Trump 3

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.
com>
Senttime: 07/23/201609:06:06AM
To: chrisbort@gmail.com
onTwitter:".,@realDonaldTrump!
Subject:
http://t.co/63ZPgonqZN"
http://mobile.twitter.com/KatasonovaMaria/status/756365956318912512
SentfrommyiPad
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/24/201609:23:36PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:TrumpistheGOPsFrankensteinmonster.Nowhesstrongenoughtodestroytheparty.-TheWashingtonPost
Goodpoint.Mytweetwaswordedtoogenerally,thoughsuchisthenatureofmuchofmysocialmedianonsense.Itweetedout
thisKaganpiecejustnow,too,forgoodmeasure.
OnJuly24,2016at4:42:34PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-the-gops-frankenstein-monster-now-hes-strong-enough-to-
destroy-the-party/2016/02/25/3e443f28-dbc1-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html
It'shardtofindamoreneoconthanKaganand,afterafashion,thisFebruarypieceisarebuttaltoyourtweetabout
failuretoseedomesticroots.
SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/23/201609:37:35AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Cc: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>chrisbort@gmail.com
Subject: Re:--
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul23,2016,at12:13PM,ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>wrote:
..
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJul23,2016,at11:53AM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.dp.ru/a/2016/07/21/Glava_Orlovskoj_oblasti_r/
Manyheadsarespinning......
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul23,2016,at11:27AM,eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>wrote:
Thanks,Bob.I'llbehonest,myheadisspinningfromallofthis--nofiction
writercouldhavemadeitup.
OnSat,Jul23,2016at7:52AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Gene:mymemorywashalfwrong.AMaksimenkowasinfactDovgiysSKpersecutor,
butitwasVladimir,nottheMikhailbelow.BastrykindismissedVladimirin2009andhe
hadworkedatFSBdirectorateM.Mikhailmayhavetoo.:(
OnJul19,2016,at2:45PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
wrote:
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.
AsidefromNikandrov(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalso
playedabigrole(moreprominentifmemoryserves)inthe
caseaginstDovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hada
fallingoutoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,butlaterFSKN
onlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)and
probablyKumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadin
the(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.Dovgiythen
turnedtoKhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehim
trumpupchargesagstthetwoprominentvictimsofthesiloviki
warBulbovandStorchak.
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBs
DirectorateMarrestedKalashovdaysago..andMaksimov
onceworkedthereaswellaccordingtothenewsrustoryon
thislatestdevelopment.
OnJul19,2016,at2:17PM,eugeneRumer
<rumereugene@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-
zaderzhaniya-trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-stala-
versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-banditam.html
From: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Senttime: 07/25/201601:39:47PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Cc: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject: RE:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Bob,
Ofcourse,hetellsusaboutbeingofferedapositioninMoscowandRoldugindoes.Samesourceasthesourceonthe
resignation.But,yes,hedidleave,unlikesomeothers.AndyouofcourseknowtheansweraboutOzeroyourself.
Itisperhapsabitreductionistandsimplistic,butmorerightthanwronginmyview.SayingheisaKGBmandoesntmean
thatstheONLYthingheis.
Brian
From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,July25,20164:33PM
To:BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject:Re:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Brian:
Justquickly.WecanwaitIbelieveweareinnohurry.Iwillchecktomorrow.
Mycommentsareforyourconsideration.
OntheKGB:
Iamaprovocateurbynature.SoIprovoked.Butjustonepoint:whotellsusin1stPersonthathewasofferedapositionin
Moscow?
Asfortheresignation:onewayortheotherheleft,unlikeSergeyforexample.
HowmanyofthedachacrowdwereKGB?
Ijustthinktheargumentisreductionist,butIhavebeenwrongbefore.
OnJul25,2016,at4:16PM,BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>wrote:

HiBob,

Thanksverymuchforthefeedback,itisveryhelpful.Iagreethatitneedssometighteningandclarifications.

Iwanttopushbackon1keypoint.ThenIwillmakesomesmallerremarksbelow.

TheonekeypointisVVPasaKGBman.Idontthinkthatisparticularlyquestionable.Iwouldciteseveralpieces
ofevidence:

Hischildhoodaspirations.
Hiscareerforthefirst15yearsofhislife.
Hisworldview,whichseemsveryinformedbythattimeperiod,fromtheimpulsetocontroltohisstatistand
derzhavnikviewstohissuspicionthatNGOsareworkingtoadvanceforeigninterestsandsoon.Hisfriend
Rolduginsaysbasicallythesamethingin1s tpersonthatVVPsmentalityandworldviewcomesfromtheKGB.
Andheishardlytheonlyone.
Imnotsureaboutyourcounterevidence:
yousayhewassenttoLeningradratherthanMoscow.Howdoyouknowthis?Firstpersonclaimsotherwise
hewasofferedaplaceinMoscow,anddecidednottotakeit.
yousayheresigned.Thedetailsareverymurky,tomeatleast.Heclaimstohavesentaresignationin1990that
wasneverreceived/actedupon,sopresumablyhekeptdrawinghissalary.ThenheclaimsthatinAugust1991,in
themidstofthecoup,hesignedasecondresignation,andsomehowgotSobchaktocallKryuchkovandgethis
resignationpushedthrough.Really?ItshardtobelievethatKrychukovwouldhavetalkedtoSobchakabout
anythingotherthantheongoingcoupiftheytalkedatall,ratherthansigningpapersforsomerandomLt.Col.I
dontagreewithGessenonmanythings,butIthinkherskepticismaboutthisstoryiswarranted.Butevenifwe
dosayheresignedinAugust1991,hebasicallylefttheKGBbecausethecountrywascollapsing.Itdidntseem
likeanideationalbreakorarenunciationofthatexperienceandprofession,butsomethingforcedbya
revolution.
SoIthinkitisfairtosayheisaKGBman.YouprobablysawtheinterviewwithV.Soloveyafewweeksagowhen
hetalkedabouttheconsequencesofhavingwhathecalledprofessionalparanoiacsinchargeofstatepolicy.
Thatistoostrong,obviously,buthewastalkingaboutthesameissueofChekistworldview.
IcanprobablydobetterwithhowIsetuptheKGBstate/militocracyissueItriedtofixitfromthefirstversion,
butobviouslydidntdoagoodenoughjobofthat.
Otherpointsfollowbelow.
Sent:Saturday,July23,201610:20AM
Subject:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Brian:
Thepaperproducesarathermixedimpression.Partsofitareverygood,whileotherpartsare
ratherdiffuseandattimesrepetitive.Thepaperneedstightening.
Thefirsttwoparagraphscouldbeeliminatedwithoutanyharmtothepaper.Infact,thefirstone
isquestionableandisalmostmythmaking,asharpdeparturefromyourusualhardheaded
analysis.PutinisaKGBmandoesnotcomportwithsomeoftheknownfactsofhisbio
specifically,hewasntverygood(beingsenttoLeningradafterE.Germany,ratherthanMoscow,
wastantamounttoaninvitationtoretire),heresigned,andhewasreluctanttoreturntotheFSB.
Partsofwhatfollowsconflatetheverythingsyouseektodebunkinthepaper(KGBvssiloviki).
Andevenifitisamilatocracy,itsnotaKGBstate.
The3rdparagraphstartstogetatwhatyouwanttosay.Reactive&dividedlaterfollowedby
cautiousandconservative.Thatsaid,Ithinkallofthesecharacterizationsarearguable.
Yes,theyareprobablyallarguable.Itskindofhardtomakegeneralstatementsaboutfuturebehaviorabsent
concretescenariosandcircumstances.Thisisjustmybestguess,basedonpastevidenceandcomparative
lessons.Butperhapsyouwanttobemorespecificaboutthewaysinwhichtheyarearguable?
Page6:theexamplefromtheearlyninetieswouldbeokay,butonlyifyoucancomeupwith
morerecentexamplesofthisdiversity.
Fairpoint.Findingmorerecentexamplesisharder,giventhatthereisnooppositionintheDumaanymore,like
therewasinthe90s.Icanpointtospecificpeople,likeformerKGBgeneralA.P.Kondaurov,butitishardertoday.
And,unlikeinthe1990s,wedonthavegoodsurveysofmilitaryofficers.SoImleftwithanecdotesand
examples.
Oryoucoulddropitalltogethersincethenextparagraphmakesamoreimportantpointandcall
tomindthisgemfromPavlovskiy:
^:-""
^:03.09.2003
^:
""-,
.
.,-.
,,
,-.,
,...
...
Page9:thelastsentenceofthefirstfullparagraphreallyneedstobefleshedout,thesegueto
ClubsareTrumpisabittoofasthere.Yousaythepowerandmoneyareoffundamental
importance,butyoudontsaywhy.
Fairenough.
Page13:IwouldntbesocertainthatstatecollapseissounlikelyinRussia.Theregimehas
becomemorebrittlesincePutinreturnedtothepresidency.IwouldalsonotethatFrancedidnt
haveaBonapartisttraditionbeforeNapoleoncameontothescene.
Moststatecollapseintheworldtodayhappensbecauseofnationalist/ethnicseparatism.Iseenobasisforthatin
Russia,withthepossibleexceptionofafewsmallregionsintheNorthCaucasus.Demographicallyand
geographicallyitshardtoimagineanunravelingliketheSovietorYugoslavcollapse.
NotsurewhatFranceinthelate18thcenturytellsusabouttheprospectforamilitarycoupinRussia.Evenin
placeslikeTurkey,withapraetorianmilitaryorganizationalculture,andmultiplesuccessfulcoupsinthelast60
years,weseehowhardtheycanbetopulloff.Istillthinkthisistheleastlikelyscenarioforsilovikibringing
aboutfundamentalpoliticalchangeinRussia.
Page15:NotclearwhyShoyguisoustedfromPutinsinnercircle-hesbeenonmost,ifnotall,
ofthefishingtrips,forexample.
Yes,Ihedgethismoreinthebook.Somesayheisin,otherssayheisout,ormoreaccuratelywasnevertrulyin
(includingVennediktov).
Also,whenPutincreatedtheSKin2007itwassupposedtobesubordinatetotheGP,hencethe
acronymSKP.Itdidntbecomeindependentuntil2011whenthe2010lawcameintoeffect.
Yes,thanks.
Page16:ThecitationfromthatNovayapieceisaratherexplicitchallengetoyour
earlierargumentthattheresnothingtofearfromthesecuritybloc.
ImnotsureIinterpretthatquotethesamewaythatyoudo.Ishesaying,wecandealwithcrowdseasily?oris
hesaying,wedontexpecttohavetodealwithlargecrowdsor,inthesamevein,problemswitheachother
aremuchmorelikelythanchallengesfromthemasses.
Page17&19:Silovikiinsiderwouldratherthancouldinthescenario
yououtlinehere.Ialsothinkyoudrawbetterdistinctionsbetween
regimeandsystemic/fundamentalchange.
DoyoumeanIneedtodrawthisdistinctionbetter?Orthatitisausefuldistinction,andneedstobehighlighted
more?
Ofcourse,thisisyourpaper,Brian,andwearepreparedtoacceptitjustaboutasis.Ithinkthe
ruleisnomorethan20pages.
Ihopeyoufindtheaboveuseful.
b

Again,thanksverymuch.Ireallyappreciateyourclosereadingofit.Iprobablyonlyhavetimeforanotherday
onthis,aftergettingbackfromvacation.Toomanyotherthingsarelooming,andIneedtofinishthedamnbook
(progresshasbeenmade,BTW).IwouldnotatallbeoffendedifThePowersThatBedecidethisisntgood
enough,orthatusefulforus,andsaynothanks.Asyouknow,Iwillgetarevisedversionofthisoutlateratany
rate.
Bestwishes,
Brian
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/23/201609:13:37AM
Subject: Re:--
..
SentfrommyiPhone
SentfrommyiPad
Thanks,Bob.I'llbehonest,myheadisspinningfromallofthis--nofictionwriter
couldhavemadeitup.
Gene:mymemorywashalfwrong.AMaksimenkowasinfactDovgiysSKpersecutor,butitwas
Vladimir,nottheMikhailbelow.BastrykindismissedVladimirin2009andhehadworkedatFSB
directorateM.Mikhailmayhavetoo.:(
OnJul19,2016,at2:45PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.Asidefrom
Nikandrov(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(more
prominentifmemoryserves)inthecaseaginstDovgiy.Dovgiyand
Bastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,
butlaterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)and
probablyKumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe
(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.Dovgiythenturnedto
KhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpupcharges
agstthetwoprominentvictimsofthesilovikiwarBulbovand
Storchak.
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBs
DirectorateMarrestedKalashovdaysago..andMaksimovonce
workedthereaswellaccordingtothenewsrustoryonthislatest
development.
OnJul19,2016,at2:17PM,eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
wrote:
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-zaderzhaniya-
trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-stala-versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-
banditam.html
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/25/201601:32:38PM
To: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject: Re:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Brian:
Justquickly.WecanwaitIbelieveweareinnohurry.Iwillchecktomorrow.
Mycommentsareforyourconsideration.
OntheKGB:
Iamaprovocateurbynature.SoIprovoked.Butjustonepoint:whotellsusin1stPersonthathewasofferedapositionin
Moscow?
Asfortheresignation:onewayortheotherheleft,unlikeSergeyforexample.
HowmanyofthedachacrowdwereKGB?
Ijustthinktheargumentisreductionist,butIhavebeenwrongbefore.
OnJul25,2016,at4:16PM,BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>wrote:
HiBob,



TheonekeypointisVVPasaKGBman.Idontthinkthatisparticularlyquestionable.Iwouldciteseveralpieces
ofevidence:

Hisworldview,whichseemsveryinformedbythattimeperiod,fromtheimpulsetocontroltohisstatistand
derzhavnikviewstohissuspicionthatNGOsareworkingtoadvanceforeigninterestsandsoon.Hisfriend
Rolduginsaysbasicallythesamethingin1s tpersonthatVVPsmentalityandworldviewcomesfromtheKGB.
Andheishardlytheonlyone.

yousayhewassenttoLeningradratherthanMoscow.Howdoyouknowthis?Firstpersonclaimsotherwise
hewasofferedaplaceinMoscow,anddecidednottotakeit.
yousayheresigned.Thedetailsareverymurky,tomeatleast.Heclaimstohavesentaresignationin1990that
wasneverreceived/actedupon,sopresumablyhekeptdrawinghissalary.ThenheclaimsthatinAugust1991,in
themidstofthecoup,hesignedasecondresignation,andsomehowgotSobchaktocallKryuchkovandgethis
resignationpushedthrough.Really?ItshardtobelievethatKrychukovwouldhavetalkedtoSobchakabout
anythingotherthantheongoingcoupiftheytalkedatall,ratherthansigningpapersforsomerandomLt.Col.I
dontagreewithGessenonmanythings,butIthinkherskepticismaboutthisstoryiswarranted.Butevenifwe
dosayheresignedinAugust1991,hebasicallylefttheKGBbecausethecountrywascollapsing.Itdidntseem
likeanideationalbreakorarenunciationofthatexperienceandprofession,butsomethingforcedbya
revolution.

SoIthinkitisfairtosayheisaKGBman.YouprobablysawtheinterviewwithV.Soloveyafewweeksagowhen
hetalkedabouttheconsequencesofhavingwhathecalledprofessionalparanoiacsinchargeofstatepolicy.
Thatistoostrong,obviously,buthewastalkingaboutthesameissueofChekistworldview.
IcanprobablydobetterwithhowIsetuptheKGBstate/militocracyissueItriedtofixitfromthefirstversion,
butobviouslydidntdoagoodenoughjobofthat.
Brian:
Thepaperproducesarathermixedimpression.Partsofitareverygood,whileotherpartsare
ratherdiffuseandattimesrepetitive.Thepaperneedstightening.
Thefirsttwoparagraphscouldbeeliminatedwithoutanyharmtothepaper.Infact,thefirstone
isquestionableandisalmostmythmaking,asharpdeparturefromyourusualhardheaded
analysis.PutinisaKGBmandoesnotcomportwithsomeoftheknownfactsofhisbio
specifically,hewasntverygood(beingsenttoLeningradafterE.Germany,ratherthanMoscow,
wastantamounttoaninvitationtoretire),heresigned,andhewasreluctanttoreturntotheFSB.
Partsofwhatfollowsconflatetheverythingsyouseektodebunkinthepaper(KGBvssiloviki).
Andevenifitisamilatocracy,itsnotaKGBstate.
The3rdparagraphstartstogetatwhatyouwanttosay.Reactive&dividedlaterfollowedby
cautiousandconservative.Thatsaid,Ithinkallofthesecharacterizationsarearguable.
Yes,theyareprobablyallarguable.Itskindofhardtomakegeneralstatementsaboutfuturebehaviorabsent
concretescenariosandcircumstances.Thisisjustmybestguess,basedonpastevidenceandcomparative
lessons.Butperhapsyouwanttobemorespecificaboutthewaysinwhichtheyarearguable?
Page6:theexamplefromtheearlyninetieswouldbeokay,butonlyifyoucancomeupwith
morerecentexamplesofthisdiversity.
Fairpoint.Findingmorerecentexamplesisharder,giventhatthereisnooppositionintheDumaanymore,like
therewasinthe90s.Icanpointtospecificpeople,likeformerKGBgeneralA.P.Kondaurov,butitishardertoday.
And,unlikeinthe1990s,wedonthavegoodsurveysofmilitaryofficers.SoImleftwithanecdotesand
examples.
Oryoucoulddropitalltogethersincethenextparagraphmakesamoreimportantpointandcall
tomindthisgemfromPavlovskiy:
^:-""
^:03.09.2003
^:
""-,
.
.,-.
,,
,-.,
,...
...
Page9:thelastsentenceofthefirstfullparagraphreallyneedstobefleshedout,thesegueto
ClubsareTrumpisabittoofasthere.Yousaythepowerandmoneyareoffundamental
importance,butyoudontsaywhy.
Fairenough.
Page13:IwouldntbesocertainthatstatecollapseissounlikelyinRussia.Theregimehas
becomemorebrittlesincePutinreturnedtothepresidency.IwouldalsonotethatFrancedidnt
haveaBonapartisttraditionbeforeNapoleoncameontothescene.
Moststatecollapseintheworldtodayhappensbecauseofnationalist/ethnicseparatism.Iseenobasisforthatin
Russia,withthepossibleexceptionofafewsmallregionsintheNorthCaucasus.Demographicallyand
geographicallyitshardtoimagineanunravelingliketheSovietorYugoslavcollapse.
NotsurewhatFranceinthelate18thcenturytellsusabouttheprospectforamilitarycoupinRussia.Evenin
placeslikeTurkey,withapraetorianmilitaryorganizationalculture,andmultiplesuccessfulcoupsinthelast60
years,weseehowhardtheycanbetopulloff.Istillthinkthisistheleastlikelyscenarioforsilovikibringing
aboutfundamentalpoliticalchangeinRussia.
Page15:NotclearwhyShoyguisoustedfromPutinsinnercircle-hesbeenonmost,ifnotall,
ofthefishingtrips,forexample.
Yes,Ihedgethismoreinthebook.Somesayheisin,otherssayheisout,ormoreaccuratelywasnevertrulyin
(includingVennediktov).
Also,whenPutincreatedtheSKin2007itwassupposedtobesubordinatetotheGP,hencethe
acronymSKP.Itdidntbecomeindependentuntil2011whenthe2010lawcameintoeffect.
Yes,thanks.
Page16:ThecitationfromthatNovayapieceisaratherexplicitchallengetoyour
earlierargumentthattheresnothingtofearfromthesecuritybloc.
ImnotsureIinterpretthatquotethesamewaythatyoudo.Ishesaying,wecandealwithcrowdseasily?oris
hesaying,wedontexpecttohavetodealwithlargecrowdsor,inthesamevein,problemswitheachother
aremuchmorelikelythanchallengesfromthemasses.
Page17&19:Silovikiinsiderwouldratherthancouldinthescenario
yououtlinehere.Ialsothinkyoudrawbetterdistinctionsbetween
regimeandsystemic/fundamentalchange.
DoyoumeanIneedtodrawthisdistinctionbetter?Orthatitisausefuldistinction,andneedstobehighlighted
more?
Ofcourse,thisisyourpaper,Brian,andwearepreparedtoacceptitjustaboutasis.Ithinkthe
ruleisnomorethan20pages.
b
Again,thanksverymuch.Ireallyappreciateyourclosereadingofit.Iprobablyonlyhavetimeforanotherday
onthis,aftergettingbackfromvacation.Toomanyotherthingsarelooming,andIneedtofinishthedamnbook
(progresshasbeenmade,BTW).IwouldnotatallbeoffendedifThePowersThatBedecidethisisntgood
enough,orthatusefulforus,andsaynothanks.Asyouknow,Iwillgetarevisedversionofthisoutlateratany
rate.
Bestwishes,
Brian
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/24/201606:09:39AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comlindanemec@gmail.com
Subject: Trump'sPutinFantasybyTimothySnyder|NYRDaily|TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/04/19/trumps-putin-fantasy/
TrumpsPutinFantasy
CarloAllegri/ReutersMaximShemetov/ReutersDonaldTrumpinSyracuse,NewYork,April16,2016
VladimirPutininMoscow,Russia,April14,2016
FewforeignleadersseementhusiasticabouttheprospectofaDonaldTrumppresidency.Butthereisonewhoshouldbepleased:
VladimirPutin.OrsoTrumpseemstothink.MostprominentRepublicanscriticizePresidentObamaforreactingtoofeeblytoRussian
domesticoppression,theRussianinvasionofsouthernandsoutheasternUkraine,andRussiasgrowingthreattoNATOinEastern
Europe.Trump,ontheotherhand,haspraisedPutinsstrongleadershipathome,calledNATOobsoleteandexpensive,andmadea
pointofdescribinghisfriendshipwithPutinthoughitseemstobeentirelyimaginary.
Fromthebeginningofhiscandidacylastsummer,TrumphasrepeatedlyclaimedthathewouldgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.
Lastfall,afterhewasinterviewedonthesamesegmentof60MinutesasPutin,hewarmlyreferredtotheexperienceofbeing
stablematesasgoingwell.Thiswasstrikinglyatoddswithreality,sinceTrumpwasintheUSandPutininRussiaduringthe
interviews,andthetwomendidnotinfactmeet.
Moreextraordinarystill,Trumphasindicated,inhisselectionlastmonthofCarterPageasaforeignpolicyadviser,thatAmericanpolicy
toEuropewillbeguidedbyRussianinterests.Page,heretoforeknownasanadvisertoRussiasstategascompany,hasbeenamongthe
prominentAmericansspreadingRussianpropagandaaboutUkrainesrevolutionin2014andtheRussianinvasionthatfollowed.Inhis
writingshehasquestionedUkrainesstatusasanindependentstate,whichispreciselythelinethatMoscowtooktojustifyitsinvasion.
HemaintainspreposterouslythatUkraineislikeQuebecinsideaRussiathatislikeCanada.QuebecisaprovinceandUkraineisa
country.HehasreferredtoRussiasannexationofUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula,asignalviolationofinternationallaw,astheso-called
annexation.
ItisnothardtoseewhyTrumpmightchoosePutinashisfantasyfriend.PutinistherealworldversionofthepersonTrumppretendsto
beontelevision.Trumpsfinancialsuccess(suchasitis)hasbeenasaNewYorkrealestatespeculator,aworldofprivatedeal-making
thatcanseemroughandtoughuntilyoucompareittotheRussiaofthe1990sthatultimatelyproducedthePutinregime.Trump
presentshimselfasthemakerofafinancialempirewhoiswillingtobreakalltherules,whereasthatiswhatPutininfactis.Thusfar
Trumpcanonlyverballyabusehisopponentsatrallies,whereasPutinsopponentsareassassinated.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyhavehis
campaignmanagerroughupjournalistshedoesntlike.InRussiasomeofthebestjournalistsareinfactmurdered.
PresidentPutin,whoisanintelligentandpenetratingjudgeofmen,especiallymenwithmasculinityissues,hasquicklydrawnthecorrect
conclusion.Inthepasthehasdonewellforhimselfbyrecruitingamongpoliticianswhoexhibitgreatervanitythandecency,suchasSilvio
BerlusconiandGerhardSchrder.ThepremiseofRussianforeignpolicytotheWestisthattheruleoflawisonebigjokethepractice
ofRussianforeignpolicyistofindprominentpeopleintheWestwhoagree.MoscowhasfoundsuchpeoplethroughoutEuropeuntilthe
riseofTrumptheideaofanAmericanwhowouldvolunteertobeaKremlinclientwouldhaveseemedunlikely.Trumprepresentsan
unprecedentedstandardofAmericanservility,andshouldthereforebecultivatedasafutureRussianclient.
TrumpcorrectlysaysthatPutinrespectsstrength.ButofcoursePutinprefersweakness,whichiswhatTrumpoffers.AsPutin
understandsperfectlywell,thepresidentoftheUnitedStateshasstandinginRussia,andenjoysfarsuperiorpowertothepresidentof
Russia,onlyinsofarasheorshemobilizesthemoralandpoliticalresourcesofarule-of-lawstate.ItispreciselyTrumpsposeofstrength
thatrevealshiscrucialvulnerability.AsanyonefamiliarwithRussianpoliticsunderstands,anAmericanpresidentwhoshunsallianceswith
fellowdemocracies,praisesdictators,andprefersdealstotheruleoflawwouldbeaveryeasymarkinMoscow.Itisunclearhow
muchmoneyTrumphas,butitisnotenoughtomatterinRussia.Ifhekeepsuphisposeasthetoughbillionaire,hewillbeflatteredby
theRussianmedia,scornedbythosewhomatterinRussia,andtheneasilycrushedbymenfarricherandsmarterthanhe.
PutinhasbeenaccordinglycircumspectinhisreturnofTrumpswooing.ForhimTrumpisasmallmanwhomightgaingreatpower.The
trickistomanipulatethesmallmanandtherebyneutralizethegreatpower.InhisannualpressconferencelastDecember,afterhearing
sixmonthsofpraisefromTrump,PutinsaidthathewelcomedTrumpsideaofplacingUS-Russianrelationsonamoresolidbasis,and
characterizedTrumpasflamboyant,talented,withoutadoubt.Itishardtomisstheambiguityofflamboyant,butTrumpchoseto
missit.
ThenextdayTrumpseemedpleased.PerhapshavingbeenmisadvisedaboutwhatPutinactuallysaid,Trumpsaidthat,Whenpeople
callyoubrilliantitsalwaysgood.Aftersuggestingthatkillingjournalistswasnormal,heconcludedwarmlythatIvealwaysfeltfine
aboutPutin,Ithinkthat,youknow,hesastrongleader,hesapowerfulleader,hesrepresentedhiscountry.Notlongafterthat,Trump
defendedPutinfromtheofficialBritishinquiryintotheassassinationofAlexanderLitvinenko.TrumpsreasoningwasthatPutinsaidhe
didntdoit.InMarchTrumpsaidthatPutinwasastrongerleaderthanthepresidentoftheUnitedStates.Foracrumbofpraisefrom
Putin,Trumphaspresentedcriminalityasnormalandsoldouthisownheadofstate.
LetusimaginethefirstfewweeksofaTrumpadministration.Mostofhisdomesticagendawillquicklyproveillegal,oratleastvery
complicatedtoimplement.Heisnotamanwhohasdisplayedmuchpatienceformanagement.Itseemsverylikelythathewouldquickly
turnabroadforthatsurgeofapprovalthatheseemstofindsopleasurable.Andtherewouldbenoeasierwaytogainsuchafeelingthan
curryingfavorwithPutin.Itissomucheasiertoignoretraditionalalliesthantocultivatethem,andsomucheasiertoignoreaggression
thantomaintainorder.ThelouchestylethatTrumpseemslikelytobringtoAmericanforeignpolicyisallhewillneedtogarnerpraise
fromthemanheadmires.GivenwhatTrumphasdonethusfar,undernostressandwithlittleencouragement,itisterrifyingto
contemplatewhathewoulddoasafrustratedAmericanpresidentlookingforlove.
EvenasPutincarefullycultivatesafutureclient,theRussianpopulation(aloneinthedevelopedworld)prefersTrumptoClinton,and
RussianelitesrevealtheirexcitementattheprospectofatameAmerica.Itisunusual,ofcourse,forRussianorotherpublicfiguresto
takesidesinAmericanelections.Prudenceusuallyoverridespreferenceeventhemostwillfulauthoritariansandmediafiguresusually
hedgetheirbets,knowingthatendorsingalosingcandidatecanbringeightyearsofbadluckwhileendorsingtheeventualwinnermay
bringverylittle.Inthisparticularelectioncycle,however,Russianpoliticiansareinanunusualsituation.HillaryClintonhasbeenthetarget
ofsuchcriticismfromRussiaanditscurrentpresidentthatitisimpossibletocreatetheimpressionofevenhandedness.InDecember
2011,VladimirPutinpersonally(andabsurdly)blamedClinton,thenUSsecretaryofstate,forgivingasignalthatpromptedRussians
toprotestfakedparliamentaryelections.
Onceliberatedfromthenormalrulesofthegame,Russianpoliticianshavebeenabletogivevoicetowhatseemslikeheartfeltsympathy
forTrump.VasilyLikhachev,aCommunistintheRussianparliament,explicitlyexpressedhispreferenceforTrumpoverClinton.Dmitry
Kiselev,theRussiantalkshowstarbestknownintheWestforremindingusthatRussiacanturntheUSintoradioactiveashandfor
advisingthattheheartsofgaysbeburnedaftertheirdeaths,gushesthatanewstarisrisingTrump.KonstantinRykov,amemberof
PutinsUnitedRussiapartyandaleadingmediamanager,opinesthatTrumpistheveryembodimentoftheAmericandream.Aleksei
Pushkov,thechairmanoftheRussianparliamentsinternationalaffairscommittee,tweetsadmiringlyaboutTrumponaregularbasis.
Mostrevealingly,hewrotethatTrumpcanleadtheWesternlocomotiverightofftherails.
TheexplicitendorsementofTrumpbyAleksandrDugin,theleadingRussianfascistideologueandaveryimportantmediapresencein
Russia,isparticularlyalarming.ThepremiseofDuginsEurasianmovementisthatRussiaandtheWestareartificiallyseparatedby
enlightenedideasoftheruleoflawandindividualrights.OnceleadersoftheWestunderstandthattheseareartificial(Jewish)
implantations,theycanjoinRussiaintheembraceoffascism.DuginaccordinglypraisestheAmericanpeople,callinguponthemtoshed
theiroligarchicelitesandreturntotheirtrue(fascist)values.IreadDuginsuseofoligarchictomeanJewishasuspicion
confirmedbyDuginsreactiontoanactualoligarchwhoenjoysthebackingofAmericanneo-Nazis:Trumpisthevoiceoftherealright
winginAmerica,hewrites.VoteforTrump!
TheRussianexpectationisthataTrumpvictorywouldberuinousforAmericanpower,andthatsuchpowerasremainswillbedeployed
tosupportRussianinterests.TrumpsfantasyfriendshipwithPutinisonemorereasontoexpectthataTrumpvictorywouldalsobe
disastrousforAmericanvaluesandinstitutions.Putincanbeexpected,ifthetwomenactuallymeetaspresidents,toflatterTrumps
vanityandurgehimonwardtowardafullassaultontheConstitution.RussiaisinadownwardspiralofitsownwhatAmericansmust
considernowisaweakpresidentialcandidatewhowantstofollowPutinscharmwhereitleads,whichmostlikelymeansstraighttothe
bottom.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/25/201612:07:52PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclear
Subject:
PolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenukearsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpi
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,July25,201611:38AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlans
NuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenukearsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristol
pie...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at11:05AM
Subject:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI
FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals
ByFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik
OnJuly10,theWashingtonPostreportedthatPresidentObamasnationalsecurityteamhadbeguntoassembleadisarmamentagendaforthe
Presidentsfinalmonthsoffice.Bydesign,theagendaconsistedofinitiativesthatthePresidentcouldimplementwithoutcongressionalapproval
eventhoughsomeentailedbreakingpledgesmadetoCongressinpreviousyears.ThisconcernledtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeto
summonkeyadministrationofficialsforahearingonnuclearpolicy,whichlaidbarethefaultlinesonthisissuebetweentheWhiteHouseandthe
Pentagon.Althoughhesitanttospeakdirectlytointernaldebates,seniormilitaryleadersbelievethatthecredibilityoftheU.S.nucleardeterrent
couldbediminishedbythepoliciesthatarenowgainingtractionattheWhiteHouse.

HintsofaWhiteHouseReversal

InaJune6addresstotheArmsControlAssociation,DeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorBenRhodesgavethefirsthintsofaturnaboutonnuclear
policy.Rhodestoldtheaudience,IcanpromiseyoutodaythatPresidentObamaiscontinuingtoreviewanumberofwayshecanadvancethe
Pragueagendaoverthecourseofthenextsevenmonths.Putsimply,ourworkisnotfinishedontheseissues.Sevenyearsago,PresidentObama
deliveredamajoraddressinthecapitaloftheCzechRepublic,wherehesaid,ToputanendtoColdWarthinking,wewillreducetheroleof
nuclearweaponsinournationalsecuritystrategywewillbegintheworkofreducingourarsenal.

AttheArmsControlAssociation,Rhodestouchedanervebysuggestingthepossibilityofsubstantialreductionstothenuclearweapons
budget.Inmid-June,SenateArmedServicesChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R-TN)sentaletterto
PresidentObamawarninghimthatbudgetcutswouldviolatehis2010agreementwiththeSenate,whichentailedacommitmenttoprovidefull
fundingforthemodernizationoftheU.S.nucleararsenalinexchangeforSenateratificationoftheNewSTARTtreatywithRussia.

ItsoonbecameapparentthatSenatorsonbothsidesoftheaislesharedtheapprehensionofthetwocommitteechairmen.OnJuly8,fourteen
SenatorssignedalettertotheSecretaryofDefenseexpressingtheiruneasewithrecentstatementsbystaffmembersoftheNationalSecurity
CouncilthatquestionthenuclearmodernizationagendaandthreatentounderminethePentagonscommitmenttotheagendasimplementation.
SignatoriesincludedSen.TimKaine(D-VA)andSen.JackReed(D-RI),therankingmemberoftheArmedServicesCommittee.
Inadditiontopotentialbudgetcuts,theWashingtonPostidentifiedseveralotherdisarmamentinitiativesunderconsiderationattheWhiteHouse.
Theyincludedthecancellationofaprogramtoreplaceagingcruisemissiles,afive-yearextensionoftheNewSTARTagreement,UNapprovalof
theunratifiedComprehensiveTestBanTreaty(CTBT),andapublicpledgethattheUnitedStateswouldneverusenuclearweaponsunless
anothernationusedthemfirst.
ACongressionalSpotlightonNuclearPolicy
Knowingthatseniormilitaryleadershaveseriousreservationsabouttheseoptions,theHouseArmedServicesCommitteeaskedthemtotestify
onJuly14,inordertoraisepublicawarenessofthetensionbetweentheapparentWhiteHouseagendaandthebestadviceofthosedirectly
responsibleforthenucleardeterrent.WhatthehearingdemonstratedisthatPentagonleadersarewaryofinvolvementinpoliticizeddebates,yet
preparedtoalertlawmakersandthepublictotheirconcernsaboutthecredibilityandreliabilityoftheU.S.deterrent.
Ontheissueoffundingforthenucleartriad,AdmiralCecilHaney,headofU.S.StrategicCommand,saidthatthePresidentsproposedbudgetfor
2017supportsmymissionrequirements.Butletmebeclear,thereisnomargintoabsorbnewrisk.Inotherwords,cuttingthebudgetwouldbe
irresponsible.
Whenaskedabouttheadvisabilityofanofirstusepolicy,AdmiralHaneysignaledhisconcernbyinsistingacarefulreviewwouldhaveto
precedeanychanges.Ifanofirstusepolicywereproposed,hesaid,Thatwouldrequiresomescrutinytomakesurewearenotgoingtoimpact
strategicstability.WhenaskedifanofirstusepolicywouldlimittheoptionsavailabletothePresidentinacrisis,Haneyrespondedthathis
generalapproachismakingsureIcanmaximizepresidentialdecisionspaceandoptions.
AdmiralHaneyandtheotherwitnessespreferredabolderapproachwhenaddressingthemeritsofcurrentplanstobuildanewcruisemissile
knownastheLongRangeStand-Offweapon,orLRS-O.GeneralRobinRand,theheadofAirForceGlobalStrikeCommand,describedthecurrent
versionoftheair-launchedcruisemissile(ALCM)asa10-yearmissileinits30t hyearwhichwillbeincreasinglyvulnerabletoenemyair
defenses.AdmiralHaneyofferedhisassessmentthatfieldingLRS-Oasareplacementwillhelptodeterescalationduringfutureconflictswhile
reassuringallieswhodependontheU.S.nuclearumbrella,becausethedeploymentofnuclear-capablecruisemissilesisavisiblesignofresolve,
whereassubmarinesarenot.
GeneralRandalsospokeforcefullyabouttheneedtoreplacetheMinutemanIII,theagingmainstayoftheintercontinentalballisticmissile(ICBM)
force.RandobservedthattheMinutemanIIIiscominguponits50t hyearinservice.AlthoughopponentsofanewICBMhaveproposedan
efforttoextendtheservicelifeoftheMinutemanIII,Randdismissedthatoptionasunwiseongroundsofbothcostandeffectiveness.Hesaid
anewICBMwouldbemorereliableandmoresurvivableaswellascostingjustslightlylessthanalifeextensionfortheMinutemanIII.
RobertScher,theAssistantSecretaryofDefenseforStrategy,Plans,andCapabilities,revealedsubstantiallylessabouthisopinionsthanthe
militarymenonthepanel,yetevenScherhintedathisreservationsoncertainpoints.Whenaskedwhethertheadministrationwouldextendthe
NewSTARTtreatydespiteRussiasflagrantviolationofotherarmscontrolpacts,Schersimplysaid,Idonotknowtheanswer.Whenasked
whetheranyoneelseknewtheanswer,Scherresponded,Thereareongoingdiscussions,asyouveheard,butIreallyamnotatlibertytotalk
aboutongoingdiscussionsbeforedecisionshavebeenmade.
ScheralsosaidthathecouldnotdisclosethecontentofdiscussionsaboutbypassingSenateratificationofCTBTyetacknowledgedthathehad
anticipatedthequestion,sincethetoparmscontrolofficialattheStateDepartmenthadpreviouslyassuredthecommitteethattheSenates
prerogativeswouldberespected.Furthermore,SchertestifiedthathehadcontactedthatsameofficialpriortohistestimonybeforetheHouseand
shestandsbythestatementsthat[seekingaUNresolutiononCTBT]wouldtakeawaytheprerogativeoftheSenateforratifyingtreated.In
effect,SchersentamessagethatboththePentagonandtheStateDepartmentopposedanyefforttobypasstheSenate,evenifsomeintheWhite
Housefavoredthatapproach.
Finally,whenaddressingLRS-O,Schersimplygavehisunqualifiedopinionthatfieldinganupdatednuclear-capablecruisemissileiscriticalto
U.S.nationalsecurity.Thepreviousday,atahearingfocusedentirelyonLRS-O,Scherelaboratedhisargumentsonbehalfofthemissileprogram
ingreaterdetail.SeniorofficialsfromtheDepartmentsofStateandEnergyexpressedstrongagreement.Onthisparticularissue,WhiteHouse
skepticsseemtohavefewalliesevenwithintheadministration.
WhatWillPresidentObamaDecide?
TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheWhiteHousehasconvenedtwoCabinet-levelmeetingstoreviewapotentialdisarmamentagendaforthe
Presidentsfinalmonthsinoffice.Nofinaldecisionshavebeenmade,thepapersaid,butObamaisexpectedtoweighinpersonallysoon.
WhenthePresidentfinallyweighsin,heshouldkeepinmindthe2010letteronnuclearmodernization,inwhichhepledgedtotheSenatethatmy
AdministrationwillpursuetheseprogramsandcapabilitiesforaslongasIamPresident.Alast-minutecancellationofmissilereplacement
programsorabidtocutthenuclearweaponsbudgetwouldviolatethispledge.SeekingUNapprovaloftheCTBTwouldbreakaseparatepromise
theadministrationmadetoCongress.ThedecisiontoextendNewSTARTshouldbemadebythenextpresident,sincetheextensionwouldrun
throughtheendofhisorhertenure.
Moreimportantly,thereisnostrategicjustificationforanyoftheinitiativestheWhiteHouseisapparentlyconsidering.Nucleardangershave
onlyintensifiedsincethePresidentunveiledhisPragueagenda.TestifyingbeforetheHouse,RobertScherdescribedRussianeffortstolowerthe
thresholdforemployingnuclearweaponsasparticularlyconcerninganddangerous.Yeteachandeveryoneoftheinitiativesunder
considerationbytheWhiteHouseprimarilyconstrainstheUnitedStatesandlessensthecredibilityofitsnucleardeterrentwhilefailingtoreinin
theprovocationsofhostilenuclearweaponstates.SevenyearsafterPresidentObamaunveiledhisPragueagenda,itremainsunclearwhetherhe
haslearnedthatAmericanconcessionscannotreducethethreatofnuclearwarifRussia,China,NorthKoreaandothersremainfirmlycommitted
togrowingandmodernizingtheirarsenals.
AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledby
ExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitour
websiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
IfyousupportFPI'smission,pleaseconsidermakingatax-deductibledonationtoday.
TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI
From:YuriShymko<yurishymko7@gmail.com>
Date:Sun,Jul24,2016at11:05PM
Subject:PutinsinfluenceoverUSpolitics
To:
ExcellentarticlebyWilliamKristolcallingonRepublicanleaderstoinvestigateTrump'sconnectiontoPutin.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/putins-party/article/2003473
Putin'sParty?
7:00AM,JUL24,2016|ByWILLIAMKRISTOL
GageSkidmore

DonaldJ.Trumpisthepresidentialnomineeofthe
Republicanparty.Butthatdoesnotabsolveevery
Republicanofficeholder,donor,andactivistfromthe
responsibilityofsatisfyinghimselfthatitisrighttosupport
thatnomineeforpresident.Thereare,inmyjudgment,many
reasonstodoubtthisisthecase.Butonereasonin
particularhasn'treceivedsufficientconsideration:Thefact
thatTrumpandhistopcampaignaidehavemanytroubling
connectionswithVladimirPutin'sregime.
HonestandpatrioticRepublicanswhosupportTrump,oraretemptedtodoso,shouldreview
someofthepubliclyavailableevidence.Trump'sbusinessseemstobeheavily
dependentonRussianinvestment.Histopcampaignadvisor,PaulManafort,wastheadvisorto
thePutin-backedstoogeViktorYanukovich,andhasdeeptiestothePutinapparat.Oneof
Trump'snationalsecurityadvisors,retiredLt.GeneralMichaelFlynn,waspaidtogiveaspeechat
aRussianpropagandacelebrationandwasseatednexttoPutin.Trump'sRussiaadvisorCarter
Page,whodoesmuchofhisbusinesswithRussiancompanies,hasargued,amongotherthings,
that"afewofficialsinWashington"annexedUkraineandthatthe"so-calledannexation"ofCrimea
byRussiawasarationalresponsetothisinjustice.
Furthermore,practicallytheonlychangeTrump'scampaignmadetotheGOPplatformwasto
weakenlanguagesupportingUkraine.Wikileaks,whichappearstohaveconnectionstoPutin's
espionageapparatus,hasreleasedemailsthataredamagingtoHillaryClintonimmediatelybefore
theDemocraticconvention.Trumpheartilyapprovesofthisinterferencebyaforeignpowerinan
Americanelection.TheyapparentlyintendtodothesamewithemailshackedfromClinton
Foundationservers.Finally,Trump,tothecheersoftheKremlinestablishment,hassaidhewillnot
upholdourNATOcommitments.
TheseindicationsprovidesufficientgroundsforTrump'slinkstoPutintobefurtherinvestigated.
PoliticianswhoarecurrentlysupportingTrumpshouldwithdrawtheirunconditionalsupport"until,"
asMr.Trumpmightsay,"wecanfigureoutwhat'sgoingon."Onethingthatwouldhelpusfigure
outwhat'sgoingonisifTrumpandManafortreleasedtheirtaxreturns.Theyofcoursehaven't
doneso.Indeed,it'sstrikingthatneitherseemseventohaveputhiscurrentbusinessinterestsin
anykindofblindtrust.Sowedon'tknowhowdirectandcloseafinancialrelationshipTrumpand
ManaforthavewiththePutinregime.
IfTrumpandManafortdon'tacttoallaytheseconcernsbyreleasingtheirtaxreturns(orinother
ways),wouldn'titbeadvisableforaRepublicanmemberofCongresstoleadanurgent
investigationintowhetherPutinisinterferinginthecurrentAmericanelection?Trumpand
ManafortmaybePutin'schumps.WillotherRepublicanssitbyasthewholeRepublicanparty
becomesPutin'sparty?
From:@hunter
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at10:03AM
Subject:CybersecurityExpertsSayRussiaHackedtheDemocrats
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
WAZ:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidtoHilary'sunsecuredserver?H
NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeaked
DNCEmailstoAidTrump
(APPhoto/AlexBrandon)ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201610:46AM
AfterFriday'sleakof20,000stolenemailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommittee,thesecondofitskindinthreemonths,The
NewYorkTimesranastorysuggestingalinkfromthehackstoRussiaPresidentVladimirPutintoaidDonaldTrump.
WhathadbeenquietinnuendohasevolvedintotheKremlin'sroleinthehackandleakandwhetherPutinhasanactiverolein
influencingtheelectioninfavorofTrump.
TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernieSandersandledtothe
swiftresignationannouncementofDemocraticNationalCommitteeChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.
U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundtheDNCbreachwasdonebythesameRussianintelligencehackerstheyfoundlodgedin
sensitivegovernmentagencyserversbefore,andthoughadirecttracebacktoanyonespecificisnearlyimpossible,it'senoughto
emboldenclaimsofconspiracytheoriesfromtheleft.
HillaryClintoncampaignmanagerRobbyMooktooktotheSundaymorningtalkshowcircuittoclaimtheRussiansarehelping
DonaldTrump,aHailMarydenouncedandridiculedbyTeamTrump,theTimesreported.
ButbetweentherepeatedhitonDemocrats,Trump'spublicrespectforRussiaPresidentVladimirPutin,hisanti-NATOremark
lastweek,andcampaignmanagerPaulManafort'stiestotheformerRussian-backedleaderofUkraine,there'senoughintriguefor
aspynovel.
ButwhatimpactithasthisweekontheDemocraticconventionespeciallywithSanderssupportersinPhiladelphiaandon
theelectionissomethingthathastobemanaged.Andquestionsaregettingasked.
ManafortonSundaywasaskedbyABCdirectlyifthereareanytiesbetweenTrumpandPutin.
"No,therearenot,"ManafortwasquotedbytheTimes."That'sabsurd.And,youknow,there'snobasistoit."
RelatedStories:
DebbieWassermanSchultztoStepDownasDNCChairAfterConvention
ClintonCampaignManager:RussiansBehindLeakedDNCEmails
2016Newsmax.Allrightsreserved.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/russia-democrat-dnc-debbie-wasserman-
schultz/2016/07/25/id/740274/#ixzz4FRgB00wJ
CybersecurityExpertsSayRussia
HackedtheDemocrats
256 JULY25,20166:46AMEDT By
EliLake
IstheKremlintryingtothrowtheU.S.presidentialelectiontoDonaldTrump?Itsoundslikesomethingoutof
aspynovel.Butmanycybersecurityexperts,aswellastheHillaryClintoncampaign,arenowsayingthe
Russiansareresponsibleforlastmonth'shackoftheDemocraticNationalCommittee.
ThathackhasdominatedthenewscycleontheeveoftheDemocraticconvention,andforgoodreason.
TheemailsdisclosedFridaybyWikiLeaksareembarrassing.TheyshowDNCchairwoman,Debbie
WassermanSchultz,plottingtounderminethecampaignofSenatorBernieSanders,confirmingtheworst
suspicionsoftheleftflankoftheparty.SheresignedherpostonSunday.
Butthebiggerissueiswhowasresponsibleforthehackinthefirstplace.BobGourley,aformerchief
technologyofficerfortheDefenseIntelligenceAgencyandnowtheco-founderandpartnerCognitio,a
cybersecurityconsultancy,toldmeSundaythathethinkstheRussiansdidit.
"ThesoftwarecodethatIhaveseenfromthehackhadallthetelltalesignsofbeingRussian,includingcode
re-usedfromotherattacks,"Gourleytoldme."Thisisareallybigdeal.Somepeopleinthecommunityare
sayingthisistheRussianspretendingtobeahacker,thengivingthatinformationtoJulianAssangeisall
partofanoperation."(AssangefoundedWikiLeaks.)
Gourleyisnotaloneamongcybersecurityexperts.WhenthehackoftheDNCwasfirstdisclosedinJune,
thesecurityfirmCrowdstrikealsopointedtotheRussians.Crowdstrikeinvestigatedtheincidentforthe
DemocraticpartyandconcludeditwasthesameactorthatpenetratedtheStateDepartment,WhiteHouse
andPentagonunclassifiedsystemsin2015.Describingthecodeusedforthepenetrationinablogpost,
Crowdstrikeco-founderDmitriAlperovitchwrote:"Bothadversariesengageinextensivepoliticaland
economicespionageforthebenefitofthegovernmentoftheRussianFederationandarebelievedtobe
closelylinkedtotheRussiangovernmentspowerfulandhighlycapableintelligenceservices."
Overtheweekend,theTrumpandClintoncampaignstradedaccusationsontheissue.
ClintoncampaignmanagerRobbieMooktoldABCNewstheexpertsconsultedbythecampaignsaiditwas
Russia.PaulManafort,whorunstheTrumpcampaign,respondedthatthiswas"pureobfuscation."
ThetechnicalcaseforattributingtheDNChacktoRussiarestsinthesimilarityofthecodefoundonthe
committeesserverstootherhacksbelievedtohaveoriginatedinRussia.Gourleyacknowledgesthoughthis
isn'tfoolproof."ItcouldbesomehackerinagarageinFloridafoundthiscodeandre-usedit,"hesaid."But
historicallythebadguysre-usetheirowncodealot."
ThereisalsoacircumstantialcasethattheRussiansarebehindthehack.Tostart,ViceMagazine's
MotherboardchannelgotholdoftheallegedRomanianhacker,Guccifer2.0,whohasclaimedcreditforthe
cyberskullduggery.ThehackerwasaskedtodescribehishackinRomanianandcouldn'tstringtogethera
coherentsentenceinthelanguage.
Thenthereisthequestionofwhobenefits.WhileClintonimplementedaresetinrelationswithRussiawhen
shewassecretaryofstate,shehassincesouredonMoscow.WhenRussianirregularsinvadedUkrainein
2014,shecomparedPutintoHitler.
Trumpontheotherhandhasbuckedhisparty'sRussiahawks.HehassaidhewouldonlyaidNATOstates
iftheypaidtheirfairshareofthedefenseburdeninEurope.UntilTrump,noRepublicanpresidential
nomineehasquestionedtheU.S.mutual-defensecommitmentenshrinedinNATO.
DevinNunes,theRepublicanchairmanoftheHousePermanentSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,toldme
thatitwasinRussianpresidentVladimirPutin'sinterestfor"theDemocratstokeeppoweroverforeign
policyandtohaveHillaryClinton--architectoftheRussiaresetpolicythatopenedthedoorforPutin's
aggressionthroughouttheglobe--becomepresident."Headded:"That'swhyIlikethisparticular
conspiracytheoryeventhoughIdon'tbelieveit--itwouldmeanPutinisfarlessintelligentthanIthought,
andthatwouldbecomfortingtome."
MikeVickers,aformerundersecretaryofdefenseforIntelligenceandaClintonsupporter,disagrees."I
thinkallsignspointtocyberactorswithtiestoRussianIntelligence,hetoldmeonSunday.Whatis
unprecedented,itseemstome,istheuseofthesetoolsforcovertpoliticalinfluenceagainsttheUnited
Statesduringapresidentialgeneralelection."
Thatindeedwouldbeunprecedented.TheRussiansoperateRT,anEnglish-languagetelevisionnetworkthat
givesairtimeto9/11conspiracytheoristsandotheranti-Americanviews.IftheRussiansarebehindthe
DNChack,itwouldbeanewtacticthatcombinesthestate'sovertinfluenceoperationswithitscovert
cyber-spying.
MikeFlynn,whoservedasDefenseIntelligenceAgencydirectorbetween2012and2014andisanadviser
totheTrumpcampaign,toldmehewouldn'tbesurprisediftheRussianswerebehindtheDNChack.Both
ChinaandRussiahavethefullcapabilitytodothis,"hesaid."IfsomeoneweretofindoutRussiadidthisI
wouldnotbesurprisedatall."Flynnsaid,however,thattherealproblemisthatthereisverypoor
informationsecurityforU.S.politicalpartiesandcampaigns."Thisisanotheremailscandalforthe
Democraticparty,"hesaid.
Thereissomethingtothis.LastyearagroupcalledtheOnlineTrustAlliancesurveyedmajorpresidential
campaignwebsitesandfoundthatonlysixmetbasicstandardsforsecurity,privacyandconsumerdata
protection.
PartoftheproblemisthattheFederalElectionCommissiondoesnotimposebasiccybersecurity
standardsforpoliticalpartiesandcampaignsthewaytheFederalTradeCommissiondoesforU.S.
businesses."Bynothavingaregulatorthathastheauthoritytoinvestigatethecampaignsandthedata
securitypracticesofpoliticalparties,itwasonlyamatteroftimebeforeacampaignornationalpartywas
hacked,"ChrisSoghoian,thechieftechnologistfortheAmericanCivilLibertiesUniontoldme.
Inthissense,theproblemofRussianhackingmaybebipartisan.InMay,DirectorofNationalIntelligence
JamesClappersaidtherewereindicationsofhacksagainstboththeTrumpandClintoncampaigns.
Thismaybetrue,butsofaronlytheDemocratshaveseentheirpilferedemailsmadepublic.Inthatsenseit
looksliketheRussiansareplayingfavoritesinAmericanpolitics,somethingtheKremlinhasaccusedthe
U.S.ofdoingtoRussiaforthelast100years.
ThiscolumndoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheeditorialboardorBloombergLPanditsowners.
Tocontacttheauthorofthisstory:
EliLakeatelake1@bloomberg.net
Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisstory:
TobinHarshawattharshaw@bloomberg.net
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/23/201609:40:55AM
Cc: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>chrisbort@gmail.com
Subject: Re:--
--
OnSat,Jul23,2016at12:37PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
?
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul23,2016,at12:13PM,ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>wrote:
..
SentfrommyiPhone
SentfrommyiPad
Thanks,Bob.I'llbehonest,myheadisspinningfromallofthis--no
fictionwritercouldhavemadeitup.
Gene:mymemorywashalfwrong.AMaksimenkowasinfactDovgiysSK
persecutor,butitwasVladimir,nottheMikhailbelow.BastrykindismissedVladimirin
2009andhehadworkedatFSBdirectorateM.Mikhailmayhavetoo.:(
OnJul19,2016,at2:45PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
wrote:
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.
AsidefromNikandrov(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalso
playedabigrole(moreprominentifmemoryserves)inthe
caseaginstDovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hada
fallingoutoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,butlaterFSKN
onlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)and
probablyKumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadin
the(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.Dovgiythen
turnedtoKhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmade
himtrumpupchargesagstthetwoprominentvictimsofthe
silovikiwarBulbovandStorchak.
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):the
FSBsDirectorateMarrestedKalashovdaysago..and
Maksimovonceworkedthereaswellaccordingtothenewsru
storyonthislatestdevelopment.
OnJul19,2016,at2:17PM,eugeneRumer
<rumereugene@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-
zaderzhaniya-trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-stala-
versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-banditam.html
Senttime: 07/24/201610:44:13AM
FW:[ASUNDAY'LookingintheMirrorandHeadingfortheConfessional'MOMENT][PB]TheWestCutsandRunsonRU'RopedDopers'.
Subject:
[MB]Fwd:Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing[Problem:AuthorIsNotMuchBetter].[BC]ACAFamilyof'bearersofba...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,July24,201610:17AM
Subject:Fwd:[ASUNDAY'LookingintheMirrorandHeadingfortheConfessional'MOMENT][PB]TheWestCutsandRunsonRU
'RopedDopers'.[MB]Fwd:Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing[Problem:AuthorIsNotMuchBetter].[BC]ACAFamilyof'bearers
ofba...
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Subject:[ASUNDAY'LookingintheMirrorandHeadingfortheConfessional'MOMENT][PB]TheWestCutsandRunson
RU'RopedDopers'.[MB]Fwd:Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing[Problem:AuthorIsNotMuchBetter].[BC]ACA
Familyof'bearersofbadnews'onUA
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:RioOlympics2016:RussianotgivenblanketGamesbanbyIOC-BBCSport
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
SURPRISE,SURPRISE!RussiancashtrumpsIOCeffortstorunacleanOlympics.Drugdealersrejoice.Yourbusinessis
safe.Maseratidealersgetreadyforarushoncashsales.TiffanystocksuponDflawlessbrilliantcuts.PutinprovestheGolden
Rule--"HeWhoHasTheGoldMakesTheRules".Sports,Wars,Nations,NazisorCasinoBuilders--Nothingmatterswhen
CashisKing!Don'tbotherstayingtuned--it'sthesameoldre-runs.NoJesseOwensatthesegames.The3leggedmarathoner
fromSiberiaisthehandsdownfavorite.QuestioningRussia'sbeardedfemaleshotputterwillonlyraisetheireofgendersensitive
watchdogs.
Ifthe"West"can'tevenkeeptheOlympicGamesclean,ithasnostandingtomakeanti-corruptiondemandsofanyoneanywhere.
It'sthatsimple.It'stheIOCthatstandsdisgracedbythisdopingscandalanditsfailureofcouragetodealwithithonestlyand
fairly.Russiaisnottoblamehere--itsimplystayedtruetoitscorruptgenome.Snakesbite,Russianscorrupt.It'swhattheydo,
sowecan'texpectthemtobehaveotherwise.However,theIOC'sfailuretomeetthechallengespeaksshamefullytoitsown
endemiccorruption.Shiftingresponsibilitytoindividualsportsorganizationsdilutesthefocusontheproblemandallowslower
levelcorruptiontosortitselfbelowtheintenseradarofthepress.GloryHolesTrumpSpotlight.That'sexactlywhatthisdecision
isintendedtodo.
AresoundingHaynba!
http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/36878983
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jul23,2016at6:57PM
Subject:Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing[ED:Problemis.theauthorisnotmuchbetter]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,RoxyWacyk<roxy.wacyk@gmail.com>
[ED:YoursTrulyfindsforallthatthearticlebelowrevealsaboutabromancebetweenTHEDONALDAND
VLADTHEBAD.thefollowingpassagefromtheauthoroftheitemevenmoretroubling!!Thewordsgoalongway
inconfirmingwhattheglobal'Hromada'haslongsuspected:theweakknee-edintheWesthavelongbeenina'reset'
modewithRUsilenceovertherapeofGeorgiain2008,bothonthebattlefieldandatthediplomatictable,should
havebeenaclearsignalinthatregard!!READANDWEEP:
"LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSeffortstoextendsecurityguaranteesto
countrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'nearabroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussian
interactionswithnewstateswhichforcenturieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.
[ED:ShouldonethenassumethattheBudapestMemorandumwasonebiglie?]Thisisn'tamatterof
indifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuch
policies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountriesarenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeenmade
whichabsolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitmentshavenotbeen
made.[ED:Inaword.let's,byallmeans,throwUkraine,Georgia,Moldovaunderthebusperhaps
'neutral'Finlandshouldworryaswell!!]MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothisquestion
orthesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia."[ED:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing
CBS
JohnMarshall
OverthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromancebetweenDonaldTrumpand
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,butrelatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-be
emulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocraticandilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ataminimum,
TrumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoneyfrompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisis
matchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnesstoRussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeintoconflictwithUS
policieswhichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalsosomethingbetweenanon-trivial
andasubstantialamountofevidencesuggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportofTrumporanon-tacitalliance
betweenthetwomen.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSeffortstoextendsecurityguaranteesto
countrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'nearabroad'orextendsuchguaranteesorpoliceRussian
interactionswithnewstateswhichforcenturieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.Thisisn'ta
matterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcostsof
suchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountriesarenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeen
madewhichabsolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitmentshavenotbeenmade.
MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothisquestionorthesepolicyquestionsassomeonelookingfor
confrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump'scoffersandheisconspicuously
solicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
I'lllistoffsomefacts.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrowndramaticallyoverthelastyear,from
$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustoneyearwhilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphasbeen
blackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostofwhichhasovertheyearsbecome
increasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsandsub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromThe
WashingtonPostwithonemorselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,TrumpandhisfamilymembershavemadenumeroustripstoMoscowinsearchof
businessopportunities,andtheyhavereliedonRussianinvestorstobuytheirpropertiesaroundthe
world.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotofourassets,Trumpsson,Donald
Jr.,toldarealestateconferencein2008,accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.WeseealotofmoneypouringinfromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneofTrump'slargestrecentendeavors.The
projectwasthehitwithaseriesoflawsuitsinresponsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsby
makingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhoweverwasnews
aboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaandKazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojectshasfocusedon
thepresenceofatwiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminalunderworld.But
that'snotthemostsalientpartofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoandthreeotherBayrockprojectsbyan
IcelandicfirmpreferredbywealthyRussiansinfavorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,accordingtoa
lawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformerexecutives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,was
identifiedinaBayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwithAlexanderMashkevich,
abillionaireoncechargedinacorruptioncaseinvolvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseeking
businessinKazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcashfromaccountsinKazakhstan
andRussia."
Soundscompletelylegit.
Readbotharticles:AfterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeagoTrumphashadanincreasingly
difficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornewinvestments.AsInotedabove,Trumphasbeenblackballedbyall
majorUSbankswiththeexceptionofDeutschbank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajorUSpresence.He
hassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyrelianceoncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrump
organizationisreceivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoanddependenceonRussiancapitalaligned
withPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscoreathome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctionsascampaignmanagerandtop
advisor.ManafortspentmostofthelastdecadeastopcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorforViktor
Yanukovych,thePro-RussianUkrainianPrimeMinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-going
crisisandproxywarinUkraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutinally.ManafortisrunningTrump's
campaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,amanwhoseentireprofessionalcareerhas
revolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaandwhohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.If
you'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledupintoasingle
companyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbythePresidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.That
isGazprom'sroleintheRussiapoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationtosaythatyoucannotbe
involvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeenwithoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin's
policies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutintoputPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolledmediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoer
explainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutinhassoughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,
oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsofmoney.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backedpoliciesin
othersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWesternalignedstates.Ofcourse,Trumphasrepeatedlypraised
Putin,notonlyintheabstractbutoftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhichhasmost
souredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopmentsthattippedmefromseeingallthisas
justapartofTrump'slargershadinesstosomethingmorespecificandominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutin
andTrump.AsTPM'sTierneySneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduringdynamicsofGOP
conventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)ismoremainstreamnomineesbattlingactivistsoverthe
partyplatform,withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideologicalboxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmost
orallofthoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrumpconventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotally
indifferenttotheplatform.Sopartyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.Not
withTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withonebigexception:Trump'steammobilizedthe
nominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformontheassistanceto
UkraineagainstRussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit'snotworthmuch)Iam
quiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.Butthe
singlemindednessofthisfocusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-
speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcanjustaseasilybeexplainedby
havingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyearsworkinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingand
agenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetotheplatformand
willingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,histeamzeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexert
maximumforceanditjusthappenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUSpolicy.
AddtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywithPutin'spositionsbutthoseinwhich
Putinismostintenselyinterested.AsidefromUkraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnot
cometothedefenseofNATOmemberstatesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerofothermysteries.Butthosepointsare
highlyspeculative,somevergingonconspiratorialintheirthinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocuson
unimpeachable,undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkandhighlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajorAmericancorporationandthere
wasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump'sdirection,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicy
agenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinisnottheCEOofan
Americancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeignstate,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardsthe
UnitedStatesandasubstantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolvedinfindingout'what'sgoingon'as
Trumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantialevidenceforafinancial
relationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawnoadverse
conclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavilyleveragedandhasaheavyrelianceoncapitalinfusionsfromoligarchs
andothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynotsomethingthatcanbewavedofforignored.
From:BohdanCherniawski<bohdan.rn@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jul23,2016at9:25PM
Subject:Dyernews.[ED:BackgroundonEvanDyer..AuthoroftheRecentAntiPoroshenko-Groysmanitemfor
CanadianBroadcasting]
To:wderzko@pathcom.com
Cc:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
HelloWalter,
EvanDyeristhesonofGynneDyer.Evanis40y/oandhasatwinbrotherOwen.HehasbeenworklingasaJournalistforthelast
15years.WorksforCBC.
Hisrecentcorruptionarticleorattemptstoframetheinvasionasacivilwararequiteirritating.
Rememberhisfather,GwynneDyers:whatifUkrainedidnotexistarticleorthatnonsensehepublishedwiththedontbelieve
thehypearticle.
If/heisanythinglikehisfatherthenwecanexpectmoreanti-Ukrainianrhetoric.
Bohdan
Senttime: 07/24/201601:26:43PM
FW:[SHOCKINGSIMPLYSHOCKINGARRESTTHEUSUALSUSPECTS!!]Fwd:ClintoncampaignblamesRussiaforleakedDNCemails
Subject: aboutSandersUK'sJeanetteK:IhaveracedmanyRussiansand[guesswhat]...[PLUS:PLEASANTSURPRISE]Twoaccuratestoriesabout
U...

Sent:Sunday,July24,201611:34AM
Subject:Fwd:[SHOCKINGSIMPLYSHOCKINGARRESTTHEUSUALSUSPECTS!!]Fwd:ClintoncampaignblamesRussiaforleaked
DNCemailsaboutSandersUK'sJeanetteK:IhaveracedmanyRussiansand[guesswhat]...[PLUS:PLEASANTSURPRISE]Two
accuratestoriesaboutU...
Subject:[SHOCKINGSIMPLYSHOCKINGARRESTTHEUSUALSUSPECTS!!]Fwd:Clintoncampaignblames
RussiaforleakedDNCemailsaboutSandersUK'sJeanetteK:IhaveracedmanyRussiansand[guesswhat]...[PLUS:
PLEASANTSURPRISE]TwoaccuratestoriesaboutUkraine[WarontheEasternFrontUS-UASeaBreezeExercises]
From:VRT
Subject:ClintoncampaignblamesRussiaforleakedDNCemailsaboutSanders[ED:MightWikileaksreallyleak
somethingfromtheRussians????NoWay!!C'ris..willbeatificationprocessesforAssangeandSnowdenbeputon
hold??Jeez.Whatistheworldcomingto??]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/24/clinton-campaign-blames-russia-wikileaks-sanders-dnc-emails
Clinton campaign blames Russia for leaked DNC emails about

Sanders
Experts are telling us that Russian state actors hacked DNC and stole emails
Senator finds emails outrageous, but saves criticism for DNC chair and Trump
Democratic convention: fight for Americas soul moves to Philadelphia
Obama: Trumps Nato comments reveal lack of preparedness on foreign policy
Hillary Clintons campaign has accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 presidential election, saying its hackers
stole Democratic National Committee (DNC) emails and released them to foment disunity in the party and aid
Donald Trump.
Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said on Sunday that experts are telling us that Russian state actors
broke into the DNC, stole these emails, [and are] releasing these emails for the purpose of helping Donald
Trump.
I dont think its coincidental that these emails are being released on the eve of our convention here, he told
CNNs State of the Union, alluding to the partys four-day exercise in unification which is set to take place this
week in Philadelphia.
This isnt my assertion, Mook said. This is what experts are telling us.
In a statement, the Clinton campaign repeated the accusation: This is further evidence the Russian
government is trying to influence the outcome of the election.
Emails released by Wikileaks on Friday showed members of the DNC actively trading ideas for how to
undercut the campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders, who proved a resilient adversary to Clinton in the
Democratic primary. In one email, a staffer suggested the DNC spread a negative article about Sanders
supporters in another the DNCs chief financial officer suggested that questions about Sanders faith could
undermine his candidacy.
I think I read he is an atheist, the staffer wrote. This could make several points difference with my peeps.
My Southern Baptist peeps would draw a big difference between a Jew and an atheist.
Wikileaks, which did not disclose how it acquired the emails, has promised more releases. Earlier this year the
DNC and an independent cybersecurity firm said the partys email system had been breached by Russian
hackers, though a hacker by the moniker Guccifer 2.0 has also claimed to have stolen emails.
In June Florida congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the DNC chair, said the breach was a serious
incident and that the cybersecurity firm had moved as quickly as possible to kick out the intruders and
secure our network.
Late on Saturday, the DNC announced that Wasserman Schultz had been removed from the convention
program, according to CNN.
The DNCs chief financial officer, Brad Marshall, apologized on Saturday for his remarks in the released
emails, writing on Facebook: I deeply regret that my insensitive, emotional emails would cause embarrassment
to the DNC, the chairwoman, and all of the staffers who worked hard to make the primary a fair and open
process.
Also speaking to CNN on Sunday, Sanders said he found the emails outrageous, but said they were not a
great shock to me.
He said: I mean, theres no question to my mind, no question to any objective observers mind, the DNC was
supporting Hillary Clinton and Im not shocked by this.
Sanders also repeated a call he made months ago, in the wake of a brief lawsuit over data access and
questions of bias. I think she should resign, period, he told ABC.
I dont think she is qualified to be the chair of the DNC, he said, not just because of these emails, which
revealed the prejudice of the DNC, but also because we need a party that reaches out to working people and
young people. And I dont think her leadership style does that.
But the senator, who endorsed Clinton last month, declined to turn any anger towards her, saving it for Trump.
Sanders said he was proud of the concessions his campaign had won from Clinton on the Democratic
platform, and praised her vice-presidential pick, Tim Kaine, as an extremely bright guy, an extremely nice
guy.
What is most important is defeating the worst candidate for president that I have seen in my lifetime, he said.
I cant speak for 13 million people but I think most of my supporters understand Trump has got to be
defeated, we need to elect as many progressives as possible.
Sanders supporters represent a key voting bloc for Clinton, whose support has declined in recent polling. But
many of his supporters have expressed distrust of Clinton, and could elect to vote for a third-party candidate,
such as the Green partys Jill Stein.
The senator will speak at the convention on Monday night, and his team released a preview that said he would
not only attack Trump but speak about the future of the political revolution that he promised on the
campaign trail. Our campaign was about revitalizing American democracy, I want to see that incorporated into
the Democratic platform.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has claimed Russia does not meddle in other countries domestic affairs,
despite overwhelming evidence and the Kremlins admission that it has helped rebels in eastern Ukraine. Putin
insisted that he can work with Clinton or Trump. Russian, Chinese and American intelligence agencies
frequently blame each other for hacking attacks as part and parcel of their status as competing nations, though
the substance of those hacks are rarely dumped into the public domain.
Trumps campaign has indirectly fueled speculation that the Kremlin would prefer the businessman to Clinton
as the next president. His campaign stripped hawkish language of the Republican partys official stance toward
Russia, removing a proposal to give weapons to Ukraine in its continuing struggle with pro-Russia separatists.
The head of Trumps campaign, Paul Manafort, was formerly on the payroll of Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych, who was ousted twice for his attempts to draw the country closer to the Kremlin.
Trump has suggested he would like to reconcile with Putin. Last week he said that as president he would not
honor treaties and defend Nato allies from Russia unless they had paid the US.
At rallies, he has repeatedly asked: Wouldnt it be nice if we could get along with Russia?
On Sunday, the Trump campaign rejected Mooks allegations, Manafort telling ABCs This Week they were
absurd and pure obfuscation on the part of the Clinton campaign.
What those emails show is that it was a clearly rigged system, and that Bernie Sanders never had a chance,
he said.
His son, Donald Trump Jr, appeared on CNNs State of the Union. They should be ashamed of themselves,
he said of the Clinton campaign. If we did that if my father did that, theyd have people calling for the
electric chair. It just goes to show you their exact moral compass. Theyll say anything to win this.
Trump himself used Twitter to pass comment, saying: Sorry folks, but Bernie Sanders is exhausted, just cant
go on any longer. He is trying to dismiss the new emails and DNC disrespect. Sad!
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Subject:JeanetteKwakye:IhaveracedmanyRussians,andwelcometheRiodopingban[ED:Oh!!No!!?!!Notthe
RUracers!!Coulditbe???JosefJosefovich..sayitain'tso!!!!]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/22/ban-russian-atheletes-rio-olympics
IhaveracedmanyRussians,andwelcometheRio
dopingban
JeanetteKwakye
Idontfeelsorryforthe68athleteswhoappealedagainsttheIAAFbanfromtheRioOlympicsIpityallthose
competitorswhowerecheatedoutofsuccess
Thedecisionbythecourtofarbitrationforsport(CAS)toupholdthebanonRussianathletes
attheRioOlympicscouldnothavecomeatabettertime.Thegamesarejusttwoweeks
away,andthebrutalityofthedecisionpalesincomparisonwiththepainfeltbythemany
athleteswhohavelostoutbecauseofdoping.
Idonotpitythe68Russianathleteswhoputtheappealin.Ipitytheathleteswhowere
cheatedoutofthesuccesstheydeserved,theathleteswholosttheirmomentonthepodium
aswellasthefinancialrewards,andhavesufferedfromthecontinualself-doubtthatthey
justwerentgoodenough.
Manyontheinternationalcircuitwillnotbesurprisedbyrecentfindingsrelatingtodoping
althoughtheymaybestaggeredbythescopeoftheprogramme.Ispentmycareersecond-
guessingmycompetitors,andsuppressingmyinstinctivedoubtsabouttheirnaturalabilities.
Thisbanisawelcomestepintherightdirection.
IracedmanyRussiansduringmycareer,onethingthatalwaysstuckoutformewasthehigh
turnoverofsprinters.Irarelyracedthesamegirlmorethanonceaseason.The4x100mteam
thatwoninBeijinghashadoneofitssprintersnamedinthereport.Iwaspartofthatrace,
andwillalwayswonderwhatcouldvebeen.
TheRussianathletesseemeddispensable,almostasiftherewasanotherathletereadyto
comeofftheproductionlineandreplacethemiftheydidntdothejobrequiredofthem.It
wasthatcontrollinganddismissiveelementoftheirgoverningbodythatmademethinkthat
dutyofcaretowardsathleteswaslowdownontheagenda.
Butthisisntyourstandarddopingscandal.Thistime,itfeelsdifferent.Acultureofcheating
hasbeenexposedthatrunsdeepwithinRussiansportlayersofdeceptionthatitsgoverning
bodiesweredesperatetokeepquietabout.Thereportsthathavecomeoutinthelasteight
monthsreadlikemoviescripts,withmissingurinesamples,lengthystatementsanda
whistleblowermarriedtoadopingofficialwhohasnowbeenallowedtocompeteundera
neutralflag.
TheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF)president,LordCoe,hassaid:
Itisourfederationsinstinctivedesiretoinclude,notexclude.Thatsentimentisromantic
notrealistic.Thesportneedstochange,anddecisionslikethisneedtobethecatalyst.
Advertisement
AfewhavepointedouthowunfairitisforthecleanRussianathleteswhowillnotbeallowed
tocompete.AndtheRussiansthemselveshavenotheldbackabouthowtheyfeel.The
OlympicpolevaultingchampionYelenaIsinbaeva,hastweetedheroutrage,callingtheban
thefuneralofathletics.
Theyshouldcarryontweetingtheiranger,infactevencreateahashtagbutdirectit
towardstheirgoverningbodies,nottheathleteswhocametocompeteonalevelplaying
field,orthefanswhohavecometowatch.BecauseitistheRussiangoverningbodieswho
haveletthemdown.Anditisthegoverningbodieswhoshouldexplainwhy55oftheir
athletesarecurrentlyontheIAAFbannedlist:threetimesmorethananyothernation.
IhavenoproblemwiththeIAAFofferingcleanathletesthechancetocompeteunderthe
Olympicflagasneutralsbutonlyiftheycanprovetheyarenotpartofthesystematic
dopingintheircountry.Sofar,80Russianathletesbelievethattheycanonlytwohavebeen
cleared.
Wehavealwaysknownitistheresponsibilityofathletestobeaccountableforwhatgoesinto
theirbodies.Fromcoughmedicinestoproteinshakes,IhadtoensurethatwhateverIwas
usingtohelpwithmytrainingwasnotlistedasprohibited.However,withdopingonthisscale
inRussia,manyoftheathletesimplicatedmaynothaveknownwhattheyweretaking,as
theyareworkingontheinstructionofcoachesandofficials.YuliyaStepanova,oneofthe
whistleblowers,said:Thecoacheschoseagirl,fedherpillsandthenshedbeoff.Why
didnttheseathletesaskquestions?
Thisisnoreasonforsympathy.ItgivesmemorereasontobelievetheInternationalOlympic
Committee(IOC)shouldfollowuptheCASrulingwithacompletebanacrossallsports.That
wouldbethestrongestmessagetheycouldsendoutagainstdoping.Thisscandalneedsto
betheturningpointfortheIOC,andlaythefoundationforfuturegenerationswhowatchand
competeattheOlympics,tohavetrustintheperformancestheywitness.
From:WD/Alt
Subject:[ED:PLEASANTSURPRISE]TwoaccuratestoriesaboutUkraine[WarontheEasternFrontUS-UASea
BreezeExercises]
CBS/APJuly24,2016,9:22AM
UkraineconflictwithRussian-
backedrebelsgetsdeadlier
14Photos
AUkrainianForcessoldierfiresaheavymachinegunduringabattlewithpro-RussianseparatistsatAvdeyevka,intheDonetskregionof
UkraineonJune25,2016.
ANATOLIISTEPANOV/AFP/GETTYIMAGES
9Comments
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MOSCOW-AspokesmanforUkraine'smilitaryoperationagainstseparatistrebelsinthecountry'seast
sayssixsoldiershavebeenkilledoverthepastday.
ThestatementbyOleksanderMotuzyanikonSundaycomesamidincreasingconcernaboutarecent
escalationinfightingbetweenUkrainianforcesandRussia-backedrebels.OnTuesday,Ukraine
reportedsevenofitssoldiershadbeenkilled.
TheDonetskPeople'sRepublic,oneoftwoself-proclaimedseparatistrepublicsintheeast,claimed
SundaythatUkrainianforceshadshelledpositionstheremorethan600timesinthepastday,the
RussiannewsagencyTassreported.
TheUnitedNationssaysmorethan9,400peoplehavebeenkilledsincetheconflictbrokeoutinApril
2014.
ProminentjournalistPavelSheremet,whodiedwhenhiscarwasbombedinUkraine,wasburied
SundayinhishometownofMinsk,Belarus.
Sheremet,whooncewasimprisonedinBelarus,whereindependentmediaareunderconsistent
pressurefromtheauthoritariangovernment,hadmovedtoUkrainetwoyearsagoafterseveralyearsin
Russia,seeingUkraineashavingamorefreemediaenvironment.
HeworkedforthenewswebsiteUkrainskaPravda,whichisnotedforinvestigativework,andremained
editorofanewswebsiteinBelarus.
AcarhewasdrivingwasblownupWednesdayintheUkrainiancapitalofKiev.Noarrestshavebeen
made.
AttendingthefuneralwasMustafaNayyem,aUkrainianparliamentmemberandjournalistwhosecall
forralliesinlate2013setoffthemassiveproteststhatledtoUkraine'spro-Moscowpresidentfleeingthe
countryinFebruary2014.
TheblastthatkilledSheremet"wasdirectedagainstthecountrythatwewanttobuild-open,free,
trustworthyandsmiling,"Nayyemsaid.
AUkrainianpilotwhospenttwoyearsinaRussianprisoncreatedacontroversyrecentlybysayingthat
reconciliationistheonlysolutiontotheongoingconflictineasternUkraine.
SpeakingonUkraine'sChannel5,NadiyaSavchenkosaidlateThursdayUkrainians"needtoaskfor
forgiveness"ortherewillneverbepeaceineasternUkraine.
TopUkrainianpoliticalfigureslashedoutFridayatSavchenkoovertheremarks.Savchenkoreturnedto
Ukrainetoahero'swelcomeinMayaspartofaprisonerswapaftershewascapturedbytherebelsin
June2014andputontrialinRussiaforinvolvementinthedeathsoftwojournalists.
2016CBSInteractiveInc.AllRightsReserved.Thismaterialmaynotbepublished,broadcast,rewritten,orredistributed.
TheAssociatedPresscontributedtothisreport.
15:02Jul.24,2016
Ukraine-US'SeaBreeze2016'drillsenteractive
phase
Thisyearmilitaryexercisesaresaidtobethelargestin
Ukraine-US'SeaBreeze2016'drills,2013(UNIANPhoto) thewholerangeofjointUkrainian-U.S.navalmaneuvers
Ukraine-US'SeaBreeze2016'drills,2013(UNIANPhoto)
Odesaheldtheopeningceremonylaunchingtheactive
phaseoftheUkrainian-USmilitaryexercisesSea
Breeze2016'.
49Facebook
Ukraine'sDefenceMinistryreports,theeventwas
Twitter attendedbyUkraine'sDeputyPrimeMinisterfor
EuropeanandEuro-AtlanticIntegrationIvannaKlympush-
0Google+
Tsintsadze,Ukraine'sDefenceMinisterStepanPoltorak,
Moldova'sDefenceMinisterAnatolSalaruand
Sendviaemail Ambassadorsofcountriesparticipatingintheexercise.
SrepanPoltoraksaid,Ukrainianservicemenstarttheir
practicaltrainingalongwiththeirAmericancounterparts
andmilitaryfrompartnerstatesstart.
ReadalsoSeaBreeze2016:Troopspracticelandingoperationandevacuationofwounded
"ThisyearthedrillstakeplaceunderRussia'songoingaggressionagainstUkraine-theaggressionwhichis
aimingtodestructtheexistingsystemofEuropeanandglobalsecurity.Wearewitnessinganunprecedented
growthinsecuritythreatsinEurope.ThatiswhytheSeaBreeze2016'drillsareourjointcontributionto
securingstabilityandsecurityintheBlackSearegion,"saidPoltorak.
608xX
Theministersaid,theoutbreakofterroristattacks,radicalandseparatistmovementsthreatensnotonlyUkraine,
butalsoNATO'smembers,EuropeandtheBlackSearegioninparticular.
"TheWarsawSummitclearlydefinedchallengesrecentlyfacedbyAlliance'smembersandpartners,and
identifiedwaystocounterexistingthreats.Oneofkeyobjectivesistostrengthensecuritymeasuresonthe
southernflankofEurope,andintheBlackSea,"saidPoltorak.
WatchalsoUkrainianandUSsoldierscarryoutmanoeuversinMykolaivregion
Healsostressedtheimportanceofthisyear'smilitaryexercisesintermsofimprovingthecapacityofUkraine's
armyanditsnavalcomponent,deepeninginteroperabilitywiththearmedforcesofUkraine'skeypartnersand
allies.
DefenceMinistersaidthatduringtheactivephase,soldierswillpracticeawiderangeofmarine,coastalandair
operations.HebelievesthatthecurrenttrainingwillalsoenhancethecombatcapabilityofUkraine'sNavy.
608xX
PoltorakexpressedhisgratitudetoUSpartners,anddefenceagenciesofallparticipatingcountriesfortheirhelp
inorganizingthisyear'sexercises.
ReadalsoPoroshenkoapprovesNATOmilitaryexercisesinUkrainenextyear
TheUkrainian-USexercises'SeaBreeze2016'startedon18July.ThedrillstakeplaceinOdesaandMykolaiv
regionsaswellasinthenorth-westernpartoftheBlacksea.
The2016marinecomponentincludes26vessels,20planesandhelicopters,aswellas50militaryequipment
unitsand4,000soldiers.ExceptfortheUkrainianandAmericannavy,representativesof14othercountriesare
takingpartinthemanoeuvers.
TheexerciseswilllastuntilJuly30.
Senttime: 07/25/201601:03:41PM
To: tom.graham83<tom.graham83@gmail.com>
Subject: FrolovonthePutinTrumpControversy
http://slon.ru/posts/71242
NewYork
Times,,
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Senttime: 07/25/201610:33:38AM
FW:APutinSPECIALOPERATIONtoelectTRUMPUSpresident?"AsDemocratsgather,aRussianSUBPLOTraisesintrigue,"nytimes.com,
Subject:
7/24
From:JohnBDunlop
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:APutinSPECIALOPERATIONtoelectTRUMPUSpresident?"AsDemocratsgather,aRussianSUBPLOTraisesintrigue,"
nytimes.com,7/24
And:EliLAKE,CybersecurityexpertssayRussiaHACKEDtheDemocrats,Bloomberg.com/view,7/25
IstheKremlintryingtothrowtheUSpresidentialelectiontoDonaldTrump?Itsoundslikesomething
outofaspynovel.Butmanycybersecurityexperts,aswellastheHillaryClintoncampaign,arenow
sayingtheRussiansareresponsibleforlastmonthshackoftheDemocraticnationalCommittee.
And:WilliamKRISTOL,editor,TheWeeklyStandard,PUTINsPARTY[i.e.,theRepublicans],
http://www.weeklystandard.com/putins_parthy/article/2003473
ThefactisthatTrumpandhistopcampaignaidehavemanytroublingconnectionswithVladimir
PutinsregimeTrumpsbusinessseemstobeheavilydependentonRUSSIANINVESTMENT.Histop
campaignadvisor,PaulManafort,wasanadvisortothePutinbackedstoogeViktorYanukovych,and
hasdeeptiestothePutinapparatPracticallytheonlychangeTrumpscampaignmadetotheGOP
platformwastoweakenthelanguagesupportingUkraine.Wikileaks,whichappearstohave
connectionstoPutinsespionageapparatus,hasreleasedemailsthataredamagingtoHillaryClinton
immediatelybeforetheDemocraticconvention.Trumpheartilyapprovesofthisinterferencebya
foreignpowerinanAmericanelection.Theyapparentlyintendtodothesamewithemailshacked
fromClintonFoundationservers.Finally,Trump.TothecheersoftheKremlinestablishment,hassaid
hewillnotupholdourNATOcommitments.
And:NicoHINES,SpinelessIOCSURRENDERSOlympicintegritytoRussiaforever,
thedailybeast.com,7/25
And:AnnaNEMTSOVA,HowVladimirPutinsspiesHIDathletedoping,thedailybeast.com,7/24
And:RussianairstrikesleaveTHOUSANDSfacingstarvationinrebelheldALEPPO,
theguardian.com,7/23
And:HearingsinthetrialoftheaccusedkillersofBorisNEMTSOVbegantoday:
http://www.newsru.com/russia/25jul2016/safetymeasures_print.html
And:RussiabuildsdrilltowersonUKRAINIANGASFIELDS[theOdesaandHolitsynfields]inBlack
Sea,unian.info,7/25
From: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Senttime: 07/25/201601:16:48PM
Cc: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject: RE:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
HiBob,
TheonekeypointisVVPasaKGBman.Idontthinkthatisparticularlyquestionable.Iwouldciteseveralpiecesofevidence:
Hisworldview,whichseemsveryinformedbythattimeperiod,fromtheimpulsetocontroltohisstatistandderzhavnik
viewstohissuspicionthatNGOsareworkingtoadvanceforeigninterestsandsoon.HisfriendRolduginsaysbasicallythe
samethingin1s tpersonthatVVPsmentalityandworldviewcomesfromtheKGB.Andheishardlytheonlyone.
yousayhewassenttoLeningradratherthanMoscow.Howdoyouknowthis?Firstpersonclaimsotherwisehewasoffered
aplaceinMoscow,anddecidednottotakeit.
yousayheresigned.Thedetailsareverymurky,tomeatleast.Heclaimstohavesentaresignationin1990thatwasnever
received/actedupon,sopresumablyhekeptdrawinghissalary.ThenheclaimsthatinAugust1991,inthemidstofthecoup,
hesignedasecondresignation,andsomehowgotSobchaktocallKryuchkovandgethisresignationpushedthrough.Really?
ItshardtobelievethatKrychukovwouldhavetalkedtoSobchakaboutanythingotherthantheongoingcoupiftheytalkedat
all,ratherthansigningpapersforsomerandomLt.Col.IdontagreewithGessenonmanythings,butIthinkherskepticism
aboutthisstoryiswarranted.ButevenifwedosayheresignedinAugust1991,hebasicallylefttheKGBbecausethecountry
wascollapsing.Itdidntseemlikeanideationalbreakorarenunciationofthatexperienceandprofession,butsomething
forcedbyarevolution.
SoIthinkitisfairtosayheisaKGBman.YouprobablysawtheinterviewwithV.Soloveyafewweeksagowhenhetalked
abouttheconsequencesofhavingwhathecalledprofessionalparanoiacsinchargeofstatepolicy.Thatistoostrong,
obviously,buthewastalkingaboutthesameissueofChekistworldview.
IcanprobablydobetterwithhowIsetuptheKGBstate/militocracyissueItriedtofixitfromthefirstversion,butobviously
didntdoagoodenoughjobofthat.
Brian:
Thepaperproducesarathermixedimpression.Partsofitareverygood,whileotherpartsareratherdiffuse
andattimesrepetitive.Thepaperneedstightening.
Thefirsttwoparagraphscouldbeeliminatedwithoutanyharmtothepaper.Infact,thefirstoneis
questionableandisalmostmythmaking,asharpdeparturefromyourusualhardheadedanalysis.Putinisa
KGBmandoesnotcomportwithsomeoftheknownfactsofhisbiospecifically,hewasntverygood
(beingsenttoLeningradafterE.Germany,ratherthanMoscow,wastantamounttoaninvitationtoretire),
heresigned,andhewasreluctanttoreturntotheFSB.Partsofwhatfollowsconflatetheverythingsyou
seektodebunkinthepaper(KGBvssiloviki).Andevenifitisamilatocracy,itsnotaKGBstate.
The3rdparagraphstartstogetatwhatyouwanttosay.Reactive&dividedlaterfollowedbycautiousand
conservative.Thatsaid,Ithinkallofthesecharacterizationsarearguable.
Yes,theyareprobablyallarguable.Itskindofhardtomakegeneralstatementsaboutfuturebehaviorabsentconcrete
scenariosandcircumstances.Thisisjustmybestguess,basedonpastevidenceandcomparativelessons.Butperhapsyou
wanttobemorespecificaboutthewaysinwhichtheyarearguable?
Page6:theexamplefromtheearlyninetieswouldbeokay,butonlyifyoucancomeupwithmorerecent
examplesofthisdiversity.
Fairpoint.Findingmorerecentexamplesisharder,giventhatthereisnooppositionintheDumaanymore,liketherewasin
the90s.Icanpointtospecificpeople,likeformerKGBgeneralA.P.Kondaurov,butitishardertoday.And,unlikeinthe1990s,
wedonthavegoodsurveysofmilitaryofficers.SoImleftwithanecdotesandexamples.
Oryoucoulddropitalltogethersincethenextparagraphmakesamoreimportantpointandcalltomindthis
gemfromPavlovskiy:
^:-""
^:03.09.2003
^:
""-,
.
.,-.
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,-.,,..
.
...
Page9:thelastsentenceofthefirstfullparagraphreallyneedstobefleshedout,theseguetoClubsare
Trumpisabittoofasthere.Yousaythepowerandmoneyareoffundamentalimportance,butyoudont
saywhy.
Fairenough.
Page13:IwouldntbesocertainthatstatecollapseissounlikelyinRussia.Theregimehasbecomemore
brittlesincePutinreturnedtothepresidency.IwouldalsonotethatFrancedidnthaveaBonapartist
traditionbeforeNapoleoncameontothescene.
Moststatecollapseintheworldtodayhappensbecauseofnationalist/ethnicseparatism.IseenobasisforthatinRussia,with
thepossibleexceptionofafewsmallregionsintheNorthCaucasus.Demographicallyandgeographicallyitshardtoimagine
anunravelingliketheSovietorYugoslavcollapse.
NotsurewhatFranceinthelate18thcenturytellsusabouttheprospectforamilitarycoupinRussia.Eveninplaceslike
Turkey,withapraetorianmilitaryorganizationalculture,andmultiplesuccessfulcoupsinthelast60years,weseehowhard
theycanbetopulloff.Istillthinkthisistheleastlikelyscenarioforsilovikibringingaboutfundamentalpoliticalchangein
Russia.
Page15:NotclearwhyShoyguisoustedfromPutinsinnercircle-hesbeenonmost,ifnotall,ofthe
fishingtrips,forexample.
Yes,Ihedgethismoreinthebook.Somesayheisin,otherssayheisout,ormoreaccuratelywasnevertrulyin(including
Vennediktov).
Also,whenPutincreatedtheSKin2007itwassupposedtobesubordinatetotheGP,hencetheacronym
SKP.Itdidntbecomeindependentuntil2011whenthe2010lawcameintoeffect.
Yes,thanks.
Page16:ThecitationfromthatNovayapieceisaratherexplicitchallengetoyourearlierargumentthat
theresnothingtofearfromthesecuritybloc.
ImnotsureIinterpretthatquotethesamewaythatyoudo.Ishesaying,wecandealwithcrowdseasily?orishesaying,
wedontexpecttohavetodealwithlargecrowdsor,inthesamevein,problemswitheachotheraremuchmorelikely
thanchallengesfromthemasses.
Page17&19:Silovikiinsiderwouldratherthancouldinthescenarioyououtline
here.Ialsothinkyoudrawbetterdistinctionsbetweenregimeand
systemic/fundamentalchange.
DoyoumeanIneedtodrawthisdistinctionbetter?Orthatitisausefuldistinction,andneedstobehighlightedmore?
Ofcourse,thisisyourpaper,Brian,andwearepreparedtoacceptitjustaboutasis.Ithinktheruleisno
morethan20pages.
b
Again,thanksverymuch.Ireallyappreciateyourclosereadingofit.Iprobablyonlyhavetimeforanotherdayonthis,after
gettingbackfromvacation.Toomanyotherthingsarelooming,andIneedtofinishthedamnbook(progresshasbeenmade,
BTW).IwouldnotatallbeoffendedifThePowersThatBedecidethisisntgoodenough,orthatusefulforus,andsayno
thanks.Asyouknow,Iwillgetarevisedversionofthisoutlateratanyrate.
Bestwishes,
Brian
Senttime: 07/25/201601:17:38PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>chrisbort@gmail.comnathanielreynolds<naterey80@gmail.com>DonaldJensen
BCc:
<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: FrolovDoesn'tBuytheTrumpasPutinAgentStuff(atall),buttheDNCHackisAnotherMatter
NewYork
Times,,
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.:,
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From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/23/201608:53:59AM
To: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Cc: chrisbort@gmail.com
Subject: Re:--
SentfrommyiPad
Thanks,Bob.I'llbehonest,myheadisspinningfromallofthis--nofictionwritercouldhave
madeitup.
Gene:mymemorywashalfwrong.AMaksimenkowasinfactDovgiysSKpersecutor,butitwasVladimir,not
theMikhailbelow.BastrykindismissedVladimirin2009andhehadworkedatFSBdirectorateM.Mikhailmay
havetoo.:(
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.AsidefromNikandrov
(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(moreprominentifmemory
serves)inthecaseaginstDovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hadafalling
outoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,butlaterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanish
indictmentlastyear)andprobablyKumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowasthelead
inthe(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.DovgiythenturnedtoKhinshteyn
andallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpupchargesagstthetwoprominent
victimsofthesilovikiwarBulbovandStorchak.
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBsDirectorateM
arrestedKalashovdaysago..andMaksimovonceworkedthereaswellaccording
tothenewsrustoryonthislatestdevelopment.
OnJul19,2016,at2:17PM,eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-zaderzhaniya-trekh-
rukovoditeley-skr-stala-versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-banditam.html
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/23/201608:27:55AM
Subject: Re:--
Thanks,Bob.I'llbehonest,myheadisspinningfromallofthis--nofictionwritercouldhavemadeitup.
Gene:mymemorywashalfwrong.AMaksimenkowasinfactDovgiysSKpersecutor,butitwasVladimir,nottheMikhail
below.BastrykindismissedVladimirin2009andhehadworkedatFSBdirectorateM.Mikhailmayhavetoo.:(
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.AsidefromNikandrov(notedin
thestory)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(moreprominentifmemoryserves)inthecase
aginstDovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolayAulov(then
MVD,butlaterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)andprobably
Kumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe(trumpedup)briberycaseagainst
Dovgiy.DovgiythenturnedtoKhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpup
chargesagstthetwoprominentvictimsofthesilovikiwarBulbovandStorchak.
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBsDirectorateMarrestedKalashov
daysago..andMaksimovonceworkedthereaswellaccordingtothenewsrustoryonthis
latestdevelopment.
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-zaderzhaniya-trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-
stala-versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-banditam.html
Senttime: 07/23/201607:19:33AM
To: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject: SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Brian:
Thepaperproducesarathermixedimpression.Partsofitareverygood,whileotherpartsareratherdiffuse
andattimesrepetitive.Thepaperneedstightening.
Thefirsttwoparagraphscouldbeeliminatedwithoutanyharmtothepaper.Infact,thefirstoneis
questionableandisalmostmythmaking,asharpdeparturefromyourusualhardheadedanalysis.Putinisa
KGBmandoesnotcomportwithsomeoftheknownfactsofhisbiospecifically,hewasntverygood
(beingsenttoLeningradafterE.Germany,ratherthanMoscow,wastantamounttoaninvitationtoretire),
heresigned,andhewasreluctanttoreturntotheFSB.Partsofwhatfollowsconflatetheverythingsyou
seektodebunkinthepaper(KGBvssiloviki).Andevenifitisamilatocracy,itsnotaKGBstate.
The3rdparagraphstartstogetatwhatyouwanttosay.Reactive&dividedlaterfollowedbycautiousand
conservative.Thatsaid,Ithinkallofthesecharacterizationsarearguable.
Page6:theexamplefromtheearlyninetieswouldbeokay,butonlyifyoucancomeupwithmorerecent
examplesofthisdiversity.Oryoucoulddropitalltogethersincethenextparagraphmakesamore
importantpointandcalltomindthisgemfromPavlovskiy:
^:-""
^:03.09.2003
^:
""-,
.
.,-.
,,
,-.,,..
.
...
Page9:thelastsentenceofthefirstfullparagraphreallyneedstobefleshedout,theseguetoClubsare
Trumpisabittoofasthere.Yousaythepowerandmoneyareoffundamentalimportance,butyoudont
saywhy.
Page13:IwouldntbesocertainthatstatecollapseissounlikelyinRussia.Theregimehasbecomemore
brittlesincePutinreturnedtothepresidency.IwouldalsonotethatFrancedidnthaveaBonapartist
traditionbeforeNapoleoncameontothescene.Page15:NotclearwhyShoyguisoustedfromPutins
innercircle-hesbeenonmost,ifnotall,ofthefishingtrips,forexample.Also,whenPutincreatedtheSK
in2007itwassupposedtobesubordinatetotheGP,hencetheacronymSKP.Itdidntbecome
independentuntil2011whenthe2010lawcameintoeffect.
Page16:ThecitationfromthatNovayapieceisaratherexplicitchallengetoyourearlierargumentthat
theresnothingtofearfromthesecuritybloc.
Page17&19:Silovikiinsiderwouldratherthancouldinthescenarioyououtlinehere.Ialsothinkyoudraw
betterdistinctionsbetweenregimeandsystemic/fundamentalchange.
Ofcourse,thisisyourpaper,Brian,andwearepreparedtoacceptitjustaboutasis.Ithinktheruleisno
morethan20pages.
b
Senttime: 07/23/201604:52:38AM
Subject: Re:--
Gene:mymemorywashalfwrong.AMaksimenkowasinfactDovgiysSKpersecutor,butitwasVladimir,nottheMikhail
below.BastrykindismissedVladimirin2009andhehadworkedatFSBdirectorateM.Mikhailmayhavetoo.:(
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.AsidefromNikandrov(notedinthe
story)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(moreprominentifmemoryserves)inthecaseaginst
Dovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,but
laterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)andprobablyKumarin.Atany
rate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.Dovgiythen
turnedtoKhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpupchargesagstthetwo
prominentvictimsofthesilovikiwarBulbovandStorchak.
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBsDirectorateMarrestedKalashov
daysago..andMaksimovonceworkedthereaswellaccordingtothenewsrustoryonthislatest
development.
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-zaderzhaniya-trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-
stala-versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-banditam.html
Senttime: 07/22/201609:02:42AM
Subject: FW:PaulKRUGMAN,"DonaldTRUMP,theSIBERIANCANDIDATE,"op-ed,nytimes.com,7/22
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July22,20169:02AM
Subject:PaulKRUGMAN,"DonaldTRUMP,theSIBERIANCANDIDATE,"op-ed,nytimes.com,7/22
Ifelected,wouldDonaldTrumpbeVladimirPUTINsmanintheWhiteHouse?Thisshouldbea
ludicrous,outrageousquestionButweretalkingaboutaludicrous,outrageouscandidate.Andthe
Trumpcampaignsrecentbehaviorhasquiteafewforeignpolicyexpertswonderingjustwhatkindof
holdMr.PutinhasovertheRepublicannomineeandwhetherthati9nfluencewillcontinueifhewins
IamtalkingaboutindicationsthatMr.Trumpwould,inoffice,actuallyfollowaproPutinforeign
policy,attheexpenseofAmericasalliesandofherownselfinterestWhatwereseeingfromMr.
Trumpandhisassociatesgoesbeyondemulation,andisstartingtolooklikeSUBSERVIENCE.
And:REPUBLICANS[includingSenateMajorityleaderMcCONNELL]ripTrumpoverNATOPLAN,
politico.com,7/22
And:MichaelWEISS,DonaldTRUMPissuckingupandsellingouttoPUTIN:TheDonaldmaybe
talkingtough,buthesonhiskneesinfrontofRussiaifhebetraystheWesternalliance.Andthats
whathesdoing,thedailybeast.com,7/22
And:RussiaBOMBEDaUSbaseinSYRIA,thedailaybeast.com,7/22
And:AwomanappearstohaveplacedtheCARBOMBthatkilledPavelSHEREMET:Sheremetmurder:
newFOOTAGEreleased,themoscowetimes.com,7/22SeegraphicVIDEO
And:THOUSANDSstandinlinetomournslainjournalistPavelSHEREMETinKyiv,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27873620.html
And:Surveyfindsonly18%[ofresidentsoftheDonetskPeoplesRepublic]identifyingwithKremlin
backedDNR,khpg.org,7/22
And:UkrainetroopswarnofthreatofFULLSCALEWAR,unian.info,7/22
AccordingtoUkrainesmilitaryintelligence,theleade3rsofthesocalledDPRLPRterrorist
organizationsurgentlyrecalledallmilitantsfromholidaysandvacationsandbannedthemfrom
leavingtheirbases.
And:UkraineestimatesPOTENTIALLOSSESinfirsttwodaysoffullscalewarwithRussia,unian.info,
7/22
LossesintheeventofafullscalewarwithRussiamayreach10,00012,000peoplewithinthefirst
twodaysofanopenconfrontation
And:Specialreportbytwowomenjournalistsfrombothsidesofthedefactoborderseparating
UkraineandtheDNR:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/73914.html?print=1
And:MoscowofficialsDENYactivistspermissiontorally[againstthecontroversialnewRussiananti
terrorlegislation],rferl.org,7/22
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 07/22/201603:29:13PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: NorthCaucasusWeekly--Volume17,Issue14
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
July22,2016--Volume17,Issue14
INTHISISSUE
*ProtestersstormministrybuildinginAbkhazia
*IngushetiasCossacksgearupformembershipintheTerekCossackForce
*RussianspecialoperationsforcesdestroygroupofrebelsinDagestan
*MoscowcontinuescrackdownonMuslimclerics
*MudslideonGeorgianMilitaryHighwayhaltstransportationtrafficbetweenNorthand
SouthCaucasus
*Kabardino-Balkariaspolicereportedlyoverestimatednumberofmilitantsfromrepublic
fightinginSyria
*ChechenmilitantsinSyriaarelikelytoleavewithoutUmarShishani
*WhydoMuscoviteswanttobeelectedtotheRussianStateDumafromChechnyaand
Dagestan?

**DearJamestownSubscriber:
WehopeyouenjoythiscompendiumofarticlesontheNorthCaucasusandifyoudonotwish
tocontinuereceivingthispublicationpleaseupdateyoursubscriptionstatusontheJamestown
websiteorcontactusdirectlyatpubs@jamestown.org.

***VisittheJamestownwebsiteforNorthCaucasusAnalysis(www.jamestown.org/nc/)

PoliticalTurmoilEruptsinAbkhaziaasMoscowReducesItsFinancialSupport

LateonJuly10,theheadofAbkhaziasCentralElectoralCommission,BatalTabagua,
admittedthatamere0.99percentofregisteredvotershadcastaballotinthereferendumon
holdingearlypresidentialelectionsintherepublic(Gazeta.ru,July10).Thereferendumin
AbkhaziareflectedapoliticalcrisisthathasbeenbrewinginthebreakawayGeorgianrepublic
formonths.Theoppositiondemandedthattheauthoritiespostponethereferendumuntilthe
fall,butAbkhaziasPresidentRaulKhajimbarefused(Gazeta.ru,July10)andtheopposition
boycottedthevote.Theoppositioninitiatedthereferendumonholdingearlypresidential
electionsinAbkhazia,butthencomplainedthattheauthoritiesscheduledtheballottooearly
forthemtoengageinameaningfulpubliccampaign(KavkazskyUzel,July9).

AbkhaziaspoliticalcrisisescalatedonJuly5,whenprotestersstormedtheMinistryof
InteriorbuildinginthecapitalSukhumi,demandingthatInteriorMinisterLeonidDzapshba
resignandthereferendumbepostponed(Lenta.ru,July5).
Aftertheprotestersnearlybrokeintothebuilding,KhajimbapromisedtosuspendDzapshba,
aboutwhomtheoppositionhadseveralcomplaints.Firstofall,Dzapshbawasrecorded
callingonhissubordinatestodoeverythingtheycouldtosabotagethereferendum.Thevoice
recordingwaspostedonAbkhazianwebsites.Second,theMinistryofInteriorpreventedthe
oppositionfromcongregatinginoneofthevenuesinSukhumi,whichpromptedthemtomove
theirmeetingtotheinteriorministrybuilding.Third,Abkhaziasoppositionclaimedthatthe
territoryhadbecomemuchmorecrime-riddenduringDzapshbastenure(Gazeta.ru,July7).
Amtsakhara,anorganizationofveteransofthe19921993Georgian-Abkhazwar,is
reportedlythemaindrivingforcebehindtheprotests.Duringthepreviouspoliticalcrisisin
May2014,Amtsakharasupportedthethen-presidentofAbkhazia,AlexanderAnkvab.
However,Ankvablostthestandoffandsteppeddown.Soonafterwards,Khajimbawas
electedpresident.KhajimbawasemployedbytheKGBduringtheSovietperiodandlikely
retainedastrongconnectiontotheRussiansecurityservices.Soitisnotsurprisingthat
MoscowrepeatedlysupportedKhajimbascandidacyinAbkhaziaspresidentialcontests,
whichheinvariablylostuntil2014.Now,itappearsthatMoscowssupportforAbkhaziaand
itsregimehasfalteredduetoRussiaseconomiccrisis.Theeconomichardshipthatmany
AbkhazianfamiliesareexperiencinghasemboldenedtheAbkhazianoppositionandresultedin
publicprotests.Moscowchoseastrategyofmakingpromisesandconsistentlyfailingtofulfill
them.TheKremlinhaspromisedtoannuallyinvestinAbkhaziatheequivalentofabout$100
million,whichisasubstantialamountofmoneyforanimpoverishedrepublicwithanestimated
250,000inhabitants.Eachyear,however,thepromisedinvestmenthasbeensignificantly
slashedbytheKremlin(KavkazskayaPolitika,April1).
MoscowofficiallyrecognizedAbkhaziaandSouthOssetiaasindependentstatesinAugust
2008,afterabriefmilitaryconflictbetweenRussiaandGeorgia.Noothersignificant
internationalplayersrecognizedthetwobreakawayGeorgianregions,whichhaveremained
entirelydependentonfinancialandmilitarysupportfromRussia.
Khajimbaapparentlycametopowerpromisingthat,asMoscowsman,hewouldbeable
tosecuresignificantRussianinvestment.However,afterhissurpriseascenttopowerin2014,
Khajimbafailedtodeliver,duetoMoscowsinabilitytodeliveronitspromises.Besidesthe
economiccrisis,WesternsanctionsandforeignpolicygambleshavedrainedRussiasbudget.
Meanwhile,theKremlinapparentlyhasnotbeenentirelysatisfiedwithKhajimbas
performanceasAbkhaziasleader.Forexample,theKhajimbagovernmentrefusedtoremove
restrictionsonnon-Abkhaziancitizenswhowanttobuyrealestate,whichapparentlyputoff
manyindividualsamongtheRussianelites.
Daysafterthestormingoftheinteriorministrybuilding,Moscowhurriedlyallocatedthe
equivalentof$15millionforAbkhazia,indicatingthatRussiastillwantstopropupthe
Khajimbaregimeandhastheresourcestodoso(Gazeta.ru,July8).However,Abkhazias
economymaystillbebadlyhitduetothepoliticalinstabilitythere.Thebreakawayregionis
highlydependentontourismrevenuesthatcomeprimarilyfromRussiantourists.Followingthe
riotsintherepubliconJuly5,foreigntouristsreportedlystartedleaving(Gazeta.ru,July6).At
thesametime,Abkhaziasoppositionhasthreatenedtodisregardthetouristseasonand
continueitsprotestsifKhajimbadoesnotlistentothem(Gazeta.ru,July7).
Long-timeregionalexpertslikeAntonKrivenyuksaythatthedevelopmentsinAbkhaziaare
fundamentallydrivenbythedeepeningeconomicandmanagementcrisis.Abkhaziais
becomingincreasinglyfragmented,anditscitizenshavelittletonohopethattherepublican
economywillimproveintheforeseeablefuture(KavkazskayaPolitika,June19).

AbkhaziasrelativepoliticalstabilityhasdependedtoagreatextentonMoscowsfinancial
support.However,MoscowsabilitytofundAbkhaziaisevidentlywaning,whichiscreating
politicaltensionsintherepublic.WhileRussiastillseemstobeinapositiontocontinuefunding
Abkhazia,itsfinancialresourcesforthenearfuturewillremaintightandmaycontinueto
plummet.ThisdevelopmentlikelyportendsthatthepoliticalturmoilintheGeorgian
breakawayrepublicwillalsocontinue,ifnotworseninthemonthsahead.
--ValeryDzutsati
CossacksandMoscowStillDisagreeOverWhatItMeanstoBeaCossack
CossacksinIngushetiahaveappealedtotheTerekCossackForcetoacceptthemas
members.Thelatterisexpectedtomakeitsdecisionbythisfall.TheCossacksofIngushetia
haveaskedtobecomemembersoftheTerekCossackforceforyears,sofarunsuccessfully.
AccordingtoCossacktraditions,CossacksaresupposedtobelongtotheRussianOrthodox
ChurchandtheIngush,asMuslims,wererejected.In2013,VasilySvetlichnybecamethe
headofthenewlyestablishedSunzhaCossackDistrictinIngushetia.AccordingtoSvetlichny,
theSunzhaCossackDistricthasonlyabout300members,anditssmallsizedisqualifiesit
frombecominganofficiallyregisteredCossackorganization,accordingtoexistingRussian
laws(KavkazskayaPolitika,July5).However,amuchlargerCossackorganizationin
IngushetiamadeupofethnicIngushmaybebehindSvetlichny.Earlier,onFebruary3,
CossacksfromStavropolmetIngushetiasgovernor,Yunus-BekYevkurov,andofferedto
cooperatewiththeIngushCossacks,signalingthatMuslimCossacksmaybeacceptableto
some(Nazaccent.ru,February4).
TheUnionofCossackGroupsoftheRepublicofIngushetia,anethnic-IngushCossack
organization,wasfoundedbackin1994.Eversince,theyhavetriedtogainlegitimacyand
governmentsupport,experiencingsomesuccessesandfailures.In1995,thegovernment
suspendedtheactivitiesoftheIngushCossackorganization.In1996,theauthoritiesexcluded
theIngushCossackorganizationfromthegovernmentslistofregisteredorganizations.Butin
1998,afteralongbureaucraticbattle,thegovernmentofficiallyregisteredtheIngushCossack
organization.Inthefollowingyears,twomainIngushCossackorganizationsformedthe
RegionalDirectorateoftheFederationoftheCossackUnions,undertheleadershipof
MagomedBatyrov,andtheDistrictCossackSocietyoftheTerekCossackForce,underthe
leadershipofMuhammadTsurov.Jointly,thetwoIngushCossackorganizationshadan
estimated7,000members,includingabout200ethnicSlavs.PatriarchKirillmadeit
abundantlyclearthatallCossacksshouldbelongtotheRussianOrthodoxChurch.However,
atthesametime,theRussianOrthodoxChurchreportedlypushedtheCossackstoaccept
IngushCossacksastheirown.Moreover,theRussianlawOntheRussianCossacks
GovernmentServiceclearlystatesthatanycitizenofRussiaaged18to60maybecomea
memberofaCossacksocietyirrespectiveoftheirethnicityorreligiousaffiliation.Hence,the
doorsforethnicIngushtobecomemembersofthestate-sponsoredCossackforceseemto
beopen(Kazak-center.ru,December17,2013).
IngushCossacksareseekingtoprovethattheIngushhistoricallyservedintheCossack
forceswhilealsoretainingtheirreligion.However,theprospectofacceptingMuslimmembers
intoaCossackorganizationdismayedtheCossacks,whocontinuedtoinsistthatallCossacks
shouldbeRussianOrthodoxChristians.ThemotivationoftheIngushtobecomeCossacksis
quitesimple:ThegovernmentdelegatesborderprotectiontoCossackforcesalongwitha
substantialpackageofmaterialprivileges,suchaslandrightsandsalaries(Kazak-center.ru,
October29,2013).AlthoughCossackhopesforreceivinglargegovernmentconcessions
haverepeatedlybeendashed,Cossacksinsomeareasstillhavemanagedtosecureland
rights(Izvestia,June10,2013).
TheRussiangovernmentsmotivationtoturnethnicIngushintoCossacksisunclear.One
possiblereasonappearstobeMoscowshopethatitwouldpavethewayforthereturnof
ethnicRussianstoIngushetia.Currently,ethnicRussianscompriselessthanonepercentofthe
populationofIngushetia.CreatingaCossackforceinIngushetia,evenifitweredominatedby
ethnicIngush,wouldpotentiallyallowtransfersbetweenvariousCossacksocietiesinthe
NorthCaucasus,whichwouldhelptheRussiangovernmentgraduallywashoutethnic
Ingushfromtheorganization.Thecentralgovernmentsothermotivationmaybetoofferthe
Ingushpeoplethesamecarrotthathasbeenofferedtotheirneighborsandcompetitorsto
thewesttheethnicOssetians.Theso-calledAlanCossackRepublicanDistrictCossack
Society(Terkv.ru,accessedJuly13)inNorthOssetiaboasts12,000members,seven
subdivisions,and44localCossackorganizations.Besidesprestigeandthelegalrighttobear
arms,membershipinagovernment-sponsoredCossackorganizationhasrealmaterial
benefits.OssetianCossacksarerecruitedforborderprotectiontasksandreceivesalariesfor
theirwork(Sevosetia.ru,June14).SincetheIngushandOssetianshavebeenatoddsfora
longtime,especiallysincetheconflictof1992,Moscowmaybeconsideringanoverture
towardtheIngushbyallowingthemtoalsohavetheirownCossackforce.
MoscowincreasinglyregardstheCossacksintheNorthCaucasusasapartofitswider
politicalgameintheregion.MembersoftheCossackforcesareincludedandexcludednot
accordingtosomehistoricalandculturalheritage,butaccordingtopoliticalnecessity.Asa
result,however,themeaningofCossackcultureandCossackidentityisbecomingmorefluid.
SomeCossacksstillseemtoargueinfavorofretainingaCossackidentityseparatefromthe
ethnic-Russianidentityandtheidentitiesofotherethnicgroups.However,manyseemtogo
alongwiththeRussiangovernmentsdecisions,therebyturningCossackidentityintoa
professionratherthanaculturalartifact.
--ValeryDzutsati
RussiasNationalAntiterroristCommitteeReportsSpecialOperationinDagestan
RussiasNationalAntiterroristCommittee(NAK)reportedthatduringaspecialoperationin
DagestansKarabudakhkentdistrictonJuly78,asaresultofoperationalandcombat
activities,theforcesoftheFSB[FederalSecurityService]neutralizedninepeople
(Riadagestan.ru,July8).AccordingtotheNAK,themajorityoftherebelskilledwere
identified.Theauthoritiesprovidedthefollowinglistofthosekilled:28-year-oldMagomed
Tagirov(youngerbrotherofGuseinTagirov),22-year-oldGuseinMagomedov,23-year-old
EfendiMedzhidov,20-year-oldAkhmedIsmailov,36-year-oldRasulKhalilov,and27-year-
oldAkhmedZagirov.Thelistalsoincludedtheamir(head)oftheMakhachkalarebelgroup,
30-year-oldGuseinTagirov,whohadbeenontheRussianfederalwantedlistsince2014.
Thus,theoldestpersoninthisgroupwas36andtheyoungest20,whichisthetypicalage
rangeofrebelsinDagestan(Newsru.com,July8).
TheauthoritiessaidthattheamiroftheMakhachkalagroupwasinvolvedinthemurderofan
administrationchiefinaBuinakskdistrictvillage,alongwitharesidentofthatvillage,andother
terrorism-relatedcrimes.Theauthoritiesalsosaidthatoneservicemandiedandfourwere
woundedduringthespecialoperation.Thespecialoperationwasconductedmainlynearthe
villagesofAgachaulandTalginearMakhachkala.EthnicKumykscomprisethemajorityof
thepopulationinthatpartofDagestan.Accordingtogovernmentsources,GuseinTagirov
earlierledtheso-calledKadargroup.Afterthe amiroftheMakhachkalagroup,Kamil
Magomedov,waskilledinthetownofLeninkentinsuburbanMakhachkala,Tagirovtook
overtheleadershipofthegroupandbroughtwithhimothermilitantsfromtheKadargroup
(Newsru.com,July8).
Followingthespecialoperation,thepolicedetainedtwomeninthevillageofNovyParaulin
DagestansKarabudakhkentdistrictonsuspicionofhelpingthemilitants.Theauthorities
reportedlyfoundammunition,bomb-makingcomponents,andaready-to-useimprovised
explosivedevice(IED)(Kavpolit.com,July8).
Itisunclearhowthepoliceidentifiedthetwosuspects.Themostlikelyexplanationisthatthe
twomensuppliedfoodtotherebelspriortotheMuslimholidayofEidal-Fitr.Thesecurity
serviceshavelongestablishedspecialcontroloversalesoffooditemsinruralareasof
Dagestan.Peoplewhofrequentlybuynonperishablefooditemsquicklybecomeofinterestto
thesecurityservicesbecauseofitsvaluetomilitantfightershidingintheforests.
ThedestroyedgroupwasoneofthoseintheNorthCaucasusthathadpledgedallegianceto
theIslamicState.Accordingtoapolicesource,thenewgroupwasmadeupofmilitantsfrom
theKadargroupwhomovedintoforestedareasnearthecapitaloftherepublicandmembers
oftheKhushetgroupwhorecentlyjoinedtheillegalarmedundergroundmovement.Kadaris
avillageinDagestansBuinakskdistrictofDagestan.KadarhasbeenknownasaSalafist
centersincethemid-1990s(Kommersant,July7).
Alittlemorethansixmonthsago,thepoliceclaimedthegrouphadbeendestroyed,andthat
governmentforceswerehuntingitssurvivingmembers(Ren.tv,December11,2015).
However,thegroupturnedouttobequitecombat-ready.Eventhoughthepolicekillednine
anddetainedtwoothersuspectedmembersoftheMakhachkalarebelgroup,someofits
membersstillmightbehidinginthecity,soitistooearlytospeakofthegroupsfinal
destruction.Whatistrueisthatthegroupexperiencedaserioussetbackandsufferedlarge
losses.However,sincethestartofthesecondRussian-Chechenwarin1999,destroyed
groupshaveagainandagaincontinuedtheiractivities.Thequestionalwayshasbeenhowlong
ittakesthegrouptorecover.Groupsofmilitantsdidnotdisappearonceandforall.Hence,
hastystatementsabouttheendofonegrouporanotherofmilitantsareviewedasbeingoutof
place.
ThekillingofthemembersoftheMakhachkalagroupwasnottheonlyincidentinDagestan.
InDagestansSergokalinskydistrictsouthofMakhachkala,whichispredominantlypopulated
byethnicDargins,unidentifiedindividualskilledtwomennearthevillageofSergokala.Oneof
theslainmenturnedouttobeapoliceofficer(Gazeta.ru,July10).Accordingtolaw
enforcementofficials,theattackerskilledthetwoyoungmen,whowereonapicnic,andstole
theircar.Thetwomenmayhavebeenkilledbecausetheattackersrecognizedoneofthem
wasapoliceofficer.Thepolicesaidthattheattackersmayhavebeenmilitants,butcouldnot
confirmwhethertherewasathirdvictim,whowaskidnapped.
Thatsameday,aschoolprincipalinGubdenwaskilledinhishome,apparentlybyseveral
individuals.UnidentifiedindividualscalledtheschoolprincipalofGubdenout.Afteralengthy
brawl,theattackersstabbedthemantodeathandranaway(Kavtoday.ru,July10).School
principalsinthemountainouspartsoftheNorthCaucasusaremorethansimplyschool
administrators.Theyarealsoamongthemostauthoritativeindividualsinremotevillages.In
manyinstances,schoolprincipalsaretheleadersofthelocalcommunityandactasakindof
counterbalancetotheheadsofthevillageadministrations.Schoolprincipalsoftentestifyas
witnessesfortheprosecutionincourtcasesrelatedtomilitants.Sinceschoolprincipals
cooperatewiththeauthorities,theinsurgentssometimesregardthemasenemies.
RebelsandgovernmentforcesintheNorthCaucasusonceagainhaveexchangedblows.
Whilethelatteraremuchmorerobustthantheformer,itisobviousthatthearmed
undergroundIslamistresistancemovementisstillundergoingleadershipchangesandis
adjustingtothenewregionalrealitiesaftersufferingsomanysetbackstoRussianattacksand
penetrationoftheircellsbytheFSB.Consequently,attacksbyrebels,andoperationsagainst
thembygovernmentforces,willlikelycontinue.
--MairbekVatchagaev

RussianSecurityServicesTargetMuslimCleric
PoliceinMoscowthisweekarrestedthe imamofoneofthecitysmosques,Makhmud
Velitov.Theauthoritiesaccusedtheclericofpublicjustificationofterrorismasdescribedin
Article205.2,Part1oftheRussianCriminalCode.TheauthoritiesallegedthatVelitov
defendedamemberoftheorganizationHizbut-Tahrir,whichisoutlawedinRussia.Velitov
reportedlydidsoduringasermonatthemosqueonKhachaturyanStreetinMoscowseveral
yearsago(Eg.ru,July12).
ThemosqueonKhachaturyanStreetisoneofthelargestinMoscow.TheUnionofMuftisof
Russia,headedbyRavilGainutdin,hasfailedtoextendcontroloverthemosqueandits
imam.TheKhachaturyanStreetmosqueisunderthecontroloftheCentralSpiritual
DirectorateofMuslims,whichisheadedbyaneccentricMuslimcleric,TalgatTadzhuddin.
AlongwiththesetwoMuslimorganizations,thereisalsotheCoordinatingCenterofthe
MuslimsoftheNorthCaucasus,undertheleadershipofIsmailBerdiev.Velitov,thearrested
imam,alsoheadsacharitableorganizationcalledKhalial(Halal).Thepolicesearched
VelitovsmosqueandhishomeontheoutskirtsofMoscow,wheretheyconfiscatedreligious
literature,electronicmedia,andfinancialdocuments.OfficersfromMoscowsCenterfor
CombatingExtremismarrestedthesuspect(TASS,July12).
OfficialsoftheCouncilofMuftisofRussiaquicklydisownedVelitov.TheheadoftheSpiritual
BoardofMuslimsofMoscowandtheimamofMoscowsmainmosque,IldarAlyautdinov,
saidthattheYardyammosqueinMoscowsOtradnoedistrictexistedinisolationandthe
rulesitfolloweddidnotalwayscomplywithIslamicnorms.Thestatementapparentlymeant
thattheofficialMuslimclergygaveupthesuspectedclericandplannedtoappointtheirman
tothe imamsposition,onewhowouldnotcrossredlinesasVelitovdid.Alyautdinov
furthervilifiedVelitov,remindinghisaudiencethattheclerichadlefthispreviouspositionata
historicalmosqueinthecenterofMoscowamidascandal.TherepresentativeoftheCouncil
ofMuftisdidnotmention,however,thatVelitovheadedthemosquesince1999andthatthe
authoritiesapparentlydidnotfindanythingcriminalinthesermonshedeliveredtherefor17
years.TheCouncilofMuftisofRussiaisapparentlytryingtoinfluencetheKremlintosnatch
themosquefromtheCentralSpiritualDirectorateofMuslims.Thedisputewithinthe
leadershipofRussiasMuslimclerics,especiallybetweentheUnionofMuftisofRussiaand
theCentralSpiritualDirectorateofMuslims,hasbeengoingonforthepast30years.The
Russianauthorities,however,willsupporttheinvestigatorsratherthanoneofthecompeting
Muslimfactions.
ItisinterestingthatVelitovwasarrestedforwordsheutteredthreeyearsagoonSeptember
23,2013(Life.ru,July12).Thissuggeststhatsomebodywhohasbeenlookingforevidence
foralongtimeorchestratedhisarrest.AccordingtoVelitovslawyer,theauthoritiessuspect
himofjustifyingAbdullaGappaevattheYardyammosque,whowasreportedlyamemberof
theterroristorganizationHizbut-Tahriral-Islami.Investigatorssaythattheclericjustified
GappaevinaninterviewforanIslamicpublicationinSeptember2013(Kasparov.ru,July12).
Gappaevwasawell-knownMuslimactivistintheDagestanicityofKizlyar.Someobservers
thoughtthatGappaevsmurderonSeptember19,2013,wasrelatedtohissupportforHizb
ut-Tahriral-Islami(Golosislama.com,September19,2013).VelitovsreactiontoGappaevs
deathpromptedtheauthoritiestolaunchaninvestigationtargetinghimthreeyearslater,having
decidedthathesupportedterrorism.
TheotherunusualfeatureofVelitovsarrestisthatinvestigatorsaskedacourttoplacehim
underhousearrestamildpreventivemeasurerarelyusedbyRussianpolice.The
investigationannouncedthatthesuspecthadpartiallyadmittedhisguilt.Itcanbeinterpreted
inavarietyways,Velitovsaid.MyguiltisthatinoneofthefourvideosontheInternet,I
wasindirectlydeemedanaccompliceofterrorism(TASS,July12).InasmuchasVelitovs
confessionwasmadeonthebasisofYouTubevideoswithoutthepresenceofhislawyer,
DagirKhasavov,theclericsdefenseteamthinksthattheconfessionhasnolegalbasis.Itdoes
notalwaysworklikethatinRussia,however.Showingasuspectmercyisnotexactlytypical
oftheRussianjudicialandlegalsystem.Nevertheless,Velitovremainsathomeunderhouse
arrestfornow,insteadofprison.
RussiassecurityservicesandpolicedonotdifferentiatebetweenHizbut-Tahriral-Islamiand
al-QaedaortheIslamicState.RussiasSupremeCourtissuedarulingonFebruary14,2003,
thatdesignatedHizbut-Tahriral-Islamiasaterroristorganizationandoutlawedit.According
totheFederalSecurityService(FSB),theauthoritiesdetainedhundredsofsuspected
membersofHizbut-Tahriral-Islamiduringthelastyearalone(Krymr.com,April1).
MuslimclericsroutinelyaretargetedinRussia.However,theunusualfeatureofthelatest
actionisthattheauthoritiesarrestedaclericinMoscow.Inanycase,Moscowsactionsare
quiteclumsyandlikelytofueldiscontentamongRussiasMuslims,whohavebecome
increasinglypoliticizedagainstthebackdropofviolenceintheMiddleEast.ItistheMuslim
community,nottheRussianpoliticalopposition,thatwillcauseproblemsfortheRussian
authorities.
--MairbekVatchagaev
MajorMudslideForcesConsiderationofAlternativeTransportationRoutesAcross
GreatCaucasusRidge
OnJune23,theTerekRiverfloodedanddestroyedpartoftheGeorgianMilitaryHighway
(Voyenno-Gruzinskayadoroga).Thehighway,whichconnectsRussiatoGeorgiaand
Armenia,wasclosed.Thefloodcausedmudslidesanddestroyedanestimated500600
metersofthehighway,blockingthenarrowroadinthemountainsontheGeorgiansideofthe
border.OnJuly5,theGeorgianauthoritiesfinallyopenedatemporaryrouteforall-wheel-
drivepassengercars.AlargegroupofArmeniansstrandedontheblockedhighwaysheltered
inatemporarytentcampuntilaplanefromtheRussianMinistryforEmergencySituations
evacuatedthemtoYerevan(Newsarmenia.am,July4).
AlthoughdisruptionslastingtwoormoreweeksarenotayearlyphenomenonontheGeorgian
MilitaryHighway,theydotakeplaceperiodically.Shorterdisruptionsarecommonbothinthe
winter,duetoavalanchesandmajorsnowfalls,andatothertimesduetoheavyrainsand
floods.Sincethestartof2016,forexample,thehighwayhasbeenclosedforapproximately
50days(KavkazskayaPolitika,July4).
Inthewinter,theGeorgianMilitaryHighwayisopenonlyduringtheday,whileinthesummer
itisopenaroundtheclock.OntheRussiansside,thehighwayisrelativelyeasytomaintain,
buttheGeorgiansidehastotakecareofmuchrougherterraininthemountains.Ironically,
RussiaisarguablymoreinterestedinmaintainingthehighwayconnectingittoGeorgiathan
Georgiaitself,becausethehighwayiscurrentlytheonlyavailablelandroutebetweenRussia
andArmenia,itsallyintheSouthCaucasus.
TheGeorgianMilitaryHighwayliesintheDarialgorge,locatedeastofMountKazbek,oneof
thehighestpeaksintheCaucasusMountains.TheDarialgorge(inPersian,Dari-eAlanthe
GateofAlans)wasknowninancienttimesasamajorpassagethroughtheGreatCaucasus
MountainRidge,wheretheTerekRivercutsthroughthemountainsandflowstotheCaspian
Sea.AftertheRussianconquestoftheCaucasusinthe19thcentury,Moscowinvested
significantresourcesinrebuildingandmaintainingthehighway,butitneverbecameasafe,all-
seasontransportationroute.DuringtheSovietperiod,mostcargowascarriedviatwoother
majoroverlandpassagescuttingthroughtheCaucasusMountainsfromnorthtosouthone
alongtheCaspianSeaintheareaofDerbentinsouthernDagestan,theotheralongtheBlack
Sea,intheareaofSochiandAdler.However,duetotheGeorgian-Abkhazwarinthe1990s,
andtheArmenian-Azerbaijaniconflict,thealternativeroutesconnectingRussiatotheSouth
Caucasus,especiallytoArmenia,arenolongerusable.
FollowinganothermajorblockageoftheGeorgianMilitaryHighwayinJune,Russian,
GeorgianandArmenianexpertsresumeddebateaboutalternativeroutesconnectingRussiato
theSouthCaucasus.OneofthealternativeroutessuggestedbyRussianexpertsistheTrans-
CaucasusHighway(Transkam)thatrunsviaSouthOssetia.AlthoughTranskamalsorunshigh
inthemountainsandsharesmanyoftheMilitary-GeorgianHighwaysdownsides,Transkamis
saferandhasfewerinterruptions.However,openingtherouteviaSouthOssetiahasquitea
fewobstacles.FromtheGeorgianstandpoint,suchamovecouldlegitimizethebreakaway
GeorgianregionofSouthOssetiaandprovideresourcestothecash-strappedrepublic.From
theSouthOssetianstandpoint,openingtheroutebetweenGeorgiaandRussiacoulddiminish
itsimportanceasRussiasallyintheSouthCaucasus.Finally,evenfromtheRussian
perspective,openingtransitviaSouthOssetiamaynotbeadesirablemovesinceitwould
decreaseSouthOssetiasprofoundeconomicdependenceonMoscow(Kavkazskaya
Politika,July4).
Threeotheralternativeshavebeenputforwardbyvariousforces.Thefirstistorestorethe
oldMilitary-SukhumiHighway,whichranacrossthemountainsfromKarachaevo-Cherkessia
toAbkhazia,butwasshutdownbytheSovietauthoritiesaftertheSecondWorldWar.
NeithertheAbkhaznortheRussiansseeminterestedinrestoringthehighway,eventhoughit
wouldbeanimportanttransportationrouteforKarachaevo-CherkessiaandotherNorth
Caucasianrepublics.Abkhaziasde-factoauthoritiesalsoarenotinterestedinputtingthe
railwaythatusedtoconnectGeorgiatoRussiaviaSochi/Adlerbackinoperation.Thesecond
proposalistorestoretheAvaro-KakhetianhighwaythatranfromthemountainsofDagestan
toGeorgia.SomeworkhasbeendoneontheDagestaniside,butGeorgiadoesnotappear
particularlyinterestedintheproject.ThethirdproposalistobuildahighwayfromChechnyas
Itum-KaledistricttoGeorgia,whichalsoreceivedlittlerecognitioninGeorgia.Chechenhead
RamzanKadyrovsemissariesreportedlyvisitedTbilisitolobbyfortheconstructionofthe
highway,buttheresultsoftheirtripremainunclear(KavkazskayaPolitika,July4).
OntheGeorgianside,thereisageneralwarinessaboutopeningmoretransportationroutes
thatwouldallowRussiatohavegreateraccesstoitsterritory.Followingthefive-daywar
betweenRussiaandGeorgiainAugust2008,Russiaofficiallyrecognizedthebreakaway
GeorgianregionsofAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia.Georgiarespondedbyseveringdiplomatic
relationswithRussia.ThemovementontheGeorgianMilitaryHighwaywasrestoredonlyin
2010,andeventhenmanyGeorgiaexpertsfeareditwasasecurityhazardforthecountry
(Rosbalt.ru,January5,2010).
MoscowspositiononthetransportationroutesacrosstheGreatCaucasusRidgeisalsofar
fromstraightforward.Forexample,therearenoregularlyscheduledflightsfromNorth
CaucasianairportstoTbilisi.EvenattheUpperLarscheckpoint,theGeorgiansidecan
handle270300trucksadayduringnormaloperationtimes,whiletheRussiansiderestricts
thatnumberto50(KavkazskayaPolitika,July4).
Whatseemtobetechnicalrestrictionsarelikelytobepoliticalonesindisguise,suggestingthat
Moscowisreluctanttoallowtheunrestrictedmovementofpeople,especiallyfromtheNorth
CaucasustoGeorgia.RestrictingconnectionsbetweentheNorthandSouthCaucasuswas
certainlyMoscowspolicyattheheightoftheChechensecessionistmovement.Atthesame
time,NorthCaucasianregionalgovernmentsparticularlythoseinKarachaevo-Cherkessia,
Kabardino-Balkaria,ChechnyaandDagestanappearquiteeagertotrytoestablish
transportationlinkswiththeSouthCaucasus.Tensionsintheregion,however,seemtobe
forestallinganyattemptstomakesignificantstridesinthedirectionofgreaterconnectivity
acrosstheCaucasusMountains.
--ValeriyDzutsati
RightsActivists:PoliceZealinProsecutingSuspectedRebelsViolatesLawsand
CommonSense
RightsactivistsofKabardino-Balkariahavechallengedofficialestimatesofthenumberof
militantsfromtherepublicbelievedtobefightinginSyria.InApril,Kabardino-Balkarias
DeputyInteriorMinisterKazbekTatuevstatedthat130residentsoftherepublic,including28
women,werefightingintheMiddleEast.Healsosaidthat96oftheKabardino-Balkarian
militantsfightingintheMiddleEastwereunder30,andthat20ofthemilitantshadbeenkilled
sincethestartoftheconflictinSyria.ItisworthnotingthatTatuevsaidtheRussianauthorities
hadlaunchedonly60criminalinvestigationsagainstKabardino-BalkarianmilitantsinSyria
(KavkazskyUzel,April6).
Awell-knownrightsactivistinKabardino-Balkaria,ValeryKhatazhukov,dismissedthe
officialsfigures,sayingthattheKabardino-BalkarianMinistryofInteriorsclaimthat130
150republicanresidentsarefightinginSyriatoputitmildlydoesnotcorrespondwith
reality.Khatazhukov,whousedtoheadtheKabardino-BalkarianhumanrightscenterZa
PravaCheloveka(ForHumanRights)beforehewasforcedtoshutitdown,added:We
receivemanyreportsfromcitizensthattheyareactuallyinEuropeorTurkey,buttheyareput
ontheinternationalwantedlists,becausetheauthoritiesbelievetheyareintheterritoryof
ISIS[IslamicStateofIraqandSyriaformernamefortheIslamicState].Onehaslivedin
Belgiumforsixyears,andwehavespokenonthephonewithhim.Heisalsoonthewanted
list.SeveraldozensuchindividualsareinTurkey.Therearealsomanycaseswhenresidentsof
therepublicwhointendedtogotoSyriametmembersoftheCircassiandiasporainTurkey
andwereconvincedtodropsuchintentions.Thosepeopleconstantlygetintouchwithus.
TheyarepreparedtoreturntoKabardino-Balkariaandanswerallquestions
(Zapravakbr.com,July8).
ItisnotforthefaintofhearttoreturntoKabardino-Balkariaoncetheindividualhasbeenput
onthelistofsuspects.KhatazhukovrecalledthestoryofAslanKonov,whowenttoTurkey
withtheintentionofjoiningthemilitantsinSyria.However,aftermeetingswiththemembersof
theCircassiandiaspora,herejectedhisplans,returnedtotherepublic,mettheFederal
SecurityService(FSB),andwasreleased.However,sixmonthslater,theCenterfor
CombattingExtremism(notoriouslyknownasCenterE)detainedKonov.Afterthecaseof
Konov,twopeoplewhowewerehavingnegotiationswithabouttheirreturnrefusedtodo
soKhatazhukovsaid.
ThepoliticalregimesinalloftheNorthCaucasianrepublicsareonaveragemorerigidthanin
theethnicallyRussianregionsoftheRussianFederation.However,evenamongtheNorth
Caucasianrepublics,Kabardino-Balkariaisknownforstringentpolicecontrols,whichhasled
someobserverstocalltherepublicapolicestate.Thesituationprobablybecameworse
afteraformertopRussianpoliceofficial,YuryKokov,wasappointedgovernorofthe
republicin2014(Onkavkaz.com,September3,2015).
Kabardino-Balkarianpolicereportedlycameupwiththepolicyofprophylacticregistration,
whichconsistsofregisteringallsuspectedindividualsandthenusingtheliststoharassthem.
TheheadoftheMothersofKabardino-BalkariaforHumanRightsorganization,Maryam
Akhmetova,claimedafirstgraderwhowasthechildofaslainmilitantwasautomaticallyput
onthepolicesprophylacticlist.ThefamilyofEduardMironov,whowassentencedtolifein
prison,wasforcedtosendhischildrentoEuropetosavethemintheliteralsensefromthe
police.Theywereforcedtoleavebecausethepoliceconstantlythreatenedthem,
Akhmetovasaid.Theboywas13,andafterayear,theauthoritiescouldhaveprosecuted
himlegallyunderthenewlawsandnoonecouldhaveproventhatheisinnocent.Reportsof
Kabardino-Balkarianpoliceusingtortureandotherillegalinterrogationmethodsare
ubiquitous,accordingtotheMemorialHumanRightscenter.Sofar,however,notasingle
investigationregardingsuchreportshasbeenlaunched(Zapravakbr.com,July8).
ThelatestinnovationsoftheRussianStateDumamakeabuseofpowerbythepolice
especiallylikely.WiththeRussianparliamentspassageoflegislationintroducedbyState
DumasecurityandanticorruptioncommitteechairIrinaYarovaya,peopleasyoungas14
yearsoldcanbelegallyprosecutedfornotreportingthecriminalintentionsofindividuals.
Underthenewlaw,religiousmissionariesmusthaveaspecialmandatefromtheauthoritiesto
carryoutreligiouswork,andsuchactivitiesmustbeconfinedtoinsideregisteredreligious
premisesonly.ThenewlawthusessentiallyrecreatestheSovietsystemofcontrolover
religion,and,asusuallyhappensinRussia,itwillalmostcertainlybeappliedselectively:
MuslimswillbethefirsttofeelthebruntofthenewruleswhiletheRussianOrthodoxChurch
isunlikelytobeunaffectedbyitfornow(Onkavkaz.com,July2).
DespiteanotablefallinthenumberofrebelattacksinKabardino-Balkaria,tensionsarestill
runninghighintherepublic.Evenifthestringentpolicingsucceedsinrootingoutreligious
radicals,thisoverlyzealousapproach,combinedwithdecliningstandardsofliving,areunlikely
toproducepeaceandstabilityintherepublic.
--ValeryDzutsati
ChechensinSyriaMayQuitIslamicStateAfterDeathofUmarShishani
PeopleinGeorgiasPankisiGorgehavebeengoingquietly,onebyone,toTengizBatirashvili,
theyoungerbrotherofUmarShishani(Batirashvili),toexpresstheircondolencesin
connectionwithUmarShishanisdeath.UnlikehisbrothersUmarandTamaz,Tengiz
BatirashvilididnotgototheMiddleEast,optinginsteadtoremainhomeinGeorgia(Ick.ge,
July16).
TheburialritesinconnectionwithUmarShishaniareunusualbecausepeoplefromacrossthe
valleyarenotgatheringforafuneral,astheywouldcustomarilydo.ManyPankisiresidents
condemnedUmarShishaniforluringyoungmenfromthegorgetotheMiddleEast,where
twoorthreedozenPankisiChechenshavebeenkilled.TheoldestPankisimilitantkilledin
Syriawas30-year-oldRuslanMachilakishvili,whiletheyoungestwas18-year-oldBeso
Kushtanashvili.Accordingtovariousestimates,50to100militantsfromPankisiarefightingin
Syria(Onkavkaz.com,January25).
Thus,thelossesamongthePankisiChechenmilitantsintheMiddleEastarequitesignificant.
GiventhatPankisihasabout10,000residents,everymilitantfromtherekilledintheMiddle
Eastaffectsnearlytheentirearea.UmarShishanihadbeenreportedlykilledupto20times
overthelasttwoyears,butthistimehisdeathwasconfirmedbymembersofhisfamily.Umar
ShishaniheldanimportantpositionwithintheIslamicState(IS)hierarchy.Peoplewere
curiousabouthim,andmanyrumorsandlegendssurroundedhim.Forexample,somesources
claimedhewaspartoftheUnitedStatestrainingprogramfortheGeorgianmilitary,butthatis
nottrue,giventhattheUStrainingprogramendedin2004andShishanijoinedtheGeorgian
militaryin2007.ItisalsonottruethathewaspartoftheinsurgencyduringtheRussian-
Chechenwars,giventhatShishaninevervisitedChechnya.SomeclaimedthatShishaniwasa
radicalMuslimpriortogoingtoTurkeyin2013,whileotherssaidhewasnearlyaChristian.
Neitheroftheseclaimsistrue.Infact,UmarBatirashviligrewupnotasaparticularly
remarkableperson.Hestartedgoingtomosqueatafairlyearlyage,butheneverexpressed
anyparticularlyradicalorunusualbeliefs.Inanycase,peoplearelikelytomakeupmore
storiesabouthimthatbearnorelationtoreality.
UmarBatirashvilisolderbrother,TamazBatirashviliremainsinSyria,whereheadopteda
newname,Abdurakhman.TamazBatirashviliwasreportedlyclosetohisfamousbrother.
Accordingtosomesources,TamazisresponsibleforreconnaissanceintheIslamicState
terroristorganization,whichmeansthatheisprobablyanimportantfigureintheentourageof
ISleaderAbuBakral-Baghdadi.SomepeopleclaimedthattheolderbrotherTamaz
dominatedUmarandturnedhimintothekindoffigurehebecame.Nogroundsexistforsuch
aclaim,however,asTamazBatirashvilihadneitherthepowernortheauthoritytocontrol
Umar,whowasthemilitaryministerfortheIS.
SomeRussiananalystsbelievenothingwillchangeamongtheNorthCaucasiansintheISasa
resultofUmarShishanisdeath(KavkazskyUzel,July15),butthisisalsounlikely:indeed,
peoplewhohavefollowedhimintotheISwilllikelystartquittingtheorganizationafterhis
death.NeitherthereputationofUmarShishanisbrotherTamaznorthereputationofhisaide,
AbuJihadal-Shishani(anethnicKarachaya.k.a.IslamAtabaev)willstemtheoutflowofthe
NorthCaucasianstootherChechencommanders.TheChechenmilitantswhoquittheISwill
rejointhegroupstheyleft.ThemajorityofChechenswhofollowedUmarShishaniintothe
IslamicStatecamefromthreegroups:Jundash-Sham,undertheleadershipofamirMuslim
Shishani(MuradMargoshvili)theCaucasusEmirateinSham,whichisundertheleadership
ofamirSalaudinShishani(PaizullaMargoshvili)andAjnudalKavkaz,whichisunderthe
leadershipof amirAbdulkhakimShishani(RustamAzhiev).InDecember2015, amirAl
BaraShishani(CeasarTokhosashvili)joinedtheISalongwithhisgroup.WithoutUmar
Shishani,otherNorthCaucasianleadersintheISwilllikelyberelegatedtosecondaryroles
andbecomesubordinatetoArabamirs,whichtheywillnotlike.Moreover,intheabsenceof
UmarShishaniamirMuslimShishaniandamirSalaudinShishaniwillreceivethechanceto
attractnewrecruitstoSyria.Ontheotherhand,manypotentialrecruitsoutsideSyriawill
droptheirplanstogototheMiddleEast,giventhattheirheroUmarShishaniisnomore.
Meanwhile,RussianDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigutoldthegovernmentnewspaper
RossiiskayaGazetathatsincethestartofRussianmilitaryoperationsinSyria,morethan
2,000banditsfromRussiahavebeenkilled,including17fieldcommanders(Rossiiskaya
Gazeta,July15).GiventhatRussiasarmedforcesofficiallylaunchedoperationsinSyriain
thefallof2015,andthattheNorthCaucasiansfightingfortheIS,includingChechens,
sufferedtheirmainlossesinthesecondhalfof2014andinthefirsthalfof2015,Shoigumay
haveunderestimatedthenumberofNorthCaucasianmilitantskilledintheMiddleEastby
1,000.Forexample,UmarShishaniassertedina2015speechthat500ofhisNorth
CaucasiansubordinatesdiedinthebattleofKobanialone.Thus,thenumberofNorth
CaucasianmilitantsfightinginSyriamayhavebeensignificantlyreducedduetosignificant
battlefieldlosses.ThedefectionrateamongtheNorthCaucasianmilitantsisalsoquitehigh.
VariousareasofIstanbularenowhometoformerNorthCaucasianmilitantswhofoughtin
Syria.
Inanycase,UmarShishanisdeathwillchangethebehavioroftheChechensaswellasother
NorthCaucasiansandRussiamilitantsfightingintheSyrianwar.Itislikelythatthestructure
establishedbyUmarShishaniinsidetheISmaycrumble.ThiswillmarktheendofUmar
Shishanisepoch,anditisunlikelythatsomebodyelseofhiscaliberwillreplacehimina
meaningfulway.
--MairbekVatchagev
Non-ChechenCandidatesfromMoscowPlanstoRunforSeatsRepresentingthe
NorthCaucasusinUpcomingParliamentaryElections
OnSeptember18,2016,ChechnyaalongwiththerestofRussiawillvoteintheelectionsto
theRussianStateDuma.Chechenswillalsoelectthegovernoroftheirrepublic,wherethe
onlyplausiblecandidateisRamzanKadyrov.ThethreealternativecandidatesforChechnyas
governorSultanDemilkhanovoftheJustRussiaparty,IdrisUsmanovofthePartyof
Businessmen,andGairsoltBataevhavenopossibilityofwinningeven1percentofthe
votes.Thatsameday,ChechenswillalsoelectthenewChechenparliament.Again,anybody
whoisnotonRamzanKadyrovsteamandnotamemberofUnitedRussiawillhaveno
chanceofbeingelected.Inthesingle-mandateconstituencyofChechnya,oneofKadyrovs
closestassociates,AdamDelimkhanov,isdestinedtowin.Kadyrovsfriends,including
MagomedSelimkhanov,andShamsailSaraliev,arealsorunningonpartylists.Another
Chechen,BuvaisarSaitiev,willrunforaseatintheRussianparliamentfromDagestan.
AlthoughnosurprisesareexpectedinChechnya,someofthecandidateswereunexpected.
TheYablokoparty,undertheleadershipofveteranRussianoppositionfigureGrigory
Yavlinsky,putforwardSvetlanaGannushkinaasthepartyscandidatefortheRussian
parliamentfromChechnya.Gannushkinaisalongtimehumanrightsactivistwhohasdefended
therightsofminoritiesandmigrants.SheheadsthecivicorganizationGrazhdanskoe
SodeistvieandisaboardmemberoftheMemorialhumanrightsgroup(regnum.ru,July13).
GannushkinaisarguablyoneoftheleadingandmostrespectedrightsactivistsinRussia,but
thatmeanslittlefortheChechenleadership.Atarallyorganizedbytherepublicsgovernment,
shewascalledtheenemyoftheChechenpeople(openrussia.org,July13).
Thus,GannushkinawillbeunabletobephysicallypresentinChechnyatolaunchher
campaign.Whydidtheactivist,arecipientofmultipleawardsaroundtheworld,including
FrancesChevalieroftheOrderoftheLegionofHonor,agreetocampaigntobeelected
fromChechnya?Gannushkinasaidthatshedidnotexpectanythingfromthevoters.Voters
arescaredanddonotdareopentheirmouthstheygotopublicsquaresinsupportofRamzan
KadyrovandhearthatweareproclaimedtobetheenemiesoftheChechenpeople,she
said.Mynominationismoreofamessagetothepeoplethananactualattempttobeelected
totheStateDuma(kavkaz-uzel.eu,July8).
GannushkinasrefusaltocampaigninsideChechnyaindicateshowgravethechallengesareto
thosefromMoscowwhoattempttoengageinhumanrightsactivitiesintherepublic.
Gannushkinasnominationisonlyanattempttodrawattentiontowhatisgoingonin
Chechnya.
MuscovitesarejoiningthepoliticalfrayinotherNorthCaucasianrepublics.Thewell-known
journalistandmemberoftheRussianpresidentshumanrightscouncil,MaksimShevchenko,
unexpectedlydecidedtorunforaRussianStateDumadeputyseatrepresentingDagestan.
ShevchenkopickedDagestansSouthernElectoralDistrict,whichisthemostdifficultonein
therepublicandisknownforitsvolatility.TheIslamistthreat,theproblemofthedivided
Lezginpeople,conflictsbetweenclansandbetweenfollowersofcompetingIslamicteachings
areallpresentinsouthernDagestan.UnlikethesituationinChechnya,theoutcomeofthe
electionsinDagestancannotbeeasilypredicted.WhileKadyrovhas100percentsupport
amongChechens,thegovernorofDagestan,RamazanAbdulatipov,hasonly10percent
supportamonghisfellowDagestanis(chernovik.net,July15).
ThusShevchenko,theMoscowcandidateinDagestan,hassomechancestobeelectedand,
unlikeGannushkina,planstocampaigninsideDagestanandofferhissolutionstotherepublics
problems.LocalsinDagestandonotwelcomeexternalcandidates,andtheywillhaveto
choosebetweentheirownLezginorTabasarancandidatesandaMuscovite.Shevchenko
evidentlyoverestimateshisinfluenceintheNorthCaucasus.TheMoscowjournalistisoneof
thefewwhocriticizesMoscowspoliciesintheNorthCaucasusanddefendsthose
persecutedforbeingfollowersofcertainIslamicsectsandteachings.However,allegianceto
clansnormallytrumpseverythingelseinDagestan.Dagestanianalystshavedivergentopinions
aboutShevchenko:someconsiderhimasupporteroftheSalafists,whileotherssaythathe
hasmadeadealwithAbdulatipov.AllDagestaniobserversagreethathewillfaceanuphill
battleintheDagestanielections,especiallygiventhatelectionsintherepublicarealways
accompaniedbyfraudallegations(regnum.ru,July19).
CandidatesfromMoscowrunningforStateDumaseatsrepresentingChechnyaandDagestan
willnotloseout,whateverhappens.Onthecontrary,theirstatuswillincreaseamongthe
locals,asthelatterwillbecomehopefulthattheymightsomedaybeabletovoteforsomeone
theyactuallywant.TheappearanceofcandidatesfromtheRussiancapitalinChechnyaand
Dagestanwillmaketheelectionssomewhatmoreintriguing,andnotasdullasinprevious
years.
--MairbekVatchagaev
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Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue133
INTHISISSUE
*RomaniasBlackSeanavalinitiativeupforreconsiderationbyNATO
*RussiaopposesTHAADdeploymenttoSouthKorea
Dagestan?
*Lukashenkadisagreeswithdomesticliberalreformersbutkeepsthemingovernment

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
NATOCanRefloatRomaniasBlackSeaNavalInitiative(PartThree)

ItwasasummitofmodestexpectationsandmodestresultsfortheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganization(NATO)inWarsawonJuly89.Theseresultsareofaninterim
nature:buildingblocksforfurtherdecisionsatupcomingministerialmeetings,not
waitinguntilthenextsummit.TheWarsawresultsdonot,asyet,correlatewiththe
growthinRussiascapacitytothreaten,intimidate,orsubverttheAlliancegenerally
anditseasternnowfrontlinemembercountriesinparticular.
Before,during,andafterNATOssummit,theTurkishgovernmentmaintainedsilenceon
RomaniasinitiativetoestablishaframeworkforjointnavalexercisesbyNATOallies,riparian
andnon-riparian,intheBlackSea.NATOsWarsawsummitresolvedtodeferconsideration
ofthisproposaluntilOctober.RomanianPresidentKlausIohannisannouncedthathiscountry
wouldcontinueworkingwithTurkey,Bulgaria,andNATOauthoritiestopromotethisinitiative
(seeEDM,June24,July15,18,19).
Thistaskbecomesevenmoredifficultaftertheattemptedcoupdtatbyelementsofthe
TurkishmilitaryonJuly15-16.Theeventitself,andthemethodsemployedbyPresident
RecepTayypErdoganscounter-coup,havedestabilizedTurkeysarmedforces,state
institutions,andrelationswiththeUnitedStatesandNATO,whileacceleratingAnkaras
rapprochementwithMoscow.Theseconsequenceswillaffectsecurityarrangementsinthe
BlackSeabasinandNATOsposturethere,includingRomaniasproposalfora
rotationalpresenceofnon-riparianallieswarshipsintheBlackSea.
ForNATOtobringthisinitiativetofruition,theconsentofTurkeywithinthetermsofthe
MontreuxConventionisasinequanon.Romaniasproposalcoincidedfortuitouslywiththe
riftbetweenTurkeyandRussia,followingRussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriasincethe
autumnof2015.TheongoingchangesinTurkey,however,willmakeitevenmoredifficult
thanitalreadywastoobtainTurkeysconsenttoRomaniasproposal.
Longbeforethepresentcrisis,TurkeywasreluctanttoacceptNATOinitscollectivecapacity
tobepresentintheBlackSea.Instead,TurkeyallowedwarshipsofindividualNATO
membercountries(theUnitedStatesandothers)toentertheBlackSea,moreorless
regularly,forportcallsandjointexerciseswithripariannavies.Fortheirpart,NATOallies
carefullycompliedwiththelimitationsoftheMontreuxConventionintermsoftonnageand
lengthofstayoftheirwarshipsintheBlackSea.ThealliesrespectedTurkeysviewofthat
documentassacrosanct.Turkeysmilitarywasinfullagreementwiththecountryscivilian
governmentsonkeepingNATO(collectively)outoftheBlackSea.
TurkeyblockedNATOsproposalstoallowOperationActiveEndeavor(2001-2016),an
Alliednavaloperation,tobeextendedfromtheMediterraneanintotheBlackSea.Although
NATOsproposalswerecompliantwiththeMontreuxConvention,Turkeysawthisoperation
asacollectiveoneandblockedit,notleastforthatpoliticalreason.InAugust2008,
unilaterallyinterpretingtheMontreuxConvention,Turkeyblockedthepassageofanunarmed
U.S.transportandhospitalshipenroutetoGeorgiaduringtheRussianinvasionofthat
country.
ThroughoutthatperiodTurkeyoptedtomaintain,defacto,aTurkish-Russiannaval
condominiumintheBlackSea.Notleastforreasonsofprestige,Turkeydeemedthenaval
condominiumwithRussiapreferabletoaNATOcollectiverotationalpresence,nottomention
aTurkish-Romanian-Bulgariangrouping.
Thatcondominiumsmilitaryandpoliticalexpressionperhapsmorepoliticalthanmilitary
becameBlackseafor,aformatforregularnavalexercisesofallsixripariancountries,fourof
whosenaviesweredwarfedbytheothertwo.ThisformatplayedintoRussiashandsby
excludingnon-riparianNATOallies.AftertheRussiannavys2008assaultonGeorgiathat
destroyedGeorgiascoastalguardfleetatanchorinPoti,Blackseaforcontinueditsregular
activitiesasifnothinghadoccurred.AllofBlackseaforsdecisionsandindeedalldiscussion
itemscouldonlybeadoptedbyconsensus,i.e.subjecttoRussiasveto,turningBlackseafors
securityandconfidence-buildingpurposesintoanOSCE-likefarce.Russiasseizureof
CrimeafromUkrainein2014finallysankBlackseafor.Thatremainsanobjectlessonto
anyoneinNATOwho,aftertheWarsawsummitjustheld,wouldstillconsideroptionsfor
anothermaritimesecuritysolutionthroughregionaleffortsbytheBlackSealittoralstates
i.e.,jointlywithRussia(SummitCommunique,Paragraph23).
Foritspart,TurkeymaintainedprivilegedeconomicandpoliticalrelationswithRussia,
notwithstandingRussiasseizureofCrimeaandactivewarinUkraine.Itwasonlyafter
RussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriathatErdoganturnedagainstMoscowashifthighlighted
byTurkeydowningaSyria-basedRussianwarplaneinNovember2015.
DuringthatphaseoftensionswithRussia,ErdoganseemedalarmedbyRussiasintentionsin
theBlackSea.InApril,hereproachedthevisitingNATOSecretary-General,Jens
Stoltenberg:YouarenotvisibleintheBlackSea,yourinvisibilityturnsthisseaintoaRussian
lake.Incongruously,Erdogancontinued:Weshouldfollowanapproachofregional
inclusiveness.Wewillkeepsharingourapproachwithripariancountries.Inthelattervein,
ErdogantoldaconferenceofBalkancountrieschiefsofdefenseinIstanbul:Weshould
transformtheBlackSeaintoabasinofstabilityagain,basedoncooperationamongthe
ripariancountriesaroundtheBlackSeaimplicitly,backtonavalcondominium
(Hurriyet,June17).
JustaheadofNATOssummit,Erdoganpubliclyapologized(Anadolunewsagency,June27,
29)toRussianPresidentVladimirPutinoverthedownedplane,evidentlyanxioustorestore
TurkeyseconomictieswithRussiaandapparentlytoseekamodusvivendiwithRussiain
Syria.Inthatcontext,TurkeycouldnotbeexpectedtoendorseRomaniasnavalinitiativeat
NATOssummit.InthewakeoftheJuly15-16putschinTurkey,thetwopresidentsagreed
onanearlyAugustdateforErdogantovisitRussia(Anadolu,July21).TheTurkishsidetends
tousethetermnormalizationwhileRussianofficialsseemtoavoidthattermasofnow.
Intheshorttermatleast,TurkeyscredibilityandvalueasaNATOallylooksseverely
diminished.Thearmy,navyandairforcearenowundergoingthethirdmassivepurgeofthe
officercorps,aftertheErgenekonandBalyoz(sledgehammer)(politicallymotivatedpurgesof
themilitaryin2007-2013,jointlyorchestratedbyErdoganwiththeGlenistnetworksee
below).
TheUnitedStatesnowrisksaforfeitofitsremaininginfluenceinTurkey.Erdoganandhis
followersblametheputschontheU.S.-basedclericFetullahGlenandhiscovertnetworkin
Turkey,demandingGlensextradition.Legally,theGlenistsinvolvementintheputschisfar
fromproven.Politically,however,thedecisivefactsarethattheU.S.needsTurkey
regardlessofhowthishappenedmorethantheotherwayaroundthatRussiahasmuch
moretoofferasaneconomicpartnertoTurkeyandthatErdoganandhisfollowers
implacablypursuetheGlenistmovementastheirmainenemy,withoutappreciatingU.S.legal
technicalities.TheysimplyholdtheUnitedStatesresponsibleforharboringthemovements
leaderandhisoperatingbase.TopU.S.officialsinitiallyindicatedthattheU.S.wouldnot,and
couldnot,extraditeGlentoTurkey.TheTurkishpro-ErdogandailySabah,however,has
suggestedthatGlenbedeportedtoathirdcounty,asaface-savingsolutionforall
concerned,andeventhatWashingtonwouldconsiderdiscussingwithAnkarathepossibilityof
extradition(Sabah,July20,21).
Atthispoint,theGlenissuecouldmakeorbreakU.S.-Turkeycooperation.Relationscould
deterioratefurtherifaresolutionoftheGlenissueisdelayedbyU.S.presidentialelection.
U.S.influencewithErdogansgovernmentseemsnowatanall-timelow.Forseveraldays
afterthecoupattempt,Turkishauthoritiesdisruptedsomeofthenormaldailyworkatthe
Incirlikairbase,whichtheUnitedStatesregardsasitsmostvaluedassetinTurkey.Mutual
alienationwillincreasefurtherifErdoganproceedswithanindiscriminatecrackdownon
legitimatepoliticalopponentsandamassesevenmorepersonalpowerunconstitutionally.In
thatcase,theUnitedStatesmightrespondwithpublicremonstrations,andPutinwouldexploit
therift.
TurkeysrapprochementwithRussiaseemsimminent,drivenlargelybyTurkeyseconomic
interestsanddependenceonmassiveRussian-generatedrevenuesTurkishexportsofgoods
andservicestoRussia,RussiantourismtoTurkeybutalsopartlymotivatedbyTurkeys
unprecedentedvulnerabilityinthesouth.There,Russianforceshaveentrenchedthemselvesin
Syria,shoringupErdogansenemyBasharal-Assad,whileU.S.-armedSyrianKurdsare
settingupdefactocantonsinthevicinityofTurkeysKurdish-populatedterritory,infuriating
Ankara.
WithU.S.influencecurrentlyatanall-timelowinTurkey,ErdoganturningtoRussiafor
supportfromapositionofunprecedentedTurkishvulnerability,turmoilinstateinstitutions,and
destabilizedarmedforces,TurkeycannotbeexpectedtoconsiderproposalsforNATO-led
securityarrangementsintheBlackSearegion.
Atthispoint,theinterestedNATOmembercountriescoulddotheirbesttoprecludeanother
Blackseafor-type,inclusivemaritimesecuritysolutionwithRussia.Thiswouldachieve
neithersecuritynorconfidencebuilding.RussiaspositionisconvergentwithTurkeys
positioninrecentdecades.RussiatoleratesexercisesandportvisitsintheBlackSeaby
warshipsofindividualNATOnon-ripariancountries.Butitopposesamultinationalformatthat
wouldincludewarshipsofnon-ripariancountrieswhileexcludingthoseofriparianRussia.
--VladimirSocor
MissileDefenseinKoreaFurtherRoilsUS-RussianRelations
EuropeisnottheonlytheaterofacutediscordbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStatesnoris
theallegedmilitarizationoftheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)theonlyissuethat
angersMoscowinthiscontext.RussianireoverUSpolicyalsofocuseson,andperhaps
evenprioritizes,theadventofmissiledefensesinbothEuropeandAsiaasathreattoRussian
interests.Inparticular,MoscowhasvoicedangeratthejointUSSouthKoreandecisionto
emplacetheTerminalHighAltitudeAreaDefense(THAAD)missiledefensenetworkinSouth
Koreatodefendit(andJapan)againstpotentiallyincomingNorthKoreanmissiles,either
conventionalornuclear.AmajorreasonforRussianoppositiontothisdeploymentisthat
THAADsX-bandradarcanspotmissilelaunchesasfaras2,000kmawayand,interminal
mode,atadistanceof600km.Hence,SouthKoreanoperatorswillbeabletoseeRussian
missilelaunchesinSiberiaandtheRussianFarEast(RT,AsiaTimes,July8).
RussianoppositiontomissiledefenseinEastAsiasharescommonrootswiththeequally(if
notmore)staunchoppositiontosuchdeploymentsinEurope,goingbackadecadeifnot
more.Notsurprisingly,therefore,Russianofficials,includingtheRussianambassadorto
Seoul,AlexanderTimonin,havegoneonrecordtosaythatTHAADisadirectthreatto
Russiassecurity(SputnikNews,July11).
BeijingresolutelyechoesMoscowsvociferoushostilitytothedeploymentofTHAAD
batteriesinEastAsia.RussiaandChinasjointoppositiontoTHAADalsoderivesfromthe
factthatamissiledefensesystemisbelievedbybothgovernmentstobeabletonegatetheir
owncapabilities(orsimplythreat)tolaunchconventionalornuclearmissilesagainsttheUS,
JapanorSouthKorea.Inotherwords,itdeprivesthemofeithertheoptionofafirststrikeor
ofasecond-strikeretaliationandthusupsetstheirconceptsofbothcrisisstabilityand
strategicstability.BothsidessignedadeclarationonstrategicstabilityduringPresident
VladimirPutinslastvisittoBeijing.Thedocumentlinksnucleararmsreductiontothebalance
ofpowersinconventionalarmsandnon-interferenceindomesticaffairs.Hence,toMoscow
andBeijing,THAADsemplacementdirectlycontravenestheirjointapproach(Vedomosti,
July12).
CertainRussianwritersarguethatbyplacingmissiledefensesinSouthKoreathatdeployment
willsomehowcontributetothefurtherdestabilizationoftheregionandgoadorprovoke
NorthKoreaintoevenmoreunacceptablesteps(Interfax,July8).Yet,suchanargument
disregardsthefactthatitwasNorthKoreasalreadyoutrageousstepsinbothconventional
andnuclearmissileprogramsthathaddriventheSouthKoreangovernmenttoaccept
THAADinthefirstplace.NordoRussianwritersseemtotakeintoaccountthelikely
probabilitythatadefenselessSouthKoreawouldinviteevenmoretroublefromitsbelligerent
northernneighbor.Nevertheless,manyRussianexpertshaveadoptedtheabove-cited
attitudedespitethefactthatatleastsomeoftheircolleaguesacknowledgethatthesituationin
theKoreanpeninsulais,infact,(tousetheirword)boiling(RossiyskayaGazeta,March9).
Indeed,KonstantinKosachev,theheadoftheFederationCouncils(upperchamberofthe
Russianparliament)ForeignAffairsCommittee,claimedNorthKoreanbehaviorismerely
beingusedasapretextforSouthKoreasdecision,whichitselfwillendupprovokingNorth
Koreaintoevenmoreriskysteps(Interfax,July8).This,ofcourse,isaperfectexampleof
blamingthevictim.
ItappearsthatMoscowseesnoreasonforTHAADdeploymentstotheregion,because,
afterall,NorthKoranmissilelaunchesdonotthreatenRussia.Andthisattitudepersists
regardlessofthefactthatsuchNorthKoreanmissilescouldbearmedwithnuclearwarheads,
thusviolatinginternationaltreatiesandresolutionstowhichRussiaisaparty,suchasthe
NonproliferationTreatyandinnumerableUnitedNationsresolutionsonPyongyangsnuclear
weaponsandballisticmissiletests.AndevenifthesetestsareundesirableforRussia,
MoscowisstillnotwillingtoacknowledgethatSouthKoreaandJapanhavetherightto
defendthemselvesagainstunacceptableandparticularlyconsequentialthreatslikemissilesand
nuclearweapons(Interfax,July9).
Finally,beyondallthespeciousorself-servingargumentsadvancedbyRussianspokesmen,it
seemsthatwhatmightbemostalarmingtoMoscowandtoBeijingisthefactthatbyits
decisiontohostTHAADelementsonitsterritory,SouthKoreahasreaffirmeditsclose
cooperationwiththeUSmilitary.Furthermore,theyseeSeoulasgoingbackonitsprevious
assurancesthatitwouldnotjointheUSBallisticMissileDefense(BMD)program.
Therefore,asKosachevobserved,weandourChinesecolleagueswillhavetorespondto
thismovethatdiminishesregionalstabilityandtheglobalbalance.Inotherwords,the
presenceofTHAADinKoreafurthercementstheSouthKoreanUSalliancewhiledriving
RussiaandChinaclosertogether(Interfax,July8).
WhatallthisultimatelymeansisthatinitshostilitytowardWashington,theKremlinhas
becomeblindtotheconclusionsofitsownanalysts.Namely,theRussiangovernmenthas
becomeideologicallydismissiveofthenotionthatNorthKoreasbehaviorissoprovocative
thatitsneighborshavehadtomakehighlyconsequentialandunprecedenteddecisionsto
defendthemselves.NordoesMoscowappearreadytoadmitthatSino-Russian
encouragementofPyongyangortheirtendencytoblameWashingtonandSeoul(ifnotTokyo)
firstmerelybringsaboutwhattheyhavemostfearedsincethetimemissiledefenseinAsia
becameanissue:THAADisbutasymbolofthedevelopingsecurityintegrationamongSouth
Korea,JapanandtheUS.TheconsequencesofMoscowsstancearealreadymaking
themselvesfeltregionally,particularlyinthedeclineofRussiantiestoSouthKorea
(Valdaiclub.com,July19)anothernailinthecoffinofRussiasso-calledpivottoAsia.
--StephenBlank
Chechnya.
years.
--MairbekVatchagaev
Belarus:ChangeIsintheOffing
TheevolvingpoliticaldynamicsofBelarusarecausinganunprecedentedshiftinpolicystances
andviewpointsthatwereheretoforeconsideredimmovable.Thus,someoftheopinionsthat
usedtoberoutinelyassociatedwiththeWest-friendlyoppositionaretodayoftenbeing
embracedbythegovernmentitself.Suchpolicyreversalsincludetheupcomingparliamentary
elections,majorexternaleventsliketheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)
WarsawSummit(July89),aswellaseconomicreform.
Thefirstphaseofpreparationsfortheelections(scheduledforSeptember11,2016)i.e.,
theformationofregionalandlocalelectoralcommissionsandtheregistrationoftheso-called
initiativegroups(IG)topromotecandidateshascometoanend.Thenon-governmental
organization(NGO)HumanRightsWatchersforFreeElectionsobservedinitsreportthat
theoverwhelmingnumberoftheIGsonbehalfofthemembersoftheoppositionhavebeen
registered(Tut.by,July12).ConsideringthattheBelarusianHouseofRepresentatives(lower
houseofparliament)has110seats,onaveragefourcandidateswillcompeteforoneseat
(BelarusSegodnya,July9).
TheEuropeancountrieshavemadesomeconcessionstoBelarus,thechairwomanofthe
CentralElectoralCommission,LidiyaErmoshina,uncharacteristicallyobserved.Buttheyare
temporaryandcontingentontheparliamentaryelections.Andthatmeansthatthefutureofour
countryandthefutureofournationaleconomydependuponhowwellwecarryoutthis
campaign,asallfinancialprojectshavebeenpostponeduntilSeptember11(Tut.by,July14).
Ontheradicalsideoftheopposition,theusualdilemmaiswhethertoparticipateinthe
electionsatall.Thistime,thenon-participationappealwasauthoredbyPavelUsov,inwhose
opinion,underthecurrentsituation,theelectionsareimbuedwithlies,andsoparticipatingin
themistoallowtheseliestostriketheirroots(BelorusskiiPartizan,July11).Usovsview
wasconfrontedbyanevenmoreprominentopposition-mindedpundit.AccordingtoValer
KarbalevichwhoisbasedinMinskbutworksforRadioLiberty,Usovundulyassumedthe
roleofamoralpreachermoreappropriateforclergythanforsomeonewhodispenseshis
advicetopoliticians.Therearenopoliticswithoutcompromises.Socallinguponthe
oppositiontorejectanycompromisewiththeauthoritiesisanabsurdity.Tobesure,the
problemisthatthepowersthatbethemselvesdonotwantcompromise,butthatisatotally
differentmatter,remarksKarbalevich(Svaboda.org,July13).
Thelatterassertion,however,mayalsobecalledintoquestion.Casesinpointarethewayin
whichtheNATOWarsawSummithasbeencommenteduponbythemajorBelarusiandaily,
BelarusSegodnya,aswellasthemostrecentappraisalofthereform-mindedmembersofthe
governmentinMinsk.Asfortheformer,thearticleinBelarusSegodnyareflectsasurprisingly
evenhandedassessmentoftheconfrontationbetweentheNorthAtlanticAllianceandRussia:
NATOaccusesRussiaofaggravatingthesituation,whereasRussiaaccusesNATO.The
rhetorictheyuseisthesame,andthereferencesarethesameaswell:forexample,tothefact
thatthemilitaryexercisesarecarriedoutontheirrespectiveterritories.Thesamewordsare
pronouncedtotheeffectthattheywerenottheinitiatorsofanewcoldwar,butnowthey
haveto[builduptheirdefenses],andthelike(BelarusSegodnya,July12).Atthesametime,
intheirdiscussionofthepossibleconsequencesoftheNATOsummitforBelarus,the
opposition-mindedcommentatorsobservethatPresidentAlyaksandrLukashenkadoesnot
fulfilthedirectcommandsfromtheKremlinandthatattachmenttoRussiaisnotamatterofhis
choiceratheritiscontingentonBelarusseconomicimperatives.Afterall,Russiaisthe
principalmarketforBelarussmachine-building,whilealternativemarketsarelacking
(Svaboda.org,July10).
Bythesametoken,Minskswillingnesstocompromisemayratherbeendorsedonthebasis
ofArtyomShraibmansarticleforMoscowsCarnegieCenter.ItisprovocativelytitledWhy
doesLukashenkaneedareform-mindedgovernment?Shraibman,affiliatedwiththeMinsk-
basedprivately-ownednewsportalTut.by,aversthattheleadingpositionsinthegovernment
areheldbyliberaleconomistssuchastheheadoftheNationalBankPavelKallaur,vice
premierVassilyMatyushevsky,anddeputychairofthePresidentialAdministrationNikolai
Snopkov.TheyandthenowformereconomicadvisortoPresidentLukashenka,KirillRudyi
(whohasjustbeenappointedambassadortoChina),havemanagedtostabilizethecurrency
marketbyconductingarigidmonetarypolicyandintroducingafloatingexchangerateforthe
Belarusianruble.Theyhavebeen,sofarfruitlessly,proddingLukashenkatobeginthekey
phaseofstructuralreform,thatis,tocurtailsubsidizingtheloss-makingstate-runindustrial
giantsandtoprivatizethem.TheparallelsbetweenthereformersintodaysBelaruswiththe
ChicagoBoysunderChilesAugustoPinochet(1970s1980s)andaliberaleconomicteam
underFranciscoFrancoinlate-1950sSpainsuggestthemselves.Buttheseparallelshaveone
flaw:unlikePinochetandFranco,Lukashenkaisadevoutsocialist,sohekeepsonscolding
hisgovernmentforproposingtheideaswhoseimplementationisfraughtwithnegativesocial
outcomes.SowhydoesLukashenkakeepthosepeopleaswellastheleadingfiguresinthe
MinistryofForeignAffairswhoaresucceedingintheirpursuitofaneven-handedforeign
policy?Shraibmansresponseisthatallofthemaretrueprofessionals,whereastheattempts
toresolveBelaruseconomicproblemsbyresortingtotheoldMarxistsfromtheeconomic
departmentsofBelarusiancollegeshavefailed.Theseprofessionalscanalsousethesame
professionallanguagespokenbytheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).Shraibman
observesthatalthoughthecurrentpoliticalelitesofBelarusaremorecohesiveandunitedthan
inCentralAsianautocracies,thecontinuingdegradationoftheeconomyandthefactthat
economicliberalsareyoungerthantheirwell-entrencheddirigistecounterpartsmaybeasign
ofthefutureriftwithintheelite(Carnegie.ru,July13).
Regardlessofthepotentialsplits,however,Minsksreadinesstoembracemultifacetedchange
alreadyseemstobeafactoflife.Onlyinertiaandarelianceonoutdatedstereotypesmay
preventanaccurateassessmentofthissituation.ThecurrentBelaruspoliciesoftheUnited
StatesandtheEuropeanUnionhave,inpart,respondedtothatreadiness.Butevenmore
definitiveandfine-tunedresponsesarecalledfor.
--GrigoryIoffe
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Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue133
INTHISISSUE
*RomaniasBlackSeanavalinitiativeupforreconsiderationbyNATO
*RussiaopposesTHAADdeploymenttoSouthKorea
Dagestan?
*Lukashenkadisagreeswithdomesticliberalreformersbutkeepsthemingovernment

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
NATOCanRefloatRomaniasBlackSeaNavalInitiative(PartThree)

ItwasasummitofmodestexpectationsandmodestresultsfortheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganization(NATO)inWarsawonJuly89.Theseresultsareofaninterim
nature:buildingblocksforfurtherdecisionsatupcomingministerialmeetings,not
waitinguntilthenextsummit.TheWarsawresultsdonot,asyet,correlatewiththe
growthinRussiascapacitytothreaten,intimidate,orsubverttheAlliancegenerally
anditseasternnowfrontlinemembercountriesinparticular.
Before,during,andafterNATOssummit,theTurkishgovernmentmaintainedsilenceon
RomaniasinitiativetoestablishaframeworkforjointnavalexercisesbyNATOallies,riparian
andnon-riparian,intheBlackSea.NATOsWarsawsummitresolvedtodeferconsideration
ofthisproposaluntilOctober.RomanianPresidentKlausIohannisannouncedthathiscountry
wouldcontinueworkingwithTurkey,Bulgaria,andNATOauthoritiestopromotethisinitiative
(seeEDM,June24,July15,18,19).
Thistaskbecomesevenmoredifficultaftertheattemptedcoupdtatbyelementsofthe
TurkishmilitaryonJuly15-16.Theeventitself,andthemethodsemployedbyPresident
RecepTayypErdoganscounter-coup,havedestabilizedTurkeysarmedforces,state
institutions,andrelationswiththeUnitedStatesandNATO,whileacceleratingAnkaras
rapprochementwithMoscow.Theseconsequenceswillaffectsecurityarrangementsinthe
BlackSeabasinandNATOsposturethere,includingRomaniasproposalfora
rotationalpresenceofnon-riparianallieswarshipsintheBlackSea.
ForNATOtobringthisinitiativetofruition,theconsentofTurkeywithinthetermsofthe
MontreuxConventionisasinequanon.Romaniasproposalcoincidedfortuitouslywiththe
riftbetweenTurkeyandRussia,followingRussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriasincethe
autumnof2015.TheongoingchangesinTurkey,however,willmakeitevenmoredifficult
thanitalreadywastoobtainTurkeysconsenttoRomaniasproposal.
Longbeforethepresentcrisis,TurkeywasreluctanttoacceptNATOinitscollectivecapacity
tobepresentintheBlackSea.Instead,TurkeyallowedwarshipsofindividualNATO
membercountries(theUnitedStatesandothers)toentertheBlackSea,moreorless
regularly,forportcallsandjointexerciseswithripariannavies.Fortheirpart,NATOallies
carefullycompliedwiththelimitationsoftheMontreuxConventionintermsoftonnageand
lengthofstayoftheirwarshipsintheBlackSea.ThealliesrespectedTurkeysviewofthat
documentassacrosanct.Turkeysmilitarywasinfullagreementwiththecountryscivilian
governmentsonkeepingNATO(collectively)outoftheBlackSea.
TurkeyblockedNATOsproposalstoallowOperationActiveEndeavor(2001-2016),an
Alliednavaloperation,tobeextendedfromtheMediterraneanintotheBlackSea.Although
NATOsproposalswerecompliantwiththeMontreuxConvention,Turkeysawthisoperation
asacollectiveoneandblockedit,notleastforthatpoliticalreason.InAugust2008,
unilaterallyinterpretingtheMontreuxConvention,Turkeyblockedthepassageofanunarmed
U.S.transportandhospitalshipenroutetoGeorgiaduringtheRussianinvasionofthat
country.
ThroughoutthatperiodTurkeyoptedtomaintain,defacto,aTurkish-Russiannaval
condominiumintheBlackSea.Notleastforreasonsofprestige,Turkeydeemedthenaval
condominiumwithRussiapreferabletoaNATOcollectiverotationalpresence,nottomention
aTurkish-Romanian-Bulgariangrouping.
Thatcondominiumsmilitaryandpoliticalexpressionperhapsmorepoliticalthanmilitary
becameBlackseafor,aformatforregularnavalexercisesofallsixripariancountries,fourof
whosenaviesweredwarfedbytheothertwo.ThisformatplayedintoRussiashandsby
excludingnon-riparianNATOallies.AftertheRussiannavys2008assaultonGeorgiathat
destroyedGeorgiascoastalguardfleetatanchorinPoti,Blackseaforcontinueditsregular
activitiesasifnothinghadoccurred.AllofBlackseaforsdecisionsandindeedalldiscussion
itemscouldonlybeadoptedbyconsensus,i.e.subjecttoRussiasveto,turningBlackseafors
securityandconfidence-buildingpurposesintoanOSCE-likefarce.Russiasseizureof
CrimeafromUkrainein2014finallysankBlackseafor.Thatremainsanobjectlessonto
anyoneinNATOwho,aftertheWarsawsummitjustheld,wouldstillconsideroptionsfor
anothermaritimesecuritysolutionthroughregionaleffortsbytheBlackSealittoralstates
i.e.,jointlywithRussia(SummitCommunique,Paragraph23).
Foritspart,TurkeymaintainedprivilegedeconomicandpoliticalrelationswithRussia,
notwithstandingRussiasseizureofCrimeaandactivewarinUkraine.Itwasonlyafter
RussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriathatErdoganturnedagainstMoscowashifthighlighted
byTurkeydowningaSyria-basedRussianwarplaneinNovember2015.
DuringthatphaseoftensionswithRussia,ErdoganseemedalarmedbyRussiasintentionsin
theBlackSea.InApril,hereproachedthevisitingNATOSecretary-General,Jens
Stoltenberg:YouarenotvisibleintheBlackSea,yourinvisibilityturnsthisseaintoaRussian
lake.Incongruously,Erdogancontinued:Weshouldfollowanapproachofregional
inclusiveness.Wewillkeepsharingourapproachwithripariancountries.Inthelattervein,
ErdogantoldaconferenceofBalkancountrieschiefsofdefenseinIstanbul:Weshould
transformtheBlackSeaintoabasinofstabilityagain,basedoncooperationamongthe
ripariancountriesaroundtheBlackSeaimplicitly,backtonavalcondominium
(Hurriyet,June17).
JustaheadofNATOssummit,Erdoganpubliclyapologized(Anadolunewsagency,June27,
29)toRussianPresidentVladimirPutinoverthedownedplane,evidentlyanxioustorestore
TurkeyseconomictieswithRussiaandapparentlytoseekamodusvivendiwithRussiain
Syria.Inthatcontext,TurkeycouldnotbeexpectedtoendorseRomaniasnavalinitiativeat
NATOssummit.InthewakeoftheJuly15-16putschinTurkey,thetwopresidentsagreed
onanearlyAugustdateforErdogantovisitRussia(Anadolu,July21).TheTurkishsidetends
tousethetermnormalizationwhileRussianofficialsseemtoavoidthattermasofnow.
Intheshorttermatleast,TurkeyscredibilityandvalueasaNATOallylooksseverely
diminished.Thearmy,navyandairforcearenowundergoingthethirdmassivepurgeofthe
officercorps,aftertheErgenekonandBalyoz(sledgehammer)(politicallymotivatedpurgesof
themilitaryin2007-2013,jointlyorchestratedbyErdoganwiththeGlenistnetworksee
below).
TheUnitedStatesnowrisksaforfeitofitsremaininginfluenceinTurkey.Erdoganandhis
followersblametheputschontheU.S.-basedclericFetullahGlenandhiscovertnetworkin
Turkey,demandingGlensextradition.Legally,theGlenistsinvolvementintheputschisfar
fromproven.Politically,however,thedecisivefactsarethattheU.S.needsTurkey
regardlessofhowthishappenedmorethantheotherwayaroundthatRussiahasmuch
moretoofferasaneconomicpartnertoTurkeyandthatErdoganandhisfollowers
implacablypursuetheGlenistmovementastheirmainenemy,withoutappreciatingU.S.legal
technicalities.TheysimplyholdtheUnitedStatesresponsibleforharboringthemovements
leaderandhisoperatingbase.TopU.S.officialsinitiallyindicatedthattheU.S.wouldnot,and
couldnot,extraditeGlentoTurkey.TheTurkishpro-ErdogandailySabah,however,has
suggestedthatGlenbedeportedtoathirdcounty,asaface-savingsolutionforall
concerned,andeventhatWashingtonwouldconsiderdiscussingwithAnkarathepossibilityof
extradition(Sabah,July20,21).
Atthispoint,theGlenissuecouldmakeorbreakU.S.-Turkeycooperation.Relationscould
deterioratefurtherifaresolutionoftheGlenissueisdelayedbyU.S.presidentialelection.
U.S.influencewithErdogansgovernmentseemsnowatanall-timelow.Forseveraldays
afterthecoupattempt,Turkishauthoritiesdisruptedsomeofthenormaldailyworkatthe
Incirlikairbase,whichtheUnitedStatesregardsasitsmostvaluedassetinTurkey.Mutual
alienationwillincreasefurtherifErdoganproceedswithanindiscriminatecrackdownon
legitimatepoliticalopponentsandamassesevenmorepersonalpowerunconstitutionally.In
thatcase,theUnitedStatesmightrespondwithpublicremonstrations,andPutinwouldexploit
therift.
TurkeysrapprochementwithRussiaseemsimminent,drivenlargelybyTurkeyseconomic
interestsanddependenceonmassiveRussian-generatedrevenuesTurkishexportsofgoods
andservicestoRussia,RussiantourismtoTurkeybutalsopartlymotivatedbyTurkeys
unprecedentedvulnerabilityinthesouth.There,Russianforceshaveentrenchedthemselvesin
Syria,shoringupErdogansenemyBasharal-Assad,whileU.S.-armedSyrianKurdsare
settingupdefactocantonsinthevicinityofTurkeysKurdish-populatedterritory,infuriating
Ankara.
WithU.S.influencecurrentlyatanall-timelowinTurkey,ErdoganturningtoRussiafor
supportfromapositionofunprecedentedTurkishvulnerability,turmoilinstateinstitutions,and
destabilizedarmedforces,TurkeycannotbeexpectedtoconsiderproposalsforNATO-led
securityarrangementsintheBlackSearegion.
Atthispoint,theinterestedNATOmembercountriescoulddotheirbesttoprecludeanother
Blackseafor-type,inclusivemaritimesecuritysolutionwithRussia.Thiswouldachieve
neithersecuritynorconfidencebuilding.RussiaspositionisconvergentwithTurkeys
positioninrecentdecades.RussiatoleratesexercisesandportvisitsintheBlackSeaby
warshipsofindividualNATOnon-ripariancountries.Butitopposesamultinationalformatthat
wouldincludewarshipsofnon-ripariancountrieswhileexcludingthoseofriparianRussia.
--VladimirSocor
MissileDefenseinKoreaFurtherRoilsUS-RussianRelations
EuropeisnottheonlytheaterofacutediscordbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStatesnoris
theallegedmilitarizationoftheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)theonlyissuethat
angersMoscowinthiscontext.RussianireoverUSpolicyalsofocuseson,andperhaps
evenprioritizes,theadventofmissiledefensesinbothEuropeandAsiaasathreattoRussian
interests.Inparticular,MoscowhasvoicedangeratthejointUSSouthKoreandecisionto
emplacetheTerminalHighAltitudeAreaDefense(THAAD)missiledefensenetworkinSouth
Koreatodefendit(andJapan)againstpotentiallyincomingNorthKoreanmissiles,either
conventionalornuclear.AmajorreasonforRussianoppositiontothisdeploymentisthat
THAADsX-bandradarcanspotmissilelaunchesasfaras2,000kmawayand,interminal
mode,atadistanceof600km.Hence,SouthKoreanoperatorswillbeabletoseeRussian
missilelaunchesinSiberiaandtheRussianFarEast(RT,AsiaTimes,July8).
RussianoppositiontomissiledefenseinEastAsiasharescommonrootswiththeequally(if
notmore)staunchoppositiontosuchdeploymentsinEurope,goingbackadecadeifnot
more.Notsurprisingly,therefore,Russianofficials,includingtheRussianambassadorto
Seoul,AlexanderTimonin,havegoneonrecordtosaythatTHAADisadirectthreatto
Russiassecurity(SputnikNews,July11).
BeijingresolutelyechoesMoscowsvociferoushostilitytothedeploymentofTHAAD
batteriesinEastAsia.RussiaandChinasjointoppositiontoTHAADalsoderivesfromthe
factthatamissiledefensesystemisbelievedbybothgovernmentstobeabletonegatetheir
owncapabilities(orsimplythreat)tolaunchconventionalornuclearmissilesagainsttheUS,
JapanorSouthKorea.Inotherwords,itdeprivesthemofeithertheoptionofafirststrikeor
ofasecond-strikeretaliationandthusupsetstheirconceptsofbothcrisisstabilityand
strategicstability.BothsidessignedadeclarationonstrategicstabilityduringPresident
VladimirPutinslastvisittoBeijing.Thedocumentlinksnucleararmsreductiontothebalance
ofpowersinconventionalarmsandnon-interferenceindomesticaffairs.Hence,toMoscow
andBeijing,THAADsemplacementdirectlycontravenestheirjointapproach(Vedomosti,
July12).
CertainRussianwritersarguethatbyplacingmissiledefensesinSouthKoreathatdeployment
willsomehowcontributetothefurtherdestabilizationoftheregionandgoadorprovoke
NorthKoreaintoevenmoreunacceptablesteps(Interfax,July8).Yet,suchanargument
disregardsthefactthatitwasNorthKoreasalreadyoutrageousstepsinbothconventional
andnuclearmissileprogramsthathaddriventheSouthKoreangovernmenttoaccept
THAADinthefirstplace.NordoRussianwritersseemtotakeintoaccountthelikely
probabilitythatadefenselessSouthKoreawouldinviteevenmoretroublefromitsbelligerent
northernneighbor.Nevertheless,manyRussianexpertshaveadoptedtheabove-cited
attitudedespitethefactthatatleastsomeoftheircolleaguesacknowledgethatthesituationin
theKoreanpeninsulais,infact,(tousetheirword)boiling(RossiyskayaGazeta,March9).
Indeed,KonstantinKosachev,theheadoftheFederationCouncils(upperchamberofthe
Russianparliament)ForeignAffairsCommittee,claimedNorthKoreanbehaviorismerely
beingusedasapretextforSouthKoreasdecision,whichitselfwillendupprovokingNorth
Koreaintoevenmoreriskysteps(Interfax,July8).This,ofcourse,isaperfectexampleof
blamingthevictim.
ItappearsthatMoscowseesnoreasonforTHAADdeploymentstotheregion,because,
afterall,NorthKoranmissilelaunchesdonotthreatenRussia.Andthisattitudepersists
regardlessofthefactthatsuchNorthKoreanmissilescouldbearmedwithnuclearwarheads,
thusviolatinginternationaltreatiesandresolutionstowhichRussiaisaparty,suchasthe
NonproliferationTreatyandinnumerableUnitedNationsresolutionsonPyongyangsnuclear
weaponsandballisticmissiletests.AndevenifthesetestsareundesirableforRussia,
MoscowisstillnotwillingtoacknowledgethatSouthKoreaandJapanhavetherightto
defendthemselvesagainstunacceptableandparticularlyconsequentialthreatslikemissilesand
nuclearweapons(Interfax,July9).
Finally,beyondallthespeciousorself-servingargumentsadvancedbyRussianspokesmen,it
seemsthatwhatmightbemostalarmingtoMoscowandtoBeijingisthefactthatbyits
decisiontohostTHAADelementsonitsterritory,SouthKoreahasreaffirmeditsclose
cooperationwiththeUSmilitary.Furthermore,theyseeSeoulasgoingbackonitsprevious
assurancesthatitwouldnotjointheUSBallisticMissileDefense(BMD)program.
Therefore,asKosachevobserved,weandourChinesecolleagueswillhavetorespondto
thismovethatdiminishesregionalstabilityandtheglobalbalance.Inotherwords,the
presenceofTHAADinKoreafurthercementstheSouthKoreanUSalliancewhiledriving
RussiaandChinaclosertogether(Interfax,July8).
WhatallthisultimatelymeansisthatinitshostilitytowardWashington,theKremlinhas
becomeblindtotheconclusionsofitsownanalysts.Namely,theRussiangovernmenthas
becomeideologicallydismissiveofthenotionthatNorthKoreasbehaviorissoprovocative
thatitsneighborshavehadtomakehighlyconsequentialandunprecedenteddecisionsto
defendthemselves.NordoesMoscowappearreadytoadmitthatSino-Russian
encouragementofPyongyangortheirtendencytoblameWashingtonandSeoul(ifnotTokyo)
firstmerelybringsaboutwhattheyhavemostfearedsincethetimemissiledefenseinAsia
becameanissue:THAADisbutasymbolofthedevelopingsecurityintegrationamongSouth
Korea,JapanandtheUS.TheconsequencesofMoscowsstancearealreadymaking
themselvesfeltregionally,particularlyinthedeclineofRussiantiestoSouthKorea
(Valdaiclub.com,July19)anothernailinthecoffinofRussiasso-calledpivottoAsia.
--StephenBlank
Chechnya.
years.
--MairbekVatchagaev
Belarus:ChangeIsintheOffing
TheevolvingpoliticaldynamicsofBelarusarecausinganunprecedentedshiftinpolicystances
andviewpointsthatwereheretoforeconsideredimmovable.Thus,someoftheopinionsthat
usedtoberoutinelyassociatedwiththeWest-friendlyoppositionaretodayoftenbeing
embracedbythegovernmentitself.Suchpolicyreversalsincludetheupcomingparliamentary
elections,majorexternaleventsliketheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)
WarsawSummit(July89),aswellaseconomicreform.
Thefirstphaseofpreparationsfortheelections(scheduledforSeptember11,2016)i.e.,
theformationofregionalandlocalelectoralcommissionsandtheregistrationoftheso-called
initiativegroups(IG)topromotecandidateshascometoanend.Thenon-governmental
organization(NGO)HumanRightsWatchersforFreeElectionsobservedinitsreportthat
theoverwhelmingnumberoftheIGsonbehalfofthemembersoftheoppositionhavebeen
registered(Tut.by,July12).ConsideringthattheBelarusianHouseofRepresentatives(lower
houseofparliament)has110seats,onaveragefourcandidateswillcompeteforoneseat
(BelarusSegodnya,July9).
TheEuropeancountrieshavemadesomeconcessionstoBelarus,thechairwomanofthe
CentralElectoralCommission,LidiyaErmoshina,uncharacteristicallyobserved.Buttheyare
temporaryandcontingentontheparliamentaryelections.Andthatmeansthatthefutureofour
countryandthefutureofournationaleconomydependuponhowwellwecarryoutthis
campaign,asallfinancialprojectshavebeenpostponeduntilSeptember11(Tut.by,July14).
Ontheradicalsideoftheopposition,theusualdilemmaiswhethertoparticipateinthe
electionsatall.Thistime,thenon-participationappealwasauthoredbyPavelUsov,inwhose
opinion,underthecurrentsituation,theelectionsareimbuedwithlies,andsoparticipatingin
themistoallowtheseliestostriketheirroots(BelorusskiiPartizan,July11).Usovsview
wasconfrontedbyanevenmoreprominentopposition-mindedpundit.AccordingtoValer
KarbalevichwhoisbasedinMinskbutworksforRadioLiberty,Usovundulyassumedthe
roleofamoralpreachermoreappropriateforclergythanforsomeonewhodispenseshis
advicetopoliticians.Therearenopoliticswithoutcompromises.Socallinguponthe
oppositiontorejectanycompromisewiththeauthoritiesisanabsurdity.Tobesure,the
problemisthatthepowersthatbethemselvesdonotwantcompromise,butthatisatotally
differentmatter,remarksKarbalevich(Svaboda.org,July13).
Thelatterassertion,however,mayalsobecalledintoquestion.Casesinpointarethewayin
whichtheNATOWarsawSummithasbeencommenteduponbythemajorBelarusiandaily,
BelarusSegodnya,aswellasthemostrecentappraisalofthereform-mindedmembersofthe
governmentinMinsk.Asfortheformer,thearticleinBelarusSegodnyareflectsasurprisingly
evenhandedassessmentoftheconfrontationbetweentheNorthAtlanticAllianceandRussia:
NATOaccusesRussiaofaggravatingthesituation,whereasRussiaaccusesNATO.The
rhetorictheyuseisthesame,andthereferencesarethesameaswell:forexample,tothefact
thatthemilitaryexercisesarecarriedoutontheirrespectiveterritories.Thesamewordsare
pronouncedtotheeffectthattheywerenottheinitiatorsofanewcoldwar,butnowthey
haveto[builduptheirdefenses],andthelike(BelarusSegodnya,July12).Atthesametime,
intheirdiscussionofthepossibleconsequencesoftheNATOsummitforBelarus,the
opposition-mindedcommentatorsobservethatPresidentAlyaksandrLukashenkadoesnot
fulfilthedirectcommandsfromtheKremlinandthatattachmenttoRussiaisnotamatterofhis
choiceratheritiscontingentonBelarusseconomicimperatives.Afterall,Russiaisthe
principalmarketforBelarussmachine-building,whilealternativemarketsarelacking
(Svaboda.org,July10).
Bythesametoken,Minskswillingnesstocompromisemayratherbeendorsedonthebasis
ofArtyomShraibmansarticleforMoscowsCarnegieCenter.ItisprovocativelytitledWhy
doesLukashenkaneedareform-mindedgovernment?Shraibman,affiliatedwiththeMinsk-
basedprivately-ownednewsportalTut.by,aversthattheleadingpositionsinthegovernment
areheldbyliberaleconomistssuchastheheadoftheNationalBankPavelKallaur,vice
premierVassilyMatyushevsky,anddeputychairofthePresidentialAdministrationNikolai
Snopkov.TheyandthenowformereconomicadvisortoPresidentLukashenka,KirillRudyi
(whohasjustbeenappointedambassadortoChina),havemanagedtostabilizethecurrency
marketbyconductingarigidmonetarypolicyandintroducingafloatingexchangerateforthe
Belarusianruble.Theyhavebeen,sofarfruitlessly,proddingLukashenkatobeginthekey
phaseofstructuralreform,thatis,tocurtailsubsidizingtheloss-makingstate-runindustrial
giantsandtoprivatizethem.TheparallelsbetweenthereformersintodaysBelaruswiththe
ChicagoBoysunderChilesAugustoPinochet(1970s1980s)andaliberaleconomicteam
underFranciscoFrancoinlate-1950sSpainsuggestthemselves.Buttheseparallelshaveone
flaw:unlikePinochetandFranco,Lukashenkaisadevoutsocialist,sohekeepsonscolding
hisgovernmentforproposingtheideaswhoseimplementationisfraughtwithnegativesocial
outcomes.SowhydoesLukashenkakeepthosepeopleaswellastheleadingfiguresinthe
MinistryofForeignAffairswhoaresucceedingintheirpursuitofaneven-handedforeign
policy?Shraibmansresponseisthatallofthemaretrueprofessionals,whereastheattempts
toresolveBelaruseconomicproblemsbyresortingtotheoldMarxistsfromtheeconomic
departmentsofBelarusiancollegeshavefailed.Theseprofessionalscanalsousethesame
professionallanguagespokenbytheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).Shraibman
observesthatalthoughthecurrentpoliticalelitesofBelarusaremorecohesiveandunitedthan
inCentralAsianautocracies,thecontinuingdegradationoftheeconomyandthefactthat
economicliberalsareyoungerthantheirwell-entrencheddirigistecounterpartsmaybeasign
ofthefutureriftwithintheelite(Carnegie.ru,July13).
Regardlessofthepotentialsplits,however,Minsksreadinesstoembracemultifacetedchange
alreadyseemstobeafactoflife.Onlyinertiaandarelianceonoutdatedstereotypesmay
preventanaccurateassessmentofthissituation.ThecurrentBelaruspoliciesoftheUnited
StatesandtheEuropeanUnionhave,inpart,respondedtothatreadiness.Butevenmore
definitiveandfine-tunedresponsesarecalledfor.
--GrigoryIoffe
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Senttime: 07/22/201602:21:27AM
To: teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.com>
Subject: Re:Re:Trump
Article5
ThePartiesagreethatanarmedattackagainstoneormoreoftheminEuropeorNorthAmericashallbe
consideredanattackagainstthemallandconsequentlytheyagreethat,ifsuchanarmedattackoccurs,eachof
them,inexerciseoftherightofindividualorcollectiveself-defencerecognisedbyArticle51oftheCharterofthe
UnitedNations,willassistthePartyorPartiessoattackedbytakingforthwith,individuallyandinconcertwiththe
otherParties,suchactionasitdeemsnecessary,includingtheuseofarmedforce,torestoreandmaintainthe
securityoftheNorthAtlanticarea.
AnysucharmedattackandallmeasurestakenasaresultthereofshallimmediatelybereportedtotheSecurity
Council.SuchmeasuresshallbeterminatedwhentheSecurityCouncilhastakenthemeasuresnecessaryto
restoreandmaintaininternationalpeaceandsecurity.
OnFri,Jul22,2016at5:07AM,teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.com>wrote:
SentfrommySamsungdevice
--------Originalmessage--------
From:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
Date:22/07/201608:41(GMT+00:00)
To:PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>
Cc:kyle.wilson@anu.edu.au,s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,ElizabethTeague
<Teagueeliza@aol.com>,r.connolly@bham.ac.uk,silvana.malle@univr.it,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,
JNixey@chathamhouse.org
Subject:Re:Trump
IfIwereaBaltmybloodwouldruncold.
Article5isnotamandatoryobligationtouseforce.IfaNATOmemberisattacked,eachoftheothersisobligedtotake'such
actionasitdeemsnecessary,includingtheuseofarmedforce'.IfTrumpdecidedthattheuseofforceisnot
necessary,hewouldbewithintheletterofthetreaty.Renegeisperhapsthewrongwordtouse.Hewouldofcoursebefar
fromthetreaty'spoliticalintention.
DuringtheColdWarthequestionofwhetherAmericawouldinfactcouldtotheiraidifattackedwasaconstantworryofthe
Europeans.DeGaullethoughttheymightwellnot,anddevisedFrenchpolicyaccordingly.
ThestrikingthingaboutallsuchcommentsisthattheyassumeaTrumppresidencyisarealpossibility.Thistimelastyearanyone
whothoughthemightgetthenominationwaslaughedoutofcourt.
WehaveahighlyintelligentandvocalChineseladystayinatpresent.IaskedherwhatwastheoriginofthefamousChinese
curse.Shesaidshedneverheardofit.
On21Jul2016,at17:42,PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>wrote:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-21/trump-puts-america-s-allies-on-notice
Incasenotseenandofinterest--anotherreasonnottobecheerful.
Phil
SentfrommyiPad
From: teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.com>
Senttime: 07/22/201602:07:46AM
Subject: Fwd:Re:Trump
SentfrommySamsungdevice
--------Originalmessage--------
From:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
Date:22/07/201608:41(GMT+00:00)
To:PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>
Cc:kyle.wilson@anu.edu.au,s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,ElizabethTeague
<Teagueeliza@aol.com>,r.connolly@bham.ac.uk,silvana.malle@univr.it,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,
JNixey@chathamhouse.org
Subject:Re:Trump
IfIwereaBaltmybloodwouldruncold.
Article5isnotamandatoryobligationtouseforce.IfaNATOmemberisattacked,eachoftheothersisobligedtotake'such
actionasitdeemsnecessary,includingtheuseofarmedforce'.IfTrumpdecidedthattheuseofforceisnot
necessary,hewouldbewithintheletterofthetreaty.Renegeisperhapsthewrongwordtouse.Hewouldofcoursebefar
fromthetreaty'spoliticalintention.
DuringtheColdWarthequestionofwhetherAmericawouldinfactcouldtotheiraidifattackedwasaconstantworryofthe
Europeans.DeGaullethoughttheymightwellnot,anddevisedFrenchpolicyaccordingly.
ThestrikingthingaboutallsuchcommentsisthattheyassumeaTrumppresidencyisarealpossibility.Thistimelastyearanyone
whothoughthemightgetthenominationwaslaughedoutofcourt.
WehaveahighlyintelligentandvocalChineseladystayinatpresent.IaskedherwhatwastheoriginofthefamousChinesecurse.
Shesaidshedneverheardofit.
On21Jul2016,at17:42,PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>wrote:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-21/trump-puts-america-s-allies-on-notice
Incasenotseenandofinterest--anotherreasonnottobecheerful.
Phil
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/21/201608:54:58AM
FW:InanexclusiveinterviewwiththeNYTTRUMPlaysouthisDuginesquevisionofa"FORTRESSAMERICA""DonaldTrumpsets
Subject:
CONDITIONSfordefendingNATOalliesagainstattack,"nytimes.com,7/20
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,July21,20168:55AM
Subject:InanexclusiveinterviewwiththeNYTTRUMPlaysouthisDuginesquevisionofa"FORTRESSAMERICA""DonaldTrumpsets
CONDITIONSfordefendingNATOalliesagainstattack,"nytimes.com,7/20
TrumpontheeveofacceptingtheRepublicannominationforpresident,saidWednesdaythatifhe
wereelectedhewouldnotpressureTurkeyorotherauthoritarianalliesaboutconductingpurgesof
theirpoliticaladversariesorcrackingdownoncivillibertiesDuringa45minuteconversation,he
explicitlyraisedNEWquestionsabouthiscommitmenttoautomaticallydefendNATOalliesiftheyare
attacked,sayinghewouldfirstlookattheircontributionstotheallianceAskedaboutRussias
threateningactivitiesthathaveunnervedthesmallBalticstates[membersofNATO]Mr.Trumpsaid
thatifRussiaattackedthem,hewoulddecidewhethertocometotheiraidONLYafterreviewing
whetherthosenationshavefulfilledtheirobligationstous.
And:JenniferRUBIN,TRUMPproveshesaPUTINLAPDOG,washingtonpost.com,7/21
[Trump]essentiallyrepudiatedourNATOobligations,whichcallonustoprovidesupportunder
ArticleVifaNATOmemberisattackedWellonlydoso,hesays,ifwethinkthememberhasfulfilled
itsobligationsHedmerelyprefertorespectourtreatyobligations.Trumphasareputationin
businessforrenegingondeals;hiswordisneverhisbond.Ifheselected,theUnitedStateswillthen
havethatrap.
And:LeonidBERSHIDSKY,TRUMPputsAmericasalliesonnotice,
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/article/20160721/trumpputsamericas_alliesonnotice
TrumpsapproachwouldmeanESTONIAwouldbetheonlyBalticnationtoqualifyforUS
interventionincaseofa[Russian]attack:Itcomplieswiththe[NATO]treatysrequirementthat
countriesspend2percentoftheireconomicoutputondefense.LATVIAandLITHUANIAhavepledged
tocatchupinthenextseveralyears,butiftheyareattacked,say,nextJANUARY,thedayafter
PresidentTrumpsinauguration,RussianPresidentPutinCOULDPROBABLYHAVETHEM.
And:PENCEjustsaidTrumpwoulddefendourallies.TRUMPjustsaidtheOPPOSITE,slate.com,
7/20
And:WallStreetJournalofficialeditorial:TheGOPsPUTINCONFUSION,WSJ,7/21,p.A12
Wedoubtthat[Paul]Manafortsclientlistdictatedthe[weak]UKRAINEPLANK[intheParty
Platform],butthereasonmaybeworse:Mr.TrumpseemstohaveanaveviewofMr.Putin,having
saidthathethinkshecandobusinesswiththeKremlinstrongmanwhoinvadedCrimeaandisbacking
rebelsfightingKievstroopsinsouthernUkraine.

And:AndersASLUND,RememberingtheformerSovietUnionstopinvestigativejournalist[Pavel
SHEREMET],atlanticcouncil.org,7/20
And:ThePutiniteKomsomolskayaPravda:TheUkrainianspecialserviceslikelykilledSHEREMETas
theydidhisclosefriendBorisNEMTSOV:http://www.kp.ru/daily/26557/3573879/
And:OppositionleaderIlyaYASHINThemainversionisthattheassassinationofSHEREMETwas
organizedbytheRussianspecialservices.Preciselythatversion,frommypointofview,isthemost
probablehttp://echo.msk.ru/blog/yashin/1805742echo/
And:MarkGALEOTTIandAnnaArutunyan,Commentary:HybridBusinesstherisksintheKremlins
WEAPONIZATIONoftheeconomy,http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27869714.html
From: WillYouVote(viaTurnoutPAC.org)<admin@turnoutpac.org>
Senttime: 07/21/201602:41:25PM
Subject: SIGNIwillvoteagainstTrump
IpledgetovoteDEMOCRATthisNovember.
Clickheretosign
Friends,ifyouvebeenfollowingtheRepublicanConvention,youreashorrified
asweare.
DonaldTrumphasusedhisnationalspotlighttoinciteracism,sexism,and
intolerance.AndnowtheRepublicanPartylegitimizedhisbigotryby
officiallymakinghimtheirnomineeforPresident.
Tonight,Trumpsspeechactsasaclearreminderthatourwork--gettingmore
DemocratstovoteonElectionDay--couldnotbemoreimportant.
SopleasetakethepledgetovoteforDemocratsthisfall:
ClickheretopledgetovoteforDemocratson
ElectionDay
Rightnowwerefightinganuphillbattle--TrumpalreadyreceivedaRECORD-
BREAKINGnumberofvotesthisprimary.
Thatswhyweneedyourhelptomakesurehedoesntwin.Please
pledgetovotetoday:
http://go.turnoutpac.org/Pledge
Thanksforeverythingyoudo,
-TheProgressiveTurnoutProject
ProgressiveTurnoutProject
P.O.Box215
Northbrook,IL60065-0215
PaidforbytheProgressiveTurnoutProjectandnotauthorizedbyanycandidateor
candidate'scommittee.
Thismessagewassentto:robertotto25@gmail.com|Changeorupdateyouremailaddressbyclickinghere.
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Democratstothepolls.Tolearnmoreclickhere.
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Senttime: 07/20/201609:05:39AM
FW:[LATENITERUN---WITHOL'BCCBUDSCHIPPINGIN][MB]Fwd:RUcheatedOlympicswithplotstraightoutofaspynovel|
Subject: DMO[MOJO]RU'sGazpromLoses3.4BCourtBattletoUA.[MK/3X]UARep.(E.Marchuk)inMinsk:Thereare702RUtanksin
DonbasI
Sent:Tuesday,July19,20168:44PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[LATENITERUN---WITHOL'BCCBUDSCHIPPINGIN][MB]Fwd:RUcheatedOlympicswithplotstraightoutofaspynovel|
DMO[MOJO]RU'sGazpromLoses3.4BCourtBattletoUA.[MK/3X]UARep.(E.Marchuk)inMinsk:Thereare702RUtanksin
DonbasIt...
Date:Tue,Jul19,2016at9:17PM
Subject:RussiacheatedOlympicswithplotstraightoutofaspynovel|DailyMailOnline
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-3696289/Russia-cheated-world-plot-straight-spy-novel-state-
sponsored-doping-scandal-exposed.html
RussiacheatedOlympicswithplotstraightoutofa
spynovel:HowPutin'ssecretpoliceused'mouse
hole'inlabwalltoswapsteroid-lacedurinewith
cleansamplesinstate-sponsoreddopingscandal
Ittookjust57daystocompilebutthereportfromCanadianlawyerRichardMcLarenhasblownwideopenthe
biggestdopingscandalinhistoryandwillchangethefaceofsportforever.
Damninginitsreachanddevastatinginitsdetail,itconfirmsthestate-sponsoreddopinginRussiansportmany
suspected,butthetentaclesofthiscampaignofcheatingstretchfurtherthananybodyfeared.Givenanother57days,
whoknowswhatMcLarenandhisteammighthaveuncovered?Afterallthisis,heclaims,justathinsliceofthepie.
Insectionsthatreadlikeaspynovel,therearetalesofaRussiansecretserviceagentwhoposedasasewerengineer
togetintoatestinglaboratoryandswapsamplesofadrugscocktailnicknamedDuchessusedbyathletesbefore
theLondonOlympicsandsecretagentswhoaddedsalttocleansamplestomakethemmatchthechemical
compositionoftheoriginalsthathadbeendestroyed.
CanadianlawyerRichardMcLaren'sreporthasblownwideopenthebiggestdopingscandalinhistory
WADAreportoutlinesallegeddopingcover-upsystemusedinSochi
JournalistslookthroughMcLaren'sreportduringMonday'sbriefinginToronto
AlmosteverysportinRussiaisimplicatedinsystemicdopingandthecover-up,leadingtheWorldAnti-Doping
AgencytocallforabanonallthecountrysathletesattheRioOlympicsandParalympics.
TheInternationalOlympicCommitteehasnotruledthisoutand,withtheOpeningCeremonyjust17daysaway,they
areundergreatpressuretomakeadecisionwhentheirpresidentThomasBachchairsateleconferencetorespondto
thereportonTuesday.
Theymaychoosetoleavethenextmoveinthehandsofindividualsportingfederations,whichwouldwidelybe
consideredacop-out.
TheUnitedStatesAnti-DopingAgency,headedbyTravisTygart,hasjoinedtheclamourforatotalban.The
McLarenreporthasconcludedamind-blowinglevelofcorruptionwithinbothRussiansportandgovernmentthat
goesrighttothefieldofplayand,mostimportantly,ourheartsgoouttoathletesfromallovertheworldwhowere
robbedoftheirOlympicdreams,saidTygart.
TheIOCisconsideringbanningRussiafromtheRioGames
TheUnitedStatesAnti-DopingAgency,headedbyTravisTygart,hascalledforatotalOlympicbanon
Russia
MariaSavinova,whowontheLondon2012800mfinal,becameembroiledinadopingscandalin2014
Wemustcometogetherasaninternationalcommunity,thosewhobelieveinthespiritofOlympism,toensurethis
unprecedentedlevelofcriminalityneveragainthreatensthesportswecherish.
ThereportwasorderedafterformerMoscowandSochianti-dopinglaboratorybossGrigoryRodchenkovclaimed
hecolludedwithRussiansecurityagentstoreplaceurinesamplesthatwouldhavefaileddrugstestswithclean
samplescollectedmonthsbefore.
ThereportfoundhisaccounttobetruthfulbeyondreasonabledoubtandthatapillaroftheRussiandoping
programmewasfalsifyingpositivesamples.
Inthissystem,deputyministerofsportYuriNagornykh,appointedin2010bythenprimeministerandnowpresident
VladimirPutin,actedasjudgeandjury.AllpositivetestswerereportedtoNagornykhandhewoulddecidewho
shouldbenefitfromacover-upandwhowouldnotbeprotected.
YuriNagornykh,appointeddeputyministerofsportin2011,wasakeyfigureinRussia'sdopingcover-up
Between2012and2015,atleast312positivetestswerecoveredupacross28sports.Overalltherewere577
positivesamples,including139inathletics,117inweightlifting,26incycling,and11infootballandrowing.Almost
allwinterandsummerOlympicsportsbenefitedfromthecover-up,althoughnoindividualathleteshavebeennamed.
Thestate-sponsoreddopingseeminglystemsfromRussiaspoorperformanceatthe2010WinterOlympicsin
Vancouver.
ThestrengthoffeelingwasclearincommentsmadeafterRussiasmuch-vauntedhockeyteamwerethrashed7-3by
Canadainthequarter-finals.CoachVyacheslavBykovsaid:LetsputguillotinesandscaffoldsuponRedSquare.
Wehave35peopleinthesquadletsfinishthemalloff.
PutinwasreportedlydeterminedthatRussiawouldsurgeupthemedaltableaheadofthehugelyexpensivehome
WinterOlympicsin2014andRodchenkovwastaskedwithimprovingresultsbycoveringupdoping.Hedeveloped
acocktailofbanneddrugsthatwasdifficulttodetectandwhich,heclaims,hegavetodozensofathletes.
Theanabolicsteroidsmetenolone,oralturinabolandoxandroloneweremixedwithwhiskyformenandvermouthfor
women.
IrinaRodionova,deputydirectoroftheCenterofSportsPreparationofNationalTeamsofRussia,wasinchargeof
distributingthecocktail,accordingtoRodchenkov.
NagornykhwasappointedbythenprimeministerandnowpresidentVladimirPutin(pictured)
RodionovanicknamedthecocktailDuchessafteratraditionalRussiandrink,thereportreads.DrRodchenkovs
evidenceisthatbythetimeoftheOlympicGamesinLondon,manyofRussiastopathleteswereusingthecocktail.
ThisiscorroboratedbyrecentretestingoftheLondonsamplesbytheIOC.SamplesofeightRussianathleteswere
foundtocontainmetabolitesoforalturinabol.
TheinvestigationbackedupRodchenkovsclaimsthatRussiansecretagentsreferredtoasmagiciansbydeputy
sportsministerNagornykhhadworkedoutawaytocircumventthetamper-proofbottlesduringthehomeSochi
Olympics,switchingdirtysamplesforcleanones.
McLarensentstoredsamplesfromSochitoseeifthebottleshadbeenopenedandallthebottleshadscratchesand
marks.
A'mousehole'intheSochitestinglaboratoryallowedforaurine-swappingschemetoreplacesteroid-lacedsamples,
enabledbysecretserviceagentsbreakingintotamper-proofbottles.
Claimsofbottletamperingandaddingsalttourinesamplestomakethemmorecredibleallcheckedoutafter
independentexpertanalysis,thereportfound.
From2012to2015atleast577positivetestswerecoveredupacross30differentsportsbyRussia
Russiaopenscaseagainstformeranti-dopingchief
EvgenyBlokhinoftheFSB,principalsuccessorstoRussiasKGBsecretservice,isnamedastheagentwhoposed
asasewerengineertoaccesstheSochilaboratoryduringtheOlympicsandremovethepositivesamples.
Thereportstates:BlokhinwouldtaketheBsamplebottlesawayandreturnuptotwohourslaterwiththecaps
removed.BlokhinalsobroughttheathletescleanurinefromtheFSBbuildingtothelaboratorynextdoor.Withthe
protectedathletescleanurineandtheBsamplebottlecapremoved,DrRodchenkovandhisteamwouldgotowork
onthesamplesinthedeadofnightwhentherewaslittleactivityinthelaboratory.Theathletesdirtyurinewas
disposedof.
TheprotectedathletescleanurinesamplewasadjustedforSpecificGravity(SG)bytheadditionoftablesaltor
distilledwater.ThisstepwasnecessarytoensuretheswappedcleansamplehadanSGthatwasascloseaspossible
totheSGrecordedonthedopingcontrolformatthetimetheoriginalsamplewascollectedfromtheathlete.
Thedopingprogrammewasplannedfrom2011andcontinuedthroughtheSochiWinterOlympicsin2014
ThereportalsodeterminedtheFSBwereinvolvedincoveringupdopingintherun-uptotheLondonOlympics,at
the2013athleticsWorldChampionshipsinMoscowandthe2015swimmingWorldChampionshipsinKazan.
McLaren,perhapsanticipatinghowhisreportwouldbereceivedinRussia,vehementlydefendeditscontentsand
saidhewasextremelyconfidentinitsfindings.
Withablanketbanlooming,Russiaareexpectedtoputupafight.PresidentialspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaid:
ThereisdefinitelyawiderangeoflegalmeanstoprotecttheinterestsofourathletesandRussiawillcertainlyresort
tothisarsenal,usingitinfull.
From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Subject:Russia'sGazpromLoses$3.4BillionCourtBattleInUkraine
To:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/07/14/russias-gazprom-loses-3-4-billion-court-battle-in-ukraine/#2d1360736f84
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Subject:UAWire-UkrainianrepresentativeinMinsk:Thereare702RussiantanksintheDonbas
UAWire-UkrainianrepresentativeinMinsk:Thereare702RussiantanksintheDonbas
http://uawire.org/news/marchuk-confirmed-number-of-russian-tanks-in-the-donbass
Subject:ItalycontinuessupplyingRussiawitharms-EuromaidanPress|
ItalycontinuessupplyingRussiawitharms-EuromaidanPress|
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/07/20/italy-continues-supplying-russia-with-arms/
Subject:TheRealWinnerAtTheGOPConventionIsVladimirPutin
TheRealWinnerAtTheGOPConventionIsVladimirPutin
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_578e44bae4b0a0ae97c37acd
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Subject:TopMoscowInvestigatorsDetainedOverAllegedOrganizedCrimeTies
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/russia-fsb-3-investigators-arrested/27867469.html
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Subject:KasichwarnsagainstaTrumptakeoverofGOPforeignpolicy/+
To:
KasichwarnsagainstaTrumptakeoverofGOPforeignpolicy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2016/07/19/kasich-warns-against-a-trump-takeover-of-gop-foreign-
policy/
...
HeattackedthepresumptivenomineescallfortheUnitedStatestoreduceitsroleinNATOandletEuropeanallies
takeovermoreoftheirownsecurity.WethinkNATOdoesntmatter?Arewekidding?Kasichsaid.
KasichsmostimpassionedindirectattackwasdirectedatTrumpsviewsonRussia,UkraineandVladimirPutin.He
criticizedtheideathattheUnitedStatesshoulddisregardRussianbadbehaviorandworkwithRussiamore.
HereferencedmyMondayreportabouthowtheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektoremove
languageintheGOPplatformthatwouldhavecalledforlethaldefensiveweaponsforUkraine.TheTrump
staffweakenedthatlanguagetoappropriateassistance.
AslongasImbreathingair,ImforarmingtheUkrainianswhowanttofightforfreedom,saidKasich.Soitmust
havebeenaterriblemistakethatapparentlyarmingtheUkrainewassomehowleftoutoftheRepublicanplatform.
TheUnitedStatesshouldpushbackagainstRussianaggressionandnotplayintoPutinsstrategytoweaken
relationshipsbetweentheUnitedStatesandEuropeancountries,accordingtoKasich.
FromRU"withlove"?
WikiLeakstoreleaseTurkeypowerstructuredocuments
WikiLeakssaiditwouldpublishdataonTurkeyspoliticalpowerstructurefollowingthefailedcoupattempt.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/wikileaks-release-turkey-power-structure-documents-160718131206187.html
Senttime: 07/20/201609:37:33AM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceoftheROC.
Subject: [JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Attachments: GOP2016platformDRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_1468872234.pdf
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceofthe
ROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsinthe
serviceoftheROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"
themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORESTORIES.[BOPO]TroublestotheRight(US),TroublestotheLeft(CA)----
StandingintheMiddlewithU[A]!!!
-----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Jul19,2016at10:26AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheNewYorkTimes(3)
SevenUkrainianSoldiersKilledinEasternRegionsAmidSurgeinViolence
ByREUTERSJULY19,2016,7:48A.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory
KIEVSevenUkrainiantroopswerekilledinthepast24hoursduringfightingwithpro-Russianseparatists,makingJulythe
deadliestmonthfortheUkrainianmilitaryinnearlyayearafterasharpincreaseinviolence.
Another14werewounded,amilitaryspokesmansaid.ClashesinUkraine'seasternregionshavesurgedinspiteofan18-month-
old'Minsk'ceasefiredeal.Internationalmonitorshaveexpresseduneaseatrecentescalation.

UkrainianmilitaryspokesmanAndriyLysenkosaidseparatistshadbeenfiringhigh-calibermortarsatgovernmentpositions,naming
therebel-controlledtownofHorlivkaandtheoutskirtsofrebel-heldLuhanskasparticularhotspots.
"Onaverageeveryattacklastsforatleastthirtyminutesandcanlastforuptotwohours.That'showitwasyesterday,"Lysenko
said,withoutgivingdetailsonhowthesoldierswerekilled.
MeanwhileseparatistofficialsaccusedUkrainiantroopsofintensifyingshellingonrebel-heldterritory,separatistnewssiteDAN
reported.
TheMinskagreementwasmeanttostopthefighting,whichhaskilledover9,400sinceApril2014,butmanyofthedeal'spoints-
includingthecompletewithdrawalheavyweaponsfromthefrontline-haveyettobefullyimplemented.
OnJuly12,thechiefmonitoroftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,expresseduneaseoverthe
recentsharpincreaseinfighting.
Hedrewattentiontothecontinuedthreattocivilianlife,highlightingtherecentdeathsintwoseparateincidentsinDonetskregion
offiveyoungboys,threeofthembrothers.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsandAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyRaissaKasolowsky)
RussiaSaysCatchesOSCEEmployeeSpyingforUkraine
ByREUTERSJULY18,2016,1:39P.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWRussia'sFSBsecurityservicesaidonMondayithadcaughtanemployeeoftheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-
operationinEuropespyingforUkrainebypassingonsensitivemilitaryinformationaboutpro-Kremlinseparatists.
TheOSCEismonitoringafragileceasefireineasternUkrainewherepro-RussianseparatistsandUkrainiangovernmentforcesstill
regularlyexchangefire.
Itsopinioncounts,notleastbecauseGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhassaidshewantsRussiatodomoretoresolvethecrisis
beforetheEuropeanUnionconsiderswhethertoliftsanctionsimposedonMoscowoveritsactionsinUkraine.
TheFSBsaidinastatementithadclearevidencethatUkraine'sSBUintelligenceservicewasillegallyusingtheOSCEtogather
militaryinformation.
ItsaidanOSCEtranslator,ArtyomShestakov,aUkrainiannational,hadbeenrecruitedbytheSBUandhadpassedon
informationaboutthemovementsofmilitaryconvoys,troopnumbers,andthemobilephonenumbersofmilitarycommanders.
Inlate2015,itsaidhehadobtainedinformationaboutalocalpro-RussianCossackleaderwhowaslaterkilledbytheUkrainian
intelligenceservices.
ShestakovhadbeendetainedonRussiansoil,theFSBsaid,andhadconfessedtospying.HewasallowedtoreturntoUkraine
becausetheFSBsaidhisactionshadnotharmedRussia'sownnationalsecurity,butwasbannedfromenteringRussia,itsaid.
TheSBUdeclinedtocomment.
TheOSCE'sSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraineissuedastatementviasocialmedia,sayingitwasabletoconfirmthatoneof
itslocalemployeesineasternUkrainewastemporarilyoutofreachwhileonleave.
Itsaiditknewwherehewasandthathewassafe.Itwasfornowunabletoprovidefurtherdetails,itsaid.
(ReportingbyDmitrySolovyovinMOSCOWandNatalyaZinetsinKIEVEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
TheNewYorkTimes
RussianImagesofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17WereAltered,ReportFinds
ByANDREWE.KRAMERJULY15,2016(July16printedition)
MOSCOWAgroupofarmscontrolresearchershavedeterminedthattwoimagesreleasedbytheRussiangovernment,
ostensiblytohelpclarifywhyacivilianairlinerwasshotdowntwoyearsago,weredigitallyalteredusingPhotoshopbeforebeing
postedonline.
PartsofoneRussianmilitarysatelliteimagesimplyvanished,accordingtoresearchersattheMiddleburyInstituteforInternational
StudiesatMonterey,inCalifornia,behindasuspect-lookingcloud.
Inanotherimage,twochunky,trackedantiaircraftweaponsappearinsharperfocusthanthesurroundinglandscape,the
researcherssaidinthereportpostedonlineonFriday.
Itiscleartheimageshavebeenmodifiedoraltered,theresearcherssaid,afterrunningthephotographsthroughasuiteof
professionalsoftwareusedtodetectfakedigitalpictures,incourtproceedingsinEurope.
ThefindingishardlythefirsttodebunkimportantelementsoftheRussiangovernmentsnarrativeofwhoshotdownMalaysia
AirlinesFlight17onJuly17,2014,killingall298peopleaboard,intheworstatrocityofthewarinUkraine.
Atthetime,Russiasstatenewsagency,RIA,initiallyreportedthatRussian-backedseparatistshadshotdownaUkrainianmilitary
aircraft,butquicklybacktrackedonceitbecameclearacivilianairlinerhadbeenbroughtdown.
Russianstatetelevisiondevotedconsiderableairtimetoconspiracytheories,includingassertionsthattheUkrainiansweretryingto
shootdownPresidentVladimirV.Putinsplane,thattheplanehadbeenfilledwithdeadbodiesandcrashedinanelaborateruseto
embarrassRussia,orthattheCentralIntelligenceAgencywasbehindtheattack.
UkraineandWesterngovernmentssaythatnoneofthisistrue,andthatactive-dutyRussiansoldiersbackingtherebelsfiredonthe
airliner,perhapsmistakingitforamilitaryaircraft,asitflewfromAmsterdamtoKualaLumpur,theMalaysiancapital.
ThephotographswerepublishedonthewebsitesoftheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairsandMinistryofDefensejustdaysafter
thecrash.TheywerepresentedashavingbeentakenbyoneormoreRussianspysatellitesonJuly17,2014,aswarragedin
easternUkraine.
TheRussianpresentationassertedthataccordingtoourinformationonthedayoftheaccidenttheUkrainianarmedforces
deployedthreetofourartillerybattalionsofBuk-M1missiles,andprovidedtwosatelliteimagestosupporttheclaim.
Theanti-tamperingsoftware,though,foundthatacloudobscuringaportionofoneimagehadatonepointbeensavedusinga
differentformofdatacompressionfromtherestofthepicture.
Intheotherphotograph,showingapairofrocketlaunchersinafieldwitharoadloopingthroughit,thelaunchersareinexplicably
insharperfocusthanthesurroundingfield,accordingtothereport.AlongwithPhotoshop,otherprogramsmayalsohavebeen
used,theresearcherssaid.
Itshardtobecertainaboutwhattheyhavedone,JeffreyLewis,oneofthereportsauthors,saidofthemanipulationofthe
images.Itspossibletheyenhancedthemissilelaunchersthatwerethereorthattheycutandpastedthemin.
Theresearchersfocusonusingopen-sourceinformationtostudynuclearnonproliferation.Theyoriginallyboughtthespecialized
softwaretoanalyzeNorthKoreanpropagandaphotographs,buthavefoundotherusesforit.
Itswonderfulyoucanseewhotouchesuptheirweddingphotos,Mr.Lewissaid.Itturnsoutpeopletouchupphotosquite
alot.
AskedonFridayabouttheallegations,theRussianDefenseMinistrysaiditwouldrequirethreedaystorespond.TheMinistryof
ForeignAffairsreferredquestionstotheMinistryofDefense.

Earlier,Bellingcat,acitizen-journalismgroupusingopen-sourceinformationlikesocialmediapoststoanalyzeconflicts,had
identifiedthecloudyphotographaslikelyalteredtoobscurethedateitwastaken.
Anythingshortoftheoriginalandunalteredimages,giventhemanipulationsevidentintheslidesreleasedonline,willnaturallygive
risetoconcernsRussiadeliberatelyfabricatedevidencetoevadelegalresponsibilityforthedeathsofthepassengersandcrew,
theMontereygroupsaidinitsstudy.
TheWashingtonPost
TrumpcampaigngutsGOPsanti-RussiastanceonUkraine
ByJoshRogin
Opinions
July18at12:21PMFollow@joshrogin
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-campaign-guts-gops-anti-russia-stance-on-
ukraine/2016/07/18/98adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-
a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&tid=a_inl
TheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektomakesurethenewRepublicanplatformwontcallforgiving
weaponstoUkrainetofightRussianandrebelforces,contradictingtheviewofalmostallRepublicanforeignpolicyleadersin
Washington.
Throughoutthecampaign,TrumphasbeendismissiveofcallsforsupportingtheUkrainegovernmentasitfightsanongoing
Russian-ledintervention.Trumpscampaignchairman,PaulManafort,workedasalobbyistfortheRussian-backedformer
UkrainianpresidentViktorYanukovychformorethanadecade.
Still,RepublicandelegatesatlastweeksnationalsecuritycommitteeplatformmeetinginClevelandweresurprisedwhenthe
TrumpcampaignorchestratedasetofeventstomakesurethattheGOPwouldnotpledgetogiveUkrainetheweaponsithas
beenaskingforfromtheUnitedStates.
Insidethemeeting,DianaDenman,aplatformcommitteememberfromTexaswhowasaTedCruzsupporter,proposeda
platformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,increasingaidforUkraineand
providinglethaldefensiveweaponstotheUkrainianmilitary.
Today,thepost-ColdWaridealofaEuropewholeandfreeisbeingseverelytestedbyRussiasongoingmilitaryaggressionin
Ukraine,theamendmentread.TheUkrainianpeopledeserveouradmirationandsupportintheirstruggle.
Trumpstaffersintheroom,whoarenotdelegatesbutaretheretooverseetheprocess,intervened.Byworkingwithpro-Trump
delegates,theywereabletogettheissuetabledwhiletheydevisedamethodtorollbackthelanguage.
Onthesideline,DenmantriedtopersuadetheTrumpstaffersnottochangethelanguage,butfailed.Iwastroubledwhentheyput
asidemyamendmentandthenwatereditdown,Denmantoldme.Isaid,Whatisyourproblemwithacountrythatwantsto
remainfree?Itseemslikeasimplething.
Finally,TrumpstafferswroteanamendmenttoDenmansamendmentthatstrippedouttheplatformscallforprovidinglethal
defensiveweaponsandreplaceditwithsofterlanguagecallingforappropriateassistance.
Thatamendmentwasvotedonandpassed.WhentheRepublicanPartyreleasesitsplatformMonday,theofficialRepublicanparty
positiononarmsforUkrainewillbeatoddswithalmostallthepartysnationalsecurityleaders.
ThisisanotherexampleofTrumpbeingoutofstepwithGOPleadershipandthemainstreaminawaythatshowshewouldbe
dangerousforAmericaandtheworld,saidRachelHoff,anotherplatformcommitteememberwhowasintheroom.
Ofcourse,TrumpisnottheonlypoliticiantoopposesendinglethalweaponstoUkraine.PresidentObamadecidednotto
authorizeit,despiterecommendationstodosofromhistopEuropeofficialsintheStateDepartmentandthemilitary.TheUnited
StateshasprovidedUkrainewithnon-lethalequipmentandaid.
TrumpsviewofRussiahasalwaysbeenfriendlierthanmostRepublicans.HessaidhewouldgetalongverywellwithVladimir
PutinandcalleditagreathonorwhenPutinpraisedhim.TrumphasdonealotofbusinessinRussiaandhasbeentraveling
theresince1987.LastAugust,hesaidofUkrainejoiningNATO,Iwouldntcare.HetraveledthereinSeptember,andhetold
UkrainianstheirwarisreallyaproblemthataffectsEuropealotmorethanitaffectsus.
ForTrump,thebiggestthreattoEuropeisnotRussia,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwithhisthinking.HebelievestheUnitedStates
shouldfocusonhelpingEuropefightIslamistterrorismandopenborders,notconfrontingPutin.Hehascalledforareductionof
theU.S.commitmenttoNATO.HesimplydoesntseeRussiaasadangerousthreat.
ForDenman,theTrumpcampaignsactionsbetrayedtheU.S.commitmenttosupportingstrugglingdemocraciesaroundtheworld,
whichsheconsidersacoreRepublicanvalue.
TheUkrainianpeoplearetryingtocomeoutofthepastandstayfree.Weowetothosewhoarefightingforfreedomstilltogive
themahelpinghand,shesaid.
ImverypassionateandsupportiveoftheReaganforeignpolicyofpeacethroughstrength.
TrumptooofteninvokesRonaldReaganwhentalkingaboutAmericasroleintheworld.ButalthoughReagannegotiatedwiththe
SovietUnion,healsostooduptoRussianaggressioninEuropeanddefendeddemocraticprinciplesabroad.
Whentheplatformcomesout,RepublicanswillseehowfarfromtheReagandoctrinetheirpartyhasdrifted,thankstoTrump.
Forbes
Trump,DeferringToPutin,DeletedGOPPlatform'sCallToSupplyUkraineWithLethalDefensiveWeapons
PaulRoderickGregory
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/07/18/trump-deferring-to-putin-deleted-gop-platforms-call-to-supply-
ukraine-with-lethal-defensive-weapons/#1f440a299d32
Accordingtomultipleaccounts,theTrumpcampaignhassuccessfullyworkedbehindthescenestomakesurethenewRepublican
platformwouldnotpledgethelethaldefensiveweaponsUkrainehasbeenpleadingforfromtheUnitedStates.Trumpsforces
havetabledaplatformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,andhavesubstituted
appropriateassistanceforprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainesmilitary.Removingsanctionsandblockinglethal
militaryassistancetoUkrainearethetwoprimarygoalsofPutinsforeignpolicy.TheRepublicanplatformishandingthosegoalsto
Putinonagoldenplatter.
DespiteCongressionalapproval,theObamaadministrationhasnotsuppliedUkrainewithlethaldefensiveweaponsonthefoolish
groundsthatUkrainecannotdefeattheRussianmilitaryandthattheweaponscouldfallintothewronghands.Ofcourse,Ukraines
armycannotdefeatRussiabutanupgradedmilitarycouldimposelossesonRussiathatwoulddiscouragefurtherincursions.
RussiaswaragainstUkraineisararecaseswhereweaponswilldefinitelynotfallintothewronghands.TheUkrainianpeople,
startingfromzero,havebuiltanarmythathaslimitedRussianoccupationtopartsoftheDonbasregion.UnlikeSyriaorLibya,we
knowwhothegoodguysare.UkrainewillnothandovermoderncommunicationsgearandantitankweaponstoRussiaorthird
parties.Theyneedthemfortheirownnationalsurvival.
Inanearlieressay,IgaveninereasonswhyfellowconservativesshouldvoteforDonaldTrump,amongthemSupremeCourt
nominations,Clintonspropensitytolie,thefree-riderNATOproblem,TrumpsAmericafirstversusHillaryscitizenofthe
worldforeignpolicy,andhisunderstandingofAmericasdisenchantmentwithpoliticsasusual.Mysupportwasnotwithout
reservations.AssomeonewhofollowstheKremlinsperfidyclosely,TrumpsoffhandpraiseofPutinandhisapparentlackof
concernovertheCrimeanannexation,theinvasionofUkraine,andPutinssalvagingoftheAssadregimethroughmilitary
interventionpromptedmetowriteSevenWarningstoDonaldTrumpaboutVladimirPutin,amongthem:
Putinstarted(withoutcause)awaragainstUkrainethathaskilledmorethan10,000,wounded25,000,andmisplacedoneanda
halfmillion.SofarPutinhassufferednoconsequences,althoughhe,forthefirsttimeinpostwarhistory,alterednationalboundaries
byforce.
PutinhasdeclaredtheUnitedStatesasenemynumberonesincehisFebruary2007speechinMunich.HowwillTrumpgetalong
verywellwithanegotiatingpartner,whoseregimesveryexistencerequirestheU.S.asRussiasmajorenemy?
Putinliespubliclyandrepeatedlyaboutthemostimportantpoliticalmatters,suchastherearenoRussiantroopsinUkraine,that
theCrimeanannexationwasaspontaneousactoftheCrimeanpeople,andthataUkrainianfightershotdownMH17.Trump
complainsthatHillaryisaserialliaryethebelieveshecannegotiatewitharogueleaderwholieswithouthesitationaboutmatters
involvingthelivesofthousandsorhundredsofthousands.
PutinrunsacriminalkleptocracythatnotonlystolethenationalwealthbutlikelykilledhundredsofRussiansinpolitically-motivated
apartmentbombingsandispresumedtohaveorderedanumberofpoliticalassassinations.UnderPutin,Russiaisinthetoplistof
journalistskilledforpoliticalmotives.
Trumptoutshisskillsasasavvynegotiator,whocansizeuphisopponents.IfTrumpletsoffPutinforhiscrimesand
misadventures,herunstheriskofplayingthedupeasdidformerChancellorGerhardSchroederofGermany(Putinsstoogeon
Gazpromsboard),GeorgeW.Bush(wholookedintohissoul),andBarackObamaandHillaryClinton(Russianresetandthe
Syrianfiasco).TrumpsurelydoesnotwishtojointheseusefulfoolsoftheKremlin,butheseemsontheverge.
DonaldTrumpwillwinthepresidencyifhecomesacrossasastrongleaderbothathomeandabroad.Themostdirecttestsofhis
projectionofstrengthabroadwillbehisfightagainstterrorismandhiswillingnesstostanduptoPutin.Heseemstobefailinginthe
lattercase.
Trumphasboastedthatagoodnegotiatordoesnotsaywhatheisnotgoingtodoinadvance.Removingdefensivelethalweapons
toUkrainefromtheplatformdoesjustthat.Itisasignofaweaknegotiator.TheeyesofthenationshouldbeonarmsforUkraine
astheRepublicanconventionunfolds.IfTrumpsendsthewrongsignal,heriskshiscredentialsasastrongleader.
AtlanticCouncil(2)
UkraineNeedstoAbandonitsSovietThinkingOnceandforAll
July18,2016
ByBasilA.Kalymon
UkrainesreformeffortscontinuetosputteronwithoutanytransformativeresultsmorethantwoyearsafterformerPresident
ViktorYanukovychfledtoMoscow.Theeconomysbasicproblemshavenotyetbeenaddressed.Itisstillboggeddowninits
Sovietpast,withpopulistforcesmakingillusorypromisesthatappealtomanyvotersSoviet-eramentality.Theresultiscorruption,
inefficiency,alackofinvestmentandinnovation,budgetarystress,inflation,andeconomicstagnation.
Inordertoexperiencetransformativegrowthandprosperity,Ukrainemustradicallybreakwiththepastandthecurrentpopulist
mentalityandembracefreemarketeconomicpolicies.Suchpoliciesareatthebaseofallofthesuccessfultransformationsthat
haveoccurredinpost-communistsocieties.Inessence,whatisrequiredisarecognitionofthestateslimitedroleandanagreement
thatindividualresponsibilityandmarketforceswillguidetheeconomy.
Thisapproachwouldrequiredramaticchangestomanyoftheeconomysfundamentalsystems.
ReadMore
HowUkraineCanWintheInformationWarinaFactFreeWorld
July18,2016
ByPeterDickinson
Whatmediaoutletsdoyoutrust?FromtheBrexitreferendumandtheUSpresidentialracetoRussiasinformationwaron
Ukraine,itisbecomingincreasinglyclearthatwenowliveinafact-freeworldwhereemotionsreignsupremeandtruthisintheeye
ofthebeholder.
Thistrendfirstbecameapparentaroundthetimeofthe2003Iraqwar.Themainstreammediawasdirectlycomplicitinsomeof
themisinformationissuedduringthelead-uptotheUS-ledinvasion,shatteringpublictrustinmanyofthemostrespectedproviders
ofinformation.Meanwhile,theconspiracytheorysubculturepromotedbytheinternethasplayedanequallydevastatingrolein
underminingthesanctityoffacts.Today,counterculturewebsiteshavemovedinfromthefringestocompetewithlegacybrands,
whilemanyoftheleadingcurrentaffairsprogramsonTVare,literally,comedyshows.
ReadMore
From:<Moyehoist@aol.com>
Subject:CheckoutUKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPat
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,Staff@ukrweekly.com,Romashka1@aol.com
UKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPatriarchate
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Subject:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
RussiasFederalSecurityService(FSB)havedetainedseveralemployeesoftheMoscowdepartmentof
theRussianInvestigativeCommittee,includingdeputyheadDenisNIKANDROVTheFSBbegana
searchofthecommitteesMoscowofficesinconnectionwiththecaseagainstnotoriouscrimeboss
ZakharyKALASHOV,orSHAKROMolodoi.
And:MK.rudiscussesthearrestofNiklandrovandtwootherhigh-rankingSKR
officials:http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1478102/
And:IntheKREMLINtheyarepermittinganinvestigationoftheparticipationoftheFSBinthe
[Olympic]DOPINGSCANDAL,http://newsru.com/russia/19jul2016/doping_print.html
And:MichaelISIKOFF,ChiefInvestigativeCorrespondent,YahooNews,TRUMPsfavoritegeneral
[MichaelFLYNN]leadscrowd[atRepublicanConvention]inanti-Hillarychant:Lockher
up,yahoo.com/news.7/18
But[Flynns]speechcameonadaywhenFlynnfacednewquestionsaboutsomeofhismore
controversialviewsaswellashisrelationshipwithaRussianTVStation[RT]thatservesasa
PROPAGANDAARMofPutinsgovernment.InaninterviewwithYahooNewsearlierintheday,Flynn
appearedtoacknowledgeforthefirsttimethathewasPAIDtoflytoMoscowlastDecemberandspeak
ataneventcelebratingthe10thanniversaryofRT,theRussianTVchannelthatregularlypromotesthe
Kremlinline
And:17-pageinterviewwithNatalyaPOKLONSKAYA,thePutiniteProcuratorof
CRIMEA:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73893.html?print=1
And:SevenUkrainiansoldiersKILLEDinclasheswithpro-Russianseparatists,themsocowtimes.com,
7/19
TROUBLESONTHERIGHT(US),TROUBLESONTHELEFT(CA).STANDINGINTHE
MIDDLEWITHU!!![SEEFURTHER]
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Subject:ReferencestoUkraineinGOP2016Platform[TheNewDTVersion]
To:
Intheinternationalarena,aweakAdministrationhasinvitedaggression.TheresultsoftheAdministrationsunilateralapproachto
disarmamentarealreadyclear:AnemboldenedChinaintheSouthChinaSea,aresurgentRussiaoccupyingpartsofUkraineand
threateningneighborsfromtheBaltictotheCaucasus,andanaggressiveIslamistterrornetworkintheMiddleEast.Wesupport
maintainingand,ifwarranted,increasingsanctions,togetherwithourallies,againstRussiaunlessanduntilUkrainessovereignty
andterritorialintegrityarefullyrestored.WealsosupportprovidingappropriateassistancetothearmedforcesofUkraine
andgreatercoordinationwithNATOdefenseplanning.[??]AllouradversariesheardthemessageintheAdministrations
cutbacks:Americaisweakerandretreating.Concomitantly,wehonor,support,andthankalllawenforcement,firstresponders,
andemergencypersonnelfortheirservice.

ForthepeopleofRussia,weaffirmourrespectandourdeterminationtomaintainafriendshipbeyondthereachofthosewhowish
todivideus.Wehavecommonimperatives:Endingterrorism,combatingnuclearproliferation,promotingtrade,andmore.Wealso
haveacommonproblem:Thecontinuingerosionofpersonallibertyandfundamentalrightsunderthecurrentofficialsinthe
Kremlin.Repressiveathomeandrecklessabroad,theirpoliciesimperilthenationswhichregainedtheirself-determinationupon
thecollapseoftheSovietUnion.WewillmeetthereturnofRussianbelligerencewiththesameresolvethatledtothecollapseof
theSovietUnion.WewillnotacceptanyterritorialchangeinEasternEuropeimposedbyforce,inUkraine,Georgia,or
elsewhere,andwilluseallappropriateconstitutionalmeasurestobringtojusticethepractitionersofaggressionand
assassination.[??]WeurgegreaterattentioninU.S.diplomacy,trade,andstrategicplanning,tothenationsofEurasia,formerly
partsoftheSovietEmpire.Caughtbetweentheirtwoauthoritarianneighbors,theirpathtowarddemocraticinstitutionshasbeen
uncertain.WeurgeourgovernmentandouralliestoworktowardtheintegrationoftheCentralAsianrepublicsintotheglobal
economythroughforeigninvestment,whichcanbringwithitmarketandpoliticalreformsandafirmerestablishmentoftheruleof
law.Thosedevelopmentswillnotonlyimprovethelivingconditionsthroughoutthatvastareabutarelikelytoreducethelureofthe
radicalideologiesthatalreadythreatentheregion.
[SEEFULLGOPPLATFORMATTACHED]
Subject:Doesordoesn'tTrudeaugetit???
To:
SomepeoplethinkTrudeauDOESNOTGETIT!!!!CanadaalreadystoppedsharinginfowithUkraine'smilitaryandisnot
extendingassistancewithmilitarytraining,etc.metc.(Seealsothelistofcancelledmilitarycooperationassuppliedbythe
Conservativeoppositionthatfollowsthearticleandisattached.)
AtthesametimeleadersoftheCanadianUkrainiancommunitycontinuetosignthepraisesoftheTrudeaugovernment(article
follows).
Opinion:InUkraine,JustinTrudeaushowedhegetsit
ALEXANDRACHYCZIJ,SPECIALTOMONTREALGAZETTE
MorefromAlexandraChyczij,SpecialtoMontrealGazette
Publishedon:July18,2016|LastUpdated:July18,20162:25PMEDT
CanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeauandhisson,Xavierpaytheirrespectstothevictimsofthe1932-1933great
famineattheHolodomorfaminememorialinKyiv,Ukraine,onJuly11,2016ANATOLIISTEPANOV/AFP/GETTY
IMAGES
AsaCanadianwhoseparentssufferedunderNaziandSoviettyrannyinUkraine,Iamamongthemostgratefulofcitizensforthe
asylumandsecondchancethiscountryofferedthem.Privilegedbyhavingbeenincludedasamemberoftheofficialdelegation
accompanyingPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeautoUkrainelastweekIwasstruckwithhowmuchtheprimeministerunderstands
aboutwhatthelandofmyancestorsenduredandwhatUkrainehopestoonedaybecome.
Everywherehewent,theprimeministersolemnlyrememberedUkrainespast.Helaidawreathatthememorialcomplexrecalling
themanymillionsofvictimsofthegenocidalGreatFamineof1932-33inSovietUkraine,theHolodomor.Herecalledthemillions
ofUkrainianswhofoughtanddiedfortheircountryduringtheSecondWorldWar,attheTomboftheUnknownSoldier.Andhe
paidhisrespectstothevictimsoftheNazisatBabynYar.
Fittingly,TrudeaualsodirectedattentiontotodaysUkraine.TheCanadaUkraineFreeTradeAgreementwassignedbyminister
ofInternationalTrade,ChrystiaFreeland,confirmingourcountrysgrowingeconomictieswithUkraine.Andhevisitedwithour
soldierswhoareengagedintrainingofUkrainessoldiersthroughOperationUnifier.CanadiansoldiersareenhancingUkraines
abilitiestodefenditselfevenasadditionaltroopsdeploytoLatviatoreassureourNATOalliesofCanadasreliability.
ButwhatwasmoreremarkablewashowTrudeauengagedwithUkrainesfuture.Athisinitiative,ameetingwasarrangedinKyiv
July11bringingtogethersomeofthemostdynamicandcourageousleadersofchangeinUkraine.Iwitnessedhowtheseyoung
Ukrainians,allofthemEnglish-speaking,andincludingpolicechiefs,physicians,investigativereporters,parliamentarians,anti-
corruptionwarriorsandLGBTQactivists,spokewiththeprimeminister.Theymadeitcleartheyallshareonebasicgoal,tosee
UkraineresumeitsrightfulplaceinEurope.Collectively,thesewomenandmenareexamplesofwhatUkrainesnextgeneration
advocatesfor:humanrights,freedomofspeechandassociation,theruleoflawanddemocracy.
TheprimeministerspokewithKhatiaDekanoidze,chiefoftheUkrainianNationalPolice,awomanintentonreformingaonce-
notoriouslycorruptforce.SheisbeingablyassistedbyCanadasownNataliaShuster,aninspectorwiththeMontrealpolice,in
UkraineundertheCanadianPolicingAgreement.ThentherewasSvitlanaZalishchuk,ajournalistandUkrainianparliamentarian,a
determinedcampaigneragainstcensorshipandastrongadvocateforpoliticalreform.AnotherwomanpresentwasDaria
Kaleniuk,executivedirectoroftheAnti-CorruptionActionCentre,anexpertinstolenassetrecoveryandanti-moneylaundering.
NotallofthosespeakingwithTrudeauwere,ofcourse,Ukrainianbybirthornationality.Ukraineistodayanincreasinglyinclusive
society,wherecitizenshipisbasednotononesethnic,religious,orracialheritage,butonengagementinthebuildingofaliberal-
democraticcommunity.Notsurprisingly,oneofthemostprominentUkrainiancitizenstodayisMustafaNayyem,borninKabul,a
journalistandmemberoftheVerkhovnaRada.ItwasMustafasnow-famousFacebookpostthatmobilizedhisfellowUkrainians
indefianceoftheYanukovychregime,precipitatingtheEuromaidanRevolutionofDignity.
Frankly,itwashardtonotgetemotionalwatchingCanadasprimeministerengagewiththisnextgenerationofUkrainesleaders,
particularlywhenhesalutedtheremarkableprogressUkrainehasmadeinmovingforwardsince1991,despitethelingeringand
debilitatinglegacyofitsSovietpastandthecurrenthardshipsimposedbytheRussianwaragainstUkraine.
Evenmoretellingly,evenastheprimeministerpromisedCanadasongoingsupportforUkraine,hesuggestedthatthis,hisfirst
statevisittoUkraine,wouldnotbehislast.WhatIrealizedatthatverymomentwasthatTrudeaugetsit,thatheknowsUkrainians
aretodayfightinganddyingfortheverysamevaluesthatCanadianshavealwaysdefended.
AlexandraChyczij,aTorontolawyer,travelledtoUkrainewithPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausdelegationasarepresentativeof
theUkrainianCanadianCongress.
LiberalsareSteppingBackonUkraine:BezanandKent
7/14/2016
JamesBezan,theOfficialOppositionCriticforNationalDefence,andPeterKent,theOfficialOppositionCriticforForeign
Affairs,todayissuedthefollowingstatementregardingtheLiberalgovernmentsfailuretofullysupportourUkrainianallies:
PrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausrecentvisittoUkrainerepresentedanopportunitytoreinforceCanadassupportforUkraine.
Unfortunately,insteadoftakingtheopportunitytoannouncethatCanadawouldbedoingmoretosupportourUkrainianallies,we
havelearnedthatCanadawillactuallybedoingless.
DespiteapersonalappealfromPresidentPoroshenko,PrimeMinisterTrudeaurefusedtoextendOperationUNIFIER,Canadas
trainingmissioninWesternUkrainebeyond2017.Thistrainingmissionisanexampleofthestrongbilateralrelationshipbetween
CanadaandUkraine.
TheLiberalgovernmentalsocancelledthesupplyofcriticalRADARSATsatelliteimagerytotheUkrainianmilitary,impacting
soldiersonthefrontlines.In2014,PresidentPoroshenkonotedthattheinformationsharingwashelpingtosavethelivesof
UkrainiansoldiersandciviliansandthankedthepreviousConservativegovernmentforitsongoingsupport.Cancellingthis
importantservicewithoutnoticeorexplanationissimplyunacceptable,especiallywhenInternationalTradeMinisterChrystia
Freelandsaidin2015thattheLiberalswouldunreservedlysupportprovidingthisinformation.
Furthermore,DefenceMinisterHarjitSajjansdecisiontonotjointhePrimeMinisterinUkrainerepresentsaclearshiftin
Canada-Ukrainerelations.TheMinistersabsenceresultedinthedefencecooperationagreement,whichoriginatedunderthe
previousConservativegovernment,notbeingfinalized.
UnderthepreviousConservativegovernment,CanadawasaworldleaderinitssupportforUkraine.Inadditiontoproviding
supportforNATO-ledmissions,wecontributedover$500millioninmilitary,economicandhumanitarianassistancetoUkraine,
sanctionedover270individualsandentities,anddeployedapproximately200CanadianArmedForcespersonneltodeliver
trainingandcapacity-buildingprogramsforUkrainiantroops.CanadacanandshoulddomoretosupportourUkrainianallies.
Senttime: 07/20/201609:37:33AM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceoftheROC.
Subject: [JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Attachments: GOP2016platformDRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_1468872234.pdf
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceofthe
ROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsinthe
serviceoftheROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"
themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORESTORIES.[BOPO]TroublestotheRight(US),TroublestotheLeft(CA)----
StandingintheMiddlewithU[A]!!!
-----------Forwardedmessage----------
Subject:Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)
TheNewYorkTimes(3)
SevenUkrainianSoldiersKilledinEasternRegionsAmidSurgeinViolence
KIEVSevenUkrainiantroopswerekilledinthepast24hoursduringfightingwithpro-Russianseparatists,makingJulythe
deadliestmonthfortheUkrainianmilitaryinnearlyayearafterasharpincreaseinviolence.
Another14werewounded,amilitaryspokesmansaid.ClashesinUkraine'seasternregionshavesurgedinspiteofan18-month-
old'Minsk'ceasefiredeal.Internationalmonitorshaveexpresseduneaseatrecentescalation.

UkrainianmilitaryspokesmanAndriyLysenkosaidseparatistshadbeenfiringhigh-calibermortarsatgovernmentpositions,naming
therebel-controlledtownofHorlivkaandtheoutskirtsofrebel-heldLuhanskasparticularhotspots.
"Onaverageeveryattacklastsforatleastthirtyminutesandcanlastforuptotwohours.That'showitwasyesterday,"Lysenko
said,withoutgivingdetailsonhowthesoldierswerekilled.
MeanwhileseparatistofficialsaccusedUkrainiantroopsofintensifyingshellingonrebel-heldterritory,separatistnewssiteDAN
reported.
TheMinskagreementwasmeanttostopthefighting,whichhaskilledover9,400sinceApril2014,butmanyofthedeal'spoints-
includingthecompletewithdrawalheavyweaponsfromthefrontline-haveyettobefullyimplemented.
OnJuly12,thechiefmonitoroftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,expresseduneaseoverthe
recentsharpincreaseinfighting.
Hedrewattentiontothecontinuedthreattocivilianlife,highlightingtherecentdeathsintwoseparateincidentsinDonetskregion
offiveyoungboys,threeofthembrothers.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsandAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyRaissaKasolowsky)
RussiaSaysCatchesOSCEEmployeeSpyingforUkraine
ByREUTERSJULY18,2016,1:39P.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWRussia'sFSBsecurityservicesaidonMondayithadcaughtanemployeeoftheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-
operationinEuropespyingforUkrainebypassingonsensitivemilitaryinformationaboutpro-Kremlinseparatists.
TheOSCEismonitoringafragileceasefireineasternUkrainewherepro-RussianseparatistsandUkrainiangovernmentforcesstill
regularlyexchangefire.
Itsopinioncounts,notleastbecauseGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhassaidshewantsRussiatodomoretoresolvethecrisis
beforetheEuropeanUnionconsiderswhethertoliftsanctionsimposedonMoscowoveritsactionsinUkraine.
TheFSBsaidinastatementithadclearevidencethatUkraine'sSBUintelligenceservicewasillegallyusingtheOSCEtogather
militaryinformation.
ItsaidanOSCEtranslator,ArtyomShestakov,aUkrainiannational,hadbeenrecruitedbytheSBUandhadpassedon
informationaboutthemovementsofmilitaryconvoys,troopnumbers,andthemobilephonenumbersofmilitarycommanders.
Inlate2015,itsaidhehadobtainedinformationaboutalocalpro-RussianCossackleaderwhowaslaterkilledbytheUkrainian
intelligenceservices.
ShestakovhadbeendetainedonRussiansoil,theFSBsaid,andhadconfessedtospying.HewasallowedtoreturntoUkraine
becausetheFSBsaidhisactionshadnotharmedRussia'sownnationalsecurity,butwasbannedfromenteringRussia,itsaid.
TheSBUdeclinedtocomment.
TheOSCE'sSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraineissuedastatementviasocialmedia,sayingitwasabletoconfirmthatoneof
itslocalemployeesineasternUkrainewastemporarilyoutofreachwhileonleave.
Itsaiditknewwherehewasandthathewassafe.Itwasfornowunabletoprovidefurtherdetails,itsaid.
(ReportingbyDmitrySolovyovinMOSCOWandNatalyaZinetsinKIEVEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
TheNewYorkTimes
RussianImagesofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17WereAltered,ReportFinds
ByANDREWE.KRAMERJULY15,2016(July16printedition)
MOSCOWAgroupofarmscontrolresearchershavedeterminedthattwoimagesreleasedbytheRussiangovernment,
ostensiblytohelpclarifywhyacivilianairlinerwasshotdowntwoyearsago,weredigitallyalteredusingPhotoshopbeforebeing
postedonline.
PartsofoneRussianmilitarysatelliteimagesimplyvanished,accordingtoresearchersattheMiddleburyInstituteforInternational
StudiesatMonterey,inCalifornia,behindasuspect-lookingcloud.
Inanotherimage,twochunky,trackedantiaircraftweaponsappearinsharperfocusthanthesurroundinglandscape,the
researcherssaidinthereportpostedonlineonFriday.
Itiscleartheimageshavebeenmodifiedoraltered,theresearcherssaid,afterrunningthephotographsthroughasuiteof
professionalsoftwareusedtodetectfakedigitalpictures,incourtproceedingsinEurope.
ThefindingishardlythefirsttodebunkimportantelementsoftheRussiangovernmentsnarrativeofwhoshotdownMalaysia
AirlinesFlight17onJuly17,2014,killingall298peopleaboard,intheworstatrocityofthewarinUkraine.
Atthetime,Russiasstatenewsagency,RIA,initiallyreportedthatRussian-backedseparatistshadshotdownaUkrainianmilitary
aircraft,butquicklybacktrackedonceitbecameclearacivilianairlinerhadbeenbroughtdown.
Russianstatetelevisiondevotedconsiderableairtimetoconspiracytheories,includingassertionsthattheUkrainiansweretryingto
shootdownPresidentVladimirV.Putinsplane,thattheplanehadbeenfilledwithdeadbodiesandcrashedinanelaborateruseto
embarrassRussia,orthattheCentralIntelligenceAgencywasbehindtheattack.
UkraineandWesterngovernmentssaythatnoneofthisistrue,andthatactive-dutyRussiansoldiersbackingtherebelsfiredonthe
airliner,perhapsmistakingitforamilitaryaircraft,asitflewfromAmsterdamtoKualaLumpur,theMalaysiancapital.
ThephotographswerepublishedonthewebsitesoftheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairsandMinistryofDefensejustdaysafter
thecrash.TheywerepresentedashavingbeentakenbyoneormoreRussianspysatellitesonJuly17,2014,aswarragedin
easternUkraine.
TheRussianpresentationassertedthataccordingtoourinformationonthedayoftheaccidenttheUkrainianarmedforces
deployedthreetofourartillerybattalionsofBuk-M1missiles,andprovidedtwosatelliteimagestosupporttheclaim.
Theanti-tamperingsoftware,though,foundthatacloudobscuringaportionofoneimagehadatonepointbeensavedusinga
differentformofdatacompressionfromtherestofthepicture.
Intheotherphotograph,showingapairofrocketlaunchersinafieldwitharoadloopingthroughit,thelaunchersareinexplicably
insharperfocusthanthesurroundingfield,accordingtothereport.AlongwithPhotoshop,otherprogramsmayalsohavebeen
used,theresearcherssaid.
Itshardtobecertainaboutwhattheyhavedone,JeffreyLewis,oneofthereportsauthors,saidofthemanipulationofthe
images.Itspossibletheyenhancedthemissilelaunchersthatwerethereorthattheycutandpastedthemin.
Theresearchersfocusonusingopen-sourceinformationtostudynuclearnonproliferation.Theyoriginallyboughtthespecialized
softwaretoanalyzeNorthKoreanpropagandaphotographs,buthavefoundotherusesforit.
Itswonderfulyoucanseewhotouchesuptheirweddingphotos,Mr.Lewissaid.Itturnsoutpeopletouchupphotosquite
alot.
AskedonFridayabouttheallegations,theRussianDefenseMinistrysaiditwouldrequirethreedaystorespond.TheMinistryof
ForeignAffairsreferredquestionstotheMinistryofDefense.

Earlier,Bellingcat,acitizen-journalismgroupusingopen-sourceinformationlikesocialmediapoststoanalyzeconflicts,had
identifiedthecloudyphotographaslikelyalteredtoobscurethedateitwastaken.
Anythingshortoftheoriginalandunalteredimages,giventhemanipulationsevidentintheslidesreleasedonline,willnaturallygive
risetoconcernsRussiadeliberatelyfabricatedevidencetoevadelegalresponsibilityforthedeathsofthepassengersandcrew,
theMontereygroupsaidinitsstudy.
TheWashingtonPost
TrumpcampaigngutsGOPsanti-RussiastanceonUkraine
ByJoshRogin
Opinions
July18at12:21PMFollow@joshrogin
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-campaign-guts-gops-anti-russia-stance-on-
ukraine/2016/07/18/98adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-
a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&tid=a_inl
TheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektomakesurethenewRepublicanplatformwontcallforgiving
weaponstoUkrainetofightRussianandrebelforces,contradictingtheviewofalmostallRepublicanforeignpolicyleadersin
Washington.
Throughoutthecampaign,TrumphasbeendismissiveofcallsforsupportingtheUkrainegovernmentasitfightsanongoing
Russian-ledintervention.Trumpscampaignchairman,PaulManafort,workedasalobbyistfortheRussian-backedformer
UkrainianpresidentViktorYanukovychformorethanadecade.
Still,RepublicandelegatesatlastweeksnationalsecuritycommitteeplatformmeetinginClevelandweresurprisedwhenthe
TrumpcampaignorchestratedasetofeventstomakesurethattheGOPwouldnotpledgetogiveUkrainetheweaponsithas
beenaskingforfromtheUnitedStates.
Insidethemeeting,DianaDenman,aplatformcommitteememberfromTexaswhowasaTedCruzsupporter,proposeda
platformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,increasingaidforUkraineand
providinglethaldefensiveweaponstotheUkrainianmilitary.
Today,thepost-ColdWaridealofaEuropewholeandfreeisbeingseverelytestedbyRussiasongoingmilitaryaggressionin
Ukraine,theamendmentread.TheUkrainianpeopledeserveouradmirationandsupportintheirstruggle.
Trumpstaffersintheroom,whoarenotdelegatesbutaretheretooverseetheprocess,intervened.Byworkingwithpro-Trump
delegates,theywereabletogettheissuetabledwhiletheydevisedamethodtorollbackthelanguage.
Onthesideline,DenmantriedtopersuadetheTrumpstaffersnottochangethelanguage,butfailed.Iwastroubledwhentheyput
asidemyamendmentandthenwatereditdown,Denmantoldme.Isaid,Whatisyourproblemwithacountrythatwantsto
remainfree?Itseemslikeasimplething.
Finally,TrumpstafferswroteanamendmenttoDenmansamendmentthatstrippedouttheplatformscallforprovidinglethal
defensiveweaponsandreplaceditwithsofterlanguagecallingforappropriateassistance.
Thatamendmentwasvotedonandpassed.WhentheRepublicanPartyreleasesitsplatformMonday,theofficialRepublicanparty
positiononarmsforUkrainewillbeatoddswithalmostallthepartysnationalsecurityleaders.
ThisisanotherexampleofTrumpbeingoutofstepwithGOPleadershipandthemainstreaminawaythatshowshewouldbe
dangerousforAmericaandtheworld,saidRachelHoff,anotherplatformcommitteememberwhowasintheroom.
Ofcourse,TrumpisnottheonlypoliticiantoopposesendinglethalweaponstoUkraine.PresidentObamadecidednotto
authorizeit,despiterecommendationstodosofromhistopEuropeofficialsintheStateDepartmentandthemilitary.TheUnited
StateshasprovidedUkrainewithnon-lethalequipmentandaid.
TrumpsviewofRussiahasalwaysbeenfriendlierthanmostRepublicans.HessaidhewouldgetalongverywellwithVladimir
PutinandcalleditagreathonorwhenPutinpraisedhim.TrumphasdonealotofbusinessinRussiaandhasbeentraveling
theresince1987.LastAugust,hesaidofUkrainejoiningNATO,Iwouldntcare.HetraveledthereinSeptember,andhetold
UkrainianstheirwarisreallyaproblemthataffectsEuropealotmorethanitaffectsus.
ForTrump,thebiggestthreattoEuropeisnotRussia,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwithhisthinking.HebelievestheUnitedStates
shouldfocusonhelpingEuropefightIslamistterrorismandopenborders,notconfrontingPutin.Hehascalledforareductionof
theU.S.commitmenttoNATO.HesimplydoesntseeRussiaasadangerousthreat.
ForDenman,theTrumpcampaignsactionsbetrayedtheU.S.commitmenttosupportingstrugglingdemocraciesaroundtheworld,
whichsheconsidersacoreRepublicanvalue.
TheUkrainianpeoplearetryingtocomeoutofthepastandstayfree.Weowetothosewhoarefightingforfreedomstilltogive
themahelpinghand,shesaid.
ImverypassionateandsupportiveoftheReaganforeignpolicyofpeacethroughstrength.
TrumptooofteninvokesRonaldReaganwhentalkingaboutAmericasroleintheworld.ButalthoughReagannegotiatedwiththe
SovietUnion,healsostooduptoRussianaggressioninEuropeanddefendeddemocraticprinciplesabroad.
Whentheplatformcomesout,RepublicanswillseehowfarfromtheReagandoctrinetheirpartyhasdrifted,thankstoTrump.
Forbes
Trump,DeferringToPutin,DeletedGOPPlatform'sCallToSupplyUkraineWithLethalDefensiveWeapons
PaulRoderickGregory
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/07/18/trump-deferring-to-putin-deleted-gop-platforms-call-to-supply-
ukraine-with-lethal-defensive-weapons/#1f440a299d32
Accordingtomultipleaccounts,theTrumpcampaignhassuccessfullyworkedbehindthescenestomakesurethenewRepublican
platformwouldnotpledgethelethaldefensiveweaponsUkrainehasbeenpleadingforfromtheUnitedStates.Trumpsforces
havetabledaplatformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,andhavesubstituted
appropriateassistanceforprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainesmilitary.Removingsanctionsandblockinglethal
militaryassistancetoUkrainearethetwoprimarygoalsofPutinsforeignpolicy.TheRepublicanplatformishandingthosegoalsto
Putinonagoldenplatter.
DespiteCongressionalapproval,theObamaadministrationhasnotsuppliedUkrainewithlethaldefensiveweaponsonthefoolish
groundsthatUkrainecannotdefeattheRussianmilitaryandthattheweaponscouldfallintothewronghands.Ofcourse,Ukraines
armycannotdefeatRussiabutanupgradedmilitarycouldimposelossesonRussiathatwoulddiscouragefurtherincursions.
RussiaswaragainstUkraineisararecaseswhereweaponswilldefinitelynotfallintothewronghands.TheUkrainianpeople,
startingfromzero,havebuiltanarmythathaslimitedRussianoccupationtopartsoftheDonbasregion.UnlikeSyriaorLibya,we
knowwhothegoodguysare.UkrainewillnothandovermoderncommunicationsgearandantitankweaponstoRussiaorthird
parties.Theyneedthemfortheirownnationalsurvival.
Inanearlieressay,IgaveninereasonswhyfellowconservativesshouldvoteforDonaldTrump,amongthemSupremeCourt
nominations,Clintonspropensitytolie,thefree-riderNATOproblem,TrumpsAmericafirstversusHillaryscitizenofthe
worldforeignpolicy,andhisunderstandingofAmericasdisenchantmentwithpoliticsasusual.Mysupportwasnotwithout
reservations.AssomeonewhofollowstheKremlinsperfidyclosely,TrumpsoffhandpraiseofPutinandhisapparentlackof
concernovertheCrimeanannexation,theinvasionofUkraine,andPutinssalvagingoftheAssadregimethroughmilitary
interventionpromptedmetowriteSevenWarningstoDonaldTrumpaboutVladimirPutin,amongthem:
Putinstarted(withoutcause)awaragainstUkrainethathaskilledmorethan10,000,wounded25,000,andmisplacedoneanda
halfmillion.SofarPutinhassufferednoconsequences,althoughhe,forthefirsttimeinpostwarhistory,alterednationalboundaries
byforce.
PutinhasdeclaredtheUnitedStatesasenemynumberonesincehisFebruary2007speechinMunich.HowwillTrumpgetalong
verywellwithanegotiatingpartner,whoseregimesveryexistencerequirestheU.S.asRussiasmajorenemy?
Putinliespubliclyandrepeatedlyaboutthemostimportantpoliticalmatters,suchastherearenoRussiantroopsinUkraine,that
theCrimeanannexationwasaspontaneousactoftheCrimeanpeople,andthataUkrainianfightershotdownMH17.Trump
complainsthatHillaryisaserialliaryethebelieveshecannegotiatewitharogueleaderwholieswithouthesitationaboutmatters
involvingthelivesofthousandsorhundredsofthousands.
PutinrunsacriminalkleptocracythatnotonlystolethenationalwealthbutlikelykilledhundredsofRussiansinpolitically-motivated
apartmentbombingsandispresumedtohaveorderedanumberofpoliticalassassinations.UnderPutin,Russiaisinthetoplistof
journalistskilledforpoliticalmotives.
Trumptoutshisskillsasasavvynegotiator,whocansizeuphisopponents.IfTrumpletsoffPutinforhiscrimesand
misadventures,herunstheriskofplayingthedupeasdidformerChancellorGerhardSchroederofGermany(Putinsstoogeon
Gazpromsboard),GeorgeW.Bush(wholookedintohissoul),andBarackObamaandHillaryClinton(Russianresetandthe
Syrianfiasco).TrumpsurelydoesnotwishtojointheseusefulfoolsoftheKremlin,butheseemsontheverge.
DonaldTrumpwillwinthepresidencyifhecomesacrossasastrongleaderbothathomeandabroad.Themostdirecttestsofhis
projectionofstrengthabroadwillbehisfightagainstterrorismandhiswillingnesstostanduptoPutin.Heseemstobefailinginthe
lattercase.
Trumphasboastedthatagoodnegotiatordoesnotsaywhatheisnotgoingtodoinadvance.Removingdefensivelethalweapons
toUkrainefromtheplatformdoesjustthat.Itisasignofaweaknegotiator.TheeyesofthenationshouldbeonarmsforUkraine
astheRepublicanconventionunfolds.IfTrumpsendsthewrongsignal,heriskshiscredentialsasastrongleader.
AtlanticCouncil(2)
UkraineNeedstoAbandonitsSovietThinkingOnceandforAll
July18,2016
ByBasilA.Kalymon
UkrainesreformeffortscontinuetosputteronwithoutanytransformativeresultsmorethantwoyearsafterformerPresident
ViktorYanukovychfledtoMoscow.Theeconomysbasicproblemshavenotyetbeenaddressed.Itisstillboggeddowninits
Sovietpast,withpopulistforcesmakingillusorypromisesthatappealtomanyvotersSoviet-eramentality.Theresultiscorruption,
inefficiency,alackofinvestmentandinnovation,budgetarystress,inflation,andeconomicstagnation.
Inordertoexperiencetransformativegrowthandprosperity,Ukrainemustradicallybreakwiththepastandthecurrentpopulist
mentalityandembracefreemarketeconomicpolicies.Suchpoliciesareatthebaseofallofthesuccessfultransformationsthat
haveoccurredinpost-communistsocieties.Inessence,whatisrequiredisarecognitionofthestateslimitedroleandanagreement
thatindividualresponsibilityandmarketforceswillguidetheeconomy.
Thisapproachwouldrequiredramaticchangestomanyoftheeconomysfundamentalsystems.
ReadMore
HowUkraineCanWintheInformationWarinaFactFreeWorld
July18,2016
ByPeterDickinson
Whatmediaoutletsdoyoutrust?FromtheBrexitreferendumandtheUSpresidentialracetoRussiasinformationwaron
Ukraine,itisbecomingincreasinglyclearthatwenowliveinafact-freeworldwhereemotionsreignsupremeandtruthisintheeye
ofthebeholder.
Thistrendfirstbecameapparentaroundthetimeofthe2003Iraqwar.Themainstreammediawasdirectlycomplicitinsomeof
themisinformationissuedduringthelead-uptotheUS-ledinvasion,shatteringpublictrustinmanyofthemostrespectedproviders
ofinformation.Meanwhile,theconspiracytheorysubculturepromotedbytheinternethasplayedanequallydevastatingrolein
underminingthesanctityoffacts.Today,counterculturewebsiteshavemovedinfromthefringestocompetewithlegacybrands,
whilemanyoftheleadingcurrentaffairsprogramsonTVare,literally,comedyshows.
ReadMore
Subject:CheckoutUKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPat
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,Staff@ukrweekly.com,Romashka1@aol.com
UKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPatriarchate
Subject:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
RussiasFederalSecurityService(FSB)havedetainedseveralemployeesoftheMoscowdepartmentof
theRussianInvestigativeCommittee,includingdeputyheadDenisNIKANDROVTheFSBbegana
And:MK.rudiscussesthearrestofNiklandrovandtwootherhigh-rankingSKR
officials:http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1478102/
[MichaelFLYNN]leadscrowd[atRepublicanConvention]inanti-Hillarychant:Lockher
up,yahoo.com/news.7/18
appearedtoacknowledgeforthefirsttimethathewasPAIDtoflytoMoscowlastDecemberandspeak
ataneventcelebratingthe10thanniversaryofRT,theRussianTVchannelthatregularlypromotesthe
Kremlinline
And:17-pageinterviewwithNatalyaPOKLONSKAYA,thePutiniteProcuratorof
CRIMEA:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73893.html?print=1
And:SevenUkrainiansoldiersKILLEDinclasheswithpro-Russianseparatists,themsocowtimes.com,
7/19
TROUBLESONTHERIGHT(US),TROUBLESONTHELEFT(CA).STANDINGINTHE
MIDDLEWITHU!!![SEEFURTHER]
Subject:ReferencestoUkraineinGOP2016Platform[TheNewDTVersion]
To:
Intheinternationalarena,aweakAdministrationhasinvitedaggression.TheresultsoftheAdministrationsunilateralapproachto
disarmamentarealreadyclear:AnemboldenedChinaintheSouthChinaSea,aresurgentRussiaoccupyingpartsofUkraineand
threateningneighborsfromtheBaltictotheCaucasus,andanaggressiveIslamistterrornetworkintheMiddleEast.Wesupport
maintainingand,ifwarranted,increasingsanctions,togetherwithourallies,againstRussiaunlessanduntilUkrainessovereignty
andterritorialintegrityarefullyrestored.WealsosupportprovidingappropriateassistancetothearmedforcesofUkraine
andgreatercoordinationwithNATOdefenseplanning.[??]AllouradversariesheardthemessageintheAdministrations
cutbacks:Americaisweakerandretreating.Concomitantly,wehonor,support,andthankalllawenforcement,firstresponders,
andemergencypersonnelfortheirservice.

ForthepeopleofRussia,weaffirmourrespectandourdeterminationtomaintainafriendshipbeyondthereachofthosewhowish
todivideus.Wehavecommonimperatives:Endingterrorism,combatingnuclearproliferation,promotingtrade,andmore.Wealso
haveacommonproblem:Thecontinuingerosionofpersonallibertyandfundamentalrightsunderthecurrentofficialsinthe
Kremlin.Repressiveathomeandrecklessabroad,theirpoliciesimperilthenationswhichregainedtheirself-determinationupon
thecollapseoftheSovietUnion.WewillmeetthereturnofRussianbelligerencewiththesameresolvethatledtothecollapseof
theSovietUnion.WewillnotacceptanyterritorialchangeinEasternEuropeimposedbyforce,inUkraine,Georgia,or
elsewhere,andwilluseallappropriateconstitutionalmeasurestobringtojusticethepractitionersofaggressionand
assassination.[??]WeurgegreaterattentioninU.S.diplomacy,trade,andstrategicplanning,tothenationsofEurasia,formerly
partsoftheSovietEmpire.Caughtbetweentheirtwoauthoritarianneighbors,theirpathtowarddemocraticinstitutionshasbeen
uncertain.WeurgeourgovernmentandouralliestoworktowardtheintegrationoftheCentralAsianrepublicsintotheglobal
economythroughforeigninvestment,whichcanbringwithitmarketandpoliticalreformsandafirmerestablishmentoftheruleof
law.Thosedevelopmentswillnotonlyimprovethelivingconditionsthroughoutthatvastareabutarelikelytoreducethelureofthe
radicalideologiesthatalreadythreatentheregion.
[SEEFULLGOPPLATFORMATTACHED]
Subject:Doesordoesn'tTrudeaugetit???
To:
SomepeoplethinkTrudeauDOESNOTGETIT!!!!CanadaalreadystoppedsharinginfowithUkraine'smilitaryandisnot
extendingassistancewithmilitarytraining,etc.metc.(Seealsothelistofcancelledmilitarycooperationassuppliedbythe
Conservativeoppositionthatfollowsthearticleandisattached.)
AtthesametimeleadersoftheCanadianUkrainiancommunitycontinuetosignthepraisesoftheTrudeaugovernment(article
follows).
Opinion:InUkraine,JustinTrudeaushowedhegetsit
ALEXANDRACHYCZIJ,SPECIALTOMONTREALGAZETTE
MorefromAlexandraChyczij,SpecialtoMontrealGazette
Publishedon:July18,2016|LastUpdated:July18,20162:25PMEDT
CanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeauandhisson,Xavierpaytheirrespectstothevictimsofthe1932-1933great
famineattheHolodomorfaminememorialinKyiv,Ukraine,onJuly11,2016ANATOLIISTEPANOV/AFP/GETTY
IMAGES
AsaCanadianwhoseparentssufferedunderNaziandSoviettyrannyinUkraine,Iamamongthemostgratefulofcitizensforthe
asylumandsecondchancethiscountryofferedthem.Privilegedbyhavingbeenincludedasamemberoftheofficialdelegation
accompanyingPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeautoUkrainelastweekIwasstruckwithhowmuchtheprimeministerunderstands
aboutwhatthelandofmyancestorsenduredandwhatUkrainehopestoonedaybecome.
Everywherehewent,theprimeministersolemnlyrememberedUkrainespast.Helaidawreathatthememorialcomplexrecalling
themanymillionsofvictimsofthegenocidalGreatFamineof1932-33inSovietUkraine,theHolodomor.Herecalledthemillions
ofUkrainianswhofoughtanddiedfortheircountryduringtheSecondWorldWar,attheTomboftheUnknownSoldier.Andhe
paidhisrespectstothevictimsoftheNazisatBabynYar.
Fittingly,TrudeaualsodirectedattentiontotodaysUkraine.TheCanadaUkraineFreeTradeAgreementwassignedbyminister
ofInternationalTrade,ChrystiaFreeland,confirmingourcountrysgrowingeconomictieswithUkraine.Andhevisitedwithour
soldierswhoareengagedintrainingofUkrainessoldiersthroughOperationUnifier.CanadiansoldiersareenhancingUkraines
abilitiestodefenditselfevenasadditionaltroopsdeploytoLatviatoreassureourNATOalliesofCanadasreliability.
ButwhatwasmoreremarkablewashowTrudeauengagedwithUkrainesfuture.Athisinitiative,ameetingwasarrangedinKyiv
July11bringingtogethersomeofthemostdynamicandcourageousleadersofchangeinUkraine.Iwitnessedhowtheseyoung
Ukrainians,allofthemEnglish-speaking,andincludingpolicechiefs,physicians,investigativereporters,parliamentarians,anti-
corruptionwarriorsandLGBTQactivists,spokewiththeprimeminister.Theymadeitcleartheyallshareonebasicgoal,tosee
UkraineresumeitsrightfulplaceinEurope.Collectively,thesewomenandmenareexamplesofwhatUkrainesnextgeneration
advocatesfor:humanrights,freedomofspeechandassociation,theruleoflawanddemocracy.
TheprimeministerspokewithKhatiaDekanoidze,chiefoftheUkrainianNationalPolice,awomanintentonreformingaonce-
notoriouslycorruptforce.SheisbeingablyassistedbyCanadasownNataliaShuster,aninspectorwiththeMontrealpolice,in
UkraineundertheCanadianPolicingAgreement.ThentherewasSvitlanaZalishchuk,ajournalistandUkrainianparliamentarian,a
determinedcampaigneragainstcensorshipandastrongadvocateforpoliticalreform.AnotherwomanpresentwasDaria
Kaleniuk,executivedirectoroftheAnti-CorruptionActionCentre,anexpertinstolenassetrecoveryandanti-moneylaundering.
NotallofthosespeakingwithTrudeauwere,ofcourse,Ukrainianbybirthornationality.Ukraineistodayanincreasinglyinclusive
society,wherecitizenshipisbasednotononesethnic,religious,orracialheritage,butonengagementinthebuildingofaliberal-
democraticcommunity.Notsurprisingly,oneofthemostprominentUkrainiancitizenstodayisMustafaNayyem,borninKabul,a
journalistandmemberoftheVerkhovnaRada.ItwasMustafasnow-famousFacebookpostthatmobilizedhisfellowUkrainians
indefianceoftheYanukovychregime,precipitatingtheEuromaidanRevolutionofDignity.
Frankly,itwashardtonotgetemotionalwatchingCanadasprimeministerengagewiththisnextgenerationofUkrainesleaders,
particularlywhenhesalutedtheremarkableprogressUkrainehasmadeinmovingforwardsince1991,despitethelingeringand
debilitatinglegacyofitsSovietpastandthecurrenthardshipsimposedbytheRussianwaragainstUkraine.
Evenmoretellingly,evenastheprimeministerpromisedCanadasongoingsupportforUkraine,hesuggestedthatthis,hisfirst
statevisittoUkraine,wouldnotbehislast.WhatIrealizedatthatverymomentwasthatTrudeaugetsit,thatheknowsUkrainians
aretodayfightinganddyingfortheverysamevaluesthatCanadianshavealwaysdefended.
AlexandraChyczij,aTorontolawyer,travelledtoUkrainewithPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausdelegationasarepresentativeof
theUkrainianCanadianCongress.
LiberalsareSteppingBackonUkraine:BezanandKent
7/14/2016
JamesBezan,theOfficialOppositionCriticforNationalDefence,andPeterKent,theOfficialOppositionCriticforForeign
Affairs,todayissuedthefollowingstatementregardingtheLiberalgovernmentsfailuretofullysupportourUkrainianallies:
PrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausrecentvisittoUkrainerepresentedanopportunitytoreinforceCanadassupportforUkraine.
Unfortunately,insteadoftakingtheopportunitytoannouncethatCanadawouldbedoingmoretosupportourUkrainianallies,we
havelearnedthatCanadawillactuallybedoingless.
DespiteapersonalappealfromPresidentPoroshenko,PrimeMinisterTrudeaurefusedtoextendOperationUNIFIER,Canadas
trainingmissioninWesternUkrainebeyond2017.Thistrainingmissionisanexampleofthestrongbilateralrelationshipbetween
CanadaandUkraine.
TheLiberalgovernmentalsocancelledthesupplyofcriticalRADARSATsatelliteimagerytotheUkrainianmilitary,impacting
soldiersonthefrontlines.In2014,PresidentPoroshenkonotedthattheinformationsharingwashelpingtosavethelivesof
UkrainiansoldiersandciviliansandthankedthepreviousConservativegovernmentforitsongoingsupport.Cancellingthis
importantservicewithoutnoticeorexplanationissimplyunacceptable,especiallywhenInternationalTradeMinisterChrystia
Freelandsaidin2015thattheLiberalswouldunreservedlysupportprovidingthisinformation.
Furthermore,DefenceMinisterHarjitSajjansdecisiontonotjointhePrimeMinisterinUkrainerepresentsaclearshiftin
Canada-Ukrainerelations.TheMinistersabsenceresultedinthedefencecooperationagreement,whichoriginatedunderthe
previousConservativegovernment,notbeingfinalized.
UnderthepreviousConservativegovernment,CanadawasaworldleaderinitssupportforUkraine.Inadditiontoproviding
supportforNATO-ledmissions,wecontributedover$500millioninmilitary,economicandhumanitarianassistancetoUkraine,
sanctionedover270individualsandentities,anddeployedapproximately200CanadianArmedForcespersonneltodeliver
trainingandcapacity-buildingprogramsforUkrainiantroops.CanadacanandshoulddomoretosupportourUkrainianallies.
Senttime: 07/20/201610:54:55AM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS&UAJOCBRIEF14092016][JDDD7-20]MT:"Ukraine,BelarusandRussiareacttoPAVELSHEREMET
Subject: MURDER"+10MoreStories[ODDDI&II]Fwd:Ukraine/Belarus:NYT,WP,RL,OSCEPA,OSCE,USEKyivUkraine:WSJ,NYT,WP,
FT[MVH]HRW
Attachments: UA_JOC_Brief_14092016.pdf
Sent:Wednesday,July20,201610:35AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS&UAJOCBRIEF14092016][JDDD7-20]MT:"Ukraine,BelarusandRussiareacttoPAVELSHEREMET
MURDER"+10MoreStories[ODDDI&II]Fwd:Ukraine/Belarus:NYT,WP,RL,OSCEPA,OSCE,USEKyivUkraine:WSJ,NYT,WP,
FT[MVH]HRWq...
Date:Wed,Jul20,2016at12:03PM
Subject:"Ukraine,BelarusandRussiareacttoPAVELSHEREMETMURDER,"themoscowtimes.com,7/20[Hewas
killedbyaCARBOMBinKyiv]
"Ukraine,BelarusandRussiareacttoPAVELSHEREMETMURDER,"themoscowtimes.com,7/20[He
waskilledbyaCARBOMBinKyiv]
And:FBIexpertsjoinPavelSHEREMETsmurderinvestigationinUkraine,meduza.io,7/20[English]
And:POROSHENKOcalledthegoalofShremetsmurdertheDESTABILIZATIONof
Ukraine,http://slon.ru/posts/71045
UkrainianlawenforcementofficialshavenotedaRussianevidenceTRAIL.
And:NewLEVADACENTERpoll:19%ofRussianswouldliketoLEAVEthecountry[75%donot
wanttodoso],http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27867573.html
And:UkrainianpollconductedbySOFIA:Morethan60%ofUkrainiansadmitthepossibilityofa
FULL-SCALEWARwithRussia[31%saythereisnosuch
threat],http://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/8897393.shtml

And:StanislavBELKOVSKIIonthesharpconflicttakingplacebetweentheInvestigationsCommittee
andtheFSB:http://echo.msk.ru/programs/beseda/1805126-echo/
And:LeonidBershidsky,TRUMPsmanager[PaulMANAFORT]isamasterofpost-Sovietbusiness,
Bloomberg.com,7/20
IfTrumpwins[theelection],Manafortandhiscolleaguesontheteamcanbereliedtokeepthese
unofficialcommunicationlines[toRussianbigbusinessandwealthyRussians]open.TheTrump
campaignhaskeptofftheRepublicanPartyplatformanypledgetohelpUkrainewithitscampaign
againstRussian-backedseparatists.ImsureitsdulynotedinMoscow.
And:RussianSPORTinthedock,themsocowtimes.com,7/20
And:RussiasSECONDmostpowerfulman[IgorSECHIN]building$60millionhomenear
Moscow,themoscowtimes.com,7/20
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKY,Amurderputoffforthreeyears,kasparov.ru,7/19
Detaileddiscussionofanewfour-partdefactobookbyI.MurzinentitledSakralnayazhertva,which
hasbeenpostedonkasparov.ru.ThebookisentirelydevotedtotheassassinationofBorisNEMTSOV
andexaminesallthevideomaterialavailable.
And:RussiaacquitsPRIMORSKYPARTISANSofmurderinretrial,rferl.org,7/20
Date:Wed,Jul20,2016at10:24AM
Subject:Ukraine/Belarus:NYT,WP,RL,OSCEPA,OSCE,USEKyiv.
Asadday.AlsoincludingmyBelaruslistgivenhisprominentroleasacrusaderforfreedominthatcountry.
TheNewYorkTimes
PavelSheremet,JournalistinUkraine,IsKilledinCarBombing
ByANDREWE.KRAMERJULY20,2016
Video
PavelSheremet,44,aBelarussiancitizenwhohadworkedforRussianstatetelevisionbeforemovingtoUkrainetohostaradio
newsprogram,waskilledinacarbombinginKievonWednesday.
MOSCOWAprominentradioandtelevisionjournalistinKiev,thecapitalofUkraine,waskilledinacarbombingon
Wednesday,officialssaid,inoneofthehighest-profileassassinationsofareporterinthecountryinyears.
Thejournalist,PavelSheremet,44,aBelarussiancitizenwhohadworkedforRussianstatetelevisionbeforemovingtoUkraineto
hostamorningradionewsprogramfiveyearsago,diedwhenthecarhewasdrivingexplodednearKievsgovernmentquarter.
Mr.Sheremetwasamongseveralwell-knownjournalistsinRussiawhomovedtoUkraine,whererestrictionsonthenewsmedia
arelooser,aroundthetimeanewgovernmenttookoverinthecountry,in2014.Membersofthisgrouphavebeenhighlycriticalof
thenewleadership.
Theexplosionscatteredcarpartsoverpavingstonesandsentthemintoaswirloforangeflames,photographsofthescene
showed.
YuriyV.Lutsenko,theUkrainianprosecutorgeneral,saidonFacebookthatacarbombhadcausedtheexplosion,andheruled
outatechnicalfaultwiththevehicle.
Mr.Sheremet,theonlyoccupantofthecar,reportedforVesti,aradionewsshowbasedinKiev,andalsoworkedforUkrainska
Pravda,awell-respectednewsoutlet.
InRussia,Mr.SheremethadworkedforORT,aleadingstate-ownedtelevisionstation.
ThecarbelongedtoMr.Sheremetsgirlfriend,OlenaPrytula,afoundingeditorofUkrainskaPravda,whosejournalists,likeothers
intheformerSovietUnion,havebeensingledoutforretribution.SpeakingonEchoofMoscowradioWednesdaymorning,his
colleaguesspeculatedthatMs.Prytulamighthavebeentheintendedtarget.
In2000,aUkrainskaPravdareporter,GeorgiyGongadze,whohadbeenhighlycriticalofthepresidentatthetime,Leonid
Kuchma,waskilledandbeheaded,adeaththatstillresonatesinUkrainianjournalisticcircles.
InRussia,theoppositionleaderMikhailN.KasyanovissuedastatementcallingMr.Sheremetskillingterribleandpraisinghim
asajournalistwhodidntcompromisewithhisconscience.
TheWashingtonPost
ProminentjournalistkilledincarbombinginUkraine
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/prominent-journalist-killed-in-car-bombing-in-ukraine/2016/07/20/8bcc4c5e-
4e49-11e6-bf27-405106836f96_story.html
Belarusian-bornjournalistPavelSheremet,44,waskilledinacarbombinginUkraine'scapitalKiev.(APPhoto/EfremLukatsky)
(EfremLukatsky/AP)
ByNataliyaVasilyeva|AP
Europe
July20at9:02AM
MOSCOWAprominentjournalistwaskilledinacarbombinginUkrainescapital,Kiev,onWednesday,sendingshockwaves
throughtheUkrainianjournalistcommunitythatwasshapedbythegruesomekillingofthepublicationsfounder16yearsago.
ThecountrystoponlinenewswebsiteUkrainskaPravdasaiditsjournalistPavelSheremetdiedinanexplosionearlyon
Wednesdayashegotintohiscartodrivetoworktoanchoratalkshowonalocalradiostation.
Thepublicationsaidthecarwasownedbyitseditor-in-chiefOlenaPrytula.Imagesfromthesceneshowedthecharredcar
strandedinthemiddleofacobbledstreet.
ZoryanShkiryak,advisertotheUkrainianinteriorminister,saidinaFacebookpostthatanimprovisedexplosivedevicewas
plantedunderneaththecar.Shkiryaksaidthedevicewaseitheradelayed-actionbomborwasremotelyoperated.Itsbelievedto
havecontaineduptotheequivalentof600gramsofTNT.
InteriorMinisterKhatiyaDekanoidzesaidintelevisedcommentsatthesceneofthecrimethatshewillpersonallysupervisethe
investigation.
JournalistPavelSheremetin2015.(TheRadioVestiviaAP)(AP)
Wearelookingatalltheories,shesaid,addingthatsolvingthemurderisveryimportant,amatterofhonorfortheKievpolice.
[ARussianjournalistexplainswhythereisnocorruptioninRussia]
RussiasNovayaGazetaquotedseveralfriendsandfamilyofSheremetandhispartnerPrytulasayingthattheyhadcomplained
aboutbeingfollowed.
UkrainesmediacommunitywasdeeplyaffectedbythebrutalslayingofUkrainskaPravdafounderHeorhiyGongadzein2000.
Thirteenyearslater,anInteriorMinistryofficialwasconvictedforthekillingbuttheprobeneverformallydeterminedwhoordered
it.RightsgroupsaccusedUkrainesthen-presidentofinvolvementinthemurderbasedontaperecordingsmadebythepresidents
bodyguard.
CurrentPresidentPetroPoroshenkoofferedhiscondolencestoSheremetsfriendsandfamilyandsaidhehasinstructedlaw-
enforcementagenciestoconductaspeedyinvestigationintothiscrime.
The44-yearoldBelarusian-bornjournalistirkedofficialsinBelarusandRussiabeforehemovedtoUkraine,wherehesaidthere
werefewerhurdlestoindependentreporting.
In1997,BelarusconvictedSheremetofillegallycrossingitsborderandsentencedhimtothreeyearsinprisonforhisinvestigation
ontheporousborderbetweenBelarusandLithuania.Heservedthreemonthsinprisonbeforehewasreleased.Sheremetfaced
threatsandharassmentinBelarusandwasbadlybeatenin2004whilecoveringanelection.SeveralyearslaterhemovedtoRussia
toworkintelevision.
[Fromthearchives:HeorhiyGongadzeswifedoubtsjustice]
InamedialandscapesanitizedbytheauthoritarianBelarusiangovernment,Sheremetwhilelivingabroadfounded
Belaruspartisan.orgwhichwentontobecomeoneofthecountrysleadingindependentnewswebsites.HemovedtoUkrainein
2014afterwhathesaidwaspressurefromhisRussiantelevisionbossesoverthereportingofongoingoppositionprotestsinKiev.
OutpouringsofgriefcameWednesdaymorningfrompoliticiansandjournalistsinallthreecountries.
InMoscow,prominentjournalistKonstantinvonEggertinanobituarypostedonthewebsiteoftheDozhdTVchanneldescribed
Sheremetasapioneerofinvestigativereporting.
HisfamousreportabouttheillegalcrossingoftheBelarusianborderwasamajortelevisionsensationofthe1990s,Eggertsaid.
Itwasthetimewhenajournalisttriedathingouthimselfandhadtopayforit,facingchargesinhisowncountry.
TheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEuropeinastatementonWednesdaycondemnedthekillingandcalledon
Ukrainianauthoritiestoconductathoroughinvestigationandbringtheperpetratorstojustice.
SheremetissurvivedbyasonandadaughterwholiveinMinsk,whereSheremetwillbeburied.
___
ThisstoryhasbeencorrectedtoshowthattherewasaconvictioninGongadzeskillingbutthecasewasnotfullyresolved.
RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-journalist-pavel-sheremet-killed-car-bomb/27868777.html
July20,2016
ProminentBelarusian-BornJournalistPavelSheremetKilledInKyivCarBlast
byChristopherMiller
KYIV--PavelSheremet,anaward-winningjournalistwhosereportingchallengedtheauthoritiesinBelarus,Russia,andUkraine
overthepasttwodecades,waskilledonJuly20whenthecarhewasdrivingwasdestroyedbyabombindowntownKyiv.
UkrainianProsecutor-GeneralYuriyLutsenkocalledSheremet'sdeatha"murder,"sayingtheblastwascausedbyan"explosive
device"andthatallevidencepointstoanassassination.Colleaguessaidtheybelieveditwaslinkedtohiswork.
Belarusian-bornSheremet,44,ajournalistatnewswebsiteUkrayinskaPravda,wasdrivingtotheofficesofRadioVestitodoa
regularmorningshowwhenthebombwentoffatabout7:45a.m.,officialssaid.TheInteriorMinistrysaidtheexplosiveswere
plantedunderneaththecarandtheblastwassetoffbypossiblyaremote-controlledordelayed-actiondetonator.
TheexplosiondestroyedtheredsedanSheremetwasdriving,whichwasownedbyhispartner,UkrayinskaPravdaownerand
foundingeditorOlenaPrytula.Theforceoftheblastwasequivalenttosome600gramsofTNT.
TheministrysaidSheremetskillershadactedskillfully."
A
tthescene,kioskoperatorLyubovPereyenkosaidshehadjustopenedhershopwhenadeafeningblastshooktheground.
Theexplosionwassopowerfulthatitsentparts[ofthecar]flyingintomykiosk,shetoldRFE/RL.
Abaristaatamobilecoffeetrucksaidtheblastthrusthimbackwardandnearlyknockedhimtothegroundandthatitappeared
Sheremetwasalivewhenonlookerspulledhismangledbodyfromthescorchedvehicle.
Hetookabreath.Maybejustone,saidthebarista,whodidnotwanttogivehisname.Sheremet'sbodywassmoking,he
added,sobystanderspouredwateroverhisbody.
Pereyenkosaidittookfirstrespondersfiveor10minutestoarriveatthescene.
SheremetsdeathpromptedanimmediateoutpouringofgrieffromjournalistsinUkraine,wherethegrislyslayingofUkrayinska
Pravdasfounder16yearsagohasleftacloudoverthemediaandpoliticalclimate.
It'sterrible.We'reallverysadtoday,MustafaNayyem,amemberofparliamentandformerjournalistatUkrayinskaPravda,told
RFE/RLbyphonefromthesiteofthemorningrush-hourexplosion.
SheremetwasalsomournedbycolleaguesandfriendsfromBelarus,Russia,andfurtherafield.
ShockedbythemurderofPavelSheremet,MichaelMcFaul,aformerU.S.ambassadortoRussia,saidonTwitter.Hecalled
Sheremetoneofthebestjournalistsandsaid:Pavelwassuchadecentman.Sosad.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkowroteonFacebookthathehasorderedsecurityofficialsto"immediatelyinvestigatethis
crime,"addingthat"theculpritsmustbepunished."
PoroshenkoheldameetingwithseniorsecurityofficialsandorderedsecuritytobeprovidedtoPrytula,thepresident'sspokesman
saidonTwitter.
Sheremet'skillingwilladdtoconcernsaboutthefutureofUkraine,whichisstrugglingwitheconomichardshipandatwo-year-old-
oldconflictwithRussia-backedseparatiststhathaskilledmorethan9,400peopleintheeasternprovincesofDonetskand
Luhansk.
WATCH:Videotakenintheaftermathoftheblast
S
evhilMusayeva-Borovyk,thechiefeditoratUkrayinskaPravda,toldRFE/RLthatshebelievesSheremet'skillingwasrelatedto
hiswork.OthercolleaguesatthewebsitetoldRFE/RLthatherecentlyhadcomplainedthathewasbeingfollowed.
ColleaguessaidtheywerenotawareofaparticularpieceofreportingthatmighthavebeenamotivetokillSheremet.
RussianForeignMinistryspokeswomanMariaZakharovasaidSheremetwasrespectedasaprofessionalwhowasnotafraidto
telldifferentauthoritiesatdifferenttimesallthathethinksofthem.
BorninMinsk,thecapitalofBelarus,SheremethadlivedandworkedinKyivduringthelastfiveyearsasajournalistfor
UkrayinskaPravdaandapresenteratRadioVesti.HehadpreviouslyworkedformediainBelarusandRussia,wherehefaced
pressurefromauthoritiesforhiswork.
HehadbeeneditorinchiefofthepopularindependentweeklyBelarusBusinessNewsaswellasanchorandproducerof
Prospekt,anewsanalysisprogramonBelarusianstatetelevisionthatwasbannedbyPresidentAlyaksandrLukashenkain1995-
-ayearaftertheauthoritarianleaderselectionandaweekbeforeareferendumthatexpandedhispowers.
WATCH:EyewitnessAccountOfTheBlastThatKilledPavelSheremet
T
hefollowingyear,hebecametheMinskbureauchiefoftheRussiasORTtelevision.
Acrusaderforhumanrights,freedomofspeech,andfreedomofthepress,Sheremetwasarrestedwhileshootingareportabout
smugglingacrosstheBelarus-Lithuanianborderin1997andsentencedtotwoyearsinprison--amovewidelyviewedas
politicallymotivated.
AmnestyInternationaldeclaredhimprisonerofconscienceandhewasreleasedafterthreemonths,whenRussianPresidentBoris
Yeltsinintervened.
AcriticofLukashenka'spersistentcrackdownondissent,Sheremetwaspassionateaboutthefateofpeopleinwhodisappeared
inBelarusinthelate1990sandwereneverfound--includingthreeopponentsofLukashenkaaswellasSheremetscameraman,
DmitryZavadsky.
SheremetwasspokesmanfortheorganizationbehindCharter97,a1997declarationthatcalledfordemocracyandhumanrights
inBelarus.
DeliberatelyreflectingtheCharter77humanrightsdeclarationinCzechoslovakia20yearsearlier,theCharter97declaration
calledfordevotiontotheprinciplesofindependence,freedomanddemocracy,respectforhumanrights,andsolidaritywith
everybodywhostandsfortheeliminationofthedictatorialregimeandrestorationofdemocracyinBelarus.
UnderincreasingpressurefromLukashenkasgovernment,SheremetmovedtoMoscowin1998andbecamealeading
investigativeTVjournalist.HeproducedseveraldocumentariesincludingChechenDiary,WildHunt,andTheEmpiresLastYear.
S
heremetcontinuedtofacethreatsandharassmentinBelarus,wherehewasbadlybeatenwhilecoveringanelectionin2004.He
wasafounderofBelaruspartizan.org,apopularindependentnewswebsitethatfeaturesrelentlesscriticismofLukashenkas
government.
InJuly2014,afterhehadbeenlivingandworkinginUkraineforseveralyears,SheremetresignedfromtheRussianchannel
formerlycalledORTandnowChannelOne,sayingthatanyjournalistinRussiawhodaredtocontradicttheKremlinspropaganda
washounded.
Sheremet'sreportingearnedhimtheInternationalPressFreedomAwardfromtheCommitteetoProtectJournalists(CPJ)in
1998.
WhenauthoritiesinBelarusdeniedpermissionforSheremettotraveltoNewYorkfortheawardsceremony,theCommitteeto
ProtectJournalistsheldaspecialawardceremonyforhiminMinsk.
In2002,theOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE)awardedSheremetitsPrizeforJournalismand
DemocracyinrecognitionofhishumanrightsreportingintheBalkansandAfghanistan.
ThatawardhailedSheremetseffortstopromoteOSCEprinciplesonhumanrights,democracy,andtheunimpededflowof
information.
RelationsbetweenthemediaandgovernmentinUkrainewerepoisonedbythekillingofUkrayinskaPravdafounderHeorhiy
Gongadze,whowentmissinginSeptember2000,andsuccessiveUkrainiangovernmentshavebeenaccusedofrestrictingmedia
freedoms.
Gongadze'sheadlessbodywasfoundinthewoodsoutsideKyivthatNovember,butwasnotburieduntilMarchofthisyear.
Then-PresidentLeonidKuchmacameundersuspicionandwaschargedwithinvolvementin2011,butthechargeswerelater
dropped.Aformerpolicegeneralwassentencedtolifeinprisonin2012afterbeingconvictedofstranglingGongadzetodeath.
WithreportingbyRFE/RL'sBelarus,AP,Reuters,andTASS
USEmbassyKyiv
U.S.EmbassyStatementontheDeathofPavelSheremet
July20,2016
http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/statements/sheremet-07202016.html
WeareshockedandsaddenedatthenewsofthedeathofprominentjournalistPavelSheremet,whowaskilledinan
unprecedentedcarexplosioninKyivthismorning.
Pavelledalifeofpurposeandintegrityinmultiplecountries.Werespecthimasafearlesspractitionerandsupporteroffreedomof
speech,theRevolutionofDignity,andabrighterfutureforUkraine.
Wewelcomethestatementsbythepoliceandprosecutorgeneralthatthecircumstancessurroundinghismurderwillbefully
investigatedandanyperpetratorsbroughttojustice.WeextendoursympathiestohispartnerOlenaPrytula,hisfamily,his
colleaguesatUkrainskaPravda,andhismanyfriendsanddefendersoffreedomofmediaandspeechinUkraine.
OSCEPARLIAMENTARYASSEMBLY
PRESSRELEASES
OSCEPAhumanrightscommitteeChairIgnacioSanchezAmordeploresthekillingofjournalistPavelSheremet,calls
forexhaustiveinvestigation
COPENHAGEN,20July2016IgnacioSanchezAmor,theChairoftheOSCEParliamentaryAssemblysCommitteeon
Democracy,HumanRightsandHumanitarianQuestions,todaycondemnedthekillingofjournalistPavelSheremet,whichtook
placeearliertodayinKyiv,Ukraine.
IstronglycondemnthemurderofPavelSheremetandcallforapromptandexhaustiveinvestigation.Mydeepestsympathiesgo
outtoSheremetslovedonesandcolleagues,wholostabraveandesteemedjournalist,SanchezAmorsaid.
OriginallyfromBelarus,SheremetworkedinBelarus,RussiaandUkraineduringhiscareer.HehadlivedandworkedinKyivfor
thepastfiveyearsasajournalistforUkrayinskaPravdaandRadioVesti.
Throughouthiscareer,PavelSheremetshowedadmirablecourageinhisindependentandreliablereportinganddemonstratedthe
invaluableroleofjournalistsindefendinghumanrights,SanchezAmorsaid.
SheremetreceivedtheOSCEParliamentaryAssemblys2002PrizeforJournalismandDemocracyforhisworkinpromotionof
OSCEprinciplesofdemocracyandhumanrights.
OSCE
http://www.osce.org/fom/255226
OSCERepresentativecondemnsmurderofjournalistPavelSheremetinUkraine
VIENNA20July2016
JournalistPavelSheremetwaskilledinacarexplosioninKyivon20July2016.(UkrainskaPravda)
VIENNA,20July2016OSCEmediafreedomrepresentativeDunjaMijatovitodaycondemnedthemurderofjournalistPavel
SheremetinKyiv,Ukraine.
Thismorning,Sheremet,ajournalistwithRadioVestiandtheUkrainskayaPravdaonlinemediaoutlet,waskilledinacar
explosion.
Thiskillinganditscircumstancesmustbeswiftlyandthoroughlyinvestigated,andtheperpetratorsbroughttojustice,Mijatovi
said,notingPresidentPetroPoroshenkosstrongcondemnationoftheactandimmediateactiontoinvestigate.Wehavelosta
prominentanddedicatedjournalistandmysincerecondolencesgoouttoSheremetsfamily,friendsandcolleagues.
Sheremet,originallyofBelarusandrecipientofthe2002OSCEParliamentaryAssemblysPrizeforJournalismandDemocracy
(www.osce.org/pa/54293),workedasajournalistinUkraine,BelarusandRussiaduringhiscareer.
ThismorningsgruesomeincidentremindsusallthatthesafetysituationforjournalistsinUkrainemustbeaddressedeffectively
andtimely,Mijatovisaid.
TheRepresentativerecalledthemurderoftheprominentUkrainianjournalistGeorgyiGongadzein2001,thefounderof
UkrainskayaPravda,andreiteratedhercallontheauthoritiestofullyinvestigatethatcrime.
---------Forwardedmessage----------
Date:Wed,Jul20,2016at11:55AM
Subject:Ukraine:WSJ,NYT,WP,FT
TheWallStreetJournal
UpdatedJuly20,201611:42a.m.ET
OutspokenJournalistKilledinCarBombinginKiev
UkrainePresidentPetroPoroshenkovowsthoroughinvestigation,asksFBIforhelp
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-news-website-journalist-killed-in-car-explosion-1469000655
ByJamesMarson
MOSCOWAbombrippedthroughacarandkilledjournalistPavelSheremetintheUkrainiancapitalofKievonWednesday
morning,themosthigh-profileslayingofajournalistinthecountryinmorethan15years.
PresidentPetroPoroshenkoorderedapromptinvestigationintothekillingofMr.Sheremet,a44-year-oldBelarusianwho
workedfortheinvestigative-newssiteUkrainskaPravda,orUkrainianTruth.
AnexplosionrockedthecarinwhichMr.Sheremetwastravelingaround7:45a.m.incentralKiev.Photosfromthesceneshowed
aburnedredsport-utilityvehiclewithitswindowsblownoutanddebrisspreadacrossthestreet.UkrainskaPravdasaidthecar
belongedtoitsco-founderandMr.Sheremetspartner,OlenaPrytula,althoughshewasntinthecaratthetime.
AportraitofPavelSheremetissurroundedwithflowersandcandlesnearwherehewaskilledinKievonWednesday.PHOTO:
ASSOCIATEDPRESS
Atameetingwithtoplaw-enforcementofficialsonWednesdayafternoon,Mr.Poroshenkocalledtheinvestigationamatterofour
honor.HesaidhehadaskedforhelpfromtheFederalBureauofInvestigationandorderedofficialstoprovideprotectiontoMs.
Prytula.
UkrainianGeneralProsecutorYuriyLutsenkosaidthekillingcouldhavebeenmotivatedbyMr.Sheremetsprofessionalactivities
orcouldbeanattempttodestabilizethesituationinthecenterofthecapital.
Mr.Poroshenkonotedarecentincreaseinclashesinthecountryseast,wheregovernmentforcesarefightingRussian-backed
militants.
WemustnotforgetthatthecountryisdefendingitselffromtheRussianaggressorandthebestsonsofUkrainearegivingtheir
livesatthefront,hesaid.Wewontallowanyonetoopenasecondfrontwithinthecountry.
TheU.S.EmbassyinKievsaiditwelcome[d]thestatementsbythepoliceandprosecutorgeneralthatthecircumstances
surroundinghismurderwillbefullyinvestigatedandanyperpetratorsbroughttojustice.
IntwodecadesworkinginBelarus,RussiaandUkraine,Mr.Sheremetwonareputationasacrusadingjournalistcommittedto
freespeech.
AsatelevisionreporterinauthoritarianBelarus,hewasdetainedin1997andlaterhandedasuspendedsentenceforallegedly
crossingtheBelarusborderillegallywhilefilmingareportonsmuggling.HelaterworkedinMoscowforstatetelevisionchannels,
leavingoneprojectin2014sayinghewashoundedoutforhisbalancedreportingonRussiasannexationofCrimeaandsupport
forseparatistsineasternUkraine.
Inrecentyears,heworkedinUkrainewheremediaismuchfreerthaninitsauthoritarianneighborsforUkrainskaPravdaand
onradioandtelevisionshows.
UkrainskaPravda,Ukrainesmostfamousinvestigativewebsite,hasforyearsriledpoliticians,governmentofficialsandtycoons
withitspiercinginvestigationsintotheirdealings.Itshottoattentionin2000,whenitsco-founder,GeorgiyGongadze,was
kidnappedandbeheaded.Acourtconvictedapoliceofficerofcarryingoutthekillingin2013butdidntestablishwhoorderedthe
murder.PeopleclosetoMr.Gongadzehavelongaccusedtheformerpresident,LeonidKuchma,ofinvolvement,citingtape
recordingsmadebyoneofMr.Kuchmasbodyguards.Theformerpresidentdeniedanyinvolvementinthekilling.
JournalistsinKievsaidthemurderofMr.Sheremetlookedlikeanefforttoscarethem.
Itsanattempttoreturnself-censorshiptojournalistsandtowarneveryonewhoresolvestoinvestigatebrazentheftandgiant
financialmachinations,allthethingsthatpreventUkrainefromescapingitsfeudalsystem,wroteVitaliySych,editorofnews
magazineNovoyeVremya,orNewTime,inanonlinecommentary.
TheNewYorkTimes
UkraineSeesUlteriorMotivesAfterCarBombKillsJournalist
KIEVAnaward-winningjournalistworkingfortheonlineinvestigativewebsiteUkrayinskaPravdawaskilledbyacarbombin
centralKievearlyonWednesdaymorning,inwhatPresidentPetroPoroshenkosaidwasanattempttodestabilizeUkraine.
PavelSheremet,aBelarussianknownforhiscriticismofhishomecountry'sleadershipandhisfriendshipwiththeslainRussian
oppositionleaderBorisNemtsov,wasdrivingtoworkinthecarofthewebsite'sownerwhenitwasblownup.
ThekillingwasathrowbacktothedaysofviolenceagainstjournaliststhatUkraine,underapro-Westernleadershipsincethe
2014Maidanprotests,hopedtohaveshed.
"Itseemstomethiswasdonewithoneaiminmind-todestabilizethesituationinthecountry,possiblyaheadoffurtherevents,"
Poroshenkosaidintelevisedcomments.
HehasaskedexpertsfromtheU.S.FederalBureauofInvestigationtojointhemurderinvestigationintheinterestsof"maximum
transparency."
Advertisement
Earlier,seniorInteriorMinistryofficialssaidtheycouldnotruleoutRussianinvolvementinthemurder.
CONCERNINTHEKREMLIN
InMoscow,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaid:"ThemurderofaRussiancitizenandjournalistinUkraineisaveryserious
causeforconcernintheKremlin."
Sheremet,whowasgivenRussiancitizenshipafterfleeingpoliticalpersecutioninBelarus,hadtoldReutersinOctoberthatheno
longerfeltcomfortablevisitingMoscow,whereheworkedfortwelveyearsasaTVjournalist.
"I'mthreatenedoftenandgivenhints.EverytimeIgotoMoscow,it'slikeI'minaminefield,"hesaidinaninterview.
HealsosaidUkraineneededstrong,independentmediatocountertheinfluenceofoutletscontrolledbythecountry'spowerful
businesstycoons.
"Nowtheproblemoffreedomofspeechandobjectivejournalismisbecomingagainaseriousissue,"hesaid.
"Asfarasinternalpoliticsisconcerned,Icanseeoligarchicgamesagain,blackPR,theuseofmediatosettlescoresandsolve
politicalproblems."
SevgilMusayeva-Borovyk,theeditor-in-chiefofUkrayinskaPravda,whichhasmadeitsnameexposingcorruption,calledhim
"verybrave".
Itwasnotclearwhetherthebombhadbeensetoffbyremotecontroloratimer.
NEMTSOV'SFUNERAL
Sheremet'sfriendNemtsov,avocalcriticoftheKremlin,hadbeenworkingonareportexaminingtheRussianmilitary'sroleinthe
UkrainecrisiswhenhewasshotdeadincentralMoscowlastyear.Sheremetledtributesathismemorialservice.

"ThelasttimewemetwasatthefuneralofBorisNemtsov,andofcourseIcouldn'thaveknownthatasimilarthingwouldhappen
toPavel,"AnatolyLebedko,leaderoftheBelarussianoppositionpartyUnitedCivilParty,toldReuters.
In2002,SheremetwonajournalismprizefromtheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE)forhis
reportingonhumanrightsviolationsinBelarus,includingthedisappearancesofoppositionpoliticiansandjournalists.
TheOSCEcalledonWednesdayforactiontoaddressthesafetyofjournalistsinUkraine.
ThefounderofUkrayinskaPravda,GeorgiyGongadze,wasaninvestigativejournalistwhowasmurdered16yearsago,his
decapitatedbodydiscoveredinaforestoutsideKiev.
TheincidenthelpedtoprecipitatetheOrangeRevolutionof2004/05,whichresultedinanelectionre-runandthevictoryofan
oppositionpresidentialcandidate.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinets,SergeiKarazy,AlessandraPrenticeandMargarytaChornokondratenkoinKIEV,JackStubbsand
MariaTsvetkovainMOSCOWandAndreiMakhovskyinMINSKWritingbyMatthiasWilliamsEditingbyKevinLiffeyand
JohnStonestreet)
TheWashingtonPost
KasichwarnsagainstaTrumptakeoverofGOPforeignpolicy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2016/07/19/kasich-warns-against-a-trump-takeover-of-gop-foreign-policy/
ByJoshRogin
July19at5:57PM
CLEVELANDTheRepublicanPartymustrejectallofthefundamentalideasandvaluesthatunderpinDonaldTrumpsforeign
policy,OhioGov.JohnKasichsaidTuesdayafternooninCleveland.
AlthoughhedidntactuallynameTrump,KasichscommentsweretheclearestandmostcomprehensiverebukeofTrumpsforeign
policythatanyRepublicanhasmadehereinCleveland.MostoftheRepublicanleadersspeakingattheconventionhavedecided
towhitewashorwaterdowntheircriticismofTrumpsnationalsecurityideasinanefforttoprojectpartyunity.
ButKasich,whoisnotspeakingattheconventioninhisownstate,criticizedTrumpsforeignpolicyideasonebyoneandcalled
ontheGOPtomoveintheoppositedirectionforthesakeoftheUnitedStatesandtheworld.
Soweseeintheworldgrowingnationalism,growingisolationism,anti-immigrationandanti-trade.Now,ifyouputallthat
together,whatdoesthatstewlooklike?Whatdoesitmeanfortheworld?Whatdoesitmeanforstability?Whatdoesitmeanfor
relationships?KasichsaidataneventputonbytheInternationalRepublicanInstitute.Imveryworriedaboutit.Imvery,very
concerned.
Kasichsaidthatnationalismbecomesaproblemwhenitbecomestooinward-lookingandtooextreme.Hesaidanti-immigration
sentimentwasnothealthyandthatOhio,forone,needsandwelcomesimmigrationaspartofitsgrowthstrategy.Heattacked
thepresumptivenomineescallfortheUnitedStatestoreduceitsroleinNATOandletEuropeanalliestakeovermoreoftheir
ownsecurity.
WethinkNATOdoesntmatter?Arewekidding?Kasichsaid.
KasichsmostimpassionedindirectattackwasdirectedatTrumpsviewsonRussia,UkraineandVladimirPutin.Hecriticizedthe
ideathattheUnitedStatesshoulddisregardRussianbadbehaviorandworkwithRussiamore.
HereferencedmyMondayreportabouthowtheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektoremovelanguageinthe
GOPplatformthatwouldhavecalledforlethaldefensiveweaponsforUkraine.TheTrumpstaffweakenedthatlanguageto
appropriateassistance.
AslongasImbreathingair,ImforarmingtheUkrainianswhowanttofightforfreedom,saidKasich.Soitmusthavebeena
terriblemistakethatapparentlyarmingtheUkrainewassomehowleftoutoftheRepublicanplatform.
TheUnitedStatesshouldpushbackagainstRussianaggressionandnotplayintoPutinsstrategytoweakenrelationshipsbetween
theUnitedStatesandEuropeancountries,accordingtoKasich.HealsosaidBrexitwasbadfortheUnitedStatesbecause
BritainsvoiceinEuropeansecurityaffairswouldnowbeweakened.
WhowasthehappiestmanintheworldwiththeBrexit?VladimirPutin!hesaid.ImconcernedaboutRussianaggression.
TheKasichandTrumpteamshavebeentradingbarbsaboutRussiaandUkraineallweek.OnMonday,Kasichsformercampaign
managerJohnWeaverreferencedonTwitterthefactthatTrumpcampaignchairmanPaulManafortlobbiedfortheRussian-
backedformerpresidentofUkraine,ViktorYanukovych.
Lastly,KasichdefendedtheTrans-PacificPartnershipandfreetradedealsingeneral,thelastinalonglineofcriticismsofthe
foreignpolicyplanksTrumphasbasedhiscampaignon.
Tradeisnotonlyaneconomicissue,butwhenIlookatTPP,Idontthinkwecanaffordtowalkawayfromallourfriendsin
Asia,hesaid.
Tradeisnotjustanissueofeconomics,itsanissueofglobalsecurity.
Sen.MarcoRubio(R-Fla.)wasstillfeigningoptimismaboutTrumpsforeignpolicyTuesdayafternoonwhenCNNsJakeTapper
askedhimaboutTrumpscozinesswithRussia.RubiosaidhedisagreedwithTrumpbutperhapsTrumpwillevolveifelected
president.
MyhopeisthatwhenDonaldTrumpgetsthere,thathechangeshisopiniononthingsbasedoninformationthathehasaccessto
thathedoesnthaveaccesstonow,saidRubio.
ButTrumpandhiscampaignhavebeenveryclearthattheirforeignpolicyagendaisbasedonwhattheytrulybelieveandwillnot
changeifheselectedpresident.WhatwouldchangeisthefundamentalnationalsecuritystanceoftheGOP.
FinancialTimes
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/72925b56-4daf-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc.html#ixzz4ExfJr2Ik
July19,20165:32pm
Ukrainefightingthreatenstoreignitefull-scaleconflict
ByRomanOlearchykinKiev
UkrainestopmilitarycommanderpromisedanadequateresponseaftersevenUkrainiansoldierswerekilledand14injuredin
thepast24hoursinfightingwithRussian-backedseparatistscontrollingthecountrysbreakawayfareast.
Thebattlesmarkoneofthebloodiestdaysoffightingthisyear,asanuptickinthedailyshellingandgunfirethreatenstoreignitefull-
scalefightinginasmouldering26-monthconflictthathasclaimednearly10,000lives.
Theheightenedhostilitiesarealsoastarkreminderthatwhilelastyearsinternationallybrokeredpeaceaccordsucceededin
reducingthefightingfrompeak2014levels,theso-calledMinskagreementshavefailedtodeliveralastingceasefireorprogress
onreintegratingthewar-torneastwiththerestofUkraine.
MysoulhurtsforeachlifeofoursoldierssacrificedforUkraine...therewillbeanadequateresponse,ViktorMuzhenko,the
headofUkrainesarmedforces,pledgedonTuesday.
SeparatistrepresentativesaccusedKievforcesofstirringupfreshhostilesbyshellingitspositionsandresidentialneighbourhoods.
ThearmedforcesofUkraineareconductingasystemicbuild-upofartilleryfire,EduardBasurin,deputydefenceministerforthe
Donetsk-basedseparatists,saidonTuesday.
UkraineofficialssaidtheiropponentswerestokingthehostilitiesbysteppingupattacksalongfrontlinesintheDonetskand
Luganskregions.
SpeakingontelevisionlateonMonday,YevhenMarchuk,aformerintelligencechiefandKievrepresentativeintheMinskpeace
talks,saidRussiacontinuedtosupplyarmsandfighterstotheregionandthatcombinedRussianandseparatistforceshadmore
tanksthanmanyEuropeancountriescombined.Thereare702tanksontheotherside...modernisedtanks,readyforcombat,
hesaid.
Russiacontinuestofaceinternationaleconomicsanctionsoverits2014annexationoftheCrimeanpeninsulaandallegedroleinthe
conflictinUkraineseast.Moscowdeniesclaimsthatitengineeredtheconflictandthatitissupplyingseparatistswithmilitary
equipmentandgroundtroops.
BriefingjournalistslastFriday,AlexanderHug,deputyheadofaceasefiremonitoringmissionfromtheOrganisationforSecurity
andCo-operationinEurope,urgedbothsidestopullback,warningthatmanyoftheproscribedweaponsweseearesituated
veryclosetoresidentialareas.
NotingthatwhilebothsidesintheconflictclaimtheyareadheringtotheMinskcommitments,includingwithdrawalofallheavy
weapons,thiswassimplynottrue,hesaid.
From:MarkVonHagen<Mark.Vonhagen@asu.edu>
Date:Wed,Jul20,2016at12:09PM
Subject:FW:Pressrelease-Ukraine:JournalistKilledinKievCarExplosion
[ED:IMPORTANTQUOTE..BOUNDTOBEREPEATEDBY'RUTROLLS'EVERYWHERE:
Ukrainianauthoritieshaverepeatedlypromisedtoprosecuteandpreventattacksonjournalists,
Denbersaid.TheUkrainiangovernmentshouldkeepthesepromisesandbringtojusticepeople
whoattackjournalistssothatUkraineisasafecountrytospeakonesmind.]
From:<ownereca_ac@listserv.hrw.org>onbehalfofKathrynZehr<zehrk@hrw.org>
Date:Wednesday,July20,2016at8:16AM
To:"eca_ac@listserv.hrw.org"<eca_ac@listserv.hrw.org>
Subject:PressreleaseUkraine:JournalistKilledinKievCarExplosion
http://www.hrw.org/news/2016/07/20/ukraine-journalist-killed-kiev-car-explosion
Ukraine:JournalistKilledinKievCarExplosion
Immediate,EffectiveInvestigationNeeded
(Berlin)UkrainianauthoritiesshouldensurethattheinvestigationintothekillingofthejournalistPavelSheremet,iseffective,
impartial,andthoroughHumanRightsWatchsaidtoday.SheremetwaskilledonJuly20,2016inKievinacarexplosionthatthe
authoritiessaidwascausedbyanexplosivedevice.
Sheremetwasknownforoftenraisinghumanrightsissuesinhiswork,andforhisbitingcriticismofauthoritiesandanti-corruption
investigations.Althoughatthisstage,thefullfactssurroundingtheexplosion,includingthosepotentiallyresponsibleandmotives,
areunknown,pastunresolvedattacksonjournalistshavehadachillingeffectonmediafreedominUkraine.
Sheremetsdeathisahugelossandstrikingreminderthatthegovernmentneedstorespondinthemostseriouswaytothreatsto
mediafreedominUkraine,saidRachelDenber,deputyEuropeandCentralAsiadirectoratHumanRightsWatch.Ukrainian
authoritiesshouldmakeapromptandmeaningfulinvestigationapriority,consideringallthemotivesfortheattack,including
Sheremetsandhispartnersmediawork.
MediareportssaidthatSheremetscarblewupshortlyafterhedroveoffinitatabout7:45a.m.Thecarbelongedtohispartner,
OlenaPrytula,theownerofUkrainskayaPravda,apopularonlinenewsoutletwhereSheremetalsoworked.Itwasreportedthat
Prytulawasnotinthecaratthetimeoftheexplosion.
TheRussiannewspaperNovayaGazetareportedthatSheremetandPrytulahadrecentlycomplainedaboutbeingfollowed.
Sheremet,44,wasborninMinsk,Belarus,andworkedthereandinRussiaasatelevisionhostandjournalist.Hewasharassedfor
hisworkinBelarusandevenarrestedin1997and2004.ForthepastfiveyearshehadbeenbasedinUkraine,workingfor
UkrainskayaPravdaandasapresenterattheVestiradiostation.
Sheremetsjournalisticworkwasinternationallyrecognized.HereceivedtheCommitteetoProtectJournalistsInternationalPress
FreedomAwardin1999andtheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEuropesPrizeforJournalismandDemocracyin
2002.
Severalhoursaftertheexplosion,Ukrainesprosecutorgeneral,YuriLutsenko,calledthejournalistsdeathamurderina
Facebookpost.HewrotethatSheremetscarhadblownupasaresultofanexplosivedevice.Hepromisedtodoeverythingwe
cantofindthosewhodidthis.PresidentPetroPoroshenkowroteinaFacebookpostthathehadorderedlawenforcement
authoritiestocarryoutapromptinvestigation.TheheadofUkrainesnationalpoliceforceKhatiaDekanoidzesaidshewould
personallytakechargeofthecase.TheInteriorMinistryhasopenedaninvestigation,categorizingSheremetsdeathaspre-
mediatedmurder.
GeorgiyGongadze,aUkrainianinvestigativejournalistwhofoundedUkrainskayaPravda,whereSheremetworked,was
kidnappedandbrutallykilledin2000.
InApril2015,aprominentpro-Russianjournalist,OlesBuzina,wasshotandkilledinKiev.Thetrialofthetwomenchargedwith
Buzinasmurderisongoing.
Beyondupholdingtherightstofreedomofexpressionandthemedia,governmentshaveanobligationtoprevent,investigate,and
appropriatelyprosecuteabusesagainstjournalists.TheUNHumanRightsCommittee,thebodyofindependentexpertsthat
providesauthoritativeinterpretationsoftheInternationalCovenantonCivilandPoliticalRights(ICCPR),hasmadeclearthat
governmentsviolatetheirobligationsundertheICCPRwhentheyfailtotakenecessarystepstopreventabusescausedbyprivate
actors:governmentsmusttakeappropriatemeasuresorexerciseduediligencetoprevent,punish,investigateorredressthe
harmcausedbysuchactsbyprivatepersonsorentities.
Ukrainianauthoritieshaverepeatedlypromisedtoprosecuteandpreventattacksonjournalists,Denbersaid.TheUkrainian
governmentshouldkeepthesepromisesandbringtojusticepeoplewhoattackjournalistssothatUkraineisasafecountryto
speakonesmind.
From:OfficeofMilitaryAdviser,PermanentMissionofUkraine<ukrmilad@gmail.com>
Subject:UA_JOC_Brief_14092016
Cc:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
DearPaneWaltere!

Attachedyouwillfindafileasusual..
Withbestregards
Andriy
Colonel Andriy Yakovliev
Deputy Representative of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
to the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the United Nations,
Deputy Military adviser
Tel.: 1 (212) 759-7003, ext.120, 128
Fax: 1 (212) 335-9455
Senttime: 07/20/201609:03:46AM
Subject: FW:"Ukraine,BelarusandRussiareacttoPAVELSHEREMETMURDER,"themoscowtimes.com,7/20[HewaskilledbyaCARBOMBinKyiv]
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"Ukraine,BelarusandRussiareacttoPAVELSHEREMETMURDER,"themoscowtimes.com,7/20[HewaskilledbyaCARBOMB
inKyiv]
And:FBIexpertsjoinPavelSHEREMETsmurderinvestigationinUkraine,meduza.io,7/20[English]
And:POROSHENKOcalledthegoalofShremetsmurdertheDESTABILIZATIONofUkraine,
UkrainianlawenforcementofficialshavenotedaRussianevidenceTRAIL.
And:NewLEVADACENTERpoll:19%ofRussianswouldliketoLEAVEthecountry[75%donotwantto
doso],http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27867573.html
And:UkrainianpollconductedbySOFIA:Morethan60%ofUkrainiansadmitthepossibilityofa
FULLSCALEWARwithRussia[31%saythereisnosuchthreat],
http://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/8897393.shtml
And:StanislavBELKOVSKIIonthesharpconflicttakingplacebetweentheInvestigationsCommittee
andtheFSB:http://echo.msk.ru/programs/beseda/1805126echo/
And:LeonidBershidsky,TRUMPsmanager[PaulMANAFORT]isamasterofpostSovietbusiness,
Bloomberg.com,7/20
IfTrumpwins[theelection],Manafortandhiscolleaguesontheteamcanbereliedtokeepthese
unofficialcommunicationlines[toRussianbigbusinessandwealthyRussians]open.TheTrump
campaignhaskeptofftheRepublicanPartyplatformanypledgetohelpUkrainewithitscampaign
againstRussianbackedseparatists.ImsureitsdulynotedinMoscow.
And:RussianSPORTinthedock,themsocowtimes.com,7/20
And:RussiasSECONDmostpowerfulman[IgorSECHIN]building$60millionhomenearMoscow,
themoscowtimes.com,7/20
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKY,Amurderputoffforthreeyears,kasparov.ru,7/19
DetaileddiscussionofanewfourpartdefactobookbyI.MurzinentitledSakralnayazhertva,
whichhasbeenpostedonkasparov.ru.ThebookisentirelydevotedtotheassassinationofBoris
NEMTSOVandexaminesallthevideomaterialavailable.
And:RussiaacquitsPRIMORSKYPARTISANSofmurderinretrial,rferl.org,7/20
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/19/201602:28:36PM
Subject: RE:YouwrotealotaboutDovgiy,Wayne(somebitsfrommemory)
Yes.Stacyiscomingwithmethisyear.Wellbeuptheretomorrowafternoon,leavingSaturdayAM.ThursdayatHQ,then
OSC.MeetingBillCrimminsfordinnerthatevening.IseeyouonFridayAMandImdone.
From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
To:WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject:Re:YouwrotealotaboutDovgiy,Wayne(somebitsfrommemory)
Youleavetomorrow?AnneisbtwntripstoMontana.Sheleavesagainnextweek.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul19,2016,at5:04PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:
Well,OK.Butapartfromallthegoodmaterialyousend,yourendorsementofmyworkwentalongwayingetting
peopletoreadit.Almostdonewithtodaystake,thenIvegotsomethingstodotogetreadyforthetrip.

From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]

Youdon'towemeanything,Wayne,absolutelyanything.
SentfrommyiPad
IvealwaysvaluedourfriendshipandcooperationverymuchIoweyoualot.


Wecouldbewatchingthestartoftheunraveling?Strelkovisready.

Asforappreciation,collaboratingwithyouhasbeenoneofthehighlightsofmylife.


IrememberDovgiy,andBulbov,Aulov.Ihadforgotthedetails.Imusingthethirdof
yourStrelkovsummariestoday.Ireallyappreciateyourtakingthetimetodothose.
SeeyouonFriday.

Subject:YouwrotealotaboutDovgiy,Wayne(somebitsfrommemory)

AsidefromNikandrov(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabig
role(moreprominentifmemoryserves)inthecaseaginstDovgiy.Dovgiy
andBastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,
butlaterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)and
probablyKumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe(trumped
up)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.DovgiythenturnedtoKhinshteynand
allegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpupchargesagstthetwo

Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBsDirectorate
MarrestedKalashovdaysago..andMaksimovonceworkedthereas
wellaccordingtothenewsrustoryonthislatestdevelopment.

Novirusfoundinthismessage.
CheckedbyAVG-www.avg.com
Version:2016.0.7688/VirusDatabase:4627/12644-ReleaseDate:07/19/16

Senttime: 07/19/201612:27:54PM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Subject: IntensificationoftheClanStruggle(FSBdetainsSKOfficials)
AsidefromNikandrov&Dovgiy(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(moreprominentif
memoryserves)inthecaseaginstDovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolay
Aulov(thenMVD,butlaterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)andprobably
Kumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.Dovgiy
thenturnedtoKhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpupchargesagstthetwo
Atanyrate,whatgoesaroundcomesaround(sorta):theFSBsDirectorateMarrestedKalashovdays
ago..andMaksimovonceworkedthereaswellaccordingtothenewsrustoryonthislatestdevelopment.
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-zaderzhaniya-trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-stala-versiya-o-pokrovitelstve-
banditam.html
16:52,:14854
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Elements,14
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.
Senttime: 07/19/201612:05:09PM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: YouwrotealotaboutDovgiy,Wayne(somebitsfrommemory)
AsidefromNikandrov(notedinthestory)Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(moreprominentifmemory
serves)inthecaseaginstDovgiy.DovgiyandBastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolayAulov
(thenMVD,butlaterFSKNonlytosurfaceintheSpanishindictmentlastyear)andprobablyKumarin.At
anyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.Dovgiythenturnedto
KhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhadmadehimtrumpupchargesagstthetwoprominentvictimsofthe
silovikiwarBulbovandStorchak.
Senttime: 07/19/201611:45:26AM
To: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:--
Thanks,Gene,thisisanupdateofaMKstoryIreadearlier.AsidefromNikandrov(notedinthestory)
Maksimenkoalsoplayedabigrole(moreprominentifmemoryserves)inthecaseaginstDovgiy.Dovgiy
andBastrykin,oncetight,hadafallingoutoverNikolayAulov(thenMVD,butlaterFSKNonlytosurface
intheSpanishindictmentlastyear)andprobablyKumarin.Atanyrate,Maksimenkowastheleadinthe
(trumpedup)briberycaseagainstDovgiy.DovgiythenturnedtoKhinshteynandallegedthatBastrykinhad
madehimtrumpupchargesagstthetwoprominentvictimsofthesilovikiwarBulbovandStorchak.
http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/07/19/prichinoy-zaderzhaniya-trekh-rukovoditeley-skr-stala-versiya-o-
pokrovitelstve-banditam.html
Senttime: 07/19/201612:15:38PM
FW:["VLADBREAKINGREALLYREALLYBAD"----ONSTEROIDSandGOINGYAHOO!!]APRoundup:THELATESTONROPING
Subject: THERUDOPERS.Fwd:RussianOrthodoxNationalists&USYahoosForminga'TraditionalistInternational'!!!.[ThreePBMemos]
AnakondaKabukiKer
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,July19,20169:32AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:["VLADBREAKINGREALLYREALLYBAD"----ONSTEROIDSandGOINGYAHOO!!]APRoundup:THELATESTONROPINGTHE
RUDOPERS.Fwd:RussianOrthodoxNationalists&USYahoosForminga'TraditionalistInternational'!!!.[ThreePBMemos]
AnakondaKabukiKerr...
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Subject:NewsfromTheAssociatedPress[ED:THELATESTONROPINGTHERUDOPERS]
To:waz<waz2102@columbia.edu>
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OLY_RUSSIAN_DOPING_THE_LATEST?
SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:RussianOrthodoxNationalists[ED:WelcometotheTraditionalist(YAHOO!!)InternationalSporting
BlackRathertheRedoftheGoodOl'CommieInternational]
GotthisfromMS:
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79686
USHateGroupForgingTieswiththeThirdRome
July15,2016-1:50pm,byCaseyMichel
Russia
UnitedStates
EurasiaNet'sWeeklyDigest
Intwophotospostedtohispersonalsocialmedianetworks,MatthewHeimbachstandswithotherwhitenationalistsunderneaththeNovorossiyaflagina
photohepublishedinMay2016tohispersonalTwitteraccount(top)andhestandsnexttoaflagusedtorepresentthepresidentofRussiainaphotohe
publishedtohispersonalpageontheRussiansocialmediawebsiteVKontakteinAugust2015.Heimbach,anAmericancitizen,claimsthatRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinisthebestEuropeanleaderofthe21stcentury.(Photos:MatthewHeimbach/VKontakteTwitter)
MatthewHeimbachisaburly,bearded25-year-oldpropagatorofhate.InlateJune,membersofafringegroupheleads,theself-
proclaimedTraditionalistWorkerParty,playedapivotalroleinstartingabrawlinSacramento,California.

Nextweek,groupmembersintendtobeinCleveland,siteoftheRepublicanPartyconvention,vowingtodobattlewithanyliberal
protesterswhotrytodisrupttheproceedings.

ItalsohappensthatHeimbach,aself-describedwhitenationalist,isahugefanofRussianleaderVladimirPutin.PresidentPutin
isthebestEuropeanleaders[sic]ofthe21stcentury,Heimbachtweetedearlierthisyear,scatteringhispraise
among#HailPutinand#PutinForTsarhashtags.AccordingtoHeimbachsviewoftheworld,RussiaunderPutinhasreassert[ed]
itselfasthedefenderofChristendomandtheThirdRome,andhasdemonstratedarediscoveredpurposeofsupportingTradition,
Christianity,andidentity.

ThememesthatHeimbachhypesPutinasadefenderofChristianityandtheKremlinasadefenderofsupposedlytraditional
valuesaresimilartothoseespousedbypro-MoscowelementsinEurope.However,uptothispoint,suchideashavegainedlittle
tractionamongAmericanpoliticalactivists.

Heimbachisworkinghardtochangethat.

Putinistheleader,really,oftheanti-globalistforcesaroundtheworld,HeimbachtoldEurasiaNet.org.AlthoughtheKremlinhas
beenslowtoaddressRussiasdeepeningeconomicwoes,HeimbachmaintainsPutinhasdisplayedaconsistentwillingnessto
standupforthebestinterestsofRussia.

Heimbachspartypromotesahandfulofhard-rightgoals,rangingfromthecreationofethnicallyseparatepolitiestotherevocation
ofbirthrightcitizenshipintheUS.ItalsoseekstheremovalofUSauthorityfromoccupiedterritoriesincludingstateslikeHawaii
andanendtodiscriminationagainstwhites.

HeimbachpersonallyhasbeencharacterizedasaLittleFuhrerbytheSouthernPovertyLawCenter.Hehasalsobeennamed
inaviolence-relatedlawsuitforhisactionsatarecentrallyforTrump.HefirstgainednotorietywhenhefoundedaWhiteStudent
Unionin2012atMarylandsTowsonUniversity.HetoldEurasiaNet.orgthathefirstgotontoRussiaafterhisconversionto
RussianOrthodoxyafewyearsagounderthetutelageofhispriest,MatthewRaphaelJohnson.

TheKremlinsNovorossiyaproject,whichwouldcreateanindependentstateineasternUkraine,hasplayedanoutsizedrolein
HeimbachssupportforRussiahepostedaphotoinearlyMayofhimself,alongwithotherwhitenationalists,underneaththe
Novorossiyaflag.

Johnson,theOrthodoxpriest,hostsapodcastentitledTheOrthodoxNationalist,andhasseenhisworkpromotedonthewhite
supremacistwebsiteStormfront.Heimbach,however,hasproventoomuchforStormfrontthewebsitesbackersbannedHeimbach
fromfutureeventsafterhecalledforbreak-upoftheUnitedStatesinpursuitofanall-whiteethno-state.

Oflate,HeimbachhasattemptedtoactasabridgebetweenMoscowandwhiteextremistsintheUnitedStates.Hehasalso
workedtointegratehisgroupwithlike-mindedfringeentitiesinEuropealmostallofwhichseeMoscowasapotentialsourceof
fiscalandmoralsupport.IseeRussiaaskindoftheaxisfornationalists,saidHeimbach,whooncehosteda2015rallyinwhich
bothRussianandConfederateflagsflew.Andthatsnotjustnationaliststhatarewhitethatsallnationalists.

HeimbachsaidhewasplanningonattendingtheupcomingWorldNationalConservativeMovementconferenceinRussia,originally
scheduledforthisspring,butpostponeduntilthisfall.ThemainpurposeoftheForumistopromotethecreationofacommon
Russian-Europeanconservativeelitegroup,whichunitesthepolitical,industrial,economicandreligiouseliteofRussiaand
Europe,Americaandothercountries,accordingtoastatementbytheRussianImperialMovement(RIM),whichisorganizingthe
conference.

Atasimilarconferencestagedin2015,severalspeakers,includingAmericanwhitesupremacists,expressedadesireforthe
nationalliberationofEurope.

Whenaskedabouttheupcomingconference,NicholasTruschalov,aRIMrepresentative,toldEurasiaNet.orgviaemailthatthe
goalsoftheForumare,firstly,thecoordinationandintegrationofactionsofnational-patriotsfromallthecountriesandcontinents
oftheworld.AsHeimbachseesit,theRIMinitiativemarksthefirststeptowardscreatinganofficialnationalistumbrella
organizationforTraditionalistsaroundtheglobe.

TheRussianImperialMovementwhichdescribesitsideologyasChristianOrthodoximperialnationalismdoesnothideits
tiestotheKremlin.AsAntonShekhovtsov,aresearcherofEuropeanfar-rightmovements,found,theRussianImperialMovement
aroseinpartfromtheeffortsofRodina,aRussianpoliticalpartyfoundedbyDeputyPrimeMinisterDmitryRogozin.

ThegroupsstatedgoalsaresimilartothosepursuedbytheKremlin,includingtheneutralizationoftheEUandNATO.

ThosewhoaregatheringundertheRIMsumbrella,includingHeimbach,claimtoespousesupportforallnationalists,regardlessof
ethnicityorstate.Butwhenaskedifsuchsupportappliestootherpost-Sovietstatessay,toKazakhstanorUkraineHeimbach
struggledtoovercomethetensionbetweensupportingnationalistobjectivesandsupportingRussianclaimstoasphereof
influence.[UkrainianPresidentPetro]PoroshenkoisJewish,HeimbachtoldEurasiaNet.org.Ahugenumberofgovernorsare
Jewish.TheyrenotethnicUkrainians.SohowcanyoubeanationalistfightingtoalignyournationwiththeEUandwithNATO,
andthegovernmentisntevenbeingrunbynativeUkrainians?

Fortherecord,PoroshenkosaysheisnotJewish.

Ashestrivestobuildsupportforhisgroup,hopingtosteeritfromthefringeintothemainstream,Heimbachiscountingon
Moscowssupport.Russiasourmostpowerfulally,hesaid.ImaginewhatcouldhappentoourpartywhenRussiatakesinterest.

Moscowremainsthelinchpinwithintheburgeoningallianceoftrans-Atlanticnationalists,Heimbachadded.[Theupcoming
conferenceinRussia]isabroadcoalitionofallethno-nationalistsallnationaliststhatrejectneoliberalism,andrejectglobalism,
comingtogetherasaunitedfront,basedoutofRussia,Heimbachsaid.DuringtheSovietperiod,therewastheComintern,the
CommunistInternational.Andinthemodernera,itsalmostlikeanationalistversionortheTraditionalistInternational.
Subject:WhyNATODidn'tFlyItsFlagAtAnakonda[ED:EverSeeaGermanVersionofKabukiDancing???]
NATOmayhaveUA'sback,butUA'sa--maybeexposed.Lookslikethebackgroundmusicwastothetuneof,"Gee,
Vlad,wemaybeattheparty,butwe'rereallynotgoingtodance!"
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/omr/roadtowarsaw/2016/07/17/why-nato-didnt-fly-its-flag-anakonda/87041734/
Subject:KerryurgesTurkeytomaintaindemocraticprinciplesaftercoupattempt-TheWashingtonPost[ED:Justa
Reminder:PBwasHeadofCAUkesforBO/JBin2008&2012hence(quitepossibly)theangerexpressed]
Wow!AnothersingledigitstrokeofWhiteHouseGenius!NowthatUKhastosseditselfoutofEU,let'stossTurkeyoutof
NATO!That,sureasheck,willteachthoseTurkshowtobehave!WhatwouldbetterdemonstrateWashington'scommitmentto
thedefenseofdemocracymorethantosavePutinthetroubleofdestroyingNATObyblowingitupourselvesfromtheinside!
JethroBodinecouldn'thaveciphereditoutanybetter!
NoTurkey,NoNATO.HappyPutin.WhatawonderfullegacyforBOtoleaveinhiswake!Stockholm,polishupthatsecond
NobelPeacePrize!So,what'sforlunch?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kerry-warns-turkey-nato-membership-potentially-at-stake-in-
crackdown/2016/07/18/f427ba8a-4850-11e6-8dac-0c6e4accc5b1_story.html
Subject:UkrainianNationalistsClaimCyberattackOnPolishDefenseMinistry[ED:Readinconjunctionwithstory
aboveabouttheTraditionalInternationalthattheRUOrthodoxTalibanandtheUSYahoosareforming]
Putin'slongtimeKGBclonesinUAstokethefirestocracktheUAPolishalliance.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/cyber/2016/07/15/cyberattack-ukraine-poland-classified-
hackers/87134028/
Subject:CheckoutHowthefailedTurkishcouphelpsPutin|TheHill[ED:OhBoy!!WonderWhatFotosVladHasOn
TR'sErdogan!!]
To:Romashka1@aol.com,waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,Staff@ukrweekly.com
HowthefailedTurkishcouphelpsPutin|TheHill
LongtimeMiddleEastexpertAlexanderShumilin,directoroftheCenterfortheAnalysisofMiddleEastConflictsatthe
RussianAcademyofSciences'InstituteforU.S.andCanadianStudies,toldmeinanemailhealsothinksthefailedcoup
willlikelybringRussiaandTurkeyclosertogether.Anumberofeventspointtothis,hesays,suchasthefactthat
ErdoansaidthecouporganizerswerethesameoneswhoshotdowntheRussianplaneinNovember2015,
Erdoan'sharshresponsetothecoupmaycomplicatehisrelationswiththeWest,andrepressionsinthearmy"may
meantakingofftheagendathepossibilityof'PlanB'inSyria(togetherwithSaudiArabia)."
ProminentRussiananalystLiliaShevtsovanotesthatErdoan,knowingthattheWestneedsTurkeyanditsairbases,is
"blackmailing"theWestintoignoringhisharshrepressions.Shesaysthatauthoritariansoftheworldarewatchinghow
theWestresponds."WhattheTurkishleaderisdoingwillbecometextbookforotherleaders,dreamingofabsolute
power,"sheconcludes,"whiletheWestisthinkinghowtorespond...thinkingslowly."
Senttime: 07/19/201608:43:55AM
Subject: FW:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvetigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvetigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
RussiasFederalSecurityService(FSB)havedetainedseveralemployeesoftheMoscowdepartment
oftheRussianInvestigativeCommittee,includingdeputyheadDenisNIKANDROVTheFSBbegana
And:MK.rudiscussesthearrestofNiklandrovandtwootherhighrankingSKRofficials:
http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1478102/
[MichaelFLYNN]leadscrowd[atRepublicanConvention]inantiHillarychant:Lockherup,
yahoo.com/news.7/18
appearedtoacknowledgeforthefirsttimethathewasPAIDtoflytoMoscowlastDecemberand
speakataneventcelebratingthe10thanniversaryofRT,theRussianTVchannelthatregularly
promotestheKremlinline
And:17pageinterviewwithNatalyaPOKLONSKAYA,thePutiniteProcuratorofCRIMEA:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73893.html?print=1
And:SevenUkrainiansoldiersKILLEDinclasheswithproRussianseparatists,
themsocowtimes.com,7/19
Senttime: 07/18/201610:12:49AM
Subject: FW:"TRUMPcampaigngutsGOP'santi-RussiastanceonUKRAINE,"washingtonpost.com,7/18Repostedonkyivpost.com,7/18
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"TRUMPcampaigngutsGOP'santi-RussiastanceonUKRAINE,"washingtonpost.com,7/18Repostedonkyivpost.com,7/18
TheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektomakesurethenewRepublicanplatform
WONTcallforgivingweaponstoUkrainetofightRussianandrebelforces,contradictingtheviewof
almostallRepublicanforeignpolicyleadersinWashington.Throughoutthecampaign,Trumphasbeen
dismissiveofcallsforsupportingtheUkrainegovernmentasitfightsanongoingRussianled
intervention.Trumpscampaignchairman,PaulManafort,workedasalobbyistfortheRussiabacked
formerUkrainianpresidentViktorYanukovychformorethanadecadeDianaDenman,aplatform
memberfromTexaswhowasaTedCruzsupporter,proposedaplatformamendmentthatwouldcall
formaintainorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,increasingaidforUkraineandprovidinglethal
defensiveweaponstotheUkrainianmilitary.Trumpstaffersintheroom,whoarenotdelegatesbut
theretooverseetheprocess,intervened.ByworkingwithproTrumpdelegatestheywereabletoget
theissuetabledwhiletheydevisedamethodtorollbackthelanguage.
And:RussianofficialsranDOPINGprogramsinmultipleOlympicsports,WADAinvestigationfinds,
washingtonpost.com,7/18
And:PutinpeersintoshadowswhereTHIRTYMILLION[Russians]toilonfringes,Bloomberg.com,
7/14
And:WADAsaysRussianstateinvolvedinDOPINGscandal,themoscowtimes.com,7/18
And:VladimirFROLOV,HowterrorattacksgiftRussiaforeignpolicyopportunity,
themoscowtimes.com,7/18oped
And:RussianGUNforHIRE[RinatAKHMETSHIN]lurksinshadowsofWashingtonsLOBBYING
world,rferl.org,7/18
And:IsiteasytobecomeaPutinGUARDSMAN[i.e.,soldierinthenewNationalGuard]?An
investigationbySobesednik,sobesednik.ru,7/18
And:WhatarewehavingforourIMIGINARYDINNER?
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/73880.html?print=1
AcorrespondentofNovayaGazetaspentthenightwithmothersoflargefamilieswhoareconducting
ahungerstrikeintheofficeofUnitedRussiainordertoobtainapartmentspromisedtothem.
Senttime: 07/13/201609:36:49AM
Subject: FW:NYTimes:JamesStavridis,RetiredAdmiral,IsBeingVettedasHillaryClintonsRunningMate
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
To:SocorVladimirOlegKravchenkoOlevsNikersPavelShidlovskyPaulGobleWillemdeVogel
ClintonSmullyanJrMichaelE.KavoukjianKTMcFarlandRobSpringWimbushS.EndersMatthewC
zekajPavelFelgenhauerPavelBaevZaurShiriyevPeterWoodAldenWahlstrom
Burnley,JamesH.,IVMichaelWSRyanNickHerasTimothyJ.KeatingFrankKeatingJamesHau
slein
Subject:NYTimes:JamesStavridis,RetiredAdmiral,IsBeingVettedasHillaryClintonsRunningM
ate
HillaryClintonscampaignisvettingJamesG.Stavridis,aretiredfour-starNavyadmiralwhoser
vedasthe16thsupremealliedcommanderatNATO,asapossiblerunningmate,accordingtoaperso
nwithknowledgeofthevettingprocess.
SomeclosetoMrs.Clinton,theformersecretaryofstate,sayshewasalwayslikelytohavesomeo
newithmilitaryexperienceonhervice-presidentialshortlist,andMr.Stavridis,currentlythed
eanoftheFletcherSchoolatTuftsUniversity,fitsthedescription.
DuringhisfouryearsasNATOssupremealliedcommander,heoversawoperationsintheMiddleEast
Afghanistan,LibyaandSyriaaswellasintheBalkansandpiracyoffthecoastofAfrica.
TheClintoncampaigndeclinedrequestsforcomment,andMr.Stavridisdeclinedtocommentotherth
anreferringcallstothecampaign.Thepersonwithknowledgeofthevettingspokeanonymouslybec
auseofthesensitivenatureoftheprocess.
In2012,Mr.Stavridiswasinvestigatedforhavingimproperlyusedamilitaryaircrafttoflywith
hiswifetoanexclusivepartyinBurgundy,Francewithwinemakers.
HewaslaterclearedofmisconductafteralongPentagoninvestigationintohistravelandexpense
s,includingtripshetookwithhiswife,daughterandmother.ThePentagoninspectorgeneralsre
portultimatelyconcludedthathehadfailedtoexercisesufficientoversightoverstaffmembers,
andhadmadeseveralbookkeepingmistakes.
DonaldJ.Trumphasalsosaidheseescertainappealtoselectingsomeonewithmilitaryexperience
asarunningmate,andisconsideringretiredLt.Gen.MichaelFlynn.InaninterviewwithABCNe
wsovertheweekend,Mr.Flynn,alifelongDemocrat,seemedtostumble,offeringhissupportfora
bortionrightsaviewoutoflockstepwithRepublicanbaseorthodoxy.
ButinaphoneinterviewwithTheNewYorkTimesonTuesday,Mr.TrumpcalledMr.Flynnapatriot
.
Mr.TrumpwillcontinuehispublicauditionprocessforpossiblerunningmatesonTuesdaynight,w
henheissettoappearatacampaignrallyinIndianawithMikePence,thestatesgovernor.
Findoutwhatyouneedtoknowaboutthe2016presidentialracetoday,andgetpoliticsnewsupdat
esviaFacebook,TwitterandtheFirstDraftnewsletter.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/us/politics/james-stavridis-hillary-clinton-vice-president.html?
smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share
SomeclosetoMrs.Clintonsayshewasalwayslikelytohavesomeonewithmilitaryexperienceonh
ervice-presidentialshortlist.
Senttime: 07/19/201609:31:39AM
FW:[JULYMONDAYEVEREAD][MB]ROPINGTHE[RU]DOPERS:ADoubleIssue---CNN&BBCStoriesBacktoBack..[ANT/F]
Subject:
Russians,RussiansEverywhere(inDC,thatis!!!)
Sent:Monday,July18,20164:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[JULYMONDAYEVEREAD][MB]ROPINGTHE[RU]DOPERS:ADoubleIssue---CNN&BBCStoriesBacktoBack..
[ANT/F]Russians,RussiansEverywhere(inDC,thatis!!!)
Date:Mon,Jul18,2016at7:33PM
Subject:[JULYMONDAYEVEREAD][MB]ROPINGTHE[RU]DOPERS:ADoubleIssue---CNN&BBCStoriesBackto
Back..[ANT/F]Russians,RussiansEverywhere(inDC,thatis!!!)
Subject:Russiandoping:'Anunprecedentedattackontheintegrityofsport&ontheOlympicGames'-CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/18/sport/russia-doping-sochi-2014-olympic-games-rio-2016/index.html
Russiandoping:'Anunprecedentedattackonthe
integrityofsport
&theOlympicGames'
OnGPS:Russianathletesunderinvestigation01:41
(CNN)TheInternationalOlympicCommitteeshouldconsiderbanningRussian
athletesfromtheRio2016Games,accordingtotheWorldAnti-DopingAgency.
Russiastandsaccusedof"ashockingandunprecedentedattackontheintegrityof
sportandontheOlympicGames"afteranindependentWADA-commissionedreport
saiditoperatedastate-sponsoreddopingprogramduringthe2014SochiWinter
Games.
ThereportbyCanadianlawprofessorRichardMcLarenconcludedRussia's"Ministry
ofSportdirected,controlledandoversawthemanipulationofathlete'sanalytical
resultsorsampleswapping,withtheactiveparticipationandassistanceoftheFSB,
CSP,andbothMoscowandSochiLaboratories."
TheFSBisRussia'sfederalsecurityservicewhiletheCSPisinvolvedinthetraining
ofRussianathletes.
Inastatement,WADAcalledon"theIOCandtheInternationalParalympic
Committeetoconsider,undertheirrespectivecharters,todeclineentries,forRio
2016,ofallathletessubmittedbytheRussianOlympicCommittee(ROC)andthe
RussianParalympicCommittee."
ItalsorecommendedRussianofficialsbedeniedaccesstointernational
competitions,includingRio2016.
IOCpresidentThomasBachsaidinastatementit"willnothesitatetotakethe
toughestsanctionsavailableagainstanyindividualororganizationimplicated,"with
thegoverningbody'sexecutivessettodecideTuesdaywhatfurthersanctionsRussia
willface.
Photos:Battlingdrugcheats
Coe,aformerOlympicgoldmedalist,hascomeunderfireforhispraisefor
predecessorDiack,whomhecalledthesport's"spiritualleader"whenhetookover
theroleinAugust2015.HetoldCNNhewould"doanythingtofixoursport."
TheWorldAnti-DopingAgency's(WADA)newreportisthelatesttwisttohitthe
Russiandopingscandal,withitrevealingobstructions--includingbribes,
intimidationandtamperedpackages--totestinginRussia.
WADAwillretestsamplesfromthe2008and2012Olympics,focusingonthose
intendingtocompeteinRio2016,torootoutanypotentialdrugcheats.
WADA'sreportonallegedwidespreaddruguseininternationalathleticsconcluded
thatseniorfiguresincludingIAAFpresidentSebastianCoe(pictured)"couldnothave
beenunawareoftheextentofdoping."
FormerWADApresidentDickPoundchairedapressconferenceheldinMunichon
January14,2016topresentthe89-pagereport.Itsaid"corruptionwasembedded"
and"cannotbeblamedonasmallnumberofmiscreants"withintheIAAF.
AreportbytheIAAF'sethicscommitteeclaimsapowerfultrioblackmailedRussian
distancerunnerLilyaShobukhovaintopayingthemofftokeepresultsofherpositive
drugtestssecret.
Russia'sformerathleticspresidentValentinBalakhnichev,itsex-chiefcoachforlong-
distanceathletesAlexeiMelnikovandformerIAAFconsultantPapaMassataDiack
haveallbeenbannedforlife.Thereportsays"farfromsupportingtheanti-doping
regime,theysubvertedit."TheIAAF'sformeranti-dopingdirectorGabrielDollhas
beengivenafive-yearban.
ThereportclaimsBalakhnichev,MelnikovandPapaMassataDiack"conspired
together...toconcealformorethanthreeyearsanti-dopingviolationsbyanathlete
atwhatappearedtobethehighestpinnacleofhersport.Allthreecompoundedthe
viceofwhattheydidbyconspiringtoextortwhatwereinsubstancebribesfrom
Shobukhovabyactsofblackmail."
PoundproducedanindependentreportinNovember2015whichdetailedsystemic
dopinginRussiaalongwithanestablishmentefforttocoveritup.Herecommended
Russiabebannedfromathleticcompetition,whichitdulywasbytheIAAF.
Thefindingsuncovereda"deeply-rootedcultureofcheatingatalllevels"within
Russianathletics.Askedifitamountedtostate-sponsoreddoping,Poundtold
reporters:"Inthesenseofconsentingtoit,there'snootherconclusion."
ThereportsuggestedtheLondon2012Olympics--inwhichRussiawon24gold
medalsandfinishedfourth--was"inasense,sabotagedbytheadmissionof
athleteswhoshouldhavenotbeencompeting."
Pound'sreportdetailed"corruptionandbriberypracticesatthehighestlevelsof
internationalathletics,"evidenceofwhichhasbeengiventointernationalcrime-
fightingorganizationInterpolforfurtherinvestigation.
Senegal'sLamineDiack,formerpresidentoftheIAAF,isbeinginvestigatedby
Frenchpoliceoverclaimsheacceptedbribestodefersanctionsagainstdrugcheats
fromRussia.Frenchprosecutorsclaimhetook"morethan1million($1M)"forhis
silence.Diackhasyettocomment.
WADAREPORT
"Theinvestigationhasestablishedthefindingssetoutinthereportbeyonda
reasonabledoubt,"McLarentoldapressconferenceinToronto,CanadaMonday.
"Theevidencewehaveuncoveredisallverifiableandcanbecross-corroboratedby
multiplesources.Iamunwaveringlyconfidentinourreport,"headded.
TheKremlinandRussianSportsMinistryareyettorespondtoCNN'srequestfor
comment.
TheinvestigationcameoffthebackofclaimsmadebyformerRussiananti-doping
laboratorydirectorGrigoryRodchenkovlastyeartotheNewYorkTimesthathewas
orderedtocoverupthedruguseofatleast15Sochi2014medalwinners.
TheRussiantrackandfieldteamhasalreadybeenbarredbyfromcompetinginthe
2016GamesbytheIAAF,althoughmorethan80athleteshavefiledpetitionsto
participateundertheOlympicflag.
Read:NewWADAreportgivesfreshallegationsofRussiandoping
WillRussiabebannedfromRio?
ReactiontotheMcLarenreportfromtheinternationalcommunityhasbeenswift,
withU.S.Anti-DopingAgencychiefTravisTygartsayingthestudy"hasconcluded,
beyondareasonabledoubt,amind-blowinglevelofcorruptionwithinbothRussian
sportandgovernmentthatgoesrighttothefieldofplay."
Tygart,whowasinstrumentalinexposingAmericancyclistLanceArmstrongasa
drugcheat,calledontheinternationalcommunitytorallytogether"toensurethis
unprecedentedlevelofcriminalityneveragainthreatensthesportswecherish."
TygartalsopushedforRussiatobebannedentirelyfromnextmonth'sOlympics.
"Anythinglessthanthatsendsthewrongmessages,"hetoldCNN.
Anti-dopingauthoritiesfrommorethan10countries--includingtheU.S.,Canada,
Germany,Spain,JapanandSwitzerland--arealsoexpectedtofilearequesttohave
theentireRussianOlympicteambannedfromRio,accordingtotheNewYorkTimes,
whichsaysithasreceivedemailsconfirmingthematter.
"Thefactthatthecommissiondidn'tgiveanyrecommendationstobanRussianteam
fromtheOlympicsinRioisapositivefact,"theheadoftheRussianOlympic
committeeAlexanderZhukovtoldthestaterunnewsorganizationTASS,addingthat
thereportneededtobestudiedingreaterdetailbeforehecouldcommentfurther.
Meanwhile,RussianMPIrinaRodnina--athree-timeOlympicgoldmedalistinfigure
skating--accusedthereportofabroaderplantodefaceRussiaaheadofthe
Games.
"It'sageneraltendency,theMcLarenreportissimilarwithotherrestrictionsagainst
Russia,intrade,policyandagainstcertainindividuals.There'sapowerfulexternal
pressureonRussia,"shetoldTASS."TheMcLarenreporthasbeenpresentedjust
fewdaysaheadoftheRioOlympics,andit'sbeendonethiswaydeliberately.Nowit
alldependsontheIOCdecision."
"Culturechange"necessary
ShortlyaftertheMcLaren'scomments,WADAchiefspokesmanBenNicholstweeted
thathisorganizationwouldrecommendthatRussiansbebannedfromall
internationalcompetition,includingRio,until"culturechange"isachieved.
Inaseriesoftweets,Nicholscondemnedwhathecalledthe"mostdeliberateand
disturbingabuseofpowereverseeninsport"whilesayingthatthescaleofthe
accusationsacross30sportsmeans"therecannolongerbeapresumptionof
innocence"whereRussianathletesareconcerned.
"Thisisextraordinary,wehavenevereverheardofanythingthisbad,"saidCNN
sportsanalystChristineBrennan."Thisgoesintotheheartof,'Canyoubelievethat
anyRussianathleteiscleangoingintoRio?'"
Inhisstatement,whistle-blowerRodchenkovallegedthatheassistedindoctoring
urinesamplesprovidedbyRussianathletesduringovernightshiftsattheSochi
Games.HealsoaccusedtheRussiansecretserviceofprovidingactiveassistance
withthecover-up,whichhesaystookplacebefore,duringandaftertheSochi
Olympics.
Rodchenkov'sstatementfollowedallegationsfromanotherformeremployeeofthe
RussiaAnti-Dopingagency,VitaliyStepanov,whoclaimedina2014German
documentarythattheRussianOlympicfederationsuppliedbannedsubstancesto
athletesinexchangefor5%oftheirearnings.StepanovismarriedtoformerRussian
middle-distancerunnerYuliyaStepanova,whobackeduptheclaims.
"InatrainingcampinPortugal,ourathletessimplylivedunderfalsenames,"said
Stepanova,whorelocatedtoCanadaandhassuccessfullyappealedtorununderthe
OlympicflaginRio."Theyhavetakenbannedsubstances,theyundertookacourse
ofdoping,andtoensurethatforeigncontrolofficersdidnotcomeandtestthem,
theyprovidedfalsenames."
Read:Russianpole-vaultinggreatcontestOlympicban
Read:Dopinginsport--countingthehumancost
DopingallegationshaverepeatedlybeendiscreditedbyRussianauthorities,
includingaspokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutinwhoreferredtoStepanovaas
"Judas,"accordingtoanIAAFreport.
AdocumentaryallegingthatRussiahasfallenvictimtoaninternationalsmear
campaignisscheduledtoairMondayonRussiantelevision.
The25-minutefilmtitled"TheDopingTrap"wasdistributedtojournalistsinadvance
ofitspremieronthestate-ownedsportchannelMatchTV.ItprofilesfourRussian
athletesalongwithdrugtestingsupervisorswhocountertheclaimsofStepanova
andRodchenkov,whileallegingtheyhavebeenvictimsofanelaborateset-up.
Subject:Russiastate-sponsoreddopingacrossmajorityofOlympicsports,claimsreport-BBCSport
http://www.bbc.com/sport/36823453
Russiastate-sponsoreddopingacrossmajorityof
Olympicsports,claimsreport
ThereportlooksintoclaimsdozensofRussianathletesweredopedinthebuild-uptoSochi2014
Russiaoperatedastate-sponsoreddopingprogrammeforfouryearsacrossthe"vast
majority"ofsummerandwinterOlympicsports,claimsanewreport.
Itwas"plannedandoperated"fromlate2011-includingthebuild-uptoLondon2012-and
continuedthroughtheSochi2014WinterOlympicsuntilAugust2015.
AninvestigationcommissionedbytheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)saysRussia'ssports
ministry"directed,controlledandoversaw"manipulationofurinesamplesprovidedbyitsathletes.
ItsaysRussianathletesbenefitedfromwhatthereportcalledthe"DisappearingPositive
Methodology",wherebypositivedopingsampleswouldgomissing.
InternationalOlympicCommittee(IOC)presidentThomasBachdescribedthecommission's
findingsasa"shockingandunprecedentedattackontheintegrityofsportandontheOlympic
Games"andpledgedtoenforcethe"toughestsanctionsavailable"againstthoseimplicated.
TheIOCwilldecideonTuesdayaboutany"provisionalmeasuresandsanctions"fortheRio
Olympics,whichstarton5August.
Amind-blowinglevelofcorruptionwithinbothRussiansportandgovernmentthat
goesrighttothefieldofplay
TravisTygartUSAnti-DopingAgency
Thecommission,ledbyCanadianlawprofessorandsportslawyerDrRichardMcLaren,lookedinto
allegationsmadebytheformerheadofRussia'snationalanti-dopinglaboratory.
GrigoryRodchenkovclaimedhedopeddozensofathletesbeforethe2014WinterOlympics,which
wereheldinSochi,Russia.
Rodchenkov-describedbytheKremlinasa"scandalous"formerofficial-alsoallegedhehadbeen
helpedbytheRussiansecretservice,theFSB.
Heclaimedtheyhadworkedouthowtoopenandresealsupposedlytamper-proofbottlesthatwere
usedforstoringurinesamplessothecontentscouldbereplacedwith"clean"urine.
McLarensentarandomamountofstoredsamplesfrom"protectedRussianathletes"atSochi2014
toananti-dopinglaboratoryinLondontoseeiftheyhadscratchmarksaroundthenecksofthe
bottlesthatwouldindicatetheyhadbeenmanipulated.
McLarensaid"100%ofthebottleshadbeenscratched"butaddedthatwould"nothavebeenvisible
totheuntrainedeye".
Hesaidhehad"unwaveringconfidence"inallofhisfindings.
dopingflowchart
Thedamningreportdoesnotmakeanyrecommendations,butwillfuelcallsforacompletebanon
Russiafromthe2016SummerOlympics.
WadahasrecommendedtheIOC"declineentries,forRio2016,ofallathletes"submittedbythe
RussianOlympicCommitteeandtheRussianParalympicCommittee.Russiangovernmentofficials
shouldalsobebannedfromthissummer'sGames,itsaid.
WadapresidentSirCraigReediecalledthe"scopeandscale"ofthefindingsa"realhorrorstory",
addinghewas"encouraged"the"correctdecision"wouldbetakebytheIOC.
"I'mnotsurethatthesystemisbroken,"ReedietoldBBCRadio5live."Butifyouaredetermined
tocheat,youcangetroundthesystem.Wecan'tsitbackonthesituationwehavetoworkwith
Russianofficialstochangethecultureinthatcountry."
HowdidRussiareact?
PresidentVladimirPutinmadetheSochiGamesashowcaseeventandspentmorethan$50bn
(37.7bn)stagingthem.
OnMonday,PutinsaidofficialsnamedintheMcLarenreportwouldbesuspended,pendinga
thoroughinvestigation.
ButastatementreleasedbytheKremlincriticisedthereportas"accusationsagainstRussian
athletes"basedonthethetestimonyof"apersonwithascandalousreputation".
Italsowarnedofa"dangerousrecurrenceofinterferenceofpoliticsinsport".
PutinhasaskedWadatoprovide"morecomplete,objective,evidence-basedinformation"to
Russianinvestigators.
Analysis
BBCsportseditorDanRoan:
"HowcouldallthishavegoneonundertheirnosesinaWada-accreditedlab?Whydidittakea
whistleblowertounearththecorruption?AndwillthisscandalsplittheOlympicmovementbeyond
repair?"
BBCRadio5livesportsnewscorrespondentRichardConway:
"It'salotworsethanpeoplewereexpecting.I'vereadthroughsomeofthereportand580positive
testswerecoveredupacross30differentsports.WeareintotheworldofJamesBond-style
espionage."
Theclaims
Russiadecidedtocheatfollowingthe"veryabysmal"medalcountof15attheVancouver
2010WinterOlympics
Itbeganmakingpositivedrugtestsdisappearfromitsanti-dopinglaboratoriesinlate2011
BeforetheWinterOlympicsinSochi,Russiacreatedastoragebankofclean,frozenurine
Russia'ssecurityservice,theFSB,workedinabuildingnexttotheSochilaboratory,swapping
positiveurinesamplesforcleannegativeonesthrougha"mousehole",addingtablesaltto
makethemweighthesame
AkeyFSBagenthadaccesstotheSochianti-dopinglaboratory,disguisedasasewageand
plumbingcontractor
But,inswappingurinesamples,theFSBagentsleftminisculetoolmarksonthebottles-later
foundbyMcLaren'sinvestigatorsusingamicroscope
TheMoscowlaboratorydestroyed8,000samplesithelddatedpriorto10September2014
Reaction
UnitedStatesAnti-DopingAgencychiefTravisTygart:
"TheMcLarenReporthasconcluded,beyondareasonabledoubt,amind-blowinglevelofcorruption
withinbothRussiansportandgovernmentthatgoesrighttothefieldofplayandmost
importantly,ourheartsgoouttoathletesfromallovertheworldwhowererobbedoftheirOlympic
dreams."
BritishOlympic400msilvermedallistRogerBlackonBBCRadio5live:
"It'saboutasbadasitcouldpossiblybe.I'mnotnaive,Iknowcertainpeoplewilltakedrugs,but
I'vealwayssaidthisisaminorityofpeople.Theproblemnow,whenyou'relookingataRussian
athlete,isyouwon'tbethinkingthat."
Britain'smarathonworldrecordholderPaulaRadcliffeonBBCRadio5live:
"Ithinkthatalevelofinstitutionaliseddoping,ofinstitutionalisedcheatingandfraudtosport,which
hasdonesuchdamagetoeverysportgloballyhastobepunishedstrongly.
"UnfortunatelytherewillbesomeinnocentathletesfromRussiathatwillsufferfromthatban,but
becauseofthescaleofit,andbecauseofthefactwedon'tknowwhoiscleaninRussia,becauseit'sso
badthereandwedon'tknowwhowecantrust,thenIthinkithastobethatstrong."
BritishEuropean10,000mchampionJoPaveyonBBCRadio5live:
"It'sjustawful.YoufeelsorryforanycleanathletesinRussiawhohaveputtheirheartsandsouls
intoqualifyingfortheOlympics.Atthesametime,somanyareinthissystemthatastrongmessage
needstobesentout."
LordCoe,presidentoftheIAAF,athletics'worldgoverningbody:
"TheinstitutionalisedandsystematicdopinginRussianathleticsisthereasontheIAAFsuspended,
andthenupheldthesuspensionof,RussiaAthleticsFederation'smembershipandconsequentlythe
exclusionoftheirathletesfrominternationalcompetition."
UKAnti-DopingchiefexecutiveNicoleSapstead:
"Nowisthetimefortheentiresportingcommunitytocometogethertofindawayforwardand
ensuretherightprocesses,legislationandsafeguardsareinplacetoprotecttherightsofallathletes
toclean,fairandhonestcompetition."
InternationalParalympicCommitteepresidentSirPhilipCraven:
"Wearetrulyshocked,appalledanddeeplysaddenedattheextentofthestate-sponsoreddoping
programmeimplementedinRussiaaheadofSochi2014.ThefindingsoftheMcLarenReportmark
averydarkdayforsport.
"Afteraninitialreviewofthereport,wenotethe35"disappearing"positivesamplesfrom
Paralympicsportbetween2012and2015andhavesentalettertoWadaandthereport'sauthor
RichardMcLarenseekingfurtherinformationonthesesamples."
UKsportsministerTraceyCrouch:
"ProfessorMcLaren'sreporthasexposedtheextremelengthssomewillgotoinordertocheat.This
shockingreportisawake-upcalltothesportingworld."
BillSweeney,BritishOlympicAssociationchief,andBenHawes,chairoftheBOAAthletes'
Commission(jointstatement):
"Thisreportrealisestheworstfearsofcleanathleteseverywhere."
GaryAnderson,coachoftheBritishbobsleighteam,toldBBCRadio4'sPM:
"AtSochi,wewerebeatentoamedalbytwoRussiansleds.Therevelationsaregreaterthanwe
anticipatedsothere'salotmorequestionstobeasked."
ThesportsthatbenefitedfromRussia'sstatesponsored'DisappearingPositiveMethodology&quot
ThesportsthatbenefitedfromRussia'sstatesponsored'DisappearingPositiveMethodology"
WhataboutLondon2012?
ThereportsaidRussia's"DisappearingPositiveMethodology"workedwhenanalysiscouldbedone
attheMoscowlaboratory.
Butataninternationalevent-suchasLondon2012,theAthleticsWorldChampionshipsof2013,or
theSwimmingWorldChampionshipsof2015-Russiahadtoadaptitsmethods.
Thereportfound:
DrRodchenkov's"cocktail"ofsteroidswasgiventoathletespriortoLondon2012.Theywere
drugshefeltwereleastlikelytobedetected
FortysixRussianathleteswithperformance-enhancingdrugsintheirsystemwerepre-tested
from17-22July2012
Theywerecategorisedasred-willtestpositiveandshouldbereplacedamber-tracesof
drugs,butshouldbeclearforLondongreen-clean
Allrecordsofpositivetestswerefalsifiedintonegativeresults
Athleteswerealsogivenmicro-dosesofblood-boostererythropoietin(EPO)untiltwoweeks
beforetheyleftforLondon
Elevenofthe46athleteswonmedalsatLondon2012-somehavesincebeenbannedandhad
theirmedalsstripped
InJune2016,theIOCorderedretestsofLondon2012samplesandeightathletestested
positive
Howhighupdidthisgo?
Itwas"inconceivable"thatRussia'ssportsminister,VitalyMutko,wasnotawareofthedoping
cover-upscheme,accordingtothereport.
Mutkohasbeeninpositionsince2008.Heisamemberoftheexecutivecommitteeoffootball's
worldgoverningbody,Fifa,andchairstheorganisingcommitteeofthe2018WorldCup,tobeheld
inRussia.
ThereportclaimedMutkopersonallyintervenedtocoverupadopingcaseof"atleast"one
overseasfootballplayerintheRussianleagueandthat11positivetestsbyRussiafootballers
disappeared.
However,itwasMutko'sdeputy,YuriNagornykh,whowasadvisedof"everypositiveanalytical
finding"fromtheMoscowlaboratoryfrom2011onwards-in"totalviolation"ofWadarules-and
decidedwhotoprotect.
DanRoaninsideMoscowdrug-testinglab
DanRoanreportsfromthediscreditedMoscowanti-dopinglaboratory
Whywasthereportcommissioned?
ThecommissionwassetuptolookintoRodchenkov'sclaimsthathedopeddozensofathletes,
includingatleast15medallists,inthebuild-uptoSochi.
HeclaimsthiswastheresultofanelaborateandorchestratedplotwiththeRussiangovernment,
whichexploiteditshoststatustosubvertthedrug-testingprogramme.Thecountry'sgovernment
hasrepeatedlydeniedtheclaims.
Rodchenkov,nowinhidingintheUS,alsoallegeshedopedathletesbeforethe2012Olympicsin
London,the2013WorldAthleticsChampionshipsinMoscowandthe2015WorldSwimming
ChampionshipsinKazan.
AresomeRussiansbannedalready?
Yes.Thecountry'strackandfieldathletesarebarredfromcompetinginRioafterthebodythat
governsworldathletics,theInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations,votedinJuneto
maintainaglobalcompetitionbanontheAll-RussiaAthleticFederation(Araf).
ArafhopestooverturnthesuspensionandwillfindoutbyThursdayifitsappealtotheCourtof
ArbitrationforSporthasbeensuccessful.
Whateverhappens,asmallnumberofRussianathleteswhocanprovetheyarecleanwillbeallowed
tocompeteattheRioGamesundertheflagoftheIOC.
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Subject:Russian'Gun-For-Hire'inDC/+[ED:TarasAseemsworriedaboutRUinfluenceinDCfromthelooksofit,
hemayberight/SEEBELOW]
To:
Russian'Gun-For-Hire'LurksInShadowsOfWashington'sLobbyingWorld
http://www.rferl.org/content/rinat-akmetshin-russia-gun-for-hire-washington-lobbying-magnitsky-
browder/27863265.html
[...InternationalEurasianInstituteforEconomicandPoliticalResearchtohelpexpanddemocracyandtheruleof
lawinEurasia.
AzeriDemocracyInitiativeFoundation,HumanRightsAccountabilityGlobalInitiativeFoundation,...]
AnneApplebaum
Withsomuchelseontheirplate,amazingthatTrumpteamprioritizesitspro-RussianpolicyinUkraine
JuliaDavis
Trumphaspaidverylittleattentiontothesubstanceoftheplatform,exceptforarmingUkraine.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/donald-trump-working-for-russia.htmlpic.twitter.com/VF5Mi6dKP7
TopTrumpadviserdefendspaymentforRussianspeakingengagement
YahooNewsVideoJuly18,2016
Lt.Gen.MichaelFlynn,formerdirectoroftheDefenseIntelligenceAgencyandatopDonaldTrumpadviser,
defendspaymentforaspeakingengagementinRussiatoYahooNews'ChiefInvestigativeCorrespondentMichael
Isikoff.
http://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-supporter-defends-payment-russian-175611942.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
*****************************
*****************************
What???
ECFR
Read@ECFR@RichardGowan1'sarticle"Withfriendslike#Turkey,theUSneedsRussiain#Syria"
in@WPReview
WithFriendsLikeTurkey,theU.S.NeedsRussiainSyria
RichardGowanMonday,July18,2016
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/19382/with-friends-like-turkey-the-u-s-needs-russia-in-syria?
utm_content=bufferdcd31&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
ADD:ClintonEmailScandal:HasPutinPlayedAllHis
Cards?
ByIrinaSlav-Jul07,2016,10:53AMCDThttp://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Clinton-Email-
Scandal-Has-Putin-Played-All-His-Cards.html
Allanimalsareequalbutsomearemoreequalthanothers.ThisbrutalquotefromGeorgeOrwellsAnimalFarmcomestomind
instinctivelyinlightofthelatestdevelopmentsaroundtheinvestigationintoformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonsuseof
privateemailserversduringherterminoffice.
ATuesdaystatementbyFBIsdirectorJamesComeydroppedabombshell:herecommendednochargesagainstClintonand
referredthematterovertotheDepartmentofJustice.Many,bothcriticsandsupportersofHillaryClinton,expectedthis.The
anticipationfactor,however,doesnotchangethefactthatinhisstatement,Comeymadearecommendationthatgoesagainstthe
law.
Hereswhathesaid.AfterdetailingtheactionsthattheFBIundertookinitsinvestigationanddescribingtheamountandtypeof
emailcommunicationtheyanalyzedidentifyingeightseparatetopsecretdocumentsandover100containingclassified
information,Comeysaid,AlthoughwedidnotfindclearevidencethatSecretaryClintonorhercolleaguesintendedtoviolate
lawsgoverningthehandlingofclassifiedinformation,thereisevidencethattheywereextremelycarelessintheirhandlingofvery
sensitive,highlyclassifiedinformation."
Now,extremecarelessnessispunishablebylaw,evenifitwasnotcommittedintentionally,whichseemstobethefocusof
ComeysrecommendationfornochargestobepressedagainsttheformerSecretaryofState.ZeroHedge,however,quotes
theU.S.PenalCode,whichspecificallystatesthatintentisnotanecessaryprerequisiteforprosecutionincaseofmishandlingof
sensitiveinformation.
Whatsmorealarming,however,isComeysadmissionthat,duetoacombinationoffactors,theFBIassessedtherehadbeena
possibilityforhostileactorstogainaccesstoHillaryClintonspersonalemailaccount.EnterDefenseandForeignAffairsand
theirreportonwarningsthatRussiahasinterceptedsensitiveinformationfromClintonsemailcommunicationandisreadyto
releasethemasproofofClintonsviolationofthelaw.Related:DiminishingOutagesCouldExacerbateOilsFall
DefenseandForeignAffairsquotedsourcesfromtheintelligencecommunitythatsaidthedecisiononwhethertoreleasethe
informationwillbemadebyPresidentPutinatatimeheconsidersrightandthatmeanwhile,bothheandthosearoundhimare
gettingannoyedwiththeslowpaceatwhichtheinvestigationintoClintonsemailcommunicationpracticesismoving.
HillaryClintonhasmadenosecretofherattitudetowardsRussia,soMoscowclearlyhasreasonstoworryaboutfurthertensions
shouldClintonbecomePresident.Inlightofthis,itsnosurprisethatDFAssourceshavesuggestedthatthesensitiveinformation
wouldbereleasedatsuchamomentastomakeamaximumimpactonthepresidentialrace.
ThequestionofwhetherornottheformerSecretaryofStateviolatedsensitive-information-handlinglegislationseemstobe
settled.Sincesheiswhosheisamoreequalanimalanindictmentremainsunlikely.Butitsonethingtotalkabout110emails
containingconfidentialinformationoreightemailscontainingtopsecretinfo.
Thisisquiteabstract.IfRussia,however,decidestowavesomespecificconfidentialdocumentsinWashingtonsface,thingswill
stopbeingsoabstract.
Ofcourse,therearethosewhothinkRussiaisbluffing.Yet,DirectorComeymadeitprettyclearinhisstatementthathackinginto
aprivateemailserverismoreorlessapieceofcakeforsomeintelligenceservices.IfitwassoeasytointerceptClintons
communication,doesanyonedoubtthatMoscowwouldhesitatetodoit?StaytunedformoreClintonleaksasNovember
approaches.
Senttime: 07/12/201609:07:42AM
Subject: FW:"CaptiveRussian[OFFICER]callsonDonbascomrades-in-armstogohome,"unian.info,7/12
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"CaptiveRussian[OFFICER]callsonDonbascomrades-in-armstogohome,"unian.info,7/12
AcaptiveRussiansoldierwhowasdetainednearthevillageofTROYITSKEinDonetskregiononJuly
11,2016,hascalleduponhisfellowsoldiersfightingintheDonbaswaragainstUkrainetoreturns
homeAtthemomentImacommanderof[Russianmilitary]troopNo.1.Imalieutenant.Iearlier
wantedtoleavehere,wroteanumberof[resignation]requests,buttheydidnotletmego,hetold
theSBUasseeninthevideo[SeeVIDEO].TheRussiansoldierclaimsheinfiltratedintoUkraine
throughanuncontrolledsectionoftheUkrainianRussianborderinthetownofKrasnyLuch,Luhansk
region.HesaidhewasorderedtocoverpositionsheldbymilitantsoftheselfproclaimedDNRnear
thetownofSnizhneUkrainiansoldierscapturedthreeRussianfightersduringaskirmishandoneof
theRussiansreportedlydiedofhiswounds.Thedeadsoldier,NatanTsalikov,wasanativeofthe
RussiancityofOmsk.
And:NewLEVADApoll:NumberofRussians[69%]viewingUSasthreathits10yearlowpoll,
themsocowtimes.com,7/12
And:ThetrialinthecaseofthemurderofNEMTSOVwillbeginon25July,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1705117.html?print=1
And:JoshROGIN,KERRYtoutstheRussianlineonSyrianrebelgroups,washingtonpost.com,7/12
And:KOMSOMOLSKAYAPRAVDA[aPutinmouthpiece]:AnadvisorofTRUMP[CarterPAGE]
conductedSECRETNEGOTIANSwhileinMoscow,http://www.kp.ru/daily/26553.7/3569559/
ThepaperbelievesthattheformerGazpromemployeePageislikelytobecomeDonaldTrumps
SECRETARYofSTATE.
And:InKontaktwiththecops.WhenRUSSIANPOLICEgoafterInternetuserswhydotheytarget
peopleonVKontakte[RussianFacebook]almostexclusively?meduza.io,7/7[English]
And:ThisiswhatlosingyournewsroomlookslikeinRussia.ThereportersatRBCmeettheirnew
bosses(fulltranscript),meduza.io,7/12[English]
And:RussiansuspectinISTANBULattack:ashystudent[RahimBULGAROVfromKarachaevo
Cherkessia]whofoundreligion.Reuters.com,7/12
And:NikitaBELYKHhiscontinuinghishungerstrikeinprison:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73809.html?print=1

Senttime: 07/13/201603:14:45AM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>nathanielreynolds<naterey80@gmail.com>DonaldJensen
BCc:
<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: SergeyMedvedevonPutinasTrump'sPrecursor(aspecterishauntingEurope......thelessonsofhistory)
July8,2016
.Brexit
,.Brexit,
,24
,,1
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,.2015
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.
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,,75.
Senttime: 07/11/201609:07:37AM
Subject: FW:PUTINreappearsinpublic:"PutinvisitsVALAAMMonastery,meetsPatriarch,"themsocowtimes.com,7/11
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:PUTINreappearsinpublic:"PutinvisitsVALAAMMonastery,meetsPatriarch,"themsocowtimes.com,7/11
Theweekbeforehistriptothemonastery,RussianmediahadreportedthatPutincancelledallhis
scheduledappointmentsforanumberofdays.Thereasonsbehindthecancellationsarestill
unknown.
And:IgorGirkin/STRELKOVlaunchesblisteringattackonPutinandhisallegedcringingbeforethe
West.WhoisprotectingthisretiredFSBcolonel?See:http://novorossia.pro/strelkov/2143igor
strelkovsituaciyaiperspektivy.html
And:ThreeRussianfighters[i.e.,regularsoldiersoftheRussianmilitary]CAPTUREDamidskirmish
nearTROYITSKEinDonbas(oneofthemhasdiedfromhiswounds),unian.info,7/11PHOTOof
Russianpassportofoneofthecaptured
And:Grani.rupostsdetailsonthecapturedRussians.TwoofthecapturedRussianswereofficers
onethecommanderofacompany,theothercommanderofaplatoon.
http://graniru.org/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.252997.html
And:ATOHQ:Russianproxies[andRussianregulararmyunits]attackUkraine72times[!]inlast
day,unian.info,7/11
And:PutintellsMERKELandHOLLANDEofUkrainianprovocation,themoscowtimes.com,7/10
And:CanadianPM[Trudeau,inKYIV]:RussiawasntpositivepartnerinMINSKceasefiredeal,
rferl.org,7/11
And:ThedirectoroftheLEVADACenter[levGudkov]hasaccusedANTIMAIDANofslander,
novayagazeta.ru,7/11
AntimaidanhasappealedtotheRussianMinistryofJusticetorecognizetheLevadaCenterasa
foreignagent.
And:RussianOlympicathletes[longjumperDariaKLISHINA]Facebookpostattackedby[Russian
statebacked]TROLLS,themsocowtimes.com,7/11
RussiantrollsattackedKlishinaonMonday,callingherTREASONOUSandunpatriotic.Klishinahad
writtenonthesocialmediasitetothanktheIAAFforallowinghertoparticipateinthe2016Olympic
GamesinRiodejaneiro.SheisoneoftwoRussiantrackandfieldathletestobedeemedeligibleso
far.
And:AcurveballinTRUMPsVeepsearch:Hesseriouslyconsideringaretiredgeneral[Michael
FLYNN,asemiPutinite],Washingtonpost.com,7/10
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 07/10/201608:33:59AM
Subject: FW:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
Justbetweenus.InsightfulcommentsfromEdbelowthePostarticle.
From:EdwardS.Verona[mailto:everona@maglobal.com]
Sent:Friday,July08,20163:06PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:FW:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
David,
Iimaginethatyouhaveseenthearticlebelow,butincaseyouhavent
FurtherbelowissomethingthatIwroteafteranearlierBloombergarticlefirstbroughtCarterPagesnametolight.Ithought
youmightbeinterested.
Regards,Ed
From:CatalinaPiccato
Sent:Friday,July08,20162:45PM
To:RichardBurtEdwardS.VeronaPhilippeMaze-SencierCarolineWoodwardReneeSlawsky
Subject:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
ByAndrewRothJuly7
WashingtonPost
MOSCOWAnAmericanforeign-policyadvisertoDonaldTrumpchidedtheUnitedStatesonThursdayforanoften-
hypocriticalfocusondemocratization,inequality,corruptionandregimechangeinitsdealingswithRussia,ChinaandCentral
Asia.
CarterPage,anenergyexecutivetappedbythepresumptiveRepublicannomineescampaignforhisbusinessexperienceinthe
formerSovietUnion,toldstudentsandjournalistsgatheredinaMoscowlecturehallthatWashingtonhadmissedopportunitiesto
workwithleaderssuchasRussiasVladimirPutinandChinasXiJinpingbecauseithadignoredprinciplesofrespect,equality
andmutualbenefit.
Pagesremarksputhim,likeTrump,atsharpoddswiththeObamaadministrationandtraditionalRepublicanpolicycircles,which
haveviewedRussiainmoreadversarialtermsoverthewarinSyria,theconflictinUkraineandotherissues.Thebilateral
relationshiphassouredtoColdWar-eralevelsinrecentyears.
PagerefusedtocommentspecificallyontheU.S.presidentialelection,hisrelationshipwithTrumporU.S.sanctionsagainst
Russia,sayinghewasinRussiaasaprivatecitizen.HegavealecturetitledTheEvolutionoftheWorldEconomy:Trendsand
Potential,inwhichhenotedthatRussiaandChinahadachievedsuccessinCentralAsia,unliketheUnitedStates,bypursuinga
respectfulforeignpolicybasedonmutualinterest.
HegenerallyavoidedquestionsonU.S.foreignpolicy,butwhenoneattendeeaskedhimwhetherhereallybelievedtheUnited
Stateswasaliberal,democraticsociety,Pagetoldhimtoreadbetweenthelines.
IfImunderstandingthedirectionyourecomingfrom,Itendtoagreewithyouthatitsnotalwaysasliberalasitmayseem,he
said.Imwithyou.
InameetingwithTheWashingtonPosteditorialboardinMarch,TrumpnamedPage,aformerMerrillLynchexecutiveinMoscow
wholateradvisedtheRussianstateenergygiantGazpromonmajoroilandgasdeals,asoneofhisforeign-policyadvisers.Page
refusedtosaywhetherhisMoscowtripincludedameetingwithRussianofficials.Heisscheduledtodeliveragraduationaddress
FridayattheNewEconomicSchool,aspeechthatsomeofficialsareexpectedtoattend.
TrumphasnotoutlinedaspecificpolicyconcerningRussiaandtheformerSovietUnion,butheisbroadlynoninterventionist,
questioningtheneedfortheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandcallingforEuropetoplayalargerroleinensuringitssecurity.
PagesappointmentfollowedcriticismthatTrumpwasthinonforeign-policyexperience.Trump,inaMarchappearanceon
MSNBCsMorningJoe,wasaskedwhohistopforeign-policyconsultantwas.Heresponded:Imspeakingwithmyself,
numberone,becauseIhaveaverygoodbrainandIvesaidalotofthings....Myprimaryconsultantismyself.
PageisanoutsidertoRepublicanpolicymakingcircles.ButhehasregularlycriticizedU.S.interventionandonThursdayquoted
PutininRussianassayingthathiscountrydoesnotinterveneintheinternalpoliticsofothernations.
InonearticleforGlobalPolicyJournal,hewrote,FromU.S.policiestowardRussiatoIrantoChina,sanctimoniousexpressions
ofmoralsuperioritystandattherootofmanyproblemsseenworldwidetoday.
PagewrotethatthewarineasternUkrainewasprecipitatedbyU.S.meddlingintheMaidanrevolution,areferencetothe2014
demonstrationsthatledtotheousterofPresidentViktorYanukovych.U.S.officialshaveaccusedRussiaoforchestratingthe
subsequentannexationofCrimeaandofbackingpro-MoscowseparatistsineasternUkraine.
PageisnotTrumpsonlyadviserwithtiestoformerSoviet-blocpolitics.PaulManafort,hiscampaignmanager,servedasa
consultantforYanukovychbeforetheRussian-backedUkrainianleaderwasoverthrown.
DearColleagues,
IspenteightyearslivingandworkinginMoscow,bothasaForeignServiceOfficercoveringtheenergysectorand,later,
asanoilandgasindustryexecutive.IworkedanothertwoyearsinKazakhstanheadingthelocalofficeofamajorU.S.
oilandgascompany.Icannotbeaccusedofbeingoneofthepeoplefromafar,sittinginthecomfortoftheirthink
tanksinWashington.Withthatsaid,Itakethelibertyofmakingafewbynomeansexhaustiveobservationson
CarterPage'sbackgroundandviews.
WithPage'sappointmentasanadvisortotheTrumpcampaign,UkrainiansteelmagnateVictorPinchuk(see
highlightsbelow)nowhasalinktobothTrumpandHillaryClinton.Between2009and2013,whileClintonwas
SecretaryofState,Pinchukdonated$8.6milliontotheClintonFoundation.In2008Pinchukmadea$29million
commitmenttotheClintonGlobalInitiative,makinghimthesinglelargestbenefactorofthatorganization.
WhateverotherimplicationstheremightbetotheassociationwithPinchuk,attheveryleastthiswouldseemto
impedeTrumpfromraisingClinton'spotentiallydamagingrelationshipwithaforeignoligarchasanissueduring
thegeneralelectioncampaign.
Accordingtothearticle,PagewasassignedtoMoscowbyMerrillLynchin2004andbeganbuildingrelationships
withGazpromexecutives.AtthattimeGazpromshareswereringfencedtopreventforeignersfromowningthose
thatwerepubliclytradedinMoscow.ForeignerswerelimitedtopurchasinghigherpricedADRs.Russianbuyers,
especiallygovernmentinsiders,acquiredsubstantialblocksofGazpromsharesinanticipation(and
foreknowledge)oftheliftingoftheringfence.Thesharepricerosemeteoricallyoncetheringfencewas
eliminatedinDecember2005.Itwasundoubtedlyalucrativeopportunityforanybodyintheequitytrading
business.
Pagesaysthathe"advised"Gazpromonsomeofitslargestdeals,specificallythepurchaseof"astakeinthe
Sakhalinoilandgasfield".ThisreferstooneofthemostcolorfulepisodesofcorporateraidingofthePutinera.
ThefieldinquestionanditsassociatedLNGplantwasSakhalin2,thenwhollyownedbyaninternational
consortium(SakhalinEnergy)ledbyShell.Previously,GazpromhadshownlittleinterestintheRussianFarEast,
focusinginsteadonitsEuropeanmarketsandupgradingitsinfrastructureinRussia'smorewesterlyregions.
However,whentheSakhalinprojectwasapproachingcompletion,GazpromorsomebodyintheKremlin
decidedthatitwasunseemlyforaforeigncompanytoexportthefirstoilandLNGfromRussiatoAsiaPacific
markets.Onthepretextofhavingcommittedegregiousecologicaldamage,Shellanditsconsortiumpartners
wereeffectivelyforcedtosellhalfoftheprojectandyieldlegalcontroltoGazprom.TherolethatPagemight
haveplayedinthisisunclear(andwaslikelyminor,ifany),buthismentionofitisinteresting.Indeed,thetactics
usedbyGazprominexpropriatingthepropertyrightsoftheconsortiumarelikeTrump'suseofeminentdomain
onlyonsteroids.
Finally,PagesaysthatheadvisedtheTurkmenistangovernmentin2008onattractingforeignequityinvestment.
ItisworthpointingoutthatthefollowingyearGazpromthecompanyPagewaspreviouslyadvisingsabotaged
themaingaspipelinebetweenTurkmenistanandRussiabyshuttingoffthevalveswithouttellingthe
Turkmenistanis.Theresultingpressurebuildupcausedaruptureandexplosionofthelineandamajor
compressorstation.AtthetimeGazpromwastryingtoreduceitspurchasesofTurkmenistanigasand,tomany
observers,thetechnicaldisruptionofthepipelineseemedintendedtoavoidcostly"takeorpay"provisionsinthe
contract.SuchtacticsarebynomeansunusualforGazprom.
Regards,Ed
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/09/201603:58:30AM
Subject: Re:TransatlanticMust-ReadsJuly8,2016
OKay
Fine.Illbehere.Callwhenconvenient.
OnJul9,2016,at6:31AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:
Iamanti-Trumpandanti-anti-Trump,soofteninaabdmood.
Nisstillsleeping,soafter10?
NoapologiesnecessaryIwassimplyconfused.youhavetimeforachattoday?
OnJul9,2016,at6:16AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:
MeantanotherRobert,agradassistant.Apologies.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJul9,2016,at5:37AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Wasisupposedtobeonthisnote?Ifso,why?
OnJul8,2016,at8:15PM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
wrote:
WhyinheckdidyoupicktheThrusharticle--Leftwing,sarcastingtone,
insteadofsomeseriousanalysis?
From:CenterforTransatlanticRelations<transatlantic@jhu.edu>
Date:Fri,Jul8,2016at8:05PM
Subject:TransatlanticMust-ReadsJuly8,2016
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
TransatlanticMust-Reads
FridayJuly8th,2016
US,Afghanistan,China,UK,Iraq,NATO,EU,Russia,Germany,Spain,Balkans
US5takeawaysfromClintonsemailreprieve,GlennThrush,PoliticoEurope
US/AfghanistanTheObamaStrategyinAfghanistan:FindingaWaytoWin,AnthonyH.Cordesman,
CSIS
US/ChinaChinaWillNeverRespecttheU.S.OvertheSouthChinaSea.HeresWhy,HannahBeech,
Time
UK/Iraq-Chilcotreport:keypointsfromtheIraqinquiry,TheGuardian
UK/Iraq5takeawaysfromChilcotReportonTonyBlairsIraqwar,TomMcTague,PoliticoEurope
NATOStumblingBlockstoNATOsStrategicAdaptationInitiative,AlexandradeHoopSchefferand
MartinMichelot,GMF
NATOSupportforNATOiswidespreadamongmembernations,DanielleCuddington,PewResearch
EUOnlyMoreEuropeCanBeatEuropesNationalists,GuyVerhofstadt,ProjectSyndicate
EU/RussiaTheEffectsofSanctionsandCounter-SanctionsonEU-RussianTradeFlows,DanielGros
andFedericaMustilli,CEPS
RussiaKarachaevo-CherkessiasGovernorFacesToughChallengeinUpcomingElectionPeriod,
ValeryDzutsati,JamestownFoundation
GermanyWhyEuropeslargesteconomyisresistingthenewindustrialrevolution,Matthew
Karnitschnig,PoliticoEurope
Germany/RussiaGermanyIsRekindlingItsBromanceWithRussia,HansKundnani,ForeignPolicy
SpainInsurgentsvsstabilisers:Spanishpoliticspost-Brexit,FranciscodeBorjaLasheras,ECFR
Balkans-BackingtheBalkans-PrioritizingEUEnlargementPost-Brexit,EdwardP.Joseph,Sasha
Toperich,andOgnenVangelov,ForeignAffairs
FollowalongonTwitterwith#CTRmustread.ClickheretosubscribetotheTransatlanticMust-Reads.
Signupforoureventsmailinglisthere.
TheCenterforTransatlanticRelationsatJohnsHopkinsUniversitySAIS.
Senttime: 07/09/201607:29:17AM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Cc: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes5July2016
Yes,SergeyKorolevworkedinSTP.UntilyesterdayhewasUSBFSBhead.HesnowatSEB.
OnJul7,2016,at10:44AM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:
Thanks,Bob,forthesehelpfulamendments.
Ofcourse,weshouldkeepinmindthattheUSBFSBmaybynow(tenyearslater)containsome
formerSPBofficerswhostillhavevividmemoriesofMikhalchenko'sgreed.
OnThu,Jul7,2016at12:59AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
ItwasntFSBofficersinStPitwasofficersfromtheUSBFSB(centralapparatus)whowentafterMikhalchenko.
ItsnotcleartomethatBortnikovwashiskryshaitisclearMurovwas.
IllhavesomemoreonMikhalchenkoandFSBvsFSOintodaysnotes.

From:PeterReddaway[mailto:pbreddaway@gmail.com]
To:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>;WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject:Re:InternetNotes5July2016

T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckby
Mikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedandaggressivenessin
acquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubtpassingagood
percentageofthevaluetoBortnikov).Thismusthaveprovoked
envyandangerinalotofFSBofficersinSPB.

P

OnWed,Jul6,2016at2:03AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthat
wentafterMikhalchenko.

OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreats
toBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobreminded
meabouttheotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),
namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsatleast-
Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobably
onemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.
Best,
Peter
OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:
InternetNotes5July2016
FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupanda
transitionalperiod:Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1
Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3
SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3
SergeyKanevonBelykh.3
PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4
PutingivesRolduginanaward..4
Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4
TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5
MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6
AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6
KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7
FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupanda
transitionalperiod:Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)
http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html
AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceon
Tuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndrey
Piontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbythe
FSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogat
theMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.Venediktovhimselfisonatripto
GenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsfor
actionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestfora
reviewtotheProsecutorsofficeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABomb
AbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilar
requesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,Magomed
Daudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparated
fromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19Februaryafterthe
Prosecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhis
writing.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.Itcalledfortheseparationof
ChechnyafromRussia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthe
article.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpaying
offGrozny,financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,while
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimed
thatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernor
NikitaBelykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiy
attributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.Theinternal
Kremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregime
andistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsin
preparationforatransitionalperiod.
AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html
Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,Piontkovskiy
toldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)that
PutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicy
intheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime
(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).The
regimeisenteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthe
defeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)andPutinmaythrowaboneto
thesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowasimplicatedinthe
NemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattackson
Kadyrovandhavesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthrougha
seriesofpalacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrova
sluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon
(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalace
coup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthe
streetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersare
preparingtostepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7June
notes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovs
andZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiys
commentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoup
doesntatfirstcomeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.
OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadershipwas
Medvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.I
recallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioning
Medvedevasatransitionalfigure.
IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechange
scenario,andlistedthosehe(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableof
transitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentionedby
Khodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7
PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbe
dissolvedSignificantsocialforceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteen
peopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmed
supporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,the
roundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganew
oneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthearmedformationsThe
roundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbeenoughto
turnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowill
decidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartin
theroundtableatthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheir
opinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewill
actasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfrom
Medvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,ascould
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,
itsanotherformofauthority
Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assuming
Putinmakesanexit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,
Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,
Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups
PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov
http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321
AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky
.,,,,
.-,,
.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.
Seethe30Junenotes,whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov
Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?
post_add#post_add
.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademy
graduatesracingtoMoscowinthreedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausing
allkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwas
forcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.Soloveywassayingthatthe
Kremlinwasalreadynothappywith
Bortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevonthe
incident(AcademyGraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbefore
BeginningtheirService):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereis
videoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh
Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternal
Security(FSBUSB)afterhisbossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertohead
FSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtake
overatFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionof
FeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistov
hadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.Feoktistovalsoplayedaroleinthe
GUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasfor
alongtimeaimedtotakeoverasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisan
additionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutin
previously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,
speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwas
amongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateBut
BelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykh
since2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,
PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSB
hasbeenhostiletoBelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrative
sourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthatNikita
BelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,who
resignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutors
office)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidto
beslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvinced
thattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehad
alreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasa
partofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhs
detentiononlyafterthefact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabout
theFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargeting
Belykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html
PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.Putinalso
abolishedthepostofMVDInternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwill
fromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies
PutingivesRolduginanaward
http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-
bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu
PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwas
givenbecauseofRolduginscontributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactions
thathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples
Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevada
pollsEverythirdfamilywithchildrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfof
themareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefalling
andunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevada
pollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularin
theperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnot
droppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurt
PutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butis
heldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthe
governmentsapprovalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in
2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirectionnumberstrackwithMedvedevs
approvalratingsovertime
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes
(Comment:Putinstrustratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):
[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)
Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalrating
isat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%in
May),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)
Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrust
Putinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev
(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-
empty-in-2017/574344.html
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNational
WelfareFund,theReutersnewsagencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudget
materials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowing
fourorfivetimeswithinthreeyears.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationofthe
StateDumaandpresidentialelections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat
15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomestic
productusingfundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles
($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbe
emptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)
fromtheNationalWelfareFundin2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,
Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin
2008whentheStabilizationFundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNational
WelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstate
developmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.
MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest
Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.
http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-
kamenshchik/
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderby
thefirstdeputyprosecutor-generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthe
releaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhouse
arrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoon
astheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessary
documents.
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminal
chargesagainsttopmanagersoftheairportbedroppedHowever,the
InvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedtheremedial
actionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation
AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-
return-to-crimea-since-russia-sanctions/574325.html
TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.
governmenttooperateinCrimea,theKommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailableto
residentsoftheannexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctions
placedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthat
educationshouldbeavailabletopeoplearoundtheworld.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[on
accessingCoursera]inCrimea,saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolof
Economics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.Officeof
ForeignAssetsControlgavethewebsiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationis
availabletoeveryone,wherevertheylive,saidthespokesperson.
KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence
http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenis
indeedtheirman.Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussian
securityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshare
intelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,they
willgetit.
Withthis,Klintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthat
SnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.Thathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteronceheset
footinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlya
decade.Moreimportantly,heisthedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecurity
committee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccess
tomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.
HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces
(VDV).KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedona
carefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence
(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLenin
Military-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).
Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpress
brieflyin2012withhisshort-livedideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inorderto
destroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.Givenhissenate
committeepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichis
considerednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.
HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccident
oraslipofthetongue.Forwhateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthe
collaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconian
newlawsondomesticsurveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWestern
democraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishosts
finallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhad
notedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhas
outlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothe
mythsthatheandhismouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystems
administrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Therearenoindicationshereally
understandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhad
littlelighttoshedonthemillion-plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhas
beenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligence
alliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.Buthewasneveramole
forMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflect
attentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAfor
years,undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowden
facesanunhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspects
ofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwith
theKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.Putinandhisspecialservices
considerSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.
(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

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