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  • 5 Uncertainty - 2 Classifications of Uncertainty

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    Jayanthi Kandhaadai
    34 tayangan6 halaman
    uncertainty

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    34 tayangan6 halaman

    5 Uncertainty - 2 Classifications of Uncertainty

    Diunggah oleh

    Jayanthi Kandhaadai
    uncertainty

    Hak Cipta:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 6

    TheEconomicsofClimateChange C175

    ClassificationsofUncertainty

    Spring09 UCBerkeley Traeger 5 Risk and Uncertainty 18


    TheEconomicsofClimateChange C175

    ClassificationofTypesofUncertainty(EconomicLanguage)
    Risk:Uniqueprobabilitiesdescribingtheuncertainty
    Objective

    Subjective

    Ambiguity/Knightian uncertainty/deepuncertainty:Possibleoutcomes
    areknown butcorrespondingprobabilitiescannotbeuniquelyassessed
    areknown,butcorrespondingprobabilitiescannotbeuniquelyassessed
    Unforeseencontingencies:Dontevenforeseepossibleconsequences

    Exogenousrisk:
    Thepossibleoutcomesandtheirprobabilitiesaregivenbynature
    Endogenousrisk:
    E d i k
    Wehavesomecontrolovertheprobabilitieswewillface

    Spring09 UCBerkeley Traeger 5 Risk and Uncertainty 19


    TheEconomicsofClimateChange C175

    Riskanduncertainty
    TheUnknown.
    Asweknow,
    Thereareknownknowns.
    Therearethingsweknowweknow.
    Wealsoknow
    Thereareknownunknowns.
    Thatistosay
    Weknowtherearesomethings
    Wedonotknow.
    Buttherearealsounknownunknowns,
    Theoneswedon'tknow
    Wedon'tknow
    Wedon tknow.

    D.H.RumsfeldFeb.12,2002,DepartmentofDefense newsbriefing,slightlyadapted,seealso
    http://www youtube com/watch?v= RpSv3HjpEw
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RpSv3HjpEw

    Spring09 UCBerkeley Traeger 5 Risk and Uncertainty 20


    TheEconomicsofClimateChange C175

    UncertaintyintheIPCC(TypesofUncertainty,IPCClanguage)
    Source:GuidanceNotesforLeadAuthorsoftheIPCCFourthAssessment
    ReportonAddressingUncertainties

    Spring09 UCBerkeley Traeger 5 Risk and Uncertainty 21


    TheEconomicsofClimateChange C175

    UncertaintyintheIPCC Confidence
    Table3,canbeusedtocharacterizeuncertaintythatisbasedonexpert
    judgment astothecorrectnessofamodel,ananalysisorastatement.

    Spring09 UCBerkeley Traeger 5 Risk and Uncertainty 22


    TheEconomicsofClimateChange C175

    UncertaintyintheIPCC Likelihood
    Ifenoughevidenceprevails,IPCCusesLikelihood
    Itreferstoaprobabilisticassessmentofsomewelldefinedoutcome
    havingoccurredoroccurringinthefuture.Thecategoriesdefinedin
    thistableshouldbeconsideredashavingfuzzyboundaries.

    Spring09 UCBerkeley Traeger 5 Risk and Uncertainty 23

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