Book Review

Cousrse: Arms Control & Disarmament

To: Brig Dr Naeem Haider

By: Waleed Hassan DSS-IV

Quaid-i- Azam University, Islamabad

5 th June 5, 2017
Bomb Scare: The Histor y and
Future of Nuclear Weapons
By: Joseph Cirinc ione
Summary by: Wal eed Hassan

This book Bomb Scare is to

understand completely the
issues related to the nuclear
bomb and its prolif eration. In
this book we learn entire history
of the bomb and the options
available f or us. It begins with
the atom discove ry bef ore the
WW II till current crisis of today.
The author mentions that how
the nuclear weapo ns became the
priorit y of the states. The Trinit y
test by US at Ala mogordo in 1949, and soviet test a t Kazak in 1949
initiated the nuclear prolif eration . In 1950, US had 400 Nuclear
W arheads, and the Soviets ha ve 5, th en in 1960, the US acquired 20,000
and soviets have 1600 warheads. Seeing US and USSR other states
jumped in to the nuclear club: UK in 1952, France in 1960, China in
1964, and India in 1974.

A time came when the leadership of these states realize that the world
will become hostage to nuclear weapons and their spread must be
controlled a s eries of talks, meetings, and treaties were proposed and
signed. Fo rmal and inf ormal groups of nuclear non prolif eration were
f ormed. W ith partial success th is n onprolif eration regime brought the
numbers down to 27,000 which we re 65,000 in 1986. 23 states were
acquiring NW s in 1986 and were reduced to 10 states only.

The other f actor which is comprehensively d iscussed in this book is wh y

a state seeks Nuclear W eapons, and wh y they dont. The writer
discussed the f ive drivers and f ive ba rrie rs, which inclu de s the security,
prestige, domestic politics, technology and economics. The states
f ollowin g the realism seek NW s because of security imperative , as
human natural state is of eve ry man is a gainst e ve ry man (le viathan -
Thomas Hobbes) .I n domestic politics the re are three musketeers who
wish f or the NW s they are: scientist s, soldiers and state leaders; and f or
some state s their domestic politics do not allo w f or b ecoming Nuclear
Power. Fo r e xample; it is the permanent part of the Japanese identity to
not even d iscuss a bout the nuclear weapons the y f ollow three principals:
not to manuf acture, possess, or perm it deployment of nuclear weapons.
The technology is major driver if the scientists are deve loping and if it is
possible, it is out of their power to control it f or example: UK started the
research of Nuclear weapons even prior to US, because the UK was f ar
ahead in technology at that time. Similarly economics play an important
role in the development of nuclear weapons a state had to cut her belly
f or nuclear research , for instance the total cost of Indian nuclear arsenal
is $21 million , and the US, had spent almost $7.5 trillion f rom 1940 to
2005, it requires $ 410billions f or the environment clean up. Sometimes
the economic cost becomes the barrier, I raq aband on its nuclear
programme because the country s economic condition was in tatters, and
there were f ears of sanctions f rom Europe and USA , theref ore, Iraq
abandoned the nuclear programme and became economic stable.

Meanwhile, author gives the picture of todays nuclear world. From 1986
to 2006 the nuclear missiles and long range bombers are reduced to
60%, but howeve r there are chances of nuclear weapons might come in
the hands of terrorists. He discusses the f our nuclear threats of this
century which incl udes the nuclear terrorism; concerns about exist ing
nuclear weapons; the danger of evolution of new nuclear weapons states
( Iran, Saudi Arabia, south Korea), which will cause a chain reaction; and
the collapse of non prolif eration regim e.

The nuclear terr orism is the most serious threat; there are apocalypt ic or
messianic groups such as Al Qaida, Japanese fanatic group Aum
Shinikyo. The major concern is that these groups are eager to acquire
NW s rather to manufacture it. Four incidents were reported when s uch
groups t ried to acquire NW s; two on nuclear installatio ns of Russia and
two on nuclear transport train. IAEA reported 18 incidents of nuclear
thef t. Al Qaida tried to purchase uranium f rom Sudan and paid $1.5
million. There are now 40 states in the wor ld having saf e nuclear
research, which pose a great danger when it comes to nuclear terrorism.
The existin g nucle ar arsenals also pose a threat to the world. In January
1995 Russia mistook Norwegian wea ther rocket as US submarine, and
President Yelst in was about to launch nuclear attacks, but realized it as
misinf ormation; such events can be very dangerous and can trigger
nuclear escalation or a nuclear Armageddon . The nuclear stock pile is
declining but not en tirely disarmed. Russia and US h ave thousands of
wa rheads, which t hey can launch anyt ime in any so rt of crisis. Another
example is of Taiwans crisis, USA, and china could have started the
nuclear escalation, because such crisis f orms mysteriou sly. The leaders
can manipulate the crisis ve ry quickly. Th ere are the chances of new
nuclear tests as In dia sho ws co ncern s o ver CTBT and is dis satisf ied with
the previous tests .

There are chances of evolution of new nuclear states. If Iran and North
Korea are not stopped it will t rigger a chain reaction in the en tire region.
Iran will t rigger Sa udi Arabia, turke y and Egypt; North Korea will trigge r
Japan, Taiwan , and South Korea.

Lastly, there are chances of the collapse of nonprolif eration regime .

Though there is a partial success of thirt y f ive years but meanwh ile it is
diff icult to control other states that are ambitious t o make nuclear
weapons, because the nuclear weapons states have a mo nopoly and it is
just like the parents are enjoying the cigarettes puff s and not allowin g
their child ren f or smoking. The de sire f or the nuclear weapons is
increasin g. Some other countries are willin g to acquire weapons because
their neighbors have; the domino theory of this age is nuclear. Countries
such as Japan, Ukraine, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea, Brazil,
Indonesia, Argentina and T urkey may decide to acquire nuclear weapons
considering their securit y situation and if this is achieved there are
chances of breakdown of nonprolif eration regime.

Then comes the new us policy. P rolif eration was a glo bal phenomenon
not an end in itself . The current US administration has taken a number of
initiatives; wh ich includes removin g hostile regimes who are acquirin g
nuclear weapons, f ormed National Securit y Strategy in September 2002
and, The National Strategy to Combat W eapon s of Mass Destruction, in
October 2002.The great challenge to US is f rom the states who are
hostile to us and they will continue to pursue f or nuclear, chemical, and
biologica l weapons. US will continue to prolif erate to extend its uni-
polar movement.
The new strate gy would be more like who and what ra ther equal f or all.
The three pillars of anti -prolif eration are: tradition non prolif eration
agreements; countering the pro lif eration which includes anti -missile and
military act ions; and consequence managem ent. Almost $9 billion we re
spent on counter prolif eration especially f or anti missile weapons. No w,
what are the successes of this new policy: Lib ya aba ndon its decade
long nuclear programme in 2003, UNSC reso lution 1540, evolution of
export control re gim e, Iran nuclear deal, in 2002 Strategic of fensive
Reduction Treaty (SORT) was signed to reduce NW s up to 1700 f rom
2200 by 2012, in 2004 Global Threat Reduction Initiative GTRI an effort
to secure the HEU around global nuclear installations; and lastly the
prolif eration security in itiative PSI to stop indirect trade in weapons

Apart f rom success there were some f ailures also: IRAQ wa r was the
f irst nonprolif eration war, wh ich was f ailed to achieve the US
administrations perceived goals, a nd at the end , the world had seen
there were no weapons of mass destruction W MDs; dangers of nuclear
terrorism increased manif olds; Iraq invasion strengt hened conviction
around the Irani echelons that securit y could be only be enhanced by
nuclear option; North Korea became nuclear weapon state and withdre w
its membership f rom the NPT; Though A.Q. khan black market was
exposed and dismantled in 2004 but his black market supported Libya ,
N.Korea, and I rans nuclear production; the US-Russia negotiations to
reduce weapons came to a sudden end af ter Mosco w treaty in 2002; US-
Indo nuclear deal was another double standard move by US. US agreed
f or the selling of sensitive nuclear technology which would thrive Indians
nuclear prolif eration, this is seen as de-f acto recognition of India as a
nuclear state. T he good ne ws about prolif eration is in 1960 , there were
23 states who were willin g to make a bomb; in 1980 , there were 19, and
this f urther went down to 10 in 2006.B elarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
had thousands of weapons but the y ga ve up and joine d NPT. Moreo ver
long range ballistic missiles we re reduced to 67%. Chemical and
biologica l weapons are removed f rom the state arsenals of many
countries that had these weapons.

Finally, this is a very inf ormative book f or the scholars, nuc lear
strategist s, polit icians, leaders, gen erals and the co mmon people to
understand the nuclear weapons f rom the time of their inception to
nowada ys issues. A must read f or all!