Forecast Report
4Q 2013
Jakarta
1st Quarter
| Office
2015
Accelerating success.
Highlights
Office Sector increasing number of new stores by retailers already doing
business here. Upper-class shopping centers are generally
A substantial amount of new office space of around 600,000 sq m enjoying high occupancy while on the contrary, middle-low
is projected to come on the market this year in the CBD. This will class shopping centers experienced a moderate decline in
be the historic high annual supply. Given the immense supply, occupancy. Similarly, only upper class shopping malls registered
the occupancy rate in the CBD should drop by the end of the year a QoQ growth in rents of 3.4% to IDR921,237/sq m/month.
which will most likely put downward pressure on rents. The
annual growth of average rents for grade A and premium
buildings has already been reduced from 33.6% in 2013 to only Hotel Sector
3.9% in 2014 for rupiah denominated buildings. In the same Jakarta is anticipating additional rooms from the operation of 39
period, the growth of average rental rate for buildings quoting US new hotels providing 6,963 rooms during 2015 2018. The new
dollars was 23.7% in 2013 and rents even dropped by -0.6% in supply during that period represents 21.3% of the cumulative
2014 and even further decreased by -1.1% in 1Q 2015. hotel rooms as at the end of 2014. The YoY occupancy
performance of hotels in Jakarta was down from 64.3% to 53.7%
Apartment Sector mainly because of the high hotel room usage for political
activities during election campaigning during the early months
The wait and see attitude caused by national elections in 2014 in 2014. However, the increased demand was offset by a new
and a slowing economy as a result of the strengthening US dollar regulation that banned governments civil servants for holding
against local currencies in the Asia Pacific region reduced the meetings in hotels. This new government policy was subsequently
growth rate of apartment supply last year. With only half of the reversed in early April 2015. Likewise, the overall ADR (Average
total projected supply in 2014 being materialized (around 10,000 Daily Rate) was also down YoY, from USD98.15 to USD94.09.
units), 2015 will become a tougher market as 29,451 units are
projected to be completed. As a result of the softening apartment
market, prices of apartments only climbed modestly by 2.7% Industrial Estate Sector
QoQ slightly lower than in the previous quarter of 3.1%. There were no significant change in the industrial market, but
Meanwhile, the absorption rate of future apartment projects was 82.18 hectares of land which were transacted this quarter has
down by 3.7% to 68.4% QoQ. already equaled 26% of last years total sales. This suggests that
the industrial market has been on track to follow sales trends of
Retail Sector 2013 and 2014. As it was seen in the last period of 2014, the
overall sales during the quarter were dominated by transactions
The occupancy rate of the retail sector in Jakarta has been with consumer goods and logistics companies. Several industrial
stabilizing and grew to 86.8% in 1Q 2015, thanks to the retail estates with limited land still continue to introduce new higher
moratorium in DKI Jakarta which limits the issuance of permits prices, but prices in general are flat.
for new shopping centers. Going forward, the retail market is
anticipating the entrance of new foreign retailers and an
Apart from the continued influx of new office space, there will
a reduction in the total office space. Two office buildings in
Supply Sudirman are being demolished as of 1Q 2015. Jalan Sudirman,
as the main thoroughfare in the CBD, is undergoing a mega-MRT
CBD Office Cumulative Supply project to alleviate worsening traffic problems, particularly in the
commercial area. With the MRT project, DKI Jakarta Government
8,000,000 allow land owners along the MRT route for higher plot ratio, With
very expensive land prices in the area and given the higher plot
7,000,000 ratio, several old buildings are being considered for demolition
and replaced with taller office buildings. By eliminating these
6,000,000
two office buildings, the cumulative office supply only grew 2.9%
5,000,000 YoY to 4.78 million sq m as of 1Q 2015.
sq m
4,000,000 In the CBD, except Jalan Thamrin, all sub-markets will contribute
new office buildings in 2015. Jalan Sudirman will lead in terms of
3,000,000 both number of office buildings (with three office buildings) and
area of office space (43% of annual supply in 2015). Gatot Subroto
2,000,000
is one active sub-market with additional space of 130,000 sq m
1,000,000 from two office buildings in 2015.
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2019F
2015F
2018F
2016F
2015YTD
86,000 sq m. This indicates that the higher plot ratio in this main
corridor of the CBD has been implemented. Sahid Sudirman
Existing Supply Annual Supply tower (258 m in height), is the second tallest office building in
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Jakarta after Wisma 46 (261.5 m in height). Sinarmas MSIG, a
future office building in Sudirman, will also be included in the
CBD Office Cumulative Supply Based on Area five tallest office buildings in Jakarta. Later, Jakarta will see an
office building with 70 levels situated around Jalan Thamrin that
8,000,000 is expected to be in operation in 2018.
7,000,000 Of all of the projected office buildings in 2015 - 2019, about 75% of
the 2.9 million sq m have started construction work. This means
6,000,000 that only 12 office buildings representing 816,500 sq m are still
in the planning stage as of 1Q 2015. Including newly operating
5,000,000
office buildings in 2015, the CBD will see around 500,000 sq m of
sq m
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2019F
2015F
2018F
2016F
2015YTD
0 300,000
150,000
additional supply of offices for lease will still dominate both
under-construction and in-planning projects. Excluding in-
planning projects, the total future additional space of offices for 100,000
lease in 2015 - 2019 is 1.23 million sq m with about 0.87 million
sq m of offices for sale.
50,000
500,000
0
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2019F
2015F
2018F
2016F
2015YTD
600,000 4,000,000
3,500,000
400,000
3,000,000
200,000
2,500,000
sq m
0 2,000,000
2010
2012
2017F
2014
2011
2013
2015F
2016F
2018F
2015YTD
1,500,000
1,000,000
Existing Supply Annual Supply
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research 500,000
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015F
2018F
2016F
2015YTD
currently contributing more office space. As of this quarter,
four newly operating office buildings in South Jakarta are Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang TB Simatupang
located in TB Simatupang and this is equal to the office supply Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
in 2014. The four office buildings located in the southern part
of TB Simatupang, are 18 Office Park, Plaza Oleos, AD Premier
and Metropolitan Tower. Together, these buildings contributed Annual Supply in the Outside CBD and TB Simatupang
142,678 sq m to bring the cumulative supply in TB Simatupang
to 739,343 sq m as of 1Q 2015. Another three office buildings in 300,000
TB Simatupang are projected to open in 2015, namely South
Quarter 1 and 2, and Graha MRA. These office buildings have 250,000
reached final stages of construction and are expected to bring
additional new office space of 237,234 sq m by the end of 2015,
200,000
almost three times the additional supply in 2014.
sq m
250,000 100,000
50,000
200,000
0
150,000
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2019F
2015F
2018F
2016F
2015YTD
sq m
50,000
0
2015F 2016F 2017F
CBD
continuation
TB SIMATUPANG
88%
Number of Space Absorbed and Occupancy in the
84%
CBD
80%
5,000,000 100%
76%
4,500,000 90%
72%
4,000,000 80%
68%
3,500,000 70%
64%
3,000,000 60%
2,500,000 50% 60%
sq m
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
3,000,000 100%
90%
2,500,000
2016F 80%
70%
2,000,000
60%
sq m
1,500,000 50%
40%
1,000,000
2015F 30%
20%
500,000
10%
0 0%
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
2010 2012 2014
sq m
Space Absorbed Vacant Space Space Absorbed Vacant Space Occupancy
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2016F
The occupancy rates in the outside CBD showed a similar trend
to the CBD, declining 2.3% QoQ to 90.9% as of 1Q 2015. Large
vacant spaces were largely contributed by office buildings
in South Jakarta. As of 1Q 2015, 62.1% of the 233,921 sq m of
remaining space in the outside CBD was in South Jakarta. Of
that, 72.9% was found at newly operating office buildings in 2014
- 2015.
2015F
The occupancy rates of office buildings in South Jakarta, which
was recorded at 88.9%, experienced a decreasing trend by 5.2%
QoQ. In other areas, the growth of occupancy was relatively flat
QoQ and only West Jakarta recorded an average occupancy of
90.7% as of 1Q 2015. The overall West Jakarta office market 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000
registered a vacant space reduction of around 20% QoQ. sq m
Officially operating committed tenants at new office buildings Space Absorbed Vacant Space
have helped the occupancy in West Jakarta climb 2% over the Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
previous quarter.
50%
between USD2.00 and 10.00 as of 1Q 2015. These adjustments
300,000
caused office rents to climb only modestly QoQ.
40%
Similar to buildings charging in US dollars, of the total vacant
200,000 30%
space supplied by office buildings charging rent in rupiah, 46.9%
20% is available at office buildings charging rent above the market
100,000 average rent. This resulted in a higher average rent in rupiah.
10%
The average asking rental rate for Premium office buildings only
was USD46.72/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015, down significantly
QoQ, 4.9%.
in Rupiah in Rupiah
IDR 300,000 IDR 600,000
IDR 550,000
IDR 450,000
IDR 350,000
IDR 250,000
IDR 150,000
IDR 50,000
IDR 0 IDR 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD Grade A Grade B Grade C
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
in US Dollar in US Dollar
USD 60.00 USD 60.00
USD 40.00
USD 40.00
USD 30.00
USD 30.00
USD 20.00
USD 20.00
USD 10.00
USD 10.00
USD 0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD USD 0.00
All Classes Premium Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
USD 20.00
USD 15.00
USD 10.00
USD 5.00
USD 0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
IDR 70,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 50,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 30,000
IDR 20,000
IDR 10,000
IDR 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
160,000
IDR 60,000,000
140,000
120,000
IDR 50,000,000
sq m
100,000
60,000
20,000
IDR 20,000,000 0
2011
2013
2008
2009
2015YTD
2010
2012
2014
IDR 10,000,000
CBD Outside CBD exclude TB Simatupang TB Simatupang Pre-Committed Demand of Future Strata-title Office
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
for Sale in the CBD
The CBD will see a large amount of additional office space for sale
in 2015 - 2018, starting with the operation of Gran Rubina and 2018F
Sahid Sudirman, which brought the cumulative supply of strata-
title offices in the CBD to 986,767 sq m as of 1Q 2015. At least
another 14 strata-title office buildings will provide 849,564 sq m
in the CBD up to 2018. The majority of office buildings are under 2017F
construction and are expected be completed as scheduled.
250,000
Concluding Thoughts
A more conducive political situation is expected to help
200,000
accelerate an increase in occupancy to catch up the projected
demand in the years ahead. More implemented government
150,000 programmes are expected to invite more investors to come and
sq m
100,000 Less absorption than projected QoQ will put pressure on asking
rents. This will likely cause a weakening of the average asking
rent, at least it will be relatively flat during 2015.
50,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
2017F
2016F
2015F
Units
and South Jakarta with 22 and 20%, respectively. Typically,
10,000
apartment development in West Jakarta is characterised by
massive unit projects targeting the middle-low income segment, 5,000
offering small units in order to make prices affordable. The units
of these apartment projects typically come with areas from 22 0
sq m for studio units to 70 - 80 sq m for 3-bedroom units. On
2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
the other hand, East Jakarta will see abundant new projects in
the next two to three years, mainly coming from two projects, i.e. CBD Central Jakarta South Jakarta
Green Signature and Bassura City, which are located in Cawang
North Jakarta East Jakarta West Jakarta
and Cipinang, respectively.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2015
2016
The Residence (CWJ 2) Jl. Prov Dr Satrio Kav 6, Kuningan CBD 119
The Orchad Satrio (CWJ 2) Jl. Prov Dr Satrio Kav 6, Kuningan CBD 349
Sudirman Suites Jl. Sudirman CBD 380
Gayanti City (2 Towers) Jl. Gatot Subroto CBD 318
T - Plaza Residence (Tower A) Jl. Penjernihan I Kav.1 Pejompongan Central Jakarta 307
Sentosa Residence Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 687
Sudirman Hill Residence Jl. Karet Pasar Baru Central Jakarta 255
The Green Pramuka (Tower Orchid) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
The Green Pramuka (Tower Penelope) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
The Green Pramuka (Tower Scarlet) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
Capitol Suites Jl. Prapatan Raya Central Jakarta 327
The Royal Springhill (Bulgari Tower) Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran Central Jakarta 192
Holland Village (Phase II) Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 230
Signature Park Grande Jl. MT. Haryono East Jakarta 1,100
Bassura City (Tower Cattleya) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 600
East Park Apartment (Tower C) Jl. KRT Radjiman East Jakarta 550
Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Tosca) Pulo Gebang East Jakarta 133
Pluit Seaview (Tower Ibiza) Pluit North Jakarta 500
Pluit Seaview (Tower Bahama) Pluit North Jakarta 650
La Venue - North Tower Jl. Pasar Minggu South Jakarta 253
Kemang Village (The Bloomington) Jl. P Antasari South Jakarta 150
continued
2017
2018
1%
0% Non-prime
21%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Apartment
The apartment for lease market in Jakarta was mainly dominated
by two global brands of serviced apartment operator, i.e. The
Hard Cash Ascott Limited and Frasers Hospitality. The Ascott Limited has
16% Mortgage three brands in operation, Ascott Residence, Somerset and
26% Citadines. Frasers Hospitality has only Fraser Residence but in
the upcoming years, Fraser Hospitality will have Fraser Suites
(Ciputra World II), Fraser Place (Setiabudi Sky Garden) and
Capri by Fraser.
Cash
Installment
58%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
USD 21.00 at IDR10 billion but a revision is pending to reduce this to IDR2
USD 18.00 billion. The planned revisions would encompass a much wider
range of property sales, as a IDR2 billion apartment in Jakarta is
USD 15.00
currently considered as middle to middle-upper segment, which
USD 12.00 comprises about 23% of the total existing apartments. On the
USD 9.00
other hand, it is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the upper
to luxury class apartments, since this kind of buyer will pay for a
USD 6.00 high-quality product and is not relatively price sensitive.
USD 3.00
The apartments for lease market is expected to remain quiet
USD 0.00 in the upcoming quarters due to the current issues regarding
2009
2010
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
an additional regulation that will require foreigners to master
the Indonesian language before they are able to obtain a work
permit. This regulation may hamper the inflow of a number of
CBD South Jakarta (inc. Non-Prime Area) expatriates coming to Indonesia. In contrast, the establishment
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
of the ASEAN Economic Community should create a business
momentum that will gradually improve the Jakarta apartments
for lease market.
As mentioned above, some serviced apartments in the CBD
raised their rental rates by 3 to 5%. One serviced apartment
building adjusted the rental rate quite significantly and thus
impacted the drop of overall rental rates in the CBD. On the other
hand, apartments for lease in South Jakarta (including non-
prime area), which mostly consist of non-serviced apartments,
kept the rental rate the same as in the previous quarter. In
addition, since many non-serviced apartments quote the rental
rate in rupiah, the strengthening US dollar impacted the overall
rental rates in US dollars.
West Jakarta
5,500,000
5,000,000 Central Jakarta
4,500,000
4,000,000 CBD
3,500,000
sq m
1,000,000
While proceeding with the construction of New Harco Plaza,
500,000
Agung Podomoro is preparing to launch Podomoro Park in
0 Buaran, East Jakarta. Similar to their previous project (Podomoro
City in West Jakarta), the shopping mall in Podomoro Park will
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015F
2018F
2016F
2015YTD
3,000,000
and Holland Village Mall are preparing to start construction in
2015. Some of those have confirmed that they will break ground 2,500,000
within the first half of 2015. 2,000,000
1,500,000
Experienced developers are still the main contributors of
additional supply of shopping centres in Jakarta. Agung 1,000,000
Podomoro Land (APL) and Pondok Indah Group will become 500,000
active contributors of new shopping centres in Jakarta. They will 0
provide around 48% of the total additional supply during 2015 -
2011
2013
2015YTD
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2015F
2018F
2016F
2018.
3,000,000
Tangerang
2,500,000
2,000,000
Depok
sq m
1,500,000
1,000,000 Bogor
500,000
0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000
sq m
0
Existing Supply up to 2014 Future Supply in 2015 - 2018
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015F
2016F
2018F
2015YTD
2016. This only represents 25% of the total additional supply in 1,500,000
2015 - 2018.
1,000,000
Larger additional supply in 2017 - 2018 will be contributed
mostly by shopping centres located adjacent to or integrated into
residences, both vertical and landed houses. 500,000
0
2010
2017F
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015F
2016F
2018F
2015YTD
Jakarta
2015
Pantai Indah Kapuk Mall Agung Sedayu Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta 30,000 Under Construction
Shopping Mall @ Pancoran Agung Podomoro Pancoran South Jakarta 8,000 Under Construction
2016
Neo SOHO Mall (Podomoro City) Agung Podomoro Slipi West Jakarta 40,000 Under Construction
2017
Mal Puri Indah 2 Pondok Indah Group Puri Indah West Jakarta 50,000 In Planning
Grand Cipulir Priamanaya Cipulir South Jakarta 30,000 In Planning
Holland Vilage Mall Lippo Group Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 40,000 In Planning
New Harco Plaza Agung Podomoro Glodok West Jakarta 60,000 Under Construction
Mall @ Green Pramuka City Duta Paramindo Sejahtera Pramuka North Jakarta 30,000 In Planning
Pondok Indah Mall 3 Pondok Indah Group Pondok Indah South Jakarta 60,000 In Planning
2018
Mall at The City Centre Kencana Graha Global Mas Mansyur Central Jakarta 65,000 In Planning
Shopping Mall at Podomoro Park Agung Podomoro Buaran East Jakarta 40,000 In Planning
AEON Mall Garden City AEON & Sinarmas Cakung East Jakarta 90,000 In Planning
BoDeTaBek
2015
2016
Bekasi Trade Centre 2 Gapura Prima Bulak Kapal Bekasi 56,000 Under Construction
Metropolitan Mall Cileungsi Metropolitan Land Cileungsi Bogor 25,000 Under Construction
2017
2018
Demand and Occupancy In 2014, quite a few shopping centres had large vacant spaces
due to their transformation by upgrading tenancy layouts and
Since the second half of 2014, the occupancy rate of shopping faades. Apart from that, Jakarta also witnessed some dying malls.
centres in Jakarta continues to increase QoQ. As of 1Q 2015, With poor performance at these malls, some tenants anticipate
several home furnishing and fashion retailers contributed to pulling out due to lower numbers of visitor and low transaction
increase the occupancy to 86.8%. Jysk and H&M are foreign volume. The decreasing performance of those shopping centres
retailers that have entered the Jakarta market around 2013 - will lead to a weakening occupancy of the overall Jakarta area.
2014. Jysk, a Danish retail chain selling household goods such Landlords should anticipate this and look for a way to attract
as mattresses, furniture and interiors, will be very expansive in crowds to their malls.
opening new outlets in 2015. This retailer opened three stores,
Poorer performance was also recorded at middle to middle
two of which are in Jakarta. H&M, will also open more stores in
low class shopping centres that are categorised as trade malls.
Jakarta. Later, the Sweden-based retailer will open a store at a
Occupancy levels at this class of shopping centres during 2014
mall in Pluit, North Jakarta.
continued to weaken. However, as of 1Q 2015, the occupancy at
The projected occupancy of shopping centres in Jakarta is middle class shopping centres started climbing while at middle-
expected to increase at least until the next quarter. Some low shopping centres it continued to decline.
tenants like home furnishings, fashion, department store and
Conversely, upper class, including premium, malls maintained
supermarket seemingly are in the pipeline to open new stores.
a high level of average occupancy. Most shopping centres
When these pre-committed tenants open, retail space in Jakarta
recorded new space absorption from 500 to 2,000 sq m that were
will become limited.
taken by tenants, raising the occupancy of upper class shopping
centres to 91.2% as of 1Q 2015.
Cumulative Supply, Demand and Occupancy in
Jakarta Based on area (CBD and Outside CBD), the occupancy of
shopping centres in the CBD was flat at 92% since the previous
3,500,000 100%
year. With no additional supply for at least three years ahead,
tenant re-layout is the mostly activity found at shopping centres
90%
3,000,000 in the CBD. A renewal tenancy list is one way for landlords to
80% attract a lot of visitors and maintain high occupancy rates.
2,500,000 70% Currently, a luxury mall around Thamrin made small changes
to their layout by relocating tenants from eX Plaza (a mall that
60%
2,000,000 stopped operating in the middle of 2014). To maintain the
50% prestige, this mall had to select potential tenants to occupy the
sq m
1,500,000 space mostly on the top floor. Another mall in Thamrin also did
40%
30% a re-layout due to the opening of a new department store, while
1,000,000
a mall in South Jakarta is also discussing refreshing their tenancy
20%
500,000 mix.
10%
0 0%
After the declining trend in 2014, the average occupancy in the
outside CBD climbed moderately QoQ to 84.6% as of 1Q 2015.
2011
2013
2015YTD
2010
2012
2014
List of New Tenants (of more than 1,000 sq m) during 2015 in Jakarta
Name of tenant type of retailer open at opening time
Jysk Home Furnishing Kuningan City March
Jysk Home Furnishing Pejaten Village March
XXI Entertainment Lippo Mall Puri March
H&M Fashion Emporium April
Matahari Dept. Store Pasaraya June
H&M Fashion Lippo Mall Puri June
Uniqlo Fashion PIK Mall July
Lotte Mart Supermarket PIK Mall July
Informa Home Furnishing PIK Mall July
Ranch Market Supermarket PIK Mall July
Golds Gym Entertainment Dharmawangsa Square July
Debenhams Dept. Store Lippo Mall Puri July
Ace Hardware Home Furnishing PIK Mall October
Ace Hardware Home Furnishing Mall of Indonesia November
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Annual Supply and Demand in Jakarta Cumulative Supply, Demand and Occupancy in
BoDeTaBek
200,000
2,000,000 100%
160,000 90%
1,600,000 80%
120,000 70%
sq m
1,200,000 60%
50%
sq m
80,000
800,000 40%
30%
40,000
400,000 20%
10%
0
0 0%
2010
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
2010
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
100% 200,000
90%
80% 160,000
70%
60% 120,000
sq m
50%
80,000
40%
30%
40,000
20%
10%
0
0%
2010
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
List of New Tenant of More Than 1,000 sq m During 2015 and 2016 in Jakarta and BoDeTaBek
projected
shopping centers location Retailers
completion
Jakarta
PIK Mall 2015 Kapuk, North Jakarta Blitz Megaplex, Muji, Gold Gym, Lotte Mart, Ace Hardware, Fun World, Ranch Market
Neo Soho Mall 2016 Slipi, West Jakarta Central Department Store
BoDeTaBek
Aeon Mall 2015 BSD City, Tangerang Jysk, Aeon Supermarket, Aeon Department Store, H&M, Uniqlo
Bekasi Trade Center 2 2016 Bulak Kapal, Bekasi Hypermart, Ace Hardware
Metropolitan Mall Cileungsi 2016 Cileungsi, Bekasi Matahari, Gramedia, XXI
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2018F 2018F
2017F 2017F
2016F 2016F
2015F 2015F
2014 2014
Average Asking Rents and Service Most shopping centres in Jakarta saw a similar range of asking
base rents YoY. As of 1Q 2015, the average base rent of shopping
Charges centres in Jakarta was IDR521,783/sq m/month, up by 6.1%
YoY. The asking base rent of a typical floor was IDR359,706/
Jakarta sq m/month while the highest rent achieved is typically found
on the ground floor where the average rent was, on average,
IDR674,741/sq m/month. Although the asking base rent was
Asking Base Rent (Sq m/month) Based on Class
relatively flat, landlords will charge 15 - 25% more when renewing
the contracts, which commonly have a three-year lease period.
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 900,000 Based on grade, since 2011, upper class malls experienced 10%
average growth of rents, while middle middle low class only
IDR 800,000 recorded 3% per year. The average asking base rent of upper class,
IDR 700,000 which was IDR921,237/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015, is expected
to increase. Limited vacant space and the plan to introduce new
IDR 600,000
rental rates will likely lift the average base rents in 2015.
IDR 500,000
Middle middle low class malls have begun to see high growth of
IDR 400,000 rents. In the previous year, the growth of the average rent of this
IDR 300,000 mall grade was 2.2%. In 2015, by climbing 2.9% YoY, the average
base rent was IDR343,991/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015. However,
IDR 200,000
the projected growth of rents will be modest as increasing rents
IDR 100,000 still have a strong impact on middle class retailers.
IDR 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
IDR 200,000
IDR 160,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
IDR 120,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
IDR 400,000
IDR 160,000
IDR 360,000
IDR 320,000
IDR 120,000
IDR 280,000
IDR 240,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 160,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 120,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD IDR 40,000
IDR 0
Upper Class Middle Low Average
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
The projected asking base rent in greater Jakarta is expected to Jakarta is still projected as a potential market for foreign retailers.
increase in 2015. Some shopping centres that achieved high However, there is inadequate vacant space in the middle to
occupancy rates still maintain base rents similar to the previous upper class mall particularly in the CBD. Several shopping
year. With limited vacant space, the possibility of adjusting centers mitigate such situation by rearranging the tenancy mix
asking base rents will be high in 2015. and selecting tenants with the capacity to attract crowd and lift
malls performance.
Average Service Charge in BoDeTaBek Based on
Region
IDR 120,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 20,000
IDR 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
2006
2008
2005
2009
2007
2010
2012
2014
2011
2015
2013
in the CBD area from The Westin - Starwood Hotels & Resorts
Group. By 2015, Colliers Indonesia expects an addition of 6,310
rooms in the starred-rated hotels, that will be mostly at 3-star 3-star 4-star 5-star
hotels. Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
2008
2005
2009
2007
2010
2012
2014
2011
2015
2013
15
10
0
2006
2008
2005
2009
2007
2010
2012
2014
2011
2015
2013
There are three major groups of hotel management that Most Active Budget Hotel Operators Based on
are actively expanding their business coverage, i.e. Tauzia Number of Hotels
Management, Santika and Intiland. Santika, with the Amaris
brand has dominated the budget hotel market in Jakarta but 16
recently, Tauzia and Intiland are slowly trying to increase their
market share. By 2016, Tauzia Management will add four hotels 14
with at least 700 rooms in Jakarta, followed by Intiland, which
will expand with another two hotels providing at least 490 rooms. 12
10
Most Active Budget Hotel Operators Based on
Number of Rooms 8
1,600 6
1,400 4
1,200 2
1,000 0
Santika Tauzia Intiland
800
Year to Date Projected Supply During 2015
400
200
0
Santika Tauzia Intiland
For some time, hotel guests have been largely domestic. Most
foreign guests choose to stay in 5-star hotels, with some staying in 500,000
4-star hotels mainly for business trips. The majority of domestic
guests prefer to stay in 3-star hotels. In the last four years, the
average length of stay of foreign guests in 5-star hotels has been 0
slightly higher than that of domestic guests.
2011
2013
2006
2008
2005
2009
2007
2010
2012
2014
The Composition of Foreign and Domestic Guests Source: Jakarta Statistics
100%
Performance
80% The YoY hotel performance is not great, particularly from an
occupancy rate standpoint. According to the STR Global data
point that Colliers refers to, the AOR (Average Occupancy Rate) in
60% March 2015 decreased quite significantly from 66.2 to 56%. This
occurred not only in the CBD area but also outside the CBD area.
There were some factors that probably affect this. First is Election
40% Day when quite a few political parties held congresses and other
political activities in hotel raising the occupancy rate prior to
the legislative election. This explains why the AOR in early 2014
20% was higher than in early 2015. Second is the issuance of a new
regulation, after the new cabinet was inaugurated by the Ministry
of Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform that prohibits civil
0%
servants from holding meetings in hotels. Apart from this, the
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 relatively low occupancy rate will be further challenged by the
Domestic Foreign
continuing new hotel development in the future.
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
Mar 2014 Mar 2014 0%
Mar 2014 Mar 2014
Jakarta CBD Outside CBD
Source: STR Global Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class
40%
USD 120.00
USD 80.00
0%
Mar 2014 Mar 2014
USD 60.00
Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class
USD 40.00
Upscale Class Upper Midscale & Midscale Classes+
Source: STR Global
USD 20.00
USD 0.00
Mar 2014 Mar 2014
USD 180.00
USD 160.00
USD 140.00
USD 120.00
USD 100.00
USD 80.00
USD 60.00
USD 40.00
USD 20.00
USD 0.00
Mar 2014 Mar 2014
USD 80.00
USD 60.00
USD 40.00
USD 20.00
USD 0.00
Mar 2014 Mar 2014
Sector
for industrial land versus the limited stock of land on offer will
still characterise the overall industrial market although the
expectation of future industrial land is high. Since 2011, land
scarcity has been a major problem for most industrial estates,
and the substantial surge in land demand is at the crux of this
Supply problem. In certain industrial estate locations like in Bekasi,
quite a few potential buyers seeking industrial land come to the
Commencing in 2015, around 50 ha of new industrial land were estate frequently there was less transaction recorded because
introduced by Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate. This new industrial the land is limited. When the landlords have more bargaining
land stock is ready for sale. Sizeable industrial land remains power, some of them that are located in highly demanded areas
limited and thus far, many plans for expansion have yet to be like Bekasi or Karawang continue to sell raw land at the price of
concluded. ready-to-use land. Buyers are taking the position of acquiring
raw land at the current price to anticipate a further increase
In 2015, the industrial market will receive quite sizeable
when land is offered in a ready-to-use condition. Buying raw
new industrial land from the expansion of several industrial
land (at the ready-to-use price) is something common.
estates. Apart from the 50 ha available above, around 5.4 ha is
also available from Suryacipta. Another expansion of 25 ha of
commercial area will also be contributed by Bekasi Fajar, This
parcel will be offered at a different price from the industrial lots. Demand
Thus far, only around 80 ha were recognised as this quarters
supply. Total sales during 1Q 2015 was much underpinned by the sales
in the Serang area. In general, sales activity during the quarter
One industrial estate located in Bekasi is accelerating the was quiet compared to the previous quarter. In Tangerang,
conclusion of land acquisition and permitting as part of the Millennium was the only active industrial estate.
expansion plans for around 600 ha. This industrial estate has yet
to confirm that the 600 ha extension plan on which they are now Overall, sales of industrial land were sluggish in this early period
working will be ready at a specified time. Likewise, two industrial of the year. Sales activity within operating industrial estates was
estates in Serang are also working on expanding the industrial relatively low. The good thing is that the total sales during 1Q
land with a total area of more than 400 ha. 2015 was much underpinned by the sales at two industrial estates
in Serang involving around 42 ha of land. Land absorption is
Apart from operating industrial estates that are actively definitely weakening compared to the same quarter last year.
expanding their zone are several upcoming industrial estates However, we still see that the industrial market is strong with
located mainly in Karawang that are part of a big consortium potential buyers continuing to ask for industrial land, although
called Trans Hexa Karawang. the inquiries are still sporadic.
Several industrial estates will focus on delivering industrial Total sales in Serang during 1Q 2015 jumped quite substantially
land that they have sold to industrial tenants. At the same time, compared to last quarter due to sales at two major industrial
expansion is still needed for developers to maintain sales. Land estates in this area, from 17.15 ha to 42.05 ha this quarter.
acquisition is one issue that takes most of the time even when the KIEC reported about 9 ha of land sales (from the total planned
land has been part of the whole master plan. transaction of 18 ha). This piece of land was sold to coal
storage company, which is related to the cement industry.
While some expansion projects are still underway, the transaction Modern Cikande, on the other hand, consistently records sales
activity continues. However, we only recognise new supply when transactions and has been always be the main driver of the
land is ready for occupation with ready infrastructure. overall transactions in the greater Jakarta area. Thus far, 33 ha
of land transactions in Modern Cikande were concluded by
five companies from the chemical, probiotic, lubrication, baby
diapers and F&B industries. All of these transactions were by
new companies.
With limited land to offer, total land transactions in Karawang Modern Cikande
are still about the same as last quarter. Contributed only by
Suryacipta and KIIC, this quarters sales are only 6.4 ha, not very Delta Silicon
different from last quarters 8.5 ha. A new chemical industry took Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon
5.4 ha in Suryacipta, which helped Suryaciptas performance
after recording no transactions last quarter. This is the biggest Greenland International Industrial
land transaction in Karawang for this quarter because KIIC Suryacipta
only recorded land sales of around 1.1 ha to a new auto-parts
company from Taiwan. In Karawang, two industrial estates MM2100 Industrial Town
under the brand of Kota Bukit Indah did not record sales or
Jababeka
leasing transactions.
Millenium
Again, Millennium industrial estate consistently recorded sales,
albeit a small one of 1.82 ha and this was the only transaction CCIE
during 1Q 2015 in Tangerang. KIIC
full year of 2015, as the market will be very dynamic. One thing
600 that we can opine is that the warehouse and logistics companies
together with consumer goods will be the most active tenants for
400 this year.
200
0
2011
2013
2006
2008
2009
2015YTD
2007
2010
2012
2014
Building
Logistics/ Heavy USD 200
Material
Warehousing Equipment
Machinery 10.95%
21.64% 7.30%
1.34% Medical
Chemicals
USD 150
1.25%
7.95% Others
1.28% USD 100
Plastics
1.22%
USD 50
Automotive
Food & 5.48%
Consumer
Goods Beverage USD 0
27.99% 13.60%
2006
2008
2009
2007
2010
2012
2014
2011
2013
2015YTD
Bogor Bekasi Tangerang Karawang Serang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Another industrial estate in Serang was also quite confident Maintenance Cost
with the new price of IDR1.9 million/sq m, representing a 8.5%
increase over last quarter. This brought the average industrial In general, maintenance costs stood at the same level as last
land price in Serang to USD132.77/sq m (after converting from quarter. Only in Serang did two operating industrial estates
local currency to US dollars). announce adjustments in service charges during the quarter
under review. The average service charge in Serang was IDR449/
Other than these two regions, industrial land prices are stable in sq m/month last quarter and in 1Q 2015 it rose to IDR592/sq m/
Bogor, Tangerang and Karawang. There might be a slight price month.
adjustment during 2015, depending on the economy and sales
performance for the full year of 2015.
$0.10
$0.08
US $/ sq m/ month
$0.06
$0.04
$0.02
$0.00
2011
2013
2006
2008
2009
2015YTD
2007
2010
2012
2014
Concluding Thought
The industrial market initiated the year with relatively good
performance with total sales for 1Q 2015 about a quarter of sales
in the full year of 2014. Albeit lower than last quarter, at least the
industrial market has signalled for further recovery as buyers
have been actively looking for industrial land during the quarter.
6 continents
United States: 140
Canada: 31
Latin America: 24
Asia: 39
ANZ: 160
EMEA: 108
Colliers International Indonesia
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