EDITORIAL
WORLD This issue on Terrorism and Geopolitics presents some unique
FOCUS
INDOCENTRIC FOREIGN AFFAIRS MONTHLY JOURNAL
Volume XXXVII Number 02 February 2016
G . Kishore Babu
Editor
Bhabani Dikshit
Managing Editor
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Associate Editor
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cases and challenges. It shows us that terrorism has been often
resorted to in the contemporary world and the nation states are
finding it as a menace that is spiraling out of bounds. While the
method of terrorizing innocent citizens anywhere in this world is
deplorable, the frequency with which the attacks are taking place
presents all the more challenges. Dealing with it has been on the
minds of all the policy makers and extra efforts are being put
forward to handle the situation when the terror strikes occur.
While terrorism itself is quite appalling, carrying it in the name of
God and religion is one of the most absurd things that is happening
around the world. We all have been taught since our childhood
that peace brings happiness and multiple advantages. It promotes
universal brotherhood, harmony, goodwill and faith, thus making
it one of the most required and most sought after virtues.
Therefore, attacks on humanity, especially in the name of God
and religion, seem not only illogical but also unwarranted. There
is a good old adage: life is an echo, give the best and the best
gets back to you. Similarly, love begets love, peace begets peace
and hate begets hate.
The region of West Asia has been under a constant turmoil.
Differences of all sorts exist in this region. At the same time, the
region offers profound opportunities and gains; it is oil rich and
shares its resources with the world and is one of the most sought
after regions for forging meaningful relations. It is to be noted
that it has been battered with internal differences between the
members and have become prone to extra-regional interferences.
Syria and Iraq present a grim picture of horrific incidents that
have been against humanity.
It is the time the world unites against the unwanted elements
that terrorise people and try to bring governments under their
control through dreadful means. There is need for better
coordination amongst members so that these dreadful incidents
do not proliferate and harm people further. The resultant effects
of the disturbances in this area stunt not only their democratic
growth but also hurt their economic well-being and culture. It is
in the best interest of the region and the world if it remains
peaceful and progressive.As the world is moving ahead, what
we need is not violence. All we need is peace and its permanent
existence. The geopolitics of the West Asian region poses major
challenges. It is for the world to make a united forum and address
this menace and settle it once and for all. Religion should be
used to bring peace, not war and violence.
New Delhi G. Kishore Babu
February 2016 Editor
3
 Terrorism & Geopolitics
Contents

Violence and Terrorism in West Asia: Implications for Indias Security

Prof. A.K. Pasha.....................................................................................................................5
Central Asia: Problems and Struggle to Escape Being ISIS Target
Prof. R.G.Gidadhubli...............................................................................................................11
Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
Anil Kamboj, Inspector General (Retd).....................................................................................17
Navigating Terrorism Labyrinth
Prof. Snehalata Panda............................................................................................................24
Terrorism and International Order
Prof. Manas Chakrabarty.......................................................................................................30
ISIS: The Geopolitics of Terrorism
Prof. Rajesh Dogra................................................................................................................35
Recent Indo-Pak Engagement on Terror and the Pathankot Attack :
Implications for India
Dr. Sabita Harichandan..........................................................................................................43
Changing Geo-Politics of Central Asia: Its Susceptibility to Terrorism
Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta...........................................................................................................51
Understanding International Terrorism: Geopolitics and Beyond
Dr. Arunoday Bajpai..............................................................................................................60
Understanding Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
Dr. Sudhanshu Tripathi..........................................................................................................66
The Rise of Islamic State and Evolving US Strategy
Dr. Monish Tourangbam and Aersh Danish..............................................................................73
Geography, Politics and Terror at Play: Case of Northeast India
Dona Ganguly........................................................................................................................79
Pathankot Airbase Attack and Indias Fight Against Terrorism
Dr. Deepak Yadav..................................................................................................................85
Indo-US Cooperation on Countering Terrorism: Zero Tolerance
Dr. Sanghamitra Patnaik.........................................................................................................90
Geopolitics of Counter-Terrorism in Afghanistan: SCOs Strategy is in Question
Dr. Bawa Singh......................................................................................................................97
Reflecting on the Dynamic Geopolitics of Northeast India:
A Contemporary Perspective
Bipasha Lakra......................................................................................................................104
Analysis of the Growing Strategic Threat of ISIS Rebellion in Iraq and Syria
Dr. Chanchal Kumar.............................................................................................................110
Misconception of Islamic Terrorism in the World: A Case of Daesh
Dr. Saleem Ahmad................................................................................................................117
Nuclear Terrorism in the Indian Subcontinent
Souradeep Sen...................................................................................................................123
Terrorism, Organized Crime and Conspiracy Against Humanity
Chandra Kamal Borah..........................................................................................................131
4 World Focus February 2016
 Violence and Terrorism in West Asia:
Implications for Indias Security
In contemporary West Asia, terrorism
normally brings to our attention the mindless violence
committed by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria [ISIS]
and elsewhere in the region and beyond. In addition
bomb blasts in Tunisia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
Yemen, Libya, Turkey, and growing violence in Syria
and Lebanon remind us of indiscriminate terrorism.
Many have condemned terrorist attacks on US and
French marines in Lebanon in the early 1980s when
peace keeping forces from these and other countries
were stationed in and around Beirut soon after the
Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982. Lebanese
President Basher Jamayil and Lebanese Minister
Elias Hobeika and others were killed in 1980s as
also Rafik Harriri former Lebanese Prime Minister
and many Lebanese journalists and leaders. Other
important leaders in West Asia like UN
Representative Count Bernadette, King Abdullah of
Jordan, King Feisal of Saudi Arabia, Anwar Sadat of
Egypt and Yitzhak Rabin of Israel have also been
victims of terrorist violence. Many such violent
attacks targeting prominent people and large number
of innocent civilians can be cited as evidence for
prevalence of terrorism in West Asia.
In the context of contemporary West Asia,
one has to honestly address the legitimate anger and
genuine political despair which provide fertile ground
for terrorists to exploit. US approach to West Asia
especially due to US support to Israel which has been
consistently rejecting UN Resolutions on the issue of
withdrawal from occupied Arab lands and expecting
full compliance/strict implementation of UN resolution
by Iraq, Libya, Iran, Sudan and other Arab/Islamic
states as also threat of unilateral military action for
any defiance. It should also be noted that the ability
of the US to persuade peoples and governments in
West Asia to effectively reject terrorism has been
significantly undermined. To throw more light on this
issue one has to look at the recent past history of the
region and recall that the West perceived Arab
(secular) nationalist movement (Nasserism) in the
Violence and Terrorism in West Asia: Implications for Indias Security
Prof. A. K. Pasha
1950s and 1960s as the primary destabilizing
political force in the region (West Asia) and viewed
Islamic groups, especially those supported by friendly
governments as more desirable and more stabilizing.
Israel viewed PLO as a threat to its security and
encouraged Islamic groups in Gaza and West Bank
which led to the emergence of Hamas and Islamic
Jihad, which have used violence on a bigger scale
compared to the PLO. Many in West Asia, however,
see the operations of Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic
Jihad not as terrorism but as acts of national liberation.
The aim of the Palestinian groups is viewed as
legitimate i.e. liberation from Israeli occupation,
especially from the clutches of an enemy which has
vast military capability. Thus, suicide bombings/
terrorism is seen as a powerful weapon of the weak,
desperate, and helpless facing a far stronger and
vicious enemy.
The suicide bombings as a method of political
violence did not materialize at the push of a button.
It took several years before it was put to frequent
use. Its genesis can be traced to the failure to get
the Israeli military to redeploy its military forces
stationed in Palestinian territories a key failure of
the 1993 Oslo Accords. The Palestinian Authoritys
(PA) failure to secure the redeployment and to
guarantee Israels security demands led to political
factions opposed to negotiations and disposed towards
suicide bombings gaining popularity. Under article 8
of the Oslo accords, the PA was allowed to establish
a strong police force, while Israel would continue
to carry the responsibility for overall security of
Israelis for the purpose of safeguarding their internal
security and public order. Although the sharing of
security responsibilities between Israel and the PA
was working well with minor problems until Ariel
Sharon of the Likud Party became Israeli Prime
Minister in February 2001, but faced with mounting
problems even the US (CIA) intervention couldnt
make the mechanism work. The creation of the
Palestinian security services, under the Oslo Accords,
5
with a mandate in Palestinian populated area (Areas
A) of the West Bank has been irrevocably
undermined. Similarly, the territorial division of the
West Bank that resulted from the Oslo process the
creation of Areas A, B and C is no longer relevant
to the reality in the West Bank and Gaza. Thus, there
is only one area and that area is controlled by the
IDF without Palestinian intermediaries. The Sharon/
Netanyahu governments determined that Yasser
Arafat and the structures he represented PLO and
the PA - are no longer diplomatic or security partners.
Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas failed to play the role
outlined for them, and so they are no longer
relevant. As Haaretz reported on April 14, 2002,
the logic of Sharons plan was this : a military defeat
would convince the Palestinians and the international
community to leave these security zones, including
major population centers, under effective Israeli
control for many years.
The establishment and expansion of Jewish
settlements led to widespread violence against the
settlers. Since the Oslo accords, successive Israeli
governments continued to build new Jewish
settlements and expand existing ones where the
number of Jewish settlers doubled since 1993. The
20 largest settlements in West Bank and Gaza in 2002
had 138,660 settlers. Also the 20 smallest settlements
in 2002 had 2,261 settlers. By 1993 there were
32,750 housing units in the Jewish settlements
completed since 1967 when Israel captured these
Palestinians lands from Egypt and Jordan. Since the
Oslo accords, according to one study 20,371 new
housing units have been constructed representing a
62% increase in eight years from what had been built
over roughly a quarter century. About 10 lakh ie one
million Israeli settlers now live in some 300 settlements
that dot the occupied Palestinian lands and are linked
to one another by means of 450 kms of highway and
bypass roads which also serve to isolate Palestinian
population centers from one another turning them
into Bantustan- like little islands. The rapidly
increasing Jewish settler colonies strengthened the
political power of those Palestinians who rejected the
Oslo Accords. Israel expected full cooperation from
PA irrespective of their colonial/expansionist policies
and what effect these negative policies were having
on popular Palestinian support for PA. Whereas the
Clinton Administration was willing to devote
6 World Focus February 2016
enormous time to resolve the thorny Palestinian-Israeli
dispute, the new Bush administration since 2001
adopted a hands-off approach and wanted both the
parties to resolve their problems bilaterally. But there
was a crucial difference. Whereas Clinton would
talk to Yasser Arafat and other Palestinian leaders
along with the Israeli leaders, George W Bush ignored
Arafat and built up close ties with Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon. The Bush administration
appeared to side with Sharon who argued that Israel
would not talk to the PA until there is a complete
cessation of violence. The September 11, 2001
attacks on World Trade Center and the Pentagon
gave Israeli leaders a unique chance to win US
support for their war against the Palestinians. Sharon
was hopeful that he would make Israel a partner with
the US in the war against international terrorism.
The US administration very quickly realized
that Israeli PM Sharon tried to take advantage of the
9/11 events to push forward his own agenda against
the Palestinians. Colin Powell made it clear that
Israel will not be part of any anti- terror military
action against Afghanistan or elsewhere. The US
administration realized the significance of Arab support
in its war against terrorism. To win over the Arab/
Islamic world and the Palestinians US President Bush
called for the establishment of a Palestinians state
with East Jerusalem as its capital in September 2001.
More and more Israeli leaders began to fear that the
US is getting closer with the Arab states and the
Palestinians in the anti-terror war with Israel being
seen as a burden or ignored. This led to strain in US-
Israeli ties and ultimately Sharon had to express regret
for provoking this public row.
Whereas Bush invoked international justice
to justify the war in Afghanistan but the same standard
of justice to the Palestinians was not applied. Even
though Yasser Arafat was the first Arab leader to
denounce the September 11 attacks but when Arafat
faced Israeli attacks the US squarely blamed the PLO
leader for his predicament as largely of his own
making and openly ignored/sidelined him and called
for the election of new Palestinian leadership. As a
result its Arab/Muslim allies in West Asia find their
ability to delegitimize terrorism undermined. As we
have seen earlier, soon after the 9/11 events the US
led a global campaign against terrorism and especially
the Al Qaeda net work with its attack on Afghanistan.
Although Al Qaeda appears to have been disrupted
as its members were either killed, imprisoned or they
fled to safer places, but terrorists means have
increasingly become legitimate and popular in the
perceptions of most people in West Asia. It is
interesting to note that those carrying out terrorist
acts in West Asia and elsewhere (not just Al Qaeda)
are claiming to do it in the name of Islam. If seen
objectively Islam is not central to the terror issue,
although one cannot say that religion plays no role.
Some groups in the West Asian region may be
dangerous not because of their Islamic character but
due to their violent methods and intolerant ends. The
actions of a few (misguided) radical Muslims should
not be seen as a general phenomenon flowing from
Islamic faith. It is interesting to note that Hezbollah,
Hamas and Islamic Jihad were treated by the US as
local movements fighting against occupation, and not
as part of the global terrorist networks like the Al
Qaeda and so not included in the list of 27 terrorist
organizations whose assets were frozen by the US
Congress. Early resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian
issue is crucial to avoid the specter of terrorism
spreading worldwide. Here it must be mentioned that
US state Department reports had identified that West
Asia was not the leading region in the number of
terrorist incidents throughout the 1990s. It was also
not the leading area as far as the number of attacks
against US targets was concerned. Five years before
the 9/11 incidents terrorism in West Asia had
significantly declined every year and by 2000 West
Asia had emerged as a region with the fewest terrorist
attacks of any around the world except North
America. This global trend must be kept in mind to
counter the futile attempt to link Islam with terrorism.
Since the secular groups could not recruit
the number of members as the Islamic groups did, no
wonder they began to emulate the suicide method.
The suicide bombing phenomenon has thus become
secularized. This is born out of the hopelessness
and humiliation at the hands of Israeli and other
oppressors. Since the Islamic doctrine prohibits
suicide, the perpetrators and their sympathizers may
have used religion to suit their ends. It must also be
stressed that suicide bombing are not confined to
Islamic groups in West Asia. Suicide bombings have
been effectively used as an instrument of violence
Violence and Terrorism in West Asia: Implications for Indias Security
by the Japanese in the Second World War and by the
Tamil tigers in Sri Lanka and elsewhere.
Dilip Hiro in his book War without End says
the ongoing war on terrorism is a war without end.
He emphasizes the need to go to the root cause of
terrorism, and argues that US threats to Iraq an
established government amounts to terror. According
to him, Americans always blame others, never
themselves. Whatever happens to America, it is their
own fault. Americans wont like to hear that. This
war (on terrorism) will go on because of the definition
Bush has put on it. He himself is threatening
established governments: so long as anybody is
terrorizing established governments, there needs to
be a war. More and more people in West Asia now
believe that their governments due to the authoritarian
nature of the political system and also under US
influence cannot do anything to relieve their
humiliation and improve their lot. Hence the
emergence of more radical Islamic groups which
employ suicide bombings. Moreover the secular
groups also follow this strategy under popular support.
According to one writer, suicide bombings take root
because they free the desperate from the need to
rely on governments. Rather than being sponsored
by states, this form of violence challenges states.
Lack of democracy and suppression of political
opposition driver people to join groups and repression
alone cannot eliminate terrorism. Any successful
counter terrorism strategy must thus address both
the opportunities available to militants and the level
of their motivations.
Undoubtedly movement towards democratic
reforms, new innovative methods for economic
cooperation and evenhanded policies on the Arab
Israeli conflict and towards the WANA region as a
whole would go a long way to turn people away from
terrorism and violence as it will inspire hope for a
better future as the region has witnessed revolutions,
coups, several wars, unprecedented violence,
insecurity and instability for several decades due to
external interventions and internal mismanagement/
despotism. Hence state terrorism and counter
terrorism have become vicious cycle with action and
reaction before Israel and the Palestinians and also
gradually spreading to other parts of the world.
7
Indian interests in West Asia: For India, West
Asia and North Africa in general and the Gulf region
in particular are important for a number of reasons.
First, nearly 80 per cent of Indias oil and gas imports
come from the region and the demand for it is growing
at 8-10 percent annually with domestic oil production
gradually declining. India annually imports oil and
products to the tune of billions of dollars. Any
disruption of supplies or increase in prices due to
uncertain security situation in the region will/has
adversely affect Indian economy both in the short
and long term. Secondly, nearly seven million [70
lakh] Indians are gainfully employed in the Gulf region
who send over $50 billion dollars annually as
remittances. Not only this foreign exchange is
significant but the Indian workers safety and security
is of prime importance to India. Indian labor is
growing in GCC States. Thirdly, the region is
important in terms of trade especially exports (over
18 percent of Indias total) which fetch us valuable
foreign exchange [over $200 billion]. Fourthly, the
WANA region is also becoming increasingly important
for Indias food security due to large imports of
chemical fertilizers, phosphate especially from Jordan,
Morocco, Oman, Egypt and other countries of
WANA. Besides these factors investments from the
region both official and private are significant for the
Indian economy. Also a large number of Indian public-
private companies are engaged in lucrative joint
ventures and in building various projects and their
profits are important. Therefore, not only for the above
reasons, but also security and stability in the entire
WANA region is very important for Indian interests.
It must be noted that US/Western and Israeli
policies in the region and also growing differences
among the regional states are creating instability and
opposition groups are increasingly using violence and
terror groups are growing due to US-Israeli
domination of the area through its military/naval
presence as also control of oil resources and blind
support to Israel. In countries like Egypt, Jordan,
Saudi Arabia and other GCC states such policies are
encouraging religious extremism and many people are
embracing terrorism and groups may resort to greater
violence/terror in future not only against the US/West/
Israel but also against US friends in the area. Since
bulk of the Indians live and work in GCC states which
are slow in initiating genuine democratic reforms and
8 World Focus February 2016
where US influence is predominant, hence some
Indians are likely to be influenced due to mounting
extremism preached by certain groups.
The large scale purchase of arms by oil rich
states in the Gulf region would not only lead to pressure
on Indias defense budget but also may lead to
presence of foreign military advisers especially from
Pakistan in these states and probable transfer of
weapons to states hostile to India. According to a
recent US report there has been a shift of focus for
terrorism form West Asia to South Asia. Although
there has been open cooperation with Israel in the
field of agriculture now there is growing tendency to
talk more openly about defense/security cooperation.
As part of the Make in India project, the NDA
government has eased restrictions on defense
manufacturers especially foreign who are willing to
set up R&D and factories in India. Many Israeli firms
like Aerospace Industries and Rafael are interested
in setting up manufacturing units in India. There is
proposal to build Barak air missiles to be exported to
foreign countries. Israeli defense minister visited for
the first time in 2015 for air show in Bangalore. There
is no doubt about Israeli technological lead in
agriculture, water and cancer treatment, space
research and defense but trade which was $200
million in 1990s has increased to about $4.5 billion in
2014-15 as compared with over $200 billion with other
WANA states. In 2016 there is even talk about Israeli
PM Netanyahu and PM Modi visiting each other as
also to accelerate the FTA and push trade to $15
billion in future. It has also become obvious that both
Israel and the Palestinians are incapable of reaching
a solution to their conflict, which very often threatens
peace and security in the WANA region. Moreover
other regional problems and contentions issues are
getting interlined with this problem thereby posing
greater danger of terrorism acquiring a much larger
regional dimensions, and perhaps transnational
dimensions as well. Since India has come to establish
good relations with the US, UK, Russia, France, Israel
and other countries, it has become imperative to find
an external solution to the vexed Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Any delay in the resolution of this conflict
has the potential to adversely affect peace, security
and stability in the WANA region with consequent
implications for India.
 Although India has had historical ties with
Syria/Iraq and now vital interests in the Gulf region,
any support to new US military adventure against
Syria/Iraq would in the short run only make the US-
UK-Israel happy but in the long run have adverse
consequences both on Indias domestic and foreign
policies as also alienate India from the masses in the
WANA region. Our support to Egypt during the 1956
Suez Crisis is still fondly recalled by Arabs all over
the region. India must be with the people of the region
and support their aspirations for greater participation
in the decision making process and the broader issue
of democratic reforms and also safeguard our vital
interests. India must work with the secular/democratic
forces in the region as also the dominant world powers
which have vast stakes in the region to maintain
security and stability so very essential to protect our
vital interests and also to prevent the spread of
violence and terrorism from this volatile region to
India in future. Hence India needs to enhance its
interaction with the countries in the WANA but Gulf
region especially to seek greater role in cooperation
with the states vital to our interests especially to
enhance our oil security. With its abundant oil and
water and human resources and strategic location,
these states were well on their way to becoming a
major Arab powers, much to the dislike of Israel.
But since the last 25 years they have suffered
immensely due to war and poor leadership. In the
event of division of Iraq, the strategic benefits to
Israel-Water and Oil will further enhance its power/
influence in the region. This scenario apart from
altering the status quo in a fundamental way would
also increase anti-Americanism (which is already
widespread in the region) but in the absence of any
genuine democratic transformation in the Arab world,
despite US promises (in 1991 US promised democratic
reforms in the region but did not deliver) to work
seriously for political reforms, political discontent and
religious extremism may create an explosive situation
in the area as frustrated and angry people feel they
have been let down by their own rulers. The pretense
democracy electoral process and rubber stamp
consultative Assemblies which now exist are no longer
taken seriously by Arab people as they have lost hope
in the ability of the present autocratic rulers to bring
about genuine democratic change. Saudi Arabia the
most conservative Arab country a close ally of
the US- where family rule is total and absolute, is
Violence and Terrorism in West Asia: Implications for Indias Security
perhaps the most vulnerable to US manipulations in
the post-Iran plus P5+1 nuclear deal scenario of July
2015. The US has identified Saudi Arabia as the
breeding ground for religious extremism in the region
and the Saudi rulers are apprehensive that the US
will keep them in focus until it undergoes basic
transformation to satisfy US concerns. No wonder
the Saudi rulers have now (after 9/11) taken initiative
for democratic transformation in the Arab world.
Former Saudi King Abdullah proposed a charter to
reform the Arab condition which called for an end
to the silence that has gone on for too long and has
urged internal reform and enhanced political
participation (which are essential steps towards
building Arab capabilities and providing conditions for
comprehensive Arab revival. If the Arab regimes
are reformed, modernized and genuine political
transformation takes places through which peoples
participation in the decision making process is
guaranteed under constitutional supervision, then the
regimes can avoid the incoming cataclysmic changes
and effectively marginalize the extremists religious
elements and hence terrorism. In the absence of
this, there could be an upsurge in terrorism not only
in the West Asian region but also in South Asia and
the West. India should actively encourage the process
of political change and modernization because once
the Arab regimes become democratic and responsive
to popular demands, not only their legitimacy would
be enhanced but also more significantly their
dependence on outside states especially the US and
Russia would come down and this may lead to
reduction in outside military and political intervention
which has periodically undermined peace, security
and stability in the region thereby adversely affecting
Indias interests as well.
Genuine political reforms would give the
politically oppressed people a stake in the running of
the political system as also much needed political
stability and smooth transition. The abundant oil
resources could then be used to advance economic
development so as to engage the Arab people in the
process of political and economic progress.
Undoubtedly for India the threat of religious
extremism and terrorism from the West Asian region
would be contained it this democratic process takes
shape. Along with these steps towards democratic
transformation, steps to resolve the thorny Arab-
9
Israeli issues would also be debated, discussed, at all
forums thereby allowing Arab countries to take
initiatives for meaningful steps along with serious US-
Israeli steps (which are very essential) to tackle the
Arab-Israeli dispute. Both these steps would reinforce
the momentum for change and India could then look
forward to greater peace, security and stability in West
Asia in the future. It is far easier to control terrorism
and religious extremism in liberal democratic political
systems which have high level of legitimacy and strong
domestic control than the present political set up where
the rulers want to remain in total control of all state
affairs. The long overdue change has now become
inevitable but if it is not coming soon internal/ regional
terrorism may be directed against such autocratic
regimes unwilling or unable to initiate reforms. As
seen earlier, instability, religious extremism and
terrorism in West Asia could spill over into South Asia
as security and stability in both the regions are
mutually interlinked through a number of factors. The
most credible option to tackle these twin menaces
which are posing a new challenge to Indias composite
culture, liberal democratic structures and also national
security is to adopt a political course that prevents
alienation of any segment.

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10 World Focus February 2016

 Central Asia: Problems and Struggle
To Escape Being ISIS Target
Declaration by ISIS that the Central Asian
States (CAS) will be one of the targets has been a
matter of great concern not only for these concerned
countries but also for those which are closely politi-
cally and economically linked with Central Asia.
Hence several questions arise. Why are the CAS
targets of the ISIS and what are the problems facing
the CAS due to this declaration by the ISIS? What
policy measures are taken by the state authorities of
the CAS to deal with this situation? What are the
perspectives and challenges?
Problems Facing CAS
There are several factors which are contributing to
the interest of ISIS in the CAS. There are five states
in Central Asia which were formerly part of the
former Soviet Union-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These are
Islamic states having close geographic proximity to
Syria. While Tajikistan has Persian ethnic identity,
all other four CAS are of Turkic ethnic identity.
The CAS have been facing several problems
which are contributing to the prevailing situation.
Firstly, a major problem facing the CAS has been
that these countries have witnessed recruitment of a
large number of youth who have joined ISIS forces
in Syria and Iraq. Even youth below 18 years are
attracted to join ISIS, which is a great advantage for
this organization. Hence according to Kyrgyz offi-
cial sources the number of its citizens might exceed
500 fighting with extremist militants. A large number
of youth are recruited from other CAS as well. For
instance, the Kazak foreign minister Idrissov has
stated in September 2015 that an estimated 200
Kazakh nationals were fighting in Syria.
As stated by a Central Asia expert, the Is-
lamic State (IS) militant group is notorious for re-
cruiting, training, and exploiting children and teenag-
ers on the battlefield.Children and teens who want to
Central Asia: Problems and Struggle To Escape Being ISIS Target
Prof. R. G. Gidadhubli
die waging jihad are especially praised by Islamist
groups in Syria. Majority of those recruited are pre-
pared to give their life for Jihad.
Secondly, the CAS are witnessing a deepen-
ing divide in the society between those supporting
secular forces, and those in favour of conservative
section and radical groups. For instance, seeing the
rise of Islamic State and other extremist groups in
recent years, the Tajik authorities have done their best
to eliminate outward displays including type of dress,
keeping type of beard etc. what they see as danger-
ous and imported aspects of Islam in recent years.
At the same time, as candidly stated by some ana-
lysts including John Heathershaw, any repressive mea-
sures could encourage radicalization. It means those
who do not want to be in line with the state-sanc-
tioned guidelines, might go underground and become
militants.
Tajikistan has been the worst sufferer of mili-
tancy, civil war and terrorism during the aftermath of
the breakup of the former Soviet Union, as more than
100,000 Tajik citizens have been killed. As opined by
Helene Thibault a specialist on Central Asia at the
University of Montreal in Canada the situation is not
entirely stable even at present. According to her,
There are always some fault lines, some regions,
where political antagonism, regional antagonism, are
still there.
Thirdly, the CAS have been facing many
socio-economic problems after the breakup of the
former Soviet Union. For instance, economic condi-
tion of the CAS has worsened during the last few
years. In the case of Tajikistan the growth in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to 6.7 (pc) percent
in 2014 from 7.4 percent in 2013 and that it could
drop to 3.2 percent in 2015. Kazakh economy has
suffered significantly due to decline in oil prices dur-
ing 2014-15 and GDP might be as low as 2-3 pc in
11
2015 while it enjoyed high growth rates of 8-9 pc a
few years back. There is significant decline in indus-
trial and agricultural production. Due to economic
decline, unemployment has been increasing which is
one of the major factors used by leaders of IS to
recruit the unemployed youth. As per some reports,
one among six persons cannot find job in Central Asia.
In fact a large number of youth from CAS particu-
larly from Tajikistan and Kyrgyz republic were get-
ting jobs in Russia during the last about two decades
and sending money to family members for their main-
tenance. A Central Asia analyst Mirzoev has opined
that due to economic recession in Russia itself, many
have returned back to Central Asia which has wors-
ened economic and social conditions for a large sec-
tion of the population. Denied of jobs many are at-
tracted by the IS which not only promises jobs but
also high remuneration for joining the IS.
But in reality contrary to promises made to
the youth, there are reports by some of those who
have returned from Syria that they were not properly
paid. Their experience might be far from happy as
told to a correspondent by Saidmurat from Jalalbad
in Kyrgyz Republic in September 2015. He became
invalid as he was badly injured in the fight and is now
recuperating in a hospital. He is disillusioned as he
was not paid hard cash that he was promised before
joining the IS to fight on the battlefield alongside
Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaedas Syrian affiliate. More-
over, living condition was far from satisfactory as
they were forced to live in cold and dark rooms and
there was not much to eat. He met several persons
from Central Asia and Chechnya. This statement has
been further supported by the head of the Kyrgyz
State Committee for National Security Kanzharbek
Bokoev, who has made candid statement that those
who had been recruited to Syria are victims of fraud.
Fourthly, ISIS has been interested in recruit-
ing not only fighters but also highly qualified persons
from Central Asia. For instance, as reported by
Khusan Mamurov, an analyst with Uzbekistans Na-
tional Security Service (SNB) in September 2015 that
IS militant group had been recruiting doctors, engi-
neers from the CAS including Uzbekistan. They were
promised high salary ranging from $ 20, 000 to $ 30,000
and also advised to bring their families to IS con-
12 World Focus February 2016
trolled territory which meant that they will be avail-
able for long period. But the situation seems to be
pathetic. As reported by journalist Jenan Moussa, IS
threatened to confiscate the property of doctors and
pharmacists who have left. The SNB analyst esti-
mated that 500-600 people from Uzbekistan are still
fighting alongside IS even as reliable data was not
available.
Fifthly, indoctrination has been a major fac-
tor in attracting the youth. There are organizations
and also some religious heads that have succeeded
in this task of indoctrination in the name of Jihad. It is
also reported that some youth from Central Asia are
indoctrinated in Chechnya and other Islamic regions
of Russia.
Sixthly, the CAS are also victims of internal
security threats. For instance, Tajikistan has been a
victim of civil war during which several thousands of
people were killed. Subsequently there were instances
when few political leaders and officials used their
position to acquire wealth by corruption and drug traf-
ficking directly or indirectly supporting criminal and
antinational groups threatening the stability of the
country. As opined by some analysts, the case of
former Deputy Defense Minister Abduhalim
Nazarzoda was unique since he managed to get as
many as 100 armed supporters of the Islamic Re-
naissance Party of Tajikistan (IRTP) and fled to the
rugged Romit Gorge area east of the capital and
wanted ultimately to overthrow the government. On
this issue IRTP leader Kabilri who is self-imposed
living in exile has refuted these allegations and criti-
cized Tajik government by skillfully eliminating
Nazarzoda. Similarly, Ghaffor Mirzoev was another
government ally who in 2004 was arrested and ac-
cused of accumulating a large amount of weapons
with the purpose of staging a coup detat.
Policy Measures by the CAS
The authorities of CAS are taking several policy
measures to deal with the problems facing them.
Firstly, being worried about recruitment of their citi-
zens, they are taking serious measures including sen-
tencing those found guilty of joining ISIS and putting
them for several years in jail. For instance, on the
16th November the Kyrgyz government arrested its
national on charges of recruiting youth for ISIS. As
per reports he belonged to the banned Katibat al-
Imam al-Bukhari group and he was detained at the
Osh airport since he was about to travel to Turkey. A
spokesman for the Kyrgyz State Committee for Na-
tional Security (UKMK) Rakhat Sulaimanov, told on
17th July 2015 that the militants were planning sev-
eral terrorist attacks in the country, including one
against the Russian-led Kant military base, in
Kyrgyzstans north, and another targeting mass Eid
al-Fitr prayers in Bishkek, thus justifying strict policy
measures to prevent such terrorist acts.
Similarly, on the 30 th September 2015
Kazaks regional court sentenced 30 year old
Orazbek Apakashev who was found guilty of being
a member of the Tablighi Jamaat group which is
banned in Kazakhstan. Some Islamic groups have
been under increased scrutiny from the Kazakh au-
thorities since a suspected Islamist militant carried
out the countrys first-ever suicide bombing in the
northwestern city of Aqtobe in 2011.
Tajik government facing similar problems has
banned its citizens to join extremist groups fighting in
Syria and Iraq. In July 2015 as per official sources
420 cases were filed in court against the citizens join-
ing the ISIS. Tajik government has serious concern
because it has admitted that the number of Tajiks
fighting in Syria and Iraq has grown during
the last couple of years to over 500 as stated by the
Interior Minister Ramazan Rakhimzoda in June 2015.
Tajikistan has become a victim of terrorism
since in September 2015 there were armed attacks
in the capital. As opined by some analysts, subse-
quently the Tajik government banned the IRPT and
blacklisted by the Court and arrested its leadership.
But on this issue there seem to be differences as
some analysts contended that in recent past IRTP
was a moderate Islamic section of society and ban-
ning it might not be proper. A Central Asian analyst
Hodizoda has been candid in opining that they might
go underground and would be more radical. But on
this issue disagreeing with the views of analysts, the
Tajik President Rahmon has been quite frank in ar-
guing that rolling back Islamic influence in Tajikistan
was necessary to stop growing militancy among Is-
Central Asia: Problems and Struggle To Escape Being ISIS Target
lamists and security and stability interest of the coun-
try. In fact it is appreciable that the Tajik government
has proposed to give amnesty to those returning from
Syria who have informed the atrocities they faced
which might deter others joining the IS.
Secondly, authorities in Central Asia have pro-
posed to take serious policy measures being concerned
by threats of radicalized youth who ordered to propa-
gate to overthrow the elected governments. For in-
stance, in the first week of December 2015
Tajikistans regional court of Khatlon sentenced seven
youth up to 27 years of imprisonment for being guilty
of supporting ISIS and publicly calling to overthrow
the Tajik government. Similarly, the Uzbek authori-
ties are concerned about extremist attacks in the af-
termath of acts of terrorism in many parts of the world.
As stated by Bruce Pannier in November 2015 more
than 160 people were detained in Uzbekistan on sus-
picion of involvement with the ISIS.
Thirdly, it is a matter of serious concern for
the authorities in Central Asia that some officials at
high levels have been found to be involved in anti-
national activities and supporting these terrorist groups.
For instance, in July 2015 a former Kyrgyz lawmaker
belonging to Ak-Jol (Bright Path) party was suspected
of supplying weapons to militants linked to the Is-
lamic State group. He was detained while attempting
to fly out of the country.
In Tajikistan also there are a few cases where
Tajiks at high level have joined Islamic State having
resigned from their official positions in the govern-
ment and political parties. For instance, the Tajik In-
terior Ministrys Special Forces, Gulmurod Halimov,
appeared in a video clip saying he had joined the Is-
lamic State extremist group to protest the
governments ban on Islamic dress in schools and
offices. Even a more serious case is that of former
Deputy Defense Minister Abdulhalim Nazarzoda, who
resigned from his position and actively participated in
Islamic State activities against the government and
was killed in police operation. He was also alleged to
be a member of IRPT party which has been banned
in the country.
As stated by Central Asia analysts, the IRPT
played an important part in Tajikistans 1992-1997 civil
13
war, which left tens of thousands dead and more than
1 million people displaced. It was the only officially
registered Islamic party in the former Soviet Union,
and was represented in the Tajik parliament for 15
years until it failed in elections in March to meet the
threshold for parliament. But as per official state-
ments due to several alleged terrorist acts committed
by members of IRPT, the government had to take
strong measures on this organization. In fact the de-
cision of the court in September 2015 forced the clo-
sure of the IRPTs Najot (Salvation) newspaper and
banned the distribution of any video, audio, or printed
materials related to the partys activities. The per-
ception of some international agencies on this issue
seems to be different. For instance, as per reports on
2nd October 2015 UNHCR expressed reservation
over Tajikistans banning the IRPT and this UN refu-
gee agency has expressed concern over the risk of
increasing human rights violations in Tajikistan.
Fourthly, the CAS are concerned about cer-
tain political groups that are involved in extending fi-
nancial support to the extremist organizations. For
instance, as stated officially by the Kyrgyz state,
Ak-Jol party is suspected of financially supporting
members of the Islamic State group targeted in
counterterrorism raids and providing them with at least
two Kalashnikov assault rifles. There is a similar case
in Tajikistan where a political unit known as the New
Tajikistan movement was found to be involved in fi-
nancial irregularities including support to antisocial
elements. Hence as per reports it was crushed in
2013 and the founder of the party has been given 29
years of imprisonment on charges of financial crimes.
Fifthly, there is genuine concern on the part
of the authorities that some sections of religious heads
in Central Asia are active in propagating extremist
acts. In several cases they are being convicted for
doing so. For instance, on 7th October 2015, a court
in the Osh region of Kyrgyz state found Imam Rashod
Qori Kamolov guilty of inciting religious discord and
the possession and distribution of extremist
materials and hence sentenced him to five years in
prison. It is reported that Kamolov, a 37-year-old eth-
nic Uzbek, is the imam at the As-Sarakhsi Mosque in
the Kara-Suu district.
14 World Focus February 2016
Sixthly, for almost 20 years, authorities in
Turkmenistan have tried to isolate the country by
constantly referring to its UN-recognized status as a
neutral country. But as the country proposed to
celebrate the 20th anniversary in October 2015, due
to worsening security conditions, its policy of posi-
tive neutrality was undergoing a change. This is
mainly due to the fact that events both regionally and
globally have started to erode this strategy and cracks
were appearing. Hence the definitions of positive
neutrality needed to be revised.
For instance in October 2015 the situation in
northwestern Afghanistan, in the areas adjoining
Turkmenistan particularly Faryab Province was get-
ting from bad to worse. In fact since the last one
year or so security condition was getting worse and
in May 2014 three Turkmen body guards were killed.
There was realization of security concern since both
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are not members of a
military bloc and hence cannot depend upon any coun-
try for their external security threats. In terms of
defense capability Turkmenistan is worse than
Uzbekistan since the Uzbek leadership started build-
ing up its military shortly after becoming indepen-
dent. But being exposed to threat in 2014 Turkmen
authorities have been working to build up the armed
forces and strengthen the presence along the fron-
tier with Afghanistan. As per some reports from the
USA, in March 2015, the Turkmen expressed a de-
sire to acquire U.S. military equipment and technol-
ogy to address threats to their security from Afghani-
stan.
Contentions and Contradictions
The state authorities and opposition groups and crit-
ics have differences on security related issues and
on activities of organizations. For instance, it is con-
tented by some critics that there is discontentment
over the increasingly authoritarian style of governance
which is potentially more dangerous since that might
be partly contributing to recruitment for ISIS. It is
alleged that there is widespread unhappiness over
the dire socio-economic situation in Tajikistan apart
from lack of political freedom. The Tajik President
Emomali Rahmon, who has led Tajikistan since 1992,
has been criticized for his authoritarian-style rule and
his regimes poor human and civil rights records. Same
is the case so far as Uzbekistan is concerned But the
official position in Tajikistan is that security and sta-
bility of the country is important and policies are taken
to safeguard national interest. The Tajik government
while allowing religious freedom does not want ex-
ternal elements to influence their citizens. It is con-
tended by some analysts, the president has controlled
Islam by keeping the nominally independent Muftiat
which appoints Muslim clerics. Majority of the Tajiks
are followers of Hanafi Islam and any other Sunni
sects are considered by the government as detrimental
to social cohesion. Hence as opined by Sojida
Djakhfarova the Salafi (Wahhabi) sect of Islam is
officially prohibited in Tajikistan. The rise of IS and
the recruitment of Tajiks to its ranks has provided
new opportunities for Tajikistan to link certain brands
of Islam, particularly Salafism, with the IS group and
therefore also with threats to national security. Hence
as opined by some specialists the government be-
lieves that Wahhabis plan to destroy Tajiks funda-
mental beliefs of Hanafi Islam and the foundations
of the secular state.
Similarly, as opined by some critics, the Uzbek
government had earlier banned Islamic group Hizb
ut-Tahrir linking it to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU) and now linking it to ISIS. In the 1990s in
Uzbekistan the case of Mullah Abdullo was signifi-
cant who formed IMU, which has been designated
by several countries as a terrorist organization. Hence
the Uzbek authorities have taken strong measures
against suspected terrorists when 160 people were
arrested having links with this banned groups sup-
porting the cause of the ISIS. But some analysts are
candid in stating that this is overreaction and many of
them might not belong to the IS. But contrary to the
state official position, as opined by some analysts Hizb
ut-Tahrir has sought to create an Islamic caliphate
but disavows the use of violence to achieve this goal.
But from the perspective the national interest the
Uzbek president Islam Karimov wants to take pre-
ventive policy measures. Hence for security reasons
in the spring of 2015, the Uzbek law enforcement
agencies conducted a series of exercises in
Uzbekistans section of the Ferghana Valley, which
is a very sensitive region in Central Asia.
Central Asia: Problems and Struggle To Escape Being ISIS Target
In the aftermath of the Uzbek independence
in the 1990s IMU was one of the oldest organiza-
tions with aggressive ideology in Central Asia and is
also highly controversial. Overtime the leadership of
IMU has changed and according to some analysts it
has become weaker during the last about a decade.
Moreover, the location of IMU has changed from
Uzbekistan to Afghanistan and subsequently to Paki-
stan. Apart from that as opined by analysts there has
been change in its alliance s from Taliban to ISIS.
Perspectives and Challenges
In the background of what is stated above, it is worth-
while considering perspectives so far as efforts are
made to find solution to terrorism and security threats
facing the CAS. Firstly, Council for Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) is a regional organization led
by Russia concerning security related issues of the
member countries. Considering the fact that Tajikistan
witnessed several terrorist attacks recently and in
September 2015 when more than 20 people were
killed including police officers threatening stability in
the country, Vladimir Putin has assured Russian help
and support to ensure that Tajik armed forces were
successfully dealing with the problems that arise.
In fact at the CSTO Summit Putin expressed his con-
cern for likely spillover of violence from Afghanistan
into Tajikistan and other CAS. As a part of its sup-
port in October 2015 Russian officials have announced
plans to increase the number of troops stationed in
Tajikistan to 9,000 over the next five years and to
provide more military equipment through 2020. Rus-
sian media have reported that Moscow is also pre-
pared to grant Tajikistan $1.2 billion in military aid
over the next few years.
Similarly, at the CSTO summit meeting held
in the Tajik capital city of Dushanbe in the second
week of September 2015 during which the heads of
Tajikistan and Kazakhstan discussed the need for
greater economic cooperation and signed a new stra-
tegic partnership. This shows that efforts are being
made by the regional leaders to find solutions to the
intraregional differences and problems facing them
including threats to security by terrorist organizations.
Similar efforts are being made by the Shanghai Co-
operation Organization (SCO) to deal with the secu-
rity issues concerning all the member states. It is a
15
challenge for both the CSTO and SCO which have
been in existence after the Soviet breakup, to effec-
tively resolve persisting intraregional issues and solve
the security threats facing the CAS at present. On
the 21st December 2015 leaders of CSTO and EEU
met in Moscow during which the Russian presiden-
tial aide Yury Ushakov stated that adopting a state-
ment on the fight against terrorism will an important
item of agenda, which is an evidence of the serious-
ness of the problem facing all the member countries
including the CAS.
Secondly, it is a matter of great geo-political
significance that on the 16th of October 2015, leaders
of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
signed 17 agreements including a statement on
combating international terrorism and also an
agreement on military cooperation. This is particularly
relevant for the CAS. But CIS has a major challenge
to revive itself and ensure that agreements signed
become effective in reality to solve problems facing
the CAS. It is appreciable that during the conference
held in Kazakhstan, the Russian president Vladimir
Putin specifically mentioned that the situation in
Afghanistan is critical and one of the goals of Islamic
terrorists is to penetrate the Central Asian region.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyz being neighbor of Afghanistan
could be the worst sufferers. But the position of
Uzbekistan is somewhat different. As per reports,
speaking in Tashkent on 1st September 2015 at a
ceremony marking the 24 th anniversary of
Uzbekistans independence, Islam Karimov was
candid in stating that the Uzbek armed forces will
never be involved in any military activities abroad.
Karimovs statement comes five days after the United
States said it had asked Tashkent to join the
multinational coalition against the Islamic State group.
This assumes significance since the country needs
the support of USA and other powers to contain
terrorist threats for its security. Hence it is to be seen
whether there will be change in the policy of the
government as situation changes for worse affecting
the security of the country.
Thirdly, while the CAS are coming close to
Russia, they are moving away from Western countries
and in some cases closing the military bases which
were set up by them in Central Asia to deal with
16 World Focus February 2016
conflict arising from Afghanistan in the aftermath of
26/11 attack in New York. For instance, Germany
has to close its base in Termez in Uzbekistan, in 2014
USA closed its Kyrgyz base in Manas so also France
closed its base in Dushanbe in Tajikistan. This could
be partly because the term of contract was over and
partly due to pressure from Russia. But under the
prevailing circumstances, it will be a challenge for
the CAS to bring about policy revision with regard to
these military bases by the West from the
perspectives of their own security.
Fourthly, the Kazak president Nazarbaev
during his meeting with Putin in October 2015
reiterated the need for a united front against terrorism.
He has also been supportive of the role of Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU) in dealing with economic and
other related issues. We are proposing the creation
of a forum on Islam against Terrorism, and if we
receive support this will be the right action to take,
the Kazakh leader said. For the EEU which has been
formed only recently focusing on issues of economic
cooperation, it will be a formidable task and challenge
to be an effective organization to deal with task of
combating terrorism in Central Asia.
Lastly, Kazakhstans Foreign Minister Erlan
Idrissov has urged world leaders to unite efforts to
combat the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS)
group. On this issue the Kazakh president Nazarbaev
has made historic speech at the UN in September
2015 highlighting the need to create a Global Anti-
Terrorist Coalition to defeat the threat to the world.
He asserted that the conflict in Syria is the greatest
challenge which needs to be resolved by the
international community. A political settlement in Syria
is the only way to stop the violence and that there is
need to develop universal, anti-terror legal
instruments. He reminded the recent UN Security
Council Resolution on Foreign Terrorist Fighters,
cosponsored by Kazakhstan. This has to be achieved
even as it is a major challenge. It is very important
that both Russia and the Western powers and
particularly the USA have to compromise and
collectively take policy decisions, which is a
challenging task. But there is no alternative to solve
the problem of terrorist threats posed by the ISIS.
 Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
Introduction
Oil has been a major driving force behind foreign
interests, regional and domestic balance of power,
and territorial conflicts in the West Asia. As a result
of the 9/11 terrorist attacks debates on oil and the
United States security agenda have significantly
shifted. If on one side, those opposing US military
interventionism have argued that the war on terror
provided one more convenient cover for a renewed
imperialist oil grab in this region; on the other, links
between oil and terrorism pointed at problems of
governance in oil-producing countries. As the war
on terror became justified as a war of liberation
against oil-funded dictators, the US portrayed its
foreign policy as shifting from ensuring free access
to oil for the world market, to ensuring that oil is
delivering freedom to local populations. Although
engaging the crucial issue of oil governance, there is
yet little evidence given the number of war victims
and potential vested interests that a US policy shift
from free oil to freedom oil is genuine and viable.
The geopolitical and the security environment
in West Asia have undergone dramatic changes
during recent years. Before the Arab uprisings,
Afghanistan and Iraq were considered the centre of
the crisis in West Asia, however the Arab movements
led to the emergence of new focal points of crisis in
various countries of the region, from Syria to Bahrain,
Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Great powers and regional
actors not only have not been able to manage these
crises but also have pursued a strategy with zero-
sum results. Therefore, the new developments have
unprecedentedly increased tensions between regional
powers.Strategic surprises or unexpected events
have taken place which had remarkable impact on
the distribution of power at international or regional
levels. For instance, the collapse of the Soviet Union
and 9/11 can be seen as strategic surprises in the
history which had impact on foreign policy of number
Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
Anil Kamboj
of countries. During the last four years, numbers of
strategic surprises have occurred in the West Asian
region, including the Arab uprisings, the civil war in
Syria, the rapid domination of ISIS over vast territories
in Syria and Iraq and the Saudi Arabian invasion of
Yemen. As this list indicates, recent years have
witnessed many more strategic surprises than any
time in the past and have changed the geopolitical
situation of the region. Today, it is non-state actors
who have become the main sources of strategic
surprises in West Asia in the form of popular
movements or terrorist groups. The change in the
sources of strategic surprises has made crisis
management much more difficult than the past and
has an impact on other parts of the world. Another
emerging development in the West Asia security
environment is the rapid and frequent changes in the
status quo of the actors which can be called a
changing status. In other words, the regional
balance of power has become more unstable than
earlier periods. The primacy of regional actors is
rapidly becoming unstable and winners are becoming
losers. With this in mind, regional actors, facing the
increasing fluctuation of balance of power, will find
their geopolitical positions unstable. Needless to say,
preserving the geopolitical interests in the fluid
balance of power is much more costly than in stable
conditions.
Tension in West Asia
The Sunni-Shiite tension in the Middle East has been
on the rise since the civil war in Iraq that followed
the US-led invasion in 2003. Next were the clashes
between Sunni and Shiite militias in Lebanon in 2008,
while the Shiites in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia stepped
up their campaign for more political and cultural rights
in the two Sunni-ruled monarchies. To be sure,
historical animosities do play a part, but contemporary
sectarian tension in the Middle East is driven primarily
by inequality. It typically thrives in environments
where one religious group has or is perceived to
17
have privileged access to government, wealth or
place in a nations cultural life. The Shiites in Bahrain
want equal access to senior government positions,
while the Sunni minority in Iraq feels side-lined by
the Shiite-dominated central government. But this is
only one side of the story. Growing level of sectarian
tension is also closely linked to the regional cold war
between the Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Shiite power
Iran: to mobilize regional support, Riyadh presents
itself as the protector of Sunni communities, while
Tehran seeks allies among the Shiites in Lebanon in
Iraq.
The wave of anti-government protests that
began in 2011, known as the Arab Spring, only
exacerbated these fault-lines. Not because the Arab
Spring protests were religious in nature, but because
they threatened to shatter the existing political orders
in the Middle East. This alarms both Saudi Arabia
and Iran, and Arabs living in mixed Sunni-Shiite areas
find themselves between a hammer and the anvil.
Trouble Spots in West Asia
Bahrain: Majority Shiite at 65-70% being ruled by
the Al Khalifa, a Sunni royal family. Most senior
positions in government and the security apparatus
are reserved for the Sunni minority. The Arab Spring
has given new life to the mostly Shiite anti-government
movement. Backed by Saudi Arabia, Bahraini
government has crackdown on the uprising, accusing
Iran of inciting the Shiite majority. Bahrains largely
Shiite opposition continues its struggle against the
Sunni royal family, even though it has met little
international support. Here are reasons why crisis in
Bahrain wont go away:
In response to protests demanding greater
democracy that began in February 2011, the ruling
Al-Khalifa family promised constitutional reform
but little has been delivered. Even reform-minded
royals, such as Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al
Khalifa, fear that a rush to democratic reform would
be a start of a slippery slope, allowing the opposition
to one day dispense with the system as a whole. The
Al-Khalifa do not claim absolutist, divinely inspired
authority like the Saudi royals, nor do they preside
over a Syria-style one-party system. Bahrain has multi-
party elections and opposition media. The kingdom
18 World Focus February 2016
remains a highly authoritarian state where elected
legislative bodies hold little control over narrow royal
elite. The fact that senior government posts and
positions in the security apparatus seem almost
exclusively reserved for Sunnis has always added a
distinct sectarian dynamic to Bahraini politics. For its
part, the government consciously encourages
suspicions of protesters alleged loyalties to the Shiite
Iran. Bahraini rulers lack the luxury of abundant oil
reserves to keep the masses happy with massive
welfare programs and cosy government jobs. The
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has pledged $10
billion in budgetary support, but ongoing unrest is
deepening.
The regime may maintain dialogue with
moderate opposition parties, such as al-Wefaq, but
there is no short fix for income disparities and growing
social tension. The principal safety valve of Khalifa
rulers is the staunch support from Saudi Arabia and
other GCC members who sent troops to Bahrain in
March 2011 to quell the unrest. The wealthy Gulf
monarchies simply cannot allow one of their own to
go down, while the US is reluctant to poke at the last
bastion of pro-American rulers in the Middle East.
Unfortunately for Bahrainis, the future of their country
has become firmly embedded in the regional rivalry
between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Bahraini and Saudi
governments have long claimed Irans hand in
domestic unrest, although we have yet to see any
solid evidence of that.
Iraq: Sunni Arab minority approximately at 20%,
Kurds and others 20% are being governed by majority
Shiite Arab (around 60%). Central government is
dominated by Shiite parties, causing resentment
among Sunni Arab groups which controlled the Iraqi
state under ex-leader Saddam Hussein. Attacks on
Iraqi security forces and indiscriminate targeting of
Shiite civilians have mushroomed since the withdrawal
of US troops in December 2011. Extremist Sunni
groups affiliated to Al-Qaeda are trying deliberately
to reignite Sunni-Shiite violence to destabilize the
state.Al Qaeda in Iraq operates under the umbrella
of the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI), a coalition of militant
groups that boast a long track record of fighting the
US troops. The worst days of violence in Iraq may
be over, but the deadly ISI remains a major
destabilizing factor for Iraq and the wider region. Al
Qaeda in Iraq is based in the countrys north-west,
an area populated predominantly by Sunni Arabs, who
held top government positions under former president
Saddam Hussein. ISI thrives on local resentment of
the Shiite-dominated government in the capital
Baghdad, blamed for lack of economic development
and jobs in this part of Iraq. ISIs traditional base is
small Sunni towns in the Anbar province, but its
unofficial capital is now Mosul, Iraqs third largest
city. Since late 2011, ISI has been extending its
operations from Anbar into neighbouring Syria.
ISI has its roots in the Sunni Islamist
insurgency that emerged after the US-led invasion
of Iraq in 2003, when dozens of armed groups
declared a jihad, a holy war, against the new Shiite
government and all foreign troops. Indiscriminate
attacks on Shiite civilians triggered a de facto civil
war in mixed Sunni-Shiite area. Main Sunni jihadist
groups formally joined forces under the ISI umbrella.
Although not all of these groups were affiliated with
Al Qaeda, ISI leadership under the notorious Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi (killed 2006) swore its allegiance
to Osama bin Laden, making the militant coalition an
official Al Qaeda branch in Iraq. US troops
successfully recruited leading Sunni Arab tribes into
the so-called Awakening Councils to fight against
Al Qaeda, after religious extremists alienated the local
population with their brutality and fanaticism. ISI lost
ground in the Anbar province and became increasingly
reliant on foreign jihadists. Iraqi security forces won
the war against the militants, but many Sunnis now
feel side-lined by the government. ISI is tapping into
this discontent, linking new recruits with old militant
networks under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-
Baghdadi.
ISI wants to establish an Islamist state
encompassing all of Iraq, based on Al Qaedas strict
interpretation of the Sunni doctrine. ISIs more
immediate and more realistic objective is to regain its
former strongholds in Anbar province and establish
clear territorial control with parallel government
structures. To this end, it tries to reignite sectarian
conflict and destabilize the Iraqi state. Research by
RAND National Defense Research Institute in late
2010 showed that more than 50% of the funds came
Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
from selling stolen goods, including construction
equipment, generators, and electrical cables. Looting
and extortion is also being carried out. Besides that
now that it has captured number of oil fields, it is
selling crude oil and earning millions of dollars.
The media outreach has a strong sectarian
tone, posing ISI as a protector of Iraqi Sunnis against
both the Shiite Iran and the US. This gives ISI (Islamic
State of Iraq) a distinctly local brand, although the
group still threatens to strike at targets in the US,
Europe and other parts of the region. Violence has
increased sharply since the withdrawal of US troops
in December 2011, with at least one large-scale
attack per month. ISI is systematically subduing local
government structures in its north-eastern strongholds,
while trying to discredit the central government by
orchestrating regular bombings in Baghdad. This
Islamist group appeals to low-income Shiites with a
network of charities. Its armed wing has fought
against the government forces, rival Shiite groups,
and against Sunni militias.
Kuwait: Kuwait is ruled by a Sunni royal family
where the Sunnis consist of almost 70% of the
population and rest are Shiites. Sunni-Shiite relations
are markedly better than elsewhere in the Persian
Gulf, although Shiite politicians complain of anti-Shiite
prejudice. Shiites form part of the merchant elite and
have their representatives in Kuwaits vocal
parliament. Fortunately, in Kuwait sectarianism has
always been a non-starter. Though aware of sectarian
differences, these were never highly politicized. The
Shias in Kuwait has been an integral part of society
before there was even a polity to speak of. They
make up roughly one half of the countrys merchant
class. Unlike in Bahrain, the Shia hold high
government positions and 9 of Kuwaits 50 elected
members of parliament are Shia. Although some
neighbourhoods are becoming more homogenously
Shiite, contrary to the situation in Bahrain, the vast
majority of Sunnis and Shia live beside each other
and have for decades as houses generally stay within
families. Simply put, the Shias are fully Kuwaiti, and
have long been regarded as such by the government
and Kuwaiti Sunnis.
There are two issues for which talking heads
have raised unfounded questions; namely Shia origins
19
and loyalty. Polemical comments about shiites have
played into deliberate othering tactics in efforts to
drive a wedge between Sunni and Shiite communities,
and have unfortunately been picked up by the masses.
Setting aside the historical fact that many Kuwaitis
of Arab origin are Shia and Kuwaitis of Persian origin
are Sunnis; many programs are propagating an idea
that Shia have Iranian origins and are thus an alien
presence.
Anti-Shia sentiment has come at a time for
the Shia in Kuwaiti national politics, as they must juggle
their relations with the populous and the government,
who are themselves at odds. The ruling family, with
whom they have a very good relationship, continues
to front a very unpopular prime minister, leading to
countless stalemates within parliament. Although
Shiite MPs are now in solidarity with those who wish
to oust the corrupt prime minister, the initial
reluctance of some to do so (and potentially jeopardize
relations with the ruling family) was identified as proof
that the Shia does not really want what is best for
Kuwait. Kuwait will not become Bahrain in terms of
outright violence, but if media in Kuwait continues to
draw lines in the sand between the sects, these lines
could very well become perforations over time and
perhaps more quickly if tensions in Bahrain continue
to escalate.
Lebanon: In a country where the Shiites consist of
at 40%, Sunnis 20% of the total population and Small
Alawite community which has settled in the northern
city of Tripoli. (Though no official census since 1932
has been conducted), top positions in government are
divided strictly along the confessional lines. Shiites
are only entitled to the position of the parliament
speaker, but they control by far the strongest armed
militia (Hezbollah). The uprising in Syria has greatly
exacerbated sectarian tension in Lebanon. Lebanons
Sunnis sympathize with, and in some cases aid, the
largely Syrian rebels, who are setting up a base in
northern Lebanon. The Shiite Hezbollah is allied to
the Syrian regime and is backed by Iran. Violence
has flared in Tripoli between Sunnis and a local Alawite
minority which sides with the Syrian regime.
The impact of the Syrian uprising on Lebanon
will be as closely watched as the events in Syria itself.
20 World Focus February 2016
No other two Arab countries have their destinies so
closely intertwined, and no country in the region is as
divided on the issue of the Syrian uprising as Lebanon.
Overwhelming support for Syrian government comes
from the close alliance between Assad and Hezbollah,
the main Lebanese Shiite party. Vast majority of
Lebanese Sunnis sympathize with the largely Sunni-
led uprising in Syria. The Christians are divided
between political parties that rely on Assads support
and those strongly opposed to Syrias influence in
Lebanon. The stakes are high for Hezbollah which
controls the largest and best-equipped armed force
in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Syrian refugees, army
deserters and rebel groups stream to the largely Sunni
northern Lebanon, where they can count on substantial
local support. But pro-Assad Lebanese groups are
unlikely to sit back and watch the area become a
rear base for Syrian rebels, making northern Lebanon
a proxy battleground of the Syrian conflict.
Saudi Arabia: The Shiite minority about 10-15%
populates the oil-rich Eastern Province. All power
rests in the hands of Al Saud, a Sunni royal dynasty.
The government is cracking down on largely peaceful
Shiite protests for greater religious and cultural
freedom and better access to government
employment. State officials blame Iran for the unrest,
although there is yet no evidence of Tehrans
involvement. It is the richest State in the region.
Syria: The majority is of Sunni Arab (around 70%)
and the Alawite are in minority (10-15%). Ruling
Assad family belongs to the Alawite minority, an
offshoot of Shiite Islam. Alawites control top positions
in the army and the intelligence apparatus. At its
core, the civil war in Syria is not a religious conflict.
The dividing line is ones loyalty to the Assads
government. However, some religious communities
tend to be more supportive of the regime than the
others, fuelling mutual suspicion and religious
intolerance in many parts of the country.
Syria is an Arab country with a Kurdish and
Armenian minority. In term of religious identity, most
of the Arab majority belongs to the Sunni branch of
Islam, with several Muslim minority groups associated
with the Shiite Islam. The Christians from different
denominations represent at least 10% of the
population. The emergence among the anti-
government rebels of hardliner Sunni Islamist militias
fighting for an Islamic state has alienated the
minorities. The outside interference from the Shiite
Iran and the Sunni Saudi Arabia makes matter worse,
feeding into the wider Sunni-Shiite tension in the
Middle East. President Bashar al-Assad belongs to
the Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shiite Islam
specific to Syria (with small population pockets in
Lebanon).
The Assad family has been in power since
1970 and although it presided over a secular regime,
many Syrians think Alawites have enjoyed privileged
access to top government jobs and business
opportunities. After the outbreak of the anti-
government uprising in 2011, the vast majority of
Alawites rallied behind the regime, fearful of
discrimination if the Sunni majority came to power.
Most of the top rank in the army and the intelligence
services are Alawites, making the community as a
whole closely identified with the government camp
in the civil war. A majority of Syrians are Sunni Arabs,
but they are politically divided.
True, most of the fighters in the
opposition Free Syrian Army come from the Sunni
provincial heartlands, and many Sunni Islamists dont
consider Alawites as real Muslims. The armed
confrontation between largely Sunni rebels and the
Alawite-led government troops has led some
observers to see Syrias civil war as the conflict
between Sunnis and Alawites. Most of the regular
government soldiers fighting the rebels are Sunni
recruits (though thousands have defected to the
opposition), and Sunnis hold leading positions in the
government, the bureaucracy, the ruling Baath Party,
and the business community.Some businessmen and
middle class Sunnis support the regime because they
want to protect their material interests.
The war in Syria has attracted number of
countries. Russia and Iran are supporting President
Bashar al-Assad. The US is supporting the Sunni
rebels. To create more confusion, Germany, France
and Britain are fighting and trying to destroy the ISIS.
Russia says that it is also fighting against the ISIS
but it is also supporting Assad in fighting against the
Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
rebels. ISIS has been created out of the Sunni rebels
in Syria and Sunni rebels from Iraq with its leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. They have been joined by
highly radicalisededucated and technically qualified /
trained youth from different countries. These persons
are motivating, brain washing and radicalising the
youth from all over the world through their social
networking and propaganda, to join the IS in Syria
for what they call as Jihad. Large numbers of youth
from all over have been joining the IS. Most surprising
was that the Muslims from European countries have
joined the IS. About 1200 trained fighters from
Columbia have travelled from such far off country to
join the IS. We can say that while communication
technology has done wonders, it has also enabled
terrorist networks to encrypt their communications
effectively. Due to the fighting in Syria thousands of
Syrian have fled the country and have entered
European countries as refugees creating a big chaos
and economic crisis in Europe.
Yemen: Zaydis, a Yemeni offshoot of the Shiite
Islam, form around 45% of the population, the rest
are Sunni. Political alliances are built primarily on
regional/tribal loyalties and commonality of interests,
rather than religious affiliation. Religious differences
never played a central role in Yemeni politics. The
long-serving President Ali Abdullah al-Saleh was
himself of Zeydi extraction. However, a rebellion
against the state by a Zeydi clan, the Houthis, and
the menace of Al Qaeda-affiliated Sunni extremists,
has the potential to exacerbate religious fault-lines.
This rebel has attracted number of countries who
have jumped into the fight. Iran is supporting Houthis
with arms equipment and other aid. Whereas the
Sunni dominated countries like Saudi Arabia are
supporting the Sunni clans with all the aid and
equipment. India and number of other countries have
pulled out their citizens from Yemen. This has also
attracted number of radicalised Islamist groups who
have also jumped in. People have been fleeing from
Yemen to other neighbouring countries.
Global Fight Against Extremism
During 2015 Islamist terrorist activities has been long
and grim. In any given month, people have been killed
in the name of a pernicious ideology. This spreading
terror is not confined to the atrocities committed by
21
the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria; it has become a
global problem. For that reason, the international
community needs a comprehensive strategy to defeat
Islamist extremismone in which force, diplomacy
and development work together to achieve a more
stable world. The most urgent pillar of this strategy is
dismantling the Islamic State, which must be
eliminated not just in Syria and Iraq, but also in Libya
and everywhere else. All the countries must do what
is necessary to defeat a group that has seized territory
in five countries and declared a new state ruled by
fanatical ideologues. Because the group cannot be
negotiated out of existence, a broad group of allies
with the right political strategymust defeat it
everywhere. Victory over the Islamic State will be
only a first, albeit essential, step to a just outcome in
Syria, which means a settlement that allows the
country to progress and fully respects its minorities.
Moreover, the Islamic State is merely the most virulent
manifestation of an extremism that has afflicted the
world for decades. We must construct a global force
able to fight extremists whereverand whenever
they try to gain a foothold. The security threat from
the Islamic State is not at our door; it is within our
home, and we have an overwhelming interest in
eradicating it in the short and medium terms. In the
longer term, we must recognize that the problem is
the ideology of extremism itself. Islam, as practised
and understood by the great majority of believers, is
a peaceful and honourable faith. But we cannot keep
denying the nature of the problem we face. The
political leaders should think of West Asia and Islam
as being in a process of transition: West Asia towards
rule-based and religiously tolerant societies and Islam
towards its rightful place as a faith of progress and
humanity. Seen in this way, this is not a mess to avoid,
but a life-and-death struggle in which whole worlds
fundamental interests are at stake. Also, the leaders
must recognize in the coming year the crucial
importance of resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict.
It would also contribute to good global and interfaith
relationsand powerfully reassert the principle of
peaceful coexistence on which the international order
rests. There is also a need to forge a foreign policy
by the political leaders that embodies the lessons of
the period since 9/11. Such a policy would recognize
the need for active engagementrefined, rather than
incapacitated, by our experience. The fight against
22 World Focus February 2016
extremism will not onlyrequire force, but it will require
education and cooperation too.
Russias Intervention
President Vladimir Putins decision to intervene in
Syria marked a major turning point in Russian foreign
policy in 2015. Over the past 15 years, Putin has
increasingly relied on the use of military power to
achieve his domestic and foreign policy objectives.
Putins Syria gambit was the logical, if dramatic, next
step in Russias increasingly aggressive foreign policy.
Putin hopes for solidarity and support from the
international community for his actions in Syria. Pro-
Kremlin commentators point to US secretary of state
John Kerrys recent trip to Moscow as proof that
military intervention to fight terrorism in Syria has
ended Russias international isolation and generated
new respect for its standing as a responsible global
power. Russia is back, so the argument goes, because
the world needs Russia. In the long run, Russia could
become a partner in the global fight against terrorism.
And, in principle, the US, the European Union and
countries around the world should welcome Russian
cooperation in this mission. In practice, however,
several key short-term issues must be resolved before
the long-term goal of cooperation with Russia can be
achieved. Firstly, Russia, which has intervened to
defend its client, President Bashar al-Assad, must
stop bombing Syrian opposition forces supported by
the US and its coalition, and start fighting the Islamic
State. In the first weeks of the Russian bombing
campaign, the strategy was obvious: eliminate all third
parties in the civil war and thereby force the world to
choose between the lesser of two evils, Assad or the
Islamic State.
Secondly, Putin must engage more seriously
in the global efforts to launch a political transition
process in Syria. Assad cannot stay. He could serve
in an interim, transitional role, as some dictators have
done in other transitions from authoritarian rule.
Moreover, the vast majority of victims of Syrian
government military operations are civilians, not
terrorists. As a demonstration of Russias influence
over the regime, Putin should first pressure Assad to
stop killing civilians. Thirdly, Russia must change its
bombing methods. Too many civilians are dying.
These types of attacks by Russia generate more
inspiring footage for jihadi channels on YouTube
exactly what the Islamic State wants. Fourthly, Putin
needs to stop the flow of fighters from Russia into
Syria. Even Russian estimates suggest that by
September 2015, some 2,400 Russian citizens had
joined the Islamic State. Finally, to be a useful partner
in Syria, Russia must stop expecting concessions from
the US on Ukraine. Such linkage will never work.
Geopolitical Situation
Within hours of the execution of the prominent Shiite
dissident Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on 02 January 2016
by Saudi Arabia, the Shiite theocracy in Iran took it
as a deliberate provocation by its regional rival and
displayed their anger on the streets of Tehran. There
were demonstrations in front of the Saudi Embassy
in Tehran and its consulate in the eastern Iranian city
of Mashhad. The angry protesters set the embassy
ablaze with firebombs, climbed the fences and
vandalized parts of the building.After the incident,the
Saudi government and its staunch ally Bahrain, and
Sudan, severed diplomatic ties, giving Iranian
ambassadors 48 hours to leave.Bahrain one of Irans
most important regional trading partners. The United
Arab Emirates reduced its representation to the level
of charge daffaires. Saudi Arabias move to isolate
Iran raises the spectre of deepening conflicts in the
volatile Middle East after the biggest meltdown in
relations between the two regional powers in almost
three decades. The clash exposes again the fault lines
in the worlds tinderbox and risks worsening conflicts
in Yemen and Syria, where Sunni-dominated Saudi
Arabia and Shiite Iran are fighting proxy wars. The
widening rift follows Saudi criticism of the US-led
deal last year over Irans nuclear program. It also
comes as the collapse in the oil price strains domestic
finances in a region that accounts for more than half
of global reserves. Markets reacted, the oil price rose,
while stock markets in China, Japan and across
Europe tumbled on the first full trading day of 2016.
While concern was mainly about the Chinese
economy, the prospect of more strains in the Middle
East initially contributed to the turmoil. Oil futures at
one point were up more than 3% in London to $38.50
before retreating. Now, Iranian leaders are suddenly
forced to reckon with whether they played into the
Saudis hands, finding themselves mired in a new crisis
at a time they had been hoping to emerge from
Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
international sanctions as an accepted global
player. Iran might have capitalized on global outrage
at the executions by Saudi Arabia, but instead it finds
itself once again characterized by adversaries as a
provocateur in the region and abroad. Besides Nimrs
case, there have been several flash points between
Iran and Saudi Arabia in recent months, with the
nuclear deal and the wars in Syria and Yemen driving
most of the tension. Within Iran, there was also intense
anger over the Saudis handling of the annual
pilgrimage to Mecca.Then, in September, hundreds
of Iranians were among those killed in a stampede by
pilgrims near Mecca.Saudis opposition to the nuclear
deal and the lifting of sanctions against Iran has driven
more hard feelings here. Many Iranians were quick
to point out Saudi Arabias alignment of interests with
Israel, a hated enemy. As per Hamid Reza Taraghi, a
political analyst and conservative politician, both the
countries are opposed to the nuclear deal; both want
it to fail. There is tension within Iran also for the
nuclear deal, which some criticized as giving away
too much to foreign interests. Their Parliamentary
elections are due in February.
Conclusion
All the world will have to unite together to solve the
crisis in West Asia Region. The fight against
extremism will require force, unity and cooperation
among all interested nations. It will require education,
so that all nations to forget their personnel interests
and unite together. It will require cooperationnot
least in the messy business of real-world
diplomacy.The year 2015 was difficult, punctuated
by declining growth forecasts, horrific terror attacks,
massive refugee flows and serious political challenges,
with populism on the rise in West Asia. In this region,
chaos and violence has continued to proliferate with
devastating consequences. As a result, productivity
growth is slowing and the region is not progressing.
The key to managing the disruptions and assuaging
peoples fears is governance. People saw the world
fall apart a century ago not because human
knowledge stopped advancing, but because of
widespread governance and policy failures. As 2016
starts, we must focus on adapting governance, in all
of its economic and political dimensions, to the 21st
century, so our resources and knowledge produce
inclusive progress, not violent conflict.
23
 Navigating Terrorism Labyrinth
Introduction
Engendering fear to be in command of resources is
in vogue since the dawn of human history. But
extreme fear by use of violence and threats
corroborating terror as a form of state sponsored
political violence was displayed in France, during Le
terreur when systematic use of violence to attain
political ends was codified by Robespierre. He
deemed it as emanation of virtue that delivers
prompt, severe and inflexible justice, as a
consequence of the general principle of democracy
applied..to most pressing needs of France (1) In his
words If the basis of popular government in
peacetime is virtue, its basis in a time of revolution is
virtue and terror- virtue, without which terror would
be barbaric; and terror, without which virtue would
be impotent, (2) Since then terrorism has manifested
in different forms, morphing into more radical,
devastating, ruthless, organized and militarized
activity with superb technical and propagation skills.
In recent history the machinations to end the cold
war and collapse of Soviet Union bestirred organized
groups attacking liberalization. Governments
retaliated by the use of hard and soft power but their
number multiplied in all parts of the globe in different
names using the same tactics -that is violence. In
recent history US intervention in Afghanistan and
Kuwait Iraq feud resulted in chain of violent events
causing death and destruction beyond imagination
.Apparently it is associated with Islam though no
religion believes in violation of human dignity and
rights especially the Right to Life and Right to
Security.
State terrorism originating during the Reign
of Terror in France has not subsided but morphed
into subtle plans as rulers of all types have used
oppressive and suppressive measures to control the
ruled or a section of it. Ever since the crusades
religion motivated fanatics .This is manifested in its
worst form in the present century as factions of the
same religion use violence against the other. Ideology
24 World Focus February 2016
Prof. Snehalata Panda
has tremendous influence in shaping the mindset
.Irrespective of organizational base resorting to
violence remains unchanged. Terrorists defend their
action as rational but it is undeniably irrational when
individuals fall back on a violent strategy for satiating
pleasure or even to achieve a political goal. Now terror
is used as means for defending issues like
environment protection as well as to sell narcotics
which are not necessarily political issues .It is also
used for political issues like secession of a territory
from a dominant state for alleged negligence and
marginalization .The ultimate aim being traumatizing
it uses any means that fits into its perceived effect.
Terrorism has been studied extensively since
1970s as a field of International relations. Interestingly
the study of terrorism is enriched with Political
Science approach. Historical, Sociological, Economic
and Psychological approaches have unraveled various
dimensions of the phenomenon. Psychology offers
impressive analysis of the motivations preceding
terrorist action. But consensus is lacking on a uniform
definition perhaps because the nature of the problem
is complex though effect is more or less same. This
paper attempts to critically examine quite a few
definitions but inadequate to explain the menace. It is
an extremely complex issue involving wide variety of
people, their country of origin and adoption as well as
multifarious causes. Clubbing all its manifestations
together makes the link tenuous. It is therefore, argued
that the features accompanying its various
manifestations are better to explain the complex issues
in international relations in general and terrorism in
particular.
Exploring definitions
Over the years terrorism has assumed horrific
dimensions with specific characteristics which
frustrate attempts to dovetail with a single definition.
Almost all definitions have focused on reasons for
terrorism involving wide variety of people, their
country of origin and adoption .Powerful states use
violent means to tighten their control .Colonial history
is replete with instances of invaders using violent
means to consolidate their rule .Terror may be used
by the people and by the ruler with different
approaches. Therefore, assigning a single reason to
terrorism is difficult. The convention of experts to
deliberate on root causes of terrorism organized by
the Norwegian Government in 2003 identifies it as a
strategy of combat; it is premeditated use of violence
against non combatants for psychological effect of
fear on others than the immediate target groups.
But there is lack of consensus about groups to be
identified as terrorist. It has analysed four levels of
causation namely structural, facilitator, motivational
and triggering. But the causes seem to be linked
with one another ultimately leading to action. The
reason for emergence of a terrorist group may not
remain same over a period of time and individuals
joining the group might continue to be in the group for
different reasons at different times. Ethnographic
conflicts and ideological conflict lead to violence as a
pressure tactic. According to Gupta ideology and
political entrepreneurs motivate the terrorist who
are categorized as true believers, mercenaries and
captive participants. The mercenaries involve for
achieving their selfish interests and the captives get
into out of fear. (5)On the basis of public opinion poll
conducted on a selected sample, Maleckova
concluded that economic deprivation may not be a
strong motivator for terrorist activity. (6) Poverty and
lack of education are usually considered as leading
people to extremism and indulge in criminal activity
including joining terrorist organization .But this is not
ubiquitous as educated youth have indulged in
terrorist activities. There may be multiple reasons for
such action particularly if rewards are more than
punishment. Age is a major determinant .Suicide
bombers are inspired by words such as martyrdom
for the sake of ones religion and nation. Retaliation
following a terrorist activity stimulates the psyche of
people to join groups that assure revenge against
victimization. Horgan views terrorism as a complex
process as no single reason can be attributed to
involvement in terrorism. Hijacking of planes and
kidnapping foreigners are violent pressure exerted
by terrorists for political response from a government.
(7) Though the state supported as well as non state
terrorists assess the possible consequences but it
seldom turns out to be in their expected direction .In
Navigating Terrorism Labyrinth
other words actions might be based on inadequate
information and knowledge where as reactions may
not be in the expected manner.
United Nations (UN) defines it as an act
destroying or injuring civilian lives by individuals
and groups independently ... for some political goal.
But this definition seems to exclude state sponsored
terrorist activity. Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI) defines it as the unlawful use of force and
violence against persons or property to intimidate or
coerce a government, the civilian population or any
segment thereof, in furtherance of political and social
objectives. All the member nations of UN do not
agree to accept a uniform definition of terrorism
though there is over all consensuses on its main
elements. United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
resolution 1267 allows states to eliminate safe havens
of terror, disrupt terror networks, financing channels
and their cross border movements.
A new phase has begun in the method of
terrorizing with the use of social media and electronic
communication by the terrorist groups. The San
Bernardino killing of fourteen people at an office party
by a radicalised Islamic couple is described as home
grown terrorism. To curb such menace US would
revive legislation that requires social media to inform
government about posts in various social network sites
deemed to promote terrorist activity. (13) It has
also become a campaign issue in the 2016 U S
presidential election. One important fall out of such
terrorist attack is increase in sale of guns. People
defend purchase of guns for self protection. Home
grown terrorism has defied intelligence agencies who
never gave warning about the attack. President
Obama has appealed to reach out to Muslim
communities to help indentify threats, stimulate
contrary Muslim voices to counter extremist
propaganda, encouraging people to watch one another
etc. But this will revive debate on privacy versus
security.
Features
Understanding features of terrorism for its relative
expedience to describe the phenomenon is a better
approach. These are mainly motives, violence and
creating public fear. Motives are basically social,
economic and political. It can be domestic or home
25
grown, originating and indulging in violence within a
particular country. Obtaining killer gadgets crosses
the domestic boundary and it requires joint action
between the country, the supplier and the supply chain.
In the process the terrorists may target all the countries
involved thereby spreading domestic terrorism to a
foreign country. This in turn leads to combined action
affecting bilateral and trilateral relationship with
gestures solicited form a powerful country as the case
with cross border terrorism. Counter terror partnership
is forged between countries for security of their
personnel and property in foreign countries, the most
recent being India Japan counter terror partnership.
(17) India and US have agreed to finalise a pact for
enhanced intelligence sharing and exchange of
information of terror watch list.(18) A Saudi Arab
led coalition of 34 nations in Asia and Africa is being
formed to fight terrorism which will work with other
countries and international institutions to support
counter terrorism. Saudi Arab is fighting the Shia
Houthi rebels in Yemen .It is also a part of US led
coalition to fight Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
(19)
In the present century transnational terrorism
that is terrorist violence with international impact has
been the subject of academic deliberations. Terrorists
address a wider audience with well planned and
executed strategy .Thus three categories of factors
are discernible from its strategy that is the victim, the
perpetrator and the audience. It is difficult to identify
the victim and perpetrator as they may or may not be
innocent people. Perpetrators are defined as
individuals and sub national groups but states in some
cases might support such individuals and groups. The
audience may be few or spread across the world
(20)
The motives are changing over a period of
time. Much of it was for setting up a state by an
ethnic group when secession was not allowed through
a democratic process. Now it is motivated by several
ideologies, religious suppression, intolerance, social
injustice and other issue specific goals. Mode of
operation too has changed. The fear is that such
organizations will devastate the world by using nuclear
device. In fact, such an apprehension resulted in US-
Iraq war and the consequences of the war continue
to scare the world with forceful retaliation by ISIS.
26 World Focus February 2016
Political motivation may be articulated against
restrictions imposed by a government perceived to
be unacceptable .It may also be to alter the political
relationships mostly on ideological basis .Leaders
champion certain ideologies attracting good number
of followers who justify terrorist means to achieve
their ends. Planned attacks threaten communities,
institutions and people in power. Leaders with a
mission to ensure revolutionary changes in the society
and polity justify terror as a means to achieve political
ends. Their followers resort to violence where as the
leader remains a remote counselor inspiring their action
whose influence flows from the resources under his
control.
Use of violent means to achieve political ends
excludes wars of various types, civil as well as
international because it is less organized and limited
in scale. Scholars have attempted to differentiate
between assassination and terrorism mainly basing
specific target in the former and indiscriminate killing
in the latter. Alex Schimd describes terrorism as
anxiety inspiring method of repeated violent action
employed by (semi) clandestine individual, group or
state actors for idiosyncratic, criminal or political
reasons the direct target of violence are not the
main targets. (21)
ISIS has aligned the notch on history of the
past century with the present expressing ideology as
the primary motive for terrorist activity. It is inspiring
people of Islamic origin by stirring their consciousness
about the Caliphate. The eighth century Abbasid
Caliph Harun al - Rashid is epitomized as the most
successful ruler .His success might be due to
toleration as a principle of governance than the tactics
which the ISIS has resorted to. (22) It has claimed to
have killed home bound Russian tourists, youngsters
enjoying a rock concert in Paris, an office party in
US and underground commuters in London. The
group calls it a jihad to resurrect the caliphate that
was dismembered after the end of World War I. On
the face of it, its activities world over forebode
beginning of World War III. (23) Historically both
Christianity and Islam occupied territory and
converted people to their faith .Plundering and killing
were rampant by both. Caliphate controlled Byzantine
North Africa and Andalusia by the early eighteenth
century. The Mongols ransacked Central Asia and
South Eastern Europe .Later the Ottoman Empire
claiming to be the Caliphate controlled Southern
Europe, Northern Africa and a major portion of
Central Asia. It collapsed after World War I .The
British and French had installed rulers in Syria, Iraq,
Libya, Trans Jordan etc. where dictators over rode
the popular will that in turn created dynastic rule.
Different factions of Islam indulged in war financed
by oil money. Now threats to US, Europe and Russia
are the Islamic State (IS), a breakaway group of al
Qaeda which reiterates rivalry for supremacy in
different centuries through action and counteraction.
For example US led coalition claims to have wrested
back territory from the IS and eliminated some top
leaders .Its forces have cut off supply lines and put
pressure on Iraqi, capital of the proposed Caliphate.
IS asserts to expand Islamic territory not only
where US humiliated and killed Saddam Husain but
across the middle east and parts of Africa reviving
the Caliphate.US sources revealed that there are many
groups within the al Qaeda one such being al Qaeda
of Indian Subcontinent. Presently the ISIS is the most
influential and irrepressible among terrorist groups
with strong foreign recruits, mastery in electronic
communication and sound financial status. (24)
Reportedly it is generating $80 billion per month to
finance its expenses about fifty percent of which
comes from taxation and confiscation, around 43
percent is generated by oil and the rest from sale of
electricity and donations. (25)
The psychology of terrorists has been
explored by Ross who has identified seven approaches
to understand mind of the terrorists. (27)Assuming
that none by itself can explain the psychology of the
terrorist he has integrated five core features in the
model etiological features of terrorism listed in order
of importance(28) This model is fixed into historical
and structural factors that define the context. It is
drawn on several hypotheses about causal paths
which could facilitate further research but excluded
political, ideological, socio economic and organizational
factors. According to Crenshaw terrorist behavior is
a strategic choice.(29) For Hoffman a terrorist is a
violent intellectual ,prepared to use and indeed
committed in using force in the attainment of
goals(30) All such behavior seeps out from mind
set built upon information they access and analyse
to suit their perceptions.
Navigating Terrorism Labyrinth
Radicalisation is a learning process of people
committed to ideology which moves through a
continuum beginning with alienation, joining a group
that feeds mind with ideas similar to the idea of the
person, training and action. Usually young people
plunge into action while the elderly keep on infusing
the ideology and training.(31) Now the terrorists have
weapons to inflict severe violence on its target as
well as technological skills to counter the
target.(32)Carter et al evinced catastrophic
terrorism was proved in al Qaedas attack on the
twin towers of New York . IS is the principal threat
to US, Europe and Russia and many other countries.
Its sub groups are active in almost all parts of the
world. Now the terrorists have weapons to inflict
severe violence on its target as well as technological
skills to counter the target. (33) At least eight militant
groups are identified as the franchisees of ISIS. These
are categorized as affiliates that pose the most
immediate threat to the United States and Europe.
(34)
The strategy to overcome the menace has
been mostly violent though it changes keeping in view
the strategy of the perpetrator .Now Pentagon has
proposed for building up a string of military bases in
Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East .for
collecting intelligence and carrying out strikes against
the terrorist groups far flung affiliate.(35) US and
Russia are closing in to impose tough sanctions against
countries doing business with IS and expediting
process in the UNSC for a political settlement of the
Syrian problem .(36)
Concluding Observations
Terrorists and their organizations are proliferating
irrespective of the nature of society and polity.
Economic reasons are inadequate to explain as it is
present in developed as well as developing countries.
Authoritarian and democratic political systems,
ethnically diverse and homogenous societies too have
experienced terrorist violence. In all these contexts
the psychological underpinnings seem to be credible
reasons for the perpetrator and the victim who survive
with consistent trepidation but insufficient to
formulate a comprehensive definition.
Terrorist organizations have changed in
structure, outreach and method though violence as a
27
means to achieve their goal remains unchanged. They
are no more secret but operate under cover to elude
punishment. In its long history terrorism has muted
in form, multiplied and almost all societies are scared
of its menace .In twentieth century the strategy,
motivation and weapons of the terrorists have
changed from what they were in the preceding
century. Left wing terrorists and anarchists have
disappeared with intensive state action. Its base is
now ethnic and therefore the support base is extensive.
Terrorist organizations in the middle- east and South
Asia have different orientations .The comparatively
younger members indulge in violence and the older
members guide their action through their economic,
political and intellectual clout.
States with strong democratic credential with
sound administration are as much victims of terrorism
as those with weak democratic governments Opinion
is almost unanimous on US track record in the region
from overconfident intervention to reinvent Iraq to
the underwhelming effort to end Syrias civil war.
The region is paying for the pitfalls of oppression under
western backed dictators followed by western
intervention which could not usher in a stable
government. For example US initiated consociational
democracy in Iraq is afflicted by strengthening of
localized centres of power rather than emergence
of a strong central authority .It is a soft theocracy
where the support of the clerics is unavoidable for
political survival of the ruling elite.
May be the past is recreated to ensure that
the values of present leadership are suitably
accommodated in the society. The clash between
modernity and tradition is a continuous process and
collision between both has been witnessed in every
age. Men fight and lose the battle, and the thing
they fought for comes about in spite of their defeat,
and when it turns to be not what they meant, other
men have to fight for what they meant under another
name. But the fight must avoid destruction of life
and property of people as every step towards progress
means improvement in life.
It is the new technology of communication
that has globalised threats accruing from the clash
compelling innovation of new modes of operation to
succeed in subduing each other but the hydra-headed
28 World Focus February 2016
monsters seldom satisfied in a state of hibernation. It
is proliferating because of the Medias of
communication and easy availability of weapons both
conventional and ultra modern. Terrorists now have
their own resources obtained through clandestine
economic processes.
In the present century religious fanaticism
has manifested in its worst form and a civilisational
war between the Christians and Muslims has spread
across the globe. Such terrorists are far more difficult
to detect which exacerbates the fear that they could
use means that was never used in the past.
Proliferating use of online services like banking and
business, information sharing and communicating
make societies vulnerable to terrorist attack by net
miscreants thereby upsetting the state and society.
(39) The technical expertise among the teenaged
people barren of ethics is more dangerous as a single
or miniscule number can devastate the society. (40)
Social network is an important media to access
information, ideas, and new recruits. Modern war is
net war, a lower intensity battle by terrorists, criminals
and extremists with a networked organizational
structure (41) Terrorists will disable people by
technological devastation by attacking networks and
accessing classified material stored in network
devices. This will cause drop in business, consumer
spending, travel, banking services, security
establishment and so on.
Strategy to counter terrorism is more
combative than preventive. The number of people
killed by terrorists in Syria, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
is many more compared to those killed in Europe and
US. Backward economies perceive it as imperialism
by proxy. The impact of colonial rule and actions on
the eve of their independence to a great extent has
shaped the mind sets of the people in these countries.
Mutual rivalry between Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey
and other countries in the region has whetted the
problem and US has intervened for its own interest.
In a hierarchical world system comparatively poor
countries are not treated as equal with their developed
counterparts. True, it is a sad world where all lives
are not yet equivalent, where some can be killed
without mourning our initial responsibility, in a
pragmatic sense, is to our families and friends: when
our Third World societies fail, our towns collapse, it

is our failure, not that of Europe or America, no matter
what their vested interests (42) The mind boggling
question is the propriety of ethnic, social, political,
economic and religious boundaries that create
differences among people in a society. Measures to
shape the world view in an uniform pattern according
to the needs of any one government is resented by
people .They rally round specific ideas to overcome
such attempts .Academic deliberations on equanimity
and mind of the perpetrator seldom delve down to
the level of practice in commonplace interactions.
Intolerance is the ultimate fall out in societies where
the distinctions are reiterated in all types of
relationships ignoring the humanitarian values.
Terrorism can be understood by Action -
Reaction Syndrome. Deep rooted causes shape the
mindset of the terrorist for indulging in violent action
.It is the manifestation of careful preparation seeded
with consciously selected targets .More often than
not the response from government follows extremely
devastating action. As the terrorist groups have
dissimilar reasons at different times and in different
locations the response may not be successful by the
government /the ultimate target. It is not occurrence
but recurrence in different situations by different
groups whose motivations and methods do not follow
a uniform pattern.
References:
1. Maximilien Francois Marie Isidore de Robespierre principles de morale politique,
speech delivered to French National convention,5 Feb,1794at http://members.jycos.fr/
discours/1794.htm
2. Robespierre, speech in French National Convention, 1794, Online Etymology Dictionary,
2010, Douglas Harper. The English word terror originates in the Latin word terrere behaviors are shaped. 5. cost-benefit calculations by which terrorist acts are justified as the
which means frighten. French spell it as Terrour .Frightfulness was used in Britain for
deliberate policy of terrorizing enemy non combatants, German Schrecklichkeit, Online
Etymology Dictionary, 2010.
3. Barri Cordes et al, Trends in International Terrorism,1982-83, Rand, See also B.M Jenkins,
Acts of International Terrorism-Comparative Political Studies,1982cps.sgaepub.com,
B.M.Jenkins,The New Age of terrorism,www.rand.org,2006, pp117-130,Bruce Hoffman,
Inside Terrorism, Columbia University Press ,1998., Austin T Turk et al, Terrorism, Counter
Terrorism and Internal Wars: Examining International Political
Violence,2013,CRCpress.,Nachman Ben Yehuda, Terror, Media and Moral Boundaries
www2.gsu.edu/~crirxf/TMMB%20-%20Ben-Yehuda.pdf
4.Thomas J Badey , Defining International Terrorism: A Pragmatic Approach in terrorism
and Political Violence10(1)-90-107,March 1998, Walter Laqueur, The New Terrorism
,Fanatics and the Arms of Mass Destruction, Oxford University press, 2000.
5.Deepak K.Gupta,Exploring Roots of Terrorism in Tore Bjorgo (ed) Root Causes of Terrorism,
Myths ,Reality and Ways Forward, Routledge
6. Jitka Maleckova, Impoverished terrorists: stereotypes or reality? in Tore Bjorgo (ed) Root
Causes of Terrorism
7. John Horgan, The Social and Psychological characteristics of terrorism and terrorists,
Tore Bjorgo (ed) Root Causes of Terrorism
8. Ad Hoc committee works on the basis that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Till April 2005 it has adopted three treaties. These are 1.the International Convention for the
Suppression of Terrorist Bombing, 2.the International Convention for the Suppressing of
Financing of Terrorism, and 3.International Convention for the suppression of Acts of Nuclear
Terrorism which were adopted by the General Assembly in 1997, 1999 and 2005 respectively.
9.See Chalk,P., The Liberal Democratic response to Terrorism, Terrorism and Political
Violence, 1995,West European Terrorism and Counter Terrorism, The evolving
Dynamic,1996,Pallgrave Macmillan ,John Horgan, Kurt Braddock, Terrorism Studies, A
Reader,Routledge,2012
10. Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, Columbia University press, 2006.
Navigating Terrorism Labyrinth
11.Burke Kappler, Small Favours :Chapter 154,Hebeas Corpus and the New Federalism
After the Anti Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act,1996,The States and the Right to
Counsel, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology,2000,vol.90,Issue 2.
12. See also Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, Columbia University Press.2006.
13. Obama to Silicon Valley: Help fight terror online, Business Standard, (Bhubaneswar)
8Dec, 2015, p6,
14. Help Combat Terrorist Use of social Media: Obama Appeals to tech Cos,
WWW.ECONOMIC TIMES .COM.Dec, 2015, P13.
15. The Times of India, (Bhubaneswar,) 16 December, 2015.
16. San Bernardino attacker Malik faced three extensive national security and criminal back
ground screenings by home land security officials, visa was checked by State Department
and another round of security check was conducted while coming to the US to marry Farok
and applying for green card. But security checks missed her Jihadi posts on social media
sites.
17. India will train Japanese counter terror officials as Japan has limited capabilities to
counter terrorism .Japanese national have been targeted in certain countries in Asia by
Islamic State and other extremist groups. It has robust economic presence in several countries
and the recent killing of its people in Syria, Tunisia Bangladesh etc. compelled to forge a
partnership with India to counter terrorism. The Economic Times, (Bhubaneswar) 14
December, 2015p.4
18. US rethinking strategy on home grown terror, Business Standard (Bhubaneswar), 7 Dec,
2015. India and US will sign the Logistics Support Agreement which allows each other to
their military bases and ports .There is also positive indication to sign Communication and
Information security Memorandum of Agreement and Basic Exchange and Cooperation
Agreement, The Economic Times, (Bhubaneswar) 21 December 2015, p.1 An extensive
Counter Terrorism Cooperation between India and Russia will be put in place during Indian
prime ministers visit to Russia. Ibid .p.4
19. The Times of India, (Bhubaneswar) 14.December, 2015, p8.
20. Different groups of terrorists follow different methods to exhibit violence. Therefore,
approaches to deal with the problem must begin with dissuading from hatred for the enemy
and violence during childhood.
Jerrold M Post in Tore Bjorgo(ed) Root Causes of Terrorism, Myths Realities and Ways
Forward, Routlage,2005.French authorities suspect that IS in Syria planned the 13 November
2015 attack in Molenbeek ,Belgium in order to punish crusader France for its air strikes
against Muslims in the lands of the Caliphate. On December 14th 2015 a teacher was
stabbed in France. The Islamic States French language magazine Dar-el Islam reportedly
urged its followers to kill teachers in France as they are enemies of Allah for teaching
secularism. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34866144 http://www.bbc.com/news/
world-europe-35091362
21. Alex Schmid, Terrorism-The Definitional Problem, Journal of International Law,
36,2and3, 2004.
22.William McCants, The ISIS Apocalypse, The History, Strategy and Doomsday Vision of
The Islamic State, Martins Press,USA,2015.
23. Pope Francis on the eve of Paris killings
24. Srikant Smabrani, Endless Jihad, Business Standard, 8 Dec 2015, p9
25. Business Standard, (Bhubaneswar), 8 December 2015, p6
26. Swaminathan S Ankleswar Aiyar, Non -state actors have upstaged the super powers,
Sunday Times of India, (Bhubaneswar) Dec 12, 2015, P12
27. These are psychoanalytical, learning, frustration- aggression, narcissism-aggression,
trait, developmental and motivational/rational choice. See Craig Summers and Eric Markusen
(ed) Collective Violence :Harmful Behaviour in Groups and Governments Ross, Jeffery
Ian, Beyond the Conceptualisation of Terrorism: A Psychological Structural Model of the
Causes of Activity, New York, Rowman and Littlefield,1999.
28. 1.Most often reported traits being fear, hostility, depression, guilt, antiauthoritarianism,
perceived lack of manliness, self-centeredness, extreme extroversion, need for high risks or
stress, and alienation.2. Frustration or narcissistic rage resulting in aggressive behavior. 3.
Associational drives arising from social marginality and isolation. 4. Learning opportunities
to which members of terrorist organizations are exposed, through which orientations and
only or most effective means to achieve political goals. Ibid
29.Walter Reich.,(ed)Origins of Terrorism, Martha Crenshaw., The Logic of Terrorism:
Terrorist Behaviour as a Product of Strategic Choice, Cambridge University
Press,1990.Martha Crenshaw, The Psychology of Terrorism: An Agenda for the 21st Century,
Political Psychology,Vol.21,No.2 June.,2000,pp.405-420
30. Bruce Hoffman, .Inside Terrorism, New York, Columbia University Press, 1998.
31. Jeff Victorof, The Mind of the Terrorist: A review and critique of Psychological
Approaches, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.49, No.1February, 2005, pp3-42
32. Ashton Carter, John Deutch, Philip Zelikow, Catastrophic Terrorism: Tracking the New
Danger, Foreign Affairs, Nov-Dec, 1998, vol.7, No.60
33. Ibid.
34. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/11
35. Pentagon seeks to knit Foreign bases Into ISIS-Foiling Network, http://www.nytimes.com/
2015/12/11
36. Those who do biz with IS to face tougher UN sanctions, The Times of India, (Bhubaneswar)
10 Dec, 2015
37.US presidential candidate has called for monitoring of mosques and even barring Muslims
from entering United States., Fear of terrorism Lifts Donald Trump in New York Times /CBS
Poll, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/11,Voter Insecurities Feed Rise of Right Leaning
Populist Politicians, http://www.nytimes.com,2015/12/11.
38. Ellen Laipson,http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com
39. See Walter Laqueur, Post Modern Terrorism, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 96, vol.75, issue
5, p24.
40. Steve Ressler, Social Network Analysis as an approach to combat terrorism: Past Present
and Future Research, Homeland Security Affairs, vol.II, No.2, July 2006.
41. John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, Networks and Net wars: The Future of Terror, Crime
and Militancy, Washington DC, Rand: 2001
42. Tabish Khair, Double Nature of Orthodox Truths, Economic and Political Weekly,
Vol.LNo.49, December 05, 2015)
29
 Terrorism and International Order
Introduction
In the present day world community, the term
terrorism has drawn the attention of all people across
the globe. It is because of its deep rooted effect on
the social set up. Before we go into the analysis of
the term and its effects, it would be proper to analyse
the term. In fact, it is a disputed term and there is no
agreement amongst the scholars regarding the exact
meaning and a well accepted definition. The difficulty
lies in the fact that it has a wide political connotation.
However, the term Terrorism owes its origin to a
French word terrorisme and originally referred
specifically to state terrorism as practiced by the
French government during the period 1793
1794 Reign of terror. It should be stated that the
French word terrorisme in turn was derived from the
Latin verb terrere which means to
frighten. Although terrorism originally referred to
acts committed by a government, currently it usually
refers to the killing of innocent people for political
purposes in such a way as to create a media spectacle.
However, terrorism is a violent act of terrifying the
common public anytime be it in the day or night.
Terrorists have many objectives such as spreading
threat of violence in the society, fulfilling political
purposes, free the hostages or just to commit brutal
activities for reasons best known to them. It has been
seen that usually, they make the civilians of the country
as their primary target.
In fact, terrorism is an unlawful use of
violence or threat of violence aiming to inculcate fear
among the masses. It is a philosophy of violence which
terrorists use to destabilize the social and economic
set up of a country. In modern times, terrorism is
being used to deliberately create communal tensions,
and disrupt the peaceful atmosphere of a targeted
society or country and destabilize the social set up. It
should be noted that the primary goal of the terrorists
is the fulfillment of their demands by the government
of a specific country. Their main aim also includes
publicity. In order to get publicity, they contact online
30 World Focus February 2016
Prof. Manas Chakrabarty
social media or newspaper, magazine and other
printing media in order to spread their voices to the
general public and also the government. It can be
stated with a fair amount of certainty that terrorism
flies in the face of diplomatic process, purposefully
disrupting peace and safety in order to achieve a goal.
It is the unlawful use of force or violence against
persons or property to intimidate or coerce a
government, the civilian population, or any segment
thereof, in furtherance of political, economic or social
objectives. It targets ethnic or religious groups,
governments, political parties, corporations, and media
enterprises. It should be mentioned in this connection
that terrorism that occurs throughout the world is
known as global terrorism. It is accepted by all
that it is probably the worst type of crime that ever
exists. It not only kills the people but at the same
time, it destroys livelihoods, economies, and civilized
world order that took millennia to form. The results
of terrorism are almost always catastrophic.
Individuals or groups that commit these crimes are
called terrorists. Terrorists exist all over the world.
There are a few that operate alone, but mostly they
are part of one of many global organizations. It is the
usual practice that the terrorists or the terrorist groups
usually maintain a close liaison amongst themselves.
The whole world is of the view that terrorism is a
hazard for mankind. The world is confronted with
many problems but spreading terrorism is a grave
menace to the world and has been most frightening
of all. It is accepted by all that terrorism is the cruelest
crime of all because it kills less criminals and more
innocent citizens.
It should be stated that assassinations,
bombings, hijackings, diplomatic kidnappings-terrorism
is the most publicized form of political violence. The
history of terrorism goes back a very long time, but
the very fact that there is such a history has frequently
been ignored, even suppressed. This may be because
terrorism has not appeared with equal intensity at all
times. When terrorism reappeared in the late
twentieth century after a period of relative calm, there
was the tendency to regard it as a new phenomenon,
without precedent. The psychological study of
terrorism has never been much in fashion. But this
neglect has left a number of crucial questions
unanswered. (Laqueur, 2011). Acts of violence
committed by terrorists have become a staple of news
reports in modern times, from hijackings to bombings,
kidnappings to assassinations. How are we to
understand both the causes and the consequences of
these disturbing events? The key, this volume of original
essays shows, lies in linking terrorism to the different
contextshistorical, political, social, and economic
in which it occurs. (Crenshaw, 1995). It is therefore
of dire necessity that we should try to find answer to
these long standing questions.
Definition
It is really difficult to provide an accepted definition
of terrorism. This idea is reflected in the observation
of Angus Martyn who has pointed out that The
international community has never succeeded in
developing an accepted comprehensive definition of
terrorism. Terrorism expert Walter Laqueur also has
counted over 100 definitions and concludes that the
only general characteristic which is generally agreed
upon is that terrorism involves violence and the threat
of violence. It should be stated that every country
has defined terrorism in its own way as per its own
suitability. It must be said that there is no universally
accepted definition of terrorism. However, the term
Terrorism can be defined as the use of violence
against civilians for political purposes. The major
purpose of the terrorists is to draw attention to a
groups grievances and they use to frighten
governments so that they resort into making
concessions. It is further defined as political violence
in an asymmetrical conflict that is designed to induce
terror and psychic fear through the violent victimization
and destruction of noncombatant targets who may
be put under threat of a violence. This type of
activities mainly serves the purpose of sending a
message from an illicit clandestine organization who
operates from behind the scene. It is seen that the
terrorists usually never comes to the surface. They
carry out their operational activities from behind the
screen. It is an established fact that the purpose of
terrorism is to gain attention of the media and wide
publicity so that it can deeply influence the targeted
Terrorism and International Order
audience(s) in order to reach short- and midterm
political goals. It is therefore clear that it indulges the
use of violence to instill fear, generate publicity, and
mostly its aim revolves round the main objective to
destabilize governments.
However, according to Bruce Hoffman
terrorism is a pejorative term. It is a word with
intrinsically negative connotations that is generally
applied to ones enemies and opponents, or to those
with whom one disagrees and would otherwise prefer
to ignore. However, the U.S. code has presented an
all comprehensive definition of terrorism which may
be stated as under.
The U.S. Code Title 22 Chapter 38, Section
2656f (d) defines terrorism as: Premeditated,
politically motivated violence perpetrated against
noncombatant targets by sub national groups or
clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an
audience.
Basically, terrorism may be classified into:
(a) International Terrorism; and (b) Domestic
Terrorism.
International terrorism means activities with the
following three characteristics:
1. It Involve violent act or acts dangerous to human
life that violate federal or state law;
2. It appears to be intended :
(i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
(ii) to influence the policy of a government by
intimidation or coercion; or,
(iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass
destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and
3. It occurs primarily outside the territorial jurisdiction
of the U.S., or transcends national boundaries in terms
of the means by which they are accomplished, the
persons they appear intended to intimidate or coerce,
or the locale in which their perpetrators operate or
seek asylum.
On the other hand, Domestic Terrorism means
activities with the following three characteristics:
Involve acts dangerous to human life that violate
federal or state law;
(i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
(ii) to influence the policy of a government by
intimidation or coercion; Or,
31
(iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass
destruction, assassination or kidnapping;
The major purpose of terrorism is perhaps the idea
of power. The concept of power is central to
international relations. Yet, disciplinary discussions
tend to privilege only one, albeit important, form: an
actor controlling another to do what that other would
not otherwise do. By showing conceptual favoritism,
the discipline not only overlooks the different forms
of power in international politics, but also fails to
develop sophisticated understandings of how global
outcomes are produced and how actors are
differentially enabled and constrained to determine
their fates. We argue that scholars of international
relations should employ multiple conceptions of power
and develop a conceptual framework that encourages
rigorous attention to power in its different forms.
Causes of Terrorism
Like the definitional aspect, the causes of terrorism
have been under much debate. A question is frequently
asked as to what are the causes of terrorism.
Normally, it can be said that the following are the
major causes that lead to terrorism.
Social and Political Injustice
Usually, the people or the general mass choose
terrorism when they are trying to fight what they
perceive to be a social or political or historical wrong.
At a point of time when the people finds that their
basic rights are being denied, they resort to an act of
terrorism.
As a result of the belief that an act of violence
or its threat will be effective to gain the desired goal
and it would usher in change in the social structure,
the people resort to the acts of terrorism. Again, there
is a belief that violent means justify the ends. It may
be stated further that the terrorists resort to terrorism
mainly because of the fact they do not have any
choice. Further, in some cases, people who choose
terrorist tactics are also persuaded that violence, or
the threat of violence, is effective to gain the desired
goal.
Ethno- Nationalism
Ethno nationalism is another important cause of
terrorism. The desire of a population to break away
from a government or ruling power and create a state
32 World Focus February 2016
of their own can cause the formation of terrorist
groups. In the 20th century this was seen often times
with regions or states attempting to gain independence
from their colonial era masters. Ethno-nationalism will
continue to be a significant source of terrorism. So
far as the records of history are concerned, the people
have often resorted to this type of terrorism in order
to get a justice to their ethnicity status.
Religion
Religion is regarded as one of the most potent cause
of terrorism. It may be said that most commonly held
the belief today that terrorism is caused by religion.
Although it is not the main cause for terrorism but it
can be said that religion definitely does play a
significant role in driving some forms of it. As
Hoffman points out in Inside Terrorism, religion in
conjunction with political/ethno-nationalist drivers has
long been a factor of terrorism. In fact, religion plays
a very potent and important role for fomenting
terrorism. In todays world, religion as a part of
terrorism has been mainly attributed to Islamic
fundamentalism. It should be stated that as a driver
of terrorism, the true danger that religious doctrine
poses is its encouragement of attacks that are more
violent in nature than other types of terrorism. By
being promised rewards in the afterlife, terrorists are
more likely to carry out suicide bombings and other
such all in tactics. In such cases religion truly plays
the role as an opium and the people are directed to
act as an agent of terrorist activities.
Socio-Economic Status
Terrorists may also be driven by a sense of relative
deprivation and lack of upward mobility within society.
Globalization and the modern media have given the
have nots an acute awareness of their situation
compared to the haves. As Omer Taspinar states
in Fighting Radicalism, Not Terrorism,
Globalization creates an acute awareness about
opportunities available elsewhere. This leads to
frustration, victimization, and humiliation among
growing cohorts of urbanized, undereducated, and
unemployed Muslim youth who are able to make
comparisons across countries. Seeing the economic
differences between themselves and the Western
world can infuriate some in underdeveloped countries,
increasing tension and hostilities. This allows terrorist
organizations to gain attention and entry to societies
that have felt wronged by these perceived social
injustices.
Unfortunately, the only real way to mitigate
this is through economic development of the
community, country, and region, but that takes time.
For the foreseeable future there will always be those
that are disgruntled by the comparison of living
standards of the wealthy section around the world
versus their own, opening the doors to frustration and
anger. Thus, this driver is remarkably hard to combat
as globalization allows for more mechanisms of
comparison between varying global socio-economic
levels.
Terrorism and World Politics
Terrorism is one of the gravest problems that the world
society faces today. It is an issue of global concern.
The presence of terrorism can be felt throughout the
length and breadth of the world. Without any doubt,
it is a much debated issue in all the countries of the
world, both developing and the developed. The 21st
century has witnessed unforeseen events which have
altered the course of history forever. The world has
received the blessings of technological advancements
but at the same time the biggest challenge is
undoubtedly the emergence of terrorism and it has
become one of the biggest global threats. Terrorism
has been insidiously affecting lives of people all over
the world and has resulted in spoiling the world peace
at an alarming rate. It is affecting all countries of the
world whether it is a super power like the United
States of America or a less developed country like
India or any other country where terrorism continues
to spread its roots but yet no concrete solution to
this problem could be developed or achieved. It has
not only debilitated national security but has also led
countries into a situation of anarchy with far reaching
consequences.
There is no doubt that terrorism is a global
threat and even though countries have come to
recognize it, they have to work harder in order to
ensure world peace which is very difficult to achieve.
It has been suggested by many leading international
scholars that in order to achieve world peace, all the
countries of the world must come forward together
in order to counter the growing menace, i.e. terrorism
and take concrete steps to stop the violence, fear,
Terrorism and International Order
panic and blood shed and loss of human resources. It
should be remembered that it is definitely a mammoth
task and certainly not an easy one and all the nations
would have to collaborate and reach consensus on
how to achieve their goal for a terror-free globe. All
of us should take it for granted that it is sine qua non
that restoration of world peace is the only lasting
solution to many of the problems which hampers all
the nations across the globe.
Further, all of us should be concerned because
terrorism is a growing problem in this unstable world.
The present day world has become deeply connected
with terrorism. It has become a part and parcel of
the modern society because of social and economic
factors. It is well understood that global problems
affect the modern world. The modern world is
experiencing rapid changes which have made all the
countries more interdependent than ever before and
the whole world has been converted into a global
village. With growing development of the society, the
world grows smaller, and any event in any one area
leaves behind a greater impact on other parts of the
world. Thus, terrorism makes world politics more
complicated. It allows non-state actors to affect the
world, leaving states unsure as to how to respond to
attacks and get free out of the clutch.
Conclusion
There is no denying the fact that terrorism is a major
problem at the moment which has engulfed the whole
world. Its effects penetrate deep and exert tremendous
influence and it can deteriorate a countrys economy
to a very significant extent. The economy of a country
is the backbone of any society. Terrorism badly
affects the economic structure of a society and hence
it is absolutely necessary to face and block it with
utmost sincerity. So far as human history is concerned,
terrorism has put it in a topsy turvy position many a
times and it is high time that we should be very much
concerned about it. As it stands today, terrorism has
become a big national and international problem
throughout the length and breadth of the world and
we are confronted with several key problems. They
are: First, what constitutes terrorism? What is new
about the new terrorism? Why is the Muslim world
the most potent breeding ground of this new terrorism?
To what extent is religion itself a factor? Is there a
clash of civilizations between the Muslim world and
33
the largely Christian or post-Christian West? Is
America at fault? Israel? Did European nations turn
a blind eye to terrorists and their sympathizers in their
midst? To what extent are poverty and oppression
the causes of terrorism? What is the likelihood that
terrorists will obtain weapons of mass destruction-
chemical, biological, or nuclear? Why was the United
States unprepared for 9/11? Why the intelligence
failure? Are Islamic terrorists the only terrorists we
need to fear? What about other terrorists from the
right of the left, eco terrorists or anti-globalization
terrorists? And finally, what is the best defense against
terrorism? ( Laqueur, 2003). We can see examples
of this today. The best example is Al-Qaeda. Its 9/
11 attacks damaged the United States without giving
the US a clear enemy to attack. When Japan attacked
Pearl Harbor in 1941, it was clear that the US was
now at war with Japan. After 9/11 it was much less
clear. The US ended up at war with Afghanistan
and later with Iraq, but not with Saudi Arabia, the
home country of the majority of the 9/11 attackers.
The governments of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Saudi
Arabia did not directly participate in the attacks,
making it somewhat complicated and difficult to know
how to respond to the attacks. In fact, the destruction
of the World Trade Towers demonstrates the
horrifying consequences of a terrorist strike. (Walter
Laqueur, 1999).
References
Crenshaw Martha (Ed) - Terrorism in Context THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
PRESS1995
Laqueur, Walter -A History of Terrorism- Transaction
Publishers, 2011
Laqueur, Walter - The New Terrorism: Fanaticism
and the Arms of Mass Destruction- Oxford University
Press, 1999
Laqueur, Walter - No End to War: Terrorism in the
Twenty-First Century
Bloomsbury Academic, 01-May-2003

Forthcoming issues of World Focus: 2016 with

Deadlines for Submission of Articles (Words: 5,000)

March India and East Asia (10th February)

April Indias Economic Diplomacy: Leapfrogging Foreign Trade
(10th March)
May Disaster Management and Mitigation (10th April)
June Global Turmoils: Peace and Conflict Management (10th May)
July Ethics in the Contemporary World (10th June)
August India and Neighbours (10th July)
September Maritime Diplomacy and Chinas Silk Road (10th August)
October Climate Change: Sustainable Development and Energy Security
(10th September)
November Annual Issue: Indias Foreign Policy-1 (10th October)
December Annual Issue: Indias Foreign Policy-2 (10th November)

34 World Focus February 2016

 ISIS: The Geopolitics of Terrorism
Introduction
The Present Articles focuses on Geostrategic and
Geo-political Importance of terrorism in Persian Gulf,
this region being the centre of conflicts in the Middle
East. Iraq and Syria are the two dominant countries
of this region. The United States is an important extra-
regional power that has considerable influence in this
region. The article further argues that peace in the
Persian Gulf is a critical necessity for stability in the
Middle East. Such an order would be a product of
the policies of two important players; Iraq and United
States, besides the other states of the Persian Gulf.
Peace in the Persian Gulf would ensure stability for
the region of the Middle East and also in the long run,
provide for containing the so-called Civilization Clash,
which is emerging in the World today.
The Middle East and its sub-region, Persian
Gulf region, have long been amongst the most volatile
regions of the world and major centres of world
affairs; strategically, economically, politically,
culturally, and religiously sensitive areas. The location
of the Persian Gulf has given the region a significant
economic and strategic position. Both the Middle East
and Persian Gulf region remain areas of unresolved
and dangerous conflict involving the external powers,
arms proliferation and ethnic and religious hatreds
that go back centuries.
The Origin of ISIS
When in the afternoon of 4 July 2014, ISIS leader
Abou Omar al Baghdadi climbed the stairs of the
Imams minbar pacing himself one step at a time to
deliver the sermon of the Friday prayers at the Great
Mosque in Mosul, Iraq, an important moment in the
saga of Al Qaeda played out. A few days earlier, on
29 June 2014, ISIS spokesman, Abou Mohammad
al Adnani, had announced (in a statement released
in Arabic, English, French, German and Russian) the
ISIS: The Geopolitics of Terrorism
Prof. Rajesh Dogra
birth of an Islamic State with al Baghdadi as leader
Caliph Ibrahim.
On 1 July 2014, al Baghdadi himself had
issued a Message to the Islamic Umma calling on
Muslims from around the world to immigrate to the
new Emirate. The coincidence of al Baghdadis
sermon with the first Friday in Ramadan and with
the United States Independence Day was hardly
fortuitous, and such timing added indeed to the
climactic theatricality staged by a group bringing its
own market.
The ISIS story thus indicates that for all the
decentralisation, there remains among Jihadis a
yearning for a global leadership, as it once existed
under the heyday of Bin Ladens Al Qaeda al Oum
(1995-2005). ISIS is certainly filling a vacuum and
regenerating a brand that was successful among those
militants. Yet, without establishing a modicum of
political legitimacy, ISIS will not be able to build an
enduring movement.
The franchising was accepted because it was
decreed by Bin Laden and it made sense tactically
as Al Qaeda also avoided structural collapse by
welcoming generational shift. Al Qaeda who tellingly
refers to itself officially as Qaedat al Jihad (the basis
of the Jihad) saw itself as an enabler, whereas ISIS
centrifugal dynamics indicate otherwise revealing the
limits of the franchise model.
The Islamic State Goals
On Sunday June 29th, 2014, the first day of the holy
month of Ramadan, the extremist group ISIS
announced the restoration of the Caliphate and the
renaming of its group to the Islamic State (IS). This
declaration was made by official ISIS spokesman Abu
Muhammad al Adnani via a publicly released audio
message. The newly established Islamic State has
35
made major appropriations in Iraq, including the
capture of major cities, oil refineries, weapons and
military armaments. Jabhat al-Nusra, or the al-Nusra
Front, is an organically grown extremist organization
within Syria that derived from old cadres of AQI, but
has since remerged in Syrias 2011 uprisings to
become al-Qaedas preferred affiliate within the
region.
The leader of al-Nusra responded to
Baghdadis announcement by denying any notions of
a merger and reiterating its allegiance to al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. Furthermore Zawahiri,
who had become the leader of AQC following the
death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011, openly rebutted
the merger of al-Nusra and ISI. In a June 2013 letter
to Baghdadi, Zawahiri noted that he was neither
consulted, nor informed of such a merger and
requested the dissolution of ISIS immediately.
Eventually Baghdadi expressed his differences with
Zawahiri, explicitly revealing the rift that had evolved
between ISIS and AQC.
There was a clear divide between Zawahiri
and Baghdadi. Furthermore, Baghdadi was becoming
more independent and no longer required the perks
of being under the al-Qaeda brand. On June 29th, a
few months following ISIS and al-Qaedas split, ISIS
announced the establishment of the long-desired
Caliphate and rebranded their group at the Islamic
State (IS). Accordingly to religious interpretation, it
was also requested that Muslims everywhere give
bayah (allegiance) to the Caliphate and its leader,
Baghdadi. In other words: you aligned with al-Qaeda
or the newly established Islamic State. The
implications of this announcement will be discussed
in detail at the conclusion of this brief.)
The Historical background of ISIS
In 2013 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi decided to merge his
forces in Iraq and Syria and to create ISIS to spread
his zeal for violent actions in order to apply Salafi-
jihadi ideology and to create a caliphate. This move
was negatively criticized and was seen as an
unrealistic way to promote the goal of an Islamic State
in Syria by the leadership of Jabhat al-Nusra (Victory
36 World Focus February 2016
Front) and by the Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri
who dictated that ISIS should be operating only in
Iraq.
On June 14, 2013 al-Baghdadi rejected al-
Zawahiris statement and decided to expand the
operations in Syria, ignoring demands for mediation.
The leader of al-Nusra, proceeded with the disbanding
of ISIS but after a few months he decided to halt the
attacks on ISIS without reaching any reconciliation
point and with severe losses of fighters who were
loyal to al-Baghdadi and committed to help ISIS
remain in Syria. The same year, in February 2014,
Al-Qaeda decided to disavow relations with ISIS.
Factual background
The split of ISIS from Al-Qaeda didnt weaken the
group as it became larger and more powerful through
operations in Syria and Iraq, fighting against the
governments of Iraq and Syria, rebel groups in Syria
and tribal groups and militias in Iraq. In January 2014,
it defeated for the first time the Iraqi forces, exploiting
the political instability created by the Shia-led
government and the minority Sunni Arab community,
and it took over Fallujah30 and in June 2014 it seized
control of Mosul, Tikrit and Al-Qaim (Iraq-Syria
border town) and then advanced to the South towards
Baghdad.
On June 2934, ISIS announced the foundation
of a Caliphate that erases all state borders with Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi as Caliph, the worlds ultimate
authority on the estimated 1.5 billion Muslims, and
decided to change its name from ISIS to Islamic State
(IS) and called for all Muslims to join the new
Caliphate. The belief of its members is that the whole
world consists of non-believers who want to eradicate
Islam, something that justifies the attacks against
people who are or are not Muslims. They believe
that they are the only true believers and that all their
violent actions are cited in the Koran and Hadith.
That is why this is considered one of the most extreme
interpretations of Sunni Islam.
Recruitment of ISIS
Holding lands in Syria and Iraq renders necessary
for the Islamic State the creation of a governing body
which will stand as a supportive pillar towards its
endurance and survival. Under this scope, ISIS has
attracted more than 20,000 foreign fighters who, in
many cases, have been victims of the organizations
propaganda and recruitment strategies. More
specifically, targets of ISIS recruitments are usually
foreigners deprived of voting rights, educated youth,
as well as victims of religious, political and economic
inequalities and from lower classes.
Funding of ISIS
It is a fact that ISIS represents the well-funded
terrorist organization in the world. Having a constant
flow of resources and being able to raise millions of
dollars from a variety of activities in daily basis, the
estimated worth of the wealthiest terrorist organization
comes up to $2 billion. To an extent, the Islamic State
is considered self-financed. Controlling territories of
strategic importance in Iraq and Syria provides them
the opportunity to capture and take advantage of
important resources, such as dams and oil
infrastructures.
According to a report by the U.S Treasury
Department in 2014, the estimated revenue of oil
smuggling reached almost $2 million a day.
Simultaneously, the imposition of strict taxes on its
citizens, charges on basic services (for example
electricity and access to means of communication),
duties on imports, kidnappings and hostage taking, as
well as ransacking banks, looting museums, money
laundering and human, firearms and drugs trafficking,
consist a combination that provides ISIS a vital source
of income. But sustaining and controlling such a vast
area, cannot be achieved only by the aforementioned
funding sources. Thus, it is undeniable that external
funding plays a significant role towards the efficient
functioning of that entity.
Why Are They Successful?
It was reported that 30,000 Iraqi soldiers retreated
against an opposition of only 800 Islamic State fighters
in the attack on Mosul Iraqs second largest city. Two
important geopolitical factors attribute to ISs success.
ISIS: The Geopolitics of Terrorism
Iraqs military has continuously struggled in combat
readiness and effective leadership since Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki came to power. Corruption
is widespread and a lack of morale plagues the ranks
of the Iraqi Security Force. There have been many
recent cases of senior military officers abandoning
their outposts unannounced and ordering their troops
to follow suit after facing threats of an IS attack.
Many of Malikis former generals and commanders
were replaced with loyalists to his regime those who
werent as experienced and trusted by their soldiers.
Reasons for the rise of ISIS
The identification of the actions that led to the rapid
rise of ISIS creates a problematic that cannot be
easily answered. A variety of historical facts combined
with a succinct approach of countries policies could
provide an enlightenment of the current crisis in the
Middle East. Thus, trying to detect the reasons of the
rise of ISIS, we are going to present the basic factors
from the root, rather than focus at the tip of the
iceberg.
Islamic State: The Changing Face of Modern
Jihadism
Since Islamic State (IS) swept into the global media
spotlight in June 2014, the international community
has watched in shock as the group has terrorised en
masse those that do not comply with its violent and
extremist worldview. Journalists, humanitarian aid
workers and human rights activists have been brutally
murdered events that have been documented by the
group and boasted about as part of its propaganda
machine. At present, it is estimated that over 2,500
Western Europeans alone have journeyed to join in
the crisis in Iraq and Syria, most joining IS.
International governments have been
galvanised into action against IS and its self-
proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The group
presents challenges that the international community
has not before been faced with. It controls a huge
amount of territory, administers the civil lives of some
eight million people and rejects all norms of
international law. However, in spite of its prominence,
37
IS strategy, motivations and structure are often
misdiagnosed by onlookers.
Just like Islamism, jihadism is a category of
action. Al-Qaeda and IS are both part of a form of
Salafi jihadism, loosely based upon three concepts:
hakmiyyah, jahiliyyah and global jihad. Broadly,
hakmiyyah refers to a theological understanding of
Allahs ultimate sovereignty over political, social and
economic affairs as first defined by the South Asian
ideologue and founder of Jamaat-e-Islami Abul Ala
Mawdudi. The term jahiliyyah, in this context, refers
to the worldview of Egyptian Islamist Sayyid Qutb,
one that deems the Muslim community to have been
extinct for a number of centuries, and have reverted
to a pre-Islam state of affairs in the absence of a
global leadership. Because of this, radical and violent
change to the existing order is urgently justified.
Lastly, global jihad refers to an understanding
of jihad developed by Abdullah Azzam. In a fatwa
issued in 1979, he ruled that all Muslims, regardless
of their nationality, are obligated to fight defensive
jihad against any enemy invading a Muslim land that
cannot defend itself. The above concepts were
combined to form an ideology that could be used to
justify violence against apostate regimes, and all those
supporting them.
Grass Root of terrorism
While its ideological roots go back much further than
the 1980s, al-Qaeda, the group that was destined to
become the standard-bearer of global jihadism,
emerged as a largely abstract entity over the course
of the Afghan War in the 1980s, during which Islamists
from across the world travelled to fight defensive
jihad against the Soviets.
These foreign fighters were predominantly,
but not exclusively, composed of Arabs and shared a
common ideology, even though they were not one
homogenous group. Most of them had been
galvanised into the jihadist cause by events of the
previous two years, a time of great upheaval and
empowerment in the Middle East, not unlike the years
that followed the toppling of the Tunisian state in 2011.
38 World Focus February 2016
Just like IS, al-Qaedas emergence relied on a unique
convergence of extrinsic factors: over the course of
the 1980s, various state and non-state actors worked
together with the Afghan mujahidin to aid them in the
fight against Communism through recruitment, funding
and training. One of the most prominent of these was
an organisation formed in 1984 by Abdullah Azzam,
a Palestinian member of the Muslim Brotherhood,
and Osama bin Laden, a prominent Saudi businessman
with pre-established wealth and good connections.
Named Maktab al-Khadamat (MAK), the
organisation successfully channelled funds to the
mujahidin from donors across the world. It was from
the financial and political infrastructure of MAK and
the ideological melting pot of the war that the ideology
and praxis of al Qaeda was refined.
Socio-economic foundations of Terrorism
Some indicators of socioeconomic conditions possibly
conducive to creating terrorists are Poverty, especially
because of its severely unequal distribution among
nations, is obviously one of the most important. It has
been claimed that Islamic rage against the United
States is caused in part by the relative failure of
Islamic nations to achieve economic success. In
addition to the level and distribution of income, we
include gender equity, public health, education,
communication capabilities, and exposure to violence.
The Radical Terror
The 9/11 attack awakened the United States to the
danger of violent Muslim radicalism on its own soil.
In the years that followed, traditional approaches to
preventing repeat attacks have focused on preventing
future strikes. Such approaches are inadequate,
however, because they prevent the immediate danger
but do not address the problems long-term causes.
Redefining Jihad
The concept of jihad is not simply the right of a
state or nation to self defence in the face of aggression,
but rather an offensive type of military Confrontation
which can and was undertaken by Muslims in the
past in order to expand Muslim lands.
Suicide terrorism
Suicide terrorism is based on a broad conception of
violence, including epistemic violence, reminds us of
the complexity of societal relations of power before,
during and after violence occurs. It therefore does
not agree with the narrow definitions of violence that
mainstream voices consider crucial for studying
terrorism.
Post-9/11 Jihadism
The geographical range of al-Qaeda operations
towards the end of the 1990s confirms its transnational
strategy. No matter where the attack was, the overall
motivation remained the same: to destabilise
international security and destabilise Western global
economies. Despite certain al-Qaeda affiliates
deviation from it, bin Laden pursued this strategy, until
his death in 2011. His successor, Ayman alZawahiri,
has implemented it too, though with less success, in
light of operational difficulties.
It was the sole objective of bin Laden to
effectively achieve the global terror on 11 September
2001 (9/11), when three planes, hijacked by members
of al-Qaeda, crashed into the World Trade Centres
Twin Towers and the Pentagon. A fourth was
destroyed before it reached its intended target. The
alleged motives for 9/11, outlined in bin Ladens 2002
Letter to America, were the US military presence in
Saudi Arabia, sanctions against Iraq and the US
unconditional support of Israels occupation of the
Palestinian territories.
IS and the Syrian War
In 2011, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the current leader of
IS, sent a contingent of what were then ISIS militants,
and led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, across the
Iraq-Syria border to fight the Assad regime under
the banner of Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). Al-Jawlani, an
effective military commander, rapidly led his faction
to become the most effective rebel fighting force in
Syria, something which brought it to the forefront of
the war. Seeking to reap the ideological and practical
benefits of JNs successes, al-Baghdadi made an
announcement in April 2013 that ISI would be no
more; rather, its activities were extending into Syria
ISIS: The Geopolitics of Terrorism
and hence its name would be changed to Islamic State
in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).
In doing so, JN would be absorbed back into
its parent organisation; something that al-Jawlani
rejected soon after, affirming his allegiance to al-
Zawahiri, not al-Baghdadi, and thereby effectively
rejecting the latters legitimacy. His repudiation of
the merger was backed by the al-Qaeda leader, who
attempted to mediate this rapidly deteriorating tussle
by nullifying al-Baghdadis claims and dispatching a
top al-Qaeda figure to Syria to mediate between the
two groups.
In the months that followed al-Zawahiris
statement, the infighting between IS and JN continued
to escalate, with thousands of jihadists dying as a
result. Due to its vehement rejection of all those who
were not outspoken allies, IS soon became regarded
as the more extreme of the two groups, something
made evident by its execution of other jihadists notably
its beheading of a leading figure of Ahrar alSham in
November 2013 and the killing of Abu Khalid al-Suri,
the al-Qaeda ideologue sent to mediate the IS-JN
dispute, in January 2014. The latters death was the
straw that broke the camels back al-Zawahiris
official excommunication of al-Baghdadi from al-
Qaeda came shortly after, in February 2014.
If nothing else, what the above events
demonstrate is that understanding the respective
histories of al Qaeda and IS is imperative if one is to
grasp the particulars of the current rift between al-
Zawahiri and al-Baghdadi. The cleavage between
the two groups, something that has only been solidified
since the beginning of this year, owes itself not just to
act on-the-ground developments in Syria and Iraq, as
is commonly misconceived. Rather, the split has much
deeper roots that can be found in the ideological
differences of bin Laden and al-Zarqawi, and thus
go back as far as the 1990s.
In many ways IS does not represent a new
form of terrorism. The brutal violence exhibited by it
beheadings, crucifixions, torture are, unfortunately,
not new. However, there are some aspects to IS that
39
do make it distinct from other groups, a result of
evolution rather than a clear break from past jihadist
strategy. They have led some to claim it has driven
AQ into obscurity, redefined Islamist-inspired
terrorism and irreparably changed the game for
counter-terrorism and counter-extremism
practitioners.
The IS Caliphate
One of the most striking features of IS, something
which renders it distinct from other jihadist
Organisations are that, not only does it lay claim to a
contiguous territory that stretches over a thousand
miles across Syria and Iraq, but it has established
within this terrain a caliphate, the first real jihadist
state. In stark contrast to other jihadist groups that
have, in the past, taken over swathes of land but then
continued to operate more or less covertly, like AQIM
in the Sahel and AQAP in Yemen for example, IS
has operated openly.
Hence, while the sheer amount of land that
IS controls are significant, it is not the most important
thing to take into account. Rather, what is more striking
it the fact that it is a de facto state? Its actions are
not underground; it seeks and, to an extent, has popular
legitimacy. Of course, this is possible only because
of the unprecedented level of regional destabilization
brought on by the Syrian civil war and Iraqs
cripplingly sectarian politics.
In this climate of instability, IS was able to
quietly enlarge its sphere of influence, collect funds,
train its fighters and consolidate its popularity like no
other group before it. That the IS state has
purported, since 29 June 2014, to be a caliphate is
of profound importance. In doing so, it is asserting
itself as the vanguard of Islam, the only legitimate
jihadist movement, and one that all other emirates,
groups, states and organizations are subordinate to.
This comes as a direct challenge to the legitimacy of
al-Qaeda, which, because it shares IS salafi-jihadist
ideology, also has the establishment of a caliphate
as its ultimate goal. In effect, al-Baghdadi has seized
the initiative and made an enormous affront to al-
40 World Focus February 2016
Zawahiri, something from which he will take time to
recover from.
In August 2014, it looked like IS advances
across Syria and Iraq had been obstructed, and this
was primarily because of international intervention
by arming its opposition and carrying out air strikes
against it. However, the group has adapted
accordingly. At the time of writing, air strikes from
both local and international forces have not stopped
IS from spreading; only slowed it at times. Luay Jawad
al-Khateeb states, in order to be successful when
implementing a strategy like this, you would need to
have people on the ground to give information.85
That the international community does not have
adequate human intel has become eminently clear of
late, with air strikes spectacularly failing to blunt IS
offenses in Iraqs Anbar province, in particular.
Use of Online Tools
Just like al-Qaeda, IS has a number of official outlets
that produce propaganda videos and publications.
However, it has raised the bar when it comes to their
circulation and production value indeed, IS
centralised network of propaganda disseminators has
flourished through online platforms and, accordingly,
can make a seriously big noise. Using social media
platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, Kik, Ask.fm,
VK and Facebook, the network delivers a high
definition IS view of events in Syria and Iraq to an
audience of millions.
Redefining Global Jihad
Both al-Qaeda and IS have channelled the concept
of global jihad to facilitate the realisation of their
respective goals and broaden international support
for their ideologies. However, the two groups have
taken different strategies in achieving their goals. Al-
Qaedas reading of global jihad now revolves around
the proliferation of affiliate groups across the world
while at the same time promoting decentralized, so-
called lone wolf attacks to destabilize target states
and enemy infrastructure as fard ayn (individual
Islamic obligations).
 IS, on the other hand, has devoted most of
its efforts to state building, calling on Muslims across
the world to come to it, rather than set up shop in
their home countries. In a sense, this marks a re-
imagination of global jihad, one which sees the
migration of Muslims to the caliphate, from whence
they can help expand its borders, as more important
than carrying out terrorist operations. IS declaration
of the reestablishment of the caliphate, discussed
above, is unprecedented. Some have suggested that
its state-building efforts in particular its attempts at
governance, social service provision, media and
outreach are likely to become a new model for current
and future jihadist movements, because they have
clearly worked as a means of consolidating control in
unstable political environments.
The Present Scenario
The use of soft-power, as is precisely what were
doing now, Deploying Special Forces military advisors,
launching unmanned aircraft surveillance missions in
IS territory, and developing intelligence capabilities
with the Iraqi government. The escalation of this
current strategy to military intervention is uncertain,
although President Obama is prepared to launch
military strikes if intelligence suggested such a course
of action.
It is almost unanimous among senior defence
officials and scholars that our intelligence capabilities
within the region must be rebuilt. Following the
withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, our intelligence
capabilities went with it. The U.S. currently relies on
satellite imagery and signals intelligence and lacks
human assets on the ground. With the recent Scenario,
intelligence collection in these environments has only
become more challenging.
President Barack Obama outlined the U.S.
strategy
On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama
outlined the inchoate U.S. strategy to degrade and
ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL
[the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, also known
as ISIS or the Islamic State]. At the core of that
strategy, in both Iraq and Syria, is a systematic
ISIS: The Geopolitics of Terrorism
campaign of air strikes against ISIS, coupled with
support for local partner forces fighting ISIS on
the ground. Subsequent analysis and policy attention
have focused largely on the campaign in Syria.
This is partly due to the challenge of
identifying effective local partner forces in the midst
of the complex Syrian civil war. But it is also because
U.S. policy makers tend to believe that they
understand Iraq, after having occupied the country
for more than eight years. The assumptions guiding
U.S. policy toward ISIS imply that the Islamic State
is inherently a self-limiting organization. Ideological
fissures, it is thought, will shatter the alliance of
convenience between ISIS and secular nationalist
insurgents. Sunni Arab tribes will tire of ISISs
brutality and its strict interpretation of Islamic law
and will rise up against it. Iraqs new government
will successfully reach out to long-disenchanted Sunni
Arabs, and the new Iraqi National Guard will smooth
the integration of nationalist insurgents and tribesmen,
who will flip and join the fight against ISIS.
The Nightmare Years to Come
The Greater Middle East has experienced numerous
political, ethnic, social, and religious convulsions. While
several regional states, such as Egypt, Syria, Yemen,
Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, along
with ISIS and Syria and its affiliates continue to
capture international headlines, the Greater Middle
East continues its drift toward violent, hardliner
sectarianism fuelled by immense frustration and
growing intolerance.
This deadly drift, an enveloping malignance,
is rooted in decades-long failed authoritarian
leadership, hardened feelings of sustained injustice,
minimal essential services, ecological endangerment
and diminished natural resources (especially water),
poor and undeveloped economies, crumbling
infrastructures, systemic corruption, and youth bulge
unemployment among other shortcomings and
challenges. With God on their side, jihadist combatants
have minimal room for compromise, short of tactical
accommodation.
41
 The fear of Islamist extremists is so great
that the Syrian moderate, secular opposition and the
Damascus government ultimately may find common
cause for a negotiated settlement that then would
unite them in a fight against radical jihadists, such as
Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS). Additionally, Syrias strife has morphed
from a sectarian-driven civil war to a regional Sunni-
Shia proxy war led by Saudi Arabia and Iran
respectively, and renewed U.S.-Russia competition
throughout the region. The Crimean crisis could
diminish prospects for U.S.-Russia cooperation
concerning Syria, and key players throughout the
region, particularly Syria President Bashar al-Asads
regime, hardliners in Iran, Saudi Arabias leadership,
and Israeli decision makers will be watching its
outcome closely.
Dislodging ISIS Will Be a Difficult Task
The ISIS advance toward Baghdad may be
temporarily held off as the government rallies its
remaining security forces and Shia militias organize
for the upcoming Battle for Baghdad. There is a
rather clear reason why the ISIS leader has renamed
him Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, meaning the Caliph of
Baghdad. ISIS will at a minimum be able to take
control of some Sunni neighbourhoods in Baghdad
shortly and wreak havoc on the city with IEDs,
ambushes, single suicide attacks, and suicide assaults
that target civilians, the government, and security
forces, senior members of government, and foreign
installations and embassies. Today, the Iraqis have
no US forces on the ground to support them, US air
power is absent, the Awakening is scattered and
disjointed, and the Iraqi military has been humiliated
badly while surrendering or retreating in disarray
during the lightning fast jihadists campaign from
Mosul to the outskirts of Baghdad.
Conclusion
The actions of ISIS in the past few years have left
the whole international community to stare feared
with awe. The pace with which ISIS is expanding
and the number of victims that leaves behind, has
caused severe alert to all international organizations
and States. The problems of the funding of ISIS, the
42 World Focus February 2016
support from other terrorist groups, the internet
propaganda and the foreign terrorist fighters are
phenomena that are still hard to be 100% traced and
solved. The brutal tactics that ISIS use and the
messages it is trying to spread prove to us that they
are a ruthless jihadist group, with geopolitical expansion
politics, wishing to apply them not only to the Middle
East but also in many other regions of the world.
Therefore it is a highly demanding time for a
structured and not divided response to tackle the threat
of ISIS and subsequently of religious extremism,
through the coordinated cooperation among States
and organizations of all natures.
References
Alexander, Yonah. International Terrorism: National,
Regional and Global Perspectives, Praeger Publishers, New
York, 1976.
Anzorin, Steven, (ed.), Terrorism, The H.W. Wilson
Company, New York, 1986.
Carlton, David and Carlo Schaerf. International Terrorism
and World security, Croom Helm, London, 1975.
Charters, David. A, The Deadly sin of Terrorism: Its Effect
on Democracy and Civil Liberty in Six Countries, Centre
for Conflict Studies, University of New Brunshick,
Greenwood Press., Conn./London, 1994
Evron, Yair (ed.), International Violence: Terrorism, Surprise
and Control, Leonard Davis Institute, Jerusalem, 1979.
Freedman, L.Z. andY. Alexander, (eds.), Perspectives on
Terrorism, Scholarly Resources Inc., Wilmington, Delaware,
1983.
Hanle, Donald. J., Terrorism: The Newest Fact ofWarfare,
New York, 1989.
Jenkins, Brian M. (ed), Terrorism and Personal Protection,
Butterworth, Massachusetts, 1985.
Lebow, Richard N. (ed) Between Peace and War: The
Nature oflntemational Crisis. the Johns Hopkins University
Press, Baltimore and London, 1981.
OSullivan, Noel (ed), Terrorism. Ideology and Revolution,
WheatsheafBooks, London, 1986.
Rwayha, Dr. Walid Amin, Terrorism and Hostage-taking in
the Middle East, F ranee, 1990.
Schlagheck, Donna M., International Terorism: An
Introduction to the Concepts and Actors, Lexington Books,
Boston, 1992.
Sterling, Claire, The Terror Network, Berkeley Books, New
York, 1984.
Stohl, Michael, ( ed), The Politics of Terrorism, Marcel
Daker, INC, New York,1983.
Westerlund, David ( ed), Questioning the Secular State :
Worldwide Resurgence ofReligion in Politics, Hurst and
Company, London, 1996.
Wilkinson, Paul ( ed), Political Terrorism, John Wiley-New
York, 1991.
 Recent Indo-Pak Engagement on Terror and the Pathankot Attack:
The issue of terrorism has been on the arena
of international security with serious implications for
India. In the last fifteen years, several major cities
like New Work (2001), London (2005), Mumbai(2008),
Boston(2013), Peshawar(2014), Paris(2015) and
Jakarta (2016) have fallen prey to terrorist attack. In
the first week of 2016 alone, terrorists have struck
Kabul, Pathankot, Tel Aviv, and various locations of
Iraq. Cross-border terrorism originating from across
the border emerged as a serious threat to the society
of India. This cross-border terrorism has emerged
as a sort of surrogate unconventional warfare, a low-
intensity conflict, a low-cost-high result option and a
viable instrument for coercive bargaining. Brian
Jenkins, a scholar on the issue of terrorism even
subscribes to the view that many governments are
using terrorist groups as an arm of foreign policy.
Many countries including India have been confronting
enormous challenges from state-sponsored cross-
border terrorism driven by religious extremism. India
has had protracted experiences since mid-eighties in
Punjab and later in J&K due to its sharing of border
with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Cross-border
terrorism combined with transnational crimes poses
a grave threat. Pathankot incident is a rude wake up
call for India. India has to demonstrate that it is more
than a functional anarchy.
Can talks and terror go together?
PM Modis impromptu visit to Lahore on 25
December 2015 was hailed as a bold and laudable
initiative. Modis endeavour to ensure peaceful co-
existence between India and Pakistan also drew flak
from hardliners. But New Delhis bold outreach to
Islamabad signals a clear preference for summit
diplomacy over incrementalism, in tune with PM
Modis personalized approach. Talk and terror have
almost gone hand in hand ever since India and
Pakistan embarked on a structured Composite
Recent Indo-Pak Engagement on Terror and the Pathankot Attack: Implications for India
Implications for India
Dr. Sabita Harichandan
Dialogue in 1997. Within months of the foreign
secretary talks that announced the onset of the
process of composite dialogue, that year witnessed a
series of terror attacks including seven blasts in Delhi
which more than 60 people. In February 1999, PM
Atal Bihari Vajpayee took a bus to Lahore and signed
Lahore Declaration. Kargil War of May 1999
contributed to the disruption of the peace process.
Agra summit was held in 2001 between Prime
Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and then President
Parvez Musharraf. It was followed by terrorist attack
on Indian Parliament in December 2001. The
perpetrators were Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM ) and
ISI backed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists. The
attack prompted India to mobilize troops along the
international border with Pakistan and force the latter
to clamp down on its terror infrastructure. During
Dr.Manmohan Singhs dispensation, talks were also
accompanied by cross-border terror strikes mostly
from Pakistans side. Periods of 2007-08 witnessed
the maximum engagement with close to a dozen
secretary-level meetings. No significant policy
measure has been able to prevent their recurrence.
During 2007-2008, major cities like Varanasi,
Hyderabad and others across the country witnessed
low-intensity terror attacks, supposedly orchestrated
by local feeder groups backed by Pakistani mentors.
Again, Prime Minister Narendra Modis invitation to
Pakistans Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to participate
in his swearing-in-ceremony in May 2014 was
accompanied by terror attack on Dinanagar police
station in Gurdaspur district of Punjab on 27 July 2015.
Frequent Pakistani provocations and saboteurs of
peace have stalled the talk process. Prime Minister
Modi commented, Pakistan has lost the strength to
fight a conventional war, but continues to engage in
the proxy war of terrorism. Indias contention that
frequent ceasefire violations along LoC and
43
International boundary are designed to provide cover
to terrorists crossing the border seems to be plausible.
Recently, the issue of terrorism has occupied the
centre stage to a greater extent due to Indias
insistence. The process of Composite Dialogue is kept
under suspension for the time being. While speaking
at the General Debate of the 70th session of the United
Nations General Assembly on October 2015, External
Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj emphatically made
it clear that talks and terror do not go hand in hand.
This was precisely discussed and decided by the two
Prime Ministers at Ufa in July 2015. To quote her,
let us hold talks at the level of NSAs on all issues
connected to terrorism and an early meeting of our
Directors General of Military Operations to address
the situation on the border. If the response is serious
and credible, India is prepared to address all
outstanding issues through a bilateral dialogue. She
cautioned that use of terrorism as a legitimate
instrument of statecraft having deleterious impact
cannot be accepted. Organised global action and
adoption of comprehensive UN convention on
terrorism which would provide a legal framework to
combat terrorism were advocated by her. She also
insisted that the countries providing finance to
terrorists and safe havens for their training, arming
and operations must be made to pay heavy price.
Now Hurriyat leadership can meet the visiting
Pakistani dignitaries as they did prior to 2014, but
only after the bilateral talks were held. The trajectory
of talks remained unproductive due to the prevalent
pattern of terror attack before every bilateral talk
and oscillation of policy between talk and no-talk.
The trajectory of talks, terror strikes and collapse of
talks is presented below:
. Lahore bus diplomacy and signing of Lahore
declaration on 21 February 1999 between Vajpayee
and Sharif getting death blow due to Kargil war of
May-July 1999;
. Washing out of peace dividends of July 2001 Agra
summit held between General Parvez Musharraf and
Atal Bihari Vajpayee by December 2001 terrorist
attack on Indian Parliament;
. Cancellation of first dialogue meeting after 2008
Mumbai terror attack due to terror attack on German
Bakery in Pune on 13 February 2010;
44 World Focus February 2016
. Cancellation of Foreign Ministers talk on 13 January
2013 after two Indian soldiers were beheaded by
Pakistani troops;
. Firing at India-Pakistan border in October 2014
that killed more than 30 people and resulted in a
huge loss of property after Sharif attended swearing-
in ceremony of PM Modi on May 2014;
. Cancellation of Foreign Secretaries (FS) level talk
scheduled to be held in Islamabad on August 2014
over the Pakistan High Commissioners meeting with
Hurriyat leaders in New Delhi, pointing to new red
lines in engagement;
. A day ahead of Modi-Sharif talk in Ufa in Russia
on July 2015, a BSF jawan getting killed in North
Kashmir due to Pak firing;
. Ahead of BSF and Pakistan Rangers talk, Gurdaspur
terror attack on Dinanagar police station taking place
in 27 July 2015 and a BSF bus being subject to terror
strike in Udhampur in August 2015 killing two
personnel;
. Post-Ufa ceasefire violations in LoC and
International border;
. Around 685 ceasefire violations by Pakistan
between July 2014 to February 2015 according to
media reports;
. Cancellation of NSA-level talk on 23-24 August
2015 on Hurriyat question;
. Meeting of Modi and Sharif at Ufa on July 2015
and at Paris climate Summit on 30 November 2015;
. The meeting of the National Security Advisors
(NSA) in Bangkok on 6 December 2015;
. Modis friendship overtures exhibited in his
unannounced visit to Lahore to wish PM Sharif on
his birthday on 25 December 2015 being followed by
deadliest Pathankot airbase attack on 2 January 2016
in which seven Indians were martyred;
. Postponement of FS level talks, though by mutual
consent, scheduled to be held in Islamabad on 15
January 2016.
The Prime Ministers of both the countries
had met at Ufa on July 2015 on the sidelines of SCO
Summit. Both leaders condemned terrorism in all its
forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to
eliminate this menace from South Asia and maintain
peace along the border. They also agreed on the
following steps to be taken by the two sides:
. A meeting in New Delhi between the two NSAs to
discuss all issues related to terrorism;
. Early meetings of DG BSF and DG Pakistan
Rangers followed by that of DGMOs;
. Discussion on ways and means to expedite the
Mumbai case trial including additional information like
providing voice samples.
The meeting of the National Security
Advisors in Bangkok on 6 December 2015, the visit
of External Affairs Minister to Islamabad to attend
Heart of Asia meeting on 8 December and
impromptu visit of PM Modi to Lahore after
cancellation of FS level talk in 2014 insinuate Indias
inclination to break the current impasse and give
momentum to peace initiatives. Delhis insistence that
Pakistans NSA should not talk to the Hurriyat leaders
in Delhi led to the collapse of 23-24 August 2015
talks. Indias new redline on meetings with Kashmir
separatists was not acceptable to Pakistan
government. Meeting between the NSA Ajit Doval
and his counterpart, Retd General Naseer Khan
Januja took place in Bangkok. India had wanted the
NSA level talk to be focused on the issue of terrorism,
while Pakistan wanted Kashmir to be placed on the
agenda. The joint statement implied that the concerns
of both including the issues of terrorism, Kashmir,
tranquility along the LoC were incorporated. Indias
position that the NSAs should meet before other
engagements has also been met. In August India had
insisted that no third party referring to Hurriyat
leaders should be involved. But ahead of talks,
Pakistani high commissioner Abdul Basit invited the
Kashmiri separatists to a tea reception-a usual ritual
to underscore Islamabads point that Kashmiris have
a stake in the dispute. This development gave a jolt
to the peace initiatives and talk was cancelled. Grand
diplomatic gestures can certainly play a big role in
breaking logjams between countries. But the
extremely unconventional and bold gambit of PM Modi
to make a stopover in Lahore on 25 December 2015
was always fraught with risks. Again India was
stabbed at the back in Pathankot terror attack which
took place on 2 January 2016. A big terror attack
Recent Indo-Pak Engagement on Terror and the Pathankot Attack: Implications for India
was always on the cards after the flurry of meetings
between Indian and Pakistani leaders in Paris, Ufa,
Bangkok, Islamabad and Lahore. It is generally
believed that Pakistan army and ISI are the spoilers
of peace initiatives. The escalating violence between
the two nuclear-weapon states, which have fought
four wars, threatens to go worse. The Pakistani army
supported by ISI has the capability to launch more
attacks with the help of their proxies with little notice.
According to the prevalent narrative, Pakistan will
continue to carry out high-impact attacks to keep
testing and enquiring Indias resolve and
preparedness. Starke reality is that Pakistan is known
for its double game and doublespeak. As it cannot
win a conventional war against India over J&K,
Islamabads main strategy has been to destabilize
and bleed India by a thousand cuts. In the wake of
the Mumbai terror attacks in November 2008, Indias
outrage resulted in scuttling dialogue with Pakistan.
Pakistan leaders succumbing to pressure exerted by
international community, promised full cooperation in
investigating the role of terrorists involved in the
attack. Arrests were made and a trial was initiated.
Dawood Ibrahim, mastermind of 1993 Mumbai serial
blasts, Maulana Masood Azhar, mastermind of 2001
Indian Parliament attack and 2016 Pathankot attack,
Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and Hafiz Saeed,
masterminds of 26/11 terror attack, Sayeed
Salahudeen`, chief of Hizbul Mujahideen are roaming
scot-free and yet to be brought to justice. Hardliners
in Pakistan account this to presence of insufficient
evidence to convict anyone. Counter-terrorism analyst
Anil Kamboj opined, Pakistan military and its
intelligence agency ISI that openly backs the terrorist
groups to unleash attacks on Indian soil want to tell
Nawaz Sharif that they are the final authority and
not the PM. The Pak army does not want any civilian
peace talks or initiatives to take place. They want an
aggressive posture towards India and disrupted talks.
On the next day of PM Modis visit to Pakistan,
Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed spew venom
against India. The combined inputs of Indias
intelligence agencies suggest that the Pakistan army
is not fully on board with Nawaz Sharifs efforts to
usher an era of peace with India.
45
 At the same time, Pakistan displays its
inclination to engage India in comprehensive dialogue
to show the world that Pakistan is not a pariah state.
Pakistan continues to send mixed responses. Prompt
denial of involvement, condemnation of terror attacks
on Indian targets, making promise to take actions
against perpetrators of terror, politely asking for
evidence and then doing nothing constitute the
components of policy tactics adopted by Pakistan.
The Pakistan government pretends it knew nothing
about the attack while the army puts the blame
squarely on rogue terror groups and non-state actors
over which, it says it has no control. Pakistans
allegations of Indias support to insurgency in
Balochistan and FATA and the equally bizarre
allegation of funding the Pakistani Taliban are made
to tarnish the image of India in the international fora.
Skepticisms and misgivings persist among hardliners
in both sides.
Pathankot Terror Attack: A reality check
On 29 December 2015, there was specific intelligence
input of two teams of Pakistani terrorists having
infiltrated into India. The input was specific about
military installations being high on the terror radar
along with nuclear installations. On 31 December,
the intelligence was zeroed in on Punjab. On 2 January
2016, six heavily armed terrorists in Indian army
uniform attacked the Pathankot air base, one of
Indias largest air force near the border. Attack was
designed to inflict maximum damage to strategic
assets-aircraft, helicopters, radars, air defense system
and the command and control apparatus. The aim
was a high value target- but not on the scale of 26/11
Mumbai terror attack. They could manage to enter
the air force base and caused casualties to the seven
security personnel. No civilian casualties took place.
According to Defense Ministry release, the infiltrators
were immediately engaged and neutralized within a
limited area due to the joint efforts of Army, Air Force
and National Security Guards (NSG), thereby
preventing them from entering the technical zone
which houses strategic assets. The heavy ammunition
the terrorists used including mortars underscores the
military-style training they had undergone. Defence
Minister Manohar Parrikar said that he was worried
46 World Focus February 2016
as to how the terrorists had managed to come inside
the base which has a perimeter of 24 kms and located
in an area of about 2000 acres. India having prior
intelligence of the attack responded in a defensive
way. The usual narrative of Pakistan attacking through
its proxies like JeM again got credence . The first
ramification of the attack has been the reinforcement
of the fact that non-state actors continue to enjoy the
impunity of the Pakistani security establishment and
ISI. Given the enabling environment in Pakistan, they
became able to plan and execute these attacks which
gave a massive blow to diplomatic engagement and
dtente. Since Pakistan government was prompt in
denouncing the attack and promising cooperation in
jointly combating terrorism, Prime Minister Modi
condemned the attack branding the terrorists as
enemies of humanity and avoiding a direct reference
to Pakistan. It was something novel, something totally
different from the temptation to plunge into
instantaneous denunciation of Pakistan for its
presumed involvement in yet another episode of
terrorism on Indian soil. Measured and carefully
calibrated stance of Indian government is laudable.
India did not pin the blame on Pakistan. Instead, it
made it clear that it was too early to know the
perpetrators of dastardly crime. Indias response is,
in fact, astute and morally grounded, unlike the knee-
jerk reaction of previous times. Astute diplomacy and
sagacity were discernible. Reactions of opposition
parties except Shiv Sena were moderate. Delhis
message between the lines was, of course, evidently
clear. The alacrity with which India collected the
evidence and shared dossier with Pakistan containing
leads on the Pathankot attack is exemplary.
Intercepts of telephonic conversations between the
terrorists and their mentors in Pakistan were also
shared. The ball, as Indian Foreign Ministry
spokesman articulated, is proverbially in Pakistans
court. Will the peace initiatives and political capital
invested by both Prime Ministers pay dividends?
Pathankot attack represented a worst breach of
national security. The Pathankot terror strike
coincided with an attack on the Indian consulate in
Mazar-i-Sharif, which also came within a week of
PM Modis visit to Afghanistan. India was attacked
at home and abroad. Distressingly low level of
preparedness to thwart terror strikes is on display.
The attack was designed to derail the talk process
started with much enthusiasm between India and
Pakistan and new comprehensive dialogue formalized
by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in
Islamabad in December. The ball, as Indian Foreign
Ministry spokesman articulated, is proverbially in
Pakistans court. Will the peace initiatives and political
capital invested by both the Prime Ministers pay
dividends?
Incident of Pathankot attack witnessed three
major lapses. Firstly, terrorists succeeded in breaching
the international border and entering India. The second
was the manner in which Salvinder Singh,
superintendent of Punjab police was abducted and
allowed to go and the reaction of the Punjab police to
the alarm he raised. It needs proper investigation.
The third was the success terrorists had in entering
the IAF station breaching the perimeter somewhere
along the 24km area. In this context, few pertinent
questions related to the area of operation of the
terrorists, way of infiltration, targets and objective of
attack, modus operandi and the future cropped up. It
is noteworthy that terror activities have shifted from
J&k to Punjab. Of late, Punjab has become a soft
target due to drug-terror nexus. Smugglers and drug
mafia reportedly facilitate infiltration and terror
strikes. According to security experts, the militants
could have sneaked into the Indian Territory through
the nullahs at Indo-Pak border which do not have
wired fencing. The Pathankot strike has a
resemblance with Gurdaspur terror attack where
terrorists resorted to indiscriminate firing using AK-
47. It caught security forces unaware.
At this crucial juncture, the greater
responsibility rests on the political leaders. Instead of
bickering, indulging in blame game and politicizing
terror, they are expected to exhibit the political
determination to deal with terror threats at source.
This implies a proactive policy of targeting and
eliminating terror sources, be it within the country
and outside. The challenge for Modi government
will be to utilize talks as a test of Pakistans sincerity
and hold its feet to fire on the issue of terrorism.
Recent Indo-Pak Engagement on Terror and the Pathankot Attack: Implications for India
Hollow commitments and rhetoric, condemnatory
statements and complacency would not do.
Skepticism prevails. There should be visible actions.
It needs to be stressed that the Pathankot assault
was a rude reminder that civilian administration in
Pakistan do not wield much authority and influence.
The resumption of dialogue has again been aborted
by developments which are beyond the control of
both the governments. India by submitting strong
evidences of involvement of Pak-based terrorist
groups like JeM has demanded for prompt and
decisive actions within time bound framework from
Pakistan. Pakistans Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed
Chaudhry commented that Pakistan would not allow
terrorists to use its territory to launch attacks on the
other countries. Mr.Sharif also while reiterating the
anti-terror commitment maintained, Pakistan is
swiftly carrying out investigations in a transparent
manner and will bring out the truth. The world will
see our effectiveness and sincerity in this regard.
Pakistan is eliminating terrorism on its soil and will
not allow any one to use Pakistani soil to conduct
terror operations abroad, After US Secretary of
State John Kerry called up PM Sharif, Pakistan
promised quick action. Now onus lies with Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif has ordered probe into Pathankot
attackers link with Pakistan. Given the fact of
persisting differences in Pakistani civil and military
leaderships, very less is expected. India wants UN
to ban Pakistan based terrorists. India is preparing
dossiers on terrorists based in Pakistan including
alleged mastermind of Pathankot attack Maulana
Masood Azhar, chief of JeM and his brother Abdul
Rauf Asghar, seeking a ban on the militants under
the United Nations Security resolution 1267 which
was adopted on 15 October 1999. According to some
sources, the decision to seek a ban on Pak-based
terrorists was taken to mount pressure on Pakistan
to act. Intelligence reports indicate that military
installations in border areas are still a vulnerable target
and more Pathankot-type attacks could be carried
out by Pakistan-based terror outfits. Former Pakistan
General (retired) Parvez Musharraf, in an interview
given to Pakistani TV channel, said that India should
not overreact to the Pathankot terror strike as such
incidents would keep happening in the future due to
47
prevalence of terrorism in both the countries. Both
are the victims of terrorism. Army Chief General
Dalbir Singh Suhag contended that at least seventeen
of the forty two terror-training camps identified earlier
in Pakistan and PoK are still very active in exporting
terror and engaging in proxy war against India. The
new equation is that the Americans nudge India and
the Chinese pressurize Pakistan to ensure stability in
South Asia where they have stakes. International
pressure on Pakistan has been building up. The US
wants Pakistan to walk the talk and act fast against
Pathankot attack perpetrators. Negative aspect of
this is that it re-introduces hyphenation of India with
Pakistan. India does not want its strategic space to
be circumscribed by their overwhelming presence in
the given context. But their pressure on Pakistan is
welcome particularly on the issue of terrorism and
use of non-state actors.
New developments
A new scenario has emerged this time. Cooperative
overtures in lieu of hostilities stemmed from both
sides. Tacit acceptance by Pakistan of the fact that
perpetrators most probably belonged to their country
is discernible. Similarly, Indian response has been one
of measured restraint. India provided Pakistan with
actionable intelligence against the perpetrators
including the JeM handlers, call details, the DNA
samples of six fidayeen attackers, the weapons
possessed by them etc. Moving beyond tokenism is
expected from Pakistan. Developments after attack
suggest that the policy of talk, wait, watch, talk
might work this time in dealing with Pakistan. Going
ahead with talks in the near future will certainly ensure
mobilization of world public opinion in Indias favour.
Following unprecedented developments insinuate
positive signs in Indo-Pak engagement on tackling
terrorism:
. No denial of involvement in the attack by Pakistan
government ;
. Carrying out raid and crackdown on offices of
JeM, accused of carrying out the Pathankot attack
and arresting its operatives and members by Pakistan
government;
48 World Focus February 2016
. PM Sharif convening many high level meetings to
take stock of the situation and taking army chief
General Raheel Sharif on board;
. Formation of Joint Investigation Team ( JIT) by
Pakistan government to probe the attack;
. Pakistans unprecedented move to send a Special
Investigation Team (SIT) comprising a six man
investigation committee including ISI and military
officials to visit Pathankot to probe and India
welcoming this joint investigation which is going to
be done for the first time;
. Indias readiness to extend all cooperation to bring
the perpetrators to justice;
. Two NSAs staying in continuous touch thereby
keeping the communication channels open even after
the occurrence of the attack.
Unlike in earlier years, because of these
positive steps, trust deficit is overcome to some extent.
Despite media reports quoting police and intelligence
officials on the protective detention and questioning
of JeM founder Masood Azhar, there was no
confirmation from the Pakistani government
regarding this, as pointed by MEA officials. The
present scenario has led to the cropping of many
pertinent questions which need to be answered. Will
Pakistan hand over Azhar to India for questioning?
Is the crackdown on JeM, one of the deadliest terror
groups in South Asia, is mere eyewash or cosmetic
exercise to salvage the talk process? If Pakistan does
not deliver, as is more likely, then India must resort to
more robust, hard-hitting, unrelenting policy to inflict
punishment on Pakistan and its proxies. Pakistan will
deliver precious little. 26/11 trial is still floundering.
Given the fact of persisting differences in Pakistani
civil and military leaderships, very lely.ss is expected.
Pakistan army still distinguishes good terrorists like
LeT and JeM and bad terrorists like Pakistan
Taliban.
Lessons and Implications
The Pathankot attack is an eye opener for India in
many respects. Causes of inept handling and
passiveness of Indias counter-terror movement can
be attributed to the following factors:
. Inconsistent Pakistan policy;
. India lagging behind in taking preventive or pre-
emptive actions;
. Lack of political consensus on dealing with Pakistan
on the issue of terrorism;
. Absence of adequate preparedness of defense
security system;
. Security shortcomings of defense establishments
and several chinks in our border security mechanisms,
both in terms of human surveillance and physical
infrastructure;
.. Critical operational deficiencies;
Lack of coordination and insufficient dissemination
among myriad security and intelligence agencies with
overlapping roles but limited convergence;
.Burgeoning links between drug syndicates, terrorists
and corrupt officials and terrorists using drug routes;
. Lack of a cohesive command and control structure
of the agencies which are there to provide security
cover and neutralize terrorist threats;
. Inept handling of looming threat despite specific
intelligence input provided in advance;
..Absence of a written National Security Doctrine;
Mismatch between the capacities of intelligence
agencies and tactics employed by terrorists;
..
Intelligence inadequacies;
Laxity and failure of BSF and State police to stop
infiltration;
.
Punjab State police forces being ill-equipped, under-
trained and not sufficiently trained to deal with a terror
situation.
Suffice it to say, Indias Pakistan policy is
very inconsistent. Indias response is always reactive
and in the defensive. War with Pakistan, a nuclear
power, is a non-option. Meanwhile, Pakistan has made
serious charges regarding Indias alleged covert
support of terrorism directed against that country. It
handed over to the Obama administration in October
2015 dossiers indicating Indias involvement in
terrorist violence in Baluchistan. US administration
emphasized in joint statement issued after Sharifs
visit, that both India and Pakistan should discuss their
mutual concerns over terrorism. Regular doses of
advice administered to both Modi and Sharif from
their friends abroad, particularly those in the western
world, no doubt seems to be having some effect. In
the past few months, India has had a dialogue with
Recent Indo-Pak Engagement on Terror and the Pathankot Attack: Implications for India
old friends of Pakistan like UAE and Saudi Arabia
on the dangers emanating from Pak-based terror
outfits. It deserves mention that terror strike from
across Pakistan will go uninterrupted, despite the fact
that talk is there or not. Hence, the obvious thing to
do is for the government to proceed on the dialogue
track with the full backing of national consensus.
Suspending the India-Pakistan dialogue in the context
of a terrorist attack gives jihadis a veto over talks.
Three possible options need to be perused; first,
should India continue to trust Pakistan vis-a-vis whom
there is trust deficit; second, should Indian policy
makers make endeavour to engage the Pakistan army
directly and third, should India exercise the last resort
of Hot Pursuit or target terrorist camps operating from
PoK. Pakistan is yet to take stringent action against
the perpetrators of 26/11 attack. Other options as
suggested by analysts included snapping of
diplomatic ties by recalling high commissioner in
Islamabad and vice versa, downgrading Pakistani high
commission to consular status, imposing calibrated
economic sanctions to give a jolt to Pakistani economy,
hitting Pakistan by covert and overt operations by
hiring mercenaries (Baloch, Pashtuns and others).
There should be proportionate response and
impeccable deniability. It is amply clear for Pakistan
that Indian outrage is often short-lived.
Need for Comprehensive Response
Another important question that needs to be
addressed is how to prevent the recurrence of
terrorist attacks in big cities and strategic bases. The
26/11 experience suggests it was not technically a
failure of intelligence gathering. There was the alert
of a possible fidayeen attack. It was more a failure
of policy implementation and the inability of our
intelligence agencies to pin down what specific targets
were at risk and the exact date and time they would
be at risk. The Pathankot attack was known one day
before. A better security arrangement could have been
made to foil the attack. Security lapses, role of insiders
etc should be investigated by NIA. .Following
measures need to be adopted by India.
. Constructive engagement with Pakistan and
mounting pressure on Pakistan to act against
perpetrators of terror for the benefit of both;
49
. Bilateral and multilateral counter-terrorism
cooperation with US, EU, China and other countries
this happened in case of release of dreaded terrorist
Maulana Masood Azhar;
to put pressure on Pakistan at various levels in
different fora;
. Enhancing people-to-people contact and creating
peoples movement for peace in the form of
..Formulation of a National Security Doctrine;
Formulation of a consistent and coherent Pak policy
exchanges like sports meet, arts exhibition etc.;
. Emphasis on track II diplomacy as well.
based on political consensus;
.Need for anti-terror capacity-building to meet actual
contingency situations and strengthen the security
Concluding Observations
In the wake of Pathankot attack, numerous
infrastructure for national preparedness; challenges resurfaced. Terrorism resulted in many
. Adequate preparedness to confront complex
challenges emanating from drug-terror nexus;
deaths, including those of school children in the
December 2014 attack on a Peshawar school in
. ;Fixing of accountability for acts of commission
and omission;
Pakistan. Pakistan has also witnessed dastardly
terrorist attacks on its own soil. Will they be tempted
.Formulation of clear cut national security strategy
spelling out the command and control structures for
to swallow the terrorists bait and surrender the peace
dividends of bilateral engagement to rogue actors
meeting eventualities like terror strikes; whose mission is to foil and sabotage peace process?
. Intelligence sharing, filling perceived gaps in
intelligence gathering and processing, gathering
Though summit diplomacy and bilateral talks come
with risks, sustained political will can deliver win-win
credible intelligence inputs and real-time actionable solutions and outcomes. We no longer inhabit a world
intelligence on targets; where the argument your terrorist is not my terrorist
. Better and more effective inter-agency
coordination;
hold much weight. Both are the victims of terrorism.
United global action is required. There should be
. Bolstering counter- terrorist, offensive, quick
response and retaliatory capabilities;
cautious optimism as well. India has to wait and
watch. The present gesture of Pakistan is at variance
..Strengthening border security;
Strengthening counter-infiltration grid along the
with broader public perception and narrative prevalent
in India. Pakistan should be given more time to take
border; action-oriented steps. Both the countries should not
. Better border management through fencing,
effective patrolling, installing observation posts etc.
be hostages to the nefarious and insidious terrorist
agenda. Undoubtedly, this adversely impacts their
.Increasing institutionalized cooperation with other
countries in sharing lessons learnt, training personnel
society, polity and economy. The mere fact that India
has been subject to constant terror attacks amply
and emulating tactics and sharing intelligence and necessitates effective response and actions. Indo-
technology advancements; Pak engagement on terror should constitute one of
. Creation and evolution of Multiple Assault Counter
Terrorism Action Capabilities and membership in
the significant components of a comprehensive
counter-terror policy and strategy for India.
Global Counterterrorism Forum;
.Modernization of State police forces;
Making no concessions to terrorists and striking no
References
1.IDSA comment on July 20, 2015, see www. Idsa. In.
deals with terrorists as it may prove to be costly and 2.See www. Claws.in, January 5, 2016.
3.The Hindu, January 12, 2016

Corrigendum
In December 2015 issue of World Focus in the article of Dr. Satish Kumar, the name of Amrendar Kumar as Research Scholar,
Center for International Legal Studies, SIS, JNU, New Delhi has been published inadvertently as the co-author. The co-author
is actually Amrendar Kumar , a Ph.D. Scholar at IGNOU, New Delhi. We deeply regret the error.
-WORLD FOCUS

50 World Focus February 2016

 Changing Geo-politics of Central Asia:
Its Susceptibility to Terrorism
Introduction
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders
summit took place in October 2015 in the Kazakh
resort town of Burabay, where international terrorism
and regional defense were core issues. Russian
President Vladimir Putin warned of a spillover of
violence from Afghanistan into the Central Asian
region and floated creating a joint border task force
with the other CIS members.1Putin planned to form
a grouping of border guard services and other
agencies from Commonwealth countries to resolve
crisis situations at the border. Such a move may be
interpreted variedly by analysts and those who are
keen observers of the development that is taking place
within Central Asia. The most prominent view that
did the round was that Central Asias authoritarian
leaders hype the threat of ISIS incursions and
Afghanistan spillover, using terrorism as pretext for
crackdown on opposition. Putin has often been
blamed for fanning such fears for obvious reason that
a pro-Russian government must be at the helm of
affairs within the countries of Central Asian republics.
Russia intends to take comparative advantage of its
proximity with Central Asian countries vis--vis US
and West, as guarantor of their security and
prosperity.
Putin, in his interactions with other heads of
state in the same summit, made the remark that the
situation there is really close to critical as terrorists
of all kinds are gaining influence and do not hide their
plans for further expansion. One of their goals is to
break through into the Central Asian region. It is
important that the leadership of Central Asian
countries be ready for coordinated action to respond
any such attempts.2Putins claims were substantiated
by the fact that according to various estimates 5000
to 7000 people from Russia and other CIS countries
are fighting on the side of the Islamic State and that
such forces are required to be checked so that they
do not put their experience that they have acquired
in Syria to use in Central Asia at a later stage.3
Changing Geo-politics of Central Asia: Its Susceptibility to Terrorism
Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta
However, according to other sources there are well
over 5000 Central Asians fighting in Syria and Iraq,
but not all of them have joined ISIS. There are Central
Asians on both sides of the Syrian Civil War. 4
However, the fact remains that given such a situation
a threat to security and safety looms large over the
Central Asian republics, especially in view of presence
of huge resources of oil and gas, as these countries
are along the Caspian Sea basin. Moreover, their
demographic profile is such that a threat is always
imminent with growing terroristic activities in West
Asia or middle-east countries especially Syria and
Iraq. Therefore, it makes it imperative to explore the
possibilities of growth of terrorism in Central Asian
region in the wake of fast changing geo-politics of
the region.
Central Asias Profile: Advantages versus
Disadvantages
Comprising the republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, Central Asia
is almost certain to become the new global
battleground. Its history has been marked by more
than two thousand years of conflict, as the great
empires of the past fought to control the commercial
lifeline linking Europe and Asia, the Silk Route (Almost
the only empire that did not at one time or another
rule part or all of Central Asia was the Roman
Empire).5However, todays conflicts differ from the
struggles of the past, and they stem largely from the
changes wrought in the region by the erstwhile Soviet
Unionand from the chaos that accompanied its
dissolution in 1991. Coming into existence of these
countries did not translate into an urge for democracy,
the market economy, or Western culture and
consumerism, as was the case elsewhere in the former
Soviet Union, for example Russia and the Baltic
republics. Instead, Islamic revival swept through the
region. One of the key tenets of the Soviet system
had been that religion was incompatible with
communism, and the Communist methodically set
about repressing all forms of religious expression
51
within the country. As the Soviet empire fell apart,
the people of Central Asia, who had been forced to
renounce or hide their religion for seventy-four years,
at last saw an opportunity to connect spiritually and
culturally with their Islamic past.
The Central Asians embraced Islam not only
to re-establish their own ethnic and cultural identity
but to reconnect with their Muslim neighbours to the
south, who had been cut-off from them ever since
Stalin closed the borders between the Soviet Union
and the rest of the world. Almost the first new visitors
to the independent Central Asian republics were
Islamic missionaries from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, and elsewhere, who helped build hundreds
of new mosques and distributed free copies of the
Koran translated into Russian and other native
languages. Millions of Central Asians emotionally
seized this opportunity to rediscover their identity and
heritage, all of which they linked intimately with
Islam.6 Therefore, prolonged suppression of their
religious expressions and faith under the communist
regime on account of their subjugation is bound to
pop-up given the pan-Islamic movement and feeling
within the Islamic world. Moreover, the demographic
profile of the Central Asian countries is suggestive of
its growing inclination towards middle-east or other
Islamic countries in the long-term owing to traditional
and religious affinity. Religion, as Marx said is opium
to the society, is a strong pull-factor for enhancing
affinity and strengthening ties with the countries with
similar religious denomination. Christianity was a
factor at one point of time for affinity within nation-
states of the world and Islam has been one of the
most important factors in the recent past. Such a
claim could be further substantiated even through a
cursory glance over the demographic profile of Central
Asian republics and their religious affiliations.
Religious Profile of Central Asian Countries
The people of Central Asia are predominantly Sunni
Muslims of the Hannafi sect. Shia Muslims make up
a small minority in some of the great trading cities,
like Bukhara and Samarkand, as well as in Tajikistan,
where the Ismaeli sect, whose spiritual leader is Aga
Khan, can be found in the Gorno-Badakhshan region
of the Pamir Mountains. Since 1991 Central Asia has
also seen a meteoric rise of militant Islamic sects,
each with its own brand of orthodoxy and sharia
52 World Focus February 2016
(Islamic law), and this phenomenon has obscured one
of the most important aspects of traditional Central
Asian Islamits tolerance.7 Characterized by major
advances in philosophy, ethics, legal codes, and
scientific researches under largely liberal political
rulers, and spread through a vast region by Arabs,
Mongols, and Turks, the Islam of Central Asia took
many forms. Early Central Asian Muslims coexisted
in relative peace not only with one another but also
with the Jews, Buddhists, Hindus, Zoroastrians, and
Nestorian Christians who had established pockets of
civilization in the region.8Central Asia is thus, a home
to Islam in a substantive way with traditions of
suppressions and oppressions, which may act like a
catalyst for attracting youths of the region to terrorism.
Here are country-wise profiles of Islamic
denominations in Central Asia.
Uzbekistans demographic profile consists of
81 per cent of Uzbeks, 5.4 per cent Russians, 4 per
cent Tajiks, 3 per cent Kazakhs and nearly 6.5 per
cent people belonging to other religion. A majority of
Uzbeks are non-denominational Muslims.9 Non-
denominational Muslims are Muslims who do not
belong to a specific Islamic denomination, but accept
Islam as a religion.
Kazakhstan which is populated by nearly 131
ethnic groups includes Kazakhs as 63 per cent of its
population, whereas Russians, Uzbeks, Germans,
Tatars and Uyghurs are other ethnic groups. Islam is
the religion of about 70 per cent of population, and 26
per cent of population practices
10
Christianity. According to Pew Research Project on
Religious and Public Life, Kazakhstan is the country
with largest population of non-denominational Muslims
which consists of 74 per cent of its population.
Tajikistan consists of 84.3 per cent Tajik, 13.8
per cent Uzbek, 0.8 per cent Kyrgyz, and 1.1 per
cent of other religions. Majority of its population follow
Sunni Islam. Sunni Islam of the Hanafi School has
been officially recognized by the Government since
2009 even though it claims to be a Secular State.
According to a US State Department release and
Pew Research Group, the population of Tajikistan is
98 per cent Muslims, with approximately 87 to 95 per
cent of them as Sunni and roughly 3 per cent are
Shia and 7 per cent are non-denominational Muslims.11
According to CIA World Fact book the ethnic
composition of Turkmenistan is 85 per cent as
Turkmen, 5 per cent as Uzbek, 4 per cent as Russian
and 6 per cent as others (2003 estimates). According
to data announced in Ashgabat in February 2001, 91
per cent of the population are Turkmen, 3 per cent
are Uzbeks and 2 per cent are Russians. Turkmens
population in Turkmenistan nearly doubled during 1989
to 2001, whereas the population of Russians went
down by two-third.
Kyrgyzstan is another Central Asian country
with Kyrgyz, a Turkic people as largest ethnic group
comprising 72 per cent of the total population (2013
estimates). A country with over 80 ethnics groups
the other ethnic groups are Russian (9 per cent),
Uzbeks (14.5 per cent), Dungans (1.9 per cent),
Uyghurs (1.1 per cent), Kazakhs (0.7 per cent) and
Ukrainians (0.5 per cent) and other smaller ethnic
minorities consisting of 1.7 per cent of the total
population.12According to Pew Research Centres
Religion and Public Life Project nearly 64 per cent
of the Kyrgyzstans population consists of non-
denominational Muslims.
Therefore, the religious and ethnic profile of
Central Asia makes it obvious that on an average 75
to 80 per cent of its population is of Islamic origin,
even though most of them are non-denominational
Muslims, i.e. they follow Islam but are not categorised
in terms of a particular sect or school of thought.
One country is such which is dominantly Sunni sect
of Islamic tradition. Given the religious profile of
Central Asia one can easily figure out the vulnerability
of the region to terrorism, especially in the light of it
ever-increasing resource base of oil and gas, for
which the whole world is scrambling and a source of
conflict among the major powers of the world. The
fact cannot be denied that the region is seating on a
powder keg where a spark has already been lit and
is slowly inching towards a big-bang. Moreover, the
revelations of the recent past as to how even states
are involved in sale and purchase of oil with the non-
state actors (largely terrorists) in the oil and gas
international black market is suggestive enough of
the growing probabilities of incidence of terrorism in
the region at the behest of some major powers itself.
Russias allegations that Turkey has been involved in
oil and gas trade with ISIS as such illegal oil are
Changing Geo-politics of Central Asia: Its Susceptibility to Terrorism
available at cheaper rate, is a case in point, that with
changing geopolitics and world order, terrorism may
soon engulf the Central Asian region, the way it has
spread its tentacles in West Asia. The profile of political
dispensation also becomes a factor to this effect, as
most of these countries are democracies on paper
but authoritarian in functioning. World is a witness to
the fact that quite often authoritarian regimes act as
puppet or stooge of one or the other major powers to
stabilize and strengthen their hold on power and for
which they go to any extent in acting as leverage for
their exploiters. The opposing powers, in their urge to
use and exploit the resources of these countries, use
opponents of the existing political dispensation by
arming and funding them to dislodge the existing
regime, and install a regime of their choice which shall
facilitate them with oil and gas. The Great Oil Asian
Game in Afghanistan is a case in point. Whole world
is aware of the fact that the way Afghanistan stands
destroyed and is now struggling to put the broken
pieces together and restore peace and confidence of
citizens of Afghanistan. Middle-East countries are
another example to this effect. Two Gulf-wars on
the pretext of disciplining Iraq has almost weakened
Iraq to an extent that the present government seems
unable to stand firmly on the ground in the wake of
growing incidence of ISIS and other such
organizations in the country.
Therefore, Central Asia is an equally
vulnerable region, and its huge resources of oil and
gas, is all set to become a disadvantage rather than
advantage. These resources has attracted the major
powers of the world to the region and all these powers
have already started their political and diplomatic
game in the region to turn the course and direction of
the pipeline to suit their interests. The major power
struggle is being discussed as a New Great Game
in Central Asia. Such endeavours of big powers in
the region are bound to contribute towards political
instability, and a fertile ground for terrorist
organizations to make their way in the region with
their vested interests. Therefore, it is important to
understand the changing dynamics and geopolitics of
the region.
The Geopolitical Configurations of the Region
Central Asia, sometimes also referred to as Middle
Asia, is considered to be the core region of Asia,
53
expanse of which spreads from Caspian Sea in the
West to China in the East, Russia in the North to
Afghanistan in the South. It mainly consists of
Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan,
and Uzbekistan. However, Afghanistan also is
sometimes referred to as a Central Asian republic.
Fact remains that now Afghanistan is a formal
member of South Asian group known as SAARC
(South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation);
yet it has natural affinity and geographical congruity
with Central Asian region. This region is a huge source
of oil and gas. The region has long been a strategic
location on account of its proximity to several great
powers on the Eurasian landmass. The region never
had a dominant stationary population nor was able to
make use of its own natural resources for its own
development. Thus, it has rarely throughout history
become the seat of power for an empire or influential
state. Central Asia has been divided, re-divided,
conquered out of existence, and fragmented time and
time again. The region, therefore, thus far has served
more as the battleground for outside powers than as
a power in its own right. Mostly, it has been on the
receiving end of international and regional politics.
Central Asia has been fast turning into an ethnic
cauldron during the post-cold war era and is prone to
instability and conflicts, without a sense of national
identity but with tremendous religious fervour. Russia
alone cannot be considered a dominant player in the
region, but also Turkey, Iran, China, and Pakistan
alongside the United States. Fact remains that in
geopolitics, strategic realities can change with
surprising speed, and even before countries realize it
decisive shifts occur that shape the future for the
years to come.
Geo-political developments affecting
international relations on a global scale have
ramifications in Central Asia too. A rising China and
a rising India are two such possibilities that are going
to have its impact on the region. The War on Terror,
however long that may last, is going to affect the
geo-politics of Central Asian region. Something like
this also took place during the Cold War. While the
Soviet-American competition was the main event
during this era, several other geopolitically important
events were also occurring: the dismantling of the
West European colonial empires; the independence
of so many of their former colonies in Asia, the Middle-
54 World Focus February 2016
East, Africa and elsewhere; the emergence of Sino-
Soviet hostility, followed a few years later by the
emergence of Sino-American cooperation; the
growthas well as the growth in importance of what
would become the European Union; the initiation of
what Samuel Huntington referred to as the third
wave of democratization, which began with Spain
and Portugal in 1975, crested with the downfall of
communism in Eastern Europe in 1989, and continued
in several other countries afterward.13Therefore,
such course of events at the global and regional level
cannot serve mere examples, but also as historical
events that had its long-term deep rooted impact on
the global and regional order. In geopolitical even
smaller events of conflict, interaction as well as
bonhomie are of determining nature and either change
or prepare the ground for change of political order
within a region. There is hardly any doubt that the
course of events have changed tremendously in the
post-Soviet era in the region and the erstwhile
decision-maker and policy-maker for the region, i.e.
Russia is now struggling to contest its turf in the region
vis--vis US and West Europe, so that the direction
of the oil and gas pipelines are towards the east and
also transform the region as its area of influence so
that it may continue to exploit its oil and gas. Therefore,
it makes it imperative to understand the growing
incidence and impact of big powers and major players
in the region.
Russian Preponderance in Central Asia: Myth
or Reality
Russia has been the preeminent regional security
architect since the collapse of Soviet Union and
remains the major weapons supplier to regional
countries. Russia already has a significant military
presence in Central Asia which it plans to expand.
Russias leases on bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
were extended to 2042 and 2032 respectively, in 2013.
The Russian force in Tajikistan, already the largest
outside of Russia, is scheduled to grow to 9,000 troops
(up from around 6,000) by 2020. Earlier there were
reports in media that Moscow was sending a
helicopter unit to the Ayni airbase.14Therefore, strong
presence of Russian military and its hardware in the
region suggests that it has substantial presence in the
region and is somewhat holding on its battle-turf.
Russias preponderance in the region, thus cannot be
truly termed as a myth, rather its a reality in many
senses.
However, there remains weak spot in Putins
coverage of Russias peripheryparticularly along
the Afghan border. Turkmenistan, with 744 km border
with Afghanistan, is avowedly neutral. Turkmenistan
isnt a member of any of Russias various regional
clubsthe CIS, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU),
the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),
or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Uzbekistan, which is a member of the CIS, withdrew
from the CSTO in 2012. In September 2015 Karimov
said Uzbekistan wouldnt host any foreign militaries
and wouldnt get involved in foreign interventions.15
Therefore, such developments contributes to worries
for Russia which, ever since the collapse of Soviet
Union has been trying to keep these and other break-
away republics into its fold and formed a loosely held
groups of Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) in the immediate aftermath.
However, Russia continues to dominate the
political decision-making throughout the former Soviet
Socialist Republics; although, as other countries move
into the area, Russias influence has begun to wane
though Russia still maintain military bases in
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Russia in the wake of
Ukrainian endeavour and sanction by the West has
started asserting itself and is contesting its turf
strongly in the region and has also been successful
towards putting the US and NATO at the receiving
end. Russian adventure against ISIS into Syria and
Iraq must be read and understood in context with
Russias interests in Central Asia. US which has been
interested and active towards ousting Basar al-Asad
regime of Syria by supporting the anti-Asad forces
with arms, training and fund had almost free-play in
the Middle-East. Russia on the pretext of ousting ISIS
and in support of Asad entered the fray and has
started bombarding ISIS holds, and is also allegedly
involved in dislodging anti-Asad forces. Thus, Russia
has sent a strong signal to US and the West that it
will not be a mere observer of the events and allow
its opponents and rivals to design a regional and world-
order of their own choice. Russia has clearly and
categorically made it obvious to its rivals that if it can
contest US and West preponderance in Middle-East,
it can do so in Central Asia as well. Under such
circumstances West may turn soft on illegal anti-state
Changing Geo-politics of Central Asia: Its Susceptibility to Terrorism
forces and non-state actors in Central Asia to create
havoc and destabilize the existing political order, to
their own vested interests. Such probabilities raise
the vulnerabilities of the Central Asian region with
changing geo-politics in of the region.
United States Oil Diplomacy
United States with its military involvement in the region
and oil diplomacy is also significantly involved in the
regions politics. The United States and other NATO
members are the main contributors to the International
Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan and also
exert considerable influence in other Central Asian
nations. In the context of the United States War on
Terror, Central Asia has once again become the
Centre of geostrategic calculations. Pakistans status
has been upgraded by the US government to Major
non-NATO ally because of its central role in serving
as a staging point for the invasion of Afghanistan,
providing intelligence on Al-Qaeda operations in the
region, and leading the hunt on Osama bin Laden.
Therefore, in view of US presence in and ties with
Pakistan and Afghanistan, US is not going to forgo
its ground in Central Asian region; as it may also have
a backlash in other regions of the world. Other
opponents of US may also perceive it as US might
and diplomacy is on the wane. Therefore, US will
leave no stone unturned to contest its ground in the
region.
China and India
China has security ties with Central Asian states
through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) and conducts energy trade bilaterally. India
has geographical proximity to the Central Asian region
and, in addition, enjoys considerable influence on
Afghanistan. India maintains a military base at
Farkhor (Tajikistan), and also has extensive military
relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.16China
and India are both on the rise during the War on
Terror era, presenting challenges to geopolitical
calculations, both now and in the future. Both these
countries are in need of oil and gas as they are fast
growing largest economies of the world. There is
convergence of interest between Russia and China
and thus there are likelihood of their cooperation to
keep the direction of pipelines towards east so that
both may exploit the resources at the cost of US and
West. India is maintaining ambiguous statuses as it
55
requires building its relations on both sides and with
all the players in the region continues to have oil and
gas trade with Central Asian countries. Therefore,
India is treading its path in Central Asia quite
cautiously and deftly so that it can eat the cake
without irritating US, Russia and China.
Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Other
Interested Parties
Turkey also exerts considerable influence in the region
on account of its ethnic and linguistic ties with the
Turkic peoples of Central Asia and its involvement in
the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Political and
economic relations are growing rapidly (e.g. Turkey
eliminated visa requirements for citizens of the Central
Asian Turkic republics). Thus Turkey has the interest
that if the pipeline traverses through its land, it may
get benefitted by transit fee as well as have the oil
and gas at cheaper rate. However, Turkey seems to
be on the sides of US and that makes it interesting to
watch the turn of the events in future, as US is always
interested that if the oil and gas of the region traverses
via Turkey to the Mediterranean coast then it shall
be easier for US to further transport the same to its
own land. Shooting down of a Russian fighter plane
by Turkey recently has proved to be a game-changer
in the Russian fight against the ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
This has further worsened the relations between
Russia and Turkey.
Iran, the seat of historical empires that
controlled parts of Central Asia, has historical and
cultural links to the region and is vying to construct
an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Persian
Gulf. Strong ties between Russia and Iran and
bitterness between US and Iran is again a point that
needs to be taken note of. Irans interest in the Central
Asian oil and gas has added complexities to the
geopolitics of the region.
Pakistan has a history of political relations
with neighbouring Afghanistan and is termed capable
of exercising influence. For some Central Asian
nations, the shortest route to the ocean lies through
Pakistan. Pakistan seeks natural gas from Central
Asia and supports the development of pipelines from
its countries. According to an independent study,
Turkmenistan is supposed to be the fifth largest natural
gas field in the world. The mountain ranges and areas
56 World Focus February 2016
in northern Pakistan lie on the fringes of greater
Central Asia; the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Pakistan
lies adjacent to Tajikistan, separated only by the narrow
Afghan Wakhan Corridor. Being located on the north-
west of South Asia, the area forming modern-day
Pakistan maintained extensive historical and cultural
links with the Central Asian region. Pakistan being a
friend of US and China both further complicates the
changing geopolitics of the region.
Afghanistan was the target of a US invasion
in 2001 and on-going reconstruction and drug-
eradication efforts. US military bases have also been
established in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, causing
both Russia and the Peoples Republic of China to
voice their concern over a permanent US military
presence in the region. Therefore, US presence in
Afghanistan and involvement of China, India and
Russia in the reconstruction and rehabilitation work
within Afghanistan further complicates the geopolitical
understanding of the Central Asian region. Week state
structure and military strength of Afghanistan makes
it susceptible to terrorism with its consequent impact
on Central Asian republics.
Other potential challenges could arise from
the further development of the European Union;
Russias attempted resurgence; the rise of Brazil,
Indonesia and possibly other powers; and the fate of
non-Islamist revolutionary enterprises, especially the
Bolivarian socialist one led by Hugo Chavez in Latin
America, and the Maoists in South Asia. Any of these
possibilities, however, could also prove illusory; yet it
remains a force to reckon with and as a source of
future instability and disturbance in the region.
There is hardly any doubt that the War on
Terror especially the way in which the United States
has prosecuted it has affected the larger geopolitical
context of international relations. The entities that are
now or are on the cusp of becoming great powers
are the United States, the European Union, Russia,
China and India. Relations among these five are
neither completely friendly nor completely hostile.
Some of the bilateral relations among them are more
friendly (especially those between America and the
EU) while others are less so (the United States and
Russia; China and India). One thing all five have in
common, though, is that, even before 9/11, each of
these great powers had contentious relations with one
or more Muslim opponents. All five are treading into
different regions of the world in search of oil and gas
as well as other opportunities that may further their
commercial interests.
The region along with Russia is also part of
the great pivot according to Heartland Theory of
Halford Mackinder, which says that the power which
controls Central Asiarichly endowed with natural
resourcesshall ultimately be the empire of the
world.17The emerging geopolitics in Central Asia is
suggestive enough that the scramble for control of
the region is already on its way. Western governments
have accused Russia, China and the former Soviet
republics of justifying the suppression of separatist
movements, and the associated ethnics and religion
with the War on Terror. Given Mackinders advocacy
on the one hand, and the evolving nature of geopolitics
in Central Asia on the other hand, sends shudder down
the spine to observers that Central Asia is scheduled
to be another Middle-East or West Asia of the Future.
Central Asias re-emergence into the world brought
global conflicts as well. The regions enormous oil
and gas reserves, which remained largely untapped
because Moscow preferred to exploit the resources
of Russian Siberia, now became a battleground for
the competing interests of Russia, the United States,
and neighbouring countries Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and
China. In what analysts quickly came to call the new
Great Game (after the nineteenth-century rivalry
between the empires of tsarist Russia and Great
Britain for control of Asia), Russia, China and the
United States struggled to establish pipelines that
would give them both access to natural resources
and influence over the people of Central Asia.18
Terrorism in Central Asia
Terrorism in Central Asia is largely a cross-border
phenomenon. The source of most terrorist and
terrorist organizations that are active in Central Asia
has thus far been Afghanistan owing to the strong
presence of Taliban and the Ferghana Valley due to
the Tajik Civil War. However, as discussed above
the demographic structure of Central Asian countries;
the growing ISIS activities in near West of Central
Asia; presence of huge natural resources of oil and
gas; big power rivalries over oil and gas; Russias
reassertion towards determining the world order of
Changing Geo-politics of Central Asia: Its Susceptibility to Terrorism
its choice; political instability and ethnic divide within
the region are some of the major facts with potentials
to transform the region into a terrorist-ridden region
if the big power is not brought to a compromise, and
trade and commerce of natural resources is not
allowed the legal way. Therefore, a peaceful use of
natural resources with judicious share among the big
powers and other players alone can keep the region
stable and peaceful. A peaceful Central Asia shall
have prosperity and liberty for its people given its
natural resources.
One of the greatest threats to Tajikistans
stabilityand Central Asiasis the Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Formed in 1998 by
extremists who were dissatisfied with the moderation
of the Islamic Renaissance Party and determined to
topple the government of Central Asian strongman
Islam Karimov (President of Uzbekistan), the IMU
launched guerrilla attacks against the regimes from
bases in Tajikistan and Afghanistan in 1999, 2000,
and 2001. Under the military leadership of the
charismatic JumaNamangani, the IMU has extended
its jihad to the whole of Central Asia.19 IUM is a
militant Islamist group formed by TahirYuldashev, and
former Soviet paratrooper JumaNamanganiboth of
whom are ethnic Uzbeks from the Fergana Valley.
Its original objective was to overthrow Karimov and
establish an Islamic State under Sharia; however, in
subsequent years, it reinvented itself as an ally of al-
Qaeda and the Taliban.20 In mid-2015 its leadership
publicly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and announced that the
IMU should be considered as part of
ISIL.21Moreover, as alleged by US it is receiving its
fund from al-Qaeda and ISIS22 and is also involved
into illegal drug-trafficking to raise its fund. IMU first
commenced its activities out of the bases in Tajikistan
and Taliban-controlled areas of northern Afghanistan.
It is from there that they launched a series of attacks
into southern Kyrgyzstan in 1999 and 2000. The IMU
then suffered heavy casualties in 2001-2002 during
the American-led invasion of Afghanistan. Namangani
was killed, while Yuldeshev and many of the IMUs
remaining fighters escaped with remnants of the
Taliban to Waziristan, in the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Since then, the IMU has
focussed on fighting Pakistani forces in the Tribal
57
Areas, and NATO and Afghan forces in northern
Afghanistan.23
The membership profile of IMU is also a
cause of concern in view of its growing incidence of
activities in Central Asia. It was originally an ethnic
Uzbek movement and its recruitment base later
expanded to include Central AsiansAfghans, Tajiks,
Uyghurs, and Turkmens, and other nationalities such
as Arabs, Chechens and Westerners.24 A number of
the IMUs senior leaders and ideologues have been
non-Uzbeks, including its Kyrgyz former military
commander, Abbas Mansur, and its Mufti (religious
authority), Abu Zar al-Burmi, a Pakistani national of
Burmese Rohingya descent.25 In 2011, out of the 87
martyrs that the IMU listed on its website, only four
were Uzbeks from Uzbekistan, while 64 were from
Afghanistan, 10 from Tajikistan, Six from Kyrgyzstan,
and one each from Tatarstan, Germany and
Pakistan.26
A. Elizabeth Jones, the US Assistant
Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, testified
on the threat of terrorism in Central Asia before the
US House of Representatives subcommittee on the
Middle East and Central Asia, arguing that the
greatest threats were the IMU, and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir.
Jones said that despite the death of Namangani, the
IMU is still active in the regionparticularly in
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan
and it represents a serious threat to the region and
therefore to US interests.27
Terrorism and terroristic activities have
already knocked the doors of Central Asia. Therefore,
given the emerging geopolitics within the region are
a dangerous sign for the future. Big power rivalries
often contribute to political instability within the
country thereby making it vulnerable to non-state
actors like insurgents and terrorists as they get hold
of natural resources in an illegal way and resort to
illegal sale of the same. States also resort to
appeasement of such illegal non-state actors as it
makes them available the natural resources of the
region at a cheaper price at a massive cost of human
rights violations. States that ought to contribute
towards making of the fellow-states; in fact ends up
contributing towards un-making of the same for sheer
vested interests.
58 World Focus February 2016
Conclusion
Cold War was a war by other means for containment
of communism. Post-Cold War era is about
International War on Terrorism for containment of
terrorism which has been determined by the event of
9/11. The result has been nothing less than a total re-
designing of the world politics, with the US
government almost assuming the right to intervene
whenever it wants and wherever it wants from Iraq
to Iran to Afghanistan without defining any
geographical limits, and is gradually making inroads
into Central Asia. Rooting out terrorism from all over
the world has now replaced older themes in the US
foreign policy lexicon; from creating collective
security, to containing communism. With the collapse
of communism, the US moved on to become sole
superpower and could sustain the attack on its soil
because of its global geopolitical centrality and support
for governments especially Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Earlier the geopolitical imaginations were limited to
balancing and rebalancing power within the existing
world order. Oil and gas have emerged as one of the
determining factor for changing nature of geopolitical
imagination. A mix of oil plus gas determines the
evolution of geopolitics within a region. Nation-states
use and misuse terrorist groups and their organization
to design and redesign the geopolitical context of a
region which would suit their interests. Consequently,
there arises a close relation between geopolitics and
terrorism. Given the abundance of natural resources,
and demographic contexts, enhances the vulnerabilities
of Central Asia. There are strong probabilities that
the New Great Game being played by the big powers
will destabilize the political order; consequently
strengthening the terrorist groups already at helm of
affairs within the region for they may be used by big
powers for cross-purposes.
String forces like China and Russia are
starting a close relation for their mutual benefit with
the Balkan countries. China takes care to simplify
the economic side of things. If the economic side and
the strategic problems are solved, then the question
of terrorism could be manageable. An anti-terrorist
alliance with the Eurasian countries together with
economic cooperation could target the real centres
of terrorism. If Russia has a crisis, it is not good for
Europe. Sanctions must stop now as Russia does not
want to annex eastern Ukraine. What Russia wants

is to remain influential in the Central Asian region.
Russia is against Ukraine falling to the NATO Camp
as it would lead to a domino effect in Central Asia.
Therefore, the US and the West must understand the
aspirations of Russia as well as China in the region.
On the other hand, Russia and China need to
understand the aspirations of US and the West.
Accordingly, they must converge and resolve the
sharing of oil and gas of the region in an ambiance of
bonhomie and cooperation rather than conflict.
Conflict shall neither serve the purpose of East nor
even of the west, but obviously it may serve the
purpose of terrorist organizations and all at the cost
of severe human rights violations of the common and
innocent citizens of the Central Asian region. Hence,
oil, gas, geopolitics and terrorism create rigmarole.
Footnotes
1 19
Catherine Putz, How Putin Plans to Fight Terrorism in
Central Asia, The Diplomat, October 20, 2015,
www.thediplomat.com The October 16, 2015 meeting
brought together the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
to discuss a bevy of agreements and other procedural
matters within the loose grouping of former Soviet states.
2 22
Ibid., no.1.
3
Ibid., no.1.
4
As quoted from Registans Noah Tucker report
commissioned by USAID in Ibid., no.1.
5 23
Ahmad Rashid, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in
Central Asia, (Hyderabad: Orient Longman, 2002), p.4.
6 24
Ibid., no.5, p.5.
7
Ibid., no.5, p.26.
8 25
Ibid., no.5, p.26.
9 26
Chapter 1, Religious Affiliation, The Worlds Muslims:
Unity and Diversity, Pew Research Centre
s Religion and Public Life Project, August 9, 2012.
10
The results of the national population Census in 2009,
Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan,
November 12, 2010.
11
Pew Forum on Religious and Public Life, Chapter 1,
Religious Affiliation.
12
CIA World Factbook.
13
Mark N Katz, The Geopolitical Context of the War on
Terror: War on Terror in Perspective Middle East Policy
Council, 2015, Retrieved on December 14, 2015.
14
Ibid., no.1.
15
Ibid., no.1.
16
Erich Reiter &Hazdra Peter, The Impact of Asian Powers
on Global Developments, Springer 2004.
17
For an analysis of Mackinders approach from the
perspective of Critical Geopolitics look: Mehmet
AkifOkur, Classical Texts of the Geopolitics and the
Heart of Eurasia, Journal of Turkish World Studies, XIV/
2, p.76-80.
18
Ibid., no.5, p.7.
Ibid., no.5, p.9.
20
Pakistans fanatical Uzbek Militants, BBC News,
October 7, 2014.
21
IMU Declares It is Now Part of The Islamic State,
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 6, 2015. See also
IMU Pledges Allegiance to Islamic State, EurasiaNet,
August 01, 2015.
DEA Congressional Testimony, Narco-terrorism:
International Drug Trafficking and TerrorismA
Dangerous Mix, August 14, 2012. Also see on
www.eurasiacritic.com
Country Reports on Terrorism 2011, United States
Department of States, July 31, 2012.
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: Down but not
Out, Foreign Policy, November 20, 2012.
Ibid., no.24.
Jacob Zenn, On the Eve of 2014: Islamism in Central
Asia, Hudson Institute, June 24, 2013.
27
Jeffrey Donovan, US: Diplomat Sees Growing Terrorism
Challenge in Central Asia, Radio Free Europe, October
30, 2003.

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Changing Geo-politics of Central Asia: Its Susceptibility to Terrorism 59
 Understanding International Terrorism:
Geopolitics and Beyond
Terrorism and climate change have been
viewed as the two major global challenges of 21st
century. Both have the potential to threaten the peace
and development of global community. Experts treat
them as unconventional threats to human security,
because both defy conventional understanding of
threats and their solutions. The phenomenon of
international terrorism invited global attention and
concern mainly since the 9/11 incident in the US by
the Afghan based terrorist group Al Qaeda. There
has been more than eight time increase in the annual
terrorist activities between 2001 and 2014. According
to the figures compiled by the Global Terrorism
Database, the terrorist activities increase from nearly
2000 in 2001 to nearly 17000 in 2014(GTD: 2015).
The 9/11 prompted the US to launch the global war
against terrorism. Ever since then, terrorism has
become a part of discourse agenda of various regional
and global fora. The increasing threat of terrorism
has encouraged states to devise bilateral and
multilateral collaborative mechanisms and
instruments. The rise of Islamic State in 2014 in the
heart of the Middle East and its rapacious expansion
in coming months exposes the inadequacy of global
efforts to fight international terrorism. Even the end
of IS may not be the end of international terrorism
because its roots are deep, seeds are dispersed and
regional soil of Middle East and other regions of the
globe are conducive to its growth and survival. This
requires a deeper understanding of terrorism in
general and as a phenomenon specific to certain
regions.
The problems encountered in finding an
acceptable definition of the term terrorism are
directly proportional to the difficulties inherent in its
management. The lack of consensus among the UN
member states over the definition of terrorism has
become a major obstacle in the adoption of the
Comprehensive Convention on International
Terrorism, which is pending before the UN General
Assembly since 1996. The crux of the issue is as to
60 World Focus February 2016
Dr. Arunoday Bajpai
how to distinguish the purpose of terrorist violence
with similar violence involved in the context of national
liberation movements of self-determination (Diaz-
Paniagua: 2008). The definition proposed in this
Convention notes that any unlawful and intentional
act causing serious damage to human life or private
property with the intention of intimidating people or
compelling any government or international
organization to do or abstain from doing any act, may
be termed as an act of terrorism. The lack of an
acceptable and binding definition has undermined the
coordinated and concerted efforts of the international
community to fight international terrorism (UNGA:
2002). In the absence of a comprehensive convention,
the UN has adopted a sectoral approach to deal with
this problem. Accordingly, UNGA has adopted 11
conventions since 1963 dealing with various specific
aspects of terrorism like financing of terrorism or
nuclear terrorism and so on. However, member states
have formulated definition of terrorism under national
laws to deal with problem. The Chapter 113 B of the
US Code 18 defines international terrorism with
three characteristics: Violent acts dangerous to human
life and violate state law; influence the policy or
operation of the government by mass destruction;
assassination or kidnapping; and transcend national
boundaries in terms of means or targeted people or
place of operation (FBI: 2015). This is working
definition used by the US authorities to deal with acts
of terrorism. The Terrorist and Disruptive Activities
(Prevention) Act, 1985 (now lapsed) defines terrorist
activities. In essence, it includes all those dangerous
activities, which are carried out with lethal means
with the intention of intimidating government or striking
terror in the minds of people.
The characteristics of terrorism make it as a
unique threat in our times. The phenomenon of
terrorism is unpredictable and secretive in its
operations; invisible and dispersed in its locations; and
highly adaptive in its behaviour with respect to
changing conditions. Creating unpredictable terror or
fear in the minds of people or a target group is the
essence of terrorism. The uncertainty and
unpredictability about the shape, nature or timing of
terror is so much consistent that sometimes it defies
human imagination. Terrorism is a hydra-headed
phenomenon, with social, cultural, religious, political
and economic facets. Sometimes it is Al Qaeda and
Taliban but other timers it may take the form of Boko
Haram or Islamic State or others. However, the
essence remains the same: generating terror by
senseless destruction of lives and social resources in
unpredictable manner. Unpredictability of terrorism
is equally matched by its adaptive capacity to the
changing political, economic and technological
conditions. It has shown the potential to successfully
use the modern means of information technology and
modern weapons of mass destruction to carry out its
operations. Its ingenuity to search and mobilize human,
technological and technological resources, sometimes,
outpaces the advanced government agencies. Thus
we have new breeds of terrorism like nuclear
terrorism, narco-terrorism, cyber terrorism and many
more yet to come. Interaction between states and
terrorism has also been problematic. It displays three
patterns: outright hostility between the two in the
states where rule of law is well entrenched;
infiltration by terrorist network into the state structures
in the weak states like Pakistan, Afghanistan or Sudan
to get support and legitimacy; and the use of terrorist
network by the states authorities against their
adversaries both within and across border. The second
and third patterns have the tendency to transform
into a symbiotic relation between the state structures
and terrorist network, giving rise to what is known as
state-sponsored terrorism. The state sponsored
terrorism may be a strategy of the weak states to
inflict more damage to its opponents with low cost,
fluid responsibility and least adverse consequences.
While all forms of modern international
terrorism is adaptive to modern means and resources,
its strategic goals broadly fall into two categories:
First, to realize a world view, rational or irrational, to
which a terrorist group is identified with. In this case,
the terrorist group is aligned against the established
state order and displays relatively independent
existence. The Islamic State and Al Qaeda are the
examples of this breed of terrorism. Second, to act
as tool of a state to cause harm and damage to host
Understanding International Terrorism: Geopolitics and Beyond
states opponents; this is a feature of state sponsored
terrorism. This breed of terrorism is relatively
dependent on the support of host state. But in either
case, terrorism is a strategy of the weak to fight a
strong adversary with minimum cost and low reverse
damage. In view of these characteristics of terrorism,
the states and society are left with no option than to
invent out of the toolbox solutions to manage this
menace.
Geopolitics of Terrorism
The origin, growth, development and spread of
terrorism have invited the attention of scholars. Many
social, religious, political and economic explanations
have been formulated to analyze its growth and
development. Basically, there are two broad
approaches to origin, growth and location of terrorism.
First is the socio-political approach, which views it as
a result of certain social, political and economic
conditions, found in any part of the globe. Second is
the geopolitical approach, which views terrorism as
a tendency, endemic to certain geographical regions
of the world. The geopolitical explanation, prima facie,
appears plausible because the contemporary phase
of international terrorism is originated and sustained
in a geographical region extending from the western
borders of Russia to the eastern borders of Europe.
In other words, the central Asia, Middle East and
North Africa constitute the heartland of
contemporary terrorism. Today, most experts believe
that certain parts of the Middle East, Pakistan and
Afghanistan are turning out to be the main power
centers for terrorism. Decades of lawlessness and
corruption have seen Islamic terrorist groups fill the
power vacuum in this region and continue to turn out
an alarming number of religiously motivated terrorists
(Terrorism Research: 2015).
Geopolitics may be defined as a branch of
geography that promises to explain the relationship
between geographical realities and international
affairs (Payne: 2004). As a systematic study, the
modern geopolitics originated in late 19th century in
Europe. German geographer, Friedrich Ratzel in 1897
coined the phrase anthrogeographical, which
describes the interrelationship between anthropology,
geography and politics. Rudolf Kjellen, a Swedish
scholar was the first to use the term geopolitics in
1900 and is regarded as the father of geopolitics.
61
Alfred Thayer Mahan, a professor of US Naval
Academy, studied the attributes of former great
powers like Portugal, Spain and England in late 1890s
and came to the conclusion that maritime commerce
was essential for the prosperity of the great power.
Accordingly, he stated that the control of seas was
the essential ingredient of a great power. It was British
scholar Sir Halford Mackinder who propounded the
much popular theory of Eurasian Heartland in 1919.
For him, Eurasia and Africa constituted the World
Island. He postulated that the power which
commands the World Island, will command the world.
And the power which commands the Eurasian
heartland will command the World Island. The
science of geopolitics was further expanded in 20th
century with the contribution made by German
scholar Houshofer, and US scholars like Nicholas
Spykman, Saul Cohen, Ray Cline Immanuel
Wallerstein and others.
In the wake of end of Cold War and
intensification of globalization, the international
relations as well as geopolitics witnessed shift in
orientation. In place of rivalry for dominance among
great power, the challenge to the US supremacy
became the subject matter of speculation. Initially,
the US policy makers were complacent about the
future of global peace as they enjoyed unipolar
moment amidst the end of history and final victory
of western values and traditions. This sense of victory
and related complacency was encapsulated into Bush
Administrations idea of building a new world order
in which states will embrace democracy, human rights
and liberal democracy and would not use force to
settle their disputes. However, this unipolar moment
was short lived as terrorism posed a new security
threat to US global interests. The resurgent Al Qaeda
terrorists attacked US Soldiers in Saudi Arabia in 1995
and 1996 and launched a major attack at the US
embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998, killing 190
people. The US defence strategy was still attuned to
face a threat from a super power (USSR), but was
ad odds to deal with the new threat in the form of
rising terrorism. The 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001
convinced the US and all other major powers that
the terrorism has emerged as a major global challenge
of 21st century. A new geopolitical theory was
articulated by American scholar Thomas PM Barnett
of Naval War College to take into account the origin
62 World Focus February 2016
and growth of violence including terrorism in the age
of post-cold war globalized world. For Barnett, the
spread of globalization and connectivity with it are
the key to understand contemporary sources of
violence. He classifies different countries and regions
of the world into three categories: the core, the gap
and the seam states on the basis of penetration of
globalization process. The core states are fully
globalized: the states of North America, Europe, as
well as Australia, Japan and other developed states
and emerging economies like China and India. The
gap states are those which are least connected with
globalization process: states of Middle East, Africa
as well as Central Asia. The seam states are those
states which are passing through the transitional phase
on the way to integration with globalization. Barnett
suggests that the gap states and regions are the
potential source of violence and terrorism in future.
This accounts for the rising contemporary Islamic
terrorism in the Middle East and other similar region.
The strategy to deal with violence lies in shrinking
the space occupied by the gap states by strengthening
the forces and networks of globalization (Payne: 2004).
Beyond Geopolitics
The geopolitical approach prompts us to focus on
certain regions and spaces for understanding the origin
of terrorism and finding strategies for its management.
However, this premise needs further interrogation as
the dynamics of the Islamic terrorism is equally
mediated by other factors like religious extremism,
ethnic fault lines, political instability and democratic
deficit, which sustain the rise and growth of terrorism
in this landscape. The problem with the geopolitical
analysis is that it is static and mono-causal with
overemphasis on regions and places, while
disregarding other dynamic forces at work. Moreover,
this approach was developed and refined to explain
the strategic significance of different regions and the
consequences of dominance over such regions. It is
a grand narrative and not well suited to explain the
phenomenon of terrorism, which is characterized by
many nuisances and complexities. For example, how
we will to explain the radicalization of Muslim youth
in many parts of developed world and their desires to
join Islamic state cadres? Or how we will explain the
use of most modern tools, techniques, and all other
adjuncts of globalization by terrorists to defend and
protect the most obsolete Islamic values and
traditions? Contemporary Islamic brand of terrorism
symbolizes the realization of traditional goals with help
of modern means. In fact, various historical, social,
religious, economic and political factors are at work
to shape the dynamics of contemporary Islamic
terrorism.
Since the World War II, the region of Middle
East has been the play ground of all great powers to
realize their strategic and commercial interests. The
oil resources of the region were the major attraction
for the global powers. The attempts of Arab unity in
1960s and 1970s in the face of Palestinian conflict
were frustrated due to the interference of external
powers. However, the US and European powers did
not interfered in the internal affairs of the regional
states. They controlled the policies of the host
countries to the extent it was required for the
realization of their interests. It was a brazen form of
neo-colonialism. Their civilizing mission stopped at
the borders of their regional partners. The principle
has been that the colour of the cat hardly matters as
long as its catches mouse. As a consequence,
repressive, sectarian, feudal, theological as well as
all forms of non-democratic regimes flourished and
survived as partners of the most democratic and
progressive western regimes. For four decades in
succession, the region missed every opportunity for
democracy and genuine development. Amidst
affluences of Perto-dollars, modern amenities were
arranged without any serious policy intervention to
address the issues of economic inequality,
diversification of economy, unemployment, or
development of human resources.
There has been no internal and external
stimulus for democratic process to strike roots in
regional societies. The modern institutions like rule
of law, independent and rational judiciary and
bureaucracy, citizenship all did not get any chance to
survive and flourish in feudal and theological settings.
The sectarian identities overshadowed rational
citizenship. The repressive, corrupt and sectarian
regimes in many states like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt
etc. brought uneasy political stability, occasionally
disturbed by either external intervention (US
intervention in Iraq and Libya) or by internal forces.
The Arab Spring, at the beginning of this decade was
a democratic aberration, where one set of repressive
Understanding International Terrorism: Geopolitics and Beyond
ruling elites was replaced by another set of more
repressive and sectarian elites. In either case the
political stability was a casualty, which paved the way
for the birth and rebirth of sectarian and radical groups
to occupy the vacant political space. Political
instability, whether caused by external forces (end of
cold war or Western intervention) or emerging from
within (Arab Spring), rather than the lack of
democracy, has been a potential factor contributing
to the rise of ongoing phase of terrorism in Middle
East.
The moot question in understanding Islamic
terrorism is: what is special about the Islamic theology
which makes it a potential force of mobilization and
support for radical extremist groups across the world
amidst talk of melting of cultures in the present era
of globalization? Some scholars distinguish political
Islam from the fundamentalist or the new
fundamentalist Islam, in order to derive the point that
it is the latter breed of Islam, which is opposed to
modernity, and therefore sustains Islamic terrorism,
whereas political Islam is selectively prone to
modernity (Moore: Retrieved 2015). This distinction
appears irrelevant to our discussion as it begs the
question: Why political Islam was not able to adapt to
modernity and strike roots in Islamic society with its
long sway in power? The real answer can be located
in the prevailing political, economic, and strategic
conditions over many decades. It is the cocktail of
democratic deficit, poor human resource development,
lack of any consensual vision for regional security
and development and external support as well as
intervention which facilitated Islamic theology to hold
its sway with traditional framework. This has become
a vicious circle. Any real or imaginary threat to its
hold leads to its radicalization as a survival strategy.
Even the idea of survival is articulated in terms of
protection of cultural and religious values and
resources, rather than in terms of protection of secular
resources. This survival instinct is visible not only on
the face of external threats but also internal threats
within the community. Clash of civilizations is the
natural outcome on the face external threats to
survival. The radicalization and consolidation of Shia-
Sunni fault lines is nothing but a strategy to address
the internal threats to survival. This fault line has
complicated all challenges of Middle East and
63
weakened all forces which are useful for addressing
those challenges.
The rise of Islamic State (IS) in the summer
of 2014 from the ashes of Iraqi civil war has brought
in sharp focus all contradictions inherent in the
strategies and positions of all major actors playing in
the murky waters of Mediterranean Sea. Much to
the dismay of developed societies, it has displayed
the ability to radicalize youth all over the world.
Primarily, these youth are led to believe on the basis
of theological justification, unlike as its believed that
its injustice, poverty or an aggrieved person joins
fundamentalist outfits (Ghose: 2015). States are hard
pressed to check this rising tendency. The Islamic
State is a Sunni terrorist group and has rapidly gained
control in the parts of Iraq and Syria to realize its
goal of Islamic Caliphate. It is fighting with Syrias
Assad regime. Both The US and its European allies
and Saudi Arabia have been trying for last four years
to replace Assad regime. However, they now face a
unique predicament. If they fight with IS, it will
strengthen Assad regime and alternatively if they fight
with Assad regime, the IS may become stronger. The
rivalry between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arab for
regional influence and Russian intervention in Syria
in 2015 for protecting her strategic space are the
other factors which influence the dynamics of
terrorism in Middle East. Whatever may be the fate
of Islamic terrorism, none of the major players- the
US, European countries, Russia, Iran and Saudi
Arabia- is going to compromise her strategic interests.
This fact is of vital significance in the management
and control of Islamic terrorism.
The Way Out
If we review the responses of the international
community including the national and international
legal instruments, bilateral and multilateral cooperative
mechanisms, development and mobilization of
appropriate technological, financial and human
resources as well as generating popular awareness,
they may be at best described as adaptive strategies
(in terms of the vocabulary of climate change
management) to manage the menace of terrorism
with minimum harm to human lives and property. The
comprehensive, coordinated, and concerted efforts
of international community are bogged down due to
lack of consensus on the Comprehensive Convention
64 World Focus February 2016
on International Terrorism, which is pending for
approval before the UNGA for last ten years. But
more than that, the serious shortcoming of the global
fight against international terrorism is the absence of
any mitigation strategy to root out those conditions
which breeds the culture and ideology of terrorism.
It is crystal clear that the prevailing conditions in the
Middle East, Central Asia or North Africa are prone
to sustain the radical and extremist tendencies. Al
Qaeda, Taliban or Islamic States are not the last
generation of terrorism. They will continue to take
rebirth till the tendency to terrorism exists.
Alex P Schmid (2011) has identifies 12 rules
to prevent terrorism and one of the rule is to counter
the ideology of terrorism, which sustains it. But it is
not a simple task, particularly when the Islamic
terrorism has articulated its goals in close association
with Islam. Opposing the ideology of Islamic State is,
many times, taken as opposition to Islam itself. It is
very difficult to convince its followers that Islam,
which literally means peace, is opposed to violence
and terrorism. Moreover direct opposition to an
ideology becomes counterproductive. After the World
War II, the Western powers made their best efforts
to contain the spread of Communism in East Europe,
but hey failed. However, later communism crumbled
down with its own weight and contradictions. Yet
credit goes to the western world for exploiting those
contradictions by consistently pushing ahead with an
alternative vision. This strategy of pushing ahead with
alternative vision of peace and development in the
Middle East may succeed to root out conditions giving
rise to terrorism. In view of their narrow and short
term strategic interests, the major players- the US,
European states, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Saudi
Arabia- may fail to develop consensus for an
alternative vision of regional peace and development.
However, their long term interests may encourage
them to do otherwise. After all, the political instability
and violence in the Middle East has caused a grave
refugee crisis in Europe and the IS has radicalized
youth across the world. In the present globalized and
interdependent world, peace and development are no
more local or regional issues. The real challenge
before the international community is to make people,
society and state in the Middle East as real
stakeholders in peace, democracy, rule of law,
development and protection of human rights.
Transformation in affiliations is the key to mitigate
terrorism.
Conclusion
The following concluding remarks may be made on
the basis of foregoing analysis of international
terrorism:
1. International terrorism is a major global challenge
of 21st century. The end of Cold War and the process
of globalization appear to have contributed to its rise
and growth. The incident of 9/11 has prompted global
community to wage global war on terrorism.
2. The phenomenon of terrorism is unpredictable and
secretive; invisible and dispersed in its locations; and
highly adaptive with respect to changing conditions.
Creating unpredictable terror or fear in the minds of
people or a target group is the essence of terrorism.
3. The adaptive nature of terrorism has not only
allowed it to use modern technological and other
resources, but has resulted in the growth of its new
forms like nuclear terrorism, narco-terrorism, and
cyber terrorism, state sponsored terrorism. In the last
form, the terrorist groups act as a tool of its host
state.
4. Geopolitical approach to terrorism focuses on the
regional dimensions of terrorism bur it is not adequate
to capture its dynamics, which is mediated by various
social, economic, political and other factors.
5. The modern international terrorism has taken the
form of Islamic terrorism, with successful exploitation
of Islamic theology for its support and survival. It is
nor Islam as such but he prevailing historical, political,
economic factors, which facilitated exploitation of
theology by terrorists as a survival strategy.
6. The strategic interests of the major players and
the existing Shia-Sunni fault lines have complicated
the management of terrorism in Middle East. The
rise of IS in 2014 has exposed contradictions inherent
in the strategy of major players.
7. The efforts of the international community are at
best adaptive in nature to manage the menace of
terrorism. Lack of consensus on comprehensive
convention on international terrorism undermines the
coordinated efforts of global community. There is a
need to go for mitigation of terrorism- eliminating
those conditions which give rise to tendency of
violence and terrorism.
Understanding International Terrorism: Geopolitics and Beyond
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65
 Understanding Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
Dr. Sudhanshu Tripathi
Introduction
had serious repercussions in neighbouring Belgium
With almost sudden spurt of Islamic State of Iraq
too, which shut down for a while. Meanwhile, an entire
and Syria (ISIS) led terror activities particularly in
continent has developed a siege mentality and
Iraq and Syria in the recent past, though the entire
European countries are being compelled to review
West Asia has become a burning cauldron of terror
and change their laissez-faire procedures and security
for the last many decades thereby turning the region
doctrines under the huge pressure of uncontrolled flow
into a virtual war zone, a new dimension in the
of refugees from West Asia and other regions, besides
phenomenon of terrorism is being seen in the world
terrorism. Obviously, terrorism or any kind of
where hapless innocents are being butchered or shot
uncontrolled violence perpetrated upon innocents for
dead in their forehead or back, or being burnt alive in
long in the past had resulted into large scale
a cage, or hanged upside down ultimately for killing
displacement of communities all over the world as
and several hitherto unknown inhuman ways and these
everybody wants safety and protection of ones life
cruelties are being recorded to make viral on internet
and person. But that raises many demographic as
so that entire population upon earth may watch to
well as economic and political issues as huge influx
their utter dismay and disgust. Besides causing
of refugees tends to change the composition of
several adverse indelible impacts upon the normal
existing native population as happened in Indias Pak-
human psyche, the continuing ghastly massacre by
occupied Kashmir (POK) in the state of Jammu and
the ISIS in the region has resulted into an uncontrolled
Kashmir immediately after independence where
mammoth flow of migrants/ refugees from West Asia
thousands of Pakistani tribal population intruded into
into Europe thereby raising the issue of geo-politics.
valley and settled down there and that has
Unlike Al-Qaida, the ISIS has never been a hit-and-
fundamentally changed the demographic character
run jihadist group as its leader Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi
of the valley today, besides affecting its economy and
has had his political ambitions very clear since 2013,
political setup. Earlier, the long course of Second
when he fought for territories in Syria and Iraq and
World War saw the division of Germany into East
steadily expanded its reach, capitalising on the power
and West thereby weakening its position as a powerful
vacuum created in these two countries by the wars
nation. The ideological schism between the Capitalists
led and sponsored by the West and their regional allies.
and Communists emerged after the First World War
This strategy paid off initially. The ISIS now controls
led to formation of United Soviet Socialist Republic
territories as large as Great Britain and comprising
(USSR) as a powerful bloc and strong entity from
some 10 million people. But of late, under counter-
the erstwhile single Russia. Even much earlier, the
attack from different militia groups such the
painful Balkanisation of Europe during 16th century
Peshmerga, Hezbollah and the Kurdistan Workers
brought to close by the famous Peace Treaty of
Party (PKK), the ISIS expansionary project has
Westphalia of 1648 had traumatised the consolidated
come under enormous pressure. In such a horrific
power of Europe and that fear again looms large due
scenario if any one single act could make Europe
to continuing civil wars in Syria and Iraq which has
truly understand the meaning of German philosopher
now metastasised into Lebanon, Jordon, Turkey and
General Carl von Clausewitzs phrase that war is
now into Europe. As a consequence, hundreds of
an act of force to compel the enemy to do our will
thousands of refugees have crossed to seek asylum
(substitute the word terrorism for war), then it was
in Europe and such influx is continuing. The real fear
the November 13 terror attacks in Paris this year. It
is that the combination of pressures had the potential
has left a permanent scar on French ethos and that
to create a situation leading to the disintegration of a
now reverberates across almost entire Europe. It has
united Europe. Thus terrorism or war has its marked
66 World Focus February 2016
impact upon geopolitics of a country or a continent
but geopolitics too has its impact upon terrorism which,
in fact, may aggravate several causes of violence or
terror to disturb peace and harmony in a country. For
example, the geographical factors like rugged terrains,
hillocks and mountains or extremely cold season and
poverty etc. in Afghanistan has made it a breeding
ground of violence and terror or revolution since long
as they had always been the valiant fighters in yester
years and had taken resort to violence even in normal
course.
This paper is concerned with the issue of
terrorism including the ISIS terror, and the geo-politics
in West Asia and also the possible relations between
them affecting each other. The first part is introduction
discussing the problem. The second part details the
challenge of terrorism, including global terrorism,
together as a macabre menace and how that affects
geographical factors. The next one describes the issue
of Geo-politics-as a branch of study which deals with
the relations between geography and politics including
international politics and affairs because of huge influx
of refugees from West Asia may change the
composition of native population and that may also
affect the prevailing nature of political systems in the
region- and its evolution since ancient times. The last
part is conclusion highlighting the need of immediate
end of terrorism for ensuring peace and security in
the region as well as the whole world and also for
stable geo-politics.
Terrorism and Global Terrorism
In fact, Terrorism is an elusive concept. It has
paradoxical consequences. However, it comprises of
terror and ism which may simply translate as the
philosophy of creating terror of fear or destruction
among the people, like fascism or imperialism. The
first category is global terrorism and the second is
domestic and both are same in the wider context.
Terrorism means different things to different people;
terrorism has always been a threat to people since
times immemorial. People are stuck in the middle of
a fight between these extremist groups and the
government, irrespective of whichever country it may
be. Extremism is a precursor of terrorism; it is an
overarching belief system that is used by terrorists to
justify their violent behaviour. In fact, terrorism is a
Understanding Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
nebulous term. The origin of the term is derived from
the Latin word terreri, meaning thereby to tremble
or fear, panic and anxiety. The word terrorism had
its French origin from regime de la terreur prevailing
in France in 1793-94 when the great revolutionary
leader Robespierre was at helms of the affairs, and
40,000 people were guillotined on flimsy charges of
treachery he being the last to be executed by way
of a counter- inquisition by the revolutionary
government. Robespierre, however, glorified terrorism
of the type he unleashed in during French Revolution
in 1789. In his words: Terror is nothing other than
justice, prompt, severe, inflexible; it is, therefore, an
emanation of virtue. During the revolution, Sir
Edmund Burke, the British political philosopher, wrote
that thousands of these hell-bound called terrorists
were creating havoc and panic in the country. He
demonised the term terrorism for its innate brutality.
Since the French Revolution, terrorism was shown
as a useful means for political change by
revolutionaries like Italian Carlo Piscane and thinkers
like Karl Marx. The Russian Populist, followed by
Anarchists and Communists unleashed terrorism
targeted against the Government or a particular class
of people, but not against commoners. The world also
witnessed state sponsored terrorism in Nazi Germany,
Fascist Italy and Stalinist Russia, but there also the
targets were not the whole people. After the Second
World War, nationalist and anti-colonial movements
against western powers adopted, at times, terrorist
means against foreign occupants. The leaders of those
freedom movements never targeted the people of
their homeland. Terrorism has become a widespread
phenomenon in most of the contemporary global
system. It poses challenge not only to the state power
but also the national security and sovereignty.
A macabre global menace
Thus how can one conceptualise terrorism as a theory
which is a macabre global menace today and is a
worst ever threat before humanity since the dawn of
civilisation. Why is it not being contained despite the
best efforts is a particular cause of concern. Instead,
it has acquired a frightening and diabolical dimension
due to quantum jump in the technology of terror in
the post-Kalashnikov and post-RDX era. When few
terrorists can convert a civilian aircraft into a deadly
missile and a gas cooker & a tiffin box as a bomb,
besides human bombs, cycle bombs, car bombs etc.
67
it should not be a surprise that terrorism has become
as much a scourge as AIDS, with hapless humanity
groping in the dark. Again the emerging possibility of
nuclear weapons falling into hands of terrorists along
with chemical, biological and narcotic agents being
used them poses an unimaginable horrible scenario
before us. Although use of violence or terror tactics
has been in vogue since times immemorial for
achieving solutions to contentious problems, whether
national or international, they were practised under
some regulation either of religion, customs,
conventions or traditions or fear of God. As an eminent
scholar, Brian Jenkins argued in the mid 1980s that
simply killing a lot of people has seldom been one
terrorist objectiveterrorists operate on the principle
of the minimum force necessary as long as killing
a few suffices for their purpose. But todays terrorism
has crossed all limits where sanity is no more and
hearts are devoid of conscience. It is not simply about
deaths and loss of properties. It is, in fact, about a
slow erosion of the authority of a state and challenge
to its core ideals. Its rapid global spread threatens
the very foundation of freedom, democracy and
development to an extent that it has become a
substitute of modernism. As terrorism is, perhaps, the
most complex psychological and socio-political
phenomenon having various shades and form with
mutating character, its understanding also becomes
very difficult and complex for theoretical purpose of
investigation and analysis and theory building. The
word terrorism has pejorative implications. Terror, as
a concept, means intimidating but this intimidating
is in great intensity and capable of creating sudden
feeling of extreme fear. Even though terror is a
frequently used term for the actions in question today,
there is no other definition accepted and recognised
by all. Many new definitions of terrorism have been
framed by experts and scholars all over the world so
far, but that has failed to evolve a common approach
resulting into a common concept. This is particularly
so because the person who is declared as a terrorist
by one country is often called a freedom fighter by
another. As the existing genre of writings on terrorism
form a vast literature containing a spectrum of
commentaries focussing on both theoretical and
practical aspects of this issue, unpackaging the
terminology on terrorism and associated forms of
violence becomes difficult for conceptual clarity. The
problem of using them, either by themselves or in an
68 World Focus February 2016
umbrella fashion, is that each term such as
insurgency, terrorism, guerrilla warfare, Islamist
militancy, jihad, radicalism and fundamentalism- has
a specific connotation when applied to a particular
context or situation. In fact, terrorism is an umbrella
term currently in usage, best defined as the use of
violence to create a psychological sense of fear. Within
this framework, terrorism can be defined as an
extremely violentand horrible tactic used by its
perpetrators or insurgentsto terrorise the
populace into accepting its cause as legitimate.
In South Asia and India, in particular,
terrorism has emerged from nascent political dissent.
This has transformed itself into secession and
insurgent terrorism- the primary reason being that
internal administration is unable to deliver while
external help is available for generating money and
weapons to fuel local grievances. In the Middle East
and South Asia etc. it was due to intervention by Super
and major powers for apparent reasons of restoring
democracy and civil society, although actual reasons
were different in the form of oil and natural gas for
running their industries. As a matter of fact, terrorism
is not a new concept as it has been there since time
immemorial either in one form or the other. It has its
presence as early as the 1st century; known to the
Romans as Sicarie- a daggerman- because they
carried an underground campaign for assassination
of Romans. The origin of the modern terrorist was
rooted in the organization of zealots of Judea. Even
though both the zealots and assassins operated in
antiquity, they are still relevant today. By the time
kingdoms and principalities became nations, they had
sufficient means to enforce their authority and
suppress activities such as terrorism. During the late
19 th century, radical political theories and
improvements in weapons technology spurred the
formation of small group revolutionaries who
effectively attacked nation-states. Once upon a time,
it existed for the sake of nation or country where
there was selflessness and the spirit of sacrifice but,
unfortunately, the present form of terrorism is based
upon brute and naked violence towards selfish ends
and is completely devoid of sanity. Another trend in
the late 19 th century was the increasing tide of
nationalism spreading through the world wherein the
nation and state were combined. Nationalism became
a much greater ideological force in the 20th century.
During the early 20th century, the effects of two
world wars inflamed passions and hopes of nationalists
throughout the world and severely damaged the
legitimacy of the international order and governments.
Consequently, nationalism intensified during this period
as excessive nationalism or xenophobia and that had
already spurred much of geo-politics leading to several
marked changes in the world like integration of
divided Germany or disintegration of erstwhile USSR.
Evolving Geo-politics
The geo-politics is a study which deals with relations
between geographical factors like climate, quality of
soil and potable water etc. and politics including
international politics and affairs. These relations were,
perhaps first of all, explored and established for
theoretical purpose in ancient Greece by a great
Greek political philosopher Aristotle. Afterwards,
other political philosophers like Bodin and
Montesquieu, both from France, also found the same
relations between geography and politics. But these
findings were not based upon any scientific
investigations. Writes John T. Payne in his
Geopolitics, Globalization and the Age of
Terrorism(April 29, 2004) that it was Professor
Ratzel who coined the phrase anthrogeographical,
meaning a combination of anthropology, geography
and politics. He believed, like Spencer, that states
have many of the characteristics of living organisms.
He thought a state had to grow and must expand or
die. He also introduced the idea of living
frontiers,that borders were dynamic and subject to
change. Expanding on Ratzels earlier thoughts
Professor Rudolf Kjellen,a Swedish Professor of
geography at Gothenburg University, is usually
regarded as the founder of the science of geopolitics.
He was the first to use the term geo-politics (in
Swedish geopolitik) in his work, Introduction to
Swedish Geography, Gothenburg Press, 1900. An
American Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan was
early associated with the ideas of geopolitics. Admiral
Mahan, a professor at the U.S. Naval Academy,
published the first of many works,(The Influence of
Sea Power Upon History 1660-1783, New York:
Sagamore Press, 1957) on the subject in 1890. Based
on a study of previous world powers, Portugal, Spain
and England, the Admiral concluded that maritime
commerce was essential to the economic prosperity
of a great power. In his view, in order to ensure the
Understanding Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
safety of a nations maritime commerce that nation
had to control the seas. Thus, the development of a
strong navy was as an essential ingredient to a
powerful state as the countrys location. The country
with the most power would be the one whose relative
location was accessible and connected with a long
coastline and good harbours. A nation with naval
supremacy could defeat a country that was militarily
pre-eminent. It was Admiral Mahans ideas that led
the United States to develop a powerful naval fleet,
which was to lead the country into its experiment
with empire in the Spanish-American War of 1898.
But the present is the age of air power and the US is
far ahead from all other countries as a pre-eminent
air power in the world.
Another geopolitical school, says Paynethat
was developing in England under Sir Halford
Mackinder proposed the most widely discussed
concept of geopolitical studies. Mackinder first
outlined his ideas in 1904 and that appeared in his
work Democratic Ideals and Reality, New York:
Norton and Co.1962, and further developed his ideas
in 1919. The core of Mackinders land based power
was the Eurasian Heartland of Russia. Eurasia and
Africa constituted the World Island. In Mackinders
view, the power that could control the Heartland
would become what we now call a superpower.
Mackinder summarized his ideas in three sentences
that would symbolize geopolitics for generations:
Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
Who rules the World-Island commands the World.
(ibid. p.150)
After First-World War, a German geopolitical school
was developing under General and Professor Karl
Haushofer, according to Payne. Professor Haushofer
combined the basic concepts of Ratzel, Kjellen and
Mackinder in forming the German geo-political school.
From Ratzel came the idea of Lebensraum or space,
from Kjellen came the term Autarky or national self-
sufficiency and from Mackinder came the idea of
the Heartland. As a result of Nazi Germanys
association with geopolitics the whole field of study
fell into disrepute after World War II. In addition to
the guilt by association with the Nazis, geo-politics
also was open to criticism for being too deterministic.
The critics of geo-politics charged that geo-political
theory tended to ascribe a single cause to the success
69
or failure of a country. It did not take into consideration
human choice. During World War II, in the United
States another theory of geopolitics was developing.
Professor Nicholas Spykman felt that Mackinder had
put too much emphasis on the Heartland in his book
The Geography of Peace, New York: Harcourt
Brace, 1944. He believed that both sea and land
power were important. He disagreed with
Mackinders Heartland Theory. He felt that the real
potential of Eurasia was in the inner crescent which
he defined as the area covering Western Europe, the
Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Far
East. This Rimland was important because the region
had access to the sea and to interior regions. His
summary became:
Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia;
Who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.
Professor SpykmansRimland theory eventually
served as one factor justifying the U.S. policy of
containment of the Soviet Union and the Peoples
Republic of China in order to stop the spread of
communism.
As a result of the great advances made in
the field of aviation during second-World War II, A.
P. de Seversky developed a geopolitical theory which
incorporated aviationin his work Air Power: Key to
Survival, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1950.
Seversky felt that the development of air power made
land battles a thing of the past. He concluded that
whoever controlled the skies would be the world
power. When Seversky published his ideas, the U.S.
and the U.S.S.R. were the two most important air
powers. In discussing his theory he used an
azimuthally equidistant map projection centred on the
North Pole to show the air dominance of the two
superpowers - U.S. and U.S.S.R. On this map he
outlined an area of intersection, which he called the
area of decision. In his theory whoever controlled
this area of decision would become the dominant
world power. During the 1960s, Dr Saul Cohen, a
Professor of Geography at Boston University and
visiting Professor at the Naval War College outlined
a new geopolitical theory which looked beyond the
nation-state and viewed the world in terms of spatial
patterns not containable within national boundaries.
His ideas evolved in his Geography and Politics in
a World Divided. Cohen divided the world into
geostrategic regions. The two main regions are the
70 World Focus February 2016
Maritime Realm, which is dependent on trade, and in
the Eurasian Continental Realm, which is interior in
direction. He gave the most powerful states within a
Realm the title of first-order states. First-order states
in Cohens maritime realm were Japan, U.S. and the
European Community while those in the continental
realm were China and the former Soviet Union. He
described those states which separated the realms
as shatter-belt states. Cohens model also contained
independent states such as Pakistan, India, Thailand,
and Vietnam. Gateway states were those lying
between realms and regions which acted as linkages.
The model also described asymmetrical states as
those within a region that behaved differently than
the others like Israel and North Korea located in the
shatter-belt.
In the 1970s, two significant refinements of
geo-political theory were produced details Payne. The
first of these was the World System developed by
Dr. Immanuel Wallerstein at State University of New
York in his book The Modern World System, New
York: Academic Press, 1974. Professor Wallerstein
developed his model over the period 1974-89.
Professor Wallerstein described two types of world
systems: First, a world empire system in which there
is a single political system over most of the area and
second, a world economy system where a single
political system does not exist. Wallerstein believed
that the world economy system developed in Europe
during the 16th century contained three geographic
areas. Core states were advanced areas of the world
economy. These core states had strong state
structures, a national culture and an integrated people.
Core states were economic powers connected by
trade and technology and were exploiters of the
periphery. Peripheral areas were weak states. They
were either colonial states or states with a low degree
of autonomy. Wallerstein also outlined a third region,
which was comprised of semi-peripheral areas and
acted as a buffer between the core and the periphery.
Wallersteins model contains several shortcomings.
First, his world system reflects determinism. He
believed that the world system had been fully
developed by the 1950s, and no new country would
be able to enter the system and be able to successfully
compete. He also believed that those countries in the
periphery would probably never be able to catch up
economically to the core countries. In spite of its
shortcomings Wallersteins theory is important for its
introduction of linkage between geography, politics
and economics. There is also some agreement with
Cohens earlier model of geo-strategic realms.The
second significant development in the 1970s came
from Dr. Ray Clines book World Power Assessment:
A Calculus of Strategic Drift, Washington,D.C.
Professor Clines study was undertaken in the wake
of Vietnam and the Arab oil shock. It was a period
when the U.S. finds itself in a state of markedly
diminished influence and strategic confusion (ibid.
p3). Clines model was an attempt to quantify the
overall power of 50 nations of the world comprising
90 per-cent of the world population at the time. The
variables measured for each nation were: population,
territory, economic capability, military capability,
strategic purpose and the will to pursue national
strategy. Clines conclusion was in order to contain
the totalitarian threat the U.S. needed to form a
limited system of core alliances patterned after the
Athenian League. He then proceeded to outline the
makeup of this new Oceans Alliance based on a
calculation of perceived power. If it could have been
attained the Oceans Alliance would have contained
26 nations possessing 70 per-cent of the perceived
power at the time, and thus, would have successfully
contained the foe.
According to Payne, the development of geo-
political theories did not come to a halt in the 1970s
with the ideas of Professor Cline, but rather the
development was radically changed by the growth of
something called globalization and liberalization after
the end of the cold war. Unfortunately, the uneven
effects of globalisation further widened the gap
between the developed and developing nations and,
in fact, where fruits of globalisation are less or absent,
plagued by politically repressive regimes, widespread
poverty and disease, routine mass murder and most
important - the chronic conflicts-all these incubate
the next generation of global terrorists and that
adversely impacts the geo-politics.
Conclusion
Thus the present phase of continuing terrorism,
particularly by the ISIS, has already caused the large
scale migrations from West Asia into Europe, besides
other places. The ISIS itself has covered a large area
of territory in its bid to establish a powerful Islamic
Understanding Terrorism and Geopolitics in West Asia
state having hidden but ultimate agenda of forming a
global caliphate with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as
supreme Caliph, thereby gravely disturbing the
prevailing configuration of the region as well as the
nature of politics and international relations therein
which will also cause to propel a fresh wave of terror
across the world. And that will adversely impact the
on-going course of democratisation and liberalisation
of global politics and affairs in the present age of
globalisation. Further, though the geography of the
region is not going to change but political geography
will be considerably changed and that will seriously
impact the regional balance of power in West Asia,
encouraging various terror and other religious
fundamentalist groups of all shades and forms to run
after and capture political power in any way possible.
What will then be the form of consequent geo-politics
affecting the region and also the world? Because
mounting terrorism and counter terror operations will
result into excessive use of fire weapons, if not
biological and nuclear weapons, polluting the
environment and gravely affecting the geographical
parameters like purity of air, water, soil and rising
temperatures of the region, besides endangering
human health and their settlements. As the entire
region is oil and gas rich-for energy purposes-and as
the dependence of many of even highly industrialised
and advanced countries on such energy is not going
to lessen or subside in near future, the pre-eminence
of the region will remain more or less same for their
said purpose of energy security and the region will
remain a prominent focus of attention and resultant
battle-field for all powers of the world, as it continues
to be since decades. As a matter of fact, the on-
going wave of terrorism and religious fundamentalism
presents many unique challenges before humanity.
The absence of a bi-polar world combined with
increasing proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction has given individual terrorists enormous
ability to wreak havoc on an unprecedented scale.
The phenomenon of globalization has increasingly
tightened the connectivity of nations in the developed
regions of the world while at the same time widening
the gulf between the developed and the developing
nations. This division between the two must be
narrowed if the war on terror is to be won forever
and the geo-politics is to remain stable for ensuring a
permanent peace and security of West Asia and also
that of the whole world.
71
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 The Rise of Islamic State and Evolving US Strategy
Dr. Monish Tourangbam and Aersh Danish
The Rise of Islamic State
and Evolving US Strategy
It will be an understatement to state that West Asia
is in turmoil and it will be long before the dust settles
down. The emergence of the Islamic State (IS) and
the security threat it portends for the region and
beyond is something that occupies the mindscape
of regional and extra-regional countries with stakes
in West Asia. IS has also been variously referred to
as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL),
the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Islamic
State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). The organization
grew out of Al Qaeda, which gained global notoriety
post the 9/11 incident and had grown to become
one of the most feared terrorist groups in the world.
Utilizing the socio-political chaos in various regions
of the world, Al Qaeda had managed to spread its
tentacles far and wide. Al Qaeda grew on a base of
misconstrued idea of Islam, preaching violence as a
mean to religious salvation. It argued that the west
and the western culture were a threat to the Islamic
identity, thereby calling Muslims to fight creating
the us versus them rhetoric.
IS followed the same radical path and but
broke barriers that Al Qaeda had not experimented
with. It intruded homes through a media blitzkrieg,
and using cyberspace, it created fear in the minds of
its opponents. This was done by unleashing an
unforeseen amount of violence - and most gruesome
at that too. Further, it had won territory in Iraq and
Syria. The speed with which it took over certain
cities of Syria and Iraq came as a surprise to the
international community. The IS propaganda has
found takers across the globe and various lone wolf
attacks have been influenced by them. The
phenomenon of the steep and sudden rise of IS
therefore has set into motion a set of developments
with far reaching implications. Not since the Al
Qaeda, has the world seen a terrorist group able to
wrought such fear and hatred across the spectrum.
The Rise of Islamic State and Evolving US Strategy
In the face of rise of such an enemy, the
United States was forced to take a stand. However,
a nation that was already burdened with the aftermath
of Afghanistan, found it difficult to actively secure its
interest in Iraq and Syria. The 2003 US intervention
of Iraq had drawn severe criticism both inside and
outside the United States. To be precise, America
had become a nation tired of long drawn wars, and
yet it knew that it had to hold the vanguard. The
involvement of multiple players, both allies and
countries inimical to US interests has further
complicated the scenario for US foreign policy
postures towards West Asia. Americas long-held
strategy to balance its interests in West Asia and
maintain regional stability has been severely shaken
with the civil war in Syria, and the rise of an entity
like the IS. A conflict that primarily revolved around
the demands for ouster of the Assad regime evolved
into a more complicated dimension, with shifting
priorities of the countries involved in the quagmire -
that is Iraq and Syria. The rise of the IS and the
diabolical impact it has had on Islamic extremism in
the region and beyond has taken the contours of US
strategy to a different dimension. The rapidly shifting
sands of the politics over the fight against the IS and
the fate of the Assad regime in Syria complicates the
nature and the extent of US involvement. Hence,
before analyzing the debates inside America regarding
its response to the threat of IS, it is imperative to
understand the genesis of the IS (by corollary the
fault lines that US policy opened in West Asia) and
the basis on which the notoriety of the IS and its
attraction to recruits rest.
Genesis of the Islamic State
Ironically, the rise of IS has also been attributed to
the US intervention in Iraq during the Bush
government in 2003. It led to tectonic changes in
West Asian politics. Iraq under President Saddam
Hussein, a Sunni dictator ruling a Shia dominated
country, had professed a relatively tolerant attitude
towards religious and social demarcations. However,
73
the toppling of the Hussein regime by the Americans
damaged the delicate social balance. The placing of
a Shia leadership in Iraq in the form of Nouri al Maliki
was seen as an attempt to empower the Shias, and
threatened the Sunni Arab nations. The Arab leaders
saw in it an opportunity under which Iran would use
the Shia link to increase its influence in the region.
Malikis tenure as the Prime Minister led to a severe
social breakdown in Iraq, some of which were
brought about by his own doing.
First, the Americans, post the intervention,
initiated a policy of de-Baathification (delegitimizing
Saddam Husseins Baath Party) that left many
people without jobs. Under Husseins rule, it was
mandatory for professionals to be a part of the party
to be eligible for perks and promotions. Thus,
delegitimizing the Party wholesale led to rampant
unemployment as any person involved with the
Baath party was removed from their position and
was banned from future employment in the public
sector as per the Coalition Provisional Authority
Order Number 1.1Further, the new government
under Nouri al Maliki was perceived as being
indifferent because it had a pro-Shia tilt and failed to
address the needs of the Sunni population, who were
denied any kind of help from state authorities, including
the security forces and the police. Lack of social
setups resulted in dissatisfaction among the Sunni
population and forced them into creating their groups
to support themselves. This led to vigilantes groups
being created to help maintain law and order.2
The alienation of Sunnis was initially exploited
by Al Qaeda to re-establish in West Asia. Abu Musab
al Zarqawi had formed Tawhid wal Jihad in Iraq in
2002. It became one of the umbrella organizations of
Al Qaeda in 2004 and was renamed as Al-Qaeda in
the Land of the Two Rivers (Al Qaeda in Iraq, or
AQI). Since its inception, AQI was known for the
sheer gore and violence that it unleashed in Iraq. The
brutality was such that even the Al Qaeda leadership
was scared that it would lead to decline in popular
support base. In ways this fear of Al Qaeda did come
true, as the Sunnis horrified and disgusted with the
violence, organized themselves to fight Zarqawi and
his men. This uprising came to be called as the Sahwa
movement or the Anbar Awakening, where the Sunni
militia was actually successful in fighting the AQI.
74 World Focus February 2016
Documents by Wikileaks reveal that an arrangement
was brokered by the US between the Maliki
government and the Sahwa militants that at least 20
percent of these militants would be absorbed into the
Iraqi army. However, Maliki did not stick to his side
of the bargain, probably because he was afraid of
Sunnis getting strong in the armed forces which might
then result in a coup, and him losing power.3 This led
to a disgruntled Sunni population, a situation that was
later exploited by AQI for its benefit.
Meanwhile, another radicalized individual,
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, along with some associates,
had created Jamaat Jaysh Ahl al Sunnah wal Jamaah
(JJASJ) in 2003 to protect the interest of Sunnis, and
this group operated in Samarra, Diyala, and Baghdad.
Baghdadi headed the Sharia Committee in JJASJ.
Baghdadi had also spent time in US custody at Camp
Bucca for ten months in 2004. He was released since
he was not viewed as a major threat by the US. This
was also the time when AQI was going through
certain organizational changes and rechristening,
primarily because AQI leader Zarqawi wanted to
distance himself from the Al Qaeda tag. This was
the result of a strained relationship between Al Qaeda
leadership and Zarqawi. So, AQI changed its name
to Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin (Mujahideen Shura
Council or MSC) in early 2006, and that is when the
JJASJs leadership pledged bayaa (oath of
allegiance) to Zarqawi.4
Later, AQI was again reorganized and
renamed as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) after
Zarqawis death in 2006. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
headed the Sharia Committee of ISI and took over
the reign of ISI when its leader Abu Omar died in
2010. Gradually, ISI still under the control of Al Qaeda
started to act more independently. ISI had direct
influence on the field and hence it could garner
support from the local populace much better unlike
the leaders of Al Qaeda who were issuing orders
from their safe havens in Afghanistan. The defiance
of ISI was reflected in the manner in which it was
taking up feuds with the other affiliates of Al Qaeda
such as the Jabhat al Nusra (the al Nusra Front),
which operated in Syria. Al Qaeda had rooted itself
in Syria and based itself on the popular discontent
that was spread against the Syrian President Bashar
al Assad. The AQI was primarily responsible for
coordinating the activities of Al Qaeda in Iraq while cases, to excommunicate and replace him if he
the al Nusra Front was responsible of the same in persists. Baghdadi seems to be fully aware of this
Syria. However, with its growing strength, the AQI condition and it can be reflected in his speech when
started interfering in Syria as well. On 15 June 2013, he said I have been plagued with this great matter,
Abu Bakr al Baghdadi defied a direct order from plagued with this responsibility, and it is a heavy
Ayman al-Zawahiri (the Al Qaeda leader after Osama responsibility.7 However, the fact that legitimacy is
Bin Ladens death) directing the AQI to stop its fight obtained out of the control of a physical territory
in Syria. This incident is regarded as the point where explains why the IS needs to exist as a geographical
the AQI officially split from the Al Qaeda to develop entity. Now, it not just has territory, but its leader
itself as an independent terrorist group, now called Baghdadi is a learned religious scholar having
the ISIS, ISIL or the IS. obtained a PhD in Quranic Studies from the
University of Baghdad, and most importantly he
Baghdadis Caliphate comes from the Quraysh tribe. These cement his
On 28 June 2014, ISIS declared the captured position as the Caliph and is the primary reason why
territory of Iraq and Syria as Islamic Caliphate large throng of people are moving to the regions
and its Chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the first controlled by the IS to express their support to the
Caliph of Islam and sought allegiance to him. The group.
ISIS was renamed as Islamic State (IS) on this day.
The declaration of Caliphate and renaming itself as Another religious concept that is a recurring
IS seemed to be aimed at widening the support base theme in IS propaganda is that of apocalypse. The
from existing Iraq and Syria to the entire globe. The idea of apocalypse is integral to the plans of the IS.
ISIS declaration seeking allegiance to Baghdadi These include the belief that there will be only 12
challenged the authority of Al-Qaeda. The legitimate Caliphs, and Baghdadi is the eighth. The
declaration was criticized by Al Qaeda, Middle East other set of belief is that the armies of Rome will
countries, Muslim scholars and leaders.5 The mass to meet the armies of Islam in northern Syria;
announcement of the Caliphate is an important and that Islams final showdown with an anti-Messiah
milestone as it conveys not just a political entity but will occur in Jerusalem after a period of renewed
also a path to salvation for Muslims. A Muslim, in Islamic conquest. The ancient texts speak of a battle
order to attain his rightful place after death, is bound and refer to the enemy as Rome. Who or what
to express his oath of allegiance or bayaa to the Rome is, now that the Pope has no army, remains
Caliph. Thus, by declaring the formation of the a matter of debate. But scholars argue that Rome
Caliphate, the IS fulfilled a major Islamic obligation. refers to the Eastern Roman empire, which had its
However, the process of declaring someone as a capital in what is now Istanbul. Hence, Rome
Caliph is not simple. To be the Caliph, one must becomes the Republic of Turkeythe same republic
meet the following conditions outlined in Sunni law: that ended the last self-identified Caliphate, 90 years
Be a Muslim adult man of Quraysh6 descent; ago. Other IS sources suggest that Rome might mean
Exhibit moral probity and physical and any infidel army, which could refer to America as
mental integrity; and well. The IS has attached great importance to the
Have amr, or authority. Syrian city of Dabiq, near Aleppo. It named its
propaganda magazine after the town, and celebrated
This last criterion is the hardest to fulfill as it when it forcefully acquired control over Dabiq. This
requires that the caliph have territory in which he is because of the religious significance attributed to
can enforce the Islamic law. It is the territory that the city of Dabiq in the ancient texts. It is here, the
grants legitimacy to the Caliph, and in theory, all Prophet reportedly said, that the armies of Rome
Muslims are obliged to immigrate to the territory will set up their camp. The armies of Islam will meet
where the Caliph is applying these laws. The Caliph them, and Dabiq will be Romes Waterloo. At Dabiq,
is required to implement the Sharia. Any deviation the IS awaits the arrival of an enemy army, whose
will compel those who have pledged allegiance to defeat will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse.
inform the caliph in private of his error and, in extreme
The Rise of Islamic State and Evolving US Strategy
75
It is believed that after its battle in Dabiq, the Caliphate
will expand and sack Istanbul. Interestingly, there is
a mention of an anti-Messiah, known in Muslim
apocalyptic literature as Dajjal, who will come from
the Khorasan region of eastern Iran and kill a vast
number of the Caliphates fighters, until just 5,000
remain, cornered in Jerusalem. Just as Dajjal would
prepare to finish them off, Jesus the second-most-
revered prophet in Islam would return to Earth,
spear Dajjal, and would lead the Muslims to victory.
Who or what Dajjal or Jesus may refer to in the
modern context would be a matter of great debate
and conspiracy. However the movements of the IS
towards achieving their apocalyptic goals further
throws light at how it plans to use religious beliefs to
gain legitimacy. In a way, one can argue that it is
waiting for fight at Dabiq, and the probable enemies
allude to America, Iran and Turkey. The fact that
these nations are taking steps to militarily counter the
growth of the IS only plays into the IS strategy where
it seeks to defeat these states and hence claim the
ultimate victory for its people. It is a classic example
of good vs. evil story, a narrative which is also
repeated by the west often, where the terrorists are
represented as evil.
Evolving US Strategy against the IS
The killing of British and US citizens put pressure on
their governments to act against the IS. US had tried
to involve West Asian countries in anti IS operations.
The efforts of the US had met with partial success
with formation of a coalition of about 20 countries,
which launched air offensive against IS in September
2014. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
commenced air strikes against IS in September 2014,
which was a half-hearted effort since none of them
were willing to support the ground offensive and put
their soldiers on ground. Many Arab partners of the
US were suspicious of the Shia axis and believed
that IS was fighting for the greater Sunni cause. The
best bet for the US against Islamic State militants
were Kurd Peshmerga fighters in the besieged Syrian
town of Kobani. 8 Kobani, though strategically
insignificant without having major oil or water
resources, was hyped up in the media and made to
be a symbol of prestige between the US and IS. The
oil rich areas of Syria and Iraq, which provided Islamic
State with the revenue, were not attacked by the US.
That the IS cannot be dealt with in the manner in
76 World Focus February 2016
which Al Qaeda was handled had seemed to have
well dawned upon 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Greater emphasis on countering IS propaganda on
social media, and the understanding that IS strength
lies in its rapid and successful recruitment, is perhaps
why President Obama insisted on not taking a knee
jerk action, and has not deployed boots on the ground,
although Special Operation Forces have been sent to
Iraq.
The battle of images - one in which the
brutality of the IS has been pitched against a
determined President - is on. The question that arises
is whether the US strategy to support the ethnically
divided militia forces in Syria, while working with
nations, all of whom (including the US) are looking to
satiate their own national interests will be successful
in fighting a terrorist group, which more than anything
wants to bring the war to the grounds? The IS strategy
soaked in religious and mythological tales, and driven
by a leader who understands the complexities of
modern warfare will not be easy for America to
combat. After the terrorist attacks in Paris and San
Bernardino, California; debates over US strategy
against the IS have been ignited to a different level,
reflected in the campaign trail as well as Obamas
repeated defence of his strategy. The global war on
terrorism that started as a response to the 9/11 attacks
by Al Qaeda took centre-stage in Americas national
security strategy and the fight against Al Qaeda in its
different avatars around the world continues
unabated. However, the rise of IS as a force to reckon
with and the civil war that ensues in Iraq and Syria, is
presenting new threats for regional and global
security.
Although differing viewpoints persist
regarding the nature of threat that the IS poses to
homeland security, there is no doubt that the IS
presents a major dilemma for US foreign policy
contours in West Asia, post its withdrawal from Iraq.
The dangers to security in the United States from
lone-wolf attacks inspired by the IS assume a major
area of concern for the national security apparatus.
Moreover, the issue of immigration regulation,
especially regarding Syrian refugees has produced
polarizing views.
 Donald Trumps proposal to temporarily ban
Muslims from entering the United States as national
security measure has, if nothing else, generated much
heat and attracted widespread criticism, although he
has found takers among his supporters. His views
have been slammed not only in the Democratic camp,
but have not been appreciated by other Republican
presidential contenders either. Ben Carson apparently
likened some of the Syrian refugees to rabid dogs
while expressing fear that some refugees might be
linked to the IS. He called for a vetting of Syrian
refugees and said, We must always balance. We
must balance safety against just being a
humanitarian.9 Jeb Bush also propagated the view
that Christians should be the focus of any assistance
going to refugees in the Middle East. Supporting a
stricter vetting process for those who come to the
United States, Obama said, it is the responsibility
of all Americans of every faith to reject
discrimination. It is our responsibility to reject
religious tests on who we admit into this country. Its
our responsibility to reject proposals that Muslim
Americans should somehow be treated differently.
Because when we travel down that road, we lose.
That kind of divisiveness, that betrayal of our values
plays into the hands of groups like ISIL.10
The dynamics of the region can fool anyone
who tries to predict the course of events, though there
have been reports that the training given to the Iraqi
forces and the coalition airstrikes are slowly but surely
making their significance felt in the field. This is being
seen in the fight for Ramadi, a strategic stronghold
that fell to the IS in May 2015. The new inroads by
the Iraqi forces reported is largely being attributed to
a change of tactic on the field from counter-insurgency
to conventional war, given the nature of IS and their
aim to hold territory. The training provided by the
United States to Iraqi forces post 2003 is undergoing
a change according to Lieutenant General Sean
MacFarland who leads the US-led coalition against
the IS, also referred to as Operation Inherent
Resolve. Ramadi is one R of the triple-pronged 3
Rs strategy that Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter
propounded. The other Rs are Raids, and Raqqa intelligence support. Clintons strategy also includes
the de facto capital of the IS in Syria.11
President Obama seems clear on his intent - that while
intensifying Americas efforts, the US should not take
dramatic steps in the wake of the Paris attacks just
The Rise of Islamic State and Evolving US Strategy
to look tough. Besides, Obama has also hinted that
defeating the IS military and ideologically, and
preventing lone-wolf attacks was going to be a long-
term pursuit. Efforts are also underway from the
Obama administration to press upon Sunni regimes
and American allies like Saudi Arabia in West Asia to
do more in the fight. The Obama administration
desires its Arab allies to help recruit and build up a
Syrian Arab force of ground troops to fight against
the IS.12 Obamas willingness to send up to 50 special
operators in Syria to help organize the Arab and
Kurdish fighters is a major step to up the ante as far
as American involvement in the raging civil war is
concerned.
According to Defense Secretary Carter, the
Pentagon will also expand its Special Operation force
in Iraq, that will over time be able to conduct raids,
free hostages, gather intelligence and capture IS
leaders. Moreover, Obama has already sent 3,500
American troops to Iraq, though mostly to advise and
train Iraqi troops, with Carter saying that the numbers
might increase. The new steps have come in the wake
of criticism, especially from Republican lawmakers
that the administration has not been doing enough to
defeat the IS. Senator John McCain of Arizona, the
Chairman of the Armed Services Committee,
contended that the deployment of more troops was
a belated step forward and called it yet another
reactive and incremental step, adding that, a
comprehensive strategy to defeat ISIL is totally
absent, urgently needed and long overdue. Jeb Bush
argued that a successful strategy requires arming the
Kurdish forces in Iraq directly, something another
Republican aspirant Marco Rubio also assented to,
saying that he would arm the Kurds directly than
routing much of the assistance through the Iraqi
government in Baghdad. Democratic presidential
contender Hillary Clinton has called for a new phase
that includes more allied planes and more strikes
on terrorist enclaves in Syria and Iraq. Calling for an
intensification and acceleration, of Obamas
strategy, she vouched for augmenting air campaigns,
ground efforts in Syria and Iraq, supported by greater
a no-fly zone over northern Syria. Her Democratic
opponent Bernie Sanders vouched for a broad coalition
against the IS, and said, a new and strong coalition
of Western powers, Muslim nations, and countries
77
like Russia must come together in a strongly
coordinated way to combat ISIS, to seal the borders
that fighters are currently flowing across, to share
counter-terrorism intelligence, to turn off the spigot
of terrorist financing, and to end support for exporting
radical ideologies.13
Airstrikes, arms to Kurdish and Arab militias,
building coalitions are some of the major steps that
candidates in the reckoning have called for and these
are all part of the current administrations strategy.
As Obama pointed out during his address to the nation
after attacks at San Bernardino, airstrikes, Special
Forces, and working with local forces who are fighting
to regain control of their own country that is how
well achieve a more sustainable victory. And it wont
require us sending a new generation of Americans
overseas to fight and die for another decade on
foreign soil. Warning against any ethnocentric
approach to the fight against IS that would further
amount to discrediting the contribution of Muslim
Americans and provide recruiting rationale to the
terrorist group, he said, We cannot turn against one
another by letting this fight be defined as a war
between America and Islam. That, too, is what groups
like ISIL want. ISIL does not speak for Islam. They
are thugs and killers, part of a cult of death, and they
account for a tiny fraction of more than a billion
Muslims around the world including millions of
patriotic Muslim Americans who reject their hateful
ideology.14
Conclusion
The rise of Islamic State has been unprecedented in
terms of the threat that it entails for security and
stability in West Asia and across the world. The
evolution of IS, with its invocation of the Caliphate
has created religious connotations that has been absent
in other fearsome global terrorist networks like the
Al Qaeda. The religious provocation orchestrated and
disseminated by IS and the territorial conquest it has
undertaken in Iraq and Syria gives a whole new
paradigm to the way terrorist entities have been
understood in history. The horde of recruitment that
IS has been drawing from beyond the region and the
inspiration it creates for lone-wolf attacks presents a
clear and present danger. The evolution of the IS
juxtaposed with the civil war in Syria to oust President
Assad, the involvement of multiple players in the crisis
78 World Focus February 2016
in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from Iraq
creates new challenges for US foreign policy
contours in West Asia. In addition, foreign wars have
been highly unpopular among the American public
because of the reverses suffered in the Afghanistan
and Iraq.
Simultaneously, the Obama administration also faces
flak for its restraint in involving the United States in
the quicksand of Iraq and Syria. There have been
calls to do more to defeat the IS, although differing
views persist as far as the extent and nature of
American involvement is concerned. The strategy
against the IS is highly dynamic given the rapidly
shifting sands of geopolitics in the region and the
responses of the countries, including American allies,
that have stakes and influence in the region. Given
that the election campaign for the presidential seat is
heating up in America, the candidates are currently
engaged in hyperbolic rhetoric and anti-incumbency
criticism that are normal recipes of the campaign
season. However, in most likelihood, whoever comes
to the White House, will eventually take forward and
tie the threads of what President Obama has already
been doing and aims to do in his remaining days.
END NOTES
1
Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 1 - De-Baathification of Iraqi Society, Coalition
Provisional Authority, 16 May 2003, http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/
20030516_CPAORD_1_De-Ba_athification_of_Iraqi_Society_.pdf, accessed on 18 August 2015
2
Najim Abed Al-Jabouri and Sterling Jensen, The Iraqi and AQI Roles in the Sunni Awakening,
Prism(Institute for NAtional Strategic Studies: Washington DC, 2010), vol.2, no.1, p. 10.
3
Kenneth Katzman,Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security,Congressional Research Service
, accessed via Wikileaks, seehttps://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL31339,accessed on 25 December
2015. Also see PM Maliki: Strengthened Center or Emerging Strongman,Wikileaks,seehttps://
ikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BAGHDAD379_a.html, accessed on25 December 2015.
4
Aaron Y Zelin, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: Islamic States driving force,BBC,31 July 2014,http://
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28560449,accessed on October 14, 2014.
5
ISIS:CreationoftheCaliphate,http://www.trackingterrorism.org/content/ creation-caliphate,accessed
on 9 October 2014. Also see Muslim leaders reject Badhdadis caliphate,Al Jazeera, 7 July 2014,http:/
www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/07/ muslim-leaders-reject-baghdadi-caliphate-
0147744058773906.html, accessed on October 13, 2014.
6
Quraysh is the tribe to which Prophet Muhammad belonged.
7
Thomas Joscelyn, Analysis: Islamic Statescaliph
leads prayers in Mosul,The Long War Journal, 5 July 2014,http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/
2014/07/analysis_islamic_sta.php, accessed on 25 December 2015.
8
Constanze Letsch,Fazel Hawramy and Emma Graham-Harrison,Besieged town of Kobani gets
reinforcements in fight against Isis,The Guardian, 29 October 2014,http://www.theguardian.com/
world/2014/oct/29/kobani-reinforcements-isis-iraq-peshmerga-free-syrian-army, accessed on October
30, 2014.
9
Jeremy Diamond, Donald Trump: Ban All Muslim Travel to U.S.,CNN, 8 December 2015,http://
edition.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/donald-trump-muslim-ban-immigration/, accessed on 22 December
2015. Also see Reena Flores, Ben Carson Compares Syrian Refugees to Rabid Dogs, Calls for More
U.S. Vetting,CBS News,19 November 2015,http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ben-carson-compares-
syrian-refugees-to-rabid-dogs-calls-for-more-u-s-vetting/,accessed on 22 December 2015.
10
Katie Zezima, Cruz:No Meaningful Risk of Christians Committing Terrorism,The Washington
Post,15 November 2015,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/15/cruz-
no-meaningful-risk-of-christians-committing-terrorism/,accessed on 24 December 2015. Also see Barack
Obama, Address to the Nation by the President.
11
Susanna Capelouto and Hamdi Alkhshali,Iraqi forces closing in on ISIS in Ramadi, military official
says,CNN,25 December 2015,http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/23/middleeast/iraq-isis-ramadi/,
accessed on 26 December 2015;Paul Blake,Ramadi assault: How a small change in tactics helped Iraqi
forces,BBC,22December2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34902757, accessed on
26 December 2015. Also see Tim Hume,Will three Rs be new shape of the U.S. fight against
ISIS?,CNN,
28 October 2015,http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/28/middleeast/isis-us-carter-3-rs/, accessed on 26
December 2015.
12
Christi Parsons and David Lauter, Presidential candidates criticize Obamas Islamic State strategy, but
theirs sound similar, Los Angeles Times, 16 November 2015, http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-obama-
lamic-state-g20-20151116-story.html, accessed on 21 December 2015. Also see Michael R. Gordon and
Helene Cooper, Obama Urges Mideast Allies to Do More in Fight Against ISIS, The New York Times, 14
December 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/world/middleeast/defense-chief-heads-to-middle-
ast-as-us-evaluates-isis-strategy.html?_r=0, accessed on 21 December 2015.
13
Helene Cooper, U.S. Special Operations Force in Iraq to Grow, Pentagon Says,The New York Times,
1 December 2015,http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/middleeast/us-increases-special-
perations-forces-fighting-isis-in-iraq.html,accessed on 21 December 2015; Christi Parsons and David
Lauter, Presidential candidates criticize Obamas Islamic State strategy, but theirs sound similar. Also
see
Hannah Fraser Chanpong, Troops in Syria Would be a Mistake even if U.S. Suffers Paris-Like
Attack,CBS
News, 19 November 2015,http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-american-troops-syria-would-be-a-
mistake/, accessed on 22 December 2015 and Bernie Sanders Details ISIS Strategy, Defines Democratic
Socialism,CBS News, 19 November 2015,http://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-details-isis-
strategy-defines-democratic-socialism/,accessed on 22 December 2015.
14
Barack Obama, Address to the Nation by the President.
 Geography, Politics and Terror at Play:
Case of Northeast India
Current conflicts in the international arena
are wars of insurgent action. Insurgencies have
become the building blocks of violent regime change.
Using violence as a means of political discourse,
insurgent and guerilla action has utilized weaknesses
in the state to increase their political demands,
changing the shape of international discourse.
Geographical isolation, systemic failures in the areas
of economic advancement, cultural and ethnic
marginalization, inefficient political bureaucracy and
resource management encourage the environment
breeding insurgent activities in many parts of the world
today. The North Eastern part of India is a typical
example. The present article aims at delineating the
various aspects of the geography-politics-terror nexus
that has plagued the region since the birth of the Indian
Union in 1947.
Geopolitics, Terrorism, Insurgency
The term geopolitics, coined by the Swedish legal
jurist Rudolf Kjelln (18641922), entails three core
elements: a bio-organic notion of the state, a social-
Darwinist view of inter-state relations defined as a
struggle for Lebensraum[living space], and the
concept of imperial rivalries interpreted as power
struggles over territories for the purpose of political
control over space. Geopolitical studies attracted a
corpus of influential writers including Halford
Mackinder, Alfred Mahan and Friedrich Ratzel.
Writing in the latter part of the nineteenth century,
the German writer Friedrich Ratzel (18441904)
expressed some of the dominant trends in classical
geopolitics including racial and environmental
determinism. Distinguishing between settled and
nomadic communities, Ratzel argued that the settled
Aryan races in particular were vulnerable to the
marauding and thus hyper-mobile UralAltaic races.1
As a consequence of this perceived vulnerability, the
Aryan races were the earliest to develop state-like
Geography, Politics and Terror at Play: Case of Northeast India
Dona Ganguly
structures designed to organize defense against other
races. Ratzel contended that contemporary Germany
should strive to secure additional land and resources
so that it was better able to secure the survival of the
nation-state in the face of eastern races and their
traditions of mobile existence. The term Lebensraum
(living space) is particularly associated with the
writings of Ratzel as a consequence of his interest in
the interrelationship between environment, state and
culture. 2 While Ratzels writings were instilled by
the racial and environmental indices, the British writer
Halford Mackinder (18611947) highlighted another
aspect of classical geopolitics- concern for grand
strategy. 3 Mackinder warned that traditional sea
powers such as Britain were under threat from new
land-based powers that might, with the help of new
transport technologies such as the railway, be able to
mobilize their populations and resources in a decisive
manner. Intrigued by the historic significance of
migrant empires such as the Mongols, Mackinder
divined a future possibility based on new great powers
(such as the latter day Soviet Union) using what he
termed the heartland to project power over the
European continent. Vast quantities of coal, oil, gas
and other minerals, transported by railways, would
quite literally empower those who controlled the
heartland. In his famous epithet, Mackinder warned
his readers that who rules East Europe commands
the Heartland. Who rules the Heartland commands
the World-Island. Who rules the World-Island
commands the World 4 . While Mackinder s
Heartland-theory emphasized on the superiority of
the territorial power, Admiral Mahans Aquatological
theory identifies the decisive factor in power politics
in the fleet-based domination of the sea.5 However
the mainstream geopolitical theory came under severe
criticism at the end of the Cold War. The end of
superpower rivalry and the dismantling of the bipolar
world structure which had been the core concerns of
79
the geopolitical thought for over 40 years, gave rise
to what is known as critical geopolitics revolving
around our understanding of spatiality and subjectivity
in world affairs. In terms of spatiality, it shifts the
focus from territorialized understandings of politics
toward the understandings of the complex spatialities
of power.6 In terms of subjectivity, critical geopolitics
broadens the analysis of geopolitics from state actors
located in formal institutions, such as government
ministries, universities or think tanks, to non-state
actors and everyday life. 7Among the various non-
state actors, the terrorist and insurgents/guerrilla
groups and their criminal activities are the principal
cause of concern in international politics today.
The UN General Assembly Resolution
49/60 (adopted on December 9, 1994), titled
Measures to Eliminate International Terrorism,
contains a provision describing terrorism: Criminal acts
intended or calculated to provoke a state of terror in
the general public, a group of persons or particular
persons for political purposes are in any circumstance
unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a
political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic,
religious or any other nature that may be invoked to
justify them.8 UN Security Council Resolution
1566 (2004) defines terrorism as criminal acts,
including against civilians, committed with the intent
to cause death or serious bodily injury, or taking of
hostages, with the purpose to provoke a state of terror
in the general public or in a group of persons or
particular persons, intimidate a population or compel
a government or an international organization to do or
to abstain from doing any act. 9 ONeill defines
insurgency (or internal war) as: a general overarching
concept that refers to a conflict between a
government and an out group or opponent in which
the latter uses both political resources and violence
to change, reformulate, or uphold the legitimacy of
one or more of four key aspects of politics - (1) the
integrity of the borders and composition of the nation
state, (2) the political system, (3) the authorities in
power, and (4) the policies that determine who gets
what in societies 10 Insurgencies thrive in situations
where societal divisions are combined with economic
and political disparities, rising unemployment and
80 World Focus February 2016
underemployment, unequal distribution of wealth,
inadequate distribution of essential goods, elitist control
of the political structure, and corrupt leadership.
Guerilla warfare and insurgencies are often
assumed to be synonymous with terrorism since often
they have similar goals. However, if closely examined
specific differences emerge. A key difference is that
an insurgency is a movement is a political effort with
a specific aim. This sets it apart from both guerilla
warfare and terrorism, as they are both methods
available to pursue the goals of the political
movement.11 Another difference is the intent of the
component activities and operations of insurgencies
versus terrorism. There is nothing inherent in either
insurgency or guerilla warfare that requires the use
of terror. While some of the more successful
insurgencies and guerilla campaigns employed
terrorism and terror tactics, and some developed into
conflicts where terror tactics and terrorism became
predominant, there have been others that effectively
renounced the use of terrorism. 12 The ultimate goal
of an insurgency is to challenge the existing
government for control of all or a portion of its
territory, or force political concessions in sharing
political power. Insurgencies require the active or tacit
support of some portion of the population involved.
External support, recognition or approval from other
countries or political entities can be useful to
insurgents, but is not required. A terror group does
not require and rarely has the active support or even
the sympathy of a large fraction of the population.13
While insurgents will frequently describe themselves
as insurgents or guerillas, terrorists will not refer
to themselves as terrorists but describe themselves
using military or political terminology (freedom
fighters, soldiers, activists). Terrorism relies on
public impact, and is therefore conscious of the
advantage of avoiding the negative connotations of
the term terrorists in identifying themselves.14
Terrorism does not attempt to challenge government
forces directly, but acts to change perceptions as to
the effectiveness or legitimacy of the government
itself. This is done by ensuring the widest possible
knowledge of the acts of terrorist violence among
the target audience. Rarely will terrorists attempt to
control terrain, as it ties them to identifiable locations
and reduces their mobility and security. Terrorists as
a rule avoid direct confrontations with government
forces. A guerilla force may have something to gain
from a clash with a government combat force, such
as proving that they can effectively challenge the
military effectiveness of the government. A terrorist
group has nothing to gain from such a clash.15 This is
not to say that they do not target military or security
forces, but that they will not engage in anything
resembling a fair fight, or even a fight at all.
Terrorists use methods that neutralize the
strengths of conventional forces. Bombings and
mortar attacks on civilian targets where military or
security personnel spend off-duty time, ambushes of
undefended convoys, and assassinations of poorly
protected individuals are common tactics. Insurgency
need not require the targeting of non-combatants,
although many insurgencies expand the accepted legal
definition of combatants to include police and security
personnel in addition to the military. Terrorists do not
discriminate between combatants and non-
combatants, or if they do, they broaden the category
of combatants so as to include all members of a
nation or ethnic group, plus any citizen of any nation
that supports that nation as combatants. Ultimately,
the difference between insurgency and terrorism
comes down to the intent of the actor. While
insurgency movements and guerilla forces can adhere
to international norms regarding the law of war in
achieving their goals, on the other hand, the terrorists
are by definition conducting crimes under both civil
and military legal codes. Terrorists routinely claim
that were they to adhere to any law of war or
accept any constraints on the scope of their violence,
it would place them at a disadvantage vis--vis the
establishment. 17
Northeast Insurgency
Northeast India is located in the north eastern corner
of the Indian Union with international frontiers on
three sides. It lies, geographically between 22 and
29 North latitude, and 89. 46' and 97.5' East longitude
and covers an area of 25,5083 sq.km. The region is
in a strategically vulnerable geographical situation and
hemmed in by countries like China, Myanmar, Bhutan
Geography, Politics and Terror at Play: Case of Northeast India
and Bangladesh from three sides. It is linked with the
rest of the country by a narrow corridor of 22km
wide (Chicken Neck) running through Siliguri, West
Bengal. 18 Politically, the region is divided into eight
units: Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya,
Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Sikkim. However,
the geography, history and traditions, transcending the
political boundaries, have brought the whole region
into a single geo-political entity. Northeast India is
inhabited by races of Mongoloid stock, besides Indo-
Aryan groups. Barring the Khasis and Jaintias who
belong to the Austric linguistic group (now branded
as Monkhmer cultural groups of Burma), almost all
hill tribes belong to the Tibeto-Chinese linguistic family
and Tibeto-Burman sub-family. The non-Aryan
languages, being prominent in this region, shelter more
than 125 major groups each having distinct cultural
traits.19 Peripheral location, geographical isolation, and
the land-locked character of Northeast India,
surrounded by countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar
and China having ambivalent attitude towards India,
has great geo-political significance in the domain of
insurgency. It plays a pivotal role in escalating
extremist activities. The border line and the length
(roughly) between states and other countries are as
follows: Assam-Bhutan 500 km, Arunachal Pradesh-
Burma 525 km, Bangladesh-Assam 200 km, Manipur-
Burma 425 km, Mizoram-Bangladesh 275 km,
Tripura-Bangladesh 625 km, Meghalaya-Bangladesh
400 km. Total border with three neighbouring countries
comes out to be 4825 km.20 The flame of insurgency,
which has jeopardized normal life of the peace loving
tribals and plainsmen of this part of the country, arises
from economic backwardness and political alienation
of the tribal population from the national mainstream.
Essentially their economic backwardness stems from
the unexploited natural resources, inadequate
infrastructural development, rampant corruption and
the strong nexus between the politician-contractor-
insurgent in the region.Conflicts in the region range
from insurgency for secession to insurgency for
autonomy; from sponsored terrorism to ethnic
clashes, to conflicts generated as a result of continuous
inflow of migrants from across the borders as well
as from other States. Conflicts in the region can be
broadly grouped under the following categories.21
81

a. National conflicts: Involving concept of a
distinct homeland as a separate nation and pursuit
of the realization of that goal by its votaries.
b. Ethnic conflicts: Involving assertion of
numerically smaller and less dominant tribal groups
against the political and cultural hold of the dominant
tribal group. In Assam this also takes the form of
tension between local and migrant communities.
c. Sub-regional conflicts: Involving movements
which ask for recognition of sub-regional aspirations
and often come in direct conflict with the State
Governments or even the autonomous Councils.
Besides, criminal enterprise aimed at expanding and
consolidating control over critical economic resources
has, of late, acquired the characteristics of a distinct
species of conflict.
The roots of the insurgency environment in
the North East are embedded in the socio-political,
geo-economic and historical legacies of the region.
During the colonial era, the British rulers kept the
people of this region away from the mainstream by
creating the Crown Colony commonly known as
Coupland Plan with an idea to make it a launch pad
against India, Burma and China. Further, the British
colonial policy of Excluded Area or Partially Excluded
Area, Inner line Regulation etc., restricted the social
and political mobility between the hill and the plains
people. With the passage of time and exposure to
modernity, along with the changes in the life style
and social ethos, political perceptions have changed.
Mutual distrust between the hill people and the plains
developed. The plains people consider the Mizos or
Naga or Khasis as nomadic and uncivilized. These
people, on the other hand, equally look upon the plains
people with distrust and regard them as outsiders
which transpires from their use of such disparaging
terms like Dakhars (Khasi), Vais (Mizo), Mayang
(Manipuri).22 This refractory attitude from either
side has poisoned the friendly relations among
different groups of people, and thereby opened the
gates of hostility. Apart from the hills-valley (read
plains) dichotomy revolving around the geographical
area of residence, these Tibeto-Burman people also
nurture a sharp awareness of their ethnic and cultural
difference from the national mainstream. Given the
82 World Focus February 2016
physiographic constraints, geographical isolation,
peripherialization of the region, deep communication
gap, long years of neglect, indifference of the nation
to the hardships, worries of their compatriots in this
strategic region, unimaginative government policies
and gross ignorance of the tribal ethos have compelled
them to tilt towards making closer affinities in the
Shan and Kachin states of Burma and Bangladeshs
Chittagong Hill Tract.
On the other hand, unabated infiltration of
Bangladesh nationals into Assam and Tripura has
shaken the foundation of Assamese social structure
and created solidarity among the Assamese even
while generating cleavages between the indigenous
Assamese and the indigenous tribals. It has influenced
the educational, social and economic aspiration of
countless Assamese, determined their central political
cognizance (it has) given rise to powerful
assimiliationist and nativist sentiments and backlash
separatist agitation, to massive conflict over
languages, education and employment policy.23 The
disturbances caused by this demographic distortion
in the region have often been overlooked by the state
and the union government. Even the sixth schedule
approach in the form of the district council did not
serve the purpose because the councils did not have
adequate powers. The subsequent accords such as
the Naga Accord (1960), the Shilong Accord (1975),
Assam Accord (1985), Mizoram Accord (1986),
signed between the Indian state and the insurgent
leaders aimed at preservation of the distinct cultural
identity of the tribals and quicker development of the
region but none of these accords has been seriously
implemented. Further with the rapid rise of money
economy, the tribal economy and their antiquated way
of livelihood became archaic in the modern economic
race. Economic hardship due to poor and
underdeveloped agriculture, alarming mass
unemployment problem, rampant corruption, and lack
of educational and medical facilities, exorbitant prices
and shortage of essential commodities in the far-flung
areas of the northeast forced the promising youth to
turn towards extremist activities and create numerous
insurgent outfits in all the states of North East India.
Extremist outfits of various states in the northeast
region have transgressed beyond the state boundary.
There is an understanding among them and they are
encouraged by Bangladesh and Pakistan. All militant
groups have training and logistic planning bases in
Bangladesh managed either by Bangladesh Army
personnel or Pakistan Inter-Service Intelligence
(ISI).24 Till the birth of Bangladesh, batches of Naga
and Mizo insurgents made regular visits to Dacca to
seek financial and military help. Even today,
Bangladesh Army provides all arrangements for
insurgents training in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT),
even after signing of the Ganges water sharing accord.
Taking advantage of geographical surroundings, ethnic
homogeneity, Bangladesh had given shelter and
provides safe sanctuary to many of the militant outfits
like United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA),
Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), National Socialist
Council of Nagaland (NSCN), Meghalaya United
Liberation Army (MULA), National Democratic Front
of Bodoland, Mizo National Front (MNF) etc.25
Similarly few years back an agreement was made
between NSCN President, S.S. Khaplang and
National Front President, John Khaw Kim Thang to
bolster insurgency with the active support of Kachin
Independence Army (KIA) in the Indo-Burma area.
Similar close nexus among the regional militant outfits
has been strengthened. A few years ago NSCN (K),
ULFA and ULLF formed Indo-Burma Revolutionary
Front (IBRF) for joint action against Indian forces,
but a decline in their fortunes limited the effectiveness
of IBRF. The apex-insurgent body underwent a
change in April 1993 when the IBRF got a new name,
the Indo-Burma Liberation Front (IBLF) with Muivah
of NSCN (IM) in the saddle. 26 The strategic
importance of the Indo-Burma border area, favourable
topography for guerrilla warfare, existence of ethnic
affinities across the border and the long experience
of underground movements have made NSCN (I-
M) such a hegemonic power that it has become the
lone rallying point for all insurgent groups operating
in the region. There is evidence of a joint meeting of
Meghalaya United Liberation Army (MULA) People
Liberation Army (PLA), All Tripura Tribal Force
(ATTF), National Socialist Council of Nagaland
INSCN)-Muivah faction and Mizo National Front
(MNF) in Dacca. The MULA, which wants to evict
Geography, Politics and Terror at Play: Case of Northeast India
all non-tribals from Meghalaya, has set up sanctuaries
in Nilphamari Army camp near Mymensing, Jaintiapur
(Sylhet) and Joydebpur (Dacca). The PLA fighting
for an independent Manipur, has bases at
Chhotdhamai, Naya Pattan, Longla, Ram Nagar,
Ambarkhana, Adampur, Sonrupa Tea Estate and
Bhanugach (all in Moulabi bazar, Sylhet district),
ATTF, which is waging war for greater autonomy of
the tribals in Tripura, operates from its camps in Reza,
Rasalong, Myani Reserve Forest, Zopai and
Thangnang in Chittagong Hill Tracts. Muivah-led
faction of NSCN has its sanctuaries in Salopi and
Chacheng in Bandarban of Chittagong Hill Tracts. A
disgruntled faction of MNF led by L. Piangais is trying
to revive insurgency in Mizoram. This faction has
camps in the Aljidam area of Chittagong Hill Tracts.
ULFA, the most dreaded of all the militant outfits has
six camps set up in Mymensing, Jaintiapur, Joydebpur,
Adampur, Bhanugarh and Srimangal. Bodo Security
Forces has bases in Nilpharmari and Gaibandha Army
campus.27 From the intelligence reports, it appears
that a large number of volunteers of Muslim United
Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA) have crossed
over to Bangladesh. It has also been financed by other
Islamic countries for training and subversive activities.
The Islamic Revolutionary Front (IRF), another
Muslim terrorist group which includes Pangla Muslims
of Manipur and Bangladesh settled in North Cachar
and Karimganj district of Assam has the patronage
of Pakistan Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) operating
from bases in Bangladesh.28
Apart from the socio-economic and
geopolitical factors responsible for the rapid influx of
insurgency movements in the region, the regional ruling
elite (politicians)-terrorist nexus is another
predominant factor for the same. The ruling elite seem
to allow the insurgent movements to perpetuate in
order to make themselves indispensable in state politics
as well as to ensure their political security. It may be
recalled that while the possibility of a negotiated
settlement of the ULFA movement became bright in
the early nineties and the stage for such a settlement
was set following several rounds of talks between
the ULFA leadership and the central government, the
ruling elite in Assam headed by Hiteswar Saikia
83
reportedly sabotaged this move.29 Thus, the ruling
elite in Assam, instead of forging a political solution,
coaxed a vertical split within ULFA and followed the
policy of divide and rule in order to secure their own
political fortunes.
Conclusion
In the modern era of nation building, insurgencies,
and the use of guerilla and terrorist tactics, have been
beneficial in reshaping the political and state structure
of the globe since the onset of political governance.
While many regions of the globe have benefitted from
this action, and most still do, tools available to the
insurgents have become a curse to the international
community. Acts of terrorism, while increasing the
propaganda effect of insurgencies and eliciting
increased popular support, have placed many insurgent
groups at odds with the rest of the globe, endangering
the lives of millions of people and international
security. A close examination of the turbulence and
frustrations evident in the northeast would indicate
that the northeastern insurgency has to be tackled
with political prudence. This would be possible only
if the centre and the northeastern states evolve a
two-point agenda to solve the problem. Such an
approach involves both: negotiations with the various
extremist outfits and simultaneously ensuring
adequate socio-economic development of diverse
ethnic groups, political and economic advancements,
reductions in unemployment and underemployment,
land reforms, transparent governance, and
inclusionary conditions for minority political
participation. Without any further delay the
northeastern insurgency has to be solved in order to
prevent the balkanization of the Indias North East
and to integrate the region politically, economically
and socially with the rest of the country.
End Notes
1.Dodds Klaus, Kuus Merje and Sharp Joanne,
Introduction: Geopolitics and its Critics, p.2, https://
www.ashgate.com/pdf/SamplePages/Ashgate-
Research-Companion-to-Critical-Geopolitics-Intro.pdf
(accessed on 25/12/2015)
2.Ibid
3.Ibid.
84 World Focus February 2016
4.Ibid.
5.Teschke Benno, Geopolitics, Historical Materialism,
Volume 14, Number1, 2006, p.329, http://inkrit.de/
neuinkrit/mediadaten/en/en_archivehcdm/geopolitics-
hcdm.pdf (accessed on 25/12/2015)
6.Dodds Klaus, Kuus Merje and Sharp Joanne,
Introduction: Geopolitics and its Critics, p.7, https://
www.ashgate.com/pdf/SamplePages/Ashgate-
Research-Companion-to-Critical-Geopolitics-Intro.pdf
(accessed on 25/12/2015)
7.Ibid.
8.http://www.azdema.gov/museum/famousbattles/pdf/
Terrorism%20Definitions%20072809.pdf
9.http://www.azdema.gov/museum/famousbattles/pdf/
Terrorism%20Definitions%20072809.pdf
10.Young Aaron M and Gray David H, Insurgency,
Guerilla Warfare and Terrorism: Conflict and its
Application for the Future, Global Security Studies,
Fall 2011, Volume 2, Issue 4, p.66
11.http://www.terrorism-research.com/insurgency/
12.Ibid.
13.Ibid.
14.Ibid.
15.Ibid.
16.Ibid.
17.Ibid.
18.Kotwal Dinesh, Instability Parameters in
Northeastern India, www.idsa.com (accessed on 25/
12/2015)
19.Ibid.
20.Ibid.
21.ARC 7 th Report, Chapter 12, http://
w w w. m d o n e r. g o v. i n / s i t e s / d e f a u l t / f i l e s /
ARC_7thReport_Ch12.pdf (accessed on 25/12/2015)
22.Kotwal Dinesh, Instability Parameters in
Northeastern India, www.idsa.com (accessed on 25/
12/2015)
23.Ibid.
24.Ibid.
25.Ibid.
26.Ibid.
27.Ibid.
28.Ibid.
29.Ibid.

On 2nd January 2016, a heavily armed group
attacked the Pathankot Air Force Station, part of the
Western Air Command of the Indian Air Force. Six
attackers and three security forces personnel were
killed in the initial battle. The gun battle and the
subsequent combing operation lasted about 17 hours
on 2 January. The attackers, who were wearing
Indian Army fatigues, were suspected to belong to
Jaish-e-Mohammed, an Islamist militant group
designated a terrorist organization by India, US, UK
and the UN. The attack was described as a terrorist
incident in the Indian and foreign media. A further
three soldiers who were admitted to hospital with
injuries died, raising the death toll to seven soldiers.
On 3 January, fresh gunshots were heard, and another
security officer was killed by an IED explosion. The
PathankotJammu highway was sealed off as soon
as news of the attack broke.1 According to Indian
intelligence officers, the attackers may have entered
India on 31st December 2015 along the banks of the
Beas River which cuts across the Pakistani border.2
The attackers were aiming to destroy the aircraft
and helicopters in the base, according to a call
interception report.3
Gunshots were heard on the morning of
3rdJanuary, 2016, leading to speculation that more
attackers were still in the airbase. A fresh IED
explosionon3rdJanuary injured three National Security
Guard personnel. A National Security Guard officer
who was injured during the blast died in a hospital.
Around noon, it was discovered that two attackers
were still at large in the airbase. Security forces
continued the operation on 4 January with
reinforcements being deployed to the location. A fifth
attacker was confirmed killed later during the day.
The neutralisation of the sixth attacker was reported
at 4.15 PM on5th January. The operation launched
by the Indian Army to neutralise the attackers was
called Operation Dhangu or DhanguSuraksha,
named after the place Dhangu where the base is
located.4The operation continued on 4 January, and
Pathankot Airbase Attack and Indias Fight Against Terrorism
Pathankot Airbase Attack and
Indias Fight Against Terrorism
Dr. Deepak Yadav
a fifth attacker was confirmed killed. The United Jihad
Council claimed responsibility for the attack on 4th
January, 2016.4
The hijacking of a car of a superintendent of
the Punjab Police the previous day was reportedly
linked to the attack. People hijacked his car for
transport. They did not know that it was a police car
since the police lights were off. Media reports
suggested that the attack was an attempt to derail a
fragile peace process meant to stabilize the
deteriorated relations between India and Pakistan, as
several pieces of evidence were found linking the
attackers to Pakistan. In Mid-January, Pakistan made
the arrests of several members of the Jaish-e-
Mohammed, which India suspects of involvement in
attack.
Reports claimed that the people who carried
out the attack in Pathankot were in regular touch with
their Pakistani handlers. A report revealed that the
two phone numbers to which calls were made by the
attackers were from Pakistan. According to the
report, the first number probably belonged to the
mother of one of the militants, while the second one
belonged to one of the handlers of the attackers.
Intelligence Bureau officials told TOI that the
attackers called their handler ustaad while
describing their positions inside Punjab after crossing
over from Pakistan.
The attackers called a number at 21:12 on
31 December from the phone of taxi driver Ikaagar
Singh. Perpetrators also received four phone calls on
Ikrar Singhs number. On this number, in fact, the
terrorist is heard telling the attacker to kill the taxi
driver, the official told TOI. One of the attackers
called up his mother in the middle of attack from the
mobile phone of jeweller Rajesh Verma. The call was
made at around 08:30, five hours after the attack was
launched on the airbase. Maulana Masood Azhar,
chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad, and his brother Abdul
85
Rauf Asghar, mastermind of IC-814 hijack case, are
among four persons identified by Indian intelligence
agencies as handlers behind the attack. The
agencies found evidence that the conspiracy was
hatched near Lahore. Indian defense Minister
Manohar Parrikar said there are indications that some
of the materials used were made in Pakistan.5
The Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs
issued a press release condemning the attack and
offered condolences. Foreign office spokesman Qazi
Khalilullah said. Building on the goodwill created
during the recent high-level contacts between the two
countries, Pakistan remains committed to partner with
India as well as other countries in the region to
completely eradicate the menace of terrorism
afflicting our region.6 Pakistan also complained that
India accused the Pakistani state of the attack. Special
assistant to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Irfan
Siddiqui, said, India should understand that Pakistan
itself had been one of the greatest victims of terrorist
attacks on its soil. He regretted that only after a
few terrorist attacks India begins hurling baseless
allegations. He advised India to review its stance by
further saying, India should create an environment
of trust, as unfounded allegations only hamper the
process of dialogue. Former foreign secretary of
Pakistan Riaz Khokhar said, India was trying to
tarnish Pakistans image and is using such attacks to
derail talks. Pakistani news channel ARY News
reported today that some arrests have been made
in this regard but police did not confirm any arrest
related to the Pathankot attack, as per PTI.
Indias Strategy to Fight Against Terrorism
Terrorism in India, according to the Home Ministry,
poses a significant threat to the people of India.
Terrorism found in India includes ethno-nationalist
terrorism, religious terrorism, left wing terrorism and
narco terrorism.8The regions with long term terrorist
activities have been Jammu and Kashmir, east-central
and south-central India (Naxalism) and the Seven
Sister States. In August 2008, National Security
Advisor M K Narayanan has said that there are as
many as 800 terrorist cells operating in the
country.9As of 2013, 205 of the countrys 608 districts
were affected by terrorist activity. Terror attacks
caused 231 civilian deaths in 2012 in India, compared
to 11,098 terror-caused deaths worldwide, according
86 World Focus February 2016
to the State Department of the United States; or about
2% of global terror fatalities while it accounts for
17.5% of global population.10
The Indian government uses the following
working definition of terrorism, same as one widely
used by Western nations as well as the United Nations,
proposed by Schmid and Jongman in 1988.11
Terrorism is an anxiety-inspiring method of
repeated violent action, employed by (semi-)
clandestine individual, group or state actors, for
idiosyncratic, criminal or political reasons, whereby
the direct targets of violence are not the main targets.
The immediate human victims of violence are
generally chosen randomly (targets of opportunity)
or selectively (representative or symbolic targets)
from a target population, and serve as message
generators. Threat and violence-based
communication processes between terrorist
organization, victims, and main targets are used to
manipulate the main target (audience(s)), turning it
into a target of terror, a target of demands, or a target
of attention, depending on whether intimidation,
coercion, or propaganda is primarily sought.Alex
Schmid and Albert Jongman12.
India subdivides terrorism in four major groups: 13
1.Ethno-nationalist Terrorism - This form of terror
focuses either (a) on creating a separate State within
India or independent of India or in a neighbouring
country, or (b) on emphasizing the views/response of
one ethnic group against another. Violent Tamil
Nationalist groups from India to address the condition
of Tamils in Sri Lanka, as well as insurgent tribal
groups in North East India are examples of ethno-
nationalist terrorist activities.14
2.Religious Terrorism - This form of terror focuses
on religious imperatives, a presumed duty or in
solidarity for a specific religious group, against one
or more religious groups. Mumbai 26/11 terror attack
in 2008 from an Islamic group in Pakistan is an
example of religious terrorism in India.15
3.Left wing Extremism - This form of terror focuses
on economic ideology, where all the existing socio-
political structures are seen to be economically
exploitative in character and a revolutionary change
through violent means is essential. The ideology of
Marx, Engel, Mao, Lenin and others are considered
as the only valid economic path. Maoist violence in
Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh are examples of left wing
terrorism in India.16
4.Narco Terrorism - This form of terror focuses on
creating illegal narcotics traffic zones. Drug violence
in northwest India is an example of narco-terrorism
in India.17
Major Terrorist Groups Active in India
There are scores of insurgent and terrorist groups
operating in the country. Those recognized by the
U.S. State Department as Foreign Terrorist
Organizations (FTO) or other groups of concern
are: 18
. Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), whose name means
Army of the Pure, is a militant Islamist group
operating in Pakistan as well as in Jammu and
Kashmir. The group reportedly received funding from
Pakistans intelligence services until 2001, when the
United States designated it an FTO and Pakistan froze
its assets. LeT, which has ideological, but unconfirmed
operational ties to al-Qaeda, aims to win sovereignty
for Jammu and Kashmir and spread Islamic rule
across India. The group is blamed for some of the
most high-profile terrorist attacks in India, including
the July 11, 2006 bombing of the Mumbai commuter
rail.
. Jaish-e-Muhammad,(JeM),meaning Army of
Mohammed, is another Pakistan-based terrorist
group operating in Jammu and Kashmir. Founded in
2000 by the former leader of the now-defunct group
Harkat-ul-Ansar, Jaish-e-Muhammed seeks to drive
India out of Jammu and Kashmir and transfer control
of the region to Pakistan.
. Harakatul-Mujahadeen (HuM), or the Islamic
Freedom Fighters Group, was founded in 1985 as
an anti-Soviet group fighting in Afghanistan. When
Soviet forces withdrew in 1989, the Pakistan-based
HuM shifted its focus to Jammu and Kashmir. HuM
seeks to battle anti-Islamic forces and its members
have helped carry out operations as far away as
Myanmar, Tajikistan, and Bosnia.
. Harakatul-Jihad-I-Islami (HUJI) was founded
in 1980 to fight Soviets in Afghanistan but has since
concentrated its efforts in Jammu and Kashmir.
HUJI, which is based in Pakistan and Kashmir,
primarily attacks Indian military targets, but it is
believed to be linked to the abduction and slaying of
five Western tourists in Jammu and Kashmir in 1995.
Pathankot Airbase Attack and Indias Fight Against Terrorism
. Jamiatul-Mujahadeen is a small group of pro-
Pakistan Kashmiri separatists operating in or near
Pakistan. It is thought to be responsible for a pair of
2004 grenade attacks against political targets in India.
Strategies to Counter Terrorism in India
Indias vulnerability to terrorism to a large measure
is attributable to its geography its borders are not
secure. An open border with Nepal, a porous border
with Bangladesh as well as the long Line of Control
in Jammu and Kashmir which allows for infiltration,
contribute to the unhindered movement of terrorists
from across the borders. Indias coastal security also
needs to be beefed up, as the Mumbai terrorist attack
has demonstrated. Home grown terrorist groups,
abetted and aided by external help, have also
established a foothold. Socio economic and political
motivations have also been contributing factors to
violent activities.21
National Counter Terrorism Centre
(NCTC) - The National Counter Terrorism Center
(NCTC) is a proposed federal anti-terror agency to
be created in India, modelled on the National
Counterterrorism Center of the USA. The proposal
arose after the 2008 Mumbai attacks aka 26/11
attacks where several intelligence and operational
failures revealed the need for a federal agency with
real time intelligence inputs of actionable value
specifically to counter terrorist acts against India. The
proposal has however met with much criticism from
the Chief Ministers of various states who see this as
a means of weakening Indias federalism. The NCTC
will derive its powers from the Unlawful Activities
Prevention Act, 1967. It is to be a part of the
Intelligence Bureau and will be headed by a Director
who will report to the Director IB and the Home
Secretary. But the modified original draft of NCTC
says that this system does not come under purview
of Intelligence Bureau and states are taken into
confidence before the Centre carries on any operation
in their territories. The NCTC will execute counter-
terror operations and collect, collate and disseminate
data on terrorism besides maintaining a data base on
terrorists and their associates including their families.
The NCTC has been empowered to analyses
intelligence shared by agencies like the Intelligence
Bureau and select what it deems suitable. It has also
been granted powers to conduct searches and arrests
87
in any part of India and will formulate responses to
terror threats.20
However, the body has not seen the light of
the day because of the opposition of states who
consider it as diluting the federal structure of the
country. This is because unlike the American National
Counterterrorism Center, which deals only with
strategic planning and integration of intelligence, or
the British Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, which
has also has a coordinating role, the NCTC has
sweeping powers to conduct operations. This, the
states say, goes against the constitutional provisions
which place law and order under the states list. While
the government has altered the original provisions by
keeping the NCTC out of IB and handing over
arrested suspects to state police, but these have still
not satisfied states and resultantly, the all-important
terrorism fighting organization remains hanging in
limbo.
The state police and its intelligence set-
up: Under Indias federal Constitution, the
responsibility for policing and maintenance of law and
order is that of the individual states. The central
government in New Delhi can only give them advice,
financial help, training and other assistance to
strengthen their professional capabilities and share
with them the intelligence collected by it. The
responsibility for follow-up action lies with the state
police.
The national intelligence community: This
consists of the internal intelligence agency (the
ministry of home affairs Intelligence Bureau), the
external intelligence agency (the Cabinet secretariats
Research and Analysis Wing), the Defence
Intelligence Agency, and the intelligence directorates
general of the armed forces.
The IB collects terrorism-related intelligence
inside the country and RAW does it outside. The DIA
and the intelligence directorates general of the armed
forces essentially collect tactical intelligence during
their counter-terrorism operations in areas such as
Jammu and Kashmir, Nagaland, etc. where they are
deployed.
88 World Focus February 2016
Physical security agencies: These include
the Central Industrial Security Force, responsible for
physical security at airports and sensitive
establishments; the National Security Guards, a
specially trained intervention force to terminate
terrorist situations such as hijacking, hostage-taking,
etc; and the Special Protection Group, responsible
for the security of the prime minister and former prime
ministers.
Paramilitary forces: These include the
Central Reserve Police Force and the Border Security
Force, which assist the police in counter-terrorism
operations when called upon to do so.
The Army: Their assistance is sought as a
last resort when the police and paramilitary forces
are not able to cope with a terrorist situation. But in
view of Pakistans large-scale infiltration in Jammu
and Kashmir and the presence and activities of a
large number of Pakistani mercenaries, many of them
ex-servicemen, the army has a more active,
permanent and leadership role in counter-terrorism
operations here. What India is facing in J&K is not
just terrorism, but a proxy war being waged by the
Pakistani Army through its jihadi surrogates.22
What needs to be Done?
All cities must establish a network of mohalla
committees and housing societies to monitor all
suspicious movement in their own locality. Each city
must have a dedicated police officer to man this 24x7.
This measure will enhance both intelligence gathering
as well as alert police to movement of terrorists.
Police can circulate photographs and information of
the fugitive suspects to these committees. In short a
city wide concept of neighbourhood watch needs
to be implemented immediately. This will cost next
to nothing,
. In many western countries the police or intelligence
agencies have launched sting operations to lure and
nab would be terrorists before they commit an act
of sabotage. It is time our security establishment did
the same;
. Like guerrillas without help similarly terrorists
without local help would be like fish out of water.
Infringement of laws to support acts of terror either
for money or due to ideology needs to be viewed
seriously by both the police (and especially) the
judiciary;
. There is an urgent need to create a well thought
out standard operating procedure in case of a
terrorist incident. Once an incident is declared as a
terrorist incident by the designated authority (could
be the police commissioner in case of a city) then all
resources civil, military or private must come under
the pre-designated commander. All agencies must
be obliged to obey his orders. It is the lack of unified
command and pooling of resources on 26/11 that
resulted in the terrorists holding out for over 72 hours
and recent Pathankot attack took almost four days.
. The judiciary must deal with terrorism related cases
quickly and punish the mass murderers. It is time
that the judiciary sheds its proclivity to give the benefit
of doubt to the criminals while doubting the intention
of the law enforcers. If not corrected in time, we
may soon come to a situation where the honest
policeman will prefer not to act.23
Conclusion
Pluralism and freedom of choice is the core value of
Indian civilization. Pluralism of worship, thought,
language, dress and aesthetics has been embedded
in the Indian past for at least 5,000 years. This is the
best guarantee for the religious or ethnic minorities
and not merely the constitution. India has not become
secular or plural because of the constitution. It is the
other way round and that is because majority of
Indians believe in pluralism that India enacted a
constitution that does not discriminate on basis of
caste or creed.
Theres a connection between Modis visit
to Pakistan and the terrorist attacks, but not a
fundamentally causal one. Rather, the visit was a
trigger for carefully laid plans in a pre-existing
terrorist playbook. The idea to attack Pathankot
didnt first arise on December 25, when Modi
touched down unexpectedly in Pakistan. Such
attacks are months in the making. India needs to be
alive to the probability that Pakistani terrorists and
their ISI handlers have plans to attack every major
military installation within range of Pakistan. There
are also plans, surely, for assaults on Indian nuclear
installations and naval bases, as well as Indian
diplomatic missions.
Pathankot Airbase Attack and Indias Fight Against Terrorism
India cannot afford mismanagement of a
strategic border state. Corruption not only distorts
the local economy and politics, it destroys morale,
creating the perfect conditions for terrorist infiltration
and attack. Now that its apparent that terrorists (and
the ISI) have widened their incursive focus beyond
Kashmir, India cannot let any of its western border
states be so rotten.
References:
1-Pathankot-Jammu highway sealed after terror attack, India
Today, 2 January 2016.
2- Pathankot terror attack strikes at heart of PM Modis Pakistan
peacemaking. The Indian Express, 2 January 2016.
3-Operation enters third day, more forces rushed to airbase.
The Hindu, 4 January 2016.
4- Pathankot attack: How Operation Dhangu was won -
Times of India Times of India, 7th January,2016.
5- Phone number of Pathankot attackers ustaad in Pakistan,
The Times of India, Jan 8, 2016.
6-Six IAF men killed as terrorists storm Indian air force base,
Pakistan condemns attack. The Dawn. 2 January 2016.
7- Pak condemns Pathankot attack, says committed to eradicate
terror. Hindustan Times. 3 January 2016.
8-Hoffman B. (2006), Inside Terrorism, Columbia University
Press,pp.23-30.
9- 800 Terror Cells Active in Country. The Times of India. 12
August 2008.
10- Country Reports on Terrorism 2012, Department of State,
United States (May 2013).
11- COMBATTING TERRORISM PROTECTING BY
RIGHTEOUSNESS, Administrative Reforms Commission,
Government of India (June 2008)
12- Schmid&Jongman (1988), Political Terrorism: a new guide
to actors, authors, concepts, data bases, theories and, literature.
13-COMBATTING TERRORISM PROTECTING BY
RIGHTEOUSNESS Administrative Reforms Commission,
Government of India (June 2008)
14-Hoffman B. (2006), Inside terrorism, Columbia University
Press, Columbia,pp124-136.
15-Helping India fight terrorism Ministry of External Affairs,
Govt of India (2012) .
16-Enders & Sandler (2011), The political economy of terrorism,
2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp.23-
42.
17-Sharma (2013), Growing overlap between terrorism and
organized crime in India: A case study, Security Journal, 26(1),
pp- 60-79
19-Eben Kaplan, and JayshreeBajoria Counterterrorism in
India Council on Foreign Relations, November 27, 2008http:/
/www.cfr.org/india/counterterrorism-india/p11170
20-Whats the fuss on NCTC.The Sunday Guardian. 17
February 2012.
21-VivekLall Counter Terrorism and Global Learning,May
2012;
22 -Indias counter-terrorism strategy Rediff.com, http://
www.rediff.com/news/2003/apr/05spec.htm
23- Anil Athale, Seven simple steps to curb terrorism in India
August 06, 2012.
89
 Indo-US Cooperation on Countering Terrorism:
Zero Tolerance
Introduction
The root of modern geopolitics was found in the work
of a German geographer Professor Friedrich Ratzel
in 1897 who coined the phrase anthrogeographical,
meaning a combination of anthropology, geography
and politics. A Swedish Professor of geography at
Gothenburg University, Professor Rudolf Kjellen was
usually regarded as the founder of the science of
geopolitics in 1900, who used the term geopolitics (in
Swedish geopolitik). The term geopolitics means a
study of the influence of such factors as geography,
economics, and demography on the politics and
especially the foreign policy of a state. The behavior
of nation-states varies in response to the geography,
economy and demography in the international
scenario.
For example, Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer
Mahan a professor at the U.S. Naval Academy
published the first of many works on the subject of
geopolitics in 1890. Based on a study of previous
world powers, Portugal, Spain and England, he
concluded that maritime commerce was indispensable
to the economic prosperity of a great power. So
according to Admiral Mahan it led the United States
to develop a powerful naval fleet that was engaged
in the Spanish-American War of 1898.
During World War II, another theory of
geopolitics was developed in the United States.
Professor Nicholas Spykman felt the importance of
both sea and land power. He located the real potential
of Eurasia in the inner crescent. He defined this
area as Western Europe, the Middle East, South Asia,
Southeast Asia and the Far East. This Rimland was
important because the region had access to the sea
and to interior regions. Professor Spykmans Rimland
theory eventually served as an imminent factor
justifying the U.S. policy of containment of the spread
of communism during Cold War. The end of Cold
War and the onset of globalization created a
90 World Focus February 2016
Dr. Sanghamitra Patnaik
challenging geo-political scenario in international
politics.
The Aftermath of Cold War and Onset of
Globalization
The culmination of Cold War did not bring an end to
international tensions. During Cold War, the United
States and the Soviet Union acted like the cork in a
champagne bottle- a stabilizing force. The balance
of power was maintained by both the super powers
by limiting the use of force. With the fall of Berlin
Wall, it was like pulling the cork out of the bottle, all
the individual nation states were free to go their own
way. As Richard Haass, in his book Intervention,
pointed out Duopolies, or systems based on two poles,
are simpler and easier to manage than those with
multiple decision-making centers (Hass, 1994).
The term globalization has been interpreted
differently by different writers. It is a concept that
paves for the inexorable integration of markets, nation-
states and technologies. It enables individuals,
corporations and nation-states to reach round the
world farther, faster, deeper and cheaper than ever
before. The unprecedented revolution in global
communication system brought a radical change in
the international politics. It weakened the influence
of nation-state. The increased communications make
it very difficult for state to control individual behavior.
The impact of regional organizations and multi-
national corporations limited the power of a state to
control the events within its territory than in the past.
The revolutionary changes in both
conventional and unconventional military technologies
enhanced the capability of small groups / individuals
to alter the structure of the international system as
propounded by the neo-realists like Kenneth Waltz.
The groups like ISIS and other terrorist groups
became more powerful to unleash instability and terror
throughout the world. Richard Haass calls this a
period of international deregulation- a period where
There are new players, new capabilities and new
alignments, but as yet, no new rules.( ibid)
The Geopolitics of Global Terrorism
In the late 1990s, Dr.Thomas P.M. Barnett, a
professor at the Naval War College, while studying
the post Cold War situation, looked at the factor of
globalization and its impact on individual nation-states.
His studies point out that the globalization is simply
too big and too complex to reach any clear-cut
conclusion to evaluate its impact as good or bad.
According to him, the terrorist attack of
September 11, 2001 was not an attack by a great
power, or a nation, or even an army, but by a group
whose bases of operation were located in gap states
of the world. He defines Gap states are those states
where globalization is absent or have less impact.
The progress is thwarted by repressive regimes,
widespread poverty and disease, frequent mass
killings and conflicts that encourage the global
terrorists. The operating base of Osama Bin Laden
and Al Qaeda were in Sudan and Afghanistan. The
U.S. Special Forces were deployed in northwestern
Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen which all fall in the
same category. Dr. Barnetts said, A countrys
potential to warrant a U.S. military response is
inversely related to its globalization connectivity.
(Barnett, 2002) Military strategists were made to start
thinking about operations in those gap states of the
world which seem to be the breeding ground of global
terrorism. The September 11, attacks was a clear
alert from the gap states against the core states and
against the whole concept of globalization. Al Qaeda
started from Afghanistan, one of the Gap states by
using icons of international connectivity as weapons
(United and American Airlines) to smash World Trade
Center in New York City -the financial nerve centers
(symbols of globalization).
One year after the September 11 attacks,
the Bush administration published a new National
Security Strategy designed to deal with the post-Cold
War world. It reflected very closely the principles
outlined by Dr. Barnett. While emphasizing on the
New Strategy, President Bush described the current
situation by saying, Enemies in the past needed great
armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger
America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can
Indo-US Cooperation on Countering Terrorism: Zero Tolerance
bring great chaos and suffering to our shores for less
than it costs to purchase a single tank (Bush, 2002).
He also says that terrorists are organized to
turn the power of modern technologies against United
States. In pointing out the differences of the current
world from the Cold War era, he said, Today, the
worlds great powers find themselves on the same
side - united by common dangers of terrorist violence
and chaos. In emphasizing the problems of the gap
states, the president said, The events of September
11, 2001 taught us that weak states, like Afghanistan,
can pose as great a danger to our national interests
as strong states. Poverty does not make poor people
to become terrorists and murders. Yet poverty, weak
institutions and corruption can make weak states
vulnerable to terrorist networks and drug cartels within
their borders(Bush, 2002).
The new National Security Strategy outlined
8 goals (ibid) which all fit into the geopolitical theory
pointed out by Dr. Barnett. The 8 goals of the strategy
.
are:
Champion aspirations for human dignity.
. Strengthen alliances to defeat global terrorism and
.
work to prevent attacks against us and our friends.
Work with others to defuse regional conflicts.
. Prevent our enemies from threatening us, our allies
.
and our friends with weapons of mass destruction.
Ignite a new era of global economic growth through
.
free markets and free trade.
Expand the circle of development by opening
.
societies and building the infrastructure of democracy.
Develop agendas for cooperative action with the
.
other main centers of global power
Transform Americas national security institutions
to meet the challenges and opportunities of the
twenty-first century.
The New Strategy emphasized on
strengthening alliances and tackle global terrorism by
collaborating with the main centers of power. India
as an emerging power fits well in to the new pattern
of US strategy. The Indo-U.S. Strategic relations
came as a welcome step in this direction.
91
 Indo-US Cooperative Engagement
The Indo- US relations represent a new landmark in
the changed international scenario. They are the proud
fore- runners of the two most populous democracies
of the world. The determined effort of the US
administration to assist in Indias rise as a major power
has significant implications for US interests in Asia
in general and South Asia in particular. The collapse
of the Soviet Union has changed the balance of power.
Every country including India is looking for an
appropriate place in a new international matrix.
The whole Cold War period had seen hardly
any significant economic cooperation and political
convergence between India and the United States
except the brief interlude of cooperation during the
Indo-China War in 1962, military aid between 1954
and 1964 (worth $10 billion) and Memorandum of
Understanding signed in 1984 on transfer of
technology.
The growing Indo-US defence cooperation
of 1980s was reflected by efforts to increase
reciprocal exchange of information and personnel.
The military-to-military interaction stated to improve
under the Kickleighter proposals (April 1991). The
Kickleighters proposal was formalized by the
Agreed Minute on Defence Cooperation in January
1995. A Defence Policy Group (DPG) was
established to become a primary mechanism to guide
the Indo-US defence ties (Chari 2003). The period
of 1990s was a period of cooperative engagement
between the two countries. The end of the Cold War
brought modifications in Indian nonalignment policy,
leading to the intensification of strategic interaction
between the US and India.
When the Indo-US relations began to move
in a positive direction in the 1990s, issues like signing
of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the
Kashmir issue, the human rights issue and Indias
nuclear test put hurdles on the path of Indo-US
relations. Indian nuclear tests triggered a set of
stringent US sanctions. Still, the US tried to retain as
much of the military-to-military relationship as
possible as Clinton, instead of isolating India, followed
the Strategy of Engagement (Talbott 2004). There
was a bilateral strategic dialogue between the US
Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and Indian
92 World Focus February 2016
External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh in June 1998
(Singh 2006).
However, during the George W. Bush
administration the growing Indo-US bonhomie entered
into a strategic partnership. The Bush administration
redefined Indo-US cooperation as they saw
strategically important India as a potential partner in
providing peace and stability in the Indian Ocean by
conceptualizing new Asian balance of power amidst
the rising China. The United States recognized India
as a rising power, as it has worlds second fastest
growing economy with a stable and successful
democracy. Consequently, in May 2001, US Deputy
Secretary of State Richard Armitage visited India to
explain President Bushs strategic framework
including a Missile Defence Programme. He hinted
at countering of rogue states like Iran, Iraq, Libya,
North Korea and some in Indias neighborhood those
support terrorism. Indias unconditional support for a
missile defence system and full cooperation with the
US after 9/11 was seen positively by the Pentagon.
The high level military and political leaders
visits between both the countries became more
frequent. (Text of Ambassador Robert Blackwills
Speech,2003). The cooperation in the defence and
military sector emerged as one of the most crucial
components in the Indo-US bilateral relationship,
paving the way for another breakthrough in the form
of the Next Step in the Strategic Progress (NSSP) in
2004.
The Indo US partnership that has made a
new beginning in the latter parts of the Clinton
Administration reached a new high with the US-India
agreements in June and July 2005 between US
President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister
Dr. Manmohan Singh. The Joint Statement issued
by them showed their resolve to establish a global
partnership through increased cooperation on various
issues. The post-9/11 Indo-US cooperation that
highlighted various important issues like Counter
Terrorism, Energy, Agriculture and Health,
Science & Technology Education, Business, and
Culture, were widely viewed as the reflections of
the positive new trajectories to carve out a The Indo-
U.S. strategic Dialogue initiated in the 2010 through
5th Strategic Dialogue 2014 underlines the following
.
areas of convergence:
To broaden and deepen the US-India global
strategic partnership and
To chart a vision for the future- centered on
.
promoting shared prosperity, peace and stability.
counterterrorism cooperation,
. cyber security,
. aviation safety,
. womens empowerment,
. scientific cooperation and clean energy,
. information sharing, and higher education
Indo-U.S. Strategic Dialogue Global Campaign
against Terrorism
The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and
Pentagon and their aftermath made US to realize its
vulnerabilities, and sensitized it to the issue of
terrorism; with which India has been suffering from
almost two decades. The United States adopted a
more reserved approach towards state-sponsored
terrorism until it became a victim in September 2001.
The unprecedented event compelled US to cover
half of the globe to fight terrorism in Afghanistan.
However, the US Administration gave way to the
strong diplomatic effort of India when US Secretary
of State, Colin Powell acknowledged the terrorist
attack in Kashmir as a heinous crime that affected
India like other nations of the world.1 Since then India
has been recognized as a key partner in the global
coalition against terrorism.
The Indo-US joint effort of the global
campaign against terrorism was rightly been
manifested in the Joint Working Group (JWG),
established in the year 2000.It was proved to be a
useful mechanism for exchange of information,
intelligence sharing, anti-terrorism training programs
and strengthening institutional links between crime
prevention agencies in the two countries.
Counterterrorism
United States and India are jointly striving to expand
the scope of their counterterrorism cooperation, which
includes work on bioterrorism and cyber security. The
emerging strategic partnership between United
States and India is increasingly focusing on
Indo-US Cooperation on Countering Terrorism: Zero Tolerance
counterterrorism cooperation. In November 2001, US
President, George Bush and then-Indian Prime
Minster, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had shared their great
concern when they agreed that terrorism was not
only a security threat to United States and India, but
it was also a danger to freedom, democracy,
international security and stability. In 2002, the Indo-
U.S. Cyber Security Forum was launched to protect
their critical infrastructures from cyber attack. On
June 2005, the New Framework for the U.S.-India
Defense Relationship enlisted terrorism and violent
religious extremism as the key security interests, and
also called for strengthening their respective mutual
defense capabilities. In April 2006 session of Indo
US- Joint Working Group on Counterterrorism, both
the countries had reflected their determinations to
further advance bilateral cooperation and information
sharing on areas like bioterrorism, aviation security,
cyber-security and terrorism, weapons of mass
destruction and terrorist funding. In May 2006, United
States came forward to assist India in demining,
counterinsurgency training for police forces and
providing humanitarian relief for displaced persons
affected by the Maoist rebellion.
The Indo-US joint effort of the global
campaign against terrorism has been manifested in
the Joint Working Group (JWG), established in the
year 2000.It is proved to be a useful mechanism for
exchange of information, intelligence sharing, anti-
terrorism training program and strengthening
institutional links between crime prevention agencies
in the two countries.
Indo - US Fight Against Terror
United States and India are jointly striving to expand
the scope of their counterterrorism cooperation, which
includes work on bioterrorism and cyber security. The
emerging strategic partnership between United
States and India is increasingly focusing on
counterterrorism cooperation. In November 2001, US
President, George Bush and then-Indian Prime
Minster, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had shared their great
concern when they agreed that terrorism is not only
a security threat to United States and India, but it is
also a danger to freedom, democracy, international
security and stability. In 2002, the Indo-U.S. Cyber
Security Forum has was launched by both the
countries to protect their critical infrastructures from
93
cyber attack. On June 2005, the New Framework
for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship enlisted
terrorism and violent religious extremism as the key
security interests, and also called for strengthening
their respective mutual defense capabilities to achieve
such a goal. In April 2006 session of Indo US- Joint
Working Group on Counterterrorism, both the
countries reflected their determinations to further
bilateral cooperation and information sharing on areas
like bioterrorism, aviation security, cyber-security and
terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and terrorist
funding. In May 2006, United States came forward
to assist India in demining, counterinsurgency training
for police forces and providing humanitarian relief
for displaced persons affected by the Maoist rebellion.
Indo-US Joint Working Group on
Counterterrorism
In February and November, 2007, the Indo-U.S. joint
working group on counterterrorism met in New Delhi
as well as in Washington to discuss various strategies
to counter the global menace of terrorism. The
discussions primarily included regional
counterterrorism efforts, threat assessments in South
Asia and the Middle East, bioterrorism, weapons of
mass destruction, and the on-going Anti-terrorism
Assistance Training Program. They also discussed
about terrorist finance and money laundering, the
ideological dimensions of terrorism, information
sharing, and widened cooperation for preventing
terrorist acts.
Operation Vajraprahar Indo-US joint
maneuvers on counter-terrorism
Operation Vajraprahar was three week-long joint
maneuvers by Indo-American Special Forces on
counter-terrorism in Mizoram. On August, 2008,
around thirty American Special Forces personnel took
part at Vairengte Counter-Insurgency and Jungle
Warfare School -100 km away from Aizawl. The
focus was on tackling terrorism in urban landscape,
which drew upon the experiences of both US and
Indian forces in Afghanistan and Iraq and in Jammu
and Kashmir respectively.
The program facilitated the forces to be
acquainted with destroying missions in the dense
jungles, jungle survival tactics, and mock operations
involving helicopters, jungle reflexive shooting and fast
94 World Focus February 2016
roping techniques called slithering. In addition, the
personnel are trained in interrogation techniques and
identification and diffusion of improvise explosive
devices (IEDs). (http://www.india-defence.com/
reports-3941)
The interplay of terrorism, weapons of mass
destruction and countries those adopt as their state
policy to transfer these weapons to the terrorists pose
a great danger to humankind. It attracts urgent
attentions of both the countries to chalk out a new
strategy to tackle terrorism from the global as well
as regional perspectives. The dynamics of Indo-US
relations depend much on carving out a well-guarded
policy by redefining terrorism in the context of state-
sponsored terrorism like Pakistans involvement in
26/11 Mumbai attacks. In this complex situation,
United States need to give a fresh look, while analyzing
Pakistans policy of defining terrorists as freedom
fighters in Kashmir and offering them all types of
technical and monetary support. The US drone attack
on the Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Waziristan, tribal
areas of Pakistan, makes the issue more sensitive by
questioning the sovereignty of Pakistan.
Prime Minister Modi and President Obama
reiterated their strong condemnation of terrorism
with zero tolerance and reaffirmed their deep
concern over the continued threat posed by
transnational terrorism including by groups like Al
Qaida and the ISIS. They reaffirmed the need for
joint and concerted efforts to disrupt entities such
as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, D
Company and the Haqqani Network. They agreed
to continue ongoing efforts through the Homeland
Security Dialogue as well as the next round of the
U.S.-India Joint Working Group on Counter
Terrorism in late 2015 to develop actionable
elements of bilateral engagement. They also agreed
to continue to work toward an agreement to share
information on known and suspected terrorists.
They also reiterated their call for Pakistan to bring
the perpetrators of the November 2008 terrorist
attack in Mumbai to justice. The President and the
Prime Minister appreciated the positive cooperative
engagement between the Indian and the U.S.
authorities to counter the threat of IEDs and to
develop counterterrorism best practices.
 During President Obamas visit to India in
November 2010, the Indo-US joint endeavor on
Homeland Security Dialogue was initiated to
emphasize on operational cooperation, counter-
terrorism technology transfers and capacity building.
In 2011, the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security
Janet Napolitano while visiting India in May 2011 held
the first round of the dialogue. The second meeting
of this Dialogue was held in May 2013 in Washington
D.C. The Dialogue reviewed the progress/ activities
of each of the Homeland Security Dialogue Sub-
Groups, namely: (a) Megacities Policing; (b)
Combating Illicit Finance, Bulk Cash Smuggling, and
Counterfeiting; (c) Cyber-security and Critical
Infrastructure Protection; (d) Port, Border, Maritime,
Transportation and Supply Chain Security; (e) Science
and Technology Cooperation; and (f) Capacity
Building. In December 2013, India-U.S Police Chief
Conference on homeland security was organized in
New Delhi.
U.S.-India Homeland Security Dialogue 2014
The Department of Homeland Security and Ministry
of Home Affairs planned to hold a third U.S.-India
Homeland Security Dialogue to enhance homeland
security cooperation. They emphasized on building
up capacity in cyber security and critical infrastructure
protection, countering illicit finance, global supply
chain security, megacity policing, and science and
technology. In January 2014, U.S. Immigration and
Customs Enforcement repatriated to India three
recovered stolen sand stone sculptures dating from
the 11thcentury, valued at more than $1.5 million.
U.S.-India Counterterrorism Joint Working Group
stressed on continued exchange of senior experts
of both the countries to hold an in-depth exchange of
views on common areas of interest and collaboration
to further mutual U.S.-India counterterrorism goals.
The cooperative efforts include coordination in
international fora including the UN and GCTF, and
mutually agreed bilateral capacity building measures.
Law Enforcement Collaboration
This emphasized on ongoing cooperation and
consultations between the State Departments Office
of the Legal Adviser, the U.S. Department of Justice
and Indias Ministry of Home Affairs and Ministry of
External Affairs. This includes efforts by the Federal
Bureau of Investigation and the National Investigative
Indo-US Cooperation on Countering Terrorism: Zero Tolerance
Agency to share of electronic evidence to combat
cybercrime and mitigate the threat of terrorism.
Indo-US Joint Efforts on Combating Terrorism-
2015
On September 23, 2015 the U.S.-India Joint
Declaration on Combating Terrorism was announced
by Secretary of State John Kerry and Indian Minister
of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj on the occasion
of the inaugural U.S.-India Strategic and Commercial
Dialogue. Secretary of State John Kerry and Minister
of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj reaffirmed the
commitment of India and the United States to combat
terrorism in all its forms, which is a profound threat
to global peace and security, and to uphold the
common values of democracy, justice, and the rule
of law. They reaffirmed to translate President
Obamas and Prime Minister Modis vision to
transform the U.S.-India relationship into a defining
counterterrorism partnership for the 21st century .The
meeting reiterated the threat posed by Al-Qaida
and its affiliates, Lashkar-e-Tayibba, Jaish-e-
Mohammad, D Company, and the Haqqani Network,
and other regional groups that seek to undermine
stability in South Asia. There was a call for Pakistan
to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai
attack. They strongly condemned the July 27, 2015
terrorist attack in Gurdaspur, Punjab, and August 5,
2015, attack in Udhampur, Jammu and Kashmir.
There was a clear reorganization of the
serious threat posed by ISIL/Daesh to global security
and affirmed efforts to degrade and defeat this threat
in accordance with the provisions of United Nations
Security Council Resolutions 2178, 2170, and 2199.
The agreement was signed in January 2015 between
the U.S. Department of Treasury and Indias Ministry
of Finance to enhance cooperation against money
laundering and terrorism financing.
There was great appreciation for the 15 year
anniversary of the U.S.-India Counterterrorism Joint
Working Group and the provision of Anti-Terrorism
Assistance (ATA) training for more than 1100 Indian
security personnel since 2009.
They recognized Indias participation in the
February 2015 White House Summit on Countering
Violent Extremism and reaffirmed their support for a
95
UN Comprehensive Convention against International
Terrorism that advances and strengthens the
framework for global cooperation and reinforces that
no cause or grievance justifies terrorism. There was
an agreement on the U.S.-India Megacity Policing
Exchange, an initiative to deepen collaboration on
training and community policing between local and
state law enforcement. Both the countries moved
forward in signing the Memorandum of
Understanding between the Indian National Police
Academy (Hyderabad) and the New York Police
Department. They proposed for the next meeting of
the Homeland Security Dialogue in early 2016.
Conclusion
The Indo-US cooperation on countering terrorism can
reinvigorate their relationship if both the countries
understand the sensitivity of the issue from each
others point of view and act accordingly. This is a
challenge from the non-state actors with global
membership. It can only be tackled with collaborative
efforts on the part of both United States and India-
the largest and oldest democracies of the world. They
should join hands to build up the firewall of Zero
Tolerance along the line of the gap states so that
those states can be deterred from exporting the man
and materials to play havoc in seam and the core
states.
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26. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/09/
247201.htm
27. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/07/
230049.htm
 Geopolitics of Counter-Terrorism in Afghanistan:
SCOs Strategy is in Question
Since its political independent existence 1747,
Afghanistan had been useful for the great empires
for sustaining the balance of power. The geopolitical
rivalry between British India and Tsarist Russia from
the last century (1880-1901) to date had complicated
the security situation in Afghanistan. It was not the
issue of sovereignty rather it was security concerns
of British India and Russia that determined
Afghanistan as a state.
In the 1980s, Afghanistan was entrapped in
the internal political conflict on account of the
Communist coup. The security situation started getting
worsened due to aid and support rendered by the
opposing external powers having divergent
geopolitical and geostrategic interest in Afghanistan.
In order to restore peace, under the Geneva Accords
of April 1988, it was decided to stop the aid to both
conflicting sides in Afghanistan. But geopolitics
played its role and rather than being helpful in the
implementation of the accord, it created the
Mujahedeen, who became headache for not only for
Afghanistan and creators but also for the entire globe.
The SCO was established to face the security
challenges arising out of Afghanistan. During the
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) that was
launched by the US and ISAF, the SCO did not want
to get engage militarily in Afghanistan. However, all
the neighbouring countries have supported the global
war on terrorism (GWOT) of the US and NATO in
Afghanistan by sharing intelligence inputs and
whatever the possible support to the OEF except the
militarily support. The killing of Osama bin Laden
and changing geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics
compelled the ISAF to withdraw which has started
by the end of 2014.
According to an expert of the Eurasian issues
(D.A Mahapatra 2014), the geostrategic location, its
ethnic composition, and geo-cultural proximity of
Afghanistan with countries in the Eurasian region,
Geopolitics of Counter-Terrorism in Afghanistan: SCOs Strategy is in Question
Dr. Bawa Singh
makes it a zone of interest to the SCO including the
new joined members India and Pakistan. Sharing
geographical proximity with SCO members, its peace
and stability becomes a major concern for SCO
members. In this context, he argued that perhaps it
is the regional organization -the SCO is one of the
most appropriate platforms to discuss the Afghanistan
issue as it holds security as a key rationale behind its
existence.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) is considered primarily as a China-centric
organization. It is considered that SCO has been
serving more or less Chinas strategic objectives and
end-games. SCO is China centric and in order to
counter Chinese hegemony, Russia has been
supporting Indian membership whereas at the same
time China is in favour of Pakistan. Ultimately after
a long deliberation of one decade or so, in the Ufa
Summit 2015, SCO has formally accepted India and
Pakistan as full members. Indian strategic
commentator Subash Kapila has argued in one of his
articles that joining of these both countries would
plague the organization with lot many contradictions.
These countries have been accusing one another for
fomenting the terrorism activities.
Institutional Engagements: SCO and
Afghanistan
In order to control the spill over effect of this problem,
the SCO wanted to seek cooperation by
institutionalising its engagements with Afghanistan.
The engagements between SCO and Afghanistan
have started formally in the year of 2005 when the
SCO and Afghanistan Contact Group protocol was
signed. The main focus of this group was to enhance
cooperation and to discuss peace related issues. In
this group, diplomats and experts from both sides were
included and it was also decided to make interaction
with institutions of Afghanistan. The establishment
of this group was vital for both sides because it
97
provides the opportunity to interact and cooperate
with each other (The SCO-Afghanistan Contact
Group between the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan,
2005).
In June 2012, SCO has granted the observer
status to Afghanistan. The inclusion of Afghanistan
into SCO proved a milestone as both the parties could
help out each other to face and check terrorism, drug
trafficking and weapon smuggling etc. which are
becoming the major regional security challenges.
Luan (2012) has argued that Afghanistan being on-
board of SCO, it would be easier for organizational
members to counter the terrorist and separatist
groups, who are using Afghanistan as a base for the
activities in the region like IMU.
Afghanistans entry in SCO was supported
by all the organization members in general and
encouraged and supported by Russia in particular.
According to Russian Foreign Minister, the
engagement and interactions between both SCO and
Afghanistan would be very helpful for the eradication
of terrorism and for regional stability as argued by a
perceptible thinker Kundu (2012). Afghanistan is
making efforts to get full membership of the SCO.
Afghanistans Pajhwok news agency reports that
Dmitry Mezentsev, the General Secretary of the
SCO has confirmed this report.
Afghanistan: A Victim of Geopolitical Curse
Since the inception of Pakistan, the bilateral relations
had remained off the keel due the latters big brotherly
attitude whereas relations between India and
Afghanistan have remained very warm and cordial.
All the major and regional players are having
geopolitical interests in Afghanistan. The vested
interests changed into a geopolitical war between
the US and former USSR in Afghanistan. The
communism was expanding in Afghanistan on account
of Russian influence. In order to check communism
in Afghanistan, the US along with UK, Saudi Arabia
and Pakistan started supporting financially the
warlords (Mujahideen) who could reign the
communism of the Afghanistan central government
as well as weaken the pro-Soviet regime (Osinga
2005; Saikal&Maley, 1990).1
98 World Focus February 2016
Aligning of Afghanistan with Soviet Union in general
and the West in particular enraged Pakistan. Pakistan
wanted to keep Afghanistan under its control and
aligning of the latters with the West further enraged
Pakistan. Joo and Guilherme (2013) argued in their
article that Pakistans Minister of Interior,
Neseerullah Babar, recruited, trained and armed a
number of madrasa students to join a few former
Pashtun Mujahedeen fighters (da Silva &Simionato,
2013).2
Terrorism in Afghanistan
Afghanistan has been highly infested with terrorism.
Geopolitics, religious fanaticism, internal fighting,
poverty, inequality and underdevelopment were some
of the causes responsible for the growing of terrorism
in Afghanistan. The first group of terrorism in
Afghanistan was known as Afghan Taliban. It is
believed that it is being operated and sported from
Pakistan becoming the core of the Afghan insurgency.
This faction is divided into two groups- one is liberal,
open to talks with government and other one believes
in extremist ideology and because of this, conciliation
is becoming hard to realize. Katzman has argued in
one of his articles that this terrorist group has not
only been sharing close proximity with Pakistans
Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) but also
the fact is that it is being protected, supported and
for hurting the Indian interests in Afghanistan as well.
Hikmatyar is another terrorist group, operating in
Afghanistan. It is considered as a liberal group who
wanted to keep the options open for reconciliation
with the Afghan government. Laskhar-e-Tayyiba
(LET), another small Pakistani group based in
Afghanistan, used to oppose Indian control of
Kashmir. Lashkar-i-Janghvi, another small terrorist
group has often been accused of conducting attacks
on Afghanistans Hazara community (Katzman
2013).3
Genesis of SCO and Its Potential Security
Challenges
Originally established it was Shanghai Five in 1996,
rechristened itself as the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization after the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001
that comprised of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan as member
countries. Its charter also necessitates the promotion
and cooperation in politics, trade, economy, and culture
to education, energy, and transportation. It has two
permanent headquarters, the secretariat in Beijing and
the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in
Tashkent, the Uzbek capital.
The political instability and radicalisation of
Afghanistan also affected the Central Asian
Republics. The new members- India and Pakistan of
SCO are likely to join formally in 2016 which have
also been facing terrorism and separatism. The
established links among these terrorists groups are
being used to smuggle narcotics from the largest
producer- Afghanistan via Central Asia to its end-
use markets in Russia and Europe through Central
Asia. Almost all countries of SCO and other regional
countries are becoming the markets for drugs from
Afghanistan. On account of these contagion diseases,
SCO has been making efforts to take Afghanistan on
board to check these major challenges in general and
terrorism in particular.
By the end of 2014, the partial withdrawal of
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has
taken place; however, it has failed to root out terrorism
and brought the rival factions together in Afghanistan.
Worsening security situation, the pre and post phase
of withdrawal of ISAF remained one of the major
concerns for the SCO members. The Secretary of
the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, who
participated in the Dushanbe Meeting 2014, said,
Russia and its SCO partners share their concerns
over a possible negative development of the situation
in Afghanistan after this years planned withdrawal
of the International coalition forces. During this
meeting, the re-emerging of terrorist groups, the
violation of human rights, proliferation of religious
fanaticism, and drug trafficking to neighbouring
regions are some of the prospects that heavily
surfaced in the calculations of the SCO members.
Despite one and half decade of the OEF, there is no
improvement in security situation; rather it is becoming
a regional security concern. Stability and security of
Afghanistan has direct or indirect impacts for the
region and in view of this, the re-emerging of terrorism
is becoming one of the major security challenges for
the SCO members. The fear of an unstable
Afghanistan was the factor behind the creation of
the SCO. Vorobiev said,
Geopolitics of Counter-Terrorism in Afghanistan: SCOs Strategy is in Question
One should not forget that the SCO emerged as a
response to immediate threats of terrorism and drug
trafficking, which came from Afghanistan in the late
1990s. The SCO idea was born from a collective
demand for a regional coalition to combat them
(Vorobiev 2012).4
SCO: Changing Geopolitical Dynamics
SCO has been created for the protection from three
major evils: separatism, terrorism and extremism. But
on account of its internal geopolitics, it has been
moving in that direction at snails speed. Two new
members- India and Pakistan have joined this
organization. Both the countries see SCO as an
important regional organization to capitalize their
geostrategic and geopolitical interests.
Getting engaged with SCO by these countries
is fraught with multiple challenges, linked to the
complex geopolitical environment from the prism of
regional factors like Russia, China, Central Asia and
Pakistan. India is holding a very dominant position in
South Asia. Its neighbours are very apprehensive of
its hegemony. In order to restrict the Indian influence
in South Asia, the neighbouring countries in general
and Pakistan in particular wanted to engage China in
SAARC. Whereas on the other side, China and
Russia are the prime movers of the SCO, but on
account of the strong economic presence of Chinese
in Central Asia, the latter one is being outfoxed. Thus,
Russia wanted to counterbalance China in SCO, and
for that it wanted to engage India in the organization
whereas the latter is very reluctant to support the full
membership of India. China supported Pakistans
membership to the SCO. With the changing
geostrategic dynamics, Umair Jamal has argued in
one of his articles that close cooperation of India and
Pakistan has become compulsion for Chinese and
Russian security concerns particularly from
Afghanistan where the former ones are having
diverging interests. With the divergent and contrasting
geopolitical interests, the SCO members are not
supporting one another in the counter-terrorism
strategies.
SCOs Strategy for Counter-Terrorism
The terrorism, separatism and extremism have been
identified as the major security threats of the members
as well as the contiguous regions. During the Tashkent
99
Summit (Uzbekistan), held on 1617 June 2004, the
Regional Antiterrorism Structure (RATS) was
established. The cross-border drug crimes under the
counter-terrorism were also decided to fight in 2006.
However, Grigory Logninov argued that the SCO has
no plans to become a military bloc but with the
increased threats of terrorism, extremism and
separatism compelled to make necessary a full-scale
involvement of armed forces (Fahim, 2010,
p.183). 5 The organization has also signed an
agreement with the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) in October 2007, encompassing
the issues like as security, crime, and drug trafficking
(Bae& Kim, 2014, p. 173). 6
According to Neves Junior and Piccolli
(2012), there were two different approaches to
Afghanistan problem of terrorism in and the
declaration of the War on Terror: the interventionist
approach, practiced by the United States; and (ii) the
regional institutionalization of the fight against
terrorism, put into action by China and Russia, with
some influence from India. In contrast to the first
strategy, the second one gives importance to the role
of the state in fighting terrorist and insurgent menaces.
Neves and Piccoli have argued that the second one
is a broader conception of radical Islamism and it
stood for the principle of non-intervention in internal
affairs; rather it works for rebuilding or strengthening
of national states in South Asia. The SCO has been
in favour of the second strategy in which it has tried
to strengthen Afghanistan strategically, politically and
economically.
The first strategy was put into action by the
US along with NATO. The U.S. government started
Global War on Terror (GWOT) by launching the -
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan
on October 7, 2001. The aim of the US intervention
in Afghanistan was to capture or kill Osama-bin-
Laden and other Al-Qaeda members, to dismantle
the Al-Qaeda bases in Afghanistan, and to remove
the Taliban from power and to establish a democratic
government in Afghanistan (Stephen &Snetkov,
2012).7
The SCO has adopted the second strategy
in this regard, where more importance is given to the
state. The SCO started to institutionalize its
100 World Focus February 2016
engagement with Afghanistan in order to take it on
board. The first step in direction was extending
observer status to Afghanistan in Beijing Summit 2012
(Xinhuanet 2012). The Afghan government and the
SCO Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure have
instituted a protocol for sharing important information
in order to collaborate on averting, identifying and
eliminating terrorism. Currently, SCO is also
considering the Afghanistan full membership as the
nation has officially petitioned the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) for membership.
Afghanistan figured prominently in SCOs
strategy in 2005, when the SCO-Afghanistan Contact
Group was established. This group acted as a forum
for dialogue and cooperation between both the sides.
Rahimov has argued that the main issues of concern
before the two sides were how to restrain the spill-
over effects of terrorism and drug trafficking.
Strengthening of Afghanistans state capabilities and
the enhancement of cooperation for anti-narcotics
security were given the top priorities (Rahimov, 2013).8
In order to seek cooperation from other regional
organizations, dialogue initiatives with the European
Union concerning Afghanistan have been launched.
The SCO has been inviting Afghanistan to be a
participant in its Annual Summits since 2005. In the
Summit 2007, all the heads of the member countries
expressed deep concerns and expressed their
commitment for the containment of terrorism in
Afghanistan. In this case, the Russian President
suggested for creating a belt of counter-narcotics
security around Afghanistan and hunting down the
financial roots of drug trade in the region (Roy, 2007).
9
In 2009, the Moscow Conference was organized
under the aegis of the SCO. In this conference, a
Plan of Action was signed to combat terrorism, illicit
drug trafficking and organized crime. In order to train
the officers of the relevant SCO in this regard, it was
also agreed upon to create a Regional Anti-Drug
Centre and a Specialized Training Centre for the
training in this regard. The two sides have also agreed
to strengthen anti-terrorism efforts by focusing on
border control, joint operations to counter terrorist
threats and involving Afghanistan in a phased manner
in the SCOs counter-terrorism framework.10Zhang
Deguang, Chairman of China Foundation of
International Studies (CFIS) and former SCO
Secretary General, strongly believed that SCO has a
very constructive role in Afghanistan stability.
According to him, the SCO position on Afghanistan
was very similar to that of China, and it stood for
stable, independent, peaceful, and prosperous
Afghanistan.
Many other steps were in offing to help out
Afghanistan out of this crisis such as conducting
international conferences, assist in reconciliation talks
between Taliban and governmental regime etc.
Individually, the SCO members have also been playing
very significant role in providing economic help. The
major members of SCO like Russia, China and India
have been thinking to provide strategic assistance such
as training to Afghanistan National Security Forces
(ANSF) and Afghanistan National Police (ANP).
Some of the newspapers have reported that these
countries are ready to provide weapons to the
Afghanistan.
Some of the commentators were of the
opinion that as far as security and stability of
Afghanistan is concerned, India and Pakistan could
play key role in the same. Mahapatra has argued
that full integration of India and Pakistan with the
SCO would be beneficial for the stabilization of
Afghanistan. This would also be helpful in the
prosperity of both the regions. Beyond doubt, some
projects related to the flow of energy like IPI and
TAPI pipelines started moving ahead. This would
pave way for Eurasia to emerge as an integrated
economic zone.
SCO Strategy for War on Terrorism: A Question
Though SCO has been making its best efforts to
counter terrorism in Afghanistan, the security situation
has not shown the desired result. In the post 2014
withdrawal, if many reports from international media
and substantially validated by the terrorist activities
happening in Afghanistan are to be believed, there
would not be any doubt in saying that Taliban has
been re-emerging in the country. The track record of
the SCO in this respect has been doubtful as Richard
Weitz (2015) has argued in his article. According to
this commentator, the SCO has not made any
substantial contribution to the Afghanistans security.
The difference among the SCOs member related to
strategy have grown to the level of making its strategy
ineffective (Weitz, 2015). 11Moreover SCO has
Geopolitics of Counter-Terrorism in Afghanistan: SCOs Strategy is in Question
confined its security activities only in the north of the
Afghan border making only collective statements,
sharing intelligence about drug trafficking and Afghan
terrorists, and conducting intermittent joint
counterterrorism training exercises but has not taken
practical actions. However, the CSTO has taken
constructive role in this regard for preventing
terrorists and narcotics from entering Central Asia
from Afghanistan. According to Weitz, the SCO has
failed in taking the constructive steps whereas the
NATO has played a very constructive role in terms
of providing equipment and training to the Afghan
National Army. Economically, the SCOs role has been
very negligible for the stability of Afghanistan.
Along with these inherent problems, the SCO
strategy for Afghanistan stabilization has been plagued
by the geopolitical interests of its members. In view
of this, China has supported very strongly for
Pakistans membership in the SCO. With the joining
of these two members, SCO which has already facing
geopolitical challenges will get further heightened.
However, the Russian-Pakistani relations have been
strengthened due to changing dynamics but the
Russian diplomats no longer remained hesitant to call
Pakistan a potential failed state. They strongly
convinced that Pakistan could pose a serious threat
than the other adversaries to Russia. Richard Wietz
has argued in one article written for an online journal-
the Diplomat, that Sino-India relations are not on the
even keel on account of the latters strategic ties with
the US and Japan. Similarly, India is also having acidic
kind irritation due to the formers support for
Pakistans nuclear aspirations and blind eye towards
Pakistan-linked terrorism in India. In this situation,
Afghanistan is not keen to get help from these
countries in sorting out its security problems.
If we believe scholars from Pakistan like
Pervez Hoodbhoy, Fauzia Syed, Tarek Fatah and
many more from the country, it could be safely
assumed that Pakistan is supporting dangerous non-
state actors. Dean Nelson working with The Telegraph
(London) has commented in his report that the
President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari (2008-2013),
himself admitted Pakistan had created and nurtured
terrorist groups to achieve its short-term foreign
policy goals (Nelson, 2009, July)12
101
 Pakistans admission and accusation by
international organizations, a number of countries,
scholars, commentators and think tanks regarding the
state-sponsored terrorism, raised many questions on
the credibility of Pakistans help in its war on terrorism.
This state sponsored terrorism has inflicted a lot of
sufferings in terms of man and material loss in
Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban and the Haqquani
Network (HQN) have been strongly used against the
legitimate government in Afghanistan that are created
by Pakistan. Ankit Panda working with online journal
The Diplomat has observed Pakistan has been using
the Taliban to topple the government and create a
Pakistan favourable to strategic depth in Afghanistan
(Panda, 2015, June, 25).13
Both Afghanistan and India are the countries
in SCO which are suffering a lot on part of terrorism.
Seeing the exponential increase in terrorist activities
in these two countries, India brought a resolution in
the UN vis--vis Pakistan to control terrorism on its
land. Ankit Panda, a journalist who is working for
online journal Diplomat commented that as usual China
has blocked the Indian resolution and stood with
Pakistan. Its sponsored terrorism is inflicting a lot of
suffering on Afghanistan as well as India. It has been
observed in the recent past, that the counter-terror
remedies have been suggested by India, but it has
not been gone well with the prime movers of SCO-
China and Russia. The track record of Pakistan in
this regard is very much of double standards. Now,
how it can be fruitful for SCO in the stabilization of
Afghanistan when the latter has been accused of
providing safe haven for the terrorists operating in
Afghanistan? The Afghan President Hamid Karzai
regularly alleged that Pakistan has been operating
training camps of militants and used those groups for
carrying out terrorist attacks. These terrorist groups,
after their attack, find their hideouts in Pakistan (The
Dawn, 2008, August11).14After the Kabul attack in
which more than 50 killed and about 500 people have
been killed, the Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani
once again accused Pakistan for these attacks.
Chris Alexander, author of the book, The
Long Way Back: Afghanistans Quest for Peace,
who has also served as ambassador in Afghanistan,
while speaking to CBC television news program said,
The civilian government there (Pakistan) doesnt
102 World Focus February 2016
control military policy, strategic policy... but the army
and the intelligence service do.... and they have denied
the obvious, postponed this reckoning for years with
so many terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda. But
he was not stopped there, rather he further argued
that it is not only Afghanistan rather the major troubling
spot like Iraq, Syria and Russia were also suffering
on part of Pakistans policy (Williams, Christine, 2014,
April 7).15 The comment was further validated by a
report written by online editor Zachary Laub of a
think tank, Council of Foreign Relations (Washington
based), in which it has been well argued that without
any hitch the support is very well going on till date.
Afghanistan and India are the two neighbouring
countries that are suffering a lot because of this.
The United Nations has been making a lot of
efforts and institutionalizing the policy in direction of
counter-terrorism. Seeing the role of Pakistan in
terrorism and the accusation from many quarters, the
UN has chided Pakistan for its inability for reigning
the activities of Taliban leaders who have been
designated by the UN as terrorists along the
Afghanistan border (Minder, Raphael, 2007, January
9). 16
Apart for international organization, suffering
countries like Afghanistan, India, commentators,
thinkers and policy maker, have also opined the same.
Apart from geopolitically weak strategy, inherent
institutional hiccups chronically underfunded and have
limited powers to take decisions independently of their
member governments as argued by Richard Weitz,
senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-
Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, further
weaken the war on terror strategy of the SCO.
Matthew Crosston, professor and director of the
International Security and Intelligence Studies
Program at Bellevue University says that the member
states of SCO have also penchant for pursuing micro-
agenda which is undermining the group cohesion.
The SCO has lacked Capacity for Regional
Initiatives for countering the terrorism as argued by
some commentators. The prime movers of SCO like
Russia and China have not been on the same board
regarding some issues related to the stabilization of
Afghanistan. Russia wanted to give more focus
related to security issue in which it strongly believes
in the strategic role of Collective Security Treaty

Organization (CSTO) as its regional security forum
in the stabilization of Afghanistan. On the other hand,
China was in favour of the economic issues in order
to get Afghanistan out of poverty. Poverty stricken
Afghanistan can only be stabilized by economical help
from the SCO members.
What SCO Should Do?
Since its independent political existence 1747,
Afghanistan has been entrapped in geopolitical web.
Its security conditions have been further worsened
due to vested geopolitical and geostrategic interests
in Afghanistan. SCO has come into existence out of
Afghanistans security concerns. SCO has designed
its strategy in which state i.e Afghanistan must be
given important place in its war on terror strategy. It
has institutionalized engagements with SCO by which
security concerns of Afghanistan be sorted out. In
2015, the geopolitical expansion of SCO has taken
place by admitting India and Pakistan in the Ufa
Summit of 2015. The prime movers of SCO- Russia
and China and newly joined members India and
Pakistan have divergent and contrasting interests in
Afghanistan. In the post-2014, the security situation
has already been worsening. Pakistan that has been
accused of sponsoring terrorism and unable to control
the same which is not only operating in Afghanistan
and India, rather the most troubling spots like Iraq,
Syria, Central Asia, Russia and China are also
suffering from the same. In this light, the geopolitical
expansion further aggravates the situation in
Afghanistan. What SCO should in this situation? The
SCO has leverage against Pakistan by putting pressure
and Pakistan should be asked to control the menace.
Only strategic solution is not sufficient, rather
economic option will help more to bring Afghanistan
out of this crisis. Till the time contrasting geopolitical
interests are not left behind, the war on strategy would
just remain an eye wash.
Endnotes
1
Osinga, F. P. (2007). Science, strategy and war: The
strategic theory of John Boyd. Routledge; Saikal, A.,
(2012). Modern Afghanistan: a history of struggle and
survival. IB Tauris.
2
da Silva Reis, J. A., &Simionato, G. H. (2013).The SCO
and Post-War Afghanistan: New Challenges to Regional
Cooperation. UFRGSMUN |UFRGSModelUnitedNationsJournal, pp. 132-
158.
Geopolitics of Counter-Terrorism in Afghanistan: SCOs Strategy is in Question
3
Katzman, Kenneth. Afghanistan: Post-Taliban
Governance, Security, and U.S Policy. CRS Report for
Congress, Congressional Research Service, 2013.
4
Vorobiev, Vitaly. The SCO as a Rising Master of the
Heartland: How to Elevate the Most Promising
Organisation in Eurasia to a Next Level. Russia in Global
Affairs. March 25, 2012. http://eng.globalafairs.ru/number/
he-SCO-as-a-Rising-Master-of-the-Heartland-15503 (10
January, 2016).
5
Fahim, M. Y. Diplomacy. The Only Legitimate Way of
Conducting International Relations. Lulu. com).
6
Bae, J. H., & Kim, J. H. (Eds.). (2014). Chinas Strategic
Environment and External Relations in the Transition
Period. Korea Institute for National Unification (South
Korea.
7
Stephen, Aris&Snetkov, A. (2013). Global alternatives,
regional stability and common causes: the international
politics of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its
relationship to the West. Eurasian Geography and
Economics, 54(2), 202-226.
8
Rahimov, Khurshed. (2013). The Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation and the fights against terrorism in and
around Central Asia in O. Tanrisever (ed.), Afghanistan
and Central Asia: NATOs Role in Regional Security Since
9/11, IOS Press, Ankara.
9
Roy, Ash Narain. (2007). Shanghai Cooperation
OrganisationTowards New Dynamism, Online
URL: http://www.mainstreamweekly.net article313.html. 10
January, 1016.
10
SCO Secretariat Website, http://www.sectsco.org/
EN123/show.asp?id=99. 10 January, 2015
11
Weitz, Richard. ( 2015, September 15). The Shanghai
Cooperation Organizations Growing Pains. Accessed from
http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/the-shanghai-
cooperation-organizations-growing-pains/
10 January , 2016.
12
Nelson, Dean. (2009, July 8). Pakistani president Asif
Zardari admits creating and training terrorist groups on
Pakistani soil. Telegraph (London). Accessed on 10
January 2016. .
13
Panda, Ankit. (2015, June 25). . Why China Snubbed
India on a Pakistan-based Terrorist at the UN. The Diplomat
online Journal. Accessed from http://thediplomat.com/
2015/06/why-china-snubbed india-on-a-pakistan-based-
terrorist-at-the-un/. 10 January, 2016.
14
Karzai wants action by allied forces in Pakistan. The
Dawn (2008, August11), Pakistan.
15
Williams, Christine. (2014, April 7). Pakistan: State
Sponsor of Terrorism?. Accessed from http:
www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4250/pakistan-sponsor
terrorism. January 10, 2016.
16
Minder, Raphael. (2007, January 9). Pakistan should crack
down on Taliban, UN official says. International Herald
Tribune. Accessed on 10 January, 2013.
103
 Reflecting on the Dynamic Geopolitics of Northeast India:
A Contemporary Perspective
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set the
right foot in reinventing the dynamics of cordial foreign
relations with its neighboring political entities in
Northeast India while all the critics were eyeing on
his political moves. Receiving the baton of democracy
from the UPA government in 2014, the Prime
Ministers approach towards its neighbouring nations
surrounding Northeast was a strategic move. From
the instances of inviting his regional colleagues, the
Modi government had set the right political tone in
the burgeoning geopolitics of India.
It is to be highlighted that the strategic
importance of Northeast region vis--vis the
neighbouring nations and formulation of Indias
foreign policy should be held high viewing the rules
of political diplomacy. The acceptance of invitation
by all the head of governments of SAARC was noted
well by the media and citizenry marking revised
editions of political camaraderie. The first Prime
Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru in his book, The
Discovery of India, in 1944 says:
The Pacific is likely to take the place of the Atlantic
in the future as the nerve center of the world. Though
not directly a Pacific state, India will inevitably
exercise an important influence there. India will also
develop as the center of economic and political
activity in the Indian Ocean area, in SouthEast Asia,
right up to the Middle East. Her position gives an
economic and strategic importance in a part of the
world which is going to develop in the future. Further,
Nehru wrote, India will have to play a very great
part in security problems of Asia and the Indian
Ocean, more especially of the Middle East and South-
East Asia.1
Though Nehrus attempt of refashioning the
North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) as known earlier,
was nuanced in the then foreign policy writings of
thinkers and academicians during his times. However,
in present times it has been gaining much criticism
and skeptics argue of his fault lines in demonstrating
104 World Focus February 2016
Ms. Bipasha Lakra
the Indian Foreign Policy. However there are marked
changes and shift in the Foreign Policy paradigm
pertaining to the Northeast India.
Why Northeast India matters?
Karl Haushofer a German General, geographer and
geo-politician argues that the study of geopolitics
demonstrated the dependence of all political events
on the enduring conditions of the physical
environment2 . Explaining the meaning of geopolitics,
in a radio address in the year 1931, he remarks,
geopolitics takes the place of political passion and
development dictated by natural law reshapes the
work of the arbitrary transgression of human will.
The natural world, beaten back in vain with sword or
pitchfork, irrepressibly reasserts itself in the face of
the earth. This is geopolitics! (Haushofer translated
in Bassin, 1987:120).
Northeast India screens a mosaic of cultures,
lucrative economic opportunities and numerous
political strategic alliances that ought to be beneficial
if taken in right spirit. It has always acted as a buffer
zone for belligerent forces from causing harm to the
Indian nation-state. Indeed, the North East shares
borders with China, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and
Bangladesh culminating in a 4500 long international
border. With Myanmar alone, the prime gateway for
the North East to South East Asia, the states of
Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland
share a 1643 km long land border. 3
The present President of India, Pranab
Mukherjee, at a seminar held in Shillong in 2007 on
Look East Policy, highlighted the mutual benefit
that would be gained by political, social and cultural
marriage of the region vis--vis Indias Northeast.
He speaks of globalization ushering in humongous
cross border market access that could eliminate social
foes such as poverty, economic deprivation thus
bringing in prosperity. He emphasizes geography
as an opportunity thus marking new vistas for a
strategic region as Northeast in India. He says, it
brings benefits to populations residing in those regions
in a much more direct and participative manner then
before
Political dimensions of foreign policy towards
South, East and South East Asia have an important
bearing on the political, security, social and economic
developments in Northeastern region. Regional
associations like SAARC and ASEAN have heavy
economic investments and commercial opportunities
along with cultural connotations affecting largely the
people of northeast along with citizens from other
side of the border.
However, there have been challenges met
by the Indian government on issues of illegal
migration, drug trafficking, illegal trade, trade in
narcotics, arms trafficking, trafficking of women and
insurgency-related issues have always been kept alive
perpetually by political agents or lapses in the border
security leading to unwanted tensions between the
neighboring nations and India. It could be mentioned
that much security of India lies in the cordial
comradeship between Indian region of northeast and
its neighbours- Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan
and China. This makes the study of geopolitics in this
arena vital for a scholarship on Foreign policy.
Concept of Northeast as being a homogenous
entity and constructing singular ethnic identity post-
independence has done much harm than to develop
it. It is rough terrain and geographical inaccessibility
led to further ignorance by the politico-administrative
setup. However, each state of northeast India is vital
in its own way in safeguarding its territories thus
creating a virtual shield for India. For instance
Bangladesh shares a long boundary with Assam,
Tripura and Meghalaya; Sikkim with Nepal, Bhutan
and China; Arunachal Pradesh with China; Manipur,
Mizoram and Nagaland with Myanmar respectively.
Each state of India generates intrinsic complexities
where national borders meet international ones.
In terms of political and social lapses, the
region provides a congenial ground to thriving anti-
social elements in spreading political doldrums to the
entire nation. Reports of terrorist activities are on a
high given the porous borders in the region. One of
Reflecting on the Dynamic Geopolitics of Northeast India: A Contemporary Perspective
Indias leading newspaper Hindustan Times reports
that there were leaflets distributed in Assam and West
Bengal citing Jihadist plans purported by Al Qaeda
for establishing an ISIS-style caliphate in Bangladesh
influencing the eastern region of India.
If we manage to establish a Syria-like reign
here (in Bangladesh) then Muslims from Assam,
Arakan (former name of Burmas Rakhine State)
and West Bengal too would be able to come here for
hijrat (migration with religious agenda).
Simultaneously, anti-India revolts would intensify in
seven eastern Indian states, says the pamphlet. This
would be a huge blow for India, one of the key non-
Muslim states in the changed situation of the world.4
Moreover, reports of Maoist activities in the
Indian side as well as assistance from Nepal have
been other factor that has kept the Indian officials on
their toes. Other such fundamentalist forces and
elements working in the northeast cannot be denied.
Maoists operating in the Siliguri corridor and
insurgent groups within North-East are a cause of
concern. This is a narrow corridor, approximately 25
Kilometers wide providing road and rail access to
North-East. Efforts by ISI/Maoist in collaboration with
other insurgent groups to infest this area could lead
to serious repercussions for the whole of India and
particularly North-East.
The strategy of the strategic political visits:
Revamping relationships in Contemporary
times
It is to be acknowledged that inception of new power
in the hands of the Prime Minister of India has opened
new vistas of hope, positive diplomacy and bridging
gaps in foreign policy ordeals. The invitation of
different heads of the SAARC nations was a
welcome gesture in the diplomatic and realist
environment present in the current scenario. President
Hamid Karzai from Afghanistan, Shirin Sharmin
Chaudhury the speaker of Jatiyo Sangshad (House
of the Nation) accepted the invitation on behalf of
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of
Bhutan Tshering Tobgay, Sushil Koirala from Nepal
were invited and present in the swearing-in-ceremony
of Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi. Amongst
others who were present were Head of the state and
105
governments from Pakistan, Maldives, Mauritius, and
Sri Lanka.
After six months of taking charge of the
government Prime Minister, Narendra Modi attended
the 18th SAARC Summit held in Kathmandu, Nepal
signaling the onset of importance given to the regional
nations first or a neighborhood first policy. The
ongoing policy of SAARC initiatives has economic,
political as well as cultural repercussions. It is usually
derided as all talk and no action by critics and skeptics
was now to be shed. In a good gesture of goodwill
Narendra Modi visited all the neighboring countries
which lie to the East of India.
New Vistas of Politico-Cultural and Economic
ties with a Look East Policy
I. India-Bhutan: Counting on Gross National
Happiness
Barely a day after the swearing in ceremony of
Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India, he met
his Bhutanese counterpart Tshering Tobgay in New
Delhi. Moreover, after a month he himself visited
Bhutan for enhanced strategic ties. On June 16th 2014
he spoke to the legislators in Thimphu stressing the
importance of visiting Indias neighbor first rather than
visiting a developed nation. He says,
My inner voice said that my first foreign visit as the
Prime Minister of India should be to Bhutan. I did
not spend a lot of time thinking about it or planning it;
it was a natural thing for me to do.5
The key word here is natural, and
underscored the organic nature of the India-Bhutan
relations, which are underpinned by not just diplomacy
or strategy, but by centuries of Buddhism-inspired
civilizational links and people-to-people contacts. In
other words, while the head rules in the world of real-
politick, the India-Bhutan relationship is a union of
hearts and minds.6
Shri Modi said the plans to harness Bhutans
hydropower potential were not just about Bhutans
economy, or meeting Indias energy needs, but a small
contribution to the fight against global warming. The
Prime Minister also talked about the large contribution
made for education in Bhutans budget, and said this
reflected Bhutans investment in the future
generations. He said India was keen to make a
106 World Focus February 2016
contribution to this cause. He said India would help
set up an e-library in Bhutan, for the benefit of the
youth, which would help them connect with the world.
He said India would also double the scholarships that
are being given to Bhutanese students.
Stating that India and Bhutan must think of
how to take the relationship even further, Shri Modi
suggested that the Himalayan states of India, along
with Bhutan, and perhaps Nepal, could hold a sports
meet every year. He said connecting people through
sports, brings sportsman spirit, and that contributes
to happiness.7
Addressing a joint session to the legislators
in Thimphu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that
Indian space and technology could also be harnessed
to help Bhutan further its developmental activities.
He said Himalayas as a single common treasure
between the two countries and that it could be used
as a source of strength by studying its various aspects.
As India had already set up a National Action Plan
for Climate Change, a National Mission for sustaining
the Himalayan System could be considered in the
future. He spoke other important intentions of India
of establishing a Central University for Himalayan
Studies, wherein scholars from both the nation could
benefit. He spoke well of tourism too while combining
efforts from Northeast India and Bhutan saying,
Tourism unites and terrorism divides.8
India remains Bhutans biggest
developmental and trading partner acquiring aid and
assistance from the former. India has invested on an
array of projects such as airport at Paro, the Bhutan
Broadcasting Station, the Bhutan-India microwave
link, 1 million-tonne Dungsum Cement Plant, Bhutan
Institute of Medical Sciences, and all exploration,
survey and mapping of mineral resources. Indias
sizeable financial assistance to Bhutans five year
plans telescopes special partnership between the two
countries. The Indian government provided over Rs.
5000 crores for the 10th FYP. Out of this, Rs. 2000
crores was project tied assistance focused on 70
projects spanning key socio-economic sectors such
as agriculture, ICT, media, health/ hospitals,
education/schools, capacity building, energy, culture
and infrastructure. Small development projects have
had an enormous transformative impact on the lives
of Bhutanese people.9
A hydropower capability of Bhutan has
ushered in new sources of generation of power and
its supply to India. Rivers of Bhutan have a potential
of 35,000 MW ensuring more power facilities to Bihar,
West Bengal and Delhi. India has pledged to buy
10,000 MW by 2020 which would make both India
and Bhutan enjoy trade surplus in entire South Asia.
Three more HEPs totaling 2940 MW, i.e., the 1200
MW Punatsangchu-I HEP, the 1020 MW
Punatsangchu-II HEP and the 720 MW Mangdehchu
HEP, are under construction, and are scheduled to
be commissioned by 2018.10
II. Geopolitics of India- Nepal Relations
Re-examining India Nepal ties from a geo-strategic
point of view requires balancing act of explanation
as a change in regime from UPA to NDA has brought
in various positive as well as negative views from
across the borders in terms of their respective foreign
policies. With this it also need to be mentioned that a
change in the style of government system in Nepal
with the introduction of the Constitution and new form
of democracy has had important links as well as
having political repercussions to the foreign policy
calculus. SAARC Summit in November, 2014 and
External Affairs minister of India, Sushma Swarajs
visit to Kathmandu in July, 2014 was indeed a
strategic. The very act of formalizing a meeting with
Nepal seemed diplomatically important, for reasons
obvious being, China.
Owing to free movement in Indo-Nepal
border areas and interiors as well, Nepal is an
important nation for employing healthy foreign
relations. China and India have equal vested interests
in Nepal. Nepal poses as both a positive element
acting as a buffer zone in the northern Himalayan
belt as well as could act as a medium of Chinese
aggression against India. Therefore in order to
maintain a clear sky in the rationale of the relationship,
positive diplomacy becomes the order of the day.
Cultural and social ties have led to interweaving of
the economic ties as well. In accordance to a
government report by Ministry of External Affairs:
Two-thirds of Nepals foreign trade is with India, with
bilateral trade estimated to be around USD 4.7 billion.
Reflecting on the Dynamic Geopolitics of Northeast India: A Contemporary Perspective
India accounts for 47 per cent of foreign direct
investment in Nepal. The trade treaty, which was
revised in 1996, has proved to be a pivotal point in
economic relations between the two countries. Since
1996, Nepals exports to India have burgeoned more
than eleven times and bilateral trade more than seven
times. Indian firms are the biggest investors in Nepal,
accounting for about 40% of total approved foreign
direct investments. There are about 150 operating
Indian ventures in Nepal which encompass diverse
sectors, including manufacturing, services (banking,
insurance, dry port, education and telecom), power
sector and tourism industries. Top Indian investors in
Nepal, among others, include ITC, Dabur India, Tata
Power, Hindustan Unilever, VSNL, TCIL, MTNL,
State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Life
Insurance Corporation of India and Asian Paints.11
Moreover, according to foreign affairs expert in India,
Nepal has a total potential of 80,000MW hydel power,
and if used in a technical and sound manner it could
cater to its neighboring countries as well and
becoming richest nation in South Asia. The Indian
government has granted heavy funds for an inclusive
progress to the Himalayan state and extended two
lines of credit (LOC) of US 100 million and USD 250
million to the Nepalese government respectively. The
earthquake assistance to Nepal by India was a
humanitarian cause with a soothing effect on its
political ties.
However, amidst political flux in Nepal, it is
an imperative of the Indian side to work in a rational
manner as there are an array of issues such as drug
peddling, women and child trafficking issues related
to the border, illegal arms and rise of Maoist activities
in the region has seen a spurt in recent times.
III. India-Bangladesh- Revisiting its
Geopolitical Strategies
Indias relation with Bangladesh is that of history,
literature, colonial beginnings and departure, politics,
culture and heritage. Times have brought in variation
to existing patterns of lives amidst the garb of
democracy and governance, society and religion. It
cannot be denied that Bangladesh once known as
East Pakistan and now Bangladesh is more to India
than Pakistan. There have been numerous
agreements and disagreements in political decisions,
107
criticisms, and skepticisms in the relations of India
and Bangladesh.
Strategic importance of Bangladesh
increased as India was marking its plans for a Look
East Policy spreading its influence to ASEAN region
and beyond. To mention I.K Gujral and his doctrine,
popularly known as Gujral Doctrine was of utmost
importance in shaping Indias image as a regional
player. The year 1996 witnessed the two nations sign
the historic 30-year treaty sharing of the Ganges
waters. This issue opened up better opportunities for
management of water and environmental issues.
However, there has been a spate of problems since
the inception of Bangladesh. The change of regime
in both the countries, reflexive attitude of nationalism,
federal politics, impact of trade, illegal migration,
recently resolved problem of enclaves were never
ending problems being dealt by both nations. In the
past one year, the political scenario has been diluting
into a favorable one. However since the UPA II
regime, the relationship between the countries have
been in doldrums as Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan
Singhs visit was shrouded amidst political upheaval
in domestic politics, especially in West Bengal, as
Mamta Banerjee Scheduled to visit Bangladesh with
Dr.Manmohan Singh got stalled as there were some
differences regarding the terms of Agreement on the
Teesta Treaty. The Indian Supreme Courts judgment
on 27th February 2012, in favour of nationalization
of and interlinking of rivers of India- being Teesta
and Tipaimukh had immense potential of affecting
India Bangladesh relations. This is so because
Bangladesh has 57 cross-boundary rivers of which
54 are shared with India and remaining with India.
Any change of course to rivers in India would have
adverse affect in Bangladesh leading to severe
displacement if such disaster followed. Therefore,
such fragile issues were handled strategically. India
has serious illegal migration issues with the other side
of the border. However on paper numerous
regulations are in place, but the security fails to record
such ones where there cannot be a real boundary.
Most of the border areas are marsh areas, where
residents easily slip in to India. This is major security
concern as not only the population demography
changes but also in terms of ethnic clashes between
the migrants and the Indian residents. Reports of
Jihadi elements operating in Bangladesh and planning
108 World Focus February 2016
to influence the Muslims in India are ripe. A spate of
arrests of two Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh
terrorists (JMB) in Noida by anti-terror squads of
Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal in January 2015 is a
prime example of the same.12
India shares a 4,096-km-long border with
Bangladesh and 262 km with Assam alone. The border
region is densely populated with numerous Indian
enclaves in the Bangladesh region and Bangladeshi
enclaves in Indian region. India has constructed a
3,406-km fence of barbed wire and concrete just
below three metres in height to prevent smuggling.
The Land Boundary Agreement was tabled in 2013
in Indian Parliament to decide the fate of all such
enclaves population. The year 2015 witnessed a
historic agreement that was signed between India
and Bangladesh known as the Land Boundary
Agreement. The Protocol (referred to as the 2011
Protocol) to the 1974 LBA, signed on 6th September
2011 during the visit of the Prime Minister to
Bangladesh, paved the way for a settlement of the
outstanding land boundary issues between the two
countries. In the exchange of enclaves, India
transferred 111 enclaves with a total area of 17,160.63
acres to Bangladesh, while Bangladesh transferred
51 enclaves with an area of 7,110.02 acres to India.13
The officials secured positive response to the
agreement and ensured to be vigilant of any untoward
incident in the Indian region bordering Bangladesh. A
senior official of State Intelligence Bureau said that
they were already on the job to collect ground zero
intelligence on the particular matter. The Hindu
reports:
With the long-awaited swapping of enclaves
between India and Bangladesh now complete,
ensuring security so that these areas do not become
a hub of anti-national activities seems to be of prime
concern of security agencies. I have already written
to the Union Home Ministry that security in
coordination with IB, BSF and state police should be
strengthened so that anti-national elements cant use
this as an opportunity. I have serious apprehensions
regarding this issue, he said.14
Thus in all respect, cordial Bangladesh
relations with Bangladesh is important as it not only
entails political, social or cultural repercussions but
ideological too.
IV. Dynamic synergy between India and
Myanmar: Contemporary perspectives
Myanmar could be regarded as the gateway to South
East Asia and bridging South Asia. Moreover, it makes
Northeast India all the more strategic due to its
geographical proximity. There is popular connect being
Buddhism, Burma teak, Bollywood, business and
Bharatanatyam between the two nations. However,
economic and strategic importance has been gaining
ground. After about five decades of military rule, the
present government led by Aung San Suu Kyi of the
National League for democracy has had immense
impact on international issues. Certain restrictions by
the earlier Junta rule have been abolished paving way
for a democratic polity. However, in 2012 visit by
Dr.Manmohan Singh and in 2014 by Narendra Modi
to Myanmar was a strategic one owing to the growing
clout of China in the region. A major arena where
India was earlier skeptical about is the Bangladesh-
China-India-Myanmar economic corridor, Chinas
major One road project. Critics believe that it was
to strengthen the string of pearls. Now it seems
that India should face the realities of times as this
would help in broadening its Look East policy and
making inroads to South East Asia. Interestingly both
India and China have cooperated well in Myanmar.
As one observes, ONGC Videsh and GAIL India have
stakes in A1 and A3 blocks of Shwe offshore gas
field in Myanmar. Both the countries are participants
of South East Asia Pipeline Company Ltd, where
CNPC has a majority of stakes.15
Arrays of businesses are thriving in areas
such as energy, food security, development
cooperation and economics apart from development
in political ties. It is interesting to note that there are
vested interests in Myanmar from both India as well
as China known to be diplomatically hostile to each
other. It is in the interest of Myanmar as to how does
it catapult its resources and exploit it to the benefit
for its new nation.
Conclusion
In an era of globalization Indias northeast is no
exception to political or economic vices. It has enjoyed
support as well as faced challenges leading to
Reflecting on the Dynamic Geopolitics of Northeast India: A Contemporary Perspective
awkward situation and political turmoil at the expense
of its people. Governments and regimes change but
one aspect of all such entities remain constant is
change itself. It is the changing times of each unit
in the geopolitical arena that brings in renewed aspects
of statecraft. Northeast would always remain an
entity of strategic importance. The present NDA
government seems to usher in renewed forms of
dynamism in the Look East Policy and through its
lens one gets to observe the vitality of North East
India. Since assuming office as Prime Minister, he
himself has made foreign visits to neighboring nations
instead of visiting any developed nation, and while on
his visit emphasizing their importance to India. This
marks a shift in the policy module of the present
government from the earlier one.
References
Chand, M. (2014). India and SAARC: Interlinked Dreams. New Delhi: Ministry
of External Affairs, Government of India.
Diplomat, T. (2015). Myanmars post-Election Future with India. New Delhi:
The Diplomat.
Goswami, N. (2009). Looking East Through Indias North East:Identifying
Policy Challenges and Outlining the Responses. IDSA Occasional Paper
, 5-22.
Gupta, R. (2007). Indias Look East Policy. Foreign Service Institute , 351.
Hindu, T. (2015). Security, A Prime Concern after Enclaves Exchange. Kolkata:
The Hindu.
M.Bassin. (1987). Race Contra Space: The Conflict Between Geopolitik and
National Socialism. Political Geography Quarterly , 115-134.
Mathur, A. (2011). A Winning Strategy for Indias North-East. Jindal Journal
of International Affairs , 269-298.
Ministry of External Affairs, G. o. (2014). India-Nepal Ties: Mapping New
Horizons. New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.
Ministry of External Affairs, G. o. (2011). Land Boundary Agreement between
India and Bangladesh. New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of
India.
Ministry of External Affairs, G. o. (2007). Look East Policy. (pp. 1474-1479).
Shillong: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.
Today, I. (2015). 2 Suspected Terrorists involved in Burdwan Blast held on
Delhi-Noida border. New Delhi: India Today.
Footnotes
1
Ranjit Gupta (2007), Indias Look East policy, Foreign Service Institute,
New Delhi, p 351
2
Bassin, M. (1987) Race contra space: The conflict between German Geopolitik
and National Socialism. Political Geography Quarterly 6, 115-134
3
Speech by the Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee at Seminar on
Look East Policy, Shillong, 16 June 2007, in Avtar Singh Bhasin, ed., no.1, pp.
1474-1479.
4
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/al-qaeda-leaflets-talk-of-bengal-
caliphate/story-.html
5
Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India Report- In Focus Article,
November 5, 2014.
6
http://www.mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm.
7
http://www.narendramodi.in/pms-address-to-joint-session-of-the-parliament-
of-bhutan
8
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-16/news/
50624019_1_bhutan-parliament-prime-minister-narendra-modi-mps
9
Documents-in-Focus Articles. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India,
November 2014.
10
Ibid.
11
India-Nepal ties: Mapping New Horizons, Ministry of External Affairs,
Government of India, 2014.
12
2 suspected terrorists involved in Burdwan blast held on Delhi-Noida border.
India Today, 2nd January, 2015.
13
Land Boundary Agreement between India and Bangladesh, Ministry of
External Affairs, Government of India, 2011.
14
Security, a prime concern after enclaves exchange, 2nd August, 2015. The
Hindu, Kolkata.
15
Myanmars Post-Election Future with India, The Diplomat, November
2015.
109
 Analysis of the Growing Strategic Threat of ISIS Rebellion
in Iraq and Syria
Introduction
Since June 2014, the extremist terrorist group known
as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or
ISIS) has expanded quickly and seized significant
territory in Iraq and Syria. It not only threatens the
very existence of the Iraqi government, but also has
changed the nature of the Syria conflict, and its
influence is spilling over outside of the region. In 2014,
the Islamic State expanded its militant forces from
over 10,000 to more than 90,000 (over 50,000 in Syria,
and over 30,000 in Iraq) in three months, [1] controlling
an area of up to 260,000 square kilometres and
selecting Raqqa as its temporary capital. Regarding
the composition of its militant forces, the backbone is
made up of the al-Qaeda Branch of Iraq and the
Chechnya Islamic militants. Later on they also took
in about 3,000 jihadists, hailing from dozens of
countries around the world, including second and third
generation Muslims with American or European
citizenship; dozens of Caucasians from Europe and
the United States who converted to Islam, and dozens
of ETIM terrorists. Since July 2013, the Islamic State
has hijacked several prisons; demanding that prisoners
become jihadists or be killed, save for those who can
provide a special excuse under Islamic law. [2]The
Islamic State accepted several thousand military
and government officials from the former regime of
Saddam Hussein and the rebel Syrian military
personnel.
What is the Islamic State?
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS, also
known as ISIL) used to be known as Al- Qaeda in
Iraq. After the 2006 U.S. troop surge in Iraq seriously
hampered the groups ability to carry out terrorist
actions, ISIS reorganized and began to rebuild its
strength. The Islamic State is not just a terrorist group.
It is a political and military organization that holds a
radical interpretation of Islam as a political philosophy
and seeks to impose that worldview by force on
Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Expelled from Al-
Qaeda for being too extreme, the Islamic State claims
110 World Focus February 2016
Dr. Chanchal Kumar
to be the legitimate ruler of all Sunni Muslims
worldwide. They have established what they regard
as a state which includes large swaths of territory in
Syria and Iraq, governed from Raqqa in Syria. [3] It
advances a number of theological opinions to support
its claims. Its adherents hold that they are merely
practicing Islam fully, pronouncing those who disagree
with them takfir (heretics). This designation is used
as religious justification for killing the Islamic States
opponents, typically slaughtering them wholesale. [4]
In 2013 they joined the Syrian Civil War, but rather
than focus on defeating the regime of Bashar al-
Assad, they focused on building their Islamic state.
On June 29, 2014, the Islamic State declared the
establishment of an Islamic caliphate with its leader
being Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph.
The foundations of the ISIS were formed
following the US-led invasion of Iraq (2003). The ISIS
or the ISIL was formed by the insurgents of the
Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Biladal-Rafidayn, also known
as the Al-Qaeda in Iraq (aQI). This group has been
given the title of terrorist organization by the
United Nations, European Union, the United States,
Saudi Arabia, and many others. ISIS now controls or
can operate with impunity in a great stretch of territory
in western Iraq and eastern Syria, making it militarily
the most successful jihadi movement ever. Since ISIS
has controlled more territory both in Syria and Iraq it
has increasingly been able to fund itself from the
proceeds of organised crime, including protection
rackets and bank robberies, and by selling natural
resources. The ISIS tactic is to make a surprise
attack, inflict maximum casualties and spread fear
before withdrawing without suffering heavy losses.
ISIS specialises in using militarily untrained foreign
volunteers as suicide bombers either moving on foot
wearing suicide vests, or driving vehicles packed with
explosives. ISIS is already a threat to the United
States. ISIS is not only dangerous in a regional context
because it is overthrowing modern state boundaries
in ways that incur massive ethno-sectarian killing and
cleansing. ISIS is also a global jihadist organization
that shares al-Qaedas ideology, such that its progress
drives towards a post-state and apocalyptic vision
that involves the destruction of the modern state
system. ISIS already threatens to escalate violence
between states in the Middle East that have been
fighting proxy wars in Syria for several years such
that ISIS military operations may cascade into a
broader regional conflict. ISIS is now a direct threat
to neighbouring states in the Middle East and ISIS is
broadcasting the intent to attack Saudi Arabia, Israel,
and the West. The threat of attacks against the U.S.
is present.
ISIS took root in the new era created in Iraq
after the Americans took control of the country in
2003. The Second Gulf War led to the overthrow of
Saddam Husseins regime, the dismantling of the Iraqi
army and the destruction of the existing governmental
structure. As a result, a security and governmental
vacuum was created and the countrys fragile social
fabric (in the middle of which was the volatile Sunni-
Shiite schism) was severely damaged.
Ideology of ISIS
The ideology of the Islamic State is that of Salafist-
jihadism. [5] It is important to remember that for them
there is no distinction between religion and state. All
decisions are based on a hard-line interpretation of
sharia (Islamic law), which is brutally enforced in the
areas controlled by the Islamic State. The ideology is
almost exactly the same as that of other groups such
as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. It differs in its approach
to the proper timing and the conditions necessary to
establish a caliphate. Groups such as Jabhat Al-Nusra
(Al-Qaedas official affiliate in the Syrian Civil War)
believe that although the long term goal is to establish
an Islamic caliphate, the time is not yet right for such
a move. [6] Salafist thought is based on the idea of
returning to the supposedly pure form of Islam
practiced by the successors to the founder of Islam,
Mohammed, and the earliest Muslims.[7] They reject
any later additions as bidah (innovation) and un-
Islamic. Their doctrine allows them to proclaim as
takfir (heretics) Muslims who deviate from their
strictly defined interpretation of Islam. The penalty
for heresy is death. There is an ideological split within
the Salafist community based on engagement in the
political process and the acceptability of the use of
Analysis of the Growing Strategic Threat of ISIS Rebellion in Iraq and Syria
violence. [8] Salafism as a movement began in Egypt.
Its ideological forefathers are the same as those of
the Muslim Brotherhood. It developed concurrently
with Wahhabism, the doctrine of Mohammed IbnAbd
al-Wahhab (died 1792), the cleric whose austere and
violent interpretation of Islam became the state
doctrine of Saudi Arabia. Salafism and Wahhabism
are very closely connected, partly because of the
movement of Salafist, Muslim Brotherhood-linked
clerics to Saudi Arabia in the1960s and 1970s. The
terms are often used interchangeably, but strictly
speaking Wahhabism is a subset of Salafism, a broader
movement to emulate the earliest Muslims. Wahhabis
call themselves Muwahideen (monotheists), a term
used often in Islamic State literature. [9] Both
movements draw extensively from the writing and
thought of the 14th century Islamic jurist, Ibn
Taymiyya. Sayyid Qutb, the Muslim Brotherhood
ideologue hanged by Egyptian President Nasser in
1966, is also a major influence on all jihadist groups,
the Islamic State being no exception. Qutbs
contribution to jihadism was to take the idea of
jahiliyya, the concept that Arabs were in a state of
ignorance prior to the appearance of Mohammed and
his Islamic teachings, and turn it into a concept of
political philosophy. Qutb termed anything other than
strict adherence to sharia law and Islam jahiliyya,
including all contemporary Muslim regimes. He then
advocated the violent overthrow of all such regimes
in order to replace them with an Islamic state. In
developing this concept, Sayyid Qutb built on the
earlier work of Ibn Taymiyya and the early 20th
century Indian Islamist Abu Ala Maududi.[10] These
ideas were further developed by the thinkers and
jihadists that would go onto form Al-Qaeda: Abdullah
Azzam (the father of global jihadism) and Osama bin
Laden. [11]
Propaganda of ISIS
ISIS makes intelligent use of the Internet, especially
the social networks, to send messages to specific
target audiences. Most important to ISIS are the
Western countries and their Muslim communities.
Intensive propaganda aimed at them is intended to
deter the West from attacking ISIS; increase the
image of the organizations strength; frighten Western
public opinion; spread ISISs jihad ideology to the
Muslim communities in the West and encourage
foreign fighters in Western Muslim communities to
111
enlist in the ranks of ISIS. Its propaganda activities
include posting notices, videos, audio messages and
pictures. So far its strategy has been very successful
and it has positioned itself as the Wests number one
enemy and gained support from the Arab-Muslim
street, jihadi organizations and Muslim communities
in the West. The social networks, especially Facebook
and Twitter, play an important role in ISISs
propaganda activity in the West. [12] ISIS exploits
its military successes, such as its victories in northern
Iraq and the executions of its rivals and Western
abductees, for propaganda to frighten and deter the
West and to recruit foreign fighters. Its propaganda
demonized ISIS in Western public opinion and played
an important role in setting the stage for the campaign
against ISIS initiated by the United States and its
allies. As a result of publicizing ISISs violence and
atrocities, its Facebook and Twitter accounts were
closed, cutting it off from one of its main channels
for spreading its propaganda. That forced it to look
for new ways to disseminate its propaganda. It turned
to less popular social networks, such as VK [13] and
DIASPORA. [14]
The popular group of hacktivists Anonymous
has announced a new campaign dubbed Operation
NO2ISIS against some nations it accuses of funding
or arming the radical Islamic terror group ISIS. In
particular, Anonymous will target three states
suspected of offering support to the Islamic State of
Syria and al-Sham (ISIS). Anonymous is promoting
a recruiting campaign to organize a series of major
attacks against digital assets of its enemies. The ISIS
group is also very active in cyberspace, and though it
has not yet demonstrated capabilities like the Syrian
Electronic Army, it conducts an effective propaganda
campaign through the principal social media.
Analysing the Twitter platform it is possible to note
that several accounts were created to under the hash
tag #No2ISIS to protest against ISIS activity in Iraq
and to spread information on its cruel attacks. On the
other side, a group which named itself ISIS Electronic
Army is declaring war on Western countries and to
the Anonymous collective.
ISIS weapons and their sources
Most of ISISs weapons were apparently looted from
the Iraqi and Syrian armies. Large quantities of Iraqi
army weapons fell into ISIS hands when Mosul was
112 World Focus February 2016
occupied in June 2014. [16] ISIS also received
weapons from rebel organizations in Syria or captured
them from rebel organizations. In addition, ISIS
purchased weapons in Iraq and Syria and abroad. So
far, the ITIC cannot map ISISs weapons according
to their distribution in the provinces controlled by the
organization.
According to a study carried out by Conflict
Armament Research [17], the weapons captured by
the Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria indicated that
ISIS uses captured American army weapons and
ammunition. They had been given to the so-called
moderate rebel organizations in Syria by Saudi
Arabia. According to the study, ISIS operatives
captured a significant quantity of light American arms
including M16 rifles stamped Property of U.S.
Government. The study also showed that anti-tank
rockets used by the Syrian organizations were the
same as the M79 90mm rockets delivered to the Free
Syrian Army by Saudi Arabia in 2013. They were
manufactured in the 1980s in the former Yugoslavia
(Conflictarm.com, August-October 2014). ISIS also
has ammunition manufactured in Iran between 2006
and 2013 (possibly captured by ISIS from the Syrian
army and its supporters, such as Hezbollah).
ISIS has light arms, various types of rockets
(standard and locally produced), mortars, anti-tank
missiles and launchers, and anti-aircraft weapons.
ISIS also has heavy weapons and advanced
technology captured from the Iraqi and Syrian armies.
According to media reports issued by ISIS, the
organization has tanks, various types of artillery,
various types of shoulder-launched anti-aircraft
missiles, one or more Scud missiles, one or more MIG-
21s, air-to-surface missiles and various types of
armoured vehicles. It also has mustard gas and
possibly other types of gasses it used against the Iraqi
security forces.
SOHR and an Arabic news site reported that
ISIS had taken control of the Syrian air force base of
Al-Jarrah, located in the rural region around Aleppo.
According to the news site, six planes had fallen into
ISIS hands. It was also reported that ISIS was trying
to locate professional pilots to fly them. In August
2014 pilots arrived in Al-Jarrah from Iraq and joined
ISISs ranks. [19] In terms of equipment, the Islamic
State has taken over more than ten government
arsenals, obtaining a large amount of military
equipment. In January 2015, ISIS was also confirmed
to have a military presence in Afghanistan [23] and
in Yemen [24]. Additionally, in early February 2015, it
was revealed that ISIS was smuggling fighters into
the European Union, by disguising them as civilian
refugees [25]. An ISIS representative said that ISIS
had successfully smuggled 4,000 fighters, and that
the smuggled fighters were planning attacks in Europe
to retaliate for the airstrikes carried out against ISIS
targets in Iraq and Syria. However, experts believe
that the ISIS claim of 4,000 was exaggerated to boost
their stature and spread fear, although they
acknowledged that some of the Western countries
are aware of the smuggling [26].
Financial capabilities
ISIS is the richest terrorist organization in the world.
It took over most of the oil and gas fields (6-8 oilfields)
in Syria and several oilfields in Iraq. Its main source
of revenue is the profit it makes from marketing
petroleum products, estimated at several million dollars
a day. Other sources of revenue include various
criminal activities, collecting taxes from local residents
or demanding protection money, demanding head
taxes from non-Muslims, donations from the rich and
ransoming captives. Following the aerial attacks by
the Americans and their allies which focused on ISISs
oil refineries, its oil profits declined to about $1 million
a day. [27]Thus ISIS is an extraordinary example of
a terrorist organization that acquired quasi-national
financial capabilities though military success. The
large sums of money flowing into its coffers every
month liberate it from dependence on Al-Qaeda and
donors in the Arab-Muslim world, and provide it with
financial independence. That enables it to increase
the number of its fighters, feeds the momentum of its
military successes, allows it to establish alternative
governmental systems in its self-declared Caliphate
State and to wage an intensive battle for hearts and
minds throughout the world to glorify its reputation
and increases its capabilities.
According to various estimates, ISIS receives
several million dollars a day from the sale of petroleum
products, that is, close to $100 million a month
(updated to September 2014). Its profits increased
significantly in the summer of 2014 after it took control
Analysis of the Growing Strategic Threat of ISIS Rebellion in Iraq and Syria
of Mosul and other areas of northern Iraq, and
established itself in eastern Syria. However, the aerial
attacks of the Americans and their allies on ISISs oil
refinery facilities in Syria hurt its ability to refine and
market petroleum products and decreased its oil
revenues to about $1 million a day.
Estimates from various sources
According to a senior Israeli intelligence officer,
ISISs revenues are between $3 and $6 million a day.
[28] According to an American army estimate, ISIS
sold refined oil from the refineries attacked by the
Americans at the end of September 2014 for about
$2 million a day. [29] According to David S. Cohen,
US Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and
Financial Intelligence, ISIS earned close to $1 million
a day from selling petroleum products, as of mid-
June 2014.According to the Iraqi Energy Institute,
ISIS controls the production of 30,000 barrels of crude
oil a day in Iraq and 50,000 barrels in Syria. It is sold
on the black market at the reduced price of $40 a
barrel (as opposed to $90 a barrel on the free market).
As a result, ISIS earns $3.2 million dollars a day from
the sales, or almost $1.2 billion dollars a year.
[30]According to Masrour Barzani, head of the
intelligence apparatus in the Kurdish autonomous
region of Iraq, ISISs daily revenues are estimated at
$6 million. The money comes from the sale of oil and
wheat, the levy of taxes in the occupied cities, ransom
and donations.
According to the British newspaper The
Guardian, October 30, 2014, ISIS earns $1 million a
day from the sale of oil. In The Islamic State
Richard Barrett quotes estimates according to which
oil production from facilities under ISIS control is
between 30,000 and 80,000 barrels a day. He notes
that even selling the oil at the heavily discounted price
of $25-$50 per barrel would provide daily revenues
of $2-$4 million. ISIS pays monthly salaries to an
estimated 25,000 operatives, costing the organization
between $200 and $600 per operative, according to
the operatives nationality and family size. ISIS also
has to maintain the logistics of its military forces.
Monthly salaries for administration personnel vary
between $300 and up to $2,000 for senior
management positions. [31]The main source of
funding for ISIS predecessor organisation al-Qaeda
113
in Iraq at the beginning of its existence was likely to
have been wealthy Gulf individuals [32].
ISIS control of the national infrastructure
In addition to its control of oil and gas, it controls
other facets of the national infrastructure:
ISIS controls three hydroelectric power plants and
one thermal power plant in the regions of Aleppo and
Al-Raqqah in northern Syria.
After ISIS took over Mosul, it was reported that it
took control of the citys Central Bank and the funds
deposited in it (estimated at $420,000). Apparently
ISIS also took over funds deposited in other banks in
Mosul.
Activities and Impact of the ISIS Rebellions in
Iraq and Syria
The rapid advance of the Sunni Muslim militant group
ISIS in Iraq has completely changed the balance of
power in the country; this threatens not just the
integrity of Iraq itself but could also lead to the
redrawing of borders across the wider region. ISIS
has systematically enforced rules and codes of
conduct on civilians living within its areas of control,
which fundamentally abuse a range of basic human
rights protected by international and Iraqi law. It has
also enforced its rules summarily, often inflicting harsh
penalties, and even death on those who transgress or
refuse to accept those rules. Among the range of
rights not respected by ISIS and associated armed
groups are the rights to freedoms of religious belief,
expression, and assembly and association. ISIS has
imposed severe restrictions on the right to freedom
of movement, particularly on women. It has imposed
unlawful trials in areas under its control that do not
respect due process or fair trial standards of those
brought before them, and breaches in particular the
rights and protections required for children. ISIS has
directly and systematically targeted Iraqs various
diverse ethnic and religious communities, subjecting
them to a range of gross human rights abuses,
including murder, physical and sexual assault, robbery,
wanton destruction of property, destruction of places
of religious or cultural significance, forced
conversions, denial of access to basic humanitarian
services, and forced expulsion.
Amnesty International says it has new
evidence Islamic State militants are carrying out a
114 World Focus February 2016
wave of ethnic cleansing against minorities in
northern Iraq. The human rights group said IS had
turned the region into blood-soaked killing fields.
ISIS directs violence against Shia Muslims, indigenous
Assyrian, Chaldean, Syriac and Armenian Christians,
Yazidis, Druze, Shabaks and Mandeans in particular.
The UN estimated that 5,000 Yazidis were killed by
ISIS during the takeover of parts of northern Iraq in
August 2014. In late May 2014, 150 Kurdish boys
from Kobani aged 1416 were abducted and
subjected to torture and abuse, according to Human
Rights Watch. In the Syrian towns of Ghraneij, Abu
Haman and Kashkiyeh 700 members of the Sunni
Al-Shaitat tribe were killed for attempting an uprising
against ISIL control. The UN reported that in June
2014 ISIS had killed a number of Sunni Islamic clerics
who refused to pledge allegiance to it. ISIS has
recruited Iraqi children as young as nine to its ranks,
who can be seen with masks on their faces and guns
in their hands patrolling the streets of Mosul.
According to a report by the magazine Foreign Policy,
children as young as six are recruited or kidnapped
and sent to military and religious training camps, where
they practise beheading with dolls and are
indoctrinated with the religious views of ISIS. Children
are used as human shields on front lines and to provide
blood transfusions for Islamic State soldiers.
The Economist reports that ISIS has taken
as many as 2,000 women and children captive,
selling and distributing them as sexual slaves.[34]
There are many reports of sexual abuse and
enslavement in ISIS controlled areas of women and
girls, predominantly from the minority Christian and
Yazidi communities.[35] According to one report,[36]
ISISs capture of Iraqi cities in June 2014 was
accompanied by an upsurge in crimes against women,
including kidnap and rape. [37] The Guardian reported
that ISISs extremist agenda extended to womens
bodies and that women living under their control were
being captured and raped. [38] Fighters are told that
they are free to have sex with or rape non-Muslim
captive women. [39] Haleh Esfandiari from the
Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars
has highlighted the abuse of local women by ISIS
militants after they have captured an area. It claims
that the Quran allows fighters to have sex with
captives, including adolescent girls, and to beat slaves
as discipline. [44]The pamphlets guidelines also allow
fighters to trade slaves, including for sex, [45] as long
as they have not been impregnated by their owner.
The Islamic state justifies sexual slavery by quoting
Quran 23:5-6: It is permissible to have sexual
intercourse with the female captive.
To finance its activities, ISIS is stealing
artefacts from Syria [46] and Iraq and sending them
to Europe to be sold. It is estimated that ISIS raises
US$200 million a year from cultural looting. UNESCO
has asked for United Nations Security Council controls
on the sale of antiquities, similar to those imposed
after the 2003 Iraq War. UNESCO is working with
Interpol, national customs authorities, museums, and
major auction houses in attempts to prevent looted
items from being sold. ISIS will also benefit from the
very large amounts of cash looted from Iraqi banks,
reportedly as much as $495 million.
Commercial Implications
The risk environment will deteriorate significantly
in Iraq itself but also (in descending order of severity)
in Syria, Jordan, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon and the GCC
states
The global arms industry can be expected to receive
a significant boost to sales, particularly in relation to
drones
Capital flight will detract from investment (and
therefore growth) in Iraq, but will benefit the
Lebanese and the Gulf states financial sectors
Intra-regional trade, investment, jobs and
remittances will all be adversely impacted, as will
tourism
Security spending, particularly in the hydrocarbon
sector, can be expected to increase not just in the
short term, but in the longer term too
Global energy prices will include an Iraq premium
in the near term at the least
Iran is set to benefit as its international rehabilitation
is speeded up
Perhaps most important, ISIS military
capabilities could be significantly boosted by the
capture of large numbers of Iraqi army vehicles,
weapons, and ammunition, as well as by the addition
of new recruits. At minimum, these gains will allow
the group to arm and equip more fighters, enhance
its mobility, and increase its firepower. This assumes
that ISIS is capable of recovering, integrating, and
Analysis of the Growing Strategic Threat of ISIS Rebellion in Iraq and Syria
maintaining the captured equipment. New videos have
shown the movement of such equipment into Syria,
and ISIS units in Iraq are already employing captured
Humvees and trucks; they could potentially employ
captured tanks and artillery as well. The effects of
these developments may soon be felt in Syria.
In 2014 World Bank address this issue and
quantify both the direct and indirect economic effects
of this war on the countries in the greater Levant
areaTurkey, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and
Egypt. The direct effect comes from the decline in
the size and skills of Syrias labour force due to loss
of life and refugee outflows, infrastructure
destruction, the trade embargo on Syria, cost-of-
doing-business increases, and a decline in productivity.
The results suggest that Syria and Iraq bears the brunt
of the direct war costs, losing 14% and 16% in per
capita welfare, respectively. The embargo on trade
with Syria is a major factor behind this countrys real
GDP decline, which is estimated at 30% and is much
larger than its per capita output decline of 13%, due
to the effect of Syrian refugees and war casualties
on the population count. All other Levant economies
lose in per capita terms, but not in aggregate terms
because the inflows of refugees boost population
numbers, and therefore aggregate consumption,
investment, and labour supply. The escalation of
transport costs is represented as deterioration in the
efficiency of shipping goods from each of the six
Levant economies. Oil exports from Syria are
assumed to decline dramatically (by 90%) due to a
combination of factors, including sanctions imposed
by the EU and the US and loss of infrastructure.
20% of Syrias physical capital has been destroyed -
a decline as large as the decline in Syrias labour
force. The decline in oil exports from Syria and Iraq
is offset by a corresponding increase in the production
of oil by the GCC countries so that the effect on the
world oil price is negligible. The embargo on trade
with Syria has been a major factor behind the
deterioration in Syrias per capita welfare, reducing
it by more than 15%, while capital destruction and
loss of workers are responsible for declines of more
than 5% and 7%, respectively. Syrias economy
shrinks by almost a third due to the massive outflow
of Syrian refugees and war casualties. By contrast,
Iraqs aggregate welfare loss of 11% is smaller than
its per capita welfare decline because a large number
115
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We Send Jihadis To Europe. Buzz Feed.
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We Send Jihadis To Europe. Buzz Feed.
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Ruskin, United for peace of pierce county, 01st, October 2014.
1)Islamic State Has 50,000 Fighters in Syria, Al Jazeera. 19
28)ISIS: Portrait of a Jihadi Terrorist OrganizationThe Meir
August 2014, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/
Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Centre, November,
islamic-state-50000-fighters-syria-2014819184258421392.html.
2014.http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20733/
2)Iraq: Hundreds Escape from Abu Ghraib Jail, Associated Press,
101_14_Ef_1329270214.pdf
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29)ISISs Financial and Military Capabilities Crethiplethi,
prison-attacks-kill-dozens.
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and-military-capabilities/islamic-countries/syria-islamic-countries/
4)http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-massacre-
2015/
strategy-107954.html
30)Paul Rivlin, Money makes the world go round, Iqtisadi: Vol.4,
5)https://www.ctc.usma.edu/v2/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/
No. 9 (Sept. 28, 2014) The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle
Vol1Iss3-Art5.pdf
Eastern and African Studies. dayan.org.
6)http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/islamic-
31)Barrett, The Islamic State, p. 50.
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32)Janes World Insurgency and Terrorism, Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)
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Wicktorovitcz.2005.Geneology-of-Radical-Islam.pdf
March 2014
8)https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/constructing-takfir-from-
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37)Winterton, Clare (25 June 2014). Why We Must Act When
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13)A social network launched in 2006. It is the largest in Europe
38)Susskind, Yifat (3 July 2014). Under Isis, Iraqi women again
and especially popular with Russian speakers. As of 2014, more
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Retrieved 17 July 2014.
14)A social network launched in 2010, unique in its user protection.
39)Det jag harbevittnat i al-Raqqakommeralltidfrfljamig (What
It allows the user to define a server for its material and also installs
I have witnessed in al-Raqqa will always haunt me). NyheterVrlden
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strict.
40)Mike, Giglio (27 June 2014). Fear of Sexual Violence Simmers
15)Sickening new ISIS video warns we will burn America and
in Iraq As ISIL Advances. BuzzFeed. Retrieved 9 July 2014.
threatens new 9/11-style attack,Anthony Bond, 13 April 2015,
41)Brekke, Kira (8 September 2014). ISIS Is Attacking Women,
Mirror,http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sickening-new-
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16)According to Al-Arabiya TV (October 3, 2014), ISIS took
42)Ivan Watson, Treated like cattle: Yazidi women sold, raped,
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enslaved by ISIS, CNN,30 October 2014
60,000 rifles and Scud surface-to-surface missile.
43)Amelia Smith, ISIS Publish Pamphlet On How to Treat Female
17)A British organization that identifies and tracks conventional
Slaves, Newsweek, 12 September 2014
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44)AbulTaher (13 December 2014). Our faith condones raping
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18) businessinsider.com.
45)Katharine Lackey, Pamphlet provides Islamic State guidelines
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by the author at the National Museum of Syria with an employee
syria.html
of the Directorate General of Antiquities and Museums (DGAM).
20)Syria destroys two warplanes used by ISIS to train fighter
The gentleman had been working in the governorate of Raqqa, in
pilots for terrorist airforce syriahr.com, October 22, 2014 http:/
eastern Syria, when armed groups were looting museums and
/www.syriahr.com/en/2014/10/syria-destroys-two-warplanes-used-
conducting illegal excavations of heritage sites.
by-isis-to-train-fighter-pilots-for-terrorist-airforce/
47)Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the
21)ISISs Financial and Military Capabilities Crethiplethi,The
Islamic State on the Levant ,Elena Ianchovichina, MarosIvanic,
Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Centre, 26 th
Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank Group, Middle East
November, 2014.
and North Africa Region, December 2014
22)Officials confirm ISIL present in Afghanistan, 13 February
eianchovichina@worldbank.org
2015.

116 World Focus February 2016

 Misconception of Islamic Terrorism in the World:
A Case of Daesh
Islamic Terrorism
According to the US Department of Defense
Publication, Terrorism is the unlawful use of or
threatened use of force or violence against individuals
or property to coerce or intimidate governments or
societies, often to achieve political, religious, or
ideological objectives. While terrorism is not an
Islamic phenomenon by its definition, it cannot be
ignored that the terrorist acts most of them in recent
years have been perpetrated in the name of Islam.
This fact has sparked a fundamental debate both in
the West as well as in the Muslim world regarding
the connection between these acts and the religious
teachings of Islam.1 Most analysts have identified
such acts with the bona fide teachings of Islam, one
of the worlds great religions; at the same time, others
have preferred to view these links as a misconception
about Islam and its teachings that is essentially based
on peace, love and tolerance. On the one hand,
Western leaders such as George W. Bush and Tony
Blair have reiterated time and again that the war
against terrorism has nothing to do with Islam. It is a
war against evil.2 At the same time, for Western
media, related to the Islam, bad news is good for
their business. The more non-Muslim world fears
from Islam, the more security threats are hyped, the
more attention they are getting. Islamic terrorism has
not posed as large a threat as reporters and the public
thinkcertainly not as large a threat as Al-Qaeda
and its affiliates intended.3 But it still left the question
of how a group that calls itself Daesh and uses
Islamic scripture to justify its actions can possibly be
described as Islamic. It was created during the US
occupation of Iraq and gaining the support during the
revolution against the Assads regime in Syria.4 In
June 2014, the group formally declared the
establishment of a caliphate a state governed in
accordance with Islamic law, or Sharia, or Caliph.
It has demanded that Muslims across the world swear
allegiance to its leader Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-
Badri al-Samarrai, better known as Abu Bakr al-
Baghdadi and migrate to territory under its control.
Misconception of Islamic Terrorism in the World: A Case of Daesh
Dr. Saleem Ahmad
Daesh seeks to eradicate obstacles to restoring Gods
rule on Earth and to defend the Muslim community,
or Umma, against infidels and apostates. Daesh
members are militant jihadists who adhere to an
extreme interpretation of Sunni Islam and consider
themselves the only true believers. They hold that
the rest of the world is made up of unbelievers who
seek to destroy Islam, justifying attacks against other
Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Beheadings,
crucifixions and mass shootings have been used to
terrorize their enemies. Daesh members have
justified such atrocities by citing the Quran and
Hadith, but the majority of the Muslims world has
strongly denounced them.5 In Iran, the official media
persists in asserting that Daesh is a Western
fabrication. They operate as a tool of the White
House, the lyse, Buckingham Palace, and Tel Aviv,
with funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and
their servants Turkey and Jordan, and carry out the
plans of the United States of America. According to
Pew Research that publishes annual reports of
attitudes in 10 Muslim majority countries, they were
overwhelmingly negative towards Daesh. It found
that 99% of Lebanese and 94% of Jordanians, for
instance, held very unfavourable views of the group.
Even in Saudi Arabia, a country whose Wahabi creed
is seen as a source of jihadism, there is little
indulgence: in a face to face poll in September 2015
sponsored by the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy, a think tank, a scant 4% of Saudi respondents
expressed any degree of support for Daesh.6
Misconception
The question of whether Daesh, or popularly known
as the Islamic State, really Islamic is a complex one.
But it is very important to understand so that people
can make decisions based upon the facts rather than
feelings; because this question is the foundation of
this critical debate which is taking place now and how
Muslims fit into the broader fabric of Western
conspiracies. William Mc Cants, a fellow in
Brookingss Center for Middle East Policy, argues
117
that Daesh sees itself as more faithful to the Islamic
scripture than other Muslims, and they have got
religious scholars in their ranks and who are able to
make finely crafted arguments to that end. Its
commitment to what it sees as the correct
interpretation of Islam. But that does not mean
Daeshs interpretation of Islam is correct, of course,
and sometimes when it goes against widespread
understandings of Islam, it is not out of ignorance,
and it is exactly the point. They want to restore the
early Islamic Empire called the Caliphate and
eventually take over the whole world. But that is not
possible in near future.7 As Sunni Muslims, particularly
of the ultra-conservative variety, they believe that the
Caliphate is required in order to properly implement
Islamic law and Islamic governance. They consider
other systems of governance, even if there is a Muslim
sitting at the top, as illegitimate as long as the
Caliphate is absent. Daesh justifies all of its actions
by citing Islamic scriptures and the example of
Prophet Mohammed. The leader or Caliph at the
top of the organization is a scholar of the Quran; he
has a Doctorate in the field of Islamic Studies. He
knows Islamic scripture. As for the foot soldiers, most
of them do not know a lot about the Islamic scripture,
but that does not necessarily mean they are not
attracted to the religious message which Daesh is
preaching.8 It has been argued that many of the
Muslims from different countries joining Daesh for
a variety of reasons, and primarily, they are attracted
to the religious message of Daesh. In fact, it has
made good on its promise to rebuild Gods Kingdom
on Earth. This recruitment pitch has been especially
powerful among foreign Muslims, particularly younger
Muslims what it takes to excite a young person to
leave his family, leave his friends, leave his job and
travel abroad, the idea that the world is coming to an
end at any moment and that you want to be fighting
on the side of God as everything comes crashing down
can be a very powerful motivator. Scholars have
argued that Daeshs claim to have re-established
the Caliphate is illegitimate because they did not
consult with the leaders or religious scholars. They
just did this by their own decree and saying that
Daesh sees itself as more faithful to scripture than
other Muslims.9
The self-proclaimed Daesh is a militant
movement that has conquered territory in western
118 World Focus February 2016
Iraq and eastern Syria, where it has made a bid to
establish a state in territories that encompass some
six and a half million residents. In June 2014, after
seizing territories in Iraqs Sunni heart land, including
the cities of Mosul and Tikrit, claimed exclusive
political and theological authority over the worlds
Muslims. Its state-building project, however, has been
characterized more by extreme violence, justified by
references to the Quran. Its claim to be a Caliphate
has raised concerns that its ambitions have no
geographic limits, and a series of attacks in France
highlighted its ability to strike beyond its territorial
base.10 First it was Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant or Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, with the
Levant and Syria referring to a region stretching from
southern Turkey through Syria to Egypt. Then in June
2014, the group renamed itself Islamic State,
suggesting its ambitions to be a worldwide Caliphate
rather than just in the West Asian region. Now they
are claiming to represent all Muslims everywhere in
the world and they have declared the establishment
of a new Caliphate. A fourth name, Daesh is now
gaining favour. It is a loose acronym of Al- Dawla
al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham but sounds like the
Arabic words Daes (one who crushes something
underfoot) and Dahes (one who sows discord).
According to The Guardian, the acronym has even
become an Arabic word in its own right, with its plural
Dawaish meaning bigots who impose their views
on others.11 Daeshs victories in Iraq and Syria,
which have been broadcast around the world by an
effective social-media strategy, have attracted more
sympathizers across the globe. Islamic States new
brand of Islam is novel for many countries where it is
trying to expand its sphere of influence by portraying
the distorted image of Islam.12
Is it really Islamic?
Calling it Islamic is a form of recognition that this
group has never dreamed of and which no Muslim
country, not even the governments perceived to
sympathize with it, has ever bestowed on it. Calling
it a State is another recognition that is totally out of
place and surely outright illegal. It calls itself the
Islamic State in order to draw legitimacy from the
religion of Islam which over a billion people across
the world embrace willingly and happily, but is it really
Islamic? Does it subscribe to any heavenly value?
Can any religion on earth condone or tolerate the
barbaric acts that Daesh perpetrates every day?
Many Muslim feels that referring to Daesh as
Islamic is an insult to them, and their religion which
preaches peace and fear of God.13 Consequently, the
Muslim world recognizes that terrorism committed in
the name of Islam must be confronted on all fronts,
the first of which is theologically. There are clerics
out there who provided them with the necessary
theological justification to go out and recruit young
and inexperienced youth to perpetrate atrocious
terrorist acts. We live in a dangerous world and where
media is the number one source of information for
most of the people. Ordinary people take anything
they hear in the media as true. Therefore, the media
must act with the responsibility. They must use the
right terminology for events and concepts.14
On the contrary, there is no doubt that the
Islamic State is Islamic. Militant jihadists use Islamic
rhetoric, symbols, and concepts in the construction
of their ideology. They endlessly debate fine intricacies
of Islamic theology. They direct their arguments at
Muslim audiences and seek new recruits from among
Muslims. They invoke the Quran, quote the Hadiths
of Muhammad, and find bases for their beliefs in the
jurisprudence of Islamic law. They claim to be Muslims
indeed, the only true Muslims and they explicitly claim
that their religion motivates, inspires, and even
commands them to commit their horrific acts of
violence.15 They believe that Islam has a great deal
to do with their behaviour. Some scholars have argued
that the clash between rival interpretations of Islam
should be seen as a civil war within the Islamic
world jihadists, Islamists, traditionalists, and
reformers all attempting to pull Islam in different
directions. Islam has become entwined with the
politics of countries and militant jihadists have invented
theological justifications to attack their enemies.
Jihadist ideology ultimately seeks the dominance of
its new brand of Islam over the world.16
Palestinian writer Edward Said, among
others, has insistently pointed out that Islam holds
very different meaning for different people. The
religion is as heterogeneous as those who believe and
follow it.17 You may hear about Islamic State, but
make no mistake: The militants refer to themselves
as members of Daesh. It is essential to emphasize
the people to make distinction between Islam and
Misconception of Islamic Terrorism in the World: A Case of Daesh
Islamic terrorists. It is also essential to acknowledge
that there are portions of the Islamic texts that are
used by these groups to justify mass murder in the
name of Allah and for the propagation of their
fabricated faith. It seems that people see no
connection between the acts of terror and the
terrorists interpretation of Islamic teaching and
Sharia law.18 There are radicalized group of Muslims
that pick and choose portions of the religious texts,
interpreting them as instructions to pursue jihad and
impose their religion on the whole world. Killing of
infidels is to these extremists a religious obligation
that will gain them a rewarding life in Jannat
(Heaven). The overwhelming majority of Muslims
do not hold these beliefs. We must encourage Muslim
leaders to show the world that these groups represent
an antiquated and inhumane interpretation of Islam.
These leaders need to loudly and dramatically speak
for the hundreds of millions of Muslims who worship
a peaceful, merciful and loving God.19
Moreover, almost 70,000 Muslim clerics have
come together to pass a fatwa against global terrorist
organizations, including the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and the
militant group that calls itself the Daesh. During an
annual gathering of South Asian Sunni Muslims in
the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, they wanted to
spread the message that they do not consider groups
like the Daesh to be true Islamic organizations nor
do they view members of these organizations as
Muslims. This terror group has killed far more Muslims
than Christians, westerners or any other religious
community. It is a terror group with political
ambitions.20 Daisy Khan, Director of the Womens
Islamic Initiative for Spirituality and Equality, told
CNN that there is nothing Islamic in anything they
[ISIS] say. They are psychopaths, adding that they
have caused huge problems for the Muslim
community. Politicians have to stop portraying the
Muslim community as a national security threat, as
a result; they feed into the hands of Daesh.
Although it can be persuasively argued that Daesh
is an aberration of Islam and its first aim is to recreate
the Caliphate of Baghdad that is, make it into a single,
theocratic, one world government, as proposed by
many devout Muslims. Muslims who say this has
nothing to do with Islam are simply trying to liberate
their consciences to say they disagree with them.
They disagree is fine, but to say Daesh is not
119
representing Islam is wrong. They have misused
fundamentals of the Islamic tradition, sometimes
clearly taking instructions from the Quran, such as
when they kill a non-believer.21 Therefore, Daesh
members are using religion to advance a political
vision, rather than using politics to advance a religious
vision. To give themselves a bit more legitimacy, they
use Islam as their justification. It is not about religion,
its about identity . . . You identify with the victims,
[with] the guys being killed by your enemies. Religion,
according to this view, plays a role not as a driver of
behavior but as a vehicle for outrage and, crucially, a
marker of identity. Religion is important in the sense
that it happens to define your identity, and not
because you are more pious than anybody else.22
The origins of Daesh as a terror group lie not in this
or that Islamic book or school of thought, but in the
slaughter of Sunnis in Iraq since the decline of the
former President Saddam Hussein. In April 2013,
when there was a peaceful Sunni demonstration
asking the Shia led Maliki government in Baghdad
to reapportion to the various provinces what the
government was getting in oil revenues, Iraqi security
forces shot into the crowds. That was the start of
this current insurrection.23
Islam v/s Western Media
In the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist
attacks on the US, the threat of militant terrorism has
taken center stage in the Western media. Often Islam
is the target and the subject of accusation and mainly
if some terrorists from the West Asian countries, who
hold Muslim names. Then media for a deliberate
reason or another rushes and start accusing Islam
and Muslims whether it is due to the lack of
knowledge, about what is Islam? Or who are the
Muslims or to distort the image of Islam to the world
in general and the Western people in particular. There
is a difference between Islams ideology and between
people using Islam as cover to hide the other face of
theirs. A lot of people have struggled to come up with
a definition.24 Walter Leguaure wrote in his book
International Terrorism, that the aspects of terrorism
in the use of extraordinary violence... have goals and
objectives beyond the creation and destruction, injury
and death... the aim of terror is its psychological
impact on individuals. In a certain time, different
groups, organizations and persons and at their action,
causes circumstances, and what feelings and emotions
120 World Focus February 2016
people, writers, journalist had toward those people.
Emotion profoundly affects the response to terrorism,
for a large portion of the audience such violent
behaviour is beyond their experience and
understanding. For those people terrorism is abhorrent,
abnormal and psychotic. For others, terrorists are
heroes, liberators of their country: The success of
the movements has overshadowed their violence....the
once feared revolutionary terrorists have become in
some cases respectable and in some instances,
national heroes and international cult figures. But,
Terrorism is as old as mankind. It can be traced down
to Greek and Roman periods. Terrorism from below
has emerged in many different forms as religious,
protest movement, political, revolts and social
uprising. According to the Islamic scripture, human
blood is sacred, in any case, and cannot be spilled
without justification. Human life is very valuable; it
was created and not to be killed. If anyone violates
this sanctity of human life by killing a soul, without
justification, the Quran equals it to the killing of the
entire mankind. Islam grants everyone a total freedom
but also it does not deny others their freedom.
Freedom of religion, the right to be what you want to
be as Quran says: Let there be no compulsion in
religion, truth stands out clear from error, whoever
rejects evil and believes in God has the strongest bond
that never breaks and God knows and hears all
things.25
Islamic terrorism, for various reasons, has
been questioned in academic sphere. Western
scholars and media frequently use Islamic terrorism
to mean acts of violence perpetrated by Muslims in
the name of Islam. For example, the recent Paris
attacks on 13 November 2015 constitutes Islamic
terrorism since they were allegedly committed by
Muslims and the suspects belong to a militant
organization, Daesh, adds fervour to calling it Islamic
terrorism. The perpetrators are Sunni, Shia, Wahabi,
or even non-practicing Muslims. But western media
brands such violence as Islamic terrorism.
Interestingly, Islam and terrorism are correlated only
when violence is committed against Western targets
or unleashed inside a Western nation, such as the
attacks in France. Within a day, France launched
massive airstrikes against Daesh targets in Syria and
Iraq.26 It is still unclear as to how many innocent
people have been killed in these airstrikes. Whenever
a terror attack occurs in a Western nation, Muslim
communities are placed under instant surveillance.
Suspect houses are raided. Suspect persons are
detained. Muslim men are profiled. Muslim women
are harassed. Mosques are infiltrated. Even Muslim
doctors, engineers, lawyers, accountants, mothers at
home, and Muslim children in school feel the pressure
of omnipresent culpability. Western politicians,
journalists, and terrorism experts begin to attack Islam,
even if perpetrators are not practicing Muslims.27 In
the Western media, their leaders have frequently
argued that Not all Muslims are terrorists, but all
terrorists are Muslims. And more interestingly, even
some reasonable people have uttered this statement.
And that comment is often followed up by the question:
Why do not we see Christian, Buddhist, or Jewish
terrorists? Obviously, there are people who sincerely
view themselves as Muslims who have committed
horrible acts in the name of Islam. But in reality, their
actions are not based on any part of their faith but on
their own political interests. According to a 2013 poll
by the Pew Research Center, Muslims around the
world strongly reject violence in the name of Islam,
including overwhelming majorities that reject suicide
bombing, by any reasonable measure, Muslims are
not terrorists but western media deliberately trying to
portray all the Muslims of the world as terrorist?28
Consequently, Muslim nations have attacked the
Western media for wrongly associating Islam with
terrorism at the international conference in Geneva
organized by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation
in June 2013 as part of the US-Turkish led Istanbul
Process. A central theme of the conference was
how to balance freedom of speech with freedom of
religion. At the conference, Indonesia stated that
freedom of speech is not absolute, and it must come
with restrictions based on legitimate grounds. Mr.
Taskin Soykan, an adviser on combating intolerance
and discrimination against Muslims, says that freedom
of religion is sacrosanct but not absolute, and that
individuals have responsibilities in exercising the
right.29 Ambassador mr Orhun, the Permanent
Representative of Turkey to the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, regretted the
use of the term Islamic terrorism by the Western
media following terrorist attacks. There is no such
thing as Islamic terrorism, he said. The US
Ambassador Michael G. Kozak responded that
terrorists are often labeled as such in Western
Misconception of Islamic Terrorism in the World: A Case of Daesh
countries precisely because this is what they term
themselves. Most Islamic terrorists are self-
proclaimed as such. To successfully disassociate Islam
from terrorism, the OIC would need to address such
issues. The OIC Secretary-General Ekmeleddin
Ihsanoglu commented on how the western media can
unfairly distort perceptions on both sides. Western
media tends to highlight the reaction of radical Imams
and their fellow religious fundamentalists, while
Muslims worldwide are exposed exclusively to follow
the teachings of the Quran.30 As Graham Fuller once
argued, even without Islam, world politics would have
been facing similar scenarios. Islam or no Islam, there
are enough reasons within the functioning of the
international system that require its urgent reform or
a complete change. Those who are the least affected
by the global system of injustice are looking for
reasons outside and, most conveniently, in Islam and
Islamic societies which have constituted the largest
religious political community. Muslims look at the
current state of politics, both at the domestic and
international levels, very differently indeed and very
critically. In the wake of Daesh, political Islam is
failing or retreating in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen,
Iraq and Syria.31 It may be too early to say that
Daesh is replacing political Islam, but it has certainly
posed the most serious intellectual challenge to
political Islam whose proponents have to respond to
many ugly questions, which have been ignored by
them so far. By focusing debate on Islam and its
religious texts and then linking Muslims actions to
these texts, as in the case of Daesh, we are caught
in an unstoppable cycle of traps. Daesh is not just a
group of some miscreants. It is an idea against the
ongoing politics in Iraq and Syria. A fight against
Daesh will have to win both territory as well as the
trust of the people influenced by its propaganda.32
Moreover, in a radio address to the nation, President
Obama reminded US citizens that Terrorists like
Daesh are trying to divide us along lines of religion.
That is how they stoke fear. That is how they recruit,
he warned. He urged the West, as well as the Muslim
world, not to allow the extremists to turn this into a
religious war, as doing so would hurt all. And just as
Muslims around the world have to keep rejecting any
twisted interpretation of Islam, all of us have to reject
bigotry in all of its forms. Terrorist attacks in San
Bernardino and in Paris have increased anti-Muslim
feelings in the West. The US President Obama noted
121
 2
that at a recent rally in Texas a woman was carrying Ibid.,
3
a sign saying, We love our Muslim neighbors. We http://chronicle.com/article/WhereAreAlltheIslamic/
are all part of the same American family. It is a 128443/
4
message all of us can deliver parents to our children, https://theintercept.com/2014/09/26/isisislamic/
5
teachers to their students, leaders in politics and http://www.bbc.com/news/worldmiddleeast29052144
6
business and entertainment.33 What Muslims think of Islamic State,The
Economist,Nov 25th 2015,Cairo
7
Conclusion Jennifer Williams, (2015),How ISIS uses and abuses
In a nut shell, we can see that western media and Islam,Vox
8
their leaders continuously try to portray the Ibid.,
9
Ibid.,
misconception of Islamic terrorism and they have 10
http://www.cfr.org/iraq/islamicstate/p14811
deliberately linked Islam with this notorious term, 11
h t t p : / / w w w. t h e w e e k . c o . u k / i s i s / 6 2 4 2 2 /
terrorism, and the public opinion is mobilizing against
islamicstatedaeshorisisthedilemmaofnamingthemilitants
the religious teachings of Islam. Now the Islamic 12
http://www.rand.org/blog/2015/06/
terrorism has become a threat to the world peace islamicstatesglobalexpansion.html
and efforts are being made to encounter this 13
https://www.opendemocracy.net/arabawakening/
collectively. While Islam that is known as a religion hamidalialkifaey/islamicstatethatisnt
of peace and tolerance now it has become axis of 14
Ibid.,
evil that is responsible for terrorists activities in the 15
http://thefederalist.com/2015/02/26/
western countries. Some scholars have argued that isislamaterroristreligion/
this war is just between Islam and Christianity. But 16
Ibid.,
one must remember that western countries have 17
http://americanhumanist.org/humanism/
exploited the term Islamic terrorism to fulfill their own Islam_and_Terrorism:_a_Humanist_View
political interests and as long as their interests are 18
http://www.wsj.com/articles/call-islamic-terrorism-by-its-
there they will use this term in future to fulfill their name-1449792556
19
vested interests. Now come to the Islamic State, in Ibid.,
20
fact, they are the followers of Islam but they have h t t p : / / w w w. h u f f i n g t o n p o s t . c o m / e n t r y /
nothing to do with the teachings of Islam. Are they muslimclericscondemnterrorism_
not true Muslims or their teachings are not based 566adfa1e4b009377b249dea?section=i
21
upon the Holy Quran and Hadiths. Like western h t t p : / / w w w. n c r e g i s t e r. c o m / d a i l y n e w s /
countries, Daesh has its own political agenda and howislamicareislamicterrorists/
22
vested interests and it is simply using Islam to fulfill http://www.newstatesman.com/worldaffairs/2015/03/
their own interests. Both Daesh as well as western mehdihasanhowislamicislamicstate
23
countries is deliberately distorting the sacred image Ibid.,
24
of Islam and its teachings just for the sake of their http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/
1989/RT.htm
political interests by playing dirty politics in the Muslim 25
Ibid.,
countries of the West Asia region. In a word, politics 26
h t t p : / / w w w. c o u n t e r p u n c h . o r g / 2 0 1 5 / 1 1 / 1 9 /
is based upon the issues and without issues there is
sickoverreactionstoislamicterrorism/
no politics. In international politics, issues are created 27
Ibid.,
and suppressed according to their interests like Al- 28
http://thefederalist.com/2015/02/26/isislamaterrorist
Qaida and now Islamic terrorism has become one of religion/
the big terrible issues in international politics. 29
http://www.unwatch.org/freespeechandfreedomof
Consequently, the issue of Islamic terrorism is serving religiondebatedatoicledmeeting/
the interests of Daesh as well as western countries 30
Ibid.,
and this war will be continued in future. 31
Omair Anas, (2015), How not to fight against terrorism,
Daily Sabah, 14/12/2015
End Notes: 32
Ibid.,
1
http://www.hoover.org/research/religioussourcesislamic 33
http://www.dawn.com/news/1226016/print/print
terrorism

122 World Focus February 2016

 Nuclear Terrorism in the Indian Subcontinent
Terrorism is a term with no agreed definition
among governments or academicians, but is almost
used exclusively in a pejorative sense, to describe
life-threatening actions perpetrated by politically
motivated self-appointed sub-state groups.1 A more
accurate definition has been proffered by the
International Institute for Strategic Studies, London:
terrorism is the use of violence, often against people
not directly involved in a conflict, by groups operating
clandestinely, which generally claim to have high
political or religious purposes, and believe that
creating a climate of terror will assist attainment of
their objectives.2 Briefly, nuclear terrorism involves
the actual or potential use of nuclear materials to
generate fear, while in pursuit of political goals.3
Public interest in matters of terrorism grew
substantially in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist
attacks and it was widely acknowledged that the world
is facing a so-called new terrorism. According to
David Carlton, the old terrorism of 1960s and 1970s
only emphasized the territorial grievances and their
operations tended to focus on limited geographical
areas. Their methods, albeit ruthless, were not
intended to maximise bloodshed, as they wanted many
people watching rather than many people dead. On
the other hand, the new terrorists are nihilistic,
inspired by fanatical religious beliefs and are willing
to seek martyrdom through suicide. They rarely set
out aims that appear remotely attainable, give no
warnings and do not engage in bargaining and
compromise. They are willing and eager to carry out
mass slaughter of non-combatants and they
frequently do not claim responsibility for their deeds,
as they feel ultimately accountable to their own
understanding of God.4 With the possibility of mass
slaughter, how real could be the threat of WMD
(more specifically, nuclear) terrorism in the 21st
century, especially in an area infested with (new)
terroristic activities, such as the Indian subcontinent?
Furthermore, what steps could be taken to prevent
the catastrophe resulting from the probable
Nuclear Terrorism in the Indian Subcontinent
Souradeep Sen
achievement and detonation of WMDs by fanatical,
terroristic elements within the Indian Subcontinent?
By Indian subcontinent, the present paper
would refers to the area enclosed by the two most
important territorial rivals of South Asia India and
Pakistan. The paper would first try to understand
nuclear terrorism and is followed by an analysis of
how real is the threat of nuclear terrorism in the Indian
subcontinent. This would involve brief delineation of
theoretical understandings of the prospects of nuclear
terrorism in the region; the ground realities of nuclear
safety and security adopted by both India and
Pakistan; also incorporating the voices of analysts
who feel that nuclear terrorism in the subcontinent is
a remote possibility. The paper would also analyse
the prospects of nuclear theft and terrorism in case
of a deterrence failure and conventional conflicts in
the subcontinent. The conclusion of the paper would
focus on the recommendations of diverse groups of
academics and policy-makers on the prevention of
nuclear terrorism in the subcontinent.
Nuclear Terrorism: Definition and Dimensions
As has been mentioned in the introduction, nuclear
terrorism involves the actual or potential use of
nuclear materials to generate fear, while in pursuit of
political goals. The definition of nuclear terrorism
discounts the mention of state terrorism as in practice
states are unlikely to sponsor terrorism involving
WMDs, since loss of control over terrorists in control
of WMDs would have adverse consequences for
them.5 Nuclear terrorism could involve the use of
stolen nuclear weapons or weapons manufactured
from fissile materials such as highly enriched uranium
(HEU) and plutonium obtained from military or civilian
sources. It may also involve the deliberate leaking of
radioactive materials from dirty bombs, leading to
radiological contamination; and it can also be caused
by sabotaging a nuclear reactor or facility to cause
unacceptable deaths by contamination.6 Nuclear
weapons are the most destructive among WMDs.
123
With the rise of terrorism as a political phenomenon
since 1945, analysts have grappled with the question
of what horrors such individuals and groups with
malcontent might produce?
The zenith of new terrorism was reached
with the 9/11 New York attacks. As the Director
General of the IAEA, Mohamed El Baradei warned
that it made the scenario of terrorists targeting nuclear
facilities far more likely and it is imperatives for the
states to cooperate to stop them as radiation knows
no frontiers.7 There was a growing fear that the al-
Qaeda was engaged in an effort to acquire nuclear
weapons, which made the world focus on the area
adjacent Pakistan and India. Both countries, by then
had developed nuclear programs, and both have been
plagued by conflicts, terrorism and political
instabilities. There were some notions regarding the
acquisition by al-Qaeda, of fissile materials from the
subcontinent, or an attack on its nuclear installations
as retaliation against the decision of India and Pakistan
to join the US-led war on terror.8 While nothing of
that sort happened, we still cannot discount the threat
of nuclear terrorism to the region.
The range of possible terrorist actions
pertaining to nuclear/radiological materials in the
subcontinent is wide: a) a hoax threatening a nuclear
explosion or the release of radioactivity in populated
areas; b) the takeover of a nuclear plant or seizure of
materials during transportation, followed by the threat
of a radioactive release; c) the release of radioactivity
in an isolated area as a warning of impending damage
at a higher level; d) an attack on nuclear materials
during transportation so as to cause a release of
radioactivity; e) a radiological attack on symbolic
targets with a relative immediate impact; f) a
radiological attack on industrial targets; g) a
radiological attack on government centres and military
targets; h) a conventional attack on a nuclear reactor
or a waste storage/disposal site; i) a nuclear explosion
aimed at any of the aforementioned targets. The
actual physical damage may range from non-existent
to horrific, but the ends of terrorism would be realised
that of creating terror in the minds of people.9
The motive of a terrorist to go nuclear has
been a matter of scholastic debate throughout the
world. Switching to nuclear terrorism for mass
124 World Focus February 2016
annihilation does appear to have serious rational
constraints, such as the difficulty of establishing mass
slaughter as an acceptable strategy. Nuclear terrorist
threats have been rare, but the indicators of trends
toward new terrorism and its penchant for mass
killings warn of an augmented risk of nuclear
terrorism.10 Terrorist groups are now more tech-
savvy than before and there is a steady supply of
nuclear materials illegitimately, not to mention
unsecured storage of radioactive materials in some
facilities. Most importantly, the bane of religion-based
terrorism is often accompanied with higher levels of
violence as their ultimate audience is not the
government or the people, but God! The biggest threat
comes from megalomaniacal hyper-terrorists, who
dream of altering the course of world history by their
singular acts of violence.11 Osama bin Laden, being
the greatest example of this cult, whose The Nuclear
Bomb of Islam exhorted Muslims to perform their
sacred duty and prepare as much force as possible
to terrorize the enemies of God: a statement which
might be construed to mean acquisition and detonation
of WMDs in the name of religion.12
The Probability of Nuclear Terrorism in the
Indian Subcontinent
Being an aspect of new terrorism, it might seem
plausible that nuclear terrorism is a thing of the future.
A single successful act of nuclear terrorism could
have far reaching consequences nationally and
globally. For Leventhal and Chellaney, if risks can be
calculated as probability-time consequence (the low
probability of nuclear terrorism is multiplied by the
astronomical consequence of a successful act) the
risk of nuclear terrorism is burgeoning, especially with
respect to increases in nuclear weapons, materials
and facilities and the rise of global terrorism.13 All
these aspects lead us to focus on the Indian
subcontinent and analyse how real is threat of nuclear
terrorism within this area?
The Indian subcontinent ranks as the most
terrorism-infested region in the world, followed by
the Middle East and Western Europe. This, along with
the regions growing nuclear prowess have placed
onus on both India and Pakistan to adopt effective
policies to counter nuclear terrorism threats. The
menace of terrorism has grown not only in intensity,
but has affected newer regions, becoming more
technologically advanced. Terrorists are looking for
ever bigger and more dramatic acts to draw regional
and global attention. The Indian subcontinent is a
region where terrorists are sophisticated in their
strikes, weaponry and strategy. Combating this
menace has become the biggest political challenge to
the respective leaderships of India and Pakistan.
Trends since 1987 suggest that there is indeed the
growing danger of atomic blackmail and terrorism in
the subcontinent, which is home to about a fifth of
the worlds population.14 In order to understand the
risks, the paper would focus first on the theoretical
side of the debate. Theoretically, the strengths of
terrorism in the subcontinent and the prospects of
nuclear terrorism in the region could be discussed.
For Leventhal and Chellaney15, in the Indian
subcontinent, terrorist groups derive strengths from
five important factors: a) The ability of groups to work
across national frontiers; b) Technological
sophistication; c) State sponsorship of terror; d) Drug-
dealing for gathering resources; e) Martyrdom for
terroristic activities. These aspects of terrorism in
the subcontinent make it all the more imperative to
closely monitor shipments of nuclear materials,
rigorous surveillance of nuclear facilities and
installation of upgraded anti-sabotaging systems to
deter atomic terrorism. Theoretically again, the risks
of nuclear terrorism in the subcontinent appear high,
due to three important reasons, according to Leventhal
and Chellaney16: a) The extreme, civilian-targeted
nature of terrorism; b) Availability of portable weapon
systems; c)The internationalization of domestic
terrorism.
According to experts, resort to nuclear
terrorism might be a tempting proposition to old
terrorist groups, as a means of their resurgence. The
longer they have operated underground, the more
brutal they tend to become and the greater is their
desperation to attract international attention. Such
terrorists might not have any qualms in attacking or
sabotaging nuclear facilities or resorting to WMD
usages.17 To sum up, Leventhal and Chellaney have
cited four reasons for nuclear terrorism in the
subcontinent: a) the rapidly expanding nuclear
programmes of India and Pakistan; b) their growing
stockpiles of nuclear material; c) the enduring problem
Nuclear Terrorism in the Indian Subcontinent
of terrorism faced by both countries; d) the increasing
tactical sophistication of terrorists.18
So much for the theoretical part of the
debate, the focus should now shift to the ground
realities of nuclear safety and security in the
subcontinent. If we make a comparative analysis of
the extent of nuclear safety levels adopted by India
and Pakistan, we get a more reassuring picture. But,
the question of nuclear theft and sabotage in the case
of conventional conflicts must be discussed
subsequently to complete the analysis of the actual
threats of nuclear terrorism. But, first the measures
adopted by the countries to prevent nuclear terrorism:
a) Prevention of nuclear terrorism in Pakistan: The
security of Pakistans nuclear facilities was a matter
of concern for the USA in the aftermath of the 9/11
attacks. The most feared scenario was the abdication
of nuclear warheads by pro-Taliban forces within the
country. There were various perceptions of insecurity,
mostly involving ex-Soviet nuclear scientists, the ISI
and the Pakistan Army. There were unconfirmed
reports of the al-Qaeda being close to achieving
nuclear status. The government was quick to take
note of such reports and assured the international
community that its nuclear installations were safe and
additional measures have been introduced after 9/11.
Historically, after Musharrafs coup in 1999, the
control and decision-making of nuclear facilities went
to the army and the small size of Pakistans nuclear
arsenal makes it easy for the army to maintain
centralized control over it.19 Pakistans main uranium
enrichment facilities at Kahuta, Sihala and Golra, along
with plutonium extraction sites at Nilhore and Khusab
in central Punjab and its two important nuclear power
plants, one at Karachi and the other at Chasma are
all under stringent military surveillance. Nuclear
weapons and fissile materials are stored near military
bases which insulates it from direct attacks from
extremist elements. Pakistans nuclear weapons are
neither operational nor on high alert and are kept in
unassembled form, with the components stored
separately. Most experts view this arrangement as a
security measure against theft and unauthorized use.
However, adequate security is required in case of
assembling the weapons during conventional conflict
to counter theft and unauthorized use by terrorists,
during conventional war between Pakistan and
India.20
125
 Not much is known about the transportation
of nuclear weapon components and fissile/radioactive
materials in Pakistan. A National Command Authority
has been set up to control and manage nuclear
programme and check the possibility of unauthorised
use of nuclear weapons. In January 2001, the Pakistan
Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) was
established for control, regulation and supervision of
all aspects of nuclear safety and radiation protection.21
After 9/11, all these measures were reviewed by the
government. The existing security measures at
nuclear installations were reinforced; nuclear
materials were transported under high security to
different locations, as the government was fearful of
air raids on nuclear installations. The PNRA
streamlined nuclear disaster management in 2002. In
spite of these measures, analysts have been sceptical
of Pakistans ability to maintain credible security for
nuclear installations due to its volatile political and
economic conditions.
The track record of the Pakistani polity shows
repeated failures to establish enduring and credible
political institutions. 22 These problems were
accentuated by a sagging economy in the 1990s.
Religious extremism began to develop against the
backdrop of political uncertainties and deteriorating
socio-economic conditions. Although Islamic political
parties and groups always existed in Pakistan, the
political vacuum only led to the strengthening of these
groups. Pakistani and Afghan Islamic groups gained
strength as material resources became available to
them (mainly from the US CIA and Saudi Arabia)
for bolstering their armed resistance to Soviet troops
in Afghanistan (1979-89). The Pakistani military
authorities, especially the ISI, developed strong
linkages with Afghan and Pakistani Islamic groups
during the Afghan war period. They continued with
this relationship after the withdrawal of Soviet troops
from Afghanistan to help spread terror in India.23 The
military government turned its back on the Taliban in
Afghanistan and the extremist Islamic groups in
Pakistan after 9/11. It was in this context that they
vowed to dislodge the Pakistan government and began
to engage in violence in different parts of the country
in order to undermine the credibility of the government
and derail the economy.24
b) Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism in India: Militancy
and violence have been constant features of the
126 World Focus February 2016
Indian political landscape. The process of uneven
economic development has been accompanied by
relentless struggles among a plethora of social groups
for an adequate share of a relatively small economic
pie. While much attention has been given to the
Islamic threat in recent years, the Indian experience
has encompassed a wide variety of terrorist and
similar violent threats. Notably, the secessionist
movement in Kashmir has drawn support from the
Pakistan government, and attracted a large number
of non-Kashmiris, who have given it an increasingly
Islamic-fundamentalist character.25 How serious are
these threats from the standpoint of nuclear terrorism?
To date, most of the violent movements in India have
localized interests and have not shown an inclination
toward indiscriminate mass violence. But, the day
after the 9/11 attacks in the United States, Sheikh
Jamil-ur-Rehman, leader of the Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen,
a terrorist group active in Kashmir, vowed to attack
nuclear facilities in India.26
Indias AEC stands at the apex of an
extensive nuclear infrastructure that incorporates
warhead manufacture, electrical power production,
fuel fabrication and reprocessing, waste management,
mining, research, and medical and industrial
applications. The physical security of nuclear
installations is managed by an independent body, the
Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) under the
Ministry of Home Affairs. A study by Prof. Chari
notes that the Indian Army provides air defense cover,
security is strict, and access control is maintained
through physical barriers and electronic systems.28
But, no security system is foolproof. Numerous cases
of theft have occurred over the years. For instance,
in July 1998, the CBI recovered over 8 kilograms of 29
natural uranium stolen from the IGCAR in Chennai.
Besides, it is difficult to ensure security over materials
that are outside the control of the CISF, such as
radiological sources in the possession of hospitals and
industries. In July 2002, a gamma radiography camera
containing iridium-192 with a radioactive strength of
19.7 curie was stolen during transportation in the
north-eastern state of Assam. A disturbing aspect of
the incident was that the camera, a highly radioactive
device (a potential dirty bomb), was left unlocked in
the trunk of a public bus in a region plagued by terrorist
activity. 30 It is also known that terrorists have
periodically penetrated zones of high-level military
security since 2001-02, and such incidents illustrate
the relative ease with which high-security areas
penetrated by small numbers of determined
terrorists.31 Moreover, intelligence officials disclosed
that at least three of the six Army ammunition dump
fires in India (2001-02) were caused by sabotage.32
There have been security breaches during Indias 1998
nuclear tests, not to mention the infiltration of the
high-security zone of the Indian Parliament by armed
terrorists in December 2001.
Notwithstanding these lapses, the security
establishment in India points out that, Indian nuclear
plants are characterized by a high level of built-in
safety, which indirectly makes them relatively less
vulnerable to sabotage. Indias nuclear plants are
enclosed by heavy concrete walls which makes it
impossible for terrorists to attempt a WTC-like
airplane attack on it.33 But, radiological materials used
in medical and industrial areas are never secure and
can very easily be stolen or released in the form of
an RDD or dirty bomb. Like Pakistan, Indian nuclear
weapons are also kept in a disaggregated state. While
this reduces the risk of inter-state war, unassembled
weapons remain vulnerable to terrorist threats. The
problem in India is that it has to deal not only with
internal, but also external sources of terrorism.
Given its long-standing experience of
secessionist violence, India has developed measures
to guard against the general threat of terrorism.
Moreover, in the aftermath of 9/11 it was decided to
create a National Disaster Management Agency
(NDMA) and similar agencies at the level of the states
to prepare comprehensive guidelines for disaster
management, train paramilitary forces for rapid
deployment in case of a terrorist attack (including a
WMD attack), draw up lists of vulnerable targets,
strengthen fire and medical services, and revamp
communication networks.34 All these broad measures
contribute to countering the threat of nuclear terrorism.
At the international level, India had already begun to
develop numerous avenues of cooperation to counter
the terrorist threat. Within 2002, India became a
signatory to all UN treaties relating to terrorism. India
has been a longstanding member of the SAARC
Regional Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism.
After the 9/11 attacks, the Indo-US Joint Working
Group on Counter-terrorism met regularly, established
Nuclear Terrorism in the Indian Subcontinent
antiterrorism training programs (including a workshop
on WMD for senior Indian officials in December
2001), and began developing cooperation on a wide
range of issues that covered homeland security,
forensic capability, aviation security, and cyber-
terrorism.35
In spite of these developments, certain grey
areas persist. Undoubtedly, border control remains
the most difficult issue for India. The length and
porosity of the India-Pakistan border makes unilateral
control difficult. India engaged in a massive build-up
of armed forces along the border in order to exert
strong pressure on Pakistan to stop its support for
extremist groups active in Kashmir. The outcome of
this exercise has an important bearing on the nuclear
terrorism threat to India, since, as the jihadists
fighting in Kashmir have the greatest potential for
indiscriminate mass destruction. 36 Nevertheless,
cross-border flow of terror and their lethal onslaughts
have not ceased.
Based on this comparative analysis, we can
draw certain inferences regarding how real the threat
of nuclear terrorism in the Indian subcontinent is. To
start with Pakistan, the most pessimistic and alarming
scenario for the future of Pakistan and security of its
nuclear arsenal is that Pakistan will increasingly
become ungovernable. The availability of
sophisticated weaponry to the Islamic groups, coupled
with this could cause considerable political instability,
economic turmoil, and societal anarchy. A high degree
of turbulence can cause serious threats to the security
of Pakistans nuclear program.37 However, optimistic
scholars put the probability of such a scenario at
minimum, due to the competence of the Pakistani
military and bureaucratic establishments. The
probability of Islamists overwhelming the state is also
considered low as it thrives upon the patronage of
the military and the ISI. While the theoretical
possibility of this development cannot be ruled out, its
chances are remote in the near future. Furthermore,
the highly professional, hierarchical, and disciplined
Army may use the Islamic elements to advance its
goals but the senior commanders are not expected to
let the initiative slip into the hands of the Islamic
elements.38 When we try to analyse the effects of
these scenarios on the safety of nuclear materials
and installations, we are bound to feel that the threats
127
have been exaggerated, but not totally unfounded.
Given the fact that Pakistans nuclear program began
in a clandestine manner, both civil and military
governments have always been very sensitive about
its confidentiality and security. Pakistans nuclear
weapons are not expected to fall into unauthorized
hands.39
The pessimistic viewers of the countrys
security establishment proffer a different scenario.
If the terrorists were able to enter the main installation
of a nuclear facility, they might blackmail the
government or damage the installation. If they gained
access to radioactive material, they might use it for
making a dirty bomb. The greater probability is that
radiological material would be slipped out of Pakistan
for use elsewhere. Islamic groups may be hesitant to
use a dirty bomb within Pakistan due to the fear of
losing goodwill at the popular level. To justify their
theory, these analysts have opined that Insider-
outsider collusion provides a possibility for
undermining security, resulting in the theft of
equipment or documents, or facilitating some terrorist
action against a nuclear facility. However, these
security challenges, albeit considerable, are not
insurmountable.40
Insofar as nuclear terrorist threats in India
are concerned, the government has always taken it
seriously, but lapses have been encountered. The
vulnerabilities evident even in high-security contexts
reveal that the absence of a nuclear terrorist incident
so far may have as much to do with lack of interest
or effort on the part of terrorists as with the measures
that deter them. Certainly, the experience of 9/11
gives us reason to expect the highly improbable.41
According to one study, four areas need to be attended
to for enhancement of nuclear security: a) investment
in technology to counter terrorism in a holistic manner;
b) organizing and training personnel involved in
handling nuclear materials to minimize chances of
terrorism and theft; c) public education and information
regarding the potential effects of nuclear terrorism,
to minimize confusion and chaos; and d) independent
monitoring of nuclear-related organizations to ensure
accountability.42
Thus, the actual risk of nuclear terrorism is
insignificant, yet present. This is largely due to the
ubiquity of terrorist outfits in the subcontinent, the
128 World Focus February 2016
political and economic volatility of Pakistan and the
recurring bane of terrorist violence in India. Most
importantly for Indians, the lackadaisical attitude of
security forces and the ubiquity of security breaches
even in high-alert zones. In spite of the exhortations
of optimists regarding the impossibility of nuclear
terrorism incidents in the subcontinent, there is
another aspect to this riddle that they often miss.
What if terrorists take advantage of an ongoing
conventional conflict between India and Pakistan and
steal or launch nuclear weapons to add to confusion
and achieve their preconceived political ends?
Experts like Prof. Chari opined that chances
of nuclear terrorism in the subcontinent are low,
characterizing it as a low probability, high
consequence event. According to him, terrorists
would have insurmountable difficulties in acquiring
unassembled nuclear weapons/materials which are
armed using secret electronic codes, kept separately
to ensure against accidental detonation. Furthermore,
the problems faced to acquire nuclear materials are
no less acute.43 What about the unstable deterrence
between India and Pakistan? Wherever there are
nuclear weapons, some sort of deterrence framework
is bound to be present. And it can be proved that the
nuclear deterrence framework between India and
Pakistan is inherently unstable, largely due to the
preponderance of armed conflicts between the two,
since the 1970s, which run parallel to nuclearization
in the subcontinent. Moreover, the two countries have
shown marked reluctance to formulate and implement
Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and Nuclear
Risk Reduction Measures (NRRMs). For this reason,
the chances of conventional war is high in the
subcontinent, which could serve as an opportune
moment for terrorists to steal or detonate nuclear
warheads to achieve their own political ends.
Deterrence stability comes with the fulfilment
of two interrelated concepts, viz. control of the bomb
and prevention of conflicts having escalatory
potentials.44 In the context of India and Pakistan, due
to the absence of binding diplomatic agreements in
the nuclear domain, as well as the lackadaisical
attitude towards implementing existing CBMs and
NRRMs, both these elements of stable deterrence
have not been completely secured. Thus, deterrence
is inherently unstable, which means that chances of
conventional war and nuclear risks persist on the
subcontinent. Insofar as controlling nuclear arsenals
are concerned, both countries have proper nuclear
command and control systems in place. If there are
chances of accidental discharge of weapons,
deterrence stability is not achieved. Ties between
India and Pakistan have been too volatile to allow
verification of nuclear sites and despite the presence
of measures regarding non-attack of nuclear facilities,
prohibition of chemical weapons and reducing risks
of nuclear accidents, no meaningful gestures have
taken place to increase trust by implementing
measures. Furthermore, the control of nuclear
warheads is contentious in various ways. It is known
that Pakistan keeps the nuclear first use option open
and also advocates early nuclear use in case of a
conventional war, which exudes a lack of strategic
depth in nuclear policy making. 45 Moreover,
unauthorized use of nuclear weapons by terrorists
remains a significant risk during a war or a crisis.
Notwithstanding the extreme precaution that India
and Pakistan take for their nuclear assets, the
probability of security breaches, especially during
conventional crises remain high, as there are no
NRRMs and other agreements in place to ameliorate
such risks.46
Moreover, the four reasons cited by
Leventhal and Chellaney for chances of nuclear
terrorism in the subcontinent could be reinforced if
we take seriously the findings of Prof. U. Choudhury
in this respect: a) despite protecting nuclear
installation facilities from air-raids, both countries have
left ground protection of such facilities to mere barb
wires and primitively armed civilian personnel. Thus,
the chances of nuclear theft, smuggling and sabotage
by terrorists are high. Numerous cases of radiological
thefts in India are clearly due to such indiscretions;
b) terrorists are motivated by religious and not political
causes, and the resulting fanaticism could convince
them that using WMDs would help expand the
Empire of God; c) Pakistan might continue to face
domestic instabilities, which would affect nuclear
stability in two ways during turmoil, nuclear facilities
might remain unguarded, augmenting chances of theft
and unauthorized use, moreover, political instabilities
may lead terrorists to believe that a moment of
opportunity is approaching, which must be exploited
to achieve their sinister goals.47
Nuclear Terrorism in the Indian Subcontinent
Conclusion
To conclude this paper, we can infer that the risks of
terrorists gaining access to nuclear weapons/materials
are present, especially during times of conventional
crises in the Indian subcontinent. But, threats must
not be exaggerated to the point of sensationalizing it.
However, in order to minimise any threat of nuclear
terrorism, analysts have proffered an array of
recommendations.
At the national level, some desirable
measures include: a) India and Pakistan must continue
to track the numerous groups and individuals engaged
in overt or covert violent activities or terrorism in their
respective countries; b) enhanced measures should
be adopted to control the movement of goods and
people across their respective international borders;
c) both need to acquire modern technology and
equipment to upgrade the physical security of nuclear
weapons components, and nuclear materials and
installations, including radioactive waste storage and
disposal facilities; d) greater attention must be given
to scientific background checks of new entrants into
their respective nuclear infrastructure; e) India and
Pakistan should acquire the latest technologies for
secure transportation of fissile/radioactive materials;
f) an autonomous and highly trained security force
should be established for protecting nuclear facilities
and materials instead of depending on a nationwide
security agency that undertakes other assignments
as well; g) there should be coordinated efforts among
the various organizations that are related to the
nuclear infrastructure; h) finally, provisions for disaster
management are also imperative.48
Bilaterally, India and Pakistan could
cooperate in matters of preventing nuclear terrorism.
According to experts: a) cooperation between the
border security authorities of India and Pakistan in
interdicting unauthorized movement of goods and
people across their boundaries is desirable; b)
monitoring the activities of transnational terrorist
groups, exchanging information on these groups, and
making joint efforts to disrupt their connections,
transactions, and movements could be another
measure; c) a formal agreement on maintaining
nuclear arsenals in a non-operational form could
consolidate the tacit cooperation already in existence.
This would not only strengthen strategic stability
129
 4
directly, but also help reduce the scope for terrorists Mclean & McMillan (eds.), op. cit., p. 526.
5
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit., p. 17.
to target nuclear weapons.49 6
ibid. pp. 17-18.
7
ibid. p. 15.
8
ibid. p. 16.
Multilaterally, both India and Pakistan have 9
ibid. pp. 17-18.
10
ibid. p. 18.
participated in the subsequent Nuclear Security 11
Internet Access] Ehud Sprinzak, The Lone Gunmen, Foreign Policy,
Summits since 2010. Although the outcome of their (NovemberDecember 2001); http://www.foreignpolicy.com/
issue_novdec_2001/sprinzakhyper.html; Accessed on 9 January, 2016.
participation has been mixed, both the countries have 12
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit., pg. 20.
signed major conventions to reduce the risk of nuclear 13
[Internet Access] Paul Leventhal & Brahma Chellaney, Nuclear Terrorism:
Threat Perception and Response in South Asia, http://www.nci.org/nci-use.htm;
terrorism. India has joined the Convention on Physical Accessed on 9 January 2016.
Protection of Nuclear Materials and the International 14

15
[Internet Access] ibid.
[Internet Access] ibid.
Convention for Suppression of Acts of Nuclear 16
[Internet Access] ibid.
Terrorism. Further, Indias execution of the 2004 UN 17

18
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit.
[Internet Access] Leventhal & Chellaney, op. cit.
Security Council Resolution 1540 (to enforce 19
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit., p. 52.
measures on WMD proliferation and their delivery 20

21
ibid. p. 54.
ibid. p. 55.
systems) has been exemplary. It is especially intended 22
Stephen P. Cohen, The Nation and the State of Pakistan, The Washington
to prevent terrorists and criminal organisations from Quarterly, 25, 3 (Summer 2002), pp. 109-122.
23
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit., p. 57.
obtaining nuclear weapons. Towards this end 24
ibid. p. 60.
25
countries need to prohibit support to non-state actors [Internet Access] Yoginder Sikand, Changing Course of Kashmiri
Liberation Struggle: From National Liberation to Islamist Jihad? Economic
seeking WMDs; adopt effective laws prohibiting and Political Weekly, January 20, 2001. http://www.epw.org.in/
activities involving the proliferation of WMDs to non- showArticles.php?root= 2001&leaf=01&filename=2099&filetype=html;
Accessed on 9 January, 2016.
state actors; and, enforce effective measures to 26
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit., p. 65.
27
ibid.
reduce the vulnerability of many legitimate activities 28
P. R. Chari, Protection of Fissile Material: The Indian Experience, ACDIS
to misuse and the proliferation of WMDs to non-state Occasional Paper, Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International
Security, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, September 1998.
actors.50 29
Basrur & Rizvi, op. cit., p. 66.
30
ibid.
31
ibid. pp. 66-67.
Nevertheless, the gray areas need to be 32
ibid. p. 67.
worked upon by India. According to Prof. Chari, India 33

34
ibid.
ibid. p. 70.
could adopt a more transparent nuclear programme, 35
ibid. p. 71.
and become more forthcoming about its emergency 36

37
ibid.
ibid. p. 60.
response systems. It could implement its earlier 38
ibid. p. 61.
commitments to establish an independent nuclear 39

40
ibid.
ibid. p. 62.
regulatory authority and a Centre of Excellence to 41
ibid. p. 71.
42
train personnel in nuclear safety and security matters. 43
ibid. p. 72.
[Internet Access] P. R. Chari, India and Nuclear Terrorism: Meeting the
India could add to its USD 1 million contribution to Threat, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, No. 4339, 17 March, 2014;
the IAEA, and offer training facilities to its personnel http://www.ipcs.org/article/terrorism/india-and-nuclear-terrorism-meeting-
the-threat-4339.html; Accessed on 9 January, 2016
in its Centre of Excellence. Both India and Pakistan 44
George Perkovich, The Non-Unitary Model and Deterrence Stability in South
have not accepted the 2014 NSS Guidelines for Asia, Michael Krepon & Julia Thompson (eds.), Deterrence Stability and
Escalation Control in South Asia, Washington DC, The Stimson Centre, 2013,
Nuclear Security (aimed at reducing the national p. 24.
45
[Internet Access] Saeed Ismat, Strategy for Total Deterrence: A Conceptual
stockpiles of plutonium and HEU).51 In the end, there Nuclear Doctrine, Pakistan Defence Journal, March 2000, http://
is much that India and Pakistan can contribute to the www.defencejournal.com/2000/mar/doctrine.htm; Accessed on 9 January, 2016.
46
Upendra Choudhury, Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures in South Asia:
Netherlands Security Summit of 2016, in order to Problem and Prospects, Colombo, Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, 2006,
further minimise the threats of nuclear terrorism in p. 50.
47
ibid. pp. 51-52.
the subcontinent. 48
Basrur & Rizvi, op, cit., pp. 73-74.
49
ibid. pp. 74-75.
50
[Internet Access] Srikant Mishra, Nuclear Security Summit 2014: Indias
Endnotes Record, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, No. 4346, 20 March, 2014;
1
David Carlton, Terrorism, Iain Mclean & Alastair McMillan (eds.), Oxford http://www.ipcs.org/article/india/nuclear-security-summit-2014-indias-record-
Dictionary of Politics, New York, Oxford University Press, 2009, p. 525. 4346.html; Rabia Akhtar, Nuclear Security Summit 2014: Pakistans Role,
2
[Internet Access] Defining Terrorism: Focusing on the Targets, Strategic Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, No. 4345, 20 March, 2014; http://
Comments, 7, 9 (2001); http// www.ipcs.org/article/pakistan/nuclear-security-summit-2014-pakistans-
:www.iiss.org.stratcomsubarchive.php?scID=193; Accessed on 9 January, 2016. record-4345.html; Accessed on 9 January, 2016.
3
Rajesh Basrur & Hasan-Askari Rizvi, Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia, 51
[Internet Access] Chari, op. cit.
Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/25, Feb 2003, p. 17.

130 World Focus February 2016


and Conspiracy against Humanity
Introduction
The trend of massacre committed by terrorist
organizations has once again alarmed the humanity.
Earlier, the devastating two world wars have
compelled nations to go for a stable decision on world
peace; as a result United Nations Organization was
brought about, to save the succeeding generations
from the scourge of war with a primary objective to
establish world peace. The growth of ISIS, brutal
acts of Boko Haram in Nigeria; the attack on School
children at Peshawar, Paris attack, Pathankot
infringement, all these once again compel us to rethink
about the terrorist problems in a different way. We
need to look at terrorist issue from humanistic
dimension, not merely from political dimension,
because most of the time, such problems are
characterised as political creation. Even the counter
terrorism measures often appear as
counterproductive; so humanistic way of dealing with
the problem is of utmost importance. There are many
questions to be answered, how terrorist organizations
and organized crime groups are getting stronger? Who
are the parties, supporting them in getting arms and
ammunitions and why? Is not it a conspiracy against
Humanity? Detailed understanding on it is the need
of hour.
There is a crucial link between terrorism,
organized crime and conspiracy against humanity.
Terrorist threats are not always external or carried
out from a foreign territory; rather there were always
internal engagements of radicalised people1 in most
of the terrorist attacks including Peshawar, Paris and
recently in San Bernardino. One recent trend of the
Islamic terrorist propaganda carried out by the ISIS
is that, they are no longer using their military strength
to threaten the world; rather they are using ideology
as their weapon. Paris and San Bernardino attack
clearly indicates this plan. Recently, on January 07,
2016 a radicalised US citizen seriously wounded a
police officer in Philadelphia and later confessed that,
he carried out the attack in the name of Islam2. It is
Terrorism, Organized Crime and Conspiracy against Humanity
Terrorism, Organized Crime
Chandra Kamal Borah
not easy to defeat an ideology, but the radicalised
people (whom we cannot identify unless they commit
crime) can be debarred from executing their
indiscriminate killing and crime against humanity, by
taking a few cautionary measures.
It is not that only western countries are facing
this problem. Almost all the major countries are
suffering from internal destabilising elements. For e.g.
China form the Uighur community of Jinxing province,
India from the Kashmiri militants, the red corridor
and the North-eastern region, Pakistan from the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) etc. In
China, armed violence is relatively less, because of
their strict border policy and security measures. The
same policy deficiency is palpable vis-a-vis other
countries, which is creating internal security concerns.
Organized Crime: Geopolitical implications
The question of organized crime is relevant with the
growing massacre activities of terrorists; it is because
the organized criminal groups are becoming backbone
of the terrorist groups. Simultaneously, the organized
crime is getting strength from the problem of Military
Industrial Complex. Military Industrial Complex as a
problem was first realised by US president Dwight
D. Eisenhower and expressed in his farewell speech
in his words in the councils of government, we must
guard against the acquisition of un-warranted
influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-
industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous
rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.3 So,
military industrial complex has been an issue of serious
concern which has direct or indirect relationship with
terrorist or organized criminal activities; which have
been backing each other for their mutual interest. The
point is simple; severe existence of military industrial
complex in the arms exporting countries may be a
cause of growing use of arms and ammunitions;
because the industrialist needs to increase its use and
the users are known as Terrorist Groups or
Organized Criminal Groups.
131
 Organized Crime or transnational gangs have
become an issue of serious concern in Europe since
late 1980s (Kleemans, 2007). However, the problems
of organized crime have been largely underestimated.
It engages in some hard core areas like arms, drugs,
money laundering etc. Only after the United Nations
Convention against Transitional Organized Crime,
November, 2000, this issue got global importance. This
convention has defined organized crime as a
structured group of three or more persons, existing
for a period of time and acting in concert with the
aim of committing one or more serious crimes or
offences established in accordance with this
Convention, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a
financial or other material benefit 4 This definition
has given importance on structured and durational
aspects of organized crime. That means organized
crime is not something unstable or sporadic criminal
activity which appears and disappears suddenly;
rather it has a permanent nature of continuing the
crime. Organised criminal groups or transnational
gangs work in semi covert or semi overt way,
sometimes tacitly supported legitimate bodies or big
industries. The Golden Triangle and Golden
Crescent are the best (or worst) example of stable
organized crime in Asia.5 The large network of
organized crime has been actively operating in these
areas; as a result, the insurgent organizations active
in the Golden Crescent area are getting their arms,
ammunitions, most importantly financial support to
continue massacre like Peshawar incident and
militants active in the north east India or in red corridor
of India 6 are also getting arms, ammunitions or
secured assistance from these extended networks.
The investigations followed by the Pathankot attack
on Indian air base reveals the nexus between terrorist
and drug mafias. So, it will be a conspiracy against
humanity, if military industrial complex is contributing
to organized crime which is contributing to terrorist
groups which are regularly causing Crime against
Humanity.
Another example can elucidate the point is
the Golden Triangle. The Golden Triangle is
primarily famous (or infamous) for illicit drug
business, cultivation, manufacturing and trafficking
narcotics. The British colonizers started the trend of
poppy cultivation during 1980s and now it became
popular business. Geographically Golden Triangle
132 World Focus February 2016
refers to the delta between Mekong River and Mae
Sai River. Geographically this zone has proximity with
India especially north east India because Myanmar
being a state of Golden Triangle region is close to
India. The pace of drug business is becoming rampant.
The practice of drugs for the army and an army for
drugs has boosted illicit drug trafficking in Burma.7
The proximity between Army and Drug network will
enable these organized criminal forces to gather small
arms and hence may lead to arms trafficking. This is
not exactly military industrial complex understood by
US president Dwight D. Eisenhower; but it is
definitely a military trade complex which is equally
serious to understand. This is even getting serious.
According to the United National Office for Drug
Control and Crime Prevention or UNODCCP, the
poppy growing area has expanded from 51,000
hectares in 2012 to 57,800 hectares in 2013 with an
opium output of 893tons.8 This growth rate implies
the seriousness of this issue. The same organization
2013 report says that opium production of golden
triangle rises 22 per cent from 2012 and contributes
18 per cent to total global opium production.9 It is a
matter of serious concern related to organised crime
and henceforth financial assistance to terrorist groups.
The same organised criminal groups are
becoming backbone of the Daesh or ISIS. There is
no disagreement that the Daesh or ISIS is a dangerous
organisation with their formidable intentions.
Unfortunately, the organised criminal network is
becoming backbone of their organisational strength
in terms of finance and arms supply. Surprisingly, these
organised criminal groups are based in Europe and
working through transnational networks. So the forces
or organized criminal groups, who are engaging in
black marketing of crude oil produced by ISIS or
engaged in human parts trafficking in consonance
with ISIS is obviously severe crime against humanity.
ISIS had gone far beyond traditional way of gathering
funds; so without removing the root of large financial
networks it became difficult for US and its allies to
counter illicit financial activities. A former US treasury
officer Matthew Levitt who is currently working as
Director of the Program on counterterrorism and
Intelligence at Washington Institute of Near East
Policy, Washington DC, says; Our ability to counter
ISISs local criminal enterprises is severely limited10
and the fact is clear. Unless we counter their financial
sources it is difficult to crush down such brutal powers
and for that we must crush the organised criminal
activities from the root which is possible if adequate
importance is given to that. This clearly indicates the
vicious link between the organised crime and brutal
terrorist groups.
Control of Small Arms: Domestic and
International Concerns
Like the organised criminal groups, who are like the
backbone of the terrorist organisations, the illicit arms
and light weapons are the backbone of the organised
criminal groups, hence of the terrorist groups in terms
of finance and lethal strength. There are several
factors that contributed towards the growing trend
of illicit arms trafficking, these are - newly opened
borders, massive post cold war arms surplus and rapid
expansion of arm manufacturing, production and its
unrestricted trade. Small arms and light weapons are
circulated through three viable channels viz. legal,
gray and black markets (Lumpe, 2001). The legal
trafficking of the small arms or light weapon is
primarily happens between the state parties or from
a private party to a state party with due legal
procedure, which is relatively considered as safe. On
the contrary, the gray and black market is severely
problematic. The concern is also on Gray Market
Sales which are difficult to classify. It includes legally
ambiguous transfer of arms, which might be semi-
overt and semi-cover. Illegal arms trading can be
merged with the Gray Market Sales. The brokering
of arms through heavy racket of organised criminal
group is engaged with it. Even, most of the states
unable to regulate brokering networks too. For e.g.
the US gun lobbies like- National Rifle Association,
Second Amendment Foundation etc are also politically
organised and active (Efrat, 2010). Barak Obama,
while paying tribute to a victim of gun shooting,
conceded that, the gun lobby has taken the congress
as hostage. His words, clearly manifests the strength
of the gun lobbies and the presence of military
industrial complex as anticipated by President
Eisenhower in 1960s. The concerns are even growing.
No one knows with precision about the number of
illicit arms available outside the lawsuit of the state,
but credible source of private researcher and
reiterated by the UN officials that, the estimation is
500 million.11 As an obvious repercussions, there are
at least 200,000 casualties occur annually due to
Terrorism, Organized Crime and Conspiracy against Humanity
homicide, suicide, intentional or unintentional shooting
in non-conflict situations (Small Arms Survey 2004,
chap. 6, and 2005, chap. 9. Cited in, Efrat, 2010).
There are more than 1200 arm exporting
companies from more than 90 countries annually
export arms worth of $10 million.12 And it is rising. In
fact there is no attempt by the major arms exporting
countries to halt this trend. Major arms exporting
countries like the US, China, Russia were always
liberal towards regulation of the arms market because
of their vested interests. Even, at the domestic level
also some of them are quite liberal. For e.g. the USA
has a very liberal small arm policy; and they are also
the most frequent victim of lunatic gun firing. There
are many examples of gun firing in the USA by
mentally disturbed people, but the recent trend of
conscious and deliberate use of gun by a radicalised
Muslim couple has brought the issue into the limelight.
This is just a beginning. The provocative speeches of
the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump,
which was also used by Al Qaida to recruit more
fighters, might contribute to radicalise more number
of young people to carry out future brutal activities.
Concerns about the proliferation of small arms grew
from the very beginning of this new millennium.
The seriousness of the issue of illicit arms
came to the floor of UN, when the UN peacekeeping
forces in Africa notice the flooded presence of small
arms and light weapons, which directly contributed
to civil wars during 1990s. After that, the UN Security
Council took initiative and hold ministerial level
meeting for gun control in 1998 and 1999 especially
focusing Africa. As a follow up initiative, the UN
Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and
Light Weapons in All Its Aspects, held in New York
in 2001, suggested for small arms control mechanism
and also adopted Program of Action or PoA in this
regard. But the PoA was a loose framework and
also was of non-binding nature. Moreover, there was
no monitoring or verification agency to look after the
matter in a sustained manner nor they allow any third
party for verification. Even, PoA fails to ban arm
supply to unauthorised non-state actors. Although
some institutional mechanisms or export control
regimes like- Wassennar Arrangement, Missile
Technology Control Regime etc. are there, these are
not universal in nature and also nor seriously
133
concerned about small arms and light weapons;
instead they are concerned about heavy weapons and
dual use technologies.
The Canadian government in 1998 proposed
for a binding international law to bar supply of arms
to non-state actors without permission of the recipient
state. It was the US that opposed it labelling it too
inflexible (Lumpe, 2001). The US intension was to
continue their influence in conflicting regions with the
help of fringe groups, whom they label as terrorist
or democratic fighters depending on for who they
are fighting the war. Such double standard policies
have kept the loopholes for further ramification of
the problem.
In many cases the UN has imposed arm
embargo to many states and conflicting zones
particularly during 1990s. For e.g. Somalia in 1992,
Angola UNITA in 1993, Rwanda in 1994, Sierra
Leone in 1997, Afghan Taliban in 1999 etc. Such
embargos were necessary to check massacre,
genocide and bloody civil wars in conflict zones.
Unfortunately, problems persisted, arms supply
sustained. To implement the UNSC Arm embargo, a
state needs to enact national laws. Unfortunately,
apart from a dozen of countries, most of the countries
have not criminalised violation of the UNSC arm
embargo. So, the US arm embargo remained futile.
This was the reason, why traceability of the firearms
was another heated debate during the first US
conference of illicit arms.
In 2006, a workshop was held in Thailand to
review progress made in implementing the
Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and
Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light
Weapons in All Its Aspects at both the national and
regional levels.13 This workshop reaffirms the need
to reassess national law and regional boundary
security mechanisms to check illicit trafficking. Since
international threat emerges from the flaws of
domestic law so reforms in domestic law no longer that who has the share of these crimes?
remain as a sole national concern. But, the attempt
to achieve such common ground never succeeded.
The UN Review conference on Small Arms was held
in New York in 2006 to reassess the progress but did
not produce any agreeable document. It was just a
reaffirmation of the 2001 conference decisions.
134 World Focus February 2016
The UN Arms Trade Treaty, 2013 and came
into force in 2014 has also brought small arms and
light weapons under its gambit along with seven other
major categories of weaponries and weapon systems
including battle tank, armoured vehicle, artillery
systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships
and missile systems. This treaty has forwarded legally
binding mechanisms for regulation of arms trade
including small arms and light weapons. It is certainly
a positive development. But, as anticipated, the
countries like Turkey, US with gray export norms and
military industrial complex debarred from rectifying
the treaty.
The above discussion clearly manifests the
seriousness of proliferation of small arms and light
weapons and the risk associated with it and also the
mechanisms that restrict such proliferation.
Unfortunately, many state parties are going beyond
their liabilities and continuing their small arms and
light weapon proliferation. The result is obvious; the
dark world is getting requirements fulfilled. Such act
of the state party is obviously a conspiracy against
humanity. The prism of conspiracy theory definitely
suits such development.
Conspiracy against Humanity
The Oxford dictionary defines Conspiracy as a
secret plan to do something unlawful or harmful.
Recently, in a CNN interview on January 07, 2016,
the US president categorically used the term
Conspiracy to explain the problem and complexities
to tighten gun control. There is no legal document
defining Conspiracy against Humanity but the Rome
Statute of the International Criminal Court has
defined Crime against Humanity; which means
widespread or systematic attack directed against any
civilian population.14 Coming beyond the legal
definitions of crime against humanity, we can easily
understand that in recent period terrorists are causing
the most sophisticated form of crime against humanity,
and we need to investigate the whole course of crime
The geopolitical complexities can be seen
here and the countries responsible for such
encouragement to terrorist forces are certainly
committing conspiracy against humanity. Turkey has
given space to organised criminal networks (may not
be necessarily ISIS) to carry out their illegal activities
including oil smuggling and human trafficking. On the
other hand, Pakistan has given the space to terrorist
organisations, especially to those directed against
India. The US has armed may rebel groups in many
places, which later turned violent. These nexus of
organised criminal groups and terrorist organisations
became so deep rooted that they can even manipulate
geopolitics of a region. For example, terrorist groups,
backed by Pakistani army and Inter Service
Intelligence (ISI), have clearly impacted the India-
Pakistan political relations. Some people may say it
coincidence, but it is true that, terrorists have disrupted
every India-Pakistan peace process. For instance, the
Agra Talk of 2001 was followed by Parliament attack;
2007-2008 secretary level engagement was followed
by Mumbai attack; the Modi visit to Lahore was
followed by Pathankot infringement etc. The problem
is so deep rooted that mere political level gesture and
goodwill cannot bring a sustained change. The heavy
racket of organised criminal groups, arms traffickers
and terrorist groups needs to be extinguished from its
root.
Large numbers of Muslim population have
defied the legitimacy claim of ISIS and not only the
western countries but also many Islamic countries
joined hand to wage war against ISIS. Yet, the ISIS
is receiving arms from some countries to carry out
their massacre. These supplier states are certainly
carrying out conspiracy against humanity. In fact, ISIS
acquired MANPAD or Man Portable Air Defence
System; by using it they gunned downed one Jordanian
fighter aircraft in December 2014. If they acquire
more such weapons, that will certainly jeopardise
operation and air strike against ISIS. Regarding the
sources of their arms, the ISIS gathered weapons
from the Iraqi army, who left their weapons in the
battleground and fled. But that cannot be the unending
stack of arms and ammunitions. These are rackets
of black marketed arms. For e.g. David Axe, an
American strategic thinker and writer says that
Croatia has a thriving small arms industry, with black
market ties. From Turkey, the weapons are moved
overland into Syria. The New York Times report in
2014 unveils examined air traffic data and found
that planes fly with weapons from the Gulf to Turkey,
or sometimes head to third countries like Croatia to
pick up weapons first and then to Turkey ( Woolf,
2014). Such dual standard of actions and polities are
Terrorism, Organized Crime and Conspiracy against Humanity
certainly conspiracy against humanity. Officially,
Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia deny that their
citizens support ISIS in any way. Qatar and Saudi
Arabia even point to laws they have passed that
make it difficult for individuals to send aid to militants.
However, research conducted by the Brooking
Institution reveals the enforcement of such laws and
policies have been compromised. It proves the
common allegation that money from the Gulf is used
to acquire weapons from black markets.
The nexus of the Turkey and the oil
smuggling organised criminal groups is so deep rooted
that Turkey has taken the risk of shooting down
Russian jet, which was deployed to carry out strikes
against such oil smugglers. The Russian military has
released a detailed report of oil trafficking towards
Turkey. The entire geopolitics got a different turn.
Bringing the link between Crime against Humanity
and Conspiracy against Humanity, it is vital to
understand that crime against humanity and
conspiracy against humanity are two sides of the same
coin. The state actors are enabling the non-state
forces to commit crime against humanity; hence the
state actors are engaging in conspiracy against
humanity. Sometimes, this conspiracy may be known
or unknown to them; but they must realise it as a
conspiracy; only then such problems can be better
understood.
Sometime flexible domestic law also helps
in illicit arms trading and support base for fanatic
ideologies from inside. For e.g. US law on Arms trade
shows the flexibility which is enabling the private
forces to access international arms market; US
domestic law deals with small Arms industry and has
flexible control over exports. The items subject to
the jurisdiction of the International Traffic in Arms
Regulation or ITAR, i.e., defense articles and
defense services, are identified on the ITARs U.S.
Munitions List (USML) (22 CFR 121.1). With few
exceptions, items not subject to the export control
jurisdiction of the ITAR are subject to the jurisdiction
of the Export Administration Regulations15 which is
under the US Department of Commerce. The bulk
of arms include the small and light arms for which
the private parties have flexibility except that all the
strategic or tactical weapons are under strict
control.16 That means they are allowing the private
135
groups to make their free trade of arms which cannot
directly threaten a states security but can cause death
of common people through violence, massacre etc.,
which is a by-product of the larger Conspiracy against
Humanity. It is not only in case of United States but
also most of the developed countries, having strong
existence of the private forces in the defence sector
and has similar kind of rules and regulations, which
are causing unexpected situations around the world.
Moreover, there were no federal measures to check
background of the gun buyers. Barack Obama, after
the recent gun firings, initiated to take federal
background check measures to the gun buyers.17 The
second amendment of the US constitution allows the
US citizens the right to keep arms, but this right is
being availed in such a flexible way, where there is
larger possibility of acquiring arms by radical people
or by lunatic people. The enormous numbers of
examples are there to validate this argument.
What can be done?
Few steps may help in making these problems reduced
and robust debate on these areas may bring out more
lights to our understanding. Firstly, enforcement of
strict border land policy. The concept of borderland
has been a matter of intellectual debate. Some
scholars, especially post colonial scholars argue that
borders are artificial and political creation which is
causing division among local people. Again, the
conventional wisdom accepts borderland as a matter
of national security or territorial integrity by drawing
inspirations from the Treaty of Westphalia, 1648.
The networks of transnational criminal organizations
operate particularly in the borderlands for e.g. Iraq
Syrian border, Turkey Syrian border, PoK areas,
Afghan Pakistan border etc. The mandatory border
security policy and international authority to supervise
crucial border lands may play significant role in this
regard.
Secondly, the United Nations should
criminalise the supportive activities of nations towards
organized criminal organizations on the basis of
international security consideration because as long
as this act affects other nations, it is no longer remains
at the domestic domain of a nation. The UN arms
trade treaty which has not covered domestic domain
should be revisited to check this problem. Every arms
market domestic or international should remain under
supervision of international organ. It is not yet
136 World Focus February 2016
happening, as the developed states are not interested
for it because they have a big domestic market which
is causing problems.
Thirdly, the cultivation of narcotics corps
should be brought under international supervision. The
major problem stood against the poppy cultivation is
poverty and local farmers engage in poppy cultivation
out of poverty but this cultivation is strengthening the
dark world. So, a better way to deal with this issue is
to regulate the market instead of imposing complete
ban on that. The way to remove such disease should
begin gradually; first regulation with flexibility,
secondly, reduction of production, thirdly, replacement
of production by other crops, and at last banning all
these items with appropriate alternative measures.
Following such long term measures may help in
dealing with the menace. The Single Convention on
Narcotic Drugs, 1961 urges the states to limit
exclusively to medical and scientific purposes the
production, manufacture, export, import, distribution
of, trade in, use and possession of drugs, but it
debarred itself from taking international action. Unless
there is cooperation, there is less chance for success.
Lastly, the laws regulating arms industry must be
observed under international mechanism.
Recommendations should provide on domestic laws
regulating arms industry. It is time to come out from
the trap of political domain to humanism. If the
powerful nations believe that war, massacre,
destruction in the other part of the world will make
their economy well it is the high time to understand,
this may cause destruction to them too. This reality
was firmly realised by Dwight D. Eisenhower that
the vested interest should not demoralise the
democratic principles of the nation; otherwise the
world will move towards a dark future.
Conclusion
Gun control would be able to halt proliferation of and
sustenance of organised crimes, which buttresses the
terrorist organisations of any kind. The US president
Barak Obamas recent vow for strict gun control
policy clearly reflects the need of the hour. In fact,
the global collaboration of strict gun control and
restriction and proper monitoring of the Gray Market
Sales is needed. We may conclude reiterating the
importance of the issue in comparison to so called
weapons of mass destruction. The weapons of mass
destruction have enormous possibility of mass killing, 5
The Golden Triangle area includes Myanmar Loas
but small arms and light weapons have been killing and Thailand; the Golden Crescent area includes
uncountable number of people and the number is Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. There is a large
growing in daily basis. This is going unnoticed.
network of organized crime in these areas.
6
Red corridor is an inner Indian zone; identified by
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United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime
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Prevention (UNODCCP), report; 2013
Kleemans, Edward R. (2007) Organized Crime, Transit
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Woolf, Christopher (2014) Where are the Islamic
11
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12
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Documents/4Personal%20Publications/
13
UN general Assembly report, Reference no: A/
W o r k i n g % 2 0 P a p e r s /
CONS:192/2006/RC/03
Te r r o r i s m % 2 0 o rg a n i z e d % 2 0 c r i m e /
14
Article 7; clause 1; Rome Statute of the International
Where%20are%20Islamic%20militants%20in%20Iraq%20
Criminal Court which particularly deals with crime
getting%20their%20weapons%20%20The%20answer
against humanity
%20surprised%20us%20%20%20Public%2
15
Federal Register/Vol. 79, No. 1/Thursday, January
0Radio%20International.html ]
2, 2014/Rules and Regulations; US Department of State
16
The final list of items included under USML for
Endnotes
1 regulatory purpose; Federal Register/Vol. 79, No.1/
Suhasini haidor, New Delhis option on Pakistan
Thursday, January 2, 2014/Rules and Regulations; US
published on 05/01/2016, The Hindu
2 Department of State.
See, Reuters: Gunman citing Islamic State ambushes
17
Council on Foreign Relations: [URL: http://
Philadelphia policeman; January 08, 2016.
3 www.cfr.org/society-and-culture/us-gun-policy-
From the farewell address of Eisenhower; the
global-comparisons/p29735?cid=soc-facebook-in-
President of the United States, 1961
4 us_gun_policy-global_comparisons_bgr-010716 ]
Article 2(a) UNCTOC, 2000.

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Terrorism, Organized Crime and Conspiracy against Humanity 137

 Contributors Profile

Prof. A. K. Pasha Director, Gulf Studies Program, Centre for West Asian Studies, School
of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Prof. R.G.Gidadhubli Professor and Former Director,Center for Central Eurasian
Studies, University of Mumbai
Anil Kamboj Formerly a Senior Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses
(IDSA), New Delhi and now teaches at New Delhi Institute of
Management
Prof. Snehalata Panda Emeritus Professor, Deptt. of Political Science, Berhampur University,
Berhampur, Odisha
Prof. Manas Chakrabarty Department of Political Science, University of North Bengal, Darjeeling,
West Bengal
Prof. Rajesh Dogra Department of Commerce, Govt. College Talwar, Hoshiarpur, Punjab
Dr. Sabita Harichandan Associate Professor in Political Science,B.J.B. (Autonomous )
College,Utkal University, Bhubaneswar
Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta Associate Professor, Center for Political Studies, Central University of
Bihar, Gaya
Dr. Arunoday Bajpai Associate Professor and Head, Department of Political Science, Agra
College, Agra, U.P
Dr. Sudhanshu Tripathi Asso. Prof. Political Science, M.D.P.G. College, Pratapgarh (UP)
Dr. Monish Tourangbam Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International
Relations, Manipal University (Karnataka)
Aersh Danish Research Associate at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi
Dona Ganguly Assistant Professor,The Bhawanipur Education Society College,
Kolkata
Dr. Deepak Yadav Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Kalindi College,
University of Delhi, New Delhi
Dr. Sanghamitra Patnaik Associate Professor, KIIT School of Law, KIIT University,
Bhubaneswar, Odisha
Dr. Bawa Singh Teaching in the Centre for South and Central Asian Studies, School of
Global Relation, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda
Bipasha Lakra Assit. Professor, Dept of Political Science, Gargi College,
Delhi University
Dr. Chanchal Kumar Assistant Professor, Janki Devi Memorial College, University of Delhi
Dr. Saleem Ahmad Assist Professor at Department of Pol. Science, School of Humanities
and Social Sciences, Galgotias University, Greater Noida, U.P.
Souradeep Sen Lecturer, Dept. of Political Science,The BES College, Kolkata,
West Bengal
Chandra Kamal Borah Researcher at Diplomacy and Disarmament Division (CIPOD),
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

138 World Focus February 2016

 World Focus: 2009-2016
January 2009 Japan in World Affairs*
February 2009 Chile : Democracy & Development*
March 2009 China*
April 2009 Pakistan
May 2009 India and West Asia: Development Perspectives
June 2009 NAM: India & Egypt*
July 2009 Developments in Sri Lanka*
August 2009 Central Asia: The Global Flashpoint*
September 2009 Environment & Sustainable Development*
October 2009 India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA)
Nov-Dec. 2009 (Annual Number) Dynamics of Indias Foreign Policy
January 2010 Af-Pak: Anti-Terror Strategies
February 2010 Changing Bangladesh: New Leap Forward*
March 2010 Climate Change: Beyond Copenhagen*
April 2010 US & South Asia*
May 2010 India: An Economic Power
June 2010 Why is Gandhi relevant even today ?
July 2010 Revisioning SAARC*
August 2010 Russia in the changing World*
September 2010 China Today*
October 2010 Re-whetting Indias Look East Policy*
Nov.-Dec. 2010 (Annual Number) Emerging Indias Foreign Policy*
January 2011 Rabindranath Tagore*
February 2011 Buddhism in the Contemporary World*
March 2011 Disaster Management in India*
April 2011 South China Sea Dispute: Emerging Developments*
May 2011 India & Neighbours (Series One)
June 2011 Indias Neighbourhood Policy: Harmony & Development (SeriesTwo)
July 2011 US Policy Responses to Developments in the Arab World*
August 2011 Mahatma Gandhi & Gandhism*
September 2011 Contemporary China*
October 2011 Re-emergence of Russia in the horizon?*
Nov-Dec.2011 (Annual Number) Indias foreign Policy: Perspectives & Prospects*
January 2012 Pakistan at Crossroads*
February 2012 Growing Indo-Bangladesh Relations*
March 2012 SAARC & India*
April 2012 Re-energizing India - Nepal Relations* (Series I)
May 2012 Nepal in Transition* (Series II)
June 2012 Changing Equations in Asia-Pacific & ASEAN Region
July 2012 Contemporary Korean Peninsula
August 2012 Swami Vivekanandas Vision: Lessons for the 21st Century*
September 2012 China Today
October 2012 A Glance at Indias Economic Growth*
November 2012 (Annual Number) UPA & Indias Foreign Policy (Series-1)*
December 2012 (Annual Number) UPA & Indias Foreign Policy (Series-2)*
January 2013 Asian Maritime Diplomacy*
February 2013 India & European Union*
March 2013 Energy Security: Indian Perspectives*
April 2013 Dr. B.R. Ambedkar & Social Justice: A National & Global Perspective*
May 2013 Environment and Sustainable Development*
June 2013 India & West Asia*
July 2013 India & Neighbours*
August 2013 M.N. Roy: The Veteran Indian Internationalist*
September 2013 India and Afghanistan *
October 2013 India & Myanmar Relations*
November 2013 Global Governance & Decentralization*
December 2013 (Annual Number) Indias Foreign Policy*
January 2014 Indian Diaspora*
February 2014 Climate Change*
March 2014 China in a changing *
April 2014 Philosophical Thoughts of Buddha, Gandhi & Dr. Ambedkar: Contemporary Relevance*
May 2014 Ethics & Indian Civilizational Thought: Global Implication*
June 2014 India & ASEAN*
July 2014 Disaster Management in India*
August 2014 Indias Economic Growth*
September 2014 India & Neighbours *
October 2014 Indias Quest for Energy Security*
November 2014 (Annual Number) Indias New Foreign Policy (Series-1)*
December 2014 (Annual Number) Indias New Foreign Policy (Series-2)*
January 2015 Oil Diplomacy in Central Asia & West Asia*
February 2015 Environmental Diplomacy and Sustainable Development*
March 2015 Makers of Modern India*
April 2015 Indias Economic Diplomacy*
May 2015 Energy Security Needs of Rising India*
June 2015 India & China Relations*
July 2015 Conflict Zones of the World*
August 2015 India & Neighbours*
September 2015 Regional Diplomacy: SAARC, ASEAN & BRICS*
October 2015 Climate Change*
November 2015 Indias Foreign Policy - Series 1*
December 2015 Indias Foreign Policy - Series 2*
January 2016 Global Politics of Oil in West & Central Asia*

* Hard Copies available

 RNI No. RN34710/80
D. No. (DL (E)-20/5264/2014-2016 - Posting date 19-20 every month)

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