Exhibition & Conference

4-7 APRIL 2017

Makuhari Messe Chiba,
Tokyo, Japan

eBook
17 Industry Leaders Views on the
Future for Gas & LNG to 2025
In light of Gastech 2017, the worlds largest gas and LNG exhibition
and conference, we asked the Gastech Governing Body Members
for their thoughts on how the global gas and LNG industry will
develop over the next 10 years.

With a number of new challenges and opportunities shaping

the future of the international gas and LNG market, this eBook
details the views of 17 key industry leaders, in alphabetical order,
representing both the commercial and technical fronts.

We hope you will enjoy the eBook and hope you can join us for
more incredible insights at Gastech 2017, Chiba - Tokyo.

Kind regards,

Cristina Lando
Online Content Manager, Gastech News
The demand for LNG is growing at an average of ten million tonnes
per year. Supply and demand will be balancing out at around 2022
or 2023. After 2023, the additional demand for a period of three
years thereafter will therefore be about 30 million tonnes.

That is volume for only six larger scale LNG trains, with a size
of five million tonnes each. To increase the demand, we have to
support a greater level of consumption of LNG. LNG, as everybody
knows, is a very good energy type for minimizing CO2 emissions.
To grow further, we have to support developing countries in
building economical solutions and gas or LNG to power projects,
such as FSRU units with power plants.

Tsutomu Akabane
Director, Senior Executive Vice President
JGC Corporation
While the LNG industry is going through a difficult time right now
with low prices and challenges to developing projects, we think
the industry is more creative now than its been in a very long
time. LNG companies are growing and creating demand - there are
companies out there that are finding ways to expand markets and
to open up new markets. That demand will be the growth of the
industry. This is no longer just a bulk business of selling bulk LNG
to bulk buyers for bulk consumption.

These are niche markets or smaller markets - markets that require

much more innovation around pricing, terms and delivery systems.
The LNG industry is showing tremendous creativity, and this will
develop in Africa, South America and South East Asia, which will
become long term customers that have not existed before. This will
be very good for the long term health of the industry.

Jason Bennett
Partner, Deputy Department Chair, Global Projects Group
Baker Botts
With new exports coming out of Australia and the U.S. Gulf,
more LNG is coming into the world than ever before. Having more
natural gas in the energy mix will lead to cleaner air and lower
CO2 emissions. Were seeing new customers in new markets, for
example in the Middle East and in South America. Well see more of
that trend in the next five to ten years.

Roger Bounds
Vice President, Global Gas
Shell
 Natural gas is facing three big hurdles. Firstly, King Coal is
still present, especially in Asia where coal usage may hamper the
development of natural gas in the power sector. Secondly, the
share of renewables for new-built electric power everywhere in the
world is increasing through constantly decreasing costs. Thirdly,
the current low price of crude oil is making it difficult for investors
who want to use LNG as a fuel for heavy transportation.

There are hurdles, but the beauty of LNG is that because it can be
shipped easily from place to place, the natural gas industry will be
able to develop almost everywhere in the world. I strongly feel that
LNG usage in heavy transportation has a real future as bunker for
ships, trucks, locomotives and maybeaviation.

Guy Broggi
Senior LNG Advisor
Total
One idea that is currently being put to the test is the economic
viability of large scale LNG facilities using small scale plants. On
the surface, this idea seems counterintuitive to chasing economies
of scale, but the concept must be fully vetted to improve the
economics of projects in these unique times. To challenge
economies of scale, one must develop a configuration where
fabrication, modularization, and constructability reduce CAPEX
instead of increase CAPEX. This outcome can be achieved through
standardization and replication; making the trains small enough
to be repeatable and large enough to be economically viable.
Although CAPEX is a strong function of civil and infrastructure, the
ideal train size and execution strategy is up for debate to achieve
the lowest cost.

Another development is the technical and commercial viability of

Floating LNG. The deployment of PFLNG Satu and Prelude LNG
will test different ranges of the FLNG spectrum and will determine
if other projects will follow in their path. When thinking about
FLNG, lets also not discount barge mounted plants as these small
plants may find ways to improve capital cost by not being forced to
mimic the size and scale of large FPSOs or LNG carriers.

Christopher Caswell
Director LNG and FLNG
KBR
Throughout the liquefied gas business, global economic pressures
have focused their attention both on innovation and cost reduction.
We see this in the production side, where floating LNG production is
now becoming a reality, and in imports where lower-cost fuel can
be delivered at competitive prices by innovative floating re-gas units.
In the past, the LNG industry has focused on economies of scale.
Today, we see small-scale trades developing quickly, and of course,
cargo trading flexibility has evolved to suit this new reality and will
continue to develop as smaller ships & trades are introduced.

Clean energy is of course the main driver for the expansion we see
in the natural gas & LNG markets. This also applies to the LPG sector,
which is also changing. The newly-widened Panama Canal has
opened the fast-developing US Shale Gas exports to the large Asian
market. New LPG projects are planned for sub-Saharan Africa and
several Caribbean islands, while the petrochemical sector will see
increased competition between Naphtha and Ethane as feedstock
for the crackers. All of these trends make the LPG sector particularly
interesting.

Chris Clucas
Group Fleet Director
Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement Ltd
As theres a lot of LNG available, we need to look at other ways
of distributing LNG and finding new markets. At GTT, we heavily
believe that LNG will develop going forward. For example, in
conventional shipping, using LNG as a propulsion system instead of
heavy fuel oil or other alternatives such as low sulfur oil or scrubbers
to reduce emissions on the vessels. Were seeing changes in
emission control areas like North America and northern Europe, and
deep sea shipping could potentially be involved if the International
Maritime Organization proposes it or requires it from the market.

If LNG is used in shipping you could, in theory, have 50% of current

LNG consumption being used in shipping. I think thats still a
long way off but this is where the market could go. In addition,
there could be developments in small scale distribution of LNG
or distribution of LNG to people who dont use LNG today as an
alternative fuel to electricity generation, such as Indonesia, the
Philippines, Vietnam and areas that are more isolated and would
require smaller scale distribution. This is what were looking into at
GTT to help the market deliver LNG.

David Colson
Commercial Vice President
GTT SA
Worldwide focus is moving towards clean energies. In the
immediate term, gas is the only energy source that can address
global demand. Coal is cheap, but not as clean, and it leads to
much higher C02 emissions, and renewables still have a long way
to go in order to be able to fill the gap. Growth in the gas market
will be key for the next decade. Developing new markets is going
to be essential, especially for LNG. The use of FSRUs is becoming
a key discussion topic in the industry, and I believe it will play a
fundamental role in developing more markets for our industry.

Organizations like ABS have an important role to play as the

market changes, bringing to bear pioneering efforts in the safe
transport and handling of gas and extensive experience with
the full scope of gas-related assets, including many of the most
advanced carriers in service. The formation of the Global Gas
Solutions team is a testament to ABS view of the importance of
providing industry guidance as the use of LNG as fuel for marine
and other applications expands.

Patrick Janssens
Vice President, Global Gas Solutions
ABS
When talking about the future of the industry, there are two areas
to watch in particular. One is import/export terminals. Research at
Witherbys indicates that in November 2016 there are 124 functioning
LNG terminals globally. There are 24 terminals in construction and
weve identified a further 97 that are at a planning stage. A lot of
operators are now assessing when it will be the right time to move
forward. This means that theyre very much refining their business
case and their plans for financing. I think we are going to see a glut
of terminals coming on stream in the mid 2020s.

The other area which is going to be exciting in this next decade is

the LNG bunkering sector. In particular, if you look at Singapore,
Fujairah, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hong Kong and Busan, those six
ports are responsible for 60% of the global bunkers that are
purchased annually. This year, there has been a number of big
announcements such as in Asia, where Singapore issued their first
two LNG bunkering licenses followed by a recent announcement
regarding a truck loading facility in support of LNG bunkering. In
Europe, Rotterdam completed their first LNG bunkering transfer to
the product tanker Ternsund.

Iain MacNeil
Chief Executive Officer
Witherby Publishing Group
We are currently facing a major downturn in the LNG industry due
to low energy prices and LNG supply exceeding demand. In the
near term, LNG facilities will focus on improving their operations
and consider debottlenecking their facilities to increase production
as demand starts to increase. As demand catches up with supply,
there may be additional projects developed in Canada, the USA
and East Africa.

Karl Masani
Director LNG Technology & Licensing
ConocoPhillips
What we can do at this point in time is to look at projects which
are ready to go ahead but which are perhaps not viable in the
current economic climate. We need to get to a place where various
stakeholders within the industry come to an understanding as
to how we can build a sustainable future in terms of providing
continuing low cost LNG to the world market. By doing that, we
can enhance the markets spread and ensure that we control the
capital and operational costs of these projects.

I believe there is going to be a tendency for the market to

comeback around again, with all of the new countries that are
going to have the opportunity to import LNG where they couldnt
possibly have considered it previously because of the high cost
of infrastructure development. Weve brought down the cost of
infrastructure development for import terminals through FSRUs,
FSUs. This is the way that the industry responds and this is the
way that we make our contribution to improving the availability of
energy to developing countries and to other worthwhile markets
where we can see the future deliver a sustainable industry.

Paul Sullivan
Senior Vice President Global LNG and FLNG
WorleyParsons Group
Nearshore FLNG can be an interim solution for part monetizing
large nearshore gas reserves early, while the onshore large
baseload plants are developed. However, there is a greater
probability of utilizing midscale FLNG solutions for developing
small to medium nearshore gas reserves and export onshore
pipeline. Only IOCs and NOCs who control most of the LNG value
chain were able to finance, through their balance sheets, large
FLNGs for monetizing their stranded gas reserves offshore.

However, due to reduced revenue streams from low oil prices, these
NOCs and IOCs may be realigning their FLNG program funding
and focus on progressive development utilizing cost-effective
midscale FLNG solutions instead of multi-billion dollars mega
FLNGs. At the same time there are several developers who want to
be midstream partners. These developers generally will depend on
external financing and it may be relatively easier for them to secure
off takers with the simple, small to midscale bankable (bite-size)
FLNG solutions without having the burden of securing multiple off
takers. So we might see a number of midscale cost effective FLNG
solutions deployed in the near future to help manage complexity,
risk and financing needs.

Javid Talib
Vice President Director, Floating Technology Applications
Black & Veatch
LNG is one of the most promising energy sources in terms of
stability and environmental friendliness. It will still be a very long
time before renewable energies change places with fossil fuels,
and LNG is more conducive to sustainable growth. However, the
recent environment surrounding the LNG industry has been less
than favourable. The shale revolution has boosted the production of
oil and natural gas in North America, and coupled with record high
OPEC production levels, it has resulted in an elongated period of
depressed oil, gas and LNG prices. The low LNG prices have put a
brake on the development of new projects.

Against this backdrop, it is important to stabilize and strengthen

the LNG market to further develop the LNG industry. Expanding
infrastructures such as widespread pipelines and gas storage
facilities, including underground storage, is one effective measure.

In order to survive, E&P companies must establish a coherent

natural gas supply system covering the entire spectrum comprising
upstream E&P and transportation, through to downstream end
markets, while fortifying their value chains.

Kazuhiko Tezuka
General Manager, Research Center
Technical Division
JAPEX
The global gas industry is changing. There will be profound
changes over the next few years as the over-supply issue changes
the corporate landscape amongst suppliers. Were already seeing
consolidation and were going to see more repositioning as
companies invest more in portfolios. With buyers as well, things are
changing dramatically. Liberalization in gas markets is a key theme
and new buyers are emerging. The corporate landscape everywhere,
amongst buyers and suppliers, is becoming very, very different.

Noel Tomnay
Head Global Gas, Gas and Power Research
Wood Mackenzie
As natural gas has the lowest carbon content of all fossil fuels,
there are high expectations for it to play a greater role in the global
energy mix and become a bridge to a low-carbon future.
There is no doubt that LNG is the prominent leader for the
development of the natural gas market.

LNG is the most effective method for transporting natural gas from
continent to continent over long distances and meeting the surging
demand in the world. Supported by the development of new LNG
technologies and the entry of new LNG players such as traders and
emerging economies, the LNG industry is on its way to creating a
more flexible and competitive market.

Shigeru Muraki
Executive Advisor
Tokyo Gas
I trust that the worlds demand for LNG will remain strong toward
2025, due to increasing energy demand in Asia, coupled with
technology developments related to LNG supply, and the recent
change in the world LNG market, which is becoming more and
more open and flexible.

Japan is a pioneer of importing and utilizing LNG and has acquired

abundant know how and cutting edge technologies. In alliance with
the Japanese utility companies, we intend to further develop and
enhance such technologies. Chiyoda is willing to provide seamless
services through the overall gas value chain; from subsea gas
development, liquefaction, re-gasification and power supply.

Katsuo Nagasaka
Executive Vice President
Chiyoda Corporation
Global natural gas demand will steadily increase due to the
global climate change and more stringent emission controls.
There is no doubt that the Paris Agreement on Climate Change will
drive the increase in global natural gas demand. Global emission
regulations become more and more stringent in the sector of land
and sea transportation.

We are already paying great attention to the requirements

after Euro-6 for land transportation and expansion of global
emission requirements for sea transportation as well. In particular,
many countries who have never imported LNG may be emerging
consumers for power generation and/or industrial uses. In light of
these industrial trends, many small-scale natural gas consumers
will emerge for distributed power generation and bunkering in the
next decade.

Young-Myung Yang
Executive Vice President & Chief Technology Officer
Technology Division
Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS)
 Exhibition & Conference

4-7 APRIL 2017

Makuhari Messe Chiba,
Tokyo, Japan

View the Gastech

Exhibition & Conference

4-7 APRIL 2017

Makuhari Messe Chiba,
Tokyo, Japan

brochure today > Advancing the Role for Gas

& LNG in the Global Energy Mix
Conference & Exhibition Programme

Official Knowledge Partner: Organised by:

For the latest programme and speaker line-up, visit www.gastechevent.com

If you have any feedback or would like to get in

touch, please email CristinaLando@dmgevents.com