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EQUITIES DAILY

Equity Research • 21 July 2010

Index Value Change (%)


Danish Day Week Month YTD
OMX COPENHAGEN (OMXC20) 401 -1.1 % -2.3 % -4.8 % 19.2 %
US
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 10230 0.7 % -1.3 % -2 % -1.9 %
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2222 1.1 % -0.9 % -2.9 % -2.1 %
S&P 500 INDEX 1083 1.1 % -1.1 % -2.7 % -2.8 %
European
FTSE 100 5139 -0.2 % -2.5 % -3 % -5.1 %
DOW JONES EUROSTOXX 50 P
2627 -0.3 % -4 % -5.1 % -11.4 %
INDEX
DAX INDEX 5967 -0.7 % -3.6 % -5.2 % 0.2 %
OMX (STOCKHOLM) INDEX 1027 -0.5 % -3.2 % -3.1 % 7.9 %
Asian
NIKKEI 225 INDEX 9308 0.1 % -2.4 % -9.1 % -11.7 %
Other key figures
Publisher: Oil 77.44 1.2 % 0.4 % 0.3 % -2.4 %
Jyske Markets USD/DKK 5.78 0.1 % -1 % -4.2 % 10.2 %
Equities Source: Bloomberg - 21-07-2010.
Vestergade 8 -16
DK - 8600 Silkeborg
Yesterday’s market
Assisting Analyst: Yesterday’s common denominator for the leading equity indices in Europe and Asia was price declines.
Anders Friis Saxberg The Japanese NIKKEI index showed a decline of 1.15%. The German DAX index shed 0.69%. Still, the US
+45 89 89 70 07 indices went against this trend. S&P500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ closed up by 1.1%, 0.7% and 1.1%,
Anders.Friis.Saxberg
@jyskebank.dk respectively.

Translation: Down by 1.1%, the Danish OMXC20 index was no exception to the decline in the European markets. The
Translation Services four heavy shares of the index: AP Møller Mærsk, Novo Nordisk, Danske Bank and Carlsberg all lost
ground. Vestas, on the contrary, closed up by 0.9. The great loser of the day was William Demant
which was down by 5.2%.

DSV was one of the two shares of the OMXC20 index which closed in positive territory in yesterday’s
market. Up by 0.5%, the share slightly caught up with Monday’s fall of 2.3%.
The markets were generally dominated by jitters and ”holiday mode”. This is also the case with respect
to news. We only see very scarce business-related news, and the news which is released is primarily of
a negative nature. IBM as well as Texas Instruments disappointed their investors with the release of
weak accounts. The US bank Goldman Sachs’ weak accounts followed the trend which was on Friday
initiated by the rival Citigroup.
Read more equity-
research reports on On Tuesday, the Swedish bank, Handelsbanken, published weak Q2 accounts. Especially interest
www.jyskemarkets.com/ income disappointed the markets. Consequently, the share reported a fall of 2.12%. Whether
Handelsbanken’s accounts can be seen as an indicator of the other Nordic banks is a question which
Disclaimer:
may partly be answered today, Wednesday, when Nordea’s Q2 accounts have been released.
Please see the last page
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 21 July 2010

Yesterday’s winners Yesterday’s losers


VESTAS WIND 0.9 % WILLIAM DEMANT -5.2 %
DSV A/S 0.5 % NKT HOLDING -2.4 %
TOPDANMARK A -0.1 % A. P. MØLLER - B -2.2 %
CARLSBERG-B -0.2 % A. P. MØLLER - A -2.1 %
TRYG A/S -0.2 % D/S NORDEN -1.8 %
SYDBANK -0.5 % H LUNDBECK A -1.7 %
DANISCO AS -0.6 % NORDEA BANK -1.4 %
FLSMIDTH & C -0.7 % NOVO NORDISK -1.2 %
JYSKE BANK-R -0.8 % Novozymes B -1.2 %
DANSKE BANK -1.0 % COLOPLAST-B -1.2 %

The market today


As mentioned earlier, Nordea today turned in its Q2 accounts. These accounts may be an indicator of
the other Nordic banks which will not release their accounts until later in the summer. Hence, the
focus of attention will today mainly be on the Nordic bank shares. Friday’s impending stress test may
in this connection contribute to higher jitters about these shares.

Outside Denmark, the focus of attention will be on Morgan Stanley and the softdrink producer Coca
Cola which will both publish their accounts today.
Also in the US, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Fed, will at 15:00 Danish time give his semi-annual
address on the monetary policy and the US economy.

Based on yesterday’s increases in the US markets as well as the DAX future, the Danish OMXC20
index is expected to start the day on a positive note.

EXPECTATIONS OF THE OPENING OF THE DANISH MARKET*

DAX Index Price DAX Future Price 30-day correlation

0.90%* 5,967.49 6,022.50 90%


*Note: Expectations of the opening of the Danish market have been estimated on the basis on indications by the DAX future index as to
the opening of the German market. The DAX future index opens one hour before the start of trading in the Danish market. The background
for using the German index instead of the Danish index is that there is low liquidity in the Danish futures market. Historically, there has
been a good correlation between the indicated opening of the Germany market and the opening of the Danish market. The table shows the
correlation between the return at 8.15 a.m. for the DAX future index and at 9.15 a.m. for the C20 index for the last 30 business days.

Source: Bloomberg and boerse-frankfurt.de 21.07.2010

ABB (BUY):
When ABB releases its accounts on Thursday, 22 July at 6.00 a.m, focus will very much be on the order
inflow and the development in the earnings margin. JB: We expect the order inflow to be approx. USD
7.5bn-8bn, i.e. a minor increase y/y. Compared to Q1 2010 we expect an increase in the earnings
margin to 11.8% from 10.2%. The increase will primarily take place through cost savings and due to the
fact that ABB will not have any extraordinary write-downs of project provisions as was the case in Q1.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation up to the announcement of the accounts.

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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 21 July 2010

Nokia (BUY):
Tomorrow at about 12 noon, Nokia will release its Q2 accounts; yet, the interest is not as high as already
back in June, Nokia chose to lower its expectations. JB: The focus at the release of the accounts will be on
the number of phones sold, the average price of these phones and the earnings margin in ”Devices &
Services”. Also, comments about the new Nokia N8, an important launch for Nokia in the smartphone
market, will attract attention. A high degree of interest in and a launch according to plans of this
phone will improve the product mix in Q3 and Q4 and boost earnings. We reiterate our BUY
recommendation for the Nokia share.

Nordea (REDUCE):
Solid accounts without any surprises Nordea’s Q2 accounts were practically in line with anticipations.
Net interest income rose a bit due to the decent growth in lending. JB: The interest-rate development
over the quarter surprised Nokia, and therefore the bank had to record a steep fall in earnings from
financial items at market value. On the bottom line, the result is a tad below our expectations and a
tad above consensus. We regard the accounts as satisfactory.

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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 21 July 2010

OMX C20 (30 days) Dow Jones (30 days)

430 10.600

420 10.400

410 10.200

400 10.000

390 9.800

380 9.600

370 9.400

360 9.200

S&P 500 (30 days) NIKKEI 225 (30 days)

1140,0
10.400
1120,0
10.200
1100,0
10.000
1080,0
9.800
1060,0
9.600
1040,0

1020,0 9.400

1000,0 9.200

980,0 9.000

960,0 8.800

8.600

DAX Index (30 days) Oil spot price (30 days)

6400,0 80

6300,0
78
6200,0

6100,0 76

6000,0
74
5900,0

5800,0 72

5700,0
70
5600,0

5500,0 68

Switch recommendation
Jyske Bank recommends the following switches:
From Genmab (REDUCE) to NeuroSearch (BUY).
From D/S Norden (REDUCE) and Torm (REDUCE) to A.P. Møller-Mærsk (ACCUMULATE)
From William Demant (REDUCE) and GN Great Nordic (REDUCE) to Coloplast (ACCUMULATE)
From Pfizer (SELL) to Sanofi-Aventis (BUY)
From Novo Nordisk (REDUCE) to Sanofi-Aventis (BUY) and Novozymes (BUY)
From FLSmidth (REDUCE) to NKT Holding (BUY)

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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 21 July 2010

Anticipated corporate news in our equity-research universe


Effect on share
Company Event
price*
Danish
Nordea Q2 accounts
*The effect on the share price is in the range of 1-5 with 5 showing a potential major effect on the share price.

Important accounts outside our equity-research universe


Company
US
Altria
EMC Corp.
United Technologies Corp.
Coca-Cola Co.
Abbott Laboratories
European
Glaxosmithkline Plc.
Iberdrola

Macroeconomic events
Time Event
US
15:00 USD The Chairman of the Fed’s semi-annual address on monetary policy and the US
economy.
European
10:30 GBP Minutes of MP meeting
Asian and others
06:30 JPY Activity index, industry

Yours faithfully,

JYSKE MARKETS
Jyske Bank
Equities

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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 21 July 2010

Disclaimer & Disclosure


Jyske Bank is subject to supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority.

Jyske Bank's analysts are subject to the recommendations of The Danish Securities Dealers Association on the handling of conflicts of interest in investment
banks.

The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material
nor for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be
changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied.

This report is an investment research report.

Conflicss of interest
Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner.
These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank.

Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in companies and papers for which they prepare research reports. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions,
have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. The
analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports.

Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at www.jyskebank.dk/terms

Jyske Bank's share recommendations - current allocation

Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number) Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number)
14 20
12
10 15
8
10
6
4 5
2
0 0
Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell

Source: Jyske Bank Source: Jyske Bank


Financial models
Jyske Bank employs one or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend model to determine the
fundamental value of a company. The fundamental value is compared to a relative valuation based on multiples such as P/E and EV/EBITA. The
recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment based on knowledge of the industry and
company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank’s recommendations take into account the expected development in the equity market, the various sectors and
company-specific circumstances.

Risk
Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the
price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of
sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor’s base currency, the
investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades.

Update of the research report


The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company’s financial statements.
See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report.
All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated.

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EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 21 July 2010
Recommendation Return relative to the performance of the
general equity market
BUY >5%
ACCUMULATE 0 to 5%
NEUTRAL 0%
REDUCE 0 to -5%
SELL < -5%
Source: Jyske Bank

Share recommendation concepts


Our recommendations are relative to the market development and are based on an evaluation of the forecast return within the coming 12 months. The forecast
return is the difference between the current price and our 12-month price target (the price target includes the projected dividend). A positive recommendation
(BUY or ACCUMULATE) is based on expectations that an investment in the share will yield a return above the general equity market. On the other hand, a
negative recommendation (REDUCE or SELL) implies that we expect an investment in the share to yield a return below the general equity market.

Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the
potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation is the anchor. A BUY recommendation is
a BUY recommendation until the recommendation has been changed, also in the event that price increases have taken the price "too close" to the price target.

The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs since returns after costs depend on a number of factors
relating to individual customer relations, custodian charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and product-specific factors. It is not certain that the
share will yield the stated expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively express our best assessment.