42%
2015 2016
DNL has been growing all its business segments. Food ingredients
segment contributes majority of the revenue. However, its revenue
share declined from 44.91% in 2015 to 37.34% in 2016 to pave way
to the remaining segments which are rising as well.
Specialty plastics significantly grew y/y due to the rising disposable
income in the country and the recovery of wire harness-related
exports.
The least revenue contributor Aerosols exhibited double digit growth
in 2016, mainly due to its fastest growing segment Personal Care.
Also, aerosols sales should continuously improve as the firm takes
advantage of the low penetration rate in the country.
Biodiesel Supply
Diesel Additional
Demand Low Reqt/Fuel
Demand Blend Plants
Carbon Senario Displaced
(Mli) Required
Year (Mli)
2017 7,310 5% 365 -
2018 7,508 5% 375 -
2019 7,710 5% 386 -
2020 7,923 10% 792 10
2021 8,092 10% 809 -
2022 8,251 10% 825 -
2023 8,405 10% 841 1
2024 8,557 10% 856 -
2025 8,694 20% 1,739 20
2026 8,781 20% 1,756 -
2027 8,864 20% 1,773 1
2028 8,920 20% 1,784 -
2029 8,997 20% 1,799 -
2030 9,031 20% 1,806 1
Source: Philippine Department of Energy
DNL is keen in the future growth of renewable energy in our country.
Currently, it has BioActiv brand, a coco-biodiesel launched in 2006
from its subsidiary Chemrez. It is the leading producer of biodiesel in
the Philippines in terms of installed capacity.
Demand for biofuel should grow especially with the mandated blend
of biodiesel with locally distributed diesel and gasoline from 5% in
2017 to 10% and 20% starting 2020 and 2025, respectively.
Increased dividend payout
The firm has been consistently declaring dividends. This year, DNL
declared P0.235 dividends per share with a 1.9% dividend yield based
on July 12's closing price. This amounts to P1.68bn, 18% increase from
last year and has a total payout ratio of 64% of prior year's earnings.
Continuous Expansion
Capital Expenditure
450 0.5
0.43
400 0.45
350 0.37 0.4
300 0.32 0.35
0.3
250
0.25
200 400
0.2
150 298 315
0.15
100 0.1
50 0.05
- 0
2015 2016 2017E
CAPEX (Php mn) EPS
The 2017 capex is set between P400mn to P420mn, 15% to 20% higher
than last year, to expand the capacity of its existing plants.
Although DNL's plant capacities are not yet in the critical levels, they
have to plan ahead for the said capacity expansion since it would take
up two to three years to expand. It is also in line with the expected
increase in demand for its specialty food ingredients, plastics and
chemical products from its domestic and international clients.
DNL has been growing organically. However, it mentioned that it has
already been considering potential firms to be acquired but it has yet to
finalize its choices as some did not fit the criteria.
Technical Analysis
DNL has recently breached its 50-d MA resistance and it is now trying
to trade above that newly set support. However, momentum has
slightly faltered and remains flat in the mid-level. DMI lines have also
converged showing bearish tone. It will struggle to sustain its short-
term upward trend. However, MACD and histogram are still going up.
This could fuel DNL to test its immediate 100-d MA resistance, if it
succeeds and stay above that level, chances are it will be bullish in
the medium run.
Buy on breakout