Trump 8

From: teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.
com>
Senttime: 04/07/201602:05:49PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:Trump'sRussiaadviser
Thisyouknowalready...
SentfrommySamsungdevice
--------Originalmessage--------
From:MarkSmith<drmas12459@startmail.com>
Date:07/04/201619:40(GMT+00:00)
To:teagueeliza@aol.com
Subject:Trump'sRussiaadviser
IfTrumpbecomesPresidentthenhisRussiapolicycouldbecomeveryinteresting
http://russialist.org/trumps-new-russia-adviser-has-deep-ties-to-kremlins-gazprom/
Mark
Virus-free.www.avast.com
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 04/09/201606:50:51AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto@me.com>
Subject: Re:Essay(latestfromGraham)
Hmm...IwonderwhetherTomeverpushesbackonsomeofthethinkingheencounters.Ialsowonderwhetherheistryingquietly
tolineupwithTrumpsinceTrump'snascentviewsonRussialineupmostcloselywithTom's.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnApr8,2016,at9:25PM,RobertOtto<robertotto@me.com>wrote:
<MoscowWinterSpring2016.pdf>
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 04/04/201601:18:02PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:UpdateKirkBENNETT[formerUSForeignServiceofficer],"Condemnedtofrustration:WhatRussiawants,theWestsimplycan'tdeliver,"
Subject:
TheAmericanInteresthttp://www.the-american-interest-com/2016/04/01/condemned-to-frustration/
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,April04,20161:18PM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:UpdateKirkBENNETT[formerUSForeignServiceofficer],"Condemnedtofrustration:WhatRussiawants,theWestsimply
can'tdeliver,"TheAmericanInteresthttp://www.the-american-interest-com/2016/04/01/condemned-to-frustration/
And:RobertZubrin,TRUMP:theKremlinscandidate,
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/433613/print
AfterMaidanCarterPAGE[aTrumpforeignpolicyadvisor]peddledtheKremlinlinethatthebroad
basedEuromaidanrevoltwasaCIAcoup.Inanotherarticle,PagerepresentedUkraineasarunaway
provinceofRussia,andexcusedtheKremlinsaggressionbysayingtheUnitedStateswouldtake
similaractionifQuebectriedtosecedefromCanadaInJanuary2015PagecomparedUSsupport
forUkrainianindependencetothekillingofablackyouthbyAmericanpoliceofficerWithPage
providingTrumpsRussiapolicy,itisnotsurprisingthattheDonaldhasalsoattractedthesupportof
otherprominentPutinites.Forexample,StephenF.Cohen[whowrites]:DonaldTrumphas
emergedastheonlyUSpresidentialcandidatetochallengeWashingtonsbipartisanforeignpolicies
thatcontributedgreatlytotheColdWarOthernoteworthyTrumpsupportersincludeAleksandr
Dugin,thechiefcomposeroftheKremlinsnewideologicalsynthesisofCommunismandfascism
And:MichaelWeiss,FormerUKattorneygeneral[PeterGoldsmith]defendstheRussianmob,
thedailybeast.com,4/4
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/09/201601:43:18AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised|ProspectMagazinetannehausisasmartguy
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/ted-cruz-talented-despised-wisconsin-trump
TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised
RepublicanpresidentialcandidateTedCruzafterwinningtheWisconsinPrimaryon5thApril,2016.Tohis
rightishiswife,Heidi,tohisleftisWisconsinGovernorScottWalkerReiriKurihara/AP/Press
AssociationImages
Readmore:WhatwouldTrumpdo?
Forweeks,allpoliticaleyeshadbeentrainedonWisconsinanditsimportantprimaryon5thApril.Inapresidentialseason
thathasgonefrommarathontocarouselcompletewithtinnysoundtrack,Wisconsinofferedgravity,areturntothesolid
groundofpragmatichigh-informationvoters.Intherun-up,therewasmuchpraiseforWisconsinitesrefreshing
nicenessandcivilitydemonstratedevenbytalk-radiointerrogators.Infactthestate,forallitswonderlandsplendours
ofpineforestsandGreatLakes,isalsothehomeoftwogreatriveringstrainsofAmericanideologythefirstpersonified
byRobertM.LaFollette,theprolaborProgressivewhomountedathird-partycampaignforpresidentin1924andgotan
impressivefivemillionvotestheseconddarklyembodiedinthecoldwardemagogueryofJosephMcCarthywithhiscry
twentyyearsoftreasondirectedatDemocratsinthe1950s.
Insum,theidealvenueforthecampaignstworemainingheart-on-sleeve,high-dudgeonideologuesBernieSandersforthe
DemocratsandTedCruzfortheRepublicans.Sanders,heirtoFightingBobLaFollette,cameintothestatehoarsely
declaringwaronWallStreetbillionairesandwasgreetedbyrapturouscrowdsinMadison,thestatecapitalandsiteofthe
UniversityofWisconsin,thesuperbland-grantinstitution.Cruz,atechnicianofMcCarthy-styleattackonthetraitorous
Washingtoncabalbywhichhemeanslawmakersinbothpartiesrummagedforvotesintheconservativesuburbsof
Milwaukee,withitsenclavesofevangelicalswhoseloveofGodismatchedbytheirfearofSatanicbiggovernment.
Bothmensucceeded,inflictingdamageonthefront-runningcandidaciesnowwobblinglikestruckten-pins.Despite
repeateddefeats,HillaryClintonisfaraheadinthedelegatecountandisalmostcertaintogetherpartysnomination.Still,
Sandershasforcedherintoaprolongedfightonhispopulistterms.TheelderstateswomanoftheObamaadministration
nowrecitesherprogressivebonafidesandhasshedthemantleofherhusbandscentristpresidency.
ForCruz,victorycomeswrappedinbitterirony.HehasatlastbecomethesolepaladinoftheNeverTrump
Movement,butpartyeldersandwealthydonorsdetesthimtheyhavesimplymadethecoldcalculationthatheisbest
positionedtoblockTrumpfromgettingthe1,237delegatesheneedsifheistoendthecontestbeforethepartys
conventioninmid-July.StoppingTrumpwontgiveCruzthenomination.Onthecontrary,atanopenconventionbrokers
couldanointamorepalatablealternative,likeWisconsinsownPaulRyan,theSpeakeroftheHousewholatelyhasaffected
theposeofastatesmansadlygazingdownattheuglyanddivisivescrumbelow.
ButCruzhasdefeatedtheoddsbefore.HehasbeenantagonizingotherRepublicansformuchofhiscareerandstillkeeps
rising,inpartbecauseheisprodigiouslyintelligentquitepossiblythecleverestcandidateinthefield,Democrator
Republican.Foraprofilepublishedin2014,TheNewYorkerslegalwriterJeffreyToobinreadoneofCruzsstudentpapers
atPrincetonitwasontheConstitutionandreportedtheleveloferudition...isextraordinary,especiallyforatwenty-
one-year-oldwhohadnotyetgonetolawschool.LaterCruzdidstudylaw,atHarvard,dazzlinghisprofessors.Hethen
becameperhapsthefinestappellatelawyerofhisgeneration,repeatedlyarguingandwinningcasesattheverytoplevelthe
SupremeCourt.
Atthesametime,Cruzisattunedtothedown-marketretailpoliticsofthecurrentmoment.Agoodexampleistheepisode
thatmadehimfamous(ornotorious),thegovernmentshutdownheorchestratedin2013,whenhehadbeenintheSenate
lessthanayear.HisstatedmissionwastodefundObamacare,whichhenowpromisestorevoketheinstanthetakes
office.EveryotherRepublicanhassaidthesamething.ButwhilecandidateslikeJebBushandMarcoRubiooffered
replacementpoliciestoprotectthe20millioncitizenswhowouldlosetheirinsurance,Teddoesnthaveahealthcare
policy,saysRameshPonnuru,theBloombergandNationalReviewcolumnist,whohasknownCruzformanyyearscalls
himafriend.Hehasthreetalkingpoints,buthehasntputaplanout.Thegreatargumentthatsalwaysmadeabout
Republicans,thattheyfulminateaboutObamacarebutdonthaveaplan,isexemplifiedbyTed.
AllthisinfuriatesotherRepublicans.SodoesCruzshabitofdenouncingseniorcolleagues.IfyoukilledTedCruzonthe
flooroftheSenate,andthetrialwasintheSenate,nobodywouldconvictyou,LindseyGraham,ofSouthCarolina,has
said.YetGrahamisnowfund-raisingforCruz.RossDouthat,theconservativeNewYorkTimescolumnist,haslikenedCruz
toKennethWidmerpool,theservileopportunistinAnthonyPowellscycleofnovels,ADancetotheMusicofTime,who
climbseverclosertopower,incurringscornateverystage.OnedifferenceisthatCruzpossessesgenuinewitand
cheerfullyacceptshowlittlelovedheis.Inarecentlate-nightTVappearance,hewasteasedbyhishost,thecomedian
JimmyKimmel,whosaidofCruzslate-bloomingsuccesswithvotersturningagainstTrump,Youkindofheldoutuntil
theyfoundsomeonethattheylikedlessthanyou.Cruz,grinningthroughthelaughter,replied,Thereyougo.Itisa
powerfulstrategy.
Nowread:HowtheRepublicanscouldstopDonaldTrump
Senttime: 03/30/201609:00:45AM
Subject: FW:ZacharyMider,"TRUMP'snewRussiaadviser[CqarterPAGE]hasdeeptiestoKREMLIN'sGAZPROM."bloomberg.com,3/30
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,March30,20169:00AM
Subject:ZacharyMider,"TRUMP'snewRussiaadviser[CqarterPAGE]hasdeeptiestoKREMLIN'sGAZPROM."bloomberg.com,3/30
InwritingspostedonlinePageisareliabledefenderofRussianinterestsandportraysU.S.
policymakersasstuckinanoutdatedColdwarmindsetPagesaidhisexperienceinadvisingRussian
companiesandpitchingdealsinplaceslikeTurkmenistanwillofferTrumpamorepracticalperspective
thanhehasavailablefrompeoplefromafar,sittinginthecomfortoftheirthinktanksinWashington.
[Economist]SergeyAleksashenkodescribed[Page]asajuniorbankerwithlittleunderstandingof
[Russia].IcouldnotimagineCarterasaanadviseronforeignpolicy,Aleksashenkosaid.
And:RussiaisshippingmoresuppliestoSYRIAthanitisremovingReuters,
themoscowtimesw.com,3/30
And:DavidAXE,RussiassecretweaponoftheISISwar[aflyingtank],thedailybeast.com,3/30
And:The[Russian]economyispullingdemographydownwards,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/blogs/2016/03/29/1502012.html
In2015theRussianpopulationdeclined,forthesecondyearinarow.
And:ArkadiiBABCHENKOHowRussiasprivatemilitarycompanieswork[suchasChVK,involvedin
sendingsoldierstoSyria],http://echo.msk.ru/blog/ababchenko/1739156echo/
And:TheKremlinhaswarnedofanimpendinginformationattackonPutinandhistopcroniesIt
maybecentereduponSergeiRODUGIN,godfatherofoneofPutinsdaughtersandaKGBman:
http://echo.msk.ru/news/1738778echo.html
Senttime: 04/06/201609:03:31AM
FW:"Inthedraftlawconcerninga[Russian]NATIONALGUARDsoldiersaregiventherighttoFIREWITHOUTWARNING[oncrowds],"
Subject:
http://www.newsru.com/russia/06apr2016/law_print.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,April06,20169:03AM
To:'howard@jamestown.org'
Cc:'paul.goble@gmail.com''waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"Inthedraftlawconcerninga[Russian]NATIONALGUARDsoldiersaregiventherighttoFIREWITHOUTWARNING[on
crowds],"http://www.newsru.com/russia/06apr2016/law_print.html
And:SpeakeroftheRussianStateDumaSergeiNARYSHKINboaststhatahypotheticalWARofRussiawithUkrainewouldend
onthefourthdayandeveryoneunderstandswhattheresultwouldbe,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/06apr2016/naryshkin_print.html
And:NewLEVADApollMostRussians[62%]thinkgovernmentcorruptionisUNACCEPTABLE,themoscowtimes.com,4/6
And:PANAMAleak:LithuanianauthoritiesconfirmtransactionsbyPUTINASSOCIATEROLDUGIN,themoscowtimes.com,4/6
TheLithuanianFinancialCrimeInvestigationServicehasconfirmedSergeiRolduginusedLithuanianbankaccountstocarry
outtransactionsusingoffshorecompanies.
And:MajorinvestigationbytheNewYorkTimesshows,interalia,thatDonaldTRUMPhadsignificantbusinessdealingwith
organizedcrimefiguresfromRussiaandKazakhstan,includingthoselinkedtoPUTIN:Trumpsettledsuitandcriminalcasewas
closed.Nytimes.com,4/6
Senttime: 04/14/201611:17:45PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject: InternalAffairs:VedomostionDomesticIssuesTrumpingForeignPolicyattheCallIn(garbagethemeismoreimportantthanUkraine)
http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2016/04/15/637808-prezident-predpochel

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From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 04/09/201606:28:37AM
Subject: Re:TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised|ProspectMagazinetannehausisasmartguy
Attachments: 25996714-1.jpg
Seemsaboutright.IstillthinkTrumpgetsthenominationasdoothershereinSedonalikeBobKagan.ButwhereasIthinkTrump
couldwinthewholething,BobthinksHRCisthewinner.That'swhatTNisholdingoutfor.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnApr9,2016,at1:43AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/ted-cruz-talented-despised-wisconsin-trump
TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised
<25996714-1.jpg>
RepublicanpresidentialcandidateTedCruzafterwinningtheWisconsinPrimaryon5thApril,
2016.Tohisrightishiswife,Heidi,tohisleftisWisconsinGovernorScottWalkerReiri
Kurihara/AP/PressAssociationImages
Readmore:WhatwouldTrumpdo?
Forweeks,allpoliticaleyeshadbeentrainedonWisconsinanditsimportantprimaryon5thApril.Ina
presidentialseasonthathasgonefrommarathontocarouselcompletewithtinnysoundtrack,Wisconsin
offeredgravity,areturntothesolidgroundofpragmatichigh-informationvoters.Intherun-up,therewas
muchpraiseforWisconsinitesrefreshingnicenessandcivilitydemonstratedevenbytalk-radio
interrogators.Infactthestate,forallitswonderlandsplendoursofpineforestsandGreatLakes,isalsothe
homeoftwogreatriveringstrainsofAmericanideologythefirstpersonifiedbyRobertM.LaFollette,the
prolaborProgressivewhomountedathird-partycampaignforpresidentin1924andgotanimpressivefive
millionvotestheseconddarklyembodiedinthecoldwardemagogueryofJosephMcCarthywithhiscry
twentyyearsoftreasondirectedatDemocratsinthe1950s.
Insum,theidealvenueforthecampaignstworemainingheart-on-sleeve,high-dudgeonideologuesBernie
SandersfortheDemocratsandTedCruzfortheRepublicans.Sanders,heirtoFightingBobLaFollette,
cameintothestatehoarselydeclaringwaronWallStreetbillionairesandwasgreetedbyrapturouscrowds
inMadison,thestatecapitalandsiteoftheUniversityofWisconsin,thesuperbland-grantinstitution.Cruz,a
technicianofMcCarthy-styleattackonthetraitorousWashingtoncabalbywhichhemeanslawmakersin
bothpartiesrummagedforvotesintheconservativesuburbsofMilwaukee,withitsenclavesofevangelicals
whoseloveofGodismatchedbytheirfearofSatanicbiggovernment.
Bothmensucceeded,inflictingdamageonthefront-runningcandidaciesnowwobblinglikestruckten-pins.
Despiterepeateddefeats,HillaryClintonisfaraheadinthedelegatecountandisalmostcertaintogether
partysnomination.Still,Sandershasforcedherintoaprolongedfightonhispopulistterms.Theelder
stateswomanoftheObamaadministrationnowrecitesherprogressivebonafidesandhasshedthemantle
ofherhusbandscentristpresidency.
ForCruz,victorycomeswrappedinbitterirony.HehasatlastbecomethesolepaladinoftheNeverTrump
Movement,butpartyeldersandwealthydonorsdetesthimtheyhavesimplymadethecoldcalculationthat
heisbestpositionedtoblockTrumpfromgettingthe1,237delegatesheneedsifheistoendthecontest
beforethepartysconventioninmid-July.StoppingTrumpwontgiveCruzthenomination.Onthecontrary,
atanopenconventionbrokerscouldanointamorepalatablealternative,likeWisconsinsownPaulRyan,
theSpeakeroftheHousewholatelyhasaffectedtheposeofastatesmansadlygazingdownattheuglyand
divisivescrumbelow.
ButCruzhasdefeatedtheoddsbefore.HehasbeenantagonizingotherRepublicansformuchofhiscareer
andstillkeepsrising,inpartbecauseheisprodigiouslyintelligentquitepossiblythecleverestcandidatein
thefield,DemocratorRepublican.Foraprofilepublishedin2014,TheNewYorkerslegalwriterJeffrey
ToobinreadoneofCruzsstudentpapersatPrincetonitwasontheConstitutionandreportedthelevelof
erudition...isextraordinary,especiallyforatwenty-one-year-oldwhohadnotyetgonetolawschool.
LaterCruzdidstudylaw,atHarvard,dazzlinghisprofessors.Hethenbecameperhapsthefinestappellate
lawyerofhisgeneration,repeatedlyarguingandwinningcasesattheverytopleveltheSupremeCourt.
Atthesametime,Cruzisattunedtothedown-marketretailpoliticsofthecurrentmoment.Agoodexampleis
theepisodethatmadehimfamous(ornotorious),thegovernmentshutdownheorchestratedin2013,when
hehadbeenintheSenatelessthanayear.HisstatedmissionwastodefundObamacare,whichhenow
promisestorevoketheinstanthetakesoffice.EveryotherRepublicanhassaidthesamething.Butwhile
candidateslikeJebBushandMarcoRubioofferedreplacementpoliciestoprotectthe20millioncitizenswho
wouldlosetheirinsurance,Teddoesnthaveahealthcarepolicy,saysRameshPonnuru,theBloomberg
andNationalReviewcolumnist,whohasknownCruzformanyyearscallshimafriend.Hehasthreetalking
points,buthehasntputaplanout.ThegreatargumentthatsalwaysmadeaboutRepublicans,thatthey
fulminateaboutObamacarebutdonthaveaplan,isexemplifiedbyTed.
AllthisinfuriatesotherRepublicans.SodoesCruzshabitofdenouncingseniorcolleagues.IfyoukilledTed
CruzontheflooroftheSenate,andthetrialwasintheSenate,nobodywouldconvictyou,LindseyGraham,
ofSouthCarolina,hassaid.YetGrahamisnowfund-raisingforCruz.RossDouthat,theconservativeNew
YorkTimescolumnist,haslikenedCruztoKennethWidmerpool,theservileopportunistinAnthonyPowells
cycleofnovels,ADancetotheMusicofTime,whoclimbseverclosertopower,incurringscornatevery
stage.OnedifferenceisthatCruzpossessesgenuinewitandcheerfullyacceptshowlittlelovedheis.Ina
recentlate-nightTVappearance,hewasteasedbyhishost,thecomedianJimmyKimmel,whosaidofCruzs
late-bloomingsuccesswithvotersturningagainstTrump,Youkindofheldoutuntiltheyfoundsomeonethat
theylikedlessthanyou.Cruz,grinningthroughthelaughter,replied,Thereyougo.Itisapowerful
strategy.
Nowread:HowtheRepublicanscouldstopDonaldTrump
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/15/201604:20:52AM
Subject: Re:InternalAffairs:VedomostionDomesticIssuesTrumpingForeignPolicyattheCallIn(garbagethemeismoreimportantthanUkraine)
Ilikethisanalysisverymuch.
2016-04-152:17GMT-04:00RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2016/04/15/637808-prezident-predpochel

,
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(..05),,,,
.
.,,
.,,,
,,.
.,
,,
.,,
:,,.
(),
,.,
,:,
.
14-
340,
80
2,5,
-.
,
.,,
,,,
:.
.,2012-2014-.
,
:,,
.
,,
,:,
.,
.,,
.
Senttime: 04/13/201609:45:47AM
FW:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UARUforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATOforcesDiplomacyUS
Subject:
policyCyberSwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-KarabakhRefugeesRussianf...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,April12,20166:40PM
Subject:Fwd:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UARUforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATOforces
DiplomacyUSpolicyCyberSwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-KarabakhRefugees
Russianf...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Apr12,2016at9:33PM
Subject:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UARUforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATO
forcesDiplomacyUSpolicyCyberSwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-Karabakh
RefugeesRussianforcesinSyria.......[MH]IRFStatement:Therighttoutmosttruthdiseasecontradictsopensociety.....[VRT]
OlexanderDugin's'Arctogaic-Eurasianist'SpectreHauntsEurope[Despitethezaninessofthewriting,theitemsprovidedneed'close
consideration']
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATOforcesDiplomacyUSpolicyCyber
SwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-KarabakhRefugeesRussianforcesinSyria
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FightinginEasternUkraine
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30hrs,11April2016
TheSMMobservedalowernumberofceasefireviolationsinDonetskregioncomparedtotheprevioustwodays.[1]Whilst
positionedatDonetskcitycentreduringthenightof10April,theSMMheard14undeterminedexplosions7-10kmnorth-westand
north-north-westofitsposition.WhilstattheDonetskcentralrailwaystation(DPR-controlled,6kmnorth-westofDonetskcity
centre),duringtheday,theSMMregistered181undeterminedexplosions,86shotsofsmall-armsandfiveburstsofheavy-machine-
gunfire,andmorethan30burstsofanti-aircraft-gunfire(23mm)atlocations3-5kmnorth,east,west-north-west,north-westand
north-north-westofitslocation.
WhilstnearDPR-controlledYasynuvata(16kmnorth-eastofDonetsk),theSMMheardoneimpactand103undetermined
explosions,44shotsand40burstsofsmall-armsfire,andfiveburstsofheavy-machine-gunfireatlocations2-5kmeast,south-west,
west,andnorth-westofitslocation.Whilstingovernment-controlledAvdiivka(17kmnorth-westofDonetsk),theSMMheard18
impactsandthreeburstsofrecoillessgun(SPG-9,73mm),siximpactsand12shotsofautomatic-grenade-launcherrounds(AGS17,
30mm),siximpactsofmortarrounds(two82andfour120mm),28burstsofheavy-machine-gunand42burstsofanti-aircraft-gunfire
(ZU-23-2,23mm),twoimpactsofartilleryrounds(one122andone152mm)and14burstsofsmall-armsfireatlocations2.2-8km
north-east,east,south-east,south-south-east,south,andsouth-south-westofitslocation.
Positionedingovernment-controlledSvitlodarsk(57kmnorth-eastofDonetsk),duringtheeveningof10April,theSMMheardat
least25burstsofsmall-armsfire,atleast20burstsofheavy-machine-gunfire,morethan70undeterminedmortarexplosionsandfive
explosionsof120mmmortarrounds,15roundsofautomatic-grenade-launcherfire,andfiveoutgoingBMP-1roundsatlocations3-
10kmsouthandsouth-eastofitsposition.Duringthesametime,theSMMheardatleast20burstsofheavy-machine-gunfire(BMP-
2,30mm)3-4kmsouth-south-westand60undeterminedmortarexplosionsatlocations8-10kmnorth-north-westofitsposition.
WhilstinDPR-controlledHorlivka(39kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)ontheeveningof10ApriltheSMMheardinlessthan90
minutes48mortarexplosions(82mm),sawandheardmorethan135burstsandairburstsofanti-aircraft-gunfire(ZU-23,23mm),
heard24artilleryexplosions(16122andnine152mm),sawandheardsixexplosionscausedbyanti-tankmissilesandover100
burstsofmachine-gunandsmall-armsfireatlocations2-3kmsouth-eastaswellas4-13kmsouth-west,westandnorth-westofits
location.
Whilstingovernment-controlledMariupol(102kmsouthofDonetsk)duringtheeveningof10April,theSMMregistered32
undeterminedexplosionsatanunknowndistancetotheeastofitsposition.Positioned2kmsouth-eastofgovernment-controlled
ZelenyiHai(46kmsouth-westofDonetsk),theSMMheard24singleshotsintwominutesapproximately1kmwestofitsposition.
AccordingtotheJCCC,therewereongoinglive-fireexercisesataUkrainianArmedForcestrainingarea,withinthesecurityzone.
InLuhanskregiontheSMMregisteredalownumberofceasefireviolations,withseveralassessedaslive-firetrainingexercises.Whilst
inLPR-controlledKomisarivka(61kmsouth-westofLuhansk),theSMMheardfourshotsofsmall-armsfire300msouth-eastofits
position.FrompositionsinLPR-controlledareasofOrikhivkaandMalomykolaivka(32kmsouthand36kmsouth-westofLuhansk,
respectively),theSMMheardfiveexplosionscausedbyoutgoingartilleryrounds5-6kmwestandtwoundeterminedexplosions1-
2kmnorth-east,respectively,assessedaslive-firetrainingexercisesinareasoutsidethesecurityzone.Whilstingovernment-controlled
Zolote-4,theSMMheardanundeterminedexplosionandsawsmokerising500msouth-south-westofitsposition,assessedtobe
causedbyananti-tankmine.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/232841
Falseequivalency
RecentstatementsfromtheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEuropeandfromaspokespersonfortheEuropeanUnion
havecalledonallsidestotakeappropriatestepstode-escalatetheconflictineasternUkraine.Thisisnotonlyunhelpful,itis
misleading.Toacasualobservertheinterpretationofsuchastatementisthatbothsidessharetheguiltforescalatinginsteadofending
thewar.
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/paul-niland-false-equivalency-411840.html
UkraineReports79AttacksYesterday
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-785/?pressId=13305#13305
Russianforces

Newly-FormedNationalGuardCannotDispelPutinsMultipleInsecurities
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?
tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45301&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=d1b68b00d328040f3ce50cdb1fce5b50#.Vw0jrqR96Ul
PutinsNewPraetorianGuard
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?
tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45287&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=827&no_cache=1#.Vw1k3aR96Uk
[SentbyStefanForss]
Putinssecretarmy:Russianpresidentisaccusedofbuildingbattlegroupstrainedinclosecombatwhoarereadyforoperationsin
westernEurope
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3533605/Putin-s-secret-army-Russian-president-accused-building-battle-groups-trained-
close-combat-ready-operation-western-Europe.html#ixzz45eMyzQ6G
[SentbyStefanForss]
Ukrainesituation
UkraineIsFightingThreeWars,AllOfWhichAreGettingHotter
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-is-fighting-three-wars-all-of-which-are-getting-hotter/
Navalny
RussianOppositionPicksHolesInStateTV'Expos'OfNavalny
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/russia-opposition-mocks-state-tv-navalny-expose/27667901.html
TinkertailorNavalnyspyQuestionsyoushouldbeaskingaboutRussiantelevisionslatestbombshell
http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/12/tinker-tailor-navalny-spy
NATOforces
NorwayshortlistsDCNSandThyssenKruppforsubprogram
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/submarines/2016/04/08/norway-dcns-thyssenkrupp-submarine/82791180/
MakeNATOGreatAgain
http://cepa.org/make-nato-great-again
[SentbyStefanForss]
Germanarmyforcedtolaydownweaponsdueto'overtimelimits'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/10/german-army-forced-to-lay-down-weapons-due-to-overtime-limits/
Diplomacy
NATO-Russia:Asteptowardsrapprochement?
Europe'ssecurityprioritieshavechangedconsiderablysinceRussia'sannexationofCrimea.Butdonewthreatstrumpoldalliances?
DWaskswhethertheupcomingNATO-RussiaCouncilmeetingsignalsathawinrelations.
http://m.dw.com/en/nato-russia-a-step-towards-rapprochement/a-19179121
[SentbyAndrewMichta]
USpolicy
RemarksWithRussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov
http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/03/255138.htm
Cyber
Lithuanianparliamentundercyberattack
http://www.euractiv.com/section/digital/news/lithuanian-parliament-under-cyber-attack/
WithmuchofSwedensairtrafficcrippledon4Nov.2015,authoritiesintheScandinaviancountrynotifiedNATOofaserious,
ongoingcyberattackbyahackergrouplinkedtoRussianintelligence.
http://www.aldrimer.no/sweden-issued-cyber-attack-alert-as-its-air-traffic-reeled/
Sweden
RobertDalsj:Hirdmansljersmretochtapparpengarna
http://www.svd.se/robert-dalsjo-hirdman-saljer-smoret-och-tappar-pengarna/om/sakerhetsradet
Researchmethods
ReportingBiasandInformationWarfare
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/mbaum/documents/zb_isa_v5.pdf
History
UkrainepreparestomakeSovietKGBarchivesavailableonline
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/04/11/ukraine-prepares-to-make-soviet-kgb-archives-available-online/
Corruption
CorruptionIsTheNewCommunism
http://www.rferl.org/content/corruption-is-the-new-communism/27669638.html
Panamapapers
PanamaPapersRussianMobConnection
ThetroveofleakeddocumentshasalreadyrevealedthebillionsswirlingaroundPutin.NowaSwissfirmnamedinthepapersappears
tohavelinkstoRussianorganizedcrime.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/12/panama-papers-russian-mob-connection.html

Media
FortRuss'sexclusiveinvestigationshedslightontheallegationsofimproprietyoveratRussiaInsiderandthestorybehinditall
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/04/bausman-and-fraud-at-russia-insider.html?m=1
TheWorldHasStartedSpendingMoreonWeapons
TensionsinAsiaandEasternEuropespurfirstrisesinceIraqandAfghanpullouts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/global-military-spending-rose-in-2015-stockholm-peace-institute
[SentbyRobertDalsj]
Nagorno-Karabakh
AzerbaijansIncrementalIncreaseOnTheNagornoKarabaghFrontline
http://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2016/04/12/detailing-azerbaijans-incremental-increase-in-nagorno-karabaghs-frontline/
Armenia,AzerbaijanAirGrievancesAgainst"Allies"
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/78266
Refugees
Muistiopaljastaa:SuominyrtyiVenjllerajaneuvotteluissa
http://m.iltalehti.fi/uutiset/2016041221403121_uu.shtml
[SentbyStefanForss]
RussianforcesinSyria
WeeksafterpulloutfromSyria,Russianmilitaryisasbusyasever
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/weeks-after-pullout-from-syria-russian-military-is-as-busy-as-
ever/2016/04/11/d150a004-fd77-11e5-a569-2c9e819c14e4_story.html?postshare=4061460469026859&tid=ss_tw-bottom
AssadhastakenRussia'hostage,'andwhatcomesnextcouldbe'theworstthiswarhasseen'
Assuch,itappearsthatRussia'sattemptlastmonthtoforceAssadintoacornerbyannouncingapartialwithdrawalofadvisers
andwarplaneshasbackfired.AssadappearstohaverealizedthatRussia'sreputationasaleaderintheMiddleEastdepends,at
leastfornow,onmaintainingthestatusquoandkeepingtheregimeintact.
Russia'sinterventioninthewaronAssad'sbehalfinlateSeptemberwasfollowedbyaregimeoffensivetorecaptureAleppofromthe
rebelsthroughouttheendof2015.ButthattaskwaslargelyleftunfinishedbythetimeRussiadecidedto"withdraw"lastmonth,even
afterpro-governmentforceswonamajorvictoryinJanuarybybreakingarebelsiegeontwovillagesnorthwestofAleppothatserved
asTurkey'ssupplylinetorebelsthere.
ThefactthatPutinorderedRussiatode-escalateatsuchapivotalmomentforAssadmayhavebeenpartofabroaderRussian
strategytomaintainMoscow'sleverageattheforthcomingpeacetalksinGenevaoverAssadasmuchasovertheUS.Butthe
embattledpresidentnowseemspreparedtocallRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sbluff.
Russiais"afraidifsomebodyelseremoveshimortheyremovehim,thewholestatewillcollapse,"PaulSalem,thevicepresidentof
policyandresearchattheWashington-basedMiddleEastInstitute,toldTheWallStreetJournallastweekend.
"Theyarehostagetohiscontinuedsurvival,"Salemadded."He[Assad]canwithstandRussiandispleasureandirritation.Hefeels
undernocompulsiontomakemajorconcessions."
http://uk.businessinsider.com/syria-assad-russia-aleppo-offensive-2016-4
Syriaconflict:Russianhelicoptercrashes,killingtwocrew
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36022273?ocid=socialflow_twitter
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:2016-04-1216:45GMT-04:00
Subject:IRFStatement[ED:ANOTEONTHE"HYPER-DEMOCRACY"or"JUSTOL'FASHIONEDPOPULISM"
SWEEPINGUA......andtherestoftheWestaswell(left&right)......OHBOY!!!]
http://www.irf.ua/en/knowledgebase/news/khvoroba_prava_na_istinu_superechit_vidkritomu_suspilstvu/
Therighttoutmosttruthdiseasecontradictsopensociety
11APRIL2016
CommentbytheInternationalRenaissanceFoundation
Theinvestigation,performedbyjournalistsoftheSlidstvo.InfoprogramoftheHromadske.TVinpartnership
withtheInternationalConsortiumofInvestigativeJournalists(ICIJ)andtheOrganizedCrimeandCorruption
ReportingProject(OCCRP)hasdisclosedanobviousfactoftheexistenceofanoff-shorecompanywhose
beneficiaryisthePresidentofUkraine.Thisfactshouldreceiveitsjustappraisal.
Atthesametime,theproposedinterpretationofthedisclosedfindingshascausedreasonedcriticismbyexperts,
recognizedjournalists,andrepresentativesofleadingNGOs,which,liketheHromadske.TV,havehadlong-
standingandproductivecooperationwiththeFoundationindefendingthefreedomofspeechinUkraine.
ThereactionoftheSlidstvo.Infojournalistsreactiontothereasonedcriticismisdisappointing.Theyresorted
tothepositionofuncriticalself-justificationwithoutanyhintofrecognitionoftheirviolationofjournalistic
standards,namelythemanipulationofthefacts.Theauthorsoftheinvestigationdonotrecognizethatthe
connectionbetweenthePresidentsoffshorecompanyandtheIlovaysktragedyisartificialtheyhaveno
evidenceoftheRoshenassetsbeingmovedtotheoffshorearea,northeevidencethatoffshorecompanywas
createdpreciselytoavoidsalestaxes.
Inrelationtothispositiontakenbythe"Slidstvo.info"investigativejournalists,wehavetonotethatthe
journalistssyndromeoftherighttoholdtheabsolutetruth"runsnotonlycontrarytotheprincipleofbalanced
presentationofinformation.
Thereforms,havingreceivedthecleardirectiontowardstheEuropeanvaluesgivenbyMaidan,arecomplex
andsometimescontradictory.Assessingthemintwocolorsalone,"black"or"white"aredestructiveforthe
countrysprogress,astheynourishpoliticalpopulismandencourageaggressiveincompetenceinallspheresof
thesociety.
Buildingontheinteresttotheoffshoretopic,whichisimportantforthesociety,further"revelations"aboutthe
headofstatecontinuethroughuncriticalpublicationsofmaterialsofpoliticallymotivatedaccusationsof2003-
2004,inspiredbytheregimeofthattime.
Injournalism,thisunderminestheveryessenceoffreedomofspeech,replacingitwithaspacefor
compromatandmanipulation.Aseeminglyhonestpositionofachiefjustice,occupiedbyinvestigatorsof
hiddencorruption,isabletoturnintoitsownopposite,provokingthedevelopmentofmassdistrustofthe
mediasinformationmission.
AsrepresentativesoftheInternationalRenaissanceFoundation,whosemissionistopromoteanopen
democraticsociety,wedeclarethatthesolerighttoutmosttruthcontradictsthecorevalueofsuchasociety.No
onehasthatright.Everyrationalargumentshouldbeheard.
ItisourhopethattheteamandtheBoardofTrusteesoftheHromadske.TVwillfindtherightwaytoovercome
thisdangeroussyndromeinitsownenvironment.Bydoingso,itwillhelppreventitsfurtherspreadinthepublic
spaceofthecivilsociety.
YaremaBachynskiy
YevhenBystrytsky
TarasKachka
NataliyaLygachova-Chernolytska
InnaPidluska
IgorSemyvolos
IrynaSeniuta
OleksandrSushko
ValentynaTelychenko
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Apr12,2016at10:50AM
Subject:OlexanderDugin's'Arctogaic-Eurasianist'SpectreHauntsEurope.....[ED:RU'sopuson'HybridWarefare'isa
'mustnote'item]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Dugin'sArctogaic-EurasianismhasinvadedRUstrategicthinkingseeaRUstudyof:HybridWarfareasa"USRegime
ChangePlot"
NationalBolshevism.comisbackinbusiness!!!
AmustreadforthosetryingtodelvethemindsetoftheKremlinthesedays!!
COMPARE&CONTRAST:
http://orientalreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AK-Hybrid-Wars-updated.pdf
http://arctogaia.com/public/engl1.htm
Senttime: 04/04/201608:45:59AM
FW:[LATESUNNITERUN][JD&PBonVLADBREAKINGBAD---THEPANAMAEPISODE]Fwd:Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2
Subject: billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwasworriedabout!]AllPutinsMen:SecretRecordsRevealMoneyNetwork
TiedtoRus
Sent:Sunday,April03,20168:23PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][JD&PBonVLADBREAKINGBAD---THEPANAMAEPISODE]Fwd:Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2
billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwasworriedabout!]AllPutinsMen:SecretRecordsRevealMoneyNetwork
TiedtoRuss...
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Sun,Apr3,2016at5:44PM
Subject:Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwasworried
about!]
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwas
worriedabout!]
See:PANAMAPAPERS:MossackFonsecaLEAKrevealselitestaxhavens,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-35918844
Elevenmilliondocumentswereleakedfromoneoftheworldsmostsecretivecompanies,Panamanianlaw
firmMossackFonseca.TheyshowhowMossackFonsecahashelpedclientslaundermoney,dodge
sanctionsandevadetaxesThedocumentsshowlinksto72currentorformerheadsofstateinthedata,
includingdictatorsaccusedoflootingtheirowncountries.It[thedata]revealsasuspectedbillion-dollar
moneylaunderingringthatwasrunbyaRussianbankandinvolvedcloseassociatesofPresidentPutin.The
operationwasrunbyBankRossiyawhichissubjecttoUSandEUsanctionsfollowingRussiasannexation
ofCrimeaMoneyhasbeenchanneledthroughoffshorecompanies,twoofwhichwereofficiallyowned
byoneoftheRussianpresidentsclosestfriends[SergeiROLDUGIN].ConcertcellistSergeiRodulginhas
knownVladimirPutinsincetheywereteenagersandisgodfathertothepresidentsdaughterMaria.
DocumentsfromMr.Rolduginscompaniesstatethat:ThecompanyisacorporateSCREENestablished
principallytoprotecttheidentityandconfidentialityoftheultimatebeneficialownerofthecompany.
And:NovayaGazetapostsamajorinvestigativepieceontheRolduginaffair:http://krug.novayagazeta.ru/12-
zoloto-partituri

And:SMIraswkrylitainuyuofshornuyuimperiyusaktivamivmilliardydollarov,zakotrooistoyat
DRUZYAPUTINA,http://newsru.com/russia/03apr2016/zeitung_print.html
And:MikhailLESINsstrangedeathinU.S.followsafallfromRussiaswelite,nytimes.com,4/3
And:TheLong-HaulTRUCKERSholdanofficiallysanctionedprotestmeeting(undertheguiseofa
meetingwithelectedlegislaturedeputies)inMoscow:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/mynameisphilipp/1741294-
echo/
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:AllPutinsMen:SecretRecordsRevealMoneyNetworkTiedtoRussianLeaderICIJ
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
GoodsummaryofPutin'skleptocracy'sstashedcash.
http://panamapapers.icij.org/20160403-putin-russia-offshore-network.html
Inthisstory
Accordingtoanalysis,asmuchas$2billionhasbeensecretlyshuffledthroughbanksandshadowcompanieslinked
toPutinsassociates
BankRossiya,identifiedbytheU.S.asPutinspersonalcashbox,hasbeeninstrumentalinbuildinganetworkof
offshorecompanies
Dozensofloans,someworthhundredsofmillionsofdollars,soldbetweenoffshorecompaniesforaslittleas$1or
less
VladimirPutinandSergeyRolduginforgedabondasyoungmen.Fastfriends,almostlikebrothers,they
cruisedthestreetsofLeningrad,singingand,inPutinscase,occasionallygettingintofistfights.
AsPutinrosetopowerasRussiassupremeleaderandRolduginmadeanameforhimselfasaclassical
cellistandconductor,thetworemainedclose.RolduginhasperformedforPutinandhigh-profileguestsat
thepresidentsofficialresidenceandhasgivenmediainterviewsthatsoftenedPutinsfearsomeimage.
Nowaleakofsecretdocumentsrevealsanother,hiddensideoftheirfriendship.
TherecordsshowRolduginisabehind-the-scenesplayerinaclandestinenetworkoperatedbyPutin
associatesthathasshuffledatleast$2billionthroughbanksandoffshorecompanies,aninvestigationby
theInternationalConsortiumofInvestigativeJournalists,GermandailySddeutscheZeitungandother
mediapartnershasfound.
Inthedocuments,Rolduginislistedastheownerofoffshorecompaniesthathaveobtainedpaymentsfrom
othercompaniesworthtensofmillionsofdollars.Acompanylinkedtothecellistalsograbbedsecret
influenceoverRussiaslargesttruckmaker,anothersnaggedabigsliceofRussiasTVadvertisingindustry.
ItspossibleRoldugin,whohaspubliclyclaimednottobeabusinessman,isnotthetruebeneficiaryof
theseriches.Instead,theevidenceinthefilessuggestsRolduginisactingasafrontmanforanetworkof
PutinloyalistsandperhapsforPutinhimself.
Roldugindidnotrespondtodetailedquestions.ReportersfromtheOrganizedCrimeandCorruption
ReportingProject,anICIJpartner,metbrieflywiththemusicianafteraconcertinMoscowlastweek.
Roldugintoldthemheneededmoretimetoreviewthequestionsanddeterminewhathecouldsay.
About100financialdealsrelatedtothenetworkaredescribedintheleakeddocuments.Theyarecomplex.
Paymentsaredisguisedinvariousways.Onpaper,sharesincompaniesareswappedbackandforthina
day.Documentsarebackdated.Questionablefinancialpenaltiesareassessed.Therightstomultimillion-
dollarloansaresoldbetweenoffshorecompaniesfor$1.
Inalmosteveryinstance,theresultisthesame:moneyandpowermovesinthedirectionofthenetwork,to
companiesandpeoplealliedtoPutin.Thenetworkscovertdealsallowedittoreceivemoneyinavarietyof
waysincludinghundredsofmillionsofdollarsinsweetheartloansfromabankcontrolledbytheRussian
government.
ExteriorofPutin'sPalace
inRussia.Photo:RussianWikileaks(CCBY3.0)
TheleakeddocumentscomefromthefilesofMossackFonseca,aPanama-basedlawfirmthatregistered
someoftheRoldugincompaniesandhelpedadministerthenetworksholdingsintheBritishVirginIslands
andotheroffshorehavens.
ForyearstherehavebeenreportsmainlyfromwhistleblowersaboutPutinssecretwealth.Afew
offshorecompanies,apalaceandamegayachthaveallbeensaidtobelongtotheRussianleader.Various
newsorganizationshavealsonotedhowthepeoplearoundPutinhavebecomerich.Yetadetailedpicture
ofthehiddenfinancialaffairsofPutinscirclehasremainedelusive.
Therecordsrevealwhatuntilnowhasmostlybeenthestuffofrumor:howPutinscroniessecretlyconduct
theirbusiness.Thelawfirmsinternalfilesshowhowminionsandproxiescreatedstructurestohideand
movethesecretwealth.Therecordsincludeemailcorrespondence,bankaccountforms,loanagreements,
sharetransactionsandpassportscans.Dates,cashamountsandcontracttermsaredetailed.
Loyaltyandlong-heldrelationshipshelpbindthenetworktogether.ItsafraternityofPutinconfidants.Many
ofthemenwhoseinterestsarereflectedintheleakedfilesarePutincomradeswhosehistorywithhim
tracesbackdecadestoSt.Petersburg,thecityknown,beforethefalloftheSovietUnion,asLeningrad.
ThereisRoldugin,whoisgodfathertoPutinseldestdaughter.ThenthereisYuryKovalchuk,abankerwho
forgedlinkswiththefuturepresidentwhenPutinwasamunicipalofficial,andArkadyRotenberg,a
childhoodchumwhohasbecomeabillionairethroughstate-sponsoredconstructionprojects,oilpipelines
andotherventures.
Manyofthemenlinkedtothenetwork,includingPutin,sharesomethingelseincommonbesideshistory.
TheyareconnectedtotheSt.Petersburg-basedBankRossiya,whichtheU.S.governmenthasidentified
asPutinspersonalcashbox.
ThefilesmakeclearthatBankRossiyabuiltthenetwork.Itsemployeestendedtoit,workingtocreatethe
offshorecompanies,assigningownershiptoRolduginandothersandshepherdingthetransactionsthrough
banksinRussia,CyprusandSwitzerland.
TheeconomicmodelforhowmembersofPutinscirclehavesharedtheprofitsfromthisnetworkwasalso
establishedbackinSt.Petersburg.Inthe1990s,PutinandtheBankRossiyaownerscreatedacooperative
foragatedcommunitywheretheyallhadhouses.Thecooperativekeptabankaccountincommon.Each
couldputmoneyin,andanyonecouldtakeitout.
NowhereintheMossackFonsecafilesisthenameoftheRussianpresident,aformerKGBspymaster,
actuallymentioned.AudiorecordingsandwitnessaccountsshowthatevenwhenPutinsclosestconfidants
privatelydiscusshisfinancialdealings,theyusepseudonymsforhimorsimplygesturetotheheavens
ratherthanutterhisname.
Itsinconceivable,though,thatthenetworkcouldhaveexistedwithouttheknowledgeandsupportofPutin,
saidKarenDawisha,aU.S.politicalscientistwhohaswrittenextensivelyaboutPutinandhisregime.
Hetakeswhathewants,saidDawisha.WhenyouarethepresidentofRussiayoudontneedawritten
contract.Youarethelaw.
AfterreceivingdetailedquestionsfromICIJanditsmediapartners,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskov
denouncedtheforthcomingarticlesinapressconferenceasanattackandaseriesoffibs,accordingto
Russiannewsservices.Peskovreportedlysaidthatthequestionsconcernedoffshorecompaniesanda
largenumberofbusinessmenPutinhadneverseeninhislife.
Denyingsomethingnumeroustimesorcommentingonsomethingthathasnorelationtousisjustsilly,
Peskovtoldreporters.
Tiesoffriendship
ThereisavideoonYouTubeofArkadyRotenberg,aformerjudoinstructorwhobecameabillionairethanks
toPutin.Heisstandingwithagroupofmen.Putinwalkspast,flankedbyhissecuritydetail.Rotenberg
doesntseehimcoming.Withoutbreakingstride,PutinrubsRotenbergshead,mussinghishair,likeone
wouldadogorachild.
Ofallthoseinhisinnercircle,ArkadyandhisbrotherBorisRotenberghaveknownPutinthelongest.Their
friendshipdatestothe1960s,whenasboystheysparredtogetherinamartialartsclub.Thetiesof
friendshipgrewtoencompassbusinessaswell.
TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.governmentissuedsanctionsagainstArkadyRotenbergin2014,in
retaliationforPutinsinvasionofUkraine.TheU.S.alsosanctionedhisbrotherBoris.
TheU.S.TreasurynotedthetwohadamassedenormousamountsofwealthduringtheyearsofPutins
rulefromRussiangovernmentcontracts,includingroughly$7billionfortheSochiOlympicgames.The
sanctionsdocumentcoylydescribedthereasonforthedesignationasactingfororonbehalfofasenior
officialoftheRussianFederation.
In2013,theyearbeforethesanctionswereissued,oneofArkadyRotenbergscompaniesreceived
potentiallylucrativegovernmentcontractstoworkonaproposed$40billionnaturalgaspipelinebetween
RussiaandEurope.Aroundthesametime,threeanonymouscompaniesmadehugepaymentsintothe
Putinnetwork,recordsshow.Twooftheshadowcompanies,andlikelyallthree,werecontrolledbyArkady
Rotenberg,accordingtotheMossackFonsecafiles.
LoansfromtheseRotenbergcompaniestotalingmorethan$231millionappeartohavegonetoaBritish
VirginIslands-basedcompanycalledSunbarnLimited,createdbyamanageratBankRossiya.Theloans
hadnorepaymentschedule.
ArkadyRotenbergdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.
InthecaseoftheRotenbergs,theMossackFonsecadocumentssuggesthiddenbusinessdealingsbetween
Putinandhisoldfriends.WhenitcomestoSergeyRoldugin,thedocumentsinthefilesfalselystatethathe
isnotpoliticallyconnected,obscuringthemusiciansroleinthescheme.
ChristeningofValdimirPutin's
daughterMasha.SergeyRoldugin(farright)wasthegodfather.
TheresnoquestionthatRolduginandPutinareclose.SomepublicationshavecalledhimPutinsbest
friend.Intheearly1980s,RolduginarrangedadoubledateonwhichPutinmethisfuturewife,Lyudmila.
PutinselectedRoldugintobethegodfatherofhisfirstchild,Maria,asacredroleinRussianOrthodox
tradition.AphotoofPutincradlingMaria,besidehiswifeandRoldugincanbereadilyfoundontheInternet.
MossackFonsecaandbankersinSwitzerlandappeartohaveignoredeasilyobtainableevidenceofPutin
andRolduginsbonds.BanksarerequiredbylawinSwitzerlandtodetermineifaccountholdersare
connectedtopoliticianstosafeguardagainstimproperuseoftheaccount.Theindustrytermforthisis
politicallyexposedpersons,orPEPs.
TheMossackFonsecafilescontainanapplicationbyGazprombankSwitzerlandin2014toopenabank
accountforacompanyinRolduginsname.Theformexplicitlyaskedwhethertheownerofthecompany
hadanyrelationtoPEPsorVIPs.
Theanswer:no.
Thebankhadalegalobligationtocheckthesedeclarations,saidMarkPieth,formerheadofthe
organizedcrimesectionoftheSwissjusticeministry.Rolduginis,byhisproximitytoaservingheadof
state,clearlyanexposedperson.
Gazprombankdeclinedtocomment.
InalettertoICIJ,MossackFonsecasaidthefirmhasdulyestablishedpoliciesandprocedurestoidentify
andhandlecasesinvolvingpoliticiansorpeopleassociatedwiththem.Itsaidthecompanyconsideredthose
casestobehighriskandconductsmoreintensechecksandperiodicfollowups.Weconductthorough
duediligenceonallnewandprospectiveclientsthatoftenexceedsinstringencytheexistingrulesand
standardstowhichweandothersarebound.
RolduginsfriendshipwithPutinlikelylandedhimintheexclusiveclubofBankRossiyashareholders.In
2010,aRussiannewsservicedisclosedRolduginownedmorethan3percentofthebank.
ThecellisttoldtheNewYorkTimesin2014thatyearsbackhehadneededmoneyandthatarrangements
weremadetogethimastake.Whathehadtodoforthoseshareswasnotspecified.
ThehistoryofBankRossiyaisallaboutitsshareholdersworkingtogethercooperatively.
Lakeofmoney
YuryKovalchukandPutinturnedtheirattentiontoBankRossiyain1991,whenitslargestshareholderwas
stilltheLeningradCommunistParty.
Atthattime,Putinwasdeputymayorandthepersonresponsibleforattractingforeigninvestorsandforming
public-privatepartnerships.
AfterthefalloftheSovietUnioninDecember1991,Putinsignedthedocumentsbestowingownershipofthe
bankonanewlyformedjointventurecreatedbyKovalchukandothers,accordingtoDawisha,authorof
PutinsKleptocracy:WhoOwnsRussia?
Putinsfunctionwastomakelegalwhatwouldotherwisehavebeenillegal,Dawishasaid.
KovalchukbecamemajorityshareholderandboardchairofthisnewversionofBankRossiya.Whenthe
U.S.governmentsanctionedhimin2014,itdescribedKovalchukasoneofPutinscashiers.
Inthemid-1990s,Kovalchukandafewothershareholdersofthebankowneddachasafewhoursoutside
oftownontheeasternshoreoftheKomsomolskoyeLake.Putinfoundthemoneytobuyaproperty.The
menformedaco-operativesocietytobenefittheeightresidentsoftheirsharedgatedcommunity,which
wascalledcalledOzero(theLake).
TheMossackFonsecafilesshowthatthecommunalprinciplesthatdefinedOzerocontinuedwithBank
Rossiyaanditsparticipantsmorethanadecadelater.
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:Fwd:AIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalismtherealreasonwhy......followthemoney[ED:DonandRed
Square.....Jeez!WhatNiceRealEstate]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,mmshevchuk@aol.com,"M.Milanytch"<motriam@earthlink.net>,Nadia
<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,NatalieSonetysky
<nataliapalidwor@yahoo.com>,ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu,a.bryttan@rcn.com,akuchtaruk
<akuchtaruk@personainternet.com>,MariaWalchuk<mlwalchuk@gmail.com>,LiliyaBalkova<liliyabalkova@gmail.com>,"L.
Juzeniw"<lesiajuz@verizon.net>,MaryMulyk<marusiadm@yahoo.com>
Beginforwardedmessage:
From:RomaShuhan<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>
Subject:Fw:AIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalismtherealreasonwhy......followthemoney
Date:April3,2016at5:30:34PMEDT
To:RoksolanaandMichaelLuciw<larmud@gmail.com>,MartaBorowyk<kotsuryk@verizon.net>,Marta
Burachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>,MariannaZajac<mariannaz.cya@gmail.com>,GeorgeShuhan
<george.shuhan@hanenergy.com>,ZirkaVoronka<zirkav@yahoo.com>,LJachnycky<ljach11@gmail.com>,
MarikaTomorug<tomorug@comcast.net>,IJadlicky<ijadlicky@verizon.net>,UlanaZinych
<uzinych@comcast.net>
Reply-To:RomaShuhan<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/follow-trumps-money-to-moscow/
Thephrasefollowthemoneyissupposedtohelpexplainhumanbehavior,especiallyinpolitics.Sowhyhas
DonaldTrumpembracedRussianPresidentVladimirPutin?WhyhashedeniedtheevidenceofPutinskilling
ofRussianjournalistsanddissidents?Asavvybusinessman,Trumpiscertainlynotdumb.Theremustbe
somethingelsetoit.
Reportsdatingbackto1987,duringthetimeoftheoldSovietUnion,revealthatTrumphasbeenseeking
businessinRussiaandattemptingtobuildaRussianTrumpTowerinMoscowandperhapsotherRussian
cities.
Atthisparticulartimeinhistory,withPutinscroniesunderfinancialsanctionsbecauseoftheRussianinvasion
ofUkraine,PutinspraiseforTrumpmaysignalanotherattempttogetthecapitalistsandtheirmoneyback
intoRussia.SuchaploydependsonTrumpandothersrehabilitatingPutinbyclaimingthatheisfighting
terrorisminSyria,notbolsteringalong-timeSoviet/Russianclientstate.Thankstotheeffectivenessofthe
RussiaToday(RT)channel,whichsaturatestheU.S.mediamarket,especiallycabletelevision,Putinisindeed
lookinglikeastatesmanontheworldstage.
TrumpsrelationshipwithRussiagoesfarback.In1987,beforethecollapseoftheSovietUnion,hewas
meetingwithSovietofficialsandnegotiatingthebuildingofluxuryhotelsinMoscowandLeningrad.
AstoryatthetimesaidTrumphadmetSovietAmbassadorYuriDubinin,whomentionedhowmuchhis
daughterhadadmiredtheopulentTrumpTowerinNewYorkCity.ThisledtoaninvitationtoTrumptovisit
theUSSR.ThestorysaidDubininwrotealettertoTrump,whohostedameetingwithSovietofficialsinNew
York.
TheinvitationtoMoscowwasissuedbyIntourist,thegiantSovietin-countrytravelorganizationwhich
operatedallthehotelsforforeignersintheSovietUnion.Intouristwascreatedin1929byJosephStalinand
runbyKGBofficials.Intouristhotelsweredesignedforwealthyforeigners,andvirtuallyalltheIntouristguides
wereKGBinformers.Infact,oneaspectoftheirjobswastherecruitmentofforeigners.
However,TrumpexpressedconcernaboutSovietregulationsonjointventures,whichrequirethattheSoviets
holdacontrolling51percentinterestinsuchprojects.Trumpwantedmajoritycontrol.
Thebook,TheGlobalEmergingMarket:StrategicManagementandEconomics,byVladimirKvint,saidthat
asfarbackas2008,theTrumpOrganizationhadregistereditstrademarksinRussiaintheareasofrealestate
developmentandconstruction.Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,saidinaninterviewatthetimethathisfatherwas
lookingatinvestinginRussiaandChina.ThesewereconsideredtopA-listcountries.DonaldJr.istheexecutive
vicepresidentofDevelopment&AcquisitionsattheTrumpOrganization.
TrumpwasnttheonlybusinessmanwhothoughtthenewRussiawouldprovehospitabletoforeigninvestment.
AmericanbusinessmanBillBrowderrananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapital.OnceaPutin
fan,hethoughtprivatepropertyrightsweregoingtobeprotected.However,hewasdeportedin2005,his
assetsstolen,andhislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandkilled.Browdernowsays,TheRussian
regimeisacriminalregime.WeredealingwithanuclearcountryrunbyabunchofMafiacrooks.Andwehave
toknowthat.
CaseslikethatdidntstopCongressin2012fromvotingforPermanentNormalTradeRelations(PNTR)for
Russia.ItpassedtheSenateby92-4andtheHouseby365-43.Despitetheominoustrends,includingPutins
invasionoftheformerSovietRepublicofGeorgiain2008,bigbusinessthoughtalotofmoneycouldstillbe
madeinRussia.In2013,TrumpwashimselfbackinRussiaholdinghisMissUniversepageant.Ihaveplans
tostartbusinessinRussia,TrumptoldtheRussianmedia.IamcurrentlyintalkswithseveralRussian
companiestobuildaskyscraperonthemodelofTrumpTowerinNewYork.
OneofTrumpscontactswasRussianbillionaireArazAgalarovandhiscompanyCrocusGroup.Heowned
CrocusCityHall,wheretheMissUniversefinalswerebeingheld.Heconfirmedthathiscompany,Crocus
Group,hadbeenparticipatinginrealestatetalkswithTrump.LaterthatyearAgalarovwasgiven
anoutstandingcitizenawardbyVladimirPutinataceremonyheldintheKremlin.HehasbeencalledThe
DonaldTrumpofRussia.
RatherthantreatChinaandRussiaasbusinessopportunities,Trumpsaidinhis2011book,TimeToGet
Tough,thatChinaisnotourfriendandisstealingourjobs,technology,andmilitarycapabilities.Itappears
thatabusinessrelationshipwithChinahadsouredsincethetimeDonaldJr.wasconsideringinvestingthere.
TrumpsattacksonChinahavebeenabighitonthecampaigntrail.
AnalystNevinGussacksaysofTrump,Whilehistradeandimmigrationpolicieswouldstrengthenour
strategicandeconomicposture,hisnaivetandignoranceofRussiaandevenCubaisverydisconcerting.It
appearsthatTrumphasflip-floppedonthequestionofwhetherhewouldinvestincommunistCuba.
AsfarasRussiaisconcerned,theresnotalkinthe2011bookofdoingbusinesswithPutin.ButTrumpsaidthat
heoftenspeakshighlyofPutinbecauseofhisintelligenceandno-nonsenseway.Anintelligenceoperative,
PutinwasintheKGBandranoneoftheKGBssuccessoragencies,theFSB.
Putincertainlyhasano-nonsenseapproachtohisperceivedpoliticalenemies.RussianjournalistAnna
Politkovskayawaspoisoned,miraculouslysurvived,butwasthenlatershotdeadonOctober7,2006,which
happenedtobePutinsbirthday.ShehadbeenwarningabouttheKGBsreturntopowerandwasinvestigating
thecircumstancessurroundingthekidnappingandmurderofhundredsintheBeslanschoolmassacrein
southernRussiain2004.Thisevent,likethe1999Moscowapartmentbombings,wasblamedonIslamistsand
gavePutintheopportunity,orpretext,tofurtherconsolidatehispoweroverthemilitary,theintelligence
agencies,andtheeconomy.Heassumedvirtualdictatorialpowers.
ThepoisoningofPolitkovskayawasahallmarkoftheKGBsno-nonsensewayofdoingbusiness.Laterthat
sameyear,dissidentformerFSBofficerAlexanderLitvinenkowasmurderedbypoisoninginLondon,towhich
hehadfled.Hewrotethebook,BlowingUpMoscow:TheSecretPlottoBringBackKGBTerror,abouttheFSBs
roleinthose1999Moscowapartmentbombings.Hehadalsonamedal-Qaedasnumbertwoman,Aymanal-
Zawahiri,ashavingbeentrainedbytheKGB.
WhileTrumps2011bookdenouncedObamaspanderingtotheRussiansinareaslikesabotagingmissile
defenseforourallies,hesaidPutinhadagrandvision,thecreationofaEurasianUniontoreplacethe
USSR.HesaidPutinwantedtocontroloilsuppliestoallofEurope.Thiswasanimportantinsightintohow
Putinsregimeisnotdefensive,norreactingtotheU.S.andNATO,butisinsteadaggressiveinforeignaffairs
andtryingtodominateitsneighbors.However,ratherthanexplainwhattheRussianswereuptowiththis
grandvision,TrumpwentontosayHatsofftotheRussiansingettingtheirwaywithObama.
OnecanfullyunderstandtakingObamatotaskforgivingintotheRussians.ButpraisingtheRussiansfor
takingadvantageofObamareflectsatraitthatisalltoocommonwithmanyconservatives.Theirdisgustwith
Obamahasblindedthemtothenatureofourenemies,whoexploithisforeignpolicytotheiradvantage.They
somehowthinkPutinisactinginAmericasinterestswhenObamaisnot.Thatsludicrous.
Inhislatestbook,CrippledAmerica:HowtoMakeAmericaGreatAgain,TrumpnotesthatPutinis
outmaneuveringObamaintheMiddleEast.TrumpcallsPutinaleader,incontrasttoObama.Butwhatis
Putinleading?TrumpreferstoIranasRussiasbestfriend,withoutexplainingthesignificanceofitsalliance
withRussia.TrumpalsosaysinhisbookthathedoesntunderstandwhyGermanyandothercountries
watchedimpassivelyasPutinmarchedintoUkraine.
AftertheinvasionofUkraineandtheshoot-downoftheMalaysianplanebyRussian-backedterrorists,
Trumpclaimed,IthinkIbecamemuchricherbecauseIcanunderstandpeopleandreadpeopleandPutinis
notfinished.Putinhasgotalongwaytogo.
Again,weareleftthinkingthatTrumpunderstandstheaggressiveintentionsofVladimirPutin.
Yet,whenTrumpwasaskedaboutthenuclearbalancewithRussiaduringthemostrecentRepublican
presidentialdebate,hedisplayedignoranceofthedecayingnatureoftheU.S.nucleartriad,whichconstitutes
ourabilitytodeterandsurviveaRussiannuclearfirststrike.
Meanwhile,PutinhasjustpresidedoveraceremonyhonoringtheKGBssuccessoragencies,andtheRussia
Today(RT)propagandachannelhasannouncedthegrandopeningofaculturalcenterdedicatedtomass
murdererJosephStalin.
ItlookslikePutinhasoutmaneuveredObamaandTrump.ItisanopeningforTrumpsopponents,especially
SenatorsTedCruz(R-TX)andMarcoRubio(R-FL).Butdotheyhavethecouragetofollowthemoneyand
holdTrumpaccountablefordoingbusinesswithacriminalregimethatthreatensthesurvivaloftheUnited
States?AttheendofthismoneytrailtheymayfindanexplanationofwhyTrumpissoreluctanttoholdPutin
responsibleforhiscrimes.
Abouttheauthor
CliffKincaid
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalismandcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org.Viewthe
completearchivesfromCliffKincaid.
From:TrevorLoudon<trevor.newzeal@gmail.com>
Date:Sun,Apr3,2016at1:28AM
Subject:Re:[AfterBounceBack.....Resent][AQUICKBITOFAVERYLATEFRINITEREAD][JDDDIII]Fwd:
"LUHANSKSEPARATISTrevealshowNadiyaSAVCHENKOfellintorebelhands........[AK/AC/Politico:TimeforUkraineto
PressResetButton]........[VRT]OilTaxesandBigBigProblemsfortheRUEconomy[ED:TLonTrumpPatrol:"trumps-
russia-adviser-carter-page-globalist-entrepreneur-with-ties-to-russian-intelligence-dominated-company"]
HiWalter.Foryourcomment.
http://www.trevorloudon.com/2016/03/trumps-russia-adviser-carter-page-globalist-entrepreneur-with-ties-to-russian-intelligence-
dominated-company/
Regards
Trevor
Senttime: 03/31/201609:39:30AM
FW:[ITEMSOFNOTE---3-31MORN/EST][OD]Pres.Poroshenko'sspeechfromlastnightattheUSCVCCongressionalAuditorium.....[RH]
Subject:
ThankyouIsrael:IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimea.........[MB]PentagonPlanstoDeployTroopsAlongRUBo...
Sent:Thursday,March31,20168:55AM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE---3-31MORN/EST][OD]Pres.Poroshenko'sspeechfromlastnightattheUSCVCCongressional
Auditorium.....[RH]ThankyouIsrael:IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimea.........[MB]PentagonPlanstoDeployTroopsAlong
RUBo...
Date:Thu,Mar31,2016at11:51AM
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE---3-31MORN/EST][OD]Pres.Poroshenko'sspeechfromlastnightattheUSCVC
CongressionalAuditorium.....[RH]ThankyouIsrael:IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimea.........[MB]PentagonPlansto
DeployTroopsAlongRUBorderUStoincreasemilitarypresenceineasternEurope
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:Poroshenkospeech,NYT,WAJ
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
PoroshenkospeechfromlastnightattheUSCapitolsVisitorsCenterCongressionalAuditorium(doesntincludeQ
andAafterwards):
PresidentofUkraine/PetroPoroshenko
StatementbythePresidentofUkraineattheForumUkrainesBattleforFreedomContinues
http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vistup-prezidenta-ukrayini-na-forumi-bitva-ukrayini-za-svobo-36927
31March2016-07:17
DearmembersoftheWorldAffairsCouncilsofAmerica,
Distinguishedaudience,
YourExcellency,
Ladiesandgentlemen,
ItisapleasureformetobeheretonightandseesomanyfriendsofUkraine.
ThisisespeciallyimportantformetobeintheCongressbuilding.
IhadanhonortohaveaspeechintheCongressandSenateonSeptember18,2014.Thatwasaneventforthewholeofmylife.
Andthatwasaveryimportantsymbolofsupport,whichwasdemonstratedintheU.S.Congressformycountryandforthe
peopleofUkraine.Thankyouverymuchindeedforthat.
Letmestartwithwordsofgratitude.
IamgratefultotheUnitedStatesGovernmentforstandingbyUkraine'ssideoverlasttwoyearsthehardesttwoyearsinthe
historyofmycountry.
IamgratefultotheUkrainianAmericancommunitywhichhasbeensupportingUkrainesoactivelyinsomanyways.
IamgratefultoallpeopleofgoodwillwhostoodwithUkraineandextendedtheirfinancial,in-kindandmoralsupport.This
supportisvitallyimportantformeandforthepeopleofUkraine.
Dearfriends,
SinceI'vevisitedAmericalasttime,UkrainehaseffectivelystoppedtheRussianoffensive.
Thepricewehavepaidisstriking.
Almost10,000peoplehavedied.Over2,700ofthemareUkrainianservicemenkilledbyfireofcombinedRussian-militantforces.
ThisnumberexceedstheUSmilitarylossesinAfghanistanforthelast15years.
1.75millionIDPslosttheirhomesinDonetskandLuhanskregionsandmovedtootherregionsofUkraine.
AndI,asPresident,theUkrainianGovernment,Ukrainianlocalauthoritiesshouldfindoutshelter,houses,jobs,educationforthem
andtheirchildren.Organizeeverything.
Butwearehavingverystrongexpectationsandhopesthatintheverynearfuture1.75millionUkrainianswillhaveanopportunity
tocomebacktotheirnativelandinDonetskandLuhanskregions.
7%ofUkrainianterritoryisunderoccupation.
20%ofUkrainianeconomyandindustrialoutputisseizedordestroyed.
19monthsafterweinitiatedtheMinskprocess,Istillreceivereportsaboutlossesandshellingofourpositionsinthefrontlineevery
singleday.
EverymorningIhaveareportfromChiefoftheGeneralStaff,GeneraloftheUkrainianArmyMuzhenko.Unfortunately,every
daywehavefrom50to100shellingperday.
Russiacontinuessendingtroops,heavyweaponsandammunitionintoUkraineafewtimesaweek.OnlysinceJanuary1,2016,
RussiantrainsandtrucksfullofsupplieshaveillegallycrossedtheuncontrolledpartoftheUkrainian-Russianborderover80times.
RussiasproxiesinDonbasstillheavilyimpedetheOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoaccessallareasundertheircontroland
verifytheceasefireandwithdrawalofweapons.
TheydonotallowthemtoaccesstheuncontrolledpartoftheUkrainian-Russianborderjusttocheckandinformindependently
thewholeworldaboutwhatisgoingonintheoccupiedterritory.
Thissituationisnotconducivetoholdinglocalelectionsinmilitant-controlledareasofDonbaswhichareofkeyimportancefor
furtherprogressinthesettlement.
Russiakeepsusinganescalationcardwheneveritwantstopushforapreferredscenario.
ItkeepssupportingmilitantsinDonbasasitwantstohaveapermanentleverageonUkraine.
Russiaalsouseshumanlivesasatradingchip.
Aftermonthsofnegotiations,westillcannotgetover120UkrainiansfromcaptivityinDonbas.ICRCisbannedtovisitthemas
wellastosearchabout800missingpersons.
TheKremlinhasgoneevenfurther.Atleast11UkrainiancitizenshavebecomepoliticalprisonersinRussia.Farcetrials,unjust
verdictsandillegaldetentionofHeroofUkraine,memberoftheUkrainianParliament,PACEmemberNadiyaSavchenkowhohas
stayedthereforalmosttwoyearsfordoingnothingbutdefendingtheUkrainianlandasaUkrainianofficer.Twoyears.AndOleg
Sentsov,andKolchenko,andmanyothersarejustappalling.
Someofthem,includingNadiyaSavchenko,areinacriticalhealthcondition.ButthisfactorhasnomeaningforMoscowwhich
stilldoesnotallowUkrainiandoctorstovisitNadiyaforanindependentinspection,despitepromisesofRussianForeignMinister
Mr.Lavrov.ItrejectsaccessforGermandoctorsanddoctorsoftheICRC.
WehaveapprovedthesanctionslistagainstindividualswhohadpartakeninthefarcetrialsagainstUkrainianpoliticalprisonersin
Russia.SocalledSavchenko-Sentsovlist.VerysimilartotheMagnitskyList.WeexpectthatourUSandEuropeanpartnersjoin
thisinitiative.
Ladiesandgentlemen,
UkraineremainscommittedtotheimplementationoftheMinskagreementsintheirentirety.Thisistheonlyoptionforthepeaceful
settlementonthetablenow.
WearekeentounlockthepoliticalprocessandholdthelocalelectionsinDonbas.
However,theseelectionsarepossibleonly:
IfRussiaimplementssecurityprovisionsoftheMinskarrangementsanddoesnotmanipulatewiththephraseholdinglocal
electionsinlinewiththeUkrainianlegislationandinternationalstandards.Freeandfairelectionsmeansthatelectionsshouldbe
freeandelectionsshouldbefair.WecannotacceptlegitimizingtheoccupationofDonbasthroughfarceelectionsorRussian
understandingoffreeandfairelections,whichhasnothingtodowithdemocraticstandards.WehaveexactcriteriaoftheOSCE
thatdefinefreeandfairelections.Andtheseelectionsshouldbeacceptedbythewholeworld.
IftheinternationalcommunitybrokersdeploysanenhancedOSCEpolicemissioninDonbastoensuresecuritybefore,
duringandaftertheelections.CanyouimagineanybodymakingelectioncampaignwhenwehavethousandsofRussiantroopson
thestreet.Andnobodyhasaccesstoindependentmediabecauseitsimplydoesn'texistonthisterritory,justasindependent
electionscommission.And1.75millionUkrainianslivingtherehavenorighttovote.WewillneveracceptthisRussianstandardof
democracy.
IfwestartworkingtowardseventualrestorationofUkrainescontrolovertheuncontrolledpartoftheUkrainian-Russian
border.Russiahasdeliveredmorethan750tanks,morethan1500artillerysystems,echelonsofammunitiontoaverysmall
territory.Whatfor?Everyoneunderstandsthat.Ofcourse,thisdoesn'tincreasesecurityoftheregion.
Therecipeforthesettlementisrathersimpleasthat.WhatisnotsimpleischangingRussiasattitudeandmakingitleaveUkraine
alone.
Dearfriends,
Therearesystemicandlarge-scaleviolationsofhumanrightsinCrimea.Internationalorganizationssignalthesefactsintheir
reports.
Theoccupationregimetargetseveryonewhoshowsdissent,especiallyUkrainiansandCrimeanTatarswhosupportsovereignty,
independenceandterritorialintegrityofUkraine.
TheRussianoccupationregimehaslaunchedover130criminalcasesagainstCrimeanTatars,includingacasetobantheirmain
organizationMejlis.
21CrimeanTatarshavebeenkidnapped,3founddead,9arestillmissing.
Over20,000UkrainiansandCrimeanTatarswereforcedtoleavethepeninsula.
RussiaheavilymilitarizesCrimea.Itseekstodeploynuclearweaponsthere,too.
ThisisRussia'sunderstandingofsecurityintheregion.
Ispeakaboutthisforaveryclearreason.
IcameheretoparticipateintheNuclearSecuritySummit.
IhaveanhonortobePresidentofthestatewhichmadeauniquecontributiontothenuclearsecurityintheworld.
In1994,Ukraineabandonedthethirdlargestnuclearweaponsarsenal.
AtthefirstNuclearSecuritySummitin2010undertheleadershipofPresidentObama,werefusedfromastockpileofhighly
enricheduraniumandhaveimplementedourpledgesofar.
Asoftoday,UkraineremainsamongthekeycontributorstosuccessoftheObamaNuclearSecurityinitiative.
AndIamproudofthat.
Whatdidwegetinresponse?
Wegotsecurityassurancesunderthe1994BudapestMemorandumaboutsovereignty,territorialintegrityandindependenceofmy
country.Veryclear.Giveupnuclearweaponsandreceivesecurityguarantee.Soundsgood.Butwhathasitturnedtobeinreality?
RussiasimplydefieditsassurancestoUkraineandcommittedadirectarmedaggressionagainstmystate.
TheUkrainianpatriotsarelosingtheirlivesdefendingthesamevaluesthataredeartoAmericaandEurope.
Weareofoneblood,onemindandonevalues.Democraticvalues.
We,Ukrainians,areentitledtocallupontheWesternguarantorsundertheMemorandumtotakeallpossibleeffortstorestore
internationaljusticeandorder,tohelpusinourbattleforsurvivalandindependent,democraticandEuropeanfuture.
IbelievethatthereisarealchanceforPresidentObamatomarkhispresidentialtermwithsettlementoftheconflictinDonbas.
Ladiesandgentlemen,
Thesearedifficulttimes.NotonlyforUkrainebutforallnations.
Themankindfacesmanyproblemsterrorism,growingradicalismandxenophobia,migration,climatechange.
Theworldistemptedtochoosepragmatismovervalues,self-isolationismovercourage,andappeasementoverpeace.
ManythinkthatitisjustamatteroftimethatthedustsettlesinUkraineandthingswillgetbacktooldnormallifeinEurope.
Idontthinkitsgoingtohappen.Theoldnormalisover.
RecognizeitornotbuttheWesthasaproblemalargenuclearstatewithinferioritycomplex,withhatefulattitudeandwithtotal
disregardforthecommonvalues,agreedprinciplesandnorms.
Andthisproblemwillnotgoawaybyitself.
RussiaisnotjustrejectingEurope.
ItistryingtobuildanalternativeEuropebasedonalternativevalues.
Tyrannyinsteadofdemocracy.Intoleranceinsteadofrespect.Azero-sumgameinsteadofwin-win.
AsRussiatearsUkraineapartphysically,ittearsEuropeapartpolitically.
ItdoesitsbesttopromoteEuroscepticismandnurtureanti-EUpartiesthroughoutthecontinentineverysingleEuropeanmember-
statejusttomakeEuropeweaker,disintegratedandbringcrisistoEurope.
Russia-inspiredisolationismbecomesafactorintheworldwithouttheworldnoticingit.
ItisnotaboutRussiaandtheWestbeingunclearabouttheirintentionsinEurope.
ItisaboutRussiaandtheWesthavingoppositeintentionsforEurope.
TheWestwantsacircleoftrust.Russiawantsacircleofdomination.
ItwasnotahumiliationfromtheWestthatallegedlyputRussiaondefenselines.
ItwasthelackoffearintheWestthatwasRussiasbiggesthumiliation.
AndMoscowistryingtogetacompensationforit.
YesterdayinTransnistriaandGeorgia.TodayinUkraineandSyria.Whoseturnwillbenext?WherecanRussiantroops
appear?
Developmentofthesituationdemonstratesacompletecrisisofthepost-warsecuritysystem.Italsodemonstratesthatthereareno
redlinesforRussia.Letusbepreparedforthat.Letusbeeffectiveinthedefenseofourcountries,ourvaluesandourworld.
Itistimetofacethisrealityandfindproperresponsestothissituation.
Dearfriends,
Weshouldrealizethattheworldwillnotbethesameagain.
Whatitwillbelikedependsonanumberoffactors.
ThemostimportantoneissuccessofUkraine.WecannotgiveanychancetoRussiathatwelosethisbattle.Notonlyintheeastof
mycountry,notonlyinCrimea.
Whatshallwedotosecurethissuccess?
First,weshallestablishpeaceinUkraine.
Ukrainewantsitbecausethatisitschancetosurvive.
TheWestwantsitbecauseitcannotfeelcomfortablewhileaneighborthatsharesthesamevaluesisbleedingforchoosingthem.
Thisisonlyonereason-choiceofUkrainianpeople,Europeanchoice.
AndRussiacanbeforcedintoit.Bywhatmechanism?
WearenotwaitingNATOtroopsinUkraine.Myarmydefendsmycountryveryeffectively.
WehaveaneffectivemechanismtomotivateRussiatositatthetableofnegotiations.Andthenameofthismechanismissanctions.
Itisworkingdespitenegativepredictionsofsceptics.AndRussiapayshugepricefornotsittingatthetableofnegotiations.
TheKremlinthinksthatitisreachingitsgoalsinUkraine,atUkrainescost.
DearlyforUkraine,cheaplyfortheWest.
IftheWestliftssanctions,theKremlinswishwillcometrue:Ukrainianbloodwillcostnothing.KillingUkrainianswillgowithout
anypunishment.Thatisthequestionofvalues.
CananyoneintheWestacceptthis?Iamanoptimist.Iamabsolutelysure,thisisnotpossible.
SanctionsaretheonlylineinthesandthattheWestdrewafter2014.
Itistheonlylinebetweengoodandevildrawninthecontextofthiswar.
Andifthereisnolineanymorethanwhatsthedifferencebetweengoodandevil?
Dowereallywantaworlddevoidofpoliticalboundaries?
Dowewantaworldwhereonecangrabothernationsland,killthousandsandstayunpunished?
Therefore,withoutsustainablepeaceinDonbassanctionsmuststayinplace.
WithoutrestoringUkrainessovereigntyoverCrimeasanctionsmuststayinplace.
WithoutanewRussianattitudesanctionsmuststayinplace.
Anythinglesswouldbeacompromiseatthecostofvaluesandjustice.
Therightsignalisthatifyoupursueanaggressivepolicy,noonewilldealwithyou.
Andiftheperpetratorkeepskillingandstirringinstabilityitdoesnotmeanthesanctionsdonotworkandmustbelifted.
Itmeanstheymustbestrengthened.
Weshouldnotrepeatthemistakeof2008whentheWestdecidedthatRussiahadgotwhatitwantedandwouldbecomequiet
now.
ThethingabouttodaysRussiais:itseeksdomination,notcompromise.
Theydontbelieveinwin-win.
TheywantUkrainedownandtheWestout.
Thisistheonlywayhowtheythinktheygoup.
YourworstfearsaretheirplanA.
Second,weshallensuresustainabletransformationofUkraine.
ThatsprimarilyUkrainesresponsibility.Noquestionaboutthat.
Aswehavebeendefendingourcountrylasttwoyearswehavebeenalsoimplementingabroadreformpackage.Alothasbeen
donesofar.
Firstofall,asPresidentandSupremeCommander-in-Chief,Icanassureyouthatwehavebuiltanabsolutelynewandeffective
Ukrainianarmyinthelast19months.
Icantellyouaveryimportantstory.WhenIwaselectedPresidentandhadacontactwithourpartnersaskingaboutmilitary
supportformyArmedForces,theanswerwas"no".BecauseyourarmyiscorruptiveandisfilledwithFSBagents.Insuchashort
periodoftime,wedemonstratedthatanew,transparent,effective,verystrongandpatrioticarmycanstopRussianaggressionand
release2/3oftheoccupiedDonbasterritories.
Earlier,Ukrainianarmyhada7%levelofsupportfromtheUkrainianpeople.Today,ithasalmost80%.Thisisasymbolof
changesinmycountry.
AndRussianpropagandadistributescompletelydifferentmessagesthroughouttheworld,whichisapartofhybridwaragainst
Ukraine.
Wehavemadethefirstbutcriticalblowagainstcorruption.Thecapitalrenovationoftheanticorruptioninstitutionalsystemhas
beenfinalized.Fromnowonourprioritygoalistomakeitfunctionalandoperational.Ibelievethatappointmentofnewhighly
professional,responsible,well-trustedProsecutorGeneralwilltriggeranewpageinanticorruptionpolicyofUkraine.
Wehavecompletelyrebuiltthesystem.TheSpecialAnti-CorruptionProsecutorwhowasappointedinanabsolutelytransparent
competitionhasafullleveloftrustintheUkrainiansociety.Histeamhaspowertofightagainstcorruptionandheiscompletely
independent.
Welaunchedseveralcriminalcasesagainstministers,governors,MPs.Nobodyhasanumbrellaagainstinvestigationoncorruption
charges.
WecreatedtheSpecialAnti-CorruptionElectronicDeclaration.Everychiefofthepolice,governor,minister,MPshouldexplain
publiclyandtransparentlyhowdidhegethisvilla,plane,expensivecars.Weneverhaditbeforeandwelaunchedittwoweeks
ago.AndIamsureitwillwork.
Lastweek,theChiefoftheSpecialAgencyforPreventingCorruptionwaselected.
Wehavemanagedtostabilizeeconomicandfinancialsituation.
Exactlyoneyearago,ourgoldencurrencyreservewaszero.Today,afterthemostcriticalyearinourhistory,whenwespent5%
GDPfornationalsecurityanddefense,whenwehadadisastroussituationwithpricesonthemainproductsofUkrainianexports,
wenowhave13billioninthegoldencurrencyreserve.
Duringthewar,wereducedthebudgetdeficitfrom12%to3%.
WehadenergymonopolistNJSCNaftogazofUkrainewith130billiondeficitsubsidizedfromthestate.Thisyear,afterenergy
reform,wehaveazerodeficit.Inoneyear!Forthefirsttimein25yearsofourhistory.
Wehaveimprovedpublicspending.
Wehavecleanedupourbanksystemtomakeitmoreresilient.
Wehavemadeagoodprogressinderegulationthatsignificantlyeasedtheregistrationofbusiness.
Wehavestreamlinedthetaxsystem.
WehavetakenhardbutimportantdecisionsintheenergysectorwhichleadtoUkrainesenergyindependence.
AfterdecadesofkeepingUkraineonthegasneedlenowRussiaisknockingonourdooraskingtobuysomegas.Thatiswhat
wearelookingfor.Becausegasandenergycorruptionwerefeedingthepreviousgovernment.Notanymore.Andwedoitinvery
difficultconditions.
WehavelaunchedanewpolicewhichisdeemedtobecomeapillaroftrustfortheUkrainiansociety.Ourinspirationwasdrawn
fromtheUSpolice.AndIamproudthatpolicemenfromCaliforniabecameinstructorsofournewpolicemen.
Earlier,socialtrustinoldmilitiawaslessthan5%.Today,ithasraisedupto70%inlessthanayear.
Earlier,peopleavoidedthecontactandnowtheyfindprotectionandtransparency.Thisisaveryimportantsymbolofthenew
country.
Bytheway,wehaveanextremelysuccessfulcooperationwiththeArmedForces.Severaltimesayear,IvisittheYavorivtraining
center,whichconductsjointexerciseswithAmerican,Canadian,British,Europeansoldiers.Wedidn'thaveitbefore.Thisisa
demonstrationoftrustbetweenourcountries.
Wehavesteppedupontothepublicservicereformandintroducede-government.
Alotisstilltobedone.
AndIwilldomyutmost.Thedriveforreformsisthere.
Onemayconsiderthelatestgovernmentalcrisisachallenge.ButIconsideritachance.Wehavetocomeoutofitmoreresilientto
internalandexternalshocks.
Iexpectthatinseveralhours,anewcoalitionintheUkrainianParliamentwillappearandproposeanewcandidateforPrime
Minister.Iamabsolutelysurethatthesolutiontotheparliamentarycrisisisalreadyveryclose.Mostprobably,itwillbeachieved
thisweek.
ThatswhyIinsistonclearprinciplesfortheformationofanewgovernmentandacoalitionintheparliament.Nolessimportantis
aclearprogramforthegovernmentbasedonIMFcommitments,AssociationAgreementwiththeEU,anti-corruptionfightandthe
Minskagreementsimplementation.
So,wedontgiveup,despitethepressurewefaceeverysingleday,onexternalandinternalfronts.BecausethisisexactlyPutin's
scenario.Understandingthatnobodysupportshim,hedoesn'thaveanyopportunityfortheoffensiveoperationintheeastof
Ukraine.Heopensanewfront,internalfrontinanattempttodestabilizeUkraine.AndIinsistthatwemustgivehimnochances.
Atthesametime,itiscriticalthattheWestdoesnotgiveuponUkraine,either.Thisisthird.
RussiaswaragainstUkrainehasproventhatweaknessprovokestheaggressionwhileastrongcountrycandeterabully.
Itisthereforevitalthatourpartnershelpusbecomestronginalltermspolitically,economicallyandmilitarily.
AsIsaidbefore,wehavebeenabletostoptheRussianoffensiveontheground.Wegotalotofsupportfromourpartners.
Yet,Icouldneverexplainonethingtomyselfandtomycompatriotsreluctanceoftheinternationalcommunitytosupply
weaponstothelegitimateUkrainiangovernmentandregularUkrainianArmywhichholdsthelineagainsttheattackonthe
internationalorder.
Ithinkitistimetorevisethisattitude.
EveryeffortappliedtoprotectUkraineisaninvestmentintolong-termsecurityoftheWestandsustainabilityofdemocraticvalues.
Ladiesandgentlemen,
Inthetimesofglobalweakness,thereisathingthatcountsmorethananythingelseleadership.
Itisaprivilegeandaheavyburden.
Noteveryonewantsit.Noteveryonedeservesit.
Therearesomanyreasonsnottocarryit:indifference,fatigue,self-doubt
Andthereisonlyonereasontocarryit:youhaveitinyourblood.
Inthesetimesofdoubt,IurgeAmericatobestrongandbelieveinitselfjustlikepeopleofgoodwillworldwidekeepbelievingin
America.
Dontletpragmatismmakeyouforgetaboutvalues,withfreedombeingatthetopofthem.
DontletAmericabecomesmall-minded.
UkrainehighlyappreciatesabondwiththeUnitedStates.
TheAmericanleadershiphasbeenveryimportantforprogressivereformsinUkraine.
TheUSsupporthasbeencriticalforsuccessfulresistancetotheRussianaggression.
ItishightimetoboostUkraine-USbilateraldialogueinformandcontent.
Itisalsotimetoupgradeourstrategicallianceandtochannelourintensecooperationindefenseandsecurityintoacomprehensive
bilateralsecurityagreement.
Ibelievethatthiswouldbetobenefitofall.
Dearfriends,
Ukrainesfightisafightforfreedom.Andthisfightcontinues.
Peoplediesothatfreedomdoesnt.
IknowthatUkrainehasatimingproblem.
Inadisillusionedworld,shechosenotthebesttimetobecomefree.
But,astheBiblesays,TheSpiritbreatheswherehewill.
IntodaysworldthespiritoffreedombreathesinUkraine.
Pleasesupportit!
Thankyou.
From:<radhumennyj@aol.com>
Subject:Fwd:thankyouIsrael[IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimeaexpert]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
Subject:thankyouIsrael
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/334346.html
16:3230.03.2016
IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimeaexpert

IsraeldoesnotrecommenddoingbusinessinoccupiedCrimea,notwithstandingthefactthatIsraelisnottrying
stirupthewarissue,thisisactuallyafullblockadefrompointofIsraelibusiness'view,theexpertinUkrainian-
IsraelirelationsandIsraelieditor-in-chiefoftheForumDailynewspaper(theUnitedStates),ShimonBriman,
hassaid.
"Inthegeneral,theofficialpositionofIsraelisneutral,butitmainlyaimsatdevelopingUkraineinpractice,"he
saidatapressconferenceinKyivonTuesday.
HesaidthatIsraelhasnotrecognizedtheannexationofCrimea,butTel-Avivsaidthatthisisnottheirconflict.
IsraelistryingtohavefriendlyrelationsbothwithUkraineandRussia.Israel'ssuspensionofunmannedaerial
vehicles(UAVs)suppliestoRussiaandthenon-deliveryofUAVstoUkraineisevidenceofthis.
IsraelclosedtheHonoraryConsulateinCrimeaassoonastheirconsulbackedtheoccupation.Thecountry
openedtheHonoraryConsulateinLvivinstead.
"ThiswasaparticularsignalforMoscow,"Brimansaid.
IsraeliAmbassadortoUkraineEliavBelotserkovskywarnedIsraelibusinessmenthatIsraeldoesnot
recommenddoingbusinessinoccupiedCrimeaandlargeIsraeliinsurancecompaniesstoppedinsuringdealsin
thepeninsula.
ThecountryprovidesallkindsofassistancetoUkraine.Medicalassistance,medicalofficerandarmy
psychologisttrainingprogramsarebeingimplemented.
AlargeprogramtointroduceIsraelireclamationandirrigationsolutionsinthesouthernregionsofUkraine
(Kherson,MykolaivandZaporizhiaregion)hasbeenstarted:35,000Ukrainianfarmerswillhaveaccessto
advancedIsraelisolutionswithsupportoftheCanadiangovernment.
"ThisisdirectlylinkedtoCrimea.ItwillshowthatrecognizedUkrainianterritoriesaredeveloping,whilethe
occupiedterritoriesremainamess,"thejournalistsaid.
AmovementtosupportUkrainehasalsoappearedinIsrael-IsraeliFriendsofUkrainecollectedtonnesof
food,medicinesandotherassistancetoUkraine.
"IsawhowgirlsinTel-AvivsewedcamouflagescreensfortheUkrainianmilitary,"hesaid.
AlargescandalinIsraeleruptedoverthevisitofKnessetmemberYakovMargitoCrimea.TheKnesset
speakerfinallyapologizedforthistrip.Ukraine'sProsecutorGeneral'sOfficeopenedacriminalcaseagainst
Margi.
Subject:InAFlashbackToColdWarDays,PentagonAnnouncesPlanToDeployTroopsAlongRussianBorder
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,mmshevchuk@aol.com
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pentagon-troops-russia-nato_us_56fcd667e4b0a06d5804d177
InAFlashbackToColdWarDays,Pentagon
AnnouncesPlanToDeployTroopsAlongRussian
Border
Credit:IntsKalnins/Reuters
AU.S.soldiersitsinhisHumveeduringtheNATOForceIntegrationUnitinaugurationeventinVilnius,
LithuaniaonSeptember3,2015.Thisweek,thePentagonannouncedplanstobeefupU.S.militarypresencein
EasternEurope.
AstensionscontinuetoescalatebetweenRussiaandtheWest,thePentagonhasannouncedplanstodeployU.S.
troops,armedwithmodernequipmentandheavyartillery,fulltimealongNATOseasternborders.
Theso-calledEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,willbethefirstsuchdeploymentsincetheColdWarended,The
WallStreetJournalreported.Itspurpose:TodeterRussianaggressionwhileservingtoreassureWesternalliesof
U.S.commitmenttotheregion.
GeneralPhilipBreedlove,thetopU.S.commanderinEurope,announcedtheplanonWednesday,callingitastrong
andbalancedapproachtoreassuringourNATOAlliesandpartnersinthewakeofanaggressiveRussiainEastern
Europeandelsewhere.
Ouralliesandpartnerswillseemorecapability,hesaidinastatement.Theywillseeamorefrequentpresenceof
anarmoredbrigadewithmoremodernizedequipmentintheircountries.
.@US_EUCOMannouncesEuropeanReassuranceInitiativeimplementation
planhttp://go.usa.gov/csbyA#StrongEurope
U.S.ArmyEurope(@USArmyEurope)6:33AM-30Mar2016
ThenewproposalwouldputanadditionalU.S.armoredbrigadeinEurope,specificallyalongNATOseastern
flank.Thebrigade,whichtypicallycomprisesabout4,200soldiersandhundredsofheavyvehicles,tanksandother
equipment,willrotateinonacontinualbasis,andwillbedividedacrosssixcountries:Lithuania,Estonia,Latvia,
Poland,RomaniaandBulgaria.
Lt.Gen.BenHodges,thecommanderofU.S.ArmyEurope,saidtheproposalwouldcreateaconstantpresenceof
U.S.forcesalongNATOseasternborder.
TherewillbeAmericanequipmentandpeopleineachofthesecountries,HodgestoldtheJournal.Wewillhave
theflexibilitytoconvergetheentirebrigadeforexercisesandthatisanimportantpartofthedeterrence,toshowa
warfightingcapability.
Google
MapsThePentagonplanstohaveU.S.troopscontinuallystationedalongNATOsEasternflank.
SlatedtostartinFebruary2017,theplanwillincreasethenumberofU.S.combatbrigadesinEuropetothree.
Currently,thereareapproximately62,000U.S.militaryforces,includingareported25,000Armysoldiers,
permanentlybasedinthecontinent.
AccordingtoPentagonspokeswomanLauraSeal,theproposalwillalsoallowfortheU.S.tobringinmore
advancedequipmenttoeasternEurope.
ThiswillbethemostmodernizedequipmenttheArmyhastooffer,andwill,overthenextyear,replacetheless
moderntrainingequipmentweputinEuropeoverthelastfewyears,SealtoldAP.
Thenewgearwillreportedlyinclude250tanks,BradleyFightingVehicles,Paladinself-propelledhowitzersandmore
than1,700additionalwheeledvehicles.
PentagonreadiesmorerobustU.S.militarypresenceinEasternEuropehttp://on.wsj.com/21SWFzU
WallStreetJournal(@WSJ)5:00AM-30Mar2016
AccordingtoMashable,thePentagonrequested$3.4billioninFebruaryfortheinitiative,aftertheWhiteHousegave
thego-ahead.Congress,however,stillmustapprovetherequest.

WhatdoestheEuropeanReassuranceInitiative(ERI)implementationplanmeanfor
Europe?http://goo.gl/3zEq8k
USMissiontoNATO(@USNATO)8:31AM-30Mar2016
RelationsbetweentheKremlinandtheWesthavebeenparticularlystrainedsinceRussiasannexationoftheCrimean
Peninsulain2014,anditssubsequentmilitaryactionsinUkraine.Justthisweek,themountingtensionwashighlighted
againwhenRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsaidhewouldboycotttheNuclearSecuritySummitinWashington.
RussiasdecisiontocertainlynotparticipateatahighlevelwebelieveisamissedopportunityforRussiaaboveall,
BenRhodes,deputynationalsecurityadvisertotheWhiteHouseNationalSecurityCouncil,toldreporterson
Tuesday.Frankly,alltheyredoingisisolatingthemselves.
Subject:UStoincreasemilitarypresenceineasternEurope-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35930130
UStoincreasemilitarypresenceineasternEurope
APThe
movewillenablemoremilitaryexercises,likethisoneinPoland
TheUSisboostingitstrooppresenceineasternEuropeinresponsetoan"aggressiveRussia",the
militarysays.
Anextraarmouredbrigadeisbeingdeployed,meaningatotalofthreewillbethereonacontinuousbasis.
TheBBC'sdiplomaticcorrespondentsaysitisthemostsignificantUSreinforcementofNatosincetensionsflared
overRussianactioninUkraine.
LastmonththePentagonannouncedplanstoquadrupleitsbudgetforEuropeandefencein2017.
TheadditionalpresencewillincreaseUSabilitytoconductmilitaryexercisesintheregion.
Theplandemonstrates"ourstrongandbalancedapproachtoreassuringourNatoalliesandpartnersinthewakeof
anaggressiveRussiaineasternEuropeandelsewhere",saidGenPhilipBreedlove,theseniorUScommanderin
Europe.
"Ouralliesandpartnerswillseemorecapability.Theywillseeamorefrequentpresenceofanarmouredbrigadewith
moremodernisedequipmentintheircountries,"headded.
'Division'sworthofstuff'
Eachbrigadewillrotatethroughtheregionforninemonthsbeforebeingreplaced.
Thereareabout4,200soldiersinabrigade,bringingwiththemmilitaryvehiclesandotherequipment.
"Therewillbeadivision'sworthofstufftofightifsomethinghappens,"DeputySecretaryofDefenceRobert
WorktoldtheWallStreetJournal.
EPASome
EasternEuropeancountrieshavebeenalarmedbyRussianactioninUkraine
RelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWesthaveplummetedsinceRussiaannexedtheUkrainianpeninsulaofCrimeain
March2014.
TheinterventionsparkedfearsthatRussiawasconsideringotherincursionsintoneighbouringcountries.
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondtoldReutersonWednesdaythesituationinUkrainehad"gonebackwards
overthelastfewmonths,withmoreandmoreviolationsoftheceasefire".
RussiahasaccusedNatoofusingthesituationinUkraineasanexcusetomoveclosertoRussianborders.
"StoriesarebeingspreadthatRussiawillsenditstanksintotheBalticstates,intoSofiaorintoBudapest.No-one
intendstodothat,"Russia'sDeputyDefenceMinisterAnatolyAntonovtoldGermanpublicbroadcasterDeutsche
Welle.
SomeanalystssuggestedtheUSmilitarycouldbeplanningforthepost-Obamaera.
ThefrontrunnertobetheRepublicannomineeforthepresidentialelection,DonaldTrump,hasstronglyattackedthe
economiccostofUSforeignpolicy.
EUCOM-theUSEuropeanCommand-aimstosupport"enduringstabilityandpeace"
onthecontinent
62,000
USservicepersonnelarepermanentlybasedinEurope
25,000ofthesearearmysoldiers
4,200moreundernewplan
21USbasesacrossEurope
AP,EUCOM
AFP
Senttime: 03/31/201609:39:30AM
FW:[ITEMSOFNOTE---3-31MORN/EST][OD]Pres.Poroshenko'sspeechfromlastnightattheUSCVCCongressionalAuditorium.....[RH]
Subject:
ThankyouIsrael:IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimea.........[MB]PentagonPlanstoDeployTroopsAlongRUBo...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE---3-31MORN/EST][OD]Pres.Poroshenko'sspeechfromlastnightattheUSCVCCongressional
Auditorium.....[RH]ThankyouIsrael:IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimea.........[MB]PentagonPlanstoDeployTroopsAlong
RUBo...
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE---3-31MORN/EST][OD]Pres.Poroshenko'sspeechfromlastnightattheUSCVC
CongressionalAuditorium.....[RH]ThankyouIsrael:IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimea.........[MB]PentagonPlansto
DeployTroopsAlongRUBorderUStoincreasemilitarypresenceineasternEurope
Subject:Ukraine:Poroshenkospeech,NYT,WAJ
PoroshenkospeechfromlastnightattheUSCapitolsVisitorsCenterCongressionalAuditorium(doesntincludeQ
andAafterwards):
PresidentofUkraine/PetroPoroshenko
StatementbythePresidentofUkraineattheForumUkrainesBattleforFreedomContinues
http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vistup-prezidenta-ukrayini-na-forumi-bitva-ukrayini-za-svobo-36927
31March2016-07:17
DearmembersoftheWorldAffairsCouncilsofAmerica,
Distinguishedaudience,
YourExcellency,
Ladiesandgentlemen,
ItisapleasureformetobeheretonightandseesomanyfriendsofUkraine.
ThisisespeciallyimportantformetobeintheCongressbuilding.
IhadanhonortohaveaspeechintheCongressandSenateonSeptember18,2014.Thatwasaneventforthewholeofmylife.
Andthatwasaveryimportantsymbolofsupport,whichwasdemonstratedintheU.S.Congressformycountryandforthe
peopleofUkraine.Thankyouverymuchindeedforthat.
Letmestartwithwordsofgratitude.
IamgratefultotheUnitedStatesGovernmentforstandingbyUkraine'ssideoverlasttwoyearsthehardesttwoyearsinthe
historyofmycountry.
IamgratefultotheUkrainianAmericancommunitywhichhasbeensupportingUkrainesoactivelyinsomanyways.
IamgratefultoallpeopleofgoodwillwhostoodwithUkraineandextendedtheirfinancial,in-kindandmoralsupport.This
supportisvitallyimportantformeandforthepeopleofUkraine.
Dearfriends,
SinceI'vevisitedAmericalasttime,UkrainehaseffectivelystoppedtheRussianoffensive.
Thepricewehavepaidisstriking.
Almost10,000peoplehavedied.Over2,700ofthemareUkrainianservicemenkilledbyfireofcombinedRussian-militantforces.
ThisnumberexceedstheUSmilitarylossesinAfghanistanforthelast15years.
1.75millionIDPslosttheirhomesinDonetskandLuhanskregionsandmovedtootherregionsofUkraine.
AndI,asPresident,theUkrainianGovernment,Ukrainianlocalauthoritiesshouldfindoutshelter,houses,jobs,educationforthem
andtheirchildren.Organizeeverything.
Butwearehavingverystrongexpectationsandhopesthatintheverynearfuture1.75millionUkrainianswillhaveanopportunity
tocomebacktotheirnativelandinDonetskandLuhanskregions.
7%ofUkrainianterritoryisunderoccupation.
20%ofUkrainianeconomyandindustrialoutputisseizedordestroyed.
19monthsafterweinitiatedtheMinskprocess,Istillreceivereportsaboutlossesandshellingofourpositionsinthefrontlineevery
singleday.
EverymorningIhaveareportfromChiefoftheGeneralStaff,GeneraloftheUkrainianArmyMuzhenko.Unfortunately,every
daywehavefrom50to100shellingperday.
Russiacontinuessendingtroops,heavyweaponsandammunitionintoUkraineafewtimesaweek.OnlysinceJanuary1,2016,
RussiantrainsandtrucksfullofsupplieshaveillegallycrossedtheuncontrolledpartoftheUkrainian-Russianborderover80times.
RussiasproxiesinDonbasstillheavilyimpedetheOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoaccessallareasundertheircontroland
verifytheceasefireandwithdrawalofweapons.
TheydonotallowthemtoaccesstheuncontrolledpartoftheUkrainian-Russianborderjusttocheckandinformindependently
thewholeworldaboutwhatisgoingonintheoccupiedterritory.
Thissituationisnotconducivetoholdinglocalelectionsinmilitant-controlledareasofDonbaswhichareofkeyimportancefor
furtherprogressinthesettlement.
Russiakeepsusinganescalationcardwheneveritwantstopushforapreferredscenario.
ItkeepssupportingmilitantsinDonbasasitwantstohaveapermanentleverageonUkraine.
Russiaalsouseshumanlivesasatradingchip.
Aftermonthsofnegotiations,westillcannotgetover120UkrainiansfromcaptivityinDonbas.ICRCisbannedtovisitthemas
wellastosearchabout800missingpersons.
TheKremlinhasgoneevenfurther.Atleast11UkrainiancitizenshavebecomepoliticalprisonersinRussia.Farcetrials,unjust
verdictsandillegaldetentionofHeroofUkraine,memberoftheUkrainianParliament,PACEmemberNadiyaSavchenkowhohas
stayedthereforalmosttwoyearsfordoingnothingbutdefendingtheUkrainianlandasaUkrainianofficer.Twoyears.AndOleg
Sentsov,andKolchenko,andmanyothersarejustappalling.
Someofthem,includingNadiyaSavchenko,areinacriticalhealthcondition.ButthisfactorhasnomeaningforMoscowwhich
stilldoesnotallowUkrainiandoctorstovisitNadiyaforanindependentinspection,despitepromisesofRussianForeignMinister
Mr.Lavrov.ItrejectsaccessforGermandoctorsanddoctorsoftheICRC.
WehaveapprovedthesanctionslistagainstindividualswhohadpartakeninthefarcetrialsagainstUkrainianpoliticalprisonersin
Russia.SocalledSavchenko-Sentsovlist.VerysimilartotheMagnitskyList.WeexpectthatourUSandEuropeanpartnersjoin
thisinitiative.
Ladiesandgentlemen,
UkraineremainscommittedtotheimplementationoftheMinskagreementsintheirentirety.Thisistheonlyoptionforthepeaceful
settlementonthetablenow.
WearekeentounlockthepoliticalprocessandholdthelocalelectionsinDonbas.
However,theseelectionsarepossibleonly:
IfRussiaimplementssecurityprovisionsoftheMinskarrangementsanddoesnotmanipulatewiththephraseholdinglocal
electionsinlinewiththeUkrainianlegislationandinternationalstandards.Freeandfairelectionsmeansthatelectionsshouldbe
freeandelectionsshouldbefair.WecannotacceptlegitimizingtheoccupationofDonbasthroughfarceelectionsorRussian
understandingoffreeandfairelections,whichhasnothingtodowithdemocraticstandards.WehaveexactcriteriaoftheOSCE
thatdefinefreeandfairelections.Andtheseelectionsshouldbeacceptedbythewholeworld.
IftheinternationalcommunitybrokersdeploysanenhancedOSCEpolicemissioninDonbastoensuresecuritybefore,
duringandaftertheelections.CanyouimagineanybodymakingelectioncampaignwhenwehavethousandsofRussiantroopson
thestreet.Andnobodyhasaccesstoindependentmediabecauseitsimplydoesn'texistonthisterritory,justasindependent
electionscommission.And1.75millionUkrainianslivingtherehavenorighttovote.WewillneveracceptthisRussianstandardof
democracy.
IfwestartworkingtowardseventualrestorationofUkrainescontrolovertheuncontrolledpartoftheUkrainian-Russian
border.Russiahasdeliveredmorethan750tanks,morethan1500artillerysystems,echelonsofammunitiontoaverysmall
territory.Whatfor?Everyoneunderstandsthat.Ofcourse,thisdoesn'tincreasesecurityoftheregion.
Therecipeforthesettlementisrathersimpleasthat.WhatisnotsimpleischangingRussiasattitudeandmakingitleaveUkraine
alone.
Dearfriends,
Therearesystemicandlarge-scaleviolationsofhumanrightsinCrimea.Internationalorganizationssignalthesefactsintheir
reports.
Theoccupationregimetargetseveryonewhoshowsdissent,especiallyUkrainiansandCrimeanTatarswhosupportsovereignty,
independenceandterritorialintegrityofUkraine.
TheRussianoccupationregimehaslaunchedover130criminalcasesagainstCrimeanTatars,includingacasetobantheirmain
organizationMejlis.
21CrimeanTatarshavebeenkidnapped,3founddead,9arestillmissing.
Over20,000UkrainiansandCrimeanTatarswereforcedtoleavethepeninsula.
RussiaheavilymilitarizesCrimea.Itseekstodeploynuclearweaponsthere,too.
ThisisRussia'sunderstandingofsecurityintheregion.
Ispeakaboutthisforaveryclearreason.
IcameheretoparticipateintheNuclearSecuritySummit.
IhaveanhonortobePresidentofthestatewhichmadeauniquecontributiontothenuclearsecurityintheworld.
In1994,Ukraineabandonedthethirdlargestnuclearweaponsarsenal.
AtthefirstNuclearSecuritySummitin2010undertheleadershipofPresidentObama,werefusedfromastockpileofhighly
enricheduraniumandhaveimplementedourpledgesofar.
Asoftoday,UkraineremainsamongthekeycontributorstosuccessoftheObamaNuclearSecurityinitiative.
AndIamproudofthat.
Whatdidwegetinresponse?
Wegotsecurityassurancesunderthe1994BudapestMemorandumaboutsovereignty,territorialintegrityandindependenceofmy
country.Veryclear.Giveupnuclearweaponsandreceivesecurityguarantee.Soundsgood.Butwhathasitturnedtobeinreality?
RussiasimplydefieditsassurancestoUkraineandcommittedadirectarmedaggressionagainstmystate.
TheUkrainianpatriotsarelosingtheirlivesdefendingthesamevaluesthataredeartoAmericaandEurope.
Weareofoneblood,onemindandonevalues.Democraticvalues.
We,Ukrainians,areentitledtocallupontheWesternguarantorsundertheMemorandumtotakeallpossibleeffortstorestore
internationaljusticeandorder,tohelpusinourbattleforsurvivalandindependent,democraticandEuropeanfuture.
IbelievethatthereisarealchanceforPresidentObamatomarkhispresidentialtermwithsettlementoftheconflictinDonbas.
Ladiesandgentlemen,
Thesearedifficulttimes.NotonlyforUkrainebutforallnations.
Themankindfacesmanyproblemsterrorism,growingradicalismandxenophobia,migration,climatechange.
Theworldistemptedtochoosepragmatismovervalues,self-isolationismovercourage,andappeasementoverpeace.
ManythinkthatitisjustamatteroftimethatthedustsettlesinUkraineandthingswillgetbacktooldnormallifeinEurope.
Idontthinkitsgoingtohappen.Theoldnormalisover.
RecognizeitornotbuttheWesthasaproblemalargenuclearstatewithinferioritycomplex,withhatefulattitudeandwithtotal
disregardforthecommonvalues,agreedprinciplesandnorms.
Andthisproblemwillnotgoawaybyitself.
RussiaisnotjustrejectingEurope.
ItistryingtobuildanalternativeEuropebasedonalternativevalues.
Tyrannyinsteadofdemocracy.Intoleranceinsteadofrespect.Azero-sumgameinsteadofwin-win.
AsRussiatearsUkraineapartphysically,ittearsEuropeapartpolitically.
ItdoesitsbesttopromoteEuroscepticismandnurtureanti-EUpartiesthroughoutthecontinentineverysingleEuropeanmember-
statejusttomakeEuropeweaker,disintegratedandbringcrisistoEurope.
Russia-inspiredisolationismbecomesafactorintheworldwithouttheworldnoticingit.
ItisnotaboutRussiaandtheWestbeingunclearabouttheirintentionsinEurope.
ItisaboutRussiaandtheWesthavingoppositeintentionsforEurope.
TheWestwantsacircleoftrust.Russiawantsacircleofdomination.
ItwasnotahumiliationfromtheWestthatallegedlyputRussiaondefenselines.
ItwasthelackoffearintheWestthatwasRussiasbiggesthumiliation.
AndMoscowistryingtogetacompensationforit.
YesterdayinTransnistriaandGeorgia.TodayinUkraineandSyria.Whoseturnwillbenext?WherecanRussiantroops
appear?
Developmentofthesituationdemonstratesacompletecrisisofthepost-warsecuritysystem.Italsodemonstratesthatthereareno
redlinesforRussia.Letusbepreparedforthat.Letusbeeffectiveinthedefenseofourcountries,ourvaluesandourworld.
Itistimetofacethisrealityandfindproperresponsestothissituation.
Dearfriends,
Weshouldrealizethattheworldwillnotbethesameagain.
Whatitwillbelikedependsonanumberoffactors.
ThemostimportantoneissuccessofUkraine.WecannotgiveanychancetoRussiathatwelosethisbattle.Notonlyintheeastof
mycountry,notonlyinCrimea.
Whatshallwedotosecurethissuccess?
First,weshallestablishpeaceinUkraine.
Ukrainewantsitbecausethatisitschancetosurvive.
TheWestwantsitbecauseitcannotfeelcomfortablewhileaneighborthatsharesthesamevaluesisbleedingforchoosingthem.
Thisisonlyonereason-choiceofUkrainianpeople,Europeanchoice.
AndRussiacanbeforcedintoit.Bywhatmechanism?
WearenotwaitingNATOtroopsinUkraine.Myarmydefendsmycountryveryeffectively.
WehaveaneffectivemechanismtomotivateRussiatositatthetableofnegotiations.Andthenameofthismechanismissanctions.
Itisworkingdespitenegativepredictionsofsceptics.AndRussiapayshugepricefornotsittingatthetableofnegotiations.
TheKremlinthinksthatitisreachingitsgoalsinUkraine,atUkrainescost.
DearlyforUkraine,cheaplyfortheWest.
IftheWestliftssanctions,theKremlinswishwillcometrue:Ukrainianbloodwillcostnothing.KillingUkrainianswillgowithout
anypunishment.Thatisthequestionofvalues.
CananyoneintheWestacceptthis?Iamanoptimist.Iamabsolutelysure,thisisnotpossible.
SanctionsaretheonlylineinthesandthattheWestdrewafter2014.
Itistheonlylinebetweengoodandevildrawninthecontextofthiswar.
Andifthereisnolineanymorethanwhatsthedifferencebetweengoodandevil?
Dowereallywantaworlddevoidofpoliticalboundaries?
Dowewantaworldwhereonecangrabothernationsland,killthousandsandstayunpunished?
Therefore,withoutsustainablepeaceinDonbassanctionsmuststayinplace.
WithoutrestoringUkrainessovereigntyoverCrimeasanctionsmuststayinplace.
WithoutanewRussianattitudesanctionsmuststayinplace.
Anythinglesswouldbeacompromiseatthecostofvaluesandjustice.
Therightsignalisthatifyoupursueanaggressivepolicy,noonewilldealwithyou.
Andiftheperpetratorkeepskillingandstirringinstabilityitdoesnotmeanthesanctionsdonotworkandmustbelifted.
Itmeanstheymustbestrengthened.
Weshouldnotrepeatthemistakeof2008whentheWestdecidedthatRussiahadgotwhatitwantedandwouldbecomequiet
now.
ThethingabouttodaysRussiais:itseeksdomination,notcompromise.
Theydontbelieveinwin-win.
TheywantUkrainedownandtheWestout.
Thisistheonlywayhowtheythinktheygoup.
YourworstfearsaretheirplanA.
Second,weshallensuresustainabletransformationofUkraine.
ThatsprimarilyUkrainesresponsibility.Noquestionaboutthat.
Aswehavebeendefendingourcountrylasttwoyearswehavebeenalsoimplementingabroadreformpackage.Alothasbeen
donesofar.
Firstofall,asPresidentandSupremeCommander-in-Chief,Icanassureyouthatwehavebuiltanabsolutelynewandeffective
Ukrainianarmyinthelast19months.
Icantellyouaveryimportantstory.WhenIwaselectedPresidentandhadacontactwithourpartnersaskingaboutmilitary
supportformyArmedForces,theanswerwas"no".BecauseyourarmyiscorruptiveandisfilledwithFSBagents.Insuchashort
periodoftime,wedemonstratedthatanew,transparent,effective,verystrongandpatrioticarmycanstopRussianaggressionand
release2/3oftheoccupiedDonbasterritories.
Earlier,Ukrainianarmyhada7%levelofsupportfromtheUkrainianpeople.Today,ithasalmost80%.Thisisasymbolof
changesinmycountry.
AndRussianpropagandadistributescompletelydifferentmessagesthroughouttheworld,whichisapartofhybridwaragainst
Ukraine.
Wehavemadethefirstbutcriticalblowagainstcorruption.Thecapitalrenovationoftheanticorruptioninstitutionalsystemhas
beenfinalized.Fromnowonourprioritygoalistomakeitfunctionalandoperational.Ibelievethatappointmentofnewhighly
professional,responsible,well-trustedProsecutorGeneralwilltriggeranewpageinanticorruptionpolicyofUkraine.
Wehavecompletelyrebuiltthesystem.TheSpecialAnti-CorruptionProsecutorwhowasappointedinanabsolutelytransparent
competitionhasafullleveloftrustintheUkrainiansociety.Histeamhaspowertofightagainstcorruptionandheiscompletely
independent.
Welaunchedseveralcriminalcasesagainstministers,governors,MPs.Nobodyhasanumbrellaagainstinvestigationoncorruption
charges.
WecreatedtheSpecialAnti-CorruptionElectronicDeclaration.Everychiefofthepolice,governor,minister,MPshouldexplain
publiclyandtransparentlyhowdidhegethisvilla,plane,expensivecars.Weneverhaditbeforeandwelaunchedittwoweeks
ago.AndIamsureitwillwork.
Lastweek,theChiefoftheSpecialAgencyforPreventingCorruptionwaselected.
Wehavemanagedtostabilizeeconomicandfinancialsituation.
Exactlyoneyearago,ourgoldencurrencyreservewaszero.Today,afterthemostcriticalyearinourhistory,whenwespent5%
GDPfornationalsecurityanddefense,whenwehadadisastroussituationwithpricesonthemainproductsofUkrainianexports,
wenowhave13billioninthegoldencurrencyreserve.
Duringthewar,wereducedthebudgetdeficitfrom12%to3%.
WehadenergymonopolistNJSCNaftogazofUkrainewith130billiondeficitsubsidizedfromthestate.Thisyear,afterenergy
reform,wehaveazerodeficit.Inoneyear!Forthefirsttimein25yearsofourhistory.
Wehaveimprovedpublicspending.
Wehavecleanedupourbanksystemtomakeitmoreresilient.
Wehavemadeagoodprogressinderegulationthatsignificantlyeasedtheregistrationofbusiness.
Wehavestreamlinedthetaxsystem.
WehavetakenhardbutimportantdecisionsintheenergysectorwhichleadtoUkrainesenergyindependence.
AfterdecadesofkeepingUkraineonthegasneedlenowRussiaisknockingonourdooraskingtobuysomegas.Thatiswhat
wearelookingfor.Becausegasandenergycorruptionwerefeedingthepreviousgovernment.Notanymore.Andwedoitinvery
difficultconditions.
WehavelaunchedanewpolicewhichisdeemedtobecomeapillaroftrustfortheUkrainiansociety.Ourinspirationwasdrawn
fromtheUSpolice.AndIamproudthatpolicemenfromCaliforniabecameinstructorsofournewpolicemen.
Earlier,socialtrustinoldmilitiawaslessthan5%.Today,ithasraisedupto70%inlessthanayear.
Earlier,peopleavoidedthecontactandnowtheyfindprotectionandtransparency.Thisisaveryimportantsymbolofthenew
country.
Bytheway,wehaveanextremelysuccessfulcooperationwiththeArmedForces.Severaltimesayear,IvisittheYavorivtraining
center,whichconductsjointexerciseswithAmerican,Canadian,British,Europeansoldiers.Wedidn'thaveitbefore.Thisisa
demonstrationoftrustbetweenourcountries.
Wehavesteppedupontothepublicservicereformandintroducede-government.
Alotisstilltobedone.
AndIwilldomyutmost.Thedriveforreformsisthere.
Onemayconsiderthelatestgovernmentalcrisisachallenge.ButIconsideritachance.Wehavetocomeoutofitmoreresilientto
internalandexternalshocks.
Iexpectthatinseveralhours,anewcoalitionintheUkrainianParliamentwillappearandproposeanewcandidateforPrime
Minister.Iamabsolutelysurethatthesolutiontotheparliamentarycrisisisalreadyveryclose.Mostprobably,itwillbeachieved
thisweek.
ThatswhyIinsistonclearprinciplesfortheformationofanewgovernmentandacoalitionintheparliament.Nolessimportantis
aclearprogramforthegovernmentbasedonIMFcommitments,AssociationAgreementwiththeEU,anti-corruptionfightandthe
Minskagreementsimplementation.
So,wedontgiveup,despitethepressurewefaceeverysingleday,onexternalandinternalfronts.BecausethisisexactlyPutin's
scenario.Understandingthatnobodysupportshim,hedoesn'thaveanyopportunityfortheoffensiveoperationintheeastof
Ukraine.Heopensanewfront,internalfrontinanattempttodestabilizeUkraine.AndIinsistthatwemustgivehimnochances.
Atthesametime,itiscriticalthattheWestdoesnotgiveuponUkraine,either.Thisisthird.
RussiaswaragainstUkrainehasproventhatweaknessprovokestheaggressionwhileastrongcountrycandeterabully.
Itisthereforevitalthatourpartnershelpusbecomestronginalltermspolitically,economicallyandmilitarily.
AsIsaidbefore,wehavebeenabletostoptheRussianoffensiveontheground.Wegotalotofsupportfromourpartners.
Yet,Icouldneverexplainonethingtomyselfandtomycompatriotsreluctanceoftheinternationalcommunitytosupply
weaponstothelegitimateUkrainiangovernmentandregularUkrainianArmywhichholdsthelineagainsttheattackonthe
internationalorder.
Ithinkitistimetorevisethisattitude.
EveryeffortappliedtoprotectUkraineisaninvestmentintolong-termsecurityoftheWestandsustainabilityofdemocraticvalues.
Ladiesandgentlemen,
Inthetimesofglobalweakness,thereisathingthatcountsmorethananythingelseleadership.
Itisaprivilegeandaheavyburden.
Noteveryonewantsit.Noteveryonedeservesit.
Therearesomanyreasonsnottocarryit:indifference,fatigue,self-doubt
Andthereisonlyonereasontocarryit:youhaveitinyourblood.
Inthesetimesofdoubt,IurgeAmericatobestrongandbelieveinitselfjustlikepeopleofgoodwillworldwidekeepbelievingin
America.
Dontletpragmatismmakeyouforgetaboutvalues,withfreedombeingatthetopofthem.
DontletAmericabecomesmall-minded.
UkrainehighlyappreciatesabondwiththeUnitedStates.
TheAmericanleadershiphasbeenveryimportantforprogressivereformsinUkraine.
TheUSsupporthasbeencriticalforsuccessfulresistancetotheRussianaggression.
ItishightimetoboostUkraine-USbilateraldialogueinformandcontent.
Itisalsotimetoupgradeourstrategicallianceandtochannelourintensecooperationindefenseandsecurityintoacomprehensive
bilateralsecurityagreement.
Ibelievethatthiswouldbetobenefitofall.
Dearfriends,
Ukrainesfightisafightforfreedom.Andthisfightcontinues.
Peoplediesothatfreedomdoesnt.
IknowthatUkrainehasatimingproblem.
Inadisillusionedworld,shechosenotthebesttimetobecomefree.
But,astheBiblesays,TheSpiritbreatheswherehewill.
IntodaysworldthespiritoffreedombreathesinUkraine.
Pleasesupportit!
Thankyou.
From:<radhumennyj@aol.com>
Subject:Fwd:thankyouIsrael[IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimeaexpert]
Subject:thankyouIsrael
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/334346.html
16:3230.03.2016
IsraelslapsfulleconomicblockadeonCrimeaexpert

IsraeldoesnotrecommenddoingbusinessinoccupiedCrimea,notwithstandingthefactthatIsraelisnottrying
stirupthewarissue,thisisactuallyafullblockadefrompointofIsraelibusiness'view,theexpertinUkrainian-
IsraelirelationsandIsraelieditor-in-chiefoftheForumDailynewspaper(theUnitedStates),ShimonBriman,
hassaid.
"Inthegeneral,theofficialpositionofIsraelisneutral,butitmainlyaimsatdevelopingUkraineinpractice,"he
saidatapressconferenceinKyivonTuesday.
HesaidthatIsraelhasnotrecognizedtheannexationofCrimea,butTel-Avivsaidthatthisisnottheirconflict.
IsraelistryingtohavefriendlyrelationsbothwithUkraineandRussia.Israel'ssuspensionofunmannedaerial
vehicles(UAVs)suppliestoRussiaandthenon-deliveryofUAVstoUkraineisevidenceofthis.
IsraelclosedtheHonoraryConsulateinCrimeaassoonastheirconsulbackedtheoccupation.Thecountry
openedtheHonoraryConsulateinLvivinstead.
"ThiswasaparticularsignalforMoscow,"Brimansaid.
IsraeliAmbassadortoUkraineEliavBelotserkovskywarnedIsraelibusinessmenthatIsraeldoesnot
recommenddoingbusinessinoccupiedCrimeaandlargeIsraeliinsurancecompaniesstoppedinsuringdealsin
thepeninsula.
ThecountryprovidesallkindsofassistancetoUkraine.Medicalassistance,medicalofficerandarmy
psychologisttrainingprogramsarebeingimplemented.
AlargeprogramtointroduceIsraelireclamationandirrigationsolutionsinthesouthernregionsofUkraine
(Kherson,MykolaivandZaporizhiaregion)hasbeenstarted:35,000Ukrainianfarmerswillhaveaccessto
advancedIsraelisolutionswithsupportoftheCanadiangovernment.
"ThisisdirectlylinkedtoCrimea.ItwillshowthatrecognizedUkrainianterritoriesaredeveloping,whilethe
occupiedterritoriesremainamess,"thejournalistsaid.
AmovementtosupportUkrainehasalsoappearedinIsrael-IsraeliFriendsofUkrainecollectedtonnesof
food,medicinesandotherassistancetoUkraine.
"IsawhowgirlsinTel-AvivsewedcamouflagescreensfortheUkrainianmilitary,"hesaid.
AlargescandalinIsraeleruptedoverthevisitofKnessetmemberYakovMargitoCrimea.TheKnesset
speakerfinallyapologizedforthistrip.Ukraine'sProsecutorGeneral'sOfficeopenedacriminalcaseagainst
Margi.
Subject:InAFlashbackToColdWarDays,PentagonAnnouncesPlanToDeployTroopsAlongRussianBorder
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pentagon-troops-russia-nato_us_56fcd667e4b0a06d5804d177
InAFlashbackToColdWarDays,Pentagon
AnnouncesPlanToDeployTroopsAlongRussian
Border
Credit:IntsKalnins/Reuters
AU.S.soldiersitsinhisHumveeduringtheNATOForceIntegrationUnitinaugurationeventinVilnius,
LithuaniaonSeptember3,2015.Thisweek,thePentagonannouncedplanstobeefupU.S.militarypresencein
EasternEurope.
AstensionscontinuetoescalatebetweenRussiaandtheWest,thePentagonhasannouncedplanstodeployU.S.
troops,armedwithmodernequipmentandheavyartillery,fulltimealongNATOseasternborders.
Theso-calledEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,willbethefirstsuchdeploymentsincetheColdWarended,The
WallStreetJournalreported.Itspurpose:TodeterRussianaggressionwhileservingtoreassureWesternalliesof
U.S.commitmenttotheregion.
GeneralPhilipBreedlove,thetopU.S.commanderinEurope,announcedtheplanonWednesday,callingitastrong
andbalancedapproachtoreassuringourNATOAlliesandpartnersinthewakeofanaggressiveRussiainEastern
Europeandelsewhere.
Ouralliesandpartnerswillseemorecapability,hesaidinastatement.Theywillseeamorefrequentpresenceof
anarmoredbrigadewithmoremodernizedequipmentintheircountries.
.@US_EUCOMannouncesEuropeanReassuranceInitiativeimplementation
planhttp://go.usa.gov/csbyA#StrongEurope
U.S.ArmyEurope(@USArmyEurope)6:33AM-30Mar2016
ThenewproposalwouldputanadditionalU.S.armoredbrigadeinEurope,specificallyalongNATOseastern
flank.Thebrigade,whichtypicallycomprisesabout4,200soldiersandhundredsofheavyvehicles,tanksandother
equipment,willrotateinonacontinualbasis,andwillbedividedacrosssixcountries:Lithuania,Estonia,Latvia,
Poland,RomaniaandBulgaria.
Lt.Gen.BenHodges,thecommanderofU.S.ArmyEurope,saidtheproposalwouldcreateaconstantpresenceof
U.S.forcesalongNATOseasternborder.
TherewillbeAmericanequipmentandpeopleineachofthesecountries,HodgestoldtheJournal.Wewillhave
theflexibilitytoconvergetheentirebrigadeforexercisesandthatisanimportantpartofthedeterrence,toshowa
warfightingcapability.
Google
MapsThePentagonplanstohaveU.S.troopscontinuallystationedalongNATOsEasternflank.
SlatedtostartinFebruary2017,theplanwillincreasethenumberofU.S.combatbrigadesinEuropetothree.
Currently,thereareapproximately62,000U.S.militaryforces,includingareported25,000Armysoldiers,
permanentlybasedinthecontinent.
AccordingtoPentagonspokeswomanLauraSeal,theproposalwillalsoallowfortheU.S.tobringinmore
advancedequipmenttoeasternEurope.
ThiswillbethemostmodernizedequipmenttheArmyhastooffer,andwill,overthenextyear,replacetheless
moderntrainingequipmentweputinEuropeoverthelastfewyears,SealtoldAP.
Thenewgearwillreportedlyinclude250tanks,BradleyFightingVehicles,Paladinself-propelledhowitzersandmore
than1,700additionalwheeledvehicles.
PentagonreadiesmorerobustU.S.militarypresenceinEasternEuropehttp://on.wsj.com/21SWFzU
WallStreetJournal(@WSJ)5:00AM-30Mar2016
AccordingtoMashable,thePentagonrequested$3.4billioninFebruaryfortheinitiative,aftertheWhiteHousegave
thego-ahead.Congress,however,stillmustapprovetherequest.

WhatdoestheEuropeanReassuranceInitiative(ERI)implementationplanmeanfor
Europe?http://goo.gl/3zEq8k
USMissiontoNATO(@USNATO)8:31AM-30Mar2016
RelationsbetweentheKremlinandtheWesthavebeenparticularlystrainedsinceRussiasannexationoftheCrimean
Peninsulain2014,anditssubsequentmilitaryactionsinUkraine.Justthisweek,themountingtensionwashighlighted
againwhenRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsaidhewouldboycotttheNuclearSecuritySummitinWashington.
RussiasdecisiontocertainlynotparticipateatahighlevelwebelieveisamissedopportunityforRussiaaboveall,
BenRhodes,deputynationalsecurityadvisertotheWhiteHouseNationalSecurityCouncil,toldreporterson
Tuesday.Frankly,alltheyredoingisisolatingthemselves.
Subject:UStoincreasemilitarypresenceineasternEurope-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35930130
UStoincreasemilitarypresenceineasternEurope
APThe
movewillenablemoremilitaryexercises,likethisoneinPoland
TheUSisboostingitstrooppresenceineasternEuropeinresponsetoan"aggressiveRussia",the
militarysays.
Anextraarmouredbrigadeisbeingdeployed,meaningatotalofthreewillbethereonacontinuousbasis.
TheBBC'sdiplomaticcorrespondentsaysitisthemostsignificantUSreinforcementofNatosincetensionsflared
overRussianactioninUkraine.
LastmonththePentagonannouncedplanstoquadrupleitsbudgetforEuropeandefencein2017.
TheadditionalpresencewillincreaseUSabilitytoconductmilitaryexercisesintheregion.
Theplandemonstrates"ourstrongandbalancedapproachtoreassuringourNatoalliesandpartnersinthewakeof
anaggressiveRussiaineasternEuropeandelsewhere",saidGenPhilipBreedlove,theseniorUScommanderin
Europe.
"Ouralliesandpartnerswillseemorecapability.Theywillseeamorefrequentpresenceofanarmouredbrigadewith
moremodernisedequipmentintheircountries,"headded.
'Division'sworthofstuff'
Eachbrigadewillrotatethroughtheregionforninemonthsbeforebeingreplaced.
Thereareabout4,200soldiersinabrigade,bringingwiththemmilitaryvehiclesandotherequipment.
"Therewillbeadivision'sworthofstufftofightifsomethinghappens,"DeputySecretaryofDefenceRobert
WorktoldtheWallStreetJournal.
EPASome
EasternEuropeancountrieshavebeenalarmedbyRussianactioninUkraine
RelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWesthaveplummetedsinceRussiaannexedtheUkrainianpeninsulaofCrimeain
March2014.
TheinterventionsparkedfearsthatRussiawasconsideringotherincursionsintoneighbouringcountries.
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondtoldReutersonWednesdaythesituationinUkrainehad"gonebackwards
overthelastfewmonths,withmoreandmoreviolationsoftheceasefire".
RussiahasaccusedNatoofusingthesituationinUkraineasanexcusetomoveclosertoRussianborders.
"StoriesarebeingspreadthatRussiawillsenditstanksintotheBalticstates,intoSofiaorintoBudapest.No-one
intendstodothat,"Russia'sDeputyDefenceMinisterAnatolyAntonovtoldGermanpublicbroadcasterDeutsche
Welle.
SomeanalystssuggestedtheUSmilitarycouldbeplanningforthepost-Obamaera.
ThefrontrunnertobetheRepublicannomineeforthepresidentialelection,DonaldTrump,hasstronglyattackedthe
economiccostofUSforeignpolicy.
EUCOM-theUSEuropeanCommand-aimstosupport"enduringstabilityandpeace"
onthecontinent
62,000
USservicepersonnelarepermanentlybasedinEurope
25,000ofthesearearmysoldiers
4,200moreundernewplan
21USbasesacrossEurope
AP,EUCOM
AFP
Senttime: 04/13/201609:45:47AM
FW:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UARUforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATOforcesDiplomacyUS
Subject:
policyCyberSwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-KarabakhRefugeesRussianf...
Sent:Tuesday,April12,20166:40PM
Subject:Fwd:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UARUforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATOforces
DiplomacyUSpolicyCyberSwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-KarabakhRefugees
Russianf...
Subject:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UARUforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATO
forcesDiplomacyUSpolicyCyberSwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-Karabakh
RefugeesRussianforcesinSyria.......[MH]IRFStatement:Therighttoutmosttruthdiseasecontradictsopensociety.....[VRT]
OlexanderDugin's'Arctogaic-Eurasianist'SpectreHauntsEurope[Despitethezaninessofthewriting,theitemsprovidedneed'close
consideration']
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineRussianforcesUkrainesituationNavalnyNATOforcesDiplomacyUSpolicyCyber
SwedenResearchmethodsHistoryCorruptionPanamapapersMediaNagorno-KarabakhRefugeesRussianforcesinSyria
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30hrs,11April2016
TheSMMobservedalowernumberofceasefireviolationsinDonetskregioncomparedtotheprevioustwodays.[1]Whilst
positionedatDonetskcitycentreduringthenightof10April,theSMMheard14undeterminedexplosions7-10kmnorth-westand
north-north-westofitsposition.WhilstattheDonetskcentralrailwaystation(DPR-controlled,6kmnorth-westofDonetskcity
centre),duringtheday,theSMMregistered181undeterminedexplosions,86shotsofsmall-armsandfiveburstsofheavy-machine-
gunfire,andmorethan30burstsofanti-aircraft-gunfire(23mm)atlocations3-5kmnorth,east,west-north-west,north-westand
north-north-westofitslocation.
WhilstnearDPR-controlledYasynuvata(16kmnorth-eastofDonetsk),theSMMheardoneimpactand103undetermined
explosions,44shotsand40burstsofsmall-armsfire,andfiveburstsofheavy-machine-gunfireatlocations2-5kmeast,south-west,
west,andnorth-westofitslocation.Whilstingovernment-controlledAvdiivka(17kmnorth-westofDonetsk),theSMMheard18
impactsandthreeburstsofrecoillessgun(SPG-9,73mm),siximpactsand12shotsofautomatic-grenade-launcherrounds(AGS17,
30mm),siximpactsofmortarrounds(two82andfour120mm),28burstsofheavy-machine-gunand42burstsofanti-aircraft-gunfire
(ZU-23-2,23mm),twoimpactsofartilleryrounds(one122andone152mm)and14burstsofsmall-armsfireatlocations2.2-8km
north-east,east,south-east,south-south-east,south,andsouth-south-westofitslocation.
Positionedingovernment-controlledSvitlodarsk(57kmnorth-eastofDonetsk),duringtheeveningof10April,theSMMheardat
least25burstsofsmall-armsfire,atleast20burstsofheavy-machine-gunfire,morethan70undeterminedmortarexplosionsandfive
explosionsof120mmmortarrounds,15roundsofautomatic-grenade-launcherfire,andfiveoutgoingBMP-1roundsatlocations3-
10kmsouthandsouth-eastofitsposition.Duringthesametime,theSMMheardatleast20burstsofheavy-machine-gunfire(BMP-
2,30mm)3-4kmsouth-south-westand60undeterminedmortarexplosionsatlocations8-10kmnorth-north-westofitsposition.
WhilstinDPR-controlledHorlivka(39kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)ontheeveningof10ApriltheSMMheardinlessthan90
minutes48mortarexplosions(82mm),sawandheardmorethan135burstsandairburstsofanti-aircraft-gunfire(ZU-23,23mm),
heard24artilleryexplosions(16122andnine152mm),sawandheardsixexplosionscausedbyanti-tankmissilesandover100
burstsofmachine-gunandsmall-armsfireatlocations2-3kmsouth-eastaswellas4-13kmsouth-west,westandnorth-westofits
location.
Whilstingovernment-controlledMariupol(102kmsouthofDonetsk)duringtheeveningof10April,theSMMregistered32
undeterminedexplosionsatanunknowndistancetotheeastofitsposition.Positioned2kmsouth-eastofgovernment-controlled
ZelenyiHai(46kmsouth-westofDonetsk),theSMMheard24singleshotsintwominutesapproximately1kmwestofitsposition.
AccordingtotheJCCC,therewereongoinglive-fireexercisesataUkrainianArmedForcestrainingarea,withinthesecurityzone.
InLuhanskregiontheSMMregisteredalownumberofceasefireviolations,withseveralassessedaslive-firetrainingexercises.Whilst
inLPR-controlledKomisarivka(61kmsouth-westofLuhansk),theSMMheardfourshotsofsmall-armsfire300msouth-eastofits
position.FrompositionsinLPR-controlledareasofOrikhivkaandMalomykolaivka(32kmsouthand36kmsouth-westofLuhansk,
respectively),theSMMheardfiveexplosionscausedbyoutgoingartilleryrounds5-6kmwestandtwoundeterminedexplosions1-
2kmnorth-east,respectively,assessedaslive-firetrainingexercisesinareasoutsidethesecurityzone.Whilstingovernment-controlled
Zolote-4,theSMMheardanundeterminedexplosionandsawsmokerising500msouth-south-westofitsposition,assessedtobe
causedbyananti-tankmine.
Falseequivalency
RecentstatementsfromtheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEuropeandfromaspokespersonfortheEuropeanUnion
havecalledonallsidestotakeappropriatestepstode-escalatetheconflictineasternUkraine.Thisisnotonlyunhelpful,itis
misleading.Toacasualobservertheinterpretationofsuchastatementisthatbothsidessharetheguiltforescalatinginsteadofending
thewar.
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/paul-niland-false-equivalency-411840.html
UkraineReports79AttacksYesterday
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-785/?pressId=13305#13305
Russianforces

Newly-FormedNationalGuardCannotDispelPutinsMultipleInsecurities
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?
tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45301&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=d1b68b00d328040f3ce50cdb1fce5b50#.Vw0jrqR96Ul
PutinsNewPraetorianGuard
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?
tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45287&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=827&no_cache=1#.Vw1k3aR96Uk
[SentbyStefanForss]
Putinssecretarmy:Russianpresidentisaccusedofbuildingbattlegroupstrainedinclosecombatwhoarereadyforoperationsin
westernEurope
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3533605/Putin-s-secret-army-Russian-president-accused-building-battle-groups-trained-
close-combat-ready-operation-western-Europe.html#ixzz45eMyzQ6G
[SentbyStefanForss]
Ukrainesituation
UkraineIsFightingThreeWars,AllOfWhichAreGettingHotter
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-is-fighting-three-wars-all-of-which-are-getting-hotter/
Navalny
RussianOppositionPicksHolesInStateTV'Expos'OfNavalny
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/russia-opposition-mocks-state-tv-navalny-expose/27667901.html
TinkertailorNavalnyspyQuestionsyoushouldbeaskingaboutRussiantelevisionslatestbombshell
http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/12/tinker-tailor-navalny-spy
NATOforces
NorwayshortlistsDCNSandThyssenKruppforsubprogram
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/submarines/2016/04/08/norway-dcns-thyssenkrupp-submarine/82791180/
MakeNATOGreatAgain
http://cepa.org/make-nato-great-again
[SentbyStefanForss]
Germanarmyforcedtolaydownweaponsdueto'overtimelimits'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/10/german-army-forced-to-lay-down-weapons-due-to-overtime-limits/
Diplomacy
NATO-Russia:Asteptowardsrapprochement?
Europe'ssecurityprioritieshavechangedconsiderablysinceRussia'sannexationofCrimea.Butdonewthreatstrumpoldalliances?
DWaskswhethertheupcomingNATO-RussiaCouncilmeetingsignalsathawinrelations.
http://m.dw.com/en/nato-russia-a-step-towards-rapprochement/a-19179121
[SentbyAndrewMichta]
USpolicy
RemarksWithRussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov
http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/03/255138.htm
Cyber
Lithuanianparliamentundercyberattack
http://www.euractiv.com/section/digital/news/lithuanian-parliament-under-cyber-attack/
WithmuchofSwedensairtrafficcrippledon4Nov.2015,authoritiesintheScandinaviancountrynotifiedNATOofaserious,
ongoingcyberattackbyahackergrouplinkedtoRussianintelligence.
http://www.aldrimer.no/sweden-issued-cyber-attack-alert-as-its-air-traffic-reeled/
Sweden
RobertDalsj:Hirdmansljersmretochtapparpengarna
http://www.svd.se/robert-dalsjo-hirdman-saljer-smoret-och-tappar-pengarna/om/sakerhetsradet
Researchmethods
ReportingBiasandInformationWarfare
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/mbaum/documents/zb_isa_v5.pdf
History
UkrainepreparestomakeSovietKGBarchivesavailableonline
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/04/11/ukraine-prepares-to-make-soviet-kgb-archives-available-online/
Corruption
CorruptionIsTheNewCommunism
http://www.rferl.org/content/corruption-is-the-new-communism/27669638.html
Panamapapers
PanamaPapersRussianMobConnection
ThetroveofleakeddocumentshasalreadyrevealedthebillionsswirlingaroundPutin.NowaSwissfirmnamedinthepapersappears
tohavelinkstoRussianorganizedcrime.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/12/panama-papers-russian-mob-connection.html

Media
FortRuss'sexclusiveinvestigationshedslightontheallegationsofimproprietyoveratRussiaInsiderandthestorybehinditall
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/04/bausman-and-fraud-at-russia-insider.html?m=1
TheWorldHasStartedSpendingMoreonWeapons
TensionsinAsiaandEasternEuropespurfirstrisesinceIraqandAfghanpullouts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/global-military-spending-rose-in-2015-stockholm-peace-institute
[SentbyRobertDalsj]
Nagorno-Karabakh
AzerbaijansIncrementalIncreaseOnTheNagornoKarabaghFrontline
http://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2016/04/12/detailing-azerbaijans-incremental-increase-in-nagorno-karabaghs-frontline/
Armenia,AzerbaijanAirGrievancesAgainst"Allies"
Refugees
Muistiopaljastaa:SuominyrtyiVenjllerajaneuvotteluissa
http://m.iltalehti.fi/uutiset/2016041221403121_uu.shtml
[SentbyStefanForss]
WeeksafterpulloutfromSyria,Russianmilitaryisasbusyasever
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/weeks-after-pullout-from-syria-russian-military-is-as-busy-as-
ever/2016/04/11/d150a004-fd77-11e5-a569-2c9e819c14e4_story.html?postshare=4061460469026859&tid=ss_tw-bottom
AssadhastakenRussia'hostage,'andwhatcomesnextcouldbe'theworstthiswarhasseen'
Assuch,itappearsthatRussia'sattemptlastmonthtoforceAssadintoacornerbyannouncingapartialwithdrawalofadvisers
andwarplaneshasbackfired.AssadappearstohaverealizedthatRussia'sreputationasaleaderintheMiddleEastdepends,at
leastfornow,onmaintainingthestatusquoandkeepingtheregimeintact.
Russia'sinterventioninthewaronAssad'sbehalfinlateSeptemberwasfollowedbyaregimeoffensivetorecaptureAleppofromthe
rebelsthroughouttheendof2015.ButthattaskwaslargelyleftunfinishedbythetimeRussiadecidedto"withdraw"lastmonth,even
afterpro-governmentforceswonamajorvictoryinJanuarybybreakingarebelsiegeontwovillagesnorthwestofAleppothatserved
asTurkey'ssupplylinetorebelsthere.
ThefactthatPutinorderedRussiatode-escalateatsuchapivotalmomentforAssadmayhavebeenpartofabroaderRussian
strategytomaintainMoscow'sleverageattheforthcomingpeacetalksinGenevaoverAssadasmuchasovertheUS.Butthe
embattledpresidentnowseemspreparedtocallRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sbluff.
Russiais"afraidifsomebodyelseremoveshimortheyremovehim,thewholestatewillcollapse,"PaulSalem,thevicepresidentof
policyandresearchattheWashington-basedMiddleEastInstitute,toldTheWallStreetJournallastweekend.
"Theyarehostagetohiscontinuedsurvival,"Salemadded."He[Assad]canwithstandRussiandispleasureandirritation.Hefeels
undernocompulsiontomakemajorconcessions."
http://uk.businessinsider.com/syria-assad-russia-aleppo-offensive-2016-4
Syriaconflict:Russianhelicoptercrashes,killingtwocrew
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36022273?ocid=socialflow_twitter
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:2016-04-1216:45GMT-04:00
Subject:IRFStatement[ED:ANOTEONTHE"HYPER-DEMOCRACY"or"JUSTOL'FASHIONEDPOPULISM"
SWEEPINGUA......andtherestoftheWestaswell(left&right)......OHBOY!!!]
http://www.irf.ua/en/knowledgebase/news/khvoroba_prava_na_istinu_superechit_vidkritomu_suspilstvu/
Therighttoutmosttruthdiseasecontradictsopensociety
11APRIL2016
CommentbytheInternationalRenaissanceFoundation
Theinvestigation,performedbyjournalistsoftheSlidstvo.InfoprogramoftheHromadske.TVinpartnership
withtheInternationalConsortiumofInvestigativeJournalists(ICIJ)andtheOrganizedCrimeandCorruption
ReportingProject(OCCRP)hasdisclosedanobviousfactoftheexistenceofanoff-shorecompanywhose
beneficiaryisthePresidentofUkraine.Thisfactshouldreceiveitsjustappraisal.
Atthesametime,theproposedinterpretationofthedisclosedfindingshascausedreasonedcriticismbyexperts,
recognizedjournalists,andrepresentativesofleadingNGOs,which,liketheHromadske.TV,havehadlong-
standingandproductivecooperationwiththeFoundationindefendingthefreedomofspeechinUkraine.
ThereactionoftheSlidstvo.Infojournalistsreactiontothereasonedcriticismisdisappointing.Theyresorted
tothepositionofuncriticalself-justificationwithoutanyhintofrecognitionoftheirviolationofjournalistic
standards,namelythemanipulationofthefacts.Theauthorsoftheinvestigationdonotrecognizethatthe
connectionbetweenthePresidentsoffshorecompanyandtheIlovaysktragedyisartificialtheyhaveno
evidenceoftheRoshenassetsbeingmovedtotheoffshorearea,northeevidencethatoffshorecompanywas
createdpreciselytoavoidsalestaxes.
Inrelationtothispositiontakenbythe"Slidstvo.info"investigativejournalists,wehavetonotethatthe
journalistssyndromeoftherighttoholdtheabsolutetruth"runsnotonlycontrarytotheprincipleofbalanced
presentationofinformation.
Thereforms,havingreceivedthecleardirectiontowardstheEuropeanvaluesgivenbyMaidan,arecomplex
andsometimescontradictory.Assessingthemintwocolorsalone,"black"or"white"aredestructiveforthe
countrysprogress,astheynourishpoliticalpopulismandencourageaggressiveincompetenceinallspheresof
thesociety.
Buildingontheinteresttotheoffshoretopic,whichisimportantforthesociety,further"revelations"aboutthe
headofstatecontinuethroughuncriticalpublicationsofmaterialsofpoliticallymotivatedaccusationsof2003-
2004,inspiredbytheregimeofthattime.
Injournalism,thisunderminestheveryessenceoffreedomofspeech,replacingitwithaspacefor
compromatandmanipulation.Aseeminglyhonestpositionofachiefjustice,occupiedbyinvestigatorsof
hiddencorruption,isabletoturnintoitsownopposite,provokingthedevelopmentofmassdistrustofthe
mediasinformationmission.
AsrepresentativesoftheInternationalRenaissanceFoundation,whosemissionistopromoteanopen
democraticsociety,wedeclarethatthesolerighttoutmosttruthcontradictsthecorevalueofsuchasociety.No
onehasthatright.Everyrationalargumentshouldbeheard.
ItisourhopethattheteamandtheBoardofTrusteesoftheHromadske.TVwillfindtherightwaytoovercome
thisdangeroussyndromeinitsownenvironment.Bydoingso,itwillhelppreventitsfurtherspreadinthepublic
spaceofthecivilsociety.
YaremaBachynskiy
YevhenBystrytsky
TarasKachka
NataliyaLygachova-Chernolytska
InnaPidluska
IgorSemyvolos
IrynaSeniuta
OleksandrSushko
ValentynaTelychenko
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Apr12,2016at10:50AM
Subject:OlexanderDugin's'Arctogaic-Eurasianist'SpectreHauntsEurope.....[ED:RU'sopuson'HybridWarefare'isa
'mustnote'item]
Dugin'sArctogaic-EurasianismhasinvadedRUstrategicthinkingseeaRUstudyof:HybridWarfareasa"USRegime
ChangePlot"
NationalBolshevism.comisbackinbusiness!!!
AmustreadforthosetryingtodelvethemindsetoftheKremlinthesedays!!
COMPARE&CONTRAST:
http://orientalreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AK-Hybrid-Wars-updated.pdf
http://arctogaia.com/public/engl1.htm
Senttime: 03/29/201612:47:26PM
FW:[THESUMOFALLDIGESTS3-29][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT(2)WP(2)[Sorryifrepeat...butimportant].....[JDDD]10,300Russian
Subject:
TROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion+5MoreStories.....UCMCDailyReview
Sent:Tuesday,March29,201611:44AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[THESUMOFALLDIGESTS3-29][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT(2)WP(2)[Sorryifrepeat...butimportant].....[JDDD]10,300
RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion+5MoreStories.....UCMCDailyReview
Date:Tue,Mar29,2016at10:02AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT(2)WP(2)
NewYorkTimes
UkraineParliamentApprovesResignationofChiefProsecutor
ByREUTERSMARCH29,2016,4:15A.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory
KIEVTheUkrainianparliamentapprovedonTuesdaytheresignationofGeneralProsecutorViktorShokin,anofficialseenby
theUkraine'sWesternbackersasanobstacletotacklingcorruption.
TheUnitedStateshasrepeatedlycalledfortop-to-bottomreformofthegeneralprosecutor'soffice,whichanti-graftcampaigners
havesaidplaysakeyroleinprotectingvestedinterestsandallowingcorruptpracticestoflourish.
Themotiontoapprovehisresignationpassedwith289votes,comfortablyoverthe226required.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsWritingbyAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyJeremyGaunt)
NewYorkTimes
NewUkraineCoalitionUncertainAfterFatherlandPartyDemurs
KIEVUkraine'sprospectsofforminganewcoalition-vitaltogetIMFloantalksbackontrack-werethrownintofresh
doubtonTuesdayafterYuliaTymoshenkopresseddemandsasthepriceoftakingherFatherlandPartyintoanalliance.
HerremarksdampenedexpectationsofanimminentdealtoendmonthsofpoliticalinfightingthathavethwartedWestern-backed
reformefforts,delayingbillionsofdollarsinforeignloanstopropupthewar-torneconomy.
"Ifwewanttosavethisparliament...thenwehavetooutlinetogether10-15categoricalconditionsthatmustbemetbeforethe
formationofanycoalition,"Tymoshenkosaidinparliament.
Thedemandsincludedscrappingataxonpensionpaymentsandrollingbackenergypricehikes.Thelatterisakeyreform
implementedunderUkraine'sbailoutprogramfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund.
ThestatementsuggestedacoalitionwasfarfromagreeddespiteanannouncementbyPrimeMinisterArsenyYatseniuk'spartyon
MondayofanewalliancewithFatherlandandUkraine'sbiggestfaction,belongingtoPresidentPetroPoroshenko.
Tymoshenko'sFatherlandisthesmallestpartyinparliament,butsupportbyits19lawmakersisenoughtogivethecoalitiona
majoritywhenaddedtothe216MPsfromPoroshenko'sandYatseniuk'sfactions.
Tymoshenko"isdemandingastackofpoliticallawsbevotedonbeforejoiningthecoalition.Everyonehastogobacktothe
drawing-board,"asourceinPoroshenko'sfactionsaid.
Thelackofastablecoalitioncapableofpushingreformsthroughparliamenthasderailedtalksforanew$1.7billionloanfromthe
IMF.TheFundhaswarnedthatpoliticalparalysisisputtingtheentire$17.5billionaidprogramatrisk.
SupportforYatseniukandhisPeople'sFrontpartyhastumbledsincehetookpowerafterthe2013/2014Maidanprotests.
ParliamentarySpeakerVolodymyrGroysman,a38-year-oldformermayorandallyofPoroshenko,hasbeenputforwardasa
replacementprimeminister,butYatseniukhasrefusedtostepdownuntilanewcoalitionagreementissigned.
AntonGerashchenko,alawmakerinYatseniuk'sfaction,saidthethree-partycoalitionhadnotbeenformalized.
"We'repreparedtobackGroysman(forPM),preparedtoapprovethecabinetandthegovernmentprogram.Butthesnagisthere
aren'tanydocumentsaboutthiscoalitionyet,"hetoldReuters.
TheheadofYatseniuk'sparty,MaksymBurbak,saidtheydidnotexpectanyfinalcoalitionagreementbeforenextweek.
MeanwhileparliamentapprovedtheresignationofGeneralProsecutorViktorShokin-anallyofPoroshenko.
WhileShokin'sdeparturewillbewelcomedbyU.S.officialsduringPoroshenko'svisittoWashingtonthisweek,meetingsarelikely
tobeovershadowedbythepoliticalcrisisinKiev.
Failuretoformacoalitioncouldtriggersnapparliamentaryelections,butthereisnocleardeadlineastheresponsibilityforcalling
thevotelieswithPoroshenko.
CriticssayelectionswoulddelayreformsfurtherandboostsupportforpopulistpartieswhoopposetheIMF-backedausterity
measures.
(WritingbyAlessandraPrenticeeditingbyMatthiasWilliamsandRichardBalmforth)
TheWashingtonPost
Ukrainesprosecutorgeneraldismissedamidgovtturmoil
ByAssociatedPressMarch29at5:10AM
MOSCOWUkrainesparliamentonTuesdayacceptedtheresignationoftheprosecutorgeneralwhohasbeenaccusedof
failingtodealwiththecountrysendemiccorruption.
TheparliamentvotedoverwhelminglytodismissViktorShokinwhotendedhisresignationamonthago.Anhourearlier,Shokin
hadfiredhisdeputyareformistprosecutorandmemberoftheteamofformerGeorgianPresidentMikhailSaakashvili,who
servesasgovernoroftheOdessaregion.ThedeputyhadaccusedShokinofmaintainingtieswithcorruptofficialsandlawmakers.
Shokinsperceivedunwillingnesstoclampdownoncorruptionandgoafterthelawmakerssuspectedofmurkydealshascaused
publicoutcryandrepeatedcallsforhisresignationfromUkrainespro-Westernreformistwing.Severalhundredpeoplerallied
outsidetheUkrainianparliamentonMonday,callingfortheprosecutorsresignation.
TestifyingtothedeepdivisionsinsideUkrainesgoverningcoalition,EconomicDevelopmentMinisterAivarasAbromavicius,who
hasbeenoutspokenabouttheroleofcorruptelitesinpolitics,saidonTwitterafterShokinsdismissal:Hallelujah!Finally!
Ukrainesprimeministerisalsounderpressure,andtheparliamentisexpectedtodebateamotiontofirehimlateronTuesday.
WashingtonPost
Kremlin[ED:Putin'sMouthpiecePeskov]:HysteriaoverUkrainepilotblocksaresolution
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/kremlin-hysteria-over-ukraine-pilot-blocks-a-resolution/2016/03/26/d4b30bd8-
f35e-11e5-a2a3-d4e9697917d1_story.html
ByAssociatedPressMarch26
MOSCOWRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsspokesmansayshysteriainUkraineandtheWestoverimprisonedUkrainian
pilotNadiaSavchenkoisinterferingwithresolvinghercourtcase.
DmitryPeskov,inremarksreportedSaturdaybythestatenewsagencyRIANovosti,gavenodetailsonwhatresolutionmeasures
werebeingconsidered.ThereispersistentspeculationthatshecouldbetradedfortwoRussianswhofacetrialinUkraineon
allegationstheywereactive-dutysoldiersworkingwithRussia-backedrebelsineasternUkraine.
Savchenkohasbeensentencedto22yearsinprisonforcallingincoordinatesforshellingthatkilledtwoRussianjournalistsin
easternUkraine.TheUnitedStates,WesternEuropeancountriesandUkrainehavecalledforherrelease.
Peskovsayssuchacasecanberesolvedmuchmoreeasilyandquicklyinquietness.
Date:Tue,Mar29,2016at2:05PM
Subject:10,300RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion
10,300RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion:
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27642055.html
And:SomesixtyRussianandSlavicmercenarieslikelyDIEDincombatinSyria(theywererecruitedby
theprivatecompanyChVK):http://www.svobodea.org/articleprintview/27642396.html

And:TheattemptofKrasnodarFARMERStodrivetheirtractorstoMoscowinamassprotesthas
reportedlybeensuppressedbytheFSB:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/72346.html?print=1
And:USnotinterestedinexchangingSAVCHENKOforRussianarmsdealer[Viktor]
BOUT,themoscowtimes.com,3/29
And:KremlinsaysnotawareofpossibleSavchenkoSWAPforBout,Yaroshenko[sentencedto20
yearsinUSjailonchargesofcocainesmuggling],unian.info,3/29
And:TrumphiresYANUKOVYCHsformerstrategist[PaulManafort],unian.info,3/29
And:GreatBritainconfirmsthatVladimirYakuninssonownsanestateworth35millionpoundsin
London,http://realty.newsru.com/article/21mar2016/yakunin
From:UkraineCrisisMediaCenter<press@uacrisis.org>
Subject:UkraineCrisisMediaCenterdailyupdate:March29,2016
UCMCDAILYUPDATEONDEVELOPMENTSINUKRAINE:PRESS
RELEASES,MEDIAOVERVIEW,INFOGRAPHICS,ANALYSIS
March29,2016
ColonelOleksandrMotuzyanyk:Combatactivitycontinuesnon-stopinsomeareas,militants
shootfrom152-mmartilleryinMayorsk
ThesituationisescalatingintheDonetsksectorintheATOzoneyesterday.Itwascomparativelycalmonly
betweenHorlivkaandYasynuvata.Nevertheless,combatactivitylastednon-stopinseparatesectionsof
thecontactline.MilitantshotatATOtroopspositionsover60timesinthepast24hours.Militantsused
cannonartillery(152-mmcannons).TheincidenttookplaceinMayorsk.Moreover,intensemortarattacks
atATOtroopspositionscontinuedoccupantslaunchedover230mortarshells,whichistherecord
numbersincelastsummer.Svitodarskbulge(Luhanskevillage),theoutskirtsofHorlivka(Zaitseve,
Mayorsk,Leninske)andAvdiivkabecamethemainflashpoint,saidColonelOleksandrMotuzyanyk,
PresidentialAdministrationspokespersononATOrelatedissuesduringapressbriefingatUkraineCrisis
MediaCenter.>>>

InUkraineIamdoingtherightthingintherighttimedismissedDeputyProsecutor
GeneralDavitSakvarelidze
TodayProsecutorGeneralofUkraineViktorShokinfiredhisdeputyDavitSakvarelidze,latertodayShokin
himselfwasdismissedbytheVerkhovnaRada(parliament).Sakvaleridzesaidthatmainreasonforhis
dismissalwasblatantviolationofprosecutorsethics.Iindeedviolatedwhattheprosecutorsethicsisin
theirunderstanding.Itincludestheft,corruptionandteamcover-up.Ihaveviolatedtheethicscodeofa
mafiagroup,saidDavitSakvarelidzeatapress-briefingatUkraineCrisisMediaCenter.>>>
Expert:Socialbenefitsverificationtoallowmoreefficientfundsspendingandhelping
peopleinneed,notfraudsters
Socialbenefitsconstituteslightlyover40percentofthestateexpenditure,whichamountstoUAH368
billionthisyear.Theseincludepensionbenefits,variousformsofsocialsupportandsubsidies.Any
abusivepracticeinthissphere,evencomparativelyinsignificant,willresultinenormouslossoffunds.
Thisisthepurposeofthesocialverificationprocess,i.e.checkupofalltherecipients:dothesepeople
reallyexist,whoaretheyandwhethertheyareentitledtoreceivethesefunds.Thisisamajorreformfor
Ukraine,saidPavloKukhta,expertoftheReanimationPackageofReforms(RPR)atapressbriefingat
UkraineCrisisMediaCenter.>>>
UkrainianInstituteforInternationalPolitics:ThreesouthernregionsofUkrainejointhe
project"LaunchingRegions"
ThreesouthernregionsofUkraine-Kherson,MykolayivandOdesajointheproject"LaunchingRegions".
Thisinitiativecoversseveralareasaimedatdecentralizationreforms,developmentofregionalpolicyand
investmentattractivenessofUkrainiancities.ThiswasstatedbyRostyslavTomenchuk,Directorofthe
UkrainianInstituteforInternationalPolitics,atapressbriefingatUkraineCrisisMediaCenter.Hesaidthat
theprojecthasbeenworkinginKharkiv,Zaporizhia,Dnipropetrovskregionsandgovernment-controlled
partsofLuhanskandDonetskregionsforthethirdmonth.Nextweekitwillstartinthreesouthernregions.
Mr.Tomenchuknotedthatthisprojectprovidesthree-monthworkofregionalimportanceincitieswitha
populationover10,000peopleaswellaswiththenewlyformedunitedcommunities.>>>
UkrainesbestambassadorsabroadaretheyoungstersorganizersofUCMCsproject
Hop,Nederland,Hop!
UkraineCrisisMediaCenterhaslaunchedtheHop,Nederland,Hop!project(Comeon,theNetherlands,
comeon!).IntheframeworkoftheprojectyoungtalentedUkrainianswillvisittheNetherlandsandwilltell
theDutchpeoplewhyUkraineisworthsupportingatthereferendumofApril6*,saidtheauthorofthe
projectidea,co-founderandboardmemberofUkraineCrisisMediaCenterGennadiyKurochkaspeaking
atapressbriefingatUCMC.ThesedaysonemayfindmanyreportsinwhichUkraineispresentedasa
landofwarandofcorruptionthathasnotbeencombatted.OurmainmessageisthatUkraineisfirstofall
ourchildren,theyareourfuture.IftheNetherlandsvotesagainstUkraineitisgoingtobeavoteagainstour
children,againstourfuture,henoted.Theprojecthasawebsite.Motivatingvideosaboutchildrenand
theirsuccessstoriesarecollectedonthewebsite.>>>
MemoryRuntributetoCyborgIhorBranovytskytotakeplaceinPushcha-Vodytsiaon
April3-UkrainianLeadershipAcademy
MemoryRunwilltakeplaceinasuburbancity,nearbyofKyiv,Pushcha-VodytsiaonApril3.Thecharity
eventisorganizedtocommemorateIhorBranovytsky,Cyborg,Ukrainianservicemanwhotookpartinthe
warineasternUkraineandwasdefendingtheDonetskairport.Allthemoneycollectedisplannedto
spendonarrangingthestreetinPushcha-VodytsianamedafterIhorBranovytsky(Yunkerovastreetistobe
renamed).TheorganizersoftheeventaretheUkrainianLeadershipAcademyandtheKMRunningClub.
TheaimoftheMemoryRunistopayrespecttotheheroismandcourageofUkrainianservicemenwhoare
protectingtheirhomelanddailyaswellastocollectfundsrequiredtoarrangethestreet.>>>
ThecenterislocatedinTheUkrainianHouse(2Khreshchatykstreet),2ndfloor.Hotline +380501578159,+38093584
6 6 2 4, e - m a i l press@uacrisis.org. F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n p l e a s e v i s i t uacrisis.org, a n d f o l l o w u s
onTwitter,Facebook,YouTube.
UkraineCrisisMediaCenterisprovidingmediasupportona24/7basistoallthosecoveringeventsinUkraineandrunsa
dailyscheduleoflivepressbriefingsandmoderateddiscussionstotoprovidetheinternationalcommunitywithaccurate
andup-to-dateinformationabouteventsinUkraineandthreatstonationalsecurity,particularlyinthemilitary,political,
economic,energyandhumanitarianspheres.
Copyright2016UkraineCrisisMediaCenter,Allrightsreserved.
Ourmailingaddressis:
UkraineCrisisMediaCenter
UkrainianHouse,2Khreshchatykstreet
Kyiv01001
Ukraine
Senttime: 04/04/201608:45:59AM
FW:[LATESUNNITERUN][JD&PBonVLADBREAKINGBAD---THEPANAMAEPISODE]Fwd:Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2
Subject: billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwasworriedabout!]AllPutinsMen:SecretRecordsRevealMoneyNetwork
TiedtoRus
Sent:Sunday,April03,20168:23PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][JD&PBonVLADBREAKINGBAD---THEPANAMAEPISODE]Fwd:Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2
billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwasworriedabout!]AllPutinsMen:SecretRecordsRevealMoneyNetwork
TiedtoRuss...
Subject:Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwasworried
about!]
Putinandtopcroniesexposed:$2billioninMONEYLAUNDERING[NowweknowwhatPeskovwas
worriedabout!]
See:PANAMAPAPERS:MossackFonsecaLEAKrevealselitestaxhavens,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-35918844
Elevenmilliondocumentswereleakedfromoneoftheworldsmostsecretivecompanies,Panamanianlaw
firmMossackFonseca.TheyshowhowMossackFonsecahashelpedclientslaundermoney,dodge
sanctionsandevadetaxesThedocumentsshowlinksto72currentorformerheadsofstateinthedata,
includingdictatorsaccusedoflootingtheirowncountries.It[thedata]revealsasuspectedbillion-dollar
moneylaunderingringthatwasrunbyaRussianbankandinvolvedcloseassociatesofPresidentPutin.The
operationwasrunbyBankRossiyawhichissubjecttoUSandEUsanctionsfollowingRussiasannexation
ofCrimeaMoneyhasbeenchanneledthroughoffshorecompanies,twoofwhichwereofficiallyowned
byoneoftheRussianpresidentsclosestfriends[SergeiROLDUGIN].ConcertcellistSergeiRodulginhas
knownVladimirPutinsincetheywereteenagersandisgodfathertothepresidentsdaughterMaria.
DocumentsfromMr.Rolduginscompaniesstatethat:ThecompanyisacorporateSCREENestablished
principallytoprotecttheidentityandconfidentialityoftheultimatebeneficialownerofthecompany.
And:NovayaGazetapostsamajorinvestigativepieceontheRolduginaffair:http://krug.novayagazeta.ru/12-
zoloto-partituri

And:SMIraswkrylitainuyuofshornuyuimperiyusaktivamivmilliardydollarov,zakotrooistoyat
DRUZYAPUTINA,http://newsru.com/russia/03apr2016/zeitung_print.html
And:MikhailLESINsstrangedeathinU.S.followsafallfromRussiaswelite,nytimes.com,4/3
And:TheLong-HaulTRUCKERSholdanofficiallysanctionedprotestmeeting(undertheguiseofa
meetingwithelectedlegislaturedeputies)inMoscow:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/mynameisphilipp/1741294-
echo/
Subject:AllPutinsMen:SecretRecordsRevealMoneyNetworkTiedtoRussianLeaderICIJ
GoodsummaryofPutin'skleptocracy'sstashedcash.
http://panamapapers.icij.org/20160403-putin-russia-offshore-network.html
Inthisstory
Accordingtoanalysis,asmuchas$2billionhasbeensecretlyshuffledthroughbanksandshadowcompanieslinked
toPutinsassociates
BankRossiya,identifiedbytheU.S.asPutinspersonalcashbox,hasbeeninstrumentalinbuildinganetworkof
offshorecompanies
Dozensofloans,someworthhundredsofmillionsofdollars,soldbetweenoffshorecompaniesforaslittleas$1or
less
VladimirPutinandSergeyRolduginforgedabondasyoungmen.Fastfriends,almostlikebrothers,they
cruisedthestreetsofLeningrad,singingand,inPutinscase,occasionallygettingintofistfights.
AsPutinrosetopowerasRussiassupremeleaderandRolduginmadeanameforhimselfasaclassical
cellistandconductor,thetworemainedclose.RolduginhasperformedforPutinandhigh-profileguestsat
thepresidentsofficialresidenceandhasgivenmediainterviewsthatsoftenedPutinsfearsomeimage.
Nowaleakofsecretdocumentsrevealsanother,hiddensideoftheirfriendship.
TherecordsshowRolduginisabehind-the-scenesplayerinaclandestinenetworkoperatedbyPutin
associatesthathasshuffledatleast$2billionthroughbanksandoffshorecompanies,aninvestigationby
theInternationalConsortiumofInvestigativeJournalists,GermandailySddeutscheZeitungandother
mediapartnershasfound.
Inthedocuments,Rolduginislistedastheownerofoffshorecompaniesthathaveobtainedpaymentsfrom
othercompaniesworthtensofmillionsofdollars.Acompanylinkedtothecellistalsograbbedsecret
influenceoverRussiaslargesttruckmaker,anothersnaggedabigsliceofRussiasTVadvertisingindustry.
ItspossibleRoldugin,whohaspubliclyclaimednottobeabusinessman,isnotthetruebeneficiaryof
theseriches.Instead,theevidenceinthefilessuggestsRolduginisactingasafrontmanforanetworkof
PutinloyalistsandperhapsforPutinhimself.
Roldugindidnotrespondtodetailedquestions.ReportersfromtheOrganizedCrimeandCorruption
ReportingProject,anICIJpartner,metbrieflywiththemusicianafteraconcertinMoscowlastweek.
Roldugintoldthemheneededmoretimetoreviewthequestionsanddeterminewhathecouldsay.
About100financialdealsrelatedtothenetworkaredescribedintheleakeddocuments.Theyarecomplex.
Paymentsaredisguisedinvariousways.Onpaper,sharesincompaniesareswappedbackandforthina
day.Documentsarebackdated.Questionablefinancialpenaltiesareassessed.Therightstomultimillion-
dollarloansaresoldbetweenoffshorecompaniesfor$1.
Inalmosteveryinstance,theresultisthesame:moneyandpowermovesinthedirectionofthenetwork,to
companiesandpeoplealliedtoPutin.Thenetworkscovertdealsallowedittoreceivemoneyinavarietyof
waysincludinghundredsofmillionsofdollarsinsweetheartloansfromabankcontrolledbytheRussian
government.
ExteriorofPutin'sPalace
inRussia.Photo:RussianWikileaks(CCBY3.0)
TheleakeddocumentscomefromthefilesofMossackFonseca,aPanama-basedlawfirmthatregistered
someoftheRoldugincompaniesandhelpedadministerthenetworksholdingsintheBritishVirginIslands
andotheroffshorehavens.
ForyearstherehavebeenreportsmainlyfromwhistleblowersaboutPutinssecretwealth.Afew
offshorecompanies,apalaceandamegayachthaveallbeensaidtobelongtotheRussianleader.Various
newsorganizationshavealsonotedhowthepeoplearoundPutinhavebecomerich.Yetadetailedpicture
ofthehiddenfinancialaffairsofPutinscirclehasremainedelusive.
Therecordsrevealwhatuntilnowhasmostlybeenthestuffofrumor:howPutinscroniessecretlyconduct
theirbusiness.Thelawfirmsinternalfilesshowhowminionsandproxiescreatedstructurestohideand
movethesecretwealth.Therecordsincludeemailcorrespondence,bankaccountforms,loanagreements,
sharetransactionsandpassportscans.Dates,cashamountsandcontracttermsaredetailed.
Loyaltyandlong-heldrelationshipshelpbindthenetworktogether.ItsafraternityofPutinconfidants.Many
ofthemenwhoseinterestsarereflectedintheleakedfilesarePutincomradeswhosehistorywithhim
tracesbackdecadestoSt.Petersburg,thecityknown,beforethefalloftheSovietUnion,asLeningrad.
ThereisRoldugin,whoisgodfathertoPutinseldestdaughter.ThenthereisYuryKovalchuk,abankerwho
forgedlinkswiththefuturepresidentwhenPutinwasamunicipalofficial,andArkadyRotenberg,a
childhoodchumwhohasbecomeabillionairethroughstate-sponsoredconstructionprojects,oilpipelines
andotherventures.
Manyofthemenlinkedtothenetwork,includingPutin,sharesomethingelseincommonbesideshistory.
TheyareconnectedtotheSt.Petersburg-basedBankRossiya,whichtheU.S.governmenthasidentified
asPutinspersonalcashbox.
ThefilesmakeclearthatBankRossiyabuiltthenetwork.Itsemployeestendedtoit,workingtocreatethe
offshorecompanies,assigningownershiptoRolduginandothersandshepherdingthetransactionsthrough
banksinRussia,CyprusandSwitzerland.
TheeconomicmodelforhowmembersofPutinscirclehavesharedtheprofitsfromthisnetworkwasalso
establishedbackinSt.Petersburg.Inthe1990s,PutinandtheBankRossiyaownerscreatedacooperative
foragatedcommunitywheretheyallhadhouses.Thecooperativekeptabankaccountincommon.Each
couldputmoneyin,andanyonecouldtakeitout.
NowhereintheMossackFonsecafilesisthenameoftheRussianpresident,aformerKGBspymaster,
actuallymentioned.AudiorecordingsandwitnessaccountsshowthatevenwhenPutinsclosestconfidants
privatelydiscusshisfinancialdealings,theyusepseudonymsforhimorsimplygesturetotheheavens
ratherthanutterhisname.
Itsinconceivable,though,thatthenetworkcouldhaveexistedwithouttheknowledgeandsupportofPutin,
saidKarenDawisha,aU.S.politicalscientistwhohaswrittenextensivelyaboutPutinandhisregime.
Hetakeswhathewants,saidDawisha.WhenyouarethepresidentofRussiayoudontneedawritten
contract.Youarethelaw.
AfterreceivingdetailedquestionsfromICIJanditsmediapartners,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskov
denouncedtheforthcomingarticlesinapressconferenceasanattackandaseriesoffibs,accordingto
Russiannewsservices.Peskovreportedlysaidthatthequestionsconcernedoffshorecompaniesanda
largenumberofbusinessmenPutinhadneverseeninhislife.
Denyingsomethingnumeroustimesorcommentingonsomethingthathasnorelationtousisjustsilly,
Peskovtoldreporters.
Tiesoffriendship
ThereisavideoonYouTubeofArkadyRotenberg,aformerjudoinstructorwhobecameabillionairethanks
toPutin.Heisstandingwithagroupofmen.Putinwalkspast,flankedbyhissecuritydetail.Rotenberg
doesntseehimcoming.Withoutbreakingstride,PutinrubsRotenbergshead,mussinghishair,likeone
wouldadogorachild.
Ofallthoseinhisinnercircle,ArkadyandhisbrotherBorisRotenberghaveknownPutinthelongest.Their
friendshipdatestothe1960s,whenasboystheysparredtogetherinamartialartsclub.Thetiesof
friendshipgrewtoencompassbusinessaswell.
TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.governmentissuedsanctionsagainstArkadyRotenbergin2014,in
retaliationforPutinsinvasionofUkraine.TheU.S.alsosanctionedhisbrotherBoris.
TheU.S.TreasurynotedthetwohadamassedenormousamountsofwealthduringtheyearsofPutins
rulefromRussiangovernmentcontracts,includingroughly$7billionfortheSochiOlympicgames.The
sanctionsdocumentcoylydescribedthereasonforthedesignationasactingfororonbehalfofasenior
officialoftheRussianFederation.
In2013,theyearbeforethesanctionswereissued,oneofArkadyRotenbergscompaniesreceived
potentiallylucrativegovernmentcontractstoworkonaproposed$40billionnaturalgaspipelinebetween
RussiaandEurope.Aroundthesametime,threeanonymouscompaniesmadehugepaymentsintothe
Putinnetwork,recordsshow.Twooftheshadowcompanies,andlikelyallthree,werecontrolledbyArkady
Rotenberg,accordingtotheMossackFonsecafiles.
LoansfromtheseRotenbergcompaniestotalingmorethan$231millionappeartohavegonetoaBritish
VirginIslands-basedcompanycalledSunbarnLimited,createdbyamanageratBankRossiya.Theloans
hadnorepaymentschedule.
ArkadyRotenbergdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.
InthecaseoftheRotenbergs,theMossackFonsecadocumentssuggesthiddenbusinessdealingsbetween
Putinandhisoldfriends.WhenitcomestoSergeyRoldugin,thedocumentsinthefilesfalselystatethathe
isnotpoliticallyconnected,obscuringthemusiciansroleinthescheme.
ChristeningofValdimirPutin's
daughterMasha.SergeyRoldugin(farright)wasthegodfather.
TheresnoquestionthatRolduginandPutinareclose.SomepublicationshavecalledhimPutinsbest
friend.Intheearly1980s,RolduginarrangedadoubledateonwhichPutinmethisfuturewife,Lyudmila.
PutinselectedRoldugintobethegodfatherofhisfirstchild,Maria,asacredroleinRussianOrthodox
tradition.AphotoofPutincradlingMaria,besidehiswifeandRoldugincanbereadilyfoundontheInternet.
MossackFonsecaandbankersinSwitzerlandappeartohaveignoredeasilyobtainableevidenceofPutin
andRolduginsbonds.BanksarerequiredbylawinSwitzerlandtodetermineifaccountholdersare
connectedtopoliticianstosafeguardagainstimproperuseoftheaccount.Theindustrytermforthisis
politicallyexposedpersons,orPEPs.
TheMossackFonsecafilescontainanapplicationbyGazprombankSwitzerlandin2014toopenabank
accountforacompanyinRolduginsname.Theformexplicitlyaskedwhethertheownerofthecompany
hadanyrelationtoPEPsorVIPs.
Theanswer:no.
Thebankhadalegalobligationtocheckthesedeclarations,saidMarkPieth,formerheadofthe
organizedcrimesectionoftheSwissjusticeministry.Rolduginis,byhisproximitytoaservingheadof
state,clearlyanexposedperson.
Gazprombankdeclinedtocomment.
InalettertoICIJ,MossackFonsecasaidthefirmhasdulyestablishedpoliciesandprocedurestoidentify
andhandlecasesinvolvingpoliticiansorpeopleassociatedwiththem.Itsaidthecompanyconsideredthose
casestobehighriskandconductsmoreintensechecksandperiodicfollowups.Weconductthorough
duediligenceonallnewandprospectiveclientsthatoftenexceedsinstringencytheexistingrulesand
standardstowhichweandothersarebound.
RolduginsfriendshipwithPutinlikelylandedhimintheexclusiveclubofBankRossiyashareholders.In
2010,aRussiannewsservicedisclosedRolduginownedmorethan3percentofthebank.
ThecellisttoldtheNewYorkTimesin2014thatyearsbackhehadneededmoneyandthatarrangements
weremadetogethimastake.Whathehadtodoforthoseshareswasnotspecified.
ThehistoryofBankRossiyaisallaboutitsshareholdersworkingtogethercooperatively.
Lakeofmoney
YuryKovalchukandPutinturnedtheirattentiontoBankRossiyain1991,whenitslargestshareholderwas
stilltheLeningradCommunistParty.
Atthattime,Putinwasdeputymayorandthepersonresponsibleforattractingforeigninvestorsandforming
public-privatepartnerships.
AfterthefalloftheSovietUnioninDecember1991,Putinsignedthedocumentsbestowingownershipofthe
bankonanewlyformedjointventurecreatedbyKovalchukandothers,accordingtoDawisha,authorof
PutinsKleptocracy:WhoOwnsRussia?
Putinsfunctionwastomakelegalwhatwouldotherwisehavebeenillegal,Dawishasaid.
KovalchukbecamemajorityshareholderandboardchairofthisnewversionofBankRossiya.Whenthe
U.S.governmentsanctionedhimin2014,itdescribedKovalchukasoneofPutinscashiers.
Inthemid-1990s,Kovalchukandafewothershareholdersofthebankowneddachasafewhoursoutside
oftownontheeasternshoreoftheKomsomolskoyeLake.Putinfoundthemoneytobuyaproperty.The
menformedaco-operativesocietytobenefittheeightresidentsoftheirsharedgatedcommunity,which
wascalledcalledOzero(theLake).
TheMossackFonsecafilesshowthatthecommunalprinciplesthatdefinedOzerocontinuedwithBank
Rossiyaanditsparticipantsmorethanadecadelater.
Subject:Fwd:AIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalismtherealreasonwhy......followthemoney[ED:DonandRed
Square.....Jeez!WhatNiceRealEstate]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,mmshevchuk@aol.com,"M.Milanytch"<motriam@earthlink.net>,Nadia
<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,NatalieSonetysky
<nataliapalidwor@yahoo.com>,ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu,a.bryttan@rcn.com,akuchtaruk
<akuchtaruk@personainternet.com>,MariaWalchuk<mlwalchuk@gmail.com>,LiliyaBalkova<liliyabalkova@gmail.com>,"L.
Juzeniw"<lesiajuz@verizon.net>,MaryMulyk<marusiadm@yahoo.com>
From:RomaShuhan<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>
Subject:Fw:AIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalismtherealreasonwhy......followthemoney
Date:April3,2016at5:30:34PMEDT
To:RoksolanaandMichaelLuciw<larmud@gmail.com>,MartaBorowyk<kotsuryk@verizon.net>,Marta
Burachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>,MariannaZajac<mariannaz.cya@gmail.com>,GeorgeShuhan
<george.shuhan@hanenergy.com>,ZirkaVoronka<zirkav@yahoo.com>,LJachnycky<ljach11@gmail.com>,
MarikaTomorug<tomorug@comcast.net>,IJadlicky<ijadlicky@verizon.net>,UlanaZinych
<uzinych@comcast.net>
Reply-To:RomaShuhan<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/follow-trumps-money-to-moscow/
Thephrasefollowthemoneyissupposedtohelpexplainhumanbehavior,especiallyinpolitics.Sowhyhas
DonaldTrumpembracedRussianPresidentVladimirPutin?WhyhashedeniedtheevidenceofPutinskilling
ofRussianjournalistsanddissidents?Asavvybusinessman,Trumpiscertainlynotdumb.Theremustbe
somethingelsetoit.
Reportsdatingbackto1987,duringthetimeoftheoldSovietUnion,revealthatTrumphasbeenseeking
businessinRussiaandattemptingtobuildaRussianTrumpTowerinMoscowandperhapsotherRussian
cities.
Atthisparticulartimeinhistory,withPutinscroniesunderfinancialsanctionsbecauseoftheRussianinvasion
ofUkraine,PutinspraiseforTrumpmaysignalanotherattempttogetthecapitalistsandtheirmoneyback
intoRussia.SuchaploydependsonTrumpandothersrehabilitatingPutinbyclaimingthatheisfighting
terrorisminSyria,notbolsteringalong-timeSoviet/Russianclientstate.Thankstotheeffectivenessofthe
RussiaToday(RT)channel,whichsaturatestheU.S.mediamarket,especiallycabletelevision,Putinisindeed
lookinglikeastatesmanontheworldstage.
TrumpsrelationshipwithRussiagoesfarback.In1987,beforethecollapseoftheSovietUnion,hewas
meetingwithSovietofficialsandnegotiatingthebuildingofluxuryhotelsinMoscowandLeningrad.
AstoryatthetimesaidTrumphadmetSovietAmbassadorYuriDubinin,whomentionedhowmuchhis
daughterhadadmiredtheopulentTrumpTowerinNewYorkCity.ThisledtoaninvitationtoTrumptovisit
theUSSR.ThestorysaidDubininwrotealettertoTrump,whohostedameetingwithSovietofficialsinNew
York.
TheinvitationtoMoscowwasissuedbyIntourist,thegiantSovietin-countrytravelorganizationwhich
operatedallthehotelsforforeignersintheSovietUnion.Intouristwascreatedin1929byJosephStalinand
runbyKGBofficials.Intouristhotelsweredesignedforwealthyforeigners,andvirtuallyalltheIntouristguides
wereKGBinformers.Infact,oneaspectoftheirjobswastherecruitmentofforeigners.
However,TrumpexpressedconcernaboutSovietregulationsonjointventures,whichrequirethattheSoviets
holdacontrolling51percentinterestinsuchprojects.Trumpwantedmajoritycontrol.
Thebook,TheGlobalEmergingMarket:StrategicManagementandEconomics,byVladimirKvint,saidthat
asfarbackas2008,theTrumpOrganizationhadregistereditstrademarksinRussiaintheareasofrealestate
developmentandconstruction.Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,saidinaninterviewatthetimethathisfatherwas
lookingatinvestinginRussiaandChina.ThesewereconsideredtopA-listcountries.DonaldJr.istheexecutive
vicepresidentofDevelopment&AcquisitionsattheTrumpOrganization.
TrumpwasnttheonlybusinessmanwhothoughtthenewRussiawouldprovehospitabletoforeigninvestment.
AmericanbusinessmanBillBrowderrananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapital.OnceaPutin
fan,hethoughtprivatepropertyrightsweregoingtobeprotected.However,hewasdeportedin2005,his
assetsstolen,andhislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandkilled.Browdernowsays,TheRussian
regimeisacriminalregime.WeredealingwithanuclearcountryrunbyabunchofMafiacrooks.Andwehave
toknowthat.
CaseslikethatdidntstopCongressin2012fromvotingforPermanentNormalTradeRelations(PNTR)for
Russia.ItpassedtheSenateby92-4andtheHouseby365-43.Despitetheominoustrends,includingPutins
invasionoftheformerSovietRepublicofGeorgiain2008,bigbusinessthoughtalotofmoneycouldstillbe
madeinRussia.In2013,TrumpwashimselfbackinRussiaholdinghisMissUniversepageant.Ihaveplans
tostartbusinessinRussia,TrumptoldtheRussianmedia.IamcurrentlyintalkswithseveralRussian
companiestobuildaskyscraperonthemodelofTrumpTowerinNewYork.
OneofTrumpscontactswasRussianbillionaireArazAgalarovandhiscompanyCrocusGroup.Heowned
CrocusCityHall,wheretheMissUniversefinalswerebeingheld.Heconfirmedthathiscompany,Crocus
Group,hadbeenparticipatinginrealestatetalkswithTrump.LaterthatyearAgalarovwasgiven
anoutstandingcitizenawardbyVladimirPutinataceremonyheldintheKremlin.HehasbeencalledThe
DonaldTrumpofRussia.
RatherthantreatChinaandRussiaasbusinessopportunities,Trumpsaidinhis2011book,TimeToGet
Tough,thatChinaisnotourfriendandisstealingourjobs,technology,andmilitarycapabilities.Itappears
thatabusinessrelationshipwithChinahadsouredsincethetimeDonaldJr.wasconsideringinvestingthere.
TrumpsattacksonChinahavebeenabighitonthecampaigntrail.
AnalystNevinGussacksaysofTrump,Whilehistradeandimmigrationpolicieswouldstrengthenour
strategicandeconomicposture,hisnaivetandignoranceofRussiaandevenCubaisverydisconcerting.It
appearsthatTrumphasflip-floppedonthequestionofwhetherhewouldinvestincommunistCuba.
AsfarasRussiaisconcerned,theresnotalkinthe2011bookofdoingbusinesswithPutin.ButTrumpsaidthat
heoftenspeakshighlyofPutinbecauseofhisintelligenceandno-nonsenseway.Anintelligenceoperative,
PutinwasintheKGBandranoneoftheKGBssuccessoragencies,theFSB.
Putincertainlyhasano-nonsenseapproachtohisperceivedpoliticalenemies.RussianjournalistAnna
Politkovskayawaspoisoned,miraculouslysurvived,butwasthenlatershotdeadonOctober7,2006,which
happenedtobePutinsbirthday.ShehadbeenwarningabouttheKGBsreturntopowerandwasinvestigating
thecircumstancessurroundingthekidnappingandmurderofhundredsintheBeslanschoolmassacrein
southernRussiain2004.Thisevent,likethe1999Moscowapartmentbombings,wasblamedonIslamistsand
gavePutintheopportunity,orpretext,tofurtherconsolidatehispoweroverthemilitary,theintelligence
agencies,andtheeconomy.Heassumedvirtualdictatorialpowers.
ThepoisoningofPolitkovskayawasahallmarkoftheKGBsno-nonsensewayofdoingbusiness.Laterthat
sameyear,dissidentformerFSBofficerAlexanderLitvinenkowasmurderedbypoisoninginLondon,towhich
hehadfled.Hewrotethebook,BlowingUpMoscow:TheSecretPlottoBringBackKGBTerror,abouttheFSBs
roleinthose1999Moscowapartmentbombings.Hehadalsonamedal-Qaedasnumbertwoman,Aymanal-
Zawahiri,ashavingbeentrainedbytheKGB.
WhileTrumps2011bookdenouncedObamaspanderingtotheRussiansinareaslikesabotagingmissile
defenseforourallies,hesaidPutinhadagrandvision,thecreationofaEurasianUniontoreplacethe
USSR.HesaidPutinwantedtocontroloilsuppliestoallofEurope.Thiswasanimportantinsightintohow
Putinsregimeisnotdefensive,norreactingtotheU.S.andNATO,butisinsteadaggressiveinforeignaffairs
andtryingtodominateitsneighbors.However,ratherthanexplainwhattheRussianswereuptowiththis
grandvision,TrumpwentontosayHatsofftotheRussiansingettingtheirwaywithObama.
OnecanfullyunderstandtakingObamatotaskforgivingintotheRussians.ButpraisingtheRussiansfor
takingadvantageofObamareflectsatraitthatisalltoocommonwithmanyconservatives.Theirdisgustwith
Obamahasblindedthemtothenatureofourenemies,whoexploithisforeignpolicytotheiradvantage.They
somehowthinkPutinisactinginAmericasinterestswhenObamaisnot.Thatsludicrous.
Inhislatestbook,CrippledAmerica:HowtoMakeAmericaGreatAgain,TrumpnotesthatPutinis
outmaneuveringObamaintheMiddleEast.TrumpcallsPutinaleader,incontrasttoObama.Butwhatis
Putinleading?TrumpreferstoIranasRussiasbestfriend,withoutexplainingthesignificanceofitsalliance
withRussia.TrumpalsosaysinhisbookthathedoesntunderstandwhyGermanyandothercountries
watchedimpassivelyasPutinmarchedintoUkraine.
AftertheinvasionofUkraineandtheshoot-downoftheMalaysianplanebyRussian-backedterrorists,
Trumpclaimed,IthinkIbecamemuchricherbecauseIcanunderstandpeopleandreadpeopleandPutinis
notfinished.Putinhasgotalongwaytogo.
Again,weareleftthinkingthatTrumpunderstandstheaggressiveintentionsofVladimirPutin.
Yet,whenTrumpwasaskedaboutthenuclearbalancewithRussiaduringthemostrecentRepublican
presidentialdebate,hedisplayedignoranceofthedecayingnatureoftheU.S.nucleartriad,whichconstitutes
ourabilitytodeterandsurviveaRussiannuclearfirststrike.
Meanwhile,PutinhasjustpresidedoveraceremonyhonoringtheKGBssuccessoragencies,andtheRussia
Today(RT)propagandachannelhasannouncedthegrandopeningofaculturalcenterdedicatedtomass
murdererJosephStalin.
ItlookslikePutinhasoutmaneuveredObamaandTrump.ItisanopeningforTrumpsopponents,especially
SenatorsTedCruz(R-TX)andMarcoRubio(R-FL).Butdotheyhavethecouragetofollowthemoneyand
holdTrumpaccountablefordoingbusinesswithacriminalregimethatthreatensthesurvivaloftheUnited
States?AttheendofthismoneytrailtheymayfindanexplanationofwhyTrumpissoreluctanttoholdPutin
responsibleforhiscrimes.
Abouttheauthor
CliffKincaid
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalismandcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org.Viewthe
completearchivesfromCliffKincaid.
From:TrevorLoudon<trevor.newzeal@gmail.com>
Date:Sun,Apr3,2016at1:28AM
Subject:Re:[AfterBounceBack.....Resent][AQUICKBITOFAVERYLATEFRINITEREAD][JDDDIII]Fwd:
"LUHANSKSEPARATISTrevealshowNadiyaSAVCHENKOfellintorebelhands........[AK/AC/Politico:TimeforUkraineto
PressResetButton]........[VRT]OilTaxesandBigBigProblemsfortheRUEconomy[ED:TLonTrumpPatrol:"trumps-
russia-adviser-carter-page-globalist-entrepreneur-with-ties-to-russian-intelligence-dominated-company"]
HiWalter.Foryourcomment.
http://www.trevorloudon.com/2016/03/trumps-russia-adviser-carter-page-globalist-entrepreneur-with-ties-to-russian-intelligence-
dominated-company/
Regards
Trevor
Senttime: 03/29/201611:05:45AM
FW:10,300RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion:
Subject:
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:10,300RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion:
And:USnotinterestedinexchangingSAVCHENKOforRussianarmsdealer[Viktor]BOUT,
themoscowtimes.com,3/29
From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/28/201602:50:03PM
Subject: Fwd:PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertiger-Spectator
From:AndrewWood<andrewood40@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertiger-Spectator
Date:29March20161:01:44amAEDT
To:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
TakiisaGreeksocialitewhoboastseveryweekintheSpectator.Heisofnoaccountbutfullofopinions.Iknowthis
becauseheisamusingtosomeforbeingridiculous.
SentfrommyiPad
On28Mar2016,at10:38,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:
ThepersonwhosentmethelinktotheSpectatorarticleistheAssistantSecretaryresponsibleforpolicy
formulationonacertaingreatnorthernpower.
From:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertiger-Spectator
Date:28March20168:26:15pmAEDT
To:KevinMagee<mageerk@hotmail.com>
Cc:LouiseHand<louise.hand@dfat.gov.au>,SimonMamouney
<simon.mamouney@dfat.gov.au>,KevinMagee<kevin.magee@dfat.gov.au>,
GaryBMagee<gary.magee@monash.edu>
SowhoisTaki?ItistackytodescribeawetdreamwithPutinasthereferentfrombehind
themaskofapseudonym.
ByTakislogicweshouldaskPutintoacceptthetitleofmonarchofAustraliaandthe
AmericansshouldelectTrumpwhowouldthenbecomeanauthenticauthoritarian.
On28Mar2016,at7:06pm,KevinMagee<mageerk@hotmail.com>
wrote:
ReadPutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertiger-
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/putin-has-shown-the-west-up-as-a-
paper-tiger/
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 03/28/201611:28:12PM
Subject: bort'swriteup(combines2presentations)
YevgeniyaAlbatspresentationatDavidKramer'sroundtableatNEDandatCarnegie,16-17March2016
IncommentsoverthecourseoftwodaystoWashingtonaudiences,oppositioneditorYevgeniyaAlbatsdownplayedthe
notionthatRussiaisadictatorshipandsaidthatherjournalTheNewTimesprovesit.Itperseveresdespitepressure,and
eventheKremlinisasubscriber.CorruptionisendemicinRussia,butpeopleturnittotheiradvantage,asAlbatsherself
hasdoneinsubvertinganinvestigationagainstherjournal.
Theleadership'santi-Americanismisitsmainidea.Itsworldviewisconditionedbythedisproportionatenumberofpeoplein
theleadershipfromthesecurityservices,whoweretrainedtoseetheUSasRussia'slikeliestopponent.Theelites"hired"
Putintorepresentthemandtobringthemthe"goodlife,"includingtravelandassetsabroad.Butsincetheannexationof
Crimea--whichwasopposedbyvariousinsiders,butsupportedbyPatrushevandprobablyKovalchuk--andtheimposition
ofsanctionsPutinnolongerisdeliveringgoodtimes.
TheRussiangoverningsystemisnothingnew.ItissimilartoLatinAmericanmilitary-bureaucraticstructuresfrom
the40's-70's.Atsomepoint,aseconomictroublescontinueandPutinfailstoprovideawayout,interestgroupswill
standupandforceachange.
Insidersareseekingtolegalizetheirgainsthroughtheirchildren,andAlbatsendorseslettingtheinsidersdoso,
becausebyreassuringthemthattheirchildrenwillbeabletocarryon,thecurrentelitecanbeencouragedtostep
down.
AmongPutin'smostinfluentialadvisersAlbatsrepeatedlysingledoutbanking-mediamogulYuriyKovalchuk,
placinghimevenhigherthanSergeyIvanovorArkadiyRotenberg.ThereisarumorthatformerGazprom-Media
headMIkhailLesinwaskilledintheUSoverdebtstoKovalchukandhisbrother.
Putindoesn'thavetoinvadeanywhereelsetopropuphisratings.Itisenoughforhismediamachinetotrashthe
outsideworldandconvinceRussians--fewofwhomtravelabroad--thatthingsareworseeverywhereelse.
________________________________________________________________________
Albats,editoroftheoppositionjournalTheNewTimes(NovoyeVremya),explainedhowshecametobeassociated
primarilywiththejournal.SheusedtobeaprofessorattheHigherSchoolofEconomicsuntilatacertainpointitwas
decidedthatsheshouldn'tbeanywherenearyoungpeople.SheusedtoholdTuesdaynightgatheringsatherhousethat
wereattendedbypeoplesuchastheyoungAlekseyNavalnyyandMashaGaydar.Thegroupwascalled"IAmFree"(
).VladislavSurkovfeltthreatenedbythis,andtheschool'srectorYaroslavKuzminovwastoldbythreeseparate
officialsthatitwasabadideatohavesuchprofessors.Soshelosthertwocourses,andstartedturningherattentiontothe
magazine.
TheNewTimesisstillbeingpublished,withoutcensorship.IthasevenrecentlypublishedtwobigstoriesonPutin's
daughters.Russiaisnotadictatorshipandherjournal'sexistenceprovesthis.Itisstillpossibletoputoutanopposition
journalandAlbatsspeakshermindonherweeklyradioappearancesonEkhoMoskvyradio.TheonlydictatorshipinRussia
istheoneinsideChechnya,runbyRamzanKadyrov.
IrinaLesnevskaya,formerco-ownerofREN-TVusedtopublishTheNewTimes.WhenREN-TVwastakenover
byYuriyKovalchuk'smediaempire,shesoldTheNewTimes.
Atthesametime,Roskomnadzor-theRussian"censor"-hasgivenTheNewTimesits"firstwarning."Thatmeans
thatavoidingasecondwarningwillbedifficult.ThesamethinghappenedtoNovayaGazeta,atwhichpointPutin's
friendSergeyChemezovsteppedin,offeringto"help."AlbatsisfatalisticaboutTheNewTimes'future.
WhatisfunnyisthatTheNewTimesisheavilysubscribedtobythepowersthatbe:thePresident'soffice,the
PresidentialAdministration,thePrimeMinister'soffice,thelegislativeheads-allofthemhavemultiplesubscriptions
toTheNewTimes.Theyactuallyhaveaneedforthealternativeinformationitoffers.
Anti-AmericanismisthenewthemeinRussia:ifthereareanyproblems,blameObama.Andthehardestthingtounderstand
isthatpeoplebelieveit.SixtysevenpercentoftheleadershiparefromthespecialservicesandcametoageintheHigher
SchooloftheKGBorsimilar.Thisisthe"corporation."ThegoverningpatternissimilartothatofLatinAmericanmilitary
juntasfromthe1940'stothe70s.Itdoesn'tmeanthesepeopleareallbad,theeducationstheygotwerethebestinthe
SovietUnion.Buttheeducationimpartedacertainpointofview,includingthattheUSisthe"likelyenemy"(
).Inthisview,EuropeisasatelliteoftheUS.Russiaisseenasaseparatecivilization.ThisiswhyKazakhstan's
presidenthascurtailedcoverageofKazakhstanbyRussianTVheisworriedaboutitseffectsonRussianspeakersin
Kazakhstan.
Corruptionisbadandendemic.ButAlbatsherselfhasbenefitedfrom"corruption."Herofficewassearched,with
investigatorslookingforthesourcesforastory.Theyfiledcharges.MichaelMcFaul,whoatthetimewasseniordirector
forRussiaattheNSC,andwhohappenedtobevisitingtoMoscow,cametoherofficeatherrequest.Theybothknewthat
theofficewasbugged.Thenextdaythecolonelinvestigatingthecasecalledher,andthencametoheroffice.Theyleftthe
officeathisrequesttotalksomewhereelse,awayfromthemicrophones.HeaskedAlbats,"AmIintrouble?"Shesaid,
what??HesaidhewasworriedthattheAmericanswouldputhimontheMagnitskiylist.Hissisterismarriedtoan
AmericanatMITandhewasworriedhewouldn'tbeabletotravel.Thenhecalledafewmonthslaterandsaidthecase
againstTheNewTimeshadbeenclosed.AlbatsclaimedthatthecasehadbeendroppedbecausePresidentObamahad
askedthenPresidentMedvedevtocallitoff.Albatsjokinglywonderedifsheshouldhide,ortrumpet,thefactthatshehad
such"power."
Althoughtheauthoritieslovetotravelabroad,theystillhaveconspiratorialviewsoftheworld.Thisisaspecialcabal
ofpeople.
OneofthemosteffectivethingstheUShaseverdonehasbeentoimposesanctionsforseizingforeignterritory.The
sanctionshaveaccountedfor1-1.5percentofnegativeGDP,whilelowoilpricesaccountforabouttwicethat.Sothey
havehadasignificanteffect.Borrowingcostshaveshotup.PutinandhispeoplewilldotheirbesttobreakEUunityon
sanctions.Russiantaxpayers'moneyisgoingtosupportpeoplelikeMarineLePenandright-wingpartieslikehersasRussia
triestounderminetheEU.Thiscouldleadtoveryunpleasantoutcomes.
Theeliteareaging.Theyarelookingforplacestoputtheirmoneyandpromotetheirchildren.Theywanttobeableto
legalizetheirholdings.Thisoffersa"tool"againsttheelite.Iftheelitefeelscomfortedbytherisingpoweroftheirchildren,
theymightfeelcomfortableaboutwalkingawayfrompower.Albatssaysshewouldtakesuchadeal:letthecurrentelite
feelsecureenoughthattheycanleavepower.
Q-WhoarethepeopleontheinsidethatPutinreallylistensto?
AlbatslistsNikolayPatrushevYuriyKovalchukAleksandrBortnikovIgorSechinSergeyShoygutosomeextent
NOTVladislavSurkov,notArkadiyRotenberg(eventhoughheisacrony),andnotSergeyIvanov.
Q-Isthiscircleconcernedabouttransferoftheirinheritancetotheyoungergeneration,orisitthosefurtheroutwhoare
mostconcerned?
Theseinnerelitesareconcernedaboutwealthtransfer.
Theproblemoflegalizingtheirwealthishuge.IfPutinstepsdown,theycouldlosewhattheyhave.Theyneedthis
moneyinasafeplace.That'stheroletheirchildrenplay.
Q-Doestheinnercirclebelievethatthesituationisreallybad?
Theynowrealizethatoilpriceswillnotbounceback.Asrecentlyaslastyeartheythoughttheywould.Lastyearthe
situationwasreallydangerous,theyappearedonthevergeofarealwar.Nownotsomuch.Economic
considerationsmighthavebeenoneofthereasonsforpullingoutofSyria.Chemezov'sstatementaboutcutting
defenseexpendituresby10percentisverysignificant.
Q-Isthisadangeroustime,asRussiadrawsdowninSyriaandpossiblyUkraineandPutinlosesthenationalistboostthat
thoseundertakingsprovidedhim?Couldhemovesomewhereelse?
Russianeedsbetterindependentpolling.Levada'ssamplesizesarenotbigenough.Wedon'tknowenoughaboutthe
popularmood.AlbatssaysthatshemetwithPAdeputyheadVycheslavVolodinpriortotheMoscowmayoral
electioninSeptember2013andthepollsthatVolodinwasgettingfromthesecurityserviceswereclosertowhatthe
finaloutcomewas.
Putindoesn'tneedforeignadventurestokeephisratingsup.AlbatsforcesherselftowatchKremlinchief
propagandistDmitriyKiseleveverySunday,andtheeventsinSyrialatelyhaven'tbeenthetopofthenews,driving
Putin'spopularity.Otherissuesaretakingtheforefront,andoneoftheseisEurope'ssupposed"collapse."The
messagefromKiselev--whoAlbatsclaimedreportsdirectlytoSergeyIvanov-isthatEuropeisbadnoRussian
shouldwanttotraveltoEurope.AndAlbatspointsoutthatonly4%ofRussiansevertraveltoEurope,sofew
Russiansareeverexposedtothewaythingsreallyare.
ThestatemediaisnowvauntingEuropeanright-wingparties.AlbatssaidthatDonaldTrumpisagifttoRussian
propaganda.Inshort,Putindoesn'tneedawarinSyria,therewillalwaysbesomethingaroundwhichtoconsolidate
popularsupport.
Q-IsthereanyoneontheinsidewhowillstanduptoPutinandtellhimthathisthreatperceptionsarewrong?Becauseit
doesn'tappearthatway.
Nooneknows"who"willstanduptoPutin.Putinrepresentsaconsensusoflike-mindedindividualsanddoesn'tdo
everythinghimself.Heguaranteesstabilityforthem.Hemadeitpossibleforthemtotravel,tokeeptheirassets
abroad.Andthatsituationcontinueduntil18March2014withtheannexationofCrimea.Someofhispeopletriedto
dissuadehim,theytoldhimheshouldpushfora"Kosovo"modelforCrimeainstead.FedorLukyanovwasamong
thosewhoadvocatedthisposition(onbehalfofinsideelites).ButPutindecided-eitheronhisownorwithinput
fromPatrushevandpossiblyKovalchuk-togoforannexation.Someinsidersthenthought,"Thebosshasgonea
littlecuckoo,buthe'sdonesomuchforus."
Astheeconomicpain(ofsanctions,inflation,andotherpressures)dragon,thehistoryofLatinAmerica'sanalogous
politicalsystemsfromthe1940'sthroughthe70'ssuggestthatatacertainpoint,itwillbedecidedthat"enoughis
enough."AlbatssaysshecanenvisiontheintereststhatwouldadvocateforPutintostepdown,butnottheindividual
names.AlbatsspeculatedthatPutinmighthavecometoseeMedvedevassomeonewhocouldfrontforsuch
interests,andthatthismighthaveincentivizedPutintomoveMedvedevoutofthepresidency.
Nooneknowsifeconomictroubleswillbeenoughtoforceactionorifother"triggers"willbeinvolved.Albatssays
oneofthereasonsfordrawingdowninSyriawasthefinancialaspect.Putinwas"hired"bytheelitesforthegood
life,notforthebadlife.
Q-Whatexactlywasthedecisionthatwasmadeon28February2012-toannexCrimea,orjusttodosomething?Anddid
theydecideatthatsamepointtomoveintoeasternUkraine?
Albatsadmitsshedoesn'tknowthedetailsofthedecision.TheKremlinwentcrazyovertheMaydan.Thetakeover
ofCrimeawasabrilliantoperation.TheattempttotakeovereasternUkrainefollowedquicklythereafterandhad
someinitialsuccess.Putin'scallfora"Russkiymir"orRussianWorldwasinitiallytakenseriously,butbylate2015it
wascleartheRussianslackedthemoneyforsuchaproject.
Q-WhataboutMikhailLesin?Mighthehavebeentryingtogethismoneyout?What'sthespeculationsurroundinghis
deathandwhathewasdoingintheUSwhenhedied?
AlbatsistryingtofindoutmoreaboutLesin.Lesinwasa"verybadguy."HecreatedalotofdifficultiesforAlbats.
HeaskedVenediktovtobanAlbatsandShenderovichfromEkhoMoskvy.Hewaskeytorollingbackmedia
freedoms.HewasafoundingfatherofRussiaToday.HewaskeytoshuttingdownallindependentTVstations.
LesinwasclosetoKovalchukandKovalchukisveryclosetoPutin.SomesayKovalchukspeakstoPutinevery
day.AlbatssaysshehearsthatKovalchukwassomeonewhorecommendedtoPutinthatheshouldannexCrimea.
LesinhelpedtakeoverPotanin'smediaempire.Lesin'sGazprom-Mediatookitoverataloss.WhenLesinwas
finallyfiredfromGazprom-MediaheleftfortheUStovisittheWoodrowWilsonCenter.Henevershowedup.He
hadjusthadababygirlwithhisgirlfriend.Whenheturnedupdead,itwasthoughtinMoscowthatLesinwaskilled,
probablyfordebtstotheKovalchukbrothers.AnothertheorywasthathewasintheFBIWitnessProtection
Programandhis"death"hadbeenfaked.Lesin'sson("Lessine")isaHollywoodproducer.AndthewordisthatLesin
wasworried,whenSenWickerraisedquestionsabouthim,thathewouldlosehisassetsinLosAngeles.
Q-Whataboutthedesperationtogetthesanctionslifted?AreeliteswillingtogotoPutinandtellhimwhatheneedstodo?
Isthereanythingthey'rewillingtodotogetsanctionslifted?
Putinisaverysmartguy.Heknewthatthepeopleclosesttohimwouldsuffer,sohecametotheirrescue.Hemade
surethatKovalchukgottransfersfromAlfa.Rotenberg'svillainItalywasseized,soRotenberggotthecontractfor
theKerchstraitbridge.YakuninhadbeentheclosestguytoPutin,yethegotkickedoutwhenhissonappliedfor
Britishcitizenship,becauseloyaltyisthenumberonemostimportantcriterion.
BusinesspeoplearemovingoutsideofRussia.ButtheKremlinisn'tfeelingthesamepressureyet.Popular
mobilizationwillnothappen,butasplitoftheelitesislikely.Thesituationwillchange.
Q-WhataboutNaryshkin?Howinfluentialishe?
NaryshkinisnotaninsiderwithPutin.
Q-What'stheultimategoalinternationally?HastheeconomicsituationchangedRussianleaders'mindsaboutthepolitical
situation?
Thereisnocoherentvisionofwhatthesepeoplewanttodo."MakingRussiagreat"helpsbyprovidinganidea.
Q-ReKadyrov,isheastrengthorvulnerabilitytoPutin?
"Kadyrovkilledmyfriend,"Nemtsov.Heorderedthekilling.DoPatrushevandBortnikovwanthimdead?Yes,
absolutely.Thesesilovikiweren'tevenallowedtoquestionthechiefsuspectRuslanGeremeyev.Bortnikovcan'tdo
anythingaboutKadyrov.ButPutinseesKadyrovasabalance.
Q-WasPutinsurprisedbyNemtsov'smurder?
Isupposehewas,peoplesayso.IhavenoproofaboutPutin'sreaction.Nemtsovsaidsomethingheshouldn'thave
andpaidforit.
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/28/201602:09:43PM
To: Me<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:YevgeniyaAlbatspresentations
From:ChristopherBort<chrisbort@me.com>
Subject:YevgeniyaAlbatspresentations
To:ChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>,ChrisBort<chrisbort@gmail.com>
YevgeniyaAlbatspresentationatDavidKramer'sroundtableatNEDandatCarnegie,16-17March2016
IncommentsoverthecourseoftwodaystoWashingtonaudiences,oppositioneditorYevgeniyaAlbats
downplayedthenotionthatRussiaisadictatorshipandsaidthatherjournalTheNewTimesprovesit.It
perseveresdespitepressure,andeventheKremlinisasubscriber.CorruptionisendemicinRussia,butpeople
turnittotheiradvantage,asAlbatsherselfhasdoneinsubvertinganinvestigationagainstherjournal.
Theleadership'santi-Americanismisitsmainidea.Itsworldviewisconditionedbythedisproportionate
numberofpeopleintheleadershipfromthesecurityservices,whoweretrainedtoseetheUSasRussia's
likeliestopponent.Theelites"hired"Putintorepresentthemandtobringthemthe"goodlife,"including
travelandassetsabroad.ButsincetheannexationofCrimea--whichwasopposedbyvariousinsiders,but
supportedbyPatrushevandprobablyKovalchuk--andtheimpositionofsanctionsPutinnolongeris
deliveringgoodtimes.
TheRussiangoverningsystemisnothingnew.ItissimilartoLatinAmericanmilitary-bureaucratic
structuresfromthe40's-70's.Atsomepoint,aseconomictroublescontinueandPutinfailstoprovide
awayout,interestgroupswillstandupandforceachange.
Insidersareseekingtolegalizetheirgainsthroughtheirchildren,andAlbatsendorseslettingthe
insidersdoso,becausebyreassuringthemthattheirchildrenwillbeabletocarryon,thecurrentelite
canbeencouragedtostepdown.
AmongPutin'smostinfluentialadvisersAlbatsrepeatedlysingledoutbanking-mediamogulYuriy
Kovalchuk,placinghimevenhigherthanSergeyIvanovorArkadiyRotenberg.Thereisarumorthat
formerGazprom-MediaheadMIkhailLesinwaskilledintheUSoverdebtstoKovalchukandhis
brother.
Putindoesn'thavetoinvadeanywhereelsetopropuphisratings.Itisenoughforhismediamachineto
trashtheoutsideworldandconvinceRussians--fewofwhomtravelabroad--thatthingsareworse
everywhereelse.
________________________________________________________________________
Albats,editoroftheoppositionjournalTheNewTimes(NovoyeVremya),explainedhowshecametobeassociated
primarilywiththejournal.SheusedtobeaprofessorattheHigherSchoolofEconomicsuntilatacertainpointitwas
decidedthatsheshouldn'tbeanywherenearyoungpeople.SheusedtoholdTuesdaynightgatheringsatherhouse
thatwereattendedbypeoplesuchastheyoungAlekseyNavalnyyandMashaGaydar.Thegroupwascalled"IAm
Free"().VladislavSurkovfeltthreatenedbythis,andtheschool'srectorYaroslavKuzminovwastold
bythreeseparateofficialsthatitwasabadideatohavesuchprofessors.Soshelosthertwocourses,andstarted
turningherattentiontothemagazine.
TheNewTimesisstillbeingpublished,withoutcensorship.IthasevenrecentlypublishedtwobigstoriesonPutin's
daughters.Russiaisnotadictatorshipandherjournal'sexistenceprovesthis.Itisstillpossibletoputoutan
oppositionjournalandAlbatsspeakshermindonherweeklyradioappearancesonEkhoMoskvyradio.Theonly
dictatorshipinRussiaistheoneinsideChechnya,runbyRamzanKadyrov.
IrinaLesnevskaya,formerco-ownerofREN-TVusedtopublishTheNewTimes.WhenREN-TVwastaken
overbyYuriyKovalchuk'smediaempire,shesoldTheNewTimes.
Atthesametime,Roskomnadzor-theRussian"censor"-hasgivenTheNewTimesits"firstwarning."That
meansthatavoidingasecondwarningwillbedifficult.ThesamethinghappenedtoNovayaGazeta,atwhich
pointPutin'sfriendSergeyChemezovsteppedin,offeringto"help."AlbatsisfatalisticaboutTheNewTimes'
future.
WhatisfunnyisthatTheNewTimesisheavilysubscribedtobythepowersthatbe:thePresident'soffice,the
PresidentialAdministration,thePrimeMinister'soffice,thelegislativeheads-allofthemhavemultiple
subscriptionstoTheNewTimes.Theyactuallyhaveaneedforthealternativeinformationitoffers.
Anti-AmericanismisthenewthemeinRussia:ifthereareanyproblems,blameObama.Andthehardestthingto
understandisthatpeoplebelieveit.Sixtysevenpercentoftheleadershiparefromthespecialservicesandcameto
ageintheHigherSchooloftheKGBorsimilar.Thisisthe"corporation."Thegoverningpatternissimilartothatof
LatinAmericanmilitaryjuntasfromthe1940'stothe70s.Itdoesn'tmeanthesepeopleareallbad,theeducations
theygotwerethebestintheSovietUnion.Buttheeducationimpartedacertainpointofview,includingthattheUSis
the"likelyenemy"().Inthisview,EuropeisasatelliteoftheUS.Russiaisseenasa
separatecivilization.ThisiswhyKazakhstan'spresidenthascurtailedcoverageofKazakhstanbyRussianTVheis
worriedaboutitseffectsonRussianspeakersinKazakhstan.
Corruptionisbadandendemic.ButAlbatsherselfhasbenefitedfrom"corruption."Herofficewassearched,with
investigatorslookingforthesourcesforastory.Theyfiledcharges.MichaelMcFaul,whoatthetimewassenior
directorforRussiaattheNSC,andwhohappenedtobevisitingtoMoscow,cametoherofficeatherrequest.They
bothknewthattheofficewasbugged.Thenextdaythecolonelinvestigatingthecasecalledher,andthencametoher
office.Theylefttheofficeathisrequesttotalksomewhereelse,awayfromthemicrophones.HeaskedAlbats,"Am
Iintrouble?"Shesaid,what??HesaidhewasworriedthattheAmericanswouldputhimontheMagnitskiylist.His
sisterismarriedtoanAmericanatMITandhewasworriedhewouldn'tbeabletotravel.Thenhecalledafew
monthslaterandsaidthecaseagainstTheNewTimeshadbeenclosed.Albatsclaimedthatthecasehadbeen
droppedbecausePresidentObamahadaskedthenPresidentMedvedevtocallitoff.Albatsjokinglywonderedif
sheshouldhide,ortrumpet,thefactthatshehadsuch"power."
Althoughtheauthoritieslovetotravelabroad,theystillhaveconspiratorialviewsoftheworld.Thisisaspecial
cabalofpeople.
OneofthemosteffectivethingstheUShaseverdonehasbeentoimposesanctionsforseizingforeignterritory.The
sanctionshaveaccountedfor1-1.5percentofnegativeGDP,whilelowoilpricesaccountforabouttwicethat.So
theyhavehadasignificanteffect.Borrowingcostshaveshotup.PutinandhispeoplewilldotheirbesttobreakEU
unityonsanctions.Russiantaxpayers'moneyisgoingtosupportpeoplelikeMarineLePenandright-wingparties
likehersasRussiatriestounderminetheEU.Thiscouldleadtoveryunpleasantoutcomes.
Theeliteareaging.Theyarelookingforplacestoputtheirmoneyandpromotetheirchildren.Theywanttobeable
tolegalizetheirholdings.Thisoffersa"tool"againsttheelite.Iftheelitefeelscomfortedbytherisingpoweroftheir
children,theymightfeelcomfortableaboutwalkingawayfrompower.Albatssaysshewouldtakesuchadeal:letthe
currentelitefeelsecureenoughthattheycanleavepower.
Q-WhoarethepeopleontheinsidethatPutinreallylistensto?
AlbatslistsNikolayPatrushevYuriyKovalchukAleksandrBortnikovIgorSechinSergeyShoygutosome
extentNOTVladislavSurkov,notArkadiyRotenberg(eventhoughheisacrony),andnotSergeyIvanov.
Q-Isthiscircleconcernedabouttransferoftheirinheritancetotheyoungergeneration,orisitthosefurtheroutwho
aremostconcerned?
Theseinnerelitesareconcernedaboutwealthtransfer.
Theproblemoflegalizingtheirwealthishuge.IfPutinstepsdown,theycouldlosewhattheyhave.Theyneed
thismoneyinasafeplace.That'stheroletheirchildrenplay.
Q-Doestheinnercirclebelievethatthesituationisreallybad?
Theynowrealizethatoilpriceswillnotbounceback.Asrecentlyaslastyeartheythoughttheywould.Last
yearthesituationwasreallydangerous,theyappearedonthevergeofarealwar.Nownotsomuch.
EconomicconsiderationsmighthavebeenoneofthereasonsforpullingoutofSyria.Chemezov'sstatement
aboutcuttingdefenseexpendituresby10percentisverysignificant.
Q-Isthisadangeroustime,asRussiadrawsdowninSyriaandpossiblyUkraineandPutinlosesthenationalist
boostthatthoseundertakingsprovidedhim?Couldhemovesomewhereelse?
Russianeedsbetterindependentpolling.Levada'ssamplesizesarenotbigenough.Wedon'tknowenough
aboutthepopularmood.AlbatssaysthatshemetwithPAdeputyheadVycheslavVolodinpriortothe
MoscowmayoralelectioninSeptember2013andthepollsthatVolodinwasgettingfromthesecurityservices
wereclosertowhatthefinaloutcomewas.
Putindoesn'tneedforeignadventurestokeephisratingsup.AlbatsforcesherselftowatchKremlinchief
propagandistDmitriyKiseleveverySunday,andtheeventsinSyrialatelyhaven'tbeenthetopofthenews,
drivingPutin'spopularity.Otherissuesaretakingtheforefront,andoneoftheseisEurope'ssupposed
"collapse."ThemessagefromKiselev--whoAlbatsclaimedreportsdirectlytoSergeyIvanov-isthatEurope
isbadnoRussianshouldwanttotraveltoEurope.AndAlbatspointsoutthatonly4%ofRussiansevertravel
toEurope,sofewRussiansareeverexposedtothewaythingsreallyare.
ThestatemediaisnowvauntingEuropeanright-wingparties.AlbatssaidthatDonaldTrumpisagiftto
Russianpropaganda.Inshort,Putindoesn'tneedawarinSyria,therewillalwaysbesomethingaroundwhich
toconsolidatepopularsupport.
Q-IsthereanyoneontheinsidewhowillstanduptoPutinandtellhimthathisthreatperceptionsarewrong?
Becauseitdoesn'tappearthatway.
Nooneknows"who"willstanduptoPutin.Putinrepresentsaconsensusoflike-mindedindividualsand
doesn'tdoeverythinghimself.Heguaranteesstabilityforthem.Hemadeitpossibleforthemtotravel,tokeep
theirassetsabroad.Andthatsituationcontinueduntil18March2014withtheannexationofCrimea.Someof
hispeopletriedtodissuadehim,theytoldhimheshouldpushfora"Kosovo"modelforCrimeainstead.Fedor
Lukyanovwasamongthosewhoadvocatedthisposition(onbehalfofinsideelites).ButPutindecided-either
onhisownorwithinputfromPatrushevandpossiblyKovalchuk-togoforannexation.Someinsidersthen
thought,"Thebosshasgonealittlecuckoo,buthe'sdonesomuchforus."
Astheeconomicpain(ofsanctions,inflation,andotherpressures)dragon,thehistoryofLatinAmerica's
analogouspoliticalsystemsfromthe1940'sthroughthe70'ssuggestthatatacertainpoint,itwillbedecided
that"enoughisenough."AlbatssaysshecanenvisiontheintereststhatwouldadvocateforPutintostepdown,
butnottheindividualnames.AlbatsspeculatedthatPutinmighthavecometoseeMedvedevassomeonewho
couldfrontforsuchinterests,andthatthismighthaveincentivizedPutintomoveMedvedevoutofthe
presidency.
Nooneknowsifeconomictroubleswillbeenoughtoforceactionorifother"triggers"willbeinvolved.Albats
saysoneofthereasonsfordrawingdowninSyriawasthefinancialaspect.Putinwas"hired"bytheelitesfor
thegoodlife,notforthebadlife.
Q-Whatexactlywasthedecisionthatwasmadeon28February2012-toannexCrimea,orjusttodosomething?
AnddidtheydecideatthatsamepointtomoveintoeasternUkraine?
Albatsadmitsshedoesn'tknowthedetailsofthedecision.TheKremlinwentcrazyovertheMaydan.The
takeoverofCrimeawasabrilliantoperation.TheattempttotakeovereasternUkrainefollowedquickly
thereafterandhadsomeinitialsuccess.Putin'scallfora"Russkiymir"orRussianWorldwasinitiallytaken
seriously,butbylate2015itwascleartheRussianslackedthemoneyforsuchaproject.
Q-WhataboutMikhailLesin?Mighthehavebeentryingtogethismoneyout?What'sthespeculationsurrounding
hisdeathandwhathewasdoingintheUSwhenhedied?
AlbatsistryingtofindoutmoreaboutLesin.Lesinwasa"verybadguy."Hecreatedalotofdifficultiesfor
Albats.HeaskedVenediktovtobanAlbatsandShenderovichfromEkhoMoskvy.Hewaskeytorolling
backmediafreedoms.HewasafoundingfatherofRussiaToday.Hewaskeytoshuttingdownall
independentTVstations.
LesinwasclosetoKovalchukandKovalchukisveryclosetoPutin.SomesayKovalchukspeakstoPutin
everyday.AlbatssaysshehearsthatKovalchukwassomeonewhorecommendedtoPutinthatheshould
annexCrimea.LesinhelpedtakeoverPotanin'smediaempire.Lesin'sGazprom-Mediatookitoverataloss.
WhenLesinwasfinallyfiredfromGazprom-MediaheleftfortheUStovisittheWoodrowWilsonCenter.He
nevershowedup.Hehadjusthadababygirlwithhisgirlfriend.Whenheturnedupdead,itwasthoughtin
MoscowthatLesinwaskilled,probablyfordebtstotheKovalchukbrothers.Anothertheorywasthathewas
intheFBIWitnessProtectionProgramandhis"death"hadbeenfaked.Lesin'sson("Lessine")isaHollywood
producer.AndthewordisthatLesinwasworried,whenSenWickerraisedquestionsabouthim,thathe
wouldlosehisassetsinLosAngeles.
Q-Whataboutthedesperationtogetthesanctionslifted?AreeliteswillingtogotoPutinandtellhimwhatheneeds
todo?Isthereanythingthey'rewillingtodotogetsanctionslifted?
Putinisaverysmartguy.Heknewthatthepeopleclosesttohimwouldsuffer,sohecametotheirrescue.He
madesurethatKovalchukgottransfersfromAlfa.Rotenberg'svillainItalywasseized,soRotenberggotthe
contractfortheKerchstraitbridge.YakuninhadbeentheclosestguytoPutin,yethegotkickedoutwhenhis
sonappliedforBritishcitizenship,becauseloyaltyisthenumberonemostimportantcriterion.
BusinesspeoplearemovingoutsideofRussia.ButtheKremlinisn'tfeelingthesamepressureyet.Popular
mobilizationwillnothappen,butasplitoftheelitesislikely.Thesituationwillchange.
Q-WhataboutNaryshkin?Howinfluentialishe?
NaryshkinisnotaninsiderwithPutin.
Q-What'stheultimategoalinternationally?HastheeconomicsituationchangedRussianleaders'mindsaboutthe
politicalsituation?
Thereisnocoherentvisionofwhatthesepeoplewanttodo."MakingRussiagreat"helpsbyprovidingan
idea.
Q-ReKadyrov,isheastrengthorvulnerabilitytoPutin?
"Kadyrovkilledmyfriend,"Nemtsov.Heorderedthekilling.DoPatrushevandBortnikovwanthimdead?
Yes,absolutely.Thesesilovikiweren'tevenallowedtoquestionthechiefsuspectRuslanGeremeyev.
Bortnikovcan'tdoanythingaboutKadyrov.ButPutinseesKadyrovasabalance.
Q-WasPutinsurprisedbyNemtsov'smurder?
Isupposehewas,peoplesayso.IhavenoproofaboutPutin'sreaction.Nemtsovsaidsomethingheshouldn't
haveandpaidforit.
Senttime: 03/29/201612:47:26PM
FW:[THESUMOFALLDIGESTS3-29][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT(2)WP(2)[Sorryifrepeat...butimportant].....[JDDD]10,300Russian
Subject:
TROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion+5MoreStories.....UCMCDailyReview
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[THESUMOFALLDIGESTS3-29][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT(2)WP(2)[Sorryifrepeat...butimportant].....[JDDD]10,300
RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion+5MoreStories.....UCMCDailyReview
Subject:Ukraine:NYT(2)WP(2)
NewYorkTimes
UkraineParliamentApprovesResignationofChiefProsecutor
KIEVTheUkrainianparliamentapprovedonTuesdaytheresignationofGeneralProsecutorViktorShokin,anofficialseenby
theUkraine'sWesternbackersasanobstacletotacklingcorruption.
Themotiontoapprovehisresignationpassedwith289votes,comfortablyoverthe226required.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsWritingbyAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyJeremyGaunt)
NewYorkTimes
NewUkraineCoalitionUncertainAfterFatherlandPartyDemurs
KIEVUkraine'sprospectsofforminganewcoalition-vitaltogetIMFloantalksbackontrack-werethrownintofresh
doubtonTuesdayafterYuliaTymoshenkopresseddemandsasthepriceoftakingherFatherlandPartyintoanalliance.
HerremarksdampenedexpectationsofanimminentdealtoendmonthsofpoliticalinfightingthathavethwartedWestern-backed
reformefforts,delayingbillionsofdollarsinforeignloanstopropupthewar-torneconomy.
"Ifwewanttosavethisparliament...thenwehavetooutlinetogether10-15categoricalconditionsthatmustbemetbeforethe
formationofanycoalition,"Tymoshenkosaidinparliament.
Thedemandsincludedscrappingataxonpensionpaymentsandrollingbackenergypricehikes.Thelatterisakeyreform
implementedunderUkraine'sbailoutprogramfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund.
ThestatementsuggestedacoalitionwasfarfromagreeddespiteanannouncementbyPrimeMinisterArsenyYatseniuk'spartyon
MondayofanewalliancewithFatherlandandUkraine'sbiggestfaction,belongingtoPresidentPetroPoroshenko.
Tymoshenko'sFatherlandisthesmallestpartyinparliament,butsupportbyits19lawmakersisenoughtogivethecoalitiona
majoritywhenaddedtothe216MPsfromPoroshenko'sandYatseniuk'sfactions.
Tymoshenko"isdemandingastackofpoliticallawsbevotedonbeforejoiningthecoalition.Everyonehastogobacktothe
drawing-board,"asourceinPoroshenko'sfactionsaid.
Thelackofastablecoalitioncapableofpushingreformsthroughparliamenthasderailedtalksforanew$1.7billionloanfromthe
IMF.TheFundhaswarnedthatpoliticalparalysisisputtingtheentire$17.5billionaidprogramatrisk.
SupportforYatseniukandhisPeople'sFrontpartyhastumbledsincehetookpowerafterthe2013/2014Maidanprotests.
ParliamentarySpeakerVolodymyrGroysman,a38-year-oldformermayorandallyofPoroshenko,hasbeenputforwardasa
replacementprimeminister,butYatseniukhasrefusedtostepdownuntilanewcoalitionagreementissigned.
AntonGerashchenko,alawmakerinYatseniuk'sfaction,saidthethree-partycoalitionhadnotbeenformalized.
"We'repreparedtobackGroysman(forPM),preparedtoapprovethecabinetandthegovernmentprogram.Butthesnagisthere
aren'tanydocumentsaboutthiscoalitionyet,"hetoldReuters.
TheheadofYatseniuk'sparty,MaksymBurbak,saidtheydidnotexpectanyfinalcoalitionagreementbeforenextweek.
MeanwhileparliamentapprovedtheresignationofGeneralProsecutorViktorShokin-anallyofPoroshenko.
WhileShokin'sdeparturewillbewelcomedbyU.S.officialsduringPoroshenko'svisittoWashingtonthisweek,meetingsarelikely
tobeovershadowedbythepoliticalcrisisinKiev.
Failuretoformacoalitioncouldtriggersnapparliamentaryelections,butthereisnocleardeadlineastheresponsibilityforcalling
thevotelieswithPoroshenko.
CriticssayelectionswoulddelayreformsfurtherandboostsupportforpopulistpartieswhoopposetheIMF-backedausterity
measures.
(WritingbyAlessandraPrenticeeditingbyMatthiasWilliamsandRichardBalmforth)
TheWashingtonPost
Ukrainesprosecutorgeneraldismissedamidgovtturmoil
ByAssociatedPressMarch29at5:10AM
MOSCOWUkrainesparliamentonTuesdayacceptedtheresignationoftheprosecutorgeneralwhohasbeenaccusedof
failingtodealwiththecountrysendemiccorruption.
TheparliamentvotedoverwhelminglytodismissViktorShokinwhotendedhisresignationamonthago.Anhourearlier,Shokin
hadfiredhisdeputyareformistprosecutorandmemberoftheteamofformerGeorgianPresidentMikhailSaakashvili,who
servesasgovernoroftheOdessaregion.ThedeputyhadaccusedShokinofmaintainingtieswithcorruptofficialsandlawmakers.
Shokinsperceivedunwillingnesstoclampdownoncorruptionandgoafterthelawmakerssuspectedofmurkydealshascaused
publicoutcryandrepeatedcallsforhisresignationfromUkrainespro-Westernreformistwing.Severalhundredpeoplerallied
outsidetheUkrainianparliamentonMonday,callingfortheprosecutorsresignation.
TestifyingtothedeepdivisionsinsideUkrainesgoverningcoalition,EconomicDevelopmentMinisterAivarasAbromavicius,who
hasbeenoutspokenabouttheroleofcorruptelitesinpolitics,saidonTwitterafterShokinsdismissal:Hallelujah!Finally!
Ukrainesprimeministerisalsounderpressure,andtheparliamentisexpectedtodebateamotiontofirehimlateronTuesday.
WashingtonPost
Kremlin[ED:Putin'sMouthpiecePeskov]:HysteriaoverUkrainepilotblocksaresolution
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/kremlin-hysteria-over-ukraine-pilot-blocks-a-resolution/2016/03/26/d4b30bd8-
f35e-11e5-a2a3-d4e9697917d1_story.html
ByAssociatedPressMarch26
MOSCOWRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsspokesmansayshysteriainUkraineandtheWestoverimprisonedUkrainian
pilotNadiaSavchenkoisinterferingwithresolvinghercourtcase.
DmitryPeskov,inremarksreportedSaturdaybythestatenewsagencyRIANovosti,gavenodetailsonwhatresolutionmeasures
werebeingconsidered.ThereispersistentspeculationthatshecouldbetradedfortwoRussianswhofacetrialinUkraineon
allegationstheywereactive-dutysoldiersworkingwithRussia-backedrebelsineasternUkraine.
Savchenkohasbeensentencedto22yearsinprisonforcallingincoordinatesforshellingthatkilledtwoRussianjournalistsin
easternUkraine.TheUnitedStates,WesternEuropeancountriesandUkrainehavecalledforherrelease.
Peskovsayssuchacasecanberesolvedmuchmoreeasilyandquicklyinquietness.
Subject:10,300RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion
10,300RussianTROOPSlikelyservedinSYRIAduringthesixmonthperiodoftheincursion:

And:USnotinterestedinexchangingSAVCHENKOforRussianarmsdealer[Viktor]
BOUT,themoscowtimes.com,3/29
From:UkraineCrisisMediaCenter<press@uacrisis.org>
Subject:UkraineCrisisMediaCenterdailyupdate:March29,2016
UCMCDAILYUPDATEONDEVELOPMENTSINUKRAINE:PRESS
RELEASES,MEDIAOVERVIEW,INFOGRAPHICS,ANALYSIS
March29,2016
ColonelOleksandrMotuzyanyk:Combatactivitycontinuesnon-stopinsomeareas,militants
shootfrom152-mmartilleryinMayorsk
ThesituationisescalatingintheDonetsksectorintheATOzoneyesterday.Itwascomparativelycalmonly
betweenHorlivkaandYasynuvata.Nevertheless,combatactivitylastednon-stopinseparatesectionsof
thecontactline.MilitantshotatATOtroopspositionsover60timesinthepast24hours.Militantsused
cannonartillery(152-mmcannons).TheincidenttookplaceinMayorsk.Moreover,intensemortarattacks
atATOtroopspositionscontinuedoccupantslaunchedover230mortarshells,whichistherecord
numbersincelastsummer.Svitodarskbulge(Luhanskevillage),theoutskirtsofHorlivka(Zaitseve,
Mayorsk,Leninske)andAvdiivkabecamethemainflashpoint,saidColonelOleksandrMotuzyanyk,
PresidentialAdministrationspokespersononATOrelatedissuesduringapressbriefingatUkraineCrisis
MediaCenter.>>>

InUkraineIamdoingtherightthingintherighttimedismissedDeputyProsecutor
GeneralDavitSakvarelidze
TodayProsecutorGeneralofUkraineViktorShokinfiredhisdeputyDavitSakvarelidze,latertodayShokin
himselfwasdismissedbytheVerkhovnaRada(parliament).Sakvaleridzesaidthatmainreasonforhis
dismissalwasblatantviolationofprosecutorsethics.Iindeedviolatedwhattheprosecutorsethicsisin
theirunderstanding.Itincludestheft,corruptionandteamcover-up.Ihaveviolatedtheethicscodeofa
mafiagroup,saidDavitSakvarelidzeatapress-briefingatUkraineCrisisMediaCenter.>>>
Expert:Socialbenefitsverificationtoallowmoreefficientfundsspendingandhelping
peopleinneed,notfraudsters
Socialbenefitsconstituteslightlyover40percentofthestateexpenditure,whichamountstoUAH368
billionthisyear.Theseincludepensionbenefits,variousformsofsocialsupportandsubsidies.Any
abusivepracticeinthissphere,evencomparativelyinsignificant,willresultinenormouslossoffunds.
Thisisthepurposeofthesocialverificationprocess,i.e.checkupofalltherecipients:dothesepeople
reallyexist,whoaretheyandwhethertheyareentitledtoreceivethesefunds.Thisisamajorreformfor
Ukraine,saidPavloKukhta,expertoftheReanimationPackageofReforms(RPR)atapressbriefingat
UkraineCrisisMediaCenter.>>>
UkrainianInstituteforInternationalPolitics:ThreesouthernregionsofUkrainejointhe
project"LaunchingRegions"
ThreesouthernregionsofUkraine-Kherson,MykolayivandOdesajointheproject"LaunchingRegions".
Thisinitiativecoversseveralareasaimedatdecentralizationreforms,developmentofregionalpolicyand
investmentattractivenessofUkrainiancities.ThiswasstatedbyRostyslavTomenchuk,Directorofthe
UkrainianInstituteforInternationalPolitics,atapressbriefingatUkraineCrisisMediaCenter.Hesaidthat
theprojecthasbeenworkinginKharkiv,Zaporizhia,Dnipropetrovskregionsandgovernment-controlled
partsofLuhanskandDonetskregionsforthethirdmonth.Nextweekitwillstartinthreesouthernregions.
Mr.Tomenchuknotedthatthisprojectprovidesthree-monthworkofregionalimportanceincitieswitha
populationover10,000peopleaswellaswiththenewlyformedunitedcommunities.>>>
UkrainesbestambassadorsabroadaretheyoungstersorganizersofUCMCsproject
Hop,Nederland,Hop!
UkraineCrisisMediaCenterhaslaunchedtheHop,Nederland,Hop!project(Comeon,theNetherlands,
comeon!).IntheframeworkoftheprojectyoungtalentedUkrainianswillvisittheNetherlandsandwilltell
theDutchpeoplewhyUkraineisworthsupportingatthereferendumofApril6*,saidtheauthorofthe
projectidea,co-founderandboardmemberofUkraineCrisisMediaCenterGennadiyKurochkaspeaking
atapressbriefingatUCMC.ThesedaysonemayfindmanyreportsinwhichUkraineispresentedasa
landofwarandofcorruptionthathasnotbeencombatted.OurmainmessageisthatUkraineisfirstofall
ourchildren,theyareourfuture.IftheNetherlandsvotesagainstUkraineitisgoingtobeavoteagainstour
children,againstourfuture,henoted.Theprojecthasawebsite.Motivatingvideosaboutchildrenand
theirsuccessstoriesarecollectedonthewebsite.>>>
MemoryRuntributetoCyborgIhorBranovytskytotakeplaceinPushcha-Vodytsiaon
April3-UkrainianLeadershipAcademy
MemoryRunwilltakeplaceinasuburbancity,nearbyofKyiv,Pushcha-VodytsiaonApril3.Thecharity
eventisorganizedtocommemorateIhorBranovytsky,Cyborg,Ukrainianservicemanwhotookpartinthe
warineasternUkraineandwasdefendingtheDonetskairport.Allthemoneycollectedisplannedto
spendonarrangingthestreetinPushcha-VodytsianamedafterIhorBranovytsky(Yunkerovastreetistobe
renamed).TheorganizersoftheeventaretheUkrainianLeadershipAcademyandtheKMRunningClub.
TheaimoftheMemoryRunistopayrespecttotheheroismandcourageofUkrainianservicemenwhoare
protectingtheirhomelanddailyaswellastocollectfundsrequiredtoarrangethestreet.>>>
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Senttime: 03/28/201612:07:08PM
To: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertigerTheSpectator
Thisallratherpathetic.
IamreliablyinformedthattheRussianmediaddtrumpetmissionaccomplishedw/oirony.
JustwhathasPutinwon?CrimeaisanalbatrosstheDonbasadeadendSyriaisnotresolved.
OnMar28,2016,at6:55AM,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:
AformereditoroftheAustralianeditionofTheSpectator,oneTomSwitzer,isanothereffusiveadmirerofPutin.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/putin-has-shown-the-west-up-as-a-paper-tiger/
PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertiger
On17November1813,MarshalNey,thebravestofthebrave,hadbeenthelasttomarchoutof
Smolenskamidharrowingscenes.Thehospitalwards,thecorridorsandthestairswerefullofthedead
anddying.NapoleonhadgoneintoRussiatheyearbeforewith500,000menandwasnowleavingwith
fewerthan40,000.Neyhadonly6,000underhiscommandbutwasdeterminednottofallintoRussian
hands.TheRussiancommanderMiloradovichhadalreadyfailedtocapturePrinceEugene,Naposson-
in-law,andthegreatDavout,sohesethisheartoncapturingthe43-year-oldsonofabarrel-maker
fromLorraine.
Neydidwhatheknewbest.Hecharged.ThefirstfrontalattackfailedatthelastmomentastheFrench
rankswererakedwithcanistershot.Ney,leadingthegroup,reassembledandchargedagain.Whole
ranksfell,onlytobereplacedbythenextonescominguptodieinthesameplace,wroteaRussian
officer.WhenGeneralMiloradovichsawhowtheFrenchwerecharging,heexclaimed,Bravo,bravo,
MonsieurslesFranais,youhaveattackedwithastonishingvigour,anentirecorpswithahandfulof
men.Itisimpossibletobebraver!Hethenorderedhisgunnerstocutthemdown,whichtheydid.
AsatWaterlootwoyearslater,whereNeyhadfourhorsesshotdownfromunderhim,theMarshal
survivedtheSmolenskbattleandtheensuingtraptocapturehimbyswimmingforit.TheRussians
were,howshouldIputit,magnificentintheircrueltyinslowlystranglingNapoleonsmen,watching
themfreezetodeath,relievingthemoftheirfursandbooty,withthefat,lazyKutuzovlettingmother
naturetakecareoftheinvaders.ThelatterhadbeenatfirstsurprisedatthestubbornnessoftheRussian
defenders,aswellasbythealmostspiritualmannerinwhichthesoldiersreadiedthemselvesforbattle.
(TheFrenchwereralliedbyapictureoftheKingofRome,theRusskiesbythemiraculousiconofthe
VirginofSmolensk.)TheCossacks,whosecrueltyhadeventhebravestoftheiradversariestremblingin
casetheywerecapturedalive,harriedtheretreatingFrench,neverengaging,justinflictingpinpricks,a
sortofslowtortureneverexperiencedbeforeorsince.KutuzovstacticsofneverengagingNapoleon
droveTsarAlexandernuts,buttheoldboyknewwhathewasdoing.HefearedacorneredNapoleon
becauseheknewtheCorsicanwasabettergeneralthanhim,andoncedesperate,anythingcould
happen.
IvejustrereadAdamZamoyskismagnificent1812,whichIreadwhenitfirstappearedtenyearsago.
Icannevergetenoughofit.Thecourage,theglory,thesuffering,itsalltoomuch.GermansandPoles,
FrenchmenandRussians,Italians,allcoveredthemselveswithglory.Theonlydisgrace,asfarasIm
concerned,tookplaceoneyearlaterattheCongressofVienna,wherePrincessKatyaBagration,
widowoftheheroofBorodino,fellintobedwithMetternich.BagrationbledtodeathatBorodino
becauseherefusedtogetoffhismountinfullviewofhismen.Hiswidowshouldhavehonouredhim
andrefusedthehandsomeAustrian.Butsucharethefolliesofbeautifulwomen.
Mindyou,Naponeverwonanythingimportantagain.MotherRussiahaddefeatedhimasitdefeated
Hitler130yearslater.Whichbringsmetothepresent.UnliketheclownsoftheEUandthebungling
Americans,UncleVladdidaKutuzov,wentintoSyria,avoidedtherisksofgettingboggeddownand,
havinglostonlyoneaircraftthatwasshotdownbyaNatopowersupposedlyonhisside,departedthe
quagmirewithmaximumresults.
YetthatfoolofaForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondneverhaveIseenamanwholooksmorelikea
boringaccountantwarnsusnottocheerbecauseitwouldbelikepraisingamanwhostopped
beatinghiswife.Well,Idontbeatwomeningeneralandmywifeinparticular,soIwouldntknow.
WhatIdoknowisthatPutinisauthenticandauthoritarian,thetypewhowinswars,aspontaneousand
courageousleaderwhohasshownuptheWestasapapertiger.Letsfaceit.Whenwasthelasttimea
worldleaderdidsomethingreallybold?Andhedidntdeclaremissionaccomplished,adeclarationthat
hasprovedfatalinthecaseofIraqandLibya.ThisisthemantheclownsinBrusselstriedtobluffwith
Circe-likesongstoUkraine,sohetookbackCrimeaasabonus.HisstandingbyAssadhasshownup
UncleSamyetagainasanunreliableallywhenthegoinggetstough.
NomatterhowhardtheAmericansandEuropeanshavetriedtoshowRussiaasabustedflush,the
jokesonthem.Andbyleavingtheplayingfield,VladhasfiredashotacrossAssadsbow,warninghim
tonegotiateorelse.JustcomparePutinsstanceinSyriawiththatofUncleSaminYemen.Thelatteris
ahumanitariandisasterthatrivalsthatofSyria.TheSaudi,QatariandUAEairforceshavebombarded
unarmedpeopleandblownuphospitalsinafutileefforttobeatbacktheHouthis,Shiite-backedrebels
whohaverunringsaroundthem.SaudipilotsunderAmericanradarguidancearesoscaredofanti-
aircraftfirethattheyflymuchtoohighandareunabletohitlegitimatetargets.Saudikeepsbuying
expensiveweaponsbutcannotproducemenlikethosewhofoughtbackin1812.Perhapstheyshould
readZamoyskiandforgethightech.
Senttime: 03/28/201612:07:08PM
To: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertigerTheSpectator
Thisallratherpathetic.
IamreliablyinformedthattheRussianmediaddtrumpetmissionaccomplishedw/oirony.
JustwhathasPutinwon?CrimeaisanalbatrosstheDonbasadeadendSyriaisnotresolved.
OnMar28,2016,at6:55AM,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:
AformereditoroftheAustralianeditionofTheSpectator,oneTomSwitzer,isanothereffusiveadmirerofPutin.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/putin-has-shown-the-west-up-as-a-paper-tiger/
PutinhasshowntheWestupasapapertiger
On17November1813,MarshalNey,thebravestofthebrave,hadbeenthelasttomarchoutof
Smolenskamidharrowingscenes.Thehospitalwards,thecorridorsandthestairswerefullofthedead
anddying.NapoleonhadgoneintoRussiatheyearbeforewith500,000menandwasnowleavingwith
fewerthan40,000.Neyhadonly6,000underhiscommandbutwasdeterminednottofallintoRussian
hands.TheRussiancommanderMiloradovichhadalreadyfailedtocapturePrinceEugene,Naposson-
in-law,andthegreatDavout,sohesethisheartoncapturingthe43-year-oldsonofabarrel-maker
fromLorraine.
Neydidwhatheknewbest.Hecharged.ThefirstfrontalattackfailedatthelastmomentastheFrench
rankswererakedwithcanistershot.Ney,leadingthegroup,reassembledandchargedagain.Whole
ranksfell,onlytobereplacedbythenextonescominguptodieinthesameplace,wroteaRussian
officer.WhenGeneralMiloradovichsawhowtheFrenchwerecharging,heexclaimed,Bravo,bravo,
MonsieurslesFranais,youhaveattackedwithastonishingvigour,anentirecorpswithahandfulof
men.Itisimpossibletobebraver!Hethenorderedhisgunnerstocutthemdown,whichtheydid.
AsatWaterlootwoyearslater,whereNeyhadfourhorsesshotdownfromunderhim,theMarshal
survivedtheSmolenskbattleandtheensuingtraptocapturehimbyswimmingforit.TheRussians
were,howshouldIputit,magnificentintheircrueltyinslowlystranglingNapoleonsmen,watching
themfreezetodeath,relievingthemoftheirfursandbooty,withthefat,lazyKutuzovlettingmother
naturetakecareoftheinvaders.ThelatterhadbeenatfirstsurprisedatthestubbornnessoftheRussian
defenders,aswellasbythealmostspiritualmannerinwhichthesoldiersreadiedthemselvesforbattle.
(TheFrenchwereralliedbyapictureoftheKingofRome,theRusskiesbythemiraculousiconofthe
VirginofSmolensk.)TheCossacks,whosecrueltyhadeventhebravestoftheiradversariestremblingin
casetheywerecapturedalive,harriedtheretreatingFrench,neverengaging,justinflictingpinpricks,a
sortofslowtortureneverexperiencedbeforeorsince.KutuzovstacticsofneverengagingNapoleon
droveTsarAlexandernuts,buttheoldboyknewwhathewasdoing.HefearedacorneredNapoleon
becauseheknewtheCorsicanwasabettergeneralthanhim,andoncedesperate,anythingcould
happen.
IvejustrereadAdamZamoyskismagnificent1812,whichIreadwhenitfirstappearedtenyearsago.
Icannevergetenoughofit.Thecourage,theglory,thesuffering,itsalltoomuch.GermansandPoles,
FrenchmenandRussians,Italians,allcoveredthemselveswithglory.Theonlydisgrace,asfarasIm
concerned,tookplaceoneyearlaterattheCongressofVienna,wherePrincessKatyaBagration,
widowoftheheroofBorodino,fellintobedwithMetternich.BagrationbledtodeathatBorodino
becauseherefusedtogetoffhismountinfullviewofhismen.Hiswidowshouldhavehonouredhim
andrefusedthehandsomeAustrian.Butsucharethefolliesofbeautifulwomen.
Mindyou,Naponeverwonanythingimportantagain.MotherRussiahaddefeatedhimasitdefeated
Hitler130yearslater.Whichbringsmetothepresent.UnliketheclownsoftheEUandthebungling
Americans,UncleVladdidaKutuzov,wentintoSyria,avoidedtherisksofgettingboggeddownand,
havinglostonlyoneaircraftthatwasshotdownbyaNatopowersupposedlyonhisside,departedthe
quagmirewithmaximumresults.
YetthatfoolofaForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondneverhaveIseenamanwholooksmorelikea
boringaccountantwarnsusnottocheerbecauseitwouldbelikepraisingamanwhostopped
beatinghiswife.Well,Idontbeatwomeningeneralandmywifeinparticular,soIwouldntknow.
WhatIdoknowisthatPutinisauthenticandauthoritarian,thetypewhowinswars,aspontaneousand
courageousleaderwhohasshownuptheWestasapapertiger.Letsfaceit.Whenwasthelasttimea
worldleaderdidsomethingreallybold?Andhedidntdeclaremissionaccomplished,adeclarationthat
hasprovedfatalinthecaseofIraqandLibya.ThisisthemantheclownsinBrusselstriedtobluffwith
Circe-likesongstoUkraine,sohetookbackCrimeaasabonus.HisstandingbyAssadhasshownup
UncleSamyetagainasanunreliableallywhenthegoinggetstough.
NomatterhowhardtheAmericansandEuropeanshavetriedtoshowRussiaasabustedflush,the
jokesonthem.Andbyleavingtheplayingfield,VladhasfiredashotacrossAssadsbow,warninghim
tonegotiateorelse.JustcomparePutinsstanceinSyriawiththatofUncleSaminYemen.Thelatteris
ahumanitariandisasterthatrivalsthatofSyria.TheSaudi,QatariandUAEairforceshavebombarded
unarmedpeopleandblownuphospitalsinafutileefforttobeatbacktheHouthis,Shiite-backedrebels
whohaverunringsaroundthem.SaudipilotsunderAmericanradarguidancearesoscaredofanti-
aircraftfirethattheyflymuchtoohighandareunabletohitlegitimatetargets.Saudikeepsbuying
expensiveweaponsbutcannotproducemenlikethosewhofoughtbackin1812.Perhapstheyshould
readZamoyskiandforgethightech.
Senttime: 03/28/201610:16:54AM
FW:RussianFARMERSfromninedistrrictsofKRANODARKRAItodaybegandrivingtheirtractorstoMoscowinaprotestaction:
Subject:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/72407.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,March28,201610:17AM
Subject:RussianFARMERSfromninedistrrictsofKRANODARKRAItodaybegandrivingtheirtractorstoMoscowinaprotestaction:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/72407.html
FarmerVasiliiMelnichenko:ItappearsthatRussiaisintheprocessofreturningtoSERFDOM.
And:PutinfacesINFORMATIONATTACKonwealth,friends,Russiasays,Bloomberg.com,3/28
TheInternationalConsortiumofInvestigativejournalistsisseekingcommentondozensofquestions
concerningPutinpersonallyaswellasinformationabouthisfamily,childhoodfriends,andbusiness
alliesincludingYuriKovalchukandArkadyRotenberg,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovtold
reportersonaconferencecallMonday.
And:InRussia,anoutspokenpriest[ArchpreistVsevolodCHAPLIN]fallsfromgrace,
http://www.erferl.org/articleprintvew/27639946.html
IninterviewsonMarch4andMarch15,he[Chaplin]accusedKIRILLofnotstandinguptothe
authorities,suggestingthatthepatriarchisimbuedwiththeSovietcultureofCOLLUSIONbetween
stateandchurchwiththeformerfirmlyincontrol.
And:[Ella]PAMFILOVA[newheadoftheRussianCentralElectionCommission]hasannounced
cardinalchanges,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1701790.html?print=1
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKIIonthenuclearpokerbeingconductedbyPutinandGeneralNikolai
PATRUSHEV:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27633151.html
And:FormerCIAchief[Michael]Hayden:ClintonisbetterpreparedthanincoherentTrump,
politico.edu,3/28
And:HistorianAndreiZUBOVisacandidateinthe2016Dumaelections:
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27638205.html
Senttime: 03/27/201607:07:18AM
Subject: Bershidskiy--ThisElection'sBigQuestion:WhatMakesAmericaGreat?-BloombergView
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-21/this-election-s-big-question-what-makes-america-great
ThisElection'sBigQuestion:WhatMakes
AmericaGreat?
Intwomonthsontheroadcoveringthe2016presidentialprimaries,I'veseentheU.S.goingthroughsomethingofan
identitycrisis,afterdecadesofdominance.Thecandidatesaretalkingaboutwhatthevotersarethinkingabout:Whatdoesit
meanforAmericatobegreat?
Toatraveler,America'sgreatnessisrevealedinsimple,visualways.Everywhere,eveninsparseruralareas,there'sa
healthybustleofactivity.Americansgetupearly,andtheyfindithardtokeepstill.AtaFloridaintersection,Iwatcheda
manexpertlyjuggleamattress-storesigntoattractcustomers.Hemightholdthesignforminimumwage,butthat'snot
whyhejugglesit.
Thewholecountryisneverinreposeanenergyrunsthroughitthatyouwon'tfindanywhereelse,andasenseofconstant,
habitualcompetitionisever-present.Thisisthebiggesteconomyintheworld,anditfeelslikeit.Itfeelslikeagreatnation.
Tothepresidentialcandidates,however,theissueofgreatnessisdebatable.
"Wedon'twinanymore,"complainsDonaldTrump,whohasunashamedlypickedupRonaldReagan's1980campaign
slogan,"MakeAmericaGreatAgain."Tohim,asacandidateorasapotentialleader,thegameiszero-sum:Ifyouwin,
somebodyhastolose.Trumptalksalotaboutnegotiatingandmakingdeals,buthedoesn'tmeanitintheEuropeanorAsian
senseofreachingacompromiseorconsensus:Thenegotiationshehasinmindarepowerplays,andthedealsarevictories
fortheU.S.anddefeatsforitspartners.It'safundamentallyimperialistvisionofgreatness,inwhichtheU.S.takeswhatit
needsfromothers,beitoilfromIslamicState("taketheoil,"Trumpkeepssaying)ormoneyfromMexicotobuildawall
that'llkeepMexicansoutoftheU.S.
AmericahasbeengreatinthatwaysinceWorldWarII,andthroughouttherestoftheworld,theopinionthatit'scapableof
takingwhateveritwantsisattherootofunfavorableperceptionsoftheU.S.TheRussianstatepropagandanarrativeisthat
BarackObamaisabully.Trumpandhissupportersdon'tbuythistheywanttheU.S.tobeabigger,betterbully.Even
Trumpmightfindthatatallorder.
AshedeclaredvictoryinIowa,TedCruzspokeofAmericaas"thegreatestnationtheworldhaseverknown"butsaidit
hadstrayedfromtheprinciplesthathadmadeitsuch:freemarkets,constitutionallibertiesandwhattheconservative
candidateskeepcalling"Judeo-Christianvalues"--anincomprehensibletermtomeasaJew,butarallyingcrytomillionsof
peoplelikethoseIsawinmegachurchesintheSouthwhobelievetheirreligiouslibertyisthreatened.
Ofallthecandidates,CruzhasthevisionofAmerica'sgreatnessthatisthehardestforanoutsidertounderstand.The
Constitution,whichCruzkeepsvowingtodefend,isalreadymoreofasacredcowherethananywhereelse.Inother
countries,constitutionsevolveintheU.S.,thedocumentissacrosanct,areligiousartifact.Marketfreedomsarealsoin
evidence,farmorethaninEurope:There'slessinteractionwiththegovernmentandadistinctlymorecommercial,
entrepreneurialculture.Andthereligiousfreedomissue,whichinvariablygetsCruzabigboostatrallies,isa
mystery.NowherehaveIseensuchanimpressivevarietyofformsofChristianworship,orsuchrich,prosperous
churchesasintheU.S.Ittakesanincrediblystrongimaginationtofindanysignsofpersecutionhere.Thereligiousculture
isvibrant,joyousandopentoexperimentationthere'snovisibleneedforChristianstobeonthedefensive.
SoCruzappearssimplytowanttheU.S.tohavemoreofwhatitalreadyhasthemostof.Hisisaquantitativevisionof
greatnessthatisentirelyfordomesticuse.Non-Americanswouldn'tnoticeifthecountrybecamegreateronCruz'sterms.
OnthenighthecameinsecondinNewHampshireandwasenergizedtogoon,JohnKasichtalkedabouttheneedto"re-
shine"and"fixourgreatnation."It'seasytofeelintuitivelywhathe'sgettingat:Greaterefficiency,asenseofawell-oiled
machinethatonegets,say,inGermany'sindustrialregions.Bycomparison,Americaissloppier,moreadhoc:Povertyand
dysfunctionaretoooftenondisplay.I'vetakenalotofflightsinthesetwomonths,andnotonehasbeenontime.Kasich's
visionisoneofadown-to-earth,common-sensemanager.Greatnessisaboutgettingthenutsandboltsright.
Thatvision,however,ishardtoscalefromtheWhiteHouse,orfromthestateofOhiothatKasichhascontinuallyheldup
asanexamplefortherestofthecountry.ThealmosttangiblespiritoffreedomthatpermeatestheU.S.isnotconduciveto
efficiencyinthesmallthingsoflife.Thecountryistoodiversetorunlikeamechanism.
MarcoRubio,whodroppedoutofthepresidentialracelastweek,hadusedhisstumpspeechtoofferaclearandappealing
visionofgreatness:
Americaisagreatnation.Becauseeachgenerationbeforeusdidtheirpart.Eachgenerationbeforeus
sacrificed,theyconfrontedtheirchallenges,theyembracedtheiropportunities,andforovertwocenturies,
eachgenerationhasleftthenextbetteroffthanthemselves.
Rubio'smessagewasthatthiswasnolongerworkingbecauseoftheDemocrats'betrayaloftheAmericandreaminfavor
ofover-regulationandexcessivegovernment.HisclaimwouldbemoreplausibleifIhadnottraveledinFlorida,includingto
Hialeah,theU.S.citywiththehighestproportionofCubans--Rubio'speople.Thecityof230,000has44,000small
businesses,andtheirownersstillsacrifice,confronttheirchallenges,embracetheiropportunitiesandlivetheAmerican
dream.Rubiodescribeditinthepasttense,buttheAmericandreamisnotdead.America'ssocialfabriciswhatmakesita
greatcountry,anditappearstobeintact.
OntheDemocraticside,BernieSandershasacompellingvisionofadifferentkindofgreatness."Agreatnationisjudged,"
hesays,"byhowittreatsthemostvulnerableamongstus."And,"Thetestofagreatnationisnothowmanywarsitcan
engagein,buthowitcanresolveinternationalconflictsinapeacefulmanner."
Sanders'sunderstandingofgreatnesshasalottodowithjusticeandcompassion.It'salreadyeasyforastrangertofeelat
homehere.WhereverIhavegone,peoplehavebeenhelpful,courteousandconsideratetoadegreethatisnotcommonin
therestoftheworld.Americancultureisquitekind.Yetonadeeperlevel,manyAmericansfeelinsecure,cutofffromhelp
shouldtheyfindthemselvesintrouble.Sanderswantstoaddressthis.Itmakesnosensetohimthatthecountrythat
accountsfor34percentofallglobaldefensespendinghasahealth-caresystemthatranksamongthelastintherichworld
andaneducationsystemwhosestudentsarebehindEuropeanandAsianonesinreadingandmathskills.Surelyallthe
candidateswouldwanttheU.S.toleadinthosefields.
Isuspect,though,thatSanders'sideaofputtingitrightbygettingtoughonbusinessandraisingtaxeswoulddetractfrom
thekindofgreatnessRubiodescribedsosuccinctly.Messingwithacountry'ssocialfabricisdangerous,anditmaymakeit
moredysfunctionalratherthanfairer.
HillaryClintonhasmadeatypicallypragmaticcontributiontothegreatnessdebate."Despitewhatyouhear,wedon'tneedto
makeAmericagreatagain,"shehasrepeatedinrecentweeks."Americahasneverstoppedbeinggreat."Clintonischanging
thesubject:Shewantstheconversationtobeabouthealingdivisions,"makingthecountrywholeagain."
Clintonisnotpromisinganimmediateleapingreatness.ShewantstheU.S.tobecomethegloballeaderinsustainable
energy,forexample,butthatleadershipprobablycannotbeachievedeveninthenexttwopresidentialterms.The
Democraticfront-runner'sfocusisonmakingtheU.S.incrementallymorelivable.That'snotaninspiringgoal,butitmakes
sense.Perhapsthat'swhyClintonhaswonmorevotessofarthananyotherpresidentialcandidate.
Icomefromacountrythatusedtobegreatasanempireandasatotalitarianstate.Greatnesswasalwaysattheforefront
ofRussianrulers'minds.Itstillis,thoughthecountryisgoingthroughhardtimeseconomically,andmanyofitssmartest
peopleareseekingafutureelsewhere.Ihavemetanumberofthemhereinthelasttwomonths,tryingtofigureoutthe
Americandream.Backhome,Russianleaderswoulddowelltoforgetaboutgreatnessforawhileandtofocusonmore
mundanepriorities.
IfonlyAmericanleaderscoulddothataswell.TheU.S.cancertainlyaffordto.Butpresidentialcandidatescan'tshedthe
burdenofAmericangreatness.AsinRussia'scase,it'sinthenation'sgenes.
Theyenforgreatnessrunsdeep.It'sinescapable.AndyetAmericanshavenotyetagreedwhattheyareyearningfor.Does
greatnessmeanbeinganunbeatablebully,orabastionofenterpriseandingenuity,ortheworld'senvyinhealthcareand
education?Tryingtobeallthreeatonceappearsunsustainable.
GivenClinton'sstrength,theU.S.islikelytodelaythatreckoningwith"greatness,"asshechangesthesubject.Thatdefers
theconversationforatleastanothercycle.ButuntilthereisanAmericanconsensusaboutAmericangreatness,every
presidentialelectionwillbeanattempttosettlethequestion.Theyarelikelytobeascontentiousandasangryasthisone.
ThiscolumndoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheeditorialboardorBloombergLPanditsowners.
Tocontacttheauthorofthisstory:
LeonidBershidskyatlbershidsky@bloomberg.net
Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisstory:
PhilipGrayatphilipgray@bloomberg.net
Senttime: 03/25/201612:48:11PM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: UGH!!!WhatPutinWants-TheAmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/03/25/what-putin-wants/abouthalfofthispiecehaslesstodowith
PutinandmoretodowithadistasteforObama...
WhatPutinWants
SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywasinMoscowonThursday,wherehemetwithPutinandRussianForeignMinisterSergei
Lavrov,inabidtohelpwinddowntheSyrianCivilWar.TheWallStreetJournalreporthighlightsthemajorstickingpoint:
AfterfourhoursoftalksintheKremlin,MoscowandWashingtonapparentlyremaindividedoveracrucial
elementofanypeaceagreementthefutureofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.WhiletheU.S.haslongheld
thatMr.Assadsdepartureisnecessarytoanypeaceagreement,theKremlinhasinsistedhisgovernmentis
Syriasmainstayagainstchaos.[..]
Theimprovementsarewelcomebuttheyarenotsufficientnoraretheypermanent.Itisnotajobfinished
andthatiswhywetalkedheretoday,saidU.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry,onavisithere.
PutinsoundshappierthanKerrywiththewaythingsareafterall,Assadisstillonhisblood-soakedthrone,andhistroops
werepushingtowardPalmyraevenasthetalkscontinued:
WeareawarethatthegroundworkwehaveonSyriahasonlybeenpossiblethankstothepositionofthe
politicalsupremepoliticalleadershipoftheUnitedStates,specificallythepositionofPresidentObama,Mr.
Putinsaid.AndIreallyhopethattodaysvisitwillhelpusreconcilepositionsonorhelpmakeprogresson
bothSyriaandUkraine.
ThebigquestionforthosewatchingtheSyriatalksthesedays:whyonearthdoesWashingtonthinkitcanpersuadeRussia
todropAssad?TheUnitedStateshasnotroopsontheground,isclearlyunwillingtocommitrealresources,hasnoability
tofrustrateRussiandesignsifRussiadoesntcooperateonAssad.
Russiathesedaysisridinghigh.ItdemonstratedyetagainthattheObamaWhiteHouseisgiventomakinggassypredictions
thatturnouttobehumiliatinglywrongthatRussiawouldgetstuckinaquagmireinSyria,thatRussianactionsinSyria
andUkraineweresignsofgraveweakness,and,famously,thatAssadmustgo.
Russia,meanwhile,hasbeatenitsenemies,protecteditsfriends,andconsistentlymadetheUnitedStateslookstupid,
vaingloriousandweak.ThisisexactlywhatPutinwanted,anditisexactlywhathegot.
RussiasnextgoalintheMiddleEastisharder:thelogicalnextstepbothforPutinandIranistogetthepriceofoilup.This
isgoingtobedifficulttodothoughtalkofthepricefallingto$20abarrel(somethingthatwouldhavebeenruinous)
seemstohavediedawayforthepresent.
PutinnowhassomecardstoplaywiththeSaudis.Basically,iftheSaudiswillhelphimontheoilprice,hecanofferthem
someface-saversinSyria.Whoknows:ifthepriceisright,hecouldairliftAssadtoanicebeachfrontvillainCrimea.In
fact,PutinhasnointerestinfurtheringIransregionalambitionspastacertainpoint,sohemightwellexplorehemay
alreadybeexploringthepossibilityofsomekindofunderstandingtheRiyadh.TheSaudis,lookingatDonaldTrumpand
BarackObama,maynotthinktheU.S.isagoodbet,andtheyarentallthathappywiththeirresultsinYementodate.They
maywellthinkthatthereareworsethingsthancuttingadealwithPutin.NosupportforjihadinChechnya,securityforthe
AlawitesinSyriaevenastheSunniformregionalgovernmentsunderSaudiinfluence,RussiantacitsupportforSaudi
influenceinLebanondespiteIranstiestoHezbollah.Andtheoilpricesoarsagain,makingeveryonehappy.
Thereisonebigcomplication:asthepricegoesup,moreandmoreU.S.shaleproductionwouldbecomeviable(theU.S.
nowproducesalmostasmanymillionsofbarrelsperdayasSaudi,atroughly10:9).Apricereboundinenergymarkets
wouldboostthisfurther,thuscounteractingtoasignificantthoughunknownextentanyplantodriveoilpricesthroughthe
roof.Butthatdoesntmeannothingcanbedone:ifRussiaandtheSaudisworktogether,theyrecertainlycapableof
movingthemarket,evenwithU.S.frackingwaitinginthewings.ToomanyinWashingtontendtoblithelydismissPutins
strategy,orhischances.Thisisdeeplyironic,formeanwhile,theU.S.leverageintheMiddleEastcontinuestodecline,
whileRussianpowerisgrowing.ObamaapparentlycontinuestobelievethatPutinisinexorablydoomedtodecline,sosees
noneedtoreact.Healsoappearstobelievethatmakingonefalsepredictionafteranotheraboutfutureeventswont
diminishhisinternationalprestige,andthatemptyposturinghasnoreputationalcostin,forexample,Asia,whereJapan,
Taiwan,China,Vietnamandmanyothersstareaghast(orinsecretglee)athisperformance.
Thefoundationsofworldorderaremorefragilethantheylook.TheyarentgettinganystrongerastheAgeofObama
wearson.
Senttime: 03/25/201612:48:11PM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: UGH!!!WhatPutinWants-TheAmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/03/25/what-putin-wants/abouthalfofthispiecehaslesstodowith
PutinandmoretodowithadistasteforObama...
WhatPutinWants
SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywasinMoscowonThursday,wherehemetwithPutinandRussianForeignMinisterSergei
Lavrov,inabidtohelpwinddowntheSyrianCivilWar.TheWallStreetJournalreporthighlightsthemajorstickingpoint:
AfterfourhoursoftalksintheKremlin,MoscowandWashingtonapparentlyremaindividedoveracrucial
elementofanypeaceagreementthefutureofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.WhiletheU.S.haslongheld
thatMr.Assadsdepartureisnecessarytoanypeaceagreement,theKremlinhasinsistedhisgovernmentis
Syriasmainstayagainstchaos.[..]
Theimprovementsarewelcomebuttheyarenotsufficientnoraretheypermanent.Itisnotajobfinished
andthatiswhywetalkedheretoday,saidU.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry,onavisithere.
PutinsoundshappierthanKerrywiththewaythingsareafterall,Assadisstillonhisblood-soakedthrone,andhistroops
werepushingtowardPalmyraevenasthetalkscontinued:
WeareawarethatthegroundworkwehaveonSyriahasonlybeenpossiblethankstothepositionofthe
politicalsupremepoliticalleadershipoftheUnitedStates,specificallythepositionofPresidentObama,Mr.
Putinsaid.AndIreallyhopethattodaysvisitwillhelpusreconcilepositionsonorhelpmakeprogresson
bothSyriaandUkraine.
ThebigquestionforthosewatchingtheSyriatalksthesedays:whyonearthdoesWashingtonthinkitcanpersuadeRussia
todropAssad?TheUnitedStateshasnotroopsontheground,isclearlyunwillingtocommitrealresources,hasnoability
tofrustrateRussiandesignsifRussiadoesntcooperateonAssad.
Russiathesedaysisridinghigh.ItdemonstratedyetagainthattheObamaWhiteHouseisgiventomakinggassypredictions
thatturnouttobehumiliatinglywrongthatRussiawouldgetstuckinaquagmireinSyria,thatRussianactionsinSyria
andUkraineweresignsofgraveweakness,and,famously,thatAssadmustgo.
Russia,meanwhile,hasbeatenitsenemies,protecteditsfriends,andconsistentlymadetheUnitedStateslookstupid,
vaingloriousandweak.ThisisexactlywhatPutinwanted,anditisexactlywhathegot.
RussiasnextgoalintheMiddleEastisharder:thelogicalnextstepbothforPutinandIranistogetthepriceofoilup.This
isgoingtobedifficulttodothoughtalkofthepricefallingto$20abarrel(somethingthatwouldhavebeenruinous)
seemstohavediedawayforthepresent.
PutinnowhassomecardstoplaywiththeSaudis.Basically,iftheSaudiswillhelphimontheoilprice,hecanofferthem
someface-saversinSyria.Whoknows:ifthepriceisright,hecouldairliftAssadtoanicebeachfrontvillainCrimea.In
fact,PutinhasnointerestinfurtheringIransregionalambitionspastacertainpoint,sohemightwellexplorehemay
alreadybeexploringthepossibilityofsomekindofunderstandingtheRiyadh.TheSaudis,lookingatDonaldTrumpand
BarackObama,maynotthinktheU.S.isagoodbet,andtheyarentallthathappywiththeirresultsinYementodate.They
maywellthinkthatthereareworsethingsthancuttingadealwithPutin.NosupportforjihadinChechnya,securityforthe
AlawitesinSyriaevenastheSunniformregionalgovernmentsunderSaudiinfluence,RussiantacitsupportforSaudi
influenceinLebanondespiteIranstiestoHezbollah.Andtheoilpricesoarsagain,makingeveryonehappy.
Thereisonebigcomplication:asthepricegoesup,moreandmoreU.S.shaleproductionwouldbecomeviable(theU.S.
nowproducesalmostasmanymillionsofbarrelsperdayasSaudi,atroughly10:9).Apricereboundinenergymarkets
wouldboostthisfurther,thuscounteractingtoasignificantthoughunknownextentanyplantodriveoilpricesthroughthe
roof.Butthatdoesntmeannothingcanbedone:ifRussiaandtheSaudisworktogether,theyrecertainlycapableof
movingthemarket,evenwithU.S.frackingwaitinginthewings.ToomanyinWashingtontendtoblithelydismissPutins
strategy,orhischances.Thisisdeeplyironic,formeanwhile,theU.S.leverageintheMiddleEastcontinuestodecline,
whileRussianpowerisgrowing.ObamaapparentlycontinuestobelievethatPutinisinexorablydoomedtodecline,sosees
noneedtoreact.Healsoappearstobelievethatmakingonefalsepredictionafteranotheraboutfutureeventswont
diminishhisinternationalprestige,andthatemptyposturinghasnoreputationalcostin,forexample,Asia,whereJapan,
Taiwan,China,Vietnamandmanyothersstareaghast(orinsecretglee)athisperformance.
Thefoundationsofworldorderaremorefragilethantheylook.TheyarentgettinganystrongerastheAgeofObama
wearson.
Senttime: 03/25/201609:30:12AM
FW:[EARLYLATENIGHTRUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UAUAdefenceindustryNovorossoyaRUstrategyRUforcesNATO
Subject:
forcesBalticsEuropoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRUeconomyUAeconomyMediaObamaJapanTrumpChinaSyria......
Sent:Thursday,March24,20165:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[EARLYLATENIGHTRUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UAUAdefenceindustryNovorossoyaRUstrategyRU
forcesNATOforcesBalticsEuropoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRUeconomyUAeconomyMediaObamaJapanTrumpChina
Syria......
Date:Thu,Mar24,2016at8:35PM
Subject:[EARLYLATENIGHTRUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UAUAdefenceindustryNovorossoyaRU
strategyRUforcesNATOforcesBalticsEuropoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRUeconomyUAeconomyMediaObama
JapanTrumpChinaSyria.......FP:Karadzicmakingacomeback??.......[PB]NYT:THREERULESOFKREMLINPOWER
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineUkrainedefenceindustryNovorossoyaRussiastrategyRussianforcesNATOforces
BalticsEuropeanpoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRussianeconomyUkraineeconomyMediaObamaJapanTrumpChina
Syria
Somearticlesfromthisweeksofar.
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30hrs,22March
2016
2016
6UkrainianSoldiersWoundedRussian-BackedFightersMountAssaultsOnHighwayToMariupol
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-766/#13036
DispatchFromAvdiivka:HottestpointoffightingonUkraine'sfrontline
http://uatoday.tv/politics/dispatch-from-avdiivka-hottest-point-of-fighting-on-ukraine-rsquo-s-front-line-613978.html
RussianfighterscontinuetoflowintoeastUkraine,USofficialstates
http://www.janes.com/article/58894/russian-fighters-continue-to-flow-into-east-ukraine-us-official-states
30,346casualtieshavebeenrecordedineasternUkrainesincethebeginningoftheconflict.
http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-accidents_and_emergencies/1987995-over-30000-casualties-recorded-in-eastern-ukraine-
un.html
Ukrainedefenceindustry
ThemissileofUkrainianproductionpassedthefiringtestsuccessfully
http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/2439.html
UkrainetestingKrAZ-ShrekandKrAZ-Fionaheavyarmoredvehicles
http://defence-blog.com/army/ukraine-testing-kraz-shrek-and-kraz-fiona-heavy-armored-vehicles.html
Ukraine'sColdWarEraTanksRefitforModernDayWarfare
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-03-21/photos-ukraine-upgrades-its-battle-armor-of-t-72-tanks
Ukrainianarmyreceived16modernizedBTR-4Armouredpersonnelcarriers
http://defence-blog.com/army/ukrainian-army-received-16-modernized-btr-4-armoured-personnel-carriers.html
Novorossoya

Russia-BackedSeparatistsIssue'Passports'InDonetsk
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-donetsk-passports-zakharchenko/27618716.html
SeparatistsLaunchNewPassportizationStrategyinEasternUkraine
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/separatists-launch-new-passportization-strategy-in-eastern-ukraine
Russiastrategy
RussiasNewToolsforConfrontingtheWest:ContinuityandInnovationinMoscowsExerciseofPower
ByKeirGiles
Russianmilitaryinterventionsandassociatedinformationwarfarecampaignsinthepasttwoyearshavenotbeenananomaly.
InsteadtheyareexamplesofRussiaimplementingitslong-standingintenttochallengetheWestnowthatitfeelsstrongenoughto
doso.ForWesterngovernmentsandleaders,anessentialfirststeptowardsmoresuccessfulmanagementoftherelationshipwith
MoscowwouldbetorecognizethattheWestsvaluesandstrategicinterestsandthoseofRussiaarefundamentallyincompatible
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/russias-new-tools-confronting-west#sthash.nOoNVEOO.dpuf
PutinsVisionontheRoadAwayFromDamascus
Putinsregimecanonlystayinpowerbylaunchingmoreadventuresabroad
ByStephenBlank
http://intersectionproject.eu/article/russia-world/putins-vision-road-away-damascus
Astrategyofspectacle
HiswillingnessandabilitytoactabroadgivesVladimirPutinabigboostathome
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21694997-his-willingness-and-ability-act-abroad-gives-vladimir-putin-big-boost-home-
strategy
SentbyStefanForss
Russianforces
NewRussiannavalMiG-29KUBaircraftbegantoflyinYeisk
http://defence-blog.com/news/new-russian-naval-mig-29kub-aircraft-began-to-fly-in-yeisk.html
NewUran-9unmannedcombatgroundvehicletoappearinRussianArmybyyear-end
http://defence-blog.com/army/video-new-uran-9-unmanned-combat-ground-vehicle-to-appear-in-russian-army-by-year-end.html
NATOforces
ArmyWeighingTHAADDeploymentsinEurope,MiddleEast
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/army/2016/03/22/army-weighing-thaad-deployments-europe-middle-
east/82127616/
RomaniatoprocureSpikeanti-tankmissiles
Armatapltete16milioanedeeuropentruracheteantitankSpike
http://www.romanialibera.ro/actualitate/eveniment/armata-plateste-16-milioane-de-euro-pentru-rachete-antitank-spike-410818
VehiclesForThePolishSpecialForces-ProcurementWillStartin2017.TwoStagesofthePegazProgramme
http://www.defence24.com/332776,vehicles-for-the-polish-special-forces-procurement-will-start-in-2017-two-stages-of-the-
pegaz-programme
Baltics
TheBalticElvesTakingonPro-RussianTrolls
Whatatfirstlookedlikeasasocialmediagrudgematchcouldbeaprecursortoinvasion,war,andresistanceintheBaltics.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/20/the-baltic-elves-taking-on-pro-russian-trolls.html
Europeanpolitics
WhatsLeftofEuropeIftheFarRightHasItsWay?
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Far_Right_Europe_0321_web.pdf

Finland
Finnishdefenceministrytargetedbywebattack
TheMinistryofDefencesaysitswebsitecameunderattackonTuesdayafternoon,shortlybeforetheFinnishandRussian
presidentsmetinMoscow.Theministrysaysthisisthesecondsuchdisruptionofitssitethisyear.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/finnish_defence_ministry_targeted_by_web_attack/8761099
NATO
NATONeedstoMoveTwoBrigadesEast,andThatsJustaStart
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/03/nato-russia-summit-2016/126781/
ItsTimetoSharpenNATOsSpearheadForce
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/it-s-time-to-sharpen-nato-s-spearhead-force
NATObreedsfrustration,butisvitaltoolinISfight
http://ktar.com/story/980538/nato-breeds-frustration-but-is-vital-tool-in-is-fight/
Estonia
EstoniaTakesDeliveryofJavelinAnti-TankMissiles
http://estonia.usembassy.gov/pr_eng032016.html
TechHavenEstoniaAttractingU.S.Defense,CybersecurityBusiness
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?List=7c996cd7-cbb4-4018-baf8-
8825eada7aa2&ID=2135&RootFolder=%2Fblog%2FLists%2FPosts
Russianeconomy
MillionsmoreRussianslivinginpovertyaseconomiccrisisbites
Nearly20millionnowsurvivingonwageswhicharebelowthepovertythresholdaccordingtolateststatestatistics
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/millions-more-russians-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites?
CMP=share_btn_tw
RussiacrudeoilexportsonthedeclineRosstat
http://www.unian.info/economics/1299028-russia-crude-oil-exports-on-the-decline-rosstat.html
Ukraineeconomy
Ukraine'sEconomyPlummetedByNearly10PercentIn2015
http://www.rferl.org/content/urkaine-economy-plummeted-nearly-10-percent-2015-financial-consumer-implosion/27627512.html
Media
BBCSaysRussia'sTrollFactoryFakedaVideoShowingaUSSoldierShootingataQuran
http://globalvoices.org/2016/03/23/bbc-says-russias-troll-factory-faked-a-video-showing-a-us-soldier-shooting-at-a-koran/
http://www.bbc.com/russian/society/2016/03/160315_smj_trolls_make_haram_video?SThisFB
Russia'sinformationwarfare-airbrushingreality
RussiaisconductingacoordinatedbutundeclaredinformationcampaignagainsttheUnitedKingdom,attemptingtoinfluencethe
UK'sdomesticdebateonkeyissuesinordertoproduceanoutcomeofbenefittoRussia.ThiscampaignislobbyingforaBritish
exitfromtheEU,thescrappingofTrident,andaScottishexitfromtheUnion-alloutcomeswhichwouldweakentheUKandgive
Russiaafreerhandinworldaffairs.Thisisunacceptablebehaviourbyaforeigngovernment.
2.Thepreciseimpactofthisbehaviourishardtomeasure.However,RussianclaimsthattheScottishindependencereferendum
wasfixedcertainlyfuelledthebroadercampaigntoquestionthevote,[1]andtheKremlin-fundedmediacertainlyamplifiedand
expandedonthoseclaims.Anecdotalevidencesupportsthethesisthatthiscoveragehadatleastsomedegreeofimpactonsome
individualvotersthedegreetowhichthedisinformationhaspenetrateddifferentaudiencesmeritsfurtherstudy.
3.Moreover,regardlessoftheimpactofthisdisinformation,thefactthatadisinformationcampaignisbeingconductedbyRussian
governmentoutletsremainsdemonstrablythecasethatcaseissetoutbelow.Thisbeingso,appropriatelegalanddiplomatic
responsesshouldbebroughttobearbothonthedirectactorsinthedisinformationcampaign,andontheRussiangovernment
morebroadly.
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/defence-committee/russia-implications-for-
uk-defence-and-security/written/30408.html
Obama
TheProblemwiththeObamaDoctrine
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-problem-with-the-obama-doctrine
TheIronyofObamianHistory
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/21/the-irony-of-obamian-history/
[SentbyStefanForss]
Japan
AbepaveswayforRussiavisitbycounterbalancingUkraine
JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbe,caughtbetweenthedesiretoachieveabreakthroughwithRussiaonaterritorialdisputeand
theneedtorespectthestronganti-MoscowstanceoftheU.S.andotherallies,isseekingtomakethemostofJapan'scurrent
positionaschairoftheGroupofSevenadvancedeconomies.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Abe-paves-way-for-Russia-visit-by-counterbalancing-Ukraine
Trump
TrumpquestionsneedforNATO,outlinesnoninterventionistforeignpolicy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-reveals-foreign-policy-team-in-meeting-with-
the-washington-post/?postshare=2851458585005985&tid=ss_tw
AwhirlwinddayinD.C.showcasesTrumpsunorthodoxviewsandshiftingtone
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-whirlwind-day-in-dc-showcases-trumps-unorthodox-views-and-shifting-
tone/2016/03/21/ef06d276-ef7b-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html
[SentbyStefanForss]
AtranscriptofDonaldTrumpsmeetingwithTheWashingtonPosteditorialboard
TRUMP:Idontwanttouse,Idontwanttostarttheprocessofnuclear.Remembertheonethingthateverybodyhassaid,Ima
counterpuncher.Rubiohitme.Bushhitme.WhenIsaidlowenergy,hesalow-energyindividual,hehitmefirst.Ispent,bythe
wayhespent18milliondollarsworthofnegativeadsonme.Thatsputting[MUFFLED]
RYAN:ThisisaboutISIS.YouwouldnotuseatacticalnuclearweaponagainstISIS?
[CROSSTALK]
TRUMP:Illtellyouonething,thisisaverygoodlookinggroupofpeoplehere.CouldIjustgoaroundsoIknowwhothehell
Imtalkingto?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/03/21/a-transcript-of-donald-trumps-meeting-with-the-washington-
post-editorial-board/
DonaldTrumpfinallynameshisforeignpolicyadvisersincludingonewhothinkstheUScandobusinesswithPutin
http://qz.com/644277/donald-trump-finally-names-his-foreign-policy-advisers-including-one-who-thinks-the-us-can-do-business-
with-putin/
China
ChinaProposesNewCentralAsianMilitaryAlliance
RussiaWarnsofUnilateralActiontoPoliceSyriaCease-fire
http://www.voanews.com/content/russia-warns-of-unilateral-action-to-police-syria-cease-fire/3248604.html
PutinrevealsunitsdeployedtoSyria
http://www.janes.com/article/58952/putin-reveals-units-deployed-to-syria
RussiasayshasspecialforcesunitinSyria-Interfax
http://news.trust.org/item/20160323160655-pzwfz
RussiaadmitstotrainingSyriaKurds
Colonel-GeneralAlexanderDvornikovpraisedthePeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG)duringaninterviewwithRossiyskayaGazeta.
http://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566785-russia-admits-to-training-syria-kurds
-""
http://rg.ru/2016/03/23/aleksandr-dvornikov-dejstviia-rf-v-korne-perelomili-situaciiu-v-sirii.html#ac955904/16964/26
DespiteWithdrawalRussiansContinueToFightAndDieInSyria
http://www.interpretermag.com/despite-withdrawal-russians-continue-to-fight-and-die-in-syria/
RussiajetsdestroyingPalmyra:activists
http://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566778-russia-jets-destroying-palmyra-activists
Russianwarplanesdeliverairstrikesat146facilitiesnearPalmyradefenseministry
http://tass.ru/en/defense/864947
RussianTVbulletinonPalmyrafighting
http://youtu.be/K2CQ5cFReR4
Palmyrasituationmap
http://www.agathocledesyracuse.com/archives/705
RussiaisFlyingIsraeliDronesAgainstAnti-AssadRebelsinSyria
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/24/russia-is-flying-israeli-drones-against-anti-assad-rebels-in-syria.html?
via=mobile&source=email
SixthRussianservicemankilledinSyria
http://citeam.org/sixth-russian-serviceman-killed-in-syria/
http://slon.ru/posts/65735
[ReportonRussianservicemenkilledinSyria]
Russia'sspecialforcesofficerkilledinSyria:agencies
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Mar-24/344006-russian-officer-killed-in-combat-operation-near-syrias-
palmyra-interfax-quotes-russian-military.ashx#.VvQ-Wg-G4sw.twitter
RussiasPyrrhicVictoryinSyria
BeforeandAftertheDrawdown
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2016-03-20/russia-s-pyrrhic-victory-syria
PutinsMasterPlanforSyria
TheKremlinisn'twithdrawingfromthewar-torncountry,it'shopingtotranslateitsrecentgainsintoadiplomaticvictory.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/18/putins-master-plan-for-syria-assad-isis-russia-peace-deal/
_______________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio

From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Editors'Picks:Karadzicmakingacomeback???[OHBOY!!]
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.

EDITORS'PICKS

Thursday,March24

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookatRepublikaSrpska'sreactiontotheconvictionofaformerleader
forwarcrimes

4 OURMANINSERBIA:TheautonomousSerbiangovernmentin
Bosniaisquestioningthewarcrimesverdictagainstitsformer
president,RadovanKaradzic,writesFP'sHenryJohnson:Read
more

CheckoutFP'sEditor'sRoundtablepodcastonouriTunespage.
ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

Subject:ThreeRulesofKremlinPower-TheNewYorkTimes
Justdon'ttakecomfortinthestillworseningeconomicsituationinRussia.TheWesthasalwaysfailedtounderstandthedepthof
sufferingRussianswillabsorbinthenameofGlory.RememberNapoleonHitlerandother"smart"guys?Springingfromnorthern
tundranomads,risingtopowerasvassalsoftheMongolKhan,Russiahasalwayshadanundermenschen'srespectissue.Being
respectedismoreimportanttotheaverageRussianthanbeingfed.Lifeistoughandattimesitgetsimpossible,butlikeanyother
Mafia,nothingismoreimportantthan"respect".That'sPutin'sconnectionwithhis"people".Theywillacceptfarmoresuffering
thantheWestiswillingtoimposeonthem.But,thereisaweaklinkinthatconnection--Blood.Russianswillnotdieforhimin
battle.That'swhyheworked(andworks)sohardtohidetheRussiancasualtiesintheinvasionofUkraine,denyinginformationto
survivors,burialsinobscureplaces,incinerationofbodies,etc.ThecoreObamamiscalculationisimposingeconomicsanctions
thatlowerthestandardoflivingofRussiansinsteadofgivingUkrainetheoffensiveweaponstolowerthenumberoflivingRussian
soldiers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/24/opinion/international/three-rules-of-kremlin-power.html?_r=1
ATarecentawardsceremonyattheKremlinforscientists,artistsandpublicintellectuals,
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiacouldnthelpbutrecounthiscountrys
achievements.Buthealsoofferedawordofcaution.Westillhavealotofunsolved
problemsandquestions,hesaid.Itiscertainlynotimeforustobedizzywithsuccess.
Dontbedeceivedbysuchexpressionsofhumility.ManyRussiansviewMr.Putinas
highlysuccessfulandthepresidenthimselfverymuchagrees.Hisapprovalratinghas
reachedlevelsupwardof80percentfornearlytwoyears,andfew,certainlynoneata
Kremlinevent,aremakingapubliccaseforredefiningorevenamendingthenotionof
whatconstitutesaMoscowleaderssuccess.
Taketheeconomy.Throughouttheyearsofoil-drivengrowth,economicperformancewas
ameasureofsuccess.Nolonger.Russianofficialsprojectthattheeconomywillcontract
1percentto1.5percentthisyear,providedoilpricesstaywithinthe$35-$40rangeper
barrel,afterhavingshrunk3.7percentin2015.Growthisntexpectedtoarriveuntil2017
andonlyifthepriceofoilaverages$52ormoreabarrel,bynomeansacertainty.
Thenewsgetsworse.Realincomesarefallingforthesecondyearnow.Thecountrys
infrastructureisinterribleshape,whileinvestmentisgoingdownforthefourthyearina
row.PeoplearelosingjobsandRussiaislosingtalent.Butevenifsomepeoplerecognize
thesethingsasfailures,theyarenotgenerallyviewedasMr.Putinsresponsibility.The
outcomesmaybeunpopularbutthedecisionsthatcausedthemarenot.
Hisuseofthephrasedizzywithsuccessmayhelpexplainwhy.
EveryRussianknowstheslogan:ItwastheheadlineofanarticlewrittenbyJosephStalin
in1930forthenewspaperPravda,hismessengerofchoice.StalinwroteDizzyWith
SuccessattheheightofhiscampaigntoturnSovietfarmersintoanagricultural
proletariat.Inlessthanayeartensofmillionsofpeasantswerebayonetedintojoining
newcollectivefarms.Thosewhoresistedwerearrestedorexiled.IntheyearthatStalin
waswritingaboutsuccess,morethanthreemillionpeasantswereinrevolt.Millionsdied
asaresultofdeportationsorfamine.Thecountrysagriculturaleconomyneverfully
recovered,buttheleaderatthetopremainedpopular.EventodayStalinenjoysastaunch
althoughbynomeansuniversalfollowingamongmycountrymen.
Stalinwasassertingthatcollectivizationwasasuccessexceptforisolatedcasesof
overzealousbureaucracy.Hetookcreditforestablishingasocializedagricultureinjusta
fewmonthsandshiftedblameforthemanybrutalitiesinvolvedtolocalauthoritiesand
others.Manyofthosepeoplewerelaterarrestedandpunished.
MypointisnottodrawadirectcomparisonbetweenStalinandMr.Putin:Theyarevery
differentleaderslivinginverydifferenttimes.Ijustcannothelpnoticingthattheyseem
tofollowthesameplaybookforbeingasuccessfulautocrat.
SignUpfortheOpinionTodayNewsletter
Everyweekday,getthought-provokingcommentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimeseditorialboardandcontributing
writersfromaroundtheworld.
Indeed,iftherewereasecretmanualdescribingtheKremlinsartofgovernance,itwould
almostcertainlyincludethreerulesthatbothmenhavemastered.
RuleNo.1callsforattributingallvictoriestooneselfregardlessofwhoorwhat
contributedtotheperceivedsuccess.Avictoryinwarwonbythepeopleatimpossible
costhastobeascribedtotheleader.Prosperity,evenifagiftfromMotherNatureor
marketforces,isanachievementoftheruler.
RuleNo.2:Failuresmustbeascribedtosubordinatesorexternalforces.Stalindidnt
inventthistrickbutheperfecteditwithbrutalefficiency.Hecreateddisasterafter
disaster,buthisassociatesandsubjectsjustkeptadmiring,oratleastfearing,him.
RuleNo.3istheabilitytomanipulatewhatusedtobecalledthepartyline.OnedayHitler
isanenemy,thenextafriend,thenlateranenemyonceagain.Onedayleft-wingforces
arethepartysenemies,thenextdayitsbestfriends.
Mr.Putinhasprovedadeptatallthree.Hetookcreditfortheoil-driveneconomicboom
(ruleNo.1).Thenwhentheeconomytanked,hehasallowedblametobeplacedonhis
ministers,particularlyPrimeMinisterDmitriA.Medvedev,orpointedafingeratthe
West(ruleNo.2).
Andhehaschangedthepartylinewithdizzyingagility(ruleNo.3).OnedayRussiaisa
business-friendlyeconomy,thenextitisastatistpower.OnedayRussiaisbusy
integratingwiththeformerSovietrepublics,thenextdayitisfightingthem.Oneday
Russiaproclaimssovereigntysacred,thenextdayitannexesCrimea,aneighboring
countrysterritory.Thenextdayitagainproclaimssovereigntysacred,tojustify
proppingupthebeleagueredregimeofPresidentBasharal-AssadinSyria.
Syriaisoneofthosesuccessstoriesforwhichtheczarisenjoyingcreditwhileotherswill
havetomanagethethornyconsequences.ThisweekSecretaryofStateJohnKerryheads
toMoscowtodiscussSyriawithMr.Putin.Thisisthealtitudeatwhichtheczarsfly.Isnt
itneat?Thisisalsohowhecanstaypopularwhilethenationseconomyisgoingnowhere.
AndthisistheflipsideofthemythofPutinleadershipthatinsomequartersofEurope
andeventheUnitedStates,otherwould-beczarsseektoemulate.
MaximTrudolyubov,editoratlargeforthebusinessnewspaperVedomosti,writesTheRussiaFileblogforthe
KennanInstituteandisafellowattheBoschAcademyinBerlin.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 03/25/201611:36:37AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: NorthCaucasusWeekly--Volume17,Issue6
Viewthisemailinyour
browser
March25,2016--Volume17,Issue6
INTHISISSUE
*UnusuallyviolentattackoncivilactivistsandjournalistsoccursinIngushetia
*AbkhazianauthoritieswanttoattractmoreAbkhazexpatriatesbacktotherepublic
*MilitantkilledinDagestanturnsouttobeformerpoliceofficer
*AttackonSalafistimaminIngushetiamarksrisingSufi-Salafitensions
*Attackonhigh-profilerightsactivistinGroznyangersRussians
*ICGreportdetailshowRussiaexportsNorthCaucasusjihadists
*Moscowintensifieseffortstoregisteranddetailnumberofextremists
*KadyrovannouncesChechenspecialforcestrainingmissiontotheNorthPole

**DearJamestownSubscriber:
WehopeyouenjoythiscompendiumofarticlesontheNorthCaucasusandifyoudonotwish
tocontinuereceivingthispublicationpleaseupdateyoursubscriptionstatusontheJamestown
websiteorcontactusdirectlyatpubs@jamestown.org.

***VisittheJamestownwebsiteforNorthCaucasusAnalysis(www.jamestown.org/nc/)
SuspectedChechenServicemenAttackJournalistsandRightsActivistsin
Ingushetia

OnMarch9,unidentifiedassailantsattackedagroupofjournalistsandrightsactivistsin
Ingushetia.Anestimated1520armedmenstoppedtheminivanwith8rightsactivistsand
journalistsintheborderareabetweenIngushetiaandChechnya.Thearmedmenforcedthe
passengersoftheminivanout,tookawaytheircellphones,beatthemup,andsettheircaron
fire.TwoofthejournalistswerefromSwedenandNorway,whichturnedtheincidentintoan
internationalscandal(Interfax,March9).

Accordingtothesourcesinthepolice,theassailantsapparentlyknewthatthegroupof
journalistsandrightsactivistswereontheirwaytoChechnya,includingmembersofthewell-
knownrightsgroup,theCommitteeAgainstTorture,headedbyIgorKalyapin.Theattack
appearedtobespecificallydesignedtopreventthegroupfromenteringChechnya(Interfax,
March10).
Investigatorsarestilllookingfortheperpetratorsoftheattack,butKadyrovsmenarewidely
suspectedtohavebeeninvolved.AccordingtoAleksandrinaYelaginaofthe NewTimes
magazine,whowasamongthosebeatenup,theassailantssaidtheyshouldnotgoto
Chechnyaandthatthejournalistsandrightsactivistswereprotectingterrorists.Kalyapins
organizationcameunderattackinChechnya.In2015,theMoscowactivistswhoinvestigated
seriousrightsviolationssuchaskidnappingsandtorturehadtomovetheirofficesfrom
ChechnyatoIngushetia(Meduza.io,March10).
Thedayoftheattack,March9,anothergroupseparatelyattackedtherightsactivistsoffice
intheIngushcityofKarabulak.TheattackontheChechenborderonMarch9tookplace
duetoMr.KadyrovsopinionthatChechnyaishisdomainandallthatishappeningthere
shouldtakeplaceonlyafteraskinghispermissionoronhisdirectorders,Kalyapinsaid.
Civiliancontrol,investigativejournalism,andhumanrightsactivitiescannotexistinChechnya.
WhenhewasinformedthatthejournalistsjoinedtheCommitteeagainstTorture,itprobably
causedtheoutbreakofaggression.TheChechenauthoritieshavebeenstrugglingtoexpelour
organizationfromtherepublicforthepasttwoyears,butwepersistedinspiteofallthe
attacks,violence,intimidation,anddefamationagainstusonanalmostdailybasis(Snob.ru,
March11).Chechnyasoutspokenhumanrightsombudsman,NurdiNukhazhiev,toldDozhd
TVthatKalyapinhimselfmostlikelyorganizedtheattack(Dozhd,March10).
Whatmakesthelatestattackunusualisnotonlyhowbrazenitwas,butalsoVladimirPutins
reactiontoit.Unexpectedly,PutinaskedtheMinistryofInteriortoinvestigatetheincidentand
providealegalassessmentofit(Interfax,March10).RamzanKadyrovhasbeenunder
immensepressureinthepastseveralmonths.TheprominentRussianoppositionleaderBoris
NemtsovwaskilledneartheKremlin,inMoscow,inFebruary2015,andinvestigatorssoon
afterwarddetainedseveralsuspectedChechens.AlthoughnoproofofKadyrovsdirect
involvementinNemtsovsmurderhasbeenprovided,somecriticsoftheKremlinare
convincedKadyrovwasbehindtheassassination.ThepressureonKadyrovhasmountedand
histermasChechnyasgovernorisexpiring.Hence,someRussiananalystssayPutinislikely
toreplaceKadyrovwithamoredocilefigure(Nv.ua,March3).
TheKremlinsreactiontothelatestattackonrightsactivistsandjournalistsconnectedto
Chechnyaseemstoconfirmthatchangesmightbecomingintherepublic.Putinssilenceon
Kadyrovsreappointmentisalsoquitetelling,asitindicatesthattheKremlinisstillundecided
aboutwhattodowithKadyrov.AlthoughsomeanalystssaythatdismissingKadyrovwill
destabilizetherepublic,othersarguethathisimportanceisexaggerated.Putinsspokesman,
DmitryPeskov,respondedtothequestionaboutthepossibledestabilizationofChechnya
afterKadyrovsdismissal:Isthesituation[inChechnya]anydifferentfromotherregions?
TheyhavethesamebranchesofpoweraselsewhereintheRussianFederation.Letusnot
forgetthattheregion[Chechnya]belongstotheRussianFederation,whereallRussianlaws
work(Interfax,February29).
PeskovcertainlyexaggeratedwhenhesaidthatallRussianlawsworkinChechnyathesame
wayaselsewhereintheRussianFederation.However,theKremlinseemstobesignalingto
Kadyrovthatheshouldscaledownhisnotorietyinthenews.SeveralsourcestoldtheRBC
newsagencythatPutinintendedtoallowKadyrovtorunforgovernoragainafterheappoints
himasinterimgovernor(Rbc.ru,March2),whichisalegalnonsensebecauseChechnyais
supposedtoelectitsgovernorindirectgovernorelections.Inreality,however,Putinmanages
theregion,personallydealingwiththecomplexitiesofthesituationontheground.Giventhat
heisfacingmanychallengesabroad,Putinislikelytochoosetheeasiestwaytoproceedin
Chechnyatoreappointtheexistinggovernor.However,regularleaksfromtheNemtsov
murderinvestigationandotherscandalsindicatethatmanyRussians,includingtheRussian
opposition,areunitedintheirdislikeforRamzanKadyrov.TheonlyallyKadyrovstillseems
tohaveisVladimirPutin,andevenhecouldsacrificeKadyrovforpoliticalreasons,if
necessary.
--ValeryDzutsati
AbkhaziasAttemptstoBringExpatriatesHomeHitMajorObstacles
ThegovernmentoftheGeorgianbreakawayterritoryofAbkhaziaplanstorampupits
attemptstobringthelargeAbkhazdiasporabacktotherepublic.Currently,anestimated
3,500Abkhazrepatriatesarepermanentlyresidingintherepublicandupto8,000have
receivedAbkhazianpassports.However,theAbkhaziangovernmentbelievesthatthepoolof
possiblerepatriatesisfarlargerandincludeshundredsofthousandsofethnicAbkhazwho
resideprimarilyinTurkey.AccordingtothechairmanoftheAbkhaziangovernments
committeeforrepatriation,VadimKharazia,therepublicanauthoritiesareworkingonaplan
toincreasetheiroutreacheffortstotheAbkhazdiasporasworldwideandarehelpingreturning
Abkhazco-ethnicswithhousingandemployment.KharaziatoldtheRussiangovernment
sponsorednewsagencySputnikthatfromFebruary19through21,hevisitedTurkey,where
hemetwithAbkhazactivistswhoagreedtocoordinatetheireffortswiththeself-declared
countrysgovernment.Thebudgetfortherepatriationcomesfromaspecial2percenttaxon
thesalariesofallAbkhaziancitizens.In2016,thebudgetforrepatriationisexpectedtoreach
arecord$2million(Sputnik-abkhazia.ru,February29).
EthnicAbkhazareculturallyclosetotheCircassians,buttheyhistoricallylivedinthesouthern
Caucasus,unliketheCircassians,whoresidedprimarilyintheNorthCaucasus.WhenRussia
conqueredtheCaucasusinthe19thcentury,thetsaristgovernmentdeportedethnicAbkhaz
fromAbkhaziaalongwiththeCircassians.Thus,thereisalargeAbkhazdiasporainTurkey
andelsewhereintheMiddleEast.Atthesametime,ethnicAbkhazarearelativelysmall
groupinAbkhaziaitself.WhenthelastSovietcensuswasconductedin1989,ethnicAbkhaz
madeuplessthanone-fifthofthepopulationoftherepublicabout93,000outof525,000
people.EthnicGeorgiansmadeupabout46percentofAbkhaziastotalpopulationandwere
thelargestethnicgroupintherepublic.EthnicArmeniansandethnicRussiansmadeup
another15percentand14percent,respectively,ofthetotalpopulationofAbkhazia.Since
thenthedemographicsituationinAbkhaziahasdramaticallychanged.DuringtheAbkhaz-
Georgianwarof19921993,Abkhazirregulars,withRussiastacitandexplicitsupport,
expelledthemajorityofethnicGeorgiansfromtheirterritory.Accordingtothe2011census,
thepopulationoftherepublicwasonly241,000,lessthanhalfwhatitwasin1989.About
halfofthetotalcurrentpopulation,122,000people,areethnicAbkhaz(Pop-stat.mashke.org,
accessedMarch16).
TheprecariousdemographicstatusoftheAbkhaz,ontheonehand,pushesthemtolimit
immigrationfromRussiawhile,ontheotherhand,forcingthemtoseekademographicboost,
usingtheirextensivediaspora.AbkhaziaisheavilydependentonRussiaforbothitssecurity
andeconomicwell-being,yetrepeatedattemptsbyRussianofficialstomakeiteasierfor
RussiancitizenstoacquirerealestateinAbkhaziahavefailedsofar,althoughillicittradeis
goingondespitegovernmentregulation(Sputnik-abkhazia.ru,August8,2015).
TheAbkhaziangovernmentsattemptstoboostthepopulationofethnicAbkhazthrough
repatriationhavesofaryieldedrelativelymodestresults.Giventherockyrelationsbetween
Abkhaziasbacker,Russia,andTurkey,wherethebulkoftheAbkhazdiasporaresides,itis
hardtoseehowtherepatriationprogramwillworkinthenearterm.TheAbkhazian
governmentsupportedRussianeconomicsanctionsagainstTurkey,followingthedowningof
theRussianwarplaneontheborderbetweenTurkeyandSyria(Abkhazinform.com,January
12).ThegovernmentinSukhumisupportedthesesanctionseventhoughtheimpoverished
republicquitesubstantiallydependsonTurkishinvestmentsandimportedgoods.Itappears
thatMoscowcaneasilyforceAbkhaziatoactcountertoitsinterestsdespitethefactthat,
formally,Abkhaziaactsasifitisanindependentcountry,recognizedfirstandforemostby
Russiaitself.
EvenbeforetheRussian-Turkishdispute,theAbkhazwerequitewaryofinvitingtheirethnic
kinbacktotheirhomeland.Oneofthesereasonsisreligion.ThemajorityoftheAbkhazwho
resideinAbkhaziaareChristianOrthodoxwhiletherepatriatesaremostlyMuslim.This
createssubstantialtensionsintherepublic,wherethereisnotasinglefunctioningmosqueeven
thoughabout16percentofthepopulationofAbkhaziaisMuslim.Theotherobstaclethat
preventsthemassreturnofethnicAbkhaztotheterritoryisitsweakeconomyandthebleak
prospectsforitsresidents.Anestimated1,700ethnicAbkhazlivedinSyriapriortothestart
ofthewarthere(Onkavkaz.com,March5).About540ofthemhavebeenrepatriatedto
AbkhaziasincethewarinSyriabegan,butabout150ofthemlaterleftAbkhazia.Someof
theSyrianAbkhazleftforEurope,othersfortheRussianNorthCaucasus,whilesomeeven
returnedtoSyria(Sputnik-abkhazia.ru,February29).
TheexperienceofAbkhazrepatriationalsohaslessonsfortheCircassians.Despiteallthe
obstaclestheAbkhazfaceinrepatriatingtheirethnickinfromtheMiddleEast,theystillhave
morefreedomtodosothantheCircassians.AlthoughitishardtocallAbkhaziaasovereign
nation,givenhowmuchtheseparatistrepublicdependsonRussia,itisstillabletoprovide
muchbetterforitsrepatriatesthantheCircassianswhoresideintheNorthCaucasus.This
contrastislikelytoaffectthethinkingoftheCircassiansabouttheirownprogramof
repatriation,especiallyiftheAbkhaziangovernmenteventuallysucceedsinattractingalarger
poolofrepatriates.
--ValeryDzutsati
DagestaniInsurgentsIncludeFormerPolicemenandOtherOfficials
OperationsbyRussiansecurityforcesagainstmilitantsofthearmedIslamistunderground
movementinDagestanarelessfrequentnowthaninpreviousyears,yettheyarestillapartof
lifeforlocalresidents.FollowingaspecialoperationnearthevillageofAvadan,insouthern
Dagestan,atthebeginningofMarch,theauthoritiesunsuccessfullytriedtofindthemembers
ofthejamaatofsouthernDagestan(KavkazskyUzel,March2).OnMarch11,the
governmentintroducedacounterterroristoperationregimeinDagestansKhunzakhand
Botlikhdistricts,whichareinthevicinityofChechnyasmountainsofChechnya(Gazeta.ru,
March11).
Normally,thegovernmentintroducessucharegimeinanareawhenthepolicehave
informationaboutthepresenceofmilitants.Thistime,theauthoritiesidentifiedasmallarmed
groupnearthevillageofOrotainKhunzakhdistrict.Themilitantsfoughtwithgovernment
forcesandretreated,leavingtwomilitantsbehindtoprotecttheirretreat.Thetwomilitants
werekilledadaylater,onMarch12(Kavtoday.ru,March12).Thesecurityforcesfailedto
locatetherestofthegroup,andtheauthoritiesliftedthecounterterroristoperationregimeon
theeveningofMarch12.Aninsurgentwebsitequicklyconfirmedthatthetwomenkilled
wereinsurgents(Vd.ag,March12).TheywereidentifiedasHajimuratGajiev(Abubakr),a
31-year-oldresidentofAkhvakhdistrict,andMagomedGajimagomedov,a32-year-old
residentoftheKhunzakhdistrictvillageofGotsatl.Accordingtothepolice,Gajievwasthe
headoftheterroristgroupinthemountainoussectoroftherepublic(Rosbalt.ru,March12).
Investigatorssaidthatbothrebelsjoinedtheundergroundmovementin2014andwere
involvedinkillingtwopoliceofficersandtheimamofthemosqueinGotsatl(RIANovosti,
March12).TheimaminGotsatl,MagomedZakaryaev,waskilledonApril10,2014,
apparentlybecausehehadcalledforafightagainstSalafismandrejectedneutralityinregard
toMuslimswhoadoptedradicaljihadistviews(KavkazskyUzel,April11,2014).Murdering
thevillageimamprobablyreducedthesupporttherebelshadinthevillage,sinceimamsare
normallyamongthemostrespectedindividualsinacommunityandareinvolvedinvarious
dailyactivitiesofthevillagers.Whensuchamurderiscommittedbyaresidentofanother
village,itisperceivedasapersonalinsulttothetargetedvillage,whichturnstheperpetrators
ofthecrimeintooutcasts.Accordingtorightsactivists,oneoftheslainmilitants,Magomed
Gajimagomedov,wassuspectedofmurderinganotherGotsatlresident,OmarAnasov,who
waskillednearthevillagemosquesentranceonJuly17,2014(KavkazskyUzel,July17,
2014).TheauthoritieschargedGajievandGajimagomedovwithmurder,illegalarms
possessionbygroups,andparticipationinanillegalarmedgroup.
Yet,Orotaresidentsdidnotseemtohaveissueswiththerebels,whocampedoutonthe
outskirtsofthevillage.Photographsoftheircampoutsidethevillageshowcomponentsofan
improvisedexplosivedevice(IED).
Theunusualfeatureoftheslainrebelswastheirassociationwithgovernmentagencies.
MagomedGajimagomedovhadoncebeenapolicecaptain,whileHajimuratGajievwasthe
sonoftherepublicsprosecutorgeneral,hadalawdegreeandwasemployedinthe
prosecutorgeneralsoffice.Gajimagomedovmanagedtocommitthemurdersinhisown
villageandescapeprosecution,usinghisinsideknowledgeofthepolice.Itisprobablynota
coincidencethatmanyinsurgentswhoarekilledorarrestedwereeitherformerpoliceofficers
(Izvestiaur.ru,August18,2010)orofficialswithothergovernmentagencies(Utro.ru,August
8,2012).
SomepeopleinDagestanclaimthepolicesupportthemilitants:otherwise,theysay,itishard
toexplainhowtheinsurgentsmovearoundandmanagetoescapeareassurroundedby
governmentforces.TheserumorsreflectthetacitconfrontationbetweenRussianpolice
officialswhoaredispatchedtoDagestanfromotherregionsofthecountryandthelocal
police,whooftenserveasauxiliaryforcestosealoffcertainareas.Thepolicefromother
RussianregionsdistrusttheirDagestanicolleaguesandconsiderthemunreliablealliesin
fightingtherebels.
ItishardtotellwhetherHajimuratGajievandMagomedGajimagomedovweremembersof
theCaucasusEmirateoroftheso-calledIslamicState,sincetheboundariesbetweenthetwo
organizationsareblurred.
Inanycase,therebelsappeartoberecruitingyoungpeople,includingintellectuals.Thefact
thattherearenowfewerrebelattacksdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatthesituationinDagestan
isimproving.Theundergroundmovementisintheprocessofbecomingabranchofthe
terroristorganizationIslamicStateandgainingstrengthbyspreadingradicalideasand
underminingSufismintherepublic.WhentheSalafisthinkthattheyarestrongenoughto
challengethestatusquoashappenedin1999,whentheyattemptedtoproclaimtheIslamic
RepublicofDagestantheywilllaunchanotheroffensive,whichwillbefarstrongerthanthe
currentone.
--MairbekVatchagaev
Sufi-SalafistTensionDeepensAfterAttackonSalafistClericinIngushetia
Enemiesofthewell-knownSalafistpreacherKhamzatChumakovhavebeenpursuinghimfor
awhile.In2010,animprovisedexplosivedevice(IED)explodedundertheSalafistclerics
car.Chumakovwasbadlywoundedintheblast,losinghisleg,butheremainedaliveand
returnedtopreachingshortlythereafter(Interfax,March11).Followingthatfirstattempton
Chumakovslife,somepeopleintherepublicspeculatedthattheinsurgentstargetedhimfor
hiscallsforpeace(Interfax,March11).However,itbecameincreasinglyclearthatthe
insurgentsprobablydidnottargetChumakov,becauseheremainedastaunchcriticofthe
Sufis.TheIngushSalafistclericgainedwidespreadrecognitioninIngushetiapreciselybecause
ofhiscriticismofSufism,especiallywithregardtocertainritualsandreligiousviews.

ThelatestattackonChumakovoccurredonMarch11,nearthemosquewherehewas
scheduledtogiveasermon.Thebombwasplantedinacarthathadbeenboughtbyan
unknownindividualinDagestan,anditwasdetonatedremotely(Mk.ru,March13).The
attackmayhavebeenawarning.Asourceinthelocalpolicesaid:Wedidnothaveterrorist
attacksforawhileandnowsuddenlywegetthisbigexplosion.Theattackersmostlikelytried
toavoidcasualtiesandsendsomemessage(Zona.Media,March11).Thedriverofacar
passingbywasinjured,butChumakovhimselfrefusedanymedicaltreatmentandleftthe
sceneimmediatelyaftertheincident.
KhajimuratGatsalov,themuftioftheneighboringrepublic,NorthOssetiaAlania,reactedto
theattemptonChumakovslifesincehehimselfhasbeenunderpressurefromtheauthorities
forsometime.Gatsalovcalledonthemosqueparishionerstodefendtheirimams:The
believersshouldguardandprotecttheirimams.ThisistherealityintheCaucasustoday,
unfortunately(seeEDM,January15).UnliketheNorthOssetianmufti,IsmailBerdiev,the
chairmanoftheCoordinationCenteroftheMuslimsoftheNorthCaucasus,whoisessentially
themuftioftheMuslimsoftheNorthCaucasus,attemptedtoputtheblamefortheattackon
thevictimhimself.BerdievsuggestedthatsomeofChumakovsfollowerswhohad
disagreementswithhimmayhaveattackedhim(ZonaMedia,March11).Themuftiofthe
NorthCaucasustherebypracticallysidedwiththeauthorities.
Atthesametime,inChechnya,whichalsoneighborsIngushetia,regionalofficialspretended
thatnothinghadhappened,eventhoughtheChechenauthoritieshadrecentlythreatened
ChumakovforhiswrongsermonsandmisleadingthepeoplewithhisSalafistviews.Itis
impossibleforanyonetopreachaSalafistmessageinChechnya,wherejustindicatingSalafist
sympathiescanhaveseriousrepercussionswiththeauthoritiesandtherepublicsofficialmufti
(KavkazskyUzel,February3).InIngushetia,neithercivilactivists,norofficials,nor
ChumakovsfollowersdaredtoevenhintthatRamzanKadyrovspeoplemayhavebeen
involvedintheassassinationattempt.ChechnyaistheonlyrepublicintheNorthCaucasus
wherenotasingleSalafistmosqueofficiallyexists(that,however,doesnotmeanthatthere
arenoSalafistsintherepublic).
AccordingtoIngushcivilrightsactivistBagaudinKhautiev,variouspoliticalforcesinthe
republicmayhavebeenbehindtheattackonChumakov.Onepossiblereasonfortheattack
couldhavebeentheconflictbetweentheSalafistclericandthemuftiofIngushetia,Isa
Khamkhoev(KavkazskyUzel,February3).SomefiguresintheadministrationofIngushetias
governormayalsohavebeenangrywithChumakovforhiscriticismofcorruptionamong
republicanofficials(Galgayche.org,March13).AccordingtoKhautiev,Moscowshould
interveneinthesituationintherepublictopreventitfromslidingintothekindofcycleof
violenceitexperiencedatthebeginningofthe2000s.
Inreality,however,neithertheconflictbetweenChumakovandKhamkhoevnortheofficials
disgruntlementwithChumakovscriticismoftheircorruptpracticesisthemainsourceofthe
conflict.AuthoritiesintheNorthCaucasusaretryingdesperatelytopreventthespreadof
Salafistideologyintheregion.EvensuchswornenemiesasIngushetiasgovernorYunus-Bek
YevkurovandChechnyasgovernorRamzanKadyrovarepreparedtoputasidetheir
differencestofightwhattheyregardastheircommonadversarySalafistteachings.Partof
theNorthCaucasianpopulationhasswitchedfromSufismtoSalafism.Stepbystep,
ChumakovhasbuiltalargecommunityofMuslimswhorejectSufism.Hisinfluencespans
Ingushetia,theNorthCaucasusandbeyond:indeed,thesermonsoftheIngushSalafistcleric
aretranslatedintoRussianandcirculatedaroundtheworld.Itcanbesaidwithcertaintythat
ChumakoviscurrentlyoneofthemostinfluentialSalafistpreachersintheentireregion.
ChumakovhasincreasinglyopenlychallengedSufism,whichmeansheisnotonlychallenging
theauthoritiesofIngushetiaorChechnya,butalsoanymemberoftheSufimajorityin
IngushetiawhowasoffendedbyChumakovspreachingagainstSufism.Therefore,therearea
numberofpersonsingovernmentstructureswhomighthavestagedorevensupportedsuch
anattackonthecleric.Thisparticularcaseofviolenceindicatesthatthetensionsbetweenthe
SufimajorityandSalafistminorityinIngushetiaandacrosstheNorthCaucasuswillcontinue
toincreaseastheSufi-Salafistdividefurtherdeepens.
--MairbekVatchagaev
AttackinGroznyonMemberofPresidentialCouncilForcesKremlinResponse
OnMarch16,awell-knownhumanrightsactivist,IgorKalyapin,whoheadstheCommittee
forthePreventionofTorture,wasattackedinGrozny,Chechnya.SoonafterKalyapins
arrivalinGrozny,theadministrationofthehotelwherehewasstayingaskedhimtoleavethe
premises.Aftertherightsactiviststeppedoutofthehotel,amobattackedhim,usingeggs,
flourandothersubstances.Theassailantsquicklyretreatedaftertheattackandthepolice
reportedlydidnotgoafterthem.Theattackcameonlydaysafteranotherhigh-profile
incident,inwhichunidentifiedindividualsbeatupagroupofjournalistsandrightsactivistsnear
theChechen-Ingushadministrativeborder(KavkazskyUzel,March16).
KalyapinhasrepeatedlycriticizedthegovernorofChechnya,RamzanKadyrov,forhuman
rightsviolations,somanyobserversassumedthatKadyrovwasbehindtheattack.The
Russiangovernmenthasnotbeenknowntocaremuchabouthumanrightsactivists.Igor
Kalyapin,however,isamemberoftheCouncilforHumanRightsunderthePresidentofthe
RussianFederation,whichmeantMoscowhadtoreacttotheincident,atleastinsomeway.
Also,twosuccessiveattacksonrightsactivistsinandaroundChechnyahavehada
cumulativeeffect.
OnMarch17,theRussianpresidentsspokesman,DmitryPeskov,statedthattheattackon
KalyapinwasconnectedtotheearlierassaultontherightsactivistsinIngushetia.Peskov
diplomaticallycalledtheincidentacontinuationofthecriminalandquitedangerousattack,
whichoccurredbefore,ontheborderwithIngushetia.Thisisaverydangeroustrend,whichis
certainlyacauseforconcern.TheheadoftheRussianpresidentialhumanrightscouncil,
MikhailFedotov,statedthathewouldinsistonlaunchingacriminalcaseagainstthe
perpetratorsoftheattack(Lenta.ru,March17).
EventhenotorioushumanrightsombudsmanofChechnya,NurdiNukhazhiev,condemned
theaggression,sayingthattheattackontheheadoftheCommitteeforthePreventionof
TortureIgorKalyapinisquiteanunpleasantevent.ItdoesnotbodewellfortheChechen
RepublicandtheChechenpeople.Iwanttourgeouryoungpeoplenevertodosuchathing
again.Whoeverheis,forusaguestisaninviolableperson(Rbc.ru,March18).
Apro-Kremlinjournalistwell-knownintheNorthCaucasus,MaksimShevchenko,whohas
beenquitesupportiveofKadyrovandhispoliciesinChechnya,statedthattheChechen
authoritiesmustquicklyinvestigatetheincidentandpunishtheperpetrators(Kavkazskaya
Politika,March18).
TheattackonKalypin,particularlycoupledwiththeviolentharassmentofjournalistsand
rightsactivistsinIngushetia,doesnotcomeatagoodtimeforRamzanKadyrov.The
ChechengovernorsterminofficeendsonApril5,andheisstillwaitingforPutinsapproval
torunforthepostagain.Fromthelegalstandpoint,thesituationisquiteawkwardsince
ChechnyaformallyelectsitsgovernoralongwithotherRussianregionsthroughdirectpopular
elections.UnliketheotherrepublicsoftheNorthCaucasus,Chechnyadidnotoptoutof
directgubernatorialelections.Yet,forsomereason,KadyroviswaitingforPutinsapprovalto
runforoffice.Twoweeksbeforehistermasgovernorrunsout,Kadyrovstilldoesnotseem
toknowwhetherhewillbeallowedtorunforthegovernorspostornot.
Reportedly,MoscowisstillconsideringappointingKadyrovtoapositionatthefederallevel.
TheideaistodecoupleKadyrovfromChechnyaandreplaceahighlyindependentrulerof
Chechnyawhowieldsalargesupportbase,includingasmallpersonalarmy,withasafe
RussianbureaucratwithoutasupportbasewhocaneasilybecontrolledbyMoscow.Oneof
theproposedcompromisesincludedgivingKadyrovthepositionofheadoftheNorth
CaucasianFederalDistrict.However,mostoftheNorthCaucasiangovernorswouldlikely
resentitifoneofthemwassuddenlyelevatedandputinchargeofoverseeingtheirwork.At
thesametime,KadyrovwouldlikelysuspectthatMoscowwantstodetachhimfrom
Chechnyaandcuthimofffromhissupportbaseintherepublic.Also,ifMoscowappoints
KadyrovastheheadoftheNorthCaucasianFederalDistrict,itsplansforfurthermergers
andpartitionsoffederaldistrictsinsouthernRussiamaybederailed.Accordingtosome
sources,MoscowisconsideringmergingtheSouthernandNorthCaucasusfederaldistricts.
SomesuggestthatCrimeamaybeamalgamatedintotheSouthernFederalDistrict
(Onkavkaz.com,March14).
IfMoscowdecidestomergetheSouthernandNorthCaucasusfederaldistricts,itishighly
unlikelythatitwillappointKadyrovtoheadit.TheonlyregionintheNorthCaucasian
FederalDistrictwithapredominantlyethnic-Russianpopulation,Stavropol,hasrepeatedly
revoltedagainstbeingmadepartofadistrictthatincludesethnicallynon-Russianrepublics.
EthnicRussianswouldbeevenmoreresentfulifaChechenweretogovernaunitedfederal
districtinsouthernRussia,whichmakessuchadevelopmentquiteunlikely.
WithKadyrovstermasgovernortermquicklyrunningout,thesituationsurrounding
Chechnyasrulerremainsquitetense.ItappearsthatpressureismountingontheKremlinto
makeKadyrovalessvisibleperson,whichwouldmeanremovinghimfromthepostof
governor.TheKremlinapparentlyhasnotyetdecidedwhattodonextinChechnya.Political
transitionsfollowinganauthoritarianrulerarehardnotonlyatthenationallevelbutalsoatthe
regionallevel,whichislikelytopreventMoscowfrommakingdecisivemovesintherepublic
anytimesoon.
--ValeryDzutsati
InternationalCrisisGroup:RussiaDeliberatelyExportedJihadistoMiddleEast
OnMarch16,theInternationalCrisisGroup(ICG)presentedareporttitledTheNorth
CaucasusInsurgencyandSyria:AnExportedJihad?AccordingtotheICG,theRussian
securityservicesopenedtheborderstoallowradicalsfromtheNorthCaucasustotravel
freelytotheMiddleEastin20132014.Thus,inthelead-uptothe2014SochiOlympics,
MoscowtoanextentresolveditsinsurgencyproblemintheNorthCaucasus.Afterthe
Olympics,inthesecondhalfof2014,theRussiangovernmentpassedtoughlawsagainst
unwantedmercenariesthatpracticallybarredrebelsfromreturninghomewithoutfacing
seriousrepercussions.AsaresultoftheRussiangovernmentsmaneuvering,theradicalswere
supposedtostayoutsideRussia,which,inturn,wouldhelpMoscowindealingwiththefew
remainingmilitantsintheNorthCaucasus(Crisisgroup.org,March16).
TheICGsreportclaimstoexplainhowandwhytheRussianauthoritiesmanagedtoavoid
violentattacksduringtheOlympicsinSochi,in2014.Inaddition,thelevelofviolenceinthe
NorthCaucasusalsodroppedinthepasttwoyears,soMoscowhaspartiallyresolvedthe
radicalizationissueintheregion.Forexample,therewere258victimsofinsurgency-related
violence(bothkilledandwounded)in2015,amorethantwo-folddeclinefromtheprevious
year,whentherewere525victims(KavkazskyUzel,February10).However,itisunclear
howsustainablethateffectwillbe.ManymilitantshavealreadyreturnedfromtheMiddleEast
totheNorthCaucasus.TheIslamicState(IS)hasalsocooptedthemajorityofformer
membersoftheoncemostpowerfulinsurgentgroupintheregion,theCaucasusEmirate.
RussianowhastodealwiththeISintheNorthCaucasuseventhoughnomassiveinfluxofIS
fightersfromabroadhastakenplace.

AfterPresidentVladimirPutinunexpectedlyannouncedthewithdrawalofRussianforcesfrom
Syria,someRussiananalystswerehopingthattheISwouldstoptargetingRussia.However,a
well-knownRussianexpertonIslamofDagestaniorigin,AhmedYarlykapov,warnedthatthe
ISislikelytocontinuetargetingRussiaregardlessofthechangeofpolicyinSyria.Yarlykapov
saidthatrecentattacksbyarebelgroupaffiliatedwiththeISinsouthernDagestanindicated
howseriousthethreatis.HesaidthegovernmentshouldavoidcrackingdownonMuslim
groupssimplybecauseitdoesnotlikethem.InsteadofdividingMuslimsintogoodand
bad,hesaid,thegovernmentshoulddistanceitselfequallyfromallMuslimgroupsandfight
onlythosethatareaggressiveandtrulyradical(KavkazskayaPolitika,March17)TheICG
alsosuggeststhattheRussianauthoritiesshouldprotectmoderateMuslimclerics.However,a
recentattackontheIngushSalafistclericKhamzatChumakovindicatesthatMoscows
approachtowardreligiousfiguresitdoesnotfullycontrolremainsquiteharsh(Kavkazsky
Uzel,March16).
TheRussiangovernmentappearstobeactingcontrarytowhattheexpertsareurging.On
March10,followingacontroversialtrialinMoscow,theauthoritiessentencedsixDagestani
nationalstolengthyprisonterms.Prosecutorssaidthatthegrouphadplannedterroristattacks
in2014,learninghowtomakeimprovisedexplosivedevices(IED)andbuyingthenecessary
equipment.However,theirlawyerclaimedtheinvestigatorsfoundfingerprintsontheIEDthat
didnotbelongtoanyofthesuspects.Thesuspectsalsohadnoaddressintheirbrowsing
historyofthewebsitetheyallegedlyaccessedtoobtaintheinformationonmakingIEDs.A
friendofthesuspectstoldthenewspaperKommersantthatallsixindividualscamefromthree
smallvillagesinDagestansKhivadistrictandwererelatedtoeachother.Moreover,the
suspectswereapparentlyrelatedtooneofthemostnotoriousinsurgentleadersinsouthern
Dagestan,GasanAbdullaev(a.k.a.AbuYasir),whoisknownforafailedattempttoderaila
high-speedtrainintheMoscowregionbackin2011.Healsoallegedlyrecruitedandused
suicidebombers.ThepolicereportedlyhavebeenhuntingforAbdullaevforthepastseven
yearsandcarriedoutdozensofspecialoperationstargetinghimandhisgroup.Havingfailed
tocatchAbdullaev,theDagestanipolicereportedlytookrevengeonhisrelativesbyproviding
somecompromisinginformationonthemtotheRussianauthorities(Kommersant,March11).
AfterRussianauthoritiesexportedpartofsouthwesternRussiasrebelpopulationtothe
MiddleEast,thesecuritysituationintheNorthCaucasusevidentlyimproved.Anadditional
benefitforRussiawasthattheNorthCaucasianmilitantscontributedtothehavocinthe
MiddleEast,whichinturnhelpedcreatetheEuropeanrefugeecrisis.However,itisunclear
whethertheRussiangovernmentwillnowbeabletokeepthehardenedNorthCaucasian
militantsoutofthecountry.DependingonthesituationintheMiddleEast,someofthe
militantsmaywanttoreturnhome.MilitantsfromabroadmayalsosupporttheNorth
CaucasianbranchoftheIS,whichmakestheRussianstrategyofexportingmilitantstothe
MiddleEastashortsightedpolicy.
--ValeryDzutsati
NumberofPeopleRegisteredinRussiaasExtremistsContinuestoGrow
InanattempttodecreasetensionsintheNorthCaucasus,theRussianauthoritiessetoutto
registerallpotentialextremistswhomightcarryoutaterroristattack,intheopinionofthe
policeandtheFederalSecurityService(FSB).Sincethestartof2016,reportsstartedto
emergedetailingthenumberofextremistsandtheirlocations.InDagestanalone,the
authoritiesreportedlyregistered14,000peopleaspotentialextremists(Riadagestan.ru,
March3).AccordingtotheProsecutorGeneralsOfficeofDagestan,theauthorities
registeredatleast15,000potentialextremists(Chernovik.net,March1).Amemberofthe
CouncilforHumanRightsunderthePresidentofRussia,MaksimShevchenko,saysthe
Dagestaniauthoritiesregisteredabout100,000peopleaspotentiallyunreliable(Echo.msk.ru,
February25).
TheestimatesofextremistsinDagestanarequitehigh,especiallygiventhatthereareabout
21,000policeofficersintherepublic.Asarule,thepoliceregistersindividualswhohave
disagreementswiththegovernmentasunreliableandextremist.InMakhachkalaalone,the
policeregistered1,581followersofextremistreligiousteachings,morethanhalfofwhom
862individualswereregisteredin2014.ThepolicetookDNAsamplesfrom105followers
ofnon-traditionalIslam.Thepolicealsoidentified31individualswhowenttofightinSyria
andputthemonthewantedlist(Kavpolit.com,March4).
Accordingtoofficialstatistics,thenumberofcrimescommittedbythearmedundergroundin
theNorthCaucasushasbeendecliningeveryyear.Atthesametime,thenumberofterrorist
crimesappearstobeincreasing.Forexample,thegovernmentreported365terroristcrimes
in2013,whilethenumberofterroristcrimesroseto473in2014andto679in2015.These
figuresdonotincludelessseriousterrorism-relatedcrimes,suchasextremism.In2015,82
extremism-relatedcrimeswereregisteredinRussia.Theriseinterrorism-relatedcrimes
indicatesthattensionsinsocietyaregrowingsomethingthatcanalsobeseeninthegrowth
ofanumberofarmedincidents,from1,558in2013to2,039in2015.
Evidencesuggeststhatthesituationisunfoldinginunexpectedways.OnFebruary25,the
NationalAssemblyofDagestanpassed,initsfirstreading,alawtitledOntheProphylacticof
theExtremistActivitiesintheRepublicofDagestan.Thenewlegislationissupposedto
replaceanoldlawthatmadeWahhabismillegal.TheDagestanigovernmentbanned
WahhabismatthestartofthesecondRussian-Chechenwarin1999.Duringadiscussionof
thenewlegislation,Dagestansgovernmenttoldmembersoftherepublicsparliamentthatit
wasdesignedtoreplacethe1999law,sayingitwaslegallyflawed.TheDagestaniparliament
hadtriedtoabolishittwoyearsearlier(Dagestanpost.ru,May15,2014).
However,referencestoabolishingthepreviouslegislationoutlawingWahhabismsomewhat
disappearedfromthedraftlawthatwaspublishedontherepublicanparliamentswebsite.It
appearsthattherepublicangovernmentdecideditwastooearlytoabolishtheoutlawingof
Wahhabismintherepublic(thelawoftheRepublicofDagestanpassedonSeptember22,
1999,OntheBanofWahhabiandotherExtremistActivitiesontheTerritoryoftheRepublic
ofDagestan)(Nsrd.ru,March2).
TheauthoritiescompilelistsofextremistsnotonlyinDagestanbutacrosstheRussian
Federation.AccordingtotheheadofthegovernmentagencyRosfinmonitoring(theRussian
FederalFinancialMonitoringService),YuriChikhanchin,thegovernmentlastyearaloneput
1,500individualsontheterroristwatchlist(Echo.msk.ru,March9).Thatismostlikelyonly
thetipoftheiceberg,becausethenumberofindividualsreturningfromtheMiddleEastto
Russiawhoareputonthelistofextremistsisconstantlygrowing.Thosepeoplewhofightfor
RussianinterestsinUkraineareexcludedfromthelist.Atthestartof2016,RussiasMinistry
ofInteriorandtheFSBjointlymonitoredover2,800RussiancitizenswhowenttoSyriaand
Iraqtofight.Additionally,theauthoritieslaunchedcriminalinvestigationstargeting889
militantswhoreturnedtoRussiaandidentified92recruitersforillegalforeignarmedgroups
(Rbc.ru,December25,2015).
ThenumberofmilitantswhoreturnedfromSyriatoRussiaisaquiteimpressivefigurethat
indicateshowlargethethreattoRussiais.Sincesomeofthemilitantswhoreturnwillremain
unknowntothegovernment,theriskthatradicalsoftheso-calledIslamicStatewillstrike
Russiaisquitehigh.DuringameetingwithPresidentVladimirPutin,Rosfinmonitoringhead
ChikhanchinsaidthatRussianssendtheequivalentofseveralhundredthousanddollars
abroadeachyeartohelpIslamists(Newsru.com,March9).Itisquitestrikingthatpeoplein
RussiaarestillfinancingIslamicStatemembersoutsidethecountrydespitethehighrisksin
doingso.
Registeringeverybodywhowearsabeardorhijabandidentifyingthemassupportersof
radicalIslamisunlikelytohelpRussiaimprovethesecuritysituationintheNorthCaucasus.
Currently,ordinarypoliceofficersdecidewhoisradical,whichindicatesthatRussiahasno
methodsofidentifyingsupportersofradicalteachings.So-calledspecialistsonIslamoftenput
disenfranchisedindividuals,whoserightsorwhoserelativesrightswereviolatedbythe
government,onthelistofradicals.TheRussiangovernmentappearstoberushingfromone
extremetoanother,withoutrealizingthateverythingitdoesisharmingRussiaitself.
--MairbekVatchagaev
WithPutinsBlessing,KadyrovContinuestoExpandRolesandMissionsof
ChechenSpecialForces
RamzanKadyrovssubstantialinterestinthedevelopmentoftheChechenspecialforceshas
beennotedbefore(seeEDM,March27,2015).Chechnyasrulertriestoportraytheseunits
asmodelRussianarmedforces.AretiredofficeroftheAlphaGroup,theRussianelitespecial
forcesunit,isinvolvedintrainingtheChechenservicemen,whichmeansMoscowisquite
awareofKadyrovsmilitaryendeavors.Totrainhisspecialforces,Kadyrovbuiltalarge
moderntrainingcenterintheareaoftheChechentownofGudermes.Thetrainingcenter,
unlikeothersimilarcentersinRussia,isaprivateenterprise(Rbc.ru,February11).Kadyrov
planstobuildanentirecitywithinthewallsofthetrainingcenter,whichwillincludeaschool,
prison,railway,subwayandanaircraftrunway.Chechnyasgovernorhasalsoannouncedto
authoritiesthatoneofthelargestparachutecentersinRussiawillbebuiltinChechnya.The
facilitywillbeattheInternationalTrainingCenterforSpecialForces,betweenthevillageof
TsentoroiandthecityofGudermes(VestnikKavkaza,March2).AccordingtoKadyrovs
advisoronthetrainingofspecialforces,DaniilMartynov,besidesprovidingdrillingfacilities
forthespecialforces,thetrainingcenterwillbeopentovisitsbymembersoftheChechen
publicandtourists.
TheRussianpublicstartedtopaygreaterattentiontotheChechenspecialforcesafter
KadyrovsrashadmissionthathispeoplewereinvolvedintheSyrianconflict(Russia.tv,
February7,about1hourand18minutesin).Kadyrovsstatementcontradictedtheofficial
RussianpositionthatnoRussiangroundforcesweredeployedinSyria.Chechenauthorities
latercorrectedthestatement,sayingthatitwasnotaChechenspecialforcesunitthatwas
presentinSyria,butratheraRussianfederalmilitaryunit,whichwasnotinvolvedinthe
groundoperationsinthatcountry(Dp.ru,February8).
Lastyear,theChechenauthoritiestrumpetedthevictoriesofChechenspecialforcesinan
internationalcompetitionofspecialforcesheldinJordaninthespringof2015,describing
themasatriumph(RIANovosti,April24,2015).Groznydecidedtocreateanothermilitary
unitthatwouldbeabletooperateinextremeconditions.BeforetheendofMarchofthisyear,
theChechenauthoritiesplantodispatchtherepublicsspecialforcesunittotheNorthPole.
Kadyrovsparatrooperswillpracticeconductingcombatoperationsintheharshclimatethere
(Vesti.ru,March20).
OnhispersonalInstagramaccount,Kadyrovstatedthathisaide,formerRussiansecurity
forcesofficerDaniilMartynov,willoverseedispatchingtheChechenspecialforcestothe
NorthPole(Instagram.com,March20).Suchanoperationwillrequiresignificant
expenditurestoensurereliablecommunicationsandsecurityforthegroupintheharsh
environmentoftheNorthPole,whichmeansthatitisbeingsupportedbytheRussianstate.
SpecialistshaveaskedwhyChechenspecialforceswerecreatedwhentheRussianmilitary
alreadyhasAlphaandothereliteunits.Severalyearsago,theoppositionnewspaperNovaya
GazetaestimatedthatKadyrovsforceswerequitesubstantial,numberingfrom10,000to
30,000men(Onkavkaz.com,March21).ChechnyaistheonlyregioninRussiaallowedto
maintainitsownregionalarmedforces.ButwhydoesMoscownotallowotherregionsofthe
NorthCaucasustohavetheirownspecialforces?Thesecuritysituationinneighboring
Dagestan,forexample,hasbeenfarworsethaninChechnyasinceatleast20082010.
ThegameswithChechenforcesstrikinglyresembletheexperiencesoftheRussianEmpirein
thepast.Atthetime,theNorthCaucasianmountaineerswerepartoftheRussianEmperors
personalguards,asthemountaineersprotectedhislifefrompossiblecoupattempts.
Currently,whenMoscowspendssubstantialresourcesontrainingtheChechenswhoareloyal
toRussia,theanalogieswiththeRussianimperialpastarequitestrong.
ByallowingKadyrovtopursuethisprogram,PresidentVladimirPutiniscreatingtheonly
ethnic-basedunitofspecialforcesinRussia.ItwillbelogicaliftheRussianpresident
eventuallygrantstheChechenspecialforcesfederalstatusandmakesthemhispersonal
specialforcesunit,thoughthiswould,ineffect,contraveneRussianlaws.Atfirst,itseemed
theauthoritieswerepreparingtheChechenspecialforcesfordeploymentintheNorth
CaucasusbecausetheChechensknowtheareabetterthantheRussianforces,despiteallthe
preparationthelatterundergoattrainingcentersinNalchikandMakhachkala
(Thequestion.ru,January16).However,theChechenunitsplannedlandingattheNorthPole
demonstratesthatMoscowregardstheChechenforcesasatooltobeusednotonlyforthe
problemsintheCaucasusbutalsoforawiderspectrumofproblemsatthenationallevel.
Inthepasthalfyear,hardlyamonthhaspassedbywithouttacticalmilitaryexercisesbeing
heldinChechnya(Regnum,March22).Kremlinofficialsapparentlybelievethatthesituation
inChechnyaremainsunstableandrequiresRussianfederalforcesontheground,suchas
policeunitsfromotherregionsoftheRussianFederation.CentralRussiasTularegion,for
example,recentlydispatched80policeofficerstoChechnya(Mk.ru,March22).Other
Russianregions,fromKaliningradtoSakhalin,alsoregularlysendreinforcementsto
Chechnya.Thus,MoscowdoesnotregardthesituationintheNorthCaucasusasentirely
stable.ItremainsquiteplausiblethatthegovernmentispreparingtheChechenspecialforces
tofulfilltasksintheregioninthenearfutureifthesituationsomehowdeteriorates.
--MairbekVatchagaev
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Subject:
forcesBalticsEuropoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRUeconomyUAeconomyMediaObamaJapanTrumpChinaSyria......
Subject:Fwd:[EARLYLATENIGHTRUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UAUAdefenceindustryNovorossoyaRUstrategyRU
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Subject:[EARLYLATENIGHTRUN][NICMND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UAUAdefenceindustryNovorossoyaRU
strategyRUforcesNATOforcesBalticsEuropoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRUeconomyUAeconomyMediaObama
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Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineUkrainedefenceindustryNovorossoyaRussiastrategyRussianforcesNATOforces
BalticsEuropeanpoliticsFinlandNATOEstoniaRussianeconomyUkraineeconomyMediaObamaJapanTrumpChina
Syria
Somearticlesfromthisweeksofar.
2016
2016
6UkrainianSoldiersWoundedRussian-BackedFightersMountAssaultsOnHighwayToMariupol
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-766/#13036
DispatchFromAvdiivka:HottestpointoffightingonUkraine'sfrontline
http://uatoday.tv/politics/dispatch-from-avdiivka-hottest-point-of-fighting-on-ukraine-rsquo-s-front-line-613978.html
RussianfighterscontinuetoflowintoeastUkraine,USofficialstates
http://www.janes.com/article/58894/russian-fighters-continue-to-flow-into-east-ukraine-us-official-states
30,346casualtieshavebeenrecordedineasternUkrainesincethebeginningoftheconflict.
http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-accidents_and_emergencies/1987995-over-30000-casualties-recorded-in-eastern-ukraine-
un.html
Ukrainedefenceindustry
ThemissileofUkrainianproductionpassedthefiringtestsuccessfully
http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/2439.html
UkrainetestingKrAZ-ShrekandKrAZ-Fionaheavyarmoredvehicles
http://defence-blog.com/army/ukraine-testing-kraz-shrek-and-kraz-fiona-heavy-armored-vehicles.html
Ukraine'sColdWarEraTanksRefitforModernDayWarfare
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-03-21/photos-ukraine-upgrades-its-battle-armor-of-t-72-tanks
Ukrainianarmyreceived16modernizedBTR-4Armouredpersonnelcarriers
http://defence-blog.com/army/ukrainian-army-received-16-modernized-btr-4-armoured-personnel-carriers.html
Novorossoya

Russia-BackedSeparatistsIssue'Passports'InDonetsk
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-donetsk-passports-zakharchenko/27618716.html
SeparatistsLaunchNewPassportizationStrategyinEasternUkraine
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/separatists-launch-new-passportization-strategy-in-eastern-ukraine
Russiastrategy
RussiasNewToolsforConfrontingtheWest:ContinuityandInnovationinMoscowsExerciseofPower
ByKeirGiles
Russianmilitaryinterventionsandassociatedinformationwarfarecampaignsinthepasttwoyearshavenotbeenananomaly.
InsteadtheyareexamplesofRussiaimplementingitslong-standingintenttochallengetheWestnowthatitfeelsstrongenoughto
doso.ForWesterngovernmentsandleaders,anessentialfirststeptowardsmoresuccessfulmanagementoftherelationshipwith
MoscowwouldbetorecognizethattheWestsvaluesandstrategicinterestsandthoseofRussiaarefundamentallyincompatible
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/russias-new-tools-confronting-west#sthash.nOoNVEOO.dpuf
PutinsVisionontheRoadAwayFromDamascus
Putinsregimecanonlystayinpowerbylaunchingmoreadventuresabroad
ByStephenBlank
http://intersectionproject.eu/article/russia-world/putins-vision-road-away-damascus
Astrategyofspectacle
HiswillingnessandabilitytoactabroadgivesVladimirPutinabigboostathome
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21694997-his-willingness-and-ability-act-abroad-gives-vladimir-putin-big-boost-home-
strategy
SentbyStefanForss
Russianforces
NewRussiannavalMiG-29KUBaircraftbegantoflyinYeisk
http://defence-blog.com/news/new-russian-naval-mig-29kub-aircraft-began-to-fly-in-yeisk.html
NewUran-9unmannedcombatgroundvehicletoappearinRussianArmybyyear-end
http://defence-blog.com/army/video-new-uran-9-unmanned-combat-ground-vehicle-to-appear-in-russian-army-by-year-end.html
NATOforces
ArmyWeighingTHAADDeploymentsinEurope,MiddleEast
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/army/2016/03/22/army-weighing-thaad-deployments-europe-middle-
east/82127616/
RomaniatoprocureSpikeanti-tankmissiles
Armatapltete16milioanedeeuropentruracheteantitankSpike
http://www.romanialibera.ro/actualitate/eveniment/armata-plateste-16-milioane-de-euro-pentru-rachete-antitank-spike-410818
VehiclesForThePolishSpecialForces-ProcurementWillStartin2017.TwoStagesofthePegazProgramme
http://www.defence24.com/332776,vehicles-for-the-polish-special-forces-procurement-will-start-in-2017-two-stages-of-the-
pegaz-programme
Baltics
TheBalticElvesTakingonPro-RussianTrolls
Whatatfirstlookedlikeasasocialmediagrudgematchcouldbeaprecursortoinvasion,war,andresistanceintheBaltics.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/20/the-baltic-elves-taking-on-pro-russian-trolls.html
Europeanpolitics
WhatsLeftofEuropeIftheFarRightHasItsWay?
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Far_Right_Europe_0321_web.pdf

Finland
Finnishdefenceministrytargetedbywebattack
TheMinistryofDefencesaysitswebsitecameunderattackonTuesdayafternoon,shortlybeforetheFinnishandRussian
presidentsmetinMoscow.Theministrysaysthisisthesecondsuchdisruptionofitssitethisyear.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/finnish_defence_ministry_targeted_by_web_attack/8761099
NATO
NATONeedstoMoveTwoBrigadesEast,andThatsJustaStart
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/03/nato-russia-summit-2016/126781/
ItsTimetoSharpenNATOsSpearheadForce
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/it-s-time-to-sharpen-nato-s-spearhead-force
NATObreedsfrustration,butisvitaltoolinISfight
http://ktar.com/story/980538/nato-breeds-frustration-but-is-vital-tool-in-is-fight/
Estonia
EstoniaTakesDeliveryofJavelinAnti-TankMissiles
http://estonia.usembassy.gov/pr_eng032016.html
TechHavenEstoniaAttractingU.S.Defense,CybersecurityBusiness
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?List=7c996cd7-cbb4-4018-baf8-
8825eada7aa2&ID=2135&RootFolder=%2Fblog%2FLists%2FPosts
Russianeconomy
MillionsmoreRussianslivinginpovertyaseconomiccrisisbites
Nearly20millionnowsurvivingonwageswhicharebelowthepovertythresholdaccordingtolateststatestatistics
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/millions-more-russians-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites?
CMP=share_btn_tw
RussiacrudeoilexportsonthedeclineRosstat
http://www.unian.info/economics/1299028-russia-crude-oil-exports-on-the-decline-rosstat.html
Ukraineeconomy
Ukraine'sEconomyPlummetedByNearly10PercentIn2015
http://www.rferl.org/content/urkaine-economy-plummeted-nearly-10-percent-2015-financial-consumer-implosion/27627512.html
Media
BBCSaysRussia'sTrollFactoryFakedaVideoShowingaUSSoldierShootingataQuran
http://globalvoices.org/2016/03/23/bbc-says-russias-troll-factory-faked-a-video-showing-a-us-soldier-shooting-at-a-koran/
http://www.bbc.com/russian/society/2016/03/160315_smj_trolls_make_haram_video?SThisFB
Russia'sinformationwarfare-airbrushingreality
RussiaisconductingacoordinatedbutundeclaredinformationcampaignagainsttheUnitedKingdom,attemptingtoinfluencethe
UK'sdomesticdebateonkeyissuesinordertoproduceanoutcomeofbenefittoRussia.ThiscampaignislobbyingforaBritish
exitfromtheEU,thescrappingofTrident,andaScottishexitfromtheUnion-alloutcomeswhichwouldweakentheUKandgive
Russiaafreerhandinworldaffairs.Thisisunacceptablebehaviourbyaforeigngovernment.
2.Thepreciseimpactofthisbehaviourishardtomeasure.However,RussianclaimsthattheScottishindependencereferendum
wasfixedcertainlyfuelledthebroadercampaigntoquestionthevote,[1]andtheKremlin-fundedmediacertainlyamplifiedand
expandedonthoseclaims.Anecdotalevidencesupportsthethesisthatthiscoveragehadatleastsomedegreeofimpactonsome
individualvotersthedegreetowhichthedisinformationhaspenetrateddifferentaudiencesmeritsfurtherstudy.
3.Moreover,regardlessoftheimpactofthisdisinformation,thefactthatadisinformationcampaignisbeingconductedbyRussian
governmentoutletsremainsdemonstrablythecasethatcaseissetoutbelow.Thisbeingso,appropriatelegalanddiplomatic
responsesshouldbebroughttobearbothonthedirectactorsinthedisinformationcampaign,andontheRussiangovernment
morebroadly.
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/defence-committee/russia-implications-for-
uk-defence-and-security/written/30408.html
Obama
TheProblemwiththeObamaDoctrine
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-problem-with-the-obama-doctrine
TheIronyofObamianHistory
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/21/the-irony-of-obamian-history/
[SentbyStefanForss]
Japan
AbepaveswayforRussiavisitbycounterbalancingUkraine
JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbe,caughtbetweenthedesiretoachieveabreakthroughwithRussiaonaterritorialdisputeand
theneedtorespectthestronganti-MoscowstanceoftheU.S.andotherallies,isseekingtomakethemostofJapan'scurrent
positionaschairoftheGroupofSevenadvancedeconomies.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Abe-paves-way-for-Russia-visit-by-counterbalancing-Ukraine
Trump
TrumpquestionsneedforNATO,outlinesnoninterventionistforeignpolicy
the-washington-post/?postshare=2851458585005985&tid=ss_tw
AwhirlwinddayinD.C.showcasesTrumpsunorthodoxviewsandshiftingtone
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-whirlwind-day-in-dc-showcases-trumps-unorthodox-views-and-shifting-
tone/2016/03/21/ef06d276-ef7b-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html
[SentbyStefanForss]
AtranscriptofDonaldTrumpsmeetingwithTheWashingtonPosteditorialboard
TRUMP:Idontwanttouse,Idontwanttostarttheprocessofnuclear.Remembertheonethingthateverybodyhassaid,Ima
counterpuncher.Rubiohitme.Bushhitme.WhenIsaidlowenergy,hesalow-energyindividual,hehitmefirst.Ispent,bythe
wayhespent18milliondollarsworthofnegativeadsonme.Thatsputting[MUFFLED]
RYAN:ThisisaboutISIS.YouwouldnotuseatacticalnuclearweaponagainstISIS?
[CROSSTALK]
TRUMP:Illtellyouonething,thisisaverygoodlookinggroupofpeoplehere.CouldIjustgoaroundsoIknowwhothehell
Imtalkingto?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/03/21/a-transcript-of-donald-trumps-meeting-with-the-washington-
post-editorial-board/
DonaldTrumpfinallynameshisforeignpolicyadvisersincludingonewhothinkstheUScandobusinesswithPutin
http://qz.com/644277/donald-trump-finally-names-his-foreign-policy-advisers-including-one-who-thinks-the-us-can-do-business-
with-putin/
China
ChinaProposesNewCentralAsianMilitaryAlliance
RussiaWarnsofUnilateralActiontoPoliceSyriaCease-fire
http://www.voanews.com/content/russia-warns-of-unilateral-action-to-police-syria-cease-fire/3248604.html
PutinrevealsunitsdeployedtoSyria
http://www.janes.com/article/58952/putin-reveals-units-deployed-to-syria
RussiasayshasspecialforcesunitinSyria-Interfax
http://news.trust.org/item/20160323160655-pzwfz
RussiaadmitstotrainingSyriaKurds
Colonel-GeneralAlexanderDvornikovpraisedthePeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG)duringaninterviewwithRossiyskayaGazeta.
http://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566785-russia-admits-to-training-syria-kurds
-""
http://rg.ru/2016/03/23/aleksandr-dvornikov-dejstviia-rf-v-korne-perelomili-situaciiu-v-sirii.html#ac955904/16964/26
DespiteWithdrawalRussiansContinueToFightAndDieInSyria
http://www.interpretermag.com/despite-withdrawal-russians-continue-to-fight-and-die-in-syria/
RussiajetsdestroyingPalmyra:activists
http://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566778-russia-jets-destroying-palmyra-activists
Russianwarplanesdeliverairstrikesat146facilitiesnearPalmyradefenseministry
http://tass.ru/en/defense/864947
RussianTVbulletinonPalmyrafighting
http://youtu.be/K2CQ5cFReR4
Palmyrasituationmap
http://www.agathocledesyracuse.com/archives/705
RussiaisFlyingIsraeliDronesAgainstAnti-AssadRebelsinSyria
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/24/russia-is-flying-israeli-drones-against-anti-assad-rebels-in-syria.html?
via=mobile&source=email
SixthRussianservicemankilledinSyria
http://citeam.org/sixth-russian-serviceman-killed-in-syria/
http://slon.ru/posts/65735
[ReportonRussianservicemenkilledinSyria]
Russia'sspecialforcesofficerkilledinSyria:agencies
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Mar-24/344006-russian-officer-killed-in-combat-operation-near-syrias-
palmyra-interfax-quotes-russian-military.ashx#.VvQ-Wg-G4sw.twitter
RussiasPyrrhicVictoryinSyria
BeforeandAftertheDrawdown
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2016-03-20/russia-s-pyrrhic-victory-syria
PutinsMasterPlanforSyria
TheKremlinisn'twithdrawingfromthewar-torncountry,it'shopingtotranslateitsrecentgainsintoadiplomaticvictory.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/18/putins-master-plan-for-syria-assad-isis-russia-peace-deal/
_______________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio

Subject:Editors'Picks:Karadzicmakingacomeback???[OHBOY!!]
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EDITORS'PICKS

Thursday,March24

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookatRepublikaSrpska'sreactiontotheconvictionofaformerleader
forwarcrimes

4 OURMANINSERBIA:TheautonomousSerbiangovernmentin
Bosniaisquestioningthewarcrimesverdictagainstitsformer
president,RadovanKaradzic,writesFP'sHenryJohnson:Read
more

CheckoutFP'sEditor'sRoundtablepodcastonouriTunespage.
ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

Subject:ThreeRulesofKremlinPower-TheNewYorkTimes
Justdon'ttakecomfortinthestillworseningeconomicsituationinRussia.TheWesthasalwaysfailedtounderstandthedepthof
sufferingRussianswillabsorbinthenameofGlory.RememberNapoleonHitlerandother"smart"guys?Springingfromnorthern
tundranomads,risingtopowerasvassalsoftheMongolKhan,Russiahasalwayshadanundermenschen'srespectissue.Being
respectedismoreimportanttotheaverageRussianthanbeingfed.Lifeistoughandattimesitgetsimpossible,butlikeanyother
Mafia,nothingismoreimportantthan"respect".That'sPutin'sconnectionwithhis"people".Theywillacceptfarmoresuffering
thantheWestiswillingtoimposeonthem.But,thereisaweaklinkinthatconnection--Blood.Russianswillnotdieforhimin
battle.That'swhyheworked(andworks)sohardtohidetheRussiancasualtiesintheinvasionofUkraine,denyinginformationto
survivors,burialsinobscureplaces,incinerationofbodies,etc.ThecoreObamamiscalculationisimposingeconomicsanctions
thatlowerthestandardoflivingofRussiansinsteadofgivingUkrainetheoffensiveweaponstolowerthenumberoflivingRussian
soldiers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/24/opinion/international/three-rules-of-kremlin-power.html?_r=1
ATarecentawardsceremonyattheKremlinforscientists,artistsandpublicintellectuals,
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiacouldnthelpbutrecounthiscountrys
achievements.Buthealsoofferedawordofcaution.Westillhavealotofunsolved
problemsandquestions,hesaid.Itiscertainlynotimeforustobedizzywithsuccess.
Dontbedeceivedbysuchexpressionsofhumility.ManyRussiansviewMr.Putinas
highlysuccessfulandthepresidenthimselfverymuchagrees.Hisapprovalratinghas
reachedlevelsupwardof80percentfornearlytwoyears,andfew,certainlynoneata
Kremlinevent,aremakingapubliccaseforredefiningorevenamendingthenotionof
whatconstitutesaMoscowleaderssuccess.
Taketheeconomy.Throughouttheyearsofoil-drivengrowth,economicperformancewas
ameasureofsuccess.Nolonger.Russianofficialsprojectthattheeconomywillcontract
1percentto1.5percentthisyear,providedoilpricesstaywithinthe$35-$40rangeper
barrel,afterhavingshrunk3.7percentin2015.Growthisntexpectedtoarriveuntil2017
andonlyifthepriceofoilaverages$52ormoreabarrel,bynomeansacertainty.
Thenewsgetsworse.Realincomesarefallingforthesecondyearnow.Thecountrys
infrastructureisinterribleshape,whileinvestmentisgoingdownforthefourthyearina
row.PeoplearelosingjobsandRussiaislosingtalent.Butevenifsomepeoplerecognize
thesethingsasfailures,theyarenotgenerallyviewedasMr.Putinsresponsibility.The
outcomesmaybeunpopularbutthedecisionsthatcausedthemarenot.
Hisuseofthephrasedizzywithsuccessmayhelpexplainwhy.
EveryRussianknowstheslogan:ItwastheheadlineofanarticlewrittenbyJosephStalin
in1930forthenewspaperPravda,hismessengerofchoice.StalinwroteDizzyWith
SuccessattheheightofhiscampaigntoturnSovietfarmersintoanagricultural
proletariat.Inlessthanayeartensofmillionsofpeasantswerebayonetedintojoining
newcollectivefarms.Thosewhoresistedwerearrestedorexiled.IntheyearthatStalin
waswritingaboutsuccess,morethanthreemillionpeasantswereinrevolt.Millionsdied
asaresultofdeportationsorfamine.Thecountrysagriculturaleconomyneverfully
recovered,buttheleaderatthetopremainedpopular.EventodayStalinenjoysastaunch
althoughbynomeansuniversalfollowingamongmycountrymen.
Stalinwasassertingthatcollectivizationwasasuccessexceptforisolatedcasesof
overzealousbureaucracy.Hetookcreditforestablishingasocializedagricultureinjusta
fewmonthsandshiftedblameforthemanybrutalitiesinvolvedtolocalauthoritiesand
others.Manyofthosepeoplewerelaterarrestedandpunished.
MypointisnottodrawadirectcomparisonbetweenStalinandMr.Putin:Theyarevery
differentleaderslivinginverydifferenttimes.Ijustcannothelpnoticingthattheyseem
tofollowthesameplaybookforbeingasuccessfulautocrat.
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Indeed,iftherewereasecretmanualdescribingtheKremlinsartofgovernance,itwould
almostcertainlyincludethreerulesthatbothmenhavemastered.
RuleNo.1callsforattributingallvictoriestooneselfregardlessofwhoorwhat
contributedtotheperceivedsuccess.Avictoryinwarwonbythepeopleatimpossible
costhastobeascribedtotheleader.Prosperity,evenifagiftfromMotherNatureor
marketforces,isanachievementoftheruler.
RuleNo.2:Failuresmustbeascribedtosubordinatesorexternalforces.Stalindidnt
inventthistrickbutheperfecteditwithbrutalefficiency.Hecreateddisasterafter
disaster,buthisassociatesandsubjectsjustkeptadmiring,oratleastfearing,him.
RuleNo.3istheabilitytomanipulatewhatusedtobecalledthepartyline.OnedayHitler
isanenemy,thenextafriend,thenlateranenemyonceagain.Onedayleft-wingforces
arethepartysenemies,thenextdayitsbestfriends.
Mr.Putinhasprovedadeptatallthree.Hetookcreditfortheoil-driveneconomicboom
(ruleNo.1).Thenwhentheeconomytanked,hehasallowedblametobeplacedonhis
ministers,particularlyPrimeMinisterDmitriA.Medvedev,orpointedafingeratthe
West(ruleNo.2).
Andhehaschangedthepartylinewithdizzyingagility(ruleNo.3).OnedayRussiaisa
business-friendlyeconomy,thenextitisastatistpower.OnedayRussiaisbusy
integratingwiththeformerSovietrepublics,thenextdayitisfightingthem.Oneday
Russiaproclaimssovereigntysacred,thenextdayitannexesCrimea,aneighboring
countrysterritory.Thenextdayitagainproclaimssovereigntysacred,tojustify
proppingupthebeleagueredregimeofPresidentBasharal-AssadinSyria.
Syriaisoneofthosesuccessstoriesforwhichtheczarisenjoyingcreditwhileotherswill
havetomanagethethornyconsequences.ThisweekSecretaryofStateJohnKerryheads
toMoscowtodiscussSyriawithMr.Putin.Thisisthealtitudeatwhichtheczarsfly.Isnt
itneat?Thisisalsohowhecanstaypopularwhilethenationseconomyisgoingnowhere.
AndthisistheflipsideofthemythofPutinleadershipthatinsomequartersofEurope
andeventheUnitedStates,otherwould-beczarsseektoemulate.
MaximTrudolyubov,editoratlargeforthebusinessnewspaperVedomosti,writesTheRussiaFileblogforthe
KennanInstituteandisafellowattheBoschAcademyinBerlin.
Senttime: 03/25/201611:30:56AM
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue59
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INTHISISSUE
*KadyrovannouncesChechenspecialforcestrainingmissiontotheNorthPole
*RussianoppositionactivistsandproponentsofreturntotruefederalismmeetinLithuania
*Belarusiangovernmentcracksdownoncorruptbusinesspractices,butmotivesare
questioned

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
WithPutinsBlessing,KadyrovContinuestoExpandRolesandMissionsof
ChechenSpecialForces

RamzanKadyrovssubstantialinterestinthedevelopmentoftheChechenspecialforceshas
beennotedbefore(seeEDM,March27,2015).Chechnyasrulertriestoportraytheseunits
asmodelRussianarmedforces.AretiredofficeroftheAlphaGroup,theRussianelitespecial
forcesunit,isinvolvedintrainingtheChechenservicemen,whichmeansMoscowisquite
awareofKadyrovsmilitaryendeavors.Totrainhisspecialforces,Kadyrovbuiltalarge
moderntrainingcenterintheareaoftheChechentownofGudermes.Thetrainingcenter,
unlikeothersimilarcentersinRussia,isaprivateenterprise(Rbc.ru,February11).Kadyrov
planstobuildanentirecitywithinthewallsofthetrainingcenter,whichwillincludeaschool,
prison,railway,subwayandanaircraftrunway.Chechnyasgovernorhasalsoannouncedto
authoritiesthatoneofthelargestparachutecentersinRussiawillbebuiltinChechnya.The
facilitywillbeattheInternationalTrainingCenterforSpecialForces,betweenthevillageof
TsentoroiandthecityofGudermes(VestnikKavkaza,March2).AccordingtoKadyrovs
advisoronthetrainingofspecialforces,DaniilMartynov,besidesprovidingdrillingfacilities
forthespecialforces,thetrainingcenterwillbeopentovisitsbymembersoftheChechen
publicandtourists.

TheRussianpublicstartedtopaygreaterattentiontotheChechenspecialforcesafter
KadyrovsrashadmissionthathispeoplewereinvolvedintheSyrianconflict(Russia.tv,
February7,about1hourand18minutesin).Kadyrovsstatementcontradictedtheofficial
RussianpositionthatnoRussiangroundforcesweredeployedinSyria.Chechenauthorities
latercorrectedthestatement,sayingthatitwasnotaChechenspecialforcesunitthatwas
presentinSyria,butratheraRussianfederalmilitaryunit,whichwasnotinvolvedinthe
groundoperationsinthatcountry(Dp.ru,February8).
Lastyear,theChechenauthoritiestrumpetedthevictoriesofChechenspecialforcesinan
internationalcompetitionofspecialforcesheldinJordaninthespringof2015,describing
themasatriumph(RIANovosti,April24,2015).Groznydecidedtocreateanothermilitary
unitthatwouldbeabletooperateinextremeconditions.BeforetheendofMarchofthisyear,
theChechenauthoritiesplantodispatchtherepublicsspecialforcesunittotheNorthPole.
Kadyrovsparatrooperswillpracticeconductingcombatoperationsintheharshclimatethere
(Vesti.ru,March20).
OnhispersonalInstagramaccount,Kadyrovstatedthathisaide,formerRussiansecurity
forcesofficerDaniilMartynov,willoverseedispatchingtheChechenspecialforcestothe
NorthPole(Instagram.com,March20).Suchanoperationwillrequiresignificant
expenditurestoensurereliablecommunicationsandsecurityforthegroupintheharsh
environmentoftheNorthPole,whichmeansthatitisbeingsupportedbytheRussianstate.
SpecialistshaveaskedwhyChechenspecialforceswerecreatedwhentheRussianmilitary
alreadyhasAlphaandothereliteunits.Severalyearsago,theoppositionnewspaperNovaya
GazetaestimatedthatKadyrovsforceswerequitesubstantial,numberingfrom10,000to
30,000men(Onkavkaz.com,March21).ChechnyaistheonlyregioninRussiaallowedto
maintainitsownregionalarmedforces.ButwhydoesMoscownotallowotherregionsofthe
NorthCaucasustohavetheirownspecialforces?Thesecuritysituationinneighboring
Dagestan,forexample,hasbeenfarworsethaninChechnyasinceatleast20082010.
ThegameswithChechenforcesstrikinglyresembletheexperiencesoftheRussianEmpirein
thepast.Atthetime,theNorthCaucasianmountaineerswerepartoftheRussianEmperors
personalguards,asthemountaineersprotectedhislifefrompossiblecoupattempts.
Currently,whenMoscowspendssubstantialresourcesontrainingtheChechenswhoareloyal
toRussia,theanalogieswiththeRussianimperialpastarequitestrong.
ByallowingKadyrovtopursuethisprogram,PresidentVladimirPutiniscreatingtheonly
ethnic-basedunitofspecialforcesinRussia.ItwillbelogicaliftheRussianpresident
eventuallygrantstheChechenspecialforcesfederalstatusandmakesthemhispersonal
specialforcesunit,thoughthiswould,ineffect,contraveneRussianlaws.Atfirst,itseemed
theauthoritieswerepreparingtheChechenspecialforcesfordeploymentintheNorth
CaucasusbecausetheChechensknowtheareabetterthantheRussianforces,despiteallthe
preparationthelatterundergoattrainingcentersinNalchikandMakhachkala
(Thequestion.ru,January16).However,theChechenunitsplannedlandingattheNorthPole
demonstratesthatMoscowregardstheChechenforcesasatooltobeusednotonlyforthe
problemsintheCaucasusbutalsoforawiderspectrumofproblemsatthenationallevel.
Inthepasthalfyear,hardlyamonthhaspassedbywithouttacticalmilitaryexercisesbeing
heldinChechnya(Regnum,March22).Kremlinofficialsapparentlybelievethatthesituation
inChechnyaremainsunstableandrequiresRussianfederalforcesontheground,suchas
policeunitsfromotherregionsoftheRussianFederation.CentralRussiasTularegion,for
example,recentlydispatched80policeofficerstoChechnya(Mk.ru,March22).Other
Russianregions,fromKaliningradtoSakhalin,alsoregularlysendreinforcementsto
Chechnya.Thus,MoscowdoesnotregardthesituationintheNorthCaucasusasentirely
stable.ItremainsquiteplausiblethatthegovernmentispreparingtheChechenspecialforces
tofulfilltasksintheregioninthenearfutureifthesituationsomehowdeteriorates.
--MairbekVatchagaev
RussianOppositionMeetsAbroad,CallsforGreaterDemocratizationand
FederalismatHome
ThefirstevermeetingoftheForumofFreeRussiatookplaceonMarch910,inVilnius,
Lithuania.Itwasauniquepublicevent,featuringadirectdialoguebetweenRussianpolitical
emigrantsandoppositionalactivistsstillresidinginRussia.Suchaconferencewouldbe
impossibletoholdinpresent-dayRussia.Andindeed,manyofitsexileparticipantsareafraid
toreturntotheirhomecountryforfearofpoliticalpersecution(Grani.ru,March9).
Morethan200peopleparticipatedintheForum.Severalthematicsessionswereorganized
onvariousaspectsofthecurrentsituationinRussia,includinghumanrightsactivities,thefight
againstcorruption,problemsofRussianjournalismandsociety,theforeignpolicyofVladimir
PutinsRussia,andinternationalsecurity(Forumfreerussia.org,accessedMarch23).Oneof
thesessions,originallyunplanned,butheldattherequestoftheparticipantscomingfromthe
Russianregions,wascalledTheRegionalAspectofReformsinRussia.Itgatheredabout
50civilsocietyactivistsfromSt.PetersburgtoSiberia.Theseactivistsgenerallyhadno
relationtothecurrentgovernment,butinsteadrepresentednumerousindependentnetworks
orsocialmovementsinsideRussiathatareseekingtoincreaseregionalautonomywithinthe
RussianFederation.
Theformatofthissessionwasalsodifferentfromtherest.Therewerenospeakersonthe
stage.Instead,thesessionwasorganizedasaninteractiveroundtable,whereallthe
participantscouldspeakout.Ingeneral,theymostlyspokecautiouslyoutoffearthatupon
theirreturnhome,theycouldfaceprosecutiononcriminalchargesforappealstoviolatethe
territorialintegrityofRussia.ItissignificantthatthislawinRussiawasadoptedinDecember
2013andenteredintoforceinMay2014,shortlyaftertheRussianFederationforcibly
annexedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula(RossiyskayaGazeta,December,30,2013).
ShortlyafterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,onMarch31,1992,thenewRussian
governmentsignedtheFederalTreaty.ItestablishedthecontractualprincipleoftheRussian
Federationanddelegatedmanypowerstotheregions.Yet,thisnewpowerarrangement
codifiedaninherentinequalityamongRussiasfederalentities:theethnic-basedrepublicswere
grantedsovereignty,whiletheoblastswerenot.However,withtheadoptionoftheRussian
Constitutionin1993,thecontractualprincipleofthefederationwaslargelynullified,andthe
mentionofthesovereigntyoftherepublicsdisappeared.AfurtherlegalevolutionofRussia
wascharacterizedbytheincreasingcentralizationunderthepresidencyofVladimirPutin,
whichfounditsultimateexpressionintheso-calledverticalofpower,whichcanceleddirect
electionsofgovernorsandlocalleadersoftheRussianregions.Instead,underthePutinist
powerverticalsystem,theRussianpresidentwasgiventhepowertonominateregional
governors(toberubberstampedbythelocallegislatures),whointurnwouldnominatelocal
mayors.
DirectelectionsofregionalgovernorswerereinstatedonJune1,2012,followingPutins
returntotheKremlin.Buttheseelectoralcontestscannotbeconsideredtrulyfreeorfair.
Candidatesarenominatedbypoliticalpartiesandtheyhavetobeagreedonbythelocal
legislativeassemblies.AndbecauseeveryRussianregionisdominatedbytherulingUnited
Russiaparty,theresultsforgubernatorialelectionsacrossthecountryaregenerallyalwaysa
foregoneconclusion,thusprecludingtheelectionofcandidatesopposedtotheKremlin.Thus,
thecurrentsystembasicallymaintainstheverticalofpower,justinadifferentform.The
economicandtaxsystemsinRussiaarealsocentralized.Evenintheculturalsphere,aunitary
Russificationpolicyisbeingimplemented,eventhoughmorethan100ethnicgroupslivein
Russia(seeEDM,October27,2015Jamestownfoundation.blogspot.com, June26,2013,
September30,2015 Windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com,September7,2015).Themain
exceptiontothistrendinRussiahasbeenRamzanKadyrovsChechnya,whichwasallowed
wideautonomyinexchangeforitsloyalpro-Kremlinpolicies.
TheparticipantsoftheTheRegionalAspectofReformsinRussiasessioninVilniusearlier
thismonthstronglyopposedsuchcentralizationoftheRussianFederation.Oneofthesession
moderators,ViktorKorb,thedirectoroftheOmsk-basedAgencyforRegionalStudies,
spokeoftheneedtorestorecivilself-governmentinallRussianregions.This,hesaid,should
includefreeelectionsofauthoritiesatalllevelsregionalandmunicipal.Anothermoderator,
IlyaLazarenko,thechiefeditorofthewebmagazineRussianFabula,insistedontheneedto
transformallRussianregionsintoequalrepublics,thusturningRussiaintoasymmetric
federation(RusskayaFabula,March,17).ViktorNikolaev,ajournalistfromSt.Petersburg,
evensuggestedapossiblefuturenameforthecountrytheUnitedStatesofRussia.
ThepresenceofactivistsfromSt.PetersburgattheFreedomofRussiaForumisaninteresting
factor.InSt.Petersburgtoday,thereisanactive,thoughinformalregionalistmovementcalling
fortheunificationofSt.PetersburgcitywiththesurroundingLeningradregionintoaRepublic
ofIngria,whichwouldenjoygreaterself-government.Ingriaisahistoricalnamereferencing
thisareasnameofIngermanland,beforeitbecameapartofRussiaduringthe15th18th
centuries.Indeed,onceinsideTsarPeterIsRussianEmpire,thisareasnamewasinitiallythe
IngermanlandGovernorate.Today,supportersoftheIngrianregionalistmovementoftenhold
marchesandbrandishIngrianflags(Facebook.com/groups/ingria,accessedMarch23).
TheorganizersoftheForumofFreeRussiawere,infact,itsmainspeakersGarry
KasparovandAndreyIllarionovalongwithotherwell-knownRussianoppositionleaders.
However,thedetailsregardingthefinancialbackingfortheForumhasbeenspottymostof
theparticipantsarrivedattheirownexpense.Reportedly,theLithuanianforeignministryalso
providedsomesupport,intheformofawelcomereceptionandbyprovidingthevenuefor
theevent.Paradoxically,theForumsexpatRussianorganizerspreservedalargelyMoscow-
centricmindsetthatpoliticalchangemustbetopdown(Forumfreerussia.org,accessed
March23).
ContemporaryRussianregionalismislargelyanintellectualproject.Butifitisevergiventhe
opportunityforpoliticalself-realization(forexample,intheformofregionalpoliticalparties,
whicharenowbanned),itcouldradicallychangethepoliticalmapofRussia.Debateoverthe
revivalofRussianfederalismisbecomingincreasinglypopularamongtheRussianopposition.
OrganizersoftheMarchgatheringinVilniuspromisedtoholdthenextForuminSeptember.
Theprojectofanew,equitableFederalTreatyinRussiawilllikelybediscussed.
Ofcourse,anoppositionalForumheldabroadcallingforgreaterdemocratizationand
federalizationofRussiaisunlikelytodirectlyinfluencecurrentpolicyinMoscow.Butthe
topicsdiscussedintheLithuaniancapitalearlierthismonthhavehituponaseriousdouble
standardinRussia.TheKremlinoffersfederalizationforUkraineandSyria,while
maintainingstrongunitarismandcentralismathome.Andsuchasharpcontrastcould
encourageadomesticbacklashthatwouldunderminethePutinistsystem.
--VadimShtepa
ArrestofanOligarchinBelarus
OnMarch11,YuryChyzh,oneofBelarusswealthiestentrepreneurs,wasarrested.Chyzh
headsTriple,aconglomeratewith5,000employeesandassetsinvariousbusinesses,including
theoiltrade,construction,theimportofalcoholicbeverages,thehotelindustryandother
sectors.
BythestandardsofRussiaorUkraine,Chyzhisnooligarch.Atonepoint,aUkrainiansource
assessedhiswealthat$90million(Delo,August6,2010).When,in2011,thisauthorasked
PresidentAlyaksandrLukashenkaifChyzhdeservestobecalledanoligarch,theresponse
was,Whatareyoutalkingabout?Heisapauperheborrowsmoneyfrommeforhisforeign
trips(Svaboda.org,March11).Yettheveryreasonthisquestionwasaskedwasthat
Chyzhsconstructionfirmwasactiveinthepreparationsfortheupcoming(2014)icehockey
championshipheldinMinsk.Moreover,Chyzhregularlyplayedhockeyaswellasmowed
grassinthecompanyofthepresidenthimself.Andin2011,hetoppedtherankingof
Belarussmostsuccessfulbusinessmen(Ej.by,accessedMarch23).
InMarch2012,theEuropeanUnionincludedChyzhonitslistofBelarusiansundertravel
sanctionsonaccountofhisfinancingtheLukashenkaregimeinexchangeforpolitical
supportforhisbusiness.However,in2015,followingtherulingoftheEuropeanCourtof
Justice,sanctionsonChyzhwereremoved(Tut.by,October6,2015)afullfourmonths
beforesanctionswereliftedonmost(allbutfour)BelarusiansbarredfromtheEU,including
PresidentLukashenka.
JustfourdaysafterChyzhsarrest,thesamefatebefellYevgenyBaskin,theCEOof
Servolux,acorporategroupthatincludespoultryfarms,meatandmilkprocessingplants,
compoundanimalfeedplants,andretailoutlets(Naviny.by,March15).
Naturally,thereisnoshortageoftheoriestryingtoexplainthesearrests.Perhapsthemost
overarchingargumentwasadvancedbyAlexanderNosovich,aKaliningrad-basedresearcher
andjournalistwithkeeninterestinBelarus.ComparingUkrainewithBelarus,Nosovich
observedthatwhereasinUkraine,theoligarchsbegetthepresident,inBelarus,itisthe
presidentwhobegetstheoligarchs(Nosovich,March13).
Asformorespecificexplanationsforthesedevelopments,fourstandout.Accordingto
AlexanderFeduta,Lukashenkaspresssecretaryin19941995andsincethenanactive
memberoftheopposition,theopeningofWesterncreditlinestoBelarusianindustrythat
followedtheliftingofEuropeansanctionshasintensifiedthestrugglebetweenthepotential
usersofthosecreditlines.Andsomeyoungeroligarchssimplysucceededinsidelining
Chyzh.Earlier,Chyzhhimselfsucceededinpurginghisownbusinesspartner,Vladimir
Yaprintsev,whowasarrestedinAugust2015(Naviny.by,March12).
Thesecondversion,offeredbyYuryDrakakhrustof Tut.byandtheBelarusianserviceof
RadioLiberty,positsthatChyzhsarrestresultedfromjockeyingforpowerwithintheruling
elite.Morespecifically,byarrestingsomeleadingfigureswhoembodyeconomicliberalism,
BelarusianKGBchairValeryVakulchikwasabletooffsettheamplifiedinfluenceofForeign
MinisterUladzimirMakei.Makeisauthorityinthegovernmentwasnaturallyboostedbythe
liftingoftheEUsanctionswhichMakeihadworkedforindefatigablysince2011.
Drakakhrustunderscoresthathistheorydoesnotemanatefromsomeinsiderknowledge
rather,itisbasedonanunderstandingofhowacertaintypeofapoliticalsystemworks,and
thereishardlyanythingendemictoBelarusinthatregard.Moreover,Drakakhrustnotesthat
hisexplanationisnotdefinedbythespecificpersonalitiesofMakeiandValulchikinstead,it
takesintoaccounttherolestheyplaywithinthepoliticalapparatus,i.e.,pursuingopenness
andbetterrelationswiththeoutsideworldversusworkingtoensureregimesecurityand
resistingrockingtheboat(Tut.by,March16).
PiotraPiatrouski,aPh.D.studentattheInstituteofPhilosophyandanassociateatthe
informalandgovernment-friendlythinktankCitadel,presentsthethirdpossiblerationalization.
Specifically,PiatrouskiwritesthatthearrestsofaseriesofBelarusianwould-beoligarchsisin
linewiththeensuingconsequencesofthelateChineseleaderChairmanMaoZedongsshort-
livedpolicyoflettingahundredflowersbloomandahundredschoolsofthoughtcontend.It
iswell-knownthatafterabriefperiodofliberalization(inthemid-1950s),Maolaunched
reprisals.Likewise,Piatrouskibelieves,theliftingofsanctionsinassociationwithadeep
economiccrisisinBelarusunleashedinitiativesforpersonalenrichmentthussinglingoutthe
least-reliablemembersoftheentrepreneurialclass.Andtheyhadtobecleansedbeforesome
realreformscouldcommence(Facebook.com/piotra.piatrouski,March15).
Finally,theofficialversion,voicedbyKGBchairmanVakulchikhimself,isthatChyzhcreated
afakeMoscow-basedfirmforuseinmoneylaunderingandtaxevasiononagrandscale.A
similaraccusationwasleveledagainstBaskin.WhereasChyzhwasreportedlyapprehended
ashedrovetowardthewesternborderofBelarusataspeedof200kilometers(124miles)
perhour,BaskinwasarrestedattheMinskInternationalAirport(Belta,March15).
VakulchikactuallyconfirmedthatthepreviousarrestofYaprintsevhadbeentriggeredafter
ChyzhandhisRussianpartnersinformedtheKGBaboutYaprintsevsillegalactions(Tut.by,
March15).Itishardlysurprisingthat,subsequently,thesamefatebefellChyzhhimself.
Thearrestsofacoupleofleadingentrepreneursandtheirassociatesshouldbeseenagainst
thebackgroundoftheintensifiedfightagainstcorruptioninBelarus.In2015,485people
weresentencedoncorruptioncharges,63percentmorethanin2014.Accordingto
TransparencyInternational,in2015,BelaruswasonlyslightlybetteronthiscountthanRussia
andUkraine:107thversus119th a n d 1 3 0th,respectively(Transparency.org,2015).
Anecdotalevidenceorwhatisusuallythoughtofasanecdotalsuggestsotherwise.The
opinionthatBelarusisvastlylesscorruptthanRussialetaloneUkraineispersistentallacross
EuropesEastandsharedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeople.Recently,areputable
UkrainiansourceevenclaimedthatcorruptioninBelarusisalmostnon-existent(Strana.ua,
March17).Russiansusuallyexpressasimilaropinion.
ButiftheBelarusiangovernmentsintoleranceforcorruptionisindeedreal,thearrestsofthe
oligarchsrepresentmorethanjustakeyholeviewintoarelativelyclosedregime.Infact,
theymaybeanindicationthatthetypesofstructuralreformsdemandedbytheInternational
MonetaryFundasaconditionforreopeningitscreditlineactuallyhaveachanceof
succeedinginBelarusmoresothanineitheroftheothertwoneighboringEasternSlavic
countries.
--GrigoryIoffe
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InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthe
causesandconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsintheNorth
Caucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregionsdevelopment.
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Senttime: 03/25/201608:56:25AM
FW:NatalyaZUBAREVICH[professoratMoscowStateU],6-pageop-ed,"RussianeconomiccrisisrisksSTAGNATION,DEGRADATION,"
Subject:
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,March25,20168:56AM
Subject:NatalyaZUBAREVICH[professoratMoscowStateU],6-pageop-ed,"RussianeconomiccrisisrisksSTAGNATION,
DEGRADATION,"themoscowtimes.com,3/25
TheRussianeconomyislockedinanespeciallybadcrisis.Itdifferssignificantlyfromthecrisesof
1998and20082009Ifanything,thecurrentcrisismorecloselyresemblesthatoftheearly1990s,
whenRussiawastransitioningfromaplannedtoamarketeconomy.
And:AndreOSBORN,6pagearticleFromRussiawithlove:whytheKremlinBACKSTRUMP,
http://www.reuters.com/article/ususaelectiontrumprussia1dUSKCNOWQIFA
DonaldTrumpisabraveproPutinpoliticalmaverickwhowouldendUSforeignwarsandperhapslift
sanctionsonMoscow.HillaryClinton,however,isawarmongerbeholdentothemilitaryindustrial
complex.RussianstateTV,whichhewscloselytotheKremlinsworldview,leaveslittledoubtwho
MoscowsupportsinNovembersUSpresidentialelection:TheDonald.SomeexpertssayTrump
appealstoMoscowbecausePutinbelievesaTrumppresidencywouldbeISOLATIONISTandleave
Russiawithafreehand.TheKremlincantbelieveitsluck,saidKonstantinEggert,anindependent
MoscowbasedanalystwhobelievestheObamaadministrationhasnotbeenforcefulincountering
Russia.PresidentObamaandJohnKerrywereadreamteamforthem,butnowtheyhaveaneven
betteroption;someonewhothinksthatAmericashouldhavenothingtodowiththerestofthe
worldTrumphasreceivedadvicefromLt.GeneralMichaelFlynn,aformerUSmilitaryintelligence
chiefwhoadvocatesbettertieswithRussiaThemutualappreciationofTrumpandPutinhasinvited
comparisonstotheRussianleadersfriendshipwithanotherbillionaireturnedpolitician,ItalysSilvio
Berlusconi,whooutragedUkrainiansandirkedEUleaderslastyearbyvisitingRussianannexed
CrimeawithPutinWedontwantHillary,saidoneRussianofficial,whospokeanonymously
ShesnofriendofRussias.
And:UkraineintelnamesRussianGENERAL[MajorGeneralStepanYaroshchuk]headingmissile
forcesinDonbas,unian.info,3/25
And:IntheKremlin[chiefof0staffSergeiIVANOV]theyhavetermedanexchangeofSavchenko
theoreticallypossible,http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/03/25/1501224.html
And:AcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstOlgaLI,adeputyoftheKurskOblastDuma,who
sharplycriticizedPutininarecentinterview:
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/president/m.2499919.html
And:ARussianspecialistinbridgeconstructionpredictsthereisaseriousdangerthattheKERCH
BRIDGEnowbeingconstructedunderPutinsorderswillCOLLAPSE:mk.ru,3/24

Senttime: 03/24/201611:54:59AM
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INTHISISSUE
*RussiawantstomendfenceswithWestonitsownterms
*whileMoscowintensifieseffortstoregisteranddetailnumberofextremists
*KazakhstantriestoboostcoastaldefenseswhilemaintainingclosetiestoRussia

TheBrusselsTerroristAttacks:AnOpportunitytoPromotePutinsAgenda

FollowingtheMarch22terroristattacksinBrussels,whichkilledover30peopleandinjured
hundreds,RussianofficialsrespondedbycallingforunityinopposingtheIslamicState(IS).
Theyproposedburyingthehatchetonallotherissuestoconcentrateonfightingterrorism.The
chairoftheDumaforeignrelationscommittee,AlexeiPushkov,spokeaboutNATO[the
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization]fightinganonexistentRussianthreat,whilebombsare
explodingunderitsnoseinBrussels.NATOheadquartersarenottoofarfromtheBrussels
internationalairport,wheretwobombswentofflastTuesday,inthecheck-inarea.Duma
deputiescalledforbettercooperationbetweenRussiaandtheWestonfightingterrorism:We
faceacommonenemybutaredisunited(Kommersant,March22).AccordingtoLieutenant
Colonel(ret.)AlexiFilatov,theWestmuststudyRussianknow-howofover20yearsof
fightingjihadistsandChechenseparatistsintheNorthCaucasus:Theinternationalcommunity
andtheUnitedStateshelpedustowintheSecondChechenwar[inthe2000s]andensure
orderintheNorthCaucasus.Nowtheyareintrouble,andwearereadytoshareourvast
practicalexperience.Onlytogetherwemayprevail(Aif.ru,March23).Filatovisasecurity
expertandaformerspecialforcesmemberofAlpha,theeliteantiterroristunitoftheFederal
SecurityService(FSB).

Opposingvoicesalsoenteredthediscussion.Theflamboyantextremenationalistpolitician
VladimirZhirinovsky,speakingintheparliament,opposedthemovebytheDumaspeaker
SergeiNaryshkintoexpresscondolencestotheBrusselsvictimsbyamomentofsilence.In
preparationfortheupcomingDumaelectionsnextfall,Zhirinovskyisusingextremeanti-
WesternnationalisticrhetorictoensurehisLiberal-DemocraticParty(LDPR)receivesenough
votestostayinthelegislature.AccordingtoZhirinovsky,Westernershaveonlythemselvesto
blameiftheyareattackedbyterrorists.Headded,Idonotknowofanyinstancewhena
foreignparliamentheldamomentofsilencetocommemorateRussiandeadwemustact
accordingly.Naryshkin,acloseassociateofPresidentVladimirPutin,rebukedZhirinovsky:
Forus,thesecurityofEuropeisindivisible(Mk.ru,March23)
TheformationofagrandantiterroristcoalitionhasbeenPutinspetideaforsometime(see
EDM,September17,2015 October29,2015).SpeakingattheUnitedNations,inNew
York,lastSeptember,justacoupleofdaysbeforeRussianjetsbeganarelentlessbombing
campaignoverSyriatoreinforcetheregimeofBasharal-Assad,Putincalledfortheformation
ofabroadantiterroristcoalitionandcompareditwiththecoalitionagainstAdolfHitler,
formedduringWorldWarII.Despitethecallforunity,PutinsspeechattheUNwasmostly
anattackontheWest,whichhedenouncedforcausingworld-widechaosbypromoting
democraticchangeinAsianandAfricannations.Buttheneedtocounteracommonfoemust
prevailandPutinbeganhisUNaddressbyrecallingthe1945YaltasummitoftheBigThree
leadersoftheanti-HitlercoalitionJosefStalin,TheodorRooseveltandWinstonChurchill.
PutinpraisedtheYaltasystem,whichsavedtheworldfromhavocforthelast70years
(Kremlin.ru,September28).
InYalta,in1945,theBigThreecarvedupEuropeintodistinctspheresofdominance,
leavingCentralEuropeannations,whicharenowmembersoftheEuropeanUnionand
NATO,undertheSovietthumbuntiltheendoftheColdWarandthecollapseof
Communism,in1991.ForthosenationsandformanyintheWest,theYaltasystemof
worldorderisaslurword,butnotatallintheKremlintoday.Putinsproposednewanti-
HitlercoalitioncoulditselfleadtoanewYalta:toanewworldorderbasedonthesame
principlesofgreatpowersdecidingtheplightoflessernationswithouttheirconsentor
consultation.TheKremlincouldevenprovidethesameYaltapremisesinfreshlyannexed
Crimeaforanewget-together.TheIslamicStatesdramaticterroristattacksinEuropeand
RussiasapparentmilitarysuccessinSyria(see EDM,March17)seemtoprovideagood
backgroundthatmayinducetheWesttoagree.
ItishighlyimportantfortheKremlintoprove,inpracticalterms,thattheprincipleofconcert
ofgreatpowersworksandmayhelpsolvecomplicatedinternationalissues.Abilateral
concertoftheUSandRussiaresemblingtheColdWarsuperpowersdealingsisseenas
especiallygood:itmakesMoscowanequaltoWashingtonandcreatestensionsbetweenthe
USanditsvariousinternationalallies.ThevisitthisweektoMoscowofUSSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrytoholdtalkswithhisRussiancounterpartSergeiLavrov,alongwithalate
nightmeetingwithPutin,isseenassignificant.TheofficialKremlin-controlledmediaexpress
hopeofanemergingunderstandingbetweenMoscowandWashington,thoughanyreal
breakthroughmayhappenonlyafteranewadministrationisintheWhiteHousenextyear
(RIANovosti,March24).
MoscowisreadytoadaptitspoliciesinSyriaandUkrainetoaccommodatetheUS,butno
compromisesonprincipleareforthcoming.RussiaexpectstheUStoreininTurkeyandthe
Syrianoppositiontostayputasal-AssadandotherRussianalliesinSyriagrowstrongerand
expandtheirterritorialcontrol.RussianspecialinterestsandmilitarybasesinSyriamustbe
guaranteed.MoscowexpectsWashingtontobeginclosermilitary-to-militarycooperationin
Syria,allowingtheRussianArmedForcesstilltheretouseforcetocompeltheSyrian
oppositiontobowtoal-Assad.RussiaalsoexpectstheUStoputmorepressureonthe
governmentinKyivtolegalizetheMoscow-backedDonbasseparatists(Vesti.ru,March24).
MariaZakharova,theofficialspokespersonfortheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairs,told
journalistsinaTVinterviewthisweekthatshesupportsDonaldTrumpsassessmentof
NATOasanorganizationincrisis(Vesti.ru,March22).Inthefuture,whenamoreisolationist
administrationmaytakeoverinWashington(preferablyTrumps),theKremlinisreadytohelp
theUSdisentangleitselffromthetroublesomeMiddleEastandcutbackonitsinternational
commitmentstoEuropeandNATOaswellasotherpartsoftheworld.Meanwhile,Russia
willseektoexpanditspresenceinallthoseregions.RussiansoldiersfightinginSyriaandin
DonbasarebuildingthefoundationofanewworldorderandfromMoscowspointofview
succeeding.
--PavelFelgenhauer
February25).
doingso.
--MairbekVatchagaev
KazakhstanFacesMilitarizationoftheCaspian
InlateFebruary,RussianTVchannel Zvezda,whichiswhollyownedbytheMinistryof
Defense,broadcastavideoaboutanewtypeofassaultboatthatwillbecommissionednext
yearaspartofRussiasstrategytoboostitscoastaldefense.TheMurena-classfastassault
air-cushioncraftwillrunonacoupleofhigh-temperaturegasturbineengines,10,000
horsepowereach,andwillbecapableoftransportingtroopsandequipmentduringrapid
responseoperationsofanunspecifiednature.Thenewboatwillnotablybedeployedtothe
CaspianSea(Zvezda,February26RIANovosti,February28).
FollowingtheMarch2014annexationofCrimea,tensionsarehighbetweenRussiaand
UkraineintheBlackSea,whereMoscowhassinceconsiderablyreinforceditsmilitary
presence.AnotherareaofbrewinggeopoliticaltensionsistheeasternMediterranean,largely
becauseoftheVladimirPutingovernmentsdirectmilitarysupporttotheembattledregimeof
SyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.TheRussianArmedForcesoperatealogisticsfacilityat
theSyrianportofTartus,inadditiontoanairbaseinLatakia.Bothfacilitiescontinuetoservice
Russiancombattroops,despitePutinsrecentannouncementofapartialwithdrawalfrom
Syria(Tvc.ru,March17,2016Korrespondent.net,October2,2015UNIAN,September
14,2014).
Twoweeksafter ZvezdashowedofftheRussiannavysprojectedassaultcapabilities,
neighboringKazakhstansmediareportedthatacompanycalledZikstowasreadytobuilda
prototypenavalminefortheKazakhstaninavy.BasedinPetropavlovsk,northern
Kazakhstan,Zikstowasestablishedinthe1940sonthebasisofaRussiandefense
manufacturer,whosepersonnelhadbeenevacuatedfromMoscowduringWorldWarII.The
companycurrentlybelongstoKazakhstanEngineering,themainstate-ownedentity
responsibleforthedevelopmentofdomesticmilitarytechnologies.Thereareongoing
discussionsaboutthestrengtheningofKazakhstanscoastlineagainstapotentialattackbya
foreignenemy.Wewouldbehappytoprovideourassistance,ZikstoCEOValerySpitsyn
wasquotedastellingthemedia(Express-k.kz,Inform.kz,March9).
ThesereportshavepromptedrumorsaboutwhetheranupcomingadditiontotheRussian
CaspianFlotillascombatforcecouldinanywayjeopardizethesecurityoreventhe
sovereigntyofotherlittoralstates,suchasKazakhstan.Whatmanyobservershave
overlookedsofaristhatZikstoalsohasanexistingcontractwithRussia,whichitrecently
signedwithintheframeworkoftheMoscow-ledCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization
(CSTO).Thecontractprovidesforthedeliveryofthesameorcloselyrelatednavalmine
technologytoRussiabyaKazakhstan-basedmanufacturer.KazakhstanEngineeringandthe
Russiandefenseministryclinchedthedeallastyearinwhatappearstobeanormalworking
procedureasapplicabletobilateralmilitarycooperation(Ke.kz,Mod.gov.kz,March9).
Earlier,inJanuary2016,itwasreportedthatashipyardnearSt.Petersburgwasputtingthe
finishingtouchesonabrand-newminesweeperprovisionallycalledAlatau,afteramountain
rangeinsouthernKazakhstansAlmatyRegion,fortheKazakhstaniCaspianfleet.Theship
wasfirstlaunchedinthewaterinOctober2015andithassincebeensubjectedtoseveral
stagesoftestingaimedatcalibratingitforreal-lifeconditions.Asinthecaseofthenavalmine
projectpioneeredbyZiksto,theconstructionof Alatauisbasedonbilateralmilitary
cooperationandtechnologicaltransfersundertheCSTOsaegis.Theinitialcontractwas
signedbackin2013andimpliestheconstructionofnotone,butseveralships,allofwhichwill
beusedontheCaspian,theonlyseaKazakhstanhasaccessto(Inform.kz,Lenta.ru,January
6).
Kazakhstanisactivelypursuingthemodernizationofitsnavalforcesandhasaspecial
government-fundedprogramtothateffectuntil2020.Thenavycurrentlycomprisesthree
missileboatsnamed Kazakhstan,Oral(theKazakhnameoftheUralRiver,whichpasses
closetothewesternborderwithRussia),andSaryarka(thenameofthesteppeinthecenter
ofthecountry).ThewesternKazakhstanbasedZenitshipyardisfurtherworkingonthe
designofaseriesofsmallerboats.Inthepast,thegovernmentmadeacquisitionsfromTurkey,
SouthKoreaandtheUnitedStates,althoughRussiaremainsitsclosestpartneronnaval
issues.Overall,KazakhstanlagssignificantlybehindotherCaspianstatesintermsofseaborne
offensiveanddefensivecapacity.WithRussiaatthetopofthefive-countrylist,Iran,
AzerbaijanandTurkmenistanallhaveinvestedsubstantialamountsofmoneyintothe
modernizationoftheirrespectivenavies(Korabli.eu,March23seeEDM,April24,2013).
WhileRussian-Kazakhstanimilitarycooperationstillreflectsthetrustthatthetwocountries
haveineachothersintentions,Russiasgrowingbellicosityclearlystandsasasourceof
worriesforKazakhstan.LastOctoberandNovember,Russianshipsfiredasalvoofship-
launchedcruisemissilesfromtheCaspianagainsttargetsinSyria.Themissilestraveled
approximately1,500kilometersandhitseveraldozenfacilitiesbelongingtotheIslamicState
extremistgroup.MostexpertsagreethatRussiacouldhavedonethesameatamuchlower
costbydeployingitsSyria-basedplanestodropbombsontheIslamicState,butthepurpose
ofthiscampaignwasmostlikelytoshowtheworldwhatRussiawascapableof(RIA
Novosti,November30,2015Lenta.ru,October8,2015).ForKazakhstan,thatmeansnot
onlythatitincreasinglyhastodealwithanunpredictable,saber-rattlingallybutalsothatother
Caspiancountriesarethemselveslikelyseektobeefuptheirdefensesinabidtocontain
Russia.
--GeorgeVoloshin
Forward ReadLater
States.
disputes.
111116thSt.,NW
Suite#320
Washington,DC20036
202-483-8888(phone)
202-483-8337(fax)
Senttime: 03/24/201611:54:59AM
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INTHISISSUE
*RussiawantstomendfenceswithWestonitsownterms
*whileMoscowintensifieseffortstoregisteranddetailnumberofextremists
*KazakhstantriestoboostcoastaldefenseswhilemaintainingclosetiestoRussia

TheBrusselsTerroristAttacks:AnOpportunitytoPromotePutinsAgenda

FollowingtheMarch22terroristattacksinBrussels,whichkilledover30peopleandinjured
hundreds,RussianofficialsrespondedbycallingforunityinopposingtheIslamicState(IS).
Theyproposedburyingthehatchetonallotherissuestoconcentrateonfightingterrorism.The
chairoftheDumaforeignrelationscommittee,AlexeiPushkov,spokeaboutNATO[the
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization]fightinganonexistentRussianthreat,whilebombsare
explodingunderitsnoseinBrussels.NATOheadquartersarenottoofarfromtheBrussels
internationalairport,wheretwobombswentofflastTuesday,inthecheck-inarea.Duma
deputiescalledforbettercooperationbetweenRussiaandtheWestonfightingterrorism:We
faceacommonenemybutaredisunited(Kommersant,March22).AccordingtoLieutenant
Colonel(ret.)AlexiFilatov,theWestmuststudyRussianknow-howofover20yearsof
fightingjihadistsandChechenseparatistsintheNorthCaucasus:Theinternationalcommunity
andtheUnitedStateshelpedustowintheSecondChechenwar[inthe2000s]andensure
orderintheNorthCaucasus.Nowtheyareintrouble,andwearereadytoshareourvast
practicalexperience.Onlytogetherwemayprevail(Aif.ru,March23).Filatovisasecurity
expertandaformerspecialforcesmemberofAlpha,theeliteantiterroristunitoftheFederal
SecurityService(FSB).

Opposingvoicesalsoenteredthediscussion.Theflamboyantextremenationalistpolitician
VladimirZhirinovsky,speakingintheparliament,opposedthemovebytheDumaspeaker
SergeiNaryshkintoexpresscondolencestotheBrusselsvictimsbyamomentofsilence.In
preparationfortheupcomingDumaelectionsnextfall,Zhirinovskyisusingextremeanti-
WesternnationalisticrhetorictoensurehisLiberal-DemocraticParty(LDPR)receivesenough
votestostayinthelegislature.AccordingtoZhirinovsky,Westernershaveonlythemselvesto
blameiftheyareattackedbyterrorists.Headded,Idonotknowofanyinstancewhena
foreignparliamentheldamomentofsilencetocommemorateRussiandeadwemustact
accordingly.Naryshkin,acloseassociateofPresidentVladimirPutin,rebukedZhirinovsky:
Forus,thesecurityofEuropeisindivisible(Mk.ru,March23)
TheformationofagrandantiterroristcoalitionhasbeenPutinspetideaforsometime(see
EDM,September17,2015 October29,2015).SpeakingattheUnitedNations,inNew
York,lastSeptember,justacoupleofdaysbeforeRussianjetsbeganarelentlessbombing
campaignoverSyriatoreinforcetheregimeofBasharal-Assad,Putincalledfortheformation
ofabroadantiterroristcoalitionandcompareditwiththecoalitionagainstAdolfHitler,
formedduringWorldWarII.Despitethecallforunity,PutinsspeechattheUNwasmostly
anattackontheWest,whichhedenouncedforcausingworld-widechaosbypromoting
democraticchangeinAsianandAfricannations.Buttheneedtocounteracommonfoemust
prevailandPutinbeganhisUNaddressbyrecallingthe1945YaltasummitoftheBigThree
leadersoftheanti-HitlercoalitionJosefStalin,TheodorRooseveltandWinstonChurchill.
PutinpraisedtheYaltasystem,whichsavedtheworldfromhavocforthelast70years
(Kremlin.ru,September28).
InYalta,in1945,theBigThreecarvedupEuropeintodistinctspheresofdominance,
leavingCentralEuropeannations,whicharenowmembersoftheEuropeanUnionand
NATO,undertheSovietthumbuntiltheendoftheColdWarandthecollapseof
Communism,in1991.ForthosenationsandformanyintheWest,theYaltasystemof
worldorderisaslurword,butnotatallintheKremlintoday.Putinsproposednewanti-
HitlercoalitioncoulditselfleadtoanewYalta:toanewworldorderbasedonthesame
principlesofgreatpowersdecidingtheplightoflessernationswithouttheirconsentor
consultation.TheKremlincouldevenprovidethesameYaltapremisesinfreshlyannexed
Crimeaforanewget-together.TheIslamicStatesdramaticterroristattacksinEuropeand
RussiasapparentmilitarysuccessinSyria(see EDM,March17)seemtoprovideagood
backgroundthatmayinducetheWesttoagree.
ItishighlyimportantfortheKremlintoprove,inpracticalterms,thattheprincipleofconcert
ofgreatpowersworksandmayhelpsolvecomplicatedinternationalissues.Abilateral
concertoftheUSandRussiaresemblingtheColdWarsuperpowersdealingsisseenas
especiallygood:itmakesMoscowanequaltoWashingtonandcreatestensionsbetweenthe
USanditsvariousinternationalallies.ThevisitthisweektoMoscowofUSSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrytoholdtalkswithhisRussiancounterpartSergeiLavrov,alongwithalate
nightmeetingwithPutin,isseenassignificant.TheofficialKremlin-controlledmediaexpress
hopeofanemergingunderstandingbetweenMoscowandWashington,thoughanyreal
breakthroughmayhappenonlyafteranewadministrationisintheWhiteHousenextyear
(RIANovosti,March24).
MoscowisreadytoadaptitspoliciesinSyriaandUkrainetoaccommodatetheUS,butno
compromisesonprincipleareforthcoming.RussiaexpectstheUStoreininTurkeyandthe
Syrianoppositiontostayputasal-AssadandotherRussianalliesinSyriagrowstrongerand
expandtheirterritorialcontrol.RussianspecialinterestsandmilitarybasesinSyriamustbe
guaranteed.MoscowexpectsWashingtontobeginclosermilitary-to-militarycooperationin
Syria,allowingtheRussianArmedForcesstilltheretouseforcetocompeltheSyrian
oppositiontobowtoal-Assad.RussiaalsoexpectstheUStoputmorepressureonthe
governmentinKyivtolegalizetheMoscow-backedDonbasseparatists(Vesti.ru,March24).
MariaZakharova,theofficialspokespersonfortheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairs,told
journalistsinaTVinterviewthisweekthatshesupportsDonaldTrumpsassessmentof
NATOasanorganizationincrisis(Vesti.ru,March22).Inthefuture,whenamoreisolationist
administrationmaytakeoverinWashington(preferablyTrumps),theKremlinisreadytohelp
theUSdisentangleitselffromthetroublesomeMiddleEastandcutbackonitsinternational
commitmentstoEuropeandNATOaswellasotherpartsoftheworld.Meanwhile,Russia
willseektoexpanditspresenceinallthoseregions.RussiansoldiersfightinginSyriaandin
DonbasarebuildingthefoundationofanewworldorderandfromMoscowspointofview
succeeding.
--PavelFelgenhauer
February25).
doingso.
--MairbekVatchagaev
KazakhstanFacesMilitarizationoftheCaspian
InlateFebruary,RussianTVchannel Zvezda,whichiswhollyownedbytheMinistryof
Defense,broadcastavideoaboutanewtypeofassaultboatthatwillbecommissionednext
yearaspartofRussiasstrategytoboostitscoastaldefense.TheMurena-classfastassault
air-cushioncraftwillrunonacoupleofhigh-temperaturegasturbineengines,10,000
horsepowereach,andwillbecapableoftransportingtroopsandequipmentduringrapid
responseoperationsofanunspecifiednature.Thenewboatwillnotablybedeployedtothe
CaspianSea(Zvezda,February26RIANovosti,February28).
FollowingtheMarch2014annexationofCrimea,tensionsarehighbetweenRussiaand
UkraineintheBlackSea,whereMoscowhassinceconsiderablyreinforceditsmilitary
presence.AnotherareaofbrewinggeopoliticaltensionsistheeasternMediterranean,largely
becauseoftheVladimirPutingovernmentsdirectmilitarysupporttotheembattledregimeof
SyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.TheRussianArmedForcesoperatealogisticsfacilityat
theSyrianportofTartus,inadditiontoanairbaseinLatakia.Bothfacilitiescontinuetoservice
Russiancombattroops,despitePutinsrecentannouncementofapartialwithdrawalfrom
Syria(Tvc.ru,March17,2016Korrespondent.net,October2,2015UNIAN,September
14,2014).
Twoweeksafter ZvezdashowedofftheRussiannavysprojectedassaultcapabilities,
neighboringKazakhstansmediareportedthatacompanycalledZikstowasreadytobuilda
prototypenavalminefortheKazakhstaninavy.BasedinPetropavlovsk,northern
Kazakhstan,Zikstowasestablishedinthe1940sonthebasisofaRussiandefense
manufacturer,whosepersonnelhadbeenevacuatedfromMoscowduringWorldWarII.The
companycurrentlybelongstoKazakhstanEngineering,themainstate-ownedentity
responsibleforthedevelopmentofdomesticmilitarytechnologies.Thereareongoing
discussionsaboutthestrengtheningofKazakhstanscoastlineagainstapotentialattackbya
foreignenemy.Wewouldbehappytoprovideourassistance,ZikstoCEOValerySpitsyn
wasquotedastellingthemedia(Express-k.kz,Inform.kz,March9).
ThesereportshavepromptedrumorsaboutwhetheranupcomingadditiontotheRussian
CaspianFlotillascombatforcecouldinanywayjeopardizethesecurityoreventhe
sovereigntyofotherlittoralstates,suchasKazakhstan.Whatmanyobservershave
overlookedsofaristhatZikstoalsohasanexistingcontractwithRussia,whichitrecently
signedwithintheframeworkoftheMoscow-ledCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization
(CSTO).Thecontractprovidesforthedeliveryofthesameorcloselyrelatednavalmine
technologytoRussiabyaKazakhstan-basedmanufacturer.KazakhstanEngineeringandthe
Russiandefenseministryclinchedthedeallastyearinwhatappearstobeanormalworking
procedureasapplicabletobilateralmilitarycooperation(Ke.kz,Mod.gov.kz,March9).
Earlier,inJanuary2016,itwasreportedthatashipyardnearSt.Petersburgwasputtingthe
finishingtouchesonabrand-newminesweeperprovisionallycalledAlatau,afteramountain
rangeinsouthernKazakhstansAlmatyRegion,fortheKazakhstaniCaspianfleet.Theship
wasfirstlaunchedinthewaterinOctober2015andithassincebeensubjectedtoseveral
stagesoftestingaimedatcalibratingitforreal-lifeconditions.Asinthecaseofthenavalmine
projectpioneeredbyZiksto,theconstructionof Alatauisbasedonbilateralmilitary
cooperationandtechnologicaltransfersundertheCSTOsaegis.Theinitialcontractwas
signedbackin2013andimpliestheconstructionofnotone,butseveralships,allofwhichwill
beusedontheCaspian,theonlyseaKazakhstanhasaccessto(Inform.kz,Lenta.ru,January
6).
Kazakhstanisactivelypursuingthemodernizationofitsnavalforcesandhasaspecial
government-fundedprogramtothateffectuntil2020.Thenavycurrentlycomprisesthree
missileboatsnamed Kazakhstan,Oral(theKazakhnameoftheUralRiver,whichpasses
closetothewesternborderwithRussia),andSaryarka(thenameofthesteppeinthecenter
ofthecountry).ThewesternKazakhstanbasedZenitshipyardisfurtherworkingonthe
designofaseriesofsmallerboats.Inthepast,thegovernmentmadeacquisitionsfromTurkey,
SouthKoreaandtheUnitedStates,althoughRussiaremainsitsclosestpartneronnaval
issues.Overall,KazakhstanlagssignificantlybehindotherCaspianstatesintermsofseaborne
offensiveanddefensivecapacity.WithRussiaatthetopofthefive-countrylist,Iran,
AzerbaijanandTurkmenistanallhaveinvestedsubstantialamountsofmoneyintothe
modernizationoftheirrespectivenavies(Korabli.eu,March23seeEDM,April24,2013).
WhileRussian-Kazakhstanimilitarycooperationstillreflectsthetrustthatthetwocountries
haveineachothersintentions,Russiasgrowingbellicosityclearlystandsasasourceof
worriesforKazakhstan.LastOctoberandNovember,Russianshipsfiredasalvoofship-
launchedcruisemissilesfromtheCaspianagainsttargetsinSyria.Themissilestraveled
approximately1,500kilometersandhitseveraldozenfacilitiesbelongingtotheIslamicState
extremistgroup.MostexpertsagreethatRussiacouldhavedonethesameatamuchlower
costbydeployingitsSyria-basedplanestodropbombsontheIslamicState,butthepurpose
ofthiscampaignwasmostlikelytoshowtheworldwhatRussiawascapableof(RIA
Novosti,November30,2015Lenta.ru,October8,2015).ForKazakhstan,thatmeansnot
onlythatitincreasinglyhastodealwithanunpredictable,saber-rattlingallybutalsothatother
Caspiancountriesarethemselveslikelyseektobeefuptheirdefensesinabidtocontain
Russia.
--GeorgeVoloshin
Forward ReadLater
States.
disputes.
111116thSt.,NW
Suite#320
Washington,DC20036
202-483-8888(phone)
202-483-8337(fax)
Senttime: 03/24/201601:15:08PM
FW:[AVERYRICHAFTERNOON/ESTRUN]JanuszB'snewarticleonNATO....[JDDD3-24I&II]Fwd:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO's
Subject:
sentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"+10MoreStoriesFwd:AnneApplebaumonUkraine.....BBC:RUTrollFacto...
Subject:Fwd:[AVERYRICHAFTERNOON/ESTRUN]JanuszB'snewarticleonNATO....[JDDD3-24I&II]Fwd:"Thewaitinggame:
SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"+10MoreStoriesFwd:AnneApplebaumonUkraine.....BBC:RUTroll
Facto...
Subject:[AVERYRICHAFTERNOON/ESTRUN]JanuszB'snewarticleonNATO....[JDDD3-24I&II]Fwd:"Thewaiting
game:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"+10MoreStoriesFwd:AnneApplebaumon
Ukraine.....BBC:RUTrollFactoryFakedVideoofUSSoldierShootingAtQuran.....AC:CanMinskDeliveraSustainable
Peace?
From:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
Subject:MynewarticleonNATO
To:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
http://www.cepa.org/content/nato-imperative
JanuszBugajski
CenterforEuropeanPolicyAnalysis
WashingtonDC
www.jbugajski.com
heNATOImperative
ByJanuszBugajski
March24,2016
ThisweekRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpassertedthathewantedtoreduceU.S.commitmentstothe
NATOalliance.GiventhegravityofsuchaproposalitbecomesimperativetounderscorewhytheNorthAtlanticAlliance
remainsessentialnotonlyforprovidingsecurityforCentralandEasternEuropebutalsoforprecludingconflictsthat
couldagainembroiltheUnitedStates.
TheNATOallianceisindispensableforfourcorereasons.First,thereisnoviablealternativetoNATOsmilitarystructure
becausetheEuropeanUniondoesnotprovidesecurityforstatesfacingpotentialaggression.TheEUsCommonForeign
andSecurityPolicyisprimarilyadiplomaticmechanism,whichopenlyacknowledgesthatNATOremainsresponsiblefor
Europesterritorialdefense.AlthoughtheEUhasengagedinpeacekeeping,policing,andhumanitarianmissions,NATO
possessesthemaincombatforcenotonlyofitsEuropeanmembersbutmostimportantlyoftheUS.
ThesecondreasonaneffectiveNATOisneededisthatitcontributestoensuringtheinstitutionalintegrityofmembers
andpromotesregionalstabilitybetweenthem.Itsentrystipulationsincludefunctionalstatehood,minorityrights,civilian
controloverthemilitary,andsettledborderswithneighbors.Allnewmembersneededtofulfillthesecriteriaandsuch
conditionalityalsogeneratesconfidenceforforeigninvestorsandsetsthestagefortheintegrationofmemberstatesinto
theEU.
ThethirdrationaleforastrongNATOthatembracesqualifiedaspirantsrevolvesaroundthesovereignchoiceofevery
independentstatetodetermineitsalliancesandsecuritylinksandnotremainvulnerabletopressurefrompredatory
powerssuchasRussia.IfMoscowsneighborsjoinNATO,thisposesnothreattoRussiassecuritycontrarytothe
Kremlinsclaims.However,membershipdoesthwartRussiasabilitytocontrolthesecountriessecurityposturesand
foreignpolicies.
AnaccommodationistWesternapproachthatconcedessomespecialnationalintereststoRussiatowarditsformer
coloniesisnotonlyunacceptabletoallindependentstatesthatemergedfromtheSovietbloc,butitalsowhetsMoscows
appetiteforfurtherimperialaggrandizement.IftheKremlinoperateswiththeconvictionthatithasafreehandto
methodicallyunderminecountriesalongitsborders,thiscouldresultinseriousmiscalculationsandsparkconflictswith
AlliancemembersandtheUSitself.
ThefourthfundamentalreasonwhyaNATOmilitarypresenceparticularlyinEuropeseastisvitalisthatitformsthemost
effectivedeterrentandrespondertomajornewthreats.TwocorechallengesemanatefromRussia:expansionand
implosion.Moscow'sprimaryobjectiveistorestoreRussiaasapoleofpowerandreverseUSinfluenceinEurope.This
hasgeneratedthesubversionofneighbors,proxywars,andevenoutrightRussianmilitaryinvasions,asevidentin
GeorgiaandUkraine,togetherwithperiodicthreatsagainstNATOseasternflank.
RussiaspotentialimplosioncouldforeshadowanevenmoreunpredictablefutureinwhichNATOwouldneedtomanage
themulti-regionalrepercussions.AnoverstretchedRussiamaywitnessescalatingeconomic,social,political,andsub-
regionalturmoilandpresentevenmoremenacingtestsforWesternpolicy.AhugefailedstateonEuropesdoorstep
wouldhavenumerousdestabilizingconsequenceswhetherrefugeeoutflows,thespilloverofviolence,orcivilwars,
togetherwiththeemergenceofunpredictablenewstates.NATOneedstoassessthepossibleconsequencesofthe
chaoticdownfallofthePutinistsystemandpreparecontingenciesfortheconflictsthatthismaygenerate.Inparticular,
Russiasneighborsmustbeshieldedfromthemostdestabilizingconflictscenarios,whichcouldspillontoNATO
territory.
NATOsEuropeanflankremainsdependentontheUSforitssecurity,particularlyasmanyWestEuropeanalliesare
failingintheirmutualdefenseresponsibilities.Washingtonprovides70%ofallNATOdefensespending,whileEuropes
contributiontoNATOsmilitarycapabilitiesislessthan25%.Severalcountrieshavedecimatedtheirbudgetsand
equipmenttosuchanextentthattheymaybeincapableofdeployingmorethanafewthousandtroopsintheeventof
outrightwar.Meanwhile,Russiaisre-armingtothetuneof$700billionoverthenextdecadeandplanstointroducethe
nextgenerationofarmor,aircraftandmissiles,andtomodernizeitsnuclearforces.
SincetheendoftheColdWar,USofficialshaveproddedtheirEuropeancounterpartstoincreasedefensespendingin
linewithNATOguidelinesof2%ofGDP.OverthepastdecadeonlyahandfulofNATOmembershaveconsistentlymet
Alliancerequirements.Inadditiontoincreasedfunding,theEuropeansmustpursuemilitarymodernizationandeliminate
waste,duplication,andmismanagementIfthecurrentfeeblenessindefensespendingcontinues,thenextUSpresident
willcomeunderincreasingdomesticpressuretocurtailAmericascommitmenttoEuropessecurity.
Nonetheless,intheclamoroverbudgets,WashingtonmustnotlosesightofthebenefitsthatNATOultimatelybringsto
theUS.Inadditiontointelligencesharingandmultilateralpoliticalandmilitarycooperationinconfrontingcommon
challenges,theAllianceremainsthemosteffectivetoolforpreventinganysinglepowerfromdominatingEuropea
scenariothatdraggedtheUSintotwodestructivewarsduringthe20thcentury.
ThefurtherweakeningofNATOwouldsimplyprovokenewaggressionbothagainstandwithinEurope,andtheultimate
costtoAmericawouldbefargreaterthanthecurrentone.TheEUitselffacesexistentialproblems,stemmingfromits
institutional,financial,andpoliticaldisputes.Inapotentiallyunstableandfracturingcontinent,NATOremainsthesole
multinationalorganizationthatcanprovideEuropewithsomemeasureofcoherenceaswellasabindingtransatlanticlink
withWashington.
BacktoEurope'sEdge...

Subject:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"themoscowtimes.com,3/23
"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"
And:TheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairs:LAVROVandKERRYdiscussedSavchenkoattheir
meetinginMoscow,newsru.com,3/24
And:KremlinsaysitknowsnothingaboutPoroshenko-PutinDEALonSavchenko,unian.info,3/23
And:NAVALNYIblog:ConcerningtheSavchenkocase,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corrup0tion/1734764-echo/
NomatterfromwhatangleyoulookatthecaseitisunprofitableforRussiaanddirectlycontradicts
notonlythelong-terminterestsofRussiabutevenPutinstacticalgoals.[Heexplainswhy]
And:CanMinsk-2beimplemented?Thewarofinterpretationsofthepeaceagreements,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72348.html?print=1
And:HillaryCLINTON[inspeechyesterdayatStanford]dismisses[Republican]rivalsforreckless
actionsinforeignpolicy,nytimes.com,3/24
ClintononWednesdayridiculedtheforeignpolicyprescriptionsofDonaldJ.TrumpandSenatorTed
Cruz,callingthemrecklessactionsthatwouldalienateAmericasclosestallies,demonizeMuslimsand
EMPOWERRUSSIA.IfMr.Trumpgetshisway,itwillbelikeChristmasintheKremlin,Mrs.Clinton
said.ItwillmakeAmericalesssafeandtheworldmoredangerous.
And:The[Russianeconomic]Depressionwilllastalongtime,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/03/22/1500162.html
And:Russianslost200billionrubles[$2.9billion]from[private]pensionsavingsin2015,
And:DuetotheeconomiccrisisRussianshavestoppedshoppinginopenairmarketswherethequality
offoodisbetterandareshoppinginchaingrocerystorestosavemoney.26%havehadtoreducetheir
purchasesofgroceries:http://www.newsru.com/finance/24mar2016/ruretailpref_html
And:ViewsofNikolaiPETROV,formerlyofCarnegieMoscow:Pain,angerandhatred.Threelessons
forRussiannationalistsfromtheUkrainiancrisis,http://slon.ru/posts/65611
And:OnthedemotionofSergeiMIRONENKO,long-termheadoftheRussianArchives:Battleinthe
ArchivesUncoveringRussiassecretpast,themsocowtimes.com,3/24
Thesacrificeofthe28PanfilovsguardsmenbecameaSovietsymbolButlastyear,thestoryitself
becameabattleground.SergeiMironenko,thelongtimedirectoroftheRussianStateArchive,
denouncedthetaleasafakeandpublisheddocumentstoproveit.Inthestormthatfollowedthe
revelation,VladimirMedinskytheRussiancultureminister,attackedMironenko.Inmid-March
Mironenkowasdemoted.
Subject:FW:MichaelKimmelmanonpublicspaces,IanBurumaonBrussels,AnneApplebaumonUkraine
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
From:TheNewYorkReviewofBooks[mailto:newsletters@nybooks.com]
Sent:Wednesday,March23,201611:30AM
To:JohnBDunlop
Subject:MichaelKimmelmanonpublicspaces,IanBurumaonBrussels,AnneApplebaumonUkraine
Newonnybooks.com:MichaelKimmelmanontheneedforpublicspaces,Anne
ApplebaumonUkrainianhistory,IanBurumaonBrusselsandthefutureofEurope,and
RobynCreswellonwhatSyrianswantfortheircountryafterfiveyearsofwar.
IntheReviewsApril7issue
TheCravingforPublicSquares
MichaelKimmelman
TheVictoryofUkraine IntheCapitalofEurope
AnneApplebaum IanBuruma
History,journalism,andthestruggle Brusselshasbeenahavenfordissidents,
forindependence misfits,bohemians,andrefugees
Alsointhisissue:PerryLinkonMaospoetry,DavidRieffonUNpeacekeeping,
RobertWinteronCharlesRosensrecordings,andmore
NYRDaily
VoicesfromaDifferentSyria
RobynCreswell
Calendar
Fischli/Weiss AstroNoise Removed
TwoSwissartistswho LauraPoitrassnewwork EricPickersgill

defyconventionalnotions concernssystemsof makesportraitsofpeople
ofthepropermaterial secretsurveillancethat lockedinanintimategaze
fromwhichtomakeart haveproliferatedsince withamissingdevice
9/11
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Subject:BBCSaysRussiasTrollFactoryFakedaVideoShowingaUSSoldierShootingataQuran
To:
http://globalvoices.org/2016/03/23/bbc-says-russias-troll-factory-faked-a-video-showing-a-us-soldier-shooting-at-a-koran/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NewCampaign&utm_term=*SituationReport
From:ACEurasiaCenter<eurasiaevents@atlanticcouncil.org>
Date:2016-03-2413:02GMT-04:00
Subject:CanMinskDeliveraSustainablePeace?
Toviewthisemailasawebpage,gohere.
CanMinskDeliveraSustainable
Peace?
ByMelindaHaring
Don'tMesswithKyiv's
Activists
ByJoshCohen
SeparatistsLaunchNew
"Passportization"Strategyin
EasternUkraine
ByAgniaGrigas
RecommendedReads
UkrainePilotSingsasRussiaJailsHerFor22YearsviaTheDailyBeast
Ukraine'sColdWarEraTanksRefitforModernDayWarfareviaBloomberg
Business
RevitalizingtheMinskAgreementviaProjectSyndicate
BodyofUkrainianReporterGongadzeFinallyBuriedviaRFE/RL
GroysmanasUkraine'sPrimeMinisterWouldSinkReformDrive,Further
ErodePublicSupportviaKyivPost
Russia's'New'ToolsforConfrontingtheWest:ContinuityandInnovationin
Moscow'sExerciseofPowerviaChathamHouse
UkraineAlertispublishedbytheAtlanticCouncil's 2015AtlanticCouncil
UkraineInitiative. Allrightsreserved.
Thisemailwassentto:waz2102@columbia.edu
Thisemailwassentby:AtlanticCouncil
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloorWashington,DC20005US
Werespectyourrighttoprivacy-viewourpolicy
ManageSubscriptions|UpdateProfile|One-ClickUnsubscribe
Senttime: 03/24/201608:58:38AM
Subject: FW:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"themoscowtimes.com,3/23
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"themoscowtimes.com,3/23
And:TheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairs:LAVROVandKERRYdiscussedSavchenkoattheir
meetinginMoscow,newsru.com,3/24
And:KremlinsaysitknowsnothingaboutPoroshenkoPutinDEALonSavchenko,unian.info,3/23
And:NAVALNYIblog:ConcerningtheSavchenkocase,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corrup0tion/1734764echo/
NomatterfromwhatangleyoulookatthecaseitisunprofitableforRussiaanddirectlycontradicts
notonlythelongterminterestsofRussiabutevenPutinstacticalgoals.[Heexplainswhy]
And:CanMinsk2beimplemented?Thewarofinterpretationsofthepeaceagreements,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72348.html?print=1
And:HillaryCLINTON[inspeechyesterdayatStanford]dismisses[Republican]rivalsforreckless
actionsinforeignpolicy,nytimes.com,3/24
ClintononWednesdayridiculedtheforeignpolicyprescriptionsofDonaldJ.TrumpandSenatorTed
Cruz,callingthemrecklessactionsthatwouldalienateAmericasclosestallies,demonizeMuslims
andEMPOWERRUSSIA.IfMr.Trumpgetshisway,itwillbelikeChristmasintheKremlin,Mrs.
Clintonsaid.ItwillmakeAmericalesssafeandtheworldmoredangerous.
And:The[Russianeconomic]Depressionwilllastalongtime,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/03/22/1500162.html
And:Russianslost200billionrubles[$2.9billion]from[private]pensionsavingsin2015,
And:DuetotheeconomiccrisisRussianshavestoppedshoppinginopenairmarketswherethe
qualityoffoodisbetterandareshoppinginchaingrocerystorestosavemoney.26%havehadto
reducetheirpurchasesofgroceries:http://www.newsru.com/finance/24mar2016/ruretailpref_html
And:ViewsofNikolaiPETROV,formerlyofCarnegieMoscow:Pain,angerandhatred.Threelessons
forRussiannationalistsfromtheUkrainiancrisis,http://slon.ru/posts/65611
And:OnthedemotionofSergeiMIRONENKO,longtermheadoftheRussianArchives:Battleinthe
ArchivesUncoveringRussiassecretpast,themsocowtimes.com,3/24
Thesacrificeofthe28PanfilovsguardsmenbecameaSovietsymbolButlastyear,thestoryitself
becameabattleground.SergeiMironenko,thelongtimedirectoroftheRussianStateArchive,
denouncedthetaleasafakeandpublisheddocumentstoproveit.Inthestormthatfollowedthe
revelation,VladimirMedinskytheRussiancultureminister,attackedMironenko.InmidMarch
Mironenkowasdemoted.
Senttime: 03/23/201608:17:32AM
FW:Trump,thegreatnegotiator,appearstoconcedetoPutinexactlywhatPutinwants(andgetnothinginreturn)andalsotofallforthePutinWW3
Subject:
line.
From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,March22,20161:24PM
Subject:Trump,thegreatnegotiator,appearstoconcedetoPutinexactlywhatPutinwants(andgetnothinginreturn)andalsotofall
forthePutinWW3line.
IwouldsaythatTrumpneedstolearnsomethingaboutPutin.InhisWashingtonPostinterviewheseemscluelesswith
respecttotheUkraineWar,NATO,andPutin'smodusoperandi.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/03/22/donaldtrumpsforeignpolicyplanwouldgiveputin
exactlywhathewants/#1c66e29d1806
Forbes Welcome
www.forbes.com
Forbes Welcome page Forbes is a global media company, focusing on business, investing, technology,
entrepreneurship, leadership, and lifestyle.
Senttime: 03/22/201608:55:33AM
Subject: FW:"RussiaseeksCRIMEALANDROUTEforSAVCHENKOrelease--SBUofficial,'themoscowtimes.com,3/22
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"RussiaseeksCRIMEALANDROUTEforSAVCHENKOrelease--SBUofficial,'themoscowtimes.com,3/22
YurtiyTandyt,anadvisertotheSBUchief,saidMoscowwasunwillingtoexchange[Nadezhda]
SavchenkoforRussianservicemencapturedineasternUkrainebecauseRussianauthoritieswanted
more.TherequestforlandroutetoCrimeawasputforwardbyanofficialclosetotheKremlin.
TandytsaidhetoldtheRussianofficialthatUkrainehadnoplanstotradeaprincessforhalfa
kingdomButhemaintainedthatUkrainewasreadyforanycompromises.
And:UkrainianpilotNadezhdaSAVCHENKOfoundguiltyinfarceRussiantrial:Pilotsentencedto22
years,telegraph.co.uk,3/22
And:POROSHENKO:IampreparedtoexchangeRussiansoldiersforSavchenko,news.liga.net,3/22
And:Savchenkoconvictedto22yearsinprison:COURTDIARY,themoscowtimes.com,3/22
And:RussianlawyerNikolaiPOLOZOVonthejudicialilliteracyoftheSavchenkotrial:
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/moscow_advokat/173482echo/
And:IlyaVARLAMOV,blog(stastistics),Twoyearsofsanctions:HowlifehaschangedinRussia,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/varlamov_i/1733448echo/
And:MillionsmoreRussians[13.4%ofpopulation]livinginpovertyaseconomiccrisisbites,
theguardian.com,3/22
And:[Ella]PAMFILOVA[presidentialhumanrightsombudsman]haswarnedPutinofthecatastrophic
growthofeconomicINEQUALITY[inRussia],mk.ru,3/22
And:KommersantonLevadapollingTrustinVladimirPutinhasreturnedtothePRECRIMEANlevel,
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2943566
And:AlekseiNAVALNYIblogonthe23millionpoundLondonhomeofVladimirYAKUNINsson(photos
ofthehome):http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/1733610echo/
And:MichaelCROWLEY,TrumpsforeignpolicyteambafflesGOPexperts,politico.com,3/21
AprivatesectorTrumpadviserisCarterPAGE,aformerinvestmentbankerandglobalenergy
consultantwhograduatedfromtheNavalAcademyPagehasblamedtheUSformisguidedand
provocativeactionstowardsRussianotableinlightofTrumpsfriendlywordsforRussianPresident
VladimirPutin.SpecificallyPagehasaccusedtheStateDepartmentstopofficialforUkraineand
Russia,VictoriaNULAND,ofFOMENTINGthe2014revolutionthatoverthrewUkrainesgovernment
achargeoftenlodgedbyMoscowandstronglydisputedbytheObamaadministration.
Senttime: 03/22/201609:34:03AM
FW:[EVENING/ESTITEMSOFINTEREST]A"MUSTSEE,CONSIDERANDDISSEMINATE"INTERVIEWWITHJAMESS[concerning
Subject:
RU'spresentmindset]IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?NyetTemuriYbringsattentiontoTrump'spositionvisavisUAJohnDbrin...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,March21,20164:42PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENING/ESTITEMSOFINTEREST]A"MUSTSEE,CONSIDERANDDISSEMINATE"INTERVIEWWITHJAMESS
[concerningRU'spresentmindset]IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?NyetTemuriYbringsattentiontoTrump'spositionvisavis
UAJohnDbrin...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Mar21,2016at7:31PM
Subject:[EVENING/ESTITEMSOFINTEREST]A"MUSTSEE,CONSIDERANDDISSEMINATE"INTERVIEWWITH
JAMESS[concerningRU'spresentmindset]IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?NyetTemuriYbringsattentionto
Trump'spositionvisavisUAJohnDbringsAttn.toTrump'spositionvisavisNATO
From:JamesSherr<james.sherr@area.ox.ac.uk>
Date:Mon,Mar21,2016at8:36AM
Subject:Various...andbelatedly[ED:A'MUSTSEEANDDISSEMINATE'ITEM---UA/TODAYINTERVIEW
WITHJAMESS]
Walter,
Incaseyouhaventseenit:
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-does-to-us-everything-they-accuse-us-of-doing-to-them-611575.html
JustbackfromoneweekinKyiv.........
Hopeyouarewell.
Verybest,
James
From:VRT
Subject:IsRUReallyPullingOutofSUY?NYET[ED:Averygoodpieceofanalysisjibeswithotheritemsreceived]
OPINION
IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?Nyet
ByMicahHalpern03/21/165:37am
RussiasPresident
VladimirPutinisoneofthosecharacterswe
VladimirPutin.(Photo
lovetohate.Heisobnoxious.Henever MANDELNGAN/AFP/Getty
apologizes.HeactstopreserveRussianinterest Images)
withoutconcernforblowback.Hedoesnot
careaboutinternationalmediaoptics.
TherecentannouncementthatRussiaispulling
outofSyriaisaperfectexampleofPutin-ism.
Theannouncementwasthemediaequivalentof
amassivetsunami.Nooneexpecteditto
happenanditcausedtidalwavesofincredulity
aroundtheworld.
Butinreality,RussiaisntpullingoutofSyria.
PutinistheexactoppositeofBarackObama.Obamaisstillconsideringandwaveringaboutwhattodoin
Syria.Putindeterminedwhatwasneededanddidit.Heisnowmovingontothenextstageoftheplanthat
willallowhimtoachievehislargerobjectives.TheUnitedStates,meanwhile,isstilltryingtofigureout
whatitsgoalsare.
Russiaisonlyapullingoutsomeoftheirgroundforces.IfRussiangroundforcesstayinSyriatoolong,they
willtakecasualtiesandthatishardtosellathome.EvenworseisRussiasforcesonthegroundcould
becomeaunifyingandmotivatingpowerforalltheotherlocalgroupsinvolvedinthequagmirecalledSyria.
TakealookatwhoandwhatPutinisleavinginplaceinSyria.Seeingthelistmakeshisnextmovecrystal
clear.
PutiniskeepingtotalcontroloftheRussianportinTartus,itsnavalheadquartersintheMediterraneanand
theMiddleEast.FromTartus,Russiacanlisteninonandcontrolalltheirassetsandtheirforcesasthey
roamthroughouttheregion.Theycanlistentoalmosteverythingthathappenswitheveryoneelse
throughouttheentireMiddleEast.TartusisahugestrategicassetforRussia.Creatingtheportwasoneof
PutinsmajorgoalsfromtheverybeginningofhisSyrianoperation.
SecuringapresenceinSyriaforthespecificpurposeof
monitoringtheMiddleEastwasPutinsplanfromthe
beginning.HewasneverinterestedinproppingupAssad.
PutinwillalsobekeepingthenewlyRussian-builtairforcebasesinLatakiaandHmeymim.Eachofthese
baseshousesdozensoffighterjets.Whenyouaddthosejetstothe30to40jetsontheRussianaircraft
carrierwhichisoffthecoastofTartus,thenumberofRussianfighterjetsaroundSyriareachesabout70
to75.
Thismaybeareductionbutitishardlyawithdrawal.
Soonaftertheannouncementwasmade,RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovmetUSSecretaryofState
JohnKerryinAmman,Jordan.ThefocusoftheirmeetingwastheceasefireinSyria.But,inreality,itwas
justabonetheRussiansthrewtoplacatetheUnitedStateswhichfeelsthatitisoutoftheloop.Russiais
justgoingthruthemotionsofkeepingtheUSinformed.
Ultimately,PutinhasbeenkeepingBasharAssadofSyriainpower.
WithAssadinpower,PutincouldbuildRussianinfrastructure.RussiadoesnotfeelthatAssad,onhisown,
hasthepowertostaybuttheyneedhiminplaceandtheywillkeephimthereuntilabetter
situationemerges.Thatbettersituationmayverylikelybeasplittingofthecountryintocantonsor
federations.AcantonforKurds,acantonforAlawites(whichisAssadsclan),acantonforHezbollahon
theGolanHeightsandacantonfortheSunnis.
RussiadoesnotwanteitherISISoralQaedatotakecontroloftheSunnicanton.TheIslamistsaretoo
explosiveandtoounpredictable.RussiaalsowantsIrantosendbacktheRevolutionaryGuardsandhave
HezbollahresumeitsroleinconfrontingISISandalNusra,thealQaedagroupinSyria.LetHezbollahand
Irandosomeoftheheavylifting.
ThistransitionwillallowPutintocontinueexercisingcontroloverSyriawithlessrisk.Hewillcontinueto
usehisairforceandcontinuetoattackallthosewhochallengeRussianassets.TheRussianswillnot
endangertheirownspecialforcesontheground.
Fornow,Russiahasachieveditgoals.Theyhavebuiltarealandapermanentpresenceintheregion.They
donotneedAssad.Theywantregionalcontrol.
PutinisinconstantcommunicationwithIsrael,assuringNetanyahuthatthesecurityofIsraelisapriority.
IsraeliPresidentRivlinwasvisitingMoscowdiscussingtheRussianagendaandIsraeliPrimeMinister
NetanyahuwasinvitedtoMoscowtocontinuetheconversationinafewdays.
Assad,forhispart,willbegHezbollahandIrantoincreaseitsforcesinhiscountry.
Butintheend,withorwithoutAssad,noonewillunseatRussiafromitsnewstrongholdinSyria.
So,yes,RussiaisscalingdowninSyria.Butwhattheyarereallydoingissecuringtheirassetsandsaying
leteveryoneelsebattleitoutwhilewemoveintoournewstatusandwatchandmonitoreverythinginthe
region.
SecuringapresenceinSyriaforthespecificpurposeofmonitoringtheMiddleEastwasPutinsplanfrom
thebeginning.HewasneverinterestedinproppingupAssad,keepingpeaceorreducingthedeathof
innocents.HisrealgoalwastoestablishRussiaasainternationalpower.
Unfortunately,mostoftheworldespeciallytheUnitedStates,neversawitcoming.Thatsagoodreason
peoplelovetohatePutin.
From:TemuriYakobashvili<temuri.yakobashvili@gmail.com>
Subject:TrumpFPteam!
PleasenotepartonUkraine!Alotofworkahead...
the-washington-post/
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPrevealsforeignpolicyteaminmeetingwiththeWashingtonPost[tapeofmeetingtobe
madepublic],"washingtonpost.com,3/21
...he[Trump]questionedtheUSscontinuedinvolvementinNATOand,onthesubjectofRussias
aggressioninUKRAINE,chargedthatAmericasalliesarenotdoinganything.[nottrue]'Ukraineisa
countrythataffectsusfarlessthanitaffectsothercountriesinNATO,andyetweredoingallthelifting,
Trumpsaid.TheyrenotdoinganythingWhyarewealwaystheonethatsleading,potentiallythe
thirdworldwarwithRussia.
Senttime: 03/22/201609:34:03AM
FW:[EVENING/ESTITEMSOFINTEREST]A"MUSTSEE,CONSIDERANDDISSEMINATE"INTERVIEWWITHJAMESS[concerning
Subject:
RU'spresentmindset]IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?NyetTemuriYbringsattentiontoTrump'spositionvisavisUAJohnDbrin...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Subject:Fwd:[EVENING/ESTITEMSOFINTEREST]A"MUSTSEE,CONSIDERANDDISSEMINATE"INTERVIEWWITHJAMESS
[concerningRU'spresentmindset]IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?NyetTemuriYbringsattentiontoTrump'spositionvisavis
UAJohnDbrin...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:[EVENING/ESTITEMSOFINTEREST]A"MUSTSEE,CONSIDERANDDISSEMINATE"INTERVIEWWITH
JAMESS[concerningRU'spresentmindset]IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?NyetTemuriYbringsattentionto
Trump'spositionvisavisUAJohnDbringsAttn.toTrump'spositionvisavisNATO
From:JamesSherr<james.sherr@area.ox.ac.uk>
Date:Mon,Mar21,2016at8:36AM
Subject:Various...andbelatedly[ED:A'MUSTSEEANDDISSEMINATE'ITEM---UA/TODAYINTERVIEW
WITHJAMESS]
Walter,
Incaseyouhaventseenit:
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-does-to-us-everything-they-accuse-us-of-doing-to-them-611575.html
JustbackfromoneweekinKyiv.........
Hopeyouarewell.
Verybest,
James
From:VRT
Subject:IsRUReallyPullingOutofSUY?NYET[ED:Averygoodpieceofanalysisjibeswithotheritemsreceived]
OPINION
IsRussiaReallyPullingOutFromSyria?Nyet
ByMicahHalpern03/21/165:37am
RussiasPresident
VladimirPutinisoneofthosecharacterswe
VladimirPutin.(Photo
lovetohate.Heisobnoxious.Henever MANDELNGAN/AFP/Getty
apologizes.HeactstopreserveRussianinterest Images)
withoutconcernforblowback.Hedoesnot
careaboutinternationalmediaoptics.
TherecentannouncementthatRussiaispulling
outofSyriaisaperfectexampleofPutin-ism.
Theannouncementwasthemediaequivalentof
amassivetsunami.Nooneexpecteditto
happenanditcausedtidalwavesofincredulity
aroundtheworld.
Butinreality,RussiaisntpullingoutofSyria.
PutinistheexactoppositeofBarackObama.Obamaisstillconsideringandwaveringaboutwhattodoin
Syria.Putindeterminedwhatwasneededanddidit.Heisnowmovingontothenextstageoftheplanthat
willallowhimtoachievehislargerobjectives.TheUnitedStates,meanwhile,isstilltryingtofigureout
whatitsgoalsare.
Russiaisonlyapullingoutsomeoftheirgroundforces.IfRussiangroundforcesstayinSyriatoolong,they
willtakecasualtiesandthatishardtosellathome.EvenworseisRussiasforcesonthegroundcould
becomeaunifyingandmotivatingpowerforalltheotherlocalgroupsinvolvedinthequagmirecalledSyria.
TakealookatwhoandwhatPutinisleavinginplaceinSyria.Seeingthelistmakeshisnextmovecrystal
clear.
PutiniskeepingtotalcontroloftheRussianportinTartus,itsnavalheadquartersintheMediterraneanand
theMiddleEast.FromTartus,Russiacanlisteninonandcontrolalltheirassetsandtheirforcesasthey
roamthroughouttheregion.Theycanlistentoalmosteverythingthathappenswitheveryoneelse
throughouttheentireMiddleEast.TartusisahugestrategicassetforRussia.Creatingtheportwasoneof
PutinsmajorgoalsfromtheverybeginningofhisSyrianoperation.
SecuringapresenceinSyriaforthespecificpurposeof
monitoringtheMiddleEastwasPutinsplanfromthe
beginning.HewasneverinterestedinproppingupAssad.
PutinwillalsobekeepingthenewlyRussian-builtairforcebasesinLatakiaandHmeymim.Eachofthese
baseshousesdozensoffighterjets.Whenyouaddthosejetstothe30to40jetsontheRussianaircraft
carrierwhichisoffthecoastofTartus,thenumberofRussianfighterjetsaroundSyriareachesabout70
to75.
Thismaybeareductionbutitishardlyawithdrawal.
Soonaftertheannouncementwasmade,RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovmetUSSecretaryofState
JohnKerryinAmman,Jordan.ThefocusoftheirmeetingwastheceasefireinSyria.But,inreality,itwas
justabonetheRussiansthrewtoplacatetheUnitedStateswhichfeelsthatitisoutoftheloop.Russiais
justgoingthruthemotionsofkeepingtheUSinformed.
Ultimately,PutinhasbeenkeepingBasharAssadofSyriainpower.
WithAssadinpower,PutincouldbuildRussianinfrastructure.RussiadoesnotfeelthatAssad,onhisown,
hasthepowertostaybuttheyneedhiminplaceandtheywillkeephimthereuntilabetter
situationemerges.Thatbettersituationmayverylikelybeasplittingofthecountryintocantonsor
federations.AcantonforKurds,acantonforAlawites(whichisAssadsclan),acantonforHezbollahon
theGolanHeightsandacantonfortheSunnis.
RussiadoesnotwanteitherISISoralQaedatotakecontroloftheSunnicanton.TheIslamistsaretoo
explosiveandtoounpredictable.RussiaalsowantsIrantosendbacktheRevolutionaryGuardsandhave
HezbollahresumeitsroleinconfrontingISISandalNusra,thealQaedagroupinSyria.LetHezbollahand
Irandosomeoftheheavylifting.
ThistransitionwillallowPutintocontinueexercisingcontroloverSyriawithlessrisk.Hewillcontinueto
usehisairforceandcontinuetoattackallthosewhochallengeRussianassets.TheRussianswillnot
endangertheirownspecialforcesontheground.
Fornow,Russiahasachieveditgoals.Theyhavebuiltarealandapermanentpresenceintheregion.They
donotneedAssad.Theywantregionalcontrol.
PutinisinconstantcommunicationwithIsrael,assuringNetanyahuthatthesecurityofIsraelisapriority.
IsraeliPresidentRivlinwasvisitingMoscowdiscussingtheRussianagendaandIsraeliPrimeMinister
NetanyahuwasinvitedtoMoscowtocontinuetheconversationinafewdays.
Assad,forhispart,willbegHezbollahandIrantoincreaseitsforcesinhiscountry.
Butintheend,withorwithoutAssad,noonewillunseatRussiafromitsnewstrongholdinSyria.
So,yes,RussiaisscalingdowninSyria.Butwhattheyarereallydoingissecuringtheirassetsandsaying
leteveryoneelsebattleitoutwhilewemoveintoournewstatusandwatchandmonitoreverythinginthe
region.
SecuringapresenceinSyriaforthespecificpurposeofmonitoringtheMiddleEastwasPutinsplanfrom
thebeginning.HewasneverinterestedinproppingupAssad,keepingpeaceorreducingthedeathof
innocents.HisrealgoalwastoestablishRussiaasainternationalpower.
Unfortunately,mostoftheworldespeciallytheUnitedStates,neversawitcoming.Thatsagoodreason
peoplelovetohatePutin.
From:TemuriYakobashvili<temuri.yakobashvili@gmail.com>
Subject:TrumpFPteam!
PleasenotepartonUkraine!Alotofworkahead...
the-washington-post/
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPrevealsforeignpolicyteaminmeetingwiththeWashingtonPost[tapeofmeetingtobe
madepublic],"washingtonpost.com,3/21
...he[Trump]questionedtheUSscontinuedinvolvementinNATOand,onthesubjectofRussias
aggressioninUKRAINE,chargedthatAmericasalliesarenotdoinganything.[nottrue]'Ukraineisa
countrythataffectsusfarlessthanitaffectsothercountriesinNATO,andyetweredoingallthelifting,
Trumpsaid.TheyrenotdoinganythingWhyarewealwaystheonethatsleading,potentiallythe
thirdworldwarwithRussia.
Senttime: 03/21/201612:08:19PM
FW:"DonaldTRUMPrevealsforeignpolicyteaminmeetingwiththeWashingtonPost[tapeofmeetingtobemadepublic],"washingtonpost.com,
Subject:
3/21
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPrevealsforeignpolicyteaminmeetingwiththeWashingtonPost[tapeofmeetingtobemadepublic],"
washingtonpost.com,3/21
he[Trump]questionedtheUSscontinuedinvolvementinNATOand,onthesubjectofRussias
aggressioninUKRAINE,chargedthatAmericasalliesarenotdoinganything.[nottrue]Ukraineisa
countrythataffectsusfarlessthanitaffectsothercountriesinNATO,andyetweredoingallthe
lifting,Trumpsaid.TheyrenotdoinganythingWhyarewealwaystheonethatsleading,
potentiallythethirdworldwarwithRussia.
Senttime: 03/18/201609:56:15AM
Subject: FW:Majorinterview:"TimothyASH:Despitemessinesstoday,UkrainecanstillbethenextPOLAND,"kyivpost.om,3/16
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,March18,20169:56AM
Subject:Majorinterview:"TimothyASH:Despitemessinesstoday,UkrainecanstillbethenextPOLAND,"kyivpost.om,3/16
And:EUcallsuponUNcountriestoimposeSANCTIONSagainstRussia,themoscowtimes.com,3/18
And:EUiscallinguponthe100countrieswhosignedtheMarch27,2014UNresolutioncondemning
RussiasseizureofCrimeaandviolationofUkrainesterritorialintegritytojoinitinimposingsanctions
againstRussia.
And:Syriashowsthat6Russiabuiltaneffectivemilitary.NowHOWwillPutinuseit?
wshingtonpost.com,3/18
And:AnticorruptioninvestigatorslaunchelectioncampaigninPUTINsBACKYARD[Barvikha],
themsocowtimes.com,3/18
And:PUTIN[inCrimea]:theconstructionoftheKERCHBRIDGEisasymbolofourunitywithCrimea
[seevideowithhiscomments],tvrain.ru,3/18
And:Professor[Andrei]ZUBOV:SyriaisPutinssecondgreatDEFEATafterUkraine,gordonua.com,
3/18
And:Signsofarift?TheKremlindoesntthinkTRUMPsPutin/Clintonadisfunny,bloomberg.com,
3/17
TheKremlincriticizedvideopostedbytheRepublicanUSpresidentialfrontrunnerscampaignthat
mocksHillaryClintonastooWEAKtodealwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.
And:Russianarchivechief[SergeiMIRONENKO]outafterdebunkingSovietWWIlegend,
Senttime: 03/17/201612:40:28PM
Subject: FW:"RussiacouldREDEPLOYtoSyriainHOURS,Putinsays,"washingtonpost.com,3/17
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"RussiacouldREDEPLOYtoSyriainHOURS,Putinsays,"washingtonpost.com,3/17
And:COSTofRussiasSyriancampaignrevealedas$480million[!],themoscowtimes.com,3/17
And:GermanyandFrance[MERKELandHOLLANDEpersonally]confirmantiRussiasanctionsuntil
fullMINSKimplementation,unian.info,3/17
And:RussianSANCTIONStoremainuntilCrimeareturnedtoUkraineUS[JohnKerry],
And:TheECONOMIST[magazine]ratesTrumppresidencyamongitstop10globalrisks:Warning:
VoteTrumpandgetterrorthreats,tradewarsandcurrencycrashes,politic.eu,3/17
And:JohnMcCAIN:PutinsshowtrialofNadiyaSavchenkoanattempttohumiliateUkraineforits
pursuitoffreedom,kyivpost.com,3/17VIDEO
And:Putinconfirmedthedeathoffifth[Russian]soldierinSyria,somethingwhichhadbeen
concealedbytheMinistryofDefense,http://newsru.com/russia/17mar2016/zhuravlov_print.html
And:OntheEMBEZZLEMENToftaxespaidbyRussiancitizensbytheRussiantaxcollectors,silovikiand
otherscoundrels:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/72239.html?print=1
And:PutinwillvisitCRIMEA;hewillinspecttheconstructionofthe[Kerch]BRIDGEandholda
meeting,http://newsru.com/17mar2016/crimea_print.html
Senttime: 03/15/201610:54:13AM
Subject: FW:"Russianfighterjets'CONTINUESYRIARAIDS'astroopswithdraw,"theguardian.com,3/15
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"Russianfighterjets'CONTINUESYRIARAIDS'astroopswithdraw,"theguardian.com,3/15
And:MichaelCrowleyandNahalToosi,DidPutinonceagainOUTFOXObama[inSyria]?
politico.com,3/15
And:Putin[inSyria]islikeamanwhobeatshiswife,PhilipHAMMOND[BritishForeignSecretary]
says,telegraph.co.uk,3/15
And:AnnaNemtsova,RussiaheartsDonaldTRUMP,thedailybeast.com,3/15
EvenasantiAmericanrhetoricheatsupinthecountry,theKremlinspuppetmastershavenothing
butPRAISEfortheGOPfrontrunner.
And:Report:RussiaclosingUNsHUMANRIGHTSOFFICEinMoscow,
And:DuringameetingwiththeMVDCollegiumPutinstatedthatRussianssupportREPRESSIVE
MEASURESiftheyaretakenintheinterestsofsociety,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/15mar2016/outinm,vd_print.html
Senttime: 03/15/201610:57:15AM
FW:[MORNINGRUN/EST3-15]Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcomingRussia'tocontinueairstrikes'after
Subject:
withdrawal......ForeignPolicySituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][Sorryifrepeattosomebccsectio...
Subject:Fwd:[MORNINGRUN/EST3-15]Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcomingRussia'tocontinueair
strikes'afterwithdrawal......ForeignPolicySituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][Sorryifrepeattosomebccsectio...
Subject:[MORNINGRUN/EST3-15]Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcomingRussia'tocontinueair
strikes'afterwithdrawal......ForeignPolicySituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][Sorryifrepeattosomebcc
sections]......InterviewwithCondiRiceinUA(interestinginsights)
Subject:Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcoming|Worldnews|TheGuardian
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/russia-exit-syria-vladimir-putin-military-tactical-move
Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalysts
neversawcoming
Fiveandahalfmonths,9,000fighterjetsorties,areprieveforBasharal-Assadsregime,thedowningofaRussian
passengerjetoverEgyptandtheendforeveroftheburgeoningbromancebetweentheTurkishandRussian
presidents:thusgoesthesummaryofRussiasinterventioninSyria,whichhasirrevocablychangedthecontoursofthe
five-year-oldconflictanditssurroundinggeopolitics.
IconsidertheobjectivesthathavebeensetfortheDefenceMinistrytobegenerallyaccomplished,VladimirPutin
announcedmatter-of-factlyonMondayevening,announcingtheimminentwithdrawalofRussiantroopsfromSyria.
Thevaguelystatedobjectiveoffightingterrorism,soconducivetomissioncreepandunfinishablewars,hasclearly
notbeenaccomplished.Isis,afterall,isstillverymuchthere.
Butifthereisindeednowawithdrawal,itwillpreventtheSyriamissionfromturningintoalong,drawn-outaffairwith
risingRussiancasualties.Already,analystshavenotedanincreasingnumberofsupportpersonneloperatinginthe
countryspecialforces,tankcrewsandheavyartillerythatbeganappearingoutsidetheLatakiabase.
TheresnotreallyhugeenthusiasmfortheSyrianconflictinthemilitaryandaworryaboutmissioncreep.Themore
forcesyouvegottherethemorevulnerableyouare,saidMarkGaleotti,professorofglobalaffairsatNewYork
UniversitywhoiscurrentlybasedinMoscow.
ButPutinsannouncementtookmilitaryanalystsbysurprise:ifRussiasdramaticentryintoSyriawaspresagedbya
quietbutnoticeablelogisticalbuild-up,nobodysawtheexitcoming,includingthosewithcloselinkstothemilitary
hierarchy.
Ofcourse,therepeatedstatementsofimplausibledeniabilityovertheRussianarmysUkrainianadventures,andtheir
claimstobeexclusivelytargetingterroristgroupingsinSyria,haveallmadeithardtoswallowanythingthatcomes
outofofficialMoscowwithoutahealthydollopofcynicism.NottomentiontherepeatedinsistencethattheSyria
bombinghasnotresultedinanyciviliancasualties,despiteever-mountingevidencetothecontrary.
Thishasledmanytoquestionwhetherthiswithdrawalisforreal.PutinorderedthepullouttostartonTuesday,but
gavenoenddate.Equally,ithasbeenmadeclearthattheHmeymimairbaseoutsideLatakiafromwhichRussiahas
launcheditsairraidswillremaininuse.Itisnotknownhowsmallthesmallcontingentthatwillremainbehindwill
be,anditwillalmostcertainlystillinvolveadvancedairdefencesystems.Additionally,nowtheinfrastructureisin
place,nothingistostopRussiafromredeployingevenmorequicklyandunexpectedlythaninlateSeptember.
ButthereisgoodreasontobelievePutinsannouncementistobetakenseriously.Forwhileitistruethemissionof
defeatingIsishasnotbeenaccomplished,nobodywhohastakenthemostcursoryglanceatthemapofwhere
Russianbombslandedwouldhavebelievedthistobetherealmission.EventhegoalofproppinguptheSyrianstate
institutionstokeepBasharal-AssadinpowerandpreventthekindofpowervacuumseeninLibyaandIraqafter
theirleadersweredeposedwassecondary,accordingtomanyanalysts.
NobodywantedtodealwithRussiaafterUkraine,andthegoaloftheSyriacampaignwastoforcethewesttodeal
withRussiaagain,saidindependentmilitaryanalystAlexanderGolts.Thishashappened,andnowtheyaregetting
outoftheconflictwithminimallosses.Ithinkitsaprettybrillianttacticalmove.
Subject:Syriaconflict:Russia'tocontinueairstrikes'afterwithdrawal-BBCNews
Maybeit'sjustmoreconvenienttohavethosegroundtroopsclosertohome,closertothesouthernborders.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35812371
Subject:SituationReport:PutinSyriaploy
S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : P u t i n S y r i a p l o y t o p U . S . g e n e r a l w a n t s m o r e b o m b i n g i n A f g h a n i s t a n A m e r i c a n I S I S f i g h t e r s h a v i n g a r o u g h w e e k r o b o t s k i n g e t s c r e e p y a n d l o t s m o r e
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SITUATIONREPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeign
Policy

Tuesday,March15,2016 SUBSCRIBETOFP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley
Reduction,notwithdrawal.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsurprisedusallagain
Mondaywiththeannouncementthathiswarplanesandtroopswouldbeginpullingoutof
Syria.Underscoringthatpromise,onTuesdayRussiannewschannelsbroadcastvideo
ofsoldierspackingupcargoplanesandwarplanestakingofffromtheairbasein
Latakiaforthelongjourneyhome.
TheRussianinvolvementinthewarishardlyover,however.RussianSenatorViktor
Ozerovsaidasmanyas800soldierswouldlikelyremaininSyriatoguardtheairbase
andRussianportfacilities,anddeputydefenseministerNikolaiPankovsaidTuesday
thatMoscowswarplaneswouldcontinuecarryingoutstrikesonterroristfacilitiesin
Syria.
FPsJohnHudsonandPaulMcLearywritethatthemovepressurestheregimeof
BasharalAssadtofinallyentertalkswithrebelgroupsinGenevathisweekreadyto
makeadeal,sincetheprotectiveblanketofunconditionalRussiansupporthasfinally
beenpulled.Inrelatednews,itturnsoutthatsinceaboutFeb.27,Russianplanes
havefocusedtheirbombingprimarilyonIslamicStatetargetsforthefirsttime,
accordingtoPentagonofficials.
Syria
ChemicalwarfarewasstilltakingplaceinSyriatothetuneof69attackslastyear,
bringingtheestimatedtotalforthefive-yearwarupto161attacks,accordingtoanew
reportbythenonprofitSyrianAmericanMedicalSociety.Theorganization'sdatashows
thatchemicalweaponskilledatleast1,491people.Thevastmajorityofattacksor77
percenthavetakenplacesincetheU.N.SecurityCouncilResolution2118,requiringthe
Assadregimetodestroyitschemicalweaponsstockpiles.
Iran
TheU.S.andRussiaarefeudingattheU.N.SecurityCounciloverwhethertoapply
sanctionsagainstIraninresponsetoitsrecentseriesofballisticmissiletests.The
disputeboilsdowntodifferinginterpretationsofSecurityCouncilresolution2331,which
callsonIrantoabandonitsmissilework.TheRussiansseethatlanguageasmoreofa
suggestion,whiletheU.S.interpretsitasaprohibition.Foritspart,Iranisalsoclaiming
tobeabsolvedofanymissileprohibitionsunderresolution2331,withIranianForeign
MinisterJavadZarifpinkyswearingthatIranwill"neveruseanymeanstoattackany
country,includingmissiles.
China
Chinahasanewspyplane,themannedCSA-003"Scout"electronicreconnaissance
aircraft.ThetwinengineturbopropplaneusesanAustrianDiamondDA42planeas
basicframeandaddsasuiteofelectronicintelligencesensorsandsatellitedatalinks.
Thesmallplanecanbeusedforintelligence-gatheringandonborderpatrolmissions.
TheDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA),theblue-skyPentagon
researchshopthatbroughtyoualittlethingcalledtheInternet,isquitepopularabroad.
Russiaannounceditwanteditsownadvancedresearchoutfitin2012,JapanandSouth
Koreahavetheirown,andnowChinaislookingtostandupitsownDARPA,according
toScienceInsider.ThepushforaChineseDARPAispartofChinesePresidentXi
Jinping'srecentreformpushinthePeople'sLiberationArmy.China'sDARPAwilltakethe
formofacommitteecalled"junweikejiwei"butunlikeitsAmericancounterpart,itsbudget
willremainastatesecret.
NorthKorea
Thispartyisjustgettingstarted.NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUnhasvowedthatthe
countrywillcarryoutyetmorenuclearandballisticmissiletests"soon,"accordingtothe
statenewsagencyKCNA.Thetestswillbe"conductedinashorttimetofurtherenhance
therelianceofnuclearattackcapability,"thegovernmentmouthpiecesaid.Gaugingthe
heatstabilityofmissilenoseconesisofparticularimportanceforthenextroundoftests.
NorthKoreahasalreadycarriedoutanundergroundnuclearweaponstestandballistic
missiletestthisyear.
Staffedup
IstheNationalSecurityCounciltoobig?Theseformergeneralsanddefenseofficials
sayyes.BreakingDefensereportsonanopenletterputtogetherbytheCenterfor
StrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)andsignedby28formerPentagonbigwigsfor
the30thanniversaryofthelandmarkGoldwater-Nicholsactwhichreformedthestructure
ofthemilitary.InapaneldiscussionatCSISaccompanyingthereleaseoftheletter,the
sizeoftheNationalSecurityCouncil,theWhiteHousestaffthatmanagesnational
securitypolicy,wasaparticularconcern.Stafftherehasballoonedfrom40to400people
intheperiodsincePresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushtookoffice.CSISpresidentJohnHamre
tookaimattheNSC'sroleinnationalsecuritybureaucracy,sayingits"excessive
demands"are"warping"theDepartmentofDefense.
RegisteratForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFPnewsletters.
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UNSUBSCRIBE GROUPSALESAND
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LICENSING
PRIVACYPOLICY CIRCLENW,SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036

From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:2016-03-159:58GMT-04:00
Subject:interviewwithCobdoleezzaRicereUkraine.Amen![ED:DITTO....BP....DITTO!!]
To:
[Translation:EnhancedGoogle]
-BecauseyouunderstandUkrainianconcerns/thatifworldleadersstresstheimportanceofcommoninterests
withRussia,thenoneday-forthesakeoftheseinterests-theycanyieldtoRussia.Forexample,inthe
Ukrainianquestion.
-YoushouldnotworrythattheUSatsomepointwill"surrender"itscurrentpositiononUkrainetoreachthe
desiredlevelofcooperationwithRussia.Idonotseesuchapossibility.Washingtondoesnotworkthatway.
TheUSgovernment,theambassadorinUkraine,SecretaryofState,VicePresidenthavespentalotoftimeto
helpUkraine,sothatyourstatecouldmovingforwarddespitethedifficulties.
Butthepurposeofthissupport-isforyou/tofinallybegintogovern.Thisis-thekey.
Youcannotlivepermanentlyincrisis!
Youhave25yearshaveseenthreerevolutions-independence,theOrangeRevolutionandtheMaidanin
2014.Maybeyoushouldfinallystarttorunthestate?
WealsowanttoseeUkraineasastrongandviable.AndthisshouldbetheprimaryconcernoftheUkrainian
leadership/.
http://www.eurointegration.com.ua/interview/2016/03/14/7046142/
:
,.,
.
,"",
...
,,,-,,
.
..
!
25,2014.
,?
..

Senttime: 03/15/201610:57:15AM
FW:[MORNINGRUN/EST3-15]Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcomingRussia'tocontinueairstrikes'after
Subject:
withdrawal......ForeignPolicySituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][Sorryifrepeattosomebccsectio...
Subject:Fwd:[MORNINGRUN/EST3-15]Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcomingRussia'tocontinueair
strikes'afterwithdrawal......ForeignPolicySituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][Sorryifrepeattosomebccsectio...
Subject:[MORNINGRUN/EST3-15]Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcomingRussia'tocontinueair
strikes'afterwithdrawal......ForeignPolicySituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][Sorryifrepeattosomebcc
sections]......InterviewwithCondiRiceinUA(interestinginsights)
Subject:Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalystsneversawcoming|Worldnews|TheGuardian
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/russia-exit-syria-vladimir-putin-military-tactical-move
Russia'sexitfromSyriaamovemilitaryanalysts
neversawcoming
Fiveandahalfmonths,9,000fighterjetsorties,areprieveforBasharal-Assadsregime,thedowningofaRussian
passengerjetoverEgyptandtheendforeveroftheburgeoningbromancebetweentheTurkishandRussian
presidents:thusgoesthesummaryofRussiasinterventioninSyria,whichhasirrevocablychangedthecontoursofthe
five-year-oldconflictanditssurroundinggeopolitics.
IconsidertheobjectivesthathavebeensetfortheDefenceMinistrytobegenerallyaccomplished,VladimirPutin
announcedmatter-of-factlyonMondayevening,announcingtheimminentwithdrawalofRussiantroopsfromSyria.
Thevaguelystatedobjectiveoffightingterrorism,soconducivetomissioncreepandunfinishablewars,hasclearly
notbeenaccomplished.Isis,afterall,isstillverymuchthere.
Butifthereisindeednowawithdrawal,itwillpreventtheSyriamissionfromturningintoalong,drawn-outaffairwith
risingRussiancasualties.Already,analystshavenotedanincreasingnumberofsupportpersonneloperatinginthe
countryspecialforces,tankcrewsandheavyartillerythatbeganappearingoutsidetheLatakiabase.
TheresnotreallyhugeenthusiasmfortheSyrianconflictinthemilitaryandaworryaboutmissioncreep.Themore
forcesyouvegottherethemorevulnerableyouare,saidMarkGaleotti,professorofglobalaffairsatNewYork
UniversitywhoiscurrentlybasedinMoscow.
ButPutinsannouncementtookmilitaryanalystsbysurprise:ifRussiasdramaticentryintoSyriawaspresagedbya
quietbutnoticeablelogisticalbuild-up,nobodysawtheexitcoming,includingthosewithcloselinkstothemilitary
hierarchy.
Ofcourse,therepeatedstatementsofimplausibledeniabilityovertheRussianarmysUkrainianadventures,andtheir
claimstobeexclusivelytargetingterroristgroupingsinSyria,haveallmadeithardtoswallowanythingthatcomes
outofofficialMoscowwithoutahealthydollopofcynicism.NottomentiontherepeatedinsistencethattheSyria
bombinghasnotresultedinanyciviliancasualties,despiteever-mountingevidencetothecontrary.
Thishasledmanytoquestionwhetherthiswithdrawalisforreal.PutinorderedthepullouttostartonTuesday,but
gavenoenddate.Equally,ithasbeenmadeclearthattheHmeymimairbaseoutsideLatakiafromwhichRussiahas
launcheditsairraidswillremaininuse.Itisnotknownhowsmallthesmallcontingentthatwillremainbehindwill
be,anditwillalmostcertainlystillinvolveadvancedairdefencesystems.Additionally,nowtheinfrastructureisin
place,nothingistostopRussiafromredeployingevenmorequicklyandunexpectedlythaninlateSeptember.
ButthereisgoodreasontobelievePutinsannouncementistobetakenseriously.Forwhileitistruethemissionof
defeatingIsishasnotbeenaccomplished,nobodywhohastakenthemostcursoryglanceatthemapofwhere
Russianbombslandedwouldhavebelievedthistobetherealmission.EventhegoalofproppinguptheSyrianstate
institutionstokeepBasharal-AssadinpowerandpreventthekindofpowervacuumseeninLibyaandIraqafter
theirleadersweredeposedwassecondary,accordingtomanyanalysts.
NobodywantedtodealwithRussiaafterUkraine,andthegoaloftheSyriacampaignwastoforcethewesttodeal
withRussiaagain,saidindependentmilitaryanalystAlexanderGolts.Thishashappened,andnowtheyaregetting
outoftheconflictwithminimallosses.Ithinkitsaprettybrillianttacticalmove.
Subject:Syriaconflict:Russia'tocontinueairstrikes'afterwithdrawal-BBCNews
Maybeit'sjustmoreconvenienttohavethosegroundtroopsclosertohome,closertothesouthernborders.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35812371
Subject:SituationReport:PutinSyriaploy
S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : P u t i n S y r i a p l o y t o p U . S . g e n e r a l w a n t s m o r e b o m b i n g i n A f g h a n i s t a n A m e r i c a n I S I S f i g h t e r s h a v i n g a r o u g h w e e k r o b o t s k i n g e t s c r e e p y a n d l o t s m o r e
Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.Pleasefeelfreetoforwardittoafriend.

SITUATIONREPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeign
Policy

Tuesday,March15,2016 SUBSCRIBETOFP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley
Reduction,notwithdrawal.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsurprisedusallagain
Mondaywiththeannouncementthathiswarplanesandtroopswouldbeginpullingoutof
Syria.Underscoringthatpromise,onTuesdayRussiannewschannelsbroadcastvideo
ofsoldierspackingupcargoplanesandwarplanestakingofffromtheairbasein
Latakiaforthelongjourneyhome.
TheRussianinvolvementinthewarishardlyover,however.RussianSenatorViktor
Ozerovsaidasmanyas800soldierswouldlikelyremaininSyriatoguardtheairbase
andRussianportfacilities,anddeputydefenseministerNikolaiPankovsaidTuesday
thatMoscowswarplaneswouldcontinuecarryingoutstrikesonterroristfacilitiesin
Syria.
FPsJohnHudsonandPaulMcLearywritethatthemovepressurestheregimeof
BasharalAssadtofinallyentertalkswithrebelgroupsinGenevathisweekreadyto
makeadeal,sincetheprotectiveblanketofunconditionalRussiansupporthasfinally
beenpulled.Inrelatednews,itturnsoutthatsinceaboutFeb.27,Russianplanes
havefocusedtheirbombingprimarilyonIslamicStatetargetsforthefirsttime,
accordingtoPentagonofficials.
Syria
ChemicalwarfarewasstilltakingplaceinSyriatothetuneof69attackslastyear,
bringingtheestimatedtotalforthefive-yearwarupto161attacks,accordingtoanew
reportbythenonprofitSyrianAmericanMedicalSociety.Theorganization'sdatashows
thatchemicalweaponskilledatleast1,491people.Thevastmajorityofattacksor77
percenthavetakenplacesincetheU.N.SecurityCouncilResolution2118,requiringthe
Assadregimetodestroyitschemicalweaponsstockpiles.
Iran
TheU.S.andRussiaarefeudingattheU.N.SecurityCounciloverwhethertoapply
sanctionsagainstIraninresponsetoitsrecentseriesofballisticmissiletests.The
disputeboilsdowntodifferinginterpretationsofSecurityCouncilresolution2331,which
callsonIrantoabandonitsmissilework.TheRussiansseethatlanguageasmoreofa
suggestion,whiletheU.S.interpretsitasaprohibition.Foritspart,Iranisalsoclaiming
tobeabsolvedofanymissileprohibitionsunderresolution2331,withIranianForeign
MinisterJavadZarifpinkyswearingthatIranwill"neveruseanymeanstoattackany
country,includingmissiles.
China
Chinahasanewspyplane,themannedCSA-003"Scout"electronicreconnaissance
aircraft.ThetwinengineturbopropplaneusesanAustrianDiamondDA42planeas
basicframeandaddsasuiteofelectronicintelligencesensorsandsatellitedatalinks.
Thesmallplanecanbeusedforintelligence-gatheringandonborderpatrolmissions.
TheDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA),theblue-skyPentagon
researchshopthatbroughtyoualittlethingcalledtheInternet,isquitepopularabroad.
Russiaannounceditwanteditsownadvancedresearchoutfitin2012,JapanandSouth
Koreahavetheirown,andnowChinaislookingtostandupitsownDARPA,according
toScienceInsider.ThepushforaChineseDARPAispartofChinesePresidentXi
Jinping'srecentreformpushinthePeople'sLiberationArmy.China'sDARPAwilltakethe
formofacommitteecalled"junweikejiwei"butunlikeitsAmericancounterpart,itsbudget
willremainastatesecret.
NorthKorea
Thispartyisjustgettingstarted.NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUnhasvowedthatthe
countrywillcarryoutyetmorenuclearandballisticmissiletests"soon,"accordingtothe
statenewsagencyKCNA.Thetestswillbe"conductedinashorttimetofurtherenhance
therelianceofnuclearattackcapability,"thegovernmentmouthpiecesaid.Gaugingthe
heatstabilityofmissilenoseconesisofparticularimportanceforthenextroundoftests.
NorthKoreahasalreadycarriedoutanundergroundnuclearweaponstestandballistic
missiletestthisyear.
Staffedup
IstheNationalSecurityCounciltoobig?Theseformergeneralsanddefenseofficials
sayyes.BreakingDefensereportsonanopenletterputtogetherbytheCenterfor
StrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)andsignedby28formerPentagonbigwigsfor
the30thanniversaryofthelandmarkGoldwater-Nicholsactwhichreformedthestructure
ofthemilitary.InapaneldiscussionatCSISaccompanyingthereleaseoftheletter,the
sizeoftheNationalSecurityCouncil,theWhiteHousestaffthatmanagesnational
securitypolicy,wasaparticularconcern.Stafftherehasballoonedfrom40to400people
intheperiodsincePresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushtookoffice.CSISpresidentJohnHamre
tookaimattheNSC'sroleinnationalsecuritybureaucracy,sayingits"excessive
demands"are"warping"theDepartmentofDefense.
RegisteratForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFPnewsletters.
TRENDINGONFOREIGNPOLICY.COM

SaudiArabias
DestructiveOil InChina,Trump KenyasVicious
ToiletsMake WarAgainstIts
Freeze
PoopingGreat Youth

byRobertMosbacher,
Jr.

Again

byNanjalaNyabola

byBethanyAllen-
Ebrahimian

Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

UPDATEPROFILE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFPGroup,a
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From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:2016-03-159:58GMT-04:00
Subject:interviewwithCobdoleezzaRicereUkraine.Amen![ED:DITTO....BP....DITTO!!]
To:
[Translation:EnhancedGoogle]
-BecauseyouunderstandUkrainianconcerns/thatifworldleadersstresstheimportanceofcommoninterests
withRussia,thenoneday-forthesakeoftheseinterests-theycanyieldtoRussia.Forexample,inthe
Ukrainianquestion.
-YoushouldnotworrythattheUSatsomepointwill"surrender"itscurrentpositiononUkrainetoreachthe
desiredlevelofcooperationwithRussia.Idonotseesuchapossibility.Washingtondoesnotworkthatway.
TheUSgovernment,theambassadorinUkraine,SecretaryofState,VicePresidenthavespentalotoftimeto
helpUkraine,sothatyourstatecouldmovingforwarddespitethedifficulties.
Butthepurposeofthissupport-isforyou/tofinallybegintogovern.Thisis-thekey.
Youcannotlivepermanentlyincrisis!
Youhave25yearshaveseenthreerevolutions-independence,theOrangeRevolutionandtheMaidanin
2014.Maybeyoushouldfinallystarttorunthestate?
WealsowanttoseeUkraineasastrongandviable.AndthisshouldbetheprimaryconcernoftheUkrainian
leadership/.
http://www.eurointegration.com.ua/interview/2016/03/14/7046142/
:
,.,
.
,"",
...
,,,-,,
.
..
!
25,2014.
,?
..

From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/25/201605:42:03PM
To: JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Subject: Fwd:Howtotamejihadists
Thisshouldflushoutthefellowtravellers
From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Subject:Fwd:Howtotamejihadists
Date:26March20169:37:55amAEDT
To:silvanamalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,
"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,RichardConnolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
PhilHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,
"segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,juliancooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,LizTeague<Teagueeliza@aol.com>,"carolinavendilpallin"
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
SomeofyoumightlikethePutin-Trumparticle.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
From:TheEconomistNewsDesk<e-mail@economist.com>
Date:26March2016at05:27:05AEDT
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Subject:Howtotamejihadists
Viewinbrowser|E-mailafriend

THEBESTOFTHEECONOMISTINTHEPAST24HOURS

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Conditions|Help

RegisteredinEnglandandWales.No.236383
Registeredoffice:25StJamessStreet.London,SW1A1HG
From: KirkBennett<kirkbennett7@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 03/14/201611:14:34AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:DraftEssay
Russianshakingandbuttingmightnotbringdownthepillarsofpost-ColdWarEuropeansecurity,b
utourownfoolishnessmight.
--------------------------------------------
OnMon,3/14/16,Bobwrote:
Subject:Re:DraftEssay
To:"KirkBennett"
Date:Monday,March14,2016,1:07PM
FWIW,thisguymight
thinkyouaretoosanguineontheWest:
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2016/03/13/as_pundits_ponder_the_end_of_the_west_111759.ht
ml
Sentfrommy
iPad
>OnMar14,2016,at
11:23AM,KirkBennett
wrote:
>
>Yes,I
supposeitdoes.ButIimagineifIweren'timpatient
withtheRussiansIwouldn'tbewritingtheessayinthe
firstplace...
>
>
Thanksagainforyourhelp.I'vedoneonelastscrub
toremoveanythingthatmightseemgratuitous,andI'll
seewhatTheAmericanInterestthinks.
>
>Kirk
>
>
--------------------------------------------
>OnMon,3/14/16,RobertOtto
wrote:
>
>Subject:
Re:DraftEssay
>To:Kirkbennett7@yahoo.com
>Date:Monday,March14,2016,3:18AM
>
>Itstill
>showsthesameimpatience,Kirk.
>
>
>OnMar13,
>2016,at
3:28PM,Kirkbennett7@yahoo.com
>wrote:
>Bob-I
>haventchangedawholelotinthis
version-perhapsnot
>enough-but
maybeitsatleastmarginallybetter.
>Letmeknowwhatyouthink.
>Thanksagain!
>Kirk
>
>SentfromWindows
Mail
>From:RobertOtto
>Sent:Sunday,
>
March1 3, 20161:2 4A M
>To:Kirk
>Bennett
>Kirk:
>Yes,
>smootherorflatter.Whydontyou
sendittome
>aftertherevisionsandI
willseeifitworks.
>OnNovorossiya:
yes,butsome,not
>all,ofthefolks
whouseitseePutinsbackingforMinsk
>IIasabetrayal.
>
Finally,onthelastparagraph,you
>
mightfindthisoneofuse:
>http://m.forbes.ru/article.php?id=313863
>OnMar12,
>2016,at
8:20AM,KirkBennett
>wrote:
>Bob-Thank
youverymuch,thisis
>exactlythesort
offeedbackIneed.I'llgo
>
throughandlookforotherroughedgesthatcouldusea
>littlesmoothingdown.Pleaseletme
knowifthere
>wereanyotherlittle
rhetoricalflourishesthatseemed
>
particularlyharshorinaccurate.DoyouthinkI
>shoulddropthelastparagraph?I've
been
>debating.
>
>Regarding"Novorossiya,"I
>wouldarguethatPutinhasdroppedthe
termsolelyoutof
>sheer
embarrassment.Hehasmadeclearforyearshis
>beliefthatUkraineisanartificialstate
cobbledtogether
>mostlyfrom
"Russian"lands.However,the
>Novorossiyaprojectbombed,sohe's
notgoingtotrumpet
>itunderthe
currentcircumstances.Nevertheless,lots
>ofotherRussiansstillchatteronabout
Novorossiya,andif
>thesituationwere
tochangeinMoscow'sfavor,Iwould
>notbeatallsurprisedtohearPutin
suddenlyspeakout
>aboutNovorossiyaas
thelatestRussian"holyof
>
holies."RememberwhattheFrenchusedtosay
>aboutAlsace-Lorraine:"Thinkofit
always,speak
>ofitnever."
>
>Manythanksonce
again!
>
>Kirk
>
--------------------------------------------
>OnSat,3/12/16,RobertOtto
>wrote:
>
>Subject:Re:DraftEssay
>To:"KirkBennett"
>Date:Saturday,March12,2016,4:10
>AM
>
>Kirk
>Your
>impatiencewiththeRussians
>really
>showsinthis
piece,Kirk.
>I
>
dontdisagreewiththeoverall
>
argument,butitstonewill,nodoubt,
>
putoffsome
>readers.
>Thisarticleisfarmorepolemical
>thanthepieceoncontainment.
>Anexample?
>
Cherishedrusskiymir.?
>The
>lasttimePutinusedthis
>wasinNovemberoflast
>year.afteranabsencestarting
>inJuly
>2014.
>Thatis,hisuseofthishasbeen
>infrequentatbestandhardlymerits
>thatadjective.(BTW,
>he
>hasntused
NovorossiyasinceValdayin
>2014).
>Your
>strongestpoint,
btw,and
>something
>
Iwishotherswouldfocuson:thedecreasein
>NATOpowerduringtheexpansionup
>to
>Crimea.
>(Igetabitwearyoverthe
>constant
>refrainof
Russianconcern
>overNATOw/oreference
tothe
>above.Inadifferent,but
related
>vein,whereisthe
>RussianSteveCohen?a
>personwhowillstandupand
>ask
>hardquestions
aboutwhyformeralliesrushedtoget
>
intotheenemycamp)?
>Allofthis
isawayofsayingthat
>yourarguments
mightbe
>morepersuasivetoyour
opponents
>ifyoumadethepieceless
polemical
>asitstand,Ifear,
>folkswill
>justthrow
youintotheanti-Russian
>camp.
>You
>mightfindthis
flightoffancy
>of
>
use:
>http://globalaffairs.ru/global-processes/Istoricheskaya-perspektiva-vneshnei-politiki-Rossii-18
017
>bob
>
>
>
>
>
>On
>Mar11,
>2016,at9:49AM,KirkBennett
>wrote:
>Bob
>Ifyouhavetimeinthe
>coming
>weekorso,
Idbeextremelygratefulifyoucould
>takealookatthisdraftessay.
>Itsanotherattemptat
>a
>sweepingtreatment
ofthesubject,andIwanttomake
>
sure
>theanalysisisasaccurate,
>completeandfairasit
>reasonably
>canbe.
Ifyoudonthavetime,justletme
>
know.
>
>Thanks!
>
>Kirk
>
FRUSTRATION.docx>
>
>TO
FRUSTRATION2.docx>

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