Australia-Japan Dialogue
US Primacy in the Asia-Pacific: Trends
and Policy Implications for the
Australia-Japan Relationship
Tokyo, December 9, 2016
o US primacy and a robust economic relationship with China will continue largely unchanged under
the existing regional order;
o An overt balance of power stand-off between China and a coalition of US allies will develop,
making conflict more likely;
o A pre-emptive accommodation of Chinas interests through the successful negotiation of a G-2
concert of powers;
o Chinese primacy will emerge in the event of a US drawdown in the region accompanied by a
bandwagoning to Beijing among the regions middle and minor powers.
Almost all countries would prefer the preservation of the US led regional order, but given Beijings recent
behaviour over Chinas maritime territorial claims and its emergence as a major strategic power, US
primacy is unlikely to go unchallenged. But Chinas capacity to mount a sustained challenge to US
leadership in Asia is also unclear, which adds further to ongoing debate over Chinas future course. As
indicated by the recent economic headwinds facing Beijing, Chinas growth trajectory is by no means
assured into the future and domestically the Communist Party is confronted by a variety of pressing
public policy challenges and the fragile nature of its political legitimacy.
The foundation of stability in the Asia-Pacific traditionally has been US military and economic power in
the region, in addition to confidence in Washington maintaining its commitment to the regions liberal
order. Ongoing US engagement is a priority for Australia and Japan, and also a major influence on how
their own relationship develops. Indeed, the spectre of a possible US drawdown in the Asia-Pacific - made
more worrying by Chinas aggressive posturing - already is encouraging Australia and Japan to signal a
willingness to burden-share with the US. Unprecedented levels of US fiscal debt, a new administration in
Washington from January 2017, and persistent uncertainty over domestic US support for overseas
military commitments have also pushed Australian and Japanese governments to commit to increases in
defence spending and deeper defence cooperation with other US allies in the region. Donald Trumps
surprise election as US President in November, moreover, has created even greater concern and
speculation over future US policy in the region.
A key strategic concern for Australia and Japan, and other US alliance partners in the region, is the
strength of US resolve to effectively hedge against the emergence of a revisionist China and continue to
provide the public goods that so far have underwritten much of the Asia-Pacifics security and economic
prosperity. But a major question remains: rhetoric aside, how far should Australia and Japan be willing to
go in order to maintain the US commitment to the Asia-Pacific given their important economic
relationships with China and the potential for regional tensions to further escalate?
o Their evolving parallel alliances with the US and the potential for further cross-bracing;
o The depth of their shared commitment to the US led regional order in strategic and economic terms;
o And the degree to which Australia and Japan genuinely will continue to share overlapping interests
in their strategic outlooks over the coming years.
The major goals of this project are to better understand Australian and Japanese perceptions of US
primacy via the lens of their respective alliance relationships with the US; examine how these perceptions
shape Australia and Japans bilateral relationship; and to provide guidance on the options for ensuring both
regional stability and continued US engagement. The two central questions to be discussed at this years
Dialogue are:
1. How do Australian and Japanese policy perceptions of US primacy, in strategic and economic
terms, shape their respective views of the regional order in the Asia-Pacific?
2. Is Australia and Japans shared commitment to a US-led regional order likely to lead to a formal
security alliance?
Outcomes
The Griffith Asia institute will publish the Dialogue papers from each session (approx. 3,000 words) in a
single policy volume to be distributed to policy makers and think tanks/research institutes in Japan,
Australia, and the US. Michael Heazle and Andrew ONeil also will lead the preparation of an edited volume
compilation of substantially revised and expanded versions of the Dialogue papers. UK publisher Edward
Elgar already has expressed a strong interest in commissioning a book along these lines.
Session Structure
Each session will feature presentation of three written papers (15 mins each; discussion papers
approximately 3,000 words) followed by open discussion and contributions (approximately 45 mins,
including chairpersons remarks) from the audience and other panellists.
8:15-9:00 Registration
9:45-11:15 Session 1
Is US leadership/primacy declining in Asia?
In this session panellists will be asked to provide an assessment of the contemporary nature of US
leadership in the region and address the question of whether American primacy is declining or remains
largely unchanged. Panellists will be asked to summarise the various perspectives in their own countries
on these issues, in addition to outlining their own arguments. Key questions include: How central to
regional stability is continued US leadership/primacy in Asia? What are the key assumptions driving
discussion over American leadership in Japan, Australia and the US itself? How do strategic and economic
imperatives interact in these discussions?
11:30-13:00 Session 2
How robust is Asias alliance system?
This session focuses on the contemporary state of Americas alliances in Asia. For Japan and Australia, the
broader US alliance system promotes a foundation for regional stability while the parallel alliances they
have with Washington provide a degree of strategic reassurance they would not otherwise have.
Participants in this session will be asked to reflect in detail on how Americas Asian alliances are evolving,
what explains this evolution, and what they see as the key drivers of the Japan-US and Australia-US
alliances.
14:00-15:30 Session 3
Is a Japan-Australia alliance on the cards?
As security cooperation has between Japan and Australia has become increasingly intimate, speculation
has intensified that the two countries may be heading towards either a formal or informal security alliance.
In this session, panellists are asked to provide insights into what they see as the prospects for an alliance
between Australia and Japan, how this might develop over time, and what the implications would be for
both countries and the region more generally.
15:45-16:30 Session 4
Discussion, summary, and publication strategy
Chairs: Associate Professor Michael Heazle and Professor Andrew O'Neil
This closing session seeks to address the Dialogues two central questions by bringing together the
various strands of the days discussion and summarising the key arguments. It will also chart a course for
the policy volume and publications (an edited volume and/or collaboration among paper
givers/participants on refereed journal papers).
CLOSE
OPENING SPEAKERS
Dr Ian Hall
Director, Griffith Asia Institute
Ian Hall is the Director of the Griffith Asia Institute. His most recent
books include Dilemmas of Decline: British Intellectuals and World
Politics, 1945-1975 (2012) and The Engagement of India:
Strategies and Responses (2014). He is currently working on an
Australian Research Council funded project on Indian international
thought.
Mr Toshiro Iijima
Ambassador of Policy Planning and International Security
Policy
Deputy Director-General, Foreign Policy Bureau, Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, Japan
Mr Bassim Blazey
Minister-Counsellor, Australian Embassy, Tokyo
KEYNOTE SPEAKER
Ambassador Shingo Yamagami
Director-General (Acting), Japan Institute of International
Affairs
Sheryn Lee
Macquarie University
Dr Van Jackson
Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies
Dr Mira Rapp-Hooper
Center for a New American Security
Mr Ryosuke Hanada
Research Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs
Dr Zack Cooper
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Zack Cooper is a fellow with the Asia team at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies (CSIS). Dr. Cooper focuses on Asian security
issues and has coauthored or coedited numerous studies, including
Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and
Partnerships; The ANZUS Alliance in an Ascending Asia; Federated
Defense in Asia; Assessing the Asia-Pacific Rebalance; and
Strategic Japan: New Approaches to Foreign Policy and the U.S.-
Japan Alliance. His research has also appeared in Security Studies, the
Washington Quarterly, the National Interest, and International
Security, and he works closely with the CSIS Asia Maritime
Transparency Initiative. Prior to joining CSIS, Dr. Cooper worked as a
research fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments. He previously served on the White House staff as
assistant to the deputy national security adviser for combating
terrorism. He also worked as a civil servant in the Pentagon, first as a
foreign affairs specialist and then as a special assistant to the principal
deputy under secretary of defense for policy. He received a B.A. from
Stanford University and an M.P.A., M.A., and Ph.D. from Princeton
University, where he studied how leaders alter national defense
policies in response to changing perceptions of relative power.
ATTENDEE LIST (in alphabetical order)
o Mr Bassim Blazey, Minister-Counsellor, Australian Embassy, Tokyo, Japan
o Dr Van Jackson, Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies, United States of America
o Dr Mira Rapp-Hooper, Center for a New American Security, United States of America
Affairs, Japan
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