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7/20/2017 Theimpactofelectriccarsonoildemand|BPEnergyOutlook|Energyeconomics|BPGlobal

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Energyeconomics BPEnergyOutlook Electricvehicles

Statistical Review + The impact of electric cars on oil demand


Energy Outlook - Rising prosperity will boost car ownership, especially in emerging markets.
Meanwhile, fuel efficiency targets and lower battery costs are likely to spur
Overview
electrification
Electric vehicles

Oil supplies

LNG and global


markets

China

A faster mobility
revolution

A lower carbon world

Risks to gas

Beyond 2035

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insights
SpencerDale,groupchiefeconomist,talksaboutrisinglevelsofcarownershipinemergingmarkets
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Spencer Dale, group chief economist

Spencer Dale
Inthebasecaseforecast,theglobalcarfleetisexpectedtodoublefrom0.9billioncarsin2015to1.8billionby2035
asrisingincomesandimprovingroadinfrastructureboostscarownership.Withinthesametimeframe,thenonOECD
fleetwilltriplefrom0.4billioncarsto1.2billion.

Overall,globaldemandforcartravelroughlydoublesoverthecourseoftheEnergyOutlook.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/energyoutlook/electriccarsandoildemand.html 1/4
7/20/2017 Theimpactofelectriccarsonoildemand|BPEnergyOutlook|Energyeconomics|BPGlobal
Thenumberofelectriccarsalsorisessignificantly,from1.2millionin2015toaround100millionby2035(6%ofthe
globalfleet).Aroundaquarteroftheseelectricvehicles(EVs)arepluginhybrids(PHEVs),whichrunonamixof
electricpowerandoil,andthreequartersarepurebatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs).

AkeydriverofthepaceatwhichEVspenetratetheglobalcarfleetistheextenttowhichfueleconomystandardsare
tightened.ButEVpenetrationwillalsodependonanumberofotherfactors,including:

1 thepaceatwhichbatterycostscontinuetofall

2 thesizeanddurabilityofsubsidiesandothergovernmentpoliciessupportingEVownership

3 thespeedatwhichtheefficiencyofconventionalvehiclesimprovesandcruciallyon

4 consumerpreferencestowardsEVs.

Fueldemandforuseincarscontinuestorise,despiteefficiencyimprovementsandEVswitching.

In2015,carsaccountedfor19Mb/dofliquidfueldemandafifthofglobaldemand.Allelseequal,adoublinginthe
demandforcartraveloverthecoming20yearswouldleadtoadoublingintheliquidfueldemandfromcars.

However,improvementsinfuelefficiencyreducethispotentialgrowthsignificantly(by17Mb/d)asmanufacturers
respondtostrictervehicleemissionstandards.

Inthebasecaseforecast,thenumberofelectricvehiclesrisessignificantly,from1.2millionin2015toaround100
millionby2035

In2015,carsaccountedfor19Mb/dofliquidfueldemandafifthofglobaldemand

The global car fleet: 2015-2035 (billions)

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/energyoutlook/electriccarsandoildemand.html 2/4
7/20/2017 Theimpactofelectriccarsonoildemand|BPEnergyOutlook|Energyeconomics|BPGlobal

Theglobalcarfleetdoublesfrom0.9billioncarsin2015to1.8billionby2035

Anaveragepassengercarisexpectedtoachievealmost50milesperUSgallonin2035,comparedwithlessthan30
MPGin2015afasterrateofefficiencyimprovementthaninthepast.

Illustrative path for battery pack costs ($/kWh)

*Forabatteryelectricvehiclewitha60kWhpack.CostprojectionsdependheavilyonthedegreeofEVuptake,whichisuncertain,
sorangesshouldbetreatedasillustrativeonly.Currentestimatesofbatterycostsalsovarywidely,butthisuncertaintyisnotshown

Batterypackcostsarelikelytofallinthecomingyears,butthepaceandextentofthisfallisuncertain

Thegrowthofelectriccarsalsomitigatesthegrowthinoildemand,buttheeffectismuchsmaller:the100million
increaseinelectriccarsreducesoildemandgrowthby1.2Mb/d.Bycomparison,thisisarounda10thoftheimpactof
thegainsinvehicleefficiency.

Overall,theincreaseindemandforcartravelfromthegrowingmiddleclassinemergingeconomiesoverpowersthe
effectsofimprovingfuelefficiencyandelectrification,suchthatliquidfueldemandforcarsrisesby4Mb/darounda
quarterofthetotalgrowthovertheOutlook.

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7/20/2017 Theimpactofelectriccarsonoildemand|BPEnergyOutlook|Energyeconomics|BPGlobal
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