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RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 13 MAY 2017

Glenmark
BUY
INDUSTRY PHARMA
Down but not out!
Glenmarks (GNP) 4QFY17 performance was The US business: Post Zetia, the US business is likely to
CMP (as on 12 May 17) Rs 759 disappointing on all counts. While overall top line be driven by several derma launches over FY18-19E.
Target Price Rs 1,100 numbers were in line with expectations, sales from We are modelling 13% CAGR on the high base of
the US segment and gZetia were not. The EBITDA FY17E. Some significant launches over the next two
Nifty 9,401
margin came in at 20.5%, well below estimates. PAT years include gEpiduo, gMultaq, gWelchol, gRenvela,
Sensex 30,188
also took a beating on account of an impairment loss gFinacea and gNasonex. The recent launch of
KEY STOCK DATA of ~Rs2.6bn. Debt reduction was lower than the Clobetasol is also lucrative, and will be a significant
Bloomberg GNP IN guidance of Rs. 32bn given by the management. contributor once the entire range is launched.
No. of Shares (mn) 282 However, it is not all doom and gloom. Adjusted for The India business: Growth was tepid in 4QFY17
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 214/3,330 the Venezuela cash write-off, net debt is Rs 33.4bn, (~6%YoY), affected by channel issues. However, we
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 503 lower by ~Rs3.25bn. Also, R&D spending was believe that GNPs domestic business is robust, and
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) significantly higher in 4Q, at ~15.7% of sales. more resistant to seasonal and other external
52 Week high / low Rs 994/729
Adjusted for R&D and forex losses, the EBITDA disturbances. We foresee ~14% CAGR over FY17-19E,
margin would be ~24-25%. on the back of improving traction in anti-diabetes,
3M 6M 12M
Our view on GNPs strong innovative pipeline derma and respiratory therapies.
Absolute (%) (20.3) (13.9) (11.6)
remains unchanged, and positive results from clinical Profitability dented: Reported EBITDA margins
Relative (%) (26.9) (26.5) (28.6)
trials will be a key trigger for the stock going expanded ~1150bps YoY, on a low base. However,
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) forward. Debt reduction is expected to play out there was a sharp unexpected dip on a sequential
Promoters 46.5 gradually over the next two years. At CMP, GNP basis, largely on account of higher R&D spend and
FIs & Local MFs 6.05 trades at 19.2x FY18E and 14.1x FY19E, a yawning lower gZetia sales. While we expect the base EBITDA
FPIs 34.77 discount to peers. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of margins to expand ~250bps over FY18-19E, this will be
Public & Others 12.68 Rs 1,100 (18x FY19E and Rs 135/sh for pipeline). dependent on ANDA launches and R&D spends.
Source : BSE
Financial Summary
(Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 24,244 21,740 11.5 24,630 (1.6) 76,340 91,857 102,870 114,555
Amey Chalke EBIDTA 4,961 1,952 154.2 6,930 (28.4) 14,172 20,367 23,758 25,811
amey.chalke@hdfcsec.com APAT 2,809 1,487 88.9 4,771 (41.1) 7,019 8,340 11,130 15,138
+91-22-6171-7321 Diluted adj. EPS (Rs/sh) 10.0 5.3 88.9 16.9 (41.1) 24.9 29.6 39.4 53.6
P/E (x) 30.5 25.7 19.2 14.1
Siddhant Mansukhani
siddhant.mansukhani@hdfcsec.com RoE (%) 19.3 18.1 19.9 21.7
+91-22-6639-2476 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research # Consolidated
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

The US business was the main Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Consolidated)


driver for the top line, which Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%)
included gZetia sales under Net Sales 24,244 21,740 11.5 24,630 (1.6)
exclusivity Material Expenses 7,769 7,439 4.4 5,990 29.7
Employee Expenses 3,847 3,482 10.5 4,017 (4.2)
R&D expenses were very high R&D Expenses 3,800 2,391 58.9 2,759 37.8
during the quarter, roughly Other Expenses 3,867 6,476 (40.3) 4,934 (21.6)
~16% of sales. Management EBITDA 4,961 1,952 154.2 6,930 (28.4)
Depreciation 845 584 625
expects R&D to be between
EBIT 4,115 1,368 200.9 6,304 (34.7)
11-12% of sales in FY18
Net Interest Income (1,732) 714 249
PBT 2,384 2,082 14.5 6,553 (63.6)
Tax is negative owing to
Tax (425) 594 1,782
deferred tax credit taken
EO Items (Adj For Tax) 2,598
during the quarter
RPAT after Extraordinary Items 211 1,487 (85.8) 4,771 (95.6)
Minority Interest 0 0 (1)
Extra ordinary items pertains
APAT 2,809 1,487 88.9 4,771 (41.1)
to a one-time impairment
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
provision for an asset
Margin Analysis
4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (bps) 3QFY17 QoQ (bps)
Material Expenses % Net Sales 32.0 34.2 (217) 24.3 772
Price erosion in the base Employee Expenses % Net Sales 15.9 16.0 (15) 16.3 (44)
business, lower gZetia sales, R&D Expenses % Net Sales 15.7 11.0 467 11.2 447
and higher R&D spend were Other Expenses % Net Sales 15.9 29.8 (1,384) 20.0 (409)
the chief causes of the EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5 9.0 1,148 28.1 (767)
margin decline Tax Rate (%) (17.8) 28.5 (4,640) 27.2 (4,504)
APAT Margin (%) 11.6 6.8 474 19.4 (778)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

US Formulations Growth Trajectory India-branded Formulation Growth Trajectory


US sales (US$ mn) Domestic Revenue (Rs bn) YoY growth (%)
US sales were below 184
expectations in 4QFY17 on 27.3
154
account of lower gZetia sales 22.5
115
104 15.0 17.2
92 93 99
87 88
12.7
10.4 10.9
India sales were affected by
5.9 6.9
lingering demonetisation
impact and the disruption
4 5 6 5 5 5 7 5 6
caused by GST
4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

EBITDA margin declined RoW Business Growth Trajectory EBITDA Margin: Trend
significantly on a sequential
RoW Revenues (Rs bn) YoY growth (%) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA margin (%)
basis. R&D expense for the
35.6
quarter was significantly 28.1
higher at ~15.7% of sales (vs 21.2 23.4 20.4
14.1
11.2% in 3QFY17). This was 20.8 19.9 19.4 20.5
6.2 18.3
the primary cause of the 17.7 17.0
EBITDA margin decline 13.9

-25.2 -3.1

-35.8
2.2 1.6 2.1 2.4 3.0 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.9
3 3 4 3 3 3 4 7 5
4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

Segmental Quarterly Performance


US sales disappointed on Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%)
account of soft gZetia sales India 5,769 5,398 6.9 5,169 11.6
US 10,004 6,520 53.4 12,308 (18.7)
Europe 2,298 2,705 (15.1) 1,957 17.4
India business growth was ROW 2,889 2,980 (3.1) 2,511 15.1
disappointing, with GST LATAM 1,340 2,416 (44.5) 947 41.5
disrupting channel supply API 1,997 2,229 (10.4) 1,921 4.0
Licensing Income 274 819 (66.6) 537 (49.0)
Total 24,572 23,067 6.5 25,350 (3.1)
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Growth in Europe was
impacted by the depreciation
of the Pound Assumptions
FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E
India 21,093 23,038 26,148 30,070
Growth (%) 20.6 9.2 13.5 15.0
US 24,203 37,007 43,118 47,103
Growth (%) 18.7 52.9 16.5 9.2
Europe 7,171 7,101 7,598 8,130
Growth (%) 11.3 (1.0) 7.0 7.0
The management has guided
RoW 9,033 9,888 11,668 13,768
for ~15% top-line growth in
Growth (%) 11.2 9.5 18.0 18.0
FY18
Latam 7,495 5,181 5,596 6,043
Growth (%) (1.9) (30.9) 8.0 8.0
API & Others 7,502 9,642 8,742 9,441
Growth (%) 18.1 28.5 (9.3) 8.0
Total 76,496 91,857 102,870 114,555
Growth (%) 15.1 20.1 12.0 11.4
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

Peer Valuations
Mcap CMP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)
Reco TP
GNP is now trading at (Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
favourable valuations Sun Pharma 1,576 655 BUY 870 27.7 32.8 37.6 23.6 20.0 17.4 19.4 19.5 19.0
Lupin 564 1,254 BUY 2,150 66.1 78.9 97.8 19.0 15.9 12.8 24.4 23.7 23.8
Cadila Healthcare 500 488 NEU 430 12.2 16.9 21.7 40.1 28.9 22.5 21.7 25.4 26.7
Cipla 455 567 NEU 590 16.9 23.5 29.3 33.4 24.1 19.3 11.0 13.7 15.0
Dr. Reddy's 439 2,585 NEU 2,960 85.7 126.8 164.4 30.2 20.4 15.7 10.6 14.2 16.1
Aurobindo 364 623 BUY 930 40.4 44.7 51.8 15.4 13.9 12.0 29.0 24.9 23.0
Alkem Labs 226 1,893 NEU 2,235 76.4 80.4 106.4 24.8 23.5 17.8 23.6 20.9 23.2
Torrent Pharma 220 1,299 BUY 1,700 49.5 68.9 90.2 26.3 18.9 14.4 22.6 26.0 27.7
Glenmark 214 759 BUY 1,100 29.6 39.4 53.6 25.7 19.2 14.1 18.1 19.9 21.7
Divis Labs 166 626 BUY 730 42.4 38.5 45.4 14.8 16.3 13.8 24.1 18.9 19.7
Alembic Pharma 113 599 BUY 675 21.4 25.7 33.8 28.0 23.3 17.7 23.0 23.2 25.1
Granules India 33 143 BUY 180 7.2 8.3 11.7 19.9 17.3 12.2 21.0 19.3 22.8
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

Income Statement (Consolidated) Balance Sheet (Consolidated)


Year ending March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Year ending March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Net Revenues 65,953 76,340 91,857 102,870 114,555 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 10.2 15.7 20.3 12.0 11.4 Share Capital - Equity 271 282 282 282 282
Material Expenses 19,344 23,614 26,143 28,803 33,221 Reserves 29,732 42,420 49,112 62,397 76,874
Employee Expenses 12,024 13,782 16,408 18,213 20,125 Total Shareholders Funds 30,003 42,702 49,394 62,679 77,156
SG&A Expenses 12,291 11,691 12,376 14,093 15,694 Minority Interest (2) (3) (4) (4) (4)
Other Operating Expenses 10,542 13,082 16,563 18,002 19,704 Long Term Debt 25,744 24,873 45,363 40,827 36,744
EBITDA 11,751 14,172 20,367 23,758 25,811 Short Term Debt 12,256 15,008 1,872 1,872 1,685
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.8 18.6 22.2 23.1 22.5 Total Debt 37,999 39,881 47,235 42,699 38,429
EBITDA Growth (%) (8.7) 20.6 43.7 16.6 8.6 Net Deferred Taxes (6,933) (9,073) (11,914) (9,250) (8,750)
Depreciation 2,600 2,691 3,168 3,415 4,077 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 61,068 73,507 84,711 96,124 106,831
EBIT 9,151 11,480 17,199 20,343 21,735 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Other Income 564 356 373 750 750 Net Block 16,304 19,471 21,160 27,745 31,168
Interest 1,902 1,789 2,373 2,248 2,028 CWIP 4,923 5,726 7,556 4,500 5,500
PBT 7,814 10,047 15,199 18,844 20,457 Intangibles 12,135 14,452 12,070 14,070 15,570
Tax (Incl Deferred) 1,190 3,028 3,442 4,900 5,319 Total Non-current Assets 33,361 39,650 40,786 46,315 52,239
RPAT 6,623 7,019 11,757 13,945 15,138 Inventories 12,690 15,678 21,390 23,956 26,677
Minority Interest (1) - - - - Debtors 25,118 24,926 24,043 31,002 34,524
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 1,871 - 3,417 2,815 - Other Current Assets 7,973 9,678 13,265 15,501 17,262
APAT 4,753 7,019 8,340 11,130 15,138 Cash & Equivalents 8,003 9,354 10,721 10,792 11,334
APAT Growth (%) (12.3) 47.7 18.8 33.5 36.0 Total Current Assets 53,783 59,637 69,419 81,251 89,797
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 17.5 24.9 29.6 39.4 53.6 Creditors 20,457 21,961 19,035 22,547 25,108
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Other Current Liabilities &
5,620 3,819 6,459 8,896 10,096
Provns
Total Current Liabilities 26,077 25,779 25,494 31,443 35,204
Net Current Assets 27,707 33,857 43,925 49,808 54,593
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 61,068 73,507 84,711 96,124 106,831
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

Cash Flow Key Ratios


Year ending March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Reported PBT 5,943 10,047 12,602 18,844 20,457 PROFITABILITY (%)
Non-operating & EO items 1,307 (356) (2,970) (750) (750) GPM 70.7 69.1 71.5 72.0 71.0
Interest expenses 1,902 1,789 2,373 2,248 2,028 EBITDA Margin 17.8 18.6 22.2 23.1 22.5
Depreciation 2,600 2,691 3,168 3,415 4,077 APAT Margin 7.2 9.2 9.1 10.8 13.2
Working Capital Change (947) (4,799) (8,701) (5,812) (4,242) RoE 15.9 19.3 18.1 19.9 21.7
Tax Paid (2,981) (5,146) (6,178) (4,900) (5,319) RoIC (or Core RoCE) 14.6 12.5 18.0 17.6 16.8
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 7,823 4,227 292 13,047 16,250 RoCE 12.4 14.1 14.7 16.1 18.4
Capex (4,982) (8,980) (4,304) (8,944) (10,000) EFFICIENCY
Free cash flow (FCF) 2,841 (4,754) (4,011) 4,102 6,250 Tax Rate (%) 15.2 30.1 22.6 26.0 26.0
Investments (34) 15 193 - - Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7
Non-operating Income 564 356 373 750 750 Inventory (days) 70.2 75.0 85.0 85.0 85.0
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (4,453) (8,609) (3,738) (8,194) (9,250) Debtors (days) 139.0 119.2 95.5 110.0 110.0
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 4,808 1,882 7,354 (4,536) (4,270) Other Current Assets (days) 44.1 46.3 52.7 55.0 55.0
Interest Expenses (1,902) (1,789) (2,373) (2,248) (2,028) Payables (days) 113.2 105.0 75.6 80.0 80.0
FCFE 6,277 (4,289) 1,536 (1,932) 702 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 31.1 18.3 25.7 31.6 32.2
Share Capital Issuance (3,948) 6,340 (1,807) - - Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 109.0 117.2 131.9 138.4 137.8
Others (134) (24) (107) - 500 Debt/EBITDA (x) 3.2 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.5
Dividend (635) (660) (660) (660) (660) Net D/E (x) 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (1,810) 5,749 2,407 (7,445) (6,458) Interest Coverage (x) 4.8 6.4 7.2 9.0 10.7
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 1,561 1,367 (1,039) (2,593) 542 PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EO Items, Others (1,871) - 2,598 2,664 - EPS 17.5 24.9 29.6 39.4 53.6
Closing Cash & Equivalents 7,638 9,004 10,563 10,635 11,177 Dividend 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Book Value 110.6 151.3 175.1 222.1 273.4
VALUATION
P/E (x) 43.3 30.5 25.7 19.2 14.1
P/BV (x) 6.9 5.0 4.3 3.4 2.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.1 17.3 12.3 10.4 9.3
EV/Revenues (x) 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.1
OCF/EV (%) 3.3 1.7 0.1 5.3 6.7
FCF/EV (%) 1.2 (1.9) (1.6) 1.7 2.6
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 3.0 (2.0) 0.7 (0.9) 0.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Glenmark TP Date CMP Reco Target


1,300 16-Aug-16 845 NEU 925
29-Oct-16 932 NEU 900
1,200
21-Dec-16 937 NEU 900
1,100 23-Jan-17 891 NEU 900
1,000 3-Feb-17 947 NEU 960
900 12-Apr-17 891 BUY 1,020
800 3-May-17 894 BUY 1,165
13-May-17 759 BUY 1,100
700
600 Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Sep-16

Feb-17
Nov-16
Jun-16
May-16

May-17
Dec-16

Mar-17
Oct-16
Aug-16

Apr-17
Jan-17
Jul-16

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

Disclosure:
We, Amey Chalke, MBA & Siddhant Mansukhani, ACA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have
beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities
Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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GLENMARK: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17

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Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

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