From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

edu>
Senttime: 06/28/201609:11:57AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
Subject:
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,June28,20169:11AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html

HiscommentscomeaheadoftheJuly89summitinWarsawwhereNATOleadersareexpectedto
endorseasubstantialincreaseinforcesinPolandandtheBalticstates

And:LITHUANIA[ForeignMinisterLinkevicius]warnsabouteasingantiRussianSANCTIONSafter
Brexit,themoscowtimes.com,6/28

And:RussiasaysUSwarship[USSGRAVELY]inNEARMISSwithRussianvessel[Russiannavyfrigate
YaroslavMudry]inMediterranean,reuters.com,6/28

And:UNIAN:PoroshenkoexpectspositivesanctionsagainstRussiaatEUsummit[onJune2829],
kyivpost.com,6/28

And:LeadinginvestigativejournalistOlegKASHIN,Anew1937[Stalinstylegreatpurge]:whydid
theyarrest[Governor]NikitaBELYKH?http://slon.ru/posts/70007

And:KonstantinREMCHUKOV,PutinhassentaSIGNALtothesystemicopposition,indicatingwho
couldbeworsethanatraitordetailedinterviewontheupcomingDumaelections,thearrestof
NikitaBelykhandmuchmore:ng.ru,6/28[originalpostedonEkhoMoskvywebsite]

And:PutindentsTURKISHhopesforquickrestorationofrelations,reuters.com,6/28

And:HillaryCLINTONisinterviewedbyEkhoMoskvy:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/1792040
echo/

And:Bizarre:Trumplawyer[MichaelCOHEN]accusesClintonofMURDERintweet,
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trumplawyerclintonmurder224876

DonaldTrumpslawyeraccusedHillaryClintonofmurderinganambassadorandsellingURANIUM
toRUSSIAthroughherfalsecharity

 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/06/201607:03:53AM
To: MargaretH<m.hh1@hotmail.com>
Subject: Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary|NewYorkPost

Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary
Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary

Hillaryhasbecomeaspookscandidate.FormerdeputyCIADirectorMichaelMorell,whosoconvenientlycoveredher
tracksinBenghazi,hasnowconfirmedit.

InaglowingendorsementhisfriendsatTheNewYorkTimesprominentlyfeaturedFriday,Morellgavehisfull-throated
supporttoClinton,whileinsistingthathewasnopartisanandhadevenvotedRepublicaninthepast.

Likeanobedientpartyhackvyingforanewjob,MorellspoutedthepartylinethatDonaldTrumpwasnotonly
unqualifiedforthejob,buthemaywellposeathreattoournationalsecurity.

ModalTrigger

MichaelMorellPhoto:Getty

Thosearestrongwords,especiallycomingfromsomeonewhoweareledtobelieveisanunimpeachablesource.Butis
he?

Thenon-partisanMorellwascaughtmis-speakingtoCongressabouthisroleinsanitizingtheinfamousCIAtalking
pointspreparedforUSAmbassadorSusanRicetodeliverontheSundaytalkshowsaftertheBenghaziattacks.And
whenhewascaughtout,likeafaithfulsoldier,hefellonhissword.

Hereshowithappened:AfterSusanRicesoutlandishclaimsontheSundaytalkshowsthattheBenghaziattacksbegan
asaspontaneousprotestoverahatefulYouTubevideo,Congressbeganaskingwhereshehadgottenthatinformation.
Thisishowlawmakersdiscoveredthattheintelligencecommunityhaddraftedhertalkingpoints,withinputfromtheWhite
HouseandHillaryClintonsstaff.

EarlydraftsofthetalkingpointsincludedamentionofalQaeda.Butthatreferencewasremovedinthefinaldrafts.Sen.
LindsayGrahamexplainedtomewhathappenednext.

OnNov.27,2012,MorellandSusanRicecameintomyoffice,hetoldme.IaskedMorellwhochanged[thetalking
points].Hesaid,theFBIdeletedthereferencetoalQaedabecauseofanongoingcriminalinvestigation.SoIcalledthe
FBI.Theysaid,no,theydidntchangethetalkingpoints.Theywerefurious.

Apparently,thatwasanunderstatement:SomeoneataseniorlevelatFBIcalledtheCIAtoprotestdirectly.Graham
continuedthestory:At4p.m.thatday,CIAcalledmeandsaidMorellmis-spokeinhismeetingwithme,andthatCIA
deleted[thereferencetoalQaeda],buttheycouldntgiveareasonwhy.

Grahamthoughtthereasonwasobvious:IfthetruthhadbeenknownthatalQaedakilledfourAmericanssevenweeks
beforeanelection,itwouldhavebeenadifferentpoliticalstory.

RememberwhatObamaandhissurrogatesweresaying?Osamaisdead,GMisalive.Thatwastheircampaignmantra.

Infact,itwasMorellhimselfwhomadethosechanges.

MorellsubsequentlytestifiedbeforetheHouseSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,andeventuallybeforetheBenghazi
SelectCommittee,twistinghimselfintoapretzeltoexplainwhyheremovedanymentionofthealQaedainvolvementin
theattacks.

HeultimatelyclaimedhebelievednewsreportscallingtheBenghaziattacksaprotestgonewildweremorecrediblethan
repeatede-mailsandcablesfromhisownstationchiefinLibyainsistingtherehadneverbeenaprotest.

Itwasanadmissionofgrossincompetenceorpartisanship.ButthatwasthepartylineClintonwasputtingout.

Morellwasrewardedafterthe2012election.WhenheretiredfromCIA,MorelltookapositionwithBeaconGlobal
Strategies,acompanycofoundedbyAndrewShapiroandPhilippeReines,membersofHillaryClintonsinnercircleatthe
StateDepartment.

InhisTimesop-ed,MorellclaimsDonaldTrumpisanunwittingagentofRussiabecausehemakesfriendlyremarks
towardPutin.ButTrumphasnevertakenadimefromPutin.Aswenowknow,Clintonandherhusbandhaveboth
profitedhandsomelyfromtheirrelationstoRussianstate-ownedbanksandcorporationsandactuallyhelpedRussia
getitshandsonacompanywithrightstoafifthofUSuranium.DoesthatmakeherawittingagentofRussia?

Thisformerspookswillingnesstoskewerthetruthonbehalfofapoliticalpatronshouldsufficetomakeanythinking
personrejecthisjudgment.

AsforthetruthaboutHillary,well,weveseenhersellingpoliticalfavorstoforeigncountriesandcompanieswhile
secretaryofstatethroughtheClintonFoundation.AndlyingtothepublicincessantlyaboutBenghazi,here-mails,you
nameit.Justimaginewhatshelldoifelectedpresident.

KennethR.Timmermanslatestbook,Deception:theMakingoftheYouTubeVideoHillaryandObamaBlamedfor
Benghazi,wasreleasedtwoweeksagoandisalreadyinits4thprinting.

SentfrommyiPad
 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/25/201601:29:30PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: PeterPomerantsevreviewsAVeryExpensivePoisonbyLukeHardingLRB31March2016

PeterPomerantsev

AshelaydyingAlexanderLitvinenkosolvedhisownmurderandforesawthefuture.Aprofessionaldetectiveonhislast
case,withhimselfasthevictim,heworkedoutthathehadbeenpoisonedinthePineBaroftheMillenniumHotelin
Mayfair,byanotherformerKGBdetective,AndreiLugovoi.Hehadthoughttheywerepartners,investigatingthe
connectionsbetweenPutinsKremlin,organisedcrimeandmoneylaunderinginEuropebut,henowrealised,Lugovoiwas
stilltakingordersfromthepeopletheywereinvestigating.AsLitvinenkoshaircameoutinclumps,ashefoundit
increasinglyhardtoopenhismouthtotalk,ashebecameyellowandshrivelled,hecursedhimselfforlettinghisguard
down:hehadassumedhewassafeafterreceivingasylumandcitizenshipintheUK.Butsolvingthecrime,Litvinenko
understood,wasonlythebeginning.WouldtheBritishgovernmentriskunderminingitsfinancialinterestsbyinvestigating
hisdeathproperly?

OfcourseIunderstandtheWestwantstogetgasandoilfromRussia,hetoldinspectorsfromScotlandYardwho
interviewedhiminhospital,butoneshouldntbeinvolvedinpoliticalactivityifonedoesnthavepoliticalbeliefs.And
beliefscantbetradedforgasandoil.Becausewhenabusinessmanistradinghestradingwithhismoneybutwhena
politicianistradingheistradingwiththesovereigntyofhiscountryandthefutureofhischildren.Thetranscriptsof
Litvinenkosinterviewswerereleasedlastyearhewasclearlytryinghardtowinthepoliceovertohiscause.Hewas
goodatspeeches.Incasethereisfromthetopadministrativepressureforpoliticalreasons,hesaid,befirmbring
thiscasetotheend.ThemenfromScotlandYardwereimpressedbyhisfaithinthem:LastmonthIwasgrantedBritish
citizenshipandIverymuchlovethiscountry.PossiblyImaydie,butIwilldieasafreeperson,andmysonandwifeare
freepeople.AndBritainisagreatcountry.

Litvinenkodiedfourdayslater,on23November2006.SixhoursbeforeithappenedScotlandYardgotaphonecall
fromtheAtomicWeaponsEstablishmentatAldermaston.Theirtestsshowedhewasterriblycontaminatedwith
polonium,ametalfourhundredtimesmoreradioactivethanuraniumandwhichcanonlybemanufacturedinanuclear
plant.Ithadverynearlybeentheperfectassassination:poloniumisntpickedupbyGeigercountersanddoctorshad
followedmanyfalseleadsricin?thallium?intryingtoidentifythemysterypoison.Whenpoloniumwasfirstsuggested
byurinetestsitwasdismissedasananomalycausedbytheplasticcontainer.

Butnowthatpoloniumhadbeenconfirmeditwasacinchforinvestigators,dressedinradiation-proofsuits,tofollowthe
radioactivetrail,withequipmentcapableofdetectingalpharadiation,throughMayfair,Heathrow,andontheplane
LugovoihadflowninonfromMoscow.TheAvangardfacilityinSarovistheonlyplacethatcontinuestoproduce
poloniumintheamountsusedintheassassination.Youhavetobeastateorstateorganisationtogetholdofpoloniumin
[these]quantities,theBritishambassadortoRussiareported,astheUKsoughttoextraditeLugovoiandhissidekick,
DmitryKovtun.Moscowrefused,insteadmakingLugovoiaDumadeputyforthe(far-right)LiberalDemocraticParty
meaninghewasimmunefromprosecution.RussiaandtheUKexpelledafewofeachothersdiplomats.Theirsecret
servicesstoppedco-operating.GordonBrownrefusedallmeetingswithPutin.

InLondon,Litvinenkoswidow,Marina,wastoldbytheForeignOfficetosittightandwaitwhiletheUKtriedtofinda
waytoextraditethekillersthroughback-channelnegotiations.In2010shewasstillwaiting.WhenCameronbecame
primeminister,LukeHardingwritesinhisgrippingaccountoftheLitvinenkocase,hisforeignpolicyobjectivewasquite
simple:tosellstufftoforeigners.Londonsnewrolewastobefinancialcapitaloftheworld:thestrategyforeconomic
growthwastoattractotherpeoplesmoney.BritainstillsoughttheextraditionofLugovoiandKovtun,ofcourse.But,
Cameronindicated,thesebilateraldifferencescouldbenegotiatedaroundandshouldntpreventco-operationinother
areas,especiallytrade.CameronwasperfectlyawareofthenatureofPutinsregime.In2010WikiLeakscablesshowed
thataSpanishprosecutorhadtoldUSofficialsthatRussiawasavirtualmafiastate,withtheKremlincontrolling
organisedcrime,whichinturnexercisedinfluenceoverministersandseniorofficials.TheSpanishprosecutorshadpartly
basedtheirinvestigationonLitvinenkosresearchandhehadbeenduetogotoMadridtotestifyabouttheconnections
betweentheKremlinandtheTambovgang,whichspecialisesininteraliadrugs,armssmugglingandmoney
laundering.(Ina488-pagesubmissiontotheAudienciaNacionallastyear,theprosecutorspresentedevidencethata
leaderoftheTambovgang,GennadyPetrov,hadbeenashareholderinthe1990sinBankRossiya,alongwithseveral
closealliesofPutin.Afterhebecamepresident,thebankwasknownasPutinswallet.)MI6paidforsomeof
Litvinenkoswork:2000amonthfromanunidentifiedbankaccountappearsinhisaccountsamongthefamilyshopping
atSainsburys.

Cameron,however,haddecided,asHardingwrites,thatthelargeinfluxofRussianstoBritainwasgoodforbusiness
WealthyRussiansbuypropertyinLondonandtheHomeCounties,sendtheirchildrentoBritishprivateschools,andgo
shoppinginHarrods(andSelfridges).Increasingly,RussianscometotheUKtosettletheirlegaldisputes,commercialand
matrimonial.Allthisisaboontoheadmasters,divorcelawyers,estateagentsandpurveyorsofsushi.Theactualamount
of(official)RussianinvestmentintheUKisrelativelysmall,butRussianwealthisconcentratedineliteindustriesandhelps
sendthelargerstrategicmessagethatBritainisopenforbusinesswithanyone.Theofficialfiguresdontreflectthemoney
movedhereanonymouslythroughtheextensivenetworkofformercoloniesturnedoffshoretaxhavens:onitsowntheCity
ofLondonisneckandneckwithWallStreetasafinancialcentre,butifyouincludetheoffshorezonesitsestimatedthata
thirdofallinternationaldepositsandinvestmentsflowthroughBritainanditssatellites.Moreover,accordingtothe
FinancialConductAuthority,mostUKbanksdontenforceknow-your-customerrules:thefinancialcapitaloftheworld
doesntasktoomanyquestionsaboutwherethemoneycomesfrom.DeutscheBankhascalculatedthat$1.5billion
enterstheUKeachmonthwithoutbeingrecordedbyofficialstatistics,halfofitfromRussia.

Inthesummerof2012,CameronentertainedPutinatDowningStreet,andtheywatchedthejudotogetheratthe
Olympics.LaterthatyearBPmergedwiththestate-ownedRussiangiantRosnefttocreatetheworldslargestoil
company,nicknamedBritneft.BPisresponsibleforonesixthofdividendsinBritishpensionfundschemes.Fearingthe
Britishgovernmentwastryingtoburythecase,MarinaLitvinenkopushedforaninquestintoherhusbandsmurder.
RobertOwen,aHighCourtjudge,promisedanopenandfearlessinvestigation.In2013theforeignsecretary,William
Hague,madeanapplicationforpublicinterestimmunitywhichmeantthatthegovernmentsclassifiedfileson
LitvinenkowouldntbeavailabletotheinquestandthatOwensfreedomtoinvestigatewasseverelyrestricted.The
Britishgovernment,liketheRussiangovernment,isconspiringtogettheinquestcloseddowninexchangeforsubstantial
tradeinterestswhichweknowMrCameronispursuing,Litvinenkoscounsel,BenEmmerson,said.InMay2013
CameronflewtoSochifortalkswithPutinandagreedthatBritishintelligencewouldresumeco-operationwiththeFSB
forthefirsttimesinceLitvinenkosdeath.ChrisGrayling,thejusticesecretary,refusedtopayMarinaLitvinenkoslegal
costs.

OwenwrotetoTheresaMay,thehomesecretary,requestingapublicinquiry:thiswouldallowthechairmantoconsider
secretmaterialinclosedhearings,balancingthegovernmentssecurityconcernswiththeneedforopenjustice.May
rejectedOwensrequest.Sheofferedsixreasonsforherrefusal,includingpublicexpense.MarinaLitvinenkofiledaclaim
forjudicialreview,askingtheHighCourttore-examinethegovernmentsdecision.InFebruary2014,threeHighCourt
judgesruledinherfavour.TheydescribedMaysrefusalasirrationalandlegallyerroneousandrequestedthatshe
reconsider.

InMarch2014PutinannexedCrimea,breakingtheBudapestMemorandum,whichBritain,amongothers,hadsignedin
1994guaranteeingUkrainesterritorialintegrityinreturnforitsabandoningnuclearweapons.Agovernmentadviserwas
photographedwalkingintoNo.10withapieceofpaperstatingthattheUKshouldnotsupport,fornow,tradesanctions
orcloseLondonsfinancialcentretoRussians:ManyofthethemesthatfeaturedinLitvinenkosmurderwerehere
again,Hardingwrites,playedoutonabiggerandmoreterriblecanvas.

FivedaysaftertheMalaysiantouristflightwasshotdownineasternUkraine,theHomeOfficeannouncedthatitwould,
afterall,allowtheinquiryintotheLitvinenkomurder.IthadseemedthatMarinaLitvinenkowasonherwaytowinningher
campaignagainstthegovernmentanyway,butitshardnottoshakethefeelingthattheHomeOfficethrewinthetowel
becauserelationswithRussiahadgotsobadthatbusinessasusualwasnowaPRliability.On30JulytheEUissueda
seriesofsanctionsagainstoligarchsandbusinessesclosetoPutin,includingBankRossiya.Aftertenyearsofgovernment
fog-blowingtheLitvinenkoinvestigationwouldfinallybemadepublic,muchofitcentredontheareaofLondonthat
perhapsbestdisplaystheparadoxesofBritains21st-centuryroleasfinancialcapitaloftheworld:Mayfair,oneof
Londonswealthiestdistrictsandthesceneofthecrime.

WhereastheCityofLondonandCanaryWharfarefullofmultinationalbanksthatcouldpotentiallyrelocateanywhere,
MayfairsellssomethinguniquelyBritishtotheworld.InHanoverSquare,Hardingwrites,boysandgirlsinred
uniformsplaygamesattheendoftheschoolday,amongplanetreesandanexoticpalmfromtheCanaryIslands.Itsall
ratherEnglishpastoral.ThegirlssportstrawboatersNorthofthesquareyoufindGrosvenorStreetandarowof
fashionable18th-centuryGeorgiantownhouses.Thiswasoncetheabodeofearls,lords,admiralsandtheoddpoet
Thelocationradiatesprestige,reliability,trustworthiness.MayfairisalsohometoPutinsexiledopposition.Hanover
SquareisMikhailKhodorkovskysHQ,whereheplansanewRussiaforwhenPutinfalls.Untilhediedin2013Down
StreetwaswhereBorisBerezovskyplotted,orthreatenedtoplot,anti-Putinrevolutions.Berezovskyhadplayeda
significantroleinLitvinenkosfate.In1998Litvinenko,thenaninvestigatorintoorganisedcrimeattheFSB,hadbetrayed
thefirmwhenhewentpublicwithanFSBplottomurderBerezovsky,Russiasmostinfluentialoligarchatthetimeand
deputysecretaryoftheSecurityCouncil.TheinvestigationledtothesackingoftheFSBsdirector,NikolaiKovalyov.
PresidentYeltsinmadePutin,whohadBerezovskysbacking,thenewheadoftheagency.ButwhenLitvinenkoshowed
PutinhisresearchintolinksbetweentheFSBandorganisedcrimePutindismissedit:Litvinenkolaterbecameconvinced
thiswasbecausehewasinvolvedinthesameschemeshimself.In1999PutinfiredLitvinenko,tellingajournalistthat
FSBofficersshouldnotexposeinternalscandalstothepublic.Litvinenkowasarrestedforbeatingupasuspect,
acquittedandthenarrestedagaininthecourtroom,withinvestigatorsopenlytellinghiswifethathewasbeingpunishedfor
betrayingtheagency.HefledtoLondon,wherehewasgivenasylum.Berezovskynowinexilehimselfmadehimhis
securityadviserandpaidforhissontogotoaprivateschool.

Berezovsky,KhodorkovskyetalclaimtobepartofthesametraditionasAlexanderHerzen:politicalexileswhofound
shelterinBritain.Itsalegitimateclaiminonesense,sincebothBerezovskyandKhodorkovskyfacedpolitically
motivatedtrialsinRussia.ButtheyalsoshowuptheothersideofLondonsrole:itswayofluringbigmoneyintothecity.
BeforetheysawthepoliticallightorjustfelloutwithPutinbothBerezovskyandKhodorkovskymadetheirmoney
throughriggedprivatisationsandasset-stripping,profitsthatLondonwealthmanagers,rent-a-peersandPRmenwere
morethanhappytolegitimise.WhentheoligarchscompanieswereseizedinRussia,Londonwasdelightedtotake
moneyfromthosewhohadrippedthemoffinturn.(Rosneft,akaBritneft,forinstance,cameintobeingafterPutinsally
IgorSechinseizedKhodorkovskysYukos.)Mayfairhasbecomeattractive,Hardingwrites,tosuccessiveinfluxesofthe
internationalsuper-rich.Arabsrichfromoil,Greekshippingtycoons,Africandictators:allfindahomehere,washedinby
aglobaltideofcreditcrises,coupsandrecessions.Thoughhomeisoverstatingit.Manyofthehousesstandempty:
investments,bolt-holesormoney-launderingvehicles.Itsnotentirelyclearwhatmanyofthebusinessesbasedheredo.
Hedgefunds?CorporatePR?Wealthmanagement?
Onthedayofhispoisoning,1November2006,AlexanderLitvinenkoproceededdownOldBondStreet,withitsfashion
anddiamondboutiquesanditssalesassistantswhospeakRussian,ChineseandArabic.HeenteredBerkeleySquareat
thesouth-eastcorner,wheretodayyoufindtherestaurantSexyFish,alllava-colouredcouches,fountainsstreamingdown
thewindowsanda13-footFrankGehrycrocodileonthewall.SexyFishisthecreationofRichardCaring,mostfamous
fortheIvy,therestaurantinSohothatflauntsitsexclusivitybybeingasapparentlymodestanddownbeataspossible.That
worksfortheposhEnglish,butmodernMayfairmoneyhasanothersetoftastestobepanderedto.CrossingBerkeley
Square,passingtheBentleydealership,LitvinenkowoundintoGrosvenorSquare,long-timehometothevastUS
EmbassywithitsM16-totingsecurity,andsteppedthroughthedooroftheMillenniumHotel,wherein1815newsfirst
reachedthecabinetofWellingtonsvictoryatWaterloo.

ThekillerwaswearingclothesfromHarrods:adarkblueandorangecardigan,greyjeans,andawatchhelikedtopoint
outcost$50,000.LitvinenkohadbeenwithLugovoiontheshoppingtrip:WhydoyouneedthisHarrods?heaskedhis
futurekiller.WhenHardingmetLugovoiinMoscowyearslaterhefoundhewasanAnglophile:hehadboundcopiesof
ConanDoyleonhiswallhissonwenttoaBritishschoolinMoscowhisdaughterhadspentayearonanEnglishcourse
inCambridge.HeevenbroughthisfamilywithhimonthetriptomurderLitvinenko.Afterhehadslippedhimsome
polonium-lacedteainthePineBar,theOwenreportsuggests,Lugovoiintroducedhisvictimtohisson,whohadjust
returnedfromatriptoHamleys.AndthenthefamilyhurriedofftowatchtheArsenal-CSKAMoscowgameatthe
Emirates.

ThiswasLugovoiandKovtunsthirdattempttopoisonLitvinenko.Onaprevioustriptheyhadabortedthemission,
pouringthepoloniumdownthesinkoftheirParkLanehotel.Onanothertheyenjoyedanightonthetiles,takinga
rickshawridearoundSoho.Theywentonthepull(nottoosuccessfully)atHeyJoonJermynStreet,wheretheowner,
LordDaveWest,aformerbooze-cruisetycoonwhoboughthistitleoneBay,wouldsit(untilhisown,unrelatedmurder)
inapinksuitattheendofthebarchattingupRussiangirlsonFacebookandpersuadingthemtocomeovertoworkas
hostessesinhisMayfairalmost-brothel.

Maybetheassassinsneededtherelaxation:earlierthatdayLugovoihadalmostmanagedtopoisonLitvinenkointhe
officesofErinys,abusinessintelligenceoutfitonGrosvenorStreet.Businessintelligencecompaniesareeverywherein
Mayfair.Oftenrunby(?former)spooks,theyperformduediligenceonbusinessesfromemergingeconomiespotential
partnersforWesterncompaniesquiteinkeepingwithMayfairssplitidentity,other,moremarginalbusinessintelligence
companiescanalsobehiredtowritereportswhitewashingcorruptoligarchsandhelpeasetheirwayintoLondon.
LitvinenkoworkedregularlyonduediligencereportsaboutpotentialRussianpartners.Hewasathoroughbutobsessive
andsometimesdownrightconspiracy-mindeddetective:hebelievedRomanoProditobeaRussianassetandthatal-
ZarqawistimeincustodywiththeFSBinChechnyapointedtoRussianinvolvementwiththetrainingofal-Qaida
operatives.Buthehadalsowrittenhighlyprofessionalreportsincollaborationwithother,moredisciplinedauthors,most
recentlyadocumentreferredtointheOweninquirywhichshowedthatPutinsallyViktorIvanov,theheadofAeroflot
andtheFederalNarcoticsService,hadbeenassociatedwithColombiandrugscartelsinthe1990s.(Ivanovdenies
everything,thoughadmitsthathisdeputyhadregulardealingswiththeTambovgangsGennadyPetrov.)Accordingtoits
co-author,YuriShvets,thereportcostIvanovupto$15millioninkickbackswhentheWesternpartnerpulledout.

LitvinenkowantedLugovoitoworkwithhimandErinys,andhadsetupameetingwiththeoutfitsRussian-speaking
head,TimReilly,inanofficewithleatherchairsandanoakdiningtablecoveredinagreenbaizecloth.Lugovoiarrived
withshoppingbags[and]steeredtheconversationroundtotea.Hesuggestedtheyalldrinksome,jokingthatthe
Englishhadcupsofteaallthetime.Reillydeclinedandtoldthemhedjustdrunkwaterfromthecooler.Lugovoiwas
weirdlypersistent.Theykeptonsayingtomedontyouwantany,wontyouhaveany?Reillyrecalled.(Fora
momenttheLitvinenkomurderstorytopplesintoadarkfarceaboutEnglishness:thecultofteadeployedasamurder
strategybyforeignagentsagainstinvestigatorsworkingforHerMajestysGovernment.)Aftermakingtea,Reilly
disappearedofftotheloo,Hardingcontinues.TheforensicevidencesuggeststhateitherLugovoiorKovtunslippedit
intoLitvinenkoscupofteaorwaterForthenextthirtyminutes,theteaorglassofwatersatinfrontofhim,alittleto
hisleftaninvisiblenuclearmurderweapon.TheconversationwasofGazprom.LugovoiandKovtunmusthavebeen
barelylisteningforthem,theonlyquestionwas:wouldLitvinenkodrink?

Hedidnt,butwhennuclearscientistsexaminedtheErinystabletheyfounditwasheavingwithradioactive
contamination.ThepoloniumtrailranthroughthewholeofMayfair.ItwasonashishapipethatLugovoihadsmokedand
onadoorinthegentsatHeyJo.InLugovoishotelroomonParkLanetherewaspoloniumonthecarpetandona
telephonedirectoryinacupboard.IntheMillenniumHotelpoloniumwasamiasma,astrangecreepingfog.Itwasfound
insidethedishwasher,onthefloor,thetill,thehandleofacoffeestrainer.ThereweretracesonbottlesofMartiniandTia
Mariabehindthebar,theicecreamscoop,achoppingboardandthepianostool.Hardingdoesntovercookthe
metaphor,butMayfairandallitrepresentsisportrayedhereassomethingpotentially,maybeinherentlytoxic.Whendoes
asoftpoweraimedatattractinginvestmentstarttounderminerealpower?

Altogethertheinquirylookedat720locationswherepoloniumtraceswerefound,heardfrom62witnessesandread
through5000pagesofevidence.Appendix12notincludedinthepublishedreportcontainedtheevidencegiven
behindcloseddoorsundertheOfficialSecretsAct.ItpresumablyincludedevidencefromLitvinenkoshandleratMI6,
whomheusedtomeetinthecafatWaterstonesonPiccadilly(sincepurchasedbytheoligarchAlexanderMamut)there
wereprobablyinterceptsoftelephonechatterpickedupbytheNSAorGCHQ.Whatexactlytheevidencewaswewill
neverknow,butitwasenoughforOwentoconcludethatnotonlydidLugovoiandKovtunkillLitvinenkobuttherewasa
strongprobabilitythattheydidsoundertheFSBsdirectionandtheexecutionwasprobablyapprovedbyPutin.

Thesewerestrongerwordsthananyoneexpected.Imgobsmacked,saidRobertService,whohadbeentheinquirys
mainbackgroundwitnessonRussianhistoryandpolitics.Itshowstheautonomyofthejudicialprocessfrompolitics.
MarinaLitvinenkofeltvindicated.Itisunthinkablethattheprimeministerwoulddonothinginthefaceofthedamning
findings,shesaid.Shewaswrong.Thegovernmenthadknownthesecretevidenceallalongandithadnotstoppedthem
courtingPutin.InDavos,wherehewasattendingtheWorldEconomicForum,CameronexplainedthatwhileLitvinenkos
murderwasshockingitwasnecessarytokeepworkingwiththeKremlinbecauseweneedasolutiontotheSyrian
crisis.(Itsaquestionableandprobablydelusionalargument.TheUSisunafraidofimposingsanctionsonRussiaandin
anycaseBritainishardlyanimportantpowerinsuchglobalgames:MoscowtakesonlytheUSandChina,and
sometimesGermany,seriously.)MarinaLitvinenkoproposedtargetedsanctionsagainst,amongothers,Putin,theheadof
theFSB,theprosecutorgeneralandthechiefinvestigatorwhohadblockedScotlandYardsworkinRussia,aswellas
companiesinvolvedinproducingthepoison.Thegovernmentrefused,butLitvinenkosproposalispartofalarger
movementofpolicysuggestionsandcampaignsthatstrugglewiththeconsequencesofbeingthefinancialcapitalofthe
world.

AweekafterthefinalverdictItookpartinakleptocracytour:abusridearoundsomeofLondonsmostglitzy
addresses.Wedrovepastthe60millionpadneartheV&AbelongingtoDmytroFirtash(hehasalsoboughtaformer
tubestopnextdoorfor50million).Firtash,weweretold,istheUkrainianoligarchwhowasatthecentreofaseriesof
majorgasdealsbetweenRussiaandUkraine.Moscowallowedhimtobuygasatbelowmarketratesandhesolditon
high.TheprofitsfromthisandotherdealshelpedhimfinancethegovernmentofViktorYanukovych,whosekleptocratic
rulewasonlystoppedbywayofarevolutionuntilthat,inturn,wascounteredbytheRussianinvasion.Firtashsponsors
aUkrainianStudiesdepartmentatCambridgeandaBritish-UkraineSocietythatseetheRegisterofMembersInterests
paidforthecultureminister,JohnWhittingdale,tovisitUkraineandAustriaandprovidedthesecretariatfortheAll-
PartyParliamentaryGrouponUkraineFirtashhasbeenrewardedwithanhonourbytheDukeofEdinburgh.

ThetourproceededpasttheRussianEmbassyoffKensingtonParkGardens,Londonsmostexpensivestreet,which
smelledofmagnoliaandhoneysucklethoughspringhadntyetarrivedintherestofLondon.In2012theRussianembassy
gardenhostedtheinauguraleventforConservativeFriendsofRussia,agroupsetuptohelpBritish-Russiancultural
understandingandbusinessrelations.EmailsHardingsawfromSergeiNalobin,theRussiandiplomatliaisingwiththe
organisationandthesonofLitvinenkosformerbossattheFSB,showedthatMoscowsgoalswentbeyondmere
culturalunderstanding.TheKremlinwaskeentomutecriticismofRussiashumanrightsrecord[and]desperateto
stoptopofficialsfrombeingdeniedentrytotheUKaspartofaUS-styleMagnitskylist.TheMagnitskybill,whichis
supportedbyMPsfrombothsidesoftheCommonsbutnotbythegovernment,wouldliketheequivalentAmerican
law,whichwaspassedin2012preventcorruptRussianofficialswhoabusehumanrightsfromtravellingtoorinvesting
intheUK.(SergeiMagnitsky,forwhomthebillisnamed,wasaRussianlawyerwhowaskilledwhenheuncovereda
$230milliontaxfraudlaunderedthroughEurope,theUSandtheMiddleEast.Oneofthemainwhistleblowers,
AlexanderPerepilichny,setuphisfirstmeetingwithMagnitskyscolleaguesatthePoloBarinMayfair,anddiedin2012
whilejoggingnearhismansioninSurrey.Thedeathisstillbeinginvestigatedaftertestsconductedlastyearfoundtracesof
gelsemium,apoisonousplantpopularamongRussianandChineseassassins,inPerepilichnyssystem.)Conservative
FriendsofRussiawaschairedbySirMalcolmRifkindanditscelebrityspeakerwhenitwasrelaunchedasWestminster
RussiaForumwasJackStraw.ThetwoMPswerelatercaughtoncamerabyChannel4sDispatchesofferingtouse
theirpoliticalconnectionsonbehalfofafictitiousChinesecompanyfor5000aday.Rifkindsaidhecouldprovideaccess
toeveryBritishambassadorintheworld.StrawboastedthathehadusedcharmandmenacewiththeUkrainianprime
ministertochangelawsonbehalfofacommodityfirmthatpayshim60,000ayear.NotsomuchLeCarrasCash&
Carry.NalobinhassincebeenexpelledfromtheUK.

ThetourbusheadeduptoHighgateandLondonslargestresidentialhouse,Witanhurst,whichsquatsabovethecityand
whoserealownerwashiddenbehinddozensofshellcompaniesuntilareportintheNewYorkerrevealeditasbelonging
toaRussiansenatorwhoisviewedassogenerallyinsignificantthatnoonecouldatfirstbelievehewastherealowner.
Morethan100,000propertiesintheUKareownedbyoffshorecompanies,36,000oftheminLondon,withthe
beneficiaryownersnotdisclosedinmorethanathirdofcasesestimatesofthetotalvalueoftheseassetsvaryfrom120
billionto400billion.Arecentdocumentary,FromRussiawithCash,showedthatanumberofLondonseliteestate
agentswerehappytotakemoneyfromandarrangelegalassistanceforaRussianministerwhotoldthemopenlythathe
hadappropriatedthemoneyfromRussiashealthbudget.

Thekleptocracytourincludedtalksbyarangeofspeakers.TherewereRussiandissidentswhowantedtouncoverthe
moneystolenbyPutinalliesinthehopeofdiscreditingtheregimetherewereactivistswhosawclosingdownoffshoretax
havensasasteptowardsenforcingtaxjusticeandstoppingtheglobalflowofdirtymoneytherewasaneconomicliberal
whobelievedthatifglobalisationwastoworkithadtomakeadistinctionbetweencronyandgenuinelycompetitive
businessestherewerecampaignersforbetterenforcementofbeneficiaryownershiplawstherewereinvestigative
journalistslookingtobustMPsonthetake.Thetourwasco-sponsoredbytheHudsonInstitute,whichdescribesitselfas
acentre-rightthinktank,basedinWashingtonDC.HudsonhasrecentlylauncheditsKleptocracyInitiative,todesign
policiesaimedatlimitingtheabilityofhostileforeignactorstoabscondwithnationalassetsandusethoseassetsagainst
boththeirowncitizensandtheUnitedStatesanditsallies.UntilrecentlytheargumentmadeinbothDCandWhitehall
wasthateconomicintegrationbetweennationswouldhelpguaranteesecurity.Litvinenkohadalwaysknownthiswas
naive:whenyoulegitimisecorruptandcriminalregimes,andbecomedependentonthem,youembolden,nottame,their
aggressiveforeignpolicy.

ThetourbustookusupParkLanetowardsSpeakersCorner.LitvinenkolovedthisbitofLondonandwouldtakehis
son,Anatoly,here.Anatolywas12whenhisfatherdiedheisnowaveryEnglish-soundingundergraduate:Mydadloved
England,hetoldtheinquiry.Hefeltextremelysafehere.HealsotoldhissonthatyoucouldtrustBritishjustice.You
couldstanduponaboxandsayanything.

SentfrommyiPad
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/21/201510:37:38AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: SeymourM.HershMilitarytoMilitary:USintelligencesharingintheSyrianwarLRB7January2016

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n01/seymour-m-hersh/military-to-military

SeymourM.HershonUSintelligencesharingin
theSyrianwar
BarackObamasrepeatedinsistencethatBasharal-Assadmustleaveofficeandthattherearemoderaterebel
groupsinSyriacapableofdefeatinghimhasinrecentyearsprovokedquietdissent,andevenovertopposition,
amongsomeofthemostseniorofficersonthePentagonsJointStaff.Theircriticismhasfocusedonwhattheyseeas
theadministrationsfixationonAssadsprimaryally,VladimirPutin.Intheirview,ObamaiscaptivetoColdWar
thinkingaboutRussiaandChina,andhasntadjustedhisstanceonSyriatothefactbothcountriesshare
WashingtonsanxietyaboutthespreadofterrorisminandbeyondSyrialikeWashington,theybelievethatIslamic
Statemustbestopped.

Themilitarysresistancedatesbacktothesummerof2013,whenahighlyclassifiedassessment,puttogetherbythe
DefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA)andtheJointChiefsofStaff,thenledbyGeneralMartinDempsey,forecastthat
thefalloftheAssadregimewouldleadtochaosand,potentially,toSyriastakeoverbyjihadiextremists,muchas
wasthenhappeninginLibya.AformersenioradvisertotheJointChiefstoldmethatthedocumentwasanall-
sourceappraisal,drawingoninformationfromsignals,satelliteandhumanintelligence,andtookadimviewofthe
Obamaadministrationsinsistenceoncontinuingtofinanceandarmtheso-calledmoderaterebelgroups.Bythen,the
CIAhadbeenconspiringformorethanayearwithalliesintheUK,SaudiArabiaandQatartoshipgunsandgoods
tobeusedfortheoverthrowofAssadfromLibya,viaTurkey,intoSyria.Thenewintelligenceestimatesingled
outTurkeyasamajorimpedimenttoObamasSyriapolicy.Thedocumentshowed,theadvisersaid,thatwhatwas
startedasacovertUSprogrammetoarmandsupportthemoderaterebelsfightingAssadhadbeenco-optedby
Turkey,andhadmorphedintoanacross-the-boardtechnical,armsandlogisticalprogrammeforalloftheopposition,
includingJabhatal-NusraandIslamicState.Theso-calledmoderateshadevaporatedandtheFreeSyrianArmywas
arumpgroupstationedatanairbaseinTurkey.Theassessmentwasbleak:therewasnoviablemoderate
oppositiontoAssad,andtheUSwasarmingextremists.

LieutenantGeneralMichaelFlynn,directoroftheDIAbetween2012and2014,confirmedthathisagencyhadsenta
constantstreamofclassifiedwarningstothecivilianleadershipaboutthedireconsequencesoftopplingAssad.The
jihadists,hesaid,wereincontroloftheopposition.Turkeywasntdoingenoughtostopthesmugglingofforeign
fightersandweaponsacrosstheborder.IftheAmericanpublicsawtheintelligencewewereproducingdaily,atthe
mostsensitivelevel,theywouldgoballistic,Flynntoldme.WeunderstoodIsisslong-termstrategyandits
campaignplans,andwealsodiscussedthefactthatTurkeywaslookingtheotherwaywhenitcametothegrowthof
theIslamicStateinsideSyria.TheDIAsreporting,hesaid,gotenormouspushbackfromtheObama
administration.Ifeltthattheydidnotwanttohearthetruth.

OurpolicyofarmingtheoppositiontoAssadwasunsuccessfulandactuallyhavinganegativeimpact,theformer
JCSadvisersaid.TheJointChiefsbelievedthatAssadshouldnotbereplacedbyfundamentalists.The
administrationspolicywascontradictory.TheywantedAssadtogobuttheoppositionwasdominatedbyextremists.
Sowhowasgoingtoreplacehim?TosayAssadsgottogoisfine,butifyoufollowthatthroughthereforeanyone
isbetter.ItstheanybodyelseisbetterissuethattheJCShadwithObamaspolicy.TheJointChiefsfeltthata
directchallengetoObamaspolicywouldhavehadazerochanceofsuccess.Sointheautumnof2013they
decidedtotakestepsagainsttheextremistswithoutgoingthroughpoliticalchannels,byprovidingUSintelligenceto
themilitariesofothernations,ontheunderstandingthatitwouldbepassedontotheSyrianarmyandusedagainstthe
commonenemy,Jabhatal-NusraandIslamicState.
Germany,IsraelandRussiawereincontactwiththeSyrianarmy,andabletoexercisesomeinfluenceoverAssads
decisionsitwasthroughthemthatUSintelligencewouldbeshared.Eachhaditsreasonsforco-operatingwith
Assad:GermanyfearedwhatmighthappenamongitsownpopulationofsixmillionMuslimsifIslamicState
expandedIsraelwasconcernedwithbordersecurityRussiahadanallianceofverylongstandingwithSyria,and
wasworriedbythethreattoitsonlynavalbaseontheMediterranean,atTartus.Wewerentintentondeviatingfrom
Obamasstatedpolicies,theadvisersaid.Butsharingourassessmentsviathemilitary-to-militaryrelationshipswith
othercountriescouldproveproductive.ItwasclearthatAssadneededbettertacticalintelligenceandoperational
advice.TheJCSconcludedthatifthoseneedsweremet,theoverallfightagainstIslamistterrorismwouldbe
enhanced.Obamadidntknow,butObamadoesntknowwhattheJCSdoesineverycircumstanceandthatstrue
ofallpresidents.

OncetheflowofUSintelligencebegan,Germany,IsraelandRussiastartedpassingoninformationaboutthe
whereaboutsandintentofradicaljihadistgroupstotheSyrianarmyinreturn,Syriaprovidedinformationaboutits
owncapabilitiesandintentions.TherewasnodirectcontactbetweentheUSandtheSyrianmilitaryinstead,the
advisersaid,weprovidedtheinformationincludinglong-rangeanalysesonSyriasfutureputtogetherby
contractorsoroneofourwarcollegesandthesecountriescoulddowithitwhattheychose,includingsharingit
withAssad.WeweresayingtotheGermansandtheothers:Heressomeinformationthatsprettyinterestingandour
interestismutual.Endofconversation.TheJCScouldconcludethatsomethingbeneficialwouldarisefromitbutit
wasamilitarytomilitarything,andnotsomesortofasinisterJointChiefsplottogoaroundObamaandsupport
Assad.Itwasalotclevererthanthat.IfAssadremainsinpower,itwillnotbebecausewedidit.Itsbecausehewas
smartenoughtousetheintelligenceandsoundtacticaladviceweprovidedtoothers.

ThepublichistoryofrelationsbetweentheUSandSyriaoverthepastfewdecadeshasbeenoneofenmity.Assad
condemnedthe9/11attacks,butopposedtheIraqWar.GeorgeW.BushrepeatedlylinkedSyriatothethree
membersofhisaxisofevilIraq,IranandNorthKoreathroughouthispresidency.StateDepartmentcables
madepublicbyWikiLeaksshowthattheBushadministrationtriedtodestabiliseSyriaandthattheseefforts
continuedintotheObamayears.InDecember2006,WilliamRoebuck,theninchargeoftheUSembassyin
Damascus,filedananalysisofthevulnerabilitiesoftheAssadgovernmentandlistedmethodsthatwillimprovethe
likelihoodofopportunitiesfordestabilisation.HerecommendedthatWashingtonworkwithSaudiArabiaandEgypt
toincreasesectariantensionandfocusonpublicisingSyrianeffortsagainstextremistgroupsdissidentKurdsand
radicalSunnifactionsinawaythatsuggestsweakness,signsofinstability,anduncontrolledblowbackandthat
theisolationofSyriashouldbeencouragedthroughUSsupportoftheNationalSalvationFront,ledbyAbdulHalim
Khaddam,aformerSyrianvicepresidentwhosegovernment-in-exileinRiyadhwassponsoredbytheSaudisandthe
MuslimBrotherhood.Another2006cableshowedthattheembassyhadspent$5millionfinancingdissidentswhoran
asindependentcandidatesforthePeoplesAssemblythepaymentswerekeptupevenafteritbecameclearthat
Syrianintelligenceknewwhatwasgoingon.A2010cablewarnedthatfundingforaLondon-basedtelevision
networkrunbyaSyrianoppositiongroupwouldbeviewedbytheSyriangovernmentasacovertandhostile
gesturetowardtheregime.

Butthereisalsoaparallelhistoryofshadowyco-operationbetweenSyriaandtheUSduringthesameperiod.The
twocountriescollaboratedagainstal-Qaida,theircommonenemy.AlongtimeconsultanttoAmericasintelligence
communitysaidthat,after9/11,Basharwas,foryears,extremelyhelpfultouswhile,inmyview,wewerechurlishin
return,andclumsyinouruseofthegoldhegaveus.Thatquietco-operationcontinuedamongsomeelements,even
afterthe[Bushadministrations]decisiontovilifyhim.In2002AssadauthorisedSyrianintelligencetoturnover
hundredsofinternalfilesontheactivitiesoftheMuslimBrotherhoodinSyriaandGermany.Laterthatyear,Syrian
intelligencefoiledanattackbyal-QaidaontheheadquartersoftheUSNavysFifthFleetinBahrain,andAssad
agreedtoprovidetheCIAwiththenameofavitalal-Qaidainformant.Inviolationofthisagreement,theCIA
contactedtheinformantdirectlyherejectedtheapproach,andbrokeoffrelationswithhisSyrianhandlers.Assad
alsosecretlyturnedovertotheUSrelativesofSaddamHusseinwhohadsoughtrefugeinSyria,andlikeAmericas
alliesinJordan,Egypt,ThailandandelsewheretorturedsuspectedterroristsfortheCIAinaDamascusprison.

Itwasthishistoryofco-operationthatmadeitseempossiblein2013thatDamascuswouldagreetothenewindirect
intelligence-sharingarrangementwiththeUS.TheJointChiefsletitbeknownthatinreturntheUSwouldrequirefour
things:AssadmustrestrainHizbullahfromattackingIsraelhemustrenewthestallednegotiationswithIsraeltoreach
asettlementontheGolanHeightshemustagreetoacceptRussianandotheroutsidemilitaryadvisersandhemust
committoholdingopenelectionsafterthewarwithawiderangeoffactionsincluded.Wehadpositivefeedback
fromtheIsraelis,whowerewillingtoentertaintheidea,buttheyneededtoknowwhatthereactionwouldbefrom
IranandSyria,theJCSadvisertoldme.TheSyrianstoldusthatAssadwouldnotmakeadecisionunilaterallyhe
neededtohavesupportfromhismilitaryandAlawiteallies.AssadsworrywasthatIsraelwouldsayyesandthennot
upholditsendofthebargain.AsenioradvisertotheKremlinonMiddleEastaffairstoldmethatinlate2012,after
sufferingaseriesofbattlefieldsetbacksandmilitarydefections,AssadhadapproachedIsraelviaacontactin
MoscowandofferedtoreopenthetalksontheGolanHeights.TheIsraelishadrejectedtheoffer.Theysaid,
Assadisfinished,theRussianofficialtoldme.Hesclosetotheend.HesaidtheTurkshadtoldMoscowthe
samething.Bymid-2013,however,theSyriansbelievedtheworstwasbehindthem,andwantedassurancesthatthe
Americansandotherswereseriousabouttheiroffersofhelp.

Intheearlystagesofthetalks,theadvisersaid,theJointChiefstriedtoestablishwhatAssadneededasasignof
theirgoodintentions.TheanswerwassentthroughoneofAssadsfriends:BringhimtheheadofPrinceBandar.
TheJointChiefsdidnotoblige.BandarbinSultanhadservedSaudiArabiafordecadesinintelligenceandnational
securityaffairs,andspentmorethantwentyyearsasambassadorinWashington.Inrecentyears,hehasbeenknown
asanadvocateforAssadsremovalfromofficebyanymeans.Reportedlyinpoorhealth,heresignedlastyearas
directoroftheSaudiNationalSecurityCouncil,butSaudiArabiacontinuestobeamajorprovideroffundstothe
Syrianopposition,estimatedbyUSintelligencelastyearat$700million.

InJuly2013,theJointChiefsfoundamoredirectwayofdemonstratingtoAssadhowserioustheywereabout
helpinghim.BythentheCIA-sponsoredsecretflowofarmsfromLibyatotheSyrianopposition,viaTurkey,had
beenunderwayformorethanayear(itstartedsometimeafterGaddafisdeathon20October2011).The
operationwaslargelyrunoutofacovertCIAannexinBenghazi,withStateDepartmentacquiescence.On11
September2012theUSambassadortoLibya,ChristopherStevens,waskilledduringananti-American
demonstrationthatledtotheburningdownoftheUSconsulateinBenghazireportersfortheWashingtonPost
foundcopiesoftheambassadorsscheduleinthebuildingsruins.Itshowedthaton10SeptemberStevenshadmet
withthechiefoftheCIAsannexoperation.Thenextday,shortlybeforehedied,hemetarepresentativefromAl-
MarfaShippingandMaritimeServices,aTripoli-basedcompanywhich,theJCSadvisersaid,wasknownbythe
JointStafftobehandlingtheweaponsshipments.

Bythelatesummerof2013,theDIAsassessmenthadbeencirculatedwidely,butalthoughmanyintheAmerican
intelligencecommunitywereawarethattheSyrianoppositionwasdominatedbyextremiststheCIA-sponsored
weaponskeptcoming,presentingacontinuingproblemforAssadsarmy.Gaddafisstockpilehadcreatedan
internationalarmsbazaar,thoughpriceswerehigh.Therewasnowaytostopthearmsshipmentsthathadbeen
authorisedbythepresident,theJCSadvisersaid.Thesolutioninvolvedanappealtothepocketbook.TheCIAwas
approachedbyarepresentativefromtheJointChiefswithasuggestion:therewerefarlesscostlyweaponsavailable
inTurkisharsenalsthatcouldreachtheSyrianrebelswithindays,andwithoutaboatride.ButitwasntonlytheCIA
thatbenefited.WeworkedwithTurkswetrustedwhowerenotloyaltoErdoan,theadvisersaid,andgotthemto
shipthejihadistsinSyriaalltheobsoleteweaponsinthearsenal,includingM1carbinesthathadntbeenseensince
theKoreanWarandlotsofSovietarms.ItwasamessageAssadcouldunderstand:Wehavethepowertodiminish
apresidentialpolicyinitstracks.

TheflowofUSintelligencetotheSyrianarmy,andthedowngradingofthequalityofthearmsbeingsuppliedtothe
rebels,cameatacriticaljuncture.TheSyrianarmyhadsufferedheavylossesinthespringof2013infightingagainst
Jabhatal-NusraandotherextremistgroupsasitfailedtoholdtheprovincialcapitalofRaqqa.SporadicSyrianarmy
andair-forceraidscontinuedintheareaformonths,withlittlesuccess,untilitwasdecidedtowithdrawfromRaqqa
andotherhardtodefend,lightlypopulatedareasinthenorthandwestandfocusinsteadonconsolidatingthe
governmentsholdonDamascusandtheheavilypopulatedareaslinkingthecapitaltoLatakiainthenorth-east.But
asthearmygainedinstrengthwiththeJointChiefssupport,SaudiArabia,QatarandTurkeyescalatedtheirfinancing
andarmingofJabhatal-NusraandIslamicState,whichbytheendof2013hadmadeenormousgainsonbothsides
oftheSyria/Iraqborder.Theremainingnon-fundamentalistrebelsfoundthemselvesfightingandlosingpitched
battlesagainsttheextremists.InJanuary2014,IStookcompletecontrolofRaqqaandthetribalareasarounditfrom
al-Nusraandestablishedthecityasitsbase.Assadstillcontrolled80percentoftheSyrianpopulation,buthehad
lostavastamountofterritory.

CIAeffortstotrainthemoderaterebelforceswerealsofailingbadly.TheCIAstrainingcampwasinJordanand
wascontrolledbyaSyriantribalgroup,theJCSadvisersaid.Therewasasuspicionthatsomeofthosewhosigned
upfortrainingwereactuallySyrianarmyregularsminustheiruniforms.Thishadhappenedbefore,attheheightofthe
Iraqiwar,whenhundredsofShiamilitiamembersshowedupatAmericantrainingcampsfornewuniforms,weapons
andafewdaysoftraining,andthendisappearedintothedesert.Aseparatetrainingprogramme,setupbythe
PentagoninTurkey,farednobetter.ThePentagonacknowledgedinSeptemberthatonlyfourorfiveofitsrecruits
werestillbattlingIslamicStateafewdayslater70ofthemdefectedtoJabhatal-Nusraimmediatelyaftercrossing
theborderintoSyria.

InJanuary2014,despairingatthelackofprogress,JohnBrennan,thedirectoroftheCIA,summonedAmericanand
SunniArabintelligencechiefsfromthroughouttheMiddleEasttoasecretmeetinginWashington,withtheaimof
persuadingSaudiArabiatostopsupportingextremistfightersinSyria.TheSaudistoldustheywerehappytolisten,
theJCSadvisersaid,soeveryonesataroundinWashingtontohearBrennantellthemthattheyhadtogetonboard
withtheso-calledmoderates.Hismessagewasthatifeveryoneintheregionstoppedsupportingal-NusraandIsis
theirammunitionandweaponswoulddryup,andthemoderateswouldwinout.Brennansmessagewasignoredby
theSaudis,theadvisersaid,whowentbackhomeandincreasedtheireffortswiththeextremistsandaskedusfor
moretechnicalsupport.AndwesayOK,andsoitturnsoutthatweendupreinforcingtheextremists.

ButtheSaudiswerefarfromtheonlyproblem:Americanintelligencehadaccumulatedinterceptandhuman
intelligencedemonstratingthattheErdoangovernmenthadbeensupportingJabhatal-Nusraforyears,andwasnow
doingthesameforIslamicState.WecanhandletheSaudis,theadvisersaid.WecanhandletheMuslim
Brotherhood.YoucanarguethatthewholebalanceintheMiddleEastisbasedonaformofmutuallyassured
destructionbetweenIsraelandtherestoftheMiddleEast,andTurkeycandisruptthebalancewhichisErdoans
dream.WetoldhimwewantedhimtoshutdownthepipelineofforeignjihadistsflowingintoTurkey.Butheis
dreamingbigofrestoringtheOttomanEmpireandhedidnotrealisetheextenttowhichhecouldbesuccessfulin
this.

OneoftheconstantsinUSaffairssincethefalloftheSovietUnionhasbeenamilitary-to-militaryrelationshipwith
Russia.After1991theUSspentbillionsofdollarstohelpRussiasecureitsnuclearweaponscomplex,includinga
highlysecretjointoperationtoremoveweapons-gradeuraniumfromunsecuredstoragedepotsinKazakhstan.Joint
programmestomonitorthesecurityofweapons-gradematerialscontinuedforthenexttwodecades.Duringthe
AmericanwaronAfghanistan,RussiaprovidedoverflightrightsforUScargocarriersandtankers,aswellasaccess
fortheflowofweapons,ammunition,foodandwatertheUSwarmachineneededdaily.Russiasmilitaryprovided
intelligenceonOsamabinLadenswhereaboutsandhelpedtheUSnegotiaterightstouseanairbaseinKyrgyzstan.
TheJointChiefshavebeenincommunicationwiththeirRussiancounterpartsthroughouttheSyrianwar,andtheties
betweenthetwomilitariesstartatthetop.InAugust,afewweeksbeforehisretirementaschairmanoftheJoint
Chiefs,DempseymadeafarewellvisittotheheadquartersoftheIrishDefenceForcesinDublinandtoldhisaudience
therethathehadmadeapointwhileinofficetokeepintouchwiththechiefoftheRussianGeneralStaff,General
ValeryGerasimov.Iveactuallysuggestedtohimthatwenotendourcareersaswebeganthem,Dempseysaid
oneatankcommanderinWestGermany,theotherintheeast.
WhenitcomestotacklingIslamicState,RussiaandtheUShavemuchtooffereachother.ManyintheISleadership
andrankandfilefoughtformorethanadecadeagainstRussiainthetwoChechenwarsthatbeganin1994,andthe
PutingovernmentisheavilyinvestedincombatingIslamistterrorism.RussiaknowstheIsisleadership,theJCS
advisersaid,andhasinsightsintoitsoperationaltechniques,andhasmuchintelligencetoshare.Inreturn,hesaid,
wevegotexcellenttrainerswithyearsofexperienceintrainingforeignfightersexperiencethatRussiadoesnot
have.TheadviserwouldnotdiscusswhatAmericanintelligenceisalsobelievedtohave:anabilitytoobtaintargeting
data,oftenbypayinghugesumsofcash,fromsourceswithinrebelmilitias.

AformerWhiteHouseadviseronRussianaffairstoldmethatbefore9/11Putinusedtosaytous:Wehavethe
samenightmaresaboutdifferentplaces.HewasreferringtohisproblemswiththecaliphateinChechnyaandour
earlyissueswithal-Qaida.Thesedays,aftertheMetrojetbombingoverSinaiandthemassacresinParisand
elsewhere,itshardtoavoidtheconclusionthatweactuallyhavethesamenightmaresaboutthesameplaces.

YettheObamaadministrationcontinuestocondemnRussiaforitssupportofAssad.Aretiredseniordiplomatwho
servedattheUSembassyinMoscowexpressedsympathyforObamasdilemmaastheleaderoftheWestern
coalitionopposedtoRussiasaggressionagainstUkraine:UkraineisaseriousissueandObamahasbeenhandlingit
firmlywithsanctions.Butourpolicyvis--visRussiaistoooftenunfocused.ButitsnotaboutusinSyria.Itsabout
makingsureBashardoesnotlose.TherealityisthatPutindoesnotwanttoseethechaosinSyriaspreadtoJordan
orLebanon,asithastoIraq,andhedoesnotwanttoseeSyriaendupinthehandsofIsis.Themost
counterproductivethingObamahasdone,andithashurtoureffortstoendthefightingalot,wastosay:Assadmust
goasapremisefornegotiation.HealsoechoedaviewheldbysomeinthePentagonwhenhealludedtoa
collateralfactorbehindRussiasdecisiontolaunchairstrikesinsupportoftheSyrianarmyon30September:Putins
desiretopreventAssadfromsufferingthesamefateasGaddafi.HehadbeentoldthatPutinhadwatchedavideoof
Gaddafissavagedeaththreetimes,avideothatshowshimbeingsodomisedwithabayonet.TheJCSadviseralso
toldmeofaUSintelligenceassessmentwhichconcludedthatPutinhadbeenappalledbyGaddafisfate:Putin
blamedhimselfforlettingGaddafigo,fornotplayingastrongrolebehindthescenesattheUNwhentheWestern
coalitionwaslobbyingtobeallowedtoundertaketheairstrikesthatdestroyedtheregime.Putinbelievedthatunless
hegotengagedBasharwouldsufferthesamefatemutilatedandhedseethedestructionofhisalliesinSyria.

Inaspeechon22November,ObamadeclaredthattheprincipaltargetsoftheRussianairstrikeshavebeenthe
moderateopposition.ItsalinethattheadministrationalongwithmostofthemainstreamAmericanmediahas
rarelystrayedfrom.TheRussiansinsistthattheyaretargetingallrebelgroupsthatthreatenSyriasstabilityincluding
IslamicState.TheKremlinadviserontheMiddleEastexplainedinaninterviewthatthefirstroundofRussian
airstrikeswasaimedatbolsteringsecurityaroundaRussianairbaseinLatakia,anAlawitestronghold.Thestrategic
goal,hesaid,hasbeentoestablishajihadist-freecorridorfromDamascustoLatakiaandtheRussiannavalbaseat
Tartusandthentoshiftthefocusofbombinggraduallytothesouthandeast,withagreaterconcentrationofbombing
missionsoverIS-heldterritory.RussianstrikesonIStargetsinandnearRaqqawerereportedasearlyasthe
beginningofOctoberinNovembertherewerefurtherstrikesonISpositionsnearthehistoriccityofPalmyraandin
Idlibprovince,abitterlycontestedstrongholdontheTurkishborder.

RussianincursionsintoTurkishairspacebegansoonafterPutinauthorisedthebombings,andtheRussianairforce
deployedelectronicjammingsystemsthatinterferedwithTurkishradar.ThemessagebeingsenttotheTurkishair
force,theJCSadvisersaid,was:Weregoingtoflyourfighterplaneswherewewantandwhenwewantandjam
yourradar.Donotfuckwithus.PutinwaslettingtheTurksknowwhattheywereupagainst.Russiasaggressionled
toTurkishcomplaintsandRussiandenials,alongwithmoreaggressiveborderpatrollingbytheTurkishairforce.
Therewerenosignificantincidentsuntil24November,whentwoTurkishF-16fighters,apparentlyactingundermore
aggressiverulesofengagement,shotdownaRussianSu-24MjetthathadcrossedintoTurkishairspacefornomore
than17seconds.Inthedaysafterthefighterwasshotdown,ObamaexpressedsupportforErdoan,andafterthey
metinprivateon1Decemberhetoldapressconferencethathisadministrationremainedverymuchcommittedto
Turkeyssecurityanditssovereignty.HesaidthataslongasRussiaremainedalliedwithAssad,alotofRussian
resourcesarestillgoingtobetargetedatoppositiongroupsthatwesupportSoIdontthinkweshouldbe
underanyillusionsthatsomehowRussiastartshittingonlyIsiltargets.Thatsnothappeningnow.Itwasnever
happening.Itsnotgoingtobehappeninginthenextseveralweeks.

TheKremlinadviserontheMiddleEast,liketheJointChiefsandtheDIA,dismissesthemoderateswhohave
Obamassupport,seeingthemasextremistIslamistgroupsthatfightalongsideJabhatal-NusraandIS(Theresno
needtoplaywithwordsandsplitterroristsintomoderateandnotmoderate,Putinsaidinaspeechon22October).
TheAmericangeneralsseethemasexhaustedmilitiasthathavebeenforcedtomakeanaccommodationwithJabhat
al-NusraorISinordertosurvive.Attheendof2014,JrgenTodenhfer,aGermanjournalistwhowasallowedto
spendtendaystouringIS-heldterritoryinIraqandSyria,toldCNNthattheISleadershiparealllaughingaboutthe
FreeSyrianArmy.Theydonttakethemforserious.Theysay:ThebestarmssellerswehavearetheFSA.Ifthey
getagoodweapon,theysellittous.Theydidnttakethemforserious.TheytakeforseriousAssad.Theytakefor
serious,ofcourse,thebombs.Buttheyfearnothing,andFSAdoesntplayarole.

Putinsbombingcampaignprovokedaseriesofanti-RussiaarticlesintheAmericanpress.On25October,theNew
YorkTimesreported,citingObamaadministrationofficials,thatRussiansubmarinesandspyshipswereaggressively
operatingneartheunderseacablesthatcarrymuchoftheworldsinternettrafficalthough,asthearticlewentonto
acknowledge,therewasnoevidenceyetofanyRussianattemptactuallytointerferewiththattraffic.Tendays
earliertheTimespublishedasummaryofRussianintrusionsintoitsformerSovietsatelliterepublics,anddescribed
theRussianbombinginSyriaasbeinginsomerespectsareturntotheambitiousmilitarymovesoftheSovietpast.
ThereportdidnotnotethattheAssadadministrationhadinvitedRussiatointervene,nordiditmentiontheUS
bombingraidsinsideSyriathathadbeenunderwaysincethepreviousSeptember,withoutSyriasapproval.An
Octoberop-edinthesamepaperbyMichaelMcFaul,ObamasambassadortoRussiabetween2012and2014,
declaredthattheRussianaircampaignwasattackingeveryoneexcepttheIslamicState.Theanti-Russiastoriesdid
notabateaftertheMetrojetdisaster,forwhichIslamicStateclaimedcredit.FewintheUSgovernmentandmedia
questionedwhyISwouldtargetaRussianairliner,alongwithits224passengersandcrew,ifMoscowsairforcewas
attackingonlytheSyrianmoderates.

Economicsanctions,meanwhile,arestillineffectagainstRussiaforwhatalargenumberofAmericansconsider
PutinswarcrimesinUkraine,asareUSTreasuryDepartmentsanctionsagainstSyriaandagainstthoseAmericans
whodobusinessthere.TheNewYorkTimes,inareportonsanctionsinlateNovember,revivedanoldand
groundlessassertion,sayingthattheTreasurysactionsemphasiseanargumentthattheadministrationhas
increasinglybeenmakingaboutMrAssadasitseekstopressRussiatoabandonitsbackingforhim:thatalthoughhe
professestobeatwarwithIslamistterrorists,hehasasymbioticrelationshipwiththeIslamicStatethathasallowedit
tothrivewhilehehasclungtopower.

ThefourcoreelementsofObamasSyriapolicyremainintacttoday:aninsistencethatAssadmustgothatnoanti-IS
coalitionwithRussiaispossiblethatTurkeyisasteadfastallyinthewaragainstterrorismandthattherereallyare
significantmoderateoppositionforcesfortheUStosupport.TheParisattackson13Novemberthatkilled130
peopledidnotchangetheWhiteHousespublicstance,althoughmanyEuropeanleaders,includingFranois
Hollande,advocatedgreaterco-operationwithRussiaandagreedtoco-ordinatemorecloselywithitsairforcethere
wasalsotalkoftheneedtobemoreflexibleaboutthetimingofAssadsexitfrompower.On24November,
HollandeflewtoWashingtontodiscusshowFranceandtheUScouldcollaboratemorecloselyinthefightagainst
IslamicState.AtajointpressconferenceattheWhiteHouse,ObamasaidheandHollandehadagreedthat
RussiasstrikesagainstthemoderateoppositiononlybolstertheAssadregime,whosebrutalityhashelpedtofuelthe
riseofIS.HollandedidntgothatfarbuthesaidthatthediplomaticprocessinViennawouldleadtoBasharal-
Assadsdepartureagovernmentofunityisrequired.Thepressconferencefailedtodealwiththefarmoreurgent
impassebetweenthetwomenonthematterofErdoan.ObamadefendedTurkeysrighttodefenditsborders
HollandesaiditwasamatterofurgencyforTurkeytotakeactionagainstterrorists.TheJCSadvisertoldmethat
oneofHollandesmaingoalsinflyingtoWashingtonhadbeentotrytopersuadeObamatojointheEUinamutual
declarationofwaragainstIslamicState.Obamasaidno.TheEuropeanshadpointedlynotgonetoNato,towhich
Turkeybelongs,forsuchadeclaration.Turkeyistheproblem,theJCSadvisersaid.

Assad,naturally,doesntacceptthatagroupofforeignleadersshouldbedecidingonhisfuture.ImadMoustapha,
nowSyriasambassadortoChina,wasdeanoftheITfacultyattheUniversityofDamascus,andacloseaideof
Assads,whenhewasappointedin2004astheSyrianambassadortotheUS,apostheheldforsevenyears.
MoustaphaisknownstilltobeclosetoAssad,andcanbetrustedtoreflectwhathethinks.Hetoldmethatfor
Assadtosurrenderpowerwouldmeancapitulatingtoarmedterroristgroupsandthatministersinanationalunity
governmentsuchaswasbeingproposedbytheEuropeanswouldbeseentobebeholdentotheforeignpowers
thatappointedthem.Thesepowerscouldremindthenewpresidentthattheycouldeasilyreplacehimastheydid
beforetothepredecessorAssadowesittohispeople:hecouldnotleavebecausethehistoricenemiesofSyria
aredemandinghisdeparture.

MoustaphaalsobroughtupChina,anallyofAssadthathasallegedlycommittedmorethan$30billiontopostwar
reconstructioninSyria.China,too,isworriedaboutIslamicState.ChinaregardstheSyriancrisisfromthree
perspectives,hesaid:internationallawandlegitimacyglobalstrategicpositioningandtheactivitiesofjihadist
Uighurs,fromXinjiangprovinceinChinasfarwest.XinjiangborderseightnationsMongolia,Russia,Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Afghanistan,PakistanandIndiaand,inChinasview,servesasafunnelforterrorismaround
theworldandwithinChina.ManyUighurfightersnowinSyriaareknowntobemembersoftheEastTurkestan
IslamicMovementanoftenviolentseparatistorganisationthatseekstoestablishanIslamistUighurstateinXinjiang.
ThefactthattheyhavebeenaidedbyTurkishintelligencetomovefromChinaintoSyriathroughTurkeyhascaused
atremendousamountoftensionbetweentheChineseandTurkishintelligence,Moustaphasaid.Chinaisconcerned
thattheTurkishroleofsupportingtheUighurfightersinSyriamaybeextendedinthefuturetosupportTurkeys
agendainXinjiang.WearealreadyprovidingtheChineseintelligenceservicewithinformationregardingthese
terroristsandtheroutestheycrossedfromontravellingintoSyria.

MoustaphasconcernswereechoedbyaWashingtonforeignaffairsanalystwhohascloselyfollowedthepassageof
jihadiststhroughTurkeyandintoSyria.Theanalyst,whoseviewsareroutinelysoughtbyseniorgovernmentofficials,
toldmethatErdoanhasbeenbringingUighursintoSyriabyspecialtransportwhilehisgovernmenthasbeen
agitatinginfavouroftheirstruggleinChina.UighurandBurmeseMuslimterroristswhoescapeintoThailand
somehowgetTurkishpassportsandarethenflowntoTurkeyfortransitintoSyria.Headdedthattherewasalso
whatamountedtoanotherratlinethatwasfunnellingUighursestimatesrangefromafewhundredtomany
thousandsovertheyearsfromChinaintoKazakhstanforeventualrelaytoTurkey,andthentoISterritoryinSyria.
USintelligence,hesaid,isnotgettinggoodinformationabouttheseactivitiesbecausethoseinsiderswhoare
unhappywiththepolicyarenottalkingtothem.HealsosaiditwasnotclearthattheofficialsresponsibleforSyrian
policyintheStateDepartmentandWhiteHousegetit.IHS-JanesDefenceWeeklyestimatedinOctoberthatas
manyasfivethousandUighurwould-befightershavearrivedinTurkeysince2013,withperhapstwothousand
movingontoSyria.Moustaphasaidhehasinformationthatupto860UighurfightersarecurrentlyinSyria.
ChinasgrowingconcernabouttheUighurproblemanditslinktoSyriaandIslamicStatehavepreoccupiedChristina
Lin,ascholarwhodealtwithChineseissuesadecadeagowhileservinginthePentagonunderDonaldRumsfeld.I
grewupinTaiwanandcametothePentagonasacriticofChina,Lintoldme.IusedtodemonisetheChineseas
ideologues,andtheyarenotperfect.ButovertheyearsasIseethemopeningupandevolving,Ihavebegunto
changemyperspective.IseeChinaasapotentialpartnerforvariousglobalchallengesespeciallyintheMiddleEast.
TherearemanyplacesSyriaforonewheretheUnitedStatesandChinamustco-operateinregionalsecurityand
counterterrorism.Afewweeksearlier,shesaid,ChinaandIndia,ColdWarenemiesthathatedeachothermore
thanChinaandtheUnitedStateshatedeachother,conductedaseriesofjointcounterterrorismexercises.Andtoday
ChinaandRussiabothwanttoco-operateonterrorismissueswiththeUnitedStates.AsChinaseesit,Linsuggests,
UighurmilitantswhohavemadetheirwaytoSyriaarebeingtrainedbyIslamicStateinsurvivaltechniquesintended
toaidthemoncovertreturntripstotheChinesemainland,forfutureterroristattacksthere.IfAssadfails,Linwrote
inapaperpublishedinSeptember,jihadifightersfromRussiasChechnya,ChinasXinjiangandIndiasKashmirwill
thenturntheireyestowardsthehomefronttocontinuejihad,supportedbyanewandwell-sourcedSyrianoperating
baseintheheartoftheMiddleEast.

GeneralDempseyandhiscolleaguesontheJointChiefsofStaffkepttheirdissentoutofbureaucraticchannels,and
survivedinoffice.GeneralMichaelFlynndidnot.FlynnincurredthewrathoftheWhiteHousebyinsistingontelling
thetruthaboutSyria,saidPatrickLang,aretiredarmycolonelwhoservedfornearlyadecadeasthechiefMiddle
EastcivilianintelligenceofficerfortheDIA.Hethoughttruthwasthebestthingandtheyshovedhimout.He
wouldntshutup.FlynntoldmehisproblemswentbeyondSyria.IwasshakingthingsupattheDIAandnotjust
movingdeckchairsontheTitanic.Itwasradicalreform.Ifeltthatthecivilianleadershipdidnotwanttohearthe
truth.Isufferedforit,butImOKwiththat.InarecentinterviewinDerSpiegel,FlynnwasbluntaboutRussias
entryintotheSyrianwar:WehavetoworkconstructivelywithRussia.Whetherwelikeitornot,Russiamadea
decisiontobethereandtoactmilitarily.Theyarethere,andthishasdramaticallychangedthedynamic.Soyoucant
sayRussiaisbadtheyhavetogohome.Itsnotgoingtohappen.Getreal.

FewintheUSCongresssharethisview.OneexceptionisTulsiGabbard,aDemocratfromHawaiiandmemberof
theHouseArmedServicesCommitteewho,asamajorintheArmyNationalGuard,servedtwotoursintheMiddle
East.InaninterviewonCNNinOctobershesaid:TheUSandtheCIAshouldstopthisillegaland
counterproductivewartooverthrowtheSyriangovernmentofAssadandshouldstayfocusedonfightingagainst
theIslamicextremistgroups.

Doesitnotconcernyou,theinterviewerasked,thatAssadsregimehasbeenbrutal,killingatleast200,000and
maybe300,000ofhisownpeople?

ThethingsthatarebeingsaidaboutAssadrightnow,Gabbardresponded,arethesamethatweresaidabout
Gaddafi,theyarethesamethingsthatweresaidaboutSaddamHusseinbythosewhowereadvocatingfortheUSto
overthrowthoseregimesIfithappenshereinSyriawewillendupinasituationwithfargreatersuffering,
withfargreaterpersecutionofreligiousminoritiesandChristiansinSyria,andourenemywillbefarstronger.

Sowhatyouaresaying,theinterviewerasked,isthattheRussianmilitaryinvolvementintheairandon-the-ground
IranianinvolvementtheyareactuallydoingtheUSafavour?
Theyareworkingtowarddefeatingourcommonenemy,Gabbardreplied.

GabbardlatertoldmethatmanyofhercolleaguesinCongress,DemocratsandRepublicans,havethankedher
privatelyforspeakingout.Therearealotofpeopleinthegeneralpublic,andevenintheCongress,whoneedto
havethingsclearlyexplainedtothem,Gabbardsaid.Butitshardwhentheressomuchdeceptionaboutwhatis
goingon.Thetruthisnotout.Itsunusualforapoliticiantochallengeherpartysforeignpolicydirectlyandonthe
record.Forsomeoneontheinside,withaccesstothemostsecretintelligence,speakingopenlyandcriticallycanbea
career-ender.Informeddissentcanbetransmittedbymeansofatrustrelationshipbetweenareporterandthoseon
theinside,butitalmostinvariablyincludesnosignature.Thedissentexists,however.Thelongtimeconsultanttothe
JointSpecialOperationsCommandcouldnothidehiscontemptwhenIaskedhimforhisviewoftheUSsSyria
policy.ThesolutioninSyriaisrightbeforeournose,hesaid.OurprimarythreatisIsisandallofustheUnited
States,RussiaandChinaneedtoworktogether.Basharwillremaininofficeand,afterthecountryisstabilised
therewillbeanelection.Thereisnootheroption.

ThemilitarysindirectpathwaytoAssaddisappearedwithDempseysretirementinSeptember.Hisreplacementas
chairmanoftheJointChiefs,GeneralJosephDunford,testifiedbeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommitteeinJuly,
twomonthsbeforeassumingoffice.Ifyouwanttotalkaboutanationthatcouldposeanexistentialthreattothe
UnitedStates,IdhavetopointtoRussia,Dunfordsaid.Ifyoulookattheirbehaviour,itsnothingshortof
alarming.InOctober,aschairman,DunforddismissedtheRussianbombingeffortsinSyria,tellingthesame
committeethatRussiaisnotfightingIS.HeaddedthatAmericamustworkwithTurkishpartnerstosecurethe
northernborderofSyriaanddoallwecantoenablevettedSyrianoppositionforcesi.e.themoderatesto
fighttheextremists.

ObamanowhasamorecompliantPentagon.Therewillbenomoreindirectchallengesfromthemilitaryleadershipto
hispolicyofdisdainforAssadandsupportforErdoan.DempseyandhisassociatesremainmystifiedbyObamas
continuedpublicdefenceofErdoan,giventheAmericanintelligencecommunitysstrongcaseagainsthimandthe
evidencethatObama,inprivate,acceptsthatcase.WeknowwhatyouredoingwiththeradicalsinSyria,the
presidenttoldErdoansintelligencechiefatatensemeetingattheWhiteHouse(asIreportedintheLRBof17April
2014).TheJointChiefsandtheDIAwereconstantlytellingWashingtonsleadershipofthejihadistthreatinSyria,
andofTurkeyssupportforit.Themessagewasneverlistenedto.Whynot?
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201609:32:11AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ALATENIGHT'MUSTCONSIDER']Fwd:TimothyAsh:IsUkraine-Russianpeacedealbrewingbehindthescenes?.....[PLUS]Twoon
Subject:
RU[fromMK]......[AND]A"JustSayin'...."Piece[BC,MarcRich&SerhiyKurzin]

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,January18,20167:47PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[ALATENIGHT'MUSTCONSIDER']Fwd:TimothyAsh:IsUkraine-Russianpeacedealbrewingbehindthescenes?.....[PLUS]
TwoonRU[fromMK]......[AND]A"JustSayin'...."Piece[BC,MarcRich&SerhiyKurzin]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at8:49PM
Subject:TimothyAsh:IsUkraine-Russianpeacedealbrewingbehindthescenes?
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-is-ukraine-russian-peace-deal-brewing-behind-the-scenes-
406166.html

Something significant might be happening in the Ukraine peace process.

First, we had the appointment of Boris Gryzlov, a real Kremlin heavyweight as Moscows representative to
peace talks. One read is that the appointment of a serious Kremlin insider to such a role suggests that Russian
President Vladimir Putin is now willing to seriously negotiate towards some kind of settlement, which might
just be acceptable to Kyiv rather than the previous policy which seemed to be to demand concessions
which were never really deliverable in Kyiv, and which were just meant to destabilize domestic politics in
Ukraine, or to undermine the security situation and macro stability and financing with it.

Second, President Petro Poroshenko last week spoke about securing control over Ukraines borders again this
year with some suggesting that he would not have made this claim unless he thought there was a
reasonable chance of delivering on it.

Third, the U.S. assistant secretary of state, Victory Nuland, had a meeting late last week in the Russian
enclave of Kaliningrad, with Vladislav Surkov, another close adviser to Putin. The session was described as a
brainstorming session over possible resolutions over the crisis in Ukraine, and generally feedback from
both sides was that the discussions were constructive. U.S. officials also spoke about the prospect of
sanctions on Ukraine over Donbas being relieved if they see Minsk implementation albeit retaining those
over Crimea.
Fourth, French and German envoys to the Ukrainian Normandy peace process are due in Kyiv this week for
highlevel discussions.

Fifth, Russia seems to be holding back from pursuing the nuclear, legal, card over the $3 billion in monies lent
to the former Yanukovych regime, due in December, but now in effect in default.

Now both sides still seem to be maneuvering for position e.g. with Russias imposition of a transit ban on
Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan, and Ukraines decision to hike gas transit fees on Russian gas transit to
Europe the latter bringing a tripling of the tariff, and hitting Russian when it is already smarting over the
drop in oil prices. But we have consistently seen some escalation by the sides in the run up to key
negotiations, and it might be the same this time around.

So why the sudden move on the part of Moscow to deal?

First, I think what is clear is that Russia is now facing a much more difficult economic outlook than even a
few months ago. The drop in oil prices over the past month, amid the SaudiIran schism, seems to have
been the gamechanger for Moscow and survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game (or
at least there is serious concern how long Russias balance sheet can hold up to ensure social stability).

Remember, only a month ago the budget was being based on the assumption of $50 a barrel average oil
prices, a flat real gross domestic product growth performance, even growth, and the ruble holding at around
63 to to the dollar.

Now with oil sub$30 a barrel, perhaps going lower, but now more likely to stay here or go lower, the
Kremlin seems to have gone into regime survival mode.

Imagine, oil at or below the $30 a barrel level likely means a deepening or extension of the recession (minus
23 percent real GDP growth downturn, after 3.54 percent loss in 2015), a budget deficit of 56 percent of
GDP, the depletion of the Ministry of Finance'ss various reserve funds, and a drop in the ruble to beyond
ruble 80 to the dollar, with unpredictable consequences for consumer and business confidence, capital flight,
inflation and the durability of the banking sector.

GDP has dropped from over $2.1 trillion in 2013 when the crisis over Ukraine started to likely less than $1
trillion this year. This means that per capita GDP has dropped from over $15,000 to just over $7,000. And
while opinion polls still suggest strong popular support for the Putin regime, experience suggests that they do
not take this for granted, and rather are very sensitive to the potential for social and political unrest and
colored revolutions.

Recent bans on Russian tourist visits to Turkey and Egypt will at least limit the potential for Russias middle
and skilled working classes to realise just how far their foreign spending power has been crushed. But
eventually Russians will realise that they are in fact a lot poorer, and the Putin Potemkim village was not built
on very much.

Second, and related therein I think there is recognition by Moscow that the period of high oil and
commodity prices (20002013) is gone, and that the SaudiIran shism is likely now to usher in an extended
period of low oil prices and hence a much more challenging outlook for Russia I think only a few weeks
back Russian policy makers were overly sanguine over a speedy bounceback in oil prices, and perhaps
were surprised by the fact that Moscows recent Syrian intervention failed to have much impact in terms of
oil prices or leverage extracted for potential concessions over Ukraine. There is now new realism in Moscow
over likely oil price trends, what this means for the Russian economy and the social and political risks now
building domestically. So I think the willingness to partake in highrisk foreign adventures, such as in Ukraine,
is now moderating.

Third, recognition that Western sanctions against Russia are working after all and despite all the skepticism
in the West and elsewhere that they were pointless.

True, they may not have been the main factor forcing Moscow back to the negotiating table over Ukraine
(oil was), but they have made a brutally difficult economic situation for Russia because of low oil prices
that much more painful, arguably now to breaking point. So faced by a now acutely difficult domestic
economic situation, Moscow is desperate for some light relief and does not want to be seen as still being in
the sanctions bad boy corner, while Iran has been let out of detention.

Fourth, perhaps recognition that Moscows policy towards Ukraine has essentially failed Putin might have
secured Crimea, but at the price of the loss of the rest of Ukraine.

The military option largely failed In Donbas as Moscow was unwilling to deploy the required massive
military deployment to ensure victory and to engage in total war, while the Ukrainians proved willing to
fight, and as time goes by their capability to defend Ukraine (they dont need an offensive capability) is
growing, taking the military option off the table for Moscow in effect.

Meanwhile, other efforts to extract leverage by Moscow including the energy, debt and trade accounts are
all weakening over time.

In energy Ukraine has cut imports from Russia in gas to near zero, while low oil and energy prices reduce
Russias leverage further.

The trade channel has similarly been cut off for Moscow, by the collapse in RussiaUkraine trade over the
past 23 years, and Russias efforts to impose a transit ban is now viewed as somewhat desperate, and
trade/transit bans now threaten to hurt Russia more by threatening key supplies of military inputs.

Even the debtdefault channel has been nullified by the private sector restructuring, provision of
International Monetary Fund financing, leaving Moscow now with the prospect of a longdrawn out, and still
possibly fruitless legal battle over the $3 billion in Eurobonds lent to the former Viktor Yanukovych regime.

The harder that Moscow now presses Ukraine in the trade, economy, debt and energy fields, the more
independent of Russia Ukraine becomes, and the weaker foothold that Russia will have for the future in
Ukraine. Thus having lost the battle for heart and minds in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the
military intervention in Donbas, there will be little reason for Ukrainians to economically interact with Russia
and even more to develop other economic relationships Westwards.

Fifth, there is perhaps a final hope that the best way to keep Moscows options open now in Ukraine is to
adopt a less confrontational approach and to assume that Ukrainian politicians revert to script over the past
20 years and selfdestruct under their own momentum.

Reviewing the above the question is still whether Russias longterm strategic objectives towards Ukraine
have changed i.e. to bring it back within its sphere of influence but in the short term Moscow seems to
be signaling a desire to compromise, and to deal.

The question then is how far it is willing to back down over issues stalling Minsk II implementation.

For the US, the key issue remains as Poroshenko says, control over its borders, which for Russia would mean
cutting off military supplies/resupply to the (separatist) regimes, and the potential that these authorities
could collapse when cut from support lines to Moscow.

Ideally Moscow still seems to be pushing for assurances over some form of enhanced autonomy (Kosovostyle)
or a federalstyle solution which are still clearly unacceptable to Kyiv.

But importantly, Moscow seems to be willing to deal and this was likely the topic of discussion for
Nuland/Surkov, and also for Boris Gryzlov in his recent trip to Kyiv. The question will be how far Poroshenko
wants to push Moscow at this stage, and will the West be cajoling him along to accept a compromise which
still might be difficult for him to sell back home, and could still destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine.
Many in Ukraine would be nervous over the speedy return of (Russiancontrolled territories in the Donbas ) to
Ukrainian control over fear that they could act either as a Trojan horse within Ukraine, and/or provide a
huge drain again on an already weak state.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at9:53PM
Subject:TweetbyDavidPatrikarakosonTwitter[#Russiangeneralswhodiedmysteriously:hanged,shotthemselves,
jumpedoutwindows,caraccidents]V@RobPulseNewspic.twitter.com/5ErPYhLZ8d
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

DavidPatrikarakos(@dpatrikarakos)

1/17/16,3:35PM

#Russia|ngeneralswhodiedmysteriously:hanged,shotthemselves,jumpedoutwindows,caraccidents
V@RobPulseNewspic.twitter.com/5ErPYhLZ8d

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at10:32PM
Subject:RussiaAimingForZeroPercentGrowthLiveUpdates,followedbyChechenSpeakerofParliamentandSenator
ContinueAttacksonLiberalOppositionEkhoMoskvy,TVRainRespond
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

ChechenSpeakerofParliamentandSenatorContinueAttacksonLiberalOppositionEkhoMoskvy,TVRain
Respond

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-aiming-for-zero-percent-growth-live-updates/#11937

Prettyscarystuff,thisKadyrov&henchmen.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JFB
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at9:17AM
Subject:NEWYORKPOST:BillClinton,MarcRich&SergeiKurzin[ED:JustSayin'.......]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

http://nypost.com/2016/01/17/after-pardoning-criminal-marc-rich-clintons-made-millions-off-friends/

BillClintonspardonoffugitiveMarcRichcontinuestopaybig

byPeterSchweizer

Fifteenyearsagothismonth,onJan.20,2001,hislastdayinoffice,BillClintonissuedapardonforinternationalfugitiveMarc
Rich.ItwouldbecomeperhapsthemostcondemnedofficialactofClintonspoliticalcareer.ANewYorkTimeseditorialcalledit
ashockingabuseofpresidentialpower.TheusuallyClinton-friendlyNewRepublicnoteditisoftenmentionedasExhibitAof
Clintoniansliminess.

CongressmanBarneyFrankadded,ItwasarealbetrayalbyBillClintonofallwhohadbeenstronglysupportiveofhimtodo
somethingthisunjustified.Itwascontemptuous."

MarcRichwaswantedforalistofchargesgoingbackdecades.HehadtradedillegallywithAmericasenemiesincluding
AyatollahKhomeinisIran,whereheboughtabout$200millionworthofoilwhilerevolutionariesalliedwithKhomeiniheld53
Americanhostagesin1979.

Richmadealargepartofhiswealth,approximately$2billionbetween1979and1994,sellingoiltotheapartheidregimeinSouth
AfricawhenitfacedaUNembargo.HediddealswithKhadafysLibya,MilosevicsYugoslavia,KimIlSungsNorthKorea,
CommunistdictatorshipsinCubaandtheSovietUnionitself.LittlesurprisethathewasontheFBIsTenMostWantedList.

FacingprosecutionbyRudyGiulianiin1983,RichfledtoSwitzerlandandlivedinexile.

WhatbotheredsomanywasthatClintonsclemencytoRichreekedofpayoff.Intherun-uptothepresidentialpardon,the
financiersex-wifeDenisehaddonated$450,000tothefledglingClintonLibraryandover$1milliontoDemocraticcampaignsin
theClintoneraJudgeAbnerMikva,acounselintheClintonWhiteHouseandmentortoPresidentObama,notedthateven
Obamawasvery,verydismayedbytheMarcRichpardonandthebasisonwhichitappearstohavebeengranted.

Butdoesthestoryendthere?Isitpossiblethepayoffscontinuedafterheleftoffice?

Thestenchofthescandalinearly2001sentpeoplescurrying.DaysafteritwasrevealedthataseniorUBSexecutivenamed
PierredeWeckhadwrittenalettertoClintontosupporthisrequestforapardon,theSwissbankinggiantcanceledits
discussionswithClintonaboutalucrativepost-WhiteHousespeech,apparentlyworriedthatalargespeakingfeewouldcreatean
appearanceofimpropriety.
EvenBillClintoneventuallyadmittedthatthepardonhadbeenterriblepolitics.Itwasntworththedamagetomyreputation,
hesaid.

Butwhilethepardonwasapoliticalmistake,itcertainlywasnotafinancialone.Intheyearsfollowingthescandal,theflowof
fundsfromthoseconnectedtoMarcRichorthepardonscandalhavecontinuedtotheClintons.

Richsbusinesspartners,lawyers,advisersandfriendshaveshoweredmillionsofdollarsontheClintonsinthedecadeandahalf
followingthescandal.

Richdiedin2013.Buthisbusinesspartners,lawyers,advisersandfriendshaveshoweredmillionsofdollarsontheClintonsinthe
decadeandahalffollowingthescandal.

NigerianbusinessmanGilbertChagouryiswellknownasacloseallyandbusinessassociateofRich.TheNigerianmediadeclared
in1999thattheGilbertChagoury-MarcRichallianceremainsaformidablefoe.Theysoldoiloninternationalmarketstogether.
In2000,ChagourywasconvictedinGenevaofmoneylaunderingandaidingacriminalorganizationinconnectionwiththebillions
ofdollarsstolenfromNigeriaduringthereignofdictatorGen.SaniAbacha.

Aspartofapleadeal,theconvictionwaslaterexpunged.

ChagouryhasbeenverygeneroustotheClintonsintheyearsfollowingtheRichpardon.HehasorganizedaneventatwhichBill
waspaid$100,000tospeak(in2003),donatedmillionstotheClintonFoundationandin2009pledgedacool$1billiontothe
ClintonGlobalInitiative.TheChagouryswerealsoactiveinHillarys2008presidentialbid.MichelChaghouri,arelativeinLos
Angeles,wasabundlerandservedonhercampaignstaff.Numerousotherrelativesgaveamaximumof$4,600tohercampaign.

Inreturn,BillhaslavishedpraisedonChagouryovertheyears.In2005,BillwasthekeynotespeakerwhenChagouryreceived
thePrideofHeritageAwardfromtheLebanesecommunity.

In2009,CGIgaveChagouryscompanyanawardforsustainabledevelopment.In2013,BillshowedupinNigeriaforapublic
ceremonyinvolvingoneofChagourysprojects.WhenBillClintonhadhis60thbirthdayparty,Chagourywasaninvitedguest.
ChagouryalsoattendedtheweddingofBillslongtimeaide,DougBand.

ThentheresRussianinvestorSergeiKurzin.HeworkedforMarcRichinthe1990s,travelingaroundRussialooking
forsuitableinvestmentopportunitiesinthecrumbledformerSovietUnion.

Anengineerbytraining,KurzinhasbeeninvolvedinlucrativedealsinKazakhstanandothercountries,includingthe
lucrativeUraniumOnedealthatinvolvedBillClintonandFrankGiustra.

Russiabought20percentofalluraniumproductioncapacityintheUS,adealthatneededtobesignedoffonbythe
StateDepartmentwhenitwasheadedbyHillaryClinton.Whilethedealwasgoingthrough,BillClintonwaspaid
$500,000togiveaspeechinMoscow,paidforbyaRussianinvestmentbankpromotingtheuraniumdeal.

Kurzin,meanwhile,donated$1milliontotheClintonFoundation.

TheLondon-basedReubenBrothershavemadeafortunethanksinparttotheircommoditiesfirmTransWorld
Metals.AccordingtotheWorldBank,theyfoundedthatfirmwithmoneyfromMarcRich.

AndtheyhaveconfirmedthattheyhadbusinessdealingswithRich.TheReubenBrothers,throughtheirownReubenFoundation,
havebeenenthusiasticsupportersoftheClintons.Theyco-hostedastar-studdedgalawiththeClintonFoundationinLondon
dubbedtheMillenniumNetwork.TheyhavealsodirectlydonatedtensofthousandsofdollarstotheClintonFoundation
BethDozoretz,alongtimeDemocraticPartydonor,wasafriendtoDeniseRich,andaccordingtocongressionalinvestigations,
playedakeyroleinhelpingsecuretheMarcRichpardon.OnJan.10,2001,DozoretzreceivedaphonecallfromPresidentBill
ClintoninformingherthathewasplanningtopardoninternationalfugitiveMarcRich.Dozoretzinformedherskipartneronthat
trip,DeniseRich,ofthegreatnews.

Intheyearssincethepardonwasgranted,DozoretzhasservedtheClintonsclosely:asthefinanceco-chairofHillarys2008
campaignandasaseniorStateDepartmentofficialduringHillarystenure.ShehassupportedthesuperPACReadyforHillaryand
theHillaryClintoncampaign.Herhusband,Ronald,hassent$25,000to$50,000totheClintonFoundation.

EventhesmallerphantomsoftheMarcRichscandalhavepoppedup,openingtheirwalletsfortheClintons.GershonKekst,who
wasMarcRichslongtimep.r.manintheUnitedStates,hascontributedmorethan$10,000toHillaryscampaignssincethe
pardon.ClydeMeltzerwasnamedintheoriginal1983DOJindictmentagainstMarcRichandPincusGreen.Meltzerpleaded
guiltyratherthanfleethecountrylikeRichandGreen.Inthe1990sherejoinedRich,workingforthefugitivesnewfirm,Glencore.
AccordingtoFederalElectionCommissionrecords,Meltzerhasaslimhistoryofgivingmoneytocandidates,givingonly$1,000
toacongressionalcandidate.Butin2007hegavethemaximumallowedtotheHillaryClintoncampaign.ThreeofMarcRichs
attorneys,PeterKadzik,RobertFinkandJackQuinn,alsoaformercounselattheClintonWhiteHouse,havedonatedtoHillarys
campaigns.Quinnhasgivenbetween$25,000and$50,000totheClintonFoundation.

TheseRichconnectionsare,ofcourse,basedondiscloseddonations.ButwenowknowthattheClintonFoundationhasfailedto
disclosemorethan1,000donors,despiteitswrittenagreementwiththeObamatransitionteamthatitwouldmaintaincomplete
transparency.

ManyofthosedonationscamethroughaClintonFoundationprojectinCanada,whichisheavilyladenwithdonationsfromthe
naturalresourcesandcommoditiesindustries.Kurzin,forexample,hasgivenviathisroute.AretheremoreMarcRich-connected
dollarsthathaveflowedtotheClintons?Willtheyeverprovidethefulldisclosuretheyhavesooftenpromised?

ItcannotbemerecoincidencethatintheyearsoffundraisingfortheClintonFoundation,oneoftheindustriesthathasemergedas
abigbackeroftheClintonsistheminingandcommoditiesindustry,whereMarcRichmadehisfortune.

WhenitcomestoWashingtonscandals,newsusuallysendspoliticalfiguresscurryingforcoverleadingthemtoavoidthose
connectedtothescandal.ApparentlynotsowiththeClintons.AreyouconnectedtothedisgracedMarcRichandtheterrible
pardon?ItsOK,aslongasthecheckclears.

 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/14/201501:09:11PM
To: JuliaWorth<juliagworth@gmail.com>
Subject: JohnKerrysMiddleEastMission-TheNewYorker

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/negotiating-the-whirlwind?intcid=mod-most-popular

NegotiatingtheWhirlwind

Hisoptimismissuchthathethinks,Wewillconfrontthis!
oneofficialsaidofKerrysattitude.Theresgottobea
solution.IllustrationbyBarryBlitt

JohnKerry,thesixty-eighthSecretaryofStateoftheUnitedStates,wasborntoatemperamentofwintryrectitude.Heis
descendedfromtheWinthrops,whohelpedfoundtheMassachusettsBayColony,andtheForbeses,aBrahminclanthat
madeitsmoneyinrailwaysandinexportingtea,silver,andopiumtoChina.Hisfatherwasadiplomat.KerryattendedSt.
PaulsandYale(wherehewasinSkullandBones)and,asanavalofficerinVietnam,earnedthreePurpleHearts,theBronze
Star,andtheSilverStar.HedatedJacquelineKennedyshalf-sister,sailedwithJ.F.K.,andmarriedtwiceintosubstantial
fortunes.Despitethecodesofhisclass,however,Kerrywasneverentirelysubtleabouthisambitions.Whenhewasinprep
school,hisclassmatesusedtoplayHailtotheChieftohimonthekazoo.

In2004,whenKerrylostthePresidentialracetoGeorgeW.Bush,whoiswidelyconsideredtheworstPresidentofthe
modernera,herefusedtochallengetheresults,despitehissuspicionthatincertainstates,particularlyOhio,wherethe
ElectoralCollegecounthinged,proxiesforBushhadriggedmanyvotingmachines.Buthecouldnotsufferthedefeatin
completesilence.HewasoutragedthatBush,whohadwonastatesideberthintheTexasAirNationalGuardduringthe
VietnamWar,usedcampaignsurrogates,theso-calledSwiftBoatVeteransforTruth,toslimehismilitaryrecord.Hewas
furious,too,atRobertShrum,hischiefstrategist,andothercampaignadviserswhohadrestrainedhimfromhittingback.

Foralongperiod,after2004,everytimeheevenhalffellasleepallhesawwasvotingmachinesinthestateofOhio,Mike
Barnicle,aclosefriendofKerrysandaformercolumnistfortheBostonGlobe,toldme.Thissummer,Barniclespenttime
withKerryonNantucket,whereKerryandhiswife,TeresaHeinz,haveahouseonthewaterandaseventy-six-foot,seven-
million-dollarsailboatcalledIsabel.Weweresittinginthebow,Barniclerecalled,andweweretalkingaboutabunchof
differentthingsaboutIran,aboutwhatthePresidentofIranwaslikeandIsaid,OtherthannotbeingPresident,thisis
prettygood.Therewasasecurityboatsailingofftothesideofus.Thenhesaid,Yeah,yeah,IrealizehowbadlyShrum
screwedme.
Afewweeksago,betweenKerrystripstoEuropeandtheMiddleEast,IhaddinnerwithKerryandHeinzattheirhousein
Georgetown,atwenty-three-roommansiondecoratedwithEarlyAmericanportraits,Dutchstill-lifes,andanamiableyellow
LabradorretrievernamedBen.(TheLabhastheTwitterhandle@DiploMutt.)IaskedKerryhowlonghecarriedarounda
senseofangerandresentment.

Ididntcarryit,heinsisted.Ididnt.Ididnt.MywifewasmadatmethatIdidntcarryitlonger.

Fromacrossthetable,TeresaHeinzsaid,Imstillcarryingit.

TheSecretaryofStatelookedupfromhishalibut.Anillwindofpanicswepttheoblongplainofhisface.Fromthethick
thatchofgrayhairtotheimprobablylongandthrustingchin,Kerrysvisageisimmenseand,initsimplacableresting
expression,resemblesoneofthemonolithicheadsthatrisefromtheloamofEasterIsland.

Well,Imnot,Kerrysaid.

Hisgazeturnedtohiswife,wordlesslyimploringhertokeepquiet.Heinzisseventy-seven,fiveyearsolderthanher
husband,and,in2013,shesufferedaseizurethatshehasattributedtoanearlierconcussionthatwasnotproperlytreated
atall.Itsnoteasyforhertogetaround,andsheappearsinfrequentlyatpublicevents,butshespokeclearlyandardently
throughouttheevening,muchasshehadduringthe2004campaign.

Shewasnotquitedone.Iknewfromlookingatthe...

KerryusesmanytermsofendearmentforhiswifenowhecalledherbythetelegraphicT.

T,letsnotgo...hesaidgently.

Asshetriedtospeakagain,heshutitdown.

T,T,werenot...Ididntwanttospendtimethere,hesaid.Ijustconsciouslydidnotspendtimethere,andImoved
on,andImovedonasrapidlyas...Itsover.Itsbehindme....Icouldhavedonesomethingsalittlebitdifferently.We
didnt.ButImnotgoingtofeelregrettherestofmylife.

Inearly2013,aftertwenty-eightyearsintheSenate,KerrysucceededHillaryClintonasSecretaryofState.Heisseventy-
two,andthisisalmostsurelyhislasthigh-rankingjobasapublicofficial.Asheputittome,Ihavefourteenmonthsleft
ontheclock.HehasalreadymadehishistoricalmarkbyactingastheObamaAdministrationschiefnegotiatorinthe
nucleartalkswithIran.Thatdeal,whichisdesignedtopreventIranfrombuildinganatomicweaponandsparkinganuclear
armsracethroughouttheMiddleEast,wassignedtwomonthsago.Butitwasneveraforegoneconclusion.Thistimelast
year,theWhiteHousewasrunningPlanBmeetingsaboutwhatstepstotakedeepersanctions,potentialmilitarystrikes
ifthetalksfailed.

HisadmirersandhiscriticsinthediplomaticworlddescribeKerryinsimilarterms:tirelesslyoptimistic,dogged,rhetorically
undisciplined,undauntedbyrisk,convincedthatifhecanjustgettherelevantpartiesintotheroomhecanmakeadeal.
JohnKerrypickshisbattles,andheinvestsbodyandsoulintacklingconflictswherethehumanconsequencesarevery
high,SamanthaPower,theUnitedStatesAmbassadortotheUnitedNations,toldme.Whenheengages,heisallin.

Kerryhasshownrepeatedlythathewilluseanyleverasameansofdiplomaticpersuasionincludinghisdefeatin2004.

InJuly,2014,AfghanistanfacedapotentialcivilwarasthecandidatestosucceedHamidKarzaiasPresidentAbdullah
Abdullah,aphysicianandtheformerforeignminister,andAshrafGhani,theformerchancellorofKabulUniversity
chargedeachotherwithtryingtostealtheelection.Afewyearsearlier,Kerry,servingasObamasemissarywhilestillinthe
Senate,hadtalkedKarzaidownfromrecklessdecisionsbyrecallinghisownpoliticalupheavalsnowheneededtodo
somethingsimilar.

OnJuly12th,AbdullahmetwithKerry,inKabul,attheAmericanAmbassadorsresidence.Abdullahssupportersinthe
NorthernAllianceandamongvariouswarlordsGhanihadhisownwarlordconstituencydidnotwanthimtobackdown.
ItwaslefttoKerrytoarguethat,despitewhatwasdelicatelydescribedaselectoralimproprieties,confrontationhadtobe
avoided.

IranforPresidentandIlostandnowImSecretaryofStateofthemostpowerfulcountryintheworld,Kerrytold
Abdullahandhisentourage,accordingtoanaidescontemporaneousnotes.Iknowyouranger.Iknowyourfrustration.
HepressedAbdullahnottowalkawayfrompolitics,lestthecountrytumbleintochaosandthenextgenerationloseits
chance.

TheUnitedNationscarriedoutanauditoftheelectionanddeterminedthatalthoughtherehadbeenfraudonbothsides,
Ghanihadwon.Abdullahwasstillnotpreparedtoyield.OnSeptember17th,KerrycalledAbdullahfromhisofficeatthe
StateDepartmenttopersuadehimtoconcedeandaccepttheface-savingpositionofchiefexecutiveofficerinGhanis
government.

Buytheprint

HeaskedAbdullahtoputhisphoneonspeakersothathisaidescouldhear.AfterflatteringAbdullahforhisstrengthand
importanceinthecountry,Kerrysaid,Iwillsharewithyouaverypersonalexperience:WhenIranforPresidentofthe
UnitedStates,in2004,againstGeorgeBush,intheend,onElectionDay,wehadproblemsinthestateofOhioonhowthe
votesweretakingplace.IevenwenttocourtinAmericatokeeppollingplacesopentomakesuremypeoplecouldvote.I
knewthateveninmycountry,theUnitedStates,wherewehadhundredsofyearsofpracticingdemocracy,westillhad
problemscarryingoutthatelection.Thenextafternoon,Ihadameetingwithmypeople,andItoldthemthatIdidnotthink
itappropriateofmetotakethecountrythroughthreeorfourmonthsofnotknowingwhothePresidentwas.Sothat
afternooninBostonIconcededtothePresidentandtalkedabouttheneedtobringthecountrytogether....Oneofthe
mainlessonsfromthisisthereisafuture.Thereisatomorrow.

Severaldayslater,AbdullahAbdullahconcededandjoinedtheAfghangovernment.

KerryandHeinzhavenoshortageofresidencesinadditiontothehousesinGeorgetownandonNantucket,theyliveinan
eighteenth-centuryfive-storypileonLouisburgSquare,inBeaconHillinafamilycompoundonNaushon,aprivateisland
offCapeCodinafifteenth-centuryEnglishfarmhousethatwasreassembledonthebankofBigWoodRiver,inSunValley
andonaninety-acrefarmcalledRosemont,outsidePittsburgh,whereHeinzspenttimewithherfirsthusband,H.John
HeinzIII,theRepublicansenatorandcondimentsscion,whodiedin1991.WhenKerryranforPresident,herfortunewas
estimatedataroundabilliondollars.KerryandHeinzkeeptheirfinancialassetsseparate,but,hadKerrywonin2004,they
would,together,havebeenthewealthiestfamilyevertooccupytheWhiteHouse.

AsSecretaryofState,however,Kerryspendsmuchofhislifeonboardaworse-for-weargovernmentjet,aBoeing757.
BothKerryandClintonhaveoftenhadthehumblingexperienceoftheplanebreakingdown:ablowntire,aleakinan
auxiliaryfueltank,electronicproblems.

Kerryissix-fourandwalkswithapainedrollinhisgait.Hehashadbothhipsreplacedhisice-hockeydaysatYaletooka
tollandheisstillrecoveringfromanaccidentlastMay,inwhichhesteeredhisracingbikeintoacurb,crashedtothe
road,andshatteredhisrightfemur.Hetravelsinacabininthefrontoftheplane,whereacouchunfoldsintoabed,
allowinghimtostretchouttoreadbriefingpapersandtomakecallsonasecuretelephonelinetoforeignleadersandtothe
WhiteHouse.Hedoesntsleepmuch,butsometimeshebringsalonganylon-stringguitarandrelaxesbyplayingBeatles
songs,Spanishlaments,andshowtunes.(ArgentinawillbedelightedtohearthatEvitaisafavorite.)Whenhesononeof
hisdiplomaticdeathmarchesthroughsomerarelyvisitedregionrecently,itwasfiveCentralAsiannationsintwodays
helikestoboneupwithacrashcourse.

IusuallyGoogleacountry,findaninterestingarticleortwo,readaboutit,getsomehistory,hetoldme.Iwanttoknow
whereIam.Iwanttoknowwhatmadethisplacelikeitis.WhatisitaboutSamarkandthatsspecial?

InlateOctober,Ijoinedhimononeofthedeathmarches,aThursday-to-SundaytripfromAndrewsAirForceBase,
outsideD.C.,toBerlin,Vienna,Amman,andRiyadh.Hisjobistogivestrategicadvice,helpexecuteWhiteHousepolicy,
tampdowncrises,andreachagreementstostrokeallies,sendclearsignalstopowersconsideredmoreproblematic,like
Russia,Turkey,SaudiArabia,andChinaandtoforgepotentialrelationshipswitholdenemieslikeIran.

TheObamaAdministration,workinginthepoliticalsafehavenofasecondterm,haswontworecent,ifdivisive,victories:
thedealwithIranandtheopeningtoCuba.Italsohasabucketlist:reachingaceasefireandpoliticalsettlementinSyria
steppingupaninternationallycordinatedfightagainstISISandadvancingthefightagainstclimatechange.Thistripwas
designedmainlytogetwildlydisparatepartiesfromtheWest,Russia,andtheMiddleEasttobeginnegotiationsonSyria.In
particular,thetrickwastogetIranintheroomwithoutlosingitsswornenemies,theSunninationsoftheGulf.

Kerryspersistenceandself-assurance,coupledwithexcruciatingeconomicsanctions,iswhathelpedhimsucceedwiththe
Iranians.Itsalsowhatledtoninemonthsoffruitless,chaotic,and,arguably,corrosivenegotiationsthatbrokedownlast
yearbetweentheIsraelisandthePalestiniansnegotiationsthatalmostnoone,noteventhePresident,believedwouldlead
toabreakthrough.Kerryarguedthatthehellboundtrajectoryofeventswasheadingtowardcalamity,andhehadtotryhis
criticssaidthattheconditionswerenotripe,andthattheeffortamountedtoadiplomaticvanityproject.KerrysMiddle
EastadventurewaspreciselythekindofinitiativethatHillaryClinton,whowasintentonrunningforPresident,andwhois,
bynature,moreriskaverse,wasdisinclinedtotakeupasSecretaryofState.

ThePresidenthasadmiredKerrysenergyandsenseofcommitmentsincetheyworkedtogetherontheSenateForeign
RelationsCommittee,although,anumberofsourcestoldme,heoccasionallyribsKerryforhismoreheadlongefforts.And
yetthetwohavemarkedlydifferenttemperamentsandviewsofwhattheUnitedStatesshouldattempttoachieve,
particularlyintheMiddleEast.ObamaseestheregioninthethroesofhistoricalturmoilSunniversusShia,civilwarin
Syria,threatstonationalboundariesdrawnbyFranceandGreatBritainacenturyago,threatstothestabilityofLebanon,
Jordan,evenSaudiArabia.Havingseenoneinterventionafteranotherfail,heisdeterminedtoactwithrestraint.Kerry,on
theotherhand,seesnohistoricaltrendsthatcandefeatus,PhilipGordon,aveteranNationalSecurityCouncilofficialand
ObamasprincipaladviserontheMiddleEastfrom2013tothespringof2015,toldme.Hisoptimismissuchthathe
thinks,Wewillconfrontthis!Wewilldealwithit!Theresgottobeasolution.Wejustneedtofinditandleadpeople
there.Gordondoesnotsaythiswithadmiration.

WelandedatamilitaryairportinBerlin.KerrygotintoanEmbassycarandheadedtoameetingwiththeIsraeliPrime
Minister,BenjaminNetanyahu,whohappenedtobeinGermanytoseeChancellorAngelaMerkel.Inrecentweeks,there
hadbeenanalarminguptickinstreetviolenceinJerusalemandtheWestBankstabbings,shootings,rockthrowing,face-
offswithtroopsandatleastsomeofitwasduetorumorsthattheIsraeliswantedtoexertmorecontrolovertheTemple
Mount,intheOldCity,orwhatArabscalltheHaramal-Sharif,theNobleSanctuary.SomeIsraelisonthereligiousright
wanttobuildaThirdTempletheresomeArabsclaim,wrongly,thatthesite,nowdominatedbytheAlAqsaMosque,never
hadanyJewishhistoricalimportance.

KerrymetwithNetanyahuwiththemodestgoalofdiallingbacktherhetoricabouttheTempleMountonbothsides,getting
theIsraelistomakeitclearthatthecomplexstatusquowasnotgoingtochange.ButNetanyahuhadjustinfuriatedhimby
givingaspeechsuggestingthatthegrandmuftiofJerusaleminthethirtieswastheideologicalinspirationfortheFinal
Solution.HitlerdidntwanttoexterminatetheJewsatthetime,NetanyahutoldtheWorldZionistCongress,inlate
October.HewantedtoexpeltheJews.NetanyahusaidthemuftididntwantGermanJewstocometoPalestine,so,
instead,headvisedHitlertoburnthem.Themuftiwas,infact,anti-Semiticandpro-Nazi,butthenotionthathewasthe
ideologistoftheHolocaustwaspreposterous.
 Lately,IfeelliketheonlytimeIhavetomyselfiswhenIm
havingsexwithBrian.Buytheprint

AlthoughNetanyahuclarifiedhiscommentsonthemuftibeforearrivinginBerlin,Kerryscircledidnotseethe
performanceasanaberration.MostoftheministersinNetanyahuscabinetareontherecordopposingatwo-statesolution.
AmericanofficialsspeakofNetanyahuasmyopic,entitled,untrustworthy,routinelydisrespectfultowardthePresident,and
focussedsolelyonshort-termpoliticaltacticstokeephisright-wingconstituencyinline.Netanyahuseemsnottocareifhe
insultstheAdministration.RonDermer,hisambassadortotheU.S.,secretlyarrangedwithJohnBoehnerforNetanyahuto
speakbeforeCongresswithoutalertingtheWhiteHouseDannyDanon,hisenvoytotheU.N.,blamedObamaslackof
leadershipforTurkishandIranianaggressionandRanBaratz,whomNetanyahuappointedlastmonthashismediachief,
wroteonhisFacebookpagethatthePresidentwasanti-SemiticandthatKerryhadthementalabilitiesofatwelve-year-old.

KerrysometimesspeaksvaguelyoftryingyetagaintoforgeanIsraeli-PalestiniansettlementThereareworsethingsthan
gettingcaughttryingbuthislastattemptlefthimbadlydisillusioned.Hispubliccommentsnowmakeitclearthatonlyif
IsraelandthePalestinianscomeknockingwillhegetinvolvedinanegotiation.In2014,asKerryshuttledfromcapitalto
capital,oneIsraelicabinetministertoldme,Weareonlydoingthisforyou!MosheYaalon,Netanyahusdefenseminister,
wasquotedintheIsraelipresssaying,TheonlythingthatcansaveusisforJohnKerrytowinaNobelPrizeandleave
usinpeace.Kerry,Yaalonsaid,turnedupheredeterminedandactingoutofmisplacedobsessionandmessianicfervor.

TherelationshipfurthersouredwhenNetanyahubroughthiscampaignagainsttheIrannucleardealtotheflooroftheU.S.
Congress.ThefrustrationwiththeIsraelisonalotofissueshasbeensky-high,oneseniorU.S.officialtoldme,
characterizingthemoodatboththeWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartment.Americanofficialsarefrustratedinvarious
wayswiththePalestiniansaswell,but,astheofficialsaid,theydonthaveanypowerinthisdynamic.TheIsraelishaveall
thecards.

Asadiplomat,Kerryisduty-boundtodescriberawrealityinupholsteredplatitudes.Andso,afterhislongsessioninBerlin
withNetanyahu,hesaid,inavoicethathadbeenrenderedascratchywhisperbytoomanyhoursoftalking,thatthe
meetinglefthimcautiouslyencouraged.Hehopedtoresolveage-olddifferencesinafrozenconflict.Hewantedthe
partiestopullbackfromtheprecipiceandgodownaroadthattakespeoplesomewhere.Andsoon.

StateDepartmentaidessaidthatsourcesofKerrysexasperationwithNetanyahurangefromtheinjusticeofsettlement
buildingintheWestBanktothewayheemploysYitzhakMolcho,hislawyerandconfidant,tostifleeventhemost
inconsequentialnegotiation.KerrysspecialenvoyFrankLowensteintoldmethatKerrywillplaythroughthewhistle,and
persistwiththeIsraelisandthePalestiniansuntiltheendofhistimeinoffice,butheadded,Thewindowforatwo-state
solutionisclosing,thoughnoneofuswhoveworkedonitwillregretthatwetriedtosaveit.

KerrybelievesthatIsrael,alongwiththeoccupiedterritories,isheadedtowardbecomingaunitarystatethatisan
impossibleentitytomanage.Heisparticularlyconcerned,hesaid,thatthePalestinianAuthoritycouldcollapsethat,inthe
event,theP.A.sthirtythousandsecurityofficerswouldscatterandthatchaosandincreasinglyviolentclasheswithIsrael
wouldfollow.

IunderstandthepassionsthatarebehindallofthisIgetit,Kerrytoldme.Ifitwereeasy,itwouldhavebeendonea
longtimeago.Ihappentobelievethereisawayforward.Theresasolution.ItwouldbegoodforIsraelitdbegreatfor
thePalestiniansitdbegreatfortheregion.Peoplewouldmakesomuchmoney.Theredbesomanyjobscreated.There
couldbepeace.Andyouwouldbestrongerforit.BecausenobodythatIknoworhavemetintheWestBankisanxiousto
havejihadiscomein.

Thealternativeisyousitthereandthingsjustgetworse,Kerrywenton.TherewillbemoreHezbollah.Therewillbe
morerockets.Andtheyllallbepointedinonedirection.Andtherewillbemorepeopleontheborder.Andwhathappens
then?Youregoingtobeonebigfortress?Imean,thatsnotawaytolive.Itseemstomeitisfarmoreintelligentandfar
morestrategicwhichisanimportantwordheretohaveatheoryofhowyouaregoingtopreservetheJewishstateand
beademocracyandabeacontotheworldthateverybodyenvisionedwhenIsraelwascreated.

IaskedhimifhecouldimagineanendtotheStateofIsrael.

No,Idontbelievethatsgoingtohappen,hesaid.Itsjust,Whatisitgoingtobelike,isthequestion.Willitbea
democracy?WillitbeaJewishstate?Orwillitbeaunitarystatewithtwosystems,orsomedraconiantreatmentof
Palestinians,becausetoletthemvotewouldbetodilutetheJewishstate?Idontknow.Ihavenoanswertothat.Butthe
problemis,neitherdothey.Neitherdothepeoplewhoaresupposedtobeprovidinganswerstothis.Itisnotananswerto
simplycontinuetobuildintheWestBankandtodestroythehomesoftheotherfolksyouretryingtomakepeacewithand
pretendthatthatsasolution.

Intheevening,KerryflewfromBerlintoVienna,where,inmeetingswithhisRussian,Turkish,andSaudicounterparts,the
focuswouldturntoSyria.SomeofthereportersontheStateDepartmentbeatrecallwithnostalgiaatimewhenColin
PowellandCondoleezzaRiceregularlycametothebackoftheplanetobriefthem,oftenontherecord.Kerryisproneto
senatorialover-talkandtheoccasionalgafferecently,hehadtowalkbackaninfelicitousstatementthattherewasa
rationaletothemurdersoftheCharlieHebdostaff,asopposedtothemorerecentattacksinParis.WhiteHouseofficials
havemadeitclearthathisboutsofverbalindisciplineareunwelcome,andhistripstothebackoftheplaneareless
frequent.Recently,attheSabanForum,aMiddleEastconferenceinWashington,D.C.,MartinIndyk,Kerrysformeraide,
interviewedhimonstageandbeganbysaying,withasmile,thathewouldbetheonlyoneaskingquestions,becauseKerrys
stafferswereworriedaboutyouranswers.

TheStateDepartmentbeatistrying.Thereportersaresardinedintothebackoftheplaneforendlessflightsand,upon
arrival,spendhourswaitinginhotelandairportholdingrooms,interruptedbyburstsofstenography.WhileKerrymetwith
SergeiLavrov,hisRussiancounterpart,attheHotelImperial,wepeckedatthebirdseedofthepoolreport,acoupleof
preciselyquotednon-quotes.Thepoolreporterconcludedwiththisplaintivenote:Thatsit.Myrecorderwasrunningfora
totaloftwenty-twoseconds.

Butthetalkswereofrealsignificance.Kerrywastryingtopersuadehisinterlocutors,especiallytheSaudis,ofthewisdom
ofincludingIran,whichhasworkedwiththeRussianstopropupAssad,infuturetalks.ThedevelopmentsinSyriawere
clearenough:atleasttwohundredthousanddead,fourmillionrefugees,millionsmoredisplaced.Theregimebackedby
Iraniantroops,Hezbollahguerrillas,Russianairstrikesonrebeloutposts,andsupportfromtheIraqiShiitemilitiashas
regaineditsfootingandmaintainsaholdoveruptotwo-thirdsofthepopulation.ISISisunderincreasingattackfrom
coalitionairstrikesandKurdishgroundtroops,butithasmovedthefightabroad.
 Yourerighttheshippingisntfree.Theyvefoldedthe
expenseintothecostoftheitem.Buytheprint

ThedispiritingrealityofAmericanforeignpolicyinthetwenty-firstcenturyhasbeenneatlysummarizedinPoliticobyPhilip
Gordon,theformerN.S.C.official:InIraq,theU.S.intervenedandoccupied,andtheresultwasacostlydisaster.In
Libya,theU.S.intervenedanddidnotoccupy,andtheresultwasacostlydisaster.InSyria,theU.S.neitherintervenednor
occupied,andtheresultisacostlydisaster.Someforeign-policyexperts,fromLeonPanetta,theformerC.I.A.director,to
RichardHaass,thepresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,predictthattheconflictsthathaveemergedfromtheArab
uprisingswillleadtoaThirtyYearsWar,aprotracted,regionalbloodlettingreminiscentofthereligiouswarsinCentral
EuropethatbeganwiththefragmentationoftheHolyRomanEmpire,in1618.

TheviolentswirlofuncertaintiesbringsoutthePresidentsnativecaution.ThemostconsequentialpoliticalactofObamas
earlycareerwasabriefappearance,in2002,atanantiwardemonstrationinFederalPlaza,indowntownChicago,wherehe
declaredthattheimpendinginvasionofIraqwasdumbandwouldrequireaU.S.occupationofundeterminedlength,at
undeterminedcost,withundeterminedconsequences.ThatspeechsethimapartfrombothKerryandClinton,who,as
senators,votedtogiveBushtherighttouseforceinIraq,anditsettheideologicaltemplateforhisforeignpolicy,notleast
onSyria.ValiNasr,aformerStateDepartmentadvisertoHillaryClintonandRichardHolbrooke,toldme,Obamahasnt
changedhispositionfrom2011.Heisalwaysconcernedthatitsafoolserrand,aslipperyslopetoanotherIraq,pouring
bloodandtreasureintoanotherconflict.

KerryssenioraidesarenothesitanttosaythatbothaschairmanoftheSenateForeignRelationsCommitteeandas
SecretaryofStatehehasdisagreedstronglywithObamaonSyria.Obamaprioritizesavoidinganyentanglementswhereit
isuncertainthatsuchaninterventionwillwork,aStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.Kerry,whoseesthatthecrisishas
threatenedthestabilityofJordan,Lebanon,andotherstatesintheregionandhasprovidedISISwithabase,inRaqqaand
Ramadi,has,theofficialsaid,muchmorefaithinourabilitytoavoidaslipperyslope.

FromthebeginningofthecivilianuprisingsinSyria,in2011,andtheregimesescalatingandbloodyreaction,manyof
Obamasadvisershavearguedforamoreaggressivepolicy:armingandfundingthemoderaterebelsairstrikeson
DamascustakingoutAssadshelicoptersandplanes,whichdropbarrelbombspackedwithshrapnel,explosives,and,
sometimes,chlorinetheestablishmentofsafezonesandano-flyzone.In2012,theC.I.A.director,DavidPetraeusthe
chairmanoftheJointChiefs,GeneralMartinDempseySecretaryofDefenseLeonPanettaSamanthaPower,whowas
thenanational-securityadviserandSecretaryofStateClintonpressedObamatosupportvettedrebelsagainsttheregime.
Kerrywhowasinfluencedbytherelativelysuccessful,ifbelated,interventionsintheBalkans,inthenineties,andalsoby
thecalamitousdecisionnottointerveneinRwandain1994joinedthischoruswhenhereplacedClinton.Butnoonecould
convinceObamathatdeeperinvolvementwouldavoidarepetitionoftheIraqfiasco.

KerrywasacriticalactorinthemosthumblingepisodeoftheSyriandrama.ObamahadwarnedAssadthathewouldbe
crossingaredlineifheusedchemicalweapons,sayingthatsuchanactwouldchangemycalculus.InAugust,2013,a
yearaftertheredlinewarning,Assadsforces,accordingtoWesternintelligenceservicesandanindependentU.N.
commission,firedrocketsarmedwithsarinonGhouta,asuburbofDamascus,killinghundreds.TheU.S.preparedto
attackwithcruisemissiles.InaspeechinsistingthatAssadgiveupallhischemicalarms,Kerryreferredtothelessonsof
theHolocaustandofRwanda.GeneralDempseysaid,Ourfingerwasonthetrigger.ObamawarnedofanAmerican
attack,althoughKerry,followingthePresidentsminimizinglead,allowedthatthestrikewouldbeunbelievablysmall.
Then,withoutconsultingKerry,Obamasteppedback,sayingthathewouldhavetogetcongressionalapprovalbeforean
attackonSyria.Hehadconcludedthatitwasworsetogotowarthantobeseenasweak.

ObamasaidessaythatthedebatesoverSyriaarealwaysoverthecostofanactionversusthecostofinaction.Ben
Rhodes,adeputynational-securityadviser,toldme,ThePresidenthasspentmoretimeonSyriathanonanyotherissuein
theSituationRoom,oftentestingdifferenttheoriesandpropositions.Butnoonehaseverbeenabletoanswerthesecond
andthirdquestions:IfyoudoX,thenwhat?IfyouweretotakemoreassertivemilitaryactionagainstAssad,whathappens
thedayafter,whenAssadisstillinplaceandwehavenotengagedmilitarilyevenmorerobustly?Theresanexpectationto
seeitthrough.ThereisanescalatorylogicthatleadstheU.S.totakeresponsibilityforSyria.Hesopentodifferent
proposals,butwheredotheylead?

WhenIspokewithPresidentObamalastyear,hemadeasimilarpoint.Itisverydifficulttoimagineascenarioinwhich
ourinvolvementinSyriawouldhaveledtoabetteroutcome,shortofusbeingwillingtoundertakeaneffortinsizeand
scopesimilartowhatwedidinIraq,hesaid.AndwhenIhearpeoplesuggestingthatsomehowifwehadjustfinanced
andarmedtheoppositionearlier,thatsomehowAssadwouldbegonebynowandwedhaveapeacefultransition,its
magicalthinking.

NearlyeveryoneItalkedtointheAdministrationconsideredtheredlineaftermathtobeadiplomaticfiasco.TheSyrian
governmentdid,however,giveupitsmainchemicalstockpileswhenitsallyRussiasteppedinandpressuredittodoso.
SergeiLavrov,theforeignminister,workedwithKerrytoclosethedeal.Meanwhile,Assadremainsinpower.The
Administration,whichstartedoutsayingthathemuststepaside,isnowwillingtoseeAssadplayatransitionalroleina
politicalsettlementbeforeleavingthestageatanundeterminedpoint.AsoneabashedU.S.officialtoldme,Themeaningof
Assadhastogohasevolved.

SohasKerrysviewofAssad.In2010,beforetheArabuprisings,KerrymetseveraltimeswithAssadinDamascus,at
Obamasrequest.TheAdministrationwantedKerrytoseewhatkindofSyrian-Israeliagreementhecouldhelpforge.Assad
expressedconcernthattheeconomicisolationofSyria,anditscripplingunemployment,wasbuildingupenormousstrain
andthattheregimecouldfalltoafundamentalist-ledrevolt.WalidMuallem,Assadsforeignminister,toldoneofKerrys
aides,Ifwedontsucceedinopeningupoureconomy,youllcomebackhereintenyearsandyoullmeetwithMullah
Assad.

AssadtoldKerrythat,inordertomakepeacewithIsrael,hehadtogetbacktheGolanHeights,territorylostinthe1967
war.Forthattobeconsidered,Kerryreplied,SyriawouldhavetoceasethetransitofarmsthroughSyriatoHezbollah,in
Lebanon,andtoHamas,inGaza.

Webasicallydeliveredhimaprettystrongmessageof,Youbetterstopthisorelse,Kerrytoldme.ButIalsoengaged
withhim,becausehewantedtotalkaboutanothersubjectarelationshipwithIsraelinthefuture.IdontthinkIveever
talkedaboutthispublicly,buthewasreadytomakeadealwithIsrael.AndtheproofofthatisaletterIstillhavethathe
wroteandsignedproposingastructurebywhichhewaswillingtorecognizeIsrael,haveanembassythere,makepeace,
dealwiththeGolan,etcetera.(ArepresentativeoftheSyriangovernmentdeniedthatAssadeverwrotesuchaletterhe
alsodeniedthatAssadtookanyoppressivemeasuresin2011.)SyriaaskedKerryforeconomicassistance,includinga
pipelinetoIraqandaidfortechnologyandhealthcare.WhenNetanyahuwastoldofthediscussions,hewasreluctant.Bibi
cametoWashington,andoneofthefirstthingsoutofhismouthintheOvalOfficewasIcantdothis.Imnotgoingto
Ijustcant.
 Oh,thosearethelobbyistswhogetusourgovernment
subsidies.Buytheprint

TheissuewasrenderedmootinMarch,2011,whentherevolutionbeganinSyria.AstheSyrianregimeincreaseditslevel
ofcrueltyfrommonthtomonthbeginningwiththepolicetorturingyoungprotestersandmovingontotheindiscriminate
killingofmanythousands,usingbarrelbombsalltalkofthesoft-spokenBritish-educatedophthalmologist,ofAssadas
thereformisthopeofSyria,waseclipsed.

Kerryshookhisheadatthememoryofit.AtdinnerinDamascus,AssadhadtoldKerryandHeinzabouthowhismother
couldnolongergotoalocalmosquedressedinaskirt.Hetalkedabouthowfemalecollegeclassmates,professional
women,werenowinhijab.Wewanttobeasecularcountry,Assadsaid,accordingtoKerry.Wedontwanttobe
inundatedbythis.

Kerrywenton,Ihadanimpressionthatthisguyhadseriousbusinessplans,growthplans,developmentplans,wantedto
change.WhenIpressedhimtodescribeAssadintermsofhiscrimes,hebackedoff.Youknowwhat?Iwanttotryto
talkcommonsensetohimthroughthisprocess,andIdonotwanttogetintoanyitsjusttheinappropriatemomentfor
meto...

BothKerryandHeinzsaidtheyhadheardfromtheirSyriansourcesthatAssadsmotherorhisbrother,Maheral-Assad,the
familyenforcerfigureandanArmygeneralwhocommandstheliteFourthArmoredDivisionandtheRepublicanGuard,
urgedBashartocrackdownhardontheprotestersotherwise,thefamilyandtheAlawiteregimewerefinished.Kerry
thinksofAssadasthetoxicproductofhisfamilyandhispoliticalenvironment,akindofrationalautocratwhosetoutto
reformhiscountrybut,whenfacedwiththeprospectofjoiningthelistofdeposedArabdictators,actedinthepredictably
monstrouswayofhisfather,who,in1982,slaughteredtwentythousandpeopleinthecityofHamatoputdownaMuslim
Brotherhooduprising.

Assad,Kerrysaid,madeenormous,giganticmistakes,andIthinktheyaredisqualifyingmistakes.Kerrycontinuestouse
bloodlesstermslikemistakesbecausehehopeshewillsoonbedealingwithAssadeitherthroughRussiaandIranor
throughthemedia,orevenanegotiatingteamfromDamascus.Eitherway,hisjob,asheseesit,istopersuade.The
AmericanpositionisstillthatAssadmustgo,but,inordertokeepRussiaandIraninthediscussion,ObamaandKerryhave
fudgedthequestionofwhen.

IbelieveSyriacanbeputbacktogetherstill,Kerrytoldme.ButIthinkthisisthelastshottotrytodoit.Ithinkthatif
youcantdothisitcouldbreakupintoenclavesandIraqcouldImean,youcouldseealotofthingshappen.Thisisnot
theThirtyYearsWartoday.But,ifallowedtofesterunabatedbythepeaceprocessorbyasolution,thiscouldbecomea
kindofThirtyYearsWar,becauseitcoulddevelopintoabona-fide,full-fledgedSunni-Shiaconflagration.

ViennaisasceneofsatisfactionforKerry.ItiswherehesigneddocumentsforanuclearsettlementwithMohammedJavad
Zarif,Iransforeignminister.ObamahadrampedupeconomicsanctionsandlaunchedcyberattacksagainstIranwell
beforeKerryjoinedtheAdministration,butwhenKerrywasstillasenatorhewasinvolvedinaseriesofsecretAmerican-
Iranianmeetings,brokeredbySultanQaboosbinSaid,ofOman,whichpreparedtheway.

Thetensioninthenegotiatingroomswassometimesunbearable.OppositiontothetalksragedfromJerusalemtoCapitol
Hill,andZarifmadeitknown,bothasatacticandasamatteroffact,thathefacedimmensepressureinTehranfromhard-
linerswhowantedtobreakoffnegotiations.Thesubtextallalongwaspossiblewar,theStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.
Itwasdiscussedopenly.DuringoneexchangeinLausanne,whenthetwosideswerearguingoverFordow,asecret
undergrounduranium-enrichmentsite,Kerryasked,Whydoyoucaresomuch?Youhavefacilitieselsewhere.

ZarifsaidthattheFordowinstallation,whichwasbuiltunderamountainnearthecityofQom,wasaninsurancepolicyin
caseIsraelortheUnitedStatesattackedIransothersites.Kerryreplied,Idontwanttobecrudeaboutit,butthatwont
saveyou.TheAmericansintheroomknewthatKerrywasreferringtoathirty-thousand-poundbombcalledtheMassive
OrdnancePenetrator,whichiscapableofdestroyingafacilitylikeFordow.

Theagreementcould,intime,collapseifIraniscaughtviolatingit,butObamaandKerryweremakingabetthattheycould
bothpreventanuclearIranandempowermoremodernelementsintheIranianliteswhomay,afterthepassingofAli
Khamenei,theSupremeLeader,andhishard-linecadreofayatollahs,liberalizetheregime.

InVienna,inthegaudy,chandelieredhauntsoftheImperial,Kerrywasnowtryingtobuildonthattreaty.Afteralongday,
heemergedfromhissessionswiththeRussians,Turks,andSaudismutteringsomediplomaticwordglobules:themeetings
wereconstructiveandproductiveandsucceededinsurfacingsomeideas,whichIamnotgoingtosharetoday,andwarm
congratulationstoAustriaontheoccasionofitsnationalday,and,asforhowlongAssadwillstayinpower,wecanagree
todisagree.

Thetalksweremoreeventfulthanheleton.Asalways,sometimehadtobeallottedforposturingandventing.Adelal-
Jubeir,theSaudiforeignminister,repeatedlyremindedtheroomofAssadsbutchery,referringtohimHomericallyasthe
manwhoskilledthreehundredthousandpeople.Lavrov,theRussianforeignminister,scoffedattheideaofamoderate
oppositionandrefusedtoacceptaspecifictimelineforAssadtostepdown.AnditwouldnotbeapartyiftheRussiansdid
notremindeveryoneofthechaoscreatedbytheAmericaninvasionofIraq.

Ihearitallthetime,Kerrytoldme.IhearitfromLavrov.Imean,weworkprofessionallyandwegoatthingsina
constructiveway,buthedoesntletmeforgetLibyaorEgyptorIraq,andthecolorrevolutionsinUkraine,Georgia,
andotherstateswheretheKremlinleadershipbelievestheU.S.hasfomentedrevolt.Irollwithit,butitsimportantto
understandit.Imean,ifyouregoingtotrytoworksomethingwithRussia,youneedtounderstandthedegreetowhich
thesethingsmatter.

Thefarragoofcompetingnationalinterests,thelegaciesofhistoricalblunders,thefantasticalcastofcharacters,thesheer
bloodlust,theprospectofregionalifnotglobalconflictallconspiretomakeKerrystaskinSyrianearlyimpossible.But
now,afteryearsofmoribunddiplomacyinthefaceofhorrificbloodshedandwavesofterrifiedrefugees,heseemedtobe
makingincrementalprogress.Notonlywereheandhisnegotiatingpartnerstalkingtheywerealsoheadingtowardgetting
Iranintheroom.Agatheringofagroupofunthinkablecountries,Lavrovcalledit.

Certainly,therewasagreatersenseofurgencyinWashington,inMoscow,inEurope,andintheGulf.TheIrannuclear
deal,despiteoppositioninIsrael,inSaudiArabia,andintheU.S.Congress,boostedthecredibilityofAmericandiplomacy,
andofKerryinparticular.VladimirPutininordertopropuptheSyrianregime,regainleverageintheMiddleEast,and
restoreasenseofpost-SovietRussiaasaworldpowerhasreturnedinforcetotheSyrianissue,unleashingwarplaneson
rebelpositions,inthenameofthefightagainstISIS.Withterrorattacksabroadandtheinfluxofhundredsofthousandsof
refugees,theSyriancrisisisnolongeraforeignmatterforEuropeortheUnitedStatesithascometoseemamatterof
nationalsecurity.
 Frankly,wereataloss,sowerelookingforsomeone
youngandstupidtotelluswhattodo.Buytheprint

Backontheplane,Kerrysatperchedontheedgeofhisbed,andtoldme,Weretryingtobreakacrazystalemate.There
wasawearydesperationinhisexpression.HeknewthattheRussiansandtheIranianscouldnotendorsetheideathat
Assadwasfinishedeveniftheybelievedthat,ultimately,hewas.Therecould,however,betalksaboutpolitical
transition.Noone,Kerrywassaying,wantedthegovernmentinstitutionstocrash,thewaytheyhadinIraq.And,if
youdontwantthegovernmenttocrash,youcanthaveAssadgoboom.

KerrycouldnotyetknowthetruemotivationofPutinandtheIranianleadershipinagreeingtosendemissariestotalksin
Vienna:Aretheythereonlytoprop[Assad]upandforever,oraretheytherehelpingtotrytoengineersomethingto
happen?AndsoIvebeentryingtoputthattothetest.

Finally,hisvoicegaveoutIcouldnolongerhearhimabovetheenginesofthejet,andheappearedtobeinpain.He
wincedbywayoffarewellandleftmetoreturntothebackoftheplane.

WhenKerrywasappointedbyObamatoheadtheStateDepartment,hemadeapointofmeetingwithhispredecessors.As
ayoungman,hedloathedHenryKissinger.Tohim,theNixonAdministrationrepresentedallthatwasmostcynicalabout
Americanpolitics.

KerryreturnedfromVietnamadecoratedveteranand,ashetoldtheTimes,anangryyoungman.Hebecamealeaderof
VietnamVeteransAgainsttheWar,and,withhisforthrightstyleofconfessionandoutrage,hewontheadmirationof
antiwarleaders.OnMeetthePress,Kerrysaidthathehadcommittedthesamekindofatrocitiesasthousandsofother
soldiershavecommitted:shootingsinfree-firezones,harassment,search-and-destroymissions,theburningofvillages.
Wearinghisfatiguesandhisdecorations,Kerrytestified,inApril,1971,fortwohoursbeforetheSenateForeignRelations
Committee,andaskedaquestionthatwasquotedaroundtheworld:Howdoyouaskamantobethelastmantodiein
Vietnam?Howdoyouaskamantobethelastmantodieforamistake?

Kerrysaid,SomeonehastodiesoPresidentNixonwontbe,andthesearehiswords,thefirstPresidenttoloseawar.
TheNixonAdministration,hesaid,hasdoneustheultimatedishonor.Theyhaveattemptedtodisownusandthesacrifices
wemadeforthiscountry.
Nixonwasrepelledand,atsomelevel,impressed.Talkingonthephonewithhiscounsel,CharlesColson,hesaidthatKerry
wassortofaphony,isnthe?ButevenH.R.Haldeman,Nixonschiefofstaff,toldthePresident,Hedidasuperbjobon
itattheForeignRelationsCommitteeyesterday.AKennedy-typeguy,helookslikeaKennedy,andhe,hetalksexactlylikea
Kennedy.

ButwhileKerrymadehisnameinaradicalvoice,hewasalwaysamanoftheestablishment.Morethananydiplomator
politicianthissideofBillClinton,hehasanabidingfaithinthevalueofpersonalrelationshipsandofhiscapacityto
persuade.Allhehastodoisgetthepartiesinaroomandhecantlose.Obama,bycontrast,hasnomorecultivated
relationshipswithforeignleadersthanhehaswithRepublicanleaders.WhereObamaisskeptical,Kerryisalmost
sentimentalinhisoptimism.HehasevenmadehispeacewithHenryKissinger:Iseekhisadvicehesabrilliantguy.He
recountedalunchthattheyhadrecently,atwhichKissingertoldhim,ThedifferencebetweenyouandmeisthatIthink
thatpersonalrelationsdontmattermuch.Ithinkinterestsmatter.Kerryreplied,Ithinkinterestsmatter,ofcourse,butI
thinkpersonalrelationscanhelpmatterstheycanbeinfluential.

NooneseemstoinspireKerrysoutrage,includingtheworstofhisnegotiatingpartners.Ithinktheywanttobevaluedfor
whotheyareandunderstoodforwheretheycomefromandwhattheirlifeisabout,hetoldme.Ithinkifpeoplehavea
sensethatyouknowwhattheyreabout,theycanbuildsometrustwithyou....Ithinkifyoucanshowthemthatyou
understandwhattheirchallengeis,howtheyhavetosellitathomeorhowtheyhaveto,whatitmeans,thesacrificethey
mighthavetomaketodoX,Y,orZ.

Asasenator,Kerry,whogrewupworshippingJ.F.K.,initiallysufferedthroughavexedrelationshipwithhisseniorpartner,
EdwardKennedy.TheKennedypeopleprivatelymockedKerryasstiff,pompous,ashowhorse,asMichaelJaneway,the
formereditoroftheBostonGlobe,oncedescribedKerrytohisface.TheKerrypeopleresentedKennedyforgrabbing
creditforeveryjointinitiative.But,withtime,KerrygainedrespectintheSenate,particularlyforseriousworkonissues
rangingfromforgingdiplomaticrelationswithVietnam(alongwithJohnMcCain)tohisinvestigationintothewaytheBank
ofCreditandCommerceInternationalhelpedGeneralManuelNoriega,ofPanama,launderhisdrugmoney.

SometimesKerrycouldplaymaddeninglytotype.Duringthe2004campaign,aninterviewerforGQaskedhim,Whats
thebestbottleofwineyouveeverhad?AslickerpolmighthavementionedasuperbFloridaMerlotoranunforgettable
OhioPinot,butevenanovicewouldknowtochooseadomesticwine,preferablyoneinabattlegroundstate.Probablya
Latour1961,Kerryanswered,thusassuringhiscampaigntheBordeauxprimary.

Butheishardlyaprep-schoolcartoon.Duringthecampaign,forexample,theGlobediscoveredboththatKerrys
grandfatherwasJewishandthathecommittedsuicide,twofactsthatKerryhadbeenunawareof.Hisfamilycamefrom
distinguishedlineagesbuthadlittlemoney.Kerrysfirstmarriagewastroubledhiswife,JuliaThorne,sufferedfromsevere
depressionandwrotethathermindwasravagedbycorrodingvoices,mybodydefeatedbybone-rattlingpanics,Isaton
theedgeofmybedminutesfromtakingmylife.WhenhewasseparatedfromThorne,KerryhadwhatTeresawouldcall
hisgypsyperiod,withnofixedaddress,hustlingtoseehistwodaughters,inBoston,whilehewasworkingin
Washington.(Thornediedofcancerin2006.)

OneofthegoverningclichsaboutKerryisthathisfourmonthsofcombatinVietnamandhisreturnasaleaderofthe
antiwar-veteransmovementshapedhiscareerasalegislatorandadiplomat.Kerrytoldmethewarshowedhimthatwe
canmakesometerriblemistakeswhenwedontthinkitthroughright.IcanrememberbeinginVietnamwatchingMelvin
Laird,SecretaryofDefense,flyingovermeaswewentdowntodosomecompletelystagedinvasionbecausetheoriginal
invasionplacehadtoomanyVietcong.Thesekindsofthingsstickoutatyou.ItsthereasonthatJosephHellerandCatch-
22haveparticularmeaningforalotofus.

WhatVietnamdidnotinstillinKerryisasenseofideologicalconsistency.CampaigningfortheSenatein1984,hedeclared
thathewouldhavevotedtocanceltheB-1bomber,theF-15,theTridentmissilesystem,andmanyotherweaponssystems,
onlytosaylaterthatsuchvoteswouldhavebeenill-advised,evenstupid.HedisagreedwiththeReagan
AdministrationsadventuresinCentralAmericaandGeorgeH.W.Bushsdecisiontobuildaninternationalcoalitionand
repelSaddamHusseinfromKuwait,in1991.ButhesupportedinterventioninKosovoand,in2002,withtorturedlogic,
votedforGeorgeW.BushsinvasionofIraq:Imean,IsupporteddisarmingSaddamHussein,butIwascriticalofthe
Administrationandhowitdiditsdiplomacyandsoforth.Thenhevotedagainsttheeighty-seven-billion-dollar
appropriationtofundreconstruction,aswellasmilitaryoperations,inIraqandAfghanistan.
 Thisnextsongsaboutpain.September5,2005Buythe
print

HealwaystoldmehewantedtobeinformedbyVietnambutneverimprisonedbyit,DavidWade,whowasaSenateaide
toKerryand,untilrecently,hischiefofstaffattheStateDepartment,toldme.Vietnam,rather,wasanemotional
touchstone.OntripswithfriendstotheVietnamMemorial,Kerrypointedouttheengravednamesofsoldierswhodiedafter
theParispeacetalksbegan.Hewouldtalkabouthowpeoplediedwhiletheyarguedovertheshapeofthenegotiating
table,Waderecalled.

IfIraqandthegeneralfailureoftheArabSpringtaughtKerryanything,itisagreaterwarinessoftheideaofdemocratic
crusades.Havinganelectiondoesnotmakeademocracy,hetoldme.WelearnedthatwithHamasnottoolongago.And
Idontthinkwevealwayspracticedthatverycarefully,andIthinkweneedtopracticeitverycarefully,frankly.Ifpeople
areonapathandmakinglegitimatemovesandchoices,Imcontenttonotpushthecurvebeyonditsabilitytobend.AndI
thinkwehavetobesmarteraboutthat.

AskedwhethertheidealismofWoodrowWilsonwastoopowerfulastraininAmericanforeignpolicy,hereplied,Yeah,a
littlebit,probably.Imean,IloveWilsonandIloveWilsonianidealism,butitsveryidealistic.

Inthenexttwodays,Kerrykeptuphispace.First,heflewtoAmman,wherehemetwithKingAbdullahandMahmoud
Abbas,thePalestinianleader.NeithertheJordaniansnorthePalestinianswereinanymoodtomeetwithNetanyahu,butthe
issuewasviolenceinJerusalemandtheWestBankand,inKerryspeak,howtobringdownthetemperature.The
meetings,particularlywiththeJordanians,weredelicatetheKingneededtoshowhissubjectsthatheretainedinfluence
overtheTempleMount.AndthepressconferencethatKerryheld,alongsidetheJordanianforeignminister,atanairportin
Amman,wasaneatlychoreographedjigofindirection.Atonepoint,Kerry,whohaddonehisparttoexpressexcruciating
evenhandednessincounsellingboththePalestiniansandtheIsraelistoratchetdowntheincitement,watchedwithstolid
irritationastheJordanianforeignminister,NasserJudeh,staggeredoffscript.Finally,Kerryscribbledanoteandhandedit
toJudeh,whoblinkedafewtimesandwrappedthingsup.Butnotbeforeremarkingontheobvious:Asalwaysinthispart
oftheworld,thingshaveatendencytoerupt.

ThepressconferencedidnotrevealthatKerryandJudehhadcalledNetanyahuandpersuadedhimtodeclarepubliclythat
theIsraeligovernmenthadnointentionofchangingthestatusoftheTempleMountwhichhedidinavideoonFacebook.
ButthiswasonlyafterhoursofcajolingandflyspeckingstatementswithNetanyahuandhisaidesaprocessthatcaused
theStateDepartmentofficialtojokethathehadaP.T.S.D.flashbackfromthefailed2013-14peacetalks.

Kerrywalkedtohisplane,whichtookoffintothedarkeningskyforSaudiArabia.Wearrivedlateintheevening,which
wasperfect,becauseSaudiofficials,likemoonflowers,bloomatnight.Theforeignminister,Adelal-Jubeir,greetedKerry
onthetarmac.Therewasanappropriatelymasculineembrace,thepoolreporternoted.Theyeachgrabbedtheothers
upperarm.AndthetraditionalArabkissoneachcheek,thoughtherewasnoactualskincontact.Youcouldsayitwasmore
ofanairkiss.

Aftertalkingforawhileattheairport,KerryandJubeirgotincarsandheadedtoDiriyahFarm,thecountryresidenceof
theSaudiking,Salman.SalmanhasbeenonthethroneonlysincethedeathofAbdullah,inJanuary,butheisseventy-nine
andinspottyhealthhereadshistalkingpointsoffaniPad.Intelligenceagenciesarealreadyatworktryingtosortoutwho
mightsucceedhim.

KerryenteredanopulentreceptionareathatthepoolreporteraptlydescribedasasunkenlivingroomthesizeofanN.H.L.
rink.Aidesinrobessatalongthewalls.Glanceatthemen,thepoolernoted,andyouknowthatithasbeenalongtime
sinceRichardBurtonthenineteenth-centuryBritishexplorerobservedthathehadneverseenafatmaninthedesert.
Finally,KerrymettheKing,inasmallerroom.

Imhappytoseeyou,theKingsaid,throughhistranslator.

Imhappytoseeyou,Kerryreplied.Thisismyfavoritepalace.Ilovethisplace.

Thisisouroriginalhometown,theKingsaid.

WhenKerrybecameSecretary,theSaudiswerestillangryattheAdministrationfor,intheireyes,betrayingareliableally-
autocratlikeHosniMubarak.WhatiftheHouseofSaudcametosuchapass?TheSaudiswerealsodismayedbyObamas
reluctancetoattackSyria.Turkial-Faisal,theformerdirectorofSaudiintelligenceandamemberoftheroyalfamily,said,in
2013,thatObamasfailuretofollowthroughonhisredlinewarningwouldbefunnyifitwerenotsoblatantly
perfidious.

Thefocusofthemeeting,forKerry,wastonaildownwhathadbeenraisedinViennathedaybefore,persuadingtheKing
toincludeIraninthetalksonSyria.TheKingssecuritycouncilincludingtheforeignminister,theCrownPrince,the
deputyCrownPrince,theheadofintelligencelistenedintentlyasthetwomentalked.Salmanseemedtoleavethequestion
ofIranalittlemoreopenandtoldKerrythatheshouldnowmeetwiththesecurityteam.Kerrysteamwashopeful,
thinkingthatSalmanhadgiventhemroomtomaneuver.

WiththeKinggone,theSaudiadvisers,despitetheirritualexpressionsofdistasteforIran,agreedtobeinthesameroom
withZarifatfuturemeetingsinVienna.Thiswouldnotbefirst-levelnewsaroundtheworld,necessarily,andthewarwent
on,andthewavesofrefugeeskeptarrivinginJordanandTurkeyandontheshoresofLesvos.But,forKerry,thesewere
thekindsofmovesapawnseizingacentersquarethatjustmightleadtoanendgame.

TheflightfromRiyadhtoAndrewswasscheduledtotakefifteenhours,witharefuellingstopinIreland.AtShannon,the
planepulleduptoadesertedterminal.DressedinjeansandaYalehoodie,Kerrysettleddownatatablenearthebarand
orderedahottoddyandaplateofsalmonsandwiches.

Damn,thesearegood,hesaid.

Theproprietorofthebar,whointroducedhimselfasDeclan,presentedKerrywithabottleofIrishwhiskeyandadramof
advice.

MyfatherdiedwhenIwasjustafewyearsoldandmymotherdidntdrink,Declansaid,butwheneverIwassickshe
wouldtakeaspoonfulofthisandputitinhotwater.Workslikeacharm.

Kerrysmiledprofessionally,buthewaslongpastcharminganyone.Hewasexhausted,andtherewaslittlelefttohisvoice.
YethekepttalkingashestoleglancesataManchesterUnitedgameontheTVabovethebar,heobsessedaboutthenext
weekstriptoVienna,theplayersatthetable,whatwaspossible.

Asadiplomat,HillaryClintonwinscreditinsidetheAdministrationforvisitingahundredandtwelvecountriesandhelpingto
transformAmericasimageintheworldafterthecatastrophicBushyears.SheledeffortstoopenrelationswithBurma,
brokereda2012ceasefirebetweenIsraelandHamasinGaza,anddraftedeconomicsanctionsonIran.Butshewasas
restrainedinherambitionsasshewasdisciplined.Kerry,bycontrast,isconsideredrelentless,sometimestoafault.Thereis
noconcealinghiseagernesstomakeadealtoacritic,hisstyleisreminiscentofthecustomerwhosternlytellsthe
salesman,Imnotleavinghereuntilyousellmeacar.

Mycareerdoesntreflectwhatmypassionsareasmuchas
wheremyhealthinsuranceis.December19,2005Buythe
print

BenRhodes,thedeputynational-securityadviser,saidthatthePresidentappreciatesKerryswillingnesstodiveinwithout
knowinghowthestoryisgoingtoend.YourenotgoingtoachieveanIrandealwithoutthat.Kerryhatesbeingcutoutof
theaction.Hewas,Rhodesadmitted,annoyedthattheopeningtoCubathisyearhadalmostnothingtodowiththeState
Department.Thatwastheonlywayitwasgoingtogetdone,Rhodessaid.ThatwastheCubanpreference.They
wantedtodealwiththeWhiteHouse.

ButifthereistobeanykindofdiplomaticprogressinSyriaitwilldependlargelyonKerryandhisnegotiatingpartners.A
weekafterprevailingontheSaudistositatthesametablewithIran,hereturnedtoVienna.Multilateralmeetings
customarilybeginwitharoundofopeningstatementsfromeverypartyintheroom,andZarifandJubeir,theIranianand
Saudiforeignministers,laidbaretheirradicallydifferentnarratives.IntalkswiththeU.S.,ZarifhadremindedKerryofthe
C.I.A.sroleinthe1953overthrowofMohammedMossadegh,theIranianPrimeMinister,andnowheremindedJubeirthat
fifteenofthe9/11hijackerswerefromSaudiArabia.Jubeir,forhispart,hadalreadyremarkedonIransroleinterrorismin
theregion.TheAmericansmighthavefoundallthisamusinghaditnotbeenreminiscentoftheworstmomentsofthe
nucleartalks.WhenthesubjectshiftedtoSyria,theatmospherehardlylightened.Thetwoblamedeachotherforfomenting
fundamentalismandexploitingthechaoseverywhereintheregion.

Severaltimes,theAmericandelegationwonderedifZariforJubeirorbothwouldwalkout.Astheafternoonworeon,one
foreignminister,whowasgrowingexasperated,turnedtooneofKerrysaidesandsaid,Whenishishardstop?
meaning,whendoesKerryhavetoleaveforhisnextflight?

Notuntilten,theaidesaid.

Theforeignministersighed.Themeetinglastedsevenhours.

Thevictoriesweresmall.Inthecommuniqu,IranandSaudiArabiaallowedthemselvestobelistedtogetherasparticipants
afirst.Thedocumentalsocarrieddog-whistlelanguageabouttransitioninSyriabutwithoutatimelineforAssads
departure.ItmentionedtheneedtopreservetherightsofallSyrians,whichwasmeanttoassuretheAlawiteminority,
whichrulesSyria,thattherewouldbenoslaughterifAssadgivesuppower.AnyelectionwouldhavetoincludetheSyrian
diaspora,whichwouldlowerAssadsoddsofwinning.

Thereiseveryreasontobeskepticalabouttheeffort.WhatroleswillthewarringpartiesinSyriaplay?HowcanRussiaand
TurkeypossiblywalktowardacommongoalaftertheTurksshotdownaRussianbomber?Therebelsaredeeplyfractured
whatsinthetalksforthem?Whorepresentsthem?UnderwhatcircumstanceswouldAssad,who,thankstoRussia,is
nowinastrongerposition,stepaside?IfheisreplacedbyanotherfigureintheAlawiteregime,whywouldSunnifactions
acceptthatperson?And,ifthereareelections,whatwouldhappenifAssadtheultimaterecruitingtoolforISISwins?
WhywouldthejihadimilitiaJabhatal-Nusralaydownarms?

Therewillbemoremeetingsinhotelconferencerooms,asthewarcontinuesandISISmakesitsplans.But,asKerrysteam
wasquicktopointout,thishadbeenacompletelymoribundareaofdiplomacyfortheprevioustwoyears.Whenthe
meetingendedandKerryreadoutthelanguageofthecommuniqu,therewasapplause.

Notcelebratory,exactly,butsignificant,oneaidetoldme.Wellseewhereitgoes.

Intheweekssince,Kerryhasremainedaloft.Oneday,hisplanesettledinSamarkand,wherehepatientlyenduredaforty-
five-minutelecturefromthedictatorofUzbekistan.Thenextday,hewasinAshgabat,thesurreal,peoplelesscapitalof
Turkmenistan,ahermeticstatewherethepost-Sovietdictatorrenamedthedaysoftheweekanddevotedanationaldayto
themuskmelon.KerryhadflowntoSantiagototakepartinaconferencetosavetheworldsoceans.ThenhewasinParis,
inthewakeoftheterroristattackattheBataclanconcerthall,tojointalksdesignedtorescuetheearthfromoverheatingto
thepointofglobalcatastrophe.

Iabsolutelylovethisjob,hetoldmemorethanonce.Itissomuchfun.

Veryoccasionally,hestealsawaytorelax(togotothegym,toattendtheHarvard-Yalefootballgame)orjusttoreflect.
Whenheretires,Kerrysaid,hellwriteabookandstayinvolvedsomehowinpublicaffairs,particularlyenvironmental
issues.Buthedoesntthinkaboutretirement.ThebutcheryinSyriagoeson,theMiddleEastisinastateofdissolution.At
dinnerathishouse,Kerrywastalkingyetagainabouthisoptimism,theprospectforaceasefire,theendofAssad.Iasked
whatwouldcomenext.TherearentanyThomasJeffersonswaitingtoassumepower.

Idontknow,hesaid.MaybeAlexanderHamiltonis,whoknows?Helaughedandsaidtherewasnoreasonthat
someonefromtheseculareducatedlitecouldnotemerge:IthinkthenotionthattheophthalmologistfromLondonis
somehowtheonlyguywhocanrunSyriaisinsultingtoSyrians.

OnVeteransDay,hewenttoArlingtonNationalCemeterytovisitthegraveofoneoftheclosestfriendshelostinVietnam
RichardPershing,thegrandsonofGeneralJohnJ.Pershing,thecommanderofAmericanforcesduringtheFirstWorld
War.Whenhegotthere,hesawthattherewasacrowdaroundBlackJackPershingsgrave.Ratherthanattractattention,
heduckedbehindatreeandchattedforawhilewithamilitarybuglerwhowastheretoplayTaps.Afterthecrowd
dispersed,Kerrywalkedinhispained,amblingwayalongtherowsofgraves,countlessgraves,stoneafterstonemarking
warafterwar.

Signupforthedailynewsletter:thebestofTheNewYorkereveryday.

Needtostopreading?

Wellsendyouareminder.
 From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 07/08/201602:35:56PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: TerrorismMonitor-VolumeXIV,Issue14

July8,2016VolumeXIV,Issue14

INTHISISSUE:
TURKEY:ISLAMICSTATESHIFTSTACTICSWITHISTANBULATTACK

BANGLADESH:GULSHANATTACKHIGHLIGHTSONLINERADICALIZATION
FEARS

IndiaTreadsaDelicateLineWithState-SponsorshipofAnti-MaoistGroups

SudhaRamachandran

KenyaGamblesonClosureofSomaliRefugeeCamptoHaltal-Shabaab
Attacks

SungutaWest

ForeignAssetsUnderThreat:IsAQIMPreparinganInAmenas-Style
Attack?

JessicaMoody

TURKEY:ISLAMICSTATESHIFTSTACTICSWITHISTANBULATTACK
AlexanderSehmer

AsuicideattackonTurkeysAtatrkInternationalAirportinIstanbulonJune28left
atleast41peopledeadandmorethan230injured.Theattackappearstohave
beencarriedoutbythreesuicidebomberswhoopenedfireonpassengersand
bystandersbeforeblowingthemselvesup.TurkishPrimeMinisterBinaliYildirim
blamedIslamicState(IS)fortheattack.

Althoughsecuritymeasuresattheairport,Europesthirdbusiest,seemtohave
limitedtheimpactoftheattacktoadegree,therewaslittleadvancewarning.
TwentydaysearlierTurkishintelligencereportedlywarnedstateinstitutionsofa
plannedISattackinIstanbultheairportonthelistofpotentialtargetsbutthat
appearstohavebeentheextentofit.

Turkeysintelligenceservicesareusuallybetterinformed,butinthiscaseIS
appearstohavepurposelyinvolvedfewerTurkishoperatives.AkhmedChataev,
theone-armedChechenmilitantandISrecruiter,iswidelythoughthave
mastermindedtheattack.Turkeyhasarrestedabout30peopleinconnectionwith
theattackatleast11ofthemarefromRussiasCaucasusregion.

Continuereadinghere

BANGLADESH:GULSHANATTACKHIGHLIGHTSONLINERADICALIZATION
FEARS
AlexanderSehmer

IslamicState(IS)hasclaimedresponsibilityforthebloodyattackonapopular
cafeintheBangladeshicapitalofDhaka,whichunfoldedoverabout24hourson
July1and2andlefttwentypeopledead.SixgunmenstormedtheHoleyArtisan
BakeryintheGulshandistrictofthecapital,takinghostagesandpromptinga
massivemilitaryoperationthatculminatedinaraidbysecurityforces.

Asthestandoffwiththemilitaryunfolded,IslamicStatequicklyclaimedcreditfor
theattackviaitsAmaqNewsAgency,releasinggruesomeimagesofdead
bodiesthatitclaimedhadbeentakeninsidethecafe.Whentheraidgotunder
way,reportsoffreedhostagesfleeingthescenemadeitseempossibleto
discounttheimagesasISpropaganda.Butwiththediscoveryof20bodiesinthe
aftermath,ISclaimsbecamemuchlesseasytodismiss.Theattackalreadybears
someofthehallmarksofIslamicState.Foreignerswereintentionallytargeted
thecafewasinanareapopularwithexpatriatesandthemajorityofthosekilled
wereforeigners.Theattackersreportedlyselectednon-Muslimsbyhavingthe
hostagesrecitepartsoftheQuran.Iftheimagesareauthentic,thenthegunmenin
thecafewereincontactwithISatthetimeoftheattack,somethingforwhichthey
wouldonlyhaverequiredaninternetconnection.
Continuereadinghere

IndiaTreadsaDelicateLineWithState-SponsorshipofAnti-MaoistGroups
SudhaRamachandran

Indiascontroversialanti-Maoistvigilantegroup,SamajikEktaManch(SEM),has
announceditwilldisband.SetupinDecember2015withthestatedgoalof
riddingChhattisgarhsBastarregionofMaoistsandsupportingthepoliceintheir
work,theSEMhadclaimedtobeapeacefulinitiative.Nevertheless,ithasbeen
accusedofcarryingoutaviolentcampaignagainstrightsactivistsandjournalists
inBastar,thecenterofIndiasMaoistconflict.Inonerecentincident,ajournalist
washoundedoutofBastarforherarticlesonallegedpoliceatrocitiesinanother
incident,anAdivasi(tribal)activistsfacewassmearedwithscalding,corrosive
greaseforcampaigningagainstextra-judicialkillingsandrapesbyBastarpolice.

PolicepatronageoftheSEMhasbeenevident,withSEMleadersboastingof
theirofficialconnections.Theirweaponshavebeentracedbacktopolice
armories,accordingtoBibhuPrasadRoutray,anexpertontheMaoist
conflict. Meanwhile,seniorpoliceofficialshaveattendedthegroupspublic
meetingsandwerecapturedoncameraadmittingtofacilitatingandsupporting
theSEMswork.

MediaaccountsoftheSEMsallegedviolencearelikelyjustthetipoftheanti-
Maoistvigilanteiceberg.Dozensofstate-supportedmilitiasoperateacrossareas
wheretheCommunistPartyofIndiaMaoist(CPI-Maoist),IndiaslargestMaoist
group,isactive.InJharkhand,forinstance,terrorgangsliketheJharkhandJana
MuktiParishadoperatewithimpunity.UnlikeinChhattisgarh,theJharkhandpolice
usebreakawayfactionsoftheCPI-Maoisttowageawaragainsttheparent
outfit.

ContinueReading

KenyaGamblesonClosureofSomaliRefugeeCamptoHaltal-Shabaab
Attacks
SungutaWest

KenyahasannouncedaplantocloseitsDadaabrefugeecamp,theworlds
largestrefugeesettlement, hopingsuchamovewillendattacksbyal-Qaeda-
linkedal-Shabaabfighters,whoNairobihaslongclaimedhaveinfiltratedthe
settlement.

SinceKenyantroopsrolledintoSomaliatofightal-Shabaabin2011,terror
attacksinthecountryhaveincreased,withtheal-Shabaabmilitantstargeting
governmentinstallationsandpolicefacilities,aswellassofttargetssuchas
churches.

Kenyahasexperiencedmorethan100terrorattackssinceitstroopsmovedinto
Somali,withincidentsinthecapitalNairobi,themajorityMuslimareasinthe
coastalregion,thecitiesofMombasaandLamu,andthenortheasternregion
townsofGarissa,Mandera,andWajir.Officialsclaimmanyoftheseattackswere
plannedinDadaab,andforseveralyearsNairobihaswarnedthecamphas
becomeasecuritythreatandanal-Shabaabrecruitmentground.

Asaconsequence,Kenyaintendstoclosethecampandrepatriatethehundreds
ofthousandsofdisplacedSomaliswhohavecongregatedthere.Officialssaythe
planwillseethecampclosedbyNovember,withitsrefugeepopulation
repatriatedeithertoSomaliaoranythird-partycountrythatwillacceptthem,an
exercisethatisexpectedtocostnearly20billionKenyanShillings($198million).

Kenyahasalreadyallocatedfundstotheproject,butthetimetableappears
ambitious.Moreover,ifhandledincorrectly,closingDadaabcouldsendafloodof
desperatepeopleintothearmsofal-Shabaabrecruiters.

ContinueReading

ForeignAssetsUnderThreat:IsAQIMPreparinganInAmenas-Style
Attack?
JessicaMoody

InlateMay,al-QaedaintheIslamicMaghreb(AQIM)claimedithadattackedan
Areva-operateduraniummineinArlit,northernNiger.AQIMattributedthealleged
assaulttoitsal-NasserbrigadeandsaidtheattackwascarriedoutwithGrad-type
missiles.Therewerenoreportedinjuriesordamageasaresultoftheattack,and
theNigeriengovernmentevendeniedtheassaulthadtakenplace.Arevamadeno
comment.

AQIMsaiditsallegedattackhadtakenplaceinspiteofstrictsecuritymeasuresat
thefacility,althoughsecurityattheminehascomeundersomescrutinyinrecent
years.TheArlitfacilitywasbombedin2013.Theattack,whichleftoneperson
deadand14othersinjured,wasblamedontheMovementforOnenessandJihad
inWestAfrica(MUJAO)andal-Mourabitoun.

ThepurportedrocketattackontheArlitfacilitycameamidaseriesofAQIM
attacksonsofttargetsinWestAfricathatinclude:ahotelinBamako,Maliin
November2015ahotelandacafeinOuagadougou,BurkinaFasoinJanuary
2016andabeachresortnearAbidjaninCotedIvoireinMarch2016.

TheArlitassault,however,alsofollowsarocketattackcarriedoutonagasfacility
runbyBPandStatoilinKrechba,AlgeriainMarch.Theseattacksraisequestions
aboutwhetherthegroupintendstotargetmorehigh-profileforeignownedor
operatedassetsgoingforwardandifAQIMhasthecapabilitiestoconductsuch
attacks.

ContinueReading

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 From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 04/07/201612:14:56PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue68

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browser

April7,2016--Volume13,Issue68

INTHISISSUE
*SiegementalityovercomesPutinsRussia
*MoreIngushfightforIslamicStatethanhadbeenpartoflocalinsurgencyatitsheight
*DespiteUkraineprecedent,CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZoneTreatyrelieson
negativesecurityassurances
*whileloopholesintreatypotentiallygiveMoscowfreedomtotransitnuclearweapons
throughCentralAsia

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

PutinsNewPraetorianGuard

Thisweek(April6),withoutpriorwarningoranymeaningfulpublicdebate,President
VladimirPutinannouncedamassiveoverhaulofsecurity,publicorderandlawenforcementin
Russiabycreatingaspecialnewinternalarmy.Formedimmediatelybypresidentialorder
(ukaz),thenewNationalGuardwillbebasedontheexistingInteriorMinistryTroopsa
200,000strongarmedforcewithmechanizedmotor-riflebrigadesanddivisions,special
troopsandanairforce,previouslysubordinatedtotheinteriorministry,whichisinchargeof
Russiaspoliceforces.TheNationalGuardwillincludenotonlytheInteriorTroopsthatare
mostlymannedbyconscriptsoldiers,butalsospecialparamilitarypoliceunitsknownas
OMONandSOBRaswellastheinterdepartmentalgovernmentsecurityguardservice
(VnevedomstvenayaOkhrana).Theseunitsofcontractservicemennumbersome200,000
andwill,thus,boosttheNationalGuardtoaround400,000(Interfax,April6).

ThecreationoftheNationalGuardrequiresmajorchangestoexistinglegislation.TheKremlin
hasintroducedapackageofbillstotheDumatomaketheNationalGuardalegalentitywith
sweepingpowerstoarrest,interrogateanduseofdeadlyweaponsagainstRussiancivilian
suspectsortroublemakers.PutinexpressedfullconfidencetheDumawouldapprovethe
NationalGuardlegislativepackagewithoutanydelaysotherecouldbenopossible
misunderstandingsbuttheoverhaulisgoingaheadbeforethelegislatorshavetimetoeven
considerthechanges.Byseparateukaz,PutinappointedArmyGeneralViktorZolotov(62)
asthecommander-in-chiefoftheNationalGuard.Zolotovwillbesubordinatedsolelyand
directlytothepresidentandhavetheadministrativerankofacabinetmember(Interfax,April
6).

ZolotovisPutinslong-timecloseassociatefromSt.Petersburgandthepresidentschief
bodyguardandsparringpartnerinboxingandjudo.BorninSt.Petersburg,Zolotovservedin
theKGBbodyguard9thMainDirectorate.From2000,whenPutinbecamepresident,until
2013,Zolotovwasthechiefofthepresidentialsecurityservice.InMay2012,Zolotovwas
appointedapermanentmemberofRussiasSecurityCouncil.In2013,Zolotov,whodidnot
haveanypoliceormilitaryservicebackground,wasappointeddeputycommanderofthe
InteriorTroops.InMay2014,ZolotovbecamecommanderoftheInteriorTroops.Plansto
createaNationalGuardinRussia,basedontheInteriorTroops,havereportedlycirculatedin
theKremlininpreviousyears.Zolotovaprofessionalbodyguard,whomPutinapparently
considersabsolutelyloyalwasclearlybeinggroomedtobecomethecommanderofthenew
jointsecurityforce(Kommersant,April5).

Inanapparentmovetocompensatetheinteriorministry,Putinannouncedthatthe
antinarcoticsservicetheFederalDrugControlService(FSKN)andtheFederal
MigrationService(FMS),whichcontrolsforeignersonRussianterritory,willbemergedwith
theMinistryofInterior.BribesfromillegalimmigrantsandnarcotradersmaketheFSKNand
FMSprimeillegalmoneymakerswithinRussianlawenforcement.BoththeFSKNandFMS
willbetransformedintodirectorateswithintheinteriorministrytheirpresentstaffwillbecut
androtated.Russiasentirepoliceforceisbeingrebooted,andofficerswillbereinstatedinto
newstructures(Kommersant,April5).InRussia,obtainingagoodmoneymakingposition
traditionallyrequirespayingasubstantialbribe,inadvance,tothedecision-makingsuperiors.

PutinhasdeclaredtheNationalGuardsprimetasktobefightingterroristsandorganized
crime,buttheforceseemstoobigandtooheavilyarmedwithnewtanksandotherheavy
weaponsforsuchamission.TheFederalSecurityService(FSB),theInvestigativeCommittee
andtheMinistryofInteriorwillcontinuetoworkorganizedcrimeandterroristthreats,andit
isnotclearhowtheNationalGuardcouldbetheleadingantiterroristoranticrimeforce.In
Soviettimes,theInteriorMinistryTroopswereaheavilyarmedinternalforcecreatedtodeal
withdomesticenemiesthepeopleofRussiaprimarily,whomtheCommunistsalways
consideredaninherentthreat.Today,Putinapparentlybelievestheinternalthreattohisregime
isrisingrapidly,althoughallopinionpollscontinuetoputPutinsapprovalratingsatrecord
highs.Ofcourse,theRussianeconomyisinthedoldrums,masspovertyisontherise,and
socialunrestispossibleinthefuture.Buttheconsensusopinionofsocialscientistsand
pollstersisthatatleasttwotothreemorecalmyearscanbeexpectedahead(Ng.ru,April6).

WhenriggedDumaelectionstriggeredmassantigovernmentdemonstrationsinMoscowatthe
endof2011andinspring2012,theinteriorministrydidnotinitiallydemonstrategreat
efficiencyandstruggledtomusterenoughtrainedmanpowertoeffectivelycontrolthestreets
ofMoscow.In2012thenumberofspecializedanti-riotOMONpoliceinallofRussiawas
estimatedatsome25,000,thenumberstationedpermanentlyinMoscowonlysome2,000.
TheInternalTroopsunitsusedasbackupinMoscowinspring2012wereineptconscripts,
withlessthanayearofserviceundertheirbelts.TheprecinctMoscowpolice,ontheother
hand,arecorrupttheirmoraleislowandtheirriottrainingzero.TheMoscowOMONwas
boostedto6,000byotherOMONunitsflowninfromalloverRussia.ThisleftRussian
provincialcitiesexposedifprotestsspread.ThedifferentOMONsfromvariousregionsare
closelyconnectedtolocalauthoritiestheyhavenevertrainedtogetheranddonotknowother
cities(NovayaGazeta,March2,2012).

PutinssuddendecisiontocreateajointmassivepraetorianNationalGuardbymerging
togetheralltheOMONunitsandtheInteriorTroopsmayhavebeentriggeredbythe
publicationoftheso-calledPanamaPapers,whichdisclosedcorruptoffshorefinancial
schemesthatinvolved,amongothers,someofPutinsclosestacquaintances.TheKremlinhas
accusedtheUSStateDepartmentandtheCentralIntelligenceAgency(CIA)ofbeing
instrumentalintheirpublicationallegedlyaimedatPutin(Interfax,April4).Accordingto
Putinhimself,thereleaseofthePanamaPapersisanattempttoweakenRussiafromthe
inside,tosplitsocietyandunderminetrustinthegovernment.Putinadded:Theywillpitus
oneagainstanother,likeitwasdoneduringthetragictimeofWorldWarI(Interfax,April7).
ApparentlyPutinisreferringtotheBolshevikrevolutionledbyVladimirLenin,whichwas
partiallyfinancedbytheGermanGeneralStaff.Itseems,Putinconsidershimselfassome
besiegedemperorintheKremlin,whileaUS-ledandfinancedrevolutionaryregimechange
hasbeencommenced,withthePanamaPapersasadeclarationofwar.Amassivepraetorian
NationalGuard,headedbyanabsolutelyloyalbodyguard,isseenastheonlymeanstostop
theonslaught.

--PavelFelgenhauer

IngushetiasAuthoritiesFaceDoubleThreatofMilitantsReturningFromSyriaand
SalafisatHome

Fromtheoutside,thesituationinIngushetiaappearsdeceptivelyquiet.Butinreality,the
republicisnotnearlyaspeacefulas,forexample,Adygea,where,despitetensions,noopen
conflicttakesplace.PublicconfrontationsarecommoninIngushetia,ontheotherhand.Also,
theIslamistundergroundmovementintherepubliccouldstillbereinvigorated.OnMarch19,
theIngushetianbranchoftheFederalSecurityService(FSB)announcedtheliftingofthe
counterterroristoperationregimethathadbeenineffectintherepublicsince2014.TheFSB
saidthespecialregimewasbeingliftedbecauseoftheabsenceofaterroristthreatin
Ingushetiastownsandvillages.IsthisacompletevictoryfortheFSB?Notreally.And
realizingthis,Ingushetianauthoritieswarnedtherepublicsresidentsthatthecounterterrorist
operationregimeisstillinplaceintheforestedmountainousareasofNazran,Sunzhaand
Malgobekdistrictsbecausethereisinformationaboutmovementsofmilitantsinthoseareas.
Untilaspecialannouncement,temporaryrestrictionsandcounterterroristmeasureswillbein
place(Mk.ru,March20).

SomeareasofNazranandSunzhadistrictscanbedescribedasforestedmountainsbut
nothingevenremotelyresemblingmountainsexistsinIngushetiasMalgobekdistrict,whichis
inthenorthernpartoftherepublic.Ingushetiaconsistsonlyoffourdistrictsand,accordingto
thegovernmentsannouncement,theregimeofheightenedsecuritycontinuesinthreeofthem
becauseoftheinformationaboutmovementsofmilitants.Thus,thepublicstatementsof
officialsaboutliftingthecounterterroristregimeinIngushetiashouldbeseenaslittlemorethan
aPRcampaignfortheRussianmedia.

TheactivitiesofIngushetiasShariajamaatweresubstantiallyundercutbackin2010,when
theRussiansecurityservicesmanagedtocaptureitsleader,AmirMagas.Histrialtookplace
inthecityofRostov-on-DonbecausetheauthoritieswereafraidtoholditinIngushetia.
Magaswassentencedtotwolifetermsinprison(Regnum,July9,2015).

OneofthelastIngushrebel amirseliminatedbytheRussiansecurityserviceswasBeslan
Makhauri,whowaskilledonOctober31,2015(Interfax.ru,October31,2015).Shortly
beforehisdeath,Makhaurimanagedtoswearanoathofallegiancetotheso-calledcaliphof
theIslamicState(IS),AbuBakral-Baghdadi.Makhaurisoathmadetheterritoryof
IngushetiapartoftheISCaliphate.SomemembersoftheCaucasusEmirateinIngushetia
didnotagreetojointheISandmadethisknowntothepublicviatheShariajamaatswebsite
(Hunafa.com,September5,2015).Thosewhocontrolthatwebsitearestillhopingthe
CaucasusEmiratesfollowerswillprevailinIngushetia.Thewebsite,however,postsIslamic
textsinsteadofnewsofwhathappeningintherepublic.

Since2015,IngushetiasleadershiphashadtodealwithanewheadacheISrecruitswho
havetriedtotraveltoSyriatojointhemilitants.DuringIngushetianGovernorYunus-Bek
YevkurovslastmeetingwithrelativesofthosewholefttherepublicforSyria,officialssaid
that200IngushwerefightinginSyria.Theauthoritiessaidthattheydeterminedtheexact
locationof99Ingushmilitantsandwerelookingfortherest(YouTube,March3).

MultiplearrestsofpeoplewhowenttoSyriaandreturnedtotheNorthCaucasusindicatethat
thesituationintherepublicisfarfromnormal.Theauthoritieshaverecentlylauncheda
criminalinvestigationagainsta22-year-oldresidentoftherepublicwhowenttoSyriainJuly
2013andfoughtalongsidetheIslamicState.Theauthoritieschargedthesuspectwith
participationinanarmedformationinaforeigncountry.Thepenaltyforthatcrimeisfiveto
tenyearsinprison,butifthesuspectvoluntarilyendshisparticipationinthearmedgroupand
givesuphisweapons,thechargesagainsthimmaybedropped(KavkazskyUzel,March28).
InIngushetia,theauthoritiesdetainreturneesfromSyriapracticallyeveryweek,accordingto
newsreportsfromtherepublic.

TheauthoritiesofIngushetiashouldbeconcernedaboutresidentsoftherepublicwhoare
fightingintheMiddleEast.ThenumberofIngushmilitantsintheMiddleEastismuchgreater
thanthenumberofmemberstheIngush jamaathadduring20042010,itsheyday.Even
duringtheIngushjamaatsbestdays,itnumberedonlyseveraldozenpeople.Hence,the200
IngushmilitantsfightinginSyriaposeaseriouschallengetothegovernmentofIngushetia
againstthebackdropoftheslowstabilizationprocessintherepublicsince2010.Theactual
numberofIngushetiansfightinginSyriamaybeevenhigherthanofficiallyannounced.

Ingushetiasauthoritiesaredealingwithotherproblems,suchastheconfrontationwiththe
Salafists,whoprovidenon-militarysupporttothemilitants.TheleadersofthelocalSalafists,
IsaTsechoevandKhamzatChumakov,havegainedsuchgreatinfluenceinthesocietythatthe
governmentcannotaffordtostopthemfrompreachingorshutdowntheirmosque,which
thousandsofMuslimsattendeveryFriday.TheSalafistmosqueandthemilitantsreturning
fromSyriaarethetwomainpointsofconcernfortherepublicanauthorities.Theauthorities
andthesecurityservicesrealizethattheSalafistsinIngushetiaarestrongandinfluential.The
republicisstillintransition,howeverandthenextyearortwowillbecrucialforthefutureof
Ingushetia.Bythen,itwillbecomeclearwhethertheSalafistsandthegovernmentwillclash
witheachotherorreachanagreement.

--MairbekVatchagaev

CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone:ALongGestation

(PartOne)

KazakhstansPresidentNursultanNazarbayevparticipatedintheNuclearSecuritySummitin
Washington,DC,onMarch30April2,wherehemetwithUnitedStatesPresidentBarack
Obama(Kazinform,April2).Kazakhstanhaslongbeenrecognizedasaglobalexampleon
nucleardisarmamentandnonproliferation.Thecountrywillinglygaveupitsmassivenuclear
arsenalandnuclearmaterialsstockpiles,inheritedfromtheSovietUnionafter1991.Since
then,Kazakhstanhastirelesslyadvocatedfornuclearnonproliferationontheinternational
stage.Beingtheworldslargestproducerandexporterofnaturaluranium,Kazakhstanworks
closelywiththeInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)andtheUStoenhancesafety
andsecurityinitsuraniumminingandprocessing.

NucleardisarmamentandnonproliferationformacenterpieceofKazakhstansforeignpolicy
initsownregionandbeyond.Suchactivismstems,inpart,fromanationaltrauma.Morethan
theotherCentralAsiancountries,Kazakhstansufferedmassivedemographicandecological
damagefromtheSovietUnionsnuclearweaponstests,recklesspracticesinuraniummining
andstorage,andthedumpingofradioactiveandtoxicwaste.Kazakhstanssubsequent
championshipofnucleardisarmamentandnonproliferation,however,isalsoaneffortto
ensurethatnuclearweaponsarenotre-introducedontoitsterritoryandinCentralAsia
generally.

Russiaisthesourceofconcernsinthatregard.TheObamaadministrationhasmanifested
concernaboutRussiaretaininghypotheticaloptionstore-introducenuclearweaponsinto
CentralAsia(seebelow).Butthereislittlepublicdiscussiononthismatter,andthereareno
reliabletreatysafeguardsagainstsuchahypotheticalpossibility.

AllfiveCentralAsiancountriesaresignatorytothe2009TreatyonaCentralAsianNuclear-
Weapon-FreeZone(CANWFZTreaty).Theynegotiateditamongthemselves(Kazakhstan
beingthemostactive),withinputsalongthewayfromthenuclearpowers,which,however,
arenotpartiestothistreaty.ApplyingtotheCentralAsiancountriesonly,thetreatys
obligationsarewillinglyassumedandlegallybinding.Thetreatysignificantlyadvancesnuclear
non-proliferationandnuclearsafety,andisvaluedassuchintheregion.

TheCANWFZtreatyobligatesthosestatesnottodevelop,produce,acquire,stockpile,orin
anyformhavecontrolovernuclearweaponsorothernuclearexplosivesnottoseek,receive,
orofferanyassistancetowardthosepurposesnottocarryoutnucleartestsoranynuclear
explosions,andtoprohibitsuchtestsandexplosionsontheirterritoriestouseanynuclear
materialandinstallationsontheirterritoriesforexclusivelypeacefulpurposesandto
cooperatewiththeIAEAinensuringphysicalprotectionofnuclearinstallations,equipment
andmaterialinstorageandtransportation,soastopreventunauthorizeduseortheft(US
StateDepartment,TreatiesDataBaseHome,CANWFZTreaty,accessedApril5).

Thistreatyhadalsobeenexpectedtoprecludeanynuclearpowerfromintroducingnuclear
weaponsorexplosivesontotheterritoriesofthoseCentralAsianstates.Suchmovesmight
havebeenprecludedbymakingitillegalforthefivetreatysignatoriestoaccepttheentryof
nuclearweaponsorexplosivesontheirterritories,atthehypotheticalbehestofanuclear
power.

Amongthenuclearpowers,Russiaaloneretainsthattheoreticaloptionthroughsome
ambiguitiesandloopholesinthetreaty.TheUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdomandFrance
expressedobjectionsandreservationstothosepotentiallylaxprovisionsduringthelong-
drawnnegotiationsovertheTreatyandafterithadbeensigned.

Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,TurkmenistanandUzbekistannegotiatedtheCANWFZ
Treatyfrom1993onward,beforesigningitin2006,inSemipalatinsk(Semei),theformer
SovietnuclearweaponstestingsiteinKazakhstan.Russiainfluencedthenegotiationsandthe
finaltextfrombackstage,apparentlymoreeffectivelythantheUSdidupfront.Thefinaltext
(whichhassinceenteredintoforce)containspotentialopeningsforRussiannuclearweapons
toenterCentralAsiancountries(seePartTwo).

ThethreeWesternnuclearpowers,therefore,stayedawayfromtheCANWFZtreaty-signing
ceremonysoughtre-negotiationorrevisionofobjectionableprovisionsandvotedagainst
twoUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyresolutionsthatwelcomedthetreatyssigningandthe
establishmentofanuclear-weapon-freezoneinCentralAsia.Thethreepowerswere
concernedthatRussiawouldstillbeabletotransportnuclearweaponsthroughCentralAsia
ordeploytheminthefuture.Kazakhstanadmittedthattheissueremainedopento
interpretation.In2010,then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonannouncedthattheUSwas
willingtocontinueconsultationswiththeCentralAsianstatestoresolvethosedisagreements
(ScottParrish,WilliamPotter:CentralAsianStatesEstablishNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone
DespiteU.S.Opposition,CenterforNonproliferationStudies,September9,2006Nti.org,
accessedApril4,2016).

AccompanyingtheCANWFZTreatyisaProtocolonnegativesecurityassurances(pledges
torefrainfromcertainactionsseePartTwo),signedbythefivedeclarednuclearpowers.
ThoseassurancesareofferedtoeachofthefiveCentralAsianstates,whichhoweverarenot
partiestotheProtocolthataccompaniesthetreaty.TheProtocolisalsolegallybinding.The
Westernnuclearpowers,therefore,delayedtheProtocolssigning,apparentlyseekingto
revisitthetreatystext.Theyofficiallyrecordedtheirreservationsaboutthetreatywhenfinally
signingtheProtocolin2014.Thetreatyitself,signedin2006andratifiedbythefivestates,is
inforcesince2009.TheProtocol,however,isnotyetinforce,intheabsenceofUS
ratification(seePartTwo).

--VladimirSocor

CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone:ALongGestation

(PartTwo)

Westernnuclearpowershaveexpressedobjectionsregardingseveralprovisionsofthe
CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone(CANWFZ)Treaty(USStateDepartment,
TreatiesDataBaseHome,CANWFZTreaty,accessedApril5).Thetreaty,signedby
CentralAsiasfivecountries,iscurrentlyinforcebuttheaccompanyingProtocolonsecurity
assurances,signedbythefivenuclearpowers,isnotinforceintheabsenceofratificationby
theUnitedStates(seePartOne).

Underthetreatysarticle3,Each[CentralAsian]partyundertakes[]nottoallowinits
territorytheproduction,acquisition,stationing,storage,oruseofanynuclearweaponorother
nuclearexplosivedevice.Thisclause,however,failstodisallowtransportationortransit
throughCentralAsiasstates.Russiacouldtheoreticallyusethisloopholetoinduceorcajolea
countryintoallowingsuchtransportationortransit.

Thetreatysarticle12mightevenprovidealegalexcuseforthat.Underthisclause,This
treatydoesnotaffecttherightsandobligationsofthe[CentralAsian]partiesunderother
internationaltreaties,whichtheymayhaveconcludedpriortothedateoftheentryintoforce
ofthistreaty.

ThatclauseiswidelyseenasareferencetotheCollectiveSecurityTreaty(CST),thelegal
baseoftheRussia-ledCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization(CSTO).Thisreferenceisa
RussianinputintotheCANWFZTreaty,whichisanaccordamongfiveCentralAsian
countriestowhichRussiaisnotaparty.ItaimstocompromisetheCANWFZTreatyby
assertingthattheCSTtreatytakesprecedence.TheUShasrepeatedlyobjectedtoarticle12
duringthenegotiationandratificationprocessesoftheCANWFZTreatyandthe
accompanyingProtocolonsecurityassurances.

RussiacouldpotentiallyinvoketheCSTtreatysclausesonmilitaryassistancetojustify
introducing(ortransiting,transportingseeabove)nuclearordual-capableweaponsin
CentralAsiancountries.Kazakhstan,KyrgyzstanandTajikistanareCSTOmembers
Uzbekistanhas,since2012,suspendeditsmembershipwhileTurkmenistanisaneutralstate
byitsownchoice,symbolicallyapprovedattheUNandotherforums,butnotcoveredby
anyguarantees.

Insum,theCANWFZTreatyhasaddedsomenewambiguitiestothepre-existingones.Seen
inthislight,CANWFZTreatysdispute-adjudicationmechanismlooksineffective:Disputes
betweenthepartiesinvolvingtheinterpretationorapplicationofthistreatyshallbesettled
throughnegotiationsorbyothermeansasmaybedeemednecessarybytheparties.This
treatysdepositary,responsibleinteraliaforhandlingsignatoriesnotificationsaboutpossible
disagreements,isKyrgyzstanwhereasthedepositaryofothernuclear-weapon-free-zone
treatiesistheUNSecretaryGeneralsoffice.Unlikethenuclear-weapon-freezonesin
SoutheastAsia,theSouthPacific,AfricaandLatinAmerica(includingtheCaribbean),the
CANWFZTreatydoesnotprovidefortheestablishmentofacommissionorsimilarbodyto
overseeimplementationandverifycompliancewiththetreaty(Nti.org,accessedApril5).

ThefivedeclarednuclearpowerssignedaProtocolonnegativesecurityassurancesonMay
6,2014,forthebenefitofnuclear-weapon-freeCentralAsianstates.ThisProtocolhadlong
beenexpectedtoaccompanytheCANWFZTreaty.But,giventhatbothdocumentsare
definedaslegallybinding,theWesternnuclearpowersseemedreluctanttoassumebinding
commitmentsaslongastheCANWFZTreatysambiguitiesandloopholesremainedopen.
ThefivenuclearpowerssignedtheProtocolalmosteightyearsafterthetreatyhadbeen
signed.

WhatfinallycatalyzedtheProtocolssigningwasthecollapseoftheBudapestMemorandum
onsecurityassurancesbythenuclearpowerstoUkraineinFebruary2014.Theassurancesto
Ukrainehadalsobeennegativeonesforthemostparti.e.,thenuclearpowers(meaning,for
allpracticalpurposes,Russia)wouldrefrainfromtakingcertainhostileactionsagainst
Ukraine,inreturnforUkrainebecomingano-nuclear-weaponstate.Inthewakeofthe
BudapestMemorandumsfiasco,thethreeWesternnuclearpowersapparentlydeemed
necessarytooffertheirnegativesecurityassurances,alongsideRussiasandChinas,tothe
CentralAsiannuclear-weapon-freestates.However,theyattachedreservationsreflecting
differencesovertheinterpretationofsometreatyclauses.

ThisProtocolsassurances,moreover,arefarnarrower,comparedwiththosethatUkraine
hadreceived.AnotherdifferenceisthatFranceandChinaaccededtotheBudapest
Memorandumseparately,andonlyafterithadbeenfinalizedbyRussia,theUSandthe
UnitedKingdomwithUkraine.TheProtocolaccompanyingtheNWFZTreaty,however,has
beensignedbythefivenuclearpowerstogether.

UndertheProtocol,Eachpartyundertakesnottouseorthreatentouseanuclearweaponor
othernuclearexplosivedeviceagainstanypartytotheCANWFZTreatyEachparty[to
theProtocol]undertakesnottocontributetoanyactthatconstitutesaviolationofthe
CANWFZTreatyorofthisProtocol,bypartiestothem.Thelatterclausemaybereadin
partaspledgingnottoinstigateviolations(Disarmament.un.org,accessedApril4).

Sincethen,France,theUK(withreservations)andChina(apparentlywithoutreservations)
haveratifiedtheProtocol.

RussiahasratifieditwithreservationsofficiallycreditedtoPresidentVladimirPutin.Thus,
RussiashallnotbeboundbytheProtocolifanypartytotheCANWFZTreatyallowsany
formoftransitofnuclearweaponsorothernuclearexplosivedevicesthroughitsterritory
(TASS,March12,April20,2015).ThisimpliesthatRussiamayrevoketheassurancesnotto
useorthreatentousenuclearweapons,intheeventthataCentralAsianstateallowsa
countryotherthanRussiatoconductthosetypesoftransit.Meanwhile,Russiamayinterpret
theCANWFZTreatyasallowingRussiatoconductsuchtransitinCentralAsia(seeabove).

TheUSSenateisexpectedtotakeitstimewiththeratificationandhasreservationsofits
own.Thus,theProtocolisnotyetinforce.

AttheNuclearSecuritySummit,justheldinWashington,Ukrainecirculatedastatementabout
thedefunctBudapestMemorandum.ItnotedthatRussia,aproviderofsecurityassurancesto
Ukraineunderthatdocument,hadviolateditwithimpunity,renderingsuchassurances
meaningless(Nss.2016.org,April2).Assurances,letalonethoseofthenegativetype,areno
substituteforpositivesecurityguarantees.

--VladimirSocor
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ChinasGreatGame:InRussiasbackyard

Reuters
T

hehandfulofshinynewbuildingssproutingoutofabarrenlandscapeofdustysteppeandrustingshippingcontainersisan
incongruoussight.Oneofthem,asparklingtowerofmarbleandglass,isemptyasidefromaduty-freeshopontheground
floor.Nextdoor,ashopsellsRussianhoneyandChineseladiesshoes,displayedsidebyside.

ThisisKhorgos,thedividinglinebetweenChinaandKazakhstan.Andwhileitmaynotlooklikemuchnow,Chinahas
ambitionstotransformthisborderpointatwhatwasoncetheedgeoftheRussianempireintoanewgatewaytothewest.

Eastmeetswest.Itshere.Thisisthelinkingpoint,saysHichamBelmaachi,commercialdirectorofanewly-builtdry
portattheborder,designedtospeedupthetransitofChinesegoodsviaXinjiangontheirwaytocentralAsia,Europeorthe
MiddleEast.

KhorgosisjustoneofaribbonofprojectsacrosstheregiondesignedtohelprealiseChinasdreamsofanewSilkRoad
aplanbackedbyPresidentXiJinpingthatwouldfirmlystamphiscountrysauthorityandinfluencefromXiiantoEurope.

Withpromisesoftensofbillionsofdollarsininvestment,theChinesestrategy,ifrealised,couldreshapetheformerSoviet
economiesofcentralAsia,whichhavebeenbatteredbyfallingcommoditypricesandrecessioninRussia.

ButincreasingeconomicdependenceonChinaatatimeofuncertaintyoverthehealthofitseconomyisnotuniversally
popularinthecentralAsianstates.AndthelaunchofaregionalintegrationdrivehasputBeijingonacollisioncoursewith
Moscow,whichhasbeenlobbyingcountriestojoinitsEurasianEconomicUnion.ItalsoraisesthestakesforBeijing:as
ChinainvestsmoreinthisfragileregionborderingAfghanistan,itisfindingithardertoresistbeingdrawnintopoliticaland
militaryaffairs.

ThisisChinasinadvertentempire.Itsapartoftheworldwheretheyareclearlybecomingthemostsignificant
geopoliticalplayer,saysRaffaelloPantucci,aspecialistontheregionattheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute.Idontthink
theyvegivenconsiderationtowhatthatmeansinthelongerterm.

Echoesofancientcamelbells
Twoyearsago,MrXistoodinKazakhstansfuturisticcapitalofAstanaandinvokedthememoryofZhangQian,the
diplomatwhohelpedopenChinastradewiththeworldinthe2ndcenturyBC.

AsIstandhereandlookbackatthatepisodeofhistory,Icouldalmosthearthecamelbellsechoinginthemountainsand
seethewispofsmokerisingfromthedesert,theChineseleadersaid.DescribingKazakhstanasamagicland,hecalled
forthecreationofaneweconomicbeltalongtheoldtraderoutes.

TheancientSilkRoadhasgainedfreshvitality,hesaid.

Othersseeparallelswithamorerecentperiodinhistory:thetussleforinfluencebetweentheRussianandBritishempiresin
the19thcentury.AsChinaexpandsitsinfluenceinpartsoftheformerSovietUnion,centralAsiacouldbecomethefocus
ofanewGreatGamebetweenBeijing,MoscowandpossiblyIran,Turkeyandwesterncountries.

ButaswesterninterestintheregionrecedeswiththemilitarydrawdownfromAfghanistan,andRussiasabilitytoinvestis
curtailedbyitsowneconomicrecession,theGreatGameintheregionmayturnouttobeone-sided.Overthepasttwo
decadesChinahasquietlybecomethepre-eminenteconomicpowerintheregionnowmanycentralAsiangovernments
greettheprospectofChineseinvestmentastheirlastchancetostaveoffadownturnthatcouldthreatenpoliticalstability.

TradebetweenChinaandthefivepost-SovietcentralAsianstatesKazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistanand
Uzbekistanhasrisenfrom$1.8bnin2000to$50bnin2013,accordingtoIMFdata,beforedroppingslightlyamidthe
declineincommodityprices.ThatmeansChinahassurpassedRussiainrecentyearstobecometheregionssinglelargest
tradepartner.

Ifyoulookatinvestmentneedsintheregion,thenChineseparticipationisveryimportanttosaytheleast,saysAgris
Preimanis,centralAsiaeconomistattheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment,amajorwesterninvestorin
theregion.TheyareincreasinglyactiveinallsectorsandyoujustcannotseewesterncapitalorRussiancapitaltakingtheir
place.
InKazakhstan,Chinesecompaniesownsomewherebetweenone-fifthandone-quarterofthecountrysoilproduction
aboutthesameproportionasthenationaloilcompany.InTurkmenistan,holderoftheworldsfourth-largestgasreserves,
ChinahasreplacedRussiasGazpromasthedominantbuyerofTurkmengas,accountingfor61percentofexportslast
year.MuchofthatshiftisthankstheCentralAsia-Chinagaspipeline,openedin2009,whichprovidestheregionsenergy-
richeconomieswithamajorexportroutenotcontrolledbyMoscow.Intheregionspoorercountries,Chinahasalso
becomeaneconomicpower.ChinesecompanieshaveinvestedinoilrefineriesandcementplantsinKyrgyzstanand
Tajikistan,andinroadsandtunnelsacrosstheregion.

DataonthescaleofChineseinvestmentaresketchy,asmuchisdoneatabilaterallevelbetweenChinesestatebanks,such
asChinaDevelopmentBankorChinaEximbank,andcentralAsiangovernmentsorstatecompanies.

Butinoneexample,theTajikdeputyfinanceministerlastyeartoldtheFTthatBeijingwouldinvest$6bninTajikistanover
thenextthreeyearsafigureequivalenttotwo-thirdsofthecountrysannualgrossdomesticproduct.

ThiseconomicdominancemeansthatoftenitseemsthatChina,notRussia,isnowthemostimportantpatronofcentral
Asiangovernments.AfterKazakhstanalloweditscurrencytofloatfreelyinAugust,triggeringanimmediatedevaluationof
morethanafifth,itsfirstprioritywastoreassureBeijing.
WhereisthefirstvisitoftheKazakhpresidentafterthisdecision?Wherewasthefirstcommitmentthatalltheinvestments
areinplace?China,saysKairatKelimbetov,thecentralbankgovernor.

WhenTajikistan,theregionspoorestcountry,wasrunninglowoncentralbankreservesthissummer,itsignedaswap
agreementwiththePeoplesBankofChinaworthRmb3.2bn($500m).

ItisnotalwayssmoothtravellingonthenewSilkRoad.Inaregionthathastraditionallyfeltgreaterculturalaffinitieswith
RussiaandTurkey,politiciansarefrequentlysuspiciousofChina.AproposalforChinatoleasealargeareaoflandfor
agriculturetriggeredrarepublicprotestsinKazakhstanin2010.

DosymSatpayev,aKazakhpoliticalscientistwhoheadstheAlmaty-basedRiskAssessmentGroup,warns:Anyattemptby
ChinatoincreaseinfluenceinKazakhstanwillawakemoreanti-Chinasentiment.

Moscowscompromise

WhilemanyseethenewSilkRoadasmoreofaformalisationofChinaspresenceintheregionthanaspecificplan,the
fanfaresurroundingithasraisedhacklesamongthosewhoseecentralAsiaaspartofRussiassphereofinfluence.Zhao
Huasheng,directoroftheCentreforRussiaandCentralAsiastudiesatFudanUniversity,saysthatwhentheSilkRoad
strategywasannounced,RussianofficialssawitasachallengetoMoscowsownregionalintegrationproject,theEurasian
EconomicUnion.

Chinaprovidedalotofexplanation,hesays.Chinaseestheprojectsdevelopinginparallel,inaco-operativeway.

Inthepast,RussiablockedattemptstoincreasethereachofanotherChinese-ledregionalgroup,theShanghaiCooperation
Organisation,whichincludesallthecentralAsianstatesapartfromTurkmenistan.

YetwhenMrXivisitedMoscowinMay,thetwocountriessignedadeclarationonco-operationbetweentheEurasian
EconomicUnionandtheSilkRoadproject.AlexanderGabuev,seniorassociateattheCarnegieMoscowCenter,athink-
tank,saysthedealwastheresultofpainfulinternaldiscussionsinMoscow.Analystssaytheunspokenagreement
betweenMoscowandBeijingappearstobethatRussiawillcedeeconomicdominanceincentralAsiatoChina,butmaintain
itsmilitaryandsecurityheftintheregion.

WhattheKremlinishopingforisadivisionoflabourbetweenMoscowandBeijingincentralAsia,saysMrGabuev.In
thisgrandscheme,Chinawillbethemajordriverforeconomicdevelopment,whileMoscowwillremainthedominanthard
securityprovider.

LiuYazhou,ageneralinthePeoplesLiberationArmy,calledcentralAsiaarichpieceofcakegiventotodaysChinese
peoplebyheavenina2010essaythatbecameakindofmanifestoforChinasexpansionistpolicyintheregion.

AnalystsseetwobroadmotivationsbehindthedramaticincreaseinChineseinvestmentintheregionthatstartedinthe
1990s.

First,asChinascommodityconsumptionskyrocketed,centralAsiawasanearbysourceofoil,gas,uranium,copperand
goldsupplies.Second,Beijingwantedco-operationfromthenewly-independentstatestokeepitsrestiveXinjiangregionin
check.XinjiangsnativeUighurshavemuchincommonwiththecultures,languagesandreligionofcentralAsia,andthere
isalargeUighurminorityintheregion.

ButChinamayfindithardtostayoutofsecuritymattersasitseconomicinterestsintheregionincrease.Ithasalready
startedprovidingsomemilitaryaidtoKyrgyzstanandTajikistan.Eventhoughthisisaneconomicprojectitcouldcreate
politicalimpactorinfluence,saysProfZhao.IthinkChinawillgetmoreinvolvedinsecurityintheregion.Butitdoesnt
meanChinawillbeinvolvedinthatregionmilitarily.

GeneralLiuwritesoftheculturalaffinitiesbetweenXinjiangandthepeoplesofcentralAsia,noting:Theadvantageous
factoristhattheyallderivegreatbenefitsfromeconomicco-operationwithChina.

Anewroutetomarket

WiththelaunchofthenewSilkRoad,analystsseeashiftininvestmentstowardsinfrastructureandothersectors.If
beforeChineseinvestmentwasdirectedattheoilandgassector,nowitwillbeininfrastructure,industry,agriculture,
tourismandotherareas,saysDingXiaoxing,directorofcentralAsiastudiesattheChinaInstituteforContemporary
InternationalRelations,agovernment-linkedthink-tank.

AtKhorgos,theKazakh-Chinesebordercrossing,thisshiftisbecomingreality.Rowsofgleamingnewrailwaytracks
stretchintothedistance,readytohandleever-increasingvolumesofChinesecargo.MrBelmaachiboaststhathisteamcan
shiftatrainloadofcargofromaChinesetoaKazakhtrainthetwocountriesrailwayshavedifferent-sizedgaugesin
just47minutes.

Thestaterailwaycompany,KazakhstanTemirZholy(KTZ),hasinvested245bntenge($900m)tobuildthedryport,which
startedoperationsinAugustandlaunchesofficiallynextMonday.ChinasJiangsuprovinceinSeptemberannouncedan
agreementtoinvest$600moverfiveyearsinlogisticsandindustrialzonesaroundKhorgos.
DarrylHadaway,aformerregionalheadofDeloittewhoisstartingalogisticsbusinessfocusedonKazakhstan,says
Khorgoscanbecomeahubforregionalandinternationaltrade,servingtherolethatAtlantadoesintheUS.

Already,thenumberofcontainerstravellingbytrainbetweenChinaandEuropeviaKazakhstanhasincreased18times
between2011and2014,andisontracktodoubleagainthisyear,accordingtoKTZ.Therouteisattractivetoelectronics
companiessuchasHPwhichhashelpedtopioneeritforwhomtheshortertransittimecomparedtoshippingbysea
isworthpayingfor.ThejourneyfromChinatoEuropetakes14-16days,comparedwithamonthormorebysea,although
thecostofshippingonecontainerissome$9,000comparedwith$3,000bysea.

KTZishopingtocapture6percentofthetradebetweenChinaandEuropeby2020currently98percentgoesbysea.

CompaniesinEuropeandChinahaveneverstudiedthisoptionindetail.Peoplewerereallybusyshippingbyseaandnot
focusingonthisroute,saysMrBelmaachi.Ireallythinkthisisthenextbigthingforthesupplychain.

Increasingthenumberoftrainsplyingtheroutemayalsohelptoopenupnewtraderoutesforperishableproducts,likefruit
andvegetables,saysMrHadaway.ThereisawholerangeofproductscomingoutofAsiathathaveneverbeenableto
accessthismarket.

Readthecompleteserieshere
 From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 07/17/201606:00:15AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: JamestownStrategicDigestVol.2,Issue13

Viewthisemailinyourbrowser

July3,2016

StrategicIndicator
ForthisissueoftheJamestownStrategicDigest,weselecteda
strategicindicatorthatrepresentsanoteworthytrend:

64,000
InearlyJuly,PutinsignedadecreeincreasingtheMinistryofInternalAffairsby
around64,000additionalemployees,foratotalstaffof1,067,876.(EDM,July15).

Russia

PaulGoble:BalticGeographyPresentsMoscowWithThreeDistinctChallenges

ManyintheWesttypicallythinkaboutthethreeBalticcountriesofEstonia,Latvia
andLithuaniaasasingleundifferentiatedwhole.ButgiventhegrowingRussian
militarythreatfortheregion,oneparticularlyimportantdifferencetokeepinmind
istheBalticStatesdistinctivegeographies.Russiangroundforcescanattack
EstoniaandLatviafromRussiaproper,buttheycanattackLithuaniaonlyfromthe
KaliningradexclaveorviaBelarus,limitingRussiasoptionsinthelattercase.
RussiacouldintroducelandforcesbyseainLatviarelativelyeasilybecauseof
existingportsanddeepwateralongtheentirecoastline.Itwouldhavefarmore
difficultydoingsoineitherEstonia,whereportsarefewandthecoastalwaters
shallow,orLithuania,whichhasamarshycoastline.Theexistingrailandroad
networksinLatviawouldalsobetheeasiestforRussianforcestoexploitbecause
theyarethelargestandmostredundant.Thelargenumbersofriversandmarshy
areasinallthreeBalticStatesmeanthatanyRussianinvadingforcewouldhave
toquicklyseizethemajorbridgesorbesignificantlysloweddownifdefendersare
preparedtodestroythemtohampertheRussianadvance.Finally,thelarge
forestedareasacrosstheBalticsandnumerousislandsofftheEstoniancoast
wouldprovidesanctuariesfordefenderswithdrawtoandcontinuethefightuntil
NATOcomestotheiraid.

PavelBaev:RussiaWanderstheWarZonesandPoliticalBadlandsoftheMiddle
East

FollowingthedowningofaRussianmilitaryhelicopterontheoutskirtsofPalmyra,
RussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriaisclearlynotgoingwell.Russias
interventionsavedSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadlastautumn,buttheRussian
effortwasnotlargeenoughtosecureforhimadecisiveadvantageinthemulti-
partycivilwar.SomewhateasingthepressureontheRussianforcesinSyriahas
beentheswiftde-escalationoftheconflictwithTurkey,withwhichMoscowiskeen
torestartcounterterrorismoperations.Nonetheless,theKremlinhasnotbeen
concentratingonthegrowingthreatofreturningmilitantstoRussiafromtheMiddle
East.Thisindifferencemaywellcomefromtheassumptionthatalarge-scale
terroristattackinMoscowcouldmobilizepublicsupportfortheKremlinintherun-
uptotheparliamentaryelectionsinSeptember,muchthesamewayasit
happenedatthestartofPutinspoliticalcareerin1999.

VladimirSocor: NATOsSummitTakesHalf-WayMeasuresontheBlackSea
Region

ItwasasummitofmodestexpectationsandmodestresultsforNATOinWarsaw
onJuly89.Theseresultsareofaninterimnature:buildingblocksforfurther
decisionsatupcomingministerialmeetings,notwaitinguntilthenextsummit.The
Warsawresultsdonot,asyet,correlatewiththegrowthinRussiascapacityto
threaten,intimidate,orsubverttheAlliancegenerallyanditseasternnow
frontlinemembercountriesinparticular.NATOsapproachtotheBlackSea
regionissignificantlyweakerthanitsagreed-todeterrencemeasuresforthe
Baltic.NATOdefinesitsforwardpresenceasenhancedintheBalticregion,with
emphasisonaNATO-wideapproachandstationingofcombat-readybattalions
fromearmarkedWesternalliedcountries.Butitdefinesitasatailoredpresence
intheBlackSearegion,basedonaregionalapproach,jointtrainingonan
intermittentbasis(ratherthanrotationofstationarytroops),andnoearmarksas
yetfortheparticipationofWesterntroops.

MiddleEast

SungutaWest:KenyaGamblesonClosureofSomaliRefugeeCamptoHaltal-
ShabaabAttacks

KenyahasannouncedaplantocloseitsDadaabrefugeecamp,theworlds
largestrefugeesettlement,whichNairobihaslongclaimedhasbeeninfiltratedby
al-Qaeda-linkedal-Shabaabfighters.SinceKenyantroopsrolledintoSomaliato
fightal-Shabaabin2011,morethan100terrorattackshaveoccurredinKenya.
Kenyaappearstobelievethatbyclosingthecampitistakingcareofoneofits
securitychallenges.Closingthecamp,however,alsorisksdrivingdesperate
returneestoSomaliaintothearmsofal-Shabaab.Afailedexecutionofthe
repatriationofthecampsresidentscouldturntheclosureofthecampintoacrisis
thatthreatensthesecurityofthewholeregion.

SudhaRamachandran:IndiaTreadsaDelicateLineWithState-Sponsorshipof
Anti-MaoistGroups

Indiascontroversialanti-MaoistvigilanteGroup,SamajikEktaManch(SEM),has
announceditwilldisband.Setupin2015,thegroupsstatedgoalisridding
ChhattisgarhsBastarregionofMaoistsandsupportingthepoliceintheirwork.
PolicepatronageoftheSEMhasbeenevidentitsleadersboastofofficial
connectionsanditsweaponshavetracedbacktopolicearmories.Dozensof
state-supportedmilitiasoperateacrossareaswheretheCommunistPartyof
India-Maoist(CPI-Maoist)isactive.However,thestatesuseofvigilantismmay
alsobefuelingtheMaoistconflict.Statebackingofvigilantetortureandkillinghas
deepenedAdivasi(localtribalgroups)disaffectionwiththestate.Furthermore,the
leadersofsuchvigilantegroupseventuallybegintooperateautonomously,
refusingtotakeordersfromthepolice.

JessicaMoody:ForeignAssetsUnderThreat:IsAQIMPreparinganInAmenas-
StyleAttack?

InlateMay,al-QaedaintheIslamicMaghreb(AQIM)claimedithadattackedan
ArevaoperateduraniummineinArlit,northernNiger.ThisArlitassaultfollowsa
recentrocketattackcarriedoutonagasfacilityrunbyBPandStatoilinKrechba,
Algeria.TheseattacksraisequestionsaboutwhetherAQIMintendstotargetmore
high-profileforeignownedoroperatedassetsgoingforward.AQIMhascited
troopcontributionstotheUNsMINUSMAmissioninMaliandothercounter-
terrorismoperationsacrosstheSahelasitsmainreasonforconductingattacks
outsideMali.ThepurportedArlitrocketattackshouldserveasawarningto
extractivecompaniesthatmoreaggressiveinsurgentassaultsonmultinationals
areonmilitantgroupsagendasandarelikelytobecomemorepervasiveas
insurgenciesthroughouttheregiongainprominence.

EastAsia

AndrewErickson:ChinasBlueprintforSeaPower

Maritimesecuritydevelopmentisatthegeographicandoperationalforefrontof
Chinesemilitarydevelopment.InMarch,Chinaenshrineditsturntowardmaritime
powerinthe13thFive-YearPlan,buildingonadirectivesclearlyarticulateinits
2015DefenseWhitePaper.Whencombinedwithevidencefromother
authoritativesources,thecontinuedexpansionofnavalcapabilitiesisaclear
priority.Moreover,theywillincreasinglyoperatenotonlyinChina's"home
territory,"whichalsoincludesmuchoftheSouthChinaSeas,butalsothe"Two
OceansArea"()coveringthePacificOcean,IndianOcean,aswellas
thelittoralregionsofneighboringAsia,Africa,Oceania,NorthAmerica,South
America,andAntarctica,etc.,withatotalareaoccupyingover50percentofthe
globe.Chinesesourcesareexplicitinlayingoutthisexpansionandprovidea
under-utilizedblueprintforunderstandingChineseintentions.

DavidShinn:Africa:ChinasLaboratoryforThirdWorldSecurityCooperation

ChinasinterestsandexposureinAfricahavegrownexponentiallyoverthepast
twodecades.In2009ChinabecameAfricaslargesttradingpartnerand
continuestoholdtheleadbyawidemargin.Chinasgrowingpresencehas
resulted,however,withmoreChineseinharmswayand,onoccasion,asspecific
targets.ThecontinuingattackshavedrawnincreasingcriticismfromtheChinese
publicandcausedthegovernmenttoconsideradditionalmeasurestocounterthe
problem.Asaresult,Chinesecompaniesareincreasinglyhiringprivatesecurity
companies,andChinaisincreasingitsmilitaryfootprintinAfricathroughthe
constructionofamilitaryfacilityinDjiboutiandtheassignmentofmore
peacekeeperstoUNoperationsinAfricathananyotherpermanentmemberof
theUNSecurityCouncil.ChinassecuritypolicyinAfricaisevolvingslowlybut
inexorablytowardgreaterengagementandamorerobustphysicalpresence.
WhileChinasmilitaryengagementinAfricalagswellbehindthatoftheUnited
StatesandFrance,ithasnowjoinedasmallgroupofnationswithmajorsecurity
tiestothecontinent.

PeterWood:China'sGreatFishnet

WiththeannouncementthatthePermanentCourtofArbitrationwillruleonJuly12
onitscasebetweenthePhilippineandChinesegovernmentsregardingChinas
territorialclaimsintheSouthChinaSeas,tensionsintheareaarecomingtoa
head.Thoughlaws,FreedomofNavigationOperationsandancientmapshave
beentheprimarymeansofcontestinthisdebate,insufficientattentionisbeing
giventoarguablythemostimportantissue:fish.Asamajorconsumeroffish
stocks,Chinaisdeeplyinterestedinsecuringthefishingrightsforitselfand
controllingaccessofothernationstothearea.Ensuringadequatefuturesupplies
offishbothdomesticallythroughaquacultureandexternallythroughenforcement
ofterritorialclaimsoverlargeswathesofopenseacontributestoChinesefood
security,whichhasrepeatedlybeenlistedamajorpriorityforChinastopleaders.
Lessofawall,ChineseclaimsincludingtheNineDashLinearemoreofa
GreatFishnetswallowingtheSouthChinaSea.

Copyright*|2016**|TheJamestownFoundation|*,Allrightsreserved.
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 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 04/26/201612:26:49PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ITEMSONNOTEApril26]Fwd:BermanonPutin'scultofsecrecyinForeignAffairs.....ODDD[OnChornobylCommemorations&RU
Subject:
BanofCrimeanTatarMejlis]......FIVEFROMPB[RO-BG-UABrigadeRuOBonPutinEuro-visionLackRUWaronCTwhileWe...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,April26,201610:20AM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSONNOTEApril26]Fwd:BermanonPutin'scultofsecrecyinForeignAffairs.....ODDD[OnChornobyl
Commemorations&RUBanofCrimeanTatarMejlis]......FIVEFROMPB[RO-BG-UABrigadeRuOBonPutinEuro-visionLackRUWaron
CTwhileWe...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at1:14PM
Subject:[ITEMSONNOTEApril26]Fwd:BermanonPutin'scultofsecrecyinForeignAffairs.....ODDD[OnChornobyl
Commemorations&RUBanofCrimeanTatarMejlis]......FIVEFROMPB[RO-BG-UABrigadeRuOBonPutinEuro-vision
LackRUWaronCTwhileWestwatchesNATOE.flankedtestedProvocationsinOdes/aagain]......ODDD[Brookings/Pifer
on"UAFatigueRedux"]......Euro-maidan[ApossibleresponsetoPifer|TopCzechpoliticianKarlSchwarzenberg:thefateof
EuropewillbedecidedinUkraine
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:IlanBerman<berman@afpc.org>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at11:39AM
Subject:BermanonPutin'scultofsecrecyinForeignAffairs
To:IlanBerman<berman@afpc.org>

ClosingTheArchives
WhatRussiasRenewedSecrecySaysAboutPutin

IlanBerman

April24,2016

ItiswidelyknownthatRussiahasadifficultrelationshipwithitspast.Inthequarter-century
sincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion,successivegovernmentsinMoscowhavebeen
conspicuouslyconsistentinskirtingseriousquestionsabouttherepressivenatureofthenow-
defunctSovietstateandminimizingtheshadowthatitcontinuestocastovertheKremlin.

Inthis,Russiahaslaggedbehinditsformervassals.The1990ssawmorethanafewSoviet
statesandsatellites(amongthem,theCzechRepublic,Estonia,andLithuania)beginthe
difficultprocessof"lustration,"thatis,purgingformercommunistofficialsfrompubliclifeand
comingtogripswithSoviet-eraexcesses.ItwasnotuntillateinthedecadethatPresident
BorisYeltsin'sadministrationtookahaltingstepinthedirectionofgreatertransparencywhen
itgrudginglyopenedsomeofthepreviouslysecretarchivesofSovietdictatorJosefStalin.

Themovewaspoliticalinnatureafteryearsofpromisingtoprovideanaccountofhis
country'stotalitarianpast,anailingYeltsinwaseagertofinallydosoinordertooutmaneuver
hispoliticalopponentsandingratiatehimselfwiththeWest.Overtheyearsthatfollowed,the
once-impenetrableIronCurtainbegantoslowlyrust,givingupsomeofthemostsordid
secretsofSovietrule,fromStalin'scapriciouspoliticaledictstothegeopoliticalmachinations
behindtheUnion'snumerousinterventionsinAsiaandtheThirdWorld.

Onanintellectuallevel,theseinsightswereaboontoresearchersandhistoriansseekingto
betterunderstandSovietmotivationsandactions.Onapersonalone,theyprovidedmuch
neededclosureforatleastsomeofthefamiliesofthemillionsofvictimsofStalin'snotorious
purges.Intheprocess,Russiamovedhoweverslightlytowardamorehonestaccountingof
itspast.

Today,however,thegovernmentofYeltsin'ssuccessor,VladimirPutin,isunmistakablyheading
intheoppositedirection.Earlierthisyear,theRussiangovernmentcommissionresponsiblefor
overseeing"statesecrets"officiallyrejectedapetitionbyabroadcoalitionofpolitical
activiststoopenthearchivesoftheKGBandotherSoviet-erasecurityservices.Initsrefusal,
thecommissiondeclaredthatthefilesinquestion"continuetohaverelevancetothepresent
dayandtheircirculationcouldbringharmtotheRussianFederation,"anditmandatedthat
therecordsremainsecretuntilatleast2044.

Inrecentdays,theKremlinhasgonefurtherstill.InearlyApril,theInterfaxnewsagency
reportedthatPutinissuedanedictformallyplacingROSARCHIV,theRussianfederalarchival
agency,underhispersonaloversight.Themove,theKremlinexplained,wastakenonthe
groundsthatthematerialsadministeredbyROSARCHIVpossess"specialvalue"andrepresent
the"historicallegacyoftheRussianempireandthereaftertheSovietUnion."

Asscholarshavenoted,Putin'sdecisionraisessomeintriguingquestions,amongthem
whethertheROSARCHIVcollectioncontainsincriminatingevidencerelatingtoPutinandhis
scandal-riddencoterie.Butthemostperniciouseffectofthenewedictwillundoubtedlybethe
pressuresonhistoricalmemory,becausePutin'sdirectivemeansthat,asapracticalmatter,
thelegacyofthecountry'sSovietpastwillhenceforthbecomemoredifficulttoaccess
perhapssignificantlyso.

Notably,thisfallsinlinewithotherattemptsbythePutingovernmenttoreshapethepolitical
perceptionsofordinaryRussians.Thepasthalf-decadehasseenadramaticconstrictionof
freepoliticalandintellectualspacewithintheRussianFederation,manifestedineverything
fromonerousnewrestrictionsontheactivitiesofnon-governmentalorganizationstoarbitrary
pressureonWesternpro-democracyactivistswithinthecountry.Theobjectivehasbeen
singularandunremitting:toreshapethealreadyunequalbalanceofpowerbetweenthe
Russiangovernmentanditspeopledecisivelyinfavoroftheformerandtosquelchalternative
politicalthoughtintheprocess.Andbecausehistoricaltruthisessentialtoanysuchinquiry,
theKremlinhasdevotedconsiderabletimeandenergytosilencinguncomfortablequestions
abouttheexcessesofRussia'stotalitarianpast.

ThatshouldraiseconcernsamongWesternpolicymakersandproponentsofRussian
democracyalikebecauseofwhatittellsusaboutRussia'sfuturedirection.Thosewhoforget
history,theoldaxiomposits,aredoomedtorepeatit.TheeffectiveclosureofRussia's
archivesisthereforeanominousstepthatmakesafurtherslideintorepressionallthemore
likely.

That,however,islikelypreciselywhatPutinandhiscompatriotshaveinmind.

ILANBERMANisVicePresidentoftheAmericanForeignPolicyCouncilinWashington,D.C.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-04-24/closing-archives

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at11:18AM
Subject:Ukraine:WP(2),.......
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

Anearlierversionofthisarticle,aswellasthelinkedonebelowHowScientistsareKeepingChernobyls(sic)
RadiationContained,canalsobefoundintodaysWPprintedition,alongwithapageonephoto.Many
30thanniversaryChornobylarticlescanbefoundintheNYT,RFE/RLandothermedia.

TheWashingtonPost
ByAndrewRoth

April26at8:41AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/30-years-after-chernobyl-disaster-containment-is-nearing-
completion/2016/04/24/fa6888a4-064f-11e6-bfed-ef65dff5970d_story.html

KIEV,UkraineAsUkrainianssolemnlycommemoratedthe30thanniversaryofthe1986Chernobylnuclearpowerplant
accidentonTuesday,PresidentPetroPoroshenkosaidthatRussiassupportforseparatistsinthecountryseastposedthethreat
ofarepetitionoftheatomiccatastrophe.

TheremarkscameatChernobyl,whereaninternationalefforttosealthedestroyedremainsofthenuclearreactorthatexplodedin
Ukraine30yearsagoisfinallyclosetocompletion.Remarkably,despitethepoliticalrevolutionandarmedconflictthathave
rockedthecountrysince2014,itsclosetobeingonschedule.

OnTuesday,PoroshenkostressedthepoliticalimportanceofnuclearpowerforUkraine,sayingthecountrywouldneithertoday,
nortomorrow,haltnuclearreactorsbecauseoftheimportanceofmaintainingthecountrysenergyindependence,implyingaway
fromRussiangas.

[ThisishowscientistsarekeepingChernobylsradiationcontained]

Standinginsideagiganticdomethatwillsoonbeinstalledoverthereactor,PoroshenkosaidthatRussianaggressionhad
underminedthetrustofnon-nucleargovernmentsinthenonproliferationoftheseweapons,andthreatenedtherepeatofanuclear
catastropheinourcountry.Henotedthatfightinghadtakenplaceseveralhundredkilometersfromthenuclearpowerplantinthe
cityofZaporozhiye.

ThecompletionoftheNewSafeConfinement,oftencalledthearch,couldcontaintheradiationfrommankindsworstnuclear
catastropheforacentury,saystheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment,whichhasledtheproject.Butitwillalso
markahandovertoUkrainesfractiousandunderfundedauthorities,whoareexpectedtotacklefuturewastemanagementattheir
ownexpense.

ThatmaynotreassureNadiyaMakyrevych.

Forthreedecades,shehasbeenlivingwiththeconsequencesoftheChernobylexplosion.ShecanrecallthatmorninginlateApril
1986,andthesmallsignsthatsomethingwaswrongintheworkerstownwhereshelived.Thetinny,metallictasteinhermouth.
Thewayher6-month-olddaughtersleptsodeeplyafterbreast-feeding.

ButtherewerenosirenstheninPripyat,nohintofthemagnitudeofthenuclearcatastropheplayingoutjustmilesaway.Soviet
authoritiesdidnotimmediatelyreportthebotchedexperimentatareactorinChernobylsnuclearpowerplant,whichreleaseda
radioactivecloudoverEasternEuropelargerthanthatofthe2011disasterinFukushima,Japan.Ukraineisstillcopingwiththe
effectstoday.

Bythetimewewereevacuated,wehadbeenexposedfor36hours,MakyrevychsaidinaninterviewinKievthismonth,her
speechinterruptedbyahackingcough.Myentirefamilyhasbeenaffectedbythis.Weareallsick.Mydaughter,myson,my
husbandandme.

Makyrevych,whorequiresregularmedicaltreatment,complainedofamonthlyhandoutofjust$60fromtheUkrainian
government,apaymentthathasntalwaysbeenontime.

AndnowtheauthoritiesinKievwillhavetoshoulderthewholeburden.

[Watch:WhatChernobyllookslikenowfromadrone]

TheinternationalprojectwillsealinsidetheNewSafeConfinementboththewreckedreactorNo.4andthetemporaryprotective
sarcophagusinstalledin1986.Resemblingamassivehangar,the360-foot-tallbuildingstwosideswillwheelintoplacenext
year.Oncethestructureissealed,roboticcranesinsidewilldisassemblethedestroyedreactorandmanagethedisposalofalava-
likemassfilledwithuranium.

Ukraineinthepasttwoyearshasbeenrackedbyapro-Europeanpoliticalrevolution,theannexationofCrimeabyRussiaanda
grindingwarineasternUkrainethathasleftmorethan9,100peopledead.Inflationandausteritymeasureshavemadelifeharder
foraverageUkrainians,andtheparliamenthasbeenparalyzedbyinfighting.

Butlocatedfarfromthefrontlinesandbackedby1.5billioneurosinfunding,muchofitfromtheEBRD,theEuropean
CommissionandtheUnitedStates,theprojecthaslargelybeeninsulatedfromthepoliticalchaostakingplaceinKiev,60milesto
thesouth.

VinceNovak,theEBRDsheadofnuclearsafety,saidinaninterviewthatdisruptionstotheprojectbecauseofpoliticalturmoilin
Ukrainewereminimal.WhenformerpresidentViktorYanukovychfledthecountryaftermassprotestsinKievin2014,U.S.
contractorshaltedworkforonlyafewweeks,hesaid.Frenchcontractorsdidntstopatall.

TheprojecthasrequiredcarefulcoordinationbetweenthevariousadministrativebureaucraciesresponsibleforChernobylin
Ukraine:theheadofthedecommissionedplant,theadministratorfortheexclusionzonearoundtheplant,theMinistryofEcology
andNaturalResources,and,wherethepoliticscomesin,Novaksaid,theMinistryofFinanceandparliament,whichapprove
funding.

Askedwhetherarecentcabinetreshufflewouldaffectprogress,helaughed.

IhavelostcountofhowmanyministersinchargeofthisIhaveworkedwith...adozenandahalf,includingfourinthelasttwo
years?hesaidonthesidelinesofarecentforumattheNationalTechnicalUniversityofUkraineinKiev.Oneoftherolesthatthe
bankplayshereismakingsurethatalltheplayersthatyouneedarekindofrowinginthesamedirection.

Thatroleisquicklycomingtoaclose,astheEBRDplanstocompletethecontainmentstructureinNovember.Onceitis
operationalin2017,thebanksays,theinvolvementoftheinternationalcommunityisnotenvisaged.

ItwillbeforUkrainetodevelopanationalstrategyfornuclearwasteforthenextdecades,theEBRDsaidinastatement.

ThedetailsofhowUkrainewilltacklethatprocesshavenotbeendrafted,andsomearenervous.IgorGramotkin,headofthe
decommissionedplantatChernobyl,hascalledforworkerstobeginwastedisposalasquicklyaspossibleafterconstructionis
finished,whiletheprojectstillhasinternationalsupport.

Itisanextremelyexpensiveprocess,hesaidofthewastedisposalinremarkstoTheWashingtonPost,andunfortunatelywith
thecurrenteconomicsituationinUkraine,Idontthinkthatwecancarrythisoutwithoutinternationalsupport.

[HowtheSovietUnionstayedsilentduringtheChernobyldisaster]

OnMonday,theUnitedStatesannouncedthatitwaspledginganadditional$10milliontotheChernobylrestorationproject,on
topof$400millionWashingtonhasalreadycommitted.

Thecompletionofconstructionwillprobablyhavemajorconsequencesforasmallarmyofmorethan2,000workers,manyof
whomwillprobablynolongerbeneededoncetheprojectisfinished.ButasUkraineseekstocutsocialbenefitsandenact
austeritymeasurestocomplywiththeInternationalMonetaryFund,thesituationappearstoughestforthesurvivorsoftheaccident
30yearsago.

Someofthesurvivingliquidators,thefirstresponderswhosuffereddebilitatingorevenlethaldosesofradiationwhilefightingto
containthefallout,haveprotestedtheirtreatment.

Morethan2millionpeopleinUkraineareonHealthMinistryrollsforbenefitsbecauseoftheaccident.Ukrainesgovernmentand
civil-societyorganizationsareholdingeventstomarkthe30thanniversaryoftheexplosion.

InOctober,BelarusianwriterSvetlanaAlexievichwonthe2015NobelPrizeinliterature,inpartforher1997oralhistorytitled
VoicesFromChernobyl.

Thenightsareverylonghereinthewinter,thewifeofoneoftheliquidatorssaid,accordingtoAlexievich.Wellsit,sometimes,
andcount:Whosdied?

TheWashingtonPost

CourtinRussia-occupiedCrimeabansTatarassembly

ByAssociatedPress

April26at9:00AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/court-in-russia-occupied-crimea-bans-tatar-assembly/2016/04/26/d2c34348-
0bae-11e6-bc53-db634ca94a2a_story.html

MOSCOWTheSupremeCourtintheRussia-occupiedpeninsulaofCrimeahasbannedtheCrimeanTatarlegislatureas
extremist.

Tuesdaysbanfollowsmonthsofpersecution,expulsionsandjailingofprominentTatarleadersaswellasrank-and-fileprotesters.

RussiasJusticeMinistryearlierthismonthruledtheMejliswasanextremistgroup,pavingthewayfortheoutrightban.

CrimeanTatars,whosufferedamassdeportationatthehandsofSovietauthoritiesin1944,werearguablytheonlyforceopposing
theRussianannexationofCrimeain2014fromUkraine.

Tatars,includingprominentleaderswithaSovietdissidentbackgroundlikeMustafaDzhemilev,wereinitiallyinvitedtocontribute
tothenewgovernmentinCrimea.ButaswiftbanonTatarassembliesandtheheavy-handednessoftheRussiangovernmentputa
strainoneffortstoworktogether.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at10:33AM
Subject:Ukraine,Romania,BulgariaEyeJointMilitaryBrigade
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Smartmoveandsignofthefuture--Frontlinenationsbeginpreparingjointmilitarydefense,thusimprovingtheirowncredible
militaryandhybridcapabilitieswhiledefusingpressurestojointhenuclearclubastheonlyalternativeagainstamuchlarger,
aggressiveenemy.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/2016/04/25/ukraine-romania-bulgaria-eye-joint-military-brigade/83501138/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at10:47AM
Subject:PresidentObama:VladimirPutinnot"entirelypersuaded"onideaofEuropeanunity-CBSNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

[ED:PeteBmayseemalittleroughonPOTUS,buthewasRe-electBO-JBChairinCaliheisnowsimply'ventinga
littlebit']

OK,sogivingPutinCrimeadidn'tsettlehimdown.Well,Mr.President,youstillhaveafewmonthsMaybeyoucanstill
achieve"PeaceintheWorldonMyWatch"ifyougivehim,hmmm,maybeFlorida?Helikesbeaches,youknow.

Wow!Whatifitworked?YoumightevengetthatsecondNobelPeacePrize!Youcouldmakebookendsoutofthem!Oh!Peaceisjustsooo
exciting!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-obama-russia-vladimir-putin-not-entirely-persuaded-on-idea-of-european-unity/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at12:04PM
Subject:RussiabansMejlis,declareswaronCrimeanTatarpeoplewhiletheWestwatches::khpg.org
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

RussiacontinuesitsThirdWaveofGenocideagainsttheCrimeanTartars.TheCrimeanTartarsarecaughtbetweenRussia's
congenitalpredationandtheWest'schroniccowardice.ObamaandMerkelhaveeffectivelyconcededCrimeatoRussia.Their
"heroic"pronouncementsonsanctionsagainstRussianolongerevenmentionCrimea.ItisnowuptoUkraineandTurkeyto
defendtheCrimeanTartars.UkrainebecausetheCrimeanTartarsareUkrainiansandTurkeybecausetheyareethnicTurkic.
RussiahasalreadystarteditswaronTurkey,sotheTurksmightaswelljointheUkrainiansinajointfrontlinedefensethatwould
includetheCrimeanTartarhomelandinUkraine.

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1461673479

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at10:35AM
Subject:NATOsEasternFrontIsBeingTested|ForeignPolicy
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Spendingmoreoftheirown(European)moneyontheirowndefensewouldn'thurt.....[ED:Otherwise,theisolationisttripe
DonnieTandBernieSaresellingmightstartcatchingon!!!]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/25/natos-eastern-front-is-being-tested-poland-warsaw-summit/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at11:45AM
Subject:Attackonprotesters,grenadeblastreportedinOdesa
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

OdesaisfillingupwithRussianagentsandmilitaryprovocateurswhoarestartingconflictsanywheretheycan,regardlessof
whetherthepeopleincitedareUkrainianorRussian.Thepurposeistogetnewsandphotosofconflict(thebloodier,thebetter)
onfrontpagesaroundtheworld.It'sthatsimple.Twoyearsago,theireffortsbackfired.IntheoldLeninistmantraofonestep
backwardandtwostepsforward,theyarenowtryingtopaintasmartyrsRussianagentswhodiedinaselfinflictedfiretwoyears
ago.Ukrainiansneedtobemindfulasthistime,theRussiansarebetterprepared,betterorganizedandhavetheirmediaducks
linedupandpaidfor.ItwillbeatestofSakashvili'sabilitiestokeeppeace.Let'shopehe'slearnedtostayoutoftraps.Expect
Odesatobeloadedwiththem.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/attack-on-protesters-grenade-blast-reported-in-odesa-412741.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at11:18AM
Subject:.........Brookings
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

IthinkStevePiferspiecebelowgetsitjustaboutright.WhileIdoubtiftheU.S.wouldcompletelyabandonUkraine,the
levelandenthusiasmofU.S.politicalsupportandconcreteassistancereallydomatter!Also,hispointonMinsktracks
withwhatIvebeenarguing.NotwithstandingMinsksflaws(andgrossRussiannon-compliance),itisthe
onlyrealisticalternative,atleastintheshortterm.Therefore,Ukraineshoulddowhatitreasonablycantoshowits
commitmenttoMinskinordertoensuretheEUextenditssanctionsonRussiathissummer.EUrefusaltodosowould
removecrucialleverageonRussiaandthatcouldhaveobviousnegativeconsequences.OD

Brookings

WillUkrainedashitshopesforWesternsupport?discussestheneedforthegovernmentinKyivtomoveonreform
andanti-corruptionmeasuresorseearevivalofUkrainefatigueintheWest:

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/04/25-us-support-for-ukraine-pifer

StevenPifer|April25,20161:05pm

WillUkrainedashitshopesforWesternsupport?

Ukrainehasgonethroughalotthepast30months.Despiteformidablechallenges,ithasmadeimportantprogress,bothin
containingRussian-backedseparatismintheDonbasandinbeginningneededreforms.Ukrainiansdeservecreditforthis.

TheUnitedStatesandEuropeshouldsupportUkraine,whosesuccessorfailurewillhavemajorimplicationsforthefutureof
EuropeandtheEuropeansecurityorder.Butanoteofcaution:Kievshouldnottakethatsupportforgranted.WhattheUkrainian
leadershipdoesordoesnotdowillaffectthatsupportandwhetherthereisarevivalofUkrainefatigueintheWest.

TheoutcomeoftheApril6DutchreferendumontheUkraine-EuropeanUnionassociationagreementwasanunfortunatewarning
sign.EvenifthereferendumwasfirstandforemostavoteabouttheEuropeanUnion,Kievneedstoconsiderhowitsactionsare
seenintheWest.

Ukrainemustact

First,Ukrainespolitics.AnAmericanhastoraisethiswithadegreeofhumility,giventhedysfunctionalnatureofpoliticstodayin
theUnitedStates.Thatsaid,Kievhasspentmuchofthepastseveralmonthsinpoliticalcrisis.TheWestwatchedandwondered
howUkrainecouldaffordsuchalongperiodofpoliticking.Withanewprimeministerandcabinetnowinplace,Kievmustmove
pastmaneuveringforpoliticalpositionandturntogoverningandsolvingUkrainesproblems.Otherwise,Westernpatiencemayrun
out.Itisnotunlimited.

Second,reform.Thepost-Maidangovernmenttooksomeseriousandpoliticallydifficultsteps.Butmuchmoreremainstobe
done,bothonreformandespeciallyonfightingcorruption.Ukrainecannotaffordtobogdownandappearunwillingorunableto
makethereformsnecessarytoachieveitsprofessedgoalofbecomingamodern,democratic,market-orientedEuropeanstate.
HighexpectationsfollowedbydisappointmentisamoviethatUkrainiansandtheWesthaveseenbefore:withPresidentKuchmain
1994,theYushchenkocabinetin2000,andtheYushchenko-Tymoshenkotandemin2005.Thispatternshouldnotberepeated.
WhatwouldhappentoWesternsupportiftheUnitedStatesandEuropeconcludethatUkraineis,forlackofabetterword,
unfixable?

Third,theMinskagreements.TheseparatistsandRussiabearoverwhelmingresponsibilityforthefactthatsolittleprogresshas
beenmadeonimplementingtheMinskarrangements.Moreover,itisdifficulttoimplementotherprovisionsofMinskwithouta
stableceasefire.ButitmightnotbewiseforKievtobelieveitneeddonothinguntilthesecurityconditionsaremet.TheKremlin
seekstoportrayUkraineasresponsibleforthefailureofMinskimplementation,andsomeEuropeanUnionstatesdesirenothing
morethantoendtheeconomicsanctionsagainstMoscow.KievshouldshowitscommitmenttoMinsk.Forexample,theRada
couldpassalawontheconductofelectionsinoccupiedDonbas,includinglayingouttheconditionsnecessaryforcompetitiveand
democraticelections.IfUkrainedoesnothing,itincreasestheriskthattheEuropeanUnionwillnotfindconsensusonextending
sanctionsinJuly.ThatwouldcosttheWestimportantleveragewithRussia.

ThroughtheWesternlookingglass

Fourth,Ukrainesgeopoliticalposition.OnesometimesgetsafeelingthatUkraineselitehaveaninflatedsenseofthecountrys
geopoliticalimportancebetweentheWestandRussiathattheybelievethattheircountryistooimportanttofailandthat,
regardlessofwhatUkrainesleadershipdoes,theWestwillstickwithKievoutoffearthatitmightotherwiseturntoMoscow.That
couldbeamistake.TheeliteshouldnotthinkthattheycanengageinendlesspoliticalgamesandassumetheWestwillalwaysbe
there,tokeepUkrainefromfallingintoMoscowsarms.Iftheydo,theymayonedayfindthattheWesthastiredandturned
away.

Finally,anewAmericanpresidentwilltakeofficeinJanuary2017.Heorshewillwanttofocusondomesticissuesbutwillalso
faceafullinboxofforeignpolicyquestions,includingchaosintheMiddleEast,arisingandmoreassertiveChina,anuclear-armed
NorthKorea,andabellicoseRussia.WhatkindofUkrainewillthatpresidentsee?Acountrythatisjustmuddlingby,moving
slowlyonreformandwithuncertainprospects?Inthatcase,thenewpresidentmaywellbetemptedtoleaveittotheEuropeans.
If,ontheotherhand,adeterminedUkrainianleadershipismakingrealprogressonreformandtransformingthecountryintoa
modernEuropeanstate,whilefendingoffRussianaggression,thatisapotentialsuccessstorythatwillattractWhiteHouseinterest,
engagement,andsupport.ThekindofUkrainethatthenewAmericanpresidentwillseenextyeardependscriticallyondecisions
madenowinKiev.

ItwouldbeatragedyfortheWestbutespeciallyforKievwereUkrainefatiguetoreturn.Ukrainesleadershiphasthepowerto
preventthat.

AversionofthisarticleappearedinRussianintheUkrainianjournalNovoyeVremya

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,Apr26,2016at11:49AM
Subject:SUMSITALLUP[ED:PossibleanswertoPifer'spiecenotetheSchwarzbergthinksUSisleavingmorethan
UAtowitheronthevine....itmaybeleavingEuropegenerallytoitsowndevicesagainstthe'Vlad-man'.....seein
BLUE]
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TopCzechpoliticianKarl
Schwarzenberg:thefateof
EuropewillbedecidedinUkraine

2016/04/20ANALYSIS&OPINION,NEWS,RUSSIA,UKRAINE

LeadingCzechpoliticalfigureKarlSchwarzenbergsaysthatthatUkrainesfateanditswaragainstRussianaggressionwill
decidethefutureofEurope.SchwarzenbergisformerleaderofTOP09partyanditscandidateforPresidentoftheCzech
Republicinthe2013election.Heisnotedforhispro-EuropeanviewsandsupportofUkraine.

SpeakingrecentlyonCzechTelevision,inresponsetoaquestionwhetherUkrainewillreturntotheRussiansphereof
influence,Schwarzenberg,chairmanoftheCommitteeonForeignAffairsoftheLowerHouseoftheParliamentoftheCzech
Republic,stated:Yes,itwillunlesswepaymoreattentiontowhatshappening.ThesituationinUkrainewillalso
determineourfuture,forthenthebalanceofpowerinEuropewillchange.IfUkraineagainstartstakingorders
fromMoscowandUkraineisacountrywithapproximatelythesamesizeandpopulationasFrancethe
balanceofpowerinEuropewillchange.GiventhattheUnitedStatesisgraduallyleavingEuropeandturning
itsattentiontowardsthePacificregions,Iknowwho(inthiscase)willbecomethesupremeleaderinEuropein
the21stcentury.Ithinkyoucanfigurethatoutveryquickly.Itsnotdifficulttoseewhatwillhappen.
AccordingtoSchwarzenberg,theEuropeanCommissionsdecisiontooffervisa-freetraveltocitizensofUkraineisonlya
gesture,andnotthebestthingtodoatthepresentmoment.HeclaimsitismuchmoreimportantforEuropetohelpUkraine
economicallywemustreachintoourpockets,butwerenotveryhappytodothis.

AsforsanctionsagainstRussia,hesaystheymustremaininforceforalongperiodoftime,asitwaswithIran,where
sanctionsfinallyprovedtobesuccessfulandforcedittosurrenderandnegotiateitsnuclearprogram.Schwarzenbergwarns:

Russiawillnotsurvivethesanctionsforever.However,RussiaisfirmlyconvincedthatEuropeanindustrialists
andotherinterestedpartieswillstronglyattackthesanctionsuntiltheyreabolishedsothatMoscowdoesnt
havetobackdown.
Letsbefrank.ThisisanactofRussianaggressionagainstUkraine,andthatswhatitshouldbecalled!.

 From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/21/201603:41:43PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes21January2016
Attachments: IN21Jan16.docx

InternetNotes21January2016

MoreKadyrov(Milov,Piontkovskiy,Latynina,Shevtsovaandmore)

RussiancelebritiesbackKadyrov

ViktorIvanovdenieshewasinvolvedintheLitvinekomurder(TheLitvinenkoreport:Putinlikelyapprovedthemurder)

TheRussianeconomy(EconomistSergeyAleksashenkosayswestillhaventseenthebottomMedvedevsaysthegovernment
willaltertheanti-crisisplanPutinmeetswithsmallbusinessownersNabiullinawillmeetwithbankersontherubleLevada:
RussiansexpectthegovernmenttomakestabilizingtheeconomicandpoliticalsituationapriorityCapitalflightdeclinesRussians
adapttopoverty)

TheKremlindeniesarublecollapse(Kudrinwarnsof$16/barreloil)

PutinslamsLeninforplantinganatomicbombthateventuallybroughtaboutcollapse

MoreKadyrov(Milov,Piontkovskiy,Latynina,Shevtsovaandmore)

Seeyesterdaysnotes

MilovthinksVovaisnervousabouttheelectionscomingupthisyearthesignaltotheliberalssentlastyear(Comment:The
Nemtsovmurder)wasntenough,soanothersignalmustbesentviaKadyrov:
http://www.facebook.com/milov.vladimir/posts/994514740620201

AtwitterexchangePiontkovskiysaysthateverystatementfromKadyrovweakensPutinandstrengthensthesiloviky,whowant
toshutdownKadyrov:http://mobile.twitter.com/haha_losers/status/689784216763174912

Whenaskedwhothosesilovikymightbe,PiontkovskiysaysitstheFSBandthearmy,butwegetanexchangefromothersthat
seesBortnikov,Patrushev,andIvanov(Comment:IthinkthatsSergeyIvanov)aspossiblebeneficiaries.Oneofthe
participantsintheexchangesaysthatIvanovgavetheordertokillNemtsovinthenameofPutininordertosetupKadyrov
(Comment:Atthetime,IthoughtKadyrovandcompanyhadhelpfromZolotov,butthoughtitpossiblethatsomeone
likeBortnikovorIvanovhadpriorknowledgeofwhatwasgoingonandeitherletithappenorquietlywentalong,
appearingtogiveagoahead,hopingtosetupKadyrov).

AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

,
""

Ha-Ha@haha_losers

@apiontkovsky@navalny?
AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

@neodin_takoy

Ha-Ha@haha_losers

@apiontkovsky
.,.

@sfrandzi

@haha_losers@apiontkovsky,,
.

HerewehaveinstructionsfromChechenofficialsonhowtoorganizeapro-Kadyrovdemonstration:http://www.znak.com/2016-
01-20/v_groznom_chinovnikov_sgonyayut_na_miting_v_podderzhku_glavy_chechni

..ItcomesfromsomeoneworkingintheChechenPressMinistrywhosaysthattheministerisfocusingonattackingthetraitor
liberals,demandingthateveryonetakepartintheinformationwarorgetoutTheministerisorganizingaFlashmobin
supportofKadyroveveryoneisrequiredtoattendandbringonepersonalong.RequirementsincludephotosofRamzanandhis
father,AkhmatKadyrovandslogans(alistispartofthepackageasample:NavalniyisAmericasfriendandRussiasenemy!
Kadyrovisthestrengthofthecountry!)TheFlashmobdemoissupposedtobeheldtodayinGrozny

MorefromLatynina:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71521.html

ShedoesntthinktheKremlinapprovedKadyrovandcompanyscommentsordemonstrationstheproofisthatcentralTVis
sayingnothingabouteither.KadyrovspastremarkshavepromptedawaveofsupportfromDumadeputies,butnotsothistime.
WehavePeskovscomments(Seeyesterdaysnotes),butthatsit.TheresnothinglikethePRcampaignthattookaimedat
Ukrainians,theTurks,orISIS.

Sothewaveofverbalattacksonthenon-systemicoppositionwasKadyrovsideaLatyninaponderswhatKadyrovmightbe
upto.KadyrovmadehisremarksjustastheInvestigativeCommitteenamedMukhudinov,whoisprobablydead,astheorganizer
oftheNemtsovmurder.Therearelaborprotestsaroundthecountrymedicalworkerswhohaventbeenpaid,pensioners
protesting.Thecountryisheadedfortheabyssanditsnotacertaintythatthesilovikywillbepreparedtofireonpensioners.So
itmightbenecessarytoremindPutinthattherearepeoplewhoarereadytodothatifneededandsomeofthemhavealotof
experienceshootingatRussians.
LatyninagoesontosaythatKadyrovispushingtomaintainhispieceofashrinkingeconomicpiethesituationisthecountryis
tenseandthereisademandforpeoplewhoinreturnfortheirsharewillsolveproblems.

LatyninawindsupwithanothercomparisonofthebarbariangeneralsandtheirrelationshipswiththelateRomanemperors,the
barbariansdominatingtheRomansevenastheyservedtheemperor,andthePutin-Kadyrovrelationship(seethenotesfrom18
January).

DelimkhanovInstagramfromthespotoftheNemtsovmurder:http://www.instagram.com/p/BAurzouymfI/ItsDelimkhnaovand
someofhiscronieschantingAllahuAkhbarandotherthingsLatyninareferredtoitinherNovayapiece

SputnikiPogromcomparessomebitsfromPravda1938andKadyrovscomments(carriedinIzvestiyaandspreadaroundafter)
todayPravdacallingforspiesandsaboteurstobeshot,KadyrovsayingthatJackalsmustbepunished:
http://sputnikipogrom.com/ussr/49527/izvestia-vs-pravda/#.VqCL-Mdkh0s

LiliyaShevtsovaonGrefandKadyrovasblowstoRussianvlast:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/shevtsova/1697596-echo/Gref
informedusthatRussiahaslostoutineconomiccompetitionandhedoubtstheabilityofthesystemofmanagementhehelped
createtosurvive(Seethe15Januarynotes)KadyrovisofferinghimselfandotherfootsoldiersasPutinsoprinchnina,notonly
tosolvethenon-systemicoppositionproblem,buttorestoreorderintheeliteGrefhasmadeitunderstoodthattheliberal
technocratsdisavowanyresponsibilityforthestateofthecountryinthemeantime,anewsystemandanewbossintheKremlin
areneededThus,GrefdeliveredablowtothesystemKadyrovsanticspointtoweaknessandconfusionintheKremlin.His
styleinprofessinghisloyaltysmacksofblackmail.ButtheKremlincannotallowthetailtowagthedog.Thepowerdepartment
eliteespeciallycannotallowthis.WhatKadyrovisdoingissuicidal,butitwillbesuicidalfortheKremlinifitcannotmakehim
stop.SotwoofthebulwarksofKremlinsupportareshakingthebuildingandcracksarebeginningtoappearinthefaade

Comment:Thatscertainlypossible,asIvewrittenmyself.Butatthispoint,atleastinregardtoKadyrov,Ithink
BelkovskiyisprobablyrightwhathesdonesofariswithintheboundariesoftheunderstandingKadyrovhaswith
theKremlin.Ifhehassomeoneelsekilledwell,maybethatsadifferentstory,asIthinkPutinwasrattledbythe
Nemtsovmurderandwesawtheentirepowerstructureshakenbytherumblingswithintheelitethatfollowed.Ithink
thereissomethingtotheblackmailangleKadyrovisprofessinghisloyaltyandhisavailabilityfordirtywork,but
hisstatementsalsopointtopossibleactions(likeanotherkilling)thatcouldshakeupvlast.PutinneedsKadyrov,or
thinkshedoes,tomaintainstabilityintheNorthCaucasus,nomatterwhatkindofpainintheneckheis,atleastso
far.Thus,PutinhasnotreactedstronglybyremovingKadyrov,thoughIwonderedlastyearwhethertheKremlin
simplythoughtithadnorealalternativeandalsowhetherPutinthoughtthatremovingKadyrovwouldmeanhewas
discreditingoneofhisbiggestsuccessstoriesinChechnya.Istillthink,however,thatKadyrovandChechnyaare
realchinksinPutinsarmorthatcouldcausethingstounravel,asnotedabove.

Asnotedearlier,theKremlinhasbeenverykindtoKadyrovlately,transferringsomeRosneftassetstoChechencontrol(Seethe
20Januarynotes).Heresmoreonthat,itemssentbyareader:

ChGTRKGroznyyTVnews1900gmt25Dec15

4.0552ChechnyaplanstobuildanoilrefineryifRosnefthandsitsChechensubsidiaryChechenneftekhimpromovertothe
Chechengovernment.EearlierKadyrovsentRussianPresidentVladimirPutinarequest,askingtheRussiangovernmenttogive
ChechnyathesharesinChechenneftekhimprom.PutininstructedtheRussiangovernmenttoconsidersuchapossibility.

Pro-MoscowChechenleaderRamzanKadyrovhassaidhisregionwillcontinueimplementinginvestmentprojectsdespitethe
economiccrisisinRussia,theofficialwebsiteoftheChechenleaderandgovernment(chechnya.gov.ru)reportedon29December.
"Atotalof96investmentprojectsarebeingimplementedintheregion.Weseenoreasontosupposethatanyofthemshouldbe
cancelled.Allofthemaresuccessfullybeingimplemented,"Kadyrovwasquotedassayingathisannualnewsconferenceinthe
ChechencapitalGroznyyon28December.

Chechnyaisplanningtobuildarefinery,governorRamzanKadyrovtoldapressconference."Weareplanningtoattractinvestment
tobuildarefineryiftheChechenneftekhimprom(Chechenpetrochemicalcomplex)ishandedovertous.Weareinnegotiations
withRosneftandthinkthattheywillsupportus.Inanycase,wehaveinvestorswhoarewillingtoinvest.Theconstructionofthe
refinerywillbringadditionaltaxes,jobs,nottomentionthedevelopmentoftheoilindustry.And,ofcourse,forourregion,itwillbe
agreatsuccess,"theheadofChechnyasaid.(ChechnyaSegodnya,29Dec15)

Oilindustry

KadyrovsaidthatChechnyaplanstobuildanoilrefineryifRosnefthandsitsChechensubsidiaryChechenneftekhimpromover
totheChechengovernment,chechnya.gov.rureported.
"IfChechenneftekhimpromishandedovertous,weplantobuildarefinerytoattractinvestments[inthisproject].Weareintalks
withRosneftandwethinkthattheywillsupportus.Inanycase,wehaveinvestorswhoarereadytoinvest.Theconstructionofthe
refinerywillbringusadditionaltaxes,jobsandwilldeveloptheoilindustry.Ofcourse,thiswillbeagreatsuccessforourregion,"
Kadyrovadded.
RegnumsaidthatearlierKadyrovsentRussianPresidentVladimirPutinarequest,askingtheRussiangovernmenttogive
ChechnyathesharesinChechenneftekhimprom.PutininstructedtheRussiangovernmenttoconsidersuchapossibility.

Andfinally:

Kadyrov,however,isholdingoutformore,specificallytheconstructioninhisrepublicofanoilrefinerythateconomistssayisnot
economicallyviable,andthatKadyrovhimselfdescribedfivemonthsagoas"unrealistic":

http://www.rferl.org/content/caucasus-report-chechnya-oil-refinery/27472661.html


RussiancelebritiesbackKadyrov

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-celebs-back-chechen-leader-who-called-opposition-
traitors/556448.htmlRussiancelebritiescameoutinsupportofRamzanKadyrovaftertheChechenleaderlabeled
opponentsofPresidentVladimirPutinjackalsandenemiesofthepeople.

Meanwhile,aprominentoppositionfigurepromisedtopublishafar-reachingreportintoKadyrov'slinkstopolitical
murdersandhisrelationshiptotheKremlin.

PicturesofFedorBondarchuk,afamousfilmactoranddirector,andsingerNikolaiBaskovholdingupsignssaying
KadyrovisaRussianpatriotwerepublishedamongothersonInstagrambyanallyofKadyrov's,theleaderofthe
Chechenparliament,MagomedDaudov.

ThephotosarepartofaflashmobonsocialmediapromotedbyKadyrov'salliesunderthebannersKadyrovisa
RussianpatriotandKadyrovistheprideofRussia.

TheyarethelateststageofaconfrontationbetweenKadyrovandoppositionmediaandactiviststhatbeganwhenthe
KadyrovlastweekpublishedastatementsayingopponentsofPutinshouldbetreatedastraitors.

Astherowescalated,Kadyrovbrandedoppositionfiguresjackalswhointendtodestroyourstateandinaflashback
toSoviet-erapunishmentssuggestedtheybegivenpsychologicaltreatmentinChechenhospitals.

TheoutburstsalarmedoppositionfiguresalreadyfacingacrackdownbytheKremlinandincreasinganti-Westernrhetoric
anddemonizationoffifth-columnists.ThesocialmediacampaignsuggeststhatmanyRussianssupportKadyrov's
stance,andKremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovonWednesdaygaveaqualifiedendorsement.

WhenaregionallawmakerrespondedbycallingtheChechenstrongmanadisgracetoRussiainaFacebookpost,he
wasapparentlypressuredtorecordavideoapology.

KadyrovisseenasparticularlydangerousChechenslinkedtohimhavebeenimplicatedinthemurderofopposition
leaderBorisNemtsovbeneaththewallsoftheKremlinlastyear.

Meanwhile,IlyaYashin,anoppositionactivistandformerassociateofNemtsovsaidhewaspreparingareportinto
Kadyrov'sactivitiestitledAthreattonationalsecurity.

YashintoldtheVedomostinewspaperthatthereport,tobepublishedonFeb.23,wouldexamineKadyrov'sactionsasa
rebelfighteragainstRussiainthe1990s,hispossiblelinkstopoliticalmurders,themethodsofhisruleinChechnyaand
hisrelationshipwithMoscow.

ViktorIvanovdenieshewasinvolvedintheLitvinekomurder(TheLitvinenkoreport:Putinlikelyapprovedthe
murder)

http://grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/m.247872.html

MarinaLitvinenkoslawyershavesaidthatViktorIvanov,nowheadofGosnarkokontrol,mayhavebeenthezakazchikinthe
2006murderofAleksandrLitvinenko.IvanovdeniedthatandcalledtheentireBritishinvestigationoftheLitvinenkomurdera
politicalorderandaliefromstarttofinishOnThursday,theconclusionsoftheinvestigationwillbepresentedinParliament

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/20/viktor-ivanov-russian-official-denies-alexander-litvinenko-murder-claims

AtopRussianofficialimplicatedintheradioactivepoisoningofAlexanderLitvinenkohasdenied
anyinvolvementinthecrime,callingtheinquiryintotheRussiansdeathinLondonatheatreof
theabsurd.

LawyersforLitvinenkoswidow,Marina,allegedthatViktorIvanov,headofRussiaspowerful
anti-drugsagencyandalongtimeassociateofVladimirPutin,couldhaveorderedthehit.

Theinquirysreport,whichwillbereleasedonThursdaymorningalmost10yearsafterLitvinenko
diedofpolonium-210poisoningin2006,isexpectedtofindthattheRussianstatecarriedoutthe
assassination.

ThecourtheardevidencethatAndreiLugovoi,aformerKGBagentandnowaRussianMP,and
DmitryKovtunkilledLitvinenko.ButthequestionofwhoexactlyintheRussiangovernmentgave
theorderishardertoanswer.

SpeakingtotheGuardianfromtheMoscowheadquartersoftheRussianDrugsControlAgency,
Ivanovsaidthesix-monthinquirywasawell-craftedpoliticalorder.Itsliesfromstarttofinish,
hesaid.

Headmitted,however,thathisdeputy,NikolaiAulov,hadbeeninregularcontactwithGennady
Petrov,atopRussianmafiabosslivinginSpain.TheinquiryheardthatLitvinenkomayhavebeen
murderedforexposinglinksbetweentopRussianofficialsandRussianorganisedcrimefiguresin
Spain.Inarecentcourtdocument,SpanishprosecutorsallegedthatAulovhadcalledthegangster
78times.

IvanovsaidthatafterheaskedAulovtoexplainhimself,hisdeputysaidhedidknowPetrov
havinginitiallyhelpedputhimbehindbarsin1992andlaterusinghimasasource.Hedoesnt
denythattherewerecontactsbutnotthekindofcontactthattheyareclaiming.Petrovprovided
operationallyusefulinformationonanumberoftopics.Therestismadeup,saidIvanov.

TheotherkeypieceofevidenceagainstIvanovheardbytheinquirywasadamningduediligence
reportabouthispast,co-authoredbyLitvinenko.Thereport,preparedforanunnamedwestern
company,allegedlyscupperedamajorbusinessdealinvolvingtheRussianofficial.Twomonths
afteritwaswritten,Litvinenkowaskilled.

ThecourtheardthatLitvinenkohadinitiallyapproachedLugovoiforhelpwiththereportthetwo
menhadreconnectedin2005andworkedtogetherdoingfreelanceresearchforwestern
companiesplanningtoinvestinRussia.

LugovoiwasunabletoproducemuchinformationonIvanov,soLitvinenkoturnedtoYuriShvets,
aformerKGBagentwhofledtotheUS.ShvetscompiledareportthataccusedIvanovof
longstandingtieswithorganisedcrime.Italsopaintedaportraitofhimhavingamediocreintellect
andvindictivepersonality.

Ivanovsaidhehadreadexcerptsofthereportonlineanddeclareditabsolutenonsense,denying
hehadevermetorspokentoVladimirKumarin,amafiabossnamedasacloseassociateinthe
report.

They[LitvinenkoandShvets]cannotbewitnessesbecausetheydidnotwitnesstheseevents.
TheydidntliveinStPetersburg,theywerenotthere,theydidntknowmeandIdidntknow
them.

Ivanovalsodoubtedthattherecouldhavebeenapotentialdealinvolvinghimandawestern
company.HewasthechairmanoftheboardofdirectorsofAeroflot,theRussianairline,and
Almaz-Antei,adefenceconcern,atthetime.However,hesaidheknewofnonegotiationswith
foreigncompaniesatthattime.Therewasnodeal,itscompletelymadeup,hesaid.

ThereportonIvanovclaimsthatinthe1990s,hisallegedcriminaldealingshadprotectionfrom
Putin,whoworkedintheStPetersburgmayoralofficeatthetime.

ShvetstoldtheinquirythatLitvinenkohadpassedacopyofthereporttohiserstwhileassociate
Lugovoi,whopossiblythenshowedittoIvanov.ShortlyafterwardsLugovoiwasbackinLondon
withKovtun,apparentlyonamissiontoassassinateLitvinenkowithpolonium.

IvanovinsistedhehadnevermetLugovoiinperson.HesaidhemetLitvinenkoonce,in1998,in
hisofficeattheFSBheadquartersintheLubyankabuilding.IvanovwasheadoftheFSBsinternal
securitydepartmentandLitvinenkowasintheprocessofbeingfired.

TheysaidLitvinenkoisinthewaitingroom.IsaidIdidntasktoseehim,buttheysaidhesasking
foraquickmeeting,andsoIreceivedhim.Hispsychologicalstatewasprettyborderline,hetalked
alot.HesuggestedtomethatIshouldmeetwith[tycoonBoris]Berezovsky.ItoldhimIdont
needthat,andquicklysawhimout.Themeetinglastedbetweenthreeandfiveminutes.

Ivanov,wholikePutinrosethroughtheranksoftheKGBsaidhisclosenesstotheRussian
presidentwasoftenexaggerated.

Iveknownhimforalongtime,butnowImjustoneamongmany.Believeme,nothingmore
thanthat.Iknowtheappropriatedistancetokeep,hehastodealwithproblemsofadifferent
scale,hesaid.HespeakstoPutininpersononlyaboutonceayear,hesaid.

BenEmmersonQC,actingforLitvinenkoswidow,toldthecourtthereportcontained
staggeringlyseriousaccusationsagainstIvanovandPutin,butIvanovsaidinvestigatorshadnot
reachedouttohim,smearinghisnamewithoutaskingforhissideofthestory.

IwasnotgoingtorushtoLondon,butthecourtcouldhavesentarequestforinformation,andI
wouldhavebeenhappytogivevideoevidence,butwereceivedabsolutelynothingfromthem,he
said.

KovtunandLugovoihaverefusedtogiveevidencetotheinquirydespitebeingasked.
KovtunaskedinMarchtotestifybyvideolinkbutthenchangedhismindandwithdrewthe
request.Theinquirywassetupbythehomesecretary,TheresaMay,andchairedbyahighcourt
judge,SirRobertOwen.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35370819

Themurderofex-RussianspyAlexanderLitvinenkoin2006intheUKwas"probably"approvedby
PresidentVladimirPutin,aninquiryhasfound.

MrPutinislikelytohavesignedoffthepoisoningofMrLitvinenkowithpolonium-210inpartduetopersonal
"antagonism"betweenthepair,itsaid.

HomeSecretaryTheresaMaysaidthemurderwasa"blatantandunacceptable"breachofinternationallaw.

ButtheRussianForeignMinistrysaidthepublicinquirywas"politicised".

Itsaid:"Weregretthatthepurelycriminalcasewaspoliticisedandovershadowedthegeneralatmosphereof
bilateralrelations."

DmitryPeskov,MrPutin'sspokesman,saidMoscow'sofficialresponsetothereportwillhappenthrough
"diplomaticchannels",theRussiannewsagencyInterfaxwasquotedassaying.

PrimeMinisterDavidCameronsaidtheUKwouldhavetogoonhaving"somesortofrelationshipwiththem
[Russia]"becauseoftheSyriacrisis,butitwouldbedonewith"cleareyesandaverycoldheart"

Thelong-awaitedreportintoMrLitvinenko'sdeathfoundthattwoRussianmen-AndreiLugovoiandDmitryKovtun
-deliberatelypoisonedthe43-year-oldinLondonin2006byputtingtheradioactivesubstancepolonium-210into
hisdrinkatahotel.

SirRobertOwen,thepublicinquirychairman,saidhewas"sure"MrLitvinenko'smurderhadbeencarriedoutby
thetwomenandthattheywereprobablyactingunderthedirectionofMoscow'sFSBintelligenceservice,and
approvedbytheorganisation'schief,NikolaiPatrushev,aswellastheRussianpresident.

HesaidMrLitvinenko'sworkforBritishintelligenceagencies,hiscriticismoftheFSBandMrPutin,andhis
associationwithotherRussiandissidentswerepossiblemotivesforhiskilling.

Therewasalso"undoubtedlyapersonaldimensiontotheantagonism"betweenMrPutinandMrLitvinenko,he
said.

Theuseofpolonium-210was"attheveryleastastrongindicatorofstateinvolvement"asithadtobemadeina
nuclearreactor,thereportsaid.

TheinquiryheardevidencethatMrLitvinenkomayhavebeenconsignedtoaslowdeathfromradiationto"senda
message".

KeyfindingsintheLitvienenkoreport:http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35371344

HerearethemainfindingsfromSirRobertOwen'slong-awaited300-pagereportfollowingthepublicinquiryintothe2006
murderofex-RussianspyAlexanderLitvinenko.

"Takingfullaccountofalltheevidenceandanalysisavailabletome,IfindthattheFSBoperationtokillLitvinenko
wasprobablyapprovedbyMrPatrushevandalsobyPresidentPutin,"SirRobertwrote.
Thisisthemostsignificantstatementtocomeoutofthereport,saystheBBC'sRichardGalpin.

NikolaiPatrushevwasheadofRussia'smainintelligenceagency,FSB,atthetimeofthemurderandverycloseto
MrPutin.

PeskovontheLitvinenkoinvestigation:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-spokesman-calls-litvinenko-inquiry-
a-quasi-investigation/556492.htmlPutin'sspokesmanDmitryPeskovcalledtheBritishinquiryintothemurderofAlexander
LitvinenkoaformerFederalSecurityService(FSB)agentpoisonedinLondonin2006aquasi-investigationand
saiditmaypoisonbilateralrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheU.K.,theInterfaxnewsagencyreportedThursday.

AreportintoLitvinenko'sdeathbasedonapublicinquirywaspublishedearlieronThursday.ItallegedthatLitvinenkowas
poisonedwithhighlytoxicisotopepolonium210bytwoRussianscurrentStateDumadeputyAndreiLugovoiand
entrepreneurDmitryKovtunthatwereprobablyactingundertheinstructionsoftheFSB,whichwereprobably
approvedbyPresidentVladimirPutin.

Russia'sForeignMinistrydeemedtheinquirypoliticallymotivated.TheKremlinwillnottaketheinquiryseriously,
becauseitisbasedonprobabilitiesandusesthewordprobably,accordingtoPeskov.

Suchtermsarenotallowedinourlegalproceedings,orthelegalproceedingsofothercountries,andwecan'tperceiveit
asacourt'sverdict,hewasquotedbyInterfaxassaying.RussiawashopingforcooperationwiththeBritishin
investigatingthiscase.Unfortunately,theBritishfrozenotonlythecooperation,butthedialogueinotherspheres,too,
Peskovadded.

These'quasi-investigations'wearetalkingabouttodaysurelycanpoisontheatmosphereofourbilateralrelationseven
more,hesaid.

Comment:TheLitvinenkomurdercameuprecentlyinapieceaboutPutinsconnectionstotheTambovcriminalgang.
Seethe29December2015notes.IcamebacktotheLitvinenkoassassinationandthe2004assassinationofRoman
Tsepovinthe31December2015notes:

[Inthosesame29December2015notes,theassassinationofRomanTsepovcameup,asdidLitvinenkos.TherewasquitealotonPutins
connectionstotheTambovOPG.IvementionedcountlesstimesthatLitvinenkowaspoisonedjustafewmonthsafterhavingpostedhisclaimon
theInternetthatPutinwasapedophile.Ifoundabitinthe8May2007notesontheLitvinenkoassassinationandlinkstoTambov.SPAG,also
mentionedon29December,comesupaswell.Ithinkthatamongthehighprofilekillingswehaveseenovertheyears,Litvinenkosisthemost
likelytobeonePutinhimselfhadahandin.Litvinenkohadbeendoingsomethingsthatwerelikelyupsettingtoanumberofimportantpeoplein
andaroundtheKremlin,andinorganizedcrime.HehadattackedPutininapersonalwayandwasseenasatraitor.

AsVenediktovhasputit,Putinseestheworldasdividedamongfriends,enemies,andtraitors.Hecandealwithanenemy,accordingto
Venediktov,buttraitorsareanothermatter.IthinkassassinationslikeLitvinenkostendtobecollectivedecisions,andIthinkPutinprobably
approvedit.Whatfollowsisanexcerptfromthe8May2007notesitswhatIwasthinkingaboutatthetime,tryingtocomeupwithapicture
explainingtheassassinationofAleksandrLitvinenko.ThepersonalkompromatonPutinIrefertobelowincludesthepedophileclaim.There
areprobablysomereferencesthatwilldifficulttorecall,butitsworthgoingover,Ithink,becauseofthematerialwesawon29December.The
formattingandstylewasdifferentthen,soallowforthat:

[Polonium,Litvinenko,andTeksnabeksport(TheOzeroGroupandAssassinations)

Iincludedalink(http://www.novayagazeta.ru/data/2007/color25/01.html)totheNovayaGazetainvestigationoftheLitvinenkomurder--
rememberthat?Funnyhowsuchamajoreventhasalreadyslippedoutofthenews,butthatmayhavebeenwhatAleksandrLitvinenkos
killerswerecountingon,no?--inyesterdaysnotes.IwasreadingitthismorningwhenIranacrossalistofRussianfirmsthatarelicensedto
handlenuclearmaterials,includingpolonium210.Thereportclaimsthatsome97%ofthepoloniumproducedintheworldcomesfromRussia.
AlikelypointofproductionistheAvangardfacilityinSarov(OncecalledArzamas-16).HeresthelistofcompaniesthatcanhandleSarovs
polonium--itincludesoneprivatecompany(Nuklon)thatsaysitdoesnothandlepolonium,thoughitcould:

,
,,
.,,,.
40,-210.

Thepassagealsotellsusthatthereare40researchreactorsinRussia,butonlyafewofthemaretechnicallycapableofproducingpolonium
210.Readerswillrecallthatpoloniumdoeshaveitsuses--incertaintypesofnuclearpowerplantsandinindustry,especiallyforreducingstatic
electricity--butitisproducedintinyquantities.JudgingfromtheNovayaGazetareport,theseeminglyverysmallamountofpoloniumusedto
killLitvinenkowasquitelarge,relativelyspeaking.Andtheprocessneededtoproducesuchaquantityofpolonium,thenprepareittobeused
asapoison(likelyincapsuleform,accordingtoNovayasreport)isquitelaborious.Conclusion:Thissubstancewaspickedoutandproduced
especiallyfortheLitvinenkoassassinationbythosewhoplannedtheoperation.Thefacilitiesinquestionwouldhavetohavesanctionsfrom
prettyhighrankingpeopletogothroughwiththis.Theprocesswouldbelaborious,expensive,andinvolveanumberofskilledscientistsand
top-of-the-linelaboratories.TheplannersdidnotexpectthesubstancetobediscoveredanditwasquiteanachievementthatBritish
investigators--atthelastminutebeforeLitvinenkosdeath--concludedthatthepoisonusedtoassassinatehimwaspreciselythispolonium210.

Alright--whataboutTeksnabeksport,astaterunfirmthatexportsnuclearmaterials,especiallyuranium?(ItwasmentionedintheRussian
languagepassageabove)Recallthisfromthe18Januarynotesonsemi-officialorganizationsbeinginvolvedinassassinations:

On12January,theRadioLibertyRussianservicesViktorRezunkovinterviewedKorolkov,SanktPeterburgskiyeVedomostisMikhailRutman,
andNoviyPeterburgsNikolayAndrushechenkoregardingthearticleonparallelstructuresthatappearedinNovayaGazeta
http://www.svobodanews.ru/Transcript/2007/01/12/20070112175720537.html

SomequestionsareraisedabouttheauthenticityoftheinstructionsKorolkovreferredto,thoughneitherRutmannorAndrushchenkodoubts
thatthestatesanctionsextra-judicialdeathsentencesMuchofwhatwehearfromKorolkovisarepeatoftheclaimsmadeintheNovaya
articleTherearesomeinterestingbits,however,ontheTsepovkilling

KorolkovclaimsdoctorswhoconductedanexaminationofTsepovsbodysayhewaskilledbyamassivedoseofsomekindofradioactive
materialRezunkovbringsupTsepovsconnectionswithPutin,Zolotov,andtherecentlyfiredDeputyMVDchief,AndreyNovikovRezunkov
readsexcerptsfromanarticlebyAndrushchenkoonthepoisoningofLitvinenkoandTsepovsdeathAndrushchenkomentionsthatRussian
nuclearfacilitieswherepoloniumisproducedareguardedbytheFSBandFSOandthepoloniumisexportedbyTeksnabeksportandthe
generaldirectorofthecompanyisnoneotherthanVladimirSmirnov,abusinessmancloselyconnectedtotheTambovcrimeorganization,as
wellaswiththeSPAGfirm,whichtheGermanshaveimplicatedinmoney-launderingforamongotherstheTambovorganization(Healso
mentionsPutinspastconnectionstoSPAG)AndrushechenkoalsosaysitisnosecretthatPutin,Smirnov,andTambovgangsterKumarin
(AKABarsukov)allhavedachasattheOzerocomplexBacktoTsepov:Andrushchenkoironicallynotesthatboththeleadersoftheregions
lawenforcementagenciesandregionalcrimebossesattendedTsepovsfuneralTsepovhadbeeninMoscow,seeingNovikovandZolotov,just
priortoreturningtoSt.PetersburghevisitedtheregionalFSBandMVDoffices,hadcoffeeandtea(Oneaccounthadhimeatingicecream,as
Iremember),thenfellillThereweresimilaritiesinthedeathsofShchekochkin,Tsepov,andLitvinenko

RecallalsothattheOzerocomplexcrowdoverlapswiththeRossiyaBankgroup-onethatincludesYakunin,Mordashov,theKovalchuks,the
Fursenkos,andTimchenko.

Inthe25Januarynotes,IroundedoutatheoryontheLitvinenkokilling:

Presumably,MarioScaramellawassetupasapatsyfortheLitvinenkoassassinationbuthowwouldthemeetingdothatiftherewasno
physicalevidencethatScaramellapoisonedLitvinenkoasLitvinenkohimselfbelievedearlyon?Atthesametime,itseemstoocoincidental
thatScaramellawouldpopintothispictureatpreciselythesametimeasthepoisoningoperationwasgoingoff.

YuriyShvetshasstated(IntheBBCradioprogramTheLitvinenkoMystery,availableforlisteningontheOSCsystem)that
LitvinenkoforseveraldaysbelievedScaramellahadpoisonedhim,untilhewaspersuadedotherwise.Shvets,ofcourse,believesthat
themotiveforthekillingwastheduediligencereportdonebyhimselfandLitvinenkoonacertainhighly-placedindividualinthe
Kremlinbutifthatisso,thenVolodarskiyiswronginsettingthetimingfortheoperationalplanningbackayear.Ofcourse,the
reportcouldbeoneofmanyreasonsthatkeypeopleintheKremlindecidedthatLitvinenkohadtogoitcouldhavebeena
contributingfactorfortheteamgettingthegreenlighton31October.Alsothegasdealmentionedinterestsmeitwasaplantoship
LNGviaLatviatoLatinAmericawhat,exactly,wasthedealtheBritishbusinessinterestswerelookingintowhentheyhadShvetsand
Litvinenkodothereports(pluraltherewerefivepersonstheywantedreportson,accordingtoTheLitvinenkoMystery)?Wasthe
thirdmansupposedlyrepresentingaRussianfirmandcertainhighly-placedpersons?AndwhodidLitvinenkocallduringthe
meetingtocheckontheviabilityofsuchadeal?

AccordingtotheBBCradioprogram,Lugovoyhadseenatleastoneofthereports(HowmanyhadShvets/Litvinenkocompleted?Just
theone?)LitvinenkowassuggestingthattheycooperateonproducingsuchreportsforWesternbusinessesLugovoyforwardedthe
 reporttothehighly-placedpersonortotheFSB.Thereportmayhaveresultedinthescuttlingofamultimilliondollardealofsome
sortbutasource(anunnamedformerKGBoperative)fortheBBCradioprogramsaidthatthehighly-placedpersoninvolvedwould
haveassumedthatLitvinenkowasalsooperatingonbehalfoforreportingtoBritishintelligencewhichmayhavebeenmore
importantthanthedealitselfwasthethreatthattheBritishcouldstartinvestigatingalldealsinvolvingthishighly-placedperson,
dealsinvolvingoffshorebankaccountsandthelike,andhundredsofmillionsofdollars.

Moretothinkabout.LitivinenkowasalsoperhapstryingtoactasanagentforBritishsecurityfirmshopingtogarnercontractsfor
Russiangas/oilcompanysecuritywasthethirdmansupposedlyarepresentativeofthoseRussiancompanies?

OKletsbackupLetssaythatLitivinenkohadbeenirritatingPutinforsometime.Ivealreadybeenoverhisallegationsaboutthe1999
apartmentbombingsandpersonalkompromatonPutin.AcontingencyplanissetinmotionincasetheKremlingivesthegreenlighttokillL
notonlybecauseofhisattacksonthepresident,butbecauseitwillbeaneffectivewarningtoBerezovskiy,Nevzlin,andtheentireexiled
oligarchgroupasthe2007-08electionsapproach.TheKremlinhadbeenandstillis,IthinknervousaboutOrangerevolutions.BAB
hasmouthedoffaboutoverthrowingPutinandPutinprobablyhatesBABsguts.Wehaveseenmaterialonwhatmayhavebeenwarningsto
BABandcompanybeforeespeciallythearsonofZakayevshomeinLondon.Ihaventseenanythingelseaboutthe(Possiblybotched)
assassinationofaLondonmanwhosharedthesamenameasthejudgeintheBAB/Zakayevextradition/asylumhearings(Seethe4January
notes),butthereisthattokeepinmindaswell.ThrowintheuncertaintyandnervousnessintheRussianeliteover2008.Thencomesthe
reportonthehighly-placedperson(IvespeculatedthatthepersonmighthavebeenViktorIvanovhefitsthebillandShvetshassaidthatthe
reportwasnotabouteitherSechinorSergeyIvanov)andthebusinessdeal.Ontopofthat,certainpartiesintheKremlinmightthinkthatthe
killingcouldhelpspoilPutinspost-presidentialplanstogoWestmakingitperhapseasiertopressurehimtostayforathirdterm.

LikelysourceofthepoloniumTeksnabeksport,headedbyTambovgangsterVladimirSmirnovofSPAG,andtheOzerodacha
complex.TeksnabsksportmayhavebeenthesourceformaterialstokillTsepovaswell(Seethe18Januarynotes).Whoareother
PutinneighborsattheOzerodachacomplex?AmongthemareTimchenkoandtheKovalchuks(Seethe13June06notes).]]

TheRussianeconomy(EconomistSergeyAleksashenkosayswestillhaventseenthebottomMedvedevsaysthe
governmentwillaltertheanti-crisisplanPutinmeetswithsmallbusinessownersNabiullinawillmeetwithbankerson
therubleLevada:Russiansexpectthegovernmenttomakestabilizingtheeconomicandpoliticalsituationapriority
CapitalflightdeclinesRussiansadapttopoverty)

AleksashenkoinNovayaGazeta:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/71526.html?print=1

FormerDeputyFinanceMinisterandDeputyCentralBankChairmanAleksashenko,pointingtothecontinuingdeclineoftheruble
andoilprices(Seeyesterdaysnotes),saysthatGDPwillcontinuetodecline,thatinflationwillcontinuetobeaproblem,thatthe
budgetdeficitwillgrow,andlivingstandardswillfallaswell.
TheGDPdeclinein2008-2009totaled10%--butasthecrisiscontinues,itcouldbeworsethistime.Anyway,thedeclinestarted
in2012,whenoilpriceswere$100/barrel.Economicgrowthwasslowingthenitwasbecauseofalackofinvestment,which,in
turn,isspurredonbyalackofpropertyrights.Forthenextthreeyears,theRussianGDPwillhoverbetween-1%/+1%,
dependingonaverageoilprices.Wehaventseenthebottomyetandthereisnocausetothinktherewillbegrowth.The
governmentreallydoesnthaveananti-crisisplan(Medvedevheldameetingonrevampingtheplaninviewofthecontinuing
declineofoilpricesandtherublealongwiththemjustyesterdaynotmuchonwhatthosealterationsmightamountto:
http://www.1tv.ru/news/economic/300363Meanwhile,asVedomostiputit,Putinwasmeetingwithsmallbusinessowners,
makinganotherroundofritualisticpromisestohelpthem:http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/01/21/624874
ritualnayapomoschhttp://www.1tv.ru/news/economic/300361),notcountingtalkofbudgetcuts.Anyway,thereformsthat
areneededmost,suchasreformingthecourtsandallowingpoliticalcompetition,arentnecessarilyeconomicones
AleksashenkodoessaythereissomegoodnewshedoesntseeasystemicbankingcrisisinthecardsTheCentralBankcant
cutinterestrateswiththepresentinflationrisk.2/3ofRussiansdonthaveanysavingsandtheoneswhodoareseeingthem
erodedbyinflation

NowwereadthattheCentralBankhascalledforameetingwithbankersinconnectionwiththerublescontinueddeclineCB
chiefNabiullinahascancelledhertriptotheeconomicforuminDavos:http://meduza.io/news/2016/01/21/tsb-sozval-bankirov-na-
ekstrennoe-soveschanieThereportstatesthaton20January,theAssociationofRegionalBanksrequestedsuchameeting.The
Association,whichincludesAlfaBankandVTB,isrequestingaprivilegedexchangeratefortheiraccounting(Comment:I
dontknowwhattheymean)

LevadapollsonwhatRussianssaygovernmentprioritiesshouldbe:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russians-
expect-kremlin-to-stabilize-economy---poll/556212.html
ThemajorityofRussiancitizensexpectthatthegovernmentwillstabilizeeconomicandpoliticalconditionsinthecountry,
apollcarriedoutbytheindependentLevadaCenterpollsterrevealed.Comment:Itsmoreaccuratetosaythatthe
populationsexpectationsarethatthegovernmentshouldmakestabilizingtheeconomythetoppriorityseethechart
belowfromtheLevadawebsiteforallthefigures.

Theresultsofthesurvey,publishedonMonday,showedthat53percentofrespondentsbelievethatgovernmentpolicy
shouldbefocusedonthestabilizationofeconomicandpoliticalconditions.Fifty-onepercentofRussiansalsoconsider
socialbenefitstobeimportant,aswellasthetimelypaymentofsalariesandpensions.

Atthesametime,only9percentofRussiansexpectarighttofreedomofexpression,religionorpeacefulassembly
fromtheauthorities.

ThepollalsocomparesthecurrentfindingswiththeanswersgivenbyRussiansinDecember1999,amonthbefore
VladimirPutinbeganrulingthecountry.Atthattime,Russiancitizensweremostlyconcernedaboutsecurityissues.

Amongthemainexpectationsoftheauthoritiesindicatedbyrespondentsin1999werethestrengtheningoforderinthe
countryandthefightagainstcrime.

Thepoll,withamarginoferrorthatdidnotexceed3.4percent,wasconductedonDec.18-21among1,600respondents
in48Russia'sregions.

http://www.levada.ru/2016/01/18/ozhidaniya-naseleniya-ot-gosudarstvennoj-politiki/

RespondentscouldgivemorethanoneanswerthequestionwasWhichofthefollowingismostimportantforyoupersonally?
53%saidstabilizingthepoliticalandeconomicsituation,comparedto50%in1999Socialguaranteescomesinat51%
(34%)Wagesandpensionspaidontime51%(48%)Providingjobs48%(47%)Personalsecurity45%(41%)
Strengtheningorderinthecountry34%(52%)Fightingcrime26%(56%)Possibilitiesforeducation16%(19%)
Guaranteesforprotectingprivateproperty15%(14%)Freedomofspeech,assembly,religion,arighttochangeresidence
9%(11%)Continuingreform7%(8%)Democracy7%(8%)Freeenterprise7%(7%)

?(
)

.99 .15
50 53
34 51
48 51
47 48
41 45
52 34
56 26
19 16
14 15
,,,.. 11 9
8 7
8 7
7 7
1 2
1 3

Capitalflightdeclinesthreefold:http://lenta.ru/news/2016/01/18/threetimes/
Thenetoutflowofcapitalfor2015was$56.9billion,comparedto$153billionlastyear,accordingtotheCentralBankthe
chieffactorforthehighlevellastyearwaspaymentofprivate-sectorforeigndebts.Bankssoldoffforeignassetstopaytheir
debtsInNovemberoflastyear,theCBsNabiullinasaidthatsince2014,thecountrysexternaldebtshaddeclinedby30%
(from$729billionto$522billion)

Comment:Wevereadpreviouslythatduringthecrisis,Russianshavebeeneconomizing,buyingcheapersubstitutes
forsomefooditems,notbuyingimportsorconsumeritemsasameansofadaptingtothecrisis.See,forexample,the
18December2015notes.Unemploymentiskeptlowbyemployerscuttinghours,butnotlayingoffworkersthe
workersspendmoretimeonprivate,grayeconomymeansofgettingby.Thatsbeenthenorminpreviousrough
economicpatches.

RussiansaregettingusedtopovertythatswhatNezavisimayaGazetasaysmaybetheworstoutcomeofthecrisis,callingita
negativestabilization:http://www.ng.ru/economics/2016-01-13/4_prices_2.htmlSociologistNataliaZubarevichnotesthe
adaptationtheyaregettingusedtopoverty,withpeopleturningtotheirowneffortstogetby,but,ofcourse,theweakeconomy
hurtseffortstoworkonthesideaswellasdamagingtheformaleconomy
TheKremlindeniesarublecollapse(Kudrinwarnsof$16/barreloil)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/kremlin-denies-collapse-as-ruble-plunges-to-new-record-
lows/556446.htmlTherubleweakenedtoanewrecordlowagainstthedollaronThursdayasthelatestfallsinglobaloil
pricesthreatenedtoworsenRussia'seconomicslumpandtheKremlinsoughttoplaydownfearsofacurrencycollapse.

Therubleplungedfromabout82totheU.S.dollartomorethan85shortlyaftermiddaytakingitslossessofarthis
yearto14percent,andmarkingitsweakestsinceredenominationin1998.

TheRussiancurrencyalsofell3percentonThursdayto91.8againsttheeuro,closetorecordlowsseenduringamarket
meltdowninDecember2014.

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovplayeddownthemovements:Iwouldn'tusetheword'collapse.'Theexchangerate
iscertainlychanging,itisvolatile,butitisnowherenearcollapse,hesaid,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported.Headded
thattheCentralBankwasmonitoringthesituationandcouldtakemeasuresifneeded.

Theruble'sfallscomeasthepriceofBrentoilfellbelow$28perbarrel.Globaloilpriceshavefallensome70percentover
thelast18monthsduetoglobaloversupplyandfearsovereconomicgrowthinChina,akeydriverofglobaldemand.Oil
isRussia'smostimportantexport.

SpeakingattheeconomicforuminDavos,formerFinanceMinisterAlexeiKudrinwarnedonThursdaythatoilprices
couldfallto$16perbarrel,accordingtotheTASSnewsagency.

Thatwouldfurtherweakentheruble,fuelinflationandlikelyextendRussia'srecessionintoasecondyear.

Otheroilproducingex-Sovietcountrieshavealsoseentheircurrenciesweakensharply,withAzerbaijanintroducing
capitalcontrolsearlierthisweektocontrolthecurrency'sdecline.

Russia'sCentralBankhassaiditwouldinterveneonmarketsonlyifthefallingrublethreatenedfinancialstability.

Sofar,however,therehasbeennorepeatofthepanicoflate2014whentherapidweakeningoftherublealmostcaused
arunonbanks.Russianshaveremainedcalm,withFirstDeputyPrimeMinisterIgorShuvalovquotedbytheRambler
NewsServiceadvisingpeopleonWednesdaytospendlesstimelookingatexchangerates.

PutinslamsLeninforplantinganatomicbombthateventuallybroughtaboutcollapse
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=556490PresidentVladimirPutinonThursdayblamedBolshevik
revolutionaryVladimirLeninforplantingtheideasthatledtothecollapseoftheSovietUnion,theInterfaxnewsagency
reported.

DuringameetingofthePresidentialCouncilforScienceandEducation,oneoftheattendeesquotedapoembyBoris
PasternakdescribingLeninassomeonewhohadmanagedtheflowofhisthoughtstorulethecountry.

Lettingyourrulebeguidedbythoughtsisright,butonlywhenthatidealeadstotherightresults,notlikeitdidwith
VladimirIlich,Putinquippedinreply.IntheendthatidealedtothefalloftheSovietUnion,headded.

Thereweremanysuchideasasprovidingregionswithautonomy,andsoon.Theyplantedanatomicbombunderthe
buildingthatiscalledRussiawhichlaterexploded.Wedidnotneedaglobalrevolution,hesaid.

PutinhasinthepastfamouslydescribedthefalloftheSovietUnionasthegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthe
twentiethcentury.