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Previous Lecture:

Capital Equipment Replacement Decisions

Maintenance Resource Requirements

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Todays Lecture:

Star structure, delta structure

Network reduction method
Space event method

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A system consisting of three components
may be connected in a star or delta
configuration.

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For these configurations to be equivalent, the
reliabilities computed across the terminals
AB, BC, and CA should be the same for both.
RP = 1 P[ x1 ]P[ x2 ]
For the reliabilities computed across AB:
RARB = 1- (1-RAB)(1-RBCRCA)
Similarly, the reliabilities across BC and CA
are:
RBRC = 1- (1-RBC)(1-RCARAB)
RCRA = 1- (1-RCA)(1-RABRBC)

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These three equations can be solved
simultaneously to express the star quantities,
RA, RB, and RC in terms of the delta quantities
RAB, RBC, and RCA, or vice versa.

( R A RB )( RC R A )
RA =
RB RC

[1 (1 R AB )(1 RBC RCA )][1 (1 RCA )(1 R AB RBC )]

RA =
1 (1 RBC )(1 RCA R AB )

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Similarly for RB, and RC

( R A RB )( RB RC ) ( RB RC )( RC RA )
RB = RC =
R A RC R A RB

For the special case of:

RAB = RBC = RCA = R
RA = RB = RC = RY
Then the following equation can be obtained:
RY = R2 + R R3

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Convert the following delta structure to a star
structure.

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 2 3
RY = R + R R

2 3
RY = (0.95) + (0.95) (0.95) = 0.99756

0.95 = R RY = 0.99756

Note: If a star system and a delta system have the

same reliability, then components of the star
system will need to be more reliable then the delta
system.

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By combining the appropriate series and
parallel branches of the network model
systematically, we can reduce the entire
system to one single equivalent element
The reliability of this equivalent element is
the reliability of the original system
Such a procedure is known as the network
reduction technique.
Network reduction technique - combine
series / parallel branches to simplify the
network.

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Determine reliability of the following system
series-parallel system.

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Replace parallel system with equivalent
component.
RP = 1-(1-0.85)(1-0.85) = 0.9775

System becomes a series model:

System reliability = (0.91)(0.9975) = 0.8895

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Let us consider the following system. The
individual component reliabilities are as
indicated. Determine the system reliability

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To evaluate the system reliability, we will first
replace the delta ABC by an equivalent star,
shown in the dashed lines. Then we will
employ series-parallel network reduction
techniques to obtain the desired result

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 Step 1 - Replace structure ABC by star
structure

2 3
RY = R + R R

2 3
RY = (0.95) + (0.95) (0.95) = 0.99756
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Step 2 - Replace parallel system EF by
equivalent component: RP = 1-(1-0.85)(1-
0.85) = 0.9775

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Step 3 Replace series system with equivalent
component

Reliability of path DBEFG =

(0.99756)(0.91)(0.9775) = 0.88735

Reliability of path DCG = (0.99756)(0.92) =

0.91775

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Step 4 Replace parallel structure

Reduce parallel structure DG to equivalent

component: RP = 1-(1-0.88735)(1-.91775) =
0.99074

Reliability of system = (0.99756)(0.99074) =

0.9832

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Find the reliability of the following system.

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RY = R2 + R R3

RY = (0.90)2 + (0.90) (0.90)3 = 0.99045

RDE = (.99045)(.8) = 0.7924
RDF = .7924

Rs = .94775

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Many practical systems have complex
structures that are not purely series, parallel,
or series-parallel. Evaluation of the reliability
of such systems requires some general and
powerful techniques.

Inspection:
This approach is used only when a small
number of components are involved.

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Consider a simple system configuration below,
let P(X1) = probability that component (path) X1 is
good and P( ) = probability that component
(path) X1 is bad. Then the system reliability is:
1

If the units are identical and independent, and if

p is the probability of success of any one unit,
then:
1 (1-p2 )(1-p) = (p+p2 -p3)

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Consider a system with three components shown
below we can obtain a system reliability

If the units are identical and independent, then:

[1- (1-p2 )]p = (2p2 -p3)

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Considering the system with four units shown
below, for which the reliability of the system is:
= P( + + )

If the units are identical and independent, then

1- (1-p)2(1-p2)= 1-(1-2p+p2)(1-p2)
1- (1-2p+p2-p2+2p3-p4)
2p-2p3+p4
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Consider an alternate system with four units, the
reliability of the system shown in the figure
below is
= P( ( + ))

If the units are identical and independent, then

p[1-(1-p)(1-p2)]= 1-(1-2p+p2)(1-p2)
p2+p3-p4)

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In this method, all of the logically possible
occurrences are listed systematically, and the list is
separated into favorable successful and unfavorable
unsuccessful events.
Then the system reliability is obtained by summing
the probabilities of occurrences of all the favorable
(successful) events.
If the list is prepared properly, then no event will be
left out, and all the listed events will be mutually
exclusive.
For a system consisting of n components, with each
component possibly being good or bad, there will be
a total of 2n events in all, and the procedure becomes
unwieldy if n is greater than 5 or 6.

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Determine the reliability of the following system
of identical components.
Probability component is good = p and bad =
= (1-p)

Let a, b ,c, d = good component,

A, B,C,D = bad component

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 All red events are unsuccessful.
System reliability = Prob(all successful
events) = 1 - Prob(all unsuccessful events)

= 1 ( P[ABcd ] + P [ABCd ] + P[ABcD ] +

P[AbCD ] + P[ABCD] )
0 fail abcd
1 fail Abcd aBcd abCd abcD
2 fail ABcd AbCd AbcD aBCd aBcD abCD
3 fail ABCd ABcD AbCD aBCD
4 fail ABCD

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Determine the reliability of the following system
of identical components.
Probability component is good = p and bad =
= (1-p)

Let a, b ,c, d = good component, a = 0.8, b=0.7,

c = 0.9, d = 0.9
A, B,C,D = bad component

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 All red events are unsuccessful.
System reliability = Prob(all successful
events) = 1 - Prob(all unsuccessful events)

= 1 ( P[aBCD] + P [AbCD] + P[ABCD] )

= 1 [(0.8)(0.3)(0.1) 2 + (0.2)(0.7)(0.1) 2 + (0.2)(0.3)(0.1) 2 ] = 1 0.0044 = 0.9956

0 fail abcd
1 fail Abcd aBcd abCd abcD
2 fail ABcd AbCd AbcD aBCd aBcD abCD
3 fail ABCd ABcD AbCD aBCD
4 fail ABCD

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