FORECASTING

OSCAR MORA VERGARA

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE - SENA

GESTIN LOGSTICA

2017
1. Elabore una simulacin pronstico de la demanda del producto o servicio segn su proyecto de
formacin. Tenga en cuenta los siguientes elementos:

Name of the company Distributor MOVE

Main business area Commercialization

Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

1. Uses Distributor MOVE, used for forecasting demand

prediction of the items offered, in order to improve
the flow of said articles and preparing adequate
inventory.
2. Items In Distibutor MOVE, forecasting is used in in the
markets of products for home and gardening
3. Time horizon Distrubutor MOVE makes monthly forecasts
4. Model Distributor MOVE uses time series method to
predict the sales of the company and satisfy the
needs of our customers
5. Data gathering Distributor MOVE, makes a monthly data is
requested of the products offered to corroborate
trends and frequency of sales
6. Making Forecasting is used in the markets of products for
home and gardening
7. Validation and In our company, the forecasts are made monthly,
Implementation to ensure that the model, assumptions and the
data is valid.

Plot the forecast, and evaluate the trends that will have your product or service in the short, medium
and long term.

Trends in the short term

Historical Data Sales of last 5 months:

Month Sales
1 $ 3.000.000
2 $ 3.100.000
3 $ 2.990.000
4 $ 3.030.000
5 $ 3.040.000
6 $ 3.020.000
 Sales forecast month 6
3500000

3000000

2500000 Month
Sales
2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

Trends in the medium term:

Year Sales
$
2017 36.352.099
$
2018 37.572.847
$
2019 40.050.500

SALES FORECAST IN 3 YEARS

45000000
40000000
35000000
Year
30000000
Sales
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
1 2 3