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Caribbean Advanced Proficiency

Examination
Integrated Mathematics
Statistical analysis

Name of candidates: Hadiya Victorine


Mark Anthony Henry
Orwin Austin
Kelston Shipley
Jehu West

Centre Number: 090041

School: Queens College

Projec
t Title
To investigate the relationship between the quantity of rice exported (metric tonnes) and the time period (years)
2006-2015
Introd
uction
Agriculture is a vital component in all developing countries. Of all the agriculture products produced by
the countries, rice is the second most major crop grown by Guyana and it contributes to 13% of the countrys
GDP, second best to sugar. Most of the rice industry is owned by the private sector collectively managed by a
board of directors called the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRBD).

Over the years, export of rice commodities has been quite unstable with both positive and negative
effects. Being the second major crop grown, if Guyana cannot meet its demand of its foreign exchange-partners,
Guyanas economy has a chance of being crippled. Therefore, the purpose is to investigate the relationship
between the amount of rice production exported between the years 2006-2015. The investigation identifies and
evaluates the factors affecting the quantity of rice exported. With the results obtained, the Guyana Rice
Development Board can predict how future exportation rates may fluctuate and how it can be minimized, avoided
and possibly, handled.

Mathe
matic
The amount of rice exported annually depends on the amount produced in Guyana which is dependent on

al
climatic conditions throughout each year. Being a less developed country, agriculture is one of the most integral
elements of Guyanas economy. This project seeks to analyse the quantity of rice exported in Guyana from the
year 2006 to 2015.
Formu
The analytical technique which will be used in this research is Correlation and Linear Regression. Correlation

lation
tends to show the strength of the relationship between the two variables whereas regression seeks to plot this
relationship on a line. Therefore, in this project the way in which the amount of rice produced vary as the years
go by will be analysed in detail, posing reasons for the increase, decrease or stagnation of the production as well
as suggesting ways in which the production can be improved.
Presen
Time period (year)
tation
Quantity of rice Total revenues earned

of data
production exported (US $)
(metric tonnes)
2006 204 576 54 622 559
2007 269 436 75 251 464
2008 196 233 118 032 802
2009 260 815 114 120 324
2010 336 313 151 321 890
2011 305 382 173 239 722
2012 334 141 196 226 960
2013 394 989 239 826 389
2014 501 208 249 504 955
2015 537 334 220 850 000
Fig 1
Figure 1 showing the amount of rice production exported and total revenues earned on
the exported commodity during (and including) the years 2006-2015. The table shows a
general increase in revenues earned on exportations as the rice industry aged and more
significantly, as the total metric tonnes of rice exported increased.
Quantity of rice exported (metric tonnes)
600000

500000

Quantity of rice exported (metric tonnes)


400000

Quantity of rice exported (metric tonnes) 300000

200000

Linear (Quantity of rice exported (metric tonnes))


100000

0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Time (years)

Fig 2
Figure 2 showing a scatter plot of the quantity of rice exported in metric tonnes against
time (years). The regression line (identified by the linear label) equation is:
y = -70338724.31 + 35151.83636x

Quantity of rice exported Total revenue earned x 1000 (US $)

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Time (years)

Fig 3
Figure 3 shows a line graph comparing the revenue earned and the metric tonnes of rice
exported during the period 2006-2015. It should be noted that the total revenue was
scaled to a value x 1000, to facilitate better comparison.

Calculati
Summary Statistics

x- Time (in years)


ons
y- Quantity of rice exported (metric tonnes)
n = 10
x = 2,010.5 y = 3,340,427

x = 20,105 y = 3,340,427

xy = 6,718,828,510 x2 = 40,421,185 y2 = 1.234947357 x 1012


Sxy = 290002.65 Sxx = 8.25 Syy = 1.191021029 x 1010
Sy = 109133.9099 Sx = 2.872281323

General Equation for the Least Squares Regression Line of y on x


y = a + bx
b = 35151.83636
a = -70338724.31
Equation: y = -70338724.31 + 35151.83636x

r = 0.9252 (to 4 significant figures)

Analysis

of data
Over the period 2006-2015, an overall increase in the quantity of rice exported was observed (as

illustrated in Figure 3). In the year 2008, the rice industry experienced one of its highest export earnings in a long

while. In contrast however, the quantity of rice exported that year was actually the lowest over the 10 year period.

According to the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB), this increased revenue was attributed to the high

prices being offered by the European Union (EU) market. At that time however, there were rice quotas and levy

restrictions on the importation of rice by the EU which accounted for the low quantity of rice exported in that

year.

After the removal of the rice quota in the year 2010, the quantity of rice exported to the European Union

began to rise. In addition, an agreement was signed between Jamaica and several other markets in the Caribbean

Community that allowed for the export of 60,000 metric tonnes of rice yearly. As a result, not only was there an

increase in the quantity of rice exported but also the total revenue earned from the exported commodity.

It is worth highlighting that in the year 2015, there was a drop in the revenue earned compared to previous

years. According to the head of the Guyana rice development bank, the major contributing factor for this was the

drop in the price offered by the Venezuelan market (from US$760 per tonne to US$340-400 per tonne).
The scatter plot in Figure 2 shows a positive linear correlation between the bivariate data. As time

increased, the quantity of rice exported also increased. A value of 0.9252 (to 4 significant figures) was obtained

for the Pearsons Product Moment Correlation Coefficient. This value being extremely close in range to +1

indicated strong positive linear correlation, thus supporting the above claim. The regression coefficient (b) of the

least squares regression line of y on x was found to be 35151.83636. This value represents the slope of the

regression line or the rate of change of the two variables. It can be said therefore that for the period 2006-20015,

that as the years increased, the quantity of rice exported also increased by approximately 35,152 metric tonnes.

Discu
ssion
of
findin
gs
The data obtained established that there was a strong relationship between the rice exported (in metric
tonnes) and years (from 2006 to 2015) i.e. an increase in the rice production exported caused an increase in
exportation of rice commodities. Therefore, we can interpret that as the rice industry grew in age and experience,
their capacity for increasing rice exports generally increased. However, this was not a stable increase in rice
exportation. During the years 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, there was a drastic fall in the metric tonnes of rice
exported. One reason for this was because of the extreme weather conditions (such as heavy rainfall) during these
years which severely affected the rice yield of the second crop grown. Nevertheless, after these two-time periods,
there was an explosion of metric tonnes of rice exported, mainly because of the entry of private rice producers in
the rice industry. The revenues earned also showed a general increase.

From the findings, we can interpret that the metric tonnes of rice exported or the revenue earned on the
exported commodity did not fluctuated as was thought. Thought the rice industry may have its reported success
and failure, it is still a young commodity that can only grow and increase in both production and revenue as the
years increases.

Assumptions:
The statistical data provided by the Guyana rice board was completely accurate.
Any loss of rice owing to transport or other factors was accounted for in the data provided.
All weather conditions and the effect they had on production were taken into consideration by the Guyana
Rice Board.
GDP data was attained from credible sources and are accurate.

Recommendation:
1. To further develop the rice industry to achieve maximum production. In order to facilitate this, there must
be investment towards major technological advancement in term of meteorology. Predicting the weather
and establishing trends of the climate will greatly benefit the rice industry and Guyana in the future.

Limitations:
1. There was great effort in gathering primary information but it was very difficult to interview any members
of the Guyana Rice Board. The members of the board were unable to be contacted or could not insert us
in their busy schedule. An interview would have aided in giving answer to some unanswered questions
which made the research more difficult.

Conclusion:
The rice industry has both its successes and failures. As the rice industry progresses and gathers
experience, the production value can only increase. This was seen by the general increase in metric tonnes of rice
production exported as the as the years increased (from 2006-2015). The relationship between the rice exported
and the years sampled is a positive linear relationship.

References
(2016). Retrieved from http://www.inewsguyana.com/687784-tonnes-of-rice-produced-in-2015/
Annual Report. (2017). Retrieved from Guyana Rice Development Board:
http://grdb.gy/category/annual-reports/
Guyana Rice Development Board . (2014). Retrieved from http://grdb.gy/wp-
content/uploads/2016/10/GRDB-Annual-Report-2014.pdf

(2016). Retrieved from http://www.inewsguyana.com/687784-tonnes-of-rice-produced-in-2015/


Bryan, J. (2015, December 24). Guyana earns less from rice exports in 2015. Retrieved from
Kaieteure News: http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2015/12/24/guyana-earns-less-from-
rice-exports-in-2015-despite-increased-exports/
Appendix

b- Regression coefficient of y on x

b= where Sxy = xy/n - x y Sxx = x2/n - x 2

a= y - b x where y = y/n x = x/n

r- Pearsons Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PMCC)

Sxy
Sx Sy S yy S xx
r= where Sy = Sx =