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Southern Steel

Recommendation: BUY
Stock Code: 5665 Bloomberg: SSB MK Price: MYR2.04 12-Month Target Price: MYR2.35 Date: July 19, 2010

Board: Main Pr ice 30 Day Moving Aver age Pr ice ( MYR)


4.00
Sector: Industrial Products 3.50

GICS: Materials/Steel 3.00

Market Value - Total: MYR855.6 mln 2.50

2.00

1.50

Summary: Southern Steel Berhad (Southern Steel) is 1.00


Malaysia’s largest producer of steel bars and wire rods with a
combined annual production capacity of 1.3 mln tons per Vol ume Vol ('000)

annum (tpa). The group also has billet production capabilities 3,000

of up to 1.3 mln tpa and a 0.5 mln tpa of rolling capacity. The 2,000

stock is a component of FBM EMAS. 1,000

Analyst: Su Peng Ng Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Feb 08 Apr 08 Jun 08 Aug 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10

Recent Developments Recommendation & Investment Risks

• Southern Steel received a notice of mandatory takeover offer from • We maintain our Buy on Southern Steel with a lower 12-month target
Signaland Sdn Bhd (Offeror) for shares that the Offeror and Persons price of MYR2.35 (from MYR2.85) as a result of our reduced 2010
Acting in Concert (PAC) do not own. Signaland and PAC together own earnings estimate.
70.2% of Southern Steel shares. • Our target price is derived after ascribing a target PER multiple of 8x
(unchanged) against our estimated 2010 EPS plus our estimated 2010
• Signaland is owned by Dr. Poh Soon Sim and Spectrum Arrangement net DPS of 6.9 sen. Our target multiple is within peer and historical
Sdn Bhd (SASB), a wholly owned subsidiary of Hong Leong Company averages. We believe 8x is a fair multiple as it is within the group’s
(Malaysia) Berhad. Signaland bought its 27% stake in Southern Steel minimum and average historical PER range (since 2007) of 4x to 13x.
from Natsteel Holdings Pte Ltd (unlisted) on July 16, 2010 for
MYR2.05 per share. • We believe shareholders may garner better returns if they continue to
hold the stock, especially when large domestic projects are rolled out,
• Our earnings estimates are revised and the cash offer of MYR2.05 which we expect toward end-2010 and into 2011. However, the cash
translates into 2010 PER of 7x (based on revised earnings), offer may limit share price performance in the near term.
comparable to peer average but slightly lower than Southern Steel’s • Risks to our recommendation and target price include volatile steel and
median PER of 7.5x (since 2007). On a P/B method however, the offer raw material prices arising from uncertainties in the global
price fairly values Southern Steel at 1x, within peer average and the environment, and slower-than-expected rollout of large domestic
group’s historical median of 1x. infrastructure projects.
• We consider that the offer undervalues Southern Steel, given current Earnings Outlook
prospects, considering that large domestic infrastructure projects could
boost sales over the next 12 months, and while regional demand is • We adjust our raw material (scrap) price assumptions to better reflect
also robust, especially from Vietnam. We look for improved sales over recent market prices, hence reducing our 2010-2011 earnings
the next 12 months, but risk to earnings remains from higher scrap estimates to MYR119.6 mln (from MYR145.4 mln) and MYR132.8 mln
prices - they have risen more than 30% YTD. (from MYR160.1 mln) respectively.

Key Stock Statistics Per Share Data


FY Dec. 2009 2010E FY Dec. 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Reported EPS (sen) 3.9 28.5 Book Value (MYR) 1.77 1.81 1.80 2.04
PER (x) 52.8 7.2 Cash Flow (sen) 67.7 44.0 24.2 50.2
Dividend/Share (sen) 5.0 7.5 Reported Earnings (sen) 48.0 25.0 3.9 28.5
NTA/Share (MYR) 1.68 1.92 Dividend (sen) 7.5 12.5 5.0 7.5
Book Value/Share (MYR) 1.80 2.04 Payout Ratio (%) 15.6 10.6 113.2 24.1
No. of Outstanding Shares (mln) 419.4 PER (x) 4.2 8.2 52.8 7.2
52-week Share Price Range (MYR) 1.60 - 2.66 P/Cash Flow (x) 3.0 4.6 8.4 4.1
Major Shareholders: % P/Book Value (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Hume Industries (Malaysia) Berhad 41.5 Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 6.1 2.5 3.7
Signaland Sdn Bhd 27.0 ROE (%) 28.8 67.6 2.1 14.9
Southern Amalgamated Co 7.8 Net Gearing (%) 104.0 110.3 96.8 79.1
* Stock deemed Shariah compliant by the Securities Commission

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Southern Steel
Recommendation: BUY
Stock Code: 5665 Bloomberg: SSB MK Price: MYR2.04 12-Month Target Price: MYR2.35 Date: July 19, 2010

Profit & Loss


FY Dec. / MYR mln 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Reported Revenue 3,222.4 2,032.5 2,408.3 2,598.0
Reported Operating Profit 532.9 29.3 160.4 173.1
Depreciation & Amortization -73.9 -78.4 -82.9 -86.5
Net Interest Income / (Expense) -38.4 -22.5 -29.5 -27.5
Reported Pre-tax Profit 106.5 8.8 132.9 147.6
Effective Tax Rate (%) 3.7 NM 10.0 10.0
Reported Net Profit 104.7 16.2 119.6 132.8
Reported Operating Margin (%) 16.5 1.4 6.7 6.7
Reported Pre-tax Margin (%) 3.3 0.4 5.5 5.7
Reported Net Margin (%) 3.2 0.8 5.0 5.1
Source: Company data, S&P Equity Research

All required disclosures and analyst certification appear on the last two pages of this report. Additional information is available upon request.
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Recommendation and Target Price History P rice (M YR)


Date Recommendation Target Price 4.0
New Buy 2.35
22-Jan-10 Buy 2.85
3.5
7-Aug-09 Strong Buy 2.30
7-May-09 Buy 1.90
20-Feb-09 Hold 1.60 3.0
10-Nov-08 Hold 1.50
19-Aug-08 Buy 3.80 2.5
27-May-08 Buy 4.00

2.0

1.5

1.0
Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10

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