Defect / Variation

Reduction Roadmap
=
The Six Sigma
Methodology

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 Example of a Process with Variation
Example: Identify the process settings required to eliminate the
need to grade bearings
Characterization of Process Y = f (x)
Key Process Input Key Process Output
Variables (Xs) Variables (Ys)
Surface Finish
Cleanliness Process
Process
Hardness Noise
Level Critical
Critical
Ovality to
to
Waviness Bearing
Bearing Customer
Customer
Assembly Machine Performance
Performance
Lubrication

What causes the Noise & the Variation in the Noise Level ????

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 The Six Sigma Methodology

The 5 phases of the Six Sigma Methodology

Opportunity
Identification
Define

Measure Continuously
Process repeat and
Characterization improve!
Analyze No complacency
with success!

Improve
Process
A IC
Optimization
D M
Control

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 Defect / Variation Reduction Roadmap

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

A. Identify Project B. Develop C. Define

KPOVs & KPIVs Team Charter Process Map

Deliverables: Deliverables: Deliverables:

1) Identify Customer(s) 1) Develop The 1) High Level Process
2) Identify Project Key Business Case Map Connecting the
Process Output 2) Develop The Customer to the
Variables (KPOVs) Problem and Goal Process
3) Identify the Key Statements 2) Summary of Define
Process Input 3) Determine Project Phase
Variables (KPIVs) Scope
that effect the Tools:
4) Select Team &
KPOVs. Process Mapping
Define Roles
5) Set Project
Milestones

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Defect / Variation Reduction Roadmap

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

A. Identify Project B. Develop C. Define

KPOVs & KPIVs Team Charter Process Map

Deliverables: Deliverables: Deliverables:

1) Identify Customer(s) 1) Develop The 1) High Level Process
2) Identify Project Key Business Case Map Connecting the
Process Output 2) Develop The Customer to the
Variables (KPOVs) Problem and Goal Process
3) Identify the Key Statements 2) Summary of Define
Process Input 3) Determine Project Phase
Variables (KPIVs) Scope
that effect the Tools:
4) Select Team &
KPOVs. Process Mapping
Define Roles
5) Set Project
Milestones

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Defect / Variation Reduction Roadmap

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

1. Select KPOV 2. Define 3. Measurement

Characteristics Performance Standards System Evaluation

Deliverable: Deliverable: Deliverables:

Identify Measurable Key Determine and 1) Measurement
Process Output Variable Confirm Specification System Adequate to
(KPOV) that will be Limits for your Y. Measure Y
Improved 2) Summary of Measure
Phase.
Tools:
Quality Function Tools:
Deployment (QFD) Continuous Gage
Process Mapping R&R
Cause & Effect Diagram Test / Retest
FMEA Attribute Gage R&R
Discrete vs. Contin. Data

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 Defect / Variation Reduction Roadmap

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

4. Establish 5. Define Perfor- 6. Identify Variation

Process Capability mance Objectives Sources

Deliverable: Deliverable: Deliverable:

Baseline Current Statistically Define the List of Statistically
Process Goal of the Project Significant Xs,
Chosen Based on
Tools: Tools: Analysis of Historical
Basic statistics Benchmarking Data
Graphical Analysis
Tools:
Sampling
Process Analysis
Continuous Zst, Zlt
Graphical Analysis
Normality
Hypothesis Testing
Discrete Zst, Zlt
Regression Analysis
ANOVA

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 Defect / Variation Reduction Roadmap

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

7. Screen Potential 8. Discover Variable 9. Establish Operating

Causes Relationships Tolerances

Deliverable: Deliverables: Deliverable:

Determine the Vital 1) Establish Transfer Specify Tolerances on
Few Xs That Are Function Between Y the Vital Few Xs.
Causing Changes and Vital Few Xs.
in Y. 2) Determine Optimal Tools:
Setting for the Vital Simulation
Tools: Few Xs.
Screening Design of 3) Perform Confirmation
Experiments (DOE) Runs.

Tools:
DOE, Factorial
Designs

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Defect / Variation Reduction Roadmap

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

10. Define and Validate 11. Determine 12. Implement

Measurem. System Process Capability Process Control

Deliverable: Deliverables: Deliverable:

Measurement System 1) Determine Post- Develop and
is Adequate to Improvement Implement Process
Measure Xs in the Capability and Control Plan
Actual Application Performance
2) Confirm that the Tools:
Tools: Improvement Goal FMEA

See Step 3 has been realized Poka-Yoke

5-S

Tools: Training / Certification

See Step 4 Stat. Process Control
Std. Work Processes

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 Example Process Map
Operator loads 1 lot into 2nd
lapping machine & starts the NV
KPIVs A
machine for 1st part of cycle
Dimension of balls
Hardness of balls
Op. assures proper ball feed

Machine is lapping balls

Cleanliness balls NV
A
Lot size
Type of Bakelite wheel Data Op. checks ball diameter
NV
A
Condition of wheel
KPOVs
Type of Bakelite plate Op. sets machine for 2nd part of cycle N
VA Diameter of balls
Condition of plate
Distribution of
Type of coolant Data Op. checks ball diameter
NV diameter
Coolant Temperature VA A
Ovality of balls
Dilution of coolant Data Op. checks ball diameter
NV Waviness of balls
Pollution of coolant A
Surface of balls
Amount of coolant
Op. measures distribution of ball dia N Cleanliness of balls
Type of approach plate VA
Condition of approach plate
Type of exit chute Op. stops the machine NV r
A
s ni ce o
Condition of exit chute a
Op. measures ovality & t he map ant,
Pressure k e o u w
Ma y
RPMs
waviness and checks surface N
VA u gly as that the ss!
as is ro
Elapsed time
Data & cleanliness of balls
p o rtant omes ac
im c
m e s sage
Op. unloads the machine NV
A

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 Correlation and Regression

These tools are utilized to characterize the process, that is, to understand
the behavior of process outputs (Y) given specific values of inputs (X).
This type of study investigates the process in its natural operating state
(no artificially induced variation, such as with Design of Experiments).

Correlation provides a graphical analysis and mathematical tool with

which we can quantify the degree or extent of the relationship between
two variables.
The degree of linear association between two variables is quantified by the
correlation coefficient r.

Regression can be used as a means of obtaining prediction equations (not

necessarily linear).
These equations can be used to predict the output variable (Y) based on a
certain input variable (X).

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Example Correlation and Regression

Temperature and Ice Cream Sales have a strong Correlation

Rainfall and Ice Cream Sales have a weak Correlation

A Regression Model can be built between Temp and Sales:

The regression equation is
Ice Cream Sales = - 3850 + (191 * Weekly Temperature)

Scatterplot of Ice Cream Sales vs Weekly Temperature Scatterplot of Ice Cream Sales vs Weekly Rainfall
16000 16000

14000 14000

12000 12000

Ice Cream Sales

Ice Cream Sales

10000 10000

8000 8000

6000 6000

4000 4000

2000 2000

0 0
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0.0035 0.0040 0.0045 0.0050 0.0055 0.0060 0.0065
Weekly Temperature Weekly Rainfall
 Multivariate Analysis

Multivariate is a graphical tool, which through logical sub-

grouping allows the analysis of input effects on process outputs.
Data is collected while the process is in its natural state.
The goal of this analysis is to narrow the field of the trivial many
inputs, to only the critical few.

Categories of sub-groups are typically as follows:

Positional: variation within a part
Cyclical: variation between parts
Temporal: variation over time

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Different Components of Variation
Positional variation (on the same part):
Variation within a part
A Variation within a batch or set-up
Variation within machine position
B Variation in measurement system

Cyclical variation (repeating pattern):

Different process settings or adjustments by operator or shift
Material differences Supplier changes
1 2 Tool or machine wear and repair or replacement
C D
Sorting practices
Maintenance schedule

Temporal variation (over time):

Day to Day or Week to Week output from a process
Set-up to Set-up for machines or jigs
now later Shift to Shift
E F Season to Season (due to temperature or humidity)

Taking the total process variation apart into its components is essential to
understanding and prioritizing the elimination of significant sources and
controlling those that remain.

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 Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing allows us to answer the practical question: "Is

there a real or significant difference between process #1 and process
#2, or output from scenario #1 and output from scenario #2 such that
the difference is too large to be attributed to chance?

The following examples illustrate some potential uses of this test:

Is there a real difference between Machine A and Machine B?
Is there a relationship between the number of defective parts and the
manufacturing method?
Does a particular gage create more or less defects using a specific
test method?
Has the process change obtained the desired change in
performance?
Based on our sample, is the actual proportion of defective parts
consistent with the supplier's claim of 0.1%?

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Example Hypothesis Testing

Machine A Machine B
11.4329 8.1385 N Mean St. Dev.
12.4480 10.0835 Machine A 20 11.888 0.307
11.8542 16.3094 Machine B 20 10.32 3.53
11.4890 7.7275
12.5328 7.1933
11.7902 12.3426 Difference = (Machine A) - (Machine B)
11.8711 12.2819 95% CI for difference: (-0.09756, 3.22369)
11.7120 16.4145 T-Test of difference = 0 (vs. 0): T-Value = 1.97 P-Value = 0.064 DF = 19
11.7132 9.2918
11.6420 7.4546
11.9299 16.0162
12.0497 9.7891
11.7749 10.1473
11.9015 14.2649
12.1880 6.7127
12.1130 12.5284 Would you invest Money in changing from
12.0407 3.5586 Machine A to Machine B ?
12.0431 10.6715
11.9194 8.4894
11.3139 7.0822

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 ANOVA - Analysis of Variance

The basic idea of this procedure is to split the total variability of

the response variable (the variability of all observations) into
blocks that relate to different processes, suppliers, shifts, or input
categories, etc.

The analysis provides graphical as well as quantitative measures

of whether significant statistical differences exists between
process output for different input variables.

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Example Two-Way ANOVA

One Output, Cycle Time Two-way ANOVA: Cycle Time versus Process, Machine Operator
Two Factors, Process and Operator
Source DF SS MS F P
Process 2 211.985 105.993 9.20 0.015
Is there a difference in Processes? Machine Op 1 2.430 2.430 0.21 0.662
Is there a difference in Operators? Interaction 2 62.565 31.282 2.71 0.145
Error 6 69.160 11.527
Is there a significant Interaction? Total 11 346.140

S = 3.395 R-Sq = 80.02% R-Sq. (adj.) = 63.37%

Cycle Time Process Machine Operator

Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on
11.3 1 Mo Pooled St. Dev.
14.3 1 Mo Process Mean --+---------+---------+---------+-------
19.0 1 Larry 1 14.475 (-------*-------)
2 22.700 (-------*--------)
13.3 1 Larry 3 13.225 (-------*--------)
28.3 2 Mo --+---------+---------+---------+-------
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
22.6 2 Mo
22.3 2 Larry
17.6 2 Larry Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on
Machine Pooled St. Dev.
13.6 3 Mo Operator Mean -----+---------+---------+---------+----
8.0 3 Mo Larry 17.25 (----------------*----------------)
Mo 16.35 (----------------*----------------)
14.0 3 Larry -----+---------+---------+---------+----
17.3 3 Larry 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

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 Design of Experiments (DOE)

In general, DOE is a controlled, active variation of a process to

identify optimum settings or procedures for improved product
quality.
More specifically, it is a systematic method where a number of
factors (input variables) are changed simultaneously following a
predetermined pattern, in order to investigate main effects as well
as their interactions.

DOE allows for more information to be gained from less trial runs
than traditional one factor at a time experimentation methods.

Copyright NN, Inc. 2004 Company Confidential

 Six Sigma Roadmap, Summary

Phase Step Description Focus Tools Deliverables

Define A Identify Project KPOVs & KPIVs Project KPOVs & KPIVs
B Develop Team Charter Approved Charter
C Define Process Map Process Mapping High Level Process Map

Measure 1 Select KPOV Characteristics
2 Define Performance Standards
3 Measurement System Analysis
Y Customer, QFD, FMEA, Process Mapping, Cause Project Y
& Effect Diagram, Discrete vs. Continuous Data
Y Customer, Blueprints Performance Standard for
Project Y
Y Continuous Gage R&R, Test/Retest, Attribute R&R Data Collection Plan & MSE,
Data for Project Y

Analyze 4 Establish Process Capability
5 Define Performance Objectives
6 Identify Variation Sources
Y Basic statistics, Graphical Analysis, Sampling, Process Capability for Project Y
Continuous Zst / Zlt, Normality, Discrete Zst / Zlt
Y Team, Benchmarking Improvement Goal for Project Y
X Process Analysis, Graphical Analysis, Hypothesis Prioritized List of all Xs
Tests, Regression Analysis, ANOVA

Improve 7 Screen Potential Causes X DOE-Screening List of Vital Few Xs

8 Discover Variable Relationships X DOE, Factorial Designs Proposed Solution
9 Establish Operating Tolerances Y, X Simulation Piloted Solution

Control 10 Define & Validate Measurement Y, X Continuous Gage R&R, Test/Retest, Attribute R&R MSE
System on Xs in Actual Application
11 Determine Process Capability Y, X Basic statistics, Graphical Analysis, Sampling, Process Capability Y, X
Continuous Zst / Zlt, Normality, Discrete Zst / Zlt
12 Implement Process Control X FMEA, Poka-Yoke, 5-S,Training / Certification, Sustained Solution,
Stat. Process Control, Std. Work Processes Documentation

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