Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
H I G H L I G H T S
art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The Nigerian government proposed the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as an automotive fuel in
Received 16 April 2014 1997 as part of the initiatives to harness natural gas (NG) resources but progress has been slow. This
Received in revised form paper examines the natural gas vehicle (NGV) implementation approaches and outcomes in seven
12 August 2014
countries with diverse experiences in order to gain an understanding of the barriers to the NGV market
Accepted 28 October 2014
development in Nigeria. The analysis employs hermeneutic principles to secondary data derived from
Available online 24 November 2014
academic literature, published reports from a variety of international agencies, grey literature, and text
Keywords: from online sources and identies eight success factors for NGV market development namely: strategic
Nigeria intent, legal backing, learning and adaptation, assignment of responsibilities, nancial incentives, NG
Compressed natural gas
pricing, consumer condence, and NG infrastructure. The paper concludes that the principal impediment
Natural gas vehicles
to NGV market development in Nigeria is the uncoordinated implementation approach and that greater
Transportation
government involvement is required in setting strategic goals, developing the legal and regulatory fra-
meworks, setting of clear standards for vehicles and refuelling stations as well as assigning responsi-
bilities to specic agencies. Short-term low cost policy interventions identied include widening the
existing NG and gasoline price gap and offering limited support for refuelling and retrotting facilities.
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction 26th largest in the world with a GDP of $522.6 billion in 2013
(World Bank, 2014).
Nigeria is the world's 10th most populous country (World Bank, Nigeria faces two major challenges relating to its oil and gas
2014), the 6th largest producer of crude oil, the 7th largest natural assets: rstly, fugitive emissions, i.e. the intentional and uninten-
gas (NG) reservoir and the 4th leading exporter of liqueed natural tional release of greenhouse gases (GHG) during the extraction,
gas (LNG) (EIA, 2013). The country is endowed with 187 trillion processing and delivery of oil (World Bank, 2004) and secondly,
cubic feet (tcf) of proven reserves of high quality NG that is rich in energy vulnerability characterised by frequent power outages and
liquids and low in sulphur; most of which is associated gas (AG), persistent domestic shortages of rened petroleum products (EIA,
found during oil exploration and production (NLNG, 2011). Oil and 2013).
gas exports account for over 98% of export earnings and are the Fugitive emissions result mainly from the disposal1 of AG
major drivers of the economy which is the largest in Africa and the
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: 2348022234055.
1
E-mail addresses: o.ogunlowo@lboro.ac.uk (O.O. Ogunlowo), Until recently, AG was considered as a by-product to be disposed for safety
a.l.bristow@lboro.ac.uk (A.L. Bristow), m.sohail@lboro.ac.uk (M. Sohail). considerations.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.10.025
0301-4215/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
8 O.O. Ogunlowo et al. / Energy Policy 76 (2015) 717
through venting2 and aring.3 These create social and environmental initiated a Mega Station scheme to address the supply gap but the
problems and result in the waste of valuable natural resources (World intervention has not solved the problem.
Bank, 2004). Nigeria produced 8529 mbbls of crude oil and 22 trillion The foregoing calls for a holistic rethink in the efforts to exploit
standard cubic feet (tscf) of AG between 2003 and 2012, an average4 of NG especially as existing efforts have focused on export and do-
2.5 thousand standard cubic feet/barrel, and ared 7.2 tscf or 32.87% mestic use for power and industry. However, in the transport
(NNPC, 2013). The country contributes between 10 and 15% of global sector, despite the government's proposal in 1997 to adopt CNG as
ared volume and is consistently ranked second after Russia (World automotive fuel, of 5,686,485 registered vehicles in 2013 only 2210
Bank, 2011). Estimates suggest losses of up to $72 billion in unearned are NGVs (NGVA Europe and the GVR, 2013).
revenue between 1970 and 2006 due to gas aring (The ERA Fact The objectives of this research are, to identify the barriers to
Sheet 2008, cited in Bassey, 2008). the NGV market development and identify ways forward based on
As a result of gas aring, fugitive emissions constitute the lar- the expectation that the automotive use of CNG provides an op-
gest source of energy related GHG emissions (31.34%) of which portunity to signicantly reduce the emissions inventory, reduce
Methane is dominant (50.76%); unlike most countries where CO2 gas aring and increase domestic gas utilisation.
dominates (WRI, 2010). This presents long-term socio-economic Studies including Collantes and Melaina (2011), Nijboer (2010) and
and environmental risks as hydrocarbons have signicantly higher Yeh (2007) have examined NGV adoption strategies for various
impact on public health and a greater potential for global warming countries but studies on Nigeria are sparse and focus on other areas
and climate change than CO2 (IPCC TAR WG1, 2001). e.g. Nwaoha and Iyoke (2013) which assessed the viability for emis-
To abate aring, the country initiated efforts to exploit the AG for sions reduction. This study will contribute to the discussion of the CNG
NG export, domestic power generation and transportation, and as programme in Nigeria particularly with respect to the barriers to
industrial feedstock. Major initiatives include the Nigeria Liqueed market development and pathways towards successful implementa-
Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) that has exported over 3.7 tcf of LNG tion and provide lessons for oil rich developing countries and coun-
(NLNG, 2013), the Oso Condensate Natural Gas Liquefaction, the Brass tries experiencing rapid urbanisation in their efforts to deploy NGVs in
River LNG the rst offshore LNG plant in the world (Alexander's Gas particular and alternative fuels vehicles (AFV) in general.
& Oil Connections, 2003), the Olokola LNG plant, the Escravos Gas The paper is organised as follows: Section 2 draws on evidence
Projects for LPG and the Escravos Gas-to-Liquids facility. There are from the wider literature on the potential of NGVs; Section 3
three gas turbine power plants (Afam, Egbin and Okpai) and two gas- outlines the methodology; Section 4 presents the country analysis;
red thermal plants (Ughelli and Sapele) and 17 other gas power Section 5 the cross-country analysis and Section 6 the conclusions
plants at various stages of construction. International pipeline projects and policy implications.
include the 678 km West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) which runs
from Nigeria to Ghana and the proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline
(TSGP) which is planned to terminate in Algeria. Domestic pipeline 2. NGV potential
projects include the Oben-Geregu pipeline which is to supply a power
Plant, the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben pipeline intended to connect the The global NGV population grew from 415,855 in 1991 to
western and eastern parts of the country, and the Escravos to Lagos 16,733,098 in 2012 with much of this growth occurring between
Pipeline System which would increase supply capacity to the South 2003 and 2012. The AsiaPacic region had the most growth
Western part of the country. (35.7%), while North America, declined by 0.9% and Europe, Latin
These initiatives have contributed to the reduction in the per- America and Africa grew by about 15% each (NGV Global, 2012).
centage of gas ared from 77% in 1990 to 23% in 2012 (NNPC, 2001, The top 10 countries with the highest NGV population, Iran, Pa-
kistan, Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Italy, Ukraine, Columbia and
2013). However, satellite images indicate that the absolute volume
Thailand, accounted for 87% of global NGVs and 70% of refuelling
ared has increased (WRI, 2010).
stations (ibid.).
Nigeria has a crude oil distillation capacity that exceeds domestic
Economic benets, environmental considerations, energy se-
demand but imports over 80% of the rened products consumed lo-
curity, and NG availability are the major drivers for NGV adoption
cally because of low renery utilisation rates (EIA, 2013). Energy vul-
(Pike Research, 2012 and Yeh, 2007). The three, main policy in-
nerability is further compounded by the large and growing population
struments are vehicle technology and fuel regulations, consumers
and government subsidy on the pump price of petroleum products.
and/or suppliers incentives and market creation focused on gov-
Nigeria has witnessed increases in energy demand and GHG
ernment eets and direct investment in infrastructure (Yeh, 2007).
emissions in all sectors between 1960 and 2013 as the population
NGVs offer superior engine performance compared to gasoline and
grew from 45.2 million to 173.6 million (384%) with a signicant
diesel equivalent because NG has higher octane and lower cetane
urban drift from 14% to 50% and per capita income growth from
numbers and does not require anti-knock additives (Oando, 2014). The
$580 to $1100 (World Bank, 2014).
horsepower, acceleration, and cruise speed are also comparable (DOE,
The prices of gasoline and kerosene are regulated and sub-
2013; NGVi, 2013; SCGC, 2013). A major disadvantage is the lower
sidised by up to 40% while that of diesel is deregulated following
driving range resulting from the lower energy density of NG. None-
the withdrawal of subsidy on the product in the early 2000s. The
theless, this can be increased by providing extra storage cylinders al-
subsidy administration is fraught with corruption, ineptitude and
beit at the detriment of cargo volume.
inefciency (Mark, 2012) and this sometimes results in delays in
NG reduces GHG emissions by 1525%,5 eliminates evaporative
the imports which in turn results in perennial fuel scarcity. The
emissions,6 produces little or no particulate matter and shows a
NNPC, which hitherto was not involved in downstream operations,
reduction of up to 80% in ozone-forming emissions compared to
gasoline (NGVAmerica, 2013 and Marbek, 2010). Many studies e.g.
2
Discharge of the entire constituent of AG, predominantly methane into the Goyal and Sidhartha (2003), Mena-Carrasco et al. (2012),
atmosphere.
3
The burning of AG during discharge which emits gases that range between
5
raw NG and ideal methane combustion emissions of water vapour and CO2 due to Depending on the vehicle segment with the greatest reductions occur in
inefciency (Buzcu-Guven et al., 2010). medium and heavy duty, light duty and refuse truck segments (Marbek, 2010, p.
4
This provides only a quantitative context. The Gas Oil Ratio and the compo- 32).
6
sition of AG depend on multiple factors e.g. Nature and the degree of depletion of Responsible for at least 50% of hydrocarbon emissions in conventional
the reservoir and the type of lift used (PFC Energy, 2007). vehicles.
O.O. Ogunlowo et al. / Energy Policy 76 (2015) 717 9
Suthawaree et al. (2012) have demonstrated the public health hence the study adopted the interpretivist stand point. The scope
benets of NG compared to gasoline and diesel. We however note of the study includes the NG policies, implementation approaches
the concerns raised by Ejaz et al. (2009a, 2009b) on the healing and market outcomes in the transportation sector of the selected
process in mice and foetal development in the vivo chicken em- countries and Nigeria. It excludes the evaluation of alternative uses
bryo model. of NG as there is progress in this respect and the automotive in-
NG is safer than gasoline and diesel. NG is non-toxic, non- dustry assessment because the country is import dependent.7
corrosive, mixes easily and evenly with air when dispersed, has no
potential for ground or water contamination in the event of a re- 3.1. Country selection criteria
lease, is less combustible, has signicantly higher kindling point
and can only ignite between 5% to 15% concentration in air. It re- The countries studied were selected based on three criteria:
quires high compression energy for auto-ignition and is less likely presence of NG reserves; experience with NGV and the stage of the
to auto-ignite on hot surfaces as it has a high ignition temperature market in the life cycle. 86 countries with an NGV presence were
of about 640 C, compared with 230280 C for gasoline (J.E. Sinor identied from the data bases of NGVA Europe and the GVR
Consultants Inc., 1994). NGV cylinders are more durable than ga- (2013). Historical data and growth rates in NGVs were used
soline and diesel tanks as they undergo intense safety tests, are alongside infrastructural development indicators to categorise the
cast from a single piece of special steel alloy (no welded joints) countries into life cycle stages. Leading countries in each category
and have burst discs that rupture in case of inadvertent high were selected for the comparative analysis giving seven countries,
pressure or re and prevent excessive pressure inside the cylinder categorised into ve market life cycle groups as follows: early
(Oando, 2014). A survey of 8331 NGVs which covered 178.3 million development: India; sustained growth: Argentina and Brazil; rapid
miles showed that compared to the gasoline powered vehicle eet growth, Pakistan and Iran; low penetration: The US; and collapsed
per 100 million miles these NGVs recorded a 37% lower injury rate, market: New Zealand. Fig. 1 illustrates the life cycle stages of the
a 31% lower collision rate and zero fatalities as opposed to 1.28 various markets.
deaths. Seven re incidents occurred with only one adjudged to be
caused by fuel system failure (CVEF, 2010). The safety credentials 3.2. Data collection and analysis
have also been demonstrated in developing countries such as Iran,
Pakistan and India as there is no evidence of safety disadvantage Initial investigation showed the sufciency of authentic, cred-
relative to liquid fuels. ible and reliable data and information on NGV implementation
NGVs have service lives two to three years longer than com- and outcomes generally. Hence, the paper uses secondary data
parable conventional vehicles (DOE, 2013) because NG is a cleaner from academic literature, published reports by a variety of inter-
burning fuel, the time between routine maintenance checks is national agencies, online sources and grey literature comprising of
longer. However, the acquisition cost is typically about 1015% government publications, reports, statistical publications, news-
higher. Nonetheless, this can be offset over the life span as NGVs letters, fact sheets, working papers, technical reports, conference
offer savings on life cycle fuel and maintenance costs (Pike Re- proceedings and policy documents.
search, 2012; NGV Global, 2005). The cost and the limited avail- Data analysis employed hermeneutics8 principles involving the
ability of original equipment manufacturer (OEM) NGVs en- development of an organising system with the aim of identifying
couraged the conversion of conventional vehicles to dual-fuel or the predominant themes through which narratives can be mean-
bi-fuel globally. The retrotting cost varies across countries and is ingfully organised, interpreted and presented (Tesch, 1990). This
subsidised in some. choice was based on two factors: hermeneutics promote a more
Byrne and Polonsky (2001) and Ewing and Sarigollu (2000) holistic understanding of a phenomenon by showing the inter-
identied impediments to the growth of AFVS and these remain relationships amongst themes while retaining a rich characteristic
pertinent and relevant to NGVs. Byrne and Polonsky (2001) noted of individual themes and allows themes to emerge from the data
that the success of AFVs requires stakeholders' nancial commit- unlike content analysis which starts with predetermined cate-
ment and depends on the availability of: affordable low carbon gories into which data are coded (Patterson and Williams, 2002).
AFVs, affordable alternative fuels, convenient fuel delivery outlets, We followed the steps identied by Patterson and Williams (2002,
maintenance services, appropriate transport easements, and con- pp. 4749) and conducted the analysis at two levels: the individual
sumer education. They observed that speed, acceleration, and country (idiographic) and across countries (nomothetic).
driving range before refuelling are some of the major concerns for The forestructure of understanding applied was gained through
consumers. Ewing and Sarigollu (2000) observed that vehicle cost, literature review and was in three parts: (1) simultaneously
performance, safety, socio-cultural considerations, refuelling, achieving economic viability, environmental soundness and social
maintenance and relative emissions can deter consumer adoption. equity in the transportation system requires difcult trade-offs
Yeh (2007) noted that the initial acquisition cost, availability and (Byrne and Polonsky, 2001); (2) sustainable transportation re-
reliability of vehicle technology and components, and retail NG quires the cooperation of all stakeholder groups (Chilton, 2000;
prices of 4050% of gasoline equivalent encourage consumers and Clift and Wright, 2000; Yosie and Herbst, 1998); and (3) the initial
concluded that none of the countries studied (Argentina, Italy, acquisition cost, availability and reliability of vehicle technology
Pakistan, India and the US) is likely to achieve self-sustaining NGV and components, and retail NG prices of 4050% of that of
markets without government support. In the UK, Kirk et al. (2014) equivalent gasoline are critical elements for consumers (Yeh,
examined the light commercial vehicle market for NGVs and 2007). Although the fundamental structure for the analysis was
concluded that the most important barrier was the lack of re- preconceived based on the forestructure of understanding, the
fuelling infrastructure. They argued that a number of relatively low eventual organising system evolved from the analysis and has the
cost initiatives could help kick-start the market. following themes: background, strategic intent, legal backing,
learning and adaptation, assignment of responsibilities, nancial
3. Research methods 7
Over 85% of the vehicles imported are previously used (NAC, 2013).
8
The theory of interpretation, i.e. the theory of achieving an understanding of
As the purpose of the study is to produce a rounded under- texts, utterances, and so on (not a certain twentieth-century philosophical
standing, a qualitative enquiry approach is deemed appropriate; movement).
10 O.O. Ogunlowo et al. / Energy Policy 76 (2015) 717
incentives, NG pricing, building market condence, and NG infra- increase in transportation demand and vehicle population which
structure development. grew from 2.35 million in 1975 to 21 million in 1991, and then to
41.4 million by 1998 (De, 2004; Gumber, 2009). This rapid growth
led to a substantial increase in ambient air pollution particularly in
4. Country analyses cities. The Central Pollution Control Board reported that the
transport sector was responsible for between 65 and 70% of total
This section presents the individual country analyses. air pollution in Delhi in 1998 (De, 2004). In a bid to curb air pol-
Tables 1 and 2, discussed further in the analysis that follows, lution and safeguard public health, the Supreme Court mandated
present the gures and global rankingsfor gas reserves and pro-
the government in 1985 to take steps towards the use of CNG as a
duction, NGV population, the refuelling and pipeline infrastructure
transport fuel in Delhi and subsequently in other cities. This re-
and the vehicle to refuelling infrastructure ratio (VRI) for the
sulted in the launch of CNG pilot programmes in Delhi, Mumbai,
countries studied. The VRI benchmark used for the analysis is the
Baroda and Surat (De, 2004; Gumber, 2009).
range of 6001000 suggested by the IGU (2009) as the commer-
Despite vast crude oil resources, India depends largely on petro-
cially sustainable ratio for relling stations.
leum imports to satisfy domestic demand. The petroleum import bill
4.1. India increased by approximately 45% between 1985 and 1992 and the es-
timated cost within the same period amounted to USD 4.1 billion (IMF,
4.1.1. Strategic intent 2011) and the situation was compounded by the institutionalised
India experienced rapid urbanisation and signicant economic subsidy on pump prices. The use of CNG as a transport fuel therefore
growth following independence and this led to a signicant provides the dual opportunity of alleviating petroleum import de-
pendency and reducing the economic pressure especially from foreign
Table 1 exchange and subsidy expenditure.
NGV Statistics.
4.1.2. Legal backing
Total Global Global NGV to re- Total NGV
number share rank gistered vehicle per This originated from the Supreme Court ruling of 1985 which
of NGV (%) vehiclesa per 1000 ordered government to promote the use of CNG. Subsequent rul-
(%) 1000 persons ings include the 1995 order which established the Environmental
persons
Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority; the 1998 ruling
India 1,500,000 8.467 6 3.55 34 1 which ordered the conversion of all city bus eet, taxis and auto
Iran 3,300,000 18.612 1 27.09 161 44 rickshaws in Delhi, and the establishment of 71 refuelling stations,
Pakistan 2,790,000 15.736 2 85.16 18 16
the 2001 upholding of the report submitted by the Environmental
Argentina 2,244,346 12.658 3 17.53 311 55
Brazil 1,743,992 9.836 4 4.97 177 9 Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority, and the 2003 di-
US 250,000 1.410 13 0.13 786 1 rective for the formulation of strategies for the introduction of
New Zealand 201 0.001 64 0.01 695 0.05 CNG in 11 cities (De, 2004; Marbek, 2010 and Nijboer (2010)). In
Nigeria 2210 0.012 50 0.04 34 0.01
2006, government enacted the Petroleum and Natural Gas Reg-
Data Sources: NGVA Europe and the GVR (2013). ulatory Board (PNGRB) Act which provided for the creation of the
a
Two wheelers not included. PNGRB. Various regulations have also been established including
O.O. Ogunlowo et al. / Energy Policy 76 (2015) 717 11
Table 2
CNG infrastructure.
CNG relling Global share of CNG re- Global rank in CNG re- NGV per CNG re- Transmission pipeline Distribution pipeline
stations lling stations (%) lling stations lling station (km) (km)
Data Sources: Omidvar (2009), Nigerian Gas Company Limited (2010), Collantes and Melaina, (2011), Infraline (2011), Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas [MoPNG] (2013),
NGVA Europe and the GVR (2013), PHMSA (2013a, 2013b), Gas Association of New Zealand (n.d.).
the adoption of Euro I, II, III and IV emission standards in 2000, economic position of New Delhi and Maharashtra's access to NG
2001, 2005 and 2010 respectively (Gumber, 2009). transmission pipelines. Only 56% of the refuelling stations are
open to the public (NGVA Europe and the GVR, 2013). The high VRI
4.1.3. Learning and adaptation (Table 2) suggests the need for more stations.
At the time the Supreme Court issued the mandate to use CNG
in the city bus eet, local knowledge of NGV technology and its
implementation was sparse and this prompted research into the 4.2. Argentina
NGV standards in other countries particularly New Zealand and
Italy. The New Zealand design and safety standards were used for 4.2.1. Strategic intent
the pilot projects in Delhi, Mumbai and Baroda in 1992 to de- Economic concerns, particularly the trade decits recorded
termine the feasibility, understand the technology and provide the between 1980 and 1982 as a result of high oil prices, were the key
framework for an effective programme (De, 2004; Purwaha, 2006; driver for the adoption of NG as a transportation fuel (Kojima,
Gumber, 2009). 2001). In the 1980s, Argentina was a net importer of diesel as the
urban bus eet, light duty trucks, and farm machinery were all
4.1.4. Assignment of responsibilities running on diesel (Collantes and Melaina, 2011). Although NG was
GAIL (India) Limited was charged with the implementation of in use in industries, power plants and domestically for cooking
the CNG programme. Following the successful implementation of and heating (Honor, 2004), the discovery of the Loma de Lata NG
the pilot programme, various joint ventures were established for reservoir in the early 1980s accelerated government's considera-
the roll-out. The prominent ones are: Mahanagar Gas Limited tion of its use as a road transportation energy source with the
(MGL) a joint venture between GAIL (India) Limited, British Gas establishment of the Liquid Fuel Substitution Programme in 1984
and the Government of Maharashtra established in 1996 and (Collantes and Melaina, 2011). Replacing diesel with NG in public
Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) a joint venture between GAIL transport eet provided an avenue to improve the balance of trade
(India) Limited, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and the Delhi (ibid.).
Government established in 1998. MGL and IGL were responsible
for developing the Mumbai and Delhi markets respectively. 4.2.2. Legal backing
Resolution 150/83 provided for the establishment of a com-
4.1.5. Financial incentives mittee to develop and implement the essential codes and stan-
Government provided incentives including sales tax exemption
dards to govern the Liquid Fuel Substitution Programme. Resolu-
on the purchase of CNG and CNG conversion kits, subsidised VAT
tion 273/84 provided for the adoption of the established codes and
when replacing old diesel vehicles with NGVs, reduced interest
standards, Decree 1752/87 declared CNG a matter of national in-
rates on loans for acquiring taxis and 3-wheelers, and reduced
terest, and the 1992 Gas Law provided for the privatisation of the
customs duty on CNG conversion kits.
NG industry (ibid.).
4.1.6. NG pricing
4.2.3. Learning and adaptation
Government gradually phased out subsidy on the pump price
The NGV guidelines, codes and standards are an amalgamation
of petroleum products and completely withdrew it in 2010. Diesel
continues to be regulated; however, denite price increments have of the Italian, New Zealand and Canadian standards and the ap-
been set as the rst step towards complete deregulation. The new plication of local technical know-how (Goldin, n.d.).
regime allows the oil companies, under supervision of a regulator,
to set retail product prices based on an import parity pricing for- 4.2.4. Assignment of responsibilities
mula. In 2010, CNG energy equivalent price in Delhi and Mumbai Yacimientos Petrolfero Fiscales (YPF), a state-owned petroleum
was 53% and 69% of gasoline and diesel prices respectively (Nij- and NG exploration and production company, was charged with
boer (2010)). implementation while Gas del Estado, a state-owned NG trans-
mission and distribution company was assigned the supervisory
4.1.7. NGV infrastructure development function (Collantes and Melaina, 2011).
India has about 26,277 km of NG pipelines which pre-
dominantly service the northern and western regions (De, 2004; 4.2.5. Financial incentives
Gumber 2009). The CNG refuelling stations are concentrated in Government offered credit lines to cover the incremental cost
three states: Gujarat (35.64%), New Delhi (33%), and Maharashtra of acquiring an NGV or the conversion of a conventional vehicle
(22.65%) (Khanna, 2011) and this may be associated with the (ibid.).
12 O.O. Ogunlowo et al. / Energy Policy 76 (2015) 717
4.4.7. Building consumer and market condence and Farah, 2008; Nijboer, 2010). Pakistan has the second largest
National and international fairs and multimedia campaigns number of CNG refuelling stations in the world (Table 2). The VRI
were undertaken to promote CNG and provide safety information is within the benchmark. To ensure market penetration, govern-
(NGV Global, 2004; 2008; Korin and Luft, 2006). ment instituted a liberal system for CNG retail licensing and
prioritised the provision of NG distribution infrastructure to CNG
4.4.8. NGV infrastructure development stations (Raza, n.d.).
Iran has the third largest CNG refuelling station network,
nevertheless, the VRI exceeds the benchmark (Table 2); suggesting 4.6. United States of America
the need for more refuelling stations and an additional 508 were
planned (NGV Global, 2012). The transmission and distribution 4.6.1. Strategic intent
pipelines as at 2007 covered 28,000 km and 150,000 km respec- The US, though the world's third largest producer of crude oil,
tively (Table 2). is the largest net importer (IEA, 2013). To reduce this import de-
pendency, the government initiated steps towards energy in-
4.5. Pakistan dependence including the automotive use of CNG. The key drivers
for NGV adoption are energy security, reduction of GHG emissions,
4.5.1. Strategic intent improving local air quality and economic growth (Marbek, 2010).
Environmental considerations, economic concerns and energy
security are the main drivers in Pakistan (Raza and Farah, 2008). 4.6.2. Legal backing
Rapid growth in the number of vehicles between 1980 and 1998, The Natural Gas Act 1938 which empowered the erstwhile
from 680,000 to 3.8 m, led to a signicant increase in air pollution Federal Power Commission (FPC) to regulate the rates charged by
particularly in urban areas due to high vehicle concentrations NG transmission companies was the rst occurrence of regulation.
(Society for Human Rights and Environmental Pollution, n.d.). The FPC was dissolved in 1977 and renamed Federal Energy Reg-
About 82% of the country's petroleum products are imported and ulatory Commission within the Department of Energy. The prin-
the road transport sector is responsible for 47.2% of total con- cipal legal instrument for NG activities is the United States Code
sumption (Khwaja and Khan, 2005). Increasing international crude Title 15, Chapter 15b. Review of the major legislation indicates the
oil prices and the resulting pressure on the country's foreign re- use of incentives rather than mandates for the adoption of NG as
serve made the need for alternative fuels inevitable. Consequently, automotive fuel.
CNG was adopted to boost balance of trade by reducing import
expenditure, reducing dependency on petroleum imports and 4.6.3. Learning and adaptation
improving ambient air quality. Government provides funds for research and development of
AFVs. One such initiative is Clean Cities, a governmentindustry
4.5.2. Legal backing partnership, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle
Government promulgated the CNG (Production and Marketing) Technologies Programme (VET). Clean Cities advances the use of
Rules in 1992 and formulated the Petroleum Policies of 1994 and alternative fuels and vehicles by promoting advanced technologies
1997 (Raza and Farah, 2008). In 1998 a mandate was set to attain to the general public through demonstrative use in school buses,
150 CNG refuelling stations and 100,000 NGVs by 2000. transit buses, airport vehicles, taxis and delivery eets.
perceived as adequate given that the OEM NGV is about 15% more of NGVs and CNG stations declined to 201 and 14 respectively by
expensive than a gasoline equivalent. 2011 (Table 2).
Regulation in 2008 to address gas pricing, sustained domestic gas Lack of government support: There is no known form of gov-
supply, and export revenue (FRN, 2008). The Policy mandates all ernment support unlike the other markets investigated where
NG producers to dedicate a proportion of their production for government support drives participation. However, CNG pro-
domestic supply, categorises the market into 3 sectors and sets the grammes must not rely on excessive government subsidies. The
supply rates. The sectors are: the Strategic Domestic Sector, ef- programme in New Zealand was over reliant on government
fectively the power industry; Strategic Industrial Sector-the users incentives and, as such, the removal resulted in the collapse of
of gas as a feedstock and the Commercial Sector-the users of gas as the market. In Argentina, fuel price differentials and credit lines
a fuel; cement manufacturing and industry (but not transport). were the incentives provided, while in Pakistan custom duty
The Policy also established a Strategic Gas Aggregator as an in- and tax exemptions were the major incentives provided. The
terface between gas producers and suppliers to ensure domestic experience of Pakistan, which has highest NGV penetration rate
supply. The policy contributed 28 mcm of NG daily to the domestic in the world, suggests that incentives to corporations to invest
market between 2011 and 2012 MPR (2012). in the CNG programme may have higher impact, as opposed to
The Regulation stipulates a oor price that ranges from about consumer incentives.
$0.1/mmscf for the strategic domestic sectors to over $2/mmscf for Insufcient price advantage: The current price gap of 6.3% be-
the commercial sectors. These prices are below international tween gasoline and NG does not appear to be compelling as the
market rates thus, rising gas prices in key international markets subsidy on gasoline erodes the long term economic benet of
continue to pull production into the export market. Consequently, CNG. As seen in the countries examined, the price differential is
there is a disproportionate focus by gas suppliers on LNG export. A a key success factor and ranged between 33% (USA) and 75%
major shortcoming of both the policy and the regulation is the (Iran).The fastest growth is in Iran where the price differential
non-inclusion of the transportation sector. is the greatest while Pakistan, having the highest saturation,
The market operator has set the price of CNG at N91 per energy has CNG priced at 50% of equivalent gasoline. NGV penetration
equivalent of a litre of gasoline, as a deliberate strategy to en- in India is less than 5% and this could be due to the long period
courage conversion. The price of gasoline is N97 with a subsidy of of subsidy for gasoline and diesel which depressed the poten-
N49.81 representing 34% of the actual market value. The price tial price differential.
differential of N6 (6.2% of the price of gasoline) is marginal and Misplaced priority: Nigeria embarked on the development of the
insufcient to stimulate the market. The results, seven years after regional and international export markets ahead of domestic use as
commencement of the pilot, support this argument. Government demonstrated by the WAGP and NLNG export terminals which
attempted to withdraw the subsidy on gasoline in 2012 by in- were developed ahead of domestic distribution network. This
creasing pump price from N65/l to N140/l but this was resisted by prioritised the export market ahead of domestic supply. Making
national interest a priority ahead of regional infrastructure is a
the people and led to widespread national crisis which resulted in
critical success factor as seen in Argentina, Pakistan and Brazil. The
partial reinstatement of the subsidy with a price of N97/l.
Argentine and Pakistani successes are in part due to their well-
developed NG transmission and distribution network and as seen
4.8.7. NGV infrastructure development
in Brazil, the country developed national pipelines ahead of the
There are six CNG refuelling stations, located in Benin City, and one
Blue Corridor initiative.
mother station10 with attached relling station, in Lagos. The low VRI
Non-alignment of stakeholder interest: The current implementation
suggests that further growth can be accommodated in the NGV po-
approach lacks coordination and is without focus. As seen in the
pulation within the geographical location of the stations. The NGV
countries studied, aligning stakeholder interest is critical. Each
eet of 2210 is largely retrotted and mainly light duty vehicles.
country had a main focus for the implementation and assigned
responsibilities for the critical elements of market development.
CNG Programmes must offer incentives to all stakeholders for
5. Comparative analysis
successful adoption. The removal of restrictions relating to proxi-
mity of refuelling stations in Argentina encouraged investment and
Table 3 summarises the analysis and shows the diversity in the
competition as companies could site their stations in locations
experiences of the countries examined. Based on the analysis, the considered feasible without any restrictions.
following issues arise as barriers to market development in Nigeria:
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