Demonetization data: growth in digital transactions wasnt exponential

There was appreciable, but not exponential, growth in digital transactions, if data
from the Reserve Bank of India is to be believed. If you look at data Mobile Banking,
Debit and Credit card transactions (point of sale transactions only), Wallets / PPIs
(only for goods and services), IMPS, NEFT, USSD, UPI, NACH (National Automated
Clearing House), comparing the average transactions and amount-transacted per
day for the 29-30 day reported period in December, and the month of November,
growth in terms of volume of transactions was only 26.1%, and amount transacted
declined 5.9%.

The decline in average value of transactions per day was largely because of a
12.1% decline in value of NACH transactions, and excluding that, other modes of
payment showed growth; its just that growth in digital payments during a month
period when the government promoted its forced cashlessness was not
exponential.

1. Debit and Credit card transactions: during the month of December, judging
by data from point-of-sale transactions, an average of 9.9 million transactions per
day were over the reported 29 day period, around 43.9% higher than 6.9 million
transactions per day in November 2016. In total, over the 29 day period reported so
far, around 285.9 million debit and credit card transactions were executed at PoS
terminals.

In the same way, the amount transacted per day varied between Rs 1456 crore to
Rs 1907 crore, averaging at around 1648 crore per day. Average amount
transacted per day for the 29 days grew by 40.4% from 1174.5 crore per day
for the month of November 2016.

2. IMPS: In case of IMPS, the number of transactions reported for a 30 day period
ending 30th December 2016 was 47.2 million, averaging at around 1.6 million
transactions per day. This is around 30.4% higher than November 2016, where
around 1.2 million transactions per day were reported (around 36.2 million in total).
Amount transacted increased much less: to around 380.6 million for the 30 day
period reported, as compared to 324.8 million for the month of November. An
average of 1268.8 crores were sent per day on an average, using IMPS, as
compared to Rs 1082.7 crore per day for the month of November 2016. A growth
of only 17.2%. Once again, the growth wasnt exponential. .

3. PPI/Wallets: Transactions using Prepaid Payments Instruments (Wallets), for

non-bank wallets, for goods and services (and not money transfer) grew from 59
million in November 2016 to 78.1 million for the 30 day period till December 2016.
Thats a 32.3% increase in transactions per day, to 2.6 million from 2 million.
Average amount transacted per day increased 43.8% to Rs 63.3 crore from Rs
44 crore.
4. UPI: There has been significant growth in UPI, but that is largely because it is
relatively new, as compared to other modes such as Debit and Credit Cards, IMPS
and Wallets.

Usage of UPI grew to 1.676 million transactions for the 30 day period till December
2016, from 0.287 million in November 2016. Thats a 483% increase in
transactions per day, to 0.056 million from 0.01 million. Average amount
transacted per day increased 550% to Rs 19.59 crore from Rs 3 crore. Its
important to remember that this growth is on a low base.

5. NEFT: An anomaly in the digital world, and NEFT remains shut on the weekends,
and appears to increase towards the turn of the month.

Average NEFT transactions per day grew 16.4% during the 30 day period ending
30th December 2016. Average transactions per day were 4.77 million, up from 4.1
million per day in November 2016. Amount transferred grew even less, up 8.7% to
Rs 319 crore per day, from Rs 293 crore per day.