Balance Sheet
mDKK 2008 2009 2010
Assets
Software 0 0 110
Ongoing development of software 180 358 359
Goodwill 239 242 197
Total intangible assets 419 600 666
163 0 0
0 0 76
119 121 113
272 323 387
391 444 576
OA i alt 17,419 20,082 22,427 21,635 22,599 24,180 24,215 24,730 25,104 25,559 25,784 25,988 IBD i alt 2,892 4,603 4,216 3,302 3,505 2,967 28,468 26,699 24,867 22,971 21,009 18,979
IBA:
Operating liabilities: Securities 1,657 704 648 597 548 516
Cash and cash equivalents 950 728 868 373 828 721 4,702 4,212 3,930 4,081 3,775 3,551
Deferred tax 0 8 6 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 Receivables from affiliated company 2,045 4,165 3,490 8,475 7,506 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941
Provisions for claims 67 94 108 119 121 113 114 115 116 118 119 120
Other provisions 325 354 392 272 323 387 387 387 387 387 387 387
Supplier of goods and services 3,664 4,312 4,423 4,413 4,126 4,853 4,296 4,431 4,612 4,852 4,912 5,011
Corporation Tax 551 600 609 375 136 338 338 338 338 338 338 338
Other liabilities 1,794 1,771 1,741 1,712 2,010 2,045 2,650 2,707 2,785 2,887 2,913 2,955
Prepayments 16 5 17 15 13 9 11 12 12 13 13 13
OL 6,417 7,144 7,296 6,906 6,729 7,821 7,797 7,990 8,250 8,594 8,682 8,824 IBA i alt 4,652 5,597 5,006 9,445 8,882 9,178 12,643 12,153 11,871 12,022 11,716 11,492
Invested capital 11,002 12,938 15,131 14,729 15,870 16,359 16,418 16,740 16,854 16,965 17,102 17,164 Net interest bearing debt -1,760 -994 -790 -6,143 -5,377 -6,211 15,825 14,546 12,996 10,949 9,294 7,487
EQ+NIBD 11,002 12,938 15,131 14,729 15,870 16,359 16,493 16,775 16,884 17,040 17,132 17,194
Invested GNS 11,970 14,035 14,930 15,299 16,114 16,389 16,579 16,797 16,909 17,033 17,133 NIBD GNS -1,377 -892 -3,467 -5,760 -5,794 4,807 15,186 13,771 11,973 10,121 8,390
Likvide beholding er fratrukket likvider til drift, som er 0,5% gange omstningen. EQ GNS 13,347 14,927 18,397 21,060 21,909 11,619 1,448 3,058 4,989 6,965 8,773
NIBD GNS -1,377 -892 -3,467 -5,760 -5,794 4,807 15,186 13,771 11,973 10,121 8,390
Control assets 22,071 25,679 27,433 31,080 31,481 33,358 36,858 36,883 36,975 37,582 37,500 37,480
Total assets 22,071 25,679 27,433 31,080 31,481 33,358 36,933 36,918 37,005 37,657 37,530 37,510
Difference 0 0 0 0 0 0 -75 -35 -30 -75 -30 -30
Control liabilities 22,071 25,679 27,433 31,080 31,481 33,358 36,933 36,917 37,005 37,657 37,530 37,510
Total liabilities 22,071 25,679 27,433 31,080 31,481 33,358 22,071 25,679 27,433 31,080 31,481 33,358
Difference 0 0 0 0 0 0 14,862 11,238 9,572 6,577 6,049 4,152
Varelager GNS 3,683 4,065 4,249 4,076 4,220 4,252 4,131 4,280 4,479 4,622 4,697
Varekreditorer GNS 3,988 4,368 4,418 4,270 4,490 4,575 4,363 4,521 4,732 4,882 4,962
Dansk Supermarked Dupont
2008-A 2009-A 2010-A 2011-A 2012-A
ROIC n/a 16.4% 14.2% 35.1% 8.1%
PM n/a 3.5% 3.4% 9.6% 2.3%
ATO n/a 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.6
ROIC = PM * ATO n/a 16.4% 14.2% 35.1% 8.1%
Stock turnover rate n/a 11.3 10.6 9.5 9.9
Number of days n/a 31.8 33.9 37.9 36.3
Creditors turnover rate n/a 10.5 9.9 9.1 9.5
Number of days n/a 34 36 39 38
EBIT-margin n/a 4.7% 4.4% 10.8% 3.0%
ROE n/a 15% 14% 29% 6%
Fgear n/a 0.10 0.06 0.19 0.27
Spread n/a 9.5% -0.2% 33.3% 5.5%
Ronfa / r n/a 7.0% 14.5% 1.8% 2.6%
ROE n/a 15% 14% 29% 7%
2013-A
1,296
563
118
748
2,725
One year = 360 days
Dansk Supermarked A/S Profit and loss statement
357600742.xlsx Page 11 of 41
Dansk Supermarked A/S Balance sheet - Equity & Liabilities
357600742.xlsx Page 12 of 41
Dansk Supermarked A/S Cash flow statement
DKK 2010-A 2011-A 2012-A
357600742.xlsx Page 13 of 41
2013-A 2014-F 2015-F 2016-F 2017-F
- - - - -
(124) (996) (934) (870) (804)
147 - - - -
2,332 2,269 2,433 2,512 3,465
0 - - - -
1,771 1,713 1,861 1,959 2,703
357600742.xlsx Page 14 of 41
2013-A 2014-F 2015-F 2016-F 2017-F
0 - - - -
76 - - - -
113 114 115 116 118
387 387 387 387 387
576 501 502 503 505
132 (75) 1 1 1
2,832 9,489 7,720 5,888 3,993
- 18,979 18,979 18,979 18,979
2,832 28,468 26,699 24,867 22,971
- - - - -
135 - - - -
4,853 4,296 4,431 4,612 4,852
- - - - -
338 338 338 338 338
2,045 2,650 2,707 2,785 2,887
9 11 12 12 13
7,380 7,296 7,487 7,747 8,090
357600742.xlsx Page 15 of 41
2013-A 2014-F 2015-F 2016-F 2017-F
- - - - -
(555) (800) (791) (744) (939)
1,754 2,465 2,576 2,638 3,330
132 (75) 1 1 1
762 687 709 861 841
2,648 3,078 3,286 3,500 4,172
- - - - -
(94) (752) (715) (679) (627)
112 - - - -
(6) - - - -
(538) 25,501 (1,770) (1,832) (1,896)
(527) 24,749 (2,484) (2,510) (2,523)
357600742.xlsx Page 16 of 41
Valuedrives forecast - Net sales 2012 2013 2014
Netto Denmark 15,928 15,867 15,838
Ftex 13,177 13,126 13,102
Bilka 8,833 8,799 10,079
Salling 437 431 432
Netto Polan 4,969 5,090 5,722
Netto Tyskland 8,347 8,237 8,160
Netto Sverige 3,864 3,907 3,949
Andre indtgter (valuta usikkerhed) -771 546
I alt 55,556 55,457 57,282
Markedsandele jf. Euromonitor 2012 2013 2014
Netto Denmark 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Ftex 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%
Bilka 6.1% 6.1% 7.0%
Salling 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%
Netto Polan 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
Netto Tyskland 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Netto Sverige 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Valuedrives forecast - Total market forecast jf Euromonitor
2012 2013 2014
2%
DKK Danmark 144,804 144,242 143,981
0.823 Sverige 227,296 229,843 232,303
7.45 Tyskland 1,391,191 1,372,841 1,359,990
1.7846 Polen 292,303 299,433 301,173
DKK Salling 6,622 6,523 6,547
Valuedrives forecast - Total market forecast segments jf Euromonitor
%growth 2012 2013 2014
Prepayments 16 5 17
%andel 0.03% 0.01% 0.03%
2015 2016 2017 2018 RV
15,865 15,910 15,963 16,229 16,554
13,125 13,162 13,205 13,426 13,694
10,096 10,124 10,158 10,328 10,534
466 478 493 493 503
6,680 7,663 9,311 9,381 9,569
8,169 8,261 8,401 8,429 8,597
4,674 5,892 7,157 7,214 7,358
15 13 9 11 12 12 13 13
0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
RV
66,809
-48,771
73.0%
-6,013
9.0%
RV
RV
66,809
4,743
7.1%
334
0.5%
134
0.2%
5,011
7.5%
2,138
3.2%
13
0.02%
Dansk Supermarked A/S Net working capital
357600742.xlsx Page 23 of 41
2010-A 2011-A 2012-A 2013-A 2014-F 2015-F 2016-F
357600742.xlsx Page 24 of 41
2017-F
64,688
5.2%
7,941
4,593
323
129
12,987
500
4,852
-
400
2,070
13
7,835
5,152
8.0%
(93)
2017-F
18,466
1,000
(841)
18,625
28.8%
2017-F
1,279
75
1,354
2.1%
357600742.xlsx Page 25 of 41
Senior debt in LBO case, annuity A-tranchen
Debt begin Repayments Interest Payment Debt end year
9,489 1,770 332 2,102 7,720 1
7,720 1,832 270 2,102 5,888 2
5,888 1,896 206 2,102 3,993 3
3,993 1,962 140 2,102 2,031 4
2,031 2,031 71 2,102 0 5
Interest
Long term interest rate (pre-tax) 19.36% 3.19% 4.08%
In % of sales
Stock (Inventory) 6.3% 6.7% 7.4%
Other receivables 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
357600742.xlsx Page 28 of 41
2011-A 2012-A 2013-A 2014-F 2015-F 2016-F 2017-F
357600742.xlsx Page 29 of 41
Dansk Supermarked A/S DCF analysis
Change in provisions - 49
Depreciation 723 749
Operational cash flow 2,528 2,766
Value of operations
Enterprise value (EV)
Net debt
Minority interests
Shareholder value (SV)
Implied multiples
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITA
EV/EBIT
SV/Net profit
357600742.xlsx Page 30 of 41
2010-A 2011-A 2012-A 2013-A 2014-F 2015-F 2016-F
52,557
52,557
(1,315)
-
51,242
80.4%
41,000
11,557
357600742.xlsx Page 31 of 41
2017-F
64,688
5.2%
5,110
7.9%
(841)
4,269
6.6%
(939)
3,330
26.2%
1
841
4,172
(1,000)
(75)
93
3,191
4.000
7.49%
2,390
0.8x
10.3x
12.3x
12.3x
19.0x
357600742.xlsx Page 32 of 41
WACC - CAPM
Cost of
Equity
Cost of
Debt
Market risk premium
5.0%
Beta
1.34
Debt spread
3.5%
Illiquidity premium
5.0%
Cost of debt
4.9%
Cost of equity = Beta * (Market risk premium) + Risk free rate +Illiquidity premium
Cost of equity
13.1%
60%
WACC
7.492%
WACC Input
Risk-free rate
Debt spread A-tranchen
Debt spread B-tranchen
Marginal tax rate
Beta equty
EK EK
U
* 1
FK
EK
* (1 t c )
E(Ri)0,143i(*0,51)34 0,%513
1.43%
3.50%
3.50%
24.50%
0.63
0.4
0.6
time 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000 1,000
IRR
time 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000 1,000
IRR
time 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000 1,000
IRR
time 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000 1,000
IRR
Exit in year 2017
Dansk Supermarked A/S IRR analysis
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
50,321 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
19.45% IRR
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
43,109 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
16.57% IRR
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
37,935 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
14.26% IRR
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
32,761 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
11.67% IRR
Exit in year 2019
Dansk Supermarked A/S IRR analysis
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
50,321 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
23.06% IRR
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
43,109 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
19.44% IRR
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
37,935 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
16.55% IRR
7 time 1 2 3 4 5
32,761 Cash Flow -18,979 300 300 500 1,000
13.32% IRR
2018-F 2019-F End 2018
1,000 1,000
-18,979
69,300
50,321
6 7 8
1,000 1,000 50,321
16.96%
1,000 1,000
-18,979
62,088
43,109
6 8 9
1,000 1,000 43,109
14.58%
1,000 1,000
-18,979
56,914
37,935
6 7 8
1,000 1,000 37,935
12.66%
1,000 1,000
-18,979
51,740
32,761
6 7 8
1,000 1,000 32,761
10.52%