and consequences of climate change
impacts on people in buildings ....................................................................................89
Table 16 Summary of possible adaptation measures in buildings ...............................96
iv
Introduction
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate change
There is overwhelming evidence climate change is real and that its impacts are
already being experienced in Australia.1 Since 1950, Australia's average temperatures
have increased 0.9C. The frequency of hot days and nights has increased while cold
days and nights have decreased. Rainfall has generally declined, and sea levels rose
by about 10cm from 1920-2000.1
What is less certain is the extent to which the climate is likely to change in 20, 50 or
more years. The best estimate of annual warming over Australia by 2030 compared to
1990 is about 1C, and by 2070, 1.8C for the low emissions case, and 3.4C (range of
2.2C to 5C) for the high emissions case. Substantial increases in hot days over 35C
are also likely. Rainfall is expected to continue to decline by about 2%-5% by 2030
over most of Australia and by about 10% by 2070, however, significant variations are
likely with the far north less affected. Higher temperatures, reduced relative humidity
and less rainfall increase the risk of drought and bushfires.1
Globally, the sea level is projected to rise by 18-59cm by 2100, with an additional 10
20cm resulting from melting ice sheets. More intense cyclones and extreme low
pressure systems, together with sea-level rise are projected to increase the potential
for devastating storm surges.1
There is increasing community awareness of climate change and of the need to

holistically consider its impacts on all aspects affecting our future including the
buildings we live, work and socialise in.
Resilience of buildings designed and constructed to the BCA
Buildings designed and constructed to the national Building Code of Australia (BCA)
have a good record of successfully withstanding recent severe climate related hazards.
The question is will BCA compliant buildings be sufficiently resilient when subjected
to future climate related hazards taking climate change into account?
The BCA is the national technical code which applies to all new buildings, to
alterations and additions to existing buildings, and to buildings undergoing a change
of use. It does not apply to existing buildings that are not being changed or altered.
The BCA also covers structures usually associated with buildings such as retaining
walls, swimming pools and fences. However, the code does not cover roads, bridges,
wharves, dams and the like. The BCA objectives relate to health, safety (including
structural safety and safety from fire), amenity and sustainability.
The BCA was first published in 1988 and all States and Territories (with the
exception of Tasmania) had adopted it by 1992 into their building legislation. The
performance based BCA was published in 1996 and was nationally adopted by
January 1998.
1
CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia - Technical Report 2007,
CSIRO, 2007
1
Introduction
The BCA is developed by the Australian Building Codes Board in accordance with
the COAG Principles of Best Practice Regulation, which require a demonstrated need,
evidence of benefits exceeding costs, and effective action proportional to the issue
being addressed, before changes can be made. The Board is established by an
Agreement between the Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments in
cooperation with local government and the building industry.
Buildings are currently designed and constructed in accordance with the BCA to
withstand climate related hazards such as cyclones and extreme winds, intense rain,
bushfire, and to some extent flood. These hazards impose loads and risks to buildings
determined mainly by historical records from which design events with annual
probabilities of exceedance are specified.
Building standards have undergone constant review, particularly after major hazard
events and via research, to ensure adequate levels of safety and health are maintained
for the community. Where the building standards proved to be inadequate, as
identified in the wake of Cyclones Althea in 1971 and Tracy in 1974, they were
subsequently upgraded. These improved standards for high wind design were later
demonstrated to be satisfactory as evidenced by the small number of building failures
resulting from Cyclones Vance in 1999 and Larry in 2006.
The BCA currently requires buildings to be designed to resist actions relating to wind
and snow with specified annual probabilities of exceedance depending on the
importance level of the building. For example, the annual probability of exceedance
for wind (both cyclonic and non-cyclonic) for housing and most other buildings is
1:500. This equates to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. For large public
buildings the annual probability of exceedance for wind is 1:1000, and for hospitals,
police and fire stations, 1:2000 (i.e. 2.5% probability of exceedance in 50 years).
There is a small risk that wind events and other hazards will occur during the life of
buildings that are larger than what the buildings were designed for. In this case, the
buildings are likely to suffer significant damage or in extreme cases, collapse. The
role of insurance is crucial in these cases to provide a safety net.
Effects of future climate change on buildings
Because buildings are usually expected to last at least 50 years, it is important they
can cope with future climate hazard events. This is particularly important when
considering half of all buildings expected to exist in 2060 have yet to be constructed.
This report suggests that by and large, buildings designed and constructed in
accordance with the current BCA are likely to be reasonably adequate for climate
related hazards anticipated in 50 years time associated with the low emissions case. If
the climate changes in accordance with high emissions scenarios, the current BCA is
likely to be deficient. Nevertheless, whatever the emission scenario, climate change
impacts, both at a regional level in Australia and globally, require constant monitoring
and review to ensure the BCA's established level of safety is proportional to the likely
hazard intensity and resultant risk of devastation.
2
Introduction
Changes to the BCA to cater for future climate change face a challenge in terms of
complying with the COAG Principles of Best Practice Regulation. This is because
the actual quantum of changes to hazards and risks, as a result of climate change, are
still largely uncertain.
We can be reasonably confident new buildings constructed to the BCA can withstand
current climate hazard design events, and will cope reasonably well with future events
that are slightly more severe under a low emissions case. The largest concern is in
relation to existing buildings constructed prior to today's contemporary building
standards. These buildings are likely to be vulnerable to current climate hazard
events, so would be even more vulnerable when faced with more severe future events.
If climate changes associated with a high emissions scenario eventuate, current BCA
compliant buildings are also likely to be at risk. Under the high emissions scenario,
existing buildings would be even more exposed.
The main impacts of climate change with implications for Australian buildings are:
increased energy consumption due to higher temperatures
adverse health effects on building occupants caused by over-heating due to higher
temperatures
increased risk of damage from-
o more intense tropical cyclones, storms and stronger winds
o increased flooding, inundation, and erosion due to more intense rainfall
events, sea-level rise and storm surge
o increased bushfires
o increased hailstorms especially in Sydney
o increased moisture variation of clay soils resulting in greater ground
movement impacting on foundations and services.
In spite of uncertainties highlighted above in regard to future climate change impacts,

from the information available it appears the current BCA will generally provide a
reasonable level of safety for new buildings under low emissions climate change
scenarios in the short to medium term. However, the latest climate change science
indicates a high emissions scenario is likely in the medium to long term (2050-2100).
Should this prove to be the case, the BCA will need to adapt in response to the high
emissions scenario. Whatever the case, additional research and more reliable data
will be required on specific climate impacts, such as cyclonic events and intense
rainfall, to ensure that standards can be adequately reviewed to take account of longer
term trends. This further work is required before BCA changes can be justified in
accordance with the COAG Principles.
Modelling techniques can be used to assess the potential range of climate outcomes
based on current understanding. This information can be presented in the form of a
probability density function (PDF), where the median has the highest probability of
occurring, but where there is also a chance of outcomes that are either much more
benign, or much more damaging. PDFs have been developed for individual elements
such as rainfall and temperature. However, it would be of much greater assistance to
building regulators if PDFs were available for the entire range of climate related
hazards including cyclones, floods, bushfires, hail and intense rainfall in different
regions. This information would be of significant assistance to building regulators in
ensuring buildings would be sufficiently resilient to the impacts of climate change.
3
Introduction
One of the most significant climate related hazard risks is storm surge with resultant
flooding. However, it would be impractical for the BCA to require buildings in low
lying coastal locations to resist loads resulting from say a 5m storm surge and to
prevent water entry into the building in a cost effective manner. The role of land use
planning is critical in restricting development in high storm surge prone areas.
Buildings constructed prior to the introduction of the BCA are most at risk under
climate change scenarios. These buildings have been designed and constructed to
inferior building standards, and are likely to have been weakened due to lack of
maintenance, degradation and possible damage in previous events. These buildings
may also have been constructed in areas subject to high risk of storm surge, flood,
wind and bushfire, prior to land use planning controls which may have restricted their
location.
The difference in resilience of new buildings and existing pre BCA buildings when
subjected to current and future climate related hazard events, as a consequence of
climate change under a low emissions scenario is depicted in Figure 1.
Increased
hazard level
Small increase in due to
community loss for new climate
buildings due to climate
change under low change
emissions scenario under low
emissions
Difference in New building scenario
community resilience
resilience
between new
and existing
buildings
Hazard intensity
Current BCA
design level
Existing
building
Current resilience
community
resilience
Large increase in
community loss for
0% 100% existing buildings
due to previous
Percentage community loss lesser standards,
Figure 1 Community resilience and loss under a low emissions scenario degradation and
climate change
Introduction
Possible BCA adaptation measures for climate change
Even under a low emissions scenario, there are still opportunities to reduce the
vulnerability of buildings when subjected to climate related hazards. Possible
adaptation options to improve the resilience of buildings in the face of climate change
include-
improved thermal performance of the building shell by passive solar design means
to lessen the impact of higher temperatures without increasing the demand for air
conditioning, and consider on-site energy generation to reduce reliance on mains
power
improved chain of fixings from roof to foundations, better bracing resistance and
weathertightness to counter more intense cyclones and storm events
increasing the capacity of valley and box gutters and improve detailing of roof and
wall flashings to cope with increased rainfall intensity
methods of collecting rainwater, reusing greywater, and reducing water use via
more efficient plumbing fixtures to make buildings less vulnerable to reduced
overall rainfall and increasing pressure on infrastructure
avoid location in flood prone areas or use water resistant materials and locate
vulnerable services above flood levels
avoid location in extreme bushfire prone areas or design buildings in these areas to
be more bushfire resistant
consider the use of hail resistant materials in high risk areas.
Under a high emissions scenario, which from the latest climate change science
appears more likely in the medium to long term (2050-2100), the need for buildings to
be more resilient to the impacts of climate change becomes more critical because
climate related events would be significantly more extreme. For example, heat stress
may become a critical factor impacting on public health and wellbeing which could
necessitate significant improvements in building passive design and ventilation. Also,
extreme sea level rise or bushfire risk could result in significant relocation or
improvements in either protecting the buildings themselves or in creating protection
mechanisms or buffer zones. Therefore, subject to the availability of sufficient data to
justification changes, future editions of the BCA, or the proposed new National
Construction Code (the proposed BCA replacement) would need to consider these
climate change impacts.
Benefits of adaptation measures
Even if the world makes a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the lag
in the climate system means that we are faced with decades of climate change due to
the emissions already put into the atmosphere. Adaptation is therefore a necessary
complement to measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is the
principal way to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change.2 Adaptation is
more acceptable to the public than mitigation. This is because the community has a
self interest to prepare for disasters. 3 Adaptation measures also offer tangible and
2
COAG, 'National Adaptation Framework' 2006
3
Larson, 'Record heat waves in Europe take 35,000 lives', 2003
5
Introduction
relatively immediate benefits. However, the ability of buildings to adapt is also

influenced by the ability of infrastructure (eg stormwater, energy, water) to cope with
increased loads.
Possible tools for climate change adaptation
There are a number of different tools governments can use to address climate change
adaptation. These different tools are also relevant to the ABCB when considering the
inclusion of building adaptation measures for climate change in the BCA. These tools
may be implemented individually or in association with other tools. Different tools
and adaptation measures may require different time, cost and effort to implement.
Generally, low risks would require measures that are easier and less costly to
implement. The most appropriate response is determined after consideration of the
desired outcome, the importance, likelihood and consequences, the time, cost and
effort of implementing the action, and the likely benefits. Possible tools are
represented below with those that are least costly, take less time and effort on top.
Engage with peak industry and environmental organisations, all levels of

government, and the community.
Identify and promote available subsidies, grants and rebates.
Undertake partnerships with key stakeholders to maximise resources.
Inform and educate stakeholders, including via the internet and media.
Undertake and access research.
Produce non-regulatory guidelines and handbooks.
Regulate through the BCA.
Retrofit existing buildings.
Relocate buildings and services.
If it is determined through a regulatory assessment process that the appropriate tool

for climate change adaptation is to regulate through the BCA, the ABCB has the
necessary capacity to generate the BCA change for matters within the scope of the
BCA. The capacity of industry to comply with the changed BCA depends on the
process of consultation, awareness and education which is part of the BCA change
process.
The role of land use planning
Land use planning and related development control laws play a very important role in
mitigating risks to buildings in vulnerable areas at a State/Territory and local
government level as a result of climate related hazards. The role of land use planning
becomes more critical under climate change scenarios. For example, land use
planning tools can be used to condition, restrict or prohibit development in areas
exposed to bushfire, flood (including flash flood), sea level rise and storm surge.
The challenge for land use planners is to adequately plan for future climate change
impacts. Good information and research in relation to climate change is required to
inform decision makers on appropriate land use planning for the medium to long term.
In addition to problems in accessing relevant and necessary information, there are
difficulties where existing land zonings need to be reassessed under climate change
6
Introduction
scenarios and current expectations of land owners and developers may be challenged
and changed by the regulatory authority.
Land use planning and the BCA often work closely in tandem. For example, in
relation to bushfire, planning schemes can identify areas that are bushfire prone and
the level of bushfire hazard. The BCA can then specify a construction solution for a
building constructed in that area to cater for the particular bushfire risk.
National Adaptation Framework
The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) endorsed a National Adaptation

Framework4 in April 2007 as part of its Plan of Collaborative Action on Climate
Change. A key focus of the Framework is to support decision-makers understand and
incorporate climate change into policy and operational decisions at all scales and
across all vulnerable sectors. The Framework identifies that adaptation measures
include planning to reduce vulnerability and/or increase resilience, and using codes
and standards that take into account the impact of climate change on frequency and
duration of rainfall, storm water capacity and changes in wind speed.
A potential area of action identified in the Framework is the revision and development
of codes, standards and guides to increase resilience to climate change, and for the
Australian Building Codes Board to consider climate change as part of their periodic
reviews. This report progresses the implementation of this COAG action.
Role of BCA in ensuring community resilience to climate change
The role of the BCA is critical in ensuring the community is resilient to climate
change impacts. However, the BCA is but one factor of many which need to interact
successfully to ensure the community is resilient to the effects of severe climate
related hazards.
The factors which ultimately determine community resilience include-
Appropriate land use planning controls to restrict or condition development in

areas subject to high risk, such as areas subject to flooding, extreme bushfire and
storm surge.
Appropriate mitigation measures such as flood mitigation works and bushfire risk
reduction measures (eg controlled burning).
Proportional building standards in the BCA to ensure buildings are appropriately
designed and constructed for the likely hazards.
Community awareness, understanding, and preparedness in the face of climate
hazards.
Effective emergency management response when climate related hazard events
occur, including recovery planning.
Insurance to provide a safety net.
National Construction Code
4
National Climate Change Adaptation Framework
7
Introduction
In December 2009, COAG endorsed the development of a National Construction

Code (NCC) to reduce and simplify regulation in the construction area, and eliminate
areas of overlap. In the first instance, the NCC would encompass the BCA and the
Plumbing Code of Australia. Other standards relating to gas, telecommunications and
electricity would be considered for inclusion in the NCC in future years. The NCC
would allow broad consideration of possible adaptation measures for climate change
across the range of standards relating to buildings and utilities.
Further investigation and research needs
Whilst acknowledging that changes to the BCA may be required to respond to impacts
under a high emissions scenario, without further investigation and research it is
unlikely there would be sufficient justification to enable BCA changes that would be
consistent with the COAG Principles and the IGA.
Potential further investigation and research needs include-

Review the ability of buildings to cope with increased bushfire risk.
Review BCA energy efficiency provisions and other measures to reduce risk of
heat stress related health impacts on occupants.
Review the ability of buildings and structures (particularly roof cladding) and
associated test methods, to cope with higher winds.
Investigate the impact of climate change on the design annual probabilities of
exceedance for climate related hazards. For example, to maintain the current
BCA requirement for housing to resist wind with an annual probability of
exceedance of 1:500, do the current standards need to be more stringent.
Continue to monitor climate change information and research to identify whether
the low or high emissions case is likely, and identify any new risks so they can be
addressed.
Develop a RIS covering the proposals relating to the impact of climate change
design wind speeds in cyclonic regions.
Obtain better data more suited to our use ie climate scientists to develop PDFs for
all climate related hazards (not just provide estimates of temp, rainfall, but also
cover hazards such as cyclones and other wind events, bushfire, flood, storm
surge, hail etc) for specific regions.
Develop a Standard and/or Guideline on flooding, including construction options
to minimise flood damage.
8
Introduction
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Project
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of

increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global average sea level.5
Australias climate is changing. Some impacts are already observable and there is
broad scientific consensus that further change will occur. Even if the world makes a
significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the lag in the climate system means
that we are faced with decades of climate change due to the emissions already put into
the atmosphere. Adaptation is therefore a necessary complement to measures to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is the principal way to deal with the
unavoidable impacts of climate change. It is a mechanism to manage risks, adjust
economic activity to reduce vulnerability and to improve business certainty. Australia
is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Projected changes in rainfall and sea
level rise and more extreme weather may also bring risks to the security of our water
resources, agricultural systems and settlements, and to the health of our people; risks
which could be severe in parts of Australia.2
Adaptation is more acceptable to the public than mitigation. This is because the
community has a self interest to prepare for disasters.3 Adaptation measures also offer
tangible and relatively immediate benefits. However, the ability of buildings to adapt
is also influenced by the ability of infrastructure (eg stormwater, energy, water) to
cope with increased loads.
Australia is particularly vulnerable to climate change because it is already a generally

dry continent which experiences high natural climate variability. There is a general
view that some form of adaptation may be able to reduce climate change impacts on
the built environment.6
Buildings in Australia are currently designed and constructed in accordance with the
national Building Code of Australia (BCA) to withstand climate related hazards such
as cyclones and extreme winds, intense rain, bushfire, and to some extent flood.
These hazards impose loads and risks to buildings determined mainly by historical
records from which design events with specified annual probabilities of exceedance
are specified.
The BCA is developed in accordance with the COAG Principles of Best Practice
Regulation, which require a demonstrated need, evidence of benefits exceeding costs,
and effective action proportional to the issue being addressed, before changes can be
made. Changes to building codes to cater for future climate change face a challenge
in terms of complying with the COAG Principles. This is because the actual quantum
of changes to hazards and risks, as a result of climate change, are still largely
uncertain. Nevertheless, because buildings are usually expected to last at least 50
5
IPCC, 4th Assessment report, 2007
6
Camilleri et al 2001, Hertin et al 2003, Larsson 2003, Liso et al 2003, Steemers 2003, Lowe 2004 and
Rousseau 2004
9
Introduction
years, it is important that these buildings can cope with future climate hazard events.
This is particularly important when considering that half of all buildings existing in
2060 have yet to be constructed.
The purpose of this project is to identify and review the potential impacts of climate
change on the current Building Code of Australia (BCA) which will contribute to
strategic policy development by the ABCB. The review identifies the BCA
provisions affected by the different climate change scenarios, such as higher
temperatures and greater bushfire risk, highlights relevant areas of the BCA requiring
further investigation, and recommends priority areas for consideration.
Well functioning and reliable infrastructure, including buildings people live, work,
and socialise in, is important to economic growth and social development. Buildings
must be safe, not adversely impact on occupant health, and be sustainable. The BCA
(and previous building codes) have been continuously updated over the years to
respond to these community expectation by specifying levels of health, safety and
energy efficiency in buildings proportional to the need determined by the community
and ultimately by governments.
Building code changes have often been made in response to a disaster or particular
event such as a severe earthquake (particularly in areas previous considered a low
earthquake risk), a devastating tropical cyclone, or a major fire incident causing loss
of life. In this way, the building code has been continuously adapted to make
buildings less vulnerable to similar future devastating events and to ensure adequate
levels of safety and health are maintained for the community. Where the building
standards proved to be inadequate, as identified in the wake of Cyclones Althea in
1971 and Tracy in 1974, they were subsequently upgraded. These improved
standards for high wind design were later demonstrated to be satisfactory as
evidenced by the small number of building failures resulting from Cyclones Vance in
1999 and Larry in 2006. The impact buildings have on the environment and on
greenhouse gas emissions have also lead governments to introduce recent changes to
the BCA to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and services within buildings.
In regard to the consequences of climate change, consideration needs to be given to

further adapting the BCA to cater for the future climate change impacts, to ensure the
code continues to provide a level of safety acceptable to the community and
governments, and to a level where the benefits are commensurate with the costs. This
consideration of future events is important because of the long life of buildings.
Climatic conditions impacting on buildings in 50 or more years time are likely to be
different to current conditions and buildings must be able to safely withstand those
future conditions.
When planning for climate change, the focus will need to be forward-looking and
based on scenario-building and/or computer modelling. However, there will need to
be sufficient confidence in the future predictions to satisfy the COAG Principles of
Best Practice Regulation.
The BCA applies to the design and construction of new buildings, and depending on
the individual State and Territory regulations, also to alterations and additions to
existing buildings, and to buildings undergoing a change of use.
10
Introduction
1.2 Scope
The scope of this study covers the potential impacts of climate change (including
higher temperatures, higher wind speeds, more intense but overall less rainfall, and
greater risk of floods and bushfires) on buildings designed and constructed to the
requirements of the current Building Code of Australia (BCA).
The requirements of the BCA considered in this study include the major BCA
components of site, structure, footings, roofing, framing, walls, health etc.
The project recognises that mitigation efforts alone to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions will not prevent current climate change trends and therefore there is still
likely to be a need to adapt buildings for future climate change impacts. However, as
adaptation and mitigation measures are often complementary and not in conflict it is
appropriate for this exercise to consider possible adaptation measures in the BCA on
their own without consideration of possible mitigation impacts.
Consideration of changes to the BCA to deal with climate change must currently be in
accordance with the present IGA and COAG Principles of Best Practice Regulation.
However, in relation to climate change some proponents are calling for regulation that
has not been subjected to rigorous impact assessment. Instead, these proponents are
suggesting a precautionary principle approach should be used to mitigate risk as
opposed to the current proportional approach required by the COAG Principles and
the IGA.
1.3 Methodology
The study identifies in Section 5, each of the climate change scenarios (ie wind
intensity (including cyclones), rain intensity, flood, drought, sea level rise/storm
surge, salinity, extreme temperature variations, average temperature rise, humidity,
snow, hail, bushfire, subsidence and durability) together with the associated current
BCA provisions in Volumes One and Two which address that climate scenario, the
effect of the climate change scenario on the relevant provisions, the likelihood and
consequences of the climate change impact on buildings, the possible adaptation
measures to mitigate the increased risk to the building as a result of climate change,
and further research needs.
Using the information from Section 5, Section 6 identifies in more detail the risk
associated with each building issue or element (eg site stability, wall, roof etc) when
subjected to the various climate impacts. The risk is a function of the likelihood of the
event occurring together with the consequences of that event. This information can
then be used to identify research priorities or areas where improvements to the BCA
should be further investigated.
11
Introduction
The study relies upon available reports and information to identify likely climate
change scenarios. The main reports include the BRANZ 2007, Report to the
Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources -
An Assessment of the Need to Adapt Buildings for the Unavoidable Consequences of
Climate Change; and the CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007 Technical
Report - Climate Change in Australia.
12
Effects of climate change
2. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
2.1 Past climate change
There is overwhelming evidence climate change is real and that its impacts are
already being experienced in Australia. Since 1950, Australia's average temperatures
have increased 0.9C. The frequency of hot days and nights has increased while cold
days and nights have decreased.1 Globally, eleven of the last twelve years (1995
2006) rank among the twelve warmest years since 1850. From 1906 to 2005 the
global surface temperature has risen 0.74oC.5 Global average sea level has risen
1.8mm/yr since 1961 and 3.1mm/yr since 1993. Overall, sea levels rose by about
10cm from 1920-2000.1 Glaciers and ice caps are melting. Rainfall has generally
declined, particularly in southern and eastern Australia.
2.2 Future climate change
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further
warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st
century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.5
Precipitation is likely to decrease in southern Australia in winter and spring.

Precipitation is very likely to decrease in south-western Australia in winter. Changes
in rainfall in northern and central Australia are uncertain. Extremes of daily
precipitation are very likely to increase, except possibly in areas of significant
decrease in mean rainfall (southern Australia in winter and spring). Increased risk of
drought in southern areas of Australia is likely. Increased frequency of extreme high
daily temperatures and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes is very likely.5
Climate change predictions also depend on the response of the Australian monsoon,
tropical cyclones, the strength and latitude of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the El
Nio-Southern Oscillation.
2.3 Climate change scenarios
The following climate change scenarios provide a brief summary of likely impacts.
For further information refer to the IPCC5 and CSIRO1 publications.
Temperature
By 2030, annual warming relative to 1990 is estimated at 0.4C to 2C (average about
1.0C) over most of Australia, with slightly less warming in some coastal areas and
Tasmania, and slightly more warming in the northwest. By 2070, annual warming is
expected to increase by 1C to 6C over most of Australia, averaging 1.8C for the
low emissions case and around 3.4C for the high emissions case. Substantial
increases in the frequency of days over 35C are likely with fewer frosts.1
Rain
The range of precipitation change in 2030 allowing for model-to-model differences is
large. Annually averaged, the range is around -10% to +5% in northern areas and
-10% to 0% in southern areas. Decreases in rainfall are thus more consistently
indicated for southern areas compared to northern areas. Winter and spring changes
range from decreases of around 10% to 0% in southern areas of the south-east of the
13
continent, decreases of 15% to little change in the south-west, and decreases of around
15% to possible increases of 5% in eastern areas. In summer and autumn, the range is
typically -15% to +10%. Decadal scale natural variability in precipitation is
comparable in magnitude to these projected changes and may therefore mask, or
significantly enhance, the greenhouse-forced changes.
In 2070, the range of annual precipitation change is -30% to +20% in central, eastern
and northern areas, with a best estimate of little change in the far north grading to
around -10% in the south. The range of change in southern areas is from -30% to
+5%, with a best estimate of around -10%. Seasonal changes may be larger, with the
projected decreases in the south-west of up to 40%.
Models show an increase in daily precipitation intensity but also in the number of dry
days. Extreme daily precipitation tends to increase in many areas but not in the south
in winter and spring when there is a strong decrease in mean precipitation.
Hail
Projections of changes in hail occurrences for 2030 and 2070 indicate an increase in
hail-days per year along the south eastern coast line (1 to 2 hail-days for 2030, 4 to 6
hail-days for 2070) and a decrease in hail-days per year for the south coast of
Australia (-1 to -2 hail-days).1
Snow
Snow cover, average season lengths and peak snow depths are projected to decrease
in Australian alpine regions, and there is a tendency for the time of maximum snow
depth to occur earlier in the season.1
Wind
There is a tendency for increased average wind speed in most coastal areas in 2030
(range of -2.5% to +7.5% with best estimates of +2% to +5%) except for the band
around latitude 30S in winter and 40S in summer where there are decreases (-7.5%
to +2.0%, with best estimates of -2% to -5%). Later in the century, changes of wind
strength can be larger, depending on the emission scenario. Under the high emissions
scenario in 2070, best estimate increases of more than 15% apply in some regions,
whereas under the low emissions scenario increases are less than 10% everywhere.1
In winter, changes to extreme wind speed are likely to be similar to the changes to
seasonal mean wind speed. However, there is little relationship between summer
mean and extreme wind speed changes. Extreme winds in summer are likely to be
governed more by small scale systems (including tropical cyclones). On the other
hand, winter extreme wind events are more likely to be governed by larger scale
systems (e.g. trade winds, mid-latitude cyclones).1
Humidity
Small decreases in relative humidity are projected over most of Australia. The range
of change in annual humidity by 2030 is around -2% to +0.5% with a best estimate of
around a 1% decline. The projected changes are larger for 2050 and 2070, particularly
under the higher emission scenarios.1
14
2.4 Climate change impacts and responses
Flooding
There is a greater chance of flooding events in areas where increased rainfall intensity
and storms events are likely (ie summer and autumn for northern and eastern
Australia, winter and spring for far south-east and Tasmania). The magnitude of the
localised flooding event will depend on the drainage system capacity including roof
drainage, stormwater systems, sewer connections, and physical characteristics of each
catchment.
Wind impact
There is a likely increase in the proportion of the tropical cyclones in the more intense
categories, but a possible decrease in the total number of cyclones. Conditions will
become less suitable for the occurrence of tornadoes in southern Australia in the cool
season (May to October). In south-eastern Australia, models analysed indicate that El
Nio events will tend to become drier and La Nia events will tend to become wetter,
even if Pacific Ocean variability linked to ENSO does not increase. A decrease in the
occurrence of winter low pressure systems over south-west Western Australia is likely
during the 21st century.1
Driving rain
Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, increases in extreme rainfall are simulated in
mid-latitudes where average rainfall increases, or decreases slightly. (IPCC 2001). For
example, the intensity of the 1-in-20-year daily rainfall event may increase by up to
10% in parts of South Australia by the year 2030 (McInnes et al 2003), by 5 to 50% in
some NSW regions by the year 2050,7 5 to 70% by the year 2050 in Victoria
(Whetton et al 2002), and up to 30% by the year 2040 in south-east Queensland and
northern NSW (Abbs and McInnes, in preparation). By the year 2050, the 1-in-20
year daily-rainfall intensity in northern Queensland may increase by 25%.8 (Walsh et
al 2001). Decreases in extreme rainfall are likely in the Sydney region.7
Subsidence/Ground Movement
Less average rainfall and higher levels of evaporation (as a result of higher
temperature, lower humidity, winds and solar radiation) will result in drier soils. Clay
soils shrink when they dry out and swell when they rehydrate which can cause
movement of foundations and damage to buildings, such as cracking of walls. Severe
subsidence can require structural rectification such as underpinning of footings.
Bushfires
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of hot days, especially in
summer, with decreases in rainfall and humidity. These changes would increase
bushfire intensity and frequency, with the number of days of very high and extreme
fire danger increasing across the country.
7
Hennessy, K.C. et al, Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia. Consultancy
report, CSIRO Marine and atmosphere research, 2005.
8
Walsh, K., Hennessy, K., Jones, R., McInnes, K.L., Page, C.M., Pittock, A.B., Suppiah, R. and
Whetton, P. Climate change in Queensland under enhanced greenhouse conditions third annual
report, 1999-2000. CSIRO consultancy report for theQueensland Government, Aspendale. 2001,
108pp.
15
Simulations from two models show the number of days with very high and extreme
fire danger ratings increases 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050. For example,
Canberra has an annual average of 26-29 very high or extreme fire danger days by
2020 and 28-38 days by 2050, compared with a present average of 23 days. It is likely
that the fire season will lengthen, shifting periods suitable for prescribed burning
toward winter.1
Drought
Due to projected changes in rainfall and increases in evaporation, soil moisture is
likely to decline over much of southern Australia. If a drought-month is defined as
having very low soil moisture (within the driest 10% for the period 1974-2003),
simulations from two models show up to 20% more drought-months over most of
Australia by 2030, with up to 40% more drought-months by 2070 in eastern Australia,
and up to 80% more in south-western Australia by 2070.1
Average and extreme temperature rise

By 2030, annual average temperatures are likely to be 0.4 to 2.0C higher over most
of Australia, with slightly less warming in some coastal areas and Tasmania, and there
is potential for greater warming in the north-west. By 2070, annual average
temperatures are likely to increase by 1.0 to 6.0C over most of Australia with spatial
variation similar to those for 2030. The range of warming is greatest in spring and
least in winter. In the north-west, the greatest potential warming occurs in summer.
By the year 2030, the average number of days below zero generally decreases by 20
80%, while the number of days above 35C increases by 10-100% (larger percentage
increases are possible in tropical and sub-tropical places such as Darwin, Cairns, Gold
Coast and Brisbane).9
Severe heat waves are a major concern in other parts of the world, and are likely to
become an increasing concern in Australia. An extreme heat wave in Europe in
August 2003 claimed an estimated 35,000 lives. In France alone, 14,802 people died
from the searing temperatures. Another extreme heat wave in Chicago in 1995 killed
739 people in a matter of days. Heat waves claim more lives globally each year than
floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined.3
About 176 elderly people die from heat-related causes in Sydney each year. This
could grow to more than 1000 deaths by the end of the century.10 A report11 by
Victoria's chief health officer estimated there were 374 heat related deaths in Victoria
in the week leading up to the disastrous Black Saturday Bushfires on 7 February 2009.
Salinity
9
BRANZ Limited, An Assessment of the Need to Adapt Buildings for the unavoidable Consequences of
Climate Change, Department of Environment and Water Resources Australian Greenhouse Office,
Canberra, 2007.
10
Preston et al, Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability in the Sydney Coastal Councils Group ,
Sydney Coastal Councils Group and the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, 2008.
11 Victorian Government Department of Human Services Melbourne, Victoria, January 2009
Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts, 2009
16
An increase in daily rainfall intensity and in the number of dry days is likely to cause
greater groundwater level fluctuations with resultant increased salinity risk.
Sea level rise/storm surge

Global sea level rise is projected by the IPCC to be 18-59 cm by 2100, with a possible
additional contribution from ice sheets of 10 to 20 cm. However, further ice sheet
contributions, which cannot be quantified at this time, may substantially increase the
upper limit of sea level rise.
Storm surges occurring in conditions of higher mean sea levels will enable inundation
and damaging waves to penetrate further inland, increasing flooding, erosion and the
subsequent impacts on built infrastructure and natural ecosystems. Changes to wind
speed will also affect storm surge height. Storm surge studies for portions of the
Victorian and Queensland coasts demonstrate the potential for significant increases in
inundation due to higher mean sea level and more intense weather systems.1
Potential climate change impacts have different probabilities of occurrence as

represented in the Figure 2.
Figure 2: Confidence in effects of climate change12
12
LGAQ, Adapting to climate change: A Queensland local government guide, 2007, p.6
17
3. AUSTRALIAN BUILDING CODES BOARD
3.1 Australian Building Codes Board
The Australian Building Codes Board (ABCB) was created in 1994 through an
Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) signed by the Commonwealth and all State and
Territory Governments, to develop a nationally consistent Building Code of Australia
(BCA) based on proportional regulation, and to lead regulatory reform. The ABCB
was formed following a desire by governments for a national common set of technical
building standards, which were performance-based, scientifically robust, and
developed with strong industry and professional input.
The Boards mission is to address issues relating to health, safety, amenity and
sustainability by providing for efficiency in the design, construction and performance
of buildings through the BCA and the development of effective regulatory systems.
Board membership comprises representation from the Commonwealth, each State and
Territory, industry and the Australian Local Government Association.
The ABCBs annual expenditure is around $7 million. To date, revenue to fund these
activities is received from three main sources: the Australian Government ($1m per
annum); State and Territory governments ($1m total per annum); and cost recovery
activities primarily resulting from the sale of the BCA.
Key regulatory reform outcomes by the ABCB over the last ten years include:
national performance-based building code, the BCA, operating since 1997
contestable certification services for building approvals in most States and
Territories
introduction of a rigorous economic evaluation approach to regulatory change
national product certification scheme
national accreditation framework for building certifiers
Australia's first national energy code for houses and commercial buildings in the
BCA
These initiatives continue to provide significant benefits for the community and
industry through cost savings in design and construction, more efficient services and
sustainable buildings, and on-going life-safety, health and amenity for people in
buildings.
Building Code of Australia (BCA)

The BCA is the national technical code which applies to all new buildings, to
alterations and additions to existing buildings, and to buildings undergoing a change
of use. It does not apply to existing buildings that are not being changed or altered.
The BCA also covers structures usually associated with buildings such as retaining
walls, swimming pools and fences. However, the code does not cover roads, bridges,
wharves, dams and the like. The BCA objectives relate to health, safety (including
structural safety and safety from fire), amenity and sustainability.
The BCA was first published in 1988 and all States and Territories (with the
exception of Tasmania) had adopted it by 1992 into their building legislation. The
18
performance based BCA was published in 1996 and was nationally adopted by
January 1998.
The BCA is model regulation, which becomes law only when it is adopted in State
and Territory building legislation. The BCA is a performance-based code which while
offering prescriptive solutions ("deemed-to-satisfy"), also permits other solutions that
satisfy the performance requirements. Basing the BCA on performance, therefore,
gives industry greater opportunity to develop innovative, cost effective solutions.
COAG Principles for Codes and Standards

Standard setting bodies like the ABCB must comply with the Council of Australian
Governments (COAG) Best Practice Regulation Guide. The Guide ensures that
standard setting bodies which develop proposals that will be translated into laws and
regulations must follow consistent principles in developing all proposals which have a
regulatory impact.13
COAG has agreed that all governments will ensure that regulatory processes in their
jurisdiction are consistent with the following principles:
1. establishing a case for action before addressing a problem;
2. a range of feasible policy options must be considered, including self-regulatory,
co-regulatory and non-regulatory approaches, and their benefits and costs
assessed;
3. adopting the option that generates the greatest net benefit for the community;
4. in accordance with the Competition Principles Agreement, legislation should not
restrict competition unless it can be demonstrated that:-
a. the benefits of the restrictions to the community as a whole outweigh the
costs, and
b. the objectives of the regulation can only be achieved by restricting
competition;
5. providing effective guidance to relevant regulators and regulated parties in order
to ensure that the policy intent and expected compliance requirements of the
regulation are clear;
6. ensuring that regulation remains relevant and effective over time;
7. consulting effectively with affected key stakeholders at all stages of the regulatory
cycle; and
8. government action should be effective and proportional to the issue being
addressed.
The ABCB has established a standard BCA amendment process in accordance with
these COAG principles and as required by the Commonwealth Office of Best Practice
Regulation, various Productivity Committee reviews and State and Territory building
authorities. The process includes key stakeholder consultation, development of a
Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS), public consultation, comment analysis and
review of proposals, publication, education/training, and adoption. This process
usually takes a minimum of two years from start to finish.
13
COAG, Best practice regulation: A guide for ministerial councils and national standard setting
bodies, 2007.
19
Any proposal to include adaptation measures for climate change in the BCA would
first need to be shown to comply with these COAG Principles, in addition to
requirements of the IGA which establishes the ABCB.
If it is determined through a regulatory assessment process that the appropriate tool

for climate change adaptation is to regulate through the BCA, the ABCB has the
necessary capacity to generate the BCA change for matters within the scope of the
BCA. The capacity of industry to comply with the changed BCA depends on the
process of consultation, awareness and education which is part of the BCA change
process.
In relation to climate change some proponents are calling for regulation that has not
been subjected to rigorous impact assessment. Instead, a precautionary principle
approach is suggested to mitigate risk.
There are many definitions for the precautionary principle but one of the most
influential comes from Principle 15 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and
Development (1992):
"Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing measures".
The alternative is a proportional approach to risk regulation and is the approach

currently used by the ABCB. This approach is a complex, careful, and thoughtful
examination of the dangers and costs of each option. This approach is enshrined in
the COAG Best Practice Regulation principles and the IGA and therefore, the ABCB
is obliged to follow this proportional approach rather than the precautionary principle
approach.
National Adaptation Framework

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) requested the development of a
National Adaptation Framework in February 2006 as part of its Plan of Collaborative
Action on Climate Change. COAG endorsed the Framework in April 2007. A key
focus of the Framework is to support decision-makers understand and incorporate
climate change into policy and operational decisions at all scales and across all
vulnerable sectors. The Framework identifies that adaptation measures include
planning to reduce vulnerability and/or increase resilience, and using codes and
standards that take into account the impact of climate change on frequency and
duration of rainfall, storm water capacity and changes in wind speed. This report
progresses the implementation of this COAG action.
Potential areas of action identified in the Framework include
Research to address key knowledge gaps about human settlements and climate
change impacts, including information needed to effectively implement actions set
out below in relation to planning, codes and standards and major infrastructure.
All jurisdictions will evaluate and share relevant information about the extent to
which planning and development systems promote decisions that increase
resilience to the impacts of climate change and discourage decisions that increase
vulnerability, and consider changes where appropriate. The Local Government
20
and Planning Ministers Council would coordinate a national report based on these
assessments
Analysis and revision of planning systems including revision and development of
codes, standards and guides to increase resilience to climate change including:
o the Australian Building Codes Board consider climate change as part of
their periodic reviews;
o reviewing standards used for building, plumbing and electrical standards
and specification for the development and subdivision of land. This would
include a particular focus on standards related to buildings and utilities and
would be ongoing as better information becomes available;
o review information used to determine vulnerability of settlements land to
climate- related hazards (floods, bushfires, cyclones and coastal
inundation) and develop new or revised risk management guidance to take
into account any projected changes as a result of climate change.
Consistent with the National Adaptation Framework, COAG endorsed in December

2009 the development of a National Construction Code (NCC) to reduce and simplify
regulation in the construction area, and eliminate areas of overlap. In the first
instance, COAG decided the NCC would encompass the BCA and the Plumbing Code
of Australia. Other standards relating to gas, telecommunications and electricity
would be considered for inclusion in the NCC in future years. The NCC would allow
broad consideration of possible adaptation measures for climate change across the
range of standards relating to buildings and utilities.
3.2 BCA Objectives
The goal of the BCA is to enable the achievement of nationally consistent, minimum
necessary standards of relevant health, safety (including structural safety and safety
from fire), amenity and sustainability objectives efficiently.
The primary BCA focus is life safety and protection of neighbouring property from
fire. This primary focus on life safety often also achieves as a consequence, an
element of property protection. For example, protecting people in buildings from the
effects of a cyclone, extreme wind, or bushfire relies on the building continuing to
provide a shelter for the duration of the hazard and thus remaining intact. In this case,
in the process of saving lives, the buildings are protected as well. However, property
protection per se is not the primary objective.
In the case of hazards which can have a widespread impact on communities, such as
cyclones, bushfires and floods, the BCA life safety provisions provide a high degree
of community resilience in terms of avoiding widespread losses and damage to
buildings and infrastructure. This has consequential societal benefits in terms of
enabling the community to recover quickly after a major hazard event with minimal
disruption to business and facilities.
However, there are instances when meeting the BCA objective of life safety does not
ensure property protection. For example, during Cyclone Vance, which crossed the
West Australia coast near the town of Exmouth (pop 3000) in 1999, with a wind
speed of 267km/hr (the highest ever recorded on the Australian mainland) no deaths
resulted. While new buildings performed well in terms of remaining structurally
21
intact and providing safe shelter for occupants, many buildings were damaged by
water ingress, resulting in significant repair and insurance bills.14 In addition, water
ingress can also lead to significant loss of amenity, as when buildings become
uninhabitable for a period of time.
There was a recent cyclone which resulted in life loss and property damage. Cyclone
George which struck the Port Hedland region in March 2007 resulted in three
fatalities, numerous injuries and property damage in mining camps consisting of
temporary accommodation buildings. The majority of damaged buildings were later
identified as having weaknesses due to poor maintenance and it is notable that the
majority of housing stock withstood the wind gusts, which were estimated to have
reached around 200 km/h. The structural adequacy of the temporary accommodation
buildings was also questioned. Nevertheless, less than two percent of permanent
buildings in the greater Port Hedland area sustained structural damage. 15
Again in relation to the issue of life safety and property protection, a BCA compliant
building, when subjected to a severe earthquake, would need to remain standing,
without causing injury to occupants. However, that building could be so severely
damaged that it may need to be demolished after the event.
These examples highlight that the BCA alone does not provide all the answers. All
parties, eg Commonwealth, State and local governments, the private sector,
emergency management agencies, and insurance all play a role to ensure there are no
gaps and the community is reasonably protected. The BCA requires buildings to be
designed to withstand hazard events (wind, snow etc) with specified annual
probabilities of exceedance. However, if more severe events occur, which exceed the
buildings' design capacity, the building is likely to suffer damage and occupant safety
would be at risk. The insurance industry provides a safety net in relation to property
damage to cope with these events. The Insurance Council of Australia 2008 budget
submission to the Federal Government states "general insurance provides
governments with financial security and stability, safe in the understanding that in the
event of a major catastrophic event the cost of assistance and recovery will not be met
by government alone with the resultant straining of government capacities and
resources".16 There is however a gap as a result of the 28.1% of Australian
households with no contents insurance and 4.1% with no house insurance. Also,
many insurance policies do not currently provide cover for flooding and other water
inundation risks. The insurance industry is currently reviewing this gap. 17
Figure 3 shows the relationship between hazard intensity and community loss for new
and existing buildings. New buildings should survive the design hazard loads
prescribed in the BCA. Under expected climate change scenarios, new buildings
should cope reasonably well with little increase in damage. Existing buildings on the
other hand are likely to experience damage when subjected to current design level
14
Boughton, Geoff; Reardon, Greg; Ginger, John and Henderson, David. The Effects of Tropical
Cyclone Vance on Exmouth. Australian Journal of Emergency Management; Volume 14, Issue 2;
Winter 1999; 27-30
15
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/pthed/george/index.shtml
16
Insurance Council of Australia, Federal Government Budget Submission, 2008.
17
Insurance Council of Australia, Financial Services for Managing Risk, Submission to the Garnaut
Review the contribution and role of the general insurance industry, 2008.
22
loads. This level of damage is likely to increase under climate change scenarios.
Also, for existing buildings in particular, a small increase in the hazard intensity could
lead to a significant increase in damage/loss.
The Figure also indicates the community resilience for new buildings is higher than
for existing buildings.
Small increase in
community loss for new Increased
buildings due to climate hazard
change under low
emissions scenario
level due
to climate
change
Difference in New building
community resilience
resilience
between new
and existing
buildings
Hazard intensity
Current BCA
design level
Existing
building
Current resilience
community
resilience
Large increase in
community loss for
0% 100% existing buildings
due to previous
Percentage community loss lesser standards,
Figure 3 Community resilience and loss under a low emissions scenario degradation and
climate change
Role of BCA in ensuring community resilience to climate change
The role of the BCA is critical in ensuring the community is resilient to climate
change impacts. However, the BCA is but one factor of many which need to interact
successfully to ensure the community is resilient to the effects of severe climate
related hazards.
The factors which ultimately determine community resilience include-
Appropriate land use planning controls to restrict or condition development in

areas subject to high risk, such as areas subject to flooding, extreme bushfire and
storm surge.
23
Appropriate mitigation measures such as flood mitigation works and bushfire risk
reduction measures (eg controlled burning).
Proportional building standards in the BCA to ensure buildings are appropriately
designed and constructed for the likely hazards.
Community awareness, understanding, and preparedness in the face of climate
hazards.
Effective emergency management response when climate related hazard events
occur, including recovery planning.
Insurance to provide a safety net.
The role of land use planning
Land use planning and related development control laws play a very important role in
mitigating risks to buildings in vulnerable areas at a State/Territory and local
government level as a result of climate related hazards. The role of land use planning
becomes more critical under climate change scenarios. For example, land use
planning tools can be used to condition, restrict or prohibit development in areas
exposed to bushfire, flood (including flash flood), sea level rise and storm surge.
The challenge for land use planners is to adequately plan for future climate change
impacts. Good information and research in relation to climate change is required to
inform decision makers on appropriate land use planning for the medium to long term.
In addition to problems in accessing relevant and necessary information, there are
difficulties where existing land zonings need to be reassessed under climate change
scenarios and current expectations of land owners and developers may be challenged
and changed by the regulatory authority.
Land use planning and the BCA often work closely in tandem. For example, in
relation to bushfire, planning schemes can identify areas that are bushfire prone and
the level of bushfire hazard. The BCA can then specify a construction solution for a
building constructed in that area to cater for the particular bushfire risk.
Climate change adaptation versus energy efficiency
The report finds that by and large, the bulk of the BCA's energy efficiency provisions
will contribute to positive adaptation outcomes. For example, improved insulation of
the building envelope and improved ventilation will reduce the risk of occupant heat
stress in heat wave events. However, there may be circumstances where the two
could conflict. For example, efforts to reduce waste heat in winter in cool climates
through improved standards of insulation could become less important as the
temperature rises. In addition, the increased use of solar water heaters and solar
panels may become more at risk of breakage in more severe storm or hail events.
Therefore, BCA energy efficiency provisions now and in the future, in addition to the
other BCA objectives, need to take account of future climate change implications.
24
Building Trends
4. BUILDING TRENDS
4.1 Building projections
7.4 per cent of addresses in Australia are located within three kilometres of the coast
and have an elevation less than six metres above mean sea level. About 50 per cent of
national addresses are located within seven kilometres of the shoreline.18 These
numbers can be expected to increase as a result of relocating sea-changers and the
ageing of the Australian population in the first half of the 21st century. The
Australian population is expected to increase from the present 21 million to around 30
million by 2060.19
These buildings located at or near the coast are potentially exposed to climate related
natural hazards such as tropical cyclones or extreme wind events, storm surge, intense
rainfall, floods and acid sulphate soils. Other climate related hazards such as
bushfires, extreme temperatures and salinity apply more broadly but also impact on
coastal communities.
There are approximately 8 million dwellings in Australia. From 1991-2004, there

were consistently around 145,000 new dwellings constructed each year.20 Therefore,
assuming this construction rate remains reasonably constant, and taking into account
future dwelling demolitions, at least half of the total number of dwellings in Australia
by 2060 have yet to be constructed. Therefore, any improvements to the BCA now
will positively affect the performance of half of the total number of dwellings by
2060, not counting alterations to dwellings which should also be BCA compliant.
4.2 Australia's Building Stock
New buildings
All States and Territories with the exception of Tasmania had adopted the BCA by
1992. Tasmania followed in 1994. This means that buildings constructed since then
should comply with the BCA edition at the time, and meet the BCA objectives for
health, safety and amenity. The performance based BCA was published in 1996 and
was nationally adopted by January 1998. Sustainability (in the form of energy
efficiency for housing) was added as a BCA objective in 2003. Energy efficiency
provisions for residential buildings (in addition to housing) were included in BCA
2005 and for commercial, industrial and public buildings in 2006.
A study conducted by BRANZ Ltd 9 draws three broad conclusions about the
resilience of Australias new building stock to the likely impacts of climate change as
follows:
1. New buildings are reasonably resilient to expected changes in average climate
conditions but may not be as resilient to changes in extreme events such as storms
and flooding.
18
Chen & McAneney, High-resolution estimates of Australian coastal population: with validations of
global data on population, shoreline and elevation, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L16601, 2006.
19
ABS, 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101, Australian Bureau of Statistics,
Canberra. 2008.
20
ABS, 4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, 2005: Housing stock: supply of housing, Australian Bureau
of Statistics, Canberra, 2005.
25
Building Trends
2. Some recent changes to buildings codes and practices, while not designed to
address the impacts of climate change, have increased the resilience of new
buildings. For example, higher energy efficiency standards mean that buildings
are better able to cope with more frequent hot spells.
3. There is considerable scope to improve the resilience of new buildings although
further research may be required before specific measures can be formulated.
This finding that new buildings are reasonably resilient to the likely impacts of
climate change is important taking into account the projected doubling of the number
of dwellings in Australia by 2060. This means that new dwellings are well on track to
meet the needs of the future in terms of health, safety, amenity and sustainability.
The finding that new buildings may not be as resilient to changes in extreme events
such as storms and flooding requires further investigation. In regard to wind events,
the report identifies peak winds are likely to increase by up to 5% and possibly by
10%. This would result in increases of wind forces between 10% and 21% (wind
force is proportional to the square of wind speed). Assuming a minimal current level
of redundancy in buildings, this could result in a corresponding 10-21% increase in
damage to buildings in such an event. The current ABCB research project
investigating the impact of climate change on the intensity of cyclones is important in
this regard, and would also have implications for non-cyclone areas.
The BCA does not currently include specific comprehensive standards for flooding.
However, there has been a call for the ABCB to develop appropriate standards within
the BCA to minimise the risk of damage to building and building materials from
flooding. The DOTARS report21 was given in-principle approval by COAG in
December 2003. Therefore, the current ABCB work considering improved flood
provisions remains relevant, and it needs to consider an increase in flood risk due to
climate change.
Resilience of existing buildings

The majority (57%) of Australian homes are reported to be 20 or more years old. This
is significant when considering that in the Northern Territory, building standards for
wind were significantly improved since Cyclone Tracy in 1974, in Queensland from
the early 1980s, and later in other States. Therefore, the majority of Australian homes
were constructed in accordance with standards generally inferior to current
contemporary wind standards. Older homes are also less likely to meet contemporary
bushfire, flood, and energy efficiency standards.
The resilience of Australias older building stock to the likely impacts of climate
change is difficult to assess, due to varying levels of degradation (corrosion, rot,
insect attack), and a lack of information about the stock of buildings. For example,
modelling of housing vulnerability under extreme winds has been developed for the
Cairns, Townsville and Mackay regions. The model provides community-wide
estimation of wind damage caused by specific cyclone scenarios and the results
indicate that Cairns has a higher resilience against building damage than either of the
21
DOTARS Natural Disasters in Australia: Reforming Mitigation, Relief and Recovery Arrangements,
Department of Transport and Regional Services, Canberra, Australia, 2004
26
Building Trends
other cities. This resilience is linked to the spatial distribution of housing age, style
and the local topography. 22
Good maintenance and, where appropriate, upgrading is the key to resilience for older
buildings.
The resilience of housing to wind was highlighted during Cyclone Larry in 2006. A
report on cyclone damage by the James Cook University Cyclone Structural Testing
Station found that in general, newer housing performed well. Conversely, the majority
of major structural damage was associated with construction more than 25 years old.
Introduction in Queensland of revised standards for domestic construction in the early
1980's resulted in newer housing being able to withstand higher wind loads. Also,
older structures are more likely to have deteriorated components (corrosion, rot, insect
attack) leading to a reduction in strength along the critical load path.23
Deciding whether to upgrade older buildings to increase resilience to the impacts of

climate change (increased temperatures and extreme natural events) will depend on a
combination of considerations including the expected life of the building, significance
of the building, cost and the risk. There may be merit in developing guidance on
modifying older buildings and developing practical solutions. Buildings that include
sustainable measures (e.g. strong passive solar design principles, efficient water usage
systems such as grey water systems, and sufficient structural adequacy) will be more
resilient to the impacts of climate change.
4.3 Can adaptation measures for buildings be left to market forces?
The current BCA prescribes the minimum level of performance new buildings (and
new work in buildings undergoing alteration and addition) must achieve to resist loads
caused by climate related hazards. Under climate change scenarios, these loads are
likely to increase. An option would be to leave the current BCA performance levels
as is and rely on the market to cope with any increase in requirements due to climate
change, or alternatively, the government could intervene by increasing the BCA
stringency.
There is likely to be a market for buildings that are appropriately designed and
constructed to withstand the risks associated with climate change. Therefore, it could
be argued that market forces can deal with adaptation. However, this possible market
response is not likely to be uniform across the market. There is the issue of split
incentives in cases where the developer sells the building on completion and is
concerned only with compliance with minimum requirements. In this case, the
developer is unlikely to include adaptation measures unless there is a positive market
advantage. If the developer is to be a long term occupier of the building and therefore
reap the benefits in terms of increased safety or cost savings, it is more likely
22
Queensland government, Queensland Climate Change and Community Vulnerability to Tropical
Cyclones: Ocean Hazards Assessment, The State of Queensland, Department of Natural Resources and
mines, 2004.
23
Cyclone Testing Station; School of Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Investigation
of structural performance of housing, commercial and light industrial buildings in the Innisfail,
Babinda and Kurrimine areas, following Cyclone Larry - Preliminary summary of CTS survey findings,
Australian Building Codes Board, 2006.
27
Building Trends
adaptation measures would be included. However, it is unlikely even long term

developer/occupiers would take into account low likelihood events even if they may
have extreme consequences.
Another issue is that adaptation measures may not be widely understood and can vary
regionally. Therefore, the market would need to be sufficiently informed to make
appropriate decisions, even where there is an intention to include adaptation measures
in buildings.
In order to provide uniform and appropriate adaptation measures for all buildings,
government intervention would be necessary. Government intervention is particularly
important where the adaptation measures are intended to address crucial health and
safety aspects in buildings which have significant community wide consequences.
There would, however, be aspects of adaptation which may appropriately be left to

market forces. For example, improved indoor comfort, more regular maintenance or
refurbishment are not conducive to government intervention.
If governments decide to intervene, there are a number of different tools governments

can use to address climate change adaptation. These different tools are also relevant
to the ABCB when considering the inclusion of building adaptation measures for
climate change in the BCA. These tools may be implemented individually or in
association with other tools. Different tools and adaptation measures may require
different time, cost and effort to implement. Generally, low risks would require
measures that are easier and less costly to implement. The most appropriate response
is determined after consideration of the desired outcome, the importance, likelihood
and consequences, the time, cost and effort of implementing the action, and the likely
benefits. Possible tools are represented below with those that are least costly, take
less time and effort on top.
Engaging with peak industry and environmental organisations, all levels of

government, and the community
Identify and promote available subsidies, grants and rebates
Undertaking partnerships with key stakeholders to maximise resources
Informing and educating stakeholders, including via the internet, media
Undertaking and accessing research
Producing non-regulatory guidelines and handbooks
Regulation through the BCA
Retrofitting existing buildings
Relocating buildings and services
28
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA
5. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND IMPACT ON

BUILDINGS/BCA
The following chapters identify for each of the climate change scenarios (ie wind,
rain, flood, drought, sea level rise/storm surge, salinity, extreme and average
temperature, humidity, snow, hail, bushfire, subsidence, durability) the current BCA
position, the effect of the climate change scenario on each building related issue (eg
structure, roof, footings etc), the risk rating and possible adaptation measures.
As stated earlier in 3.2, the primary BCA focus is life safety and protection of
neighbouring property from fire. This primary focus on life safety often also achieves
as a consequence, an element of property protection. In a number of cases, ensuring
the building is able to withstand extreme events is critical in protecting the lives of
occupants. For example, protecting people in buildings from the effects of a cyclone,
extreme wind, or bushfire relies on the building continuing to provide a shelter for the
duration of the hazard and thus remaining intact. Therefore, in this section, while the
primary focus matches the BCA objective of life safety, the impacts of climate change
on the building are also identified. The risk rating therefore identifies the potential
effects on the building as a result of climate change as well as the potential impacts on
life safety.
The risk rating takes into account the likelihood of an event occurring and the
consequence if the event did occur. There are five consequence categories used in this
paper as identified below in regard to life safety
1. Insignificant Appearance of a threat but no actual harm

2. Minor Serious near miss or minor injuries
3. Moderate Small number of injuries
4. Major Isolated serious injuries or loss of life
5. Catastrophic Loss of life/ large number of injuries
In general, the climate change scenarios relate to best estimates projected to 2030 and
2070, where such information is available.
5.1 WIND INTENSITY (INCLUDING CYCLONES)
Current BCA position:
BCA Volume One provides requirements for buildings of Class 2 - 9 (all buildings
except houses and small non-habitable buildings). The requirements are based on
specified design wind speeds affecting structural and glazing design. The design wind
speeds vary with the regions. Australia is divided into four regions A, B, C and D
with increasing design wind speeds. Regions A and B are known as non-cyclonic,
while Regions C and D are designated cyclonic. The design wind speed also varies
with the Importance level of the building. BCA has adopted a four Importance level
classification. The design wind speed is specified in terms of the annual probability of
exceedance as shown in Table 1.
29
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Wind Intensity (Including cyclones)
Importance Annual probability of exceedance

Level Non- cyclonic Cyclonic
1 1:100 1:200
2 1:500 1:500
3 1:1000 1:1000
4 1:2000 1:2000
Table 1: Specification of design wind speeds according to the BCA
For cyclonic regions, the BCA additionally requires cyclic testing of metal roof
cladding, its connections and immediate supporting members.
BCA Volume Two provides requirements for buildings of Class 1 & 10 (houses and
non-habitable buildings). In terms of Table 1, Buildings of Class 1 & 10 relate to
Importance level 2. However, for practical direct application, wind classification is
based on actual wind speeds on specific sites. Wind classes for non-cyclonic regions
vary from N1-N6 (34m/s to 86 m/s) and cyclonic regions C1-C4 (50 m/s to 86 m/s).
Particular BCA Provisions and referenced standards affected by the Wind issues are
provided in Appendix A1.1
The following information is extracted from CSIRO Climate Change in Australia

Report.1
Past climate change

For the non-cyclonic regions, mid-latitude westerly winds appear to have decreased
with a corresponding increase in wind speed in the polar latitudes. There has been a
20% reduction in the strength of the subtropical jet over Australia and an associated
reduction in the likelihood of synoptic disturbances developing over south-west
Western Australia since the early 1970.
For the cyclonic regions, analysis of the existing Australian cyclone data base
indicates substantial increases in detected tropical cyclone numbers with the advent of
weather radar in the late 1950s, although there have been apparent decreases in the
east Australian numbers since 1970s. A review of the WA tropical cyclone data base
identifies the proportion of tropical cyclones that was severe (i.e. category 3 or 4
cyclones) being larger (41%) during 1989-1998 than during the earlier period 1974
1988 (29%).
Climate change projections

Average wind speed projections
The average wind speed is likely to increase in most coastal areas in 2030 (best
estimate 2 to 5%) except for a band around 300 S in winter and 400 S in summer where
there are decreases (best estimate -2 to -5%). Later in the century changes can be
larger depending on the emission scenario. For 2070, best estimates increases of 15%
in some regions under one scenario but less than 10% everywhere under another
scenario.
30
Extreme wind speed projections

Extreme winds in summer are likely to be governed by small scale systems (including
tropical cyclones) that are not adequately captured by the resolution of the climate
models. Extreme winds in winter are more likely governed by larger scale systems
that are better captured at the resolution of the models.
Tropical cyclones: Likely increase in the proportion of the tropical cyclones in the
more intense categories, but a possible decrease in the total number of cyclones.
Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes: Conditions will become less suitable for the
occurrence of tornadoes in southern Australia in the cool season (May to October).
Risk rating Non-cyclonic regions
Likelihood
The likelihood of increases in extreme wind speeds in non-cyclonic regions appears to
be low. The projected increase (if any) is within the error band of current methods for
determining design wind speeds.
Consequence
Current situation: The consequences of damages to buildings due to extreme wind
could be wide spread particularly for existing buildings due to the general decay of
the infrastructure. For the period 1967 to 1999, annual cost of severe storms is $284
million24. A major part of the damage is property damage caused by water penetration
problems when the integrity of the building envelop is breached. Although it has been
reported over 770 people have died as a result of severe thunderstorms since 1824
(Blong 2005) 25, most of the deaths have been attributed to being struck by lightning,
falling trees or boat capsizing. There is no separate report on building related
fatalities. In summary, the life safety consequence of extreme wind acting on new
buildings in non-cyclone areas is moderate, taking into account the current level of
safety provided by the BCA.
Effects of climate change: The effects of climate change may place some areas
currently classified as 'non- cyclonic' to 'cyclonic'. This might cause radical changes to
design requirements and construction practice in these areas. For areas that still
remain 'non-cyclonic', the consequences of damage to buildings is likely to stay the
same as for current situation. New buildings are likely to sustain less damage
compared with older buildings due to the general deterioration of buildings with time
which might accelerate because of the effects of climate change (see 2.14 Durability).
Risk Rating Cyclonic regions
Likelihood
The likelihood of increases in extreme wind speeds in cyclonic regions is still open to
debate. A project is being sponsored by the ABCB to review the design wind speeds
and wind categories for the cyclonic regions of Australia. Further information is
24
BTE, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia. Report 103, Bureau of Transport
Economics, Canberra , 2001.
25
M Middelmann, Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements, Geosciences
Australia, Canberra, 2007, pp. 8297.
31
provided in the Regulation Impact Statement relating to construction in cyclone

affected regions which was available for public comment26 on 30 July 2010.
Consequence
Current situation: The costs of tropical cyclone impacts are well documented,
averaging $266 million per year from 1967 to 1999 but reduced to $80 million per
year from 1979 to 1999 with 1974 standing out because of Cyclone Tracy (BTE
2001).25 The reduction of damage in recent times could be attributed largely to
improved building regulatory measures, which have been responsible for reducing
annual average cyclone-related losses by nearly two thirds27. This results in an
estimated annual economic benefit to the nation of $1.4 billion in 2006 dollars27.
Although it has been reported over 2100 people have died as a result of cyclones since
1839 (Blong 2005)25, most of the deaths have been related to shipwreck. Only one
incidence of building related fatalities was reported (Cyclone George) since Cyclone
Tracy in 1974.
From investigations following recent cyclones, there are known issues that need to be
resolved, such as the boundaries of the cyclonic regions, the appropriateness of the
current classification system, and the extent of inland penetration of cyclones. There
are also known areas of vulnerability such as shed like buildings and garage doors.
High wind speed can also cause storm surge, which in combination with high tide
could cause wide spread inundation (see 2.3 Flood).
Effects of climate change: The concern for the cyclonic regions is similar to that of
the non cyclonic regions, that the general deterioration of buildings with time will
result in more damage to old buildings and the deterioration will be accelerated as
result of climate change. If there is any change to the boundaries of the cyclonic
regions, the main concern will be for these new 'cyclonic' areas since the building
regulation, design and construction practice for these areas will have to undergo
radical changes as well as the community awareness and acceptance. In summary, the
life safety consequence of extreme wind acting on new buildings in cyclone areas is
moderate, taking into account the current level of safety provided by the BCA.
Proposed adaptation measures
Within BCA
Changes the design wind speeds and/or the boundaries of the cyclonic regions:
This can only be done if more research is carried out to quantify the
magnitudes of the required changes. For this purpose the ABCB recently
commissioned JDH Consulting to undertake a review of the effects of climate
change on design wind speeds and the boundaries of the cyclonic regions. The
report is titled "Impact of climate change on design wind speeds in cyclonic
regions".28 A RIS dealing with the matter was placed on the ABCB website
on 30 July 2010.
26
www.abcb.gov.au
27
McAneney, Crompton and Coates, Financial benefits arising from improved wind loading
construction standards in Tropical-Cyclone prone areas of Australia, Risk Frontiers, Macquarie
University, 2007
28
www.abcb.gov.au
32
Extension of the required cyclic testing to cover other types of roof claddings:
A much wider variety of roof claddings is now being used in cyclone regions,
some may fail under cyclic loading condition similar to metal roofing (e.g.
metal tile clips, polycarbonate roofing etc.). This requires further investigation
before any provisions are introduced into the BCA.
Better design rules to prevent damages caused by wind-borne debris.
External to BCA
Remove known areas of vulnerability: such as strengthening of garage doors

and shed-like buildings in cyclonic regions. These require better industry
practice and better enforcement of the building regulation. The outcomes will
remain useful regardless of the magnitude of climate changes.
Further research needs
Review of the effects of climate changes on design wind speeds (including

downbursts in non-cyclone areas) and the boundaries of the cyclonic regions.
Review AS/NZS 1170.2:2002 Wind actions.
Investigate the need for the extension of cyclic testing requirements to other
roofing construction
Investigate the need for better design rules for wind-borne debris.
Engage the insurance industry to better understand what is driving insurance
losses during cyclone events.
33
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Rain Intensity
5.2 RAINFALL
This chapter deals with rainfall and its impact on buildings. It covers the prevention
of rainwater entering buildings or making sure they don't leak. This chapter does not
cover flooding or flash flooding resulting from intense rainfall, which are dealt with in
the chapter on flooding.
Current BCA Position
BCA Vol One

Surface water (water resulting from rainfall on or around the site or water flowing
onto the site, including that flowing from a drain, stream, river, lake or sea) resulting
from a storm having an average recurrence interval of 100 years must not enter the
building (FP1.2).
A drainage system for the disposal of surface water must convey the water to an
outfall, avoid the entry of water into a building, and avoid water damaging the
building (FP1.3).
A roof and external walls must prevent the penetration of water that could cause
unhealthy or dangerous conditions, or loss of amenity for occupants, and undue
dampness or deterioration of building elements (FP1.4).
Under B1.2(e), rainwater action is identified as an action effect on a building.
Stormwater drainage must comply with AS/NZS 3500.3 (2003) Stormwater Drainage
(F1.1).
Roof coverings (concrete or terracotta roof tiles, sheet roofing (cellulose cement,
metal or plastic), and asphalt shingles) must comply (ie designed and installed) with
the relevant Australian Standards.
BCA Vol Two

As per BCA Vol One with the following additions-
Permits design and construction of drainage in accordance with AS/NZS 3500.5 in

addition to AS/NZS 3500.3 (3.1.2.0).
For site drainage, the acceptable solution is based on 5 minute duration rainfall
intensities of not more than 255 mm per hour over an average recurrence interval
of 20 years (3.1.2.1(a)).
For slab-on-ground construction, the external finished surface surrounding the

slab must be drained to move surface water away from the building and graded to
give a slope of not less than 50 mm over the first 1 m from the building
(3.1.2.3(a)).
The height of the slab-on-ground above external finished surfaces must be not less
than 150 mm above finished ground level; or 100 mm above sandy, well-drained
areas; or 50 mm above paved or concreted areas (3.1.2.3(b)).
34
The size of roof drainage eave gutters is based on a 5 minute rainfall intensity with
a 20 year average recurrence interval. The size of internal box and valley gutters
is based on a 5 minute rainfall intensity with a 100 year average recurrence
interval (3.5.2.3). Table 3.5.2.1 lists 5 minute rainfall intensities for 20 and 100
year average recurrence intervals for major centres in every State and Territory.
AS 1562.1 1992, Design and installation of sheet roof and wall cladding Part 1:
Metal, specifies the cladding system shall provide adequate water resistance when
subjected to a 100-year storm (see AS 2180).
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by rain intensity are
Effects of Climate Change -Rainfall
Past climate change

Over the past 50 years in Australia, rainfall trends indicate a drying of the east coast,
southwest and southeast of the continent and increases in rainfall over northwest and
central Australia. There is also evidence of abrupt or stepped changes in rainfall as
has occurred in the south west region of Western Australia. 29
Climate Change Projections

(Information sourced from Climate Change in Australia observed changes and
projections - CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the Australian
Climate Change Science Programme)
Climate model results for rainfall change show decreases and increases for many
locations, but the main tendency is a decrease in most cases. Decreases in rainfall are
likely in southern areas in the annual average and in winter, in southern and eastern
areas in spring, and along the west coast in autumn.
For 2030, the annual rainfall is not likely to change in the far north and decreases of
2% to 5% are likely elsewhere. Decreases of around 5% are likely in winter and
spring, particularly in the south-west where they reach 10%. In summer and autumn,
decreases are smaller and there are slight increases in New South Wales in summer.
There is a 20% to 30% chance of an annual rainfall decrease of at least 10% in
western and central areas.
Natural variability in rainfall is comparable with climate change projections, and it

therefore may hide or exacerbate changes due to climate change.
In 2070 for the low emissions case, the range of annual rainfall change is -20% to
+10% in central, eastern and northern areas, and likely little change in the far north
grading to around -7.5% elsewhere. For southern areas the range is from -20% to little
change, with a best estimate of around -7.5%. Seasonal changes follow the pattern
seen for 2030, but are correspondingly larger. There is a 40% to 50% chance of a
simulated annual rainfall decrease of at least 10% in western and central areas, and
29
AGO, Climate change impacts and risk assessment: a guide for business and government, 2006
35
there is a 10% to 20% chance of rainfall decreases of at least 20% in these areas.
There is a 10% to 20% chance of rainfall increases of at least 10% in parts of the
north.
In 2070 for the high emissions case, the range of annual rainfall change in central,
eastern and northern areas grows to -30% to +20%, with a best estimate of little
change in the far north grading to around -10% in the south-west. For southern areas
the range is from -30% to +5%, with a best estimate of around -10%. Seasonal
changes may be larger, with projected winter and spring decreases in the south-west
of up to 40%. There is a 40% to 50% chance of rainfall decreases of at least 20% in
the south-west. There is a 10% to 20% chance of rainfall increases of at least 20% in
the north.
Models also show an increase in daily rainfall intensity and in the number of dry days.
Extreme daily rainfall tends to increase in many areas but not in the south in winter
and spring when there is a strong decrease in mean rainfall.
Risk Rating
Likelihood
Current situation
The likelihood of current rainfall intensity (not taking into account flooding) causing
widespread damage to buildings is low. There is a low risk of water ingress in
buildings due to increased rainfall intensity alone (not flooding caused by rivers or
lakes etc overflowing their banks or storm surge) as a result of leaking roofing
material, inadequate internal box or valley gutters, or external gutters draining back
into the building. However, water ingress in buildings can occur even with moderate
winds and is likely during severe tropical cyclones due to the long duration of the
event and the severe winds forcing water through spaces it would not normally go.

There is expected to be some increase in rainfall intensity i.e. an increase in the 5
minute rainfall intensity for a given average recurrence interval, but overall there is
likely to be a decrease in annual rainfall, except for a possible increase in the north.
Consequences
Current situation
During Tropical Cyclone Vance in March 1999, rainfall of up to 300mm fell with
accompanying wind speeds of up to 267km/hr (a record wind gust speed for the
Australian mainland), causing significant water ingress even though the envelope and
structure of most buildings remained intact. In a number of cases, wind pressure
forced rainwater to rise vertically up external walls and enter the roof space causing
plasterboard ceilings to fail and damage to building contents. However, this was an
extreme event and it would be reasonable to accept some damage to buildings in such
an event. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that even in such an extreme event,
most buildings remained structurally sound.

Given the current variability of rainfall events, the likelihood of a meaningful increase
in damage to buildings caused by leaking roofs or overflowing gutters as result of
36
rainfall intensity due to climate change is likely to be low. The exception is in

relation to internal box and valley gutters, which if they overflow, could cause water
ingress into the building. This is not such an issue for external gutters which if they
overflow, should not leak back into the building. Also, if the ground around the
building correctly slopes away from the building and to an outfall as required by BCA
Vol Two, there is little likelihood of stormwater flowing back into the building.
On the basis of this information, the bulk of current BCA requirements for roof
cladding, site drainage and roof drainage would appear adequate. However, the
design of internal box and valley gutters may need to be upgraded to cope with higher
expected rainfall intensity and care needs to be taken to ensure overflowing gutters do
not leak back into the building. In summary, the life safety consequence of increased
rainfall acting on new buildings is insignificant, taking into account the current level
of safety provided by the BCA.
Within BCA
The only BCA adaptation measures proposed for the direct impacts of rainfall
intensity at this stage relate to the design of internal box and valley gutters and
detailing improvements to ensure overflowing gutters do not drain back into the
building. Issues relating to other rainfall considerations including flood, drought,
bushfire and subsidence are addressed under other topics.
External to BCA
Increasing capacity of stormwater drains and measures external to the property.
While there is identified a likely increase in rainfall intensity e.g. the 5 minute rainfall
intensity for a given average recurrence interval, there is no indication of the
magnitude of this likely increase. Insurance losses due to water ingress occurring
even in moderate wind events could also be investigated.
37
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Flood
5.3 FLOOD
This chapter deals with flooding due to intense rainfall, and includes flash flooding,
and overtopping of streams, creeks, rivers, lakes or dams as a result of intense rainfall.
Inundation due to sea level rise or storm surge is addressed in a separate chapter (see
2.5 sea level rise/storm surge).
BCA Volumes One and Two contain provisions relating to surface water and
stormwater. The BCA definition of surface water i.e. "all naturally occurring water,
other than sub-surface water, which results from rainfall on or around the site or water
flowing onto the site, including that flowing from a drain, stream, river, lake or sea"
appears to address flooding. However, there are no specific deemed-to-satisfy
provisions in the BCA covering flooding. Using the BCA principle that a building
which complies with all the relevant deemed-to-satisfy provisions also meets the
performance provisions, means that under the BCA most buildings are not designed to
deal with flooding.
BCA Vol One

Surface water resulting from a storm having an average recurrence interval of 100
years must not enter the building (FP1.2). Surface water is defined as "all naturally
occurring water, other than sub-surface water, which results from rainfall on or
around the site or water flowing onto the site, including that flowing from a drain,
stream, river, lake or sea".
building (FP1.3).
Under BP1.1(a), a building or structure must remain stable and not collapse by
resisting the actions to which it may reasonably be subjected. BP1.1(b) lists the
actions to be considered which includes liquid pressure action.
Under B1.2(e), liquid pressure action is identified as an action effect on a building

which must be taken into account in the building design. Other actions not specified
but which should be taken into consideration include debris loading in areas likely to
be subject to flowing flood waters, and the effect of scour on footing systems.
Stormwater drainage must comply with AS/NZS 3500.3 (2003) Stormwater Drainage
(F1.1).
BCA Vol Two


For site drainage, the acceptable solution is based on 5 minute duration rainfall
intensities of not more than 255 mm per hour over an average recurrence interval
of 20 years (3.1.2.1(a)).
38

(3.1.2.3(a)).
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by flood are provided in
Appendix A1.3
Effects of Climate Change -Flood
Past climate change impact on buildings

Under the BCA buildings are usually not specifically designed to cope with flooding.
Instead, each area that is subject to flooding will have its own set of rules typically
applied at local government level and are often based on historic data without
adjustment for climate change. Therefore, some houses are vulnerable to damage
(both structural and non-structural) when flooding occurs.
There is also a lack of awareness that many houses are built on flood plains because
often there is no desire to highlight this issue at a council or community level. If the
highest recorded flood level on the Hawkesbury River (in 1867) were to occur again,
30,000 or more houses would be flooded. 30
In some areas where planning requirements have been introduced (e.g. Gold Coast),
higher minimum floor levels or two story housing designed for the lower level to
flood, will mean these houses will cope better. Another key mechanism to reduce the
likelihood of damage is to prevent the siting of building on floodplains. Land use
management to limit the use of floodplains for development are typically covered by
planning and development regulations, as is the engineering of structures in the
floodplain to withstand flood forces e.g. levee banks, flood walls, dams etc. Relying
on the local councils to enforce, inform and educate their communities on the risks of
flooding can be problematic because at the same time they are continually trying to
promote their local areas.

There is a greater chance of flooding events in areas where increased rainfall intensity
and storms events are likely (ie summer and autumn for northern and eastern
Australia, winter and spring for far south-east and Tasmania). The magnitude of the
localised flooding event will depend on the drainage system capacity including roof
drainage, stormwater systems, sewer connections, and physical characteristics of each
catchment.
30
Hawkesbury-Nepean Floodplain Management Steering Committee (2004)
39
Risk Rating
Likelihood
Current situation
Intense rainfall can cause localised flash flooding. This is because intense rainfall
over a short period of time can overwhelm stormwater and drainage infrastructure
leading to usually short term localised flooding. A feature of flash flooding is that it
can occur very quickly, often with little warning, and usually dissipates quickly once
the rain stops.

There is expected to be some increase in rainfall intensity i.e. an increase in the 5
minute rainfall intensity for a given average recurrence interval, and an increase in the
intensity of cyclones leading to an increase in localised flood events.
Consequences
Current situation
Floods have been estimated to contribute 29% of the average annual natural hazard
damage in Australia, costing around $314 million each year, which makes flooding
the most expensive natural disaster in Australia31.
Flash flooding can quickly inundate houses putting residents, particularly the elderly
and infirm, at risk. On the morning of 15 February 2008, Mackay in north
Queensland recorded 600 millimetres of rainfall in six hours - the biggest deluge in
Mackay in the last 90 years, forcing 1,000 residents to flee their homes and damage to
more than 2000 dwellings.32

There is an increased risk of damage to buildings due to flooding in low lying or
coastal areas as a result of climate change. Intense rainfall increases due to more
intense cyclones and low pressure systems are likely to result in increased flash
flooding and greater risk of creeks, streams, rivers, lakes and dams overtopping
causing more widespread flooding.
More frequent and intense flooding due to climate change, would result in more
damage to building contents (including interior linings, furnishings, appliances,
equipment and plant), greater health risks as a result of sewerage and mud
contamination and possible structural problems (possibly due to coastal erosion and
undermining and/or destruction of foundations).9 In summary, the life safety
consequence of flood acting on new buildings is moderate, taking into account the
current level of death and injury of building occupants in flood situations, in spite of
the current minimal provisions relating to flood in the BCA. To address the situation
of minimal flood provisions in the BCA, the 2010-11 ABCB work program includes a
project to develop a flood standard and advisory information relating to the design and
construction of buildings in flood prone areas.
31
BTE 2001, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia, Report 103, Bureau of Transport
Economics, Canberra
32
AMSA, 2008 summer edition: Mackay floods, AMSA board, 2008
http://www.amsa.gov.au/publications/amsaaboard/2008_summer.htm#mackay, viewed 26 March 2008.
40
Possible Adaptation Measures
Within BCA
In addition to avoiding building on flood prone land, other possible adaptation

measures include-
Increase minimum floor levels above flood level (with an additional freeboard
to allow for uncertainly and wave action)
Consider multi-storey construction
Use water-resistant construction materials (particularly below flood level)
Protect vulnerable services or install them above the flood level
Stronger foundations and design the building for flood loading and inundation
Improve building and site stormwater drainage systems
Permit the ready drainage of water when the flood has subsided
Consider access routes to reduce reliance on emergency services
While commercial buildings are likely to be at greater risk of flooding than houses
(mostly due to location, surrounded by impermeable surfaces, inadequate urban
stormwater drainage systems, and therefore may suffer more damage than houses),
they are also likely to suffer damage less as they are usually constructed of flood
resistant materials (i.e. concrete and masonry). A possible commercial building
adaptation measure is to locate vital services and equipment (lifts, boilers, plant,
switchboards, computer networks, telecommunications etc) above the flood level.
External to BCA
More extreme rainfall events and rises in sea-levels may require the development of
new flood and stormwater strategies for low-lying suburbs. Some buildings in flood
prone areas could become uninsurable, or at least face massive increases in premiums.
While one solution would be to avoid river flood plains and low-lying coastal areas
when planning and approving future property developments, these areas have become
areas of choice by an increasing number of sea-changers and others moving to
coastal areas, especially as many of the coastal suburbs are in low lying and reclaimed
areas.
Further Research Needs
Further research is required to determine the impact of increased rainfall intensity on
individual catchments and how this will impact on current flood levels.
Further investigation is also necessary to incorporate flooding into both land-use
planning and building standards, so they work effectively together ensuring no gaps
in the building process. Note that the 2010-11 ABCB work program includes a project
to develop a flood standard suitable for referencing in the BCA.
More research is also required to understand and manage the risks from flash
flooding, which is particularly a problem for urban areas. Some areas also require
further information in relation to riverine flooding.
Refer also to chapters on rainfall, and on sea level rise and storm surge.
41
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Drought
5.4 DROUGHT
BCA Vol One

There are no specific provisions in the BCA dealing with drought. However, drought
has a bearing on soil moisture levels and subsequent soil movement, with particular
importance in reactive clay soils. Under BP1.1, a building or structure, to the degree
necessary, must remain stable, minimise local damage and loss of amenity through
excessive deformation or degradation. The actions to be resisted include ground
movement caused by shrinkage of the subsoil and subsidence. Subsidence is dealt
with in more detail under a separate heading.
Sustained periods of drought may also have a significant impact on water

infrastructure and the availability of a reliable water supply for everyday needs and
for fire fighting. Therefore, there could be greater pressure on making buildings more
self sufficient by the use of on-site rainwater collection systems, or waste water reuse.
BCA Vol Two

AS 2870 the Residential slabs and footings code is referenced in 3.2.0 as an

acceptable construction manual. Footing systems are designed to AS 2870 to achieve
acceptable probabilities of serviceability and safety of the building during its design
life, on the basis of selecting the appropriate site classification for the likely moisture
conditions. If the moisture conditions are to significantly change, for example during
sustained periods of drought, the footing systems may not be structurally able to resist
the subsequent soil movement without greater levels of damage to the building (e.g.
greater cracks in walls and floor slabs) than predicted by the standard.
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by drought are provided
in Appendix A1.4
Effects of Climate Change -Drought
Past climate change

In Australia, direct relationships between drought and global warming have been
inferred through the extreme nature of high temperatures and heatwaves
accompanying recent droughts, i.e. droughts are becoming hotter (Nicholls 2004).
Since the start of the 20th century, the period of lowest rainfall across Australia was
from the 1930s to the early 1940s. However, in the more recent droughts both the
maximum and minimum temperatures have been higher (e.g. 2002 drought), as has
potential evaporation. This may have exacerbated the impact of drought in regions
where warming increases water demand and surface water loss.1

Higher temperatures are likely to increase evaporation. The difference between
potential evaporation and rainfall gives net moisture or water balance. Most parts of
Australia have a net water balance deficit potential evaporation is greater than
rainfall. Projections by the CSIRO indicate that in all regions of Australia annual
42
water balance is likely to decrease, regardless of whether rainfall increases or

decreases. Average decreases in water balance range from 15 to 150 mm by 2030 and
40 to 500 mm by 2070, with the greatest decreases occurring in spring. 29 This means
reduced run-off and greater moisture stress for most parts of Australia.
Regional projections for rainfall are less certain than for temperature. Average rainfall
is expected to decrease or remain about the same in most of southern and eastern
Australia but may increase in northern-western Australia. However, when increased
evaporation due to higher temperatures is taken into account, drier conditions are
expected even in places where there is more rain.
Drought occurrence is projected to increase over most of Australia, but particularly in

south-western Australia. A tendency for drying of the midcontinental areas during
summer is expected to increase the risk of droughts in those regions.
The main types of drought of importance to buildings is meteorological drought i.e. a

period of months to years when atmospheric conditions result in low rainfall. This can
be exacerbated by high temperatures and evaporation, low humidity and desiccating
winds. 29 The impact of drought on the particular soil type influences soil moisture
content and subsequent soil movement which must be resisted by the building's
footing system.
Risk Rating
Likelihood
Current situation
Anecdotally, it appears recent droughts are increasing the incidence of footing
failures. Houses 40-50 years old are experiencing cracking in masonry walls for the
first time, due to foundation movement not previously experienced.

Drought projections predict up to 20% more drought months over most of Australia
by 2030, with up to 40% more droughts by 2070 in eastern Australia, and up to 80%
more in south-western Australia (Mpelasoka et al. 2007).1
Consequences
Current situation
Building footing failures due to soil movement caused by drought are relatively
expensive to rectify, particularly if underpinning is required and walls/floors need
repair. The Queensland Building Services Authority reports that in 2006/07 there
were 763 approved subsidence claims totalling $7.47M covered by its insurance
fund.33 Note that claims can only be successful if the house is less than 6.5 years old
(from contract signing), so older homes are not included in the above data.
33
Queensland Building Services Authority Annual Report 2006 2007, Queensland Buildings Service
Authority, 2007, p.16.
43

More severe and longer droughts are likely to exacerbate footing stress leading to a
greater incidence of footing failures.
Greater water demand due to increasing population, development, agriculture and

industry and power generation needs, accompanied by reduced rainfall, groundwater
depletion and higher temperatures will result in increasing pressure on water
infrastructure. Higher bushfire risk could also lead to contamination of water storage
facilities as occurred in the 2003 Canberra bushfires. There could be a shift from
buildings relying primarily on public water infrastructure to being more self sufficient
by collecting rainwater or reusing greywater. Measures are also likely to be
introduced to reduce building water demand through the use of efficient water fixtures
and appliances, such as water efficient shower heads, more efficient toilet flushing
and waterless urinals. In summary, the life safety consequence of drought acting on
new buildings is negligible, taking into account the current level of safety provided by
the BCA.
Proposed Adaptation Measures
Within BCA
To reflect changes to referenced Australian Standards.
External to BCA
Footings are difficult and expensive to upgrade/repair during the life of a building.
Therefore, it is important to ensure the footing system is suitable for the building's
design life.
It may be appropriate to review Australian Standard AS 2870 Residential slabs and

footings, in light of projected increases in droughts and subsequent variations in soil
moisture content. This could result in the need for stronger and stiffer footings to
resist greater soil movements to maintain current levels of structural safety and
serviceability. If changes are made to AS 2870, the footings provisions of BCA Vol
Two will need to be amended accordingly.
If governments decide to reduce building water demand via water efficiency measures
or rainwater collection or greywater reuse methods, it would be appropriate to
consider including these measures in the BCA.
One method water authorities are using to reduce water leakages and losses in pipes
and other infrastructure is to reduce pressure in that infrastructure. This may lead to a
consequential effect of inadequate water pressure for fire fighting for medium sized
and large buildings. In future, public water infrastructure may be inadequate for fire
fighting and buildings may need to provide their own water storage for fire fighting
purposes.
Issues relating to other drought considerations including bushfire and subsidence are
addressed under other topics.
44
The relationship between drought and soil moisture loss resulting in increased
potential for soil movement and subsidence needs to be further investigated. This will
impact on the design of building footings.
45
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Sea level rise/ storm surge
5.5 SEA LEVEL RISE/STORM SURGE
This chapter deals with the impacts of sea level rise due to climate change, and the
impacts of storm surge associated with tropical cyclones or intense low pressure
systems in non-cyclonic areas. The chapter does not deal with tsunamis resulting
from earthquakes, undersea landslides, volcanic eruptions or other causes, because
they are not climate related.
For other causes of flooding see chapters on rain intensity and flooding.
The BCA performance provisions include requirements ensuring buildings and

structures can resist liquid pressure action without collapsing, and that water resulting
from a specified storm (including water from the sea) does not enter buildings. Liquid
pressure action is not defined and could include water pressure from storm surge or
storm tides.
The BCA deemed-to-satisfy provisions relating to the impact of water on buildings

and structures, cover surface water or rainwater resulting from a specified storm.
Inundation of buildings due to sea level rise resulting from climate change alone and
not resulting from a storm, is not presently covered. However, storm surge resulting
from a 1 in a 100 year storm taking into account a higher base water level due to sea
level rise can be argued is addressed by the BCA. This is because storm surge is
included in the definition of surface water i.e. water flowing onto the site from the
sea, and resulting from a storm.
Therefore, it could be interpreted the BCA currently addresses the structural adequacy
of buildings subject to water pressures, wave action, scour and debris loading
resulting from storm surge, but does not address risk to occupants or damage to
buildings as a result of sea level rise that is not storm related.
BCA Vol One

building (FP1.3).
Under BP1.1(a), a building or structure must remain stable and not collapse by
resisting the actions to which it may reasonably be subjected. BP1.1(b) lists the
actions to be considered which includes liquid pressure action.
Under B1.2(e), liquid pressure action is identified as an action effect on a building

which must be taken into account in the building design. Other actions not specified
but which should be taken into consideration include debris loading in storm surge
affected areas, and the effect of scour on footing systems.
Surface water resulting from a storm having an average recurrence interval of 100
years must not enter the building (FP1.2). Surface water is defined as "all naturally
occurring water, other than sub-surface water, which results from rainfall on or
46
around the site or water flowing onto the site, including that flowing from a drain,
stream, river, lake or sea" (A1.1).
BCA Vol Two



(3.1.2.3(a)).
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by sea level rise/storm
surge are provided in Appendix A1.5
Effects of Climate Change - Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge
Past climate change

Mean sea level rise occurs as a result of two main processes - the melting of land-
based ice, which increases the height of the ocean, and a decrease in ocean density,
which increases the volume and hence also increases the height of the ocean.
Increases in ocean density in most parts of the world, including Australia, occur
largely due to increases in the heat content of the ocean rather than reductions in
salinity.
Global sea levels rose by approximately 17 cm during the twentieth century. The
average rate between 1950 and 2000 was 1.8 0.3 mm per year, but for the period
when satellite data is available (i.e. from 1993), the rate increased to 3 mm per year.
Since 1990, the observed rate of global sea level rise corresponds to the upper limit of
IPCC projections. For the period 1950 to 2000, sea level rose at all of the Australian
coastal sites monitored, with substantial variability in trends from location to location.
Over the period 1920 to 2000 the estimated average relative sea level rise around
Australia was 1.2 mm per year (Church et al. 2006).1
Storm surge is potentially the most destructive phenomenon associated with cyclones
that make landfall. Storm surge is a raised mound of seawater typically some 50
kilometres across and up to several metres higher than the normal tide. The storm tide
is the combined height of the astronomical (or normal) tide and the storm surge. The
worst possible scenario arises when a severe cyclone crosses a coastline with a gently
sloping seabed at or close to high tide. Wave action on top of the storm tide can raise
the water level even further producing a battering effect on vulnerable structures.
47
During tropical cyclone Vance in March 1999, a storm surge at Exmouth measured to
be 3.6m high caused severe erosion of the marina and inundation of the beachfront.
At Onslow, the storm surge was 4m high.34
Possibly two of the most destructive storm surges occurred in 1918. On 21 January
1918 a tropical cyclone crossed the coast just north of Mackay bringing a 3.6 m storm
surge into Mackay. Hardly any building in Mackay escaped damage and a thousand
were destroyed. Observers saw a wall of water 7.6 m high sweep over the beaches
towards the town and waves 2.4 to 2.7 m high breaking in the centre of Mackay. 20
people died in Mackay and a further 30 died in the subsequent floods in Central
Queensland.35
On 10 March 1918 a tropical cyclone passed directly over Innisfail with a recorded
pressure of 926 hPa making it possibly the worst cyclone to hit a populated area of
Queensland. In Innisfail, then a town of 3,500 residents, only around 12 houses
remained intact. The sea rose to a height of 4.65 m above the normal tide levels for
that day. Mission Beach was covered by 3.6 m of water, extending hundreds of
metres inland. All buildings and structures were destroyed by the storm surge in the
Bingil Bay to Mission beach area. 37 people died at Innisfail while 40-60 lost their
lives in nearby areas.35

Sea level rise
Global sea level rise is projected by the IPCC to be 18-59 cm by 2100, with a possible
additional contribution from ice sheets of 10 to 20 cm. However, further ice sheet
contributions that cannot be quantified at this time may increase the upper limit of sea
level rise substantially. Global climate models indicate that mean sea level rise on the
east coast of Australia may be greater than the global mean sea level rise.1
Severe storms can produce temporary increases in sea surface height. These increases
may occur as a result of several different mechanisms such as wind setup, inverse
barometer effect, current setup, wave setup and wave run-up (Hennessy et al 2004).9
Storm surge
The effect of rising mean sea levels will be felt most profoundly during extreme storm
conditions, such as during tropical cyclones, when strong winds and falling pressure
bring about a temporary and localised increase in sea level known as a storm surge.
Storm surges occurring on higher mean sea levels will enable inundation and
damaging waves to penetrate further inland. This would increase flooding, erosion
and damage to built infrastructure. Changes to wind speed will also affect storm surge
height. Storm surge studies for portions of the Victorian and Queensland coasts
demonstrate the potential for significant increases in inundation due to higher mean
sea level and more intense weather systems. As with temperature and precipitation, it
may not be the mean sea level changes that have the greatest impacts, but the extreme
sea level events.
34
BOM, Severe Tropical Cyclone Vance, Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/vance.shtml, viewed 11 April 2008.
35
BOM, Tropical Cyclones in Queensland: Historical Impacts Along The East Coast,
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/about/cyclones-eastern-impacts.shtml, viewed 11 April 2008.
48
If there is to be an increase in cyclone intensity, the risk of flooding as a result of

storm surges associated with cyclones is also likely to increase. Taking into account
an increase in storm intensity and a 10-40 cm rise in mean sea-level by the year 2050,
and applying this to the historic case of flooding due to Cyclone Wanda, there is
likely to be an increase of between 3 and 18% in the number of dwellings and people
affected for the Gold Coast region (Abbs et al 2001). 9
McInnes et al (2000 and 2003) estimated the height of storm tides in Cairns for the
present climate and for the year 2050. The present 1-in-100-year storm tide height of
about 2.3 m increased to about 2.6 m by 2050 due to increased cyclone intensity (10
hPa drop in central pressure). With an additional 10 to 40 cm sea-level rise, the 1-in
100-year event would be about 2.7-3.0 m (ie a 0.4-0.7m increase). In southern
Queensland locations such as the Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay, the increase in the
100-year storm tide events were 0.45 m and 0.5 m respectively with the changes
dominated by the sea level rise.
Risk Rating
Likelihood
Current situation
Not every tropical cyclone (or intense low-pressure systems in non-tropical areas) in
the past has been accompanied by a damaging storm surge event. Factors influencing
the occurrence and severity of storm surge events include the intensity, direction and
speed of the cyclone (or intense low-pressure system), the tide height when the storm
surge occurs, the slope of the beach, local topography, and the proximity to
development. Damaging storm surge events have occurred in the past, though not
frequently. Therefore, there is a low to moderate likelihood of a damaging storm
surge event affecting a populated coastal area. On average, around 5 tropical cyclones
cross the Australian coast annually.

Climate change is expected to cause sea level rise and more intense cyclones and
storm events. Both these factors will bring about an increase in the likelihood and
height of storm surges.
Consequences
Current situation
The life safety consequences of a damaging storm surge event can be catastrophic.
The 1918 cyclone and associate storm surge affecting Innisfail (population then
around 3,500) left only 12 houses standing and caused around 100 deaths. The 1918
cyclone/storm surge affecting Mackay destroyed a thousand buildings and caused
around 50 deaths. A number of other potentially damaging storm surges associated
with severe cyclones affecting Australia's coast (eg Althea 1971 and Tracy 1974)
fortunately coincided with low tide and caused relatively minor damage.

The impact of sea-level rise and more intense cyclones and storm events is likely to
increase the height of storm surges causing more severe coastal and inland flooding.
Therefore, the consequential damage to buildings is also likely to increase in the
following areas:
49
water damage to building contents (interior linings, furnishings, appliances,

equipment and plant)
possible contamination of interior of building from sewage, soil and mud
undermining and/or destruction of foundations, potentially leading to structural
collapse
salt spray (coastal) affecting most materials durability
coastal erosion (in some areas likely to be severe) resulting in loss or damage to
property.
Proposed Adaptation Measures
Within BCA
Review adequacy of current provisions relating to structural capacity and height of

floors.
External to BCA
Controlling new development in areas subject to sea level rise or storm surge is
primarily a local government planning responsibility. Planning instruments can
identify and map the land at risk of sea level rise or storm surge and either restrict
development in these areas, or permit it subject to conditions. An added pressure for
local governments is that these areas likely to be affected by sea level rise and storm
surge are becoming increasingly popular for retirees and people seeking a sea change.
A March 2008 court decision in South Australia (Northcape Properties Pty Ltd V
District Council of Yorke Peninsula 2008 SASC 57) supported a local government
planning restriction of development in an area at risk of sea level rise due to climate
change. The South Australian Supreme Court ruled that predicted sea level rises are a
valid reason to reject a subdivision on Yorke Peninsula, west of Adelaide where the
local council had written stringent climate change clauses into its planning rules. The
Court cited local sea level rises of 30cm over the next 50 years in ruling against a
subdivision proposal. The court ruled the changes are expected and are not merely a
probability and they would cause the waterline to recede inland by 35-40m in the next
100 years.
If new buildings are permitted to be located in these affected areas, any building
measures relating to structural adequacy, selection of appropriate water resistant
materials, location of services etc should be located in the BCA not in planning
instruments.
Existing buildings located in areas subject to increasing risk of sea level rise or storm
surge may require the development of new flood and stormwater strategies.
Further research is required to provide detailed maps of coastal areas indicating the
likely sea level rise and the areas likely to be impacted by storm surge. This
information can then inform local government planning instruments.
50
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Salinity
5.6 SALINITY
BCA Vol One

Under BP1.1, buildings are required to remain stable by resisting the actions to which
it may be subjected such as ground water action.
Under FP1.5, moisture from the ground must be prevented from causing undue
dampness or deterioration of building elements, and unhealthy or dangerous
conditions, or loss of amenity for occupants. FP1.5 does not apply to a Class 7 or 8
building, a garage, tool shed, sanitary compartment, or the like, or an open spectator
stand or open-deck carpark.
Under F1.9, moisture from the ground must be prevented from reaching the lowest
floor timbers and the walls above the lowest floor joists; and the walls above the
damp-proof course; and the underside of a suspended floor constructed of a material
other than timber, and the supporting beams or girders. Where a damp-proof course is
provided, it must consist of a material that complies with AS/NZS 2904; or
impervious termite shields in accordance with AS 3660.1. F1.9 does not apply to a
Class 7 or 8 building, a garage, tool shed, sanitary compartment, or the like, or an
open spectator stand or open-deck carpark.
Under F1.10, if a floor of a room is laid on the ground or on fill, moisture from the
ground must be prevented from reaching the upper surface of the floor and adjacent
walls by the insertion of a vapour barrier in accordance with AS 2870.
BCA Vol Two

Under P2.2.3, moisture from the ground must be prevented from causing unhealthy or
dangerous conditions, or loss of amenity for occupants; and undue dampness or
deterioration of building elements. P2.2.3 does not apply to a Class 10 building where
in the particular case there is no necessity for compliance.
Under 3.1.2.3, surface water must be diverted away from Class 1 buildings.
3.1.2.3 specifies the minimum height of a concrete slab above the finished external
surfaces and requires the external finished surface to be graded away from the
building. For suspended floors, the ground beneath the floor must be above the
adjacent external finished ground level to prevent water ponding under the building.
Under 3.2.2.6, a vapour barrier must be installed under slab-on-ground construction

for all Class 1 buildings (and for Class 10 buildings where the slab is continuous with
the slab of a Class 1 building) using a 0.2 mm nominal thickness medium impact
resistant polyethylene film determined in accordance with criteria specified in clause
5.3.3.2(c) of AS 2870.
3.3.4.4 and 3.3.4.5 specify appropriate damp-proof courses and their installation and
reference AS/NZS 2904.
51
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Salinity
3.3.1.5 specifies that masonry units used below the damp-proof course must be
Exposure Class, where walls are expected to be attacked by salts in the groundwater
or brickwork itself as a result of salt attack or salt damp.
3.3.1.6 has requirements for mortar mixes and Table 3.3.1.2 specifies the mortar mix
for Exposure Class masonry.
Documents referenced by the BCA which consider salt attack include:

AS 2159 - 1995 Piling - Design and Installation contains durability requirements
for concrete and steel piles dependant on the presence and amount of sulfates and
chlorides and pH of the soil.
AS 3600 - 2001 Concrete structures specifies concrete strength, cover to
reinforcing, and curing requirements in high exposure locations.
AS 2870 - 1996 Residential slabs and footings Construction contains
requirements for vapour barriers and damp proof membranes. It also contains
information on detailing of damp proof courses and concrete vibration and curing
in known salt damp areas.
AS/NZS 2904 1995 Damp-proof courses and flashings specifies the appropriate
material characteristics.
AS 3700 - 2001 Masonry structures specifies salt attack resistance grade masonry
and mortar requirements, with exposure class masonry specified below the DPC in
areas subject to salt attack.
SA and NSW have variations to BCA Volume Two to further reduce the risk of
damage to buildings as a result of salinity.
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by Salinity are provided
in Appendix A1.6
Effects of Climate Change - Salinity
Past climate change

Salinity results from a rise in the water-table which brings naturally occurring salts in
the soil near or to the ground surface. These salts include sodium chloride,
magnesium and calcium sulfates and bicarbonates. The salts have been accumulated
in the ground over millions of years. Most salts were carried by winds from the
oceans deposited by rain. Large amounts of salt were left behind after the inland sea,
which covered large parts of Australia 100 million years ago, withdrew. The
weathering of rocks also causes salt to accumulate in the ground.
Human activities have increased soil salinity by disturbing the natural balance of the
water cycle in the landscape by increasing the quantity of water entering the ground.
Excessive salinity and high water-tables are mainly caused by land use change and in
particular by land clearing and replacement of deep-rooted vegetation which had
adapted to the Australian saline environment. In addition, salinity is increased by soil
water logging caused by interference with natural drainage patterns, leaking of pipes,
overwatering, soil erosion, acidification and structural decline.
52
There are five forms of salinity: irrigation, dry land, ground-water, river, and urban
salinity. Urban salinity is of concern to the construction industry, State and Territory
Building Regulators and the community. It threatens infrastructure such as buildings,
roads, pipelines and cables in rural and regional Australia. Saline soils cause
degradation of metal and concrete structures. Salts and water enter and move through
building materials such as brick, concrete, mortar and stone via capillary action.
Evaporation of water results in crystallisation of salts within and on the surface of
materials and consequently deteriorates their appearance and structural adequacy.
Shallow groundwater and salt lead to increased rising damp, failure of damp courses
and deterioration of building materials in foundations and walls.
The BCA currently deals in general terms with prevention of ground moisture
entering buildings. The BCA also references a number of Australian Standards which
provide building solutions for developments in high salinity areas. Some State and
Local authorities have additional provisions to address the issue to varying degrees.
In particular, SA and NSW have included variations in the BCA specifically to reduce
the risk of damage to buildings caused by salinity.
The Australian Government Natural Resource Management reports-

At least 2.5 million hectares, or 5 per cent of cultivated land, is currently affected
by dryland salinity. This could rise to 12 million hectares, or 22 per cent, if the
current rate continues.
Land and water degradation, excluding weeds and pests, is estimated to cost up to
$3.5 billion per year.
Dryland salinity has adversely affected our native plants and animals, with the
CSIRO estimating a 50 per cent reduction in bird species in agricultural areas.
Valuable infrastructure such as buildings and roads are being severely damaged in
many rural urban centres. For example, more than $6 million is spent every year
on building maintenance related to salinity in South Australia36

Towns and cities in SA, NSW, VIC and WA have been affected by urban salinity. It
has been projected that within 50 years, buildings, roads and pipelines in more than
200 towns will be affected by salt damage.37
Salinity is also likely to be affected by climate change. An increase in daily rainfall

intensity and in the number of dry days is likely to cause greater groundwater level
fluctuations with resultant increased salinity risk.
Risk Rating
Likelihood
Current situation
Salinity is on the increase as a result of human interventions such as land clearing and
earthworks exposing salty soils, over irrigation, industrial waste and the like.
36
National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality, Department of Agriculture Fisheries and
Forestry, 2001, p. 2.
37
C Creighton, Australian Dry Land Salinity Assessment: National Land and Water Resources Audit,
2000.
53

There is expected to be some increase in salinity due to climate change (over and
above the impacts of human interventions) as a result of increasing rainfall intensity
coupled with more dry days.
Consequences
Current situation
Salinity can cause degradation of metal, concrete and masonry structures unless there
are suitable protection mechanisms in place e.g. separating the material from the salty
soil and ground water transporting the salts.

The risk of damage to buildings due to salinity is therefore likely to increase with
climate change. In summary, the life safety consequence of salinity acting on new
buildings is insignificant.
Within BCA
Possible adaptation measures include-

The use of high impact resistant and less permeable damp proof membranes to
completely under lay slab-on-ground construction for all buildings with all laps
and penetrations sealed to completely separate the structure from the ground.
Adequate compaction and curing of concrete in slabs (surfaces and edges) to
increase durability and make it less permeable.
Appropriate material and location requirements for damp-proof courses.
External to BCA
Review current practices relating to vegetation management and irrigation.
Further investigation of areas where salinity poses a risk and making maps of these
areas publicly available would assist in identifying where measures to resist the
salinity risk need to be introduced. Alternatively, further work may identify that
because the risk is so widespread, all buildings should be required to be more resistant
to salinity attack. The ABCB is currently developing a Regulation Impact Statement
investigating possible BCA measures to reduce the adverse effects of salinity on
buildings.
54
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Average temperature rise
5.7 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE
Current BCA position
Both Volumes of the BCA use a climate zone map referencing an average January
maximum benchmark temperature of 30C (see Figure 3, Table 2). In addition climate
zones 3 and 4 reference an average July mean temperature of 14C and <14C
respectively to provide greater clarification. The 8 zones within Australia distinguish
climatic conditions in a range of jurisdictions and form the basis of energy efficiency
requirements.
except houses and non-habitable buildings) as follows:
Requirements based on climate zones for energy efficiency (building fabric,
external glazing, building sealing, air movement, air conditioning and
ventilation systems, hot water supply).
A performance requirement for a building or structure, to the degree
necessary, resist:
(xii) thermal effects

A performance requirement for the structural resistance of materials and forms
of construction must be determined using 5 percentile characteristic material
properties with appropriate allowance for-
(v) action effects arising from- restrained dimensional changes due to
temperature.
non-habitable buildings) as follows:
external glazing, building sealing, air movement, services).
Curing requirements for concrete laid in temperatures above 30C.
A performance requirement of buildings, to the degree necessary, a level of
thermal performance appropriate to the geographic location and solar radiation
used for heating and cooling.
necessary, resist:

(v) action effects arising from- restrained dimensional changes due to
temperature.
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by average temperatures

are provided in Appendix A1.7.
55
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Extreme temperature variation
Figure 3: Climatic zones in the BCA by location.
Table 2: Climate zones in the BCA by classification
56
Past Climate Change

Temperature variations over Australia during the past century have been consistent
with global trends in showing an increase in the mean temperature (average of
daytime maximum and overnight minimum temperatures) over most of the continent.
Overnight temperatures tend to have increased more than daytime temperatures
resulting in a decrease in the diurnal temperature range (the difference between the
maximum and minimum temperatures during the day). Consistent with this warming
trend is an increase in the frequency of warm days and nights, and a decrease in the
number of cool days and nights. 'The last two decades have been particularly warm,
with many of the warmest years on record having occurred during the 1980s and
1990s.'38
Since 1910 Australia's annual mean surface air temperature has increased by about
0.9C. From 1910 to 1950 annual mean Australian temperatures went down slightly,
driven largely by increasing rainfall and lower daytime temperatures across eastern
Australia. Since 1950, a warming trend of 0.16C per decade occurred. The spatial
variation in these trends has not been uniform across Australia, ranging between 0.05-
0.15C per decade. The largest changes occurred in parts of central Australia, with
small pockets of lesser warming in various locations. Maximum warming (exceeding
0.3C per decade) occurred in central-eastern Australia and minimum warming/slight
cooling over north-west Australia.1

The best estimate of annual warming over Australia by 2030 relative to the climate of
1990 is approximately 1.0C, with warmings of around 0.7-0.9C in coastal areas and
1-1.2C inland. If emissions are low, warming of between 1 C and 2.5 C is likely by
around 2070, with a best estimate of 1.8 C. Under a high emission scenario, the best
estimate of warming is 3.4 C, with a range of 2.2 C to 5 C.2
Risk rating
Likelihood
Temperature is a climatic variable that a building and all its materials are designed to
accommodate for, therefore the likelihood of temperature rises unduly effecting
buildings is not of concern. However, indirectly, temperature changes will affect the
likelihood of bushfires (see 2.12 bushfires), ground movement (see 2.13 ground
movement), salinity (see 2.6 salinity) and sea level rise (see 2.5 sea level rise/storm
surge). In particular there is a direct correlation between average temperatures and the
likelihood of termites (see 2.14).
Consequences
Current situation: Current average temperatures have little direct, adverse
consequences on buildings. Yet indirectly; average temperature will influence the
consequences of other events; such as damage caused by termites, salinity, sea level
rise and bushfires.
38
Long term climate variability in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology 2008
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/climch/clichv3.htm, viewed 8 April 2008.
57
Effects of climate change: The small increases in average temperatures, resulting from
climate change, will have no direct impact on the vulnerability of buildings. Current
BCA requirements and referenced standards are adequate in addressing the impacts of
average temperatures on durability, structural integrity, and material degradation.
However the increased likelihood of termites, as a result of higher average
temperatures, may require current termite regulations to be adapted to reflect localised
changes.
Beyond physical impacts on buildings, higher average temperatures will result in an

increased demand and use of air-conditioning systems. Consequently the energy
consumption of buildings will likely increase compromising the ability of the BCA to
achieve a level of sustainability; through provisions for energy efficiency. Average
temperature rise is unlikely to impact on the occurrence of heat stress of building
occupants as heat stress is more related to increase in extreme temperatures as
opposed to average temperatures.
Within BCA
Update the climate zone map, periodically, to better reflect the climatic
conditions at a regional level.
Provide a more transparent and consistent definition on the way in which

climate zones are classified and the role of average temperatures in this
classification.
Investigate the impact of an increase in average temperatures on termite

activity and insecticide breakdown.
Evaluate the benefits in using historical climate data to define climatic zones
as opposed to using climate forecasts.
Review the manner in which temperatures are used in referenced standards to
prescribe durability requirements.
58
5.8 EXTREME TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
Extreme temperature variations will invariably influence the average temperatures

used for energy efficiency requirements in all buildings (see 2.8 average
temperatures). Currently the BCA has no direct provisions for, or definition of,
extreme temperatures per se. however several referenced standards for structural
requirements, in the BCA, have material/system performance requirements at extreme
temperatures.
There is an obvious relationship between extreme temperature variations and average

temperatures, yet this remains unclear in the climate zones maps in both volumes of
the BCA. Current climate maps used for energy efficiency (see Figure 3 and Table 2)
reference an average January maximum temperature of 30C to define 8 climatic
zones. The influence of extreme temperatures relative to other climatic conditions
such as water vapour pressure, heating degree days, and July mean temperature in
defining these zones is ambiguous.
Structural requirements for a range of materials based on referenced
Australian Standards
A structural performance requirement for a building or structure, to the degree

necessary, resist:
(xii)thermal effects

(v) action effects arising from restrained dimensional changes due to
temperature
Curing requirements for concrete laid in temperatures above 30C.
necessary, resist:

(v) action effects arising from restrained dimensional changes due to
temperature
59
Specific BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by extreme

temperatures are provided in Appendix A1.8
Past Climate Change

Most of Australia has experienced a warming trend in maximum temperature during
recent decades. However, this trend is not uniform throughout the country; the
strongest warming trend being in inland Queensland, northeast South Australia and
northern Tasmania.38 This warming trend, since 1957, has been characterized by an
increase in hot days, an increase in hot nights, a decrease in cold days and a decrease
in cold nights as shown in Figure 4
Figure 4:Time series of the annual average number of hot days (>35C), cold days (<15C), hot nights
(>20C) and cold nights (<5C) in Australia. Dotted lines represent linear trends.1
Predicted Climate Change

It is very likely that the duration, intensity and frequency of (i) heatwaves will
increase, and (ii) cold periods and frosts will decline. With the average number of
days per year above 35C expected to increase across Australia.1
Projected changes in maximum and minimum temperatures indicate an increase in the

diurnal temperature range in the south and a decrease in the north. This is associated
with a projected strong increase in frequency of hot days and warm nights and a
moderate decrease in frost. These changes tend to be related to changes in cloud
cover, whereby reduced cloud cover leads to greater increases in maximum
temperature than mean temperature, and the opposite for increased cloud cover.9
2030 2070
Likely change Likely change
Daily events >35C +10 to +100% +20 to +600%
Daily events <0C -20 to -80% -50 to -100%
Table 3: Likely change in extreme temperature events, relative to 1990 levels9
60
Risk rating
Likelihood
Current situation: Heat waves are sporadic in nature and there is not a predictable
level of occurrence. Additionally the intensity of such events is, and will be,
influenced by local factors such as the level of development; creation an urban heat
island effect, the presence of large bodies of water and proximity of green spaces
serving to limit exposure.39
Effects of climate change: It is highly likely that as a result of climate change the
incidence and severity of heat waves will increase across Australia. Conversely a
decrease in the likelihood of extreme cold events is expected (see Table 3).
Consequences
Current situation: Heat waves, unlike other extreme events have a proportionately
small financial cost on buildings. However in Australia during the 20th century
heatwaves have caused more deaths than any other natural hazards (except disease).40
Despite heat waves posing a clear health and life safety risk, it remains unclear the
role buildings have played; relative to other factors such as the age and health of those
persons affected.
Effects of climate change: Increased extreme temperature events will have a greater
impact on buildings than expected increases in average temperatures (obviously there
is a relationship between the two). The major impact on buildings will be material
durability and intensified material degradation; particularly in older buildings. As a
result the primary impacts of extreme temperatures increase a buildings vulnerability
during wind, rain, and hail events.
Current BCA requirements are adequate in addressing primary impacts of extreme

temperatures; however secondary implications of extreme heat events; such as
increased prevalence of bush fires may be inadequately addressed in recognition of
climate change (see section 2.12 Bushfires)
The role buildings play in ensuring the health and safety of building occupants during
heat wave events remains unclear; relative to other factors such as the age, health, and
awareness of occupants. Clearly a buildings ability to maintain stable internal
temperatures will reduce some of the health risks associated with heat waves;
however the BCA does not currently address issues of thermal comfort directly.
Rather, energy efficiency requirements effecting material selection, passive solar
design and minimum levels of insulation serve to regulate a buildings internal
temperature and therefore reduce risks during heatwaves. Nevertheless, the life safety
39
B Preston et al., Systems approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation in Metropolises:
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability in the Sydney City Councils Group, CSIRO and Sydney City
Councils Group, 2008.
40
EMA, Heatwaves, Attorney Generals Department, Emergency Management Australia, 2006,
http://www.ema.gov.au/ema/emaSchools.nsf/AllDocs/RWPF1ECE7EF7A67EE22CA256C5D0006777
9?OpenDocument, viewed 27 March 2008.
61
consequence of extreme temperature events on building occupants can be

catastrophic.
Beyond the health risks associates with heat waves, extreme temperature events may
compromise the ability of buildings to ascertain prescribed levels of energy
efficiency. During extreme temperatures buildings are far more likely to use air
conditioning resulting in increased energy consumption, placing greater pressure on
electricity infrastructure and compromising the ability of buildings to achieve levels
of sustainability.
Within BCA
Update climate zones periodically to better reflect, and clarify, the climatic
Include material and construction requirements for regions experiencing
regular extreme hot spells.
Investigate the impact of extreme temperature variations on termite activity

and insecticide breakdown.
Assess the benefits in providing temperature provisions for extreme events (in
addition to averages) similar to that of wind and rain. For example building
requirements if x amount of days per year reach over 35C.
Review referenced standards; ensuring material testing procedures exceed
possible extreme temperatures forecast under climate change.
62
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Humidity
5.9 HUMIDITY
Although the impacts of humidity are not directly covered in the BCA, humidity is
used as a tool for defining 8 climate zones that are used for energy efficiency
provisions in both volumes of the BCA (see Table 2).
Climatic zones for the purpose of energy efficiency use 2.1kPa average 3pm January
water vapour pressure as a reference point. Whilst sub floor ventilation requirements
also refer to 3 climatic zones across Australia based on relative humidity at 9am (see
Figure 6).
except houses and non-habitable buildings). It contains:
Sub floor ventilation and clearance requirements based on three climatic
zones.
non-habitable buildings). It contains:
Sub floor ventilation and clearance requirements based on three climatic zones
(see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Sub floor ventilation requirements
63
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Humidity
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by humidity are

Past Climate Change

There is no data currently available that indicates conclusive humidity trends in recent
decades.
Climate Change projections

Small decreases in relative humidity are projected over most of Australia. The best
estimate being a 1% decline by 2030, with spatial variation. The largest humidity
decreases will occur in the South and West and little change along the coast and
Tasmania.1
2030 2070
Likely change Likely change
Annual and seasonal average
-2% to +0.5% -9% to 0%
relative seasonal humidity
Table 4: Percentage changes in humidity in 2030 and 2070, relative to 1990 levels.
Risk rating
Likelihood
The weight of current research indicates that it is highly likely that humidity will
marginally decrease in Australia. Humidity forecasts even in the unlikely higher
ranges still pose no direct risk to buildings.
This being said the combination of a hotter drier climate will influence the likelihood
of bushfires (see 2.12 Bushfires) termite activity and affect material durability (see
2.14 Durability)
Consequences
Current situation: There is no research available that indicates undesirable
consequences from humidity on buildings in Australia. The current BCA and
referenced standards adequately address the effects of humidity.
Effects of climate change: The impact and vulnerability of buildings would not
increase as a result of predicted humidity reductions in Australia. However, indirectly
humidity may compound the consequences of termites, bushfires, ground movement
and material durability. The life safety consequence of changes to humidity as a
result of climate change acting of new buildings is therefore insignificant.

Current BCA adequately addresses any predicted changes to humidity in
Australia.

Investigate the impact of humidity on termite activity and consequences.
64
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Humidity
Clarify/assess the role of humidity in relation to other variables in defining

climatic zones in the BCA.
65
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Snow
5.10 SNOW
except houses and small non-habitable buildings). The requirements are applicable
only to alpine and sub alpine regions where snow loads are significant. The
requirements are based on specified design snow depths affecting structural design.
The design snow depths vary with the regions. Parts of Australia affected by snow are
divided into two regions alpine and sub alpine depending on altitude. The design
snow depth also varies with the Importance level of the building. BCA has adopted
four Importance level classifications and an annual probability of exceedance, as
shown in Table 5.
Importance Building Types Annual probability of

Level exceedance for snow
1 Buildings or structures presenting a low degree of 1:100
hazard to life and other property in the case of
failure.
2 Buildings or structures not included in Importance 1:150
Levels 1, 3 and 4.
3 Buildings or structures that are designed to 1:200
contain a large number of people.
4 Buildings or structures that are essential to post- 1:250
disaster recovery or associated with hazardous
facilities.
Table 5: Design snow depth in the BCA
non-habitable buildings). P2.1 specifies that snow action must be considered to ensure
the building or structure remains stable and does not collapse.
Part 3.7.5 contains requirements for external doors, ramps and trafficable structures to
ensure people are able to egress snow affected buildings in safety.
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by snow are provided in
Appendix A1.10
Past climate change

A decline in snow cover has been observed in recent decades.1

Snow cover, average season lengths and peak snow depths are projected to decrease
in Australian alpine regions, and there is a tendency for the time of maximum snow
depth to occur earlier in the season. 1
Risk Rating
66
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Snow
Likelihood
The likelihood of increased snow events and associated increased risks to buildings
due to climate change is low.
Consequence
There have been recent reports of collapses of roofs in Europe due to snow. Parts of
the reasons for these failures are probably the increase in snow density as snow
becomes wetter as the consequence of warmer climate. In Australia, designs have
always based on wet snow with density of 0.40 compared with 0.25-0.30 specified in
European codes. It is considered therefore that it is not likely that the European
experience will be repeated in Australia.
The consequence of increased snow events and associated increased risks to buildings
as a result of climate change is low. Similarly, the life safety consequence of
increased snow events impacting on new buildings is insignificant.
No additional adaptation measures are proposed. If there is a significant long term

reduction in snow events and snow loads on buildings, there would be a case for
reducing current structural requirements.
Nil.
67
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Hail
5.11 HAIL
Neither Volumes of the BCA contain provision for hail.
Past climate change

There are no comprehensive studies of changes in hail occurrence or intensity in
Australia. Schuster et al. (2005) reported a decline of about 30% in the number of
hail storms affecting Sydney in 1989 - 2002 compared with 1953 - 1988. However,
the most severe hail storm affecting Sydney occurred in 1999, causing Australia's
largest insurance loss ($1.7 billion) due to a natural disaster.25

Projections of changes in hail occurrences for 2030 and 2070 indicate an increase in
hail-days per year along the south eastern coast line (1 to 2 hail-days for 2030, 4 to 6
hail-days for 2070) and a decrease in hail-days per year for the south coast of
Australia (-1 to -2 hail-days).1
Risk rating
Likelihood
Current situation: Among all Australian capital cities, large hail storms are most
likely to occur in Sydney. McMaster (2001) found that 32% of thunderstorms
recorded in NSW were severe hail storms (hail diameters > 2 cm) which occurred
between September and March. Data collected by Risk Frontiers indicate the majority
of hail occurrences are located along the South Eastern coastline region of Australia
between Sydney and Brisbane particularly for larger hail stone sizes (greater that 6
cm). Victoria has hail in most areas of the state mostly with smaller stone sizes (2-4
cm). Larger size hail (4-6 cm) tends to occur in areas bordering NSW. For WA, hail
storms occur mainly in the South West areas but 2 out of 5 largest hail storms (10-14
cm) occurred in WA. In terms of size distribution, for about 2100 recorded events of
sizes 0.5- 14 cm, the majority of hail sizes are 2-4 cm (44%) followed by 4-6 cm
(37%) and 6-14 (10%).41
Effects of climate change: Major population centres that are likely to have an increase
in hail storms are those along the south eastern coastline (e.g. Sydney, Brisbane) and a
decrease in hail storms those along the southern coastline (e.g. Melbourne, Adelaide,
Perth). Effects of climate change on hail sizes are not known.
Consequences
Current situation: Hail losses account for 34% of total economic loss due to natural
disasters for the period 1967-2003 with NSW suffered the highest insurance loss. The
Sydney hail storm of 1999 is the largest contributor to the loss estimated at $1.7
billion (ICA2007)25. Building related losses consisted of structural damage and water
damage to properties in about equal proportion. Major components of structural
41
Roy Leigh - Private Communication
68
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Hail
damage are the cracking of tiles, indentation of metal roofs and damage to glass.
There was only one reported collapse of a roof due to hail and no report of hail related
fatalities. The damage is a function of the hail size (impact damage) and the intensity
(number of large hailstones falling per unit area) of the hail storm. Collection of hail
could also cause an increase in roof loading due to blocked drainage that may lead to
structural failure as well as property damage due to water penetration. For metal
roofs, hail stones of sizes larger than 2.5 cm tend to cause permanent indentation.
Tiled roofs can resist hail impact without cracking for hail sizes less than 4 cm,
however they tend to crack if hail stones are larger than 4 cm, which then causes
water penetration problems. The 4 cm limit is subject to some variation depending on
the type, thickness and age of the tile.
Effects of climate change: For regions with increased likelihood of hail such as
Sydney, there could be more structural and property damage. . In summary, the life
safety consequence of hail acting on new buildings is minor.
Within BCA
Any adaptation measure must be specific to regions with increased likelihood of hail.
The BCA contains no provision for hail because there has been little threat to life
safety. The property damage has been catered for by insurance. The use of sheet
roofing instead of tile roofing in hail affected areas may reduce the amount of
property damage by water penetration. This is already happening in the market as
shown by the statistics of metal and tile roofing in hail affected areas, however, the
reason is more likely to result from aesthetics, fashion or price, rather than potential
hail damage.
External to BCA
Market forces and insurance are likely to promote changes to materials and forms of
construction to minimise hail damage.
More research is needed to establish cost effective methods to mitigate hail damage
which could be more serious for other sectors of the economy such as agriculture.
There is also the need to obtain more details of the impact of climate change on
frequency, size and spatial distribution of hail.
69
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Bushfire
5.12 BUSHFIRE
The BCA 2010 defines six categories of Bushfire Attack Level (BAL): BAL-LOW,
BAL-12.5, BAL-19, BAL-29, BAL-40, and BAL-FZ. Construction measures to
reduce bushfire risk are minimal for sites in the BAL-LOW category while the
stringency of measures increases as the bushfire risk increases,
The BCA does not provide solutions for the determination of bushfire attack
categories but refers to AS3959-2009 for the assessment methodology. The
designated bushfire prone area (BPA) is used to define area of application of the
BCA requirements. The BPAs are defined by the States and Territories and are
usually identified in local government planning instruments. There are variations in
the method and timing of the designation processes in various jurisdictions.
except houses and small non-habitable buildings). It contains only generic
performance requirements and areas of application (BPA). The provisions are
applicable only to Class 2 or 3 buildings (residential buildings excluding single
dwellings and small boarding houses).
BCA Volume Two provides requirements for buildings of Class 1 (single dwellings
and small boarding houses). It contains:
Details of construction requirements for the various BAL categories
Details of State & Territory variations
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by the bushfire issues are
summarized in Appendix A1.12
The risk of bushfire attack on a specific site is dependent on a number of site factors
such as the vegetation type, distance to bush land and the slope to the site as well as a
number of climate related factors such as rainfall, humidity, extreme temperature and
wind intensity. A combination of these climate factors determines the fire weather
risk.
CSIRO has conducted two studies on climate change impacts on bushfire weather in
south-east Australia (Hennessy et al7 , Lucas et al 42).The metric used to measure the
bush fire danger caused by the weather is FFDI (Forest Fire Danger Index). The daily
fire danger rating is related to FFDI as shown in Table 6.
42
C Lucas et al, Bushfire weather in South East Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate
Change Impacts, Climate Institute of Australia, 2007, p 3.
70
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Bushfire
FFDI >25 >50 >75 >100

Daily fire Very high Extreme Very extreme catastrophic
danger
Table 6: Relation between FFDI and daily fire danger rating 42
The percentage changes in the number of days with very high and extreme fire
weather in 2020 and 2050, relative to 1990 is shown in Table 7.
IPPC global 2020 2050

warming Low scenario High scenario Low scenario High scenario
0
estimate 0.4 C 10C 0
0.7 C 2.90C
Very high +2 - 13% +10 - 30% +5 - 23% +20 - 100%
Extreme +5 - 25% +15 - 65% +10 - 50% +100 - 300%
Table 7: Percentage changes in the number of days with very high and extreme fire weather - 2020
and 2050, relative to 1990.42
Very extreme days tend to occur once every 2 - 11 years at most sites. 2020 low
scenarios show little change in frequency while 2020 high scenarios indicate a
doubling in frequency at many sites. 2050 low scenarios are similar to 2020 high
scenarios while 2050 high scenarios indicate a four to five fold increase in frequency
at many sites.
Catastrophic days have occurred in 12 of 26 sites since 1973. 2020 low scenarios
show little change in frequency while 2020 high scenarios show catastrophic days
occurring at 20 sites, 10 of which have annual probability of occurrence of 1:16 or
less. 2050 low scenarios are similar to 2020 high scenarios while 2050 high scenarios
show catastrophic days occurring at 22 sites, 19 of which have annual probability of
occurrence of 1:8 or less and 7 sites 1:3 or less.
The model results suggest that the fire seasons will start earlier and end slightly later,
while generally being more intense throughout their length.
Risk rating
Likelihood
Bushfires are inevitable in Australia. Bushfires are most common over the tropical
savannas of the north. This report only examines bushfires in the southeastern regions
of Australia which are susceptible to large bushfires that threaten life and properties.
Current situation: Research on current exposure to bushfire indicates 5%-10% of

addresses are exposed to bushfire risk in Australia with the probability of 10- 20% in
50 years. An ABCB survey of building activity in bushfire prone areas is presented in
Table 8 for the period 2001/2 - 2005/6 averaging 11,000 houses per year i.e. about
10% of all new houses.
Effects of climate change: The effects of climate change are likely to result in an
increased number of hot days in summer and a decrease in rainfall and humidity
which would increase the likelihood of bushfires both in frequency and intensity.
There is an increase in fire-weather occurrences at most sites in 2020-2050. The
frequencies of days with very high and extreme fire danger are likely to increase 4
71
25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050.42 Most councils expect the rate of building in
BPAs to increase (39%) or stay the same (46%).
State / Territory Number per year % in sampled % in all councils

councils
ACT 10 1 1
NSW 4483 74 20
NT 0 0 0
QLD 2118 70 8
SA 1400 35 16
TAS 0 0 0
VIC 2870 25 9
WA 374 4 2
Total 11,254 31 10
Table 8: Number of new buildings constructed in BPA - annual average
Consequence
Current situation: In Australia on average 118 houses have been burnt per year within
the last 50 years. Figure 7 shows the distribution of the losses. The majority of losses
concentrated on the south eastern corner of Australia43. These losses do not include
the disastrous February 2009 bushfires in Victoria which resulted in 173 deaths, over
500 injuries, over 2000 houses destroyed, and which resulted in insurance costs of
around $1.5 billion.
The consequences of bushfires include economic, social and environmental losses. Of

these, economic loss of major bushfires has been estimated at $2.5 billion for the
period 1967-1999 or an average annual cost of $77 million including costs unrelated
to buildings such as loss of crops and live stock.44 From 1850 - 2001, 696 lives has
been loss in bushfires but the number has been in decline over the past 20 years. Most
of fatalities are caused by misjudgement rather than inadequacies of buildings45. The
other cost that has not been accounted for is the cost of fire fighting. Environmental
losses include loss of habitat, changes to biodiversity, erosion, effects on water quality
and carbon emission with possible benefits in the regeneration of bush land.
Bushfires are a major economic, social and environmental hazard in Australia.

Between 1967 and 1999 bushfires cost the Australian economy around $2.5 billion.
From 1960 to 2001, there were 224 fire-related deaths and 4,505 injuries in
Australia.46
Effects of climate change: Figure 8 shows the non-linear relationship between the fire
weather (FFDI) and percentage of total loss.43 Thus an increase in FFDI of say 10% in
43
Blanchi R et al, Lessons learnt from post bushfire surveys at the urban interface in Australia,-
Bushfire CRC, 2007.
44
BTE, 2001 found in M Middlemann, Natural Hazards in Australia, Identifying Risk Analysis
requirements, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, 2007 p.103.
45
Syneca Consulting, Consultation Regulation Impact Statement on changes to AS 3959 Construction
of buildings in bushfire prone areas, 2007.
46
Climate Institute, Bushfire fact sheet, The Climate Institute, 2007,
http://www.changeclimatechange.org.au/ChangeCC/PDFs/How%20Bushfires%20Affect%20Your%20
Community.pdf, viewed 6 April 2008.
72
the upper region could cause up to 50% increase in loss of houses. There will be
further complication in assessing the loss due to climate change since there will be
more houses built in bushfire prone areas in the future.
In summary, the life safety consequence of bushfires acting on new buildings could be
catastrophic, even though the latest bushfire standards would provide a higher level of
safety for buildings and building occupants than previous standards. Nevertheless,
even the latest standards would be unlikely to prevent injury or loss of life in extreme
bushfire events, such as the disastrous February 2009 Victorian bushfires.
Within BCA
Changes to BCA and referenced standards

Development of a standard on personal bushfire shelters (bushfire bunkers) as
a means of last resort
External to BCA
Measures used to manage bushfires are a mix of passive and active measures
including:
Bushfire management: fuel reduction, fire breaks, fire fighting crews and
equipment
Land use planning and development control
Building design
Community readiness and actions that owners can take
It can be seen from the above that building regulation may have some effect on
building design and that it can only be effective if other measures are also taken.
The interaction between building and planning is seen as a key factor for the
successful implementation of measures to manage the bushfire issue.
Quantify the impacts of climate change on bushfire building losses (Methodology for
carrying this assessment exists but has not been used for this purpose).
73
4
43
195
519
1266
4894
524
1365
Figure 6: Distribution of losses of houses due to bushfire
140
120
100
80
FFDI
60
40
20
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of total losses (running average)
Figure 7: Relationship between FFDI and percentage of total losses
74
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Ground movement
5.13 GROUND MOVEMENT
For the purpose of this section ground movement refers to changes in soil
characteristics, subsidence and other below ground fluctuations (excluding salinity
covered in section 2.6).
Both volumes of the BCA prescribe requirements for structures and below ground
works to accommodate for ground movement. Provisions for subsoil drainage,
footings and slabs are determined on a site by site basis.
A structural performance requirement for a building or structure, to the degree
necessary, resist:
(ix) earth pressure action; and
(x) differential movement; and
(xi) time dependant effects (including creep and shrinkage); and
(xiii) Ground movement caused by-
(a) swelling, shrinkage or freezing of the subsoil; and
(b) landslip or subsidence
(v) Action effects arising from the differential settlement of
foundations, and from restrained dimensional changes due to
temperature, moisture, shrinkage, creep and similar effects.
7 different site classifications for a range of soil conditions (see Table 9). The
site classification is then used for foundations, footings, slabs and
reinforcement requirements.
A performance requirement for the building or structure, to the degree
necessary, resist:
(ix) earth pressure action; and

(x) differential movement; and
(xi) time dependant effects (including creep and shrinkage); and
(xiii) Ground movement caused by-
(a) swelling, shrinkage or freezing of the subsoil; and
(b) landslip or subsidence
(v) Action effects arising from the differential settlement of
foundations, and from restrained dimensional changes due to
temperature, moisture, shrinkage, creep and similar effects.
75
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA - Ground movement
BCA Table 3.2.4.1 GENERAL DEFINITION OF SITE CLASSES

Class Foundation
A Most sand and rock sites with little or no ground movement from moisture changes
S Slightly reactive clay sites with only slight ground movement from moisture changes
M Moderately reactive clay or silt sites which can experience moderate ground movement from
moisture changes
H Highly reactive clay sites which can experience high ground movement from moisture changes
E Extremely reactive clay sites which can experience extreme ground movement from moisture
changes
A to P Filled sites see AS 2870
P Sites which include soft soils, such as soft clay or silt or loose sands; landslip; mine
subsidence; collapsing soils; soils subject to erosion; reactive sites subject to abnormal
moisture conditions or sites which cannot be classified otherwise
Note: For classes M, H and E further division based on the depth of the expected movement is required.
For deep-seated movements, characteristic of dry climates and corresponding to a design depth of
suction change Hs, equal to or greater than 3 m, the classification shall be M-D, H-D or E-D as
appropriate. For example, H-D represents a highly reactive site with deep moisture changes, and H
represents a highly reactive site with shallow moisture changes.
Table 9: Site classification in the BCA
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by ground movement are
Past Climate Change

There is no data available for past changes in ground movement resulting directly
from climate change. Recorded ground movements are attributed to several factors;
including climate, land clearing, ground water extraction and other human induced
changes.
What is clear is a drying of soils resulting from Australia's annual mean surface air
temperature increasing by about 0.9C since 19101, augmented levels of evaporation,
evapo-transpiration and fluctuating levels of rainfall. The consequences of these drier
soils has had much greater implications for sectors such as agriculture, and the effects
of nominal drying of soils has seen no adverse effects on buildings (see 2.4 Drought
for more information).

Drier conditions would lead to-
Increased ground movement and changes in ground water.
Increased cracking of drier soils and increased ground movement impacting on
foundations and pipe work.9
Accelerated degradation of materials and structural integrity of water supply,
sewer and stormwater pipelines.
76
Risk rating
Likelihood
Current situation: Building footing failures due to soil movement caused by drought
are relatively expensive to rectify, particularly if underpinning is required and
walls/floors need repair. For example, the Queensland Building Services Authority
reports that in 2006/07 there were 763 approved subsidence claims totalling $7.47M
covered by its insurance fund.33 Note that claims can only be successful if the house is
less than 6.5 years old (from contract signing), so older homes are not included in the
above data.
Effects of climate change: Changes to soil and site stability across Australia is
unknown. Yet with increased temperatures, possible increases in evaporation and
reduced rainfall the weight of evidence suggests localised soil changes in Australia
will occur. This will increase the likelihood of ground movement and subsequent
damage to masonry, architraves, footings, slabs and underground pipes.
The incidence of vegetation changes and tree dieback as a possible effect of climate
change will also impact on ground movement. Tree dieback would initially rehydrate
soils, but the long term climate change impact is likely to reduce moisture content in
soils. These swings in soil moisture content could exacerbate ground movement.
Consequences
Current situation: Ground movement as a result of a number of influences, results in
damage to underground pipes, footings, slabs, masonry, architraves and other building
elements. Current BCA provisions for ground movement adequately address this risk
directly and through referenced standards. Specifically the requirements of site by site
evaluation, in the current BCA, and local knowledge (local government and industry)
serve to reduce adverse risks to buildings posed by ground movement.
Effects of climate change: Consequences resulting from an increased likelihood in

ground movement do not place the safety of building occupants at risk. Rather an
increase in aesthetic and structural damage would be expected; with older buildings
being predominantly effected.
It is difficult to identify the incidence of increased ground movement attributed to

climate change and the anticipated ground movement under regular climate
variability. Similarly ground movement can be heavily influenced by surrounding
trees which will be affected by climate change, but again quantifying predictions for
ground movements is difficult. In summary, the life safety consequence of ground
movement acting on new buildings is insignificant.
Within BCA
Consider making footings and slabs stiffer/stronger to cope with increased

ground movement.
External to BCA
77
Changes to relevant Australian Standards.
Investigate the merit in prescribing an acceptable level of damage resulting

from ground movement over the design life of a building.
Investigate the ability of current footing designs to cope with increases in
ground movement due to climate change. Footings are difficult and expensive
to upgrade/repair during the life of a building. Therefore, it is important to
ensure the footing system is suitable for the design life of the building.
Evaluate the impact of changes in climate to current soil type classification;
and the impact on soil swell and shrinkage.
Investigate the relationship between climate variables and ground movement
and the subsequent impact on footings and foundations.
Review Australian Standard AS 2870 Residential slabs and footings in light of
projected increases in droughts and subsequent variations in soil moisture
content. This could result in the need for stiffer/stronger footings to resist
greater soil movements to maintain current levels of structural safety and
serviceability. If changes are made to AS 2870, the footings provisions of
BCA Vol Two will need to be amended accordingly.
78
Climate change scenarios and impacts on buildings/ BCA Durability
5.14 DURABILITY
except houses and small non-habitable buildings) It contains:
Provisions for termite management B1.4(i)
References to AS4100, AS3600, AS1720, AS3700 - all contain durability
clauses.
small non-habitable buildings). It contains:
Part 3.1.3 Termite risk management with S & T variations
Clause 3.3.3.2 Table 3.3.3.1 Corrosion protection for wall ties
Clause 3.4.2.2 General corrosion protection
Clause 3.4.4.4 - Table 3.4.4.2 Protective coating for steelwork
Clause 3.5.1.3 Table 3.5.1.1 Acceptable corrosion protection for sheet
roofing
Particular BCA provisions and referenced standards affected by durability are

summarized in Appendix A1.14
In addition, the ABCB has issued a Guideline Document titled Durability in

Buildings. The document addresses durability in generic terms and is used to develop
durability solutions relevant to specific materials in accordance with the principles
and criteria contained in the Guideline.
Durability is affected by a number of climate change issues such as rainfall, salinity,

humidity, average temperature rise, extreme temperature and solar radiation. Relevant
issues are dependent on the particular material used in the construction.
Relative Humidity
generally decrease in most areas ranging -3% to 0% (2030) and -9% to 0%

(2070)
The effects of decrease in humidity are decreases in mould-related and condensation

related durability problems.
Solar radiation
generally decrease in summer/autumn ranging -5% to 0% (2030) and -15% to

0% (2070)
generally increase in winter/spring ranging 0% to +5% (2030) and 0% to
+15% (2070)
79
The effects of increase in solar radiation are greater rates of degradation of plastics
and surface coatings.
Average Rainfall
For 2030, the annual average change is about -10% to +5% in northern areas
and -10% to 0% in southern areas.
For 2050, under the low emission scenario, the range of annual change is -15%
to +7.5% in central, eastern and northern areas (-20% to +10% for high
emission scenario). For southern areas, the change is from -15% to 0% for low
emission scenario (-20% to 0% for high emission scenario)
For 2070, under the low emission scenario, the range of annual change is -20%
to +10% in central, eastern and northern areas (-30% to +20% for high
emission scenario). For southern areas, the change is from -20% to 0% for low
emission scenario (-30% to +5% for high emission scenario)
The effects of more rain are the acceleration of metal corrosion rates and general
weathering of other materials.
The effects of less rain on the soil may lead to the deterioration of the foundation and
the drying of mortar may affect the masonry wall durability
Temperature
Average temperature: For 2030, the best estimate of annual warming relative
to 1990 is approximately 1oC. By 2050, the annual warming ranges from
0.8oC to 1.8oC (low emission scenario) and from 1.5oC to 2.8oC (high
emission scenario). By 2070, the annual warming ranges from 1.0oC to 2.5oC
(low emission scenario) and from 2.2oC to 5.0oC (high emission scenario).
Extreme temperature: Associated with the increase in average temperature is a
projected strong increase in frequency of hot days. The current predictions are
available only for specific sites.
The effects of increases in average temperature and extreme temperature are the
acceleration of the deterioration rates on elements of the building envelope such as
roofing, cladding and windows. Sealant and finishes are also affected.
Risk rating
Atmospheric Corrosion
Likelihood
Current Situation: Atmospheric corrosion in Australia depends on two main factors:
(a) 'Time-of-wetness' which correlates strongly with number of rain days per year.
(b) Airborne salinity which is a function of the distance to the coast line.
It is possible to estimate the rate of corrosion for any given site from the above factors
and some other additional factors such as the degree of coastal exposure, airborne
pollution, local shelter and site classification.
80
Effects of Climate Change: Projections for climate change suggest that there will be
an increase in dry days but also an increase in number of hot days and increase in
solar radiation. The net effect on atmospheric corrosion rate has not been quantified.
Consequence
Current Situation: Atmospheric corrosion affects not only metal components of
buildings such as metal roofs, wall claddings, rain water goods etc. but also metal
components of timber roof trusses (nail plates), metal components of masonry
structures (such as lintels, metal brick ties etc).
Effects of Climate Change: It is not clear what the effects of climate change on
atmospheric corrosion will be.
Termite hazard
Likelihood
Current Situation: Termite hazard is correlated to annual average temperature see
Table 10.
Annual average temperature Probability of termite hazard

< 16oC < 0.2
Between 16oC and 24oC 0.2 to 0.5
> 24oC > 0.8
Table 10: Probability of termite hazard relative to temperature
Termite hazard maps are available based on either agro-ecological consideration

(Figure 8) or annual average temperature (Figure 9).
Zone 4
D arwin Zone 3
Zone 2
Zone 1
Negligible
C airns
Broome
Townsville
Port Hed land
Mount Isa
Rockhampton
Alice Springs
Charleville
Brisbane
Geraldton
N arrabri
Kalgoorlie
Dubbo
Perth
Mildura Newcastle
Adelaide Albury Sydney
Albany C anberra
Mount G ambier Bega
Melbourne
Hobart
Figure 8: Termite hazard map based on agro-ecological consideration
81
Figure 9: Termite hazard map based on average temperature
Effects of Climate Change: Projections for climate change suggest that there will be
an increase in the average annual temperature. This will increase not only the
probability of increased termite activity and increased termite attack in buildings, but
also the likelihood of greater numbers of the more aggressive termite species.
Consequence
Current Situation: There are a number of options in the management of termites. For
example, if all termite hazard related parameters are medium, the probability of
termite attack for a fifty year period could be evaluated for different management
strategies: >80% for no barrier, >30% for physical barrier, 18% for non-repellent
(lethal) barrier and 35% for repellent barrier (non-lethal).
Research undertaken by Archicentre Limited, and based on over 80,000 pre-purchase

building inspections reports, has identified that around 9% of houses in Australia are
damaged by termites over a 5 year cycle, with an average rectification cost of around
$7000. This results in an estimated annual cost per annum of $910 million.47
Effects of Climate Change: Climate change is likely to increase termite activity

resulting in increased damage to buildings. However, in summary, the life safety
consequence of reduced durability of buildings and building elements is insignificant.
47
Archicentre, An analysis of termite damage in Sydney and Melbourne, Archicentre Limited,
Hawthorn, 2006, p.4.
82
Nil at this stage.
Investigate whether improved termite management systems for buildings can be

justified to take account of increased termite activity and the increased likelihood of
more damaging termite species.
83
Risk Matrix
6. RISK MATRIX
This chapter deals with the risk associated with each building issue (e.g. site stability,
wall, roof etc) when subjected to the various climate impacts. The risk is also
determined by the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences of that
event. The consequences of the event are considered in regard to the BCA objectives
ie primarily public health and safety, rather than property protection alone. The
chapter also identifies the extent of the risk i.e. whether the risks apply nationally,
regionally or to isolated pockets. The risk ratings identified in Table 15 are therefore
based on consequence framed in light of public safety. Therefore, the level of risk
identified may differ if the consequence was framed in regard to property protection.
A description of regional impact, likelihood and consequence is also provided below.
Regional Impact:
National Occurring in at least 6/8 states
Regional Region specific, less than national
Isolated Isolated cases without any distinct trend
Table 11: Assessment of regional impacts of climate change
Likelihood:
Rating Recurrent risks Single events
Almost certain Could occur several times per More likely than not (probability
(AC) year greater than 50%)
Likely (L) May arise about once per year As likely as not (50/50 chance)
Possible (P) May arise once in ten years Less likely than not but still
appreciable (probability less than
50% but still quite high)
Unlikely (U) May arise once in ten years to Unlikely but not negligible
25 years (probability low but greater than
zero)
Rare (R) Unlikely during the next 25 Negligible (probability very small,
years close to zero)
Table 12: Assessment of the likelihood of climate change impacts29
Consequence:
Rating
Insignificant (I) Appearance of a threat but no actual harm
Minor (Min) Serious near miss or minor injuries
Moderate (Mod) Small number of injuries
Major (Maj) Isolated serious injuries or loss of life
Catastrophic (Cat) Loss of life/ large number of injuries
Table 13: Evaluating the consequences of climate change impacts29
84
Risk Rating:
Likelihood Consequences
Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme
certain
Likely Low Medium High High Extreme
Possibly Low Medium Medium High High
Unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium
Rare Low Low Low Low Medium
Table 14: Risk rating of climate change impacts29
85
Building Issue Risk Scenario Climate Variable Climate impact Regional L* C* RR*
Impact
Site stability Increased ground movement Temperature Flood National P I Low
Rain Salinity
Wind Sea level rise
Increased site erosion and risk of landslip Ground movement National P Min Medium
Drought
Rainfall intensity
Extreme temperature
Site drainage Inability of drainage to cope with water Rain Flood Regional P I Low
volume. Sea level rise
Storm water flowing back into the building Rainfall intensity Regional P I Low
Structure Inability of structures to cope with high Wind Bushfire Regional U Mod Medium
wind loads Temperature Cyclones/wind
Inability of structures to cope with storm Rain impact Regional R Cat Medium
surge Floods
Structural damage from water penetration Sea level rise Regional U I Low
Drought
Increased termite damage to structural Regional P I Low
Rainfall intensity
elements
Structural damage as a result of bushfire Extreme temperature Regional P Maj High
Foundations and Undermining and/or structural failure of Temperature Flood National R I Low
Footings footings Humidity Ground movement
Increased foundation movement Rain Salinity
Damage caused by salinity and acid Drought
sulphate soils Extreme temperature
Increased termite activity and damage Rain intensity Regional P I Low
Roof Damage to structural elements resulting Rain Cyclones/wind Regional U Mod Medium
from wind pressure Wind impact
Inadequate insulation of roof for energy Humidity Extreme National U I Low
efficiency Temperature temperatures
Rain intensity
86
Wall Damage including cracking and material Extreme temperatures Ground movement National U I Low
degradation Rain salinity
Damage resulting from water penetration Humidity Flood Regional U I Low
Sea level rise
Inadequate insulation of walls for energy Extreme temperature National U I Low
efficiency Rain intensity
Floor Inadequate insulation of floors for energy Extreme temperature Ground movement National U I Low
efficiency Humidity Extreme temperature
Damage and movement including cracking Regional U I Low
and material degradation
Glazing Glazing being inadequate for efficiency Temperature Extreme Regional R I Low
requirements temperature
Average
temperatures
Durability Increased material degradation resulting in Temperature Cyclone National U I Low
structural damage. Humidity Drought
Reduced lifespan of building materials Wind Extreme temperature National P I Low
Increased termite damage Rain Rain intensity Regional P I Low
Roof cladding Damage including cracking and material Temperature Bushfires National U I Low
degradation Wind Cyclones
Roofing material becoming airborne under Rain Extreme temperature National R Maj Low
high wind pressure Hail Rain intensity
Damage as a result of bushfires Regional P Mod Medium
Damage due to overflowing gutters

Wall cladding Damage including cracking and material Temperature Cyclones National P I Low
degradation Wind Bushfires
Cladding material becoming airborne under Humidity Salinity National R Mod Low
high wind pressure Extreme temperature
Damage as a result of bushfire Regional P Mod Medium
Health and Increased heat waves affecting building Temperature Flood National L Maj High
Amenity occupants Humidity Sea level rise
87
Surface water entering the building Regional R Mod Low
Dampness leading to microbiological

growth leading to increased allergies and
respiratory problems
Water penetration Increased liquid pressure, from the ground, Rain Salinity Regional P I Low
damaging materials Sea level rise
Flood
Water penetration from surface water Rain intensity Regional U I Low
Energy use Increased use of air conditioners Temperature Drought National AC I Medium
Humidity Extreme
temperature
Average
temperatures
Water use Lack of available water for building use; Temperature Drought Regional L I Low
less reliable infrastructure leading to Rain Bushfire
more on-site water harvesting Extreme temperature
Lack of water to fulfil fire fighting function Average Regional R Maj Low
temperatures
Rain intensity
Air quality None
Access Movement and cracking in access paths Temperature Drought National P Min Medium
and steps Rain Salinity
Ground movement
Extreme temperature
Rain intensity
Energy efficiency Increased use of air conditioners Temperature Drought National AC I Medium
Humidity Extreme temperature
Insulation being inadequate for efficiency Average National U I Low
requirements temperatures
Efficiency of installation and services National P I Low
being compromised by climatic conditions
88
Fire safety Fire provisions for bushfires being Temperature Drought National P Cat High
inadequate more buildings in high risk Humidity Bushfire
bushfire prone areas Rain Average
Increased risk of damage to buildings due temperatures Regional P Cat High
to bushfire Extreme
temperatures
Reduced average
rainfall
Table 15: Risk matrix; evaluating the likelihood and consequences of climate change impacts on people in buildings
* L Likelihood, C Consequence, RR Risk Rating
89
7. POSSIBLE ADAPTATION MEASURES

This chapter summarises possible adaptation options for residential, commercial,
industrial and public buildings in Australia in relation to the various climate change
scenarios.
More Intense Winds (Including Cyclones)
Within BCA
Changes the design wind speeds and/or the boundaries of the cyclonic regions:
This can only be done if more research is carried out to quantify the
magnitudes of the required changes. For this purpose the ABCB recently
commissioned JDH Consulting to undertake a review of the effects of climate
change on design wind speeds and the boundaries of the cyclonic regions. The
report is titled "Impact of climate change on design wind speeds in cyclonic
regions".48 A RIS dealing with the matter was placed on the ABCB website
on 30 July 2010.
Extension of the required cyclic testing to cover other types of roof claddings:
A much wider variety of roof claddings is now being used in cyclone regions,
some may fail under cyclic loading condition similar to metal roofing (e.g.
metal tile clips, polycarbonate roofing etc.). This requires further investigation
before any provisions are introduced into the BCA.
Better design rules to prevent damages caused by wind-borne debris.
External to BCA
Remove known areas of vulnerability: such as strengthening of garage doors

and shed-like buildings in cyclonic regions. These require better industry
practice and better enforcement of the building regulation. The outcomes will
remain useful regardless of the magnitude of climate changes.
More Intense Rain
Within BCA
The only BCA adaptation measures proposed for the direct impacts of rainfall
intensity at this stage relate to the design of internal box and valley gutters and
detailing improvements to ensure overflowing gutters do not drain back into the
building. Issues relating to other rainfall considerations including flood, drought,
bushfire and subsidence are addressed under other topics.
External to BCA
Increasing capacity of stormwater drains and measures external to the property.
More Severe Floods
48
www.abcb.gov.au
90
Within BCA
In addition to avoiding building on flood prone land, other possible adaptation

measures include-
Increase minimum floor levels above flood level (with an additional freeboard
to allow for uncertainly and wave action)
Consider multi-storey construction
Use water-resistant construction materials (particularly below flood level)
Protect vulnerable services or install them above the flood level
Stronger foundations and design the building for flood loading and inundation
Improve building and site stormwater drainage systems
Permit the ready drainage of water when the flood has subsided
Consider access routes to reduce reliance on emergency services
While commercial buildings are likely to be at greater risk of flooding than houses
(mostly due to location, surrounded by impermeable surfaces, inadequate urban
stormwater drainage systems, and therefore may suffer more damage than houses),
they are also likely to suffer damage less as they are usually constructed of flood
resistant materials (i.e. concrete and masonry). A possible commercial building
adaptation measure is to locate vital services and equipment (lifts, boilers, plant,
switchboards, computer networks, telecommunications etc) above the flood level.
External to BCA
More extreme rainfall events and rises in sea-levels may require the development of
new flood and stormwater strategies for low-lying suburbs. Some buildings in flood
prone areas could become uninsurable, or at least face massive increases in premiums.
While one solution would be to avoid river flood plains and low-lying coastal areas
when planning and approving future property developments, these areas have become
areas of choice by an increasing number of sea-changers and others moving to
coastal areas, especially as many of the coastal suburbs are in low lying and reclaimed
areas.
More Severe Droughts
Within BCA
To reflect changes to referenced Australian Standards.
External to BCA
Droughts cause a reduction in soil moisture content and dropping water tables. In
clay soils this can result in significant ground movement leading to increased
stress on footing systems. Footings are difficult and expensive to upgrade/repair
during the life of a building. Therefore, it is important to ensure the footing
system is suitable for the duration of the building's design life.
It may be appropriate to review Australian Standard AS 2870 Residential slabs

and footings, in light of projected increases in droughts and subsequent variations
91
in soil moisture content. This could result in the need for stiffer/stronger footings
to resist greater soil movements to maintain current levels of structural safety and
serviceability.
If changes are made to AS 2870, the footings provisions of BCA Vol Two will
need to be amended accordingly.
If governments decide to reduce building water demand via water efficiency

measures or rainwater collection or greywater reuse methods, it would be
appropriate to consider including these measures in the BCA.
One method water authorities are using to reduce water leakages and losses in
pipes and other infrastructure is to reduce pressure in that infrastructure. This may
lead to a consequential effect of inadequate water pressure for fire fighting for
medium sized and large buildings. In future, public water infrastructure may be
inadequate for fire fighting and buildings may need to provide their own water
storage for fire fighting purposes.
Issues relating to other drought considerations including bushfire and subsidence

are addressed under other topics.
Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge
Within BCA
Review adequacy of current provisions relating to structural capacity and height of

floors.
External to BCA
Controlling new development in areas subject to sea level rise or storm surge is
primarily a local government planning responsibility. Planning instruments can
identify and map the land at risk of sea level rise or storm surge and either restrict
development in these areas, or permit it subject to conditions. An added pressure
for local governments is that these areas likely to be affected by sea level rise and
storm surge are becoming increasingly popular for retirees and people seeking a
sea change.
A March 2008 court decision in South Australia (Northcape Properties Pty Ltd V
District Council of Yorke Peninsula 2008 SASC 57) supported a local government
planning restriction of development in an area at risk of sea level rise due to
climate change. The South Australian Supreme Court ruled that predicted sea
level rises are a valid reason to reject a subdivision on Yorke Peninsula, west of
Adelaide where the local council had written stringent climate change clauses into
its planning rules. The Court cited local sea level rises of 30cm over the next 50
years in ruling against a subdivision proposal. The court ruled the changes are
expected and are not merely a probability and they would cause the waterline to
recede inland by 35-40m in the next 100 years.
92
If new buildings are permitted to be located in these affected areas, any building
measures relating to structural adequacy, selection of appropriate water resistant
materials, location of services etc should be located in the BCA not in planning
instruments.
Existing buildings located in areas subject to increasing risk of sea level rise or
storm surge may require the development of new flood and stormwater strategies.
Increased Salinity
Within BCA
Possible adaptation measures include-

The use of high impact resistant and less permeable damp proof membranes to
completely under lay slab-on-ground construction for all buildings with all laps
and penetrations sealed to completely separate the structure from the ground.
Adequate compaction and curing of concrete in slabs (surfaces and edges) to
increase durability and make it less permeable.
Appropriate material and location requirements for damp-proof courses.
External to BCA
Review current practices relating to vegetation management and irrigation.
Extreme Temperature Variations and Average Temperature Rise
Within BCA
Update climate zones periodically to better reflect, and clarify, the climatic
Include material and construction requirements for regions experiencing regular
extreme hot spells.
Provide a more transparent and consistent definition on the way in which climate
zones are classified and the role of average temperatures in this classification.
Decrease in Humidity
Update climate zones periodically to better reflect the climatic conditions at a

regional level.
Reduced Snow
No additional adaptation measures are proposed. If there is a significant long term

reduction in snow events and snow loads on buildings, there would be a case for
reducing current structural requirements.
Increased Hail
Within BCA
93
Any adaptation measure must be specific to regions with increased likelihood of hail.
The BCA contains no provision for hail because there has been little threat to life
safety. The property damage has been catered for by insurance. The use of sheet
roofing instead of tile roofing in hail affected areas may reduce the amount of
property damage by water penetration. This is already happening in the market as
shown by the statistics of metal and tile roofing in hail affected areas, however, the
reason is more likely to result from aesthetics, fashion or price, rather than potential
hail damage.
External to BCA
Market forces and insurance are likely to promote changes to materials and forms of
construction to minimise hail damage.
Increased Bushfire
Within BCA
Changes to BCA and referenced standards

Development of a standard on personal bushfire shelters (bushfire bunkers) as
a means of last resort
External to BCA
Measures used to manage bushfires are a mix of passive and active measures
including:
o Bushfire management: fuel reduction, fire breaks, fire fighting crews and
equipment
o Land use planning and development control
o Building design
o Community readiness and actions that owners can take
It can be seen from the above that building regulation may have some effect on
building design and that it can only be effective if other measures are also taken.
The interaction between building and planning is seen as a key factor for the
successful implementation of measures to manage the bushfire issue.
Increased Ground Movement
Within BCA
Consider making footings and slabs stiffer/stronger to cope with increased

ground movement.
External to BCA
Changes to relevant Australian Standards.
94
Reduced Durability
Nil at this stage.
Summary of Possible Adaptation Measures for various Climate Change Impacts
Climate Change Residential Buildings Commercial, Industrial, Building Owner

Impact Public Buildings and Community
Aspects
More Intense Within BCA As for residential. Improve
Winds (Including Changes to design wind speeds maintenance
Cyclones) and/or cyclonic region especially of older
boundaries. buildings (eg
Cyclic testing of all types of replacing/repairing
roof claddings. corroded fasteners,
Upgraded tie-down (e.g. roof dry rot in timber).
fasteners), and bracing Upgrade chain of
External to BCA tie-down fixings.
Improved design of garage
doors and sheds.
More Intense Rain Within BCA As for residential. Maintain roof
Improved weather tightness cladding and
and stormwater drainage, drainage system,
especially internal box and replace
valley gutters cracked/damaged
materials, keep
gutters etc clean.
More Severe Within BCA Within BCA Maintain site
Floods Increase minimum floor levels Locate vital services and drainage systems.
above flood level (e.g. multi- equipment (lifts, boilers, Where feasible,
storey construction) plant, switchboards, consider raising
Use water-resistant construction computer networks, floor levels.
materials below flood level telecommunications etc)
Protect vulnerable services or above the flood level.
install above the flood level
Stronger foundations and
design the building for flood
loading and inundation
Improve building and site
stormwater drainage systems
External to BCA
New flood and stormwater
strategies for low-lying land
More Severe Within BCA Within BCA Vegetation
Droughts Stiffer/stronger footings to Individual water storage for management
resist greater soil movement. fire fighting purposes. around site and
External to BCA External to BCA improved on-site
Reduce building water demand Reduce building water water storage.
via water efficiency measures, demand via water
rainwater collection or grey efficiency measures,
water reuse. rainwater collection or grey
water reuse.
Sea Level Within BCA As for residential. Identify evacuation
Rise/Storm Surge New buildings designed to strategies and heed
95
resist wave action, scour. warnings.

External to BCA
Avoid new developments in
prone areas.
Develop strategies for existing
affected areas.
Increased Salinity Building materials resistant to As for residential. Manage water use
salinity. around site, fix any
High impact resistant and less leaks and avoid
permeable damp proof excessive garden
membranes under floor slabs. watering.
Compaction and curing of
concrete slabs.
Appropriate material and
location for damp-proof
courses.
Extreme Within BCA Within BCA Improve ventilation
Temperature Update climate zones. More efficient air- and avoid heat
Variations and Improved insulation, glazing, conditioning, lighting, stress.
Average shading and material heating, ventilation
Temperature Rise requirements. systems.
Use passive design,
increase natural ventilation.
Decrease in Within BCA As for residential. Increased
Humidity Update climate zones. respiratory health
risks.
Reduced Snow Within BCA As for residential.
Possible reduction in snow
loads.
Increased Hail Within BCA Within BCA Maintain roofs and
Use more hail resistant roofing As for residential plus replace
materials. increased protection for cracked/damaged
Strengthen glazing or protect it. exposed services. components.
Increased Bushfire Within BCA As for residential. Manage vegetation
Improve resistance to ember, around buildings,
and direct flame attack. reduce combustible
Use more fire-resistant materials around
materials. site. Provide water
External to BCA storage.
Better interaction between
planning and building.
Increased Ground Within BCA As for residential. Consider placement
Movement Footings and slabs to be and removal of
stiffer/stronger, and services in trees close to
the ground to be more flexible, building.
to cope with increased ground
movement.
Reduced Durability Within BCA As for residential. Improved
Consider changes to durability maintenance of
provisions, including termite external cladding
management systems and improved
termite inspections.
Table 16 Summary of possible adaptation measures in buildings
96
References
8. FURTHER RESEARCH NEEDS
The following research needs have been identified by BRANZ9 and through analysis
conducted in this report.
1. More information is needed on potential changes and the increased probability of

extreme events such as heavy rainfall, flooding, hail, tropical cyclones, wind
gusts, sea-level rise, storm surge and bushfire to allow better informed decision
making in regard to changes to building standards. For example, do buildings need
to be built to higher standards for these extreme climate related events. More
specific related research needs include-
Review of the effects of climate changes on design wind speeds and the
boundaries of the cyclonic regions.
Review AS/NZS 1170.2:2002 Wind actions.
Investigate the need for the extension of cyclic testing requirements to other
roofing construction.
Investigate the need for better design rules for wind-borne debris.
Identify the likely increase in rainfall intensity eg the 5 minute rainfall
intensity for a given average recurrence interval.
Determine the impact of increased rainfall intensity on individual catchments

and how this will impact on current flood levels.
Understand and manage the risks from flash flooding, which is particularly a
problem for urban areas. Some areas also require further information in
relation to riverine flooding.
Identify the relationship between drought and soil moisture loss resulting in
increased potential for soil movement and subsidence.
Provide detailed maps of coastal areas indicating the likely sea level rise and
the areas likely to be impacted by storm surge. This information can then
inform local government planning instruments.
Further identify areas where salinity poses a risk and mapping these areas.
Investigate the impact of extreme temperature variations and an increase in
average temperatures on termite activity and the breakdown of preventative
chemical barriers.
Assess the benefits in providing temperature provisions for extreme events (in
addition to averages) similar to that of wind and rain.
Evaluate the benefits in using historical climate data to define climatic zones
as opposed to using climate forecasts.
Investigate the manner in which temperatures are used in referenced standards
to prescribe durability requirements.
Investigate the impact of humidity on termite activity and the likelihood and
consequences of change.
Clarify/assess the role of humidity in relation to other variables in defining
climatic zones in the BCA.
Improved knowledge of hail frequency, size and spatial distribution for risk
analysis.
Investigate the relationship between climate variables and ground movement
and the subsequent impact on footings and foundations.
97
References
2. Future proofing and protecting Australian buildings against climate change by

incorporating adaptation options into the building code. The inclusion of
sustainability as a goal in the BCA provides an opportunity for doing this (by
incorporating separate, new clauses or worked in as part of existing clauses).
3. More work is needed to identify a framework that allows climate change to be

harmoniously incorporated into both land-use planning and building standards, so
they work effectively together ensuring no gaps in the building process. This is
particularly important for urban water use, flooding, bushfire, sea-level rise/storm
surge. Developing a framework to allow local councils to identify the land use
issues in their area that are consistent with neighbouring councils, while
acknowledging the role of the BCA in setting technical building standards.
4. Encourage and support initiatives that are aimed at mainstreaming sustainable

design and construction e.g. use of the Your Home manual, HIAs Greensmart
programme, etc. This will by default improve the resilience of new buildings to
the impacts of climate change.
5. Encourage and support research into novel systems and technologies for the
adaptation of residential and commercial buildings to climate change.
6. There is also a need to research prospective homeowner aspirations and needs in

terms of home design versus the expectations and strategies of home designers
and builders, and the extent to which either/both are in alignment or conflict with
home design which is appropriate to deal with the challenges of climate change.
7. Develop a risk and condition-assessment methodology to determine benchmark

levels for retrofitting and/or replacement of Australian residential and commercial
building stock.
8. Modelling techniques can be used to assess the potential range of climate

outcomes based on current understanding. This information can be presented in
the form of a probability density function (PDF), where the median has the highest
probability of occurring, but where there is also a chance of outcomes that are
either much more benign, or much more damaging. PDFs have been developed
for individual elements such as rainfall and temperature. However, it would be of
much greater assistance to building regulators if PDFs were available for the
entire range of climate related hazards including cyclones, floods, bushfires, hail
and intense rainfall in different regions. This information would be of significant
assistance to building regulators in ensuring buildings would be sufficiently
resilient and adaptable to the impacts of climate change.
PRIORITY RESEARCH NEEDS
Analysis of the risk matrix in chapter 3 and the further research needs in chapter 5 has
identified the following priority research needs in relation to investigating BCA
adaptation measures for climate change-
Priority 1
Review the ability of buildings to cope with increased bushfire risk.
98
References
Review BCA energy efficiency provisions and other measures to reduce risk of
heat stress related health impacts on occupants.
A RIS covering the proposals relating to the impact of climate change design wind
speeds in cyclonic regions.
Better data more suited to our use ie climate scientists to develop PDFs for all
climate related hazards (not just provide estimates of temp, rainfall, but also cover
hazards such as cyclones and other wind events, bushfire, flood, storm surge, hail
etc) for specific regions.
Continue to monitor climate change information and research to identify whether
the low or high emissions case is likely, and identify any new risks so they can be
addressed.
Priority 2
Review the ability of buildings and structures (particularly roof cladding) and
associated test methods, to cope with higher winds.
Investigate measures to reduce risk of storm surge.
Investigate the impact of climate change on the design annual probabilities of
exceedance for climate related hazards. For example, to maintain the current
BCA requirement for housing to resist wind with an annual probability of
exceedance of 1:500, do the current standards need to be more stringent.
Guideline on flooding, including construction options to minimise flood damage.
99
References
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Cyclone Vance on Exmouth. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Volume
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http://www.changeclimatechange.org.au/ChangeCC/PDFs/How%20Bushfires%20Aff
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performance in New Zealand, Building Research & Information, 29(6), 440-450,
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Arrangements, Department of Transport and Regional Services, Canberra, Australia,
2004.
EMA, Heatwaves, Attorney Generals Department, Emergency Management Australia,
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Consultancy report, CSIRO Marine and atmosphere research, 2005.
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104
Appendices
10. APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1 - SUMMARY OF BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED

BY VARIOUS CLIMATE SCENARIOS
A1.1- Wind intensity (Including Cyclones)

A1.2 - Rain intensity
A1.3 - Flood
A1.4 - Drought
A1.5 - Sea level rise/Storm surge
A1.6 - Salinity
A1.7 - Average temperature rise
A1.8 - Extreme temperature variation
A1.9 - Humidity
A1.10 - Snow
A1.11 - Hail
A1.12 - Bushfire
A1.13 - Ground movement
A1.14 - Durability
105
Appendices
A1.1 Wind Intensity (Including Cyclones)
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY WIND ISSUES (INCLUDING CYCLONES)

BCA VOL ONE BCA VOL TWO
Building Issues
Referenced Referenced
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site
Site Stability
Site Drainage
B1.2(c) AS1170.2 3.10.1 AS4055
B1.3(b)(e)(f) AS3700 3.4.4.1 NASH -
BP1.1(b) AS3600 3.11.5(b) Design Criteria
Structure Specification AS4100 AS1684.2
B1.2 AS4600 AS1684.4
B1.4 AS2327.1 AS1170.2
AS4055 (1992)
Foundation and 3.3.1.2 (v)
Footings
B1.4(j) AS2049 3.5.3.5
Roof AS2050
AS1562.3
3.3.2.1(a) AS3700
3.3.2.2 (c) (e) AS4055
(f) (g) AS1170.2
3.3.1.1 AS/NZS1170.2
Wall
3.3.3.1 AS/NZS
3.3.3..2 (e) 2699.1
3.3.3.3
3.3.3.4
Floor/Sub-floor
B1.4(h) AS2047 3.6 AS2047
AS1288 3.6.1 AS1288
3.11
Glazing Queensland
variation 3.6.0
Queensland
variation 3.11.6
Durability
Cladding
B1.4(j) AS/NZS 1562.3 3.5.1.0 AS2049
AS/NZS 1562.1 3.5.1.1 AS1562.1
Roof Cladding 3.5.1.2 AS/NZS1562.3
3.3.3.3 (b)
3.5.3.1
Wall Cladding
3.5.3.4
Health and
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy J4.2 AS/NZS 1170.2
Efficiency
Fire safety
106
Appendices
A1.2 Rain Intensity

BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY RAIN INTENSITY
Building Issue Reference Reference
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
3.1.1.1
Site Stability (explanatory
info)
FP1.1 AS/NZS3500.3 P2.2.1 AS/NZS3500.3
FP1.2 3.1.2.1(a) AS/NZS3500.5
FP1.3 3.1.2.3(a) AS1562.1
Site Drainage
FP1.4 3.1.2.3(b) 1992
F1.1 3.1.2.5 AS2180
AS2870
BP1.1 AS/NZS1170.0 P2.1
B1.1
Structure B1.2
B1.3
B1.4
BP1.1 AS3600 Part 3.2 AS2870
B1.1 AS2159 AS2159
Foundation and
B1.2
Footings
B1.3
B1.4
FP1.4 AS1562.1 P2.2.1 AS2049
F1.5 AS/NZS1562 P2.2.2 AS1562.1
F1.6 parts 2, 3 Part 3.5.1 AS/NZS1562
AS2049 Part 3.5.2 parts 2, 3
AS2050 AS/NZS4256
AS/NZS2908.1 parts 1, 2, 3, 5
Roof AS/NZS4256 AS4200
parts 1, 2, 3, 5 ASTM D3018
ASTM D3018 90
90 AS/NZS
3500.3
AS/NZS
3500.5
FP1.4 AS2047 P2.2.2 AS3700
Wall F1.13 Part 3.3.4
Part 3.5.3
Floor
FP1.4 AS2047 Part 3.5.3 AS2047
Glazing
F1.13 Part 3.6 AS1288
Durability
Cladding
FP1.1 AS/NZS3500.3
FP1.2
Health and
FP1.3
Amenity
FP1.4
F1.1
Water Penetration (see site drainage, (see site drainage, (see site drainage, (see site drainage,
(see site drainage, structure, roof, wall structure, roof, wall structure, roof, wall structure, roof, wall
structure, roof, wall and glazing) and glazing) and glazing) and glazing)
and glazing)
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy Efficiency
Fire safety
107
Appendices
A1.3 Flood
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY FLOOD
Building Issue Referenced Referenced
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site Stability
F1.1 AS/NZS 3.1.2.0 AS/NZS
3500.3 3.1.2.1(a) 3500.3
Site Drainage
3.1.2.3(a)&(b) AS/NZS
3500.5
BP1.1(a)&(b)
Structure
B1.2(e)
Foundation and 3.2.0 AS2870
Footings
Roof
Wall
Floor
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
Health and
Amenity
FP1.2 AS/NZS
Water Penetration FP1.3 3500.3
F1.1
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy Efficiency
Fire safety
108
Appendices
A1.4 Drought
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY DROUGHT
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
BP1.1 AS 3600 Part 3.2 AS 2870
Site Stability
B1.2(e) AS 2870
Site Drainage
BP1.1 AS 3600 Part 3.2 AS 2870
Structure
B1.2(e) AS 2870
BP1.1 AS 3600 Part 3.2 AS 2870
B1.2(e) AS 2870 AS 2159
Foundation and
AS 3600
Footings
AS 4100
AS 1684
Roof
Wall
Floor
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
Health and
Amenity
Water Penetration
Energy use
Potential future Potential future Potential future Potential future
Water use
impact impact impact impact
Air quality
Access
Energy Efficiency
Potential future Potential future Potential future Potential future
Fire safety
impact impact impact impact
109
Appendices
A1.5 Sea level rise/ Storm surge

BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE/STORM SURGE
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site Stability
F1.1 AS/NZS 3.1.2.0 AS/NZS
3500.3 3.1.2.1(a) 3500.3
Site Drainage
3.1.2.3(a)&(b) AS/NZS
3500.5
BP1.1(a)&(b)
Structure
B1.2(e)
Foundation and 3.2.0 AS2870
Footings
Roof
Wall
Floor
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
Health and
Amenity
FP1.2 AS/NZS
Water Penetration FP1.3 3500.3
F1.1
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy Efficiency
Fire safety
110
Appendices
A1.6 Salinity
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY SALINITY IMPACT
Building Issue Reference Reference
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site Stability
Site Drainage
BP1.1 AS/NZS 2904 P2.2.3 AS 2159
FP1.5 AS 3660.1 AS 3600
Structure BP1.2 AS 2870 AS 2870
B1.2(e) AS/NZS AS/NZS 2904
1170.1 AS 3700
FP1.5 AS/NZS 2904 P2.2.3 AS 2159
F1.9 AS 3660.1 AS 3600
Foundation and
F1.10 AS 2870 AS 2870
Footings
AS/NZS 2904
AS 3700
Roof
FP1.5 AS/NZS 2904 P2.2.3 AS 2159
F1.9 AS 3660.1 3.3.1.5(b) AS 3600
Wall F1.10 AS 2870 3.3.1.7 AS 2870
AS/NZS 2904
AS 3700
FP1.5 AS/NZS 2904 AS 2159
F1.9 AS 3660.1 AS 3600
Floor F1.10 AS 2870 AS 2870
AS/NZS 2904
AS 3700
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
F1.9 AS/NZS 2904 P2.2.3 AS 2159
F1.10 AS 3660.1 AS 3600
Health and
AS 2870 AS 2870
Amenity
AS/NZS 2904
AS 3700
Water Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy Efficiency
Fire safety
111
Appendices
A1.7 Average temperature rise

BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY INCREASED AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
Building Issue
BCA BCA
Documents documents
Site
Site Stability
Site Drainage
B1.4 AS 3600 P2.1 b(xii), (c) (v) AS 3600
B1.1 AS 3700 AS 3700
AS 4100 AS 4100
AS 4600 AS/NZS
Structure
AS 4600
2327.1 AS/NZS
AS/NZS 1170
1170
Foundation 3.2.3.1(a) (d) AS3600
and Footings
Roof B1.4(j) AS1562.3
Wall 3.3.3.4 AS4100
Floor
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
Roof Cladding
Wall Cladding
Health and
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
3.9.2.3 (explanatory
Access
information)
J1.3 J3.3 J4.3 3.12.1.2 3.12.4.1
J1.5 J3.4 J5.2 3.12.1.4 3.12.4.2
J1.6 J3.5 J5.5 3.12.1.5 3.12.5.0
Energy
J2.3 J3.6 J7.2 3.12.1.6 3.12.5.2
Efficiency
J2.4 J3.7 JV1 3.12.2.1 3.12.5.3
J3.1 J4.2 3.12.3 3.12.3.6
Fire safety
112
A1.8 Extreme temperature variations

BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY EXTREME TEMPERATURE VARIATION
Building BCA VOL ONE BCA VOL TWO

Issue Referenced
BCA Referenced Documents BCA
Documents
Site
Site
Stability
Site
Drainage
B1.4 AS3600 P2.1 b(xii), (c) (v) AS4100
BP1.1 AS3700 AS3600
BP1.2 (e) AS4100 AS3700
Structure B1.2 (e) AS4600 AS4600
AS2327.1
AS/NZS1170.1
AS/NZS 1170.0
Foundation 3.2.3.1
and
Footings
B1.4 (j) AS1562.3 3.5.1.0 AS1562.1
Roof
Wall
Floor
Glazing B1.4 (h) AS2047
Durability
Cladding
Roof
Cladding
Wall
Cladding
Health and
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Water use
Air quality
3.9.2.3 (explanatory
Access
information)
J1.3 J3.3 J4.3 AS/NZS3823.1.2 3.12.1.2 3.12.4.1
J1.5 J3.4 J5.2 T1 3.12.1.4 3.12.4.2
J1.6 J3.5 J5.5 3.12.1.5 3.12.5.0
Energy J2.3 J3.6 J7.2 3.12.1.6 3.12.5.2
Efficiency J2.4 J3.7 JV1 3.12.2.1 3.12.5.3
J3.1 J4.2 3.12.3 3.12.3.6
Fire safety
113
Appendices
A1.9 Humidity
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY HUMIDITY
Building BCA VOL ONE BCA VOL TWO

Issue Referenced Referenced
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site
Site
Stability
Site
Drainage
Structure 3.4.1.2
Foundation
and
Footings
Roof
Wall 3.3.1.10
Floor
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
Roof
Cladding
Wall
Cladding
Health and F1.12
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
J1.3 J3.3 J4.3 3.12.1.2 3.12.4.1
J1.5 J3.4 J5.2 3.12.1.4 3.12.4.2
J1.6 J3.5 J5.5 3.12.1.5 3.12.5.0
Energy
Efficiency J2.3 J3.6 J7.2 3.12.1.6 3.12.5.2
J2.4 J3.7 JV1 3.12.2.1 3.12.5.3
J3.1 J4.2 3.12.3
Fire safety
114
A1.10 Snow
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY SNOW
Building Issue
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site
Site Stability
Site Drainage
Part B1 AS 1170.3 3.7.5 AS/NZS
Part G4 AS 3600 3.11.3(c) 1170.3
AS 3700 3.11.5 (c) AS 1720.1
AS 4100 3.4.4.1 AS 4100
Structure
AS 4600 P2.1(b)
AS 2327.1 3.11.6 (a) (c)
AS 1720.1
Foundation and
Footings
Roof
Wall
Floor
Glazing
Durability
Cladding
Roof Cladding
Wall Cladding
Health and Amenity
Water Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access Part G4 3.7.5
Energy Efficiency
Fire safety GP4.4 P2.3.5
115
Appendix 1: Summary of BCA provisions affected by various climate scenarios
A1.11 Hail
There are no BCA provisions directly relating to hail.
116
A1.12 Bushfire
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY BUSHFIRE ISSUES
Building Issue
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site
Site Stability
Site Drainage
Part G5 AS3959 Part 3.7.4 AS3959
Section 79BA of P 2.3.4 AS/NZS 3837
the ASTM D2898
Environmental Method B
Planning and
Assessment Act
1979 (NSW
Structure only)
Section 100B of
the Rural Fires
Act 1997 (NSW
only)
South Australian
development
plan (SA only)
Foundation and
Footings
Roof
P2.3.4
Wall
P2.3.4
Floor Part G5 AS3959 Part 3.7.4 AS3959
Glazing Part 3.7.4
Durability
Cladding
P2.3.4
Roof Cladding B 1.4(j) AS1562.3 P2.3.4
Wall Cladding P2.3.4
Health and
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality AS 3837
Access
Energy
Efficiency
Part 3.7.4 AS/NZS 3837
P2.3.4 ASTM D2898
Fire safety Method B
117
A1.13 Ground movement
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY GROUND MOVEMENT

Building Issue
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
AS2870
Site AS 1170.4
(1993)
Site Stability 3.2.4 AS 2870
F1.1 AS/NZS 3.2.5.1 AS 2870
3500.3 3.1.2.4 AS/NZS
Site Drainage
3500.3
AS/NZS3500.5
BP1.1 AS/NZS 3.11.3 (g) AS 1170.1
BP1.2 1170.0 AS 3700
B1.2 AS 3600 AS 3600
B1.4 AS 3700
Structure
AS 4100
AS 4600
AS 2327.1
B1.4(g) AS 2159 3.2.0 3.2.5.1 AS 2870

AS 2870 3.2.1 3.2.5.2 AS 2159
AS 3600 3.2.2.1(f) 3.2.5.6 AS 3600
Foundation 3.2.2.3 (a) Cement
and Footings 3.2.2.4 Concrete and
Aggregates
Australia TN
61
3.3.1.8 AS 1170.4
Roof 3.3.2.1 (1993)
3.3.3.1 AS 1170.4
3.3.1.2 (1993)
Wall
3.3.1.8 AS 3700
3.3.2.1
Floor
Glazing
Cladding
Roof
Cladding
Wall Cladding
Health and
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy
Efficiency
Fire safety
118
A1.14 Durability
BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY DURABILITY ISSUES

Building Issues
BCA BCA
Documents Documents
Site
Site Stability
Site Drainage
B1.4 AS3600 Part 3.1.3 AS1397
AS3700 3.4.2.2
AS4100 3.4.4.4
AS4600
Structure
NASH Standard
AS1720.1
AS3660
AS2327.1
Foundation and B1.4(g) AS2159 3.2.3.1 AS3600
Footings
Roof
Wall 3.3.3.2
Floor/Sub-floor 3.4.1.2(g) AS1684
B1.4(h) AS2047
Glazing
AS1288
Durability
Cladding
B1.4(j) AS/NZS 1562.3 3.5.1.3 AS4256
AS2049 AS2049
Roof Cladding AS2050 AS/NZS2908.1
AS/NZS2908.1
Wall Cladding
Health and
Amenity
Water
Penetration
Energy use
Water use
Air quality
Access
Energy
Efficiency
Fire safety
119

2010-12 Investigation of Possible BCA Adaptation Measures For Climate Change Final

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2010-12 Investigation of Possible BCA Adaptation Measures For Climate Change Final

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AN INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE BUILDING CODE

OF AUSTRALIA (BCA) ADAPTATION MEASURES

FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Australian Building Codes Board

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 1

2. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ......................................................................................................... 13

2.1 Past climate change...................................................................................................................... 13

2.2 Future climate change ................................................................................................................. 13

2.3 Climate change scenarios ............................................................................................................ 13

2.4 Climate change impacts and responses...................................................................................... 15

3. AUSTRALIAN BUILDING CODES BOARD .......................................................................................... 18

3.1 Australian Building Codes Board .............................................................................................. 18

3.2 BCA Objectives............................................................................................................................ 21

4.1 Building projections..................................................................................................................... 25

4.2 Australia's Building Stock........................................................................................................... 25

5. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND IMPACT ON BUILDINGS/BCA........................................ 29

5.1 WIND INTENSITY (INCLUDING CYCLONES) ................................................................... 29

5.2 RAINFALL .................................................................................................................................. 34

5.5 SEA LEVEL RISE/STORM SURGE ........................................................................................ 46

5.7 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE ......................................................................................... 55

5.8 EXTREME TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS......................................................................... 59

5.13 GROUND MOVEMENT ............................................................................................................ 75

6. RISK MATRIX ............................................................................................................................................ 84

7. POSSIBLE ADAPTATION MEASURES.................................................................................................. 90

8. FURTHER RESEARCH NEEDS ............................................................................................................... 97

9. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 100

10. APPENDIX 1 - SUMMARY OF BCA PROVISIONS AFFECTED BY VARIOUS CLIMATE

Figure 1: Community resilience and loss under a low emissions scenario....................4

Figure 2: Confidence in effects of climate change ......................................................17

Figure 3: Community resilience and loss under a low emissions scenario..................14

Figure 4: Climatic zones in the BCA by location. .......................................................56

Figure 6: Sub floor ventilation requirements ...............................................................63

Figure 7: Distribution of losses of houses due to bushfire...........................................74

Figure 8: Relationship between FFDI and percentage of total losses..........................74

Figure 9: Termite hazard map based on agro-ecological consideration ......................81

Figure 10: Termite hazard map based on average temperature ...................................82

Table 1: Specification of design wind speeds according to the BCA..........................30

Table 2: Climate zones in the BCA by classification ..................................................56

Table 3: Likely change in extreme temperature events, relative to 1990 levels..........60

Table 5: Design snow depth in the BCA ....................................................................66

weather - 2020 and 2050, relative to 1990...................................................................71

Table 8: Number of new buildings constructed in BPA - annual average...................72

Table 9: Site classification in the BCA........................................................................76

Table 10: Probability of termite hazard relative to temperature ..................................81

Table 11: Assessment of regional impacts of climate change .....................................84

Table 12: Assessment of the likelihood of climate change impacts ............................84

Table 13: Evaluating the consequences of climate change impacts ............................84

Table 14: Risk rating of climate change impacts.........................................................85

impacts on people in buildings ....................................................................................89

Table 16 Summary of possible adaptation measures in buildings ...............................96

There is increasing community awareness of climate change and of the need to

Resilience of buildings designed and constructed to the BCA

Effects of future climate change on buildings

In spite of uncertainties highlighted above in regard to future climate change impacts,

Possible BCA adaptation measures for climate change

Benefits of adaptation measures

relatively immediate benefits. However, the ability of buildings to adapt is also

Possible tools for climate change adaptation

Engage with peak industry and environmental organisations, all levels of

If it is determined through a regulatory assessment process that the appropriate tool

The role of land use planning

National Adaptation Framework

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) endorsed a National Adaptation