townterrier

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Posted 27 August 2007 2:33pm

I have recenty read a Kevin Pullein piece on ratings in which he states: "The Elo rating
system lends itself very well to the purpose of sports betting in that it can be used not only to
determine the relative strength but also to calculate probabilities and thus odds" I have
created my Elo ratings system however I am now left with a table that can tell me Everton are
so many points better than Bolton but how can I calculate odds from this as Pullein suggests I
should be able to do with Elo ratings? Thanks for your help.

GaF

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Posted 27 August 2007 3:10pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Do you have (or can you get) historical ELO's at a point
in time for old games? I'll assume you can...... I'd be tempted to graph the difference in the
ELO between the 2 teams (being positive if the Home team is favourite, and negative if the
away team has a better rating) with the percentage of the time there is a home win/Away
Win/draw (3 seperate graphs) for each "difference" and see if there is a pretty clear "line of
best fit" (from which I could have the percentage chance and thus calculate the odds).
townterrier

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Posted 27 August 2007 3:13pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Ah so there isn't a set way to do it? I assumed there was
from Pulleins wording.

GaF

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Posted 27 August 2007 3:20pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds My assumption is that this is just an "arbitrary" rating
(Can ELO be calculated a range of ways, or is it always one set formula? :unsure) based on
previous results - a certain amount of empirical data would therefore be needed to project
probabilities... I would suspect that an ELO rating in different sports, even where the value
and formula is the same, would equate to different probabilities of the higher rating
prevailing....

GaF

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Posted 27 August 2007 3:21pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds I'm sure Datapunter and/or slapdash (and others) will be
along shortly with far more informed answers :ok

townterrier

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Posted 27 August 2007 3:24pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Ok mate thanks for the replies.

slapdash

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Posted 27 August 2007 4:23pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds The way Elo rating systems work is to adjust the ratings
after each game according to the difference between the "actual score" and "expected score",
so if you know how to update the ratings then you should be able to deduce how to calculate
the "expected score". In a game without draws, the expected score (assuming the rating
system works on the basis of 1 for a win and 0 for a loss) is exectly the probability of
winning. If draws are possible, it's going to be more complicated.

merlin

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Posted 27 August 2007 6:22pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds .... I believe Elo ratings are worked out as a percentage
of the pot. The home side contribute 7% of their total points to the pot, and the away team
contribute 5% of theirs.If either team wins, they get the whole pot added to their points,while
the loser loses whatever they contributed. If draw the pot is halved.I think this is correct from
memory.;)

townterrier

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Posted 27 August 2007 6:34pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds I fully understand how Elo ratings work, how to create
them etc. it is more how to convert the results into percentages and therefore odds that i am
interested in.

London_Calling

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Posted 27 August 2007 9:43pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Fiddle with this, and please report back with an opinion:
A -= The lowest nummber in your range (league) B = the highest number in your range C =
B-A The maths: your team rating - A / C That should give you relative percent values for
your teams.

slapdash

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Posted 28 August 2007 11:05pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds

Quote
I fully understand how Elo ratings work' date=' how to create them etc. it is more how to
convert the results into percentages and therefore odds that i am interested in.[/quote'] The
Elo rating systems I know more or less require you to calculate the "expected score" in order
to update the ratings after a game: the change in ratings is a function of the differrence
between "expected score" and "actual score". I suspect this is what Pullein is referring to.
Maybe if you gave some more details about the particular system you use ...?

London_Calling

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Posted 29 August 2007 9:59am

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds

Quote
The Elo rating systems I know more or less require you to calculate the "expected score" in
order to update the ratings after a game: the change in ratings is a function of the differrence
between "expected score" and "actual score". I suspect this is what Pullein is referring to.
Maybe if you gave some more details about the particular system you use ...?
You're normally quite precise with language so can I ask if you meant "expected score" or
'expected outcome' (H/D/A)? Fwiw, if you have Home and Away ELO ratings, the week-on-
week changes would seem to be a pretty sensible indicator of Form (a not insignificant issue
by itself) - assuming you manipulate that derived data effectively. Would folks agree with
that?

townterrier

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Posted 29 August 2007 10:10am

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds London Calling, i'll post my findings of you're above
suggestion asap, just hadn't had time yet. My ratings offer the expected outcome rather than
the expected score. They take into account the date, venue, score and quality of opposition.

slapdash

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Posted 29 August 2007 10:13am

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds

Quote
You're normally quite precise with language so can I ask if you meant "expected score" or
'expected outcome' (H/D/A)?
I meant "expected score", but didn't mean "score" as in "3-2 to Man. Utd"., I meant a number
that summarizes the outcome. When Elo ratings are used in games like chess, the "actual
score" is 1 for a win and 1/2 for a draw. Your "expected score" based on the current ratings of
you and your opponent will be some number between 0 and 1, equal to the probability
(according to the ratings) of a win for you plus half the probability of a draw.

asc

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Posted 29 August 2007 7:08pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds First of all, you should calculate the Elo ratings for as
much as premier league matches as you can. With these historical results you can use a
technique called Regression Analysis to calculate the "fair" odds. I did this "excercise" for all
premier league matches for the periode 1993-2006 and the equation for P(home win) turned
out to be: y=3.1632E-04x+4.7589E-01 (with x = the difference in elo rating between home
and away team). Example: Manchest City - Aston Villa (28-04-2007) City: 817 points Villa:
873 points Diff: -56 points P(home win)=3.1632E-04*(-56)+4.7589E-01=0.4582 Odd(home
win)=2.18 This is very close to the odds that were offered by the bookies, and I am quite sure
that bookmakers also use Elo Ratings to calculate their odds. More info on regression
analysis can be found in Joe Buchdahl's excellent book "Fixed Odds Sports Betting" Hope
this info is useful to you....

Chris3b

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Posted 30 August 2007 11:48am

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Hi Everybody, firstly, excuse me for my poor english.
I'm French and new on this nice english betting forum. I think Elo rating and regression is a
nice way to find value. The message of asc is very interesting and call reflexion. To Asc, and
others expert in mathematics Can you give me some help about this formula ? y=3.1632E-
04x+4.7589E-01 1) It is a formula regression ? 2) How did you find 3.1632E and 4.7589E 3)
What is E ? (sorry for my poor mathematics) 4) How did you find 04 ? 5) What is the
optimum elo rating for historical results ? 1 season of Home and away ? 2 seasons , 10 season
? 6) Asc, Have you backtested this formula for english premier league ? have you good
results ? Thnak you very much for your help :ok Christophe

asc

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Posted 30 August 2007 8:09pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds

Quote
To Asc, and others expert in mathematics Can you give me some help about this formula ?
y=3.1632E-04x+4.7589E-01 1) It is a formula regression ? 2) How did you find 3.1632E and
4.7589E 3) What is E ? (sorry for my poor mathematics) 4) How did you find 04 ? 5) What is
the optimum elo rating for historical results ? 1 season of Home and away ? 2 seasons , 10
season ? 6) Asc, Have you backtested this formula for english premier league ? have you
good results ? Christophe
(1) It's a formula that is the result of regression analysis. The formula can be determined by
Excel, by putting your data in a graph (with x=elo_difference and y=number of home wins
percentage). After adding a trendline, Excel will calculate the formula for the trend line. (2)
Excel found it for me, see (1) . Excel can also determine the regression coefficient which is a
measure for how "reliable" the formula is. For this formula (UK home wins) the regression
coefficient was 0.88 which is very good. More on regression analysis can be found here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis (3)(4) E-04 is a scientific notation. For
example: 5.5*E-4 Is the same as 5.5/10000=0.00055. So in 'normal notation' the formula is:
y=0.00031632x+0.47589 (5) You need as much results as possible, if you have too few
results, there is too much 'noise' and the regression coefficient (=reliability) will decrease. I
calculated this formula for the period 1993-2006 (4045 matches). The first 10 competition of
rounds for each season are not taken into account because every team starts at 1000 points so
it takes some matches to get every team in the right position. (6) I used this system to find
value bets for home wins (8% yield), but I was not able to backtest it for several seasons ,
because i dont have all these odds in my database. If you want to dive into this, you really
have to buy Joe Buchdahl's book, because this technique is explained very well in it. Good
luck:ok

Chris3b

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Posted 30 August 2007 8:56pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Thank you very much asc for your answers. it's more
clear for me. I'd like buy joe Buchdal's book, but i think i'll be out with english technicals
terms. Why these sort of book is not traducted in french ? perhaps not enough french
punters...:(

muppet77

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Posted 31 August 2007 3:08pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds have you considered running the seasons into one
another, thus eliminating the need to start again at 1000 points? perhaps give newly promoted
teams the average points of those relegated?

trollerboy

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Posted 31 August 2007 4:34pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds @asc good work. ive also read buchdahls book and
know about those models. what did you use: just the results or also shots on target/corners
data? did you do that for leagues throughout europe? did you do that also for away wins? for
you home wins: can you tell me the yield if you only had taken value bets with odds >1.9 ?

Dumyat

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Posted 1 September 2007 8:48am

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Asc: how did the system work in practice ie 2006-2007
season - did u actually achieve 8% yield.

longfoot

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Posted 6 September 2007 10:13am

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Sounds very interesting. I made calculations in Spain

Primera 5054 matches and got following result:

asc

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Posted 6 September 2007 8:25pm

asc

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Posted 6 September 2007 8:45pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds

Quote
Sounds very interesting. I made calculations in Spain Primera 5054 matches and got
following result:
Quite close to the equation that I calculated, based on 'only' 2872 matches (1993-2005, first
10 matches where skipped). y = 0.00025461x + 0.48437 with R^2=0.83062. liisy, did you
also skip the first 10 matches and how many seasons did you use to calculate the data?

cavello

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Posted 6 September 2007 9:11pm

Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds Because the ratings grow during the season I have
rejected them as a way of assessing "true odds" An advantage of 500 points in November is
not equivalent to an advantage of 500 points in April.

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