Asset Management
Risks 06
Infrastructure
Update 2015
A defensive component in portfolios can consider expected returns for the asset class, the key risks of
enhance long-term overall returns infrastructure investment and the key attributes of best-in-
class infrastructure managers
Infrastructure continues to attract attention amongst the investment
community in the UK and around the world. The UK government
has formalised its commitment to future infrastructure planning
and investment by setting investment targets. Defining infrastructure assets
The government plans to implement a total of GBP 460 billion Infrastructure is defined as the permanent facilities and
in infrastructure investment spending in Public and Private structures that a society requires to facilitate the orderly
investment to the end of the decade and beyond, much of it operation of its economy. Examples include:
in the transportation and energy sectors.
Transportation such as toll roads, airports, ports, bridges,
This has led to further interest in the market, particularly tunnels and rail
from pension funds that are attracted to the proposed
benefits of infrastructure. These include its long-term nature, Utility and energy infrastructure such as water and wastewater
generally defensive characteristics and low correlation with services, power generation, electricity and gas networks and
other asset classes. fuel storage facilities
There are currently 148 unlisted infrastructure fund vehicles Communications infrastructure such as transmission towers
in the market actively seeking capital1. Capital raising,
globally, peaked in 2013 with a high over USD 50 billion and Social infrastructure such as education, recreation, waste
in 2014, USD 46.3 billion was raised (see Figure 7.1). management and healthcare facilities.
Figure 7.1 Annual Infrastructure fundraising, 2000-2015 Like real estate, infrastructure is not homogenous. It spans the
risk-return spectrum from lower risk public private partnerships
Year Number of Funds Aggregate Capital Raised (PPP) in developed countries, with availability-based revenue
(USD bn)
streams, up to more private equity-like and therefore higher
2000 7 1.1 risk assets, such as merchant power plants.
2001 1 0.2
2002 4 1.4 The high barriers to entry and the monopoly-like
2003 4 1.1 characteristics of typical infrastructure assets mean their
financial performance should not be as sensitive to the
2004 10 4.4
economic cycle as many other asset classes.
2005 24 9.8
2006 37 23.5 Investments are generally lower risk, given the stable and
2007 45 45.4 growing demand for the essential services provided, together
2008 63 41.0 with regulation of the businesses, long-term contractual
2009 33 11.0
protection of revenues, or both.
2010 59 35.4
However, the structure of the revenue side of the business
2011 59 26.2 is very important to achieving this lower risk aspect of the
2012 74 36.9 investment. For example, a power generation business with
2013 84 51.5 long-term power purchase agreements has a very different
2014 64 46.3 risk profile to the same generation business with full merchant
(wholesale power market) risk.
2015 YTD 13 13.1
Source: Preqin, 16 June 2015 Globally, only a small fraction of infrastructure assets are
listed or under private ownership. Notable examples include
With many investment options available, first-time investors the water sector in the UK and the power generation
may find it difficult to identify the role of infrastructure sector in North America. There is substantial potential for
should play in their portfolio and match it to the appropriate increased private ownership. Drivers of future investment
manager. In the following discussion, we outline some key in the sector include demographic trends, the increasing
characteristics of infrastructure and give an overview of role of private capital and increasing turnover of already
the asset class in the current market environment. We also privately held infrastructure.
1
Source: Preqin, 16 June 2015
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Infrastructure Update 2015
In general, investors who focus on yield and managing long-term Inflation protection: revenues associated with infrastructure
liabilities, such as pension funds, should find core infrastructure assets are often hedged, or partly hedged, against the impact
attractive. In addition to offering enhanced diversification, investors of inflation either through an inflation element incorporated
can use infrastructure to help match their liability profile in the price or revenue formula of the relevant regulatory or
with a reasonably predictable and partly inflation-linked contractual arrangements, or through the pricing power of
distribution stream. the business based on the essential nature of the services
provided. The extent to which this provides effective inflation
Given its relatively low correlation with traditional asset classes, protection depends on management decisions in respect of
infrastructure can also play a valuable role in the risk-return operational costs and capital structure.
optimisation of a portfolio and, in our view, should be considered
in strategic asset allocation decisions. It is this combination of characteristics that supports the
argument that infrastructure warrants its own allocation within
an investment portfolio. These funds are well-suited to pension
funds or clients seeking steady, reliable returns.
Infrastructure as an asset class
The infrastructure fund manager is responsible for the sourcing
The increase of infrastructure funds in the market offers investors of deal flow, the execution of transactions on behalf of the
multiple options from core to development and private fund (both acquisitions, and later in the life of the fund,
equity investment opportunities. A portfolio of defensive or divestments), and the ongoing management of those assets
core infrastructure assets is characterised by the following held by the fund.
investment characteristics: low correlation with other asset
classes, cash yield and a degree of inflation protection: Infrastructure managers employ execution and asset
management executives that are comparable to private equity
Low correlation: each infrastructure asset typically has unique investment teams, albeit with specific skills and experience in
revenue drivers and risks. This characteristic generally causes a relation to the regulatory and market considerations that apply
lower correlation between the performance of infrastructure to infrastructure assets.
as an asset class and the performance of other asset classes.
Some business drivers are more closely related to GDP growth
(for example, ports) while others are more closely related to
population growth (for example, water utilities). Consequently, How does infrastructure compare with
there are differing correlations with traditional equities within other asset classes?
the infrastructure asset class.
Infrastructure investment shares some of the characteristics
Cash yield: infrastructure assets typically require significant of fixed income (long-term predictable cash yield), real
initial capital expenditure and have long operational lives, often estate (investing in physical assets) and private equity
spanning between 30 and 100 years, or more. Such assets are (geared investment, albeit with substantial differences in the
usually regulated or underpinned by long-term contracts which underlying risk).
typically provide a reasonably predictable yield. Development
assets generally provide no yield during construction and lower The similarities and differences between infrastructure and
yields during initial operations. However, cash yields usually other asset classes are summarised in Figure 7.2.
increase over time as the asset matures and utilisation increases.
Similarities Differences
Private equity Management control over investments Different risk-return objective; lower exposure to economic cycle
Converging investment techniques Longer investment horizon, return less driven by exit strategy
Strong cash yield / Lower capital growth
Real estate Cash yield is significant part of return Control over operating companies
Absolute return objective focus Barriers to entry; less exposure to valuation cycles
Importance of location Longer cashflow predictability, higher gearing
Normally larger individual asset size
Equities Equity ownership Lower level of securitisation/liquidity
Upside return potential Lower correlation with business cycle
Relatively predictable and high cash yield
Fixed income Long-term, predictable cash yield Asset ownership
Long duration asset Growth/Upside potential
Low market risk Inflation hedge features
Indirect exposure to interest risk
3
In terms of return expectations for infrastructure compared that the PPP/private finance initiatives (PFI) are the sectors least
to other asset classes, Figure 7.3 generically depicts the risk/ in focus in 2013, compared to regulated utilities which are
return spectrum across various asset classes and within attracting the most attention.
infrastructure sub-sectors.
Mature assets in contracted and regulated sectors usually generate Regulatory and sovereign risk
high single to low double-digit returns. Renewable energy As infrastructure is often a monopoly, it is commonly regulated
infrastructure returns are also typically at that level. Additional by governments either through systems set by regulators
risk premia are required for market exposure (e.g. patronage or through long-term concessions. In such circumstances,
and commodity risks) and development and construction risks. regulatory independence and consistency, as well as government
capacity to unilaterally amend concession terms, are key
A survey conducted in 2013 by Deloitte reveals investors preferences risk factors. This is closely allied to broader sovereign risks
for the various infrastructure sub-sectors by the level of focus which also need to be considered e.g. whether to invest in
investors will have in the next two years. Figure 7.4 shows distressed or emerging economies.
Figure 7.4 Investor preference for infrastructure sub-sectors (5 being very high and 1 being very low)
0
Other Airports Renewables Rail/Metro Water Ports Roads Telecoms Other Waste Infrastructure PPP/PFI
regulated utilities transport services
Source: Where next on the road ahead? Deloitte Infrastructure Investors Survey 2013, Deloitte, p14
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Infrastructure Update 2015
A more detailed discussion of regulatory and sovereign risk of conducting extensive due diligence before making an
can be found in the section that follows below titled Key issues investment and the need for the investment team to be
in 2015 and beyond. broadly skilled. A toll road and hospital, for example, have
unique characteristics that will influence their distinctive risk
profile. Consequently, as is the case with most investing, it
Contractual and credit risk is important to ensure that risks are fully understood at the
Along with regulatory protections, contractual protections are outset and that the portfolio is appropriately diversified and
key defensive characteristics of infrastructure. For example, balanced. The above risks are not exhaustive and should be
a portfolio of electricity generation facilities takes on infrastructure read in conjunction with the detailed risk factors set out in the
characteristics if its power output is pre-sold under long-term private placement memorandum relating to a fund.
contracts. Without such contracts, the portfolio would be exposed
to the often substantial fluctuations of commodity and
spot-market power prices. Such contracts, therefore, provide Investing in infrastructure
fundamental protections but the contractual compliance and With a recent increase in funds in the infrastructure sector,
creditworthiness of the counter-parties thus becomes a key risk a growing number of pension funds and other institutional
to assess and manage before and throughout the life of investors across the world are looking to include infrastructure
an investment. in their investment portfolios. Investment in infrastructure can
generally be made in five broad forms, which, in approximate
order of ascending sophistication and difficulty of execution
Operational risk for a prospective infrastructure investor, are:
Infrastructure has operational risks. A regulated water and
sewage company, for example, may incur sewer flooding Listed funds listed funds invest in direct infrastructure, listed
during prolonged heavy rainfall where sewage systems reach infrastructure or both, and are usually externally managed
their hydraulic capacity. While the company can do some
forward planning, the full cost of these measures may not Listed stocks there is a large universe of listed stocks in the
be taken into account at the relevant periodic review and the infrastructure sector including utilities
incident could adversely affect the companys results.
Fund of funds a fund of infrastructure funds invests in a
diverse portfolio of infrastructure funds
Construction risk
Greenfield projects involve construction risks though such Unlisted funds unlisted funds invest directly in infrastructure
risks can be mitigated through proper structuring, including on behalf of their limited partners
back-to-back pass down of key construction risks to the
contractor; contracting with a credit-worthy contractor, Direct infrastructure investment
monitoring and managing against timetable and budget
during construction and contingency planning.
Where cost effective and sufficiently flexible, managers will Investment team experience and regional presence
also use longer dated debt to reduce refinancing risk. Cashflow Investment team quality is paramount to the success of an
values may also be eroded by inflation where the regulated, infrastructure fund. The team needs to demonstrate in-depth
or contracted cashflows, do not move in whole or part with sector know-how, strong transactional capabilities including
inflation, or where the monopolistic market position of the principal investing, advisory work and capital markets
infrastructure does not allow the owner to recoup inflation experience and deep asset-level operational experience.
costs from the asset user. In addition, regional on-the-ground presence is important
to understanding the environment in which a company or
The above risks will have varying degrees of influence on fund operates. As the asset class matures, fund managers
whether an infrastructure investment is appropriate in performance becomes more visible, allowing an investor to
any risk-return assessment. They highlight the importance assess performance against their stated fund mandate.
5
Opportunity sourcing and investment process changes adversely impact income trust tax treatment, power
With many managers seeking infrastructure investments, generation and renewables. In Portugal, PPP contracts have
access to quality opportunities and a disciplined investment been renegotiated. The retrospective changes to Spanish
process are crucial. Successful fund managers have a feed in tariffs for renewables are well-known. Non-payment
good reputation as transaction counter-parties; a broad by public entities can also affect contracted or volume driven
and deep network to source investment opportunities, a assets similar to adverse regulatory developments.
record of remaining within their mandate (i.e. no style drift)
and the experience and skill to select the most attractive Higher regulatory risk coupled with the need for large
opportunities. amounts of private investment in infrastructure will likely
lead to stronger protection mechanisms and new approaches
to allocate risks in the long run. As a result, the cost of
Asset management capabilities capital would rise making it an unattractive option for
Ongoing asset management of infrastructure may be either governments trying to attract efficiently priced private
passive in the case of smaller stakes in listed investments funding. However, this possible scenario does not mitigate
or active in the case of significant stakes in either listed risk for existing investments.
or private investments, including direct investments. In the
case of active management, a high quality manager will seek In the meantime, investors need to recognise the exposure
to add value by pursuing a hands-on asset management of assets to political and regulatory risk and factor this into
approach with a particular focus on areas such as strategic investment decisions.
planning, enhancement of operational performance and
optimisation of capital management.
Climate change
The impact of potential climate change upon infrastructure
Conflicts of interest should be considered at all stages of investment. Climate
Close alignment of interest between the fund manager and change subsidies and other support to the renewable energy
investors is essential; put simply, fund managers should sector also provide a good example of the potential impact
profit if investors profit. Investors increasingly focus on of policy and associated regulations on investment activity.
strict governance, transparent conflicts management and
transparent fee structures. Over the past decade, the experience of investors in
Germany, Spain and some of the North American regions,
demonstrated the extent to which subsidies can accelerate
the development of the sector but also cause a slowdown
Key issues in 2015 and beyond in development activity once economic support is reduced
and, potentially, substantial losses for those investors
Even the best infrastructure fund managers are facing new excessively reliant upon subsidies.
challenges in the changing macroeconomic environment.
There is a large number of country, sub-sector specific
or short-term issues that go beyond the scope of this Government finances
document. However, below we highlight some of the Deteriorated government finances, especially in many
globally relevant, medium to long-term key issues: developed countries, represent another important issue
for infrastructure investors. Fiscal stress suggests that
private capital will increasingly be needed for financing
Regulatory and sovereign risk infrastructure capital expenditures.
Recent developments underline the regulatory risks faced by
infrastructure investors. In Europe in particular, retrospective Concern around public finance sustainability will require
legislative or regulatory change has increased. Even countries governments to reduce spending and find alternative
with hard earned reputations for stability have succumbed infrastructure financing. These drivers should create
to regulatory opportunism. The decision by the Norwegian investment opportunities. Furthermore, the way
government to unilaterally reduce capital tariffs on new governments deal with their financial balances will be an
bookings for future Gassled capacity contracts by 90% is an important driver of economic growth. Indirectly, this will
example of such changes. affect infrastructure projects exposed to demand volatility.
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Infrastructure Update 2015
Investment returns
There has been a significant increase in recent years in the
number of infrastructure funds and the size of assets under
management. However, this does not necessarily reflect a
disproportionate supply of capital chasing infrastructure
assets. The market expansion reflects the rapid development
of the asset class from a low base rather than an oversupply
of capital. Expected returns have declined across a number
of markets and asset classes partly due to the expansionary
monetary policy response to the global financial crisis and also
reflecting a post crisis shift in credit standards (i.e. tolerance
for leverage). However, on a risk-return basis, infrastructure
remains a compelling asset class.
7
An overview of infrastructure debt long term credit performance compared to corporate debt,
with BBB rated infrastructure debt showing comparable
Investing in infrastructure debt offers institutional investors default rates to A rated corporate debt (Figure 7.7), whilst also
exposure to assets with expected long-term stable cash showing lower rating volatility (Figure 7.8).
flows at historically attractive yields while offering borrowers
access to much needed liquidity.
The opportunity in Europe
The current market imbalance between demand and supply We view the OECD as the area with the most opportunity
of debt for the infrastructure sector presents significant for institutional capital given the significant requirement to
opportunities for institutional capital. The infrastructure finance new, and help replace, ageing infrastructure. These
finance market has been impacted negatively by the financial markets also benefit from a more developed regulatory
crisis with traditional lenders struggling to meet demand framework and legal system compared to other jurisdictions.
from borrowers. This is particularly evident in Europe where In particular, Europe is highlighted as a very attractive
new solutions, such as infrastructure debt funds, have been investment opportunity due to the highest market dislocation.
developed to promote an institutional debt capital market
for the infrastructure sector. Deleveraging of banks and budgetary constraints for
governments have reduced the availability of debt capital,
As infrastructure debt investing remains a complex area creating the need for alternative sources of capital, such as
and easily accessible assets are hard to find, asset managers insurance companies and pension funds. North America has
should help bring institutional investors closer to this new traditionally relied less heavily on bank debt due to more
attractive asset class. developed capital markets while Australia has experienced less
drastic deleveraging compared to Europe.
8
Figure 7.5 Infrastructure Requirements to 2030 Figure 7.8 Credit rating volatility
Notch volatility
Transportation
USD billion
0.5
1,500
Public spending 0.4
1,000
0.3
Utilities & Energy
500 Private spending 0.2
0 0.1
Annual infrastructure requirement Annual infrastructure spending 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sources: OECD. Note: 2013 to 2030, USD 50 trillion in 2010 prices Infrastructure Corporates
OECD, McKinsey, Infrastructure Journal, UBS
Source: Moodys Infrastructure Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2013
Figure 7.6 Cumulative default rates and average recovery rates Figure 7.9 European PF Investment, by funding type
Manufacturing 10
0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bank loans IFI loans Total
Source: Moodys Default and Recovery Rates for Project Finance Bank Loans, 1983-2012 Source: Infra Journal
Figure 7.7 Cumulative annual default rates Figure 7.10 Split of European infrastructure debt finance
4.0 9%
3.5
Loans
3.0
Bonds
2.5
2.0
%
1.5
1.0
91 %
0.5
0.0
Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr4 Yr5 Yr6 Yr7 Yr8 Yr9 Yr10
A Corporates BBB Corporates BBB Infrastructure
Source: Moodys Infrastructure Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2013 Source: IJGlobal European Infrastructure Outlook 2013
9
Why infrastructure debt funds? traditionally available to fixed income institutional investors
In the continuing search for financing solutions which buying infrastructure bonds in the capital markets. Access
match the nature of infrastructure assets, a key development to these deals requires experience, expertise and a strong
for capital investments has been the recent move by network. Some large investors have decided to build
many asset managers to establish funds or platforms for experienced teams and invest directly but this requires an
institutional investors which raise specialist debt vehicles investment of both time and resources.
to invest in infrastructure debt.
The key benefit of investing in an infrastructure fund is
The investment strategy of such debt vehicles varies the expected alpha over a traditional infrastructure debt
between the infrastructure sub-sectors, from bonds to portfolio. A somewhat passive return of base rate +150 to
loans, senior to subordinated, primary and secondary 200 basis points is expected based on the credit spreads
market. The vehicle structures tend to be either pooled and illiquidity premium.
funds or separate managed accounts. There are funds
focused only on mezzanine debt or senior debt, or on the A further 200 basis points may be achieved by: identifying
broader debt capital structure. and investing in dislocated market segments affected by
a lack of capital supply; being proactive in sourcing and
The merits of investing in an infrastructure debt fund accessing private/proprietary debt financings in the primary
are the access to private complex debt transactions, the market; ensuring direct involvement in structuring to
expertise in capturing potential attractive risk-adjusted identify and mitigate risks and avoid intermediation costs;
returns in dislocated debt market segments, and the ability having the flexibility to invest in different debt instruments
to tailor the investment to the specific objectives and and layers of the capital structure to select the best
regulatory requirements of the clients (such as Solvency II). opportunities; and engaging borrowers in early refinancing,
bond takeouts, consent or duration fees to generate
The proposed risk-return opportunity offered by investing additional yield.
in an infrastructure debt fund is more attractive than that
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Infrastructure Update 2015
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12
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