TOTAL HOUSEHOLD

YEAR CALAMBA CABUYAO

POPULATION

2012 94,451 66,870 161,321

2013 97,598 72,772 170,370
2014 100,808 79,195 180,003
2015 104,145 86,185 190,330
2016 107,554 94,139 201,693
TOTAL 504,556 399,161 903,717
 Total Number of Annual
% user of Total number of
Year populations in frequency of
Pie actual user
Calamba, Cabuyao use per (Box)

2012 161,321 58% 93,566 24

2013 170,370 58% 98,815 24
2014 180,003 58% 104,402 24
2015 190,330 58% 110,391 24
2016 201,693 58% 116,982 24
TOTAL 903,717 524,156
Historical Demand

2,245,588
2,371,550
2,505,642
2,649,394
2,807,567
12,579,740.64
 Arithmetic Straight Line
Table 2.1 Historical Values for Demand using Arithmetic Straight Line
Year Y A + Yi-1 =
2012 2,245,588 +
2013 2,371,550 140,494.56 + 2,245,588 =
2014 2,505,642 140,494.56 + 2,371,550 =
2015 2,649,394 140,494.56 + 2,505,642 =
2016 2,807,567 140,494.56 + 2,649,394 =
Total 12,579,741
ght Line
Computation:
Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc) 2
a =

2,386,083 -14,532 211,192,974.950

2,512,045 -6,403 41,000,970.240
2,646,136 3,257 10,609,872.998 a =
2,789,888 17,678 312,525,826.560
575,329,645 SD =

=
SD =
 Table 2.2 Projected Values of Demand using
Yn - Yc Year A
N - 1 2017 140,494.56
2,807,567 - 2,245,588 2018 140,494.56
5 - 1 2019 140,494.56
140,494.56 2020 140,494.56
2021 140,494.56
575,329,645
5
115,065,928.95
10,726.88
cted Values of Demand using Arithmetic S
Yi-1 YC
2,245,588 2,386,083
2,386,083 2,526,577
2,526,577 2,667,072
2,667,072 2,807,567
2,807,567 2,948,061
 Arithmetic Geometric Curv
Table 2.3 Historical Values of Demand using Arithmetic Geometric Curve

% Increase
Year Y Yi+1 (1+r) =
(decrease)

2012 2,245,588 2,371,550.40 1.00 =

2013 2,371,550 5.61 2,505,641.76 1.00 =
2014 2,505,642 5.65 2,649,393.60 1.00 =
2015 2,649,394 5.74 2,807,566.56 1.00 =
2016 2,807,567 5.97
Total
Geometric Curve

Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)2

2,371,550.40 -125,962.08 15,866,445,597.93

2,505,641.76 -134,091.36 17,980,492,826.65
2,649,393.60 -143,751.84 20,664,591,503.39
2,807,566.56 -158,172.96 25,018,685,275.16
0
79,530,215,203
Computation

2012
% = 2,371,550 - 2,245,588
[ ] 100
2,245,588
% = 5.61

2013
% = 2,505,642 - 2,371,550
[ ] 100
2,371,550
% = 5.65
2014
% = 2,649,394 - 2,505,642
[ ] 100
2,505,642
% = 5.74
2015
% = 2,807,567 - 2,649,394
[ ] 100
2,649,394
% = 5.97
(l+r) = % Increase
[ ] 100 ] + 1
N-1
= 0.00
[ ] 100 ] + 1
5-1
(l+r) = 1.00

79,530,215,203
=
5
= 15,906,043,041
= 126,119.16

1
Table 2.4 Projected Values of Demand Using Arithmetic Geometric
Year Yi-1 x (l+r) YC
2017 2,807,567 x 1.00 2,807,567
2018 2,807,567 x 1.00 2,807,567
2019 2,807,567 x 1.00 2,807,567
2020 2,807,567 x 1.00 2,807,567
2021 2,807,567 x 1.00 2,807,567
 Statistical Straight Line

Table 2.5 Historical Values of Demand using Statistical Straight Line

Year Y X X2 XY a

2012 2,245,588 1 1 2,245,588 2,095,408.22

2013 2,371,550 2 4 4,743,101 2,095,408.22
2014 2,505,642 3 9 7,516,925 2,095,408.22
2015 2,649,394 4 16 10,597,574 2,095,408.22
2016 2,807,567 5 25 14,037,833 2,095,408.22
Total 12,579,741 15 55 39,141,022
stical Straight Line

+ b (X) Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)

+ 140,179.97 1 2,235,588 10,000 100,002,560

+ 140,179.97 2 2,375,768 -4,218 17,789,499
+ 140,179.97 3 2,515,948 -10,306 106,221,221
+ 140,179.97 4 2,656,128 -6,734 45,353,436
+ 140,179.97 5 2,796,308 11,258 126,753,732
= 396,120,449
Computations:
a = Y -b X
n n
b = n XY - X
n X2 - (X)2
b = ( 5 ) ( 39,141,022 ) ( 15 ) ( 12,579,741 )
5(55) - (15)2
b = 7,008,998
50
b = 140,179.97
 a = 12,579,741
5
= 2,515,948
= 2,515,948
a = 2,095,408

Table 2.6 Projected Value of Demand Using Statistical Straight Line

Year A + B (X)
2017 2,095,408 + 140,180 6
2018 2,095,408 + 140,180 7
2019 2,095,408 + 140,180 8
2020 2,095,408 + 140,180 9
2021 2,095,408 + 140,180 10
 -140,179.97 15
(
5
-140,179.97 ( 3
-420,539.90

ical Straight Line

Yc
2,936,488
3,076,668
3,216,848
3,357,028
3,497,208
 396,120,449.34
) SD =
5
) = 79,224,089.87
SD = 8,900.79
Table 2.7 Histotical Values of Demand using Statistical Parabolic
Year Y X X X XY
2012 2,245,588 -2 4 16 -4,491,177
2013 2,371,550 -1 1 1 -2,371,550
2014 2,505,642 0 0 0 0
2015 2,649,394 1 1 1 2,649,394
2016 2,807,567 2 4 16 5,615,133
Total 12,579,741 0 10 34 1,401,800
lic
XY a + b x +
8,982,353 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( -2 ) + (
2,371,550 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( -1 ) + (
0 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 0 ) + (
2,649,394 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 1 ) + (
11,230,266 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 2 ) + (
25,233,564
 c X = Yc Y-Yc
5,292 ) ( 4 ) = 2,309,670 -64,082
5,292 ) ( 1 ) = 2,370,477 1,074
5,292 ) ( 0 ) = 2,505,365 277
5,292 ) ( 1 ) = 2,650,837 -1,443
5,292 ) ( 4 ) = 2,870,390 -62,824
 (Y-Yc)
4,106,517,078
1,153,108
76,623
2,081,982
3,946,822,810 Computation :
8,056,651,602 a = ( X) ( Y) - ( X) ( XY)
n ( X) - ( X)
a = ( 34 ) ( 12,579,741 ) - ( 10
( 5 ) ( 34 ) - ( 10 )
= 175,375,547
70
a = 2,505,365

c n ( XY) - ( X) ( Y)
n ( X) - ( X)
c = ( 5 ) ( 25,233,563.52 ) - ( 10
( 5 ) ( 34 ) - ( 10 )
= 370,411
70
c = 5,292
X) ( XY) b = XY
X) X
) ( 25,233,564 ) = 1,401,800
( 10 ) 10
b = 140,180

SD = / 8,056,651,602
5
) ( Y) = / 1,611,330,320
X) SD = 40,141
) ( 12,579,741 )
( 10 )
Table 2.8 Projected Values of Demand using Statistical Parabolic
Year a + b x +
2017 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 3 ) +
2018 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 4 ) +
2019 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 5 ) +
2020 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 6 ) +
2021 2,505,365 + 140,180 ( 7 ) +
Statistical Parabolic
c x = Yc
5,292 ( 3 ) = 2,973,529
5,292 ( 4 ) = 3,150,750
5,292 ( 5 ) = 3,338,555
5,292 ( 6 ) = 3,536,942
5,292 ( 7 ) = 3,745,913
 Historical Supply
Table 3. Historical Supply

ORIGINAL BUKO LETTY'S

Year COLETTE'S PIE EL MARIA PIE BUKO PIE
2012 32,900 57,807 22,090 48,472
2013 39,529 78,273 25,079 62,862
2014 47,124 108,051 28,135 82,068
2015 55,492 152,044 31,118 107,447
2016 64,389 218,838 33,916 140,805
Total 239,434 615,013 140,338 441,653

historical supply %
ORIGINAL BUKO LETTY'S BUKO
YEAR COLETTE'S PIE EL MARIA PIE PIE
2011 20% 35% 14% 30%
2012 19% 38% 12% 31%
2013 18% 41% 11% 31%
2014 16% 44% 9% 31%
2015 14% 48% 7% 31%
Total 17% 43% 10% 31%
HISTORICAL SUPPLY
163,281
205,742
265,378
346,102
457,948
1,438,451

HISTORICAL SUPPLY
99%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Table 3.1 Historical Values for supply using Arithmetic Straight Line
Year y a + Yi-1 =
2012 163,281 73,667
2013 205,742 73,667 + 163,281 =
2014 265,378 73,667 + 236,948 =
2015 346,102 73,667 + 310,615 =
2016 457,948 73,667 + 384,281 =
Total 1,438,451
 Yc Y-Yc (y-yc) Computation:
a = yn -yc
236,948 -31,206 973,813,638 n
310,615 -45,237 2,046,346,773
384,281 -38,179 1,457,661,155 = 457,948 -
457,948 0 0 5 -
4,477,821,566 a = 73,666.78
 Table 3.2 Projected Value
n -yc SD = / 4,477,821,566 Year
n 5 2017
= / 895,564,313 2018
163,281 SD = 29,926 2019
1 2020
2021
able 3.2 Projected Values of supply using Arithmetic Straight Line
A + Yi-1 = Yc
73,667 + 457,948 = 531,615
73,667 + 531,615 = 605,282
73,667 + 605,282 = 678,948
73,667 + 678,948 = 752,615
73,667 + 752,615 = 826,282
Table 3.3 Historical Values of supply using Arithmetic Geometric Curve
% Increase
Year Y Yi+1 (l+r) =
(Decrease)
2012 163,281 457,948 1.00 =
2013 205,742 26 457,948 1.00 =
2014 265,378 29 457,948 1.00 =
2015 346,102 30 457,948 1.00 =
2016 457,948 32
Total 1,438,451 118
 Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)
457,948 -294,667 86,828,712,387
457,948 -252,206 63,608,031,985
457,948 -192,570 37,083,253,125
457,948 -111,846 12,509,552,150

200,029,549,647
Computation:
2012 = 205,742 - 163,281
100
163,281

% = 26

2013 = 265,378 - 205,742

100
205,742

% = 29

2014 = 346,102 - 265,378

100
265,378

% = 30.4185038576

2015 = 457,948 - 346,102

100
346,102
% = 32.3159373031
 [ % Increase SD
(l+r) ] 100
N-1 + 1.00
[ 117.73
] 100
5 - 1 + 1.00
SD
(l+r) =
1.00
 Table 3.4 Projected Values of supply Using
Year
2017
2018
= / 200,029,549,647 2019
5 2020
= / 40,005,909,929 2021

= 200,015
3.4 Projected Values of supply Using Arithmetic Geometric Curve
Yi - 1 x (l+r) = Yc
457,948 x 1.00 = 457,948
457,948 x 1.00 = 457,948
457,948 x 1.00 = 457,948
457,948 x 1.00 = 457,948
457,948 x 1.00 = 457,948
Table 3.5 Historical Values of supply using Statistical Straight Line
Year Y x x xy a +
2012 163,281 1 1 163,281 68,782 +
2013 205,742 2 4 411,484 68,782 +
2014 265,378 3 9 796,134 68,782 +
2015 346,102 4 16 1,384,408 68,782 +
2016 457,948 5 25 2,289,741 68,782 +
Total 1,438,451 15 55 5,045,047
 b x = Yc Y-YC
72,969 ( 1 ) = 141,751 21,530
72,969 ( 2 ) = 214,721 -8,979
72,969 ( 3 ) = 287,690 -22,312
72,969 ( 4 ) = 360,660 -14,558
72,969 ( 5 ) = 433,629 24,319
 (Y-YC) Computation:
463,528,318 a = Y -
80,621,458 n
497,833,752
211,924,259 b = XY -
591,415,924 n X -
1,845,323,711
B X b = ( 5 ) 5,045,047 ( 15) 1,438,451 a =
n 5(55) - (15)
= 3,648,472 =
X Y 50
(X) b = 72,969 a =
1,438,451 (72,969.45) 15 SD =
( )
5 5
287,690 (72,969.45) 3 =
(218,908.34) SD =
68,782
 Table 3.6 Projected Values of supply using Statistical Stra
Year a +
1,845,323,710.92 2017 68,782 +
5 2018 68,782 +
369,064,742.18 2019 68,782 +
19,211.06 2020 68,782 +
2021 68,782 +
alues of supply using Statistical Straight Line
b ( X ) = Yc
72,969 ( 6 ) = 506,599
72,969 ( 7 ) = 579,568
72,969 ( 8 ) = 652,537
72,969 ( 9 ) = 725,507
72,969 ( 10 ) = 798,476
Table 3.7 Histotical Values of Supply using Statistical Parabolic
YEAR Y X X X XY
2012 163,281 -2 4 16 (326,562)
2013 205,742 -1 1 1 (205,742)
2014 265,378 0 0 0 -
2015 346,102 1 1 1 346,102
2016 457,948 2 4 16 915,896
Total 1,438,451 -2 10 34 729,694
 XY a + b ( x ) + c ( X
653,124 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( -2 ) + 11,418.46 ( 4
205,742 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( -1 ) + 11,418.46 ( 1
- 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 0 ) + 11,418.46 ( 0
346,102 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 1 ) + 11,418.46 ( 1
1,831,792 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 2 ) + 11,418.46 ( 4
3,036,760
) = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)
) = (629,971.58) 793,252.58 629,249,653,122.88
) = (326,404.25) 532,146.04 283,179,410,745.89
) = - 265,378.00 70,425,480,817.06
) = 349,241.17 - 3,139.16 9,854,314.37
) = 721,319.26 - 263,371.14 69,364,357,413.77
= 1,052,228,756,413.97
 )

computation:
a= ( X) ( Y) -
n( X) - ( X)
= ( 34 ) ( 1,438,451 ) - ( 10 ) (
( 5 ) ( 34 ) - ( 10 )
= 18,539,728.46
70
a = 264,853.26
 ( X)( XY) b = XY c = n ( XY) - ( X) ( Y)
X) X n ( X) - ( X)
3,036,760 ) = 729,694 =( 5) ( 3,036,760 ) - ( 10 ) (
( 10 ) 10 ( 5 ) ( 34 ) - ( 10 )
b = 72,969.45 = 799,292.23
70
c = 11,418.46
X) ( Y) SD = 1,052,228,756,413.97
( X) 5
1,438,451 ) = 210,445,751,282.79
- ( 10 ) SD = 458,744
Table 3.6 Projected Values of supply using Statistical Straight Line
YEAR a + b x + c X =
2017 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 3 ) + 11,418.46 ( 3 ) =
2018 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 4 ) + 11,418.46 ( 4 ) =
2019 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 5 ) + 11,418.46 ( 5 ) =
2020 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 6 ) + 11,418.46 ( 6 ) =
2021 264,853.26 + 72,969.45 ( 7 ) + 11,418.46 ( 7 ) =
 Yc
586,527.75
739,426.41
915,162.00
1,113,734.51
1,335,143.95
Table 3.9 Summary of Standard Diviation: Historical Supply
Arithmeric Straight Line 29,926
Arithmeric Geometric Curve 200,015
Statistical Straight Line 19,211
Statistical Parabolic 458,744

Table 2.9 Summary of Standard Diviation: Historical Demand

Arithmeric Straight Line 10,727
Arithmeric Geometric Curve 126,119
Statistical Straight Line 8,901
Statistical Parabolic 40,141
Table 2.6 Projected Value of Demand Using Statistical Straight Line
Year A + B
2017 2,095,408 + 140,180
2018 2,095,408 + 140,180
2019 2,095,408 + 140,180
2020 2,095,408 + 140,180
2021 2,095,408 + 140,180

Table 3.6 Projected Values of Supply using Statistical Straight Line

Year A + B
2017 68,782 + 72,969
2018 68,782 + 72,969
2019 68,782 + 72,969
2020 68,782 + 72,969
2021 68,782 + 72,969
 Table 4. Demand and Supplies Analysis
Straight Line PROJECTED
(X) = Yc YEAR DEMAND
6 = 2,936,488 2017 2,936,488
7 = 3,076,668 2018 3,076,668
8 = 3,216,848 2019 3,216,848
9 = 3,357,028 2020 3,357,028
10 = 3,497,208 2021 3,497,208

Straight Line Table 5. Market Share

(X) = Yc
6 = 506,599 UNSATISFIED
7 = 579,568 YEAR DEMAND
8 = 652,537 2017 2,429,890
9 = 725,507 2018 2,497,100
10 = 798,476 2019 2,564,311
2020 2,631,521
2021 2,698,732
upplies Analysis
UNSATISFIED
PROJECTED SUPPLY DEMAND
506,599 2,429,890
579,568 2,497,100
652,537 2,564,311
725,507 2,631,521
798,476 2,698,732

ACCEPTANCE PROJECTED MARKET

FACTOR DEMAND SHARE
58% 2,936,488 47.99%
58% 3,076,668 47.07%
58% 3,216,848 46.23%
58% 3,357,028 45.47%
58% 3,497,208 44.76%