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MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES

Commodities • 02.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

Commodity Price Short term market drivers Technical levels Target 1M

Crude Oil (WTI), 1M. 79,18 Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe, demand from China and the US economy - Resistance: 80,00 next 82,00
$/brl. Julys oil market reports showed unchanged to slightly higher expectations of demand in 2010. + Support: 70,00 next 66,00 75
Active hurricane season: Storms at US/Mexican coast can support. Tropical storm Alex does not seem to cause problems
+/- Momentum: 
Gold NYMEX spot 1184 Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe + Resistance: 1.200 next 1.275
$/oz Focus has moved a bit away from Europe - bank stress test did not show any major concerns - Support: 1.150 next 1.125 1250
FED wants to keep rates low for an "extended" period. Focus on inflation fear still supports + Momentum: 
Copper LME, 3M 7410 Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe. Also, concerns for Chineese real estate market persists - Resistance: 7.600 next 7.800
$/t LME inventories have fallen about 25% since March. ICSG reports a market in deficit in March og April + Support: 7.200 next 7.000 7.200
China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) +/- Momentum: 
Aluminium LME, 2187 Financing deals means that, even if LME-inventories are at record highs, a smaller part of the physical aluminium is available + Resistance: 2.200 next 2.225
3M $/t China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) +/- Support: 2.070 next 1.850 2.000
Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe and demand from China - Momentum: 
Nickel LME, 3M 21690 Still weak demand indicators in the OECD - but improving in recent months - Resistance: 22.000 next 23.000
$/t China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) + Support: 17.000 next 15.750 19.000
INSG expects balanced market i 2010 against a surplus i 2011. + Momentum: 
Wheat CBOT 708,0 USDA (June): Lower estimates for production in 2010/11, but US end stocks more or less unchanged +/- Resistance: 750 next 780
Dec10 USc/bu Crop conditions in the US at a very high level suggest high yields - Support: 700 next 600 700
Worries on European and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) + Momentum: 
Wheat MATIF 195,25 USDA (June): Lower estimates for production in 2010/11, but US end stocks more or less unchanged +/- Resistance: 200 next 215
Nov10 €/t Worries on European and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) + Support: 180 next 165 185
Strong competition from Russia for export markets; this affects primarily European wheat - Momentum: 
Continued on next page…

Publisher: Editors: Trading desk, commodities:


Hans Chr. Haugaard Read more:
Jyske Markets Casper Andersen Charlotte Rahlf Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com
Commodities Analyst Analyst Søren Kræn Pedersen
Vestergade 8-16 +45 89 89 71 74 +45 89 89 71 75 Peter Peschardt Disclaimer:
DK-8600 Silkeborg candersen@jyskebank.dk crahlf@jyskebank.dk +45 87 57 82 65 Please see the last page
raavarer@jyskebank.dk
MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES
Commodities • 02.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

Commodity Price Short term market drivers Technical levels Target 1M

Corn CBOT 411,3 Continued indications of Chineese imports support + Resistance: 415 next 450
Dec10 USc/bu Most recent data from USDA suggests high ethanol use + Support: 375 next 350 400
Crop conditions in the US at a high level suggest high yields - Momentum: 
Soybeans CBOT 1018,3 Imports to China hit rekord level in June (up 42 % m/m og 32 % y/y) + Resistance: 1.025 next 1.060
Nov10 USc/bu China will let its currency strengthen and thereby increase the buying power (commodity demand) - Support: 950 next 900 960
South american harvest will most likely be quite large and reduce US exports when harvested - Momentum: 
Rapeseed MATIF 367,3 Large end inventories and declining demand for bio diesel. - Resistance: 375 next 400
Nov10 €/t Prospects for a lower than expected production - for example in China + Support: 350 next 320 380
Oil World: The acreage is expected to fall by 6% ->a production decline to 3.3 mio. t to 55 mio. t for the new harvest. + Momentum: 

Publisher: Editors: Trading desk, commodities:


Hans Chr. Haugaard Read more:
Jyske Markets Casper Andersen Charlotte Rahlf Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com
Commodities Analyst Analyst Søren Kræn Pedersen
Vestergade 8-16 +45 89 89 71 74 +45 89 89 71 75 Mads Hemmingsen Disclaimer:
DK-8600 Silkeborg candersen@jyskebank.dk crahlf@jyskebank.dk Peter Peschardt Please see the last page
+45 87 57 82 65
raavarer@jyskebank.dk
MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES
Commodities • 02.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

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