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- ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED SETTLEMENTS AND LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL IN SANDY SOIL
- G_Seismic & Geologic Hazards Existing Conditions Report
- Liquefaction
- g Section 08
- Delhi microzonation report
- Vibration Theory -5th
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- Alvarado Final Paper
- MODEL TESTS ON LATERAL EARTH PRESSURE ON LARGE GROUP PILE EXERTED BY HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT OF LIQUEFIED SANDY GROUND
- Seismic Design on Liquefiable Soil
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- CMIG 2013 - Case studies of stone columns improvement in seismic areas (1).pdf
- Liquefaction - Short Course Damage to Buidling Foundations - Leslie Youd
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- Seismic Slope Stability
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APPENDIX J

Dynamic Response Analysis

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J

Dynamic Response Analysis

TABLE OF CONTENTS

J1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................. 1

J2 EARTHQUAKE TIME HISTORIES ..................................................................................................... 1

J3 MODEL AND INPUT DATA FOR SITE RESPONSE ANALYSIS ........................................................... 4

J3.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 4

J3.2 Shear Wave Velocity ......................................................................................................... 6

J3.3 Modulus Reduction and Damping .................................................................................... 9

J4 RESULTS OF SITE RESPONSE ANALYSES ...................................................................................... 10

J4.1 Weathered Rock Profile at Samarco Office Site ............................................................. 10

J4.2 Tailings Dam Profiles at Fundo Dam Site ...................................................................... 12

J5 CYCLIC LIQUEFACTION TRIGGERING ........................................................................................... 14

J6 SEISMIC DISPLACEMENTS ........................................................................................................... 16

List of Tables

Table J2-1 Summary of time histories provided for analysis by Atkinson (2016) ............................. 2

Table J2-2 PGA values in bedrock of estimated November 5, 2015 time histories at Samarco ....... 3

Table J4-1 Computed amplification factors from SHAKE analyses .................................................. 12

List of Figures

Figure J2-1 Estimated time histories of November 5, 2015 earthquakes from Atkinson (2016).

(BC1 median-level motions on left; BC2 median-level motions on right) ........................ 3

Figure J2-2 Response spectra of BC1 (mainshock) and BC2 ground motions provided by Atkinson

(2016) ................................................................................................................................ 4

Figure J3-1 Aerial image showing locations of Samarco office and Fundo Dam .............................. 5

Figure J3-2 Shear wave velocity data in weathered phyllite at Samarco office site........................... 6

Figure J3-3 Selected soil columns at Fundo Dam for 1D site response analysis ............................... 7

Figure J3-4 Shear wave velocity data in tailings at Fundo and Germano ......................................... 8

Figure J3-5 Shear wave velocity data in compacted sand .................................................................. 9

Figure J3-6 Three soil columns used in SHAKE2000 analyses ............................................................. 9

Figure J3-7 Modulus reduction and damping curves for tailings sands, slimes and soft rock ......... 10

Figure J4-1 Computed peak accelerations from SHAKE2000 analyses of weathered rock column . 11

Figure J4-2 Comparison of output and input response spectra from SHAKE2000 analyses ............ 11

Figure J4-3 Results of SHAKE analyses for crest and toe soil columns at Fundo Dam.................... 13

Figure J4-4 Comparison of cyclic stress ratios induced by CD1 and CD2 ground motions ............... 14

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J - Dynamic Response Analysis

TABLE OF CONTENTS

(continued)

Figure J5-1 Pore pressure development in laboratory test following lateral extrusion mechanism

and then cyclic loading (test ID TX-31) very loose sample (=+0.05) ......................... 15

Figure J5-2 Laboratory test following lateral extrusion mechanism and then cyclic loading (test

ID TX-31) very loose sample (=+0.05) ....................................................................... 16

Figure J6-1 Calculation of yield acceleration for Newmark-type displacement analysis ................. 17

Figure J6-2 Estimated displacements ................................................................................................ 18

List of Attachments

Attachment J1 Ground Motion Time Histories used in Newmark Displacement Analysis

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

J1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents the results of dynamic response analyses of the November 5, 2015

earthquakes at Samarco, using the one-dimensional ground response analysis software SHAKE2000.

The November 5, 2015 earthquake time histories were estimated by seismologist Dr. Gail Atkinson

(Atkinson 2016) and used as input ground motions in our site response analyses. The analyses were

performed at two locations, namely:

1. at the Samarco office site to evaluate potential amplification of ground motions through the

weathered rock profile; and

2. at the Fundo Dam site to estimate the likely earthquake-induced shear stresses in the tailings

dam profile.

Section J2 summarizes the input earthquake time histories. Section J3 describes the soil models and

input data used in our site response analyses. Section J4 presents the results of the SHAKE2000

analyses. Finally, Sections J5 and J6 present the results of assessments to identify whether pore

pressures or displacements significant to the triggering of liquefaction could result from the

computed ground motions.

Atkinson (2016) analyzed the ground motions from the November 5, 2015 earthquake sequence near

Fundo Dam. The analysis considered data from the following sources:

seismographic data obtained from the regional Brazilian network (www.rsbr.gov.br);

felt (intensity) reports of the November 5 earthquakes at the Samarco office site;

data collected on a local accelerometer that was installed on November 11, 2015 following

the dam failure, and

ground motion data collected to May 20, 2016 on a six-station local broadband array installed

by Nanometrics Inc. at the end of April, 2016.

Note that the nearest Brazilian regional seismographic stations that recorded the November 5, 2015

earthquakes near Fundo Dam were more than 150 km away from the dam, hence ground motion

prediction equations were used by Atkinson (2016) to estimate the likely ground motions at Samarco.

Atkinson (2016) used the above data to develop a time history of motions that represents those that

likely occurred at the Samarco site on November 5, 2015 prior to the dam failure at approximately

15:45 (local time). The time history sequence includes three earthquakes closely spaced in time:

M 2.2 at 14:12:15 (foreshock)

M 2.6 at 14:13:51 (mainshock)

M 1.8 at 14:16:03 (aftershock)

where M is moment magnitude, estimated from local magnitudes reported by RSBR, and all

times noted are local Brazilian time.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

As a result of the ground motions analysis, Atkinson (2016) provided time histories on rock that can

be used to evaluate the response of the structures at Samarco due to the November 5, 2015

earthquake. The time histories provided are summarized in Table J2-1.

Table J2-1 Summary of time histories provided for analysis by Atkinson (2016)

Directional Components

Sequence Name Interval Represented Classification

Mainshock

2 x Horizontal (H1 & H2)

Median Foreshock

1 x Vertical (V)

BC1 (18 individual event time Aftershock

histories) Mainshock

2 x Horizontal (H1 & H2)

84th Percentile Foreshock B/C vs30 = 760

1 x Vertical (V)

Aftershock m/s

2 x Horizontal (H1 & H2)

Median Composite

1 x Vertical (V)

BC2 (6 time histories)

2 x Horizontal (H1 & H2)

84th Percentile Composite

1 x Vertical (V)

The time histories were provided for three directional components, i.e. two horizontal and a vertical,

and for a reference NEHRP B/C site condition (soft rock) with near-surface average shear wave

velocity, vs30, of 760 m/s. Since the vs30 values of the weathered rock at Samarco are lower, at about

340 m/s to 400 m/s based on Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) measurements

(Appendix C), which corresponds to NEHRP site class C/D (stiff soil), Atkinson (2016) proposes an

amplification factor of 1.4 (multiplication factor) to convert the site class B/C ground motions to site

class C/D ground motions.

To account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, Atkinson (2016) used a factor of 3.2 times

the median (50th percentile) ground motions to obtain the 84th percentile confidence-level (mean

plus one standard deviation) ground motions.

Figure J2-1 shows the two sets of median-level time histories provided by Atkinson (2016). The BC1

time histories contained the estimated foreshock, mainshock and aftershock sequence of

November 5, 2015, whereas the alternative BC2 time histories were scaled up from a M3 earthquake

that occurred about 70 km west of Samarco on May 2, 2016, and was recorded on the Nanometrics

local array. Note the very long duration of the BC2 ground motion due to its original recording at

70 km distance from Samarco. As noted by Atkinson (2016), the BC2 time history sequence was

intended to represent a composite of the foreshock-mainshock-aftershock events of November 5.

Even so, the duration of the BC2 record is expected to be longer than the combined duration

expected of the November 5, 2015 earthquake sequence.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Figure J2-1 Estimated time histories of November 5, 2015 earthquakes from Atkinson (2016).

(BC1 median-level motions on left; BC2 median-level motions on right)

Table J2-2 summarizes the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of the two sets of records, i.e. BC1

and alternative BC2, for both median-level and 84th percentile horizontal ground motions, as well as

the corresponding ground motions for C/D site conditions using the amplification factor of 1.4

proposed by Atkinson (2016). Note: only the horizontal component time histories are used in the

dynamic response analyses.

Table J2-2 PGA values in bedrock of estimated November 5, 2015 time histories at Samarco

Mw used in Equivalent C/D Equivalent C/D

Horizontal B/C PGA (%g) B/C PGA (%g)

Scaling by PGA (%g) PGA (%g)

Components Median 84th %

Atkinson (2016) Median 84th %

BC1-H1 Foreshock 2.2 2.0 2.8 8.4 9.0

BC1-H2 Foreshock 2.2 1.9 2.7 6.1 8.5

BC1-H1 Mainshock 2.5 2.5 3.5 8.0 11.2

BC1-H2 Mainshock 2.5 2.4 3.4 7.7 10.8

BC1-H1 Aftershock 1.8 1.2 1.7 3.8 5.4

BC1-H2 Aftershock 1.8 1.7 2.4 5.4 7.6

BC2-East 2.5 2.4 3.4 7.9 11.1

BC2-North 2.5 2.2 3.1 7.1 9.9

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Figure J2-2 shows the response spectra of the BC1 (mainshock) and alternative BC2 median ground

motions, for both horizontal components. As shown, the BC2 records are generally larger in

amplitudes across most of the periods of interest (or frequencies) than the BC1 records.

Figure J2-2 Response spectra of BC1 (mainshock) and BC2 ground motions provided by Atkinson

(2016)

J3.1 General

We used the computer program SHAKE2000 to perform one-dimensional equivalent-linear site

response analyses at the following two sites in Samarco:

1. weathered rock profile at Samarco office site.

2. tailings dam profiles at Fundo Dam site.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Figure J3-1 Aerial image showing locations of Samarco office and Fundo Dam

The key inputs needed for one-dimensional dynamic response analysis of a site profile, or soil

column, in addition to the input earthquake time histories, are:

shear wave velocity profile of the ground; and

shear modulus and damping variations with shear strain.

These input data for SHAKE2000 analyses are described in the following subsections.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Figure J3-2 shows our estimated shear wave velocity (vs) profile for the residual soil/weathered

phyllite rock at the Samarco office. The vs profile was estimated based on vs measurements in the top

36 m depth from a geophysical survey (MASW survey conducted by AFC Geofisica Ltda., see June,

2016 report in Appendix C Attachment C3) and extrapolated to 180 m depth by gradually increasing

vs to a value of 760 m/s, based on a typical weathered rock profile in California for which extensive vs

measurements were available. The vs value of 760 m/s at the base of the model corresponds to site

class B/C soft rock conditions, for which the November 5, 2015 earthquake ground motions were

developed by Atkinson (2016). The vs value of the top 30 m (vs30) of the weathered rock profile is

about 350 m/s, which corresponds to site class C/D stiff soil condition near the surface.

0 200 400 600 800

0

20

40

60 Vs-Section 3 - MASW

80 Survey

Depth (m)

Vs-Depth Relationship

100

Vs= 1500*0.17D0.21

120

140

160

180

200

Figure J3-2 Shear wave velocity data in weathered phyllite at Samarco office site

At the Fundo tailings dam, we modeled a typical soil profile at the crest of the dam and one at the

toe. Figure J3-3 illustrates these two soil columns relative to a cross-section of the dam. The crest soil

column is 88 m deep, consisting of a surface layer of compacted sand, overlying uncompacted tailings

sands and slimes. The toe soil column is 17 m deep and comprises compacted sand overlying only

sand tailings. Both soil columns overlie weathered phyllite (C/D soft rock condition) at the original

ground surface.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Figure J3-3 Selected soil columns at Fundo Dam for 1D site response analysis

For characterizing the tailings, we compiled the vs data measured by Fugro in 2015 at Fundo (see

Appendix C), and recent measurements carried out by ConeTec (see Appendix C, Attachment C2) at

the Germano Dam and Germano Pit Dam tailings sites. Figure J3-4 shows the compiled vs data from

various test locations at Fundo and Germano, and the average vs trend line used to characterize the

tailings deposit for our dynamic response analyses. Note the narrow band of data from the various

sets of vs measurements in the tailings at Samarco.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

0 200 400 600 800

0.00 Germano Pit Dam-

GCCP16-03-Sand

10.00

20.00

Fundao Dam - F04 - Sand

Depth (m)

30.00

02-Sand

40.00

Germano Dam - GSCPT16-

02B - Interbedded Sand

and Slimes

Germano Dam- GSCPT16-

50.00

05-Slimes

Vs= 410 + (D/100)0.36

60.00

Figure J3-4 Shear wave velocity data in tailings at Fundo and Germano

An average vs of 265 m/s was estimated for the compacted tailings sand at the crest, based on

measurements in test hole GSCPT16-06 by ConeTec (Appendix C, Attachment C2) at the Germano

Buttress, as shown on Figure J3-5. For the residual soil/soft rock that underlies the tailings deposit, an

average vs of 400 m/s was estimated based on measurements in GSCPT16-03 by ConeTec

(Appendix C, Attachment C2) at the Germano Pit Dam.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

0 200 400 600 800

0

10 GSCPT16-06 -

Compacted Sand

Depth (m)

15

20

25

30

Figure J3-6 shows the three soil columns and corresponding input shear wave velocity profiles used in

our dynamic response analyses.

The shear modulus reduction and damping curves used in the dynamic response analyses are shown

on Figure J3-7 for tailings sands, slimes and weathered rock. These curves were adopted based on the

following data sources:

For tailings sands, relationships proposed by Winckler et al. (2014) that vary with effective

stress and are based on laboratory test data on tailings.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

For tailings slimes, with measured plasticity index values between about 7 and 11,

relationships proposed by Vucetic and Dobry (1991).

For weathered rock, relationships proposed by Silva et al. (1997).

A total unit weight of 22 kN/m3 was used for all tailings and soft rock in the dynamic response

analyses.

Figure J3-7 Modulus reduction and damping curves for tailings sands, slimes and soft rock

We used the two horizontal components of the BC1 median-level and BC1 84th percentile mainshock

records as outcrop input ground motions in the site response analyses of the weathered rock

profile at the Samarco office site, in order to evaluate potential site amplification. Figure J4-1 shows

the depth profiles of the computed PGAs from the SHAKE2000 analyses of the November 5, 2015

mainshock ground motions. The results indicate some amplification in PGAs in the top 10 m to 20 m

of the ground profile. The maximum shear strains generated in the ground vary between

approximately 0.0002% and 0.0007%.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

-5

-25

-45

-65

Depth (m)

-85

-105

-125

-145

-165

-185

BC1-H1-MS-Median BC1-H2-MS-Median

Figure J4-1 Computed peak accelerations from SHAKE2000 analyses of weathered rock column

Figure J4-2 compares the response spectra of the input BC1 ground motions and the output or

computed motions at ground surface (labeled as -surface layer 1 on Figure J4-2) from the site

response analyses, for both median and 84th percentile mainshock events. Note the site period of the

180 m deep soft rock column computed from the SHAKE2000 analyses is approximately 1.14 sec.

Pseudo Acceleration Response Spectra - Weathered Bedrock -BC1- H1-Mainshock Pseudo Acceleration Response Spectra - Weathered Bedrock -BC1- H2-Mainshock

0.30 0.30

0.25 0.25

H1-MS-Median H2-MS-Median

0.20 0.20

SA(g)

SA(g)

H1-MS-84th

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0.00 0.00

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Period (s) Period (s)

Figure J4-2 Comparison of output and input response spectra from SHAKE2000 analyses

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Table J4-1 summarizes the range in amplification factors, defined as the ratio of the output motion

(i.e. computed surface response spectrum) to input motion (i.e. BC1 response spectrum), across all

periods for the two horizontal components (H1 and H2) of the mainshock. As shown in Table J4-1, the

SHAKE2000 results compare well with Atkinsons proposed amplification factor of 1.4 to convert site

class B/C ground motions to site class C/D ground motions.

Table J4-1 Computed amplification factors from SHAKE analyses

Ratio of Output to Input Motion Response Spectra

Minimum Median Maximum

BC1-H1 Median 0.83 1.25 1.59

BC1-H2 Median 0.90 1.25 1.67

th

BC1-H1 84 Percentile 0.97 1.34 1.64

th

BC1-H2 84 Percentile 0.96 1.28 1.50

Sensitivity analyses were performed with different modulus reduction and damping curves, and the

results were very similar to the above. The B/C ground motions amplified by a factor of 1.4 were

carried forward into the dynamic response analyses of the Fundo Dam. The amplified versions of the

BC1 and BC2 time history sequences are termed CD1 and CD2, respectively.

We used the two horizontal components of the CD1 median-level and CD1 84th percentile records as

outcrop input ground motions in the site response analyses of both the crest and toe soil columns

at Fundo Dam. Figure J4-3 presents the results of the SHAKE2000 analyses for the CD1 mainshock

analyses of the crest and toe soil columns. The figure shows the input vs profile, computed PGA,

maximum shear stresses, and cyclic stress ratios (CSR), defined as 0.65 times maximum shear stress

divided by vertical effective stress at the depth of interest. The site period of the 88 m deep crest soil

column is 1.15 sec, and the site period of the 17 m deep toe soil column is 0.42 sec.

The maximum shear strains developed in the mainshock analyses of the crest soil column vary from

0.0005% to 0.002% for the median motions and from 0.002% to 0.011% for the 84th percentile

motions. At the toe soil column, the maximum shear strains vary from 0.002% to 0.009% for median

motions and from 0.005% to 0.034% for 84th percentile motions.

As shown on Figure J4-3 for the crest soil column, the estimated CSR in the sand near the top of the

slimes deposit at 58 m depth is about 0.0014 for the median ground motion and 0.004 for the 84th

percentile ground motion. The estimated number of equivalent uniform cycles of the irregular shear

stress time histories extracted at the sand-slimes interface is about 6 to 8. This information was used

for the laboratory cyclic testing described in Appendix D, and discussed further in Section J5.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

CREST 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

0 200 400 600 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

0 0 0 0 0

Compacted Sand

-10 -10 -10 -10 -10

Sand

-40 -40 -40 -40 -40

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

-50 -50 -50 -50 -50 Range CSR 0.00139 - 0.0014 CD1- Median

Range CSR 0.0041 - 0.0042 CD1-84th

-60 -60 -60 -60 -60

Slimes

-80 -80 -80 -80 -80

Soft Rock Vs=400 m/s

-100 -100 -100 -100 -100

Compacted Sand

CD1-H1-MS-Median CD1-H1-MS-Median CD1-H1-MS-Median

Sand

CD1-H2-MS-Median CD1-H2-MS-Median CD1-H2-MS-Median

Slimes

Water Table CD1-H1-MS-84th Percentile CD1-H1-MS 84th Percentile CD1-H1-MS 84th Percentile

Original ground CD1-H2-MS 84th Percentile CD1-H2-MS-84thPercentile CD1-H2-MS-84thPercentile

TOE 0 200 400 600 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

0 0 0 0 0

-2 Compacted Sand -2 -2 -2 -2

-4 -4 -4 -4 -4

-6 -6 -6 -6 -6

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

-8 -8 -8 -8 -8

-10 Sand -10 -10 -10 -10

-12 -12 -12 -12 -12

-14 -14 -14 -14 -14

-16 -16 -16 -16 -16

-18 -18 -18 -18 -18

-20 -20 -20 -20 -20

Water Table CD1-H1-MS-Median CD1-H1-MS-Median CD1-H1-MS-Median

Sand CD1-H2-MS-Median CD1-H2-MS-Median CD1-H2-MS-Median

Compacted Sand CD1-H1- MS 84th Percentile CD1-H1-MS - 84th Percentile CD1-H1-MS - 84th Percentile

Original ground CD1-H2-MS 84th Percentile CD1-H2-MS 84th Percentile CD1-H2-MS 84th Percentile

Figure J4-3 Results of SHAKE analyses for crest and toe soil columns at Fundo Dam

For the crest and toe soil columns at Fundo Dam, we also ran SHAKE2000 analyses using the

alternative CD2 input ground motions. The cyclic stress ratios induced by the CD2 time histories are

compared to those from the CD1 time histories on Figure J4-4, for both median and 84th percentile

horizontal ground motions. In general, the higher-amplitude alternative CD2 ground motions

generated CSRs about 40% higher than those of the CD1 ground motions. Also, the earthquake-

induced cyclic stresses at the toe soil column are higher than at the crest soil column, due to

amplification of ground motions.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

CSR CSR

CREST

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

0 0 0

Compacted Sand

-10 -10 -10

-20 -20 -20

-30 -30 -30

Sand

-40 -40 -40

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

-50 -50 -50

-60 -60 -60

-70 -70 -70

Slimes

-80 -80 -80

-90 -90 -90

Soft Rock Vs=400m/s

-100 -100 -100

CD1-H1-MS-Median CD1-H1-MS 84th Percentile

CD1-H2-MS-Median CD1-H2-MS-84thPercentile

CD2-East-Median CD2-East-84th Percentile

CD2-North-Median CD2-North-84th Percentile

CSR CSR

TOE

CREST 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

0 0 0

Compacted Sand

-2 -2 -2

-4 -4 -4

-6 -6 -6

Depth (m)

Depth (m)

-8 Sand -8 -8

-10 -10 -10

-12 -12 -12

-14 -14 -14

-16 -16 -16

-18 -18 -18

Soft Rock Vs=400 m/s

-20 -20 -20

CD1-H1-MS-Median CD1-H1-MS - 84th Percentile

CD1-H2-MS-Median CD1-H2-MS 84th Percentile

CD2- East - Median CD2-East-84th Percentile

CD2-North-Median CD2-North-84th Percentile

Figure J4-4 Comparison of cyclic stress ratios induced by CD1 and CD2 ground motions

The calculated ground motions are not sufficient to trigger seismic liquefaction under ordinary

conditions; however, in light of the collapse behavior observed in the laboratory tests (see

Appendix D), and the likelihood of similar stress conditions having developed in the field (see

Appendix I), it was deemed necessary to assess whether these motions could induce collapse in an

already fragile sample. This was investigated by completing an additional stress controlled extrusion

collapse triaxial test. In this test (TX-31), a very loose sample (=+0.05) was brought to a condition of

incipient failure, identified by the axial strain response to an increment of unloading, before closing

the drainage valves and then subjecting the sample to cyclic loading. We intended to apply the CSR

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

calculated at the sand/slimes interface beneath the crest, since that is the region of the dam cross

section where the lateral extrusion mechanism would initiate static liquefaction. The cyclic loading

calculated for the sand slimes interface beneath the crest is a CSR of 0.001 to 0.004. It was not

practical to apply such a low load in the laboratory testing; therefore, a CSR of 0.01 was applied. The

sample did not fail under this load after applying 525 cycles. The load was increased to a CSR of 0.02

and cycled for a further 521 cycles. The sample still did not fail, so the CSR was increased to 0.03 and

the sample failed after a further 209 cycles. Very little pore pressure was developed during the cyclic

loading. This shows that the loading from the earthquake would be insufficient to induce liquefaction

in even a very fragile sample. The results from this test are shown on Figure J5-1 and Figure J5-2.

Refer to the cyclic direct simple shear tests shown in Appendix D for further examples of the

insignificant effect that this level of shaking would have on pore pressure development in other

samples of sand tested along an alternate stress path.

The higher cyclic loads calculated close to the surface occur (Figure J4-3) in compacted material that

would not be susceptible to liquefaction.

CSR = 0.03

CSR = 0.02

CSR = 0.01

Figure J5-1 Pore pressure development in laboratory test following lateral extrusion mechanism

and then cyclic loading (test ID TX-31) very loose sample (=+0.05)

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

followed by 521 cycles at

CSR=0.02 then 209 cycles

at CSR=0.03 then

collapse

Figure J5-2 Laboratory test following lateral extrusion mechanism and then cyclic loading (test

ID TX-31) very loose sample (=+0.05)

J6 SEISMIC DISPLACEMENTS

Having established that the seismic loading on November 5, 2015 would be insufficient to trigger

liquefaction through development of cyclic pore pressure, an analysis was completed to identify

whether the seismic loading could have contributed to the lateral extrusion triggering mechanism by

generating lateral displacements. We assessed this by completing Newmark-type displacement

calculations using acceleration time histories extracted from the sand/slimes interface in the

SHAKE2000 models. The displacement calculations were made using the software SLAMMER.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

The displacement calculations involve the identification of a seismic yield acceleration (ay) from limit

equilibrium analyses. The calculation within SLAMMER then identifies portions of the acceleration

time histories that exceed the yield acceleration. The displacements are then calculated by double

integration of the accelerations > ay, and then summation of the displacements resulting from the

integration.

The yield acceleration was calculated in this analysis for the cross section used in the deformation

and stability analyses (Section 01 - see Appendices H and I) assuming that the dam was on the verge

of collapse due to lateral extrusion. Consistent with this assumption, an su/'v strength ratio of 0.14

was used in the calculations because this is the mobilized strength necessary to initiate liquefaction

due to lateral extrusion (see Appendix I). The ay value calculated in this analysis was 0.01 g.

Strengths: Slimes-Rich Layers = su/'v (0.13); Sand = ' = 33; Compacted Sand = ' = 35 & c' = 5 kPa

Horizontal seismic coefficient = 0.01 g

The displacement analyses were run using the 84th percentile time histories in order to understand

the upper-bound of potential displacements. Analyses were run for both the crest and toe columns,

and using both the CD1 and CD2 time history sequences. For the CD1 time history sequence, the

displacements were calculated as the sum of those from the foreshock, mainshock and aftershock.

The results shown on Figure J6-2 indicate small displacements, ranging from 2 mm to 8 mm, with an

average of 5 mm.

Time histories extracted from the SHAKE2000 models, used in this analysis, are shown in

Attachment J1.

Fundo Tailings Dam Review Panel Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundo Dam

Appendix J Dynamic Response Analysis

Calculated Displacements

9

8

Ay = 0.01

7

Sliding Displacement (mm)

0

CD1-H1-ALL-84th CD1-H2-ALL-84th CD1-H1-ALL-84th CD1-H2-ALL-84th CD2-H1-84th CD2-H2-84th

Percentile - Crest Percentile - Crest Percentile - Toe Percentile - Toe Percentile - Crest Percentile - Crest

Column Column Column Column Column Column

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