[client name deleted]
QUESTION: ASEAN will concluded its meetings today. What is your assessment on
Vietnam's role as ASEAN Chair? Do you evaluate Vietnam’s handling of the South
China Sea, Myanmar and North Korean issues? Was Vietnam successful in
internationalizing the South China Sea issue?
ANSWER: Vietnam has played its role as ASEAN Chair to perfection but the role is not
over, the culmination will come at the end of the year with an ASEAN summit
meeting with its dialogue partners. As Chair, Vietnam has had to balance its views on
regional issues with the consensus of its colleagues. One example, is Vietnam’s role
as Chair in delivering a critical message to Myanmar, a fellow member.
The South China Sea has been internationalized but Vietnam cannot take full credit.
The United States has upped the ante and confronted China squarely about its ambit
claims to the entire South China Sea.
As ASEAN Chair Vietnam can influence drawing up the Plan of Action to implement
the ASEAN‐China Enhanced Strategic Partnership. Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan
has indicated that a code of conduct is being negotiated between China and ASEAN.
While I do not hold out much hope for progress in the short term, at least these
negotiations are a step in the right direction.
ASEAN has not really advanced its position on Myanmar at the series of meetings
just held. ASEAN is already on record as calling for free and fair inclusive elections
and national reconciliation. The Myanmar question, like the South China Sea, will
remain a festering sore, particularly if elections are not held or do not meet the
minimum international standards of being free and fair.
QUESTION: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she would come back Hanoi in
October for the ASEAN Summit, and said President Obama will visit Vietnam next
year. The Vietnamese government expected the president to come in October. Do
you know why he is not? Will Obama’s ‘no show’ impact on Vietnam's efforts to deal
with China on South China Sea issues?
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ANSWER: President Obama is facing mid‐term elections in early November. It is likely
the Democratic Party will lose control of the House of Representatives. Obama must
stay in the United States for domestic reasons.
Obama has offered to host the second ASEAN‐US leaders meeting in the United
States. This is better than nothing.
The United States has yet to announce it is officially seeking membership in the East
Asia Summit. The timing and modalities are being worked out. Secretary Clinton said
she would attend the East Asian Summit in October this year in an appropriate
capacity and that if the U.S. membership question was worked out to satisfaction,
the President would attend the East Asian Summit in 2011.
Between now and the ASEAN Summit the United States will sustain pressure on
China over the South China Sea. While it is true that President Obama’s presence in
Hanoi would lend more weight and prestige to the U.S. position on the South China
Sea, both the Secretaries of State and Defense speak for the president and China
knows that. They will make the appropriate statement of policy at the ADMM Plus
Eight meeting and the ASEAN Summit, respectively.