below the three-year historical mean of 30x. That said, earnings growth Statistics
will remain solid at a 34% CAGR for 2017F-2018F. But at the current PE 52w high/low (IDR) 3,600/2,675
its fully priced in given slower-than-expected job-order realization. 3m avg turnover (USDm) 0.1
Also, its trading at a premium to the sector (Fig.5). D/G to HOLD. Free float (%) 31.0
Issued shares (m) 800
Market capitalisation IDR2.3T
2016 new contracts slightly less than expected
USD171M
ACST secured about IDR3.8t (+23% YoY) in new contracts in 2016, slightly Major shareholders:
less than our expectation of IDR4t. The private high-rise segment Karya Surya Perkasa 40.0%
contributed most of the new projects for ACST in 2016. The most recent Cross plus Indonesia 16.5%
Loka Cipta Kreasi 11.8%
project won by ACST is the IDR1.8t contract for Indonesia 1 building. The
disappointment in 2016 was there were no sizeable infrastructure
Indonesia
Price Performance
projects and the absence of large projects from the Astra group. 5,500 210
5,000 190
Modest 2017; Focus remains on infrastructure 4,500 170
For 2017, we have lowered our new contract target from IDR4.8t to 4,000 150
IDR4.5t (+18% YoY). Management has not disclosed details of the new
3,500 130
projects for 2017, but we are likely to start to see more infrastructure
3,000 110
project awards this year. Projects that ACST is mostly likely to secure is
the Jakarta Cikampek elevated toll road, the Serpong Balaraja toll 2,500 90
road, and civil works for a 2GW power plant. Construction value has not 2,000 70
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
been revealed, but the investment value exceeds IDR50t. Acset Indonusa - (LHS, IDR)
Acset Indonusa / Jakarta Composite Index - (RHS, %)
Pandu Anugrah
pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
(62) 21 8066 8688
Figure 1: ACSTs order book and revenue Figure 2: ACSTs revenue growth & % of order book
IDRb % %
(x)
10,000 4.5 60 60
9,000 4.0
50 50
8,000 3.5
7,000 3.0 40 40
6,000
2.5
5,000 30 30
2.0
4,000
1.5 20 20
3,000
2,000 1.0 10 10
1,000 0.5
0 0.0 0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Order book (LHS) Revenue (LHS) Order book to revenue (RHS) Revenue growth (LHS) Revenue as % of total order book (RHS)
Figure 3: ACSTs order book and backlog to revenue at new Figure 4: ACSTs quarterly gross margin has normalized at
record high, but management is likely to manage execution 16% but it may contract slightly due to higher exposure to
prudently to ensure more sustainable growth infrastructure projects
x %
4.5 25 23.0
3.9 4.0
4.0 20.2
3.5 3.1
20 18.4
16.8 16.5 16.8
2.8 2.8 15.7 16.0 16.1
3.0 15.1
2.4 15 13.6
2.5 2.1 2.0
1.8
2.0 1.6
10
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.0 1.3 1.4 5
1.2
0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8
0.6
- 0.4 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Figure 5: ACST is trading at a premium to the sector Figure 6: ACST is trading 1SD below its historical mean
x x
30 60.0
25 50.0
20 40.0
15 30.0
10 20.0
5 10.0
0 0.0
PTPP ADHI WSKT WIKA TOTL NRCA IDPR ACST
2017 PE valuation
Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Maybank Kim Eng Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng
-400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F -100
Source: Company
DuPont analysis
Net profit margin (%) 7.7 3.1 4.2 3.9 3.9
Revenue/Assets (x) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8
Assets/Equity (x) 2.3 2.9 2.2 2.4 2.8
ROAE (%) 17.4 6.4 7.2 6.9 8.9
ROAA (%) 7.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.4
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4,000.0
3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17
Acset Indonusa
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
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applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
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