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MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES

Commodities • 20.07.2010 • Jyske Markets

Commodity Price Short term market drivers Technical levels Target 1M

Crude Oil (WTI), 1M. 76,65 Continued uncertainty about de bt situation in southern Europe, demand from China and the US economy - Resistance: 80,00 next 82,00
$/brl. Julys oil market reports showed unchanged to slightly higher expectations of demand in 2010. + Support: 70,00 next 66,00 75
Active hurricane se ason: Storms at US/Mexican coast can support. Tropical storm Alex doe s not seem to cause problems
+/- Momentum: 
Gold NYMEX spot 1184 Continued uncertainty about de bt situation in southern Europe + Resistance: 1.275 next 1.300
$/oz Interest rate hike in India contributes to nervousness about future demand for gold - Support: 1.170 next 1.150 1250
FED wants to keep rates low for an "exte nded" period. Focus on inflation fear still supports + Momentum: 
Copper LME, 3M 6560 Continued uncertainty about de bt situation in southern Europe. Also, concerns for Chineese real estate marke t persists - Resistance: 7.000 next 7.200
$/t China will let its currency strengthen and thereby increase the buying power (commodity demand), import falls 17 % m-o-m in June +/- Support: 6.400 next 6.000 6.500
China still has high growth in 2nd quarte r, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) + Momentum: 
Aluminium LME, 1982 Financing deals means that, e ven if LME-inve ntories are at record highs, a smaller part of the physical aluminium is available + Resistance: 2.070 next 2.170
3M $/t China still has high growth in 2nd quarte r, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) +/- Support: 1.850 next 1.800 1.900
Continued uncertainty about de bt situation in southern Europe and demand from China - Momentum: 
Nickel LME, 3M 18950 Still weak demand indicators in the OECD - but improving in rece nt months - Resistance: 22.000 next 23.000
$/t China still has high growth in 2nd quarte r, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) + Support: 17.000 next 15.750 19.000
INSG expects balanced market i 2010 against a surplus i 2011. + Momentum: 
Wheat CBOT 607,0 USDA (June): Lower estimates for production in 2010/11, but US end stocks more or less unchanged +/- Resistance: 620 next 640
Dec10 USc/bu Crop conditions in the US at a very high level suggest high yields - Support: 600 next 570 585
Worries on Europe an and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) + Momentum: 
Wheat MATIF 168,00 USDA (June): Lower estimates for production in 2010/11, but US end stocks more or less unchanged +/- Resistance: 170 next 180
Nov10 €/t Worries on Europe an and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) + Support: 165 next 160 165
Strong competition from Russia for e xport markets; this affects primarily European wheat - Momentum: 
Continued on next page…

Publisher: Editors: Trading desk, commodities:


Hans Chr. Haugaard Read more:
Jyske Markets Casper Andersen Charlotte Rahlf Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com
Commodities Analyst Analyst Søren Kræn Pedersen
Vestergade 8-16 +45 89 89 71 74 +45 89 89 71 75 Peter Peschardt Disclaimer:
DK-8600 Silkeborg candersen@jyskebank.dk crahlf@jyskebank.dk +45 87 57 82 65 Please see the last page
raavarer@jyskebank.dk
MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES
Commodities • 20.07.2010 • Jyske Markets

Commodity Price Short term market drivers Technical levels Target 1M

Corn CBOT 392,0 Continued indications of Chinee se imports support + Resistance: 400 next 415
Dec10 USc/bu Most recent data from USDA sugge sts high ethanol use + Support: 375 next 350 415
Crop conditions in the US at a high level suggest high yields - Momentum: 
Soybeans CBOT 973,0 Imports to China hit rekord leve l in June (up 42 % m/m og 32 % y/y) + Resistance: 1.000 next 1.050
Nov10 USc/bu China will let its currency strengthen and thereby increase the buying power (commodity demand) - Support: 950 next 900 960
South american harvest will most like ly be quite large and reduce US exports when harvested - Momentum: 
Rapeseed MATIF 355,8 Large end inventories and declining demand for bio diesel. - Resistance: 375 next 400
Nov10 €/t Prospects for a lower than expected production - for e xample in China + Support: 350 next 320 380
Oil World: The acre age is e xpected to fall by 6% ->a production decline to 3.3 mio. t to 55 mio. t for the ne w harvest. + Momentum: 

Publisher: Editors: Trading desk, commodities:


Hans Chr. Haugaard Read more:
Jyske Markets Casper Andersen Charlotte Rahlf Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com
Commodities Analyst Analyst Søren Kræn Pedersen
Vestergade 8-16 +45 89 89 71 74 +45 89 89 71 75 Mads Hemmingsen Disclaimer:
DK-8600 Silkeborg candersen@jyskebank.dk crahlf@jyskebank.dk Peter Peschardt Please see the last page
+45 87 57 82 65
raavarer@jyskebank.dk
MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES
Commodities • 20.07.2010 • Jyske Markets

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