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B.C.

TRACKING - APRIL 29-MAY 1, 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM PST, MAY 3, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology About Mainstreet
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of With 20 years of political experience at all three
1,650 British Columbians from April 29 - May 1, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2017 through Chimera IVR. Respondents were Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
screened to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and public aairs.
Cell lines were included. Responses were weighed
using demographic information to targets based Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
on the 2011 Census. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The margin of error for survey results is 2.41 government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater government in British Columbia and a majority
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For been the most accurate polling rm in several by
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
error is 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is 4.64 the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Note: with only a small number of candidates Contact Information


registered, the BC Conservatives have now been
dropped from B.C. tracking surveys in keeping In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
with Mainstreets polling standards. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice


President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President


joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:


www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
LIBERALS MAKE GAINS, BUT NDP STILL LEADS IN LOWER MAINLAND

May 3, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the BC Liberals making gains, but the
NDP continues to lead in the Lower Mainland. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/-
2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Following the debate the Liberals have made up ground, primarily outside the lower mainland and
Vancouver Island said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Our debate poll found higher
negatives for John Horgan in the interior and the north and now we are seeing the eects.

Despite the Liberals gaining, the NDP now nd themselves leading on Vancouver Island where they had
been trailing the Greens for weeks. John Horgan now has a higher favourability on Vancouver Island than
Green Leader Andrew Weaver.

Among all voters: 31% Liberal (+4), 35% NDP (-1), 17% Green (+1), 18% Undecided (-3)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 37% Liberal (+3), 42% NDP (-2), 21% Green (-1)

For the Greens there is good news and bad news. The bad news: their vote strength is falling with more
Green voters now saying they may change their minds. The good news: despite regional uctuations, the
Greens are still holding their own at 21%. Whether they can win new seats with these numbers will depend
on how concentrated their vote is and whether their local campaigns can punch above their weight.

As the race tightens, the NDP must defend their lead in the lower mainland if they are to have a chance at
forming government. The Greens continue to be a problem for them on Vancouver Island, and if the race
tightens up a few more points in the lower mainland, Liberal incumbents will once again be within reach of
re-election.

The backdrop to all this is voters still dont like Christy Clark. John Horgans negatives have risen faster
than his positives leaving him with a bare +1 net approval score. While voters have good impressions of
Andrew Weaver - not enough of them may vote for his party on election day in a concentrated enough
manner for a large number of new seats. It is an election of contradictions and today we cannot not predict
how this one ends, nished Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca


David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Decided & Leaning Voters

The Liberals have made major gains over last week


in the Interior and North. Before we found a tie,
now the Liberals lead by 16 percentage points -
enough to guarantee re-election for every
incumbent and enough to put the NDP on their
heels in held seats.

Election campaigns are not held in stasis. Its


possible for the trend towards the Liberals to
continue or be sharply reversed. Either way, it is
dicult to tell what kind of election result we
would nd even with the numbers on hand today.

Local campaigns can make the dierence and the


Liberals have the benet of incumbents and well
funded star candidates in a number of Lower
Mainland seats. They are almost certainly going to
outperform the regional number. The only
question is, by how much? And will it be enough?
Race Tightens
As the race heads towards the nish line, we nd The math was always hard for an NDP majority
the electorate trending towards the Liberals. government, and that is likely out of reach, but
whether we see an NDP minority, Liberal minority
For now, the NDP can take solace that they are or Liberal majority may come down to 10,000
protecting their gains in the Lower Mainland, but if votes scattered across a half a dozen ridings.
those numbers begin to slip it is game over.
There is still time for movement in all three
There just are not enough seats on Vancouver directions. Events happen and voters will react, but
Island for the NDP to form government - not that for now heres what we dont know: how this will
those seats can be counted upon, anyways. Even end.
with the Greens in second place, they are at 32%,
which means the NDP will need to continue to There is one more Mainstreet poll to be elded and
look over their shoulder. released, so there will be one more snapshot
before Election Day. For the Liberals and NDP,
Worse, with the Greens at 32% the NDP is almost Victory is within reach. For the Greens, its possible
certain to face tight race where the Greens are to make major gains. Time is running out but there
elding strong local campaigns. is still time.
Among All Voters
LIBERAL NDP GREEN

STRONG SUPPORTERS

78% 83% 59%


(+5) (+13) (-8)

MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE

22% 17% 41%


SECOND CHOICES (NOT STRONG ONLY)

LIBERAL NDP GREEN

24% 24% 21%


(-17) (+8) (+14)

24% 51% 67%


(+4) (+1) (-7)

52% 25% 12%


(+12) (-8) (-7)
What They Think:
About the Leaders

Christy Clark
Favourable: 27 (+1)
Unfavourable: 58 (+2)
Not Sure: 12 (-5)
Not Familiar with: 3 (+2)

Net Disapproval: -31 (-1)

Better Premier John Horgan


British Columbians are split when we ask them who the better Premier would be. Favourable: 35 (+2)
Unfavourable: 34 (+6)
33% tell us Christy Clark, another 35% say John Horgan.
Not Sure: 26 (-5)
Not Familiar with: 6 (-2)
Only 13% say Andrew Weaver.
Net Approval: +1
In what could be foreshadowing of a late shift, 18% of Undecided voters tell us Clark
would make the better Premier, only 1% say the same of John Horgan.

Its a striking number that underpins the risk for the NDP. On the other hand, 80% of
undecided voters just dont know who the better premier would be.

For the Greens, these numbers paint an interesting portrait of their supporters. 26%
are not sure who the better Premier would be and only 50% say it would be Andrew
Weaver. 7% of Green Voters say they are not familiar with whom Andrew Weaver is.

Andrew Weaver
Favourable: 37 (+9)
Unfavourable: 22 (+2)
Not Sure: 29 (-10)
Not Familiar with: 12 (-2)

Net Approval: +15