Name: Nina Boggan Period: 4

Election Prediction Sheet

Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction

Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states
Candidate (Party) Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep) Gary Johnson (Lib)
Popular Vote Count 1,212,514 2,620,596 78,226
Pop. Vote % 31 67 2

Congressional Election Predictions

Copy and paste as many tables as you need
State, District Oklahoma, District 1

Candidate (Party) Jim Bridenstine David Matthew Hullum

(Republican) (Independent)
Popular Vote % 97 3
Popular Vote Count 768913 23781

State, District Oklahoma, District 2

Candidate (Party) Markwayne Mullin Joshua Harris-Till
(Republican) (Democrat)
Popular Vote % 86 14
Popular Vote Count 645800 105130

State, District Oklahoma, District 3

Candidate (Party) Frank Lucas Frankie Robbins
(Republican) (Democrats)
Popular Vote % 94 6
Popular Vote Count 732930 46783

State, District Oklahoma, District 4

Candidate (Party) Tom Cole Christina Owen
(Republican) (Democrat)
Popular Vote % 81 19
Popular Vote Count 630183 147821

State, District Oklahoma, District 5 *NO CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS THIS YEAR

Candidate (Party)
Popular Vote %
Popular Vote Count

Directions
Respond to the Election Prediction prompts in cohesive paragraphs.
Include an Introduction to the assignment, your predictions and your strategy for approaching the
predictions
Include a Conclusion that looks at the implications of this prediction for future elections
All claims should be supported by data or analysis from credible sources.
Make sure to provide proper in-text citations for the demographic data and quotations you use.
You may combine districts or use one district as exemplifying traits of another, but be sure to
discuss similarities and difference between them,.

Prompts
1. Explain how demographic factors (2) in your districts will influence voting in the presidential
election. Explain how these same factors will influence voting in the congressional elections.
2. Describe how two key issues will influence presidential voting in your districts. Explain how the
candidates stances on these key issues will affect the outcomes of the congressional races. This
may also be a section in which you discuss the role of the media in these issues.
3. Describe how voter turnout in your state has changed over time for two different demographic
groups. Explain how the turnout rates of these groups have impacted election results in the past.
How do you expect voter turnout rates of these groups will influence elections in your state this
year?
4. Explain how the presidential election will affect the congressional elections in your state.
Describe the most significant demographic difference between the 2 districts you chose. Explain
how this difference will influence voting patterns.

Election Predictions for Oklahoma

The upcoming 2016 election will be a test of how polarized the United States truly is. With two

candidates who are almost exact opposites; Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, citizens living in swing
states and the moderate or uninformed voter population will be defining factors of this election.

Oklahoma voters are an example of the more moderate Republicans who make up middle America,

however, its location below the Mason-Dixon line remains a huge influence on the ideologies of its

congresspeople. All five of Oklahomas congressional districts are almost identical demographically, but

there is one main difference that stands out between them, one that is common among southern states;

urbanization. All of these components will affect the outcome of both the presidential and congressional

elections, more so the presidential, it being a critical election.

Districts 1 and 5 both are set apart from the rest of Oklahoma with two demographics; education

and urbanization. They both have a higher education rate of 20.16% earning an associate's and 9.21%

earning a bachelor's degree in District 1, and 18.93% earning an associate's and 10.97% earning a

bachelor's in District 5 (Census Bureau). This is about 4% more people with associates degrees, and 7%

more with bachelors. There is also a higher percentage of college students in these districts, which is

often true in more urban areas of a state. District one is 89.63% urban, and District 5 is 87.53% urban,

whereas the state of Oklahoma is only 61.41% urban (Census Bureau). Urban areas with educated voters

tend to vote more democratic than their surrounding areas.

Since District 1 has an incumbent Republican candidate with an independent opponent, however,

those votes will most likely be cast to Jim Bridenstine, due to lack of a Democrat running for House.

Some who strongly oppose Bridenstine will vote for Hullum, if not abstaining from voting altogether, but

Oklahoma polls have shown that an independent candidate has never (in recent years) gotten over 10% of

the vote. This means District 1 will vote like the other districts in the congressional elections, but not

necessarily for the presidential election. Although there will most likely be no change in Republican votes

for Congress because of an incumbent candidate with little opposition, this is not the case when it comes

to Republican candidate Donald Trump. Many educated voters may not want to vote for Trump because

of his known tendency to change his policy, or state inaccurate information. High profile conservative
leaders have been known to oppose Trump because of his rash thinking, so this may lower the percentage

in comparison to previous Republican candidates in more educated districts like 1 and 5.

Two big issues in both the presidential and Oklahoma congressional elections are immigration

and taxes. Since Oklahoma is close to the Mexican border, restrictions on immigration could benefit

certain districts more than other. Districts 2,3, and 4 are more rural than 1 and 5, therefore agriculture and

produce are a big part of their economy. Mexican immigrants usually take up jobs in construction,

farming, and factories when they first arrive, and jobs in farming are currently limited (Oklahoma

Historical Society). Blue collar workers in rural, non developing areas may choose congresspeople who

want to tighten border patrol, in order to save their jobs. This is essentially the core of Trumps argument

on immigration. In urban areas, however, there is constant need for new construction and factory workers,

so blue collar workers in those areas may either shift towards a , or a Democrat, or Republican

congressperson who doesnt believe in tighter borders. Those voters who pick a Democrat over any

candidate who advocates for mass deportation and strict border regulation is almost guaranteed to not

vote for Trump, whether this means voting for Clinton, or sitting out this years presidential election.

District 1s Republican voters have a little less reason to shift to the left of the spectrum, unlike

District 5, because of the issue of tax increases on the rich. Oklahoma as a whole state has an average

yearly income of $62,871, about $10,00 more than the country's average; $51,939 (Census Bureau). This

would make taxation on the rich a smaller issue for the state as a whole, but taking a closer look at

District 1s $72,939 average income (Census Bureau) changes the relevance of the topic. Voters with a

higher income seem to be focused in District 1, which also happens to have a higher urbanization rate and

education level. Higher educated citizens tend to be the ones who register and vote, and those with a

higher income, especially in southern states, are likely to register as Republicans. If all of these wealthier

Republicans vote, there will most like be a Republican congressperson selected. Trump, however, does

not appeal to a lot of high paid and educated voters, so these people may chose not to vote or to cast their

vote to Clinton.
 Urbanization will be the main influence in the congressional elections, but voter turnout will be

the main influence in the presidential election. Although the entire state as well as all of the districts will

most likely vote Republican, the demographic groups that show up at the ballot will determine how

Republican Oklahoma will vote. There has been an increase of younger voters in the primaries, so this

may mean slightly more Democrat votes than normal, being that Donald Trump does not appeal to a lot of

younger voters (Tulsa World). These young voters have been proven to be much more involved in

presidential elections than congressional elections, so the Republican vote should remain unchanged in

the rural districts.

This same trend is shown by data from the Oklahoma State Election Board. In 2026, there was a

6% increase in registered Democrats. Again, this may not have a huge affect on the more rural districts in

the congressional elections, but it will most likely raise the Democrat votes in future District 5 elections

(none this year). The votes for Clinton could increase by 4-10% in comparison to previous Democrat

candidates because of the recent increase of registered Democrats and 18-21 year olds, as well as

factoring in the skepticism surrounding Trumps campaign among some of Oklahomas wealthier

residents.

In summary, Oklahoma is usually a red state and will probably remain a red state unless

something drastic invalidates poll numbers. There will however be a higher number of Democrats voting,

and Republicans sitting out the election because of an opposition to Trumps policy. This will create a

higher percentage for Clinton, but it wont be nearly enough for her to win the election. Congressional

elections in Oklahoma are mostly Republican incumbents, so there wont be much change, except in fute

District 1 and 5 elections due to their urbanization and the rising importance of immigration. Oklahoma is

a southern state, which is certainly reflected in its poll numbers, but this critical election will cause a

significant shift toward the Democrat candidate, which the state hasnt seen in years.
 Works Cited

"Census.gov." US Census Bureau. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2016.

Killman, Curtis. "Young Voters Showed up in Increasing Numbers for Oklahoma's Primary

Election." Tulsaworld.com. N.p., 24 July 2016. Web. 1 Nov. 2016.

"Mexicans | Encyclopedia of Oklahoma History and Culture." Mexicans | Encyclopedia of

Oklahoma History and Culture. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2016.

"Oklahoma State Election Board - Voter Registration Statistics." Oklahoma State Election Board

- Voter Registration Statistics. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2016.