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A statistical overview of sand demand in Asia


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A statistical overview of sand demand in Asia
and Europe.

Kowshik Chilamkurthy, A.V. Marckson, Siva Teja Chopperla, Manu Santhanam

Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, India.

Globally, about 53 billion tons of material is mined every year. Mining of sand and gravel account for the largest
volume of solid material extracted globally. Sand and gravel represent the highest volume of raw material used on
earth after water. Their usage greatly exceeds natural renewal rates, which has been resulted by the erosive
processes over thousands of years; they are now being extracted at a rate far greater than their renewal.
Moreover, the volume being extracted is having a major impact on construction industries and ecosystem. The
absence of global monitoring of sand excavation contributes to this situation and it's the one way to reduce
consumption of sand is to optimize the use of substitutes to sand in construction industries. This statistical overview
mainly aims to admonish countries to use substitutes by giving a brief statistical analysis of sand production in the
countries of Asia and Europe. This paper mainly sheds its light on future global sand productions. The
implementation of monitoring algorithm regarding global sand production gives a brief idea on the usage of these
replacement materials which compensates the prevailing sand production. The replacement materials might not be
economically efficient and on the other the side exponential usage of sand is not ecologically efficient, in these
archaic situations, this paper aims to find an optimized solution which balances both economy and ecology. This
overview also aims to give a pictorial of the statistical data about the sand production of each country in the
continents of Asia and Europe and future predictions of the sand productions is approximated by machine learning
software, which might also raise this issue on the political agenda and perhaps lead to an international framework
to improve extraction governance.
1 Introduction without a significant impact on the environment (Sonak
et al., 2006, Kondolf, 1994). Sand is not only a
Environmental problems occur when the rate of
precious mineral, but also protecting the environment,
extraction of naturally available commodities exceeds
buffer against strong tidal waves and storm, habitat for
the rate at which natural processes generate this
crustacean species and marine organisms, used for
commodity. The environmental effects may vary from
making concrete, filling the roads, building sites, brick-
affecting a small community to world crisis. In this
making, making glass, sandpapers, reclamations
paper, we would like to unveil the present situation of
(Saviour, 2000). Sand mining is of great importance to
sand especially the river sand. River sand is produced
the country's economy, sand mining provides
by the weathering/abrasion of the gravel bed and also
employment opportunities to a considerable section of
it is one of the most used and economically available
the labour force (UNEP GEAS). It should, however, be
natural building material. Most of the river sand
recognized that the processes of prospecting,
dredged from the river beds is used in the construction
extracting, concentrating, refining and transporting
sector and one of the key components of concrete
minerals have great potential for disrupting the natural
(Kondolf, 1997, Zhang et al., 2006). However, desert
environment. The morphologies of the mining areas
sand, which seems to stretch across the globe forever,
have demonstrated the impact of mining with the
does not serve this purpose due to its consistency and
prowess to destroy the cycle of ecosystems. The sand
chemical properties. This is mainly due to its lack of
mining resulted in irreversible damage to river
silicon dioxide compounds and the fact that desert
systems.
sand is too fine and smooth, containing too much clay,
iron oxides and lime (Delestrac, 2013). Sand mining is A lack of proper scientific methodology for river sand
the process of removal of sand and gravel where this mining has led to indiscriminate sand mining (John,
practice is becoming an environmental issue as the 2009), while weak governance and corruption have led
demand for sand increases in industry and to widespread illegal mining (Saviour, 2012; Ashraf et
construction (Mossa and McLean, 1997). This large al., 2011). Now, it is essential for governments of the
quantity of material cannot be extracted and used respective countries to monitor river sand mining
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activities to take care of these emerging environmental environment can be predicted by analyzing the
issues which ultimately affect the sustainability of the previous data.
country. In most of the countries, the major problem is
Key Terms:
illegal sand mining (Milton, C., 2010) for example India
(Ghosh, 2012). The number of illegal sand mining Gradient Boosting Regressor, Future sand
dredges as well as extracted sand volume has soared consumption predictions, socioeconomic Indices,
year after year. Except in the European Union, Feature importance, Future cement productions,
regulation efforts are few, especially in developing Substitutes to sand.
countries (Sreebha and Padmalal, 2011). Lack of
monitoring systems, regulatory policies and
environmental impact assessments have led to 2 Assumptions:
indiscriminate mining, triggering severe damage to the
environment and related ecosystem services. It is Most of the cement produced by the nations is
necessary that a strategy that can balance the current used for preparing concrete. The cement used
demand and the emerging environmental issues for preparing mortar and other materials is
related to sand mining needs to be worked out. neglected.

Surprisingly, although more sand and gravel


are mined than any other material, reliable
In this paper, we analyze the patterns of river sand data on their extraction in certain developed
usages across the country over the past decade by countries are available only for recent years
considering some valid assumption. By implementing (Krausmann et al., 2009). So to overcome this
algorithms, we will relate the total amount of sand problem, the total sand required to prepare
dredged annually and indexes of country (Shafiee and concrete using 1 unit of cement is 2 units. This
Topal 2008). The emerging solution to this river sand assumption is validated by adopting the
problem is usage of replacement materials which is average mix design.
quiet uneconomical as far as country revenues are
concerned, so it is essential to obtain one optimized The total cement produced by a nation is used
solution to this problem which balances both for their own usages, the exports and imports
environmental problems and economic depressions. of cement are neglected.
Keeping this as our primary agenda, sand production
Usage of substitutes for sand is not considered
data of 38 countries in Asia and Europe was collected.
in this paper, all the sand related data
The construction industry makes significant
mentioned in this context is the data of sand
contributions to the socioeconomic development
that dredged from the earth.
process in most countries (Chan Lee, 2010; Jamilus
Md Hussin, 2013). By using this previous data, it is A non-linear regression (Gradient Boosting
possible to find out the contributions of each Regression) is used for prediction and data
socioeconomic factors (Chiang,2015) like total analysis.
population, GDP (Raymond, 2010), urbanization, GDP
(%construction sector) to the total sand that was The consumption of sand of a country
dredged by the countries and this ultimately helps us to depends on factors like GDP (%construction
find the trends in sand consumptions and future usage sector), GDP growth, country size,
of sand for every country. urbanization, total population, country energy
usage by country.
The environmental impact of in-stream mining might be
avoided if the annual bed load is calculated and the The algorithm may predict different values in
mining of aggregates restricted to that value or less some of the cases because of over fitting of
(Ashraf et al., 2011), but this process might be very the data, to avoid this confusion the average of
difficult to carry out because of the unavailability of all the values predicted is considered
scientific procedures and data on illegal sand mining.
Factors and features both mean the set of
So to avoid this problem, the maximum amount of
socio economic factors we assumed to be
sand that a country can dredge without affecting the
effecting the sand consumptions (GDP
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(%construction sector), GDP growth, country equation whatever it may be. So to find the existing
size, urbanization, total population (OUCHI) pattern, the non-linear regression comes into action, a
and energy usage by country) throughout this well-known set of Machine Leaning algorithms. This
paper. Machine Learning algorithm reverse-engineers the
whole process and predict the pattern, and also
The factors except the size and population are
predicts the importance of each assumed factor which
same for Taiwan and China
contribute to the countrys annual sand consumption
by learning the past data available.

Note: All the assumptions are valid throughout this


paper until and unless a deviation from these All the data is collected from U.S. Energy Information
assumptions are mentioned. Administration (EIA) and USGS Minerals. The data
also includes the total annual cement productions,
GDP (%construction sector), GDP growth, country
size, urbanization, total population, energy usage in 39
countries in Asia and Europe.

3 Algorithm modelling Strategies: 3.3 Non Linear Regression (Gradient Boosting):


3.1 Basic plot: Several analytical and numeral algorithms are
available for prediction and for regression. Some of
The sand dredged from the earth is mostly used by
these algorithms adopt linear-modelling for regression,
the nations construction sector for building
but for the collected data which is of very high
infrastructure and buildings. Since sand is one of the
dimensionality, a linear model cannot be an efficient
most naturally available commodities, the exports and
model since we cant assume the linear variation of
imports of natural sand is not very common. The mode
each factor in contributing to annual sand production
of construction varies for each country and so the
and moreover linear model algorithms assumes the
usage of naturally available building materials also
independence of the factors or features used for the
varies for each country. Practically, the consumption
regression which is not a valid assumption in this case.
of natural resources of a country can be reflected by
many socioeconomic indexes. In this particular paper,
we assume that the consumption of sand by a country
can depend on many factors like GDP (%construction For the analysis, a nonlinear regression called
sector), GDP growth, country size, urbanization, total Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) (Friedman, 2001)
population, country energy usage by country. Each is used. GBR uses an ensemble type of approach
factor will affect the future of sand consumptions of a which relies on combining a large number of relatively
particular country .The contribution of each factor to weak simple prediction decision tree models to obtain
the consumptions can be known by using non-linear a stronger prediction models (Bremen et al., 1984).
regression analysis. The forecasts for these The reason for selecting Gradient Boosting Regression
socioeconomic index are known for each country, among many ensemble approach algorithms is to train
which enables us to find the future consumptions of a new weak model, base learner with respect to the
sand. error of the whole ensemble model learnt so far, at
each iteration.
3.2 Regression:
At each iteration a new weak model, base learner is
Every factor mentioned above will contribute to the trained with respect to the error of the whole ensemble
countrys sand consumption, for example more the model learnt so far (Schapire, 2002), or simply, the
urban population in a country requires more the learning procedure consecutively fits new models to
infrastructure and buildings to accommodate people. provide a more accurate estimate of the response
But the importance of their contributions to the feature (Schapire, 2003).
countrys annual sand consumptions is not known.
There may be a pattern exists for this whole scenario,
but mathematically it is impossible to pin it down to find
a higher dimensional polynomial or the differential
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(Sand consumption offset) < Threshold


By using the linear classification called ridge classifier,
we can find the threshold. For example, In the case of
china the environment problems raised in between the
years 2008 and 2009. By tagging the data before 2008
and data after 2009 as 0 and 1 respectively, the
algorithm can find the best fit that distinguishes these
two data sets which is the value that alarms the
country, the threshold can be found by subtracting
consumption offset.

Particularly if there are any strong interactions in the


data or predictors are strongly correlated, they provide
a useful basis for interpretation (Friedman
2001; Friedman & Meulman 2003).

The most important concern about building a machine-


learning model from data is the resulting model's
generalization capabilities. If the learning Gradient
Boosting Regression algorithm is not applied properly,
the model can easily over fit the data (Hastie et al.
2001). So respective parametric tuning is done for this
algorithm.
The mathematical formulation of this Ridge classifier is
The mathematical formulation of this Gradient Boosting beyond the scope this paper.
Regression is beyond the scope this paper.

3.4 Classification algorithm: 4 Algorithm Final Outcomes:


Classification algorithm is used to find the threshold 1) The importance of each factor towards
value i.e. maximum amount of sand a country can contributing to the annual sand consumptions,
dredge without effecting the environment (John, 2009). overall:
The mining of aggregates can be restricted to the
After analyzing the available information using
threshold value or less (Ashraf et al., 2011). By
the GBR algorithm, we can predict and rank
assuming that the country with monotonically increase
the importance of each factor towards
in sand consumptions crosses its threshold at some
contributing to the annual sand consumptions
period of time. For example chinas sand
(Miller 1990). So we can actually figure out the
consumptions crosses its threshold in between the
most effective factor which we assumed is
year 2008 to 2009, in this period of time, the country
contributing the most to the annual sand
alarms on the issue of sand mining with some offset,
consumption in Asia and Europe. The relative
that is, it takes some time for a country to realize the
influence (or contribution) of each variable is
archaic situation. But the time offset cannot be
scaled so that the sum adds to 100, with
incorporated in this algorithm, so to avoid this problem,
higher numbers indicating stronger influence
it is valid to take consumption offset, that it country
on the response.
realizes the archaic situation after it loses some
amount of sand, which is not renewed naturally. The 2) The importance of each factor which affects
period of time where the sand consumption of a their own annual sand consumption throughout
country crosses its threshold can be found by citing the the years, nationwide
number of news articles on sand dredging and
social/political issues.
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By analyzing the data of a single nation over Table 1 Factor Importance Table
the years, we can anticipate the importance
Factor Importance
(Miller 1990) of each factor that contributed to
GDP from construction 4.71
the nations annual sand consumption. This
GDP growth 1.77
outcome varies from country to country
Urban population percentage 8.71
because each country has unique trends in
Urban population 41.9
development. This may look similar to the
Urban population Growth 8.83
above outcome, but these two outcomes give
Energy consumption 11.32
entirely two different perceptions. For example,
Size of country 8.83
if we look at the size of a country, the
Population 14.17
importance of the size factor towards nations'
sand consumption is 0 because the size of
the country doesnt change with time. But the From the above table, it is clear that urban population
importance of size factor worldwide is not zero factor is highly contributing. So urban population is the
because different countries have different one of most important factors that affect the annual
sizes. sand consumption in the countries of Asia and Europe.
This is because most of the countries, which are
3) Future sand consumptions
analyzed are developing states. As it is obvious that
By studying the past data of all nations in Asia urbanization is very eminent in the developing nations
and Europe, we can predict the future like India, Pakistan, China, etc. Because of this drastic
consumptions of each country. urbanization, countries need to build more and more
buildings to accommodate people, which ultimately
By keeping the mentioned constraints in mind and to require dredging huge amounts of naturally available
give following outcomes mentioned above, an building material resources.
algorithm is modelled and implemented by using
Python language, Sklearn, Numpy, Scipy. Urban population growth and urban population
percentage also comes under the urbanization factor.
4.1 Application of Implemented Algorithm to all The importance of urban population percentage is
Countries: relatively lower because the population of each country
While stating the assumptions, all the factors are itself is varying.
just assumed to be affecting the annual sand It is worth mentioning that this analysis is meant for all
consumptions, but the importance of each factor that 39 countries in the continents of Asia and Europe. If
contributes to the nations sand consumption are we do the same analysis for each country, urban
unknown, after a detailed study, the importance of population factor may not be the most important factor
each factor is predicted by using the implemented that contributed to their own sand consumption
algorithm. annually because the trends within each country vary
This paper discusses about the past scenario of over and so each factor contributes differently.
39 countries from Asia and Europe, but specifically So if all the countries in Europe and Asia can regulate
only 7 countries are focused in detail, which were their urbanization, simultaneously they can also
acknowledged as top consumers of sand in both the regulate the sand consumption as a whole.
continents. However all the data of 39 countries is
used for training the model. The next most important factor that contributed to the
annual sand consumption in the countries of Asia and
Europe is population factor. It is obvious that if country
After studying the data of all 39 countries over past 2 has more population, country need to build more
decades, the importance of each factor contributing
infrastructure to manage its total population so it need
towards the national annual consumption of sand in
both Asia and Europe is found. to dredge more naturally available resources.

Energy consumption is the highest among developed


nations. Empirically there is a positive relation between
energy use and economic growth (Shafiee and Topal
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2008, Smil 2008, Payne 2010), so there will be a each factor towards nations sand consumptions are as
positive relation between annual sand consumptions follows
and energy consumption per captia. The importance is
relatively high comparing to the other factors assumed.

4.2 Factor Importance

Construction is a major industry throughout the


world accounting for a sizeable proportion of most
countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Roger
Hosien, 2007) and Gross National Product (GNP),
(Sitsabo Dlamin, UK). So GDP is also one of the
important factors that contributes to the sand
consumptions as it is suggested by the factor
importance Table (Tab-1). The most important factor is Energy consumption
followed by urban population and population (Lie Shen,
5 Analysis on Each Country in Detail: 2010). It is worth noting that the importance to the size
of country factor is nil, it is because the size of the
Its time to look at each country in detail by running
country doesnt change with time.
the same analysis, the future sand consumptions of
each country and importance of each factor can be So from the above prediction made, it is obvious that, if
predicted using the implemented algorithm. Only 7 china can regulate its energy consumption,
countries which were recognized as the top consumers urbanization and population, it can indirectly regulate
of sand are explained in this article. the nations annual sand consumptions.

5.1 China: By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the


sand consumption can be predicted by assuming that
During the past 15 years, China's economy and
China alarms in the year 2011, when over 500
consumption have grown rapidly (David Menzie, 2004).
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
China is recognized as the highest consumer of the
naturally renewed without government concern.
cement commodity so it also requires sand to build its
infrastructure. China used more cement between 2011
and 2013 than the USA used in entire 20th century. By
running the implemented algorithm, the importance of
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Table 2 the anticipated values of each factor: By running the algorithm implemented, the importance
CHINA of each factor towards nations sand consumptions are
Factor 2015 2016 as follows
GDP from 50.5 % 52 %
construction
GDP GROWTH 7 6.9
Urban 56.6 % 57.9 %
Population
Percentage
Urban 779,478,624 799,964,410
population
Urban 2.68 2.45
population
Growth
Energy 3741 3802
consumption
SIZE of country 9388230 9388230
Population 1,376,048,943 1,382,323,332

There is a decline in the sand consumption, this is


apparently because of our assumptions that imports
and exports are neglected and also may be due to
reducing consumptions of energy by China in the year
of 2015 and 2016 (Malin Song,2011).
So from the above graph it is clear that china need to
regulate its sand consumptions and go for sand
substitutes to avoid ecological problem. The amounts
of substitutes should be used are as follows.
1) China sand consumption 2015 = 4559824.98
Thousand metric tons

2) China sand consumption 2016 = 4647231.96


Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption = The most important factor that contributed to Indias
4138500 Thousand metric tons sand consumption is urban population factor followed
by energy consumption and urban population
4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 431234 percentage. So if Indian government can regulate its
Thousand metric tons energy usages and urbanization, theoretically, it can
regulate its construction sand usage
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 508731
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of
Thousand metric tons
the sand consumption can be predicted by assuming
5.2 India that India alarms in the year 2011, when over 50
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
The Indian cement industry has evolved naturally renewed without government concern.
significantly in the last two decades. In India, the
cement industry is the second most consumed material
on the planet. India has contributed almost 8 per cent
to Indias economic development, the demand for
cement is on an upward trend, further addition to
capacity is coming up to cater to the increasing
demand for cements (Manjula devi,2015)
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Table 3 the anticipated values of each factor: implemented, the importance of each factor towards
INDIA nations sand consumptions are as follows
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 33 34.2
construction
GDP_GROWTH 7.9 8.0
Urban 32 32.4
Population
Percentage
Urban 419938867 429802441
population
Urban 2.61 1.5
population
Growth
Energy 810 850
consumption
SIZE of country 2973790 2973790
Population 1311050527 1326801576

From the above graph there is a drastic increase in the


consumptions of sand from 2014 to 2015 and 2016.
For developing nations like India, government needs to
dredge huge amounts of sand to build its
infrastructure. India needs to rapidly act against the
sand mining, according to our predicted values; India is
using more than double the threshold values.

1) India sand consumption 2015 = 852111.38


Thousand metric tons

2) India sand consumption 2016 = 936440.95


Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption = The most important factor that contributed to
478950 Thousand metric tons Russias sand consumption is by energy consumption
4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 373161 followed Urban population and GDP from construction.
Thousand metric tons So if Russian government can regulate its energy
usages and urbanization, theoretically, it can regulate
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 457490 its construction sand usage
Thousand metric tons
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of
5.3 Russia the sand consumption can be predicted by assuming
that Russia alarms in the year 2009, when over 50
Russia reached a record-high level of cement
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
consumption. Analysts expect demand to grow
naturally renewed without government concern.
significantly by 2020 amid the modernization of the
Russia (E-Y cement industry). Russia economic power
and its cement markets are showing a sustained
growth of around nine to ten per cent. Most of the
cement is produced domestically with wet-process
technology, but as the market expands, changes are
afoot (Cem-net). By running the algorithm
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Table 4 the anticipated values of each factor:


RUSSIA
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 41.3 43.3
construction
GDP_GROWTH -2.7 0.7
Urban Population 73.3 73.2
Percentage
Urban population 105163529 105163529
Urban population 0.18 -0.14
Growth
Energy 6900 7200
consumption
SIZE of country 16377960 16377960
Population 143456918 143439832

There is a decrease in usage of sand, this is due to


decrease in urbanization, which is one of the most
important factor that contributes to the sand
consumptions. From the predictions it is clear that both
the annual sand consumption of 2015 and 2016 are
within the threshold value.

1) Russias sand consumption 2015 = 112372.25


Thousand metric tons

2) Russias sand consumption 2016 = 104068.40


Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption =


The most important factor that contributed to Japans
115950 Thousand metric tons
sand consumption is by urban population followed
4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 0 urban population percentage and GDP from
Thousand metric tons construction. So if Japanese government can regulate
its GDP from construction sector and urbanization,
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 0 theoretically, it can regulate its construction sand
Thousand metric tons usage. There is a decrease in usage of sand, this is
due to decrease in urbanization, which is one of the
most important factor that contributes to the sand
5.4 Japan
consumptions. By running classification algorithm, the
Japan, decades since have witnessed the relented threshold of the sand consumption cannot be predicted
pursuit of technological development, economic growth by the algorithm implemented, this is because the
as a construction basic materials industry and other values are non- monotonic which inhibits algorithm to
steady expansion and progress. Today, the sector predict the threshold value of the annual sand
ranks as a world leader in terms of production, quality, consumption.
energy-saving technology, labor productivity, industrial
waste and by-product technological initiatives and on
other fronts. By running the algorithm implemented, the
importance of each factor towards nations sand
consumptions are as follows:
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Table 5 the anticipated values of each factor:


JAPAN
Factor Importance
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 27.2 28 Thailand Urban population
growth
construction Urban population
GDP_GROWTH 1.1 1.7 10.0% 8.1%
Urban Population 93.7 94.1 0.0% Urban population
10.6%
Percentage 10.4% percentage
Urban population 118572468 118911665 GDP growth
Urban population 0.45 0.42 11.1%
GDP from
Growth construction
Energy 7900 8100 Population
31.6%
consumption 18.2%
SIZE of country 364500 364500 Size of the
country
Population 126573481 126323715

1) Japans sand consumption 2015 = 107648.78


Thousand metric tons
2) Japans sand consumption 2016 = 116584.99
Thousand metric tons

5.5 Thailand
Thailands cement industry was buoyed by the
countrys pro-economic growth policies and
government sponsored infrastructure investments in
2012. Cement consumption grew by a healthy 16% y/y
in 3Q12. A forecast 5% increase in GDP will help lift
cement demand in 2013 as the economy picks up
again. With massive infrastructure projects in the The most important factor that contributed to
construction output is expected to grow on average by Thailands sand consumption is GDP from
4.7% through 2020, according to the countrys construction, followed GDP growth and urban
construction Ministry. The algorithm which we population percentage. So if Thailand government can
implemented have some over fitting in the case of regulate its GDP from construction and urbanization,
Thailands annual sand consumption future prediction, theoretically, it can regulate its construction sand
so to avoid this over fitting the algorithm is tunes usage
accordingly. By running the edited algorithm
implemented, the importance of each factor towards By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the
nations sand consumptions are as sand consumption can be predicted by assuming that
follows: Thailand alarms in the year 2008, when over 50
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
naturally renewed without government concern.
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Table 6 the anticipated values of each factor:


THAILAND
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 38 39.2
construction
GDP_GROWTH 3.5 4.0
Urban Population 50 51.1
Percentage
Urban population 33952234 34810313
Urban population 2.44 2.2
Growth
Energy 2800 3000
consumption
SIZE of country 510890 510890
Population 67959359 68146609

There is an increase in usage of consumption, this is


due to increase in the GDP growth of the country and
the growth in urbanization.

1) Thailands sand consumption 2015 = 81496.25


Thousand metric tons

2) Thailands sand consumption 2016 = 85788.22


Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption =


76950 Thousand metric tons.

4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 4546


Thousand metric tons The most important factor that contributed to
Germanys sand consumption is urban population,
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 8838 followed GDP from construction and population. So if
Thousand metric tons German government can regulate its GDP from
construction and urbanization, theoretically, it can
regulate its construction sand usage.
5.6 Germany
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the
While German cement consumption has been
sand consumption can be predicted by assuming that
falling since 1999, 2004 and 2006 have provided some
country alarms in the year 2001, when over 50
hope to cement producers as very modest increases
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
were noted. However, the fragmented industry
naturally renewed without government concern.
continues to suffer from considerable overcapacity.
The algorithm which we implemented have some over
fitting in the case of Germanys annual sand
consumption future prediction, so to avoid this over
fitting the algorithm is tunes accordingly. By running
the edited algorithm implemented, the importance of
each factor towards nations sand consumptions are as
follows:
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Table 7 The anticipated values of each factor:


GERMANY
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 36.97 37.1
construction
GDP_GROWTH 1.552 1.81
Urban Population 77 77.2
Percentage
Urban population 62170091 62260626
Urban population 0.4 0.25
Growth
Energy 7375 7440
consumption
SIZE of country 349090 349090
Population 80688545 80682351

1) Germanys sand consumption 2015 =


62977.93 Thousand metric tons

2) Germanys sand consumption 2016 =


72300.41 Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption =


67000 Thousand metric tons.

4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 0


Thousand metric tons

5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 5300


Thousand metric tons
The most important factor that contributed to Italys
5.7 Italy sand consumption is urban population, followed GDP
from construction and population. So if Italy
As the excessive spending of the Berlusconi
government can regulate its GDP from construction
government draws to an end, the Italian construction
and urbanization, theoretically, it can regulate its
market is set to cool down. With the focus of cement
construction sand usage.
consumption moving southwards, it is expected that
per capita cement consumption will remain broadly By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the
maintained. The algorithm which we implemented sand consumption cannot be predicted by the
have some over fitting in the case of Italys annual implemented algorithm, because the values are non-
sand consumption future prediction, so to avoid this monotonic which enables algorithm to predict the
over fitting the algorithm is tunes accordingly. By threshold value of the annual sand consumption.
running the edited algorithm implemented, the
importance of each factor towards nations sand
consumptions are as follows:
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Table 8 the anticipated values of each factor: data is not considered due to unavailability of data, but
ITALY the kind of analysis adopted to tackle this situation
Factor 2015 2016 helps to monitor sustainability and environmental
GDP from 22.7 22.1 impacts. This kind of study may extend from a states
construction construction sector to the scale of Global construction
GDP_GROWTH 0.68 0.73 sector. These studies are precise enough to raise this
Urban Population 70.5 70.7 issue on the political agenda and perhaps lead to an
Percentage international framework to improve extraction
Urban population 42166069 42306608 governance if there is reliable source for data. Further
Urban population 1.58 0.28 research work is required on implementing statistical
Growth analysis and the governments need to stress on the
Energy 5500 5600 data collection, which is very important in assessing
consumption the impacts of these environmental hazards.
SIZE of country 294110 294110
Population 59797685 59801004
1) Italys sand consumption 2015 = 42638.81
Thousand metric tons 7 References
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