Informacin del proyecto:

Los ingresos dependen directamente de la cotizacin internacional del petrleo.

La plataforma se construye y luego se instalar en el norte de Per.
Costo total Plataforma= $ 35,000,000
Tiempo de fabricacin= 6 meses
1. Construccin de la plataforma 60% 21,000,000
* Firma del contrato = 50% 10,500,000
* A la entrega del equipo (6 meses despus de la firma) = 25% 5,250,000
*Instalada y probada (6 meses despus de la entrega) = 25% 5,250,000
2. Instalacin de plataforma: 40%
* Plataforma en operacin= 40% 14,000,000
Tiempo de vida = 10 aos. Plazo para recuperar la inversin (flujo descontado).
Costo de mantenimiento regulares incluidos en el costo de operacin.
Inicio de construccin = 01-ene-15
# de pozos mximo = 5
Al final de los 10 aos:
1. Desmontaje y cierre de pozos = $ 10,000,000
2. Monitoreo de cierre de pozos= $ 2,000,000 Inversin nica en 5 aos (inicia 2010)
*Duracin : 5 aos

Informacin de pozos :
tiempo de perforacin = 3 meses. Se perfora uno cada trimestre.
El primer pozo inicia despus del inicio de operacin de la plataforma.
Costo por pozo = $ 2,000,000 A todo costo.
Tiempo de vida 1 = 8 aos
Tiempo de vida 2 = 15 aos. Si no lo acepta la autoridad tributaria.

Precios de Venta y Costos de operacin:

Precio = 90% del precio internacional
Deducible por barril = $ 25.0
Produccin:
* Mximo = 35000 barriles * Mnimo = 24000 barriles
1. Reduccin de produccin (respecto al ao anterior)=
* Mximo = 20% * Mnimo = 10%
Costo Var. de produccin = $ 5.0
2. Reduccin de produccin (respecto al ao anterior, considerando aumento de produccin)=
* Mximo = 12% * Mnimo = 8%
Costo Var. de produccin = $ 6.5
Costos fijos = $ 600,000 No incluye depreciacin.
Tasa impositiva = 30%
Proyeccin: CME :
 dic-15 $ 55 dic-16 $ 62

Financiamiento :
Relacin Deuda/Capital = 66.7%
Opcin Emisin de bonos = $ 20,000,000
TEA = 8%
Plazo = 5 aos
Costo de emisin = 2%
Costo de supervisin y aud. = 0.50% anules del monto emitido
Costo de Capital = 2.50%

A continuacin se muestra la evolucin del precio del petrleo en los ltimos 2 aos

Precios Internacionales del Petrleo

Apertura Mximo Mnimo ltimo
ene-13 91.78 98.24 91.52 97.49
feb-13 97.42 98.15 91.57 92.05
mar-13 91.76 97.35 89.33 97.23
abr-13 97.36 97.8 85.61 93.46
may-13 93.08 97.17 90.11 91.97
jun-13 91.73 99.01 91.26 96.56
jul-13 96.58 109.32 96.07 105.03
ago-13 105.26 112.24 102.22 107.65
sep-13 107.07 110.7 101.05 102.33
oct-13 102.31 104.38 95.95 96.38
nov-13 96.32 96.65 91.77 92.72
dic-13 92.71 100.75 92.56 98.42
ene-14 98.5 98.97 91.24 97.49
feb-14 97.4 103.8 96.26 102.59
mar-14 103 105.22 97.37 101.58
abr-14 101.53 104.99 98.86 99.74
may-14 99.72 104.5 98.75 102.87
jun-14 102.91 107.76 101.61 105.47
jul-14 105.47 106.08 97.61 97.94
ago-14 97.94 98.67 92.63 95.77
sep-14 95.76 95.91 89.89 91.42
oct-14 91.43 92.96 79.46 80.63
nov-14 80.62 80.97 64.17 64.31
dic-14 64.32 69.53 63.75 68.82
 120

100

80

60

40

20

0
May-13
Apr-13

Dec-13
Oct-13

Apr-14
May-14

Oct-14
Jan-13

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

Dec-14
Jun-13

Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jul-13

Nov-13

Nov-14
Feb-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Sep-14
Figura 1: Evolucin del precio del petrleo.

Considerando todos los datos mencionados anteriormente, se procede a elaborar el flujo de efectivo.

En este caso se muestra a continuacin un ejemplo considerando las siguientes condiciones importantes:

Pesimista s/aum
Inversin Plataforma $ 35,000,000
Produccin x pozo ( barriles/ao) 24000
Inversin en mejora de produccin No
Reduccin produccin (anual) 20%
Reduccin de produccin (Trimestral) 5.0%
Costo Variable $ 5.00
Deducible $ 25.00
Precio 90%
Total de trimestres 40
Costo de Capital (anual) 12.50%
Costo de Capital (trimestral) 3.0%
Inversion por construccion de pozo $ 2,000,000

Este escenario indica: Un entorno pesismista sin aumento e produccin. Es decir, Obtener la produccin
ms baja posible de 24000 barriles con una reduccin anual mxima de 20%
*De acuerdo a lo mencionado en clase por ahora no se considerar la financiacin ya que esta se ver
ms adelante en el curo. As, segn lo indicado, se considera que toda la inversin por el momento es
con capitalpropio
 24000
$ $
Precio por barril ($) 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00

2014 2015 2016

Q-4 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4
Inversin Plataforma
Construccin (contrato 50% de 60%) 10,500,000
Entrega (contrato 25% de 60%) 5,250,000
Operacin (contrato 25% de 60%) 5,250,000
Operacin (contrato 40%) 14,000,000
Cierre de campo
Desmontaje de equipos y cierre de pozos
Empresa supervisora - Contratacin

Pozo 1
Amortizacion de los $2MM - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500
Produccin (barriles) 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000
Total Ingresos 756,000 756,000 756,000 756,000
Deducible - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
Costo Variable - 30,000 - 30,000 - 30,000 - 30,000
UAI 576,000 576,000 576,000 576,000
Pozo 2
Amortizacion de los $2MM - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500
Produccin (barriles) 6,000 6,000 6,000
Total Ingresos 756,000 756,000 756,000
Deducible - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
Costo Variable - 30,000 - 30,000 - 30,000
UAI 576,000 576,000 576,000
Pozo 3
Amortizacion de los $2MM - 62,500 - 62,500
Produccin (barriles) 6,000 6,000
Total Ingresos 756,000 756,000
Deducible - 150,000 - 150,000
Costo Variable - 30,000 - 30,000
UAI 576,000 576,000
Pozo 4
Amortizacion de los $2MM - 62,500
Produccin (barriles) 6,000
Total Ingresos 756,000
Deducible - 150,000
Costo Variable - 30,000
UAI 576,000
Pozo 5
Amortizacion de los $2MM
Produccin (barriles)
Total Ingresos
Deducible
Costo Variable
UAI
Ingresos Totales 756,000 1,512,000 2,268,000 3,024,000
Deducibles Totales - 150,000 - 300,000 - 450,000 - 600,000
Costos Variables Totales - 30,000 - 60,000 - 90,000 - 120,000
Costos Fijos Totales - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
UAI 426,000 1,002,000 1,578,000 2,154,000
Impuestos - 127,800 - 300,600 - 473,400 - 646,200
UN 298,200 701,400 1,104,600 1,507,800

Depreciacin Plataforma - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000

Impuestos 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
Escudo Fiscal Depreciacion Plataforma 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500

FC Operaciones 560,700 963,900 1,367,100 1,770,300

FC Inversiones - 10,500,000 - - 5,250,000 - - 19,250,000 - 62,500 - 125,000 - 187,500 - 250,000

FC Total - 10,500,000 - - 5,250,000 - - 19,250,000 498,200 838,900 1,179,600 1,520,300

VAN -$ 7,988,658
TIR (anual) -22.9%
TIR (trimestral) -6.3%
 22800 21,660
$ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00

2017 2018
Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,415 5,415 5,415 5,415
718,200 718,200 718,200 718,200 682,290 682,290 682,290 682,290
- 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 135,375 - 135,375 - 135,375 - 135,375
- 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 27,075 - 27,075 - 27,075 - 27,075
547,200 547,200 547,200 547,200 519,840 519,840 519,840 519,840

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

6,000 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,415 5,415 5,415
756,000 718,200 718,200 718,200 718,200 682,290 682,290 682,290
- 150,000 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 135,375 - 135,375 - 135,375
- 30,000 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 27,075 - 27,075 - 27,075
576,000 547,200 547,200 547,200 547,200 519,840 519,840 519,840

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

6,000 6,000 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,415 5,415
756,000 756,000 718,200 718,200 718,200 718,200 682,290 682,290
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 135,375 - 135,375
- 30,000 - 30,000 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 27,075 - 27,075
576,000 576,000 547,200 547,200 547,200 547,200 519,840 519,840

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

6,000 6,000 6,000 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,415
756,000 756,000 756,000 718,200 718,200 718,200 718,200 682,290
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 135,375
- 30,000 - 30,000 - 30,000 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 27,075
576,000 576,000 576,000 547,200 547,200 547,200 547,200 519,840

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
756,000 756,000 756,000 756,000 718,200 718,200 718,200 718,200
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500 - 142,500
- 30,000 - 30,000 - 30,000 - 30,000 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500 - 28,500
576,000 576,000 576,000 576,000 547,200 547,200 547,200 547,200
 3,742,200 3,704,400 3,666,600 3,628,800 3,555,090 3,519,180 3,483,270 3,447,360
- 742,500 - 735,000 - 727,500 - 720,000 - 705,375 - 698,250 - 691,125 - 684,000
- 148,500 - 147,000 - 145,500 - 144,000 - 141,075 - 139,650 - 138,225 - 136,800
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
2,701,200 2,672,400 2,643,600 2,614,800 2,558,640 2,531,280 2,503,920 2,476,560
- 810,360 - 801,720 - 793,080 - 784,440 - 767,592 - 759,384 - 751,176 - 742,968
1,890,840 1,870,680 1,850,520 1,830,360 1,791,048 1,771,896 1,752,744 1,733,592

- 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000

262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500

2,153,340 2,133,180 2,113,020 2,092,860 2,053,548 2,034,396 2,015,244 1,996,092

- 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500

1,840,840 1,820,680 1,800,520 1,780,360 1,741,048 1,721,896 1,702,744 1,683,592

 20,577 19,548
$ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00

2019 2020
Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

5,144 5,144 5,144 5,144 4,887 4,887 4,887 4,887
648,176 648,176 648,176 648,176 615,767 615,767 615,767 615,767
- 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 122,176 - 122,176 - 122,176 - 122,176
- 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 24,435 - 24,435 - 24,435 - 24,435
493,848 493,848 493,848 493,848 469,156 469,156 469,156 469,156

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

5,415 5,144 5,144 5,144 5,144 4,887 4,887 4,887
682,290 648,176 648,176 648,176 648,176 615,767 615,767 615,767
- 135,375 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 122,176 - 122,176 - 122,176
- 27,075 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 24,435 - 24,435 - 24,435
519,840 493,848 493,848 493,848 493,848 469,156 469,156 469,156

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

5,415 5,415 5,144 5,144 5,144 5,144 4,887 4,887
682,290 682,290 648,176 648,176 648,176 648,176 615,767 615,767
- 135,375 - 135,375 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 122,176 - 122,176
- 27,075 - 27,075 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 24,435 - 24,435
519,840 519,840 493,848 493,848 493,848 493,848 469,156 469,156

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

5,415 5,415 5,415 5,144 5,144 5,144 5,144 4,887
682,290 682,290 682,290 648,176 648,176 648,176 648,176 615,767
- 135,375 - 135,375 - 135,375 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 122,176
- 27,075 - 27,075 - 27,075 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 24,435
519,840 519,840 519,840 493,848 493,848 493,848 493,848 469,156

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

5,415 5,415 5,415 5,415 5,144 5,144 5,144 5,144
682,290 682,290 682,290 682,290 648,176 648,176 648,176 648,176
- 135,375 - 135,375 - 135,375 - 135,375 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606 - 128,606
- 27,075 - 27,075 - 27,075 - 27,075 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721 - 25,721
519,840 519,840 519,840 519,840 493,848 493,848 493,848 493,848
 3,377,336 3,343,221 3,309,107 3,274,992 3,208,469 3,176,060 3,143,651 3,111,242
- 670,106 - 663,338 - 656,569 - 649,800 - 636,601 - 630,171 - 623,740 - 617,310
- 134,021 - 132,668 - 131,314 - 129,960 - 127,320 - 126,034 - 124,748 - 123,462
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
2,423,208 2,397,216 2,371,224 2,345,232 2,294,548 2,269,855 2,245,163 2,220,470
- 726,962 - 719,165 - 711,367 - 703,570 - 688,364 - 680,957 - 673,549 - 666,141
1,696,246 1,678,051 1,659,857 1,641,662 1,606,183 1,588,899 1,571,614 1,554,329

- 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000

262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500

1,958,746 1,940,551 1,922,357 1,904,162 1,868,683 1,851,399 1,834,114 1,816,829

- 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500

1,646,246 1,628,051 1,609,857 1,591,662 1,556,183 1,538,899 1,521,614 1,504,329

 18,571 17,642
$ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00

2021 2022
Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,643 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,411 4,411 4,411 4,411
584,978 584,978 584,978 584,978 555,729 555,729 555,729 555,729
- 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 110,264 - 110,264 - 110,264 - 110,264
- 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 22,053 - 22,053 - 22,053 - 22,053
445,698 445,698 445,698 445,698 423,413 423,413 423,413 423,413

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,887 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,411 4,411 4,411
615,767 584,978 584,978 584,978 584,978 555,729 555,729 555,729
- 122,176 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 110,264 - 110,264 - 110,264
- 24,435 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 22,053 - 22,053 - 22,053
469,156 445,698 445,698 445,698 445,698 423,413 423,413 423,413

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,887 4,887 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,411 4,411
615,767 615,767 584,978 584,978 584,978 584,978 555,729 555,729
- 122,176 - 122,176 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 110,264 - 110,264
- 24,435 - 24,435 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 22,053 - 22,053
469,156 469,156 445,698 445,698 445,698 445,698 423,413 423,413

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,887 4,887 4,887 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,411
615,767 615,767 615,767 584,978 584,978 584,978 584,978 555,729
- 122,176 - 122,176 - 122,176 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 110,264
- 24,435 - 24,435 - 24,435 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 22,053
469,156 469,156 469,156 445,698 445,698 445,698 445,698 423,413

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,887 4,887 4,887 4,887 4,643 4,643 4,643 4,643
615,767 615,767 615,767 615,767 584,978 584,978 584,978 584,978
- 122,176 - 122,176 - 122,176 - 122,176 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067 - 116,067
- 24,435 - 24,435 - 24,435 - 24,435 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213 - 23,213
469,156 469,156 469,156 469,156 445,698 445,698 445,698 445,698
 3,048,045 3,017,257 2,986,469 2,955,680 2,895,643 2,866,394 2,837,145 2,807,896
- 604,771 - 598,662 - 592,553 - 586,445 - 574,532 - 568,729 - 562,926 - 557,122
- 120,954 - 119,732 - 118,511 - 117,289 - 114,906 - 113,746 - 112,585 - 111,424
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
2,172,320 2,148,862 2,125,405 2,101,947 2,056,204 2,033,919 2,011,634 1,989,350
- 651,696 - 644,659 - 637,621 - 630,584 - 616,861 - 610,176 - 603,490 - 596,805
1,520,624 1,504,204 1,487,783 1,471,363 1,439,343 1,423,744 1,408,144 1,392,545

- 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000

262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500

1,783,124 1,766,704 1,750,283 1,733,863 1,701,843 1,686,244 1,670,644 1,655,045

- 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500

1,470,624 1,454,204 1,437,783 1,421,363 1,389,343 1,373,744 1,358,144 1,342,545

 16,760 15,922
$ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00

2023 2024
Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,190 4,190 4,190 4,190
527,943 527,943 527,943 527,943
- 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751
- 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950
402,242 402,242 402,242 402,242

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,411 4,190 4,190 4,190 4,190
555,729 527,943 527,943 527,943 527,943
- 110,264 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751
- 22,053 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950
423,413 402,242 402,242 402,242 402,242

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,411 4,411 4,190 4,190 4,190 4,190
555,729 555,729 527,943 527,943 527,943 527,943
- 110,264 - 110,264 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751
- 22,053 - 22,053 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950
423,413 423,413 402,242 402,242 402,242 402,242

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,411 4,411 4,411 4,190 4,190 4,190 4,190
555,729 555,729 555,729 527,943 527,943 527,943 527,943
- 110,264 - 110,264 - 110,264 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751
- 22,053 - 22,053 - 22,053 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950
423,413 423,413 423,413 402,242 402,242 402,242 402,242

- 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500 - 62,500

4,411 4,411 4,411 4,411 4,190 4,190 4,190 4,190
555,729 555,729 555,729 555,729 527,943 527,943 527,943 527,943
- 110,264 - 110,264 - 110,264 - 110,264 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751 - 104,751
- 22,053 - 22,053 - 22,053 - 22,053 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950 - 20,950
423,413 423,413 423,413 423,413 402,242 402,242 402,242 402,242
 2,750,861 2,723,074 2,695,288 2,667,501 2,111,772 1,583,829 1,055,886 527,943
- 545,806 - 540,293 - 534,779 - 529,266 - 419,002 - 314,252 - 209,501 - 104,751
- 109,161 - 108,059 - 106,956 - 105,853 - 83,800 - 62,850 - 41,900 - 20,950
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
1,945,894 1,924,723 1,903,553 1,882,382 1,458,969 1,056,727 654,485 252,242
- 583,768 - 577,417 - 571,066 - 564,715 - 437,691 - 317,018 - 196,345 - 75,673
1,362,126 1,347,306 1,332,487 1,317,667 1,021,278 739,709 458,139 176,570

- 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000

262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500

1,624,626 1,609,806 1,594,987 1,580,167 1,283,778 1,002,209 720,639 439,070

- 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 312,500 - 250,000 - 187,500 - 125,000 - 62,500

1,312,126 1,297,306 1,282,487 1,267,667 1,033,778 814,709 595,639 376,570

 15,126
$ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00 $ 140.00

2025
Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4

10,000,000
2,000,000
 - - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
- 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000 - 150,000
45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000
- 105,000 - 105,000 - 105,000 - 105,000

- 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000 - 875,000

262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500

157,500 157,500 157,500 157,500

- - - - 12,000,000

157,500 157,500 157,500 - 11,842,500

 De igual forma que para el caso anterior se realizan simulaciones para cada uno de los escenarios posible extremos que presenta el caso. Es decir: Sin
aumento de produccin (s/aum) y con aumento de produccin (c/m). Para cada una de esas situaciones se consideran escenarios: Favorable ( Alta
produccin/baja cada de produccin), Moderado (Alta produccin/Alta cada de produccin) y Pesimista (Baja produccin/Alta cada de produccin).
Revisar Tabla 1.

Una vez simulados los resultados se proceden a obtener los VAN y TIR para cada escenario considerando diferentes valores de precio de petrleo
(Tabla 2). Posteriormente se proceden a graficar los resultados (Figura 2).

Tabla 1. Datos para los diferentes escenarios que pueden presentarse.

Favorable s/aum Moderado s/aum Pesimista s/aum Favorable c/aum Moderado c/aum Pesimista c/aum
Inversin Plataforma $ 35,000,000 $ 35,000,000 $ 35,000,000 $ 35,000,000 $ 35,000,000 $ 35,000,000
Produccin x pozo ( barriles/ao) 35000 35000 24000 35000 35000 24000
Inversin en mejora de produccin No No No No No No
Reduccin produccin (anual) 10% 20% 20% 8% 12% 12%
Reduccin de produccin (Trimestral) 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0%
$
Costo Variable $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 6.50 $ 6.50 6.50
$
Deducible $ 25.00 $ 25.00 $ 25.00 $ 25.00 $ 25.00 25.00
Precio 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Total de trimestres 40 40 40 40 40 40
Costo de Capital (anual) 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%
Costo de Capital (trimestral) 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Inversion por construccion de pozo $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000
 Tabla2: VAN y TIR para escenario mostrado en la tabla 1 considerando diferentes valores de precio de petrleo.

Precio por barril ($) $ 30 $ 40 $ 50 $ 60 $ 70 $ 80 $ 90 $ 100 $ 110 $ 120 $ 130 $ 140

VAN Favorable s/aum -$ 39,421,188 -$ 35,026,226 -$30,631,264 -$ 26,236,302 -$ 21,841,340 -$ 17,446,378 -$ 13,051,416 -$ 8,656,454 -$ 4,261,491 $ 133,471 $ 4,528,433 $ 8,923,395
TIR (anual) -16.36% -23.81% -27.93% 12.63% 16.54% 20.10%
VAN Moderado s/aum -$ 39,321,909 -$ 35,224,784 -$ 31,127,659 -$ 27,030,534 -$ 22,933,409 -$ 18,836,284 -$ 14,739,159 -$ 10,642,034 -$ 6,544,909 -$ 2,447,784 $ 1,649,342 $ 5,746,467
TIR (anual) -19.29% -24.39% 9.99% 14.09% 17.76%
VAN Pesimista s/aum -$ 38,892,687 -$ 36,083,230 -$ 33,273,772 -$ 30,464,315 -$ 27,654,858 -$ 24,845,401 -$ 22,035,944 -$ 19,226,486 -$ 16,417,029 -$ 13,607,572 -$ 10,798,115 -$ 7,988,658
TIR (anual) -19.02% -22.88%
VAN Favorable c/aum -$ 40,185,125 -$ 35,727,277 -$ 31,269,430 -$ 26,811,583 -$ 22,353,735 -$ 17,895,888 -$ 13,438,040 -$ 8,980,193 -$ 4,522,345 -$ 64,498 $ 4,393,349 $ 8,851,197
TIR (anual) -15.69% -23.77% -28.02% 12.44% 16.39% 19.99%
VAN Moderado c/aum -$ 40,122,806 -$ 35,789,596 -$ 31,456,387 -$ 27,123,178 -$ 22,789,969 -$ 18,456,759 -$ 14,123,550 -$ 9,790,341 -$ 5,457,131 -$ 1,123,922 $ 3,209,287 $ 7,542,497
TIR (anual) -22.08% -26.64% 11.41% 15.43% 19.06%
VAN Pesimista c/aum -$39,441,873 -$ 36,470,529 -$ 33,499,186 -$ 30,527,842 -$ 27,556,499 -$ 24,585,155 -$ 21,613,812 -$ 18,642,468 -$ 15,671,125 -$ 12,699,781 -$ 9,728,438 -$ 6,757,094
TIR (anual) -16.82% -22.16% -25.45%
 VAN vs Precio Petrleo en $
$20,000,000

$10,000,000

$-
$- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160
-$10,000,000

-$20,000,000

-$30,000,000

-$40,000,000

-$50,000,000

VAN Favorable s/aum VAN Moderado s/aum VAN Pesimista s/aum

Figura 2. Variacin del VAN vs el Precio del Petrleo para cada escenario.

Conclusin:

Finamente, de lo observado en la grfica 2, se pude concluir que para obtener resultados

positivos en algunos de los escenarios necesitamos un precio promedio por barril superior a
los $120 aproximadamente.

Es decir, en las circunstancias actuales donde el precio del barril se proyecta a la baja y se
encuentra bordeando los$40 por barril no resulta satisfactorio o llamativo una inversin de
este tipo.