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Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX


From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/PLN: (4.0455) Retesting 4.0405 (see graph)

FOREX EURPLN=D2, (4.0455, 4.0465, 4.0450, 4.0465, +0.0010)


4.2400 4.26
HOURLY CHARTS 4.25
4.24
4.23
4.2060 4.22
4.2050
4.21
4.20
4.1790 4.19
4.18
4.1550 4.17
4.16
4.15
4.14
4.13
4.12
4.11
4.10
4.09
4.08
4.07
4.06
4.05
4.04
4.0405 4.03
4.02
4.01
4.0120 4.00
3.99
3.98
3.97
3.96
3.9400 3.95
3.94
3.93
3.92
3.91
3.90
3.89
3.88
3.87

2010 May June July


Retesting 4.0405 (see graph) and 200 Day Moving Average↓ (4.0511 today) an back below the daily
Uptrendline off year low (4.1224 today).
Resistance at 4.0699 (daily envelope top), with next levels at 4.0796 (daily Short Term Moving Aver-
age↓), ahead of 4.0878 (reaction high hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 4.0990/ .1027 (idem/ weekly envelope top): tough on 1st attempts.
Support at 4.0365/ .0307 (today’s low?/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 4.0270/ .0222 (daily Bollinger bottom/ modified daily Alpha Beta Trend bottom) and
4.0171/ .0120 (daily Starc bottom/ June 21 low)): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

4.0365/ .0307 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 4.0699 (daily envelope top)

4.0270/ .0222 (daily Bollinger bottom/ see above) 4.0796/ .0878 (daily ST MA↓/ see above)

4.0171/ .0120 (daily Starc bottom/ June 21 low) 4.0990/ .1027 (reaction high hourly/ weekly envelope top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/HUF: (285.35) New recovery high (see graph)

FOREX EURHUF=D2, (285.450, 285.500, 285.250, 285.250, -0.050) 294


292.10 293
292
290.55
291
290
289
288
287
285.20 286
285
284
283
282
281
280
279
278
277
276
275
275.50
274
273
272
271.15
271
270
269
268
267
266
265
264
263
262.05 262
261
260

2010 May June July

Pair hit a new recovery high off year low on break of IMF talks: currently back below the Uptrendline off
262.05 (see graph): Support at 283.68 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 283.37 (weekly envelope bottom)
and 282.96 (last week low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 282.75/ .53 (daily Medium/ Long Term Moving Averages↑), ahead of 282.18 (modified
daily Alpha Beta trend bottom) and 280.51/ .19 (break-up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to 292.10): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

Resistance at 288.65 (reaction high hourly), where pause favored.


If wrong, next levels at 289.48 (daily envelope top), ahead of 290.25/ 290.70 (modified daily Standard Error band
top/ reaction high hourly + daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

283.68 (daily Bollinger midline) 288.65 (see above)

283.37/ 282.96 (weekly envelope bottom/ current reac-


289.49 (daily envelope top)
tion low off 292.10)

290.25/ .70 (see above/ reaction high hourly + daily


282.75/ .53 (daily MT/ LT MA↑)
Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/RUB: (39.1850) New recovery high off year low

FOREX EURRUB=,22 (39.1875, 39.1975, 39.1475, 39.1775, -0.0125)


39.6470
39.7
39.6
39.5
39.4
39.2796 39.3
39.2
39.1
39.0
38.9
38.8
38.7
38.6
38.6200 38.5
38.4
38.3
38.2
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.8975
37.8
37.7
37.6
37.5

37.4455 37.4
37.3
25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 June July

New recovery high off year low (see graph).


1st Support at 39.1431/ .1343 (broken daily Short Term Moving Average↓/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↑),
with next levels at 39.0169/ 38.9915 (daily Bollinger midline/ reaction low hourly), ahead of 38.9069/ .8997 (daily
envelope bottom/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom) and 38.8750/ .8700 (last week low/ reaction low hourly +
weekly envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 38.8150/ .7600 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 38.7170/ .6893 (break-up hourly/ daily Long
Term Moving Average↑) and 38.6400 (redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 39.2663 (daily envelope top), with next level at 39.3075 (reaction high hourly), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.3750/ .4050 (reaction highs hourly), ahead of 39.4832 (modified daily Alpha Beta
trend top) and 39.6270/ .6470 (weekly envelope top/ current new recovery high off year low)): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

39.1431/ .1343 (see above) 39.2663 (daily envelope top see above)

39.0169/ 38.9915 (daily Bollinger midline/ see


39.3075 (see above)
above)

38.9069/ .8997 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) 39.3750/ .4050 (reaction highs hourly)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX


EUR/CZK: (25.1550) Below 25.4200 and trying to extend below channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph)

FOREX EURCZK=D2, (25.148, 25.160, 25.140, 25.150, +0.005)


26.35
26.3000
26.30
26.25
26.20
26.15
26.0800
26.10
26.05
26.00
25.95
25.90
25.85
25.80
25.75
25.70
25.65
25.60
25.55
25.50
25.45
25.4200 25.40
25.35
25.30
25.3000 25.25
25.20
25.15
25.10
25.05
25.00
25.0150
24.95

2010 May June July

Below 25.4200 (see graph) and below weekly Uptrendline off low (25.5040).
Trying to extend below channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph) and daily Uptrendline off Sept 2009 low
(25.1740 today): Support at 25.0910 (today’s low? + weekly projection band bottom), with next levels at
25.0590/ .0460 (daily/ weekly Bollinger bottoms), ahead of 25.0310/ .0150 ( modified daily Standard Error
banc bottom/ year low + daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 24.9750 (Sept 2009 low), ahead of 24.9160 (weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st
attempts.

Resistance area at 25.1730 (daily envelope top), with next levels at 25.2130/ .2260 (daily Short Term Moving
Average↓/ weekly envelope top), ahead of 25.2800 (breakdown daily) and 25.3200 (daily Medium Term Mov-
ing Average↓): ideal area to stay below to keep current mood on CZK.
If unable to cap, next levels at 25.4000/ .4200 (reaction high hourly/ breakdown hourly), where pause favored.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

25.0910 (see above) 25.1730 (daily envelope top)

25.0590/ .0460 (daily/ weekly Bollinger bottoms)) 25.2130/ .2260 (daily ST MA↓/ weekly envelope top)

25.0310/ .0150 (see above/ year low + daily envelope


25.2800/ .3200 (see above/ daily MT MA↓)
bottom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be
held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the
accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5

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