Presented at interaction
organized by
IBN Media and Research Pvt. Ltd.
Presented
On
16th July 2017
By
A.R. Bhattarai FCA
Coordinator Banking Committee
CNI
Content
1. Banking Sector Overview
2. Review of 9 randomly selected Banks
3. Expectations
1. Private sectors
2. BFIs
3. NRB
4. GON
4. Monetary policy response
5. Way forwards
Banking Sector Overview
PAID UP
DATE CAPITAL FUND CAPITAL BORROWINGS DEPOSITS Current Saving Fixed Call Others LIQUID FUNDS INVESTMENTS LOANS & ADVANCES
Jun-15 164,510.61 139,681.85 25,043.46 1,699,075.23 139,570.02 683,837.44 505,991.72 346,656.85 23,019.19 362,719.62 149,959.08 1,319,589.57
Jul-15 162,992.51 140,794.10 12,850.60 1,771,946.15 158,746.16 714,466.16 513,283.02 363,041.66 22,409.16 353,397.28 206,160.48 1,345,671.32
Aug-15 200,899.21 140,842.38 28,264.89 1,761,807.81 140,520.56 720,282.37 513,648.28 363,617.74 23,738.86 305,384.70 241,468.50 1,342,487.18
Sep-15 200,094.41 141,424.05 26,947.97 1,792,039.42 142,009.67 742,886.10 520,582.31 363,050.89 23,510.45 325,886.91 243,161.49 1,355,371.55
Oct-15 197,159.24 142,821.47 27,916.31 1,815,031.64 149,458.52 763,513.34 518,227.46 360,071.30 23,761.02 370,550.20 199,616.86 1,379,914.49
Nov-15 196,694.19 142,557.16 27,217.47 1,821,883.84 147,339.55 760,102.18 513,391.28 377,029.87 24,020.96 346,388.76 227,385.04 1,380,965.74
Dec-15 196,881.22 144,050.69 25,513.45 1,844,443.30 156,492.17 768,154.89 520,113.26 374,880.63 24,802.36 341,211.84 246,333.27 1,389,614.36
Jan-16 196,696.93 151,133.32 28,598.16 1,872,355.10 154,875.26 786,146.80 524,631.99 381,879.15 24,821.89 322,000.86 246,333.27 1,428,763.59
Feb-16 195,872.40 153,947.50 21,633.56 1,920,017.45 160,329.70 808,700.22 518,585.20 407,302.58 25,099.74 389,179.20 231,235.64 1,447,436.95
Mar-16 197,288.03 155,048.25 30,471.53 1,910,355.44 165,922.06 810,280.86 522,194.48 385,747.15 26,210.89 317,172.55 245,355.09 1,494,821.47
Apr-16 203,826.30 157,357.11 38,512.88 1,968,886.14 176,431.22 812,754.17 542,931.59 408,663.00 28,106.16 343,395.12 248,956.99 1,553,968.07
May-16 204,667.18 159,382.47 38,018.17 1,965,367.28 160,071.36 827,785.20 563,207.59 387,431.02 26,872.11 332,155.14 239,087.46 1,567,274.97
Jun-16 205,700.70 161,180.15 38,619.25 2,002,140.77 161,301.44 844,557.06 582,445.54 386,216.11 27,620.61 345,401.61 218,389.94 1,611,218.29
Jul-16 214,892.48 163,370.74 42,822.19 2,107,502.69 185,135.30 875,419.91 617,634.95 401,829.34 27,483.20 385,746.01 218,389.94 1,669,203.04
Aug-16 261,491.96 165,345.07 41,677.63 2,110,949.66 172,433.06 886,046.40 618,399.26 407,231.11 26,839.83 345,185.93 260,907.99 1,678,983.01
Sep-16 261,220.53 165,949.22 45,305.16 2,130,699.27 176,039.82 896,777.17 618,938.21 410,953.17 27,990.91 323,311.62 251,348.88 1,726,084.58
Oct-16 261,834.85 174,297.93 46,363.38 2,185,924.79 183,616.70 925,131.85 631,391.60 416,582.64 29,201.98 362,466.19 244,066.06 1,768,305.49
Nov-16 263,131.12 176,145.44 48,980.27 2,178,871.44 172,930.10 922,526.54 655,483.34 399,160.46 28,771.00 339,023.84 239,128.71 1,793,025.39
Dec-16 264,275.57 179,945.53 43,763.77 2,208,713.68 174,465.04 914,735.53 679,229.72 412,248.03 28,035.36 355,079.31 233,197.98 1,827,083.00
Jan-17 265,136.63 187,244.27 56,421.97 2,254,540.30 180,506.91 909,447.75 709,414.80 425,226.31 29,944.52 354,342.76 234,922.42 1,883,192.29
Feb-17 267,070.22 190,496.81 48,150.94 2,273,679.63 178,720.86 850,022.46 773,664.17 442,951.35 28,320.79 357,447.43 220,179.00 1,917,994.56
Mar-17 269,389.28 193,792.52 37,997.27 2,283,314.18 175,561.29 773,664.17 838,886.05 418,936.60 28,311.57 380,045.02 200,480.17 1,922,428.65
Apr-17 272,680.61 204,108.69 36,233.06 2,284,703.40 171,948.08 804,031.76 900,859.73 379,472.86 28,390.98 379,454.56 193,071.64 1,940,911.84
Deposit Growth
30.00%
25.00%
24% growth observed during 2015/16
Annualized Deposit Growth is limited to 16% observed
during first 9 months of FY 2016/17
20.00%
15.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
-5.00%
MONTHLY GROWTH GROWTH LAST 12 MONTHS
Deposit Growth 2015/16 and 2016/17
30.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
-5.00%
20.00%
16% Growth within 3 months Real growth 14%
15.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17
-5.00%
MONTHLY GROWTH GROWTH LAST 12 MONTHS
Loan and Deposit growth
35.00%
20.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
-5.00%
DEPOSITS MONTHLY GROWTH DEPOSIT GROWTH DEPOSIT ANNUALIZED GROWTH Loan MONTHLY GROWTH MONTHLY GROWTH ANNUALIZED LOAN GROWRH
Growth of Deposit and Capital vs Loans and Advances
2,700,000.00
2,600,000.00
2,500,000.00
2,400,000.00
2,300,000.00
2,200,000.00
2,100,000.00
1,700,000.00
1,600,000.00
1,500,000.00
1,400,000.00
1,300,000.00
1,200,000.00
1,100,000.00
1,000,000.00
900,000.00
Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17
Nepalese Money market is liquid but banks do not have sufficient fund for
lending.
76.00%
74.00%
72.00%
70.00%
68.00%
66.00%
64.00%
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
CCD RATIO
Liquidity
33.00%
31.00%
29.00%
27.00%
25.00%
23.00%
21.00%
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Liquidity
GROWTH
2,500,000.00
2240 Billion
1699 billion
2,000,000.00
1940 billion
1,500,000.00
273 billion
241 Billon
500,000.00
164 billion
-
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
9.51
9.00
8.26
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17
Fx Rate has not been considered as the tools to manage interest rates because of NPR/NPR relation
Deposit Mix
900,000.00
500,000.00
FD rate was below 7%
400,000.00
300,000.00
Call rate was above 12%
200,000.00
100,000.00
-
Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17
1000000
Saving Deposit will grow at reasonably higher rate
800000
400000
200000
Current Saving Fixed Call Current Growth Saving growth Fixed Growth Call Growth
Expected Growth of Credit and Deposit
3,200,000.00
3,100,000.00
3,000,000.00
2,900,000.00
2,800,000.00
2,700,000.00
2,600,000.00
2,500,000.00
2,400,000.00
2,300,000.00
2,200,000.00
2,100,000.00
2,000,000.00
1,900,000.00
1,800,000.00
1. Aggregate demand for money likely to increase
1,700,000.00
pushing interest rate upward
1,600,000.00
1,500,000.00
2. Increase in Money supply will not increase loanable fund
1,400,000.00
unless NRB adjust CCD ratio
1,300,000.00
1,200,000.00
1,100,000.00
DEPOSITS LOANS & ADVANCES Expected Deposit Growth Expected Credit Growth
Composition of Gross Domestic Product
(at current prices)
2058/59 2067/68 2068/69 2069/70 2070/71 2071/72 2072/73R 2073/74P
NSIC Industrial Classification
2001/02 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
A Agriculture and forestry 36.92 36.68 34.82 33.40 32.16 31.27 31.13 28.89
B Fishing 0.49 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.48 0.47 0.51 0.48
C Mining and quarrying 0.48 0.54 0.57 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.63
D Manufacturing 8.50 6.24 6.34 6.35 6.20 6.03 5.72 5.67
E Electricty gas and water 2.06 1.24 1.22 1.30 1.17 1.12 1.02 1.16
F Construction 6.49 6.93 6.86 6.93 6.93 7.06 6.82 7.18
G Wholesale and retail trade 14.59 13.90 13.79 14.54 14.90 14.69 14.10 13.52
H Hotels and restaurants 1.61 1.63 1.76 1.89 1.94 2.05 2.00 1.98
I Transport, storage and communications 7.87 8.20 8.51 8.90 8.55 8.37 8.08 8.11
J Financial intermediation 2.75 3.88 4.07 3.93 4.36 4.64 5.20 5.40
K Real estate, renting and business activities 8.23 8.23 8.57 8.81 8.40 8.47 9.23 9.90
L Public administration and defence 1.63 1.92 2.13 2.04 2.43 2.61 2.54 3.00
M Education 4.69 5.25 5.69 5.79 6.33 6.56 6.83 7.23
N Health and social work 1.04 1.32 1.42 1.41 1.52 1.67 1.63 1.74
Other community, social and personal service
O activities 2.66 3.64 3.86 3.67 4.04 4.39 4.57 5.09
Annual Growth Rate of GDP by Economic Activities
(at constant prices)
2058/59 2067/68 2068/69 2069/70 2070/71 2071/72 2072/73R 2073/74P
Industrial Classification
2001/02 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
A Agriculture and forestry 3.01 4.49 4.58 1.07 4.54 1.00 -0.19 5.25
B Fishing 8.71 5.88 7.53 2.71 4.90 7.09 11.76 6.86
C Mining and quarrying 8.79 2.01 5.03 1.98 11.85 2.34 -2.78 8.19
D Manufacturing -5.32 4.05 3.63 3.72 6.28 0.37 -8.00 9.70
E Electricty gas and water 11.37 4.43 8.30 0.28 3.27 0.78 -7.40 12.97
F Construction 6.41 4.79 0.22 2.45 9.08 2.85 -4.36 11.66
G Wholesale and retail trade -11.57 1.41 3.50 7.25 10.89 2.42 -2.54 9.76
H Hotels and restaurants -18.23 6.20 7.38 5.50 6.77 3.33 -9.68 7.09
I Transport, storage and communications 8.37 5.21 8.10 7.65 5.24 6.23 2.02 6.50
J Financial intermediation 3.82 3.30 3.47 -0.91 3.70 2.91 8.55 6.72
K Real estate, renting and business activities -4.89 2.25 2.97 5.19 3.64 0.77 3.72 5.27
L Public administration and defence 36.85 3.85 3.67 5.53 5.04 8.84 2.52 9.64
M Education 21.05 3.01 5.58 5.92 4.81 5.09 7.04 4.21
N Health and social work 7.38 5.02 6.43 4.48 4.50 11.37 3.25 6.58
O Other community, social and personal service activities -8.62 7.11 6.36 4.79 4.77 12.52 3.67 5.88
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3.08 4.51 4.63 1.10 4.55 1.10 0.03 5.29
Non-Agriclture -1.06 3.64 4.53 5.01 6.41 3.89 0.16 7.74
Total GVA including FISIM 0.46 3.94 4.57 3.64 5.77 2.95 0.11 6.93
Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured
(FISIM) 10.66 6.14 3.50 0.72 7.10 2.41 2.55 6.62
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices 0.16 3.85 4.61 3.76 5.72 2.97 0.01 6.94
Taxes less subsidies on products -0.47 -1.16 6.68 8.16 8.88 6.93 4.40 12.80
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 0.12 3.42 4.78 4.13 5.99 3.32 0.41 7.50
Review of 9 randomly selected Banks
Banks name under review will not be disclosed,
Sources of information NRB Monthly statistics
Among 9 bank two banks have CCD above 80%,
Some Banks are heavily dependent on short-term call deposits and
institutional deposit (which is about 70% of total deposits),
Some banks maintained nominal fixed deposits,
Impact on Banking
Banks maintaining higher saving deposits will suffer more due to ongoing
interest rate war.
-
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
-
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
18,000.00
20,000.00
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Current
Current
Jan-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Saving
Saving
Apr-16
Bank 3
May-16 May-16
Bank 1
Jun-16 Jun-16
Jul-16 Jul-16
Fixed
Fixed
Aug-16 Aug-16
Sep-16 Sep-16
Oct-16 Oct-16
Call
Call
Nov-16 Nov-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jan-17 Jan-17
Feb-17 Feb-17
Mar-17 Mar-17
Apr-17 Apr-17
-
-
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
18,000.00
Jun-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 Jul-15
Aug-15 Aug-15
Sep-15 Sep-15
Oct-15 Oct-15
Nov-15 Nov-15
Dec-15 Dec-15
Current
Current
Jan-16 Jan-16
Feb-16 Feb-16
Mar-16 Mar-16
Saving
Saving
Apr-16 Apr-16
Bank 4
Bank 2
May-16 May-16
Jun-16 Jun-16
Jul-16 Jul-16
Fixed
Fixed
Aug-16 Aug-16
Sep-16 Sep-16
Oct-16 Oct-16
Call
Call
Nov-16 Nov-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jan-17 Jan-17
Feb-17 Feb-17
Mar-17 Mar-17
Apr-17 Apr-17
-
-
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
Jun-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 Jul-15
Aug-15 Aug-15
Sep-15 Sep-15
Oct-15 Oct-15
Nov-15 Nov-15
Current
Current
Dec-15 Dec-15
Jan-16 Jan-16
Feb-16 Feb-16
Mar-16 Mar-16
Saving
Saving
Apr-16 Apr-16
Bank 7
Bank 5
May-16 May-16
Jun-16 Jun-16
Jul-16 Jul-16
Fixed
Fixed
Aug-16 Aug-16
Sep-16 Sep-16
Oct-16 Oct-16
Call
Call
Nov-16 Nov-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jan-17 Jan-17
Feb-17 Feb-17
Mar-17 Mar-17
Apr-17 Apr-17
-
-
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
45,000.00
Jun-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 Jul-15
Aug-15 Aug-15
Sep-15 Sep-15
Oct-15 Oct-15
Nov-15 Nov-15
Dec-15 Dec-15
Current
Current
Jan-16 Jan-16
Feb-16 Feb-16
Mar-16 Mar-16
Saving
Saving
Apr-16 Apr-16
Bank 8
Bank 6
May-16 May-16
Jun-16 Jun-16
Jul-16 Jul-16
Fixed
Fixed
Aug-16 Aug-16
Sep-16 Sep-16
Call
Call
Oct-16 Oct-16
Nov-16 Nov-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jan-17 Jan-17
Feb-17 Feb-17
Mar-17 Mar-17
Apr-17 Apr-17
Bank 9
60,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00
30,000.00
20,000.00
10,000.00
-
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
1. Private sectors
2. BFIs
3. NRB
4. GON
Monetary policy should
Composition of Deposits
Sudden increase in individual deposits (to the extent of 125 Billion) cannot be
anticipated.
Monetary policy response
Achieve growth target of 7.2%.
Achieve private sector credit growth by 20%.
Contain inflation at 7%,
Increase broad Money supply by 18%.
No changes in Bank rate, CRR and SLR
No changes in CCD ratio (80%)
No changes in Capital Conservation Buffer and Counter Cyclical Buffer (2.5%)
Implementing Prompt Corrective Action as per Basel III.
Disclosure of noncompliance of minimum capital requirement and restrictions
on dividend, Bonus Share distribution, deposits collocation and force merger.
Monetary policy response
Maintain interest rate corridor of two weeks repo and deposit collection at
5 and 3 percent respectively.
Zero interest loan of 10 million for operating branches at remote location
and addition loan of 10 million for opening 2,500 Accounts on such
location.
Increased refinancing amount to 20 billion without changing refinancing
rate.
Refinancing at 1% for against small and medium commercial loan at certain
districts of province 2 and 7.
Increase mandatory credit exposure limit for priority sector lending to 25%.
Issuing guideline on Environmental and Social Risk Management.
Issuing NFRS Migration Guidelines to Banks & Financial Institutions to
implement NFRS
Monetary policy response
Mandatory use of account payee cheque for all transactions above
one million.
Obtaining Credit Information of all loan without any limit.
Implementing National Small Value Payment Strategy.
Improving Financial Technology (FinTech) and developing Regulatory
Technology (RegTech).
Limiting use of IRN through the use of ATM or electronic method.
Approval for repartition of dividend up to 100 million is exempted.
Way Forwards
Central banks acquire a dual role:
1. To assess the conditions at hand and make as sound decisions as their
information and skills allow;
2. To inform and convince the public about the value of their intentions.