Ms. Knight
AP Stats - 3
A friend of mine claims that he has ESP. ESP is a very rare circumstance where a person
has a extrasensory awareness and are speculated to be physic. Being that this is very rare, my
friend will demonstrate his supposedly ESP ability by passing out shuffled envelopes to ten
volunteers that has their names on cards and in indistinguishable envelops. The envelopes will
have to be handed back to each of the persons in order. There will be 20 trials conducted to see
Within the simulation the random digits 0-9 will represent the 10 volunteers. The random
sampling of numbers that are computer generated will represent the shuffled envelopes. The
random sample will be compared to a orderly pattern of 0-9 to represent the volunteers. The
response variable in this simulation will be the matches between ordered sequence and random
sequence. The more numbers that are matched in the sequence, makes it more likely to conclude
that my friend does in fact have ESP. (The results of this simulation can be viewed below.)
Based upon my results from the simulation conducted, it is fair to say that acquiring up to
three matches is normal from an average human being without ESP. Perhaps even four wouldn't
be unusual to achieve. The max number of matches was 3 and the minimum was 0. The
probability of matching all envelopes is .00036. In pursuance of believing my friend has ESP, he
would have to match 6 or more envelopes with the correct volunteer. Perhaps then his theory of
1 0, 2, 9, 7, 3, 5, 4, 1, 6, 8 1
2 5, 1, 3, 0, 2, 9, 7, 4, 6, 8 1
3 7, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, 1, 9, 2, 0 1
4 1, 7, 9, 5, 3, 2, 8, 0, 4, 6 0
5 2, 1, 6, 5, 0, 4, 3, 7, 8, 9 3
6 9, 0, 8, 7, 4, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 1
7 4, 7, 6, 3, 1, 9, 5, 8, 2, 0 1
8 6, 5, 2, 7, 4, 1, 9, 3, 8, 0 3
9 7, 6, 1, 8, 9, 2, 0, 4, 3, 5 0
10 5, 3, 7, 1, 0, 9, 2, 6, 4, 8 0
11 3, 2, 4, 0, 7, 5, 9, 8, 1, 6 0
12 7, 4, 6, 1, 3, 2, 8, 5, 9, 0 0
13 4, 6, 9, 3, 5, 0, 7, 1, 2, 8 1
14 7, 4, 8, 0, 6, 3, 5, 1, 9, 2 0
15 8, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 2, 0, 1, 5 0
16 0, 7, 1, 4, 9, 8, 2, 5, 6, 3 0
17 3, 0, 7, 4, 8, 9, 6, 5, 2, 1 1
18 7, 0, 9, 3, 6, 1, 4, 8, 2, 5 1
19 9, 1, 8, 4, 5, 6, 7, 2, 3, 0 1
20 0, 7, 5, 9, 3, 4, 2, 8, 6, 1 1