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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds


From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

BUND: (127.63) Drop retested 127.58 (see graph)


BUND FUT 6% SEP0 (127.82, 127.84, 127.63, 127.63, -0.22) 130.5
129.93
HOURLY CHARTS
130.0

129.5
129.10
129.0

128.5
128.18
128.0

127.58 127.5

127.0
127.12
126.5

126.0

125.5

125.0

124.5

124.0

123.5

123.0

122.5

122.0

121.5
121.60
121.0
7 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

Move back below the daily Medium Term Moving Average↓ (128.68 today) sent the contract retesting 127.58 (see
graph) and currently below daily Bollinger bottom (127.90 today): Resistance at 127.90 (see infra), with next levels
at 128.00/ 128.09 (daily envelope top/ breakdown hourly), ahead of 128.27/ .29 (current week high/ daily Short
Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at with next levels at 128.53/ .68 (breakdown daily/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↓):
tough on 1st tests.
1st Support area at 127.58/ .56 (current week low/ weekly envelope bottom) and 127.51/ .45 (daily projection
band bottom/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 127.22 (daily envelope bottom), ahead of 127.12/ .03 (June 21 low/ daily Starc bottom):
tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

127.58/ .56 (current week low/ weekly envelope bot- 127.90 (see above)
tom)
127.45/ .22 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 128.00/ .09 (daily envelope top/ see above)

127.12/ .03 (June 21 low/ daily Starc bottom) 128.27/ .29 (current week high/ daily ST MA↓

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds


BOBL : (119.4000) New reaction low off high

BOBL FUT 6% SEP0 (119.540, 119.540, 119.390, 119.400, -0.160) 121.5


121.1600

120.7800 121.0

120.5

120.0

119.8300
119.6100 119.5

119.0

118.5

118.0

117.5

117.0

116.5

116.0

12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

New reaction low on move back below 119.8300 (see graph): 1st Support area at 119.3400 (today’s + current
new reaction low off high? + daily projection band bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.3250 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom) and 119.2500/ .2450 (38.2% April
low to 121.1600/ daily envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 119.5400 (today’s high?), with next levels at 119.7450 (daily envelope top), ahead of
119.7800 (breakdown hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.8900 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 119.9300 (current week high)
and 119.9950 ( modified daily Alpha Beta Trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

119.3400/ .3250 (see above) 119.5400 (see above)


119.2500/ .2450 (38.2% 116.1600 to 121.1600/
119.7450/ .7800 (daily envelope top/ breakdown hourly)
daily envelope bottom)

119.1200 (medium term break-up daily) 119.8900/ .9300 (daily ST MA↓/ current week high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

SCHATZE (109.0850)
SCHATZ 6% SEP0 (109.125, 109.130, 109.060, 109.085, -0.050)
109.80
109.7250
109.75
109.70
109.65
109.5600 109.60
109.55
109.50
109.45
109.40
109.35
109.3600 109.30
109.2700
109.25
109.20
109.15
109.10
109.1000
109.05
109.00
108.95
108.90
108.85
108.80
108.8100
108.75
108.70
108.65
108.60
108.55
108.50
108.45
108.40
108.35
108.30
108.25
108.20
108.15
108.10
108.1250 108.05
108.00
7 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

New reaction low on move back below 109.3600 (see graph: 2nd target at 109.0600 has been met).
Resistance area at 109.1850 (breakdown hourly), with next levels at 109.2150 (daily envelope top) and
109.2300/ .2450 (breakdown hourly/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 109.3050/ .3200 (daily Bollinger midline/ current week high): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 109.0600 (today’s + new reaction low off high? + see above + daily Bollinger bottom + daily
envelope bottom),where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 109.0300/ .0150 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ medium term break-up daily):
tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

109.0600 (see above + daily Bollinger bottom) 109.1850 (see above)

109.0300/ .0150(see above/ MT break-up daily) 109.2150 (daily envelope top)

108.9950/ .9700 (3rd target off 109.3600/ daily Starc


109.2300/ .2450 (see above/ daily MT MA↓)
bottom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

US T-NOTE : (122.25+) Currently below 122.29+ (see graph)

10YR TNotes SEP0 (122.78125000, 122.79687500, 122.78125000, 122.79687500, +0.00000000)


124.0
123.24

123.5
123.01

123.0
122.29+

122.5
122.12

122.0

121.5
121.14+

121.0

120.5

120.0

119.5

119.09
119.0

118.26
118.5

26 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 June July

Drop from new high puts the contract currently below 122.29+ (see graph) and below the daily channel bottom
off low (122.30+ today).
Support at 122.22+/ .21+ (daily Medium Moving Average↑/ reaction low hourly), with next levels at 121.19+
(daily Bollinger midline), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 122.12/ .10+ (current reaction low off high + break-up hourly/ daily envelope bottom),
ahead of 122.09+ (1st target off 122.29+) and 122.03/ .02+ (2nd target/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st
attempts.

Resistance at 122.30+/.31 (see above/ breakdown hourly + daily envelope top + daily Short Term Moving Aver-
age↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 123.06/ .09 (reaction highs hourly), ahead of 123.17+ (daily Bollinger top + weekly enve-
lope top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
122.30+/ .31 (see above/ daily envelope top + daily ST
122.22+/ .21+ (daily MT MA↑/ see above)
MA↓/)

122.19+ (daily Bollinger midline) 123.06/ .09 (see above)

122.12/ .10+ (see above + break-up hourly/ daily 123.17+/ .24 (daily Bollinger top + weekly envelope
envelope bottom) top/ contract high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

UK GILT: Drop from new high reapproached 120.10 (see graph)

LONG GILT SEP0 (120.29, 120.33, 120.24, 120.31, +0.02)


122.0
121.73
121.51
121.5

121.0

120.5

120.10 120.0
119.60
119.5

119.0

118.5
118.50
118.0
117.95
117.5

117.0

116.5

116.0

115.5

115.0

114.5

114.0

113.5

113.0

112.5
22 24 1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 J J

Drop from new high reapproached 120.10 , with inverted channel off 117. 95 under threat (see graph: equiva-
lent one on daily charts has its broken bottom at 120.60 today).
Support at 120.11/ .10 (last week low/ July 15 low), ahead of 119.96/ .90 (23.6% 114.25 to 121.73/ daily pro-
jection band bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.77/ .67 (medium term reaction low hourly/ weekly envelope bottom), ahead of
119.53/ .50 (medium term reaction low hourly/ daily Starc bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 120.60/ .70 (see above/ daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at 120.92
(daily Medium Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 121.00/ 121.04 (daily Bollinger midline/ breakdown daily +
weekly envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 121.17 (breakdown hourly), ahead of 121.44 (reaction high hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

120.11/ .10 (see above) 120.60/ .70 (see above/ daily ST MA↓)

119.96/ .90 (23.6% 114.25 to 121.73/ see above) 120.92 (daily MT MA↓)

121.00/ .04 (daily Bollinger midline/ breakdown daily +


119.77/ .67 (see above/ weekly envelope bottom)
weekly envelope top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5
Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 6